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Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making

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Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know

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Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news

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Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money

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Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and

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Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage

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Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most

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Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for?

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Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Happy Thursday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

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Speaker 1: What do we have, Crystal. Indeed, we do lots of

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Speaker 1: very interesting primary results to dig into. We had that

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Speaker 1: big Kansas abortion referendum. We had some big primaries, especially

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Speaker 1: on the Republican side, but also some interesting results on

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Speaker 1: the Democratic side. So we'll get into all of that

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Speaker 1: and what it means. Also, as you know Pelosi with

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Speaker 1: her big trip to Taiwan, what has the fallout been

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Speaker 1: from that and what is going to happen next. We

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Speaker 1: also have some new financial numbers from CNN. It looks

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Speaker 1: like they are going to have less than a billion

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Speaker 1: dollars in profit for the first time in quite a

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Speaker 1: long time. So the new president saying like, oh, we

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Speaker 1: don't care about the ratings, but when those financial numbers hit,

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Speaker 1: maybe changing his tune. We also have Dan Maren's on

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Speaker 1: the show. Been a while since we talked to Dan,

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Speaker 1: but Fantastic Reportery was on the ground in Michigan looking

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Speaker 1: at the elections there. Before we jump into our first story,

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Speaker 1: live show. Yeah, live show, let's go out and put

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Speaker 1: it up there on the screen, Atlanta, September sixteenth, seven

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Speaker 1: thirty pm Eastern Time. We're going to be there, We're

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Speaker 1: going to have friends, We're going to have a great

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Speaker 1: show for everybody who was involved. We're really excited. We're

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Speaker 1: putting the plans and all that stuff together and the

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Speaker 1: way that we fell a crystal. We've got some interesting

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Speaker 1: camera setups which I've been involved with recently, so this

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Speaker 1: is going to be fun for everybody involved. Yes, we

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Speaker 1: will also release it later on at the date, but

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Speaker 1: if you're going to be there, there's going to be

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Speaker 1: great energy, we're going to have a lot of discussion,

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Speaker 1: and we're gonna have some special surprises for the people

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Speaker 1: who do show up, so I think you guys will

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Speaker 1: all enjoy it. There's a link down there in the description.

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Speaker 1: By the way, we've had now requested by mass amounts

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Speaker 1: of tickets, so there are actually not going to be

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Speaker 1: that many tickets left. So go ahead in Naber's while

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Speaker 1: you still can, and we're really looking forward to it.

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Speaker 1: The link is down in the description. But let's get

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Speaker 1: to the show. Yes, indeed, so we wanted to start

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Speaker 1: with that big Kansas abortion referendum. So as a reminder,

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Speaker 1: there was a ballid initiative that Kansas voters went to

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Speaker 1: vote on on Tuesday which would have changed the Kansas

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Speaker 1: Constitution to allow lawmakers in that state to ban abortion

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Speaker 1: in whatever way they want to do. There had been

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Speaker 1: a Supreme Court decision previously, I think it was in

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Speaker 1: twenty nineteen or twenty eighteen in Kansas that said this

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Speaker 1: line in the Kansas Constitution guarantees the right to abortion access.

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Speaker 1: So that has limited what the Republican dominate. They have

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Speaker 1: a super majority Republican dominated legislature has been able to

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Speaker 1: do in that state. So a vote yes on that

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Speaker 1: ballot initiative was the pro life or anti abortion position.

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Speaker 1: Vote no, meaning let's leave the constitution as it is,

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Speaker 1: was the pro choice position for the vote. And obviously

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Speaker 1: Kansas pretty red state. And not only that, but most

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Speaker 1: of the other action on Tuesday was all on the

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Speaker 1: Republican side. So we were all kinds of candidates and

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Speaker 1: Chris Kobak back at it and all these things on

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Speaker 1: the Republican side for people to vote on Democratic side. Listen,

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Speaker 1: in Kansas, there's not a whole lot of action going

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Speaker 1: on there, so it seemed like the landscape was kind

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Speaker 1: of tilted in republicans favor. They actually pushed to have

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Speaker 1: this ballot initiative on the ballot on this primary day,

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Speaker 1: anticipating that there would be much much higher Republican turned out. Well, surprise,

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Speaker 1: very different result than what people expected. Let's go and

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Speaker 1: put this up on the screen. So the pro choice position,

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Speaker 1: the no position was resoundingly successful. This AP article says

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Speaker 1: Kansas voters resoundingly protect their access to abortion. With most

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Speaker 1: of the vote counted, they were prevailing by roughly twenty

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Speaker 1: percentage points. With and this was the really crazy part.

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Speaker 1: The turnout was insane. Turnout was approaching what's typical for

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Speaker 1: a fall election for governor. You know, it's also interesting

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Speaker 1: to dig into, and Soccer's gonna have a little bit

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Speaker 1: more of this in his monologue. The way that both

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Speaker 1: sides campaigned. The pro choice side really framed us as

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Speaker 1: an issue of sort of individual liberty and creatadom. They

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Speaker 1: didn't say the word abortion one time, the the you know,

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Speaker 1: yes side of it. The anti choice side, they really

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Speaker 1: framed this. They didn't want to talk about abortion really either.

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Speaker 1: They wanted to say this is abortion neutral. They really

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Speaker 1: tried to hide the ball about what legislators might do

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Speaker 1: if this amendment did ultimately pass. And ultimately it was

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Speaker 1: extremely energizing for the pro choice side. And I don't

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Speaker 1: even want to say the Democratic side, because there was

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Speaker 1: very some crossover vote here of Republicans who voted with

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Speaker 1: the pro choice position. Here, let's go ahead and put

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Speaker 1: Steve Kornacki's tweet up on the screen. That gets at

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Speaker 1: just how crazy this turnout was. With just about all

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Speaker 1: votes counted, turnout for the Kansas primary stands at nine

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Speaker 1: hundred and ten thousand votes, So for comparison back in

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Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, which was a hotly contested primary. They had

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Speaker 1: about half four hundred and seventy three thousand votes in

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Speaker 1: that primary versus nine hundred and ten thousand this time around.

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Speaker 1: Pretty comparable. I'm not that far off, honestly from the

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Speaker 1: presidential election vote totals. Go ahead and put this next

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Speaker 1: piece up on the screen. Nate Cone says that Democrats

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Speaker 1: were about fifty percent likelier to vote earlier than this

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Speaker 1: than Republicans. He was tweeting this while the results were

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Speaker 1: still coming in, yielding a nearly even partisan split among

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Speaker 1: early voters in a state Republicans outnumbered Democrats by nearly

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Speaker 1: two to one. So he says, no surprise, that knows

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Speaker 1: off to a quick start, but they're actually ended up

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Speaker 1: not being that big of a day difference between the

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Speaker 1: early vote and the day of voting. And let's put

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Speaker 1: this last Krnaky tweet up on the screen and then

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Speaker 1: we can talk about all of this. In the first

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Speaker 1: test of the post row atmosphere, Kansas rejects fifty nine

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Speaker 1: to forty one percent a constitutional amendment declaring abortion not

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Speaker 1: a protected rite in the last decade. This is very

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Speaker 1: interesting when Roe was still in place. Virtually identical amendments

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Speaker 1: went four for four, so they took the opposite position

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Speaker 1: in Tennessee fifty three forty seven, so relatively close Alabama

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Speaker 1: that the you know, anti choice of pro life position

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Speaker 1: won very easily, fifty nine to forty one. West Virginia

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Speaker 1: very narrow fifty two to forty eight. Louisiana won very easily,

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Speaker 1: safety one thirty nine. So it's the first type of

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Speaker 1: amendment like this in a red state to fail. And

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Speaker 1: obviously the difference now is that Roe has been overturned

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Speaker 1: and the Supreme Court has totally upended the landscape here.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, it's absolutely remarkable. And actually you sent this

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Speaker 1: this morning, which actually I think is even more interesting,

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Speaker 1: which is that we don't have the chart made, but

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Speaker 1: the data just came out that shows that the percent

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Speaker 1: of new registrants in the state who were women. In

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Speaker 1: the state of Kansas, the moving seven day average had

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Speaker 1: a massive increase in the post Dobbs era. Basically it

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Speaker 1: was flat. Everything was between the fiftieth and the fifty

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Speaker 1: fifth percentile for year, for months and months and months

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Speaker 1: in the lead up to the election, and then as

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Speaker 1: soon as Dobbs went ahead and came out. It jumped

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Speaker 1: from sixty to from the fifty fifth percentile all the

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Speaker 1: way up until almost seventy percent. So there's a massive

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Speaker 1: jump right in the week weeks after the Dobbs decision,

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Speaker 1: the overturning of Roe versus Wade. So it was not

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Speaker 1: only a ton of women who were activated by this,

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Speaker 1: but look, here's the basic truth. About a third of

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Speaker 1: the people who came out, just if you look at

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Speaker 1: the data to vote in the Republican primary, also voted

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Speaker 1: no on this amendment, which just so you guys know,

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Speaker 1: tracks almost exactly with the vote share of people who

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Speaker 1: were Republican and who identify as pro choice. I've said

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Speaker 1: this ad nauseum. At least one third of the people

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Speaker 1: who voted for Donald Trump, at least possibly even more

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Speaker 1: are pro choice. Now, that showed you that Trump activated

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Speaker 1: a much bigger and broader coalition because his stuff was

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Speaker 1: more about political correctness. I'm gonna be talking a ton

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Speaker 1: about this in my monologue. This just does show you

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Speaker 1: that the old social conservatism really does not have even

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Speaker 1: close to a popular mandate even amongst its actual voters

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Speaker 1: that it claims, in order to speak on behalf of

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Speaker 1: So this is a remarkable vote, and I think there's

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Speaker 1: a hell of a lot of cope on the Republican side.

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Speaker 1: There is no spinning this. It's not Pennsylvania, it's not Florida.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump won by less percent in Kansas than this

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Speaker 1: abortion referendum. One pro choice position is more popular than

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Speaker 1: Trump in the state of Kansas, which is a fifteen

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Speaker 1: percentage point Republican state. Now, look, would this type of

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Speaker 1: stuff passing Utah? Yeah, maybe Utah, Alabama, Mississippi, Texas, maybe again,

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Speaker 1: but if we're talking about you need our plus thirty

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Speaker 1: advantage in order to put this on the ballot or

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Speaker 1: actually win this at a ballot level in your state. Look,

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Speaker 1: it's a catastrophe when you consider the national implications. Again,

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Speaker 1: and you and I have been talking a lot about this,

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Speaker 1: but there does seem to be a activation of Democratic

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Speaker 1: voters which has not showed up in polls, which has

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Speaker 1: not showed up anywhere else, but is showing up in

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Speaker 1: the two data points that we can now point to

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Speaker 1: the special election that we saw previously, which was I

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Speaker 1: think the Republicans only won by three points when they'd

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Speaker 1: won by seventeen points previously, And now this Kansas referendum.

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Speaker 1: At the end of the day, votes are always going

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Speaker 1: to be better than polls. So as we found out

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Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen and in twenty twenty, the polls were off,

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Speaker 1: and it's very possible that the polls are off this time.

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Speaker 1: I am not saying that the Republicans still won't lose

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Speaker 1: went the House, or that they may not take the Senate,

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Speaker 1: just that this has, as we predicted, thrown a massive

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Speaker 1: wrench into the predictability of it, as shown by voter

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Speaker 1: registered data. Now by this massive turnout that did not

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Speaker 1: exist before it is there's just no question in my

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Speaker 1: mind on a national level, this is going to hurt

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Speaker 1: the Republican Party. Yeah, I mean, listen, let's keep in mind,

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Speaker 1: it's very different when you have just this very specific

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Speaker 1: question directly about abortion versus weighing the whole basket of

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Speaker 1: issues and how do I feel about the economy and

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Speaker 1: what do I feel about Joe Biden all of those things,

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Speaker 1: So it's not like a one to one correlation. But

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Speaker 1: as you said, we already had this other special election

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Speaker 1: where Democrats dramatically outperformed what the polling said. Now you

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Speaker 1: have another very significant polling miss because there wasn't a

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Speaker 1: lot of public polling in this referendum. But all the

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Speaker 1: expectations were that this thing was going to be close.

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Speaker 1: Now I've remembered, I really had no idea how this

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Speaker 1: was going to ultimately turn out, because I did think

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Speaker 1: the Republican strategy putting on the ballot when they had

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Speaker 1: all their primaries would be difficult to overcome. Yes, there

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Speaker 1: was huge amounts of money spent on both sides of

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Speaker 1: the thing. We'll get into a little bit of the

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Speaker 1: Republican cobe on the money side in just minute. But

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Speaker 1: remember Kansas. Also, Kansas isn't just any old red state.

