1 00:00:00,560 --> 00:00:03,280 Speaker 1: Welcome back, everybody. It's the Betting Pros College Football Show. 2 00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:03,760 Speaker 2: I'm your host. 3 00:00:03,840 --> 00:00:06,640 Speaker 1: Scott Bogman followed me on the Twitter at Bogman Sports. 4 00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:08,200 Speaker 2: I am joined as. 5 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:11,880 Speaker 1: Always by the you know, the the Pride of Kansas 6 00:00:12,080 --> 00:00:15,040 Speaker 1: at Thor k you on the Twitter machine. It is 7 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:19,040 Speaker 1: Thor and Eystrom. Your Jayhawks are rolling. Look, I hated 8 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:20,880 Speaker 1: it last year when they burned me. I went all 9 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 1: the way out to Austin to see my Longhorns play. 10 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:25,640 Speaker 1: The Jayhawks upset him on a two point conversion at 11 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 1: the end of the game when Texas climbed back into 12 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:31,520 Speaker 1: it after being down. But hey, they're making me money 13 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 1: this year, so we like them. I think we're gonna 14 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 1: ride that over again for Kansas this week. But Thor, 15 00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:40,720 Speaker 1: you gotta be doing pretty good watching your Jayhawks year. 16 00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 1: How's how's Week four treating you so far? 17 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,559 Speaker 3: Any any weekend Jayhawk football wins, it's a good weekend. 18 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 3: And of course, the better team won last year in Austin, 19 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:52,520 Speaker 3: and the better team certainly won yes or a couple 20 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 3: of days ago when they played Houston, just like it 21 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 3: did when they played West Virginia. So hoping Kansas can 22 00:00:57,920 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 3: keep it rolling. Their three and oh just like Thomas 23 00:00:59,880 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 3: the producer Syracuse Orange or three in all, and now 24 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:07,600 Speaker 3: Kansas gets Duke. So yeah, crossing the fingers, crossing the fingers. 25 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 1: And my loser team is the only one ranked out 26 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 1: of that bunch, and we're two and one. So you know, 27 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 1: played Alabama Hart but obviously I couldn't get it done. 28 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 1: But as always, we're gonna start with the Thursday and 29 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 1: Friday games. We're gonna tell you where the cash is 30 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 1: on some of these games. We got a decent amount 31 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 1: of spreads and a couple over unders. Then we'll hit 32 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 1: the top five big games of the week and then 33 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 1: talk about thor's differences. So let's start out with these 34 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:36,679 Speaker 1: Thursday and Friday games. We have six, but only five 35 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:39,400 Speaker 1: are on the slate. In terms of betting, I believe 36 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 1: Illinois plays like Chattanooga. Yeah, so there's no real line 37 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:47,039 Speaker 1: in that game. So start out with Coastal minus two 38 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 1: at Georgia State the over and that one is sixty 39 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 1: one and a half. We got WVU minus point and 40 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 1: a half on the road at Virginia Tech. That one 41 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 1: has kind of gone back and forth. Virginia at Syracuse 42 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 1: Syracuse is minus eight and a half the overs fifty 43 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 1: two and a half in that game. That one is 44 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 1: on Friday, Nevada air Force. Another Friday matchup, air Force 45 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 1: a twenty four point home favorite. I guess Nevada Nevada 46 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:12,400 Speaker 1: has looked terrible forty five is the over in that game? 47 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:15,359 Speaker 1: And Boise State fifteen and a half point road favorites 48 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:17,640 Speaker 1: on the road against UTEP forty five and a half? 49 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:18,799 Speaker 2: Is he over in that game? 50 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 1: Or do you have any strong leans name of these 51 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:24,799 Speaker 1: Thursday Friday games? What are you looking at in this 52 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 1: grouping here? 53 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure, let's take them day by day on Thursday. 54 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 3: It's interesting because sharpbetters they love two of this, so 55 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 3: they love both these games one particular side. I agree 56 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 3: with them on one of them, and I don't agree 57 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 3: with them on the other one. The side where I 58 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 3: agree with the sharp betters is Virginia Tech. I think 59 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 3: that's the objectively right side. Virginia Tech Day. Some things 60 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 3: they have not done very well this year. Other things 61 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:57,400 Speaker 3: they're doing better, And I think they might be a 62 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 3: little bit better than people think. You know, people are 63 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 3: having a hard time getting it out of their head. 64 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 3: Them getting upset by old dominion in that first game. Yeah, 65 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:09,920 Speaker 3: And I think it's just they're not bad. Yeah. I 66 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:12,920 Speaker 3: mean they almost almost upset Virginia last week, you know, 67 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 3: for instance. And I think All Dominion's gonna win this 68 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 3: week handily too. But we'll get to that later on maybe. 69 00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:22,080 Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean, I've not been impressed with West 70 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 3: Virginia on any of my viewings. I came into the 71 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 3: season lower on West Virginia than other folks. The one 72 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 3: thing that West Virginia has shown that they can do 73 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 3: decently well on offense this year is generate explosive runs. 74 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:36,880 Speaker 3: But when the passing game isn't at least getting the 75 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 3: short completions, that bogs down too. They have to be 76 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 3: completing the passes to get teams away from from starting 77 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:46,760 Speaker 3: to stack the box against some that Donaldson kid just 78 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 3: came out of nowhere. The problem has been West Virginia's 79 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 3: passing offense has not been as good I think as 80 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 3: some people had hoped. JT. Daniels, who has been run 81 00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 3: out of his last two starting jobs. He has not 82 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 3: refound the five star pedigree that came out with, and 83 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 3: they don't have a really good receiving core. There's been 84 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 3: a lot of drops with West Virginia so far this year, 85 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:09,200 Speaker 3: so I question whether they can pass the ball effectively 86 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 3: enough against West Virginia to open up the opportunities to 87 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:16,360 Speaker 3: get those chunk runs disincentivized Virginia Tech from putting people 88 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 3: in the box, et cetera. Virginia Tech that what they're 89 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 3: best at. It's their defense. They struggle a little bit 90 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:26,040 Speaker 3: on offense, of course, but if they can play the 91 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 3: low scoring, grinded out games, I mean, that's what they 92 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 3: want to do, and I think that they're going to 93 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 3: be able to get that here. I also like the 94 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 3: under probably, like you probably think that my adjusted total 95 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 3: in the game is forty one and a half, it's 96 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:44,279 Speaker 3: fifty two and a half live. So to me, I'm 97 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:46,800 Speaker 3: seeing more of a low scoring game that Virginia Tech 98 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 3: pulls out at the end of the game. My adjust 99 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:52,920 Speaker 3: side on that game is Virginia Tech minus three point eight. 100 00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:56,599 Speaker 3: So I have the other team favorite. So I like 101 00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 3: Virginia Tech to pull you know, the small upset. I 102 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 3: won't consider an upset, but I think Virginia Tech is 103 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 3: gonna win the and the you know, like I was 104 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:07,040 Speaker 3: alluding to the sharps are on Virginia Tech and Mass 105 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 3: In that game. The Sharps are also in mass on 106 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 3: Georgia State. You know the game that kicks off. Oh, 107 00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:15,120 Speaker 3: it looks like the exact same time. I hate when 108 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 3: they do that on the Thursday nights. Give us give 109 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 3: us a split. 110 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 2: Look. 111 00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 1: I gotta I gotta be honest, store, My Steelers are 112 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 1: playing tomorrow, so I won't. You know, I'll have it 113 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 1: on the second screen. But I know, and my family knows, 114 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 1: and my neighbors know that I'll be screaming at my 115 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 1: television for Pittsburgh. But I'll take a look at it. 116 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:35,919 Speaker 1: But yeah, I don't like it when they do that. 117 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:38,160 Speaker 1: Either give us a late game or an early game, 118 00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 1: just separate them a little bit. They even did that 119 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:42,640 Speaker 1: on Monday Night Football, by the way, with those two 120 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 1: games starting in the middle of each other. 121 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:45,280 Speaker 2: I don't like that either. 122 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 3: Like I prefer that though you don't prefer yeah, I mean, 123 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:51,080 Speaker 3: because then they're not ending at the same time. The 124 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 3: progression is different. 125 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:54,560 Speaker 1: You can well, no, no, no, but but I would 126 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 1: rather have one finish and then pick up the other one, 127 00:05:57,120 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 1: you know what I mean, kind of like they do 128 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:01,520 Speaker 1: NBA playoff games, like let them finished and then do 129 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 1: the other one. 130 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 3: Would you rather have it? Would you rather have the 131 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:06,279 Speaker 3: time stagger to start or at the exact same time? 132 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:07,760 Speaker 2: Oh, definitely Stagg. 133 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:13,559 Speaker 3: Who feels the same way apparently one for sure. 134 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 2: But do you have a you have a lean in this? Yeah, 135 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:18,880 Speaker 2: in Georgia State. 