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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five forty forty five

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Speaker 3: fifty and the kick is block the college football world stunners.

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Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, he's.

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Speaker 3: Stumble the bubbles, the lateral turn, the corner of the job.

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Speaker 2: Get you the lad I'm not gonna table up the

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Speaker 2: fel the night.

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Speaker 4: It's not the sage of the dog in the fighting,

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Speaker 4: it's the sage of the fight in the doll.

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Speaker 5: What's up the generate nation? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 5: This is the week ten college football betting preview. I'm

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Speaker 5: stucky in with me as always is Colin Wilson. You

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Speaker 5: ready to talk me off putting a bet in on

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Speaker 5: your hogs?

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Speaker 4: You text me this week you say, what are you

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Speaker 4: hearing from practice? I've never seen a more non descript

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Speaker 4: head coach in my entire life. Chad Morris comes out, Well,

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Speaker 4: do you think do you think Jerry Jones's grandson's gonna

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Speaker 4: get the start?

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Speaker 2: No?

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Speaker 4: Maybe we'll see. What about kJ Jefferson? You think he'll

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Speaker 4: get have a play, have a whole scheme, a whole

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Speaker 4: set for him, maybe he'll be in there. I mean

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Speaker 4: he was. So he made one guarantee. He guaranteed we

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Speaker 4: would beat Mississippi State and that's it. And then he

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Speaker 4: said everybody on the roster is available to play. Oh

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Speaker 4: and then and then he read shirt a few players. So,

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Speaker 4: I mean it's been the craziest, Like I can't get

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Speaker 4: any specifics on who's playing in this game whatsoever.

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Speaker 5: And for those that are unfamiliar our first time listeners,

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Speaker 5: Colin is a Arkansas alum and fan, well fan if

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Speaker 5: you want to call him that. Some Arkansas fans would

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Speaker 5: disagree self loathing fan. But Arkansas is catching seven and

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Speaker 5: a half. They're on a big losing streak at home.

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Speaker 5: So it is Mississipi State. Missippi State has been a

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Speaker 5: dumpster fire. And really, you know, it's not that I

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Speaker 5: want to bet Arkansas as much as I really just

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Speaker 5: want to fade Mississippi State again. They've been in free

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Speaker 5: fall mode. Their defense is a mess. I mean it's

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Speaker 5: just look a look at the NFL. You have guys,

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Speaker 5: all those players, and Jeffrey Simmons, who I love on

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Speaker 5: the Titans. His presence is I mean all there. They

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Speaker 5: had three first round draft picks. Their defense isn't the same,

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Speaker 5: their offense is a mess. I think more heads on

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Speaker 5: the way out. It's just a team that I want

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Speaker 5: to faith, you know. Going on the road again. I

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Speaker 5: think it's their fourth road game since late September. They

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Speaker 5: have a bye next in Alabama. It's a semi flat spot.

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Speaker 5: And so the question is with the Arkansas quarterbacks, and

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Speaker 5: you don't want Starkle and for what I'm seeing that

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Speaker 5: the other guys that we want in there.

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Speaker 2: What Jerry Jones's grandson.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we will grand Baby. We're calling grand Baby by

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Speaker 4: the way from John Stephen Jones. He's been taking reps

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Speaker 4: with the Ones, so we hope he's the starter. He's

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Speaker 4: the one that looks more solid, but maybe that's the

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Speaker 4: result of him not having much playing time. But I

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Speaker 4: mean the fan base once grand Baby kJ Jefferson, he's

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Speaker 4: he's kind of got a hopefully like a Len Bouten

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Speaker 4: junior type effect on the game. We'll see what that

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Speaker 4: could do there. I mean, my thing with Mississippi State

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Speaker 4: is that if you look at this losing streak that

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Speaker 4: they're on, I mean four straight losses, four straight against

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Speaker 4: the spread, that they haven't covered last three games. I mean,

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Speaker 4: they're they're minus seven and turnovers, so I'm not sure

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Speaker 4: how much of it is self inflicted versus you know,

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Speaker 4: like they actually got beat I mean it was about

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Speaker 4: the same total yardage against Texas A and M. And

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Speaker 4: you know, they did get up three hundred and forty

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Speaker 4: yards against LSU. So I really think it's been more

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Speaker 4: self inflicted. Is where Arkansas is just downright pathetic and incompetent,

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Speaker 4: which is making people like me apathetic.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but I'm the Mississippi States.

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Speaker 5: No matter how you slice it, I mean, Mississippi State's

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Speaker 5: defense is still bad. I mean, I mean this has

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Speaker 5: to be one of the biggest drops we've seen in

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Speaker 5: a long time. Last year, they led the nation in

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Speaker 5: yards per play. This year they're one hundred and fourteenth

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Speaker 5: at six point four yards per play. It's worse than Texas.

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Speaker 5: Texas is one spot better. I believe that's the worst

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Speaker 5: of any Power five team not named Colorado or Vanderbilt.

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Speaker 5: So the defense is going from number one to number

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Speaker 5: one hundred and fourteenth.

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Speaker 2: So bad.

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Speaker 5: But all right, I think I'm gonna do play at Arkansas.

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Speaker 5: I'll wait for a little more intel or see if

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Speaker 5: that line budgets because I really do want seven and

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Speaker 5: a half, which is where it's sitting everywhere. But enough

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Speaker 5: about Arkansas. Let's give the people what they want. We'll

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Speaker 5: start off like we did last week with the marquee

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Speaker 5: games of the week.

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Speaker 1: It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out

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Speaker 1: the marquee matchups. We'll all end up bedding for week ten.

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Speaker 5: There's not a ton this week, and we don't really

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Speaker 5: care what the card looks like, and it is a

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Speaker 5: shorter card. I think there's forty seven forty eight games,

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Speaker 5: a bunch of teams on a buy, especially your more

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Speaker 5: marquee teams, and there's going to be next week. There's

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Speaker 5: a few end of marquee games. We have a few

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Speaker 5: next weekend, namely Penn State eight and No. At Minnesota

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Speaker 5: eight and No. That's a top fifteen matchup. Iowa at

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Speaker 5: Wisconsin's the top twenty matchup. And then of course the

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Speaker 5: big one, LSU at Bama next Saturday, one versus two,

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Speaker 5: so that should be a treat in Tuscaloosa.

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Speaker 2: We'll be covering that heavily all week.

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Speaker 5: But this weekend, look, Penn State is a bye, which

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Speaker 5: means I can't lose money fading them, which is always

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Speaker 5: a positive. I'd mark down here two marquee games of

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Speaker 5: the weekend before we go through each conference. Will then

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Speaker 5: get into our underdog money line parlay our favorite overdog

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Speaker 5: will also cover Friday Night Lights. And there's only one

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Speaker 5: Friday night game this week, but don't worry, we're gonna

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Speaker 5: get into Tuesday Night maction and Wednesday. That all starts

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Speaker 5: next week with November coming up. So let's start with

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Speaker 5: the first marquee game of the weekend, and that's the

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Speaker 5: Large the World's Largest cocktail Party Georgia versus Florida.

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Speaker 2: For those that don't know.

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Speaker 5: Some people say we can't call it that anymore, but

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Speaker 5: Georgia is a six to six and a half point

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Speaker 5: favorite over Florida. Over unders come down from forty seven

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Speaker 5: to forty four. This is in Jacksonville. For those that

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Speaker 5: don't know, the name the World's Largest Cocktail Party was

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Speaker 5: coined by a reporter who was there covering the game.

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Speaker 5: This is way back and he saw a stumbling drunk

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Speaker 5: college kid try to offer a drink to a police

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Speaker 5: officer on duty, and that's where he coined the name from.

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Speaker 5: That's where we get the name still holds on this podcast.

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Speaker 5: But Georgia and Florida both coming off buys which were

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Speaker 5: important to both teams.

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Speaker 2: They're both going to get some key players back.

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Speaker 5: Florida namely will get back Zuniga and Grenard, the two

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Speaker 5: of their best defensive linemen in pass rushers. They missed

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Speaker 5: them as soon as they went out. They didn't have

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Speaker 5: either against LSU and against South Carolina as well. And

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Speaker 5: Tony they get back as well. He was one of

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Speaker 5: the most explosive players. He should be back. Georgia, it's

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Speaker 5: more fifty to fifty, but it looks like at least

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Speaker 5: their corner Tyson Crawford week back.

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Speaker 2: That's big.

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Speaker 5: And then Lawrence Cage of their wide receiver is one

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Speaker 5: of from his favorite targets. He's fifty fifty as well,

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Speaker 5: but he's been practicing. I think both are going to go.

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Speaker 5: This is a huge game in the SEC. What are

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Speaker 5: you seeing here in Georgia Florida.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I know. I knew that this would be We

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Speaker 4: said this on the podcast on Sunday night, that this

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Speaker 4: would be a big Tuggle war on the power number

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Speaker 4: between people taking Florida at six six and a half

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Speaker 4: and then people buying on Georgia once it got too low.

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Speaker 4: Once we finished that podcast, Georgia got down to minus

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Speaker 4: three and a half. Woke up the next morning and

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Speaker 4: I was able to get my own bet in on

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Speaker 4: Georgia minus four as we have this power rated at

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Speaker 4: Georgia minus seven at the Action Network. And after that

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Speaker 4: it just took off. It's been, you know, big money

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Speaker 4: on Georgia, smaller bets on Florida. And that's really kind

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Speaker 4: of been the action that it's gone through the entire week.

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Speaker 4: The reason why I put in a couple units on

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Speaker 4: Georgia and I had no problem doing it, and I'm

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Speaker 4: going to wrap them up with a couple other money

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Speaker 4: lines this week. Nobody in the world of broadcast TV

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Speaker 4: is giving Georgia, you know, a good name here. Everybody's

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Speaker 4: kind of throwing them under the bus, calling them, you know, trash,

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Speaker 4: and they're all back in Florida. Based upon the LSU game,

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Speaker 4: but I mean, george Is allowed just one opponent to

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Speaker 4: reach twenty points this here. That was the loss against

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Speaker 4: South Carolina where there was a pick six. I mean

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Speaker 4: the game Cocks only had an eight percent postgame win

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Speaker 4: expectancy in that game, so It's not like they really

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Speaker 4: dominated Georgia there, but Florida got worn out by Joe Burrow.

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Speaker 4: By the end of that game. They had kept up

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Speaker 4: with them, but there was three touchdowns by LSU in

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Speaker 4: the end, and the Gators were just one dimensional. And

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Speaker 4: I think that's where it plays into the handicap here.

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Speaker 4: Their one dimension is they can pass the ball trash,

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Speaker 4: can pass the ball, no problems, but they have no

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Speaker 4: running game whatsoever. So I think Kirby's going to sell

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Speaker 4: out to stop the pass. And I mean Florida's thirteenth

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Speaker 4: and pass completion but they're one hundred and fourteenth and

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Speaker 4: rushing success rate. Why even defend the rush when they're

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Speaker 4: that terrible of a team when it comes to running

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Speaker 4: the ball. So george is going to sell out to

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Speaker 4: against the pass, where they're twelfth in opponent passing success rate,

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Speaker 4: So they're going to be able to eat them up

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Speaker 4: on that side of the ball. Now the other side,

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Speaker 4: Georgia offensively will have a ton of success on the ground.

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Speaker 4: Florida's defense is fifty fifth in lineyards, there's sixtieth and stuff.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 4: I know you're talking about how their defensive line is

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Speaker 4: getting healthy and getting some players back, and I mean

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Speaker 4: that should help against the rush and passing downs against

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Speaker 4: Jake FROMM. But there's just so many things in this

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Speaker 4: The point to Georgia winning this game Florida's fifty seventh

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Speaker 4: and havoc allowed. George is only fourth and havoc allowed.

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Speaker 4: So the team that's going to protect the ball is

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Speaker 4: going to be the Bulldogs. George's fifteenth and third down

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Speaker 4: conversion rate Florida nowhere close George's first an opponent red

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Speaker 4: zone scoring this season. You get into the red zone,

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Speaker 4: George is the team you don't want to be going against.