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Speaker 1: They have a deep history of institutional pro life, you know,

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Speaker 1: even sort of radical movements. I mean, this is the

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Speaker 1: state where doctor Tiller, you know who remember, was so

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Speaker 1: controversial and so demonized for performing late term abortions. This

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Speaker 1: is the state that he was in and where he

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Speaker 1: was murdered. This is also the state where they had

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Speaker 1: anti abortion Summer of Mercy protests back in nineteen ninety one,

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Speaker 1: according to the AP, that inspired abortion opponents to take

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Speaker 1: over the Kansas Republican Party meet the legislature more conservative.

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Speaker 1: So this is kind of a bedrock state in terms

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Speaker 1: of the pro life movement, and to see it go

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Speaker 1: so hard against their position here is really quite incredible.

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Speaker 1: It reminded me something I'd forgotten about. Back in twenty eleven,

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Speaker 1: Mississippi voters voted on a personhood amendment, which another sort

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Speaker 1: of extreme extreme abortion anti abortion position, and they also

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Speaker 1: rejected it. So listen, the American public is really pretty

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Speaker 1: mixed one choice. They have a pretty complicated, pretty nuanced view.

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Speaker 1: There aren't a lot of absolutists on you know that

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Speaker 1: are all the way to the right, all the way

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Speaker 1: to the left on the issue. So when you are

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Speaker 1: in the position as Republicans are now of really pushing

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Speaker 1: the extremes or really pushing the fringes, you are going

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Speaker 1: to be honest up with the public, even in a

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Speaker 1: place like Kansas. So listen overall, you know, I did

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Speaker 1: my monologue earlier this week on how the landscape has

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Speaker 1: shifted a bit towards Democrats. I think that's true. I

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Speaker 1: think the outcomes for November are a lot murkier than

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Speaker 1: they were before this decision came down. I think this

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Speaker 1: seems very much to be even as voters may not

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Speaker 1: list it as their number one issue. That doesn't mean

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Speaker 1: it's not a very motivating issue for them. And I

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Speaker 1: think specifically in certain races where you have, you know,

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Speaker 1: really clear there are a couple more states that are

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Speaker 1: going to have ballot initiatives in the fall where you

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Speaker 1: have governors that are going to be in position to

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Speaker 1: make some extreme changes here where there's a really clear connect,

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Speaker 1: I think you're going to see some significant shifts here,

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Speaker 1: and especially because Republicans have nominated a lot of candidates

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Speaker 1: that are kind of out on a limb on that

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Speaker 1: if I'm a Democratic gubernatorial candidate, this is all I'm

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Speaker 1: talking about ahead of the fall. This this is a

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Speaker 1: green light, I think toa Greshen Whitmer, which is go

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Speaker 1: all out. This is going to be the case. Same

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Speaker 1: for Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania. If you're running in any

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Speaker 1: sort of battleground state, this is clear evidence that this

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Speaker 1: will not only motivate donors, but it will actually motivate

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Speaker 1: your own voters. And if you can get more females

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Speaker 1: to register disfortunately, they're going to go ahead and vote

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Speaker 1: for Democrats. So that's going to help on the downballot

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Speaker 1: as well. So I think there's a lot of lessons

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Speaker 1: here to be learned for the Democratic Party. And I'm

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Speaker 1: going to be talking also about messaging. Messaging here is

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Speaker 1: very important. Joe Biden, this is very noteworthy to me,

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Speaker 1: did not use the word abortion one time whenever he

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Speaker 1: celebrated this decision, not once. He just talked about pro

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Speaker 1: choice and freedom. Freedom was one of those things that

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Speaker 1: which was emphasized strongly by the Kansas position, this organization

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Speaker 1: which drove the vote out here. So how you talk

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Speaker 1: about it and you know, try to capture the nuance

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Speaker 1: and really just making sure that it's like a pushback

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Speaker 1: against extreme basically tail conditions where you're like, hey, do

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Speaker 1: you really want a ten year old case here in Kansas?

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Speaker 1: Do you want a ten year old to be raped

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Speaker 1: and be forced to carry a baby to term here

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Speaker 1: in the state of Kansas? But people are like absolutely

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Speaker 1: not horrible, right ninety So if you can capture that spirit,

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Speaker 1: that ethos and push not even push back, but don't

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Speaker 1: even acknowledge any of this Lena Dunham type stuff, then

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Speaker 1: you are golden from a political point of view. And

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Speaker 1: it really does put Republicans on the back foot. I

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Speaker 1: have noticed I have not seen one national GOP politician

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Speaker 1: reckon with these results yet not one. And also, if

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Speaker 1: you're Donald Trump, you bet your asses watching this very

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Speaker 1: very close yes for how this is going to be

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Speaker 1: very true? All right, Well, let's talk about some of

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Speaker 1: the Republican cope here because it has been something to watch.

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Speaker 1: So Molly Hummingway kind of in real time as these

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Speaker 1: results were coming out, was asked on Fox News about

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Speaker 1: why this happened in the state of Kansas. Let's take

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Speaker 1: a listen to what she had to say. That Kansas

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Speaker 1: referendum is very interesting. I do think that pro lifers

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Speaker 1: should understand that so much money was spent by hardcore

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Speaker 1: abortion supporters to make sure that that amendment failed. It

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Speaker 1: also was a pretty There's a lot that was packaged there,

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Speaker 1: and I think that usually pro life initiatives do much

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Speaker 1: better when they're incremental. And so it's a reminder also

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Speaker 1: that as Roe v. Wade was overturned and abortion law

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Speaker 1: and policy is returned to the states where people get

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Speaker 1: to weigh in, there's a lot of work to be

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Speaker 1: done for people who want to protect women and children

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Speaker 1: from the scourge of abortion, or people who want to

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Speaker 1: make sure that it is enshrined in law. So there's

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Speaker 1: a lot more to be done there, and we'll see

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Speaker 1: a lot more in the years to come. So a

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Speaker 1: couple things that are interesting there. First of all, remember

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Speaker 1: when Roe was overturned, a lot of the Republican talking

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Speaker 1: points were this is great, leave it to the states,

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Speaker 1: voters can decide, and you're like, all right, voters decided,

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Speaker 1: so how do you feel about it now? So that's

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Speaker 1: number one. But the piece that's really so funny is

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Speaker 1: the handringing about the big money that was spent. And

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Speaker 1: there was a massive flood of money, but it was

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Speaker 1: on both sides of this amendment, and in fact I

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Speaker 1: looked it up, the money was actually pretty even. Not

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Speaker 1: to mention, I mean Molly Hemingway of the Federalists, I

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Speaker 1: very much doubt she's ever sort of had these concerns

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Speaker 1: about big money in politics. That's not before I'll give

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Speaker 1: her some credit. She is very against like anti big technology.

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Speaker 1: Like I respect Molly, she's a very pro life person,

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Speaker 1: but I think that a lot of these people and

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Speaker 1: actually she's being very honest here, which is the truth,

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Speaker 1: is that the pro life movement has been a legalistic movement.

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Speaker 1: It has not been a popular movement. It has not

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Speaker 1: been one targeted to voters really whatsoever. I'm talking to

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Speaker 1: also about this in my monologue Ben Dominic himself, he

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Speaker 1: was founder of the Federalist. He's also a pro lifer.

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Speaker 1: He's married to Megan McCain. He also admitted this. He's like, look,

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Speaker 1: for the last forty years, the pro life project has

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Speaker 1: been in the courts. So we talk about originalism, you

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Speaker 1: know all this. Weir have not grappled with the actual

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Speaker 1: popular movement at a ballot level in forty years, which

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Speaker 1: is a problem. Well, I mean because the strategy has

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Speaker 1: been there's been a recog not just on abortion, but

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Speaker 1: on a lot of libertarian positions in addition to social

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Speaker 1: conservative positions, and understanding that the public is not actually

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Speaker 1: with us. So we're going to have to come up

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Speaker 1: with a strategy that circumvents the public. So yeah, we'll

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Speaker 1: use the courts to get our way. Very smart strata.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it worked for them. It took a long time,

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Speaker 1: but they work for them to ultimately get what they wanted.

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Speaker 1: But the talking point about oh and we want it

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Speaker 1: to go to the stay, we want the voters to

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Speaker 1: have their say, Well, they don't really mean that because Ultimately,

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Speaker 1: you're right. They have not banked on actually persuading voters.

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Speaker 1: They've banked on using some of the anti democratic institutions

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Speaker 1: within our so called democracy to get their way. So

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Speaker 1: when you actually have a baalid initiative like this doesn't

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Speaker 1: go that way, you have a GOP strategist in Kansas.

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Speaker 1: Let's put this next piece up on the screen, who

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Speaker 1: says that this is a big deal, quoting in an

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Speaker 1: interview for the Wall Street Journal. Were no major contested

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Speaker 1: Democratic primaries to drive turnout, and the amendments still failed resoundingly.

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Speaker 1: If Republicans think the issue of abortion is not on

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Speaker 1: the minds of voters, tonight's results should put them on notice.

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Speaker 1: So very you know, very dire assessment there, especially because,

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Speaker 1: as we were pointing out, no major contested Democratic primaries,

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Speaker 1: so this was all about driving turnout for this to

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Speaker 1: vote against this one amendment. We have some more cope

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Speaker 1: from anti abortion activist Lila Rose. She says pro aborts

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Speaker 1: poured millions into a massive disinformation campaign in Kansas, media

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Speaker 1: pulled heavily for them. Another piece that came out of

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Speaker 1: this just to rebut what she's saying there again, we

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Speaker 1: already pointed out the money was roughly equal on both sides,

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Speaker 1: the anti abortion side. The pro life side was actually

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Speaker 1: caught somebody in that movement sending out texts that were

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Speaker 1: lying to voters about which way to vote to be

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Speaker 1: on the pro choice side, So there was reporting on this.

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Speaker 1: People were getting text messages saying vote yes to protect

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Speaker 1: your right to choice. So, if anything, the disinformation that

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Speaker 1: was at least caught and recognized was very much on

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Speaker 1: the side that Leila Rose is on. But my favorite

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Speaker 1: here was Matt Slapp. This is so funny, so go

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Speaker 1: ahead and put this piece up. So he's responding to

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Speaker 1: an article in Insider that says a losing anti abortion

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Speaker 1: referendum in Kansas cranked up voter turnout by staggering him out,

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Speaker 1: flagging a massive new problem for Republicans. Kind of hard

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Speaker 1: to deny that analysis, but he says this is a

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Speaker 1: false analysis. Kansas is a strongly pro life state. Oh

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Speaker 1: really that does not want to take timid states as

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Speaker 1: VTB was. VTB the acronym for the anti choice side

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Speaker 1: in this. Ironically, the pro choice crowd in Kansas should

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Speaker 1: have embraced VTB as it is the best case scenario

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Speaker 1: for them. So his argument here is like, actually, this

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Speaker 1: failed because it didn't go far enough. That's what Kansas

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Speaker 1: voters are rejecting. Yeah, okay. This is another one which

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Speaker 1: is really annoying me, which is that everybody is saying, well,

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Speaker 1: it was worded weirdly, and I think that at the

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Speaker 1: end of the day, because of the actually, frankly, because

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Speaker 1: of the amount of money and because of the amount

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Speaker 1: of media attention, pretty much everybody knew what voting know

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Speaker 1: yet and what voting yes meant. They yes. I actually

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Speaker 1: went and had and read the actual ballot initiative and

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Speaker 1: it was long. It's like Kansas Freedom Blow. It's a

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Speaker 1: little bit hard to decipher, but I think most people

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Speaker 1: had signs in their yards it was like vote no,

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Speaker 1: vote yes, and they understood exactly what it meant. The

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Speaker 1: weird wording was designed by the pro life side, right,

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Speaker 1: I mean, this wasn't some like, you know, pro choice

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Speaker 1: like they're trying to snow the voter. The wording was

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Speaker 1: specifically created actually, I think, to be confusing to voters

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Speaker 1: on the pro life side, so they would be silly

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Speaker 1: to complain about let me go aha and read it

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Speaker 1: for everybody. Yeah, it's because Kansas values both women and children.

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Speaker 1: The constitution in the state of Kansas does not require

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Speaker 1: government funding of abortion, does not create or secure right

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Speaker 1: to abortion. To the extent permitted by the Constitution of

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Speaker 1: the United States. The people, through their elected state representative

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Speaker 1: state senators, may pass laws regarding abortion, including but not

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Speaker 1: limited to, laws that account for circumstances of pregnancy resulting

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Speaker 1: from rape or incests, or circumstances of necessity to save

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Speaker 1: the life of the mother. So it's a little bit

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Speaker 1: hard to be like, well, wait, what is exactly does

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Speaker 1: that mean? And the reason why they framed it almost

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Speaker 1: as like a pro democratic side is because by voting no,

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Speaker 1: you're actually voting to preserve a state Supreme Court decision

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Speaker 1: right codified by the Supreme Court, which is really fascinating

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Speaker 1: because you're like, well, it's democratic, but also the democracy

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Speaker 1: voted to uphold a court decision, not to actually uphold

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Speaker 1: a law right. Very strange, which some people were pointing to.