136 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 3: In that one, I would be lean. So so the 137 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 3: first one is a bet for me. I am on 138 00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 3: Virginia attack. I I like Virginia attack. This one. I 139 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:30,039 Speaker 3: lean the other way, but from where the sharp money 140 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:32,719 Speaker 3: is going. But I'm not going to bet it because 141 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:35,200 Speaker 3: I you know, I respect the sharp money. They might 142 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:37,919 Speaker 3: be seeing something that I'm not seeing. But I like 143 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:40,279 Speaker 3: Coastal Carolina in this game. You know, you have a 144 00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 3: three and oh team against an O and three team, 145 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 3: and yet the majority of the money is coming in 146 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 3: on the oh and three team, even though the more 147 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 3: tickets have been bought on on Coastal Carolina. But the 148 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:53,719 Speaker 3: Sharps were also on Georgia State last week when they 149 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 3: they definitely didn't cover I'm trying to remember who they 150 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:59,719 Speaker 3: were playing, but the shar The Sharps seemed to believe 151 00:06:59,839 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 3: very much Charlotte to st Yeah, so they were on them, 152 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:06,040 Speaker 3: and I think they might have even been on Georgia 153 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 3: State the week before as well, and we had talked 154 00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 3: in our discard thing about how Chris Reynold's coming back 155 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 3: change the equation for Charlotte. So maybe you don't blame 156 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 3: the Sharps for not knowing he was going to be 157 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:18,040 Speaker 3: back by It seems like that's a team where the 158 00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 3: Sharps have been higher on them throughout the season so 159 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 3: far and remain so now that sharp's very clearly, you know, 160 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 3: I mean, you know, not all of them, you know, 161 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:29,880 Speaker 3: I mean, you know, however many there are, I'm sure 162 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 3: it's not completely uniform, but by the numbers, that's where 163 00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:37,280 Speaker 3: the money is coming in on on Georgia State. But again, 164 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:40,440 Speaker 3: Georgia State hasn't looked great this year. Definitely not as 165 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 3: good as we thought they would be, you know, I mean, 166 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 3: like I think some people were hoping that they could 167 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 3: sort of emerge near the top of that sun belt. 168 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:48,920 Speaker 3: You know, we we had seen the growth of that 169 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:51,840 Speaker 3: program under Sean Elliott, and they were bringing so many 170 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 3: guys back and stuff like that. But the quarterback hasn't 171 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 3: looked good in the limited exposure that I've gotten to him. 172 00:07:57,520 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 3: There's been some accuracy, a version there and when the 173 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 3: passing game is not going, the running game is played down. 174 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 3: They also haven't played as good on defense. It's the 175 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 3: reason that they're on three. They also have injury concerns 176 00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 3: in this game. It's there's too many guys to list. 177 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:14,080 Speaker 3: But Georgia State has like five key contributors that are 178 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:16,760 Speaker 3: questionable right now, and I don't know if they're gonna 179 00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:18,240 Speaker 3: play or not, or if they do, are they going 180 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 3: to be compromised, et cetera. Coastal Carolina was the team 181 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:24,960 Speaker 3: that lost everybody over the offseason except for Grayson McCall. 182 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 3: But you know, we see what they've done in the past. 183 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 3: You were just sort of in the early season trying 184 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 3: to get sort of a read on how good that 185 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 3: team is. Now, we'll have a better idea coming out 186 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 3: a Thursday night. But I like Coastal Carolina more heading 187 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:40,960 Speaker 3: in than Georgia's State. But you know, again, just because 188 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:43,599 Speaker 3: of what the market's telling me and my experience with this, 189 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:46,200 Speaker 3: I'm not going to bet that out of respect for 190 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:49,559 Speaker 3: some of these sharp players, but I would lean Coastal Carolina. 191 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 1: All right, what do you like in the Friday games? 192 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 1: Like we mentioned before, we've got Virginia at Syracuse, Nevada 193 00:08:57,360 --> 00:08:59,480 Speaker 1: Air Force, Boise State at UTAP and look, if you 194 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 1: don't have a good lean, we can skip them. But 195 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 1: do you like anything for Friday Night? 196 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 3: I got one bet on Friday Night and the other 197 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:10,000 Speaker 3: two I have what I would feel like are legitimate leans, 198 00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 3: even though I haven't met them yet. I like Syracuse 199 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 3: a lot on you know, in the first one. That 200 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 3: game kicks off at six pm Central, seven pm Eastern. 201 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:21,200 Speaker 3: And I'm not just saying that because Thomas is producing 202 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 3: and he'll make my screen go black if I if 203 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 3: I go the other way with Virginia. But I don't 204 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:30,319 Speaker 3: understand why this line is not already in the double digits. 205 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:33,200 Speaker 3: It seemed like, you know, it opened at Syracuse minus eight, 206 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 3: and I was talking on the Sunday Show with Thomas, 207 00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 3: this thing's going to be double digits in a blink, 208 00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 3: and it actually was like it toggled up to like 209 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:44,720 Speaker 3: minus ten on Monday. But it's weird because there's been 210 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:47,360 Speaker 3: a little buyback since then. And I don't know who's 211 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:49,840 Speaker 3: betting on Virginia. I don't know what you could have 212 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 3: seen of Virginia to this point to be confident in them. 213 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 3: Virginia has very clearly taken numerous steps down since the 214 00:09:57,120 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 3: end of last season. Lost the coaching staff, They lost 215 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 3: their entire offensive line, a couple of them to graduation. 216 00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:06,120 Speaker 3: The rest of them just up and left. You know, 217 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:09,320 Speaker 3: the center went to Michigan and etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. So 218 00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 3: you had to you had to replace the coach, Jeff, 219 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:14,520 Speaker 3: You had to replace the entire offensive line. The defense 220 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:17,160 Speaker 3: already wasn't very good. You were just sort of hanging 221 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 3: your hat on the idea that they had a star 222 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 3: quarterback in Brennan Armstrong and then four NFL receivers. Well, 223 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 3: the problem so far is the offensive line is so leaky. 224 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 3: On the Virginia side, Armstrong can't even sit back there 225 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 3: and survey for the receivers. He's getting pressure immediately. They're 226 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:39,040 Speaker 3: running running game, which wasn't good before, it's still not good. 227 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 3: And so it's like this one dimensional offense who is 228 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 3: being extremely handicapped by the offensive line that they're playing behind. 229 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:49,080 Speaker 3: It has taken, you know, sort of taking the wings 230 00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:53,000 Speaker 3: off of the aerial attack. And then on the Syracuse side, 231 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:55,760 Speaker 3: you tell me how Virginia is going to defend this offense. 232 00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:58,560 Speaker 3: I don't know how they defend either the running game 233 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 3: of Schrader and Tucker. I think they're going to run 234 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:02,959 Speaker 3: all over them. I also don't know how Virginia is 235 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 3: gonna defend the sideline of sideline passing game, which Syracuse 236 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:08,440 Speaker 3: did not. I mean, they had the dominant run offense before. 237 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:11,080 Speaker 3: Now they have the sideline to sideline passing game as well. 238 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:13,400 Speaker 3: I don't know how Virginia is going to defend any 239 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:15,960 Speaker 3: of it. My ad justed line on this game is 240 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:19,959 Speaker 3: Syracuse minus twelve point eight. I don't need to me personally. 241 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 3: I don't even think that goes far enough. If I 242 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:23,760 Speaker 3: was to send this line, it would be more like 243 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:27,040 Speaker 3: Syracuse minus fourteen minus fourteen and a half. If you 244 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 3: can get Syracuse in the single digits, absolutely by the ticket. 245 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 1: All right, let's go to some games with an enormous 246 00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 1: amount of cash on one side, and thora I wrote 247 00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 1: on the sheet. 248 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:40,920 Speaker 2: It's in the private chat there. 249 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:43,760 Speaker 1: I put the tickets on there as well, so you 250 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:47,000 Speaker 1: can see where all of these games are. We're going 251 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:51,120 Speaker 1: to start with UCF minus twenty versus Georgia Tech that's 252 00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:54,559 Speaker 1: got ninety nine percent of the cash on it, which 253 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 1: was just a crazy amount. 254 00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:57,360 Speaker 2: Usually just don't see that. 255 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:03,640 Speaker 1: Uga minus forty five has considerable amount of cash on that. 256 00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 1: Utah at Arizona State. Of course, Arizona State just firing 257 00:12:07,640 --> 00:12:10,680 Speaker 1: Herman Edwards has an enormous amount of cash. That one 258 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 1: is actually much closer on the tickets. Georgia and Utah 259 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 1: much closer on the tickets. Is a big discrepancy in 260 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:21,040 Speaker 1: UCF Utah minus or excuse me, Memphis minus eleven and 261 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:24,199 Speaker 1: a half versus North Texas has got a big chunk 262 00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:27,600 Speaker 1: that's a little closer in the tickets than normal. Auburn 263 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:30,720 Speaker 1: minus seven against Missouri has a massive amount of cash. 264 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 1: Georgia Southern minus ten versus Ball State as well in 265 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 1: unlv at Utah State minus two and a half has 266 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:41,000 Speaker 1: a big amount of tickets. 267 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:42,320 Speaker 2: So when you look at. 268 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 1: Those games, is there one or two that you either 269 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 1: love you're definitely on the cash side, or that you 270 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:51,720 Speaker 1: just despise and you say, how can we be laying 271 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:55,200 Speaker 1: this many points? Because there's no underdogs in this that 272 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:59,800 Speaker 1: are getting the cash. It's all favorite. So a lot 273 00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 1: of people think that these teams are just going to 274 00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:02,800 Speaker 1: absolutely dominate. 275 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 3: There's a couple of these that I've already bet and 276 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:09,760 Speaker 3: then there's a couple that I have leans on that. 277 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:13,040 Speaker 3: Let me ask you first that the UCF Georgia Tech. 278 00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 3: So that's ninety nine percent of the money is on UCF, 279 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 3: but only fifty two of the tickets. Is that what 280 00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 3: it is? Yes? 281 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's uh, I mean that's what I saw yesterday. 282 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:24,959 Speaker 3: So yeah, the uh that one. 283 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:27,000 Speaker 2: Let me give you an updated number on that one. 284 00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:30,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, for it real and as you are, you know, 285 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 3: I'll just sort of fill the audience in and we 286 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 3: talked a little bit about this one on on the discord, 287 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:38,120 Speaker 3: uh that we do right before this where. 288 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 2: Ninety six it hasn't moved a bunch. 