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Speaker 4: They're only allowing two point seventy three points per trip

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Speaker 4: in the red zone, so I know that they're having

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Speaker 4: wide receiver problems. I know the current wide receivers can't

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Speaker 4: create space and they can't get downfield, and from is

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Speaker 4: not you know, there's a connection between him and the

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Speaker 4: wide receivers isn't working. But in this where Florida's offense

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Speaker 4: is a one trick pony, George is going to be

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Speaker 4: able to beat them and cover.

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Speaker 5: I see the game pretty similarly as you, and now

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Speaker 5: getting Cajor back could help. When he went down against

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Speaker 5: South Carolina, I mean, the difference in their passing efficiency

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Speaker 5: just absolutely plummeted. Before he was hurt from was eleven

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Speaker 5: of sixteen. After he was hurt, he was seventeen to

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Speaker 5: thirty five or three picks. So they clearly have chemistry

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Speaker 5: and there is you know, the Georgia offense is lacking

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Speaker 5: explosiveness right and on defense they lack a little havoc.

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Speaker 5: You know, they don't have that guy who's going that

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Speaker 5: game changer. But across the board they're really good defense.

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Speaker 5: Now they haven't played a ton, but you know, against

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Speaker 5: the pass, and especially with Campbell coming back, they are

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Speaker 5: rocks out. They're rocks out against the run. You're right,

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Speaker 5: Florida can't run the ball. They can't run the ball

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Speaker 5: at all. And I don't think that they're going to

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Speaker 5: be able to pass if you know, with against this

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Speaker 5: Georgia secondary and the other side of the ball. You know,

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Speaker 5: I think Florida getting their pass rushers back will help,

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Speaker 5: like you said, in passing down situations if Florida has

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Speaker 5: a solid secondary as always, but where they're vulnerable is

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Speaker 5: running up the guy. Well, Georgia has arguably the best

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Speaker 5: offensive line in all of college football. I think they

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Speaker 5: rank number one in lineyards, number one in standard down

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Speaker 5: line yards just across the board number two, and opportunity

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Speaker 5: rate number four and stuff rate.

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Speaker 2: This offense line gets a push and you can run

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Speaker 2: up the middle on Florida. And this is all we've

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Speaker 2: seen from Georgia is you know, this very conservative game script,

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Speaker 2: and I think here it will work. And I think

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Speaker 2: that there was a little bit of them sleeping over

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Speaker 2: the past month or so. You know, I called that

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Speaker 2: out before October. I said, look, Georgia has, you know,

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Speaker 2: on the on their minds. They might say, look at

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Speaker 2: our October who cares? We'd have to wake up after

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Speaker 2: the buye for Florida, and it ended up biting them.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they were a little unlucky against South Carolina.

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Speaker 2: But we haven't seen the best version of Georgia yet.

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Speaker 2: But their defense is rock solid. I think they're just

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Speaker 2: going to run the ball and I don't see Florida

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Speaker 2: moving the ball. And you make a great point about

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Speaker 2: the red zone in that you know Florida has great receivers.

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Speaker 2: You know up there, top five set of.

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Speaker 5: Receivers, especially when you include Kyle pittser tight end who's

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Speaker 5: more of a hybrid tight end. Receiver, and you know,

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Speaker 5: they can move the ball through the air, and they'll

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Speaker 5: move it a little bit against Georgia, but when they

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Speaker 5: get down on the red zone again, Georgia is number one,

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Speaker 5: like you said, they and Florida can't run the ball,

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Speaker 5: which hurts in the red zone. So even if they

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Speaker 5: drive down the field, I think they're going to be

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Speaker 5: settling for field goals. That's why I like the under.

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Speaker 5: I played under forty six. I think it's down to

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Speaker 5: forty four and a half, but I think this is

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Speaker 5: you know, ends up being twenty four thirteenish Georgia. Aileen

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Speaker 5: Georgia as well. I think that their defense is going

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Speaker 5: to shut down Florida, and I think they're just going

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Speaker 5: to They can drive up and down the field by

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Speaker 5: handing it off and just pounding up the middle against Florida,

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Speaker 5: and that's going to keep the clock running.

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Speaker 4: I think. I think it's important for Georgia futures. Like

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Speaker 4: we did a piece on the Action Network about projecting

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Speaker 4: the four teams for the college Football Playoff, and I

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Speaker 4: went through Georgia's schedule and I said, listen, they're going

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Speaker 4: to beat Florida and then it's going to be about

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Speaker 4: a pick them or maybe minus one against Auburn at Auburn,

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Speaker 4: and that game is going to be a slow grind.

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Speaker 4: It's going to be an ugly, nasty game that I

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Speaker 4: think Georgia will end up winning. But what Stuck just

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Speaker 4: said about how the defense isn't producing enough havoc for

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Speaker 4: the talent that they have, and that the offense is

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Speaker 4: not producing any explosive plays that ultimately could be the

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Speaker 4: end to them in the SEC Championship game. But we

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Speaker 4: got to see who wins between LC and Alabama before

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Speaker 4: we start handicapping that.

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Speaker 3: I hope you're enjoying this great action network podcast. I

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Speaker 3: want to make sure you know about the Locked On

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Speaker 3: podcast network. Locked On has a daily podcast on your

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Speaker 3: favorite team.

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Speaker 5: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers, you are lockedown

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Speaker 5: of the Dallas marriage.

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Speaker 2: Can everybody still the Locked on Lakers podcast? Let's Go?

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Speaker 3: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

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Speaker 3: know your team better than anyone and give you the

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Speaker 3: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

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Speaker 3: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

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Speaker 5: All right, let's move on to the other marquee game

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Speaker 5: of the weekend. And that is between Washington and Utah.

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Speaker 5: Look on the surface, Washington doesn't have anything to play for.

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Speaker 5: You know, they're sitting at five and three on the year.

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Speaker 5: Utah's seven and one, still in the College twelve playoff discussion,

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Speaker 5: still in the PAC twelve title discussion. They also have

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Speaker 5: revenge from last year. They lost twice to Washington, and

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Speaker 5: you know they lost in the regular season and then

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Speaker 5: a Pack twelve champions and their offense did nothing in

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Speaker 5: either game. But you know, this is Washington at home

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Speaker 5: against a top ten team off of a bye. I

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Speaker 5: don't want to hear about any motivation issues. They're going

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Speaker 5: to be ready and they're going to be up for

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Speaker 5: this game. I took three and a half with Washington.

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Speaker 5: I saw that you did too. I think this is

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Speaker 5: just like the Oregon game. I know that Oregon came

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Speaker 5: back and covered, but I think that this is just

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Speaker 5: like that and this is more of a coin flip.

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Speaker 5: You know, Washington has had trouble with you know, there's

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Speaker 5: two things that they really struggled with. When you know,

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Speaker 5: Easan gets under pressure, but Utah really sticks to how

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Speaker 5: they play defense.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna play man, They're going to rely on their

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Speaker 2: front four. They don't blitz a ton, and I.

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Speaker 5: Think they're gonna you know, they showed how they just

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Speaker 5: stick to their scheme against USC and it ended up

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Speaker 5: biting them. But Washington has one of the best offensive

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Speaker 5: lines in college football, so I don't think you're going

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Speaker 5: to see Easton under pressure a ton. I think that

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Speaker 5: they can efficiently move it, especially if they get some

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Speaker 5: of their receivers back. Aren't fuller, namely and it looks

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Speaker 5: like he he's been practicing. It's so hard to get

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Speaker 5: injury updates in college football.

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Speaker 2: I think I blasted on.

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Speaker 5: I read it was week to week week the week,

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Speaker 5: but he's playing. I don't know, but they's likely to play,

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Speaker 5: but you know, and the big question on the other

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Speaker 5: side of the ball is Washington's run defense, and which

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Speaker 5: has been poor for a lot of the year, but

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Speaker 5: it did look a lot better against Oregon. You know,

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Speaker 5: you have Chris Peterson here with two weeks to prepare,

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Speaker 5: and there's two other X factors that pushed me over

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Speaker 5: the edge to bet Washington here. And I hope what

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Speaker 5: Utah wins by three for our PAC twelve futures. You know,

339
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Speaker 5: Tyler Huntley is not fully healthy and you know that

340
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Speaker 5: he's not as mobile as he needs to be, and

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Speaker 5: you know his mobility is an asset in that offense.

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Speaker 5: So it then comes down to, you know, can you

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Speaker 5: stop the run and the Utah run heavy offense, and

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Speaker 5: I think that, you know, without Huntley's mobility, it's going

345
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Speaker 5: to limit them on third down situations and it'll be

346
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Speaker 5: easier for Washington, you know, to just game plan against

347
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Speaker 5: the more basic runs. And then the other, which is

348
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Speaker 5: crazy for me to say, is special teams. For I

349
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Speaker 5: don't know, the last ten years, Utah has had one

350
00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:12,520
Speaker 5: of the best special teams units in all of college football. Prennially,

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Speaker 5: it's just like, hey, the Utes have one of the

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Speaker 5: best special teams units in all of college football. They

353
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Speaker 5: usually have a punter that's on the Ray Guy List,

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Speaker 5: they have a kickers on the Low Groz Award list,

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Speaker 5: and they've won it multiple times. But this year, you know,

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Speaker 5: they lost a lot of guys on special teams and Washington,

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Speaker 5: by the way, was on the other no spectrum. Their

358
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Speaker 5: special teams have been hard, but this year it has

359
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Speaker 5: been complete one point eighty and on you know, some

360
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Speaker 5: mid season All American lists, you had Washington's kicker Henry

361
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Speaker 5: was the first team All American kicker midway through the season. Overall,

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Speaker 5: the Washington special teams, you know, I think if you

363
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Speaker 5: look at SMP, Washington is the number one rated special

364
00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:03,520
Speaker 5: teams team in the nation and Utah is seventy eight.

365
00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:07,280
Speaker 5: Shocking for how these two teams usually are, so that

366
00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:10,399
Speaker 5: could play a major role as well. So Huntly not

367
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Speaker 5: being fully healthy, Washington getting some receivers back two weeks

368
00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:16,359
Speaker 5: to prepare, you know, with their run defense looking a

369
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Speaker 5: little better against Oregon, and then the special team's edge.

370
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Speaker 5: It's just that's what put me over to top here

371
00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:24,040
Speaker 5: to take the home dog catching three and a half,

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Speaker 5: and I think you're getting some value just because you

373
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Speaker 5: know they're five and three unranked and people see Utah,

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Speaker 5: you know, top ten in the nation, and Utah has

375
00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,360
Speaker 5: just been obliterating teams. But this is a step up

376
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Speaker 5: and on the road in one of the toughest places

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Speaker 5: to play in college football.

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Speaker 4: With your thoughts, yeah, I mean, I completely agree with

379
00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:41,399
Speaker 4: you on the special teams, you know, especially from the

380
00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:43,680
Speaker 4: aspect that I don't think Washington has missed a field

381
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Speaker 4: goal yet this year. I think they're punting yards is

382
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Speaker 4: in the top forty, and they're they're only allowing like

383
00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:50,560
Speaker 4: one yard on a punt return, which is top ten.

384
00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:52,320
Speaker 4: So there's a lot of things going on there. I

385
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Speaker 4: agree with you in taking the Washington. The Washington for

386
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Speaker 4: me that I hit earlier in the week, it, you know,

387
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Speaker 4: is just based upon a lot of the things you said.

388
00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:01,800
Speaker 4: Huntley is not going to be able to get outside

389
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Speaker 4: the tackles and he's not going to be able to

390
00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:06,199
Speaker 4: make plays because he's been a little bit hobbled. The

391
00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:07,840
Speaker 4: whole thing is I hope that we don't have to

392
00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:10,080
Speaker 4: get to that point. I'm really kind of in between

393
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Speaker 4: here right I need Utah to win this game badly.

394
00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:15,360
Speaker 4: I'm my investments in Utah and their Pac twelve futures

395
00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:16,840
Speaker 4: are pretty large. But on a game, you know, on

396
00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:19,760
Speaker 4: a single game basis, Washington defensively is eighty eighth in

397
00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:22,679
Speaker 4: the line yards, meaning Zach Moss should have success running

398
00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:25,000
Speaker 4: the ball, and that sets up Huntley, you know, to

399
00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:27,600
Speaker 4: hit these underneath crossing routes that he's really good at hitting.