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Speaker 1: And it's also a little bit counterintuitive because Roe versus

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Speaker 1: weighed originally with Supreme Court decision and then it was

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Speaker 1: also overturned by our Supreme Court decision to to the

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Speaker 1: extent that you're voting on anything, You're voting on how

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Speaker 1: a court ruled, which is a little strange. It's worth

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Speaker 1: noting too that I think six ount of seven of

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Speaker 1: the justices that voted, and this is per Daniel O'shanian

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Speaker 1: respriting about this in bolts that voted in favor of

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Speaker 1: this interpretation of the Kansas Constitution are on the ballot

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Speaker 1: this fall, so that maybe the next target is, all right,

431
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 1: this whole popular thing, you know, going to the voters

432
00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:57,320
Speaker 1: didn't work out. Let's try to get some different justices

433
00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 1: in there so we can get the court to go

434
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:01,439
Speaker 1: our way next time around. So that could be the

435
00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:06,560
Speaker 1: next target. The other thing that's interesting here is, you know,

436
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 1: I think suburban women they were very motivated to vote

437
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 1: against Trump. So there was a seeming shift, you know,

438
00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:19,639
Speaker 1: of white suburban women into the Democratic Party. There seemed

439
00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:22,640
Speaker 1: to be some shift away from the Democratic Party because

440
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:25,399
Speaker 1: of economic concerns and also because some of the COVID

441
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 1: lockdown and school policy and that sort of stuff. Those

442
00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:31,520
Speaker 1: cultural issues when the focus was on them, benefited the

443
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:35,720
Speaker 1: Republican Party more among this demographic group. And as you

444
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 1: were pointing out before, this demographic in this ballot initiative

445
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 1: has swung massively back to the Democratic side and was

446
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:46,439
Speaker 1: very energized this back swing back to the Democratic side. So,

447
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:51,400
Speaker 1: you know, if the Republicans have a poor then expected

448
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,280
Speaker 1: performance in the fall, I think that will be the

449
00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:57,240
Speaker 1: group that would be the you know, would be the

450
00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:59,360
Speaker 1: surprise and would be the shift from where they were

451
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 1: let's say when Glenn Youngkin was ultimately running for governor.

452
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:06,680
Speaker 1: Listen again, I want to say, I think that this

453
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 1: election is still broadly going to be about the economy.

454
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:12,920
Speaker 1: Every headwind is in the Democratic you know, is going

455
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:16,439
Speaker 1: against the Democrats. History is against them. Joe Biden's approval

456
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 1: rating is at historic lows. Eighty percent of the country

457
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:22,359
Speaker 1: says they're on the wrong track. So Democrats shouldn't get

458
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 1: too far ahead of themselves here. But when you combine

459
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 1: these little indicators with the fact that the Republicans have

460
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:34,240
Speaker 1: nominated some very poor candidates in some very key states,

461
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:38,120
Speaker 1: I think you have a more complex mid term picture

462
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:40,479
Speaker 1: than people would have anticipated a couple months. Yeah, that's

463
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 1: just the best way to do. Don't be triumphalus on

464
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 1: any sense of this. It's one vote. It is Kansas,

465
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:46,440
Speaker 1: it's not the rest of the country. You can extrapolate

466
00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:48,680
Speaker 1: to a very limited extent, and we're going to find

467
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:50,640
Speaker 1: out in the fall. This is why I love elections, man,

468
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:54,159
Speaker 1: I love actually seeing how people vote. It just shuts

469
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 1: up everybody, including myself and many other people. You know,

470
00:23:57,600 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 1: it's a lot of fun in order to see how

471
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 1: people actually behavior. Yeah, you never you truly never know.

472
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,159
Speaker 1: I love America. All right, let's go ahead and go

473
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,399
Speaker 1: to the GOP side of this. It's very interesting. Some

474
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,639
Speaker 1: major results. We're going to start in the state of Arizona,

475
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:11,639
Speaker 1: so or sorry with impeachment. Let's go and put this

476
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 1: up there on the screen. It's actually very interesting. So

477
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 1: in terms of the ten people in the House of

478
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,680
Speaker 1: Representatives who did vote to impeach Donald Trump, you can

479
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 1: see that two of those people did actually well. So

480
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,080
Speaker 1: Herrera Butler is a little bit weird because it's a

481
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:28,359
Speaker 1: top two primary. But two out of the ten have

482
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:31,920
Speaker 1: effectively survived to a point where they may get elected.

483
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,879
Speaker 1: But the rest of them, well, they basically fell to

484
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 1: GOP voters and to a pretty intense campaign by President Trump,

485
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 1: who said, look, I am going to target every single

486
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 1: one of these people. There was one other that did survive.

487
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 1: Let's gohead and put this up there on the screen.

488
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 1: Who was Nancy Mace. But the rest of them are

489
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 1: now in those top two primaries and face a pretty

490
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 1: stiff reelection issue, especially Peter Meyer, who we've talked a

491
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 1: lot here on the show about. Because Peter Meyer was

492
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,280
Speaker 1: one of those people who his ce was already in

493
00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 1: a relatively democratic district. It was a toss up lean

494
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 1: toss up rated by the Cook Political Report. Yeah, but

495
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 1: after he went ahead and lost his primary, Crystal, what

496
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:13,199
Speaker 1: has happened is they've almost made it certainly a Democratic victory.

497
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:16,679
Speaker 1: And I think it's fascinating because on that one side,

498
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:20,680
Speaker 1: you are seeing, as we said, are there limited instances

499
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:24,719
Speaker 1: in which non Trump back candidates prevail? Yes, that is

500
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:28,920
Speaker 1: absolutely true. Did Brad Rathensberger and Brian Kemp prevail in

501
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 1: their primaries? Yes? Does that mean that Trump does not

502
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 1: still have the vast majority of the power in the

503
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 1: GOP primary at his disposal, No, it does not mean

504
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 1: that at all. Yeah, as we are seeing eight out

505
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 1: of ten are gone ahead and lost. Well, I do

506
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 1: want to clarify on her a Butler, because it is

507
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 1: a little confusing the person who beat her in this

508
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:49,200
Speaker 1: top two what they call it like a jungle primary,

509
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:52,880
Speaker 1: where it's everybody, it's Republicans Democrats. Everybody was actually a Democrat. Yes,

510
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,639
Speaker 1: So in the fall, this is a republicancy very much

511
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,199
Speaker 1: expected that a Republican is going to hold it. So

512
00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 1: when you don't have all these other republic Can challengers

513
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 1: on the ballot, the expectation is very much that she

514
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:05,879
Speaker 1: will prevail, that New House will prevail. And then there

515
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 1: was one other one who voted for impeachment who also

516
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:12,639
Speaker 1: made it through their primary. So yeah, you probably have

517
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 1: three out of the ten. Still not a great record.

518
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 1: Many of them retired, few of them lost in their primaries,

519
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 1: and you can see that there is still a huge

520
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:23,959
Speaker 1: price to pay for crossing Trump, and I think that

521
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 1: that is the major point. And also in terms of

522
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:31,160
Speaker 1: open primaries, the Trump power just cannot be overstated. Let's

523
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 1: put this up there with Arizona because this is just

524
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 1: so stark, which is that in Michigan. In Arizona pretty

525
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:42,639
Speaker 1: much Trump won across the board. So Blake Masters, he

526
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 1: was in a very crowded primary. We should forget he

527
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 1: was running against well established Arizona politicians used to work

528
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,640
Speaker 1: for Peter Teel. He got the Trump endorsement, and he

529
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 1: won resoundingly in that primary in the state of Arizona. Also, well, yes,

530
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:58,919
Speaker 1: I know that there is some problem right now with

531
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:03,120
Speaker 1: the Carrie Lake vote totals in Arizona. It does look

532
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 1: like she's going to go ahead and pull that off.

533
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 1: So we have Carrie Lake, She's got forty six percent

534
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:12,439
Speaker 1: of the vote. Her top competitor, Carinn Robson. This is

535
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,360
Speaker 1: in the Republican primary, there has forty four percent. We're

536
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:17,240
Speaker 1: still waiting on a lot of votes coming out of

537
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 1: Maricopa County and so it could swing the other way.

538
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 1: It's certainly possible, and we're going to get to how

539
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 1: exactly she's talking about it, but you know, at the

540
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 1: very least she had a very very strong showing. And

541
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 1: same in the secretary of State race. That is one

542
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 1: which we had talked a lot here on the show

543
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:34,160
Speaker 1: and why it mattered, and well, like why did it matter?

544
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,640
Speaker 1: The reason why is because this is the guy who

545
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 1: said a he would not concede if he needed to,

546
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:43,639
Speaker 1: he would concede if he lost, because he would allege

547
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 1: election misinformation or whatever. Also on record saying that he

548
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:51,679
Speaker 1: believed that the twenty twenty election was stolen in the

549
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:54,400
Speaker 1: state of Arizona. He is going to be the Secretary

550
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 1: of State candidate Chris This is a person in charge

551
00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 1: if he wins, administering elections. So it is a great

552
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 1: test case at the state level of Arizona to Arizona

553
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 1: voters buy in to stop the Steel enough to affirmatively

554
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 1: elect and put somebody in place at the gubernat at

555
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 1: the state level to run their elections who believes that

556
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 1: the previous election was stolen. So this is like as

557
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 1: close to a stop the Steel referendum as it gets.

558
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 1: With Blake Masters, it's a little bit up in the air.

559
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:26,119
Speaker 1: It's very complicated. I mean, Masters not well that that

560
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:29,200
Speaker 1: well known in Arizona. Obviously he's got money behind him.

561
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:31,679
Speaker 1: Not being well known though, isn't necessarily a bad thing.

562
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 1: He doesn't have a voting record to defend. And Mark Kelly,

563
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 1: though is pretty popular in the state. He really keeps

564
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 1: his mouth shut, so he's like a Biden supporter. But

565
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 1: you know, he spends a lot of time back there.

566
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:42,960
Speaker 1: As he said, he also has very sympathetic backstory. He

567
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 1: was an astronaut hero all of that. So yeah, husband

568
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 1: of Gabby Giffers, which you know, a lot of people

569
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:50,479
Speaker 1: still remember in the state of Arizona, So there is

570
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 1: it's a confounding variable and it certainly will be a

571
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 1: tough race, but there is no question that him prevailing

572
00:28:56,840 --> 00:29:00,200
Speaker 1: in that primary. It is almost certainly because of Donald Trump. Well,

573
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 1: let's talk specifically about Michigan, because this race with between

574
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 1: Meyer and Gibbs. Meyer again was the one who is

575
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 1: a Republican incumbent who voted for Donald Trump to be

576
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 1: impeached after the events of January sixth, and the expectation

577
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 1: was that this race was not even going to be

578
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 1: particular really close. That Gibbs the pro Trump, the Trump

579
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 1: endorsed candidate that basically stopped the Steel candidate that he

580
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:28,480
Speaker 1: would romp in this primary. This is also one where

581
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 1: Democrats got very involved. I think it was four hundred

582
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:37,000
Speaker 1: and thirty five thousand dollars that Democrats poured into this

583
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 1: race on behalf of the conspiracy theorist, the type of

584
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 1: candidate that they claim is destroying democracy and the world

585
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 1: and it's existential and then they wide into this race

586
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:52,080
Speaker 1: and prop this guy up. The end result it ended

587
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 1: up being quite close. So the last results I saw

588
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 1: was fifty two forty eight Gibbs. So if Democrats hadn't

589
00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 1: spent that money, there's a pretty good chance that Meyer

590
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 1: might have pulled it off. So it's not just the

591
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 1: power of Trump. It's also the Democrats decided that they

592
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 1: wanted to go up against Gibbs, that they would rather

593
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 1: take the risk of putting another nut job into Congress.

594
00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 1: But they think that they have a better chance of

595
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 1: beating this guy in the fall, which is probably correct.