289 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:45,160 Speaker 3: Wow. Yeah, the UCF, not only, of course, are they 290 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:49,000 Speaker 3: the objectively better team, and not only do you wonder 291 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 3: about Georgia Tech's mindset and how their effort is going 292 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 3: to be in this game because the Jeff Collins era 293 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:59,079 Speaker 3: we have reached just about midnight when he turns into 294 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 3: a pumpkin. I don't know if it's gonna happen after 295 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:04,920 Speaker 3: this game, the game after that, we'll see. We've had 296 00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:08,360 Speaker 3: one coach firing each of the last two Sundays. Are 297 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:12,720 Speaker 3: we're gonna get Jeff Collins On on Sunday, We'll have 298 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 3: to see it's it's it's definitely in play. Uh Jeordia Tech. 299 00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 3: They're a team that doesn't do anything good. But the 300 00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:22,560 Speaker 3: thing that they're objectively the worst at it's defending the run. 301 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 3: That's what you see. It's by far what UCF does 302 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:29,480 Speaker 3: the best. Uh you know, I mean UCF has. The 303 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:32,800 Speaker 3: quarterback is very much John Rey's plumbley, very much in 304 00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 3: line with the quarterbacks that how do I put this? 305 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:40,240 Speaker 3: Gusmells On fetishizes he's like sort of in the same 306 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 3: bucket as like a Nick Marshall, where it's like, you know, 307 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:45,200 Speaker 3: I mean, you know, like they they you know, I 308 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:47,440 Speaker 3: burnet Cam Newton for the one year, but like with 309 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 3: you know exactly it's it's it's a guy with who 310 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 3: can scramble, who can also he has a little bit 311 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 3: of arm strength, and his biggest weakness by far is accuracy. 312 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 3: Gus has always been to work with those guys. 313 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:03,240 Speaker 2: That's just the easiest. 314 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:06,880 Speaker 1: I'll fix them, you know, Uh, they've got the arm, 315 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 1: they've got the wheels. 316 00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:09,280 Speaker 2: I'll fix the accuracy. 317 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 1: That's like that's the arrogance of most coaches, is I 318 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 1: can fix anybody, right. 319 00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:17,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, And and I think you know the way Gus 320 00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 3: sees it is when my running game is humming, and 321 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:22,240 Speaker 3: if I have a quarterback like that, it will be 322 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:24,680 Speaker 3: because his offensive lines are typically good, the running back 323 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:27,600 Speaker 3: talent is typically good, the running back room is typically deep. 324 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:30,960 Speaker 3: That that once that thing gets rolling downhill and they 325 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:33,480 Speaker 3: start playing the tempo and it's like six yard run, 326 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:35,600 Speaker 3: they sprint back to the line, snap it right away, 327 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:37,920 Speaker 3: five yard run and then you know, stuff like that. 328 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 3: The defense gets on their heels and then that's when 329 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 3: you open up the passing game. So you can sort 330 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 3: of solder over some of the accuracy limitations just by 331 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:49,600 Speaker 3: getting the defense on their heels and all of a sudden, 332 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:51,160 Speaker 3: we do the quick pass off to the left, you know, 333 00:15:51,560 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 3: et cetera. Gus we talked and you know in the 334 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:58,680 Speaker 3: previous show about how Gus had some very weird play 335 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:02,160 Speaker 3: calling tendencies against Louis that may have cost UCF that game, 336 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 3: But that was a game where UCF was trailing by 337 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 3: a possession or whatever for a large part of it. 338 00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:10,320 Speaker 3: You wouldn't anticipate that they're going to be trailing against 339 00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 3: Georgia Tech. So the game script that you need to 340 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:15,360 Speaker 3: get the blowout would seem to be right there for 341 00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 3: you where because once UCF gets that double digital lead, 342 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:22,160 Speaker 3: that's when they become crazy scary because now it's the 343 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 3: sprint back to the line and they're run and run 344 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 3: and running, et cetera. They don't have to put John 345 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 3: Reeve's plumb lee back in the pocket and ask him 346 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:31,080 Speaker 3: to survey, which is what they did way too much 347 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:33,640 Speaker 3: against Louisvillan. Again, in my opinion, that gave the game 348 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 3: away through that they match up well here. But this 349 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:40,640 Speaker 3: is a very big number, especially when you're not crazy 350 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:43,360 Speaker 3: confident in UCF. But there's no chance I would bet 351 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:45,080 Speaker 3: Georgia Tech in that game. If I had to bet, 352 00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:47,000 Speaker 3: I would definitely be leaning in UCF. 353 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 1: Are there any other games out of this group that 354 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:54,040 Speaker 1: you have a good lean on between? Yeah, the Jive 355 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:58,320 Speaker 1: Utah Lane fourteen, Memphis eleven and a half, Auburn seven, 356 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 1: Georgia Southern ten, and you don't beat two and a half. 357 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 3: So that I have one on this group of games. 358 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:07,919 Speaker 3: I have one ticket purchased so far. Uh. That ticket 359 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:10,160 Speaker 3: was on Auburn minus six and a half. It's now 360 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:13,840 Speaker 3: ticked up to seven. I totally understand that. I think 361 00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 3: that the line, this line is going to be above 362 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 3: seven by the time it kicks, who knows, maybe even 363 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 3: by the time we get off, you know, get off 364 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:25,199 Speaker 3: the recording. It it opened low because nobody wants to 365 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:28,399 Speaker 3: bet on Brian Harrison, and everybody expects Brian Harson not 366 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 3: to be their coach next year. I understand all that. 367 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 3: I also, you know, we talked about this before, but 368 00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:36,880 Speaker 3: Brian Harson's game plan in the last game against Penn 369 00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:39,480 Speaker 3: State was one of the dumbest things that I seen 370 00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 3: all season. It was even dumber than Gus letting Plumby 371 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:44,720 Speaker 3: throw thirty three times in a close game against Louisville 372 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:49,560 Speaker 3: where Penn State's defense they really really struggle tackling. They're 373 00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 3: they're tackling conversion rates bottom ten in the country. And 374 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:54,439 Speaker 3: Auburn did not give the ball to the guy who 375 00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:57,360 Speaker 3: is the hardest to tackle on their sideline, Tank Bigsby, 376 00:17:57,600 --> 00:17:59,399 Speaker 3: touched the ball eleven times in that game. It just 377 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:02,160 Speaker 3: made absolute no sense. Yeah, the game was just getting 378 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:05,120 Speaker 3: away from Auburn, and Harson seemed to be panicking more 379 00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:08,560 Speaker 3: and more as it did. This game. You know, we 380 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:11,280 Speaker 3: talk about like the game scripts and what that facilitates. 381 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:14,440 Speaker 3: You would not expect Missouri to be able to ambush 382 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:18,720 Speaker 3: Auburn in this spot. Missouri has bad quarterback play Number one. 383 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 3: The receiving room is not as good as people wanted 384 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:25,639 Speaker 3: it to be. Yet, you know, they had signed Luther Burden, 385 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,080 Speaker 3: the five star receiver. I think people thought he'd come 386 00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:30,159 Speaker 3: in right away and be like the college version of 387 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:33,479 Speaker 3: Randy Moss. He's not playing well so far. Like I mean, 388 00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 3: he's playing and he's getting some catches, but like you know, 389 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,119 Speaker 3: on a personal basis, it hasn't been the best. That 390 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:43,680 Speaker 3: the routes are clearly not totally polished yet, the ball 391 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 3: scales need a little bit of work, et cetera. The 392 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:48,159 Speaker 3: rest of their receiving core is not that great. It's 393 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:50,320 Speaker 3: a bunch of cast sass from other schools or else 394 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 3: guys that were stuck you know, on the depth chart 395 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:55,119 Speaker 3: like earlier in their careers, et cetera. And then the 396 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:57,840 Speaker 3: running game they I mean, that's what last year they 397 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 3: funneled all the touches to Tyler Bade, both in the 398 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,760 Speaker 3: running game and also in the receiving game. Tyler Baty, 399 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:06,840 Speaker 3: of course, is now on the Baltimore Ravens that Missouri 400 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:09,480 Speaker 3: now has gone to this like they're rotating like three 401 00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:12,480 Speaker 3: different guys in It's Nathaniel Pete and then like two 402 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,040 Speaker 3: other kids, two other lower profile kids that they didn't 403 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:18,359 Speaker 3: sign in the portal. I don't love that offense. I 404 00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:20,880 Speaker 3: don't love their offensive line either, and I certainly don't 405 00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:24,159 Speaker 3: like Missouri's defense. You would like to think that that 406 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:27,439 Speaker 3: Harson now going back to the Auburn side, that Harson 407 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:30,119 Speaker 3: is going to listen to all the criticisms over you 408 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 3: know that he's been hearing for the last three or 409 00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:35,360 Speaker 3: four days, not about him personally, but about game planning. 410 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:39,320 Speaker 3: Get the friggin' ball to Tank Bigsby. If Tank Bigsby 411 00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:41,440 Speaker 3: has twenty or more touches in this game, I'm telling 412 00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:44,800 Speaker 3: you Auburn is going to cover. I do. I do 413 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 3: like Auburn for all those reasons. My line is also 414 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,800 Speaker 3: closer to Auburn minus ten. Auburn's defense is really good. 415 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:55,280 Speaker 3: That that hasn't changed there, and unlike Penn State, they're 416 00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:58,359 Speaker 3: reliable tackling. Penn State might have more dudes, you know, 417 00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:00,880 Speaker 3: in terms of athletes and stuff like that, but overall 418 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:03,639 Speaker 3: over the entire body of work. Auburn has been at 419 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:06,080 Speaker 3: least more reliable with their run fits and then converting 420 00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:09,840 Speaker 3: the tackles. Missouri doesn't have the singular athletes that the 421 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:13,520 Speaker 3: Penn State offense had where, yeah, you know where they 422 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:15,879 Speaker 3: could start out running people once they got into space 423 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:19,399 Speaker 3: between Singleton and a couple of those receivers. Missouri doesn't 424 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:22,159 Speaker 3: have guys like that. So I like Auburn to control 425 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:24,760 Speaker 3: that game and to win by double digits in a 426 00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:27,800 Speaker 3: get right game for Brian Harson that he badly needs. 