400
00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:29,320
Speaker 4: But you know, if he's flushed from the pocket and

401
00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:32,600
Speaker 4: he's forced to beat Washington from outside the tackles, it's

402
00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:34,520
Speaker 4: not going to be good news for Utah. I mean,

403
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:36,800
Speaker 4: Utah's defense has been outstanding. If you look on the

404
00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:38,560
Speaker 4: other side of the ball, Utah's defense, you know their

405
00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:41,240
Speaker 4: third line yards or eighth and stuff right, and Washington

406
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:44,200
Speaker 4: Washington O line is right up there. Yeah, they're not

407
00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:45,880
Speaker 4: going at just protecting Easton. They're one of the best

408
00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:48,640
Speaker 4: protecting Easton. They're also twenty second lineyards and they're twenty

409
00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:51,000
Speaker 4: six and stuff right. So that's really where I think

410
00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:52,720
Speaker 4: the biggest battle is going to happen in this game,

411
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Speaker 4: and the winner of that is probably going to win

412
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Speaker 4: the game. So for me, I'm going to take it

413
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Speaker 4: out on Washington plus three and a half market wise,

414
00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:01,800
Speaker 4: anytime this number is touched four or it's been hit

415
00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,240
Speaker 4: hard immediately with a lot of money and come back

416
00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:05,760
Speaker 4: down to three and a half, I don't think we're

417
00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:08,719
Speaker 4: gonna see four ever again. To me, this is a

418
00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:12,040
Speaker 4: single play on Washington for me, holding tight. Hopefully Utah

419
00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:14,000
Speaker 4: wins this game by one, two or three, and that's

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Speaker 4: how I'm gonna play it. But I'm also somebody that

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Speaker 4: has a whole lot on Utah futures. So if I

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Speaker 4: didn't have any Utah futures, whatsoever. I would probably play

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Speaker 4: Washington for a little bit less.

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Speaker 5: Yep, good points there, and we'll be talking well, very

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Speaker 5: in depth betting guides for each of these games. We'll

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Speaker 5: also cover them on our Saturday morning show ten thirty

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Speaker 5: am Eastern.

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Speaker 2: Every Saturday, we.

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Speaker 5: Tweet out we'll tweet out the link, so if you

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Speaker 5: follow us on Twitter at Stucky two and at Underscore

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Speaker 5: Colin one with two l's, well, we'll be updating any

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Speaker 5: injuries that we have and talking about those games in

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Speaker 5: the entire card and any movements and weather, the whole.

434
00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:50,159
Speaker 2: Shebang all right.

435
00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:52,959
Speaker 5: Before we go through conference by conference and pick out

436
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:56,640
Speaker 5: a few games that we either bet or intrigue us

437
00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:59,080
Speaker 5: a little bit, we have to talk about, well, we

438
00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:01,240
Speaker 5: have to bring back a segment we haven't had in

439
00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:03,359
Speaker 5: a while, and that's FCS no.

440
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:16,440
Speaker 1: Southland or SEC, Big Sky or Big Ten. It's time

441
00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:19,000
Speaker 1: to play FC yes or No.

442
00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:25,760
Speaker 5: So during the middle of the season we kind of

443
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,160
Speaker 5: lack the FBS matchups.

444
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 2: We get them in the beginning of the year.

445
00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:31,560
Speaker 5: We'll get some towards the end of the year, especially

446
00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:33,919
Speaker 5: on that SEC weekend when the SEC plays it's one

447
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:37,159
Speaker 5: of my favorite weekends. But in the entire SEC seems

448
00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:39,919
Speaker 5: to play a FCS team and they're all, you know,

449
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 5: forty forty five point favorites. But we have one this

450
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:46,720
Speaker 5: weekend with Clemson. You know, Clemson, in their brutal schedule,

451
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,960
Speaker 5: they have another tough one this weekend against Wafford. And

452
00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,280
Speaker 5: it's pretty funny and that, you know, you can't even

453
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:55,719
Speaker 5: tell the difference between the Clemson spreads in conference and

454
00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:59,440
Speaker 5: versus the FCS teams. Now, grantit, they're a little higher,

455
00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:02,399
Speaker 5: but still Clemson here is a forty six and a

456
00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:05,800
Speaker 5: half point favorite over under fifty eight, down from fifty

457
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 5: nine and a half against Wafford to the Terriers. They're

458
00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:12,320
Speaker 5: an FCS team now. They were pure triple option, but

459
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:16,040
Speaker 5: they're transitioning a little bit to more of a spread.

460
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 5: You know, three three five is vulnerable against the option,

461
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,680
Speaker 5: and so if they're running pure triple option, maybe Wofford can,

462
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:24,760
Speaker 5: it's the great equalizer, can have some success. But I

463
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:26,879
Speaker 5: probably will end up staying away here. But you have

464
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 5: a position on the total, right I do.

465
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:30,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, the total opened up fifty nine and a half,

466
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,800
Speaker 4: and immediately I started looking into this game because I know,

467
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 4: you know, Wolford being an in state college or and

468
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:38,919
Speaker 4: close to Clemson. I wonder if Dabo's kind of in

469
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 4: the mindset of taking it easy on little brother there

470
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,560
Speaker 4: in the state on the FCS level. So what's stuck

471
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:46,399
Speaker 4: is kind of referring to that they used to be

472
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:49,600
Speaker 4: triple option and that they're still an option team. I

473
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:53,119
Speaker 4: have to do a shout out to the Terrier's Twitter

474
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 4: account if you guys go to like Wafford Football, like

475
00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 4: their Twitter handle. Amazing amount of video. I don't know

476
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:03,679
Speaker 4: what intern or what college kid is running their Twitter account,

477
00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 4: but it's just so much video. And so I got

478
00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 4: to watch essentially the entire Wafford Chattanooga game just off

479
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 4: of the Twitter handle last week. So what Stuck is

480
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:14,280
Speaker 4: talking about about what used to be a triple option

481
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:16,639
Speaker 4: is there's always three running backs on the field, and

482
00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 4: there's a lot of prestat motion and they've got a

483
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 4: guy going here and they've got a guy going there.

484
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:22,720
Speaker 4: But it's still going to be a thing where they're

485
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,080
Speaker 4: in space and the quarterback has going to have at

486
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:27,159
Speaker 4: least more than one option. He's going to have at

487
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 4: least two options after he keeps the ball, no matter

488
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:30,919
Speaker 4: what formation they're in. It turns into some sort of

489
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,360
Speaker 4: way where he's got at least two decisions to make.

490
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 4: So looking at that, I started diving into the FCS stats.

491
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 4: They're second in FCS and rushing. They're fourth to last

492
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 4: in the FCS and passing. So passing the ball, I mean,

493
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:48,200
Speaker 4: it's just not a thing that's in their DNA ran second. Yeah, yeah,

494
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:50,680
Speaker 4: brand New there's second in time of possession in FCS.

495
00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:52,920
Speaker 4: Technically not a triple team, but just like a triple

496
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:56,680
Speaker 4: option team. They're really good at taking long stints of

497
00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:59,359
Speaker 4: having drives that take a lot of time off the clock.

498
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 4: I expect to be a game where hopefully at some point,

499
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 4: you know, Watford's gonna be able to go out there

500
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 4: and get some first downs, be able to take them

501
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 4: off the clock. I expect Trevor to get his one

502
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 4: hundred and seventy five yards four touchdowns before Everybody's kid,

503
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:15,200
Speaker 4: the Venables kid, the herb Street kid, all the kids

504
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:17,200
Speaker 4: are in playing And I mean this is in state

505
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:20,120
Speaker 4: school that just came off of an overtime winning agains Chattanooga.

506
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 4: So how efficient are they going to be? I just

507
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 4: I think everything to me points to the under and

508
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 4: then not saying that I base the play on this whatsoever.

509
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 4: But I went out to Sagaran ratings. But Saguran does

510
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:33,880
Speaker 4: a great job of mixing FBS and FCS power ratings, points, spreads,

511
00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 4: and totals. And their total was forty nine. So obviously

512
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:39,200
Speaker 4: this was about ten points higher than what Sagurn would

513
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 4: have projected at. So, considering that Wawford likes to take

514
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:43,639
Speaker 4: a whole bunch of time off the clock and that

515
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,199
Speaker 4: Clemson might not be in a mood to run up

516
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 4: the score, I think the under is the play. This

517
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 4: thing is going to move, It's going to move really fast.

518
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:51,520
Speaker 4: It's low limits, it's going to move fast. So you know,

519
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 4: fifty six is obviously key number you want to have

520
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:56,160
Speaker 4: your ear totals, you know, come with in your divisions

521
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 4: of seven, so you know fifty six and then maybe

522
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 4: fifty two because of forty nine in a field goal.

523
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 4: So keep that in mind when you're looking at your totals.

524
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 5: Fair enough there, And the other thing to keep in

525
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 5: mind with these teams that are potentially playoff bound at

526
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:11,119
Speaker 5: the FCS level, whether it's laid the season or the

527
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 5: mid season, and they're playing someone that they know they

528
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 5: can't beat, that there's no reason at all to show

529
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,680
Speaker 5: anything or play anybody. I've seen some of these fcss

530
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 5: where they'll bench their quarterback be like, all right, let's

531
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,480
Speaker 5: get paid and get out healthy. So that would also

532
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 5: help the under as well if Wlawford takes that approach.

533
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:35,159
Speaker 5: All right, let's move on to the rest of the slate,

534
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 5: FBS slate that is, and we'll go through conference by

535
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 5: conference alphabetically. We'll start in the AAC, Tulsa and Tulane.

536
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,639
Speaker 5: I'm going back to the well with Tulsa. This team

537
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 5: continues to be undervalued as an underdog. They can never

538
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:53,399
Speaker 5: win these games. You know, they even blew it against

539
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 5: SMU as twelve point underdogs. There are twelve point underdogs

540
00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:00,439
Speaker 5: at SMU now ten and a half point under dogs

541
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 5: at Tulane. But they should have won that game. I

542
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 5: mean it ended up going to overtime. You know, they

543
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:06,920
Speaker 5: didn't cover against Navy, but as I said all week

544
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 5: that three to three five against Navy, Navy shreds them

545
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 5: every single year. It's a horrible matchup. They covered as

546
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 5: a dog at Cincy. You know, they covered as a

547
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 5: dog against Memphis last week and almost won the game

548
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 5: against Oklahoma State earlier in the year, they were up

549
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:20,120
Speaker 5: in the second half and Oklahoma State broke a run

550
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 5: running out the clock. So this team continues to outperform,

551
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 5: and I think it's just because of their record. But

552
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 5: their defense. Their offensive line is bad, they are undisciplined,

553
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 5: but their defenses plays well. They'll hit enough plays on

554
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 5: offense to stay competitive. The other factor here also Tulane

555
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 5: always comes out slow every single game, and they might

556
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,600
Speaker 5: come out really slow this week. Luckily they came back

557
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 5: and got us to cover against Navy last week, but

558
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 5: Tulane has to be devastated. I mean, this team had

559
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,680
Speaker 5: all of the optimism in the world after that huge start.

560
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 5: They were going to Memphis and they got blown out

561
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 5: forty seven to seventeen. Next week they're at Navy, still

562
00:25:57,720 --> 00:25:59,879
Speaker 5: have a shot in the AAC in that division, but

563
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:01,919
Speaker 5: they have to win that game, and they lose it

564
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,200
Speaker 5: on a fifty yard Navy field goal as time expired.

565
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 5: They're coming all the way back. So now they come

566
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:08,680
Speaker 5: home for Tulsa. They still are playing for Bowl Eligibot.

567
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:10,640
Speaker 5: I mean, they need one more win. They have four

568
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 5: more games left. It's not the easiest schedule, but this

569
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 5: screams flat spot for just a really disappointed.

570
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 2: TWU lane team.