596
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 1: They probably do have a better chance, but I wouldn't

597
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 1: like one hundred percent count on it. But they poured

598
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 1: tons of money into this primary against I mean, it's

599
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 1: just incredibly hypocritical, against all of their stated values about

600
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 1: what the stakes are of the election for democracy. Adam Kinziger,

601
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 1: of course, who is another Republican who has voted for

602
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:46,320
Speaker 1: Trump's impeachment, he is very upset about what Democrats did

603
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 1: in this race and is, you know, not being shy

604
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 1: about it. Let's listen to what he had to say

605
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 1: in the races. Peter Meyer lost his primary. What's your reaction. Yeah,

606
00:30:56,560 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 1: I mean it's it's you know, if Peter's opponent and

607
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 1: goes on to November and wins, that the Democrats own

608
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 1: that congratulations. I mean, here's the thing. Don't keep coming

609
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 1: to me asking where are all the good Republicans that

610
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 1: defend democracy and then take your donor's money and spend

611
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 1: half a million dollars promoting one of the worst election

612
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 1: deniers that's out there. I mean, you know, the D

613
00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 1: Triple C needs to be ashamed of themselves. Thankfully, some

614
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 1: members of Congress Democrats have spoken out and said they're discussed.

615
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 1: I respect it. I have a little bit amusing because

616
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 1: it's like, hey, Kissinger, they were never going to love

617
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 1: you in the first place, which you could see from

618
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 1: Carville and from Pelosi. I do want to say, though,

619
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's right to blame the Democrats cash.

620
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 1: You know, at the end of the day, Republican voters

621
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 1: just like Donald Trump, and they rejected Peter Meyer for

622
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 1: trying to impeach him. So these people have agency, Like,

623
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 1: it's not just millions of dollars. I'm convinced them to

624
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 1: vote otherwise. Some people, that's all they care about. And

625
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 1: to me, that's some more interesting data point, which is, yeah, sure,

626
00:31:57,200 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 1: the Democrats hypocrites. It's more about you know, them being hipocals.

627
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 1: Then at the end of the day. Republican voters care

628
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 1: so much about Trump that if you cross him on

629
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 1: any of these issues that they deem important, they'll go

630
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,200
Speaker 1: ahead and kick you out of office. Isn't that, frankly

631
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 1: the more interesting data points, Yeah, for sure. But it

632
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 1: is disgusting the Democrats don't know that. I mean, listen,

633
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 1: they're not wrong that they've got a better chance of

634
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 1: the seat. Now. Not only do they not. It's always

635
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 1: harder to run against incumbent. That's number one. Number two

636
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 1: gives its just you know more, he's not as well known.

637
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 1: He's further around on a limb in terms of where

638
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 1: his views and his positions are. But you know, if

639
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 1: this ends up being a wave election, which it certainly

640
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:38,720
Speaker 1: could be even with the road decision, then Democrats may

641
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 1: have had a key played a key role in getting

642
00:32:42,400 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 1: this guy into office. Let's go ahead and move on

643
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 1: to some of the boar specifics about Arizona, because there

644
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 1: was a lot that went on in that state. Let's

645
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 1: gohead and put this next tear sheet up on the screen.

646
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 1: So Trump endorsed Masters and Fincham both win the Arizona

647
00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 1: GOP nods for key races. Go ahead to see one

648
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 1: here so we can see that tear sheet. State lawmaker.

649
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:33,520
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty election, Denier Mark Fincham has won the

650
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 1: Republican nomination for Secretary of State of Arizona. This is

651
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 1: I'm reading from Politico. He pushes him closer to being

652
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 1: the state's chief election officer during the twenty twenty four

653
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 1: presidential But I'm sure that I'll go find will venture

654
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:47,960
Speaker 1: capitalist Blake Masters will represent the party in the state's

655
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 1: key Senate race in the fall. These are the Trump

656
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 1: back candidates. You know, Masters had a lot of Peter

657
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 1: Teel money behind him as well. But originally this was

658
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 1: a very closely contested Senate primary, you know, hotly fought.

659
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 1: He ended up winning by quite a margin with Trump's help.

660
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 1: Here and one of the things they point out in

661
00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:09,359
Speaker 1: this article saga, which is interesting is Fincham is far

662
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 1: from the only secretary of state in key swing states

663
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:15,279
Speaker 1: that has won the GOP nod. Who is you know,

664
00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:18,239
Speaker 1: stop the steal conspiracy says they wouldn't have certified the

665
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 1: last election. Who stands ready, willing, enable, apparently to steal

666
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:23,720
Speaker 1: the next one if they're given the chance. He says,

667
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 1: he's the latest member of the so called America First

668
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 1: Secretary of State coalition to secure the nomination a key battleground.

669
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 1: The coalition's founder, Jim Marchant, is the Republican nominee in Nevada,

670
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 1: Christina Caramo is the party's pick. In Michigan another kind

671
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:44,880
Speaker 1: of significant state. And in Pennsylvania, where the governor picks

672
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 1: the state's chief election official, coalition member Doug Mastriano is

673
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:53,239
Speaker 1: the GOP candidate. So in these I mean, Georgia is

674
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 1: one of the only states where they've basically failed to

675
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:58,799
Speaker 1: get their person in there in terms of the key

676
00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 1: swing states that really decided the last election. So how

677
00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:05,719
Speaker 1: are voters going to look at this? Are they going

678
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 1: to you know, evaluate these people and be concerned about

679
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:10,719
Speaker 1: how they might what they might do in the next

680
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:13,240
Speaker 1: election based on what their comments are about what happened

681
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 1: in the last one. It's this is legitimately disturbing and

682
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 1: troubling that these people have gotten the GP nod. It

683
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 1: didn't come close either. You know, he got forty one

684
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 1: percent of the vote and the next closest was twenty

685
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:26,800
Speaker 1: four percent of the vote. I do find it interesting

686
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 1: at the state level, which is look, Biden barely won However,

687
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:32,799
Speaker 1: Biden's favorability in the state is a disaster. He's down

688
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 1: by almost twenty points. At the same time, the Democratic

689
00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 1: candidate for Secretary of State, Adrian Fontes, they are going

690
00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 1: to make all of this about stop this. They're like, listen,

691
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:44,600
Speaker 1: we are just going to run fair elections, which will

692
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:47,239
Speaker 1: not mean secretary of state, right exactly, That's the whole

693
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 1: your whole job. Also, you can bet that this is

694
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:52,279
Speaker 1: going to have way more money behind this race than

695
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 1: in any other secretary of state race. You know, most

696
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:56,360
Speaker 1: people don't give a shit about secretary of state ever.

697
00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 1: But now that there is an explicit plan by many

698
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 1: republic in order to be in place should they need

699
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:04,959
Speaker 1: to in twenty twenty four, well now you can bet

700
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:06,800
Speaker 1: that a lot of people are going to be paying attention,

701
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:11,279
Speaker 1: both voters and donors. I found the polls put out

702
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:14,800
Speaker 1: by the pro Trump pollster Fabrizio, who worked for the

703
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:17,280
Speaker 1: Trump campaign in twenty twenty and whose poles were quite accurate.

704
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 1: To be clear, let's put this up there on the screen.

705
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 1: He put out, Now a poll from the Save America

706
00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 1: pack that actually shows Blake Masters is what I was

707
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:28,800
Speaker 1: alluding to earlier. Beginning the general election five points behind

708
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:32,920
Speaker 1: Senator Mark Kelly, but showing Biden's numbers in the state

709
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:38,440
Speaker 1: under forty percent. So they see some you know, some

710
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:42,239
Speaker 1: efforts in order to go against Mark Kelly by highlighting

711
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:44,799
Speaker 1: voting record. I don't think that stuff matters at all.

712
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 1: I mean voting record to the extent that it does,

713
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:49,480
Speaker 1: They'll be like, he voted ninety eight percent or what

714
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:52,439
Speaker 1: you know, I'm face statistic with Joe Biden, but it's

715
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 1: going to come down to Biden, and it is going

716
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:57,719
Speaker 1: to come down to also, Arizonans have to make a

717
00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:01,399
Speaker 1: much more explicit choice on what though they affirmatively buy

718
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:04,560
Speaker 1: in to stop the steal. Then many other states, almost

719
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 1: like a Pennsylvania. We should also remember, you know, Blake Masters,

720
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 1: this is a guy who didn't add where he said

721
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:12,839
Speaker 1: I think Trump won at the very beginning opens with it,

722
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:15,359
Speaker 1: I think Trump won, and he goes, well, if you don't,

723
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:17,359
Speaker 1: it's okay. You know, you have to admit the big

724
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:20,399
Speaker 1: tech whatever, all right, So nobody just because big tech

725
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:22,280
Speaker 1: has money does not mean that the election was stolen,

726
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:24,959
Speaker 1: all right. But he is trying to have his cake

727
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 1: and eat it too, talk about like corrupt forces. But

728
00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:29,879
Speaker 1: explicitly say I think Trump won, which, let's be honest,

729
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:31,920
Speaker 1: the only reason Trump endorsed him is because he's willing

730
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:34,560
Speaker 1: to say those things and also because Peter Teel wanted

731
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:38,239
Speaker 1: him to. When you combine those two factors, Masters is

732
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:41,560
Speaker 1: going to have to run a campaign where Mark Kelly,

733
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 1: if there is a debate, will affirmatively ask him over

734
00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:47,440
Speaker 1: and over again, like do you actually think the election

735
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:50,320
Speaker 1: was stolen? So this is where the stop the steal

736
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 1: could absolutely come to hurt Republicans at a statewide level

737
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:58,080
Speaker 1: because we know that Arizona did vote for Joe Biden.

738
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 1: The only problem is Joe Biden is not popular, so

739
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:04,840
Speaker 1: he could be his own worst enemy. The vulnerability for

740
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:07,440
Speaker 1: Mark Kelly is very clear. It's that year for Democrats,

741
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:10,400
Speaker 1: the presence, unpopular inflation, all of the things that we

742
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 1: know about. He personally has his own profile in the state.

743
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 1: I do think that that's a huge advantage for him

744
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:19,560
Speaker 1: because what Republicans will want to do is to nationalize

745
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:22,279
Speaker 1: the race. He'll want to make it specific to his

746
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:26,000
Speaker 1: profile and to Arizona, and because voters already have these

747
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:28,600
Speaker 1: positive associations with him, that will help him very much

748
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:30,920
Speaker 1: to be able to do it. But yeah, the vulnerability

749
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:34,440
Speaker 1: is the obvious national trends. However, Blake Masters has not

750
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:37,360
Speaker 1: done himself any favors by not only his positions on

751
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:40,239
Speaker 1: stuff the steal, but he has some positions on economics

752
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:42,839
Speaker 1: which are also very out of step, as you pointed out,

753
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:47,120
Speaker 1: wanting to privatize social security. He also on other social

754
00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:49,760
Speaker 1: cultural he says he only wants to vote for judges

755
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:54,319
Speaker 1: who will overturn the Supreme Court ruling on access to contraception.

756
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:57,359
Speaker 1: So he and he has extreme views on abortion as well,

757
00:38:57,400 --> 00:38:59,719
Speaker 1: and we've seen how that clearly is a very motivating factor.

758
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 1: I mean, Arizona, the suburbs are king in Arizona. So

759
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 1: the fact that he has these, you know, really fringe

760
00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:11,200
Speaker 1: views on abortion too, wanting not just a state ban

761
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:13,840
Speaker 1: in Arizona, but going too the Senate and pushing for

762
00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:17,799
Speaker 1: a federal abortion ban, you know, that could really that

763
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 1: could end up being an issue for him as well.

764
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 1: So while yes, they're polling is saying, hey, maybe Mark

765
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:26,080
Speaker 1: Kelly has its vulnerability if we time to Biden, Blake

766
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:29,320
Speaker 1: Masters also has a lot of vulnerabilities here as well.

767
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 1: And I said this last show, but this is really

768
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:34,640
Speaker 1: how it seems to me when you look at the like,

769
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 1: the more you sort of zoom out and look at

770
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:40,239
Speaker 1: the overall landscape, the more you're like, oh, these Republicans

771
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 1: are going to just clean up. It's going to be

772
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:44,560
Speaker 1: a wave. It's going to be historic for them. And

773
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:47,400
Speaker 1: then the more that you zoom into these individual races,

774
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:50,239
Speaker 1: the more you go, I'm not sure about this one.

775
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:52,600
Speaker 1: And whoa, the polling isn't quite where you'd expect it

776
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:55,759
Speaker 1: to be on that one, and geez, are voters in

777
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 1: that state? Are suburban voters really going to go for

778
00:39:58,080 --> 00:39:59,799
Speaker 1: some of these positions in some of the ground that

779
00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 1: they've staked down, So we shall see. The one other

780
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 1: little note here is that that House Speaker Russy Bowers,

781
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:10,640
Speaker 1: who was running in a Republican primary for a state

782
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 1: Senate seat, who had testified at the January sixth Commission,

783
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 1: he lost. So that's another the other Trump victory here.

784
00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:20,720
Speaker 1: And then let's talk about the Arizona governor race, because

785
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:22,919
Speaker 1: this one is still too close to call. I guess

786
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 1: there's still which is kind of ironic that you know,

787
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:27,320
Speaker 1: the carry Lake like stop the Steel people are counting

788
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 1: on the late votes to come in to secure her victory.