427 00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 3: It's not just that the context of the short term. 428 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,240 Speaker 3: If you look at the rest of Auburn's schedule after 429 00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,720 Speaker 3: this Missouri game, it is about as grizzly of a 430 00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:38,919 Speaker 3: schedule as you're going to see, you know, for the 431 00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:42,160 Speaker 3: last eight games or whatever it is. Brian Harson needs 432 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:44,240 Speaker 3: this game to keep his job. He I don't think 433 00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 3: he'll get fired if he loses it, but he's going 434 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:48,440 Speaker 3: to lose a whole bunch of those last eight games. 435 00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:50,479 Speaker 3: So this is a must have and they know it. 436 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,520 Speaker 3: I do like Auburn in that one. The other ones 437 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:56,760 Speaker 3: for me are more leans or else thought experiments. I 438 00:20:56,800 --> 00:21:00,679 Speaker 3: guess I would say I have thought about I almost 439 00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:02,760 Speaker 3: don't even want to admit this one. This is one 440 00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:04,720 Speaker 3: of the bets that stinks. So it's not just to 441 00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:07,520 Speaker 3: hold your nose game. It stinks so much that I 442 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:10,399 Speaker 3: don't even want to admit publicly that I've been thinking 443 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:13,200 Speaker 3: about betting on this team, and I actually still might. 444 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:15,160 Speaker 3: It won't be in my column, but I actually might 445 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 3: have a bet on this team live and again, of 446 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:21,920 Speaker 3: trepidacious to say it, but I'm absolutely considering betting on 447 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:25,439 Speaker 3: Arizona State against Utah. I can't believe I'm saying it, 448 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:27,439 Speaker 3: But where the line is going. 449 00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 2: These games go either way. After you fire a coach. 450 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:32,280 Speaker 1: You talked about the dead cat bounce and all of 451 00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:36,200 Speaker 1: that before, these games go one of two ways where 452 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 1: it's either they get slaughtered, you know, because their coach 453 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:42,399 Speaker 1: has gone and they're upset and they have not putting 454 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,639 Speaker 1: forth the effort, or they go out there and they 455 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:49,200 Speaker 1: play way better expected. Because this was a long time coming, 456 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:53,879 Speaker 1: and the Herm Edwards one was just so clear and 457 00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 1: obvious that this was going to happen as soon as 458 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,360 Speaker 1: they had an embarrassing loss happening against East Michigan. 459 00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,200 Speaker 2: Goodbye her So yeah. 460 00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:04,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, well it was quite obvious to the twenty plus 461 00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:06,880 Speaker 3: guys that left in the transfer portal from Arizona over 462 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,480 Speaker 3: the offseason, maybe not as clear to the guys that 463 00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:12,399 Speaker 3: Herm ended up signing to replace them. I'm sure Herm was, 464 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:14,560 Speaker 3: you know, sort of selling like I'm gonna be here 465 00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:17,960 Speaker 3: for your entire time. But yeah, I mean, you saw 466 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:21,040 Speaker 3: between the defections the coaches have and the roster where 467 00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:23,920 Speaker 3: that thing was going, and then you know, they had 468 00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:26,679 Speaker 3: so many different new players, which made it even harder 469 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,639 Speaker 3: for her at the beginning of the season. Doesn't excuse 470 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,080 Speaker 3: the EMU thing at all, and it turned out to 471 00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:34,560 Speaker 3: be the h what would you call it, the anvil 472 00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,800 Speaker 3: that broke herms back in this case where it didn't 473 00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 3: really seem like the guy that hired him, the Ray 474 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 3: Edwards whatever or Ray Anderson right the ad whatever his 475 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 3: name is, he didn't really care about the scandal so 476 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,159 Speaker 3: much as losing to EMU. You know, like he just 477 00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 3: let Herm survive that thing until they lost the EMU 478 00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,719 Speaker 3: and then it looks like Anderson fired Herm Edwards when 479 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:56,480 Speaker 3: he was literally walking off the field. 480 00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 2: I think they said, I think they were in that meeting. 481 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 1: They're like we're gonna have him tomorrow, and maybe. 482 00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:06,440 Speaker 3: I would love to have the audio avoid he caught 483 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:08,240 Speaker 3: up to her and walking off the field. We got 484 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,320 Speaker 3: the video, we don't have the audio. It's possible that 485 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:13,000 Speaker 3: he was fired right then. If not, I think the 486 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 3: AD already knew he was going to get fired. But 487 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:16,520 Speaker 3: as far as this game, going back to your point, 488 00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,639 Speaker 3: if there's anyone out there that has against the spread 489 00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:22,119 Speaker 3: data of the week after a coach gets fired in 490 00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 3: college football going back years and years, please reach out 491 00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,960 Speaker 3: to me on Twitter. My handle is at thor Ku. 492 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:30,760 Speaker 3: My dms are open, Please send it to me. I 493 00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:33,439 Speaker 3: was looking around mostly because I'm too lazy to go 494 00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 3: case by case beyond last year. I can tell you 495 00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:40,040 Speaker 3: last year, I wasn't too lazy to accrue those numbers. 496 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:43,359 Speaker 3: Last year it was even it was like there was 497 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:45,920 Speaker 3: like twelve instances of this or ten it was something 498 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,679 Speaker 3: like that, but it was five hundred against the spread. 499 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:50,720 Speaker 3: It was like six and six against the spread for 500 00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:54,320 Speaker 3: the team. Of course, Nebraska last week. Talking about the 501 00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 3: Sharps being wrong, they were wrong on Nebraska last week. 502 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,720 Speaker 3: All the Sharks were on Nebraska last weekend that game, 503 00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:04,000 Speaker 3: they they were They had a ticket bonfire in the 504 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:06,120 Speaker 3: second court early in the second quarter of that game. 505 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,679 Speaker 3: It was over Nebraska. You didn't get the bounce up 506 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:13,600 Speaker 3: performance with Arizona State. We'll see if we get it. 507 00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:16,600 Speaker 3: It's certainly possible, but I think that the real point, 508 00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,199 Speaker 3: at least with recent history, until I can get some 509 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,800 Speaker 3: historical data if anyone else is a crew to my 510 00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:27,439 Speaker 3: working theory on this is don't don't don't. Don't rotely 511 00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:29,600 Speaker 3: go one way or the other of just assuming that 512 00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:31,320 Speaker 3: the team that just fired its coach is going to 513 00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:33,840 Speaker 3: continue to be awful, nor should you consider that they're 514 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:36,840 Speaker 3: going to play way up the next week. It remains. 515 00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:39,200 Speaker 2: Like everything. 516 00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:43,000 Speaker 3: Like everything, it all depends on the handicap in question. 517 00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:48,760 Speaker 3: In this one, I am showing value on Arizona State objectively, 518 00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 3: even though I toggle them down in my power rankings. 519 00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,280 Speaker 3: My line on this game is Utah minus nine point 520 00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:58,119 Speaker 3: one and and now the the line was up to 521 00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:00,480 Speaker 3: sixteen and a half at one point. Maybe it's down 522 00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:02,639 Speaker 3: to fifteen and a half or fifteen right now, but 523 00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:06,800 Speaker 3: over the two touchdowns, objectively, that is too many points 524 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:10,040 Speaker 3: to give. It seems like a reaction to Oklahoma smoking 525 00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:12,960 Speaker 3: Nebraska last week, even though that doesn't have anything to 526 00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 3: do with this game or people wanting to be out 527 00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 3: on Arizona State. And look, nobody loves Utah more than me. 528 00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,439 Speaker 3: Nobody was banging the drum more for Utah. Nobody liked 529 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:23,680 Speaker 3: Utah more In the opener against Florida's still passed that. 530 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:26,200 Speaker 3: I didn't get the cover in that one, But I 531 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:28,720 Speaker 3: do like Utah as a team. This doesn't have anything 532 00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:30,600 Speaker 3: to do with Utah. This has to do with the 533 00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:33,200 Speaker 3: line going way above what it should be just because 534 00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:35,440 Speaker 3: of the circumstance of the week, when we know at 535 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,920 Speaker 3: least over the last year and a half with the data, 536 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:41,439 Speaker 3: it doesn't affect it one way or the other. I 537 00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:43,760 Speaker 3: mean the right around five hundred. As far as the 538 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:46,560 Speaker 3: week after you fire or your coach, I would absolutely 539 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:49,200 Speaker 3: lean Arizona State. With where this line has gotten. They 540 00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:52,159 Speaker 3: tacked like eight points onto that after Arizona State fired 541 00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:55,520 Speaker 3: Herm Edwards. HERM Edwards is not worth eight points. It 542 00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:58,280 Speaker 3: has gone above what it should be. But I haven't 543 00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 3: bet it yet. I need to get some you know, 544 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,320 Speaker 3: the you know some to plug my nose. But I 545 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:07,720 Speaker 3: absolutely might bet Arizona State hard. Lean on Arizona State. 546 00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:10,520 Speaker 2: That's that's a take your medicine bet right there. 547 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:14,560 Speaker 1: Sure a couple of overs here thor before we get 548 00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:17,000 Speaker 1: to the top five games, app State for James Madison 549 00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 1: over fifty nine has a huge liane, but the tickets 550 00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:23,520 Speaker 1: are less than fifty percent on the over most tickets 551 00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:28,840 Speaker 1: on the under, which is just crazy. Wku versus Florida 552 00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:32,399 Speaker 1: International sixty five and a half is getting hammered with that. 553 00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,920 Speaker 1: Over Miami versus Middle Tennessee over fifty two and a 554 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:39,440 Speaker 1: half is getting smashed on both sides, cash and tickets. 555 00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:42,280 Speaker 1: And then Washington versus stand for Over sixty three and 556 00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,400 Speaker 1: a half, hard on the cash, not so hard on 557 00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:48,119 Speaker 1: the tickets. So you got any good lien on a 558 00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:49,760 Speaker 1: total between these four games? 