571
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 5: And they have their running backs, they've had injuries in

572
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,200
Speaker 5: their backfield as well. So I'm going back to the

573
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 5: wall with Tulsa's a double digit dog.

574
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 4: Anything there for you, I completely agree. The only reason

575
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:27,919
Speaker 4: I didn't pay attention to this line all week is

576
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 4: because I had it set at twelve and a half

577
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:31,520
Speaker 4: and it was lower. So I mean, anything they would

578
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:33,359
Speaker 4: have got to thirteen would have got my attention. But

579
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 4: the cases that you make for two lane and the

580
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 4: reasons you know for them not being in this gift

581
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 4: ball game, I'm just not realizing the two lane is

582
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,160
Speaker 4: heading into a buy after this. So how much do they,

583
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,159
Speaker 4: you know, want to put up a big score, put

584
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 4: in a whole bunch of effort here when they might

585
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 4: be struggling, you know, just with bumps and bruises and

586
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,159
Speaker 4: the physicality of their schedule, just to get into a

587
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:53,119
Speaker 4: bye week against a Tulsa team here. And you know,

588
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:55,119
Speaker 4: we said this last week. The reason we like Tulsa.

589
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:57,399
Speaker 4: You know, they're covering and they're keeping it within one score,

590
00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:00,080
Speaker 4: and they're they're keeping it close against teams that are

591
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 4: dominantly good at the pass Tulsa is fifteenth in the

592
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 4: country an opponent passing success rate, and you know two

593
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 4: lane can can do both. I mean they can run

594
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,680
Speaker 4: and pass, but you know they're going to be able.

595
00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:13,040
Speaker 4: Tulsa is going to be able to take that aspect,

596
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:15,439
Speaker 4: the passing aspect away from two lane, which is going

597
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 4: to give more value to the double digit number. And

598
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 4: I can see right now that this is heading to

599
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 4: ten and and it may pick up and even get

600
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:24,199
Speaker 4: into single digits. So I like that. I'm probably going

601
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 4: to be joining you.

602
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, And Tulsa has two home games after this, and

603
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 5: then you know, then they're at ECU to close the year.

604
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 5: One of the home games is UCF, but the other

605
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:37,360
Speaker 5: hit games against Houston and ECU, which are winnable.

606
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:40,880
Speaker 2: So this is their last shot at they're.

607
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:45,120
Speaker 5: Two and six at any hope of getting to a bowl, right,

608
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:46,720
Speaker 5: So if they lose this game, they're not going to

609
00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 5: a bowl. If they win it, they have a shot.

610
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:52,720
Speaker 5: So you know, this team continues to fight, which I like.

611
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 5: And the other you know, big game in the AC

612
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:58,679
Speaker 5: which almost qualified as a marquee game is between SMU

613
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:03,200
Speaker 5: and Memphis. Defeated SMU at eight no. At Memphis who's

614
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 5: seven and one Memphis here is a up to a

615
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:09,159
Speaker 5: five and a half point favorite. I remember tweeting out

616
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,199
Speaker 5: when this came out, this line is gonna move. This

617
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 5: line is wrong at Memphis minus three. I just think

618
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:17,240
Speaker 5: Memphis is the better team, especially with Roberson one of

619
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 5: their best receivers, SEM's best receivers. I don't think it's

620
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 5: gonna play, but Memphis looked. I think that this line

621
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 5: opened at three just because SMU is undefeated at eight. No,

622
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 5: but if you really look at it, SMU should have

623
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:31,040
Speaker 5: lost to Tulsa and they could have easily lost. I

624
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 5: mean it was a miracle win miracle, and they could

625
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:36,959
Speaker 5: have easily lost to Houston. But they won those games.

626
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:38,960
Speaker 5: Credit to them. But they're eight to noh, you know,

627
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:42,000
Speaker 5: they're number fifteen in the country and the Memphis seven

628
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 5: and one. But the only game they lost was against

629
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,479
Speaker 5: Temple in the game that they had no business losing

630
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 5: out right at least, you know, in that game they

631
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,479
Speaker 5: had I think they had three turnovers early on. They

632
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 5: outgained Temple in that game four ninety two to four

633
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 5: to fifty six over a yard per play better.

634
00:28:57,640 --> 00:28:59,600
Speaker 2: So that's why I thought you were getting initial value

635
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 2: with Memphis. Loss of Roberson is big. Memphis is rolling.

636
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 2: This team is legit. I think they get this win

637
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 2: at home in the Liberty Bowl. I like it up,

638
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 2: you know, up up to six, I'd play it.

639
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 4: There's something about SMU that bothers me. I get I'll

640
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 4: get to that, but you're completely right. SMU is living

641
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 4: on borrowed time. You know, these one possession victories against Houston,

642
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 4: against Tulsa, against TCU, their net turnovers in those games

643
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:25,960
Speaker 4: was plus five. So you can say that there's just

644
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 4: been a little bit of luck has been on their

645
00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 4: side with the way that the ball has bounced. And

646
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 4: if you look at the advanced stats, you know Memphis

647
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 4: is going to have a lot of advantages here. Their

648
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 4: twenty eighth and rushing explosiveness something SMU is around ninetieth.

649
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 4: And defending you know Memphis is fifth, and passing explosiveness

650
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,960
Speaker 4: something SMU is sixty six. That so there's a lot

651
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 4: of things and the what's going to happen in between

652
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 4: the goal lines that's going to really favor Memphis with

653
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 4: an explosive offense. So Memphis is a complete team and

654
00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 4: they should get the win here. The thing that just

655
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 4: really bothers me about SMU is that they're eleventh in

656
00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 4: Havoc and their twentieth and Havoc allowed, and Memphis is

657
00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 4: on the other end of the spectrum in those categories.

658
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 4: So there's a thing with this number where I knew

659
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 4: it was going to rise, like you, I knew it

660
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 4: was going to take off and it was going to

661
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 4: go up, and I just kind of had this feeling

662
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 4: that at some point, either I'm going to be contrarian

663
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 4: in the fact that I'm going to take the last

664
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 4: SMU number out there, no matter how far this steams,

665
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 4: or I'm going to take an under on this game,

666
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 4: which I project to be about sixty four. I think

667
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 4: I think over seventy one is a little bit too

668
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 4: much considering, you know, some of the things that these

669
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:27,960
Speaker 4: teams won't have at their advantage. So I'm going to

670
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 4: be go ahead and I'm going to wait for both

671
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 4: numbers to steam, and I'll make a decision. But more

672
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 4: than likely, I think I'm going to have an under

673
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 4: on this game.

674
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 5: Fair enough, all right, let's move on to the big twelve,

675
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:39,479
Speaker 5: and it is you know, if West Virginia Baylor tonight,

676
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 5: but it's one of the worst Big Twelve slates. You'll

677
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:46,320
Speaker 5: see there's only three games. Two on Saturday, TCU at

678
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 5: Oak State. If you can figure out Oak State, God

679
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 5: bless you. Looks like Tylan Wallace is out for the

680
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 5: year with a torn acl not confirmed yet but pretty

681
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 5: good sources saying that. But that lines down to two

682
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 5: and a half and then Kansas State, Kansas Kansas State

683
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 5: minus five and a half minus at Kansas I took

684
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 5: Kansas plus six and you do have a slight hangover

685
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 5: effect after that win for Kansas State. This is a

686
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,960
Speaker 5: huge game for Kansas after two straight wins, trying to

687
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 5: get to Bowl eligibility. Could be a huge game for

688
00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 5: Puka and the rushing attack and that new explosive offense

689
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 5: for Kansas. What do you see in either one of

690
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 5: those games or both?

691
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:22,000
Speaker 4: Kansas is me right now because I'm about to go

692
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 4: to Vegas. I'm just going to be at the craps

693
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:25,719
Speaker 4: table or the blackjack table. I'm just gonna let it roll.

694
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 4: If I get a hot streak, I was gonna let

695
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 4: it roll. And I think that's what Kansas football is

696
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 4: right now. Kansas State may be hungover from a game

697
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 4: against Oklahoma. I mean they're very well coached, so we

698
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,120
Speaker 4: don't really know how they're going to respond in such

699
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 4: a huge win. You know, but Kansas is still putting

700
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 4: up yards eleven hundred yards over the past two weeks,

701
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 4: and the Jayhawks are explosive. Their twenty seventh in rush explosiveness,

702
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 4: their eighteenth in pass explosiveness. Kansas State is one hundred

703
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:49,880
Speaker 4: and twenty eighth, and opponent rush explosives is Pooka Williams.

704
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 4: If you're on any fantasy college fantasy teams, you're gonna

705
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 4: get into, you know, some some daily fantasy stuff and

706
00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 4: pull a running back. I'd pull Pooka Williams. But as

707
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 4: far as handicapping this game, I mean, the number about

708
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 4: where I thought it was. The projected total is about

709
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 4: where I thought it was. I think Vegas is starting

710
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 4: to wake up to what Kansas is doing offensively. I

711
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 4: think they have adjusted to the numbers correctly. I'm a

712
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 4: hot guy at the craps table right now and I'm

713
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:12,960
Speaker 4: playing over in Jayhawks until I lose.

714
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 5: All right, let's move on to the Big Ten. I mean,

715
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 5: this is a really gross Big ten slate. You know,

716
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 5: you have Nebraska minus three and a half of Purdue.

717
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 5: I have no interest there. I'm probably gonna end up

718
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 5: playing Rutgers. Illinois off back to back wins is double

719
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 5: digit underdogs. I mean last week there were nine and

720
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 5: a half, but somewhere around there, and then they'd beat

721
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:35,720
Speaker 5: Wisconsin and now I think that they're just a little

722
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 5: inflated in the market.

723
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:37,480
Speaker 2: And Rotgers.

724
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:39,479
Speaker 5: You know, we talked about Snyder being available if they

725
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 5: need them, but Langan finally got some confidence last week

726
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:44,720
Speaker 5: against Liberty, which I think will go a huge way.

727
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:48,280
Speaker 5: I just think this line is way over inflated. I

728
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 5: think it should be closer to two touchdowns in twenty

729
00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:52,720
Speaker 5: and especially if we get twenty one, I will be

730
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:55,239
Speaker 5: all over Rutgers. It's gross, I know, but we were

731
00:32:55,280 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 5: there last week as well. Northwestern Indiana Cats. It's the

732
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 5: first night game at the Memorial Stadium in what fifty

733
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 5: five years, and they have to watch the Northwestern offense.

734
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 5: I mean, Northwestern has to be the best under team

735
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 5: in the history of Power five conferences. They just have

736
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:14,160
Speaker 5: a really good defense and they cannot move. They can't

737
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 5: get a first down, so that over under is crashed

738
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:19,480
Speaker 5: down to forty four. I think it's under or nothing

739
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 5: in that game, although you've lost a lot of value now.

740
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 2: Crossing from forty seven to forty four.

741
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 5: Then we have Michigan Maryland, Michigan lank twenty one at

742
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 5: Maryland Maryland, all.

743
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 2: Kinds of injuries. I mean, this is a mess.

744
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 5: That's to you know, you have two coaches, Loxley and

745
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:34,280
Speaker 5: the offensive coordinator familiar with each other.

746
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 2: I know you have an angle on that.

747
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 5: What do you like in Terps Wolverines?

748
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, before we get to that, I think the Rutgers

749
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 4: game is interesting that. I mean, they were able to

750
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:44,640
Speaker 4: push the liberty around the churches on both sides of

751
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 4: it was really good watch. It should be able, it

752
00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 4: should be fun to see if they carry that over.

753
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 4: And remember, this is the last I don't want to

754
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 4: say easy game, but this is the last time that

755
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 4: Rutgers can be competitive in a game. I mean, their

756
00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 4: remaining schedule is just murderer's row between Penn State, Ohio State,

757
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 4: I think Michigan. I think that's how they're closing out

758
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:05,840
Speaker 4: the season. So I mean, this is it.

759
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 2: If wins down, they go to a ball By the way.