789
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:33,239
Speaker 1: But anyway, we'll put that aside. Go ahead and put

790
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:35,719
Speaker 1: C three up on the screen here. So Carrie Lake

791
00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 1: versus Karen Taylor robson Arizona GOP primary too close to call.

792
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:43,360
Speaker 1: I believe it still is too close to call this morning. Notably,

793
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:46,839
Speaker 1: Arizona actually has a lot of mail in votes. So

794
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:50,560
Speaker 1: something else that the Secretary of State nominee for the

795
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 1: Republican side has said that he wants to basically get

796
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 1: rid of. But you know what was interesting is that she,

797
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 1: while she was still trailing in in terms of the

798
00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:03,839
Speaker 1: official count, came out and pulled a boutages and gave

799
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:07,160
Speaker 1: the victory speech and said we won. We already know

800
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 1: the final results are in, and also included some language

801
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:12,800
Speaker 1: in there of basically like even if the results changed

802
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:15,719
Speaker 1: down the even if it goes against us down the road,

803
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:18,759
Speaker 1: we know that we won, so very much ready to

804
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:21,400
Speaker 1: declare victory whether she actually won or not. Yeah, magu's

805
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 1: freaking out about Maricopa County. Let's put this up there

806
00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:26,759
Speaker 1: on the screen. Zach Patrizio pointed out that they're calling

807
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:29,760
Speaker 1: it sharpig Gate two point out, alleging that Sharpie Pen's

808
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:32,680
Speaker 1: bleeding through the ballots in Arizona when they were voting

809
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 1: for Kerrie Lake. Look, it is true Maricopa County is

810
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 1: taking way too long in order to count votes, but

811
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:40,400
Speaker 1: that doesn't mean that people are rigging votes people. I

812
00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:44,880
Speaker 1: just the conspiratorial mind has completely taken over the GOP,

813
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:50,280
Speaker 1: like the evidence of incompetence is instead spun as evidence

814
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:53,399
Speaker 1: of like nefariousness. Any time it doesn't go the way

815
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:55,880
Speaker 1: they want it to go, then they instantly are like fraud,

816
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 1: whether or not there is any evidence of fraud. And

817
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:01,520
Speaker 1: you know, listen, elections have been stolen in the pad.

818
00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:04,080
Speaker 1: I'm not saying this that bad things can't ever happen

819
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:05,880
Speaker 1: in an election, but yeah, some proof you can't just

820
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 1: invent Sharpie Gay down in nowhere. Yeah exactly. And then

821
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 1: that's the problem is immediately it's like, oh, Shenanigans are happening.

822
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 1: It's like you can't just make these claims like it's

823
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 1: outrageous in order to do so. And by the way,

824
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:17,400
Speaker 1: you think that's not going to come back to bite

825
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:20,120
Speaker 1: you should there ever be a close election in the state,

826
00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:23,280
Speaker 1: So setting ourselves up for mess, you know, once again.

827
00:42:23,600 --> 00:42:26,440
Speaker 1: But that's really what these people do. Crystal, Yes, Okay,

828
00:42:26,520 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 1: So moving on from Arizona, listug above Missouri. So you

829
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:34,920
Speaker 1: will recall that you had a hotly contested primary on

830
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 1: the Republican side for Senate and you had three real

831
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:44,480
Speaker 1: contenders here, Eric Schmidt, Trudy Bush or not sorry that's

832
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 1: on the Democrat or Hartler Hartsler. I always get those

833
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:50,120
Speaker 1: two mixed up for some reason, Vicky Hartzler and Eric

834
00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:53,520
Speaker 1: Briton's the former discurious governor. I won't go into all

835
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:56,520
Speaker 1: the details. Accused wife beater, all that stuff. So Trump

836
00:42:56,600 --> 00:43:00,319
Speaker 1: was apparently very very torn about whether to endorse Eric

837
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 1: Schmidt or Britons in this Senate primary, and so he

838
00:43:05,160 --> 00:43:07,439
Speaker 1: ultimately puts down and we've got a little bit of reporting.

839
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:09,080
Speaker 1: I'll get into it in a minute about how we

840
00:43:09,120 --> 00:43:11,120
Speaker 1: came to this decision, but he ultimately puts on a

841
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 1: message saying I endorse Eric. Of course Eric Brighton's and

842
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:18,279
Speaker 1: Eric Schmith they share Eric anyway, you get it. So

843
00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 1: Eric won, Eric Schmidt ended up winning, so the not

844
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:27,120
Speaker 1: disgraced former governor, the other Eric ends up winning. And

845
00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:31,440
Speaker 1: you know, Democrats had hoped that if Grightons had won,

846
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:35,280
Speaker 1: that maybe they'd have an outside shot in this race.

847
00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 1: But with Schmidt. You know, Missouri's a very Republican state,

848
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:41,200
Speaker 1: so with any sort of standard issue Republican and he's

849
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 1: already won state wide office. Yeah exactly, he's attorney general,

850
00:43:44,600 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 1: so very much expected now that he will be able

851
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 1: to prevail. But the details about how Trump came to

852
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 1: this decision that have come out are also really quite

853
00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:55,760
Speaker 1: fascinated as go and put this up on the screen.

854
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:57,719
Speaker 1: So we've got to oh, this is Eric Schman and

855
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:00,080
Speaker 1: Trudy Bush Valentine. Okay, go on to the next one.

856
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:04,360
Speaker 1: Inside the secret year long campaign to torpedo Eric Brydon's

857
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 1: attempted to come back, and also inside the wild Bedminster

858
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:10,640
Speaker 1: lobbying spree that led to Trump's double Missouri endorsement. So

859
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 1: the first one, you know, Brighton's was up in the

860
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 1: poll and sort of establishment Republicans were really freaking out

861
00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:19,799
Speaker 1: about this because they did see him as vulnerable. I mean,

862
00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:22,200
Speaker 1: they remember very well what happened with Toddy Egan in

863
00:44:22,200 --> 00:44:25,000
Speaker 1: the state of Missouri. This is a state that you know,

864
00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:27,279
Speaker 1: you do have ticket splitters, You have people who just

865
00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:28,919
Speaker 1: would look at this and say, you know what, I'm

866
00:44:28,960 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 1: a Republican typically, but this is just too far for

867
00:44:31,560 --> 00:44:35,120
Speaker 1: me to go. And so there was a pack that

868
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 1: was organized with a lot of big money from especially

869
00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 1: in state, to take down Gritons and to put a

870
00:44:41,200 --> 00:44:44,880
Speaker 1: bunch of ads up on the airwaves talking about the

871
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:48,600
Speaker 1: allegations against him, and man, when they put that those

872
00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:51,920
Speaker 1: ads up, he just sank like a rock in the polls.

873
00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:54,080
Speaker 1: And so this ended up not even being really close.

874
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:57,400
Speaker 1: The Trump part is really interesting to those Zager because

875
00:44:58,080 --> 00:45:00,880
Speaker 1: you know, he had put out this message on truth

876
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 1: saying that he was going to endorse in the Missouri race. Well,

877
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:08,560
Speaker 1: apparently when he said that, he still hadn't decided who

878
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:11,520
Speaker 1: he was going to endorse. So when he was, you know,

879
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:14,240
Speaker 1: doing that terrible live golf thing in his golf course,

880
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:18,480
Speaker 1: he was soliciting opinions about what he should do, and

881
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:20,600
Speaker 1: it sort of seemed like his heart really wanted to

882
00:45:20,600 --> 00:45:23,480
Speaker 1: go with Graydon's, but he was in Kimberly Guilfwill was

883
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:26,799
Speaker 1: on Brighton's side, pushing hard. But there were a lot

884
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:28,399
Speaker 1: of other voices that are saying, you know, this guy

885
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 1: could really jeopardize the seat and this is a problem.

886
00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:35,840
Speaker 1: So ultimately he couldn't decide, So somebody floated this crazy

887
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:39,480
Speaker 1: off ramp of just endorse Eric and you know, then

888
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:41,239
Speaker 1: they both get the benefit of it, and then you

889
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 1: can claim victory either way. And that's what he went with.

890
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:46,839
Speaker 1: And the really funny thing to me was that not

891
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:49,960
Speaker 1: only did he do that, but he literally called both

892
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:53,239
Speaker 1: the candidates and told them that he was endorsing them

893
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 1: without mentioning that he was also endorsing the other Eric.

894
00:45:56,640 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 1: So I'm sure they both were like, oh my god,

895
00:45:58,560 --> 00:46:02,319
Speaker 1: I'm this is amazing, and then the endorsement comes out

896
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:05,880
Speaker 1: and they realize like, oh, this isn't quite what I

897
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 1: anticipated it to be. Yeah. I think what's really hilarious

898
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:13,080
Speaker 1: to me is both the double Eric endorsement, but also

899
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:15,920
Speaker 1: that both It's so shameless that Eric Britons will never

900
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:17,880
Speaker 1: like leak again and be like, yeah, he lied to me.

901
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:20,040
Speaker 1: You know, he has to kiss Trump's ass for the

902
00:46:20,040 --> 00:46:22,720
Speaker 1: rest of his life because who knows, maybe he'll get appointed.

903
00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:25,520
Speaker 1: I'm sure he'll get appointed by something if Trump does

904
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:27,880
Speaker 1: win the presidency again. And he got a lot of

905
00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:30,319
Speaker 1: MAGA people still love him because he was on the

906
00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:33,120
Speaker 1: ground in Arizona for their fake audits. He was you know,

907
00:46:33,120 --> 00:46:35,799
Speaker 1: he did went all in on stop the Steel. He

908
00:46:35,880 --> 00:46:38,000
Speaker 1: kissed Steve Bannon's ass hard. I mean, don't even need

909
00:46:38,040 --> 00:46:39,680
Speaker 1: to run. All he needs to do is get appointed

910
00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:42,120
Speaker 1: to like one office or whatever. And he's quote unquote back.

911
00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:45,240
Speaker 1: So he's an extraordinary narcissist. It actually is like jocking

912
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:47,360
Speaker 1: in order to see somebody like him exist on the

913
00:46:47,400 --> 00:46:51,440
Speaker 1: political stage. And Missouri does just confirm though that voters

914
00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:54,040
Speaker 1: still can see through some of your stuff. Like look

915
00:46:54,040 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 1: at Eric Schmid. He won forty five percent of the vote.

916
00:46:57,160 --> 00:47:00,319
Speaker 1: Erit eighteen point nine Crystal, he got beat by the heart.

917
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:04,720
Speaker 1: Wow he only won accountants, Yeah, he only won three

918
00:47:04,760 --> 00:47:07,480
Speaker 1: counties in the entire state. It's like a sea of

919
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:09,840
Speaker 1: red for Eric Schmidt. So Schmidt, I think, is going

920
00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:12,200
Speaker 1: to clean up. On the Democratic side. Lucas Coons actually

921
00:47:12,200 --> 00:47:16,120
Speaker 1: didn't prevail, you know, yeah, fairly close, but lost by

922
00:47:16,160 --> 00:47:18,759
Speaker 1: like six points. Yeah, there was a self funder on

923
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:22,200
Speaker 1: the other side, and so ended up Trudy Bush Valentine.

924
00:47:22,239 --> 00:47:26,439
Speaker 1: She's heir to the Anheuser Busch arrest. I can see

925
00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:29,560
Speaker 1: why that's important in the state, I guess, I don't know. Anyway,

926
00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:32,799
Speaker 1: Democrats have a real problem with being obsessed with these

927
00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:36,000
Speaker 1: like billionaire self unders. So she ends up winning ultimately,

928
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:39,319
Speaker 1: you know, since Gritons didn't prevail on the Republican side,

929
00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:41,840
Speaker 1: really wasn't gonna matter one. On the Democratic side. I

930
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:44,320
Speaker 1: think Lucas, you know, my opinion is Lucas was running

931
00:47:44,320 --> 00:47:48,120
Speaker 1: a really strong campaign, really trying out a sort of

932
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:51,640
Speaker 1: populist left platform and leaning into that. It would have

933
00:47:51,680 --> 00:47:54,640
Speaker 1: been very interesting to see how he fared against Gritons.

934
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:56,759
Speaker 1: But ultimately you don't have Lucas Kuons and you don't

935
00:47:56,760 --> 00:47:59,040
Speaker 1: have Eric Brydon. So now this race is wholly uninteresting

936
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:02,880
Speaker 1: large So yeah, put that up from Kyle conduct that's

937
00:48:02,920 --> 00:48:05,560
Speaker 1: what he makes the call. Yes, exactly, it's a safer seat.