559 00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:53,240 Speaker 3: Store, Yeah, these are none of these are the I 560 00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,160 Speaker 3: do have two totals in my column. None of these 561 00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:59,120 Speaker 3: are those. But it's interesting because the market is in 562 00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:03,560 Speaker 3: line with where my system is pointing you. The Middle 563 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:07,520 Speaker 3: Tennessee Miami game, when I what is that live Scott 564 00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:08,800 Speaker 3: that the total it was? 565 00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:11,680 Speaker 2: I will double check, but it was and a half, yes. 566 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,359 Speaker 3: Okay, and that's that's what I had my sheet too. 567 00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:17,200 Speaker 3: My adjusted total in that game is sixty three point 568 00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:20,000 Speaker 3: five as well above what what you know what what 569 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:22,520 Speaker 3: they put out in Vegas. So I'm my system would 570 00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:25,520 Speaker 3: definitely be pointing you at at the over middle. Tennessee 571 00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:27,640 Speaker 3: can throw the ball around a bet. You know, they 572 00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:31,800 Speaker 3: they went they they've understock still. They've always been about 573 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,960 Speaker 3: having like the the quick, small, darty guys on the 574 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:38,560 Speaker 3: outside and the short game. But they've gone even more towards, 575 00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:40,600 Speaker 3: you know that way by by bringing in this air 576 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:43,240 Speaker 3: raid offensive coordinator. They can move the ball through the 577 00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:44,639 Speaker 3: air a little bit. Not a great team, but they 578 00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:46,520 Speaker 3: can move the ball through the air a little bit. 579 00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:51,000 Speaker 3: And then Miami last week, you know, maybe this line 580 00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:53,640 Speaker 3: there the total. Maybe it started out a little bit 581 00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:57,159 Speaker 3: depressed because Miami scored in the single digits against Texas 582 00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:57,639 Speaker 3: A and M. 583 00:27:57,880 --> 00:27:59,320 Speaker 2: But Scott couldn't punch it in. 584 00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:02,720 Speaker 1: Yeah about this last week We're driving and driving and 585 00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:06,119 Speaker 1: could not This was the definition of bend but don't break, 586 00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:09,280 Speaker 1: where most college defenses are bend and then break. 587 00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:12,960 Speaker 2: You know, but we had a y and m executed 588 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:13,520 Speaker 2: it perfectly. 589 00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:16,080 Speaker 3: Last week. We had a wild stat where Miami last 590 00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,400 Speaker 3: week became the first team since at least the year 591 00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,400 Speaker 3: two thousand, I don't know how far this calls back. 592 00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,840 Speaker 3: To get twenty or more first downs without an offensive 593 00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:27,880 Speaker 3: touchdown crazy unthinkable to move the ball as effectively as 594 00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:31,719 Speaker 3: Miami did without without cashing one eventually in Miami's up 595 00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:34,400 Speaker 3: don't downgrade Miami's offense because of what happened last week. 596 00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:36,720 Speaker 3: A and M has a good defense and they're still 597 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:38,920 Speaker 3: moving the ball on Obviously, they had the struggles within 598 00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:40,920 Speaker 3: the red zone. They'll have to figure that out against 599 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:43,760 Speaker 3: better defenses. But I still trust that offense to move 600 00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:45,800 Speaker 3: the ball. They have a good offensive line. They have 601 00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:50,640 Speaker 3: a first round NFL, first round NFL draft prospect at quarterback. 602 00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:52,520 Speaker 3: They have a lot of guys on the ELTs. Even 603 00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,280 Speaker 3: without Ristrepo, they still go three or four deep in 604 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:58,320 Speaker 3: guys that are dangerous, you know. In their receiving core, 605 00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:00,880 Speaker 3: they have two tight ends that might play in the NFL, 606 00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:03,640 Speaker 3: two different ones. And the running back room now has 607 00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,560 Speaker 3: gotten quite good since they've gotten Henry Perish. You had 608 00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:08,440 Speaker 3: him to Knight and and some of those other guys. 609 00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:10,280 Speaker 3: Some of those other guys, you know, it's sort of 610 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,280 Speaker 3: you think of like Swiss army knife and having different utilities. 611 00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,280 Speaker 3: Before that's all they had. Now you had Parish to 612 00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,600 Speaker 3: that whose skill set is a little bit more fleshed out. 613 00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:21,880 Speaker 3: You allow the guys behind him to do the situational 614 00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:24,160 Speaker 3: stuff that they're good at. Remember last week when you 615 00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:26,640 Speaker 3: were talking about A and M about how Auchain's game 616 00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:29,680 Speaker 3: had played a little bit down with out Spiller. Could Spiller, 617 00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:31,480 Speaker 3: could you know he could handle the load and do 618 00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,280 Speaker 3: do that sort of stuff. Miami didn't have that guy before, 619 00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:36,040 Speaker 3: but now they sort of do with Parish, a guy 620 00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:39,040 Speaker 3: that can handle heavy usage. So I like that offense. 621 00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:42,240 Speaker 3: I think Middle Tennessee's offense probably better than people think. 622 00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:44,920 Speaker 3: And Middle Tennessee's defense ain't gonna put up any sort 623 00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:46,560 Speaker 3: of a fight, So I, you know, I definitely like 624 00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:49,320 Speaker 3: that one the over the Western Kentucky game two. My 625 00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:50,560 Speaker 3: system loves that one. 626 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:52,400 Speaker 2: My sside think, yeah. 627 00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:55,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, my system set that one at seventy four and 628 00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 3: a half. Florida Internationals defense is one of the three 629 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:03,880 Speaker 3: worst in the nation. Western Kentucky they can't wait to 630 00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:06,280 Speaker 3: find a spot for Austin Reid to be able to 631 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:10,280 Speaker 3: have his get right game. They played pretty defent last week. 632 00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:14,840 Speaker 3: The receivers were dominating Indiana's secondary As expected, Reid has 633 00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:17,000 Speaker 3: gotten a little bit better each game. He was a 634 00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:19,400 Speaker 3: kid who who they signed was that D two player 635 00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:22,040 Speaker 3: of the year. Brought him in to replace Bailey Zappy. 636 00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:24,360 Speaker 3: The first couple of games, the offense wasn't quite as 637 00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,920 Speaker 3: explosive as we'd like, but again he was learning the 638 00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:28,720 Speaker 3: system and it's gotten a little bit better, a little 639 00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,080 Speaker 3: bit better, a little bit better. I think this is 640 00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:34,160 Speaker 3: a game where they go absolutely ballistic. FIU does not 641 00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,360 Speaker 3: have the bodies in the secondary to be able to 642 00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,960 Speaker 3: match up with Western Kentucky across the formation and FIU 643 00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:43,920 Speaker 3: on their side. Western Kentucky defense, of course, has been 644 00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:45,720 Speaker 3: no great shakes this year. They you know, they gave 645 00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:48,640 Speaker 3: up what twenty five points to an FCS team, and 646 00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,600 Speaker 3: and last week against Indiana India, they did hold Indiana 647 00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:53,320 Speaker 3: down to at the start of the game, but then 648 00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:55,880 Speaker 3: the one drive they needed to stop them, they couldn't. 649 00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:58,160 Speaker 3: Indiana drove the length of the field three minutes left 650 00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:00,760 Speaker 3: and you scored that touchdown then got the two point conversion. 651 00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:02,880 Speaker 3: I think FIU will be able to put up some 652 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:05,760 Speaker 3: points against Western Kentucky as well. I was leading the 653 00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:08,520 Speaker 3: Western Kentucky side earlier in the week because Vegas put 654 00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:10,920 Speaker 3: out a bad number. It was like Western Kentucky minus 655 00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:12,760 Speaker 3: twenty six or twenty six and a half when it open. 656 00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:17,200 Speaker 3: The market justifiably bunched Western Kentucky up to you know whatever. 657 00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:21,120 Speaker 3: It is now like a thirty thirty one point favorite. Yeah, my, 658 00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:23,120 Speaker 3: just a line on that is thirty two point four. 659 00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:25,440 Speaker 3: But with the line movement the way that it has, 660 00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:28,880 Speaker 3: I can't bet Western Kentucky anymore. I also can't I'm 661 00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:31,320 Speaker 3: certainly not gonna betting on FIU. The play in that 662 00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:32,920 Speaker 3: game for me would be the over for sure. 663 00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:36,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, it looks like you can get it at thirty 664 00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:40,440 Speaker 1: one or thirty and a half now, So, like you said, 665 00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:43,480 Speaker 1: that has expanded a bunch. Let's get into these top 666 00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:47,800 Speaker 1: five games. Or we've got number five Clemson at number 667 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:51,080 Speaker 1: twenty one week Forest. Clemson is a seven point favorite 668 00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:54,840 Speaker 1: in that game. Looks like you like Clemson in that 669 00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 1: one Florida number twenty on the road against number eleven Tennessee. 670 00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:00,880 Speaker 1: Kind it season ten and a half point game. You're 671 00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:03,400 Speaker 1: kind of right on the line in that one. Sixty 672 00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:05,920 Speaker 1: two and a half is the over. Number ten Arkansas, 673 00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:08,160 Speaker 1: number twenty three Texas A and M. Texas A and 674 00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:11,000 Speaker 1: M is a home favorite by two and a half points, 675 00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,680 Speaker 1: kind of right in line where you're at as well. 676 00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:15,840 Speaker 2: Baylor number seventeen at Iowa State. 677 00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:18,320 Speaker 1: Iowa State is a two and a half point favorite 678 00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:22,320 Speaker 1: in that game, and number fifteen, Oregan on the road 679 00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:25,840 Speaker 1: is a touchdown favorite by seven at Washington State. Fifty 680 00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,280 Speaker 1: seven and a half is the line in that game. 681 00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,960 Speaker 1: So any significant leans in these big five games that 682 00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:35,240 Speaker 1: everyone's going to be watching the nationally televised ones here. 683 00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:39,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, I lean hard on Clemson if that number is 684 00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:41,640 Speaker 3: at seven, you know, like you were sort of alluding to, 685 00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:43,960 Speaker 3: my adjusted line in that game is closer to Clemson 686 00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:48,120 Speaker 3: minus ten. I want to see. There's a couple of 687 00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:52,719 Speaker 3: different things. First of all, is Brian Breese. I assume 688 00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:54,680 Speaker 3: that he is going to play. He didn't play in 689 00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:58,680 Speaker 3: the last game because tragedy his sister died with brain cancer. 