760
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 4: That's hilarious. I fell out of my chair. I know

761
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 4: it's a huge spread, but this is the last time,

762
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 4: they're going to be able to be competitive. And don't

763
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 4: forget a thing at that highly touted recruit, the Snyder

764
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 4: kid at quarterback and this may and they've saved his

765
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:20,799
Speaker 4: red shirt enough that he can get some experience in

766
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:23,120
Speaker 4: this game. So I actually like Rutgers in that one too.

767
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:25,720
Speaker 4: But I'm going to flip over to a very ugly

768
00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:28,239
Speaker 4: gross I didn't want to play it, but I have

769
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,799
Speaker 4: to play because the numbers out of control. I see

770
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:32,959
Speaker 4: the spot, I see the angle, all this other junk,

771
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:35,440
Speaker 4: and that has to do with Michigan and Maryland, Mike Loxley,

772
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 4: Josh Gaddis angle is I'm not sure how it plays

773
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 4: into the game other than the fact that I think

774
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 4: Mike Loxley, head coach from Maryland, is going to be

775
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 4: more focused on both sides of the ball of getting

776
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:47,759
Speaker 4: the best that he can get out of his team

777
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:51,400
Speaker 4: in this game because his relationship with his former assistant

778
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 4: Josh Gaddis, who's the offensive coordinator at Michigan, has deteriorated

779
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:57,880
Speaker 4: since they both left Alabama last year. There was a

780
00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:00,160
Speaker 4: little bit of a dust up in August first, even

781
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 4: though who started it, but you know, Josh Gatt is

782
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 4: saying I designed the plays. Mike Loxley might have called

783
00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 4: the plays, but I'm the one that designed the plays.

784
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 4: We all know, you know who Monday through Friday, who

785
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:11,880
Speaker 4: it was in the meeting room and the offensive coaching

786
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,880
Speaker 4: staff meeting room, who was designing the plays? And Locksley,

787
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:18,200
Speaker 4: you know, only retorted with there's a difference between designing

788
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:19,640
Speaker 4: the plays and then being the one that makes the

789
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 4: decisions that actually call the plays. And so I don't

790
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:24,800
Speaker 4: think these two were mincing words. They just do not

791
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,320
Speaker 4: like each other, not even being nice about it. So

792
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 4: I think you're going to get a full effort focus

793
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 4: out of Mike Loxley as to where Michigan. You know,

794
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:35,680
Speaker 4: they're coming off two primetime games lost against Penn State,

795
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:38,920
Speaker 4: huge win against Notre Dame, so we could find them

796
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 4: flat and what is a noon kick on the road here,

797
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:43,480
Speaker 4: And remember Michigan's just not the same team on the

798
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 4: road as they are at home. In these kind of games,

799
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 4: at home, they bully people around, they'd be the by

800
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 4: a whole bunch of points. That's just not what Michigan

801
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:50,880
Speaker 4: has ever been on the road when they've been in

802
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 4: this spot is a big favorite. Maryland is getting healthy.

803
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 4: Their left guard Terrence Davis is back, their star running

804
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 4: back Anthony McFarlane. He's one hundred percent. And you got

805
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 4: to remember Josh Jackson coming in the game game last week.

806
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,000
Speaker 4: The game plan in the scheme wasn't built for him

807
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:05,319
Speaker 4: last week. He had to come in this week. He's

808
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 4: getting all the reps with the first string. I made

809
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 4: this game Maryland plus nineteen, so once it got to

810
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:11,839
Speaker 4: twenty one and a half, and I don't think it's

811
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 4: done moving. I think twenty one a half is going

812
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:15,479
Speaker 4: to be widely available for everyone looking at the market

813
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:16,960
Speaker 4: right now. So I would just kind of hang out

814
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:20,279
Speaker 4: and grab the hook on this. But the Michigan could

815
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 4: run three hundred four hundred yards on the ground against

816
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:25,880
Speaker 4: this Maryland front seven. I understand that, But how badly

817
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:27,719
Speaker 4: do they want to do that in this game? And

818
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 4: how focus has Locksley been on coaching his team up

819
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:31,800
Speaker 4: this week. The only thing that scares me in that

820
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:34,359
Speaker 4: game why I might not be getting involved. I mean,

821
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:36,760
Speaker 4: Jackson still, he just looks lost.

822
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:38,840
Speaker 2: He is so shuck. He has no confidence right now.

823
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:41,040
Speaker 5: Some of the throat he makes what happened to that's

824
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:43,440
Speaker 5: so bad? I don't know Maryland is one of these

825
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 5: teams this year. That's just they go out and they'll

826
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 5: just roll some shitty team that they're better than. And

827
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:50,600
Speaker 5: then anytime they play a team at the Pulse, they.

828
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:52,360
Speaker 2: Get smashed me.

829
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 5: And that's what's happened to them against anybody. But you

830
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 5: make some good points there, and it does appear that

831
00:36:57,239 --> 00:36:59,279
Speaker 5: there's some value in the number. All right, let's move

832
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 5: on to the confident to USA. You want to talk

833
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 5: about an ugly Conference USA slate, and the Conference USA

834
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:07,839
Speaker 5: slate is usually ugly.

835
00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:09,279
Speaker 2: We have U TEP.

836
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:14,279
Speaker 4: We're talking minor nation out in the West Texans town

837
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:15,840
Speaker 4: of l Pastor.

838
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 5: Picks up U TEP catching twenty three at North Texas.

839
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 2: No thank you.

840
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 4: If there's a team that U TIP can beat, I

841
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 4: think it might be North Texas. North Texas is really bad,

842
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 4: Like they're really bad. I don't know.

843
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:32,280
Speaker 5: We'll see Marshall Lank ten and a half at Rice.

844
00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 5: I'm tempted by Rice again, but I'm just absolutely devastated

845
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:38,640
Speaker 5: still from how they didn't cover last week.

846
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:41,040
Speaker 4: Can I throw a shout out to our to podcast

847
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:43,840
Speaker 4: friend Brett McMurphy real quick. He put out this great

848
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:47,760
Speaker 4: article about the band that the all the head coaches

849
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 4: listen to like the music that they're into, and like

850
00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 4: what their top band is that they listen to. Did

851
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:54,359
Speaker 4: you see what Doc Hollidays is. No, he doesn't have one.

852
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:56,719
Speaker 4: He like, doesn't listen to music at whatsoever. He was

853
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:58,799
Speaker 4: the only one on the list. He said, I don't

854
00:37:58,800 --> 00:37:59,439
Speaker 4: listen to music.

855
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:00,520
Speaker 2: It was the crazy.

856
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 4: It was like you and I have talked about how

857
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 4: conservative Holiday is, but the fact that he responded like

858
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:06,640
Speaker 4: he's the only coach he responded, like, I don't listen

859
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:07,279
Speaker 4: to music at all.

860
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:09,480
Speaker 2: That's hilarious. I did not see that. I got to

861
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:09,920
Speaker 2: look that up.

862
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:12,360
Speaker 5: It's a gross coffeece essay slate. But you know we

863
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 5: have UAB Tennessee. Tennessee is laying twelve at home to

864
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:20,800
Speaker 5: UAB and UAB is six and one and Charlotte catching

865
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 5: three and a half now at home against Middle Tennessee

866
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:25,239
Speaker 5: State is fairly interesting for two three and five teams.

867
00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:27,640
Speaker 2: It's an important game for both. What do you see

868
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:28,399
Speaker 2: in the conference essay?

869
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Charlotte again this week. I'm

870
00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 4: gonna write him. I mean, they should have covered the

871
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:36,400
Speaker 4: game last week. I'm glad they did. But they won outright,

872
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 4: which is one of the craziest comebacks I've ever seen them.

873
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 4: Thirty five, yeah, thirty five twenty one in North Texas.

874
00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:44,239
Speaker 4: I think people don't realize that the forty nine ers

875
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:46,480
Speaker 4: are ninth and explosive rush with Benny LeMay, but they're

876
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:49,719
Speaker 4: also thirty seventh in explosive pass. So this offense can

877
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:51,799
Speaker 4: get it done. That's just a trade of their head

878
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,160
Speaker 4: coach Healy that they got from Austin p And I

879
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 4: think that you know, there's going to be probably calling

880
00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 4: running around in March and April, probably looking for sharks.

881
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 4: The Futures'll be one of the weird people out there

882
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 4: while baseball starts back up. I'll be looking for hitting

883
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:07,719
Speaker 4: forty nine ers futures in Conference USA. But both teams

884
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:09,960
Speaker 4: are three and five. They're in survival mode for bolseason.

885
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 4: Middle Tennessee's you know, with Ashraro Hair, they had a

886
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:14,919
Speaker 4: couple other running backs I think hit one hundred yards

887
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:18,680
Speaker 4: last week. Really pathetic game from Florida International, didn't even

888
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 4: show up in the second half in a storm. You

889
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 4: would think being from Miami that you'd be able to

890
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 4: play and rain. But Middle Tennessee State's defense. Theyre one

891
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:27,600
Speaker 4: hundred and seventh against the rush one hundred and thirteenth

892
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:30,440
Speaker 4: and passing success rate on defense that's just not going

893
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:32,280
Speaker 4: to get it done against this forty nine ers offense.

894
00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 4: Charlotte's going to have every opportunity to have a successful play.

895
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:40,240
Speaker 4: And when Charlotte gets successful plays, they turn into huge plays.

896
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:44,239
Speaker 4: Middle Tennessee State on defense is dead last and sack

897
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 4: rate dead last in the nation. I think Charlotte's going

898
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 4: to be able to if they can, you know, put

899
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:51,680
Speaker 4: some drives together and get some success rate of their

900
00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 4: own going. And we know they could be explosive, but

901
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:55,440
Speaker 4: they need to be able to string things together. But

902
00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:57,600
Speaker 4: I mean, you just watch a couple of the plays

903
00:39:57,640 --> 00:40:00,160
Speaker 4: from last week against North Texas. This Charlotte offense is

904
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:03,239
Speaker 4: jellen right now. They're able to score on anyone. I

905
00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:04,720
Speaker 4: think they're going to do it against Middle Tennessee.

906
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:07,279
Speaker 5: You jellen, you jelling. I'm surprised this line is gone

907
00:40:07,280 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 5: across the three.

908
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to have to look at Charlotte with you.

909
00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 5: Anything involves Vall's uab your boys in Birmingham.

910
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:15,920
Speaker 4: I wrote about that earlier in the week in our

911
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:19,320
Speaker 4: Havoc piece that I wanted UAB pretty bad. It was

912
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:23,240
Speaker 4: one of the biggest discrepancies this week in college football

913
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:25,400
Speaker 4: as far as the Blazers, the ones that are be

914
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 4: able to bring the habit going up against Tennessee. Frankly

915
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:30,520
Speaker 4: is in some sort of conference Sandwich and may not

916
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:33,239
Speaker 4: care about this game whatsoever. UAB fifth in the nation,

917
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:35,760
Speaker 4: Havoc Tennessee ninety ninth and Havoc allowed.

918
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:35,880
Speaker 1: Now.

919
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:37,960
Speaker 4: I know a lot of that is quarterback play and

920
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:39,600
Speaker 4: some of the mistakes that they've made in the past,

921
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:43,320
Speaker 4: but UAB is able to assert their will on defense.

922
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 4: I mean, Bill clark is the head coach, is fantastic.

923
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 4: Circa opened up this line at thirteen, and then everybody

924
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:51,000
Speaker 4: else opened it up at eleven, and it dipped down

925
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 4: to nine and a half at one point before everybody

926
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:56,000
Speaker 4: started buying into Tennessee. As I'm looking across the landscape

927
00:40:56,040 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 4: right now, massive amount of twelve and a half's out there.

928
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:01,680
Speaker 4: I'm going to sit going to be patient as an investor,

929
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:04,200
Speaker 4: I'm going to wait for this to get thirteen. Maybe

930
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:07,280
Speaker 4: some blind Tennessee sec steam can get me a thirteen

931
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:08,799
Speaker 4: and a half and I can buy a little juice

932
00:41:08,840 --> 00:41:11,719
Speaker 4: get up to fourteen, but don't front UAB is going

933
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:14,480
Speaker 4: to be on the card. Money lined is being heavily

934
00:41:14,600 --> 00:41:17,239
Speaker 4: considered for my money line Round Robin for whatever video

935
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:19,600
Speaker 4: I shoot later on tonight. But yeah, I love the

936
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 4: Blazers here.