938
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:08,440
Speaker 1: Now there's really just not a lot going on. So anyway,

939
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:11,040
Speaker 1: that's how the primaries shook out. It was an very

940
00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 1: interesting night for America. In some I would say, what

941
00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:19,240
Speaker 1: Trump's strengthened, the GOP is still extraordinary. The impeachment clearly

942
00:48:19,320 --> 00:48:22,280
Speaker 1: is going against most voters. But on the abortion side,

943
00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:26,200
Speaker 1: some preotential harbingers of things to come. And speaking of that,

944
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 1: morning signs yeah, let's go ahead and speak about Taiwan.

945
00:48:28,640 --> 00:48:31,840
Speaker 1: So obviously, Speaker Pelosi landed in Taiwan. She was there

946
00:48:32,040 --> 00:48:33,799
Speaker 1: for a little over twenty four hours she met with

947
00:48:33,800 --> 00:48:37,000
Speaker 1: the President, she made some appearances and more, and then

948
00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:40,560
Speaker 1: she quickly departed. But the fallout from her visit is

949
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:43,480
Speaker 1: only now beginning actually today, so there's a lot of

950
00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:46,759
Speaker 1: eyes on what's happening. First. Let's start though, with her

951
00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:49,319
Speaker 1: op ed. The moment she landed, she wrote published an

952
00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:50,880
Speaker 1: op ed in the Washington Post has put this up

953
00:48:50,880 --> 00:48:53,600
Speaker 1: there on the screen. And what she talks about here

954
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:56,239
Speaker 1: is not only the passage of the Taiwan's Relations Act,

955
00:48:56,480 --> 00:48:59,360
Speaker 1: but I thought that the way that she phrased it

956
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:03,200
Speaker 1: really bears some scrutiny, which is this quote, We take

957
00:49:03,239 --> 00:49:05,320
Speaker 1: this trip at a time when the world faces a

958
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:10,160
Speaker 1: choice between autocracy and democracy. As Russia wages it's premeditated

959
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:13,520
Speaker 1: illegal war against Ukraine, killing thousands of innocents, even children,

960
00:49:13,600 --> 00:49:16,279
Speaker 1: it is essential American our allies make clear that we

961
00:49:16,400 --> 00:49:20,440
Speaker 1: never give in to autocrats. Now, there's a really weird

962
00:49:20,719 --> 00:49:23,719
Speaker 1: theory behind this, which is that you have to go

963
00:49:23,760 --> 00:49:26,879
Speaker 1: to Taiwan to show Ukraine that you're willing to stand

964
00:49:27,000 --> 00:49:29,760
Speaker 1: up against Putin, and you have to defend Ukraine against

965
00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:32,560
Speaker 1: Putin in order to show the Taiwanese that you'll back

966
00:49:32,600 --> 00:49:34,480
Speaker 1: them against China, right, and you're like, well, hold on

967
00:49:34,520 --> 00:49:37,760
Speaker 1: a second, which one is it? And why this bothers

968
00:49:37,800 --> 00:49:39,880
Speaker 1: me is that, Look, the idea that we're going to

969
00:49:39,920 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 1: support every democracy in the world is ridiculous. That's just

970
00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:45,640
Speaker 1: not going to happen. States trade with other states and

971
00:49:45,719 --> 00:49:49,560
Speaker 1: engage with them based upon their national interests. It has

972
00:49:49,640 --> 00:49:52,799
Speaker 1: been like that since the beginning of time. You could

973
00:49:52,840 --> 00:49:56,080
Speaker 1: make a very hard power, non democratic case to talk

974
00:49:56,080 --> 00:49:59,399
Speaker 1: about Taiwan and to talk about Ukraine, frankly, but that's

975
00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:01,720
Speaker 1: not the case that they make here. It's all wrapped

976
00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 1: up in this like high falutin language around democracy and autocracy,

977
00:50:05,719 --> 00:50:07,440
Speaker 1: which then leads me to be like, well, okay, well,

978
00:50:07,440 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 1: why did we just okay three billion dollars by the

979
00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:11,359
Speaker 1: Biden administration to the Saudi Arabian government Because we did

980
00:50:11,400 --> 00:50:13,759
Speaker 1: that actually happened yesterday, just so people are aware, and

981
00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:16,040
Speaker 1: you're like, oh, well, actual, where's our god minded ideals?

982
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:17,879
Speaker 1: Then yeah, there's no highline ideals. Right then we're talking

983
00:50:17,920 --> 00:50:19,520
Speaker 1: about hard power. We're talking about oil. So it's like

984
00:50:19,560 --> 00:50:22,120
Speaker 1: sometimes we're okay with hard power and sometimes we're not

985
00:50:22,160 --> 00:50:24,279
Speaker 1: okay with hard power. The op ed itself was just

986
00:50:24,320 --> 00:50:27,399
Speaker 1: you know, classic kind of neoliberal brain and right, well,

987
00:50:27,440 --> 00:50:29,480
Speaker 1: that was actually my biggest takeaway from it. I mean,

988
00:50:29,560 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 1: ultimately I read through it, she doesn't really make that

989
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:34,520
Speaker 1: much of a case for her trip. To be honest

990
00:50:34,560 --> 00:50:37,920
Speaker 1: with you, it's just like reviewing our relationship with Taiwan.

991
00:50:38,080 --> 00:50:40,759
Speaker 1: And here's why it's but she says by traveling that

992
00:50:40,880 --> 00:50:43,600
Speaker 1: the closest she comes to making a direct cases. She says,

993
00:50:43,600 --> 00:50:47,520
Speaker 1: by traveling to Taiwan, we honor our commitment to democracy,

994
00:50:47,600 --> 00:50:50,600
Speaker 1: reaffirming that the freedoms of Taiwan and all democracies must

995
00:50:50,640 --> 00:50:53,359
Speaker 1: be respected. That doesn't mean anything. I mean, it's just

996
00:50:53,400 --> 00:50:56,640
Speaker 1: like meaningless buzzwords. And I think that's I mean, that's

997
00:50:56,680 --> 00:50:59,920
Speaker 1: the real thing of why, Like if you could make

998
00:51:00,120 --> 00:51:03,520
Speaker 1: really make a case of what differencees this make houses

999
00:51:03,840 --> 00:51:06,720
Speaker 1: right and going right now? Why now is the time

1000
00:51:06,800 --> 00:51:08,680
Speaker 1: to go and what it means and where it's going

1001
00:51:08,760 --> 00:51:11,000
Speaker 1: to lead us. But they don't do that. I mean,

1002
00:51:11,040 --> 00:51:13,799
Speaker 1: everybody who's in there's a bunch of Republicans mostly who

1003
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:18,719
Speaker 1: really affirmatively supported Pelosi's trip. It's all just wrapped up

1004
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 1: in these meaningless buzzwords about standing up to autocrats and

1005
00:51:22,640 --> 00:51:26,360
Speaker 1: standing with democracy or whatever. Listen, as I said before,

1006
00:51:26,560 --> 00:51:28,480
Speaker 1: you know, if you believe that what we need to

1007
00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:30,719
Speaker 1: do is show China how tough we are, we're not

1008
00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 1: going to back down. Okay, well you can make an

1009
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:36,600
Speaker 1: argument by flooding Ukraine with weapons. Certainly things have not

1010
00:51:36,640 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 1: gone for Russia the way they thought they would go.

1011
00:51:38,719 --> 00:51:42,040
Speaker 1: In Ukraine. You were able to get the you know,

1012
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:45,200
Speaker 1: heard the cats of Europe and basically more or less

1013
00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:47,239
Speaker 1: have a sort of united strategy, although there are some

1014
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:50,919
Speaker 1: cracks in fissures there as well. Okay, so you did that.

1015
00:51:50,920 --> 00:51:53,400
Speaker 1: That was the hawkish case for what we've done in Ukraine.

1016
00:51:53,480 --> 00:51:56,320
Speaker 1: We've also done what I think is very intelligent in

1017
00:51:56,320 --> 00:52:01,000
Speaker 1: investing in our own chips, domestic manufacturing. That's the very

1018
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:04,600
Speaker 1: beginning of these type of strategy views of you China

1019
00:52:04,640 --> 00:52:06,880
Speaker 1: that I think makes a lot of sense. That just

1020
00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:10,000
Speaker 1: makes us a lot less dependent on both China and Taiwan.

1021
00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:13,920
Speaker 1: But right now, while we are in this place of vulnerability,

1022
00:52:13,960 --> 00:52:17,359
Speaker 1: wrapped up in the stupid proxy war with Russia, that

1023
00:52:17,520 --> 00:52:20,560
Speaker 1: now's the time it just makes no and sense. That's

1024
00:52:20,560 --> 00:52:22,680
Speaker 1: a really important point to underscore. So like, look, if

1025
00:52:22,680 --> 00:52:24,279
Speaker 1: you care about Taiwan, if you want it to be

1026
00:52:24,320 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 1: able to defend itself. You want to kind of turn

1027
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:27,960
Speaker 1: it into what's called like a porcupine, right, which is

1028
00:52:28,000 --> 00:52:29,920
Speaker 1: make it very very difficult for an attack, because a

1029
00:52:30,000 --> 00:52:32,680
Speaker 1: seaborne attack is very likely. Well, actually, we're spending the

1030
00:52:32,680 --> 00:52:35,560
Speaker 1: bulk of our javelin reserves to Ukraine. So if China

1031
00:52:35,560 --> 00:52:38,520
Speaker 1: invaded Taiwan tomorrow, we actually would not have enough javelin missiles.

1032
00:52:38,600 --> 00:52:40,640
Speaker 1: Why because we don't have enough semi conductors in order

1033
00:52:40,640 --> 00:52:43,000
Speaker 1: to put into those javelin missiles. So if you do care,

1034
00:52:43,400 --> 00:52:46,600
Speaker 1: Ukraine is frankly detracting away from a lot of that case.

1035
00:52:46,640 --> 00:52:48,239
Speaker 1: You can make that if you want, but I'm just

1036
00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:51,760
Speaker 1: telling you that that's what the actual case is. Now. Bipartisanship,

1037
00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:54,880
Speaker 1: you know, all bipartisanship on display here is going to

1038
00:52:54,880 --> 00:52:57,560
Speaker 1: put this up there. Twenty five senators, including Mitch McConnell,

1039
00:52:57,680 --> 00:53:00,360
Speaker 1: put out a letter backing Pelosi's trip to Tie and

1040
00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:03,839
Speaker 1: actually attacking President Biden for saying that she shouldn't go.

1041
00:53:03,920 --> 00:53:07,840
Speaker 1: I mean this, look, Republicans can attack President Biden. That's fine.

1042
00:53:07,920 --> 00:53:10,960
Speaker 1: What bothers me most about the Pelosi trip is she

1043
00:53:11,080 --> 00:53:13,279
Speaker 1: is such a narcissist that she thinks she's going to

1044
00:53:13,360 --> 00:53:17,240
Speaker 1: take American foreign policy into her own hands. Not listen

1045
00:53:17,320 --> 00:53:19,680
Speaker 1: to the elected president of the United States who is

1046
00:53:19,680 --> 00:53:22,399
Speaker 1: in charge of foreign policy, who's like, hey, I don't

1047
00:53:22,440 --> 00:53:24,600
Speaker 1: want you to go. And then also don't listen when

1048
00:53:24,640 --> 00:53:27,200
Speaker 1: the US military it's like, just so you know, this

1049
00:53:27,239 --> 00:53:30,160
Speaker 1: could be a real problem. And then lo and behold.

1050
00:53:30,400 --> 00:53:34,240
Speaker 1: Immediately after she landed, that is when the rhetoric from China,

1051
00:53:34,280 --> 00:53:36,759
Speaker 1: not only rhetoric, but now action is beginning to ramp up.

1052
00:53:36,880 --> 00:53:39,360
Speaker 1: Let's put this up there, so, the Chinese ambassador said

1053
00:53:39,400 --> 00:53:43,120
Speaker 1: on CNN quote the speaker's visit is a major event

1054
00:53:43,280 --> 00:53:46,000
Speaker 1: upgrading the substance of relations between the US and Taiwan

1055
00:53:46,239 --> 00:53:49,840
Speaker 1: and sends a wrong signal to taiwan independent separatist forces.