690 00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:01,520 Speaker 3: Certainly understand and it would also be understandable if he 691 00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:06,239 Speaker 3: missed more games than the one. The game that they 692 00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:09,120 Speaker 3: played before was against Louisiana Tech. They didn't necessarily need 693 00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:12,400 Speaker 3: them to beat Louisiana Tech. This game far more pressing, 694 00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:15,280 Speaker 3: especially against that slow mesh that that Wake Forest does. 695 00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:18,840 Speaker 3: How do you defeat the slow mesh. It's blowing it 696 00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,360 Speaker 3: up at the mesh point, right, It's it's getting that 697 00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:25,160 Speaker 3: immediate pressure with your defensive line. Well, that's what Clemson 698 00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:28,400 Speaker 3: does the best of They have the best front seven 699 00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:31,280 Speaker 3: in college football. And I say that knowing how good 700 00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:33,440 Speaker 3: you know. For instance, Georgia's front seven is et cetera. 701 00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:35,680 Speaker 3: But Clemson has four different guys that are going to 702 00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:38,280 Speaker 3: get drafted high starting along that defensive line. They have 703 00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:41,280 Speaker 3: multiple rotational guys in the defensive line after that that 704 00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:43,719 Speaker 3: are going to be drafted, perhaps even in the middle rounds. 705 00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:45,800 Speaker 3: Then they might have the best lineback in college football 706 00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,400 Speaker 3: in that Simpson kit. So they have all kinds of 707 00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:51,520 Speaker 3: talent up front. They have disrupted that slow mesh in 708 00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,760 Speaker 3: the past, and it totally screws up that the timing 709 00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:58,000 Speaker 3: of that wake Forest offense. The reason that the wake 710 00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:02,080 Speaker 3: for is the slow mesh that it discombinedbulates other defenses. Again, 711 00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:04,480 Speaker 3: you take that away. If you can disrupt that, you 712 00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,080 Speaker 3: have to hurry up the quarterback, hurry up the running back. 713 00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:09,560 Speaker 3: They could drop the ball. They can make bad decisions 714 00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:12,600 Speaker 3: from there. The routes of the receivers aren't able to 715 00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:16,359 Speaker 3: fully flesh out and flow route. So we'll see about that. 716 00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:20,719 Speaker 3: I do think Clemson matches up well. Sam Hartman has 717 00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:22,520 Speaker 3: only been back for a couple of games since coming 718 00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:25,680 Speaker 3: back from that illness. I just think the seven number 719 00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:28,239 Speaker 3: is a little bit too low. But there's some of 720 00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,480 Speaker 3: these unanswered questions that I have, and I can also 721 00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:33,320 Speaker 3: say I know that Wake Forest is the sharp side 722 00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:36,800 Speaker 3: so far predominantly, that's where the money of the sharps 723 00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:39,000 Speaker 3: have been going towards that way. So because of all, 724 00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:41,560 Speaker 3: you know, sort of my questions about it, I sort 725 00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:43,759 Speaker 3: of talk myself out of betting on a lean so 726 00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:46,280 Speaker 3: far on Clemson. But if I do bet that one, 727 00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:48,960 Speaker 3: it'll be Clemson as long as that number stays at seven. 728 00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:51,200 Speaker 3: I'm not interested if it toag goles up to seven 729 00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:53,520 Speaker 3: and a half. If it goes to six and a half, 730 00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:56,239 Speaker 3: I'm definitely buying a Clemson ticket for sure. So we'll 731 00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:58,400 Speaker 3: we'll just see the way that that one goes. The 732 00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:03,759 Speaker 3: Florida Tennessee one, I can't touch the side because first 733 00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:07,800 Speaker 3: of all, I don't trust Florida. Second of all, Tennessee 734 00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,160 Speaker 3: is beaten around two Patsy's and then the other game 735 00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:13,040 Speaker 3: when they played a legitimate opponent. They probably should have lost. 736 00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:15,200 Speaker 3: That they were down on Pittsburgh for most of the game, 737 00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:16,160 Speaker 3: and then I had to come back to. 738 00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:21,560 Speaker 2: The very end, and then you got hurt, right then, yeah. 739 00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:26,400 Speaker 3: Exactly right. They Yeah, Tennessee injured Slovis and then Pittsburgh. Yeah. Yeah. 740 00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:29,799 Speaker 3: That you also have in this game of key contributors 741 00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:32,600 Speaker 3: on both sides where we don't know if they're gonna play, 742 00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:35,560 Speaker 3: and seeming like they might not from what I'm hearing. 743 00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:39,240 Speaker 3: Cedric Tillman's the big one on the Tennessee side. Uh, 744 00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:42,440 Speaker 3: And it seems like at least, well, my birdies are 745 00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:44,480 Speaker 3: telling me, well, we'll see when it comes to Saturday. 746 00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:48,399 Speaker 3: My birdies told me yesterday that Jordan Travis wasn't gonna play, 747 00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:50,320 Speaker 3: and then you were. You kicked the walking boot and 748 00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:52,239 Speaker 3: he was back out of practice today. I don't know 749 00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:53,839 Speaker 3: if he's gonna play either. But like you know, it's 750 00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:57,080 Speaker 3: the college football injury thing. It's a whole nother can 751 00:35:57,080 --> 00:35:58,560 Speaker 3: of worms that we don't have the time to get into. 752 00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:00,759 Speaker 3: But the fact that they don't have to report the 753 00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:03,719 Speaker 3: injuries at all, I mean, not even accurately. 754 00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:06,120 Speaker 1: The fact that you have to be the spymaster varies 755 00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:06,960 Speaker 1: to figure it out. 756 00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:09,480 Speaker 3: You do have to be various. Yeah, you gotta send 757 00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:11,399 Speaker 3: your little Birdie's in. You gotta do the whole thing. 758 00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:14,080 Speaker 3: But you know, with Tillman, we don't know what the 759 00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:17,080 Speaker 3: status is yet, but it does seem like those around 760 00:36:17,160 --> 00:36:20,200 Speaker 3: the team right now they lean towards him not playing. Then. 761 00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:23,400 Speaker 3: On the also, Jabari Small one of their rotational backs. 762 00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:25,759 Speaker 3: They have a couple other ancillary parts as well that 763 00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:28,440 Speaker 3: are questionable. On the Florida side, the biggest one for 764 00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:31,880 Speaker 3: them is Ventro Miller, their linebacker. Ventro Miller has had 765 00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:36,000 Speaker 3: durability questions the past three years. Really when it's really 766 00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:39,760 Speaker 3: weird to watch Florida's defense, regardless of who the coaches were, Mullan, 767 00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:43,719 Speaker 3: the assistants, NAPI, or now, every time Ventro Miller is 768 00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:47,000 Speaker 3: in the game, Florida's defense plays up. Whenever Ventro Miller 769 00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:49,319 Speaker 3: is not in the game, it plays down. That much 770 00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:53,640 Speaker 3: is irrefutably true. So if Ventro Miller is not playing 771 00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,840 Speaker 3: against Tennessee, you like the matchup with Tennessee's offense against 772 00:36:56,840 --> 00:37:00,279 Speaker 3: Florida defense. If Ventro Miller is playing for Florida, you 773 00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:03,279 Speaker 3: would like Florida's defense in that matchup a little bit more, 774 00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:07,160 Speaker 3: especially if Tillman isn't playing. But my number is really 775 00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:09,880 Speaker 3: close to what the Vegas number is. I'm not showing 776 00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:12,719 Speaker 3: any real discrepancy at all. All Yeah, it's too close 777 00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:15,040 Speaker 3: to call. And I also don't know about these key players, 778 00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:18,200 Speaker 3: what's gonna happen with them. My system, though, I will say, 779 00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:21,680 Speaker 3: leans heavily towards the over of this game, but again 780 00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:25,839 Speaker 3: that's not counting et cetera. Tillman if he ends up 781 00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:29,040 Speaker 3: being out, which does compromise that that Tennessee receiving court 782 00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:31,440 Speaker 3: because when he plays, they got three studs out there, 783 00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:35,400 Speaker 3: it's really hard to defend them. So right now, I'm 784 00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:37,200 Speaker 3: definitely not going to play the side no matter what. 785 00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:40,680 Speaker 3: No matter what I hear, I will consider an overplay. 786 00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:42,680 Speaker 3: I would love to hear that Tillman is going to 787 00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:45,719 Speaker 3: play and that Miller is not going to play, and 788 00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:48,279 Speaker 3: then I would get real confident in it. But I 789 00:37:48,760 --> 00:37:50,840 Speaker 3: just don't know that yet. So I'm waiting on some 790 00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:55,200 Speaker 3: information there. In emigaanst Arkansas, I'm staying away from that one. 791 00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:57,640 Speaker 3: I don't have. I don't have a good read on 792 00:37:57,680 --> 00:37:59,520 Speaker 3: either of these two teams. I've tried to fade both 793 00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:02,480 Speaker 3: of them. So far, I've gotten closed, but no cigar. 794 00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:05,400 Speaker 3: I tried to fad Arkansas and the opener against Cincinnati. 795 00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:07,640 Speaker 3: I thought Cincinnati had a real shot to win that 796 00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:09,480 Speaker 3: game outright as a six and a half point underdog, 797 00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:12,640 Speaker 3: and because of the circumstances in that game, Arkansas not 798 00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:14,680 Speaker 3: only ended up winning it but ended up covering. I 799 00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:17,400 Speaker 3: think they won by seven and covered by half a point. 800 00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:19,600 Speaker 3: And then A and M last week, you know, like 801 00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:21,960 Speaker 3: I tried to bet Miami plus six and a half, 802 00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:24,960 Speaker 3: and even though Miami actually had a good offensive game, 803 00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:27,760 Speaker 3: they also had a good defensive game, they still failed 804 00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:31,160 Speaker 3: to cover that game because I couldn't punch the touchdowns 805 00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:33,120 Speaker 3: and once I got into the red zone. So I 806 00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:35,359 Speaker 3: don't feel like I have a great read on either 807 00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:38,160 Speaker 3: of these teams yet A and M. I do. My 808 00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:41,680 Speaker 3: system has A and M favored by four point two points, 809 00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:44,560 Speaker 3: so I guess my system would slightly lean towards A 810 00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:47,560 Speaker 3: and M. But I'm definitely not gonna be touching that one. 811 00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:52,680 Speaker 3: Baylor Iowa State. That's a really interesting one, especially with 812 00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:56,000 Speaker 3: where the market has taken that line where it opened 813 00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:59,000 Speaker 3: as Baylor minus one or one and a half and 814 00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:01,560 Speaker 3: now it's Iowa say minus two and a half or 815 00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:04,760 Speaker 3: even three at a lot of books right now. That's 816 00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:07,440 Speaker 3: it makes you scratch your head a little bit because 817 00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:10,440 Speaker 3: I don't know any sharp that thinks at full strength 818 00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:13,319 Speaker 3: both these teams that Baylor is not the better team 819 00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:16,279 Speaker 3: than i Aowa State. But unfortunately for Baylor, they're not 820 00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:20,359 Speaker 3: at full strength. They have numerous guys that missed last week, 821 00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:23,080 Speaker 3: and we don't know yet, but it doesn't seem to 822 00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:27,000 Speaker 3: be trending well. The starting running back Ta McWilliams, their 823 00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:31,160 Speaker 3: slot receiver Baldwin, the tight end Sims. I'm not even 824 00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:33,640 Speaker 3: hitting all of them. There's even more guys. They're a 825 00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:36,759 Speaker 3: little bit compromised, so they have some injury concerns there, 826 00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:40,160 Speaker 3: and especially the thing that concerns you is the skill 827 00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:43,719 Speaker 3: guys if they're out again. Blake Shapin has not looked 828 00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:47,160 Speaker 3: as good as It's not me Baylor. Baylor thought Blake 829 00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:50,280 Speaker 3: Shapen was gonna look better. They wouldn't have told Jerry 830 00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:53,239 Speaker 3: Bohannon to go and kick rocks and leave if they 831 00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:56,200 Speaker 3: knew that that shape wasn't gonna play as well. You wonder, 832 00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:59,319 Speaker 3: is that because Shapan's been playing with skill guys that 833 00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:01,520 Speaker 3: he didn't think he would be because of the injury concerns 834 00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:04,200 Speaker 3: early on, or is shaping just not quite as good 835 00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:07,000 Speaker 3: as they thought. Baylor's also played you know, they played 836 00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:09,160 Speaker 3: byu that you know, they they played some teams so 837 00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:11,320 Speaker 3: far they have you know, it hasn't been like Minnesota 838 00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:14,239 Speaker 3: playing three cupcakes whatever. So so that stuff's up in 839 00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:17,920 Speaker 3: the air with them, and and and perhaps because of that, 840 00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:20,960 Speaker 3: that's why this line has moved to Iowa State minus three. 