937
00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:22,959
Speaker 5: Let's move on to the Mountain West, where we will

938
00:41:23,239 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 5: vehemently disagree on a game. Army Air Force air Force

939
00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:32,359
Speaker 5: sixteen point favorite over under forty five. This line's ticked up. Look,

940
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:34,360
Speaker 5: I don't think I've lost an Army game since I

941
00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 5: went against everything I wrote about last week in my

942
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 5: Triple Option betting Guide, which was when I played Michigan

943
00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:46,360
Speaker 5: against Army Service Academies break Models and Army Sticks.

944
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:49,439
Speaker 2: I've been fading them every week for the past month.

945
00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:53,520
Speaker 5: This is an equalizer game for them because the clock's

946
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 5: going to be bleeding.

947
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:55,839
Speaker 2: By the way, I'm going to be on this under

948
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:56,480
Speaker 2: as well. I'm hoping.

949
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 5: I'm trying to get forty six over unders in Service

950
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 5: Academies games since two thousand and five thirty three nine

951
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:05,160
Speaker 5: and one. That's seventy eight point six percent against the close.

952
00:42:05,719 --> 00:42:08,960
Speaker 5: That's a fifty two percent ROI. It's even better if

953
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 5: you look at when it opens. Army Air Force unders

954
00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 5: since two thousand and five, nine to four and one

955
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:16,160
Speaker 5: just under seventy percent they go under by a touchdown

956
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:22,480
Speaker 5: a game. I almost blindly fade service academies as double digit.

957
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 2: Favorites and look as favorites.

958
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 5: Service academies are one, fourteen, one, forty nine and five

959
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:31,920
Speaker 5: since last fifteen years. That's forty three point three percent

960
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:36,439
Speaker 5: double digit, forty percent, fourteen plus thirty nine percent, twenty

961
00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:39,880
Speaker 5: plus thirty four percent, twenty seven plus thirty six percent

962
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:43,760
Speaker 5: favorites in Service Academy games between two service academies seventeen,

963
00:42:43,880 --> 00:42:47,320
Speaker 5: twenty five and one forty and a half percent favorites

964
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 5: over fourteen thirty seven percent In Service Academy games, it's

965
00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:53,440
Speaker 5: always been Army as a dog. Army's been a dog

966
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 5: of more than fourteen eight times in the last fifteen years.

967
00:42:57,120 --> 00:43:01,920
Speaker 5: In a Service Academy game they lost by four, seven, ten, fourteen, seventeen,

968
00:43:02,160 --> 00:43:06,920
Speaker 5: twenty twelve, and twenty eight. Basically got blown out in

969
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:09,600
Speaker 5: one game. The rest they're right there. These two teams

970
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:13,280
Speaker 5: are obviously very familiar with each other. They practice against

971
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 5: the triple option. The clock will be bleeding. Air Force

972
00:43:16,760 --> 00:43:20,320
Speaker 5: is significantly better than Army, but the option is going

973
00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 5: to equalize this game. It's going to give Army a shot.

974
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:26,920
Speaker 5: It's why Army is a straight fade as a favorite,

975
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 5: because the option is a great equalizer against teams that

976
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:34,120
Speaker 5: are in superior to you. It's what happened against Oklahoma,

977
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:36,759
Speaker 5: It's what happened against Michigan. It's what I think is

978
00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:37,440
Speaker 5: going to happen here.

979
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:38,400
Speaker 2: You're going to have a.

980
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:43,720
Speaker 5: Should have a focused Army team that's just been reeling.

981
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:45,239
Speaker 5: Lost at home to Santa This is a team that

982
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:47,279
Speaker 5: didn't lose at home for years. Lost at home to

983
00:43:47,360 --> 00:43:50,600
Speaker 5: San Jose State. They lost that, you know, at Georgia State.

984
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:52,840
Speaker 5: They lost at Western Kentucky, they lost at home the

985
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 5: two lane. They went oh to four in October. You know,

986
00:43:56,840 --> 00:44:00,359
Speaker 5: so now they get a chance at City at three

987
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 5: and five, you know, for Bowl eligibility. They have UMass

988
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:06,560
Speaker 5: at home next week and VMI. This is the game,

989
00:44:07,120 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 5: this is the game that is going to make or

990
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 5: break their season after such a disappointing year. You're going

991
00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:15,560
Speaker 5: to get their best effort here. Air force is significantly

992
00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 5: better offensively and defensively. Option equalizes it auto play for

993
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 5: me catching two touchdowns in a Service Academy game, I.

994
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:27,640
Speaker 4: Can't disagree with anything that you said. I guess ninety

995
00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 4: nine percent agree with everything that you said. The Service

996
00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:33,520
Speaker 4: academy is favored by this much is a joke because

997
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 4: of the triple option, because of the time of possession,

998
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:38,279
Speaker 4: because of how many offensive plays that you have. There's

999
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:41,200
Speaker 4: just not that many possessions. It's like watching the Missouri

1000
00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:43,920
Speaker 4: Valley Conference tournament game in Saint Louis, right, there's just

1001
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:44,879
Speaker 4: not as.

1002
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:48,319
Speaker 5: You're going against another option which you don't benefit from,

1003
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:50,120
Speaker 5: which you normally do, right.

1004
00:44:50,200 --> 00:44:53,920
Speaker 4: And then I'm going to throw that all out the window.

1005
00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:56,319
Speaker 4: I mean, I have never disagreed with you. And how

1006
00:44:56,360 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 4: to handicap service academies, by the book, is how everybody

1007
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:02,399
Speaker 4: should ha cap service academies. And the problem with all

1008
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:05,040
Speaker 4: that is is that Air Force is hot pissed about

1009
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:08,359
Speaker 4: this game, really pissed off so much that they came

1010
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:10,719
Speaker 4: off a blowout of Utah State. They got back to

1011
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:15,200
Speaker 4: the locker room and immediately their head coach reminded them

1012
00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:18,319
Speaker 4: that President Trump and Jeff Munkin both had a laugh

1013
00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 4: at their expense. After Army, the football team went to

1014
00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:23,800
Speaker 4: the nation's capital and was presented with the Commander in

1015
00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:26,680
Speaker 4: chiefs Trophy last year, and Trump's comment was, you know,

1016
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:29,600
Speaker 4: Army beat a air Force team, and air Force is

1017
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 4: really Trump. Trump said, this air Force is really tough

1018
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:33,080
Speaker 4: to beat. They're almost and he turns around, he looks

1019
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:34,879
Speaker 4: at Monkey and he says, they're always tough to beat,

1020
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:37,239
Speaker 4: aren't they? And Munkin said, flat out not that tough.

1021
00:45:37,560 --> 00:45:40,120
Speaker 4: That was brought up. That whole conversation that Trump had

1022
00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 4: with Jeff Munkin was brought up the second they hit

1023
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:44,799
Speaker 4: the locker room from Utah State. The motivation on air

1024
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:47,160
Speaker 4: Force side, I think can't be any higher right now,

1025
00:45:47,719 --> 00:45:50,120
Speaker 4: and the fact that they may be able to contribute

1026
00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:51,759
Speaker 4: to the fact that Army might not make a bowl.

1027
00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:54,839
Speaker 4: Air Force is just having peak offense right now. Their

1028
00:45:54,920 --> 00:45:57,080
Speaker 4: sixth in line yards, they're first in the nation and

1029
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:59,080
Speaker 4: stuff rate. On the offensive side of the ball, they're

1030
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:01,000
Speaker 4: getting to the line of screen, they're going even farther.

1031
00:46:01,239 --> 00:46:03,200
Speaker 4: They're doing what they have to do to have successful

1032
00:46:03,200 --> 00:46:06,440
Speaker 4: plays on the ground in the offense. Army's defense completely

1033
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:08,759
Speaker 4: on the other side, the defense is one hundred. In

1034
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:11,319
Speaker 4: line yards, they're ninety seventh and stuff rate. They can't

1035
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:13,759
Speaker 4: stop anybody from filling the gaps. I think the air

1036
00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:18,239
Speaker 4: Force offense is going to run wild in this game,

1037
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:20,719
Speaker 4: and I think it's going to be a gentleman's run

1038
00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:23,160
Speaker 4: up of the score. So I think this is the

1039
00:46:23,200 --> 00:46:25,560
Speaker 4: thing where air Force has a clear advantage on the

1040
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:28,080
Speaker 4: ground and they are going to run Army out of

1041
00:46:28,120 --> 00:46:28,520
Speaker 4: the building.

1042
00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:31,800
Speaker 5: The Army stinks. I've said this before. They're on offense

1043
00:46:31,880 --> 00:46:34,719
Speaker 5: and defense and they might get blown out here. But

1044
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:37,600
Speaker 5: I'm not worried about the motivation of Army kids. They're

1045
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:39,600
Speaker 5: going to be up for this game. And look, if

1046
00:46:39,640 --> 00:46:42,359
Speaker 5: I lose it, I'm fine with it. I the one

1047
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 5: time I ever strayed, I got burnt, and I will

1048
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:47,759
Speaker 5: not get burnt here. If I lose, I'll tip my

1049
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:50,160
Speaker 5: cap to air Force. I'll tip my cap to your

1050
00:46:50,280 --> 00:46:52,560
Speaker 5: trump angle and move on and do the same thing

1051
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:56,719
Speaker 5: again in the future with service academies. All right, packed,

1052
00:46:56,719 --> 00:46:58,280
Speaker 5: So let's move out of the PAC twelve. We already

1053
00:46:58,280 --> 00:47:02,560
Speaker 5: covered Utah, Washington. We have Colorado UCLA. Colorado is intriguing me.

1054
00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:04,840
Speaker 5: I mean, the UCLA is playing really well, but Colorado

1055
00:47:04,920 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 5: with their receivers against at UCLA pass defense at seven,

1056
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:10,359
Speaker 5: I think might be worth a look. You know, if

1057
00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:14,160
Speaker 5: Oregon State at Arizona, which could turn into a shootout

1058
00:47:14,160 --> 00:47:16,160
Speaker 5: over unders up to seventy two, and then the most

1059
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:19,880
Speaker 5: intriguing game, Oregon at USC. Oregon's lank four and a

1060
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:23,120
Speaker 5: half points here over under sixty two. There's a couple

1061
00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:24,959
Speaker 5: I want to play USC and I'm probably I'm waiting

1062
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:27,480
Speaker 5: to get updates on all of their defenders and it's

1063
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:29,520
Speaker 5: so hard to get. But it looks like some of

1064
00:47:29,560 --> 00:47:31,880
Speaker 5: their guys are going to be back. Their linebacker Drake Jackson.

1065
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:33,480
Speaker 5: You know guys are going to play in the NFL.

1066
00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:35,880
Speaker 5: But there's a couple others. I mean, USC has been

1067
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:37,839
Speaker 5: decimated by injury, especially on the defensive side of the ball,

1068
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:40,120
Speaker 5: end a running back, but especially on the defensive side

1069
00:47:40,120 --> 00:47:41,960
Speaker 5: of the ball. But I throw out at some of

1070
00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:43,719
Speaker 5: the results that we've seen the last couple of weeks.

1071
00:47:43,880 --> 00:47:46,759
Speaker 5: I also think that Slovas plays a lot better at home,

1072
00:47:47,160 --> 00:47:49,800
Speaker 5: young kid. He's made some mistakes on the road, but

1073
00:47:49,920 --> 00:47:53,160
Speaker 5: this offense is explosive, and we saw Oregon get picked

1074
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:55,239
Speaker 5: apart the last couple of weeks. Now, one thing maybe

1075
00:47:55,280 --> 00:47:58,160
Speaker 5: working in their favor is they saw a very similar

1076
00:47:58,239 --> 00:48:00,960
Speaker 5: offense last week in Washington. Staterobably should have beat Oregon,

1077
00:48:01,120 --> 00:48:03,560
Speaker 5: but you know it benefited Utah. I remember when Utah

1078
00:48:03,680 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 5: played USC and lost, and the next week they played

1079
00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:11,759
Speaker 5: Washington State and basically shut them completely down. But I

1080
00:48:11,840 --> 00:48:13,840
Speaker 5: still think this is a few too many points. This

1081
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:16,759
Speaker 5: USC offense is explosive. They get some of their defenders back.