1056
00:53:50,000 --> 00:53:52,719
Speaker 1: He adds that China will make its opposition known to

1057
00:53:52,920 --> 00:53:55,880
Speaker 1: all levels of the United States government. Furthermore, as I

1058
00:53:55,920 --> 00:53:58,719
Speaker 1: showed you before the Global Times commentators, let's go and

1059
00:53:58,719 --> 00:54:01,280
Speaker 1: put this up there. They are houting that the People's

1060
00:54:01,280 --> 00:54:04,799
Speaker 1: Liberation Army says that they will conduct live fire exercises

1061
00:54:04,840 --> 00:54:08,160
Speaker 1: in the six regions surrounding the Taiwan island. He is

1062
00:54:08,239 --> 00:54:11,120
Speaker 1: billing it as a quote situation that surpasses the nineteen

1063
00:54:11,200 --> 00:54:14,960
Speaker 1: ninety six Taiwan Strait crisis. This is not just a demonstration,

1064
00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:20,000
Speaker 1: an actual exercise to liberate Taiwan. Pilosi's visit is bound

1065
00:54:20,080 --> 00:54:23,200
Speaker 1: to speed up China's unification. This is from the most

1066
00:54:23,200 --> 00:54:26,840
Speaker 1: hawkish element of the CCP's global media arm and is

1067
00:54:26,920 --> 00:54:31,239
Speaker 1: directly messaged to us in English so that we can understand.

1068
00:54:31,440 --> 00:54:34,480
Speaker 1: But finally, just this morning, actually we're getting the news

1069
00:54:34,640 --> 00:54:38,160
Speaker 1: that the Japanese Defense Forces say that five missiles have

1070
00:54:38,200 --> 00:54:42,040
Speaker 1: been launched by China during military drills near Taiwan that

1071
00:54:42,160 --> 00:54:45,840
Speaker 1: fell into the Japanese Exclusive economic zone. Now, this is

1072
00:54:45,920 --> 00:54:50,560
Speaker 1: exactly why conflict in this region is so is so dangerous.

1073
00:54:50,800 --> 00:54:55,120
Speaker 1: It's not just Taiwan Taiwan, the Taiwan Straits, some fifty

1074
00:54:55,160 --> 00:54:58,360
Speaker 1: percent of GDP and stuff moves even through the Taiwan

1075
00:54:58,400 --> 00:55:01,200
Speaker 1: Straits or the Straits of Malaka. We have a treaty.

1076
00:55:01,280 --> 00:55:03,680
Speaker 1: Last time I checked with Japan, we have to come

1077
00:55:03,920 --> 00:55:06,799
Speaker 1: to their defense and any region conflict in that region

1078
00:55:06,800 --> 00:55:10,520
Speaker 1: would embroil us almost certainly give us treaty obligations. And

1079
00:55:10,560 --> 00:55:14,160
Speaker 1: so now the Japanese are dealing with Chinese missiles. This

1080
00:55:14,200 --> 00:55:17,279
Speaker 1: is like their greatest fear being fired into not only

1081
00:55:17,320 --> 00:55:20,720
Speaker 1: the Japanese Exclusive Economic Zone, but also in six areas

1082
00:55:20,719 --> 00:55:24,279
Speaker 1: that are surrounding Taiwan in very contested water. So now

1083
00:55:24,360 --> 00:55:26,560
Speaker 1: the question is what are we going to do, because

1084
00:55:26,600 --> 00:55:28,320
Speaker 1: what the Chinese did is they said we're going to

1085
00:55:28,400 --> 00:55:32,000
Speaker 1: be conducting live fire drills in these regions, basically saying

1086
00:55:32,239 --> 00:55:35,080
Speaker 1: don't come here, no aircraft and no ships. Are we

1087
00:55:35,200 --> 00:55:37,560
Speaker 1: going to abide by that? Are the Taiwanese going to

1088
00:55:37,600 --> 00:55:40,160
Speaker 1: abide by that? Are the Japanese going to abide by that?

1089
00:55:40,360 --> 00:55:42,680
Speaker 1: Are the South Koreans going to abide by that? And

1090
00:55:42,719 --> 00:55:46,920
Speaker 1: actually this morning extraordinary news, Crystal. The South Korean president

1091
00:55:47,360 --> 00:55:51,000
Speaker 1: refused to meet with Nancy Pelosi. Wow, and she's in

1092
00:55:51,080 --> 00:55:56,000
Speaker 1: the country. Wow. He said, scheduling conflicts. Now, listen, South Korea.

1093
00:55:56,200 --> 00:55:58,520
Speaker 1: It's a small country. You can fly across it in

1094
00:55:58,560 --> 00:56:01,040
Speaker 1: like three hours, the entire thing. So there ain't no

1095
00:56:01,040 --> 00:56:03,799
Speaker 1: scheduling conflict. It's going to stop you from meeting with

1096
00:56:03,880 --> 00:56:06,480
Speaker 1: the Speaker of the House. Clearly he is not happy

1097
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:10,560
Speaker 1: that whatever. He is not happy with her trip, doesn't

1098
00:56:10,600 --> 00:56:14,680
Speaker 1: want to meet with her. Possibly has domestic political considerations,

1099
00:56:14,760 --> 00:56:16,759
Speaker 1: but also the South Koreans have a hello, a lot

1100
00:56:16,760 --> 00:56:18,919
Speaker 1: of trade with China. And they have been on the

1101
00:56:19,040 --> 00:56:22,600
Speaker 1: back end of Chinese economic warfare in the past. These

1102
00:56:22,640 --> 00:56:24,839
Speaker 1: live fire drills, we don't yet know what the US

1103
00:56:24,920 --> 00:56:27,000
Speaker 1: military response is going to be. Are we going to

1104
00:56:27,040 --> 00:56:31,280
Speaker 1: respect the Chinese drug lines and the live fire drills?

1105
00:56:31,440 --> 00:56:33,839
Speaker 1: That's a huger question. Last time that there was a

1106
00:56:33,920 --> 00:56:37,320
Speaker 1: problem in the Taiwan Straits, we actually ran an entire

1107
00:56:37,800 --> 00:56:41,840
Speaker 1: naval group through the region as a massive display of

1108
00:56:41,960 --> 00:56:45,640
Speaker 1: US military force. That was in the nineteen nineties. Is

1109
00:56:45,680 --> 00:56:47,600
Speaker 1: that going to happen again, and then what is their

1110
00:56:47,920 --> 00:56:50,880
Speaker 1: response going to be? So now we have a multifaceted

1111
00:56:51,360 --> 00:56:54,560
Speaker 1: issue that we have to respond to solely of the

1112
00:56:54,600 --> 00:56:58,400
Speaker 1: making of Nancy Pelosi's narcissism. And for those who are

1113
00:56:58,440 --> 00:57:00,960
Speaker 1: like listen, we can't let the Chinese dictate, you know,

1114
00:57:01,040 --> 00:57:03,839
Speaker 1: where our politicians go. I don't disagree with you, but

1115
00:57:03,960 --> 00:57:06,640
Speaker 1: that also doesn't mean that we should not be wise

1116
00:57:06,920 --> 00:57:11,080
Speaker 1: in our exactly like listen. And actually this was the

1117
00:57:11,120 --> 00:57:13,920
Speaker 1: best take I heard so far, which is Nancy go

1118
00:57:14,040 --> 00:57:17,040
Speaker 1: in December. You know why, because that's after she gets

1119
00:57:17,080 --> 00:57:19,720
Speaker 1: his third term and he go over there. It actually

1120
00:57:19,760 --> 00:57:22,160
Speaker 1: makes more sense because then you won't be speaker in January.

1121
00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:24,360
Speaker 1: So it's like a farewell tour. You can do your

1122
00:57:24,400 --> 00:57:27,560
Speaker 1: little you know, like I'm here, I support democracy. Why

1123
00:57:27,600 --> 00:57:31,560
Speaker 1: now it's like these things are conscious choices on behalf

1124
00:57:31,760 --> 00:57:33,720
Speaker 1: of the US government, and people are trying to turn

1125
00:57:33,760 --> 00:57:36,360
Speaker 1: it into a principle. On the principle, I don't disagree,

1126
00:57:36,520 --> 00:57:38,280
Speaker 1: but my point is she should never have put she

1127
00:57:38,320 --> 00:57:41,400
Speaker 1: has put us in a terrible position. Well, not to mention,

1128
00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:45,040
Speaker 1: did the American people vote for Nancy Pelosi to run? No,

1129
00:57:45,160 --> 00:57:47,160
Speaker 1: they didn't. They voted for Joe Biden. They voted for

1130
00:57:47,240 --> 00:57:50,000
Speaker 1: Joe Biden. And listen, sometimes that's been okay and sometimes

1131
00:57:50,000 --> 00:57:52,040
Speaker 1: it's been terrible, but at least there was a say

1132
00:57:52,080 --> 00:57:53,920
Speaker 1: from the public about who they wanted to be in

1133
00:57:54,040 --> 00:57:57,520
Speaker 1: charge of these things. So I continue to be skeptical

1134
00:57:57,600 --> 00:58:00,880
Speaker 1: that I continue to not be a hundred percent sure

1135
00:58:00,960 --> 00:58:03,640
Speaker 1: that she really did this totally with the White House

1136
00:58:03,680 --> 00:58:06,720
Speaker 1: saying absolutely not. Biden did not call her directly, But

1137
00:58:06,840 --> 00:58:09,280
Speaker 1: let's take it face value that this was her freelancing

1138
00:58:09,320 --> 00:58:11,120
Speaker 1: and just doing whatever the hell she wanted to do.

1139
00:58:11,600 --> 00:58:17,040
Speaker 1: It is so incredibly insane, so anti democratic, and you know,

1140
00:58:17,280 --> 00:58:21,400
Speaker 1: these wargames that China's running that almost completely encircle the

1141
00:58:21,480 --> 00:58:25,440
Speaker 1: island of Taiwan. This is essentially like a mock invasion,

1142
00:58:25,760 --> 00:58:30,520
Speaker 1: so it's extraordinarily ominous and troubling if you are on

1143
00:58:30,800 --> 00:58:34,439
Speaker 1: if you were Taiwanese. And they also have are set

1144
00:58:34,520 --> 00:58:38,200
Speaker 1: to impose economic sanctions against Taiwan. Now they say that

1145
00:58:38,200 --> 00:58:40,400
Speaker 1: that's for they made up some reason why they're doing this,

1146
00:58:40,680 --> 00:58:43,160
Speaker 1: but they've announced a suspension on the import of certain

1147
00:58:43,200 --> 00:58:47,200
Speaker 1: fruits and seafood products from the island Chinese customs and

1148
00:58:47,240 --> 00:58:50,600
Speaker 1: separate statement they pegged the suspensions to hygiene concerns. But

1149
00:58:50,640 --> 00:58:53,760
Speaker 1: this is apparently not the first time that they have used,

1150
00:58:54,240 --> 00:58:57,160
Speaker 1: you know, the weapon of economics and trade in order

1151
00:58:57,200 --> 00:58:59,880
Speaker 1: to punish Taiwan for things that they were not happy about.

1152
00:59:00,120 --> 00:59:02,960
Speaker 1: So the biggest costs immediately that will be born are

1153
00:59:03,080 --> 00:59:05,720
Speaker 1: the Taiwanese people directly. Yes, And what I worry about

1154
00:59:05,720 --> 00:59:09,920
Speaker 1: the most is unintended miscalculation. So a lot of people

1155
00:59:09,920 --> 00:59:12,080
Speaker 1: forget this because it happened right before nine to eleven,

1156
00:59:12,120 --> 00:59:14,560
Speaker 1: But there was this incident on I think it's called

1157
00:59:14,640 --> 00:59:18,960
Speaker 1: Hainan Island where a US military spy plane was flying

1158
00:59:19,040 --> 00:59:24,280
Speaker 1: and actually collided mid air with a Chinese jet. That aircraft,

1159
00:59:24,320 --> 00:59:27,200
Speaker 1: the spy aircraft was then forced to be downed on

1160
00:59:27,320 --> 00:59:30,920
Speaker 1: It was a Chinese territory called Hainan Island. This ignited

1161
00:59:31,080 --> 00:59:36,040
Speaker 1: a global crisis because we had our airmen spy you know,

1162
00:59:36,120 --> 00:59:40,520
Speaker 1: spy aircraft airmen stranded in China and the Bush administration

1163
00:59:40,800 --> 00:59:44,480
Speaker 1: had to go and get them. It ignited serious issues.