841 00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:23,240 Speaker 3: I I know someone very close to the Baylor program 842 00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:25,319 Speaker 3: who over the years has helped me out quite a 843 00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:27,440 Speaker 3: bit with Baylor handicaps, because it seems like he's on 844 00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:30,200 Speaker 3: every single time. I messaged that guy to ask him 845 00:40:30,200 --> 00:40:32,560 Speaker 3: what he thought about this game, and he did not 846 00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:36,640 Speaker 3: sound very confident on the Baylor side. And typically, I 847 00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:38,759 Speaker 3: mean when he is confident, he'll let you know that 848 00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:41,359 Speaker 3: he is confident. He is not confident in this game, 849 00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:44,440 Speaker 3: perhaps because of a confidence of those factors. I can't 850 00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:46,879 Speaker 3: bet Baylor because of all those different reasons. I also 851 00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:49,520 Speaker 3: don't love Iowa State. Though they have a decent defense, 852 00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:53,480 Speaker 3: the offense is super duper young. They didn't do much against. 853 00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:54,759 Speaker 2: I lost everybody year. 854 00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:58,960 Speaker 3: Yeah. Literally, Yeah, perty bresol the tight ends, most of 855 00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:02,279 Speaker 3: the offensive line. Against Iowa, they didn't do a ton 856 00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:04,000 Speaker 3: on offense. They ended up winning anyway because of the 857 00:41:04,040 --> 00:41:05,920 Speaker 3: fumble at the goal line by Potty Bomb and then 858 00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:07,839 Speaker 3: they had the I always stated their one good drive 859 00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:10,640 Speaker 3: coming off of that, But I it's hard to trust 860 00:41:10,640 --> 00:41:13,000 Speaker 3: them against Dave Randon defense too, So you're sort of 861 00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:15,840 Speaker 3: on both sides being like, who can I trust? Classic 862 00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:19,640 Speaker 3: stay away game. The Oregon Washington State game is interesting 863 00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:22,520 Speaker 3: in from an information perspective. For me, I don't see 864 00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:24,640 Speaker 3: an edge on this one, you know, just in terms 865 00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:26,920 Speaker 3: of the numbers. I guess my numbers would slightly lean 866 00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:29,759 Speaker 3: Oregon at at I think I got Oregon minus eight 867 00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:33,200 Speaker 3: point eight. But I it's hard for me to take 868 00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:36,759 Speaker 3: them off of their triumphant win last week when they 869 00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:38,120 Speaker 3: slapped around BYU. 870 00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:41,439 Speaker 1: We've seen them look really good and really bad, so 871 00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:44,200 Speaker 1: it's hard to know who the real Oregon is right now. 872 00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:46,239 Speaker 3: Well said, it's sort of you know, I'm coming to 873 00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:48,360 Speaker 3: you live from Minneapolis. It's sort of like the Vikings 874 00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:50,920 Speaker 3: in the first two game. They flapped around the Packers 875 00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:53,440 Speaker 3: and then they got slapped around by the Eagles. 876 00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:55,400 Speaker 2: It was I had them in that game yesterday. 877 00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:58,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's the inverse in this case where Oregon got 878 00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:01,239 Speaker 3: absolutely annihilated. It just got to run over like the 879 00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:04,279 Speaker 3: you know, coyote or whatever in the first game by 880 00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:07,000 Speaker 3: Georgia and then in the last game they were the 881 00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:09,320 Speaker 3: team slapping around by the seem We mentioned that you 882 00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:11,760 Speaker 3: know that have beaten Bailet pulled that game out in overtime. 883 00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:14,359 Speaker 3: But BYU in that game was without both their their 884 00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:16,880 Speaker 3: their top two receivers, Gunner Romney who hasn't played yet 885 00:42:16,920 --> 00:42:20,280 Speaker 3: this year, and then Poka Nakua, so b Yu is down. 886 00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:22,799 Speaker 3: And BYU went into that game off of that win 887 00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:25,600 Speaker 3: against Baylor where they sort of had to figure things 888 00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:28,040 Speaker 3: out and then scratch and claw and then pull it 889 00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:30,640 Speaker 3: out in overtime, force overtime, then pull it out and overtime. 890 00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:33,239 Speaker 3: Now Oregon comes in off that win, which is big 891 00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:35,719 Speaker 3: for them. Now you have to travel out to the 892 00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:39,640 Speaker 3: polue out there in Pullman, Washington, out up in the 893 00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:43,360 Speaker 3: wilderness to play this Washington State team who has definitely 894 00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:45,960 Speaker 3: played better than we have all anticipated so far. But 895 00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:48,360 Speaker 3: I don't know anyone that can get their fingers totally 896 00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:52,680 Speaker 3: on Washington State. They're not Mike Leach's Washington State. They're 897 00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:56,640 Speaker 3: not Nick Rolovich's Washington State. This team is something different. 898 00:42:56,920 --> 00:43:02,080 Speaker 3: They've clearly improved on defense. The offense will see they've 899 00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:05,520 Speaker 3: done a better job of not putting themselves into bad spots. 900 00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:07,719 Speaker 3: I think that maybe you would have thought heading in 901 00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:09,920 Speaker 3: because cam Ward last year in the FCS, even though 902 00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:12,080 Speaker 3: he put up Bazooka numbers, he threw a whole bunch 903 00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:15,040 Speaker 3: of interceptions. Washington State is doing a better job of 904 00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:17,600 Speaker 3: at least controlling the ball on offense, but they have 905 00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:20,720 Speaker 3: not been as explosive nor I think as efficient overall 906 00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:24,279 Speaker 3: as they have been in the past. This one, for me, 907 00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:27,279 Speaker 3: it could go either way. I feel like Washington State 908 00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:29,840 Speaker 3: is licking its chops with the situational spot. It's in 909 00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:33,600 Speaker 3: getting that Oregon team off that win over BYU feeling 910 00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:36,720 Speaker 3: itself slapping around BYU. Now they come in there, maybe 911 00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:39,880 Speaker 3: you ambush them, But Oregon they're feeling good too. I 912 00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:42,279 Speaker 3: think they think that they figured things out after that 913 00:43:42,560 --> 00:43:45,560 Speaker 3: the disaster of the opener. For me, that's an informational game, 914 00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:47,360 Speaker 3: and I think we're gonna get some good information out. 915 00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:49,520 Speaker 1: Of it, all right, Going to the games that you 916 00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:52,560 Speaker 1: like thor we only have two this week. Cincinnati is 917 00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:55,799 Speaker 1: a fourteen point favorite, you like them much more than 918 00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:59,319 Speaker 1: that against Indiana, and Louisiana is a nine point home 919 00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:04,200 Speaker 1: favorite again or a road favorite, excuse me, against Louisiana Monroe, 920 00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:06,799 Speaker 1: and you like them significantly more than that. 921 00:44:06,840 --> 00:44:08,440 Speaker 2: Tell us about those games, if you would. 922 00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:12,960 Speaker 3: Yeah. So one of these my system loves it and 923 00:44:13,040 --> 00:44:15,240 Speaker 3: I love it, and then the other one my system 924 00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:17,759 Speaker 3: loves it and I can't go with my system on it. 925 00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:21,719 Speaker 3: The one that we both love is Cincinnati. Yeah, And 926 00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:24,640 Speaker 3: producer Thomas will know all about this one, because Ray, 927 00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:27,440 Speaker 3: when the lines dropped on Sunday, it was I was 928 00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:31,000 Speaker 3: Jim Kramer, bye bye, bye, bye bye hammer Cincinnati because 929 00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:33,520 Speaker 3: the books made a mistake opened it in single digits. 930 00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:37,239 Speaker 3: You knows, Cincinnati minus eight or whatever because Indiana is 931 00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:40,640 Speaker 3: undefeated in fluke circumstances. We'll talk about that in a second. 932 00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:44,160 Speaker 3: But indeed it got immediately hammered up to Cincinnati minus 933 00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:46,320 Speaker 3: fourteen by the time people woke up on Monday morning 934 00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:49,239 Speaker 3: with Cincinnati minus fourteen and already jumped six points just 935 00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:51,680 Speaker 3: because of the market movement on it. And but even 936 00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:53,920 Speaker 3: that didn't go far enough. Like my addressed line in 937 00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:57,640 Speaker 3: that game was like nineteen point eight, I guess, and 938 00:44:57,640 --> 00:45:00,000 Speaker 3: and so then you know, got to fourteen by Monday morning, 939 00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:02,240 Speaker 3: and then now it's up to sixteen and a half. 940 00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:05,400 Speaker 3: I still don't think that's far enough for me. Until 941 00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:07,680 Speaker 3: this thing gets up to twenty. It is too short. 942 00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:11,880 Speaker 3: It just is Look at the resumes. Throw out the records, 943 00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:14,919 Speaker 3: but look at the resumes and what actually happened. Yes, 944 00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:17,520 Speaker 3: Indiana's three and zero, but in the first game they 945 00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:19,960 Speaker 3: pulled a game out of their butts against Illinois where 946 00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:21,840 Speaker 3: they were down for a lot of it, and then 947 00:45:21,880 --> 00:45:23,319 Speaker 3: they had to drive the length of the field the 948 00:45:23,400 --> 00:45:25,880 Speaker 3: very end to pull that game out after Brett Beilham 949 00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:28,360 Speaker 3: and made all those stupid decisions when he got first 950 00:45:28,360 --> 00:45:29,799 Speaker 3: and goalne and was just run up the middle, run 951 00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:31,480 Speaker 3: up the middle, run up the middle, run up the middle, 952 00:45:31,640 --> 00:45:33,520 Speaker 3: turn the ball over and then Indiana go is ninety 953 00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:36,440 Speaker 3: nine years thir whatever. And then the next week Indiana 954 00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:39,839 Speaker 3: hosts Idaho, who not only is Idaho and FCS team, 955 00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:42,480 Speaker 3: they're not a particularly good FCS team. Last year they 956 00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:44,759 Speaker 3: went four and seven. They'd lost the game heading into 957 00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:48,080 Speaker 3: the Indiana one Idaho led Indiana on their home field 958 00:45:48,080 --> 00:45:50,160 Speaker 3: ten to nothing at halftime. Indiana had to rally in 959 00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:52,480 Speaker 3: the second half to beat them. And then last week, 960 00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:55,440 Speaker 3: you know, we were talking all week love Western Kentucky. 