1082
00:48:17,400 --> 00:48:19,959
Speaker 5: I think I'm playing the Trojans. What are your thoughts

1083
00:48:20,040 --> 00:48:21,960
Speaker 5: on this end or or anything else in the Pac twelve.

1084
00:48:22,160 --> 00:48:24,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, and that's the reason that I played USC early

1085
00:48:24,960 --> 00:48:26,800
Speaker 4: in the week I have the number power rank of

1086
00:48:26,880 --> 00:48:28,200
Speaker 4: five and a half. It was at five and a

1087
00:48:28,239 --> 00:48:29,920
Speaker 4: half earlier in the weekend. I went ahead and take it.

1088
00:48:29,960 --> 00:48:31,640
Speaker 4: Took it, I would take it down to three and

1089
00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:34,640
Speaker 4: a half. And I think that's probably what's going to

1090
00:48:34,680 --> 00:48:36,359
Speaker 4: happen if we get the announcement of some of these

1091
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:39,520
Speaker 4: defensive ends and linebackers and even the running back Stephen Carr.

1092
00:48:39,560 --> 00:48:43,480
Speaker 4: I mean to me, that's big because while Oregon's defense

1093
00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:46,319
Speaker 4: got plenty of repetition in practice against air raid last

1094
00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:47,920
Speaker 4: week and they weren't able to stop it, and they

1095
00:48:47,960 --> 00:48:50,680
Speaker 4: allowed what four hundred yards of passing against Washington State,

1096
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:54,239
Speaker 4: you know, having Stephen Carr back against Oregon's defense is

1097
00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:56,759
Speaker 4: at least something else that USC can go to. But

1098
00:48:56,840 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 4: you see gets plenty of players back on both sides

1099
00:48:58,680 --> 00:49:00,600
Speaker 4: of the ball that they didn't have in the Colorado

1100
00:49:00,640 --> 00:49:02,960
Speaker 4: game where they had to make a massive comeback. Cornerback

1101
00:49:03,000 --> 00:49:05,759
Speaker 4: Chris Steele's back, defensive end, Christian Rector, and there's just

1102
00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:07,959
Speaker 4: a host of other players that are important that haven't

1103
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:10,239
Speaker 4: been announced. And so Oregon, you know, they had issues

1104
00:49:10,280 --> 00:49:13,240
Speaker 4: against a raid once again, something about christ Ball coaching teams.

1105
00:49:13,480 --> 00:49:15,560
Speaker 4: There's a really long history where he just has not

1106
00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:17,400
Speaker 4: been able to figure it out whatsoever. Now, I know

1107
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:20,200
Speaker 4: Wazoo's playing better defense, but the fact that they were

1108
00:49:20,239 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 4: able to throw for that much against an Oregon team

1109
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:24,560
Speaker 4: that's being considered for the College Football Playoff really tells

1110
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:26,960
Speaker 4: me something here. But USC has top ten passing success

1111
00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:29,640
Speaker 4: rate numbers much like Wazoo, but the Trojans have a

1112
00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 4: much more efficient defense against the past. That's the difference

1113
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:35,959
Speaker 4: between Wazoo and USC's. USC can really play against the past.

1114
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:37,719
Speaker 4: But I'm not even sure if Herbert's going to throw

1115
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:40,759
Speaker 4: that much because I mean, the Oregon has turned into

1116
00:49:41,320 --> 00:49:43,839
Speaker 4: a run first team, They've turned into a bruising team.

1117
00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:45,600
Speaker 4: I think Herbert, I mean, you want to talk about

1118
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:47,319
Speaker 4: a guy who's fallen off the face of the earth.

1119
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:49,920
Speaker 4: As far as a Heisman discussion, it'd be Trevor Lawrence

1120
00:49:49,960 --> 00:49:53,000
Speaker 4: and Justin Herbert. You know, Oregon's centered around the rush,

1121
00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:56,040
Speaker 4: but USC's tenth and opponent red zone touchdown scoring. They're

1122
00:49:56,120 --> 00:49:58,600
Speaker 4: really good in the red zone on defense, and they

1123
00:49:58,680 --> 00:50:00,440
Speaker 4: get a lot of good players back, So you know,

1124
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:02,759
Speaker 4: I think anything over a field goal, I think you're

1125
00:50:02,800 --> 00:50:03,960
Speaker 4: taking USC in this game.

1126
00:50:04,560 --> 00:50:06,080
Speaker 2: USC. You know they do that.

1127
00:50:06,239 --> 00:50:09,000
Speaker 5: They their guys are banged up, but they got through Colorado,

1128
00:50:09,080 --> 00:50:11,160
Speaker 5: they got through Arizona. I think if anyone's on the

1129
00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:13,839
Speaker 5: border line here, they're going to bring them back this week,

1130
00:50:14,040 --> 00:50:16,919
Speaker 5: and they they're important to get those guys back because

1131
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:19,720
Speaker 5: without them, you can run all over USC. With Oregon's

1132
00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:22,160
Speaker 5: offensive line, that would have been a huge problem. But

1133
00:50:22,400 --> 00:50:24,319
Speaker 5: it looks like at least a few of them, if

1134
00:50:24,400 --> 00:50:26,440
Speaker 5: not most, are going to be back. And I think

1135
00:50:26,520 --> 00:50:29,800
Speaker 5: that's the difference with this explosive USC offense that no

1136
00:50:29,840 --> 00:50:32,400
Speaker 5: one really can stop anything in Colorado Ucla.

1137
00:50:32,600 --> 00:50:34,200
Speaker 4: I mean, we've been riding UCLA for a couple of

1138
00:50:34,239 --> 00:50:37,000
Speaker 4: weeks now, but Dorian Thompson Robinson was upgraded to probable.

1139
00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:39,000
Speaker 4: I think if there's anything going on there, I'm going

1140
00:50:39,080 --> 00:50:41,560
Speaker 4: to take an under. I think the number is projected

1141
00:50:41,680 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 4: way too high over what I have right now. Ten points.

1142
00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:45,000
Speaker 4: I'm ten points more.

1143
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:47,120
Speaker 5: I'm going to look at Colorado. Their defensive been playing

1144
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:50,680
Speaker 5: a little better. They can force some turnovers, and I

1145
00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:53,280
Speaker 5: think that their receivers can have some success against UCLA.

1146
00:50:53,320 --> 00:50:55,399
Speaker 5: Remember this is the UCLA team that we have been riding,

1147
00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:57,920
Speaker 5: but just you know, three weeks ago, go have shredded

1148
00:50:58,000 --> 00:50:58,680
Speaker 5: by Oregon.

1149
00:50:58,760 --> 00:50:59,480
Speaker 2: Stay at home, all.

1150
00:50:59,480 --> 00:51:01,279
Speaker 5: Right, let's move on to the SEC. We pretty much

1151
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:03,840
Speaker 5: covered everything here Arkansas, Miss State. You have Auburn like

1152
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:08,880
Speaker 5: nineteen and a half at home against Old Miss Ama s.

1153
00:51:10,440 --> 00:51:10,680
Speaker 2: SI.

1154
00:51:12,440 --> 00:51:16,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, and South Carolina like fifteen at home against Vanderbilt.

1155
00:51:17,120 --> 00:51:19,279
Speaker 2: Gross, I want no part of you. There anything there

1156
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:19,640
Speaker 2: and for you.

1157
00:51:20,719 --> 00:51:22,719
Speaker 4: I think I actually might end up on Vanderbilt. I

1158
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:24,759
Speaker 4: mean they're playing for their lives right now. I think

1159
00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:26,680
Speaker 4: Mason is playing for his job and the team is

1160
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:29,800
Speaker 4: playing you know, have everything to play for. In South Carolina,

1161
00:51:30,080 --> 00:51:31,920
Speaker 4: I mean there just comes a point in the season

1162
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:34,640
Speaker 4: where you've played the number one strength of schedule. You

1163
00:51:34,760 --> 00:51:37,920
Speaker 4: got screwed, completely screwed out of a win against Florida

1164
00:51:38,080 --> 00:51:40,239
Speaker 4: with some of the worst SEC officiating that I've ever

1165
00:51:40,280 --> 00:51:41,680
Speaker 4: seen in my life, and the team just has not

1166
00:51:41,760 --> 00:51:44,320
Speaker 4: been the same since. But Vanderbilt is a team that

1167
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:47,080
Speaker 4: seems to be going, you know, at least motivated to

1168
00:51:47,120 --> 00:51:49,920
Speaker 4: play and motivated to win. So Vanderbilt may be a

1169
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:52,879
Speaker 4: play if I can get it up to seventeen's kind

1170
00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:55,200
Speaker 4: of tweeting around and neutral land right now, you.

1171
00:51:55,239 --> 00:51:55,840
Speaker 2: Know what I'm here for.

1172
00:51:56,000 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 5: South Carolina final game of the year needs to win

1173
00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:01,120
Speaker 5: to go to a bowl against Clemson to also ruin,

1174
00:52:01,440 --> 00:52:03,560
Speaker 5: which should be to ruin their playoff hopes because one

1175
00:52:03,640 --> 00:52:05,919
Speaker 5: loss cleanses be out. I don't think it's gonna happen,

1176
00:52:05,920 --> 00:52:09,080
Speaker 5: but would be interesting for that rivalry. All right, before

1177
00:52:09,120 --> 00:52:10,840
Speaker 5: we go three and out, let's take a look at

1178
00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:11,520
Speaker 5: the Sun Belt.

1179
00:52:11,960 --> 00:52:14,720
Speaker 4: Don't let the latest come between you and the Bilt.

1180
00:52:15,520 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 5: Troy Lane one at Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State Lank two

1181
00:52:19,440 --> 00:52:25,040
Speaker 5: at Louisiana Monroe and ul my favorite team, LANK twenty

1182
00:52:25,080 --> 00:52:26,839
Speaker 5: two at home against my least favorite team and your

1183
00:52:26,880 --> 00:52:28,759
Speaker 5: favorite team or ex favorite team, Texas State.

1184
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:29,600
Speaker 2: Anything in the Belt for.

1185
00:52:29,640 --> 00:52:32,080
Speaker 4: You, Well, I mean with Texas State, they're twenty third

1186
00:52:32,120 --> 00:52:34,920
Speaker 4: in defending rush explosiveness, so that's highly important against a

1187
00:52:34,960 --> 00:52:37,200
Speaker 4: team like ULL, So I would look for them to

1188
00:52:37,239 --> 00:52:38,960
Speaker 4: take that away from them and maybe kind of focus

1189
00:52:39,000 --> 00:52:41,120
Speaker 4: on under whether they're back in Texas State, because they

1190
00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:42,640
Speaker 4: just can't seem to get out of their own way.

1191
00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:47,279
Speaker 4: Troy is atrocious at defending the pass like they're I

1192
00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:49,880
Speaker 4: think worse in the nation. Right, everybody can pass against them.

1193
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:51,839
Speaker 4: They can. They can have a good high success rate

1194
00:52:51,920 --> 00:52:55,960
Speaker 4: and be explosive. That's not Coastal Carolina's game. So it's

1195
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:58,319
Speaker 4: a game I'm completely staying away in the sun Belt.

1196
00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:00,600
Speaker 5: All right, before we go get out of here. Let's

1197
00:53:00,640 --> 00:53:01,399
Speaker 5: go three and out.

1198
00:53:03,360 --> 00:53:06,839
Speaker 4: Let's make it a quick three and out first down.

1199
00:53:06,920 --> 00:53:08,319
Speaker 2: Let's talk about Friday night lights.

1200
00:53:08,719 --> 00:53:11,560
Speaker 4: Let's hear a gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

1201
00:53:12,400 --> 00:53:13,520
Speaker 2: Let's go play some football.

1202
00:53:13,760 --> 00:53:16,680
Speaker 5: We only have one game on Friday, that's Navy Yukon.