1164
00:59:44,480 --> 00:59:47,200
Speaker 1: The Chinese were like, you're encroaching on our airsprace. They

1165
00:59:47,200 --> 00:59:50,520
Speaker 1: accused us of like downing their aircraft, and we had

1166
00:59:50,560 --> 00:59:52,000
Speaker 1: to like send some people over there. It was a

1167
00:59:52,080 --> 00:59:54,760
Speaker 1: high stakes topload, a gamble. Basically nine to eleven happens,

1168
00:59:54,760 --> 00:59:57,400
Speaker 1: So everybody forgot about it. But look, I mean it's

1169
00:59:57,440 --> 01:00:00,760
Speaker 1: been twenty years. How would that play right now? I mean,

1170
01:00:00,840 --> 01:00:04,840
Speaker 1: we had these issues, and this only increases the likelihood

1171
01:00:05,080 --> 01:00:07,480
Speaker 1: of exactly something like that. And apparently I'm not the

1172
01:00:07,560 --> 01:00:10,560
Speaker 1: only one thinking this. David Sanger, who is like the

1173
01:00:10,560 --> 01:00:13,080
Speaker 1: dean of the Washington Foreign policy press in the New

1174
01:00:13,160 --> 01:00:17,680
Speaker 1: York Times right specifically that the administration is incredibly worried

1175
01:00:17,800 --> 01:00:21,760
Speaker 1: exactly about some sort of military incursion that leads to

1176
01:00:21,800 --> 01:00:25,240
Speaker 1: airspace midair conflict, which is not only this, but also missiles.

1177
01:00:25,280 --> 01:00:27,960
Speaker 1: You know, look, missiles whenever they're fired. Part of the

1178
01:00:28,000 --> 01:00:29,920
Speaker 1: issue that we were always so terrified with the North

1179
01:00:30,000 --> 01:00:32,200
Speaker 1: Koreans as they wouldn't tell anybody that something was happening.

1180
01:00:32,240 --> 01:00:34,040
Speaker 1: It could hit a seven thirty seven, and actually it

1181
01:00:34,080 --> 01:00:38,640
Speaker 1: came close one time. So these all sorts of unintended consequences,

1182
01:00:38,680 --> 01:00:42,000
Speaker 1: especially when you're shooting over Japanese island and landing in

1183
01:00:42,080 --> 01:00:45,000
Speaker 1: economic zones. I mean there are ships and global shipping containers,

1184
01:00:45,000 --> 01:00:47,520
Speaker 1: there are people all over these places. And when you

1185
01:00:47,520 --> 01:00:49,840
Speaker 1: start to play with real guns, you know, it can

1186
01:00:50,000 --> 01:00:53,360
Speaker 1: raise the stakes significantly. And what they say is that

1187
01:00:54,080 --> 01:00:57,920
Speaker 1: right now inside the Pentagon there is an incredible amount

1188
01:00:57,920 --> 01:01:02,720
Speaker 1: of worry about how to respond to this military exercise.

1189
01:01:02,920 --> 01:01:05,920
Speaker 1: They don't know what to do. They also don't know

1190
01:01:06,120 --> 01:01:08,720
Speaker 1: what the next step is from there. So the amount

1191
01:01:08,760 --> 01:01:12,600
Speaker 1: of uncertainty that Nancy Pelosi has injected into the global

1192
01:01:12,640 --> 01:01:16,200
Speaker 1: strategic environment is just immense. And I want to emphasize

1193
01:01:16,200 --> 01:01:20,640
Speaker 1: again Ukraine. Look, yes, Americans have paid hundreds of billions

1194
01:01:20,680 --> 01:01:25,160
Speaker 1: of dollars with Ukraine. It is nothing compared to what

1195
01:01:25,400 --> 01:01:28,920
Speaker 1: even let's say, a one week shutdown of the Taiwan

1196
01:01:28,960 --> 01:01:32,080
Speaker 1: Straits would look like the US economy. There are no

1197
01:01:32,120 --> 01:01:35,360
Speaker 1: more phones, there are no more television, there's no consumer electronics.

1198
01:01:35,360 --> 01:01:39,560
Speaker 1: There's no more fridges if TSMC goes down tomorrow. Beyond that,

1199
01:01:40,400 --> 01:01:44,320
Speaker 1: a gas, the amount of oil of hard commodities that

1200
01:01:44,360 --> 01:01:47,240
Speaker 1: ship between China and the United States, not to mention

1201
01:01:47,400 --> 01:01:49,680
Speaker 1: Chinese industry, A lot of people do not notice this,

1202
01:01:50,000 --> 01:01:52,600
Speaker 1: and I have very mixed feelings. One of the largest

1203
01:01:52,600 --> 01:01:55,440
Speaker 1: EV battery manufacturers in the world, a Chinese company, was

1204
01:01:55,480 --> 01:01:57,360
Speaker 1: about to open a plant here in the US, and

1205
01:01:57,360 --> 01:01:58,560
Speaker 1: now they're like, well, we're not going to do it

1206
01:01:58,560 --> 01:02:01,760
Speaker 1: because of the Taiwanese I'm like, well, it's not terrible things.

1207
01:02:01,760 --> 01:02:04,520
Speaker 1: You don't really want the Chinese EV battery manufacturing, But

1208
01:02:04,680 --> 01:02:06,520
Speaker 1: it just tells you, like, look, they have a lot

1209
01:02:06,560 --> 01:02:08,840
Speaker 1: of investment, they have a lot of power that they

1210
01:02:08,840 --> 01:02:10,440
Speaker 1: can play. And that was really the tip of the

1211
01:02:10,440 --> 01:02:14,520
Speaker 1: iceberg too, So beyond their own control of our economy,

1212
01:02:14,920 --> 01:02:17,440
Speaker 1: a one week, two week shutdown, even a couple of

1213
01:02:17,520 --> 01:02:21,000
Speaker 1: days would the amount of chaos it would inject into

1214
01:02:21,280 --> 01:02:24,880
Speaker 1: the global economy is just very, very difficult to actually

1215
01:02:25,080 --> 01:02:27,320
Speaker 1: convey so well, and it is worth saying that the

1216
01:02:27,400 --> 01:02:30,080
Speaker 1: politicians who let us to that place deserve a lot

1217
01:02:30,120 --> 01:02:33,400
Speaker 1: of blame for putting us in that state of fragility.

1218
01:02:33,480 --> 01:02:36,440
Speaker 1: And you know, state of procarity, which I think is

1219
01:02:36,760 --> 01:02:39,800
Speaker 1: extraordinarily important not to lose sight of. There is one

1220
01:02:39,840 --> 01:02:42,120
Speaker 1: other piece from a legislative perspective that I just saw

1221
01:02:42,120 --> 01:02:44,880
Speaker 1: this morning. So the White House is also lobbying Democrats

1222
01:02:44,920 --> 01:02:50,080
Speaker 1: against a legislative bid to deepen Taiwan ties. This proposal,

1223
01:02:50,360 --> 01:02:53,560
Speaker 1: which is being sponsored by Bob Menendez who's a Democrat,

1224
01:02:53,560 --> 01:02:56,960
Speaker 1: and Lindsay Graham, of course as a Republican, would designate

1225
01:02:57,000 --> 01:03:01,560
Speaker 1: Taiwan as a major non NATO ally and could further

1226
01:03:01,680 --> 01:03:04,680
Speaker 1: inflame tensions with China, and the White House is very

1227
01:03:04,720 --> 01:03:07,720
Speaker 1: concerned about this as well. It would also provide Taiwan

1228
01:03:07,800 --> 01:03:10,560
Speaker 1: with four and a half billion dollars in additional security

1229
01:03:10,560 --> 01:03:14,080
Speaker 1: aid and support its participation in the international organizations. But

1230
01:03:14,160 --> 01:03:17,120
Speaker 1: in some ways the designation, you know, that sort of

1231
01:03:17,120 --> 01:03:20,760
Speaker 1: official designation as a major non NATO ally is the

1232
01:03:20,800 --> 01:03:22,800
Speaker 1: most significant part. So the White House is trying to

1233
01:03:22,840 --> 01:03:26,320
Speaker 1: slow that down as well, so that they don't further

1234
01:03:26,560 --> 01:03:29,600
Speaker 1: escalate an already tense situation with China. Yeah, I just

1235
01:03:29,720 --> 01:03:35,560
Speaker 1: everybody eyes on Taiwan on the US military response. Josh Rogan,

1236
01:03:35,600 --> 01:03:37,760
Speaker 1: who actually was supporter of the trip, but I actually

1237
01:03:37,800 --> 01:03:39,440
Speaker 1: think he had quite a good column, which is that

1238
01:03:39,480 --> 01:03:42,120
Speaker 1: the fallout from the Pelosi visit. It starts now. It's

1239
01:03:42,160 --> 01:03:45,080
Speaker 1: really today, August fourth is the first day of the

1240
01:03:45,120 --> 01:03:47,840
Speaker 1: live fire drills. Those are now going to continue over

1241
01:03:47,880 --> 01:03:49,920
Speaker 1: the next couple of days. Next question is what's the

1242
01:03:50,040 --> 01:03:52,200
Speaker 1: US military do. So now we're going to have to

1243
01:03:52,240 --> 01:03:55,400
Speaker 1: have our response, the Pacific Command and all of that,

1244
01:03:55,520 --> 01:03:58,440
Speaker 1: where our ship's aircraft carriers they are going to be stationed.

1245
01:03:58,440 --> 01:04:00,680
Speaker 1: Then the Chinese are going to do something about it.

1246
01:04:00,720 --> 01:04:03,400
Speaker 1: So this is a month's long problem. And I also

1247
01:04:03,440 --> 01:04:05,360
Speaker 1: feel for the people in Taiwan. Like you just said,

1248
01:04:05,560 --> 01:04:09,320
Speaker 1: economic sanctions being placed there on the Taiwanese. China has

1249
01:04:09,360 --> 01:04:12,560
Speaker 1: a tremendous amount of leverage over the Taiwanese economy. We

1250
01:04:12,640 --> 01:04:16,360
Speaker 1: have also prevailed on China not to arm Russia. Yes,

1251
01:04:16,400 --> 01:04:20,840
Speaker 1: directly military aid Russia, and that has been successful. I mean,

1252
01:04:20,960 --> 01:04:24,400
Speaker 1: China has hastly supported Russia in a lot of ways,

1253
01:04:24,400 --> 01:04:26,720
Speaker 1: but hasn't sort of directly gotten involved in that conflict.

1254
01:04:26,760 --> 01:04:28,520
Speaker 1: That's another chip they hold in all of this. So

1255
01:04:28,840 --> 01:04:32,320
Speaker 1: great point. And also the Russians did support the did

1256
01:04:32,400 --> 01:04:35,200
Speaker 1: actually support the Chinese and said that the US should

1257
01:04:35,240 --> 01:04:38,760
Speaker 1: not meddle in Taiwan. And they called it internal sovereignty.

1258
01:04:38,920 --> 01:04:41,440
Speaker 1: Obviously they have an incentive to look at the world. Yeah,

1259
01:04:41,520 --> 01:04:44,920
Speaker 1: that way, But you know, alliance between the two was

1260
01:04:44,920 --> 01:04:47,200
Speaker 1: one of the nightmares of the Cold War in the

1261
01:04:47,240 --> 01:04:50,560
Speaker 1: nineteen fifties. So lots of stuff that's going on there. Indeed,

1262
01:04:50,680 --> 01:04:54,600
Speaker 1: all right, CNN, best for last, you got to there

1263
01:04:54,640 --> 01:04:56,400
Speaker 1: is good news in the world. There is great news

1264
01:04:57,000 --> 01:04:58,600
Speaker 1: and a lot to say. Actually, let's put this up

1265
01:04:58,600 --> 01:05:02,920
Speaker 1: there on the screenfit slump at CNN as ratings plummet,

1266
01:05:03,000 --> 01:05:05,840
Speaker 1: the network is on pace to drop below one billion

1267
01:05:05,880 --> 01:05:09,640
Speaker 1: dollars per profit for the first time in years. Now,

1268
01:05:09,720 --> 01:05:13,000
Speaker 1: why does this matter? Number one? It does show you,

1269
01:05:13,040 --> 01:05:15,880
Speaker 1: and I've tried to emphasize this. CNN is still very, very,

1270
01:05:15,960 --> 01:05:18,920
Speaker 1: very profitable. They are still yes, they're below a billion,

1271
01:05:18,960 --> 01:05:21,440
Speaker 1: but they're gonna make nine hundred and seventy five million

1272
01:05:21,600 --> 01:05:24,040
Speaker 1: in profit Christal or sorry, nine hundred fifty six million

1273
01:05:24,200 --> 01:05:27,960
Speaker 1: in profit. The reason, though, is that for a long time,

1274
01:05:28,200 --> 01:05:32,360
Speaker 1: the vast majority of CNN's profits did not rely on

1275
01:05:32,480 --> 01:05:36,320
Speaker 1: ratings or advertising. They relied on the cable bundle and

1276
01:05:36,400 --> 01:05:39,720
Speaker 1: subscription fees. That is what keeps all three of these

1277
01:05:39,760 --> 01:05:43,120
Speaker 1: cable channels afloat if they had to rely purely on advertising,

1278
01:05:43,160 --> 01:05:46,160
Speaker 1: they're dead tomorrow. And what this shows you, though, is

1279
01:05:46,160 --> 01:05:49,160
Speaker 1: that the really like three legged stool of their revenue