961 00:45:55,560 --> 00:46:00,000 Speaker 3: Love Western Kentucky. To upset Indiana. Don't even need the points. 962 00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:01,480 Speaker 3: We tuck. It was a six and a half point underdog. 963 00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:04,480 Speaker 3: They controlled that entire game. They did whatever they wanted 964 00:46:04,520 --> 00:46:07,040 Speaker 3: to do, but Indiana justs hung around. You know, it's 965 00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:08,120 Speaker 3: like the Teddy KGB. 966 00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:13,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, hang around, hang around allgtor blood exactly. 967 00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:17,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, Indiana just they hung It kept feeling like it 968 00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:19,160 Speaker 3: was on the precipice of getting out of hand on 969 00:46:19,200 --> 00:46:22,080 Speaker 3: the Western Kentucky side, where you know, they would score 970 00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:24,040 Speaker 3: a touchdown and then you know it's gonna like, you know, 971 00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:26,680 Speaker 3: there's gonna be like sixteen points and then Indiana would 972 00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:28,440 Speaker 3: have to go yolo in their passing game, we'd get 973 00:46:28,440 --> 00:46:31,160 Speaker 3: a pick six and the route would be on. But Indy, 974 00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:34,000 Speaker 3: it didn't happen. Indians kept hanging around, hanging around. They 975 00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:35,640 Speaker 3: got the ball with three minutes left, they were down 976 00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:37,840 Speaker 3: by eight. They drove the length of the field, scored 977 00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:40,120 Speaker 3: the touchdown, got the two point conversion at the very 978 00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:43,720 Speaker 3: very end, twenty seconds left, forced overtime. Western Kentucky missed 979 00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:45,320 Speaker 3: the field goal in the front end of it. Indiana 980 00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:47,279 Speaker 3: gets their field goal in the back end. So they 981 00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:49,600 Speaker 3: ended up winning that game, another game that they had 982 00:46:49,719 --> 00:46:52,560 Speaker 3: absolutely no business winning. So Indiana is a three to 983 00:46:52,600 --> 00:46:55,400 Speaker 3: zero team who really should be one and two. And 984 00:46:55,480 --> 00:46:58,720 Speaker 3: the game that you know again the win was against 985 00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:02,040 Speaker 3: FCS Idaho when they didn't look good in that game either. 986 00:47:02,640 --> 00:47:04,919 Speaker 3: And on the Cincinnati side, I sort of think it's 987 00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:09,240 Speaker 3: the opposite. They maybe should have beat excuse me, Arkansas 988 00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:12,040 Speaker 3: in the opener. That thing didn't go their way. But 989 00:47:12,440 --> 00:47:15,680 Speaker 3: Cincinnati is a solid team. Last week they started out 990 00:47:15,680 --> 00:47:18,760 Speaker 3: sluggishly against Miami of Ohio, who's an above average MAC team, 991 00:47:18,960 --> 00:47:22,360 Speaker 3: but then Cincinnati just slapped them around after halftime. They've 992 00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:25,160 Speaker 3: covered every line of that one, both the side, second 993 00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:28,880 Speaker 3: half line, everything like that. Cincinnati is more talent than 994 00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:32,120 Speaker 3: people think. And now that the quarterback play is established. 995 00:47:32,120 --> 00:47:34,160 Speaker 3: After in camp, you know they were wondering, we're gonna 996 00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:35,920 Speaker 3: go Bryant, Are we gonna go pray or how you know, 997 00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:37,239 Speaker 3: what are we gonna do? What are we gonna do 998 00:47:37,280 --> 00:47:39,239 Speaker 3: in the running back room, there's so many different names. 999 00:47:39,440 --> 00:47:42,040 Speaker 3: They've sorted through that stuff now and now also the 1000 00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:44,399 Speaker 3: receiving course is starting to become more solidified as well. 1001 00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:47,880 Speaker 3: I love Cincinnati in this game. Again, this line should 1002 00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:50,759 Speaker 3: be Cincinnati minus twenty or minus twenty one, as long 1003 00:47:50,800 --> 00:47:52,759 Speaker 3: as you can get it under that, and certainly if 1004 00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:55,879 Speaker 3: you can get it fourteen or least by Cincinnati, that's 1005 00:47:56,000 --> 00:47:58,279 Speaker 3: It's one of my favorite plays of the week. And 1006 00:47:58,600 --> 00:48:01,319 Speaker 3: getting it even lower made me even more confident. But 1007 00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:04,200 Speaker 3: even in fourteen or you know, between that and seventeen, 1008 00:48:04,280 --> 00:48:07,360 Speaker 3: definitely a bye. The one where it's not that I 1009 00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:09,840 Speaker 3: disagree with my system, it's I just can't get my 1010 00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:13,719 Speaker 3: finger on this one. My system loves Louisiana or as 1011 00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:19,120 Speaker 3: some people will call him, Louisiana Lafayette. Yeah, at UO Monroe. 1012 00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:23,200 Speaker 3: In this case, my system has Louisiana or Louisiana Lafayette 1013 00:48:23,239 --> 00:48:26,000 Speaker 3: by seventeen and a half, and the live line has 1014 00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:29,400 Speaker 3: come all the way down to Louisiana minus nine. The 1015 00:48:29,520 --> 00:48:33,120 Speaker 3: reason that I can't bet it it's twofold. I have 1016 00:48:33,239 --> 00:48:36,160 Speaker 3: been a little bit higher on UE Monroe than the market. 1017 00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:39,560 Speaker 3: They swapped out their coordinators. They had Rich Rodriguez, an 1018 00:48:39,560 --> 00:48:42,200 Speaker 3: offensive coordinator before and Rich Rodrigez had already started as 1019 00:48:42,239 --> 00:48:45,319 Speaker 3: early what do you call soft quitting. Rich Rodriguez had 1020 00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:49,200 Speaker 3: already started his soft retirement. But before that, and Uele 1021 00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:52,040 Speaker 3: Monroe is not equipped to run his offense even when 1022 00:48:52,040 --> 00:48:55,719 Speaker 3: his kid was the quarterback. And then they had an 1023 00:48:56,120 --> 00:49:00,000 Speaker 3: equally big dope as a defensive coordinator. They swapped those things. 1024 00:49:00,160 --> 00:49:02,759 Speaker 3: They went back and got the defensive coordinator that they'd 1025 00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:04,600 Speaker 3: had Matt Lubik the last time that they were good 1026 00:49:04,640 --> 00:49:07,399 Speaker 3: on offense. You bring him back in. The offense has 1027 00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:10,719 Speaker 3: ticked up early on in the season, and the defense. 1028 00:49:10,800 --> 00:49:12,560 Speaker 3: It's not that the talent has jumped up, but they 1029 00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:15,560 Speaker 3: seem to be more at least on the same page, 1030 00:49:15,960 --> 00:49:18,560 Speaker 3: which is an upgrade over what we saw last year. 1031 00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:22,200 Speaker 3: Louisiana a team that had been dominant in that conference 1032 00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:25,760 Speaker 3: for the past several years under Billy Napier. You lose Napier, 1033 00:49:25,800 --> 00:49:28,160 Speaker 3: but not only that, Napier took some players with them, 1034 00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:30,800 Speaker 3: your best players. They lost some of the other players 1035 00:49:30,840 --> 00:49:33,919 Speaker 3: as well. They had lost all the NFL running backs 1036 00:49:33,960 --> 00:49:36,520 Speaker 3: that you remember from recent years, like in your memory, 1037 00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:41,480 Speaker 3: like Elijah Mitchell and Vegas and all REGs. To what 1038 00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:43,560 Speaker 3: I call Regas to Riches. I used to call that 1039 00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:45,960 Speaker 3: Trey Regas kid. But anyway, they had all these different, 1040 00:49:46,000 --> 00:49:48,200 Speaker 3: you know, NFL guys that they lost previously, and then 1041 00:49:48,239 --> 00:49:50,360 Speaker 3: you lose a bunch of the guys that transfers some 1042 00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:53,759 Speaker 3: of them with Napier. They're still trying to figure things out, 1043 00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:56,040 Speaker 3: and like I said, I can't get my finger on 1044 00:49:56,120 --> 00:50:01,080 Speaker 3: that team yet. Qualitatively, this line should be higher. Just 1045 00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:04,200 Speaker 3: that's dictated by the talent levels on both teams. Louisiana 1046 00:50:04,280 --> 00:50:06,960 Speaker 3: Lafayet certainly is the more talented team here, and they're 1047 00:50:07,000 --> 00:50:10,279 Speaker 3: more talented enough to justify a double digit spread on 1048 00:50:10,320 --> 00:50:13,360 Speaker 3: the road. It's just again, You and Roe has taken 1049 00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:15,120 Speaker 3: a little bit of a step up. We're talking about 1050 00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:17,160 Speaker 3: the dregs of the FBS, but they have taken an 1051 00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:20,439 Speaker 3: objective step up, whereas Louisiana Lafayette we know that they've 1052 00:50:20,480 --> 00:50:24,080 Speaker 3: taken multiple steps down. The question becomes just how far 1053 00:50:24,239 --> 00:50:28,319 Speaker 3: has Louisiana fallen. We're gonna get a better sense after 1054 00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:30,120 Speaker 3: this game, because if they boat race you wom and 1055 00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:33,160 Speaker 3: Roe at Uo Monroe. Uh. You know, I think I 1056 00:50:33,200 --> 00:50:35,239 Speaker 3: think some of the people that adjusted them way way 1057 00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:37,600 Speaker 3: down in their power rankings to justify a bet on 1058 00:50:37,960 --> 00:50:41,120 Speaker 3: you Monroe, which which is clearly happening. That's why this 1059 00:50:41,160 --> 00:50:43,600 Speaker 3: line has dropped as far as it right then you 1060 00:50:43,640 --> 00:50:46,520 Speaker 3: could sort of start toggling it back for you all Offayette, 1061 00:50:46,840 --> 00:50:49,319 Speaker 3: But I just can't trust them yet. It's like I 1062 00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:51,120 Speaker 3: don't know them. I don't know who the person on 1063 00:50:51,239 --> 00:50:53,120 Speaker 3: the other end of the door knocking is, you know, 1064 00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:55,880 Speaker 3: and I don't have the people, so I don't know 1065 00:50:55,920 --> 00:50:58,160 Speaker 3: if I can open that door or not. I know 1066 00:50:58,320 --> 00:50:59,640 Speaker 3: I can't trust me yet. 1067 00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:01,960 Speaker 2: Look, I agree with that. 1068 00:51:02,400 --> 00:51:04,680 Speaker 1: Anything else for week four, I mean I think we 1069 00:51:04,800 --> 00:51:08,560 Speaker 1: covered most of it here, So anything else from you Thor, 1070 00:51:09,239 --> 00:51:11,480 Speaker 1: that's all I got, That's all we got, It's all 1071 00:51:11,520 --> 00:51:11,879 Speaker 1: we need. 1072 00:51:12,040 --> 00:51:14,319 Speaker 2: So that is going to wrap it up for us. 1073 00:51:14,360 --> 00:51:16,760 Speaker 1: Remember you can follow us on the Twitter at Bogman Sports, 1074 00:51:16,760 --> 00:51:20,960 Speaker 1: for myself, at Thor ku for Thor and Thor. What 1075 00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:23,160 Speaker 1: do you have coming up this week? What's on docket 1076 00:51:23,160 --> 00:51:23,400 Speaker 1: for you? 1077 00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:26,480 Speaker 3: Yeah? We got the best bets call. I'm coming out tomorrow. 1078 00:51:26,560 --> 00:51:28,960 Speaker 3: It's into the Publisher. Should be up by the morning 1079 00:51:28,960 --> 00:51:31,959 Speaker 3: whenever you guys wake up. Then on Saturday, My show 1080 00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:35,040 Speaker 3: with Mike Ferrell, the Kickoff Show starts at ten am 1081 00:51:35,080 --> 00:51:38,440 Speaker 3: Eastern nine am Central. We go for ninety minutes and 1082 00:51:38,520 --> 00:51:42,120 Speaker 3: hit as many games we possibly can on the cart sides, totals, props, 1083 00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:44,759 Speaker 3: the whole gamut. So definitely check that out if you. 1084 00:51:44,680 --> 00:51:48,040 Speaker 1: Haven't, absolutely and for me, you can catch me here. 1085 00:51:48,120 --> 00:51:50,440 Speaker 1: You can catch me on Fantasy Pros with Joe Pisa, 1086 00:51:50,480 --> 00:51:53,600 Speaker 1: Piatzac and IDPs and Thorn and I also do a 1087 00:51:53,680 --> 00:51:57,080 Speaker 1: Betting Pros Discord chat every single Wednesday at five pm Eastern. 1088 00:51:57,239 --> 00:51:59,080 Speaker 2: It's free, it's f R double. 1089 00:51:59,160 --> 00:52:00,839 Speaker 1: If you guys got a bet you want to come 1090 00:52:00,840 --> 00:52:03,600 Speaker 1: in and ask us about it, please feel free to 1091 00:52:03,680 --> 00:52:06,839 Speaker 1: join us. We'd love to take your questions have I mean, 1092 00:52:06,880 --> 00:52:08,960 Speaker 1: we go through games in there, but we just haven't 1093 00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:11,080 Speaker 1: been getting a lot of questions, so we love something 1094 00:52:11,200 --> 00:52:11,760 Speaker 1: We've answered. 1095 00:52:11,800 --> 00:52:14,880 Speaker 3: Every single literally every Lewis raised their hand, we've answered. 1096 00:52:14,880 --> 00:52:16,879 Speaker 3: So if you guys want to talk to us, want 1097 00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:19,360 Speaker 3: to get a pick in, ask a question, we will 1098 00:52:19,360 --> 00:52:21,920 Speaker 3: call on you up up front. If you're in there, 1099 00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:22,440 Speaker 3: you raise. 1100 00:52:22,320 --> 00:52:23,520 Speaker 2: Your hands absolutely. 1101 00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:26,080 Speaker 1: I also do a Betting Pros Twitter space on Friday 1102 00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:29,360 Speaker 1: at five eastern as well, so please join me in that. 1103 00:52:30,080 --> 00:52:32,480 Speaker 1: If you would catch me on CF you winning edge 1104 00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:35,040 Speaker 1: as well, talk to college football with my guys Nick 1105 00:52:35,080 --> 00:52:38,439 Speaker 1: and Savier over there as well, so but that'll wrap 1106 00:52:38,480 --> 00:52:40,239 Speaker 1: it up for us. Good luck and you'll see you 1107 00:52:40,280 --> 00:52:50,880 Speaker 1: guys next week. Have a great Week four everybody,