1203
00:53:17,080 --> 00:53:19,879
Speaker 5: We actually disagree on this game slightly. I probably won't

1204
00:53:19,960 --> 00:53:22,680
Speaker 5: end up betting it, but the under intrigues me a

1205
00:53:22,719 --> 00:53:24,320
Speaker 5: little bit, just because I don't know how you Connell

1206
00:53:24,320 --> 00:53:27,080
Speaker 5: score everything. I look at this Navy defense, it's real,

1207
00:53:27,440 --> 00:53:30,759
Speaker 5: and then Navy will probably score at will. But the

1208
00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:32,960
Speaker 5: clock at least will be running and maybe they come

1209
00:53:33,040 --> 00:53:35,400
Speaker 5: out a little flat after you know, a bunch of

1210
00:53:35,640 --> 00:53:38,399
Speaker 5: really big wins in conference at the start, and maybe

1211
00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:40,320
Speaker 5: there's a fumble or you know, they settle for a

1212
00:53:40,400 --> 00:53:43,399
Speaker 5: couple of field goals early. So I like the under

1213
00:53:43,560 --> 00:53:46,799
Speaker 5: a little bit, but you know, I feel like I'm

1214
00:53:46,880 --> 00:53:49,920
Speaker 5: forcing it by playing it, Like I'm not forcing anything tonight.

1215
00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:51,920
Speaker 5: You know, if this game is on a Saturday, I

1216
00:53:52,160 --> 00:53:54,000
Speaker 5: just kick it to the curb. So it's probably what

1217
00:53:54,120 --> 00:53:56,319
Speaker 5: I'll end up doing. But you liked the over here, Yeah, I.

1218
00:53:56,320 --> 00:53:58,719
Speaker 4: Did like the over. I project over. I had fifty one,

1219
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:01,160
Speaker 4: so you know, the fifty five kind of caught my

1220
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:03,080
Speaker 4: attention because it was off of the projection that I

1221
00:54:03,160 --> 00:54:05,640
Speaker 4: initially had. We all know what Navy can do. We're

1222
00:54:05,680 --> 00:54:07,560
Speaker 4: pro Navy on the podcast. We know what they're doing

1223
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:09,399
Speaker 4: in the trench on both sides of the ball. They've

1224
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:11,920
Speaker 4: been fantastic this year. Kind of an odd spot for them.

1225
00:54:11,920 --> 00:54:13,319
Speaker 4: I'm not sure how much they're looking to go up

1226
00:54:13,360 --> 00:54:15,360
Speaker 4: and play this game, especially on a Friday night, but

1227
00:54:15,760 --> 00:54:17,239
Speaker 4: you know, I know Navy is going to be able

1228
00:54:17,320 --> 00:54:19,160
Speaker 4: to score. And the one thing that led me to

1229
00:54:19,239 --> 00:54:21,480
Speaker 4: this over even though I projected at like fifty one.

1230
00:54:21,560 --> 00:54:24,480
Speaker 4: It's at fifty five. There's a couple things about this

1231
00:54:24,719 --> 00:54:27,400
Speaker 4: matchup in the red zone that I just could not

1232
00:54:27,560 --> 00:54:30,439
Speaker 4: get over. What's you know, it's the stat will blow

1233
00:54:30,480 --> 00:54:33,800
Speaker 4: you away. Connecticut is one hundred and thirtieth in the

1234
00:54:33,920 --> 00:54:36,680
Speaker 4: nation and red zone points per attempt. They are the

1235
00:54:36,840 --> 00:54:39,160
Speaker 4: worst team in the nation and allowing their opponents to

1236
00:54:39,239 --> 00:54:41,680
Speaker 4: score touchdowns down in the red zone. Do you know

1237
00:54:41,719 --> 00:54:44,080
Speaker 4: who the number one touchdown scoring team is in the

1238
00:54:44,200 --> 00:54:47,080
Speaker 4: nation in the red zone? Navy. Every time Navy gets

1239
00:54:47,080 --> 00:54:50,359
Speaker 4: down opponent territory pass to forty. They have the best

1240
00:54:50,480 --> 00:54:52,520
Speaker 4: chance in college football the number one versus number one

1241
00:54:52,560 --> 00:54:55,239
Speaker 4: thirty team in scoring points. So I like the over

1242
00:54:55,400 --> 00:54:57,160
Speaker 4: for that reason. But then I turned around and I

1243
00:54:57,200 --> 00:55:00,120
Speaker 4: looked at said, well, Connecticut scored fifty six. Again it's

1244
00:55:00,640 --> 00:55:02,919
Speaker 4: I know it's U Mass's defense, but I mean they've

1245
00:55:03,000 --> 00:55:05,520
Speaker 4: covered in other games. Look deeper into the numbers. They're

1246
00:55:05,520 --> 00:55:08,320
Speaker 4: twelve in the nation rushing explosiveness, and that's something that

1247
00:55:08,320 --> 00:55:10,879
Speaker 4: you can take advantage of against Navy's defense. Now, they're

1248
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:13,520
Speaker 4: excellent in the trench, but when a team has successful plays,

1249
00:55:13,800 --> 00:55:15,360
Speaker 4: Navy's kind of been mid of the pack so I

1250
00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:18,960
Speaker 4: expect Connecticut to bust at least one touchdown run maybe two.

1251
00:55:19,280 --> 00:55:21,640
Speaker 4: And every time Navy gets the ball in New con Territory,

1252
00:55:21,680 --> 00:55:23,840
Speaker 4: I expect a touchdown every single time. I mean, this

1253
00:55:23,960 --> 00:55:26,440
Speaker 4: is number one versus number one thirty. So I like

1254
00:55:26,520 --> 00:55:27,239
Speaker 4: the over in this game.

1255
00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:28,920
Speaker 5: By the way, we didn't mention. I don't think we

1256
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:31,359
Speaker 5: mentioned the MAC. I hate the break it to you guys,

1257
00:55:31,560 --> 00:55:34,560
Speaker 5: but Cato Nelson playing for Akron, and I think I

1258
00:55:34,680 --> 00:55:37,319
Speaker 5: have to play Accord plus six. Shoot me, yeah, Bowling

1259
00:55:37,320 --> 00:55:39,359
Speaker 5: gree should not be a six point there. That game

1260
00:55:39,400 --> 00:55:41,279
Speaker 5: should be It's a coin flip, so it should be

1261
00:55:41,280 --> 00:55:44,600
Speaker 5: Bowling Green minus three at home. All right, let's go

1262
00:55:44,960 --> 00:55:47,560
Speaker 5: to second down here and talk about our favorite overdog.

1263
00:55:47,640 --> 00:55:50,480
Speaker 5: For those not familiar, that's our favorite favorite making fun

1264
00:55:50,520 --> 00:55:53,160
Speaker 5: of a caller that called in and said that overdogs

1265
00:55:53,440 --> 00:55:54,760
Speaker 5: we're the opposite of underdogs.

1266
00:55:54,920 --> 00:55:56,880
Speaker 4: It's called the overdog, Parlay.

1267
00:55:56,920 --> 00:55:57,839
Speaker 2: Coyle, How are you going with here?

1268
00:55:58,040 --> 00:55:59,960
Speaker 4: Air Force? I'm gonna put my money where I'm out.

1269
00:56:00,200 --> 00:56:01,600
Speaker 4: Is not only am I betting air Force. I think

1270
00:56:01,600 --> 00:56:02,879
Speaker 4: they're going to be the biggest win of the week,

1271
00:56:03,280 --> 00:56:03,799
Speaker 4: and I.

1272
00:56:03,920 --> 00:56:04,880
Speaker 2: Am going with.

1273
00:56:07,360 --> 00:56:10,160
Speaker 5: I keep seeing people now saying this is too many points.

1274
00:56:10,680 --> 00:56:14,080
Speaker 5: This is too many points for Liberty to be giving

1275
00:56:14,160 --> 00:56:18,360
Speaker 5: on the road after losing the Rutgers people UMass stinks

1276
00:56:18,520 --> 00:56:22,480
Speaker 5: they might be the worst team in college football history.

1277
00:56:22,920 --> 00:56:27,000
Speaker 5: This team, they just gave up sixty to Yukon at home.

1278
00:56:27,560 --> 00:56:30,600
Speaker 5: I mean, just fade this team. I'm done worrying about

1279
00:56:30,680 --> 00:56:32,800
Speaker 5: all right, what's the number? What's their I don't know

1280
00:56:32,880 --> 00:56:34,919
Speaker 5: what the number is. Just just take the take whatever

1281
00:56:35,000 --> 00:56:36,759
Speaker 5: number you come up with. A add three touchdowns and

1282
00:56:36,800 --> 00:56:39,960
Speaker 5: that's the real number. Just after seeing that effort against you,

1283
00:56:40,200 --> 00:56:43,480
Speaker 5: losing fifty six thirty five at home to Yukon, give

1284
00:56:43,520 --> 00:56:45,839
Speaker 5: me Liberty first half in game there worse than Yukon

1285
00:56:45,960 --> 00:56:47,640
Speaker 5: last year. It's I think it's the worst team I've

1286
00:56:47,640 --> 00:56:49,080
Speaker 5: ever seen. All right, before we get out of here,

1287
00:56:49,360 --> 00:56:50,120
Speaker 5: third down.

1288
00:56:53,040 --> 00:56:57,920
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends, It's time for the

1289
00:56:58,160 --> 00:56:59,880
Speaker 1: money line, parlay.

1290
00:57:00,600 --> 00:57:01,680
Speaker 2: Underdog, money line park life.

1291
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:04,160
Speaker 4: You going, tom I'm gonna go to Charlotte plus one forty.

1292
00:57:04,239 --> 00:57:06,040
Speaker 4: Everything that I said before, I think their offense can

1293
00:57:06,160 --> 00:57:07,040
Speaker 4: be able to do whatever they want.

1294
00:57:07,400 --> 00:57:10,520
Speaker 5: Thinking about this up until the last second, and you're

1295
00:57:10,520 --> 00:57:12,440
Speaker 5: gonna have Charlotte one TV, and you're gonna have your

1296
00:57:12,480 --> 00:57:13,360
Speaker 5: hogs on the other.

1297
00:57:13,600 --> 00:57:16,120
Speaker 4: Our Oh my god, you can't do this, you can't

1298
00:57:16,160 --> 00:57:18,560
Speaker 4: go there, are you really doing this? Chad Morris has.

1299
00:57:18,520 --> 00:57:21,440
Speaker 2: Never never won a Power five game. This is the weekend.

1300
00:57:21,560 --> 00:57:24,680
Speaker 2: You heard it here first, out of Control. Thanks for

1301
00:57:24,800 --> 00:57:26,360
Speaker 2: listening everyone, Thanks for joining me.

1302
00:57:26,480 --> 00:57:30,400
Speaker 5: Colin. Make sure to rate, review, subscribe, also leave a comment.

1303
00:57:30,560 --> 00:57:32,920
Speaker 5: With a review, you'll be in the running for some

1304
00:57:33,000 --> 00:57:35,040
Speaker 5: gear we're gonna give away, So just go rate it,

1305
00:57:35,200 --> 00:57:37,440
Speaker 5: leave a review, and you'll be in the running. Don't

1306
00:57:37,440 --> 00:57:40,200
Speaker 5: forget about the voicemails this weekend five seventy five six

1307
00:57:40,360 --> 00:57:42,080
Speaker 5: five fives your six six four.

1308
00:57:42,440 --> 00:57:45,520
Speaker 2: Also on my Twitter account, scream yell, cry, laugh.

1309
00:57:45,680 --> 00:57:48,120
Speaker 5: We'll catch you all Saturday morning ten thirty am Eastern

1310
00:57:48,240 --> 00:57:51,600
Speaker 5: for our live show, and then again on Monday or

1311
00:57:51,640 --> 00:57:53,280
Speaker 5: a weekend recap podcast.

1312
00:57:53,360 --> 00:57:54,600
Speaker 2: Thanks, We'll we'll catch you all later.

1313
00:57:54,720 --> 00:57:56,400
Speaker 4: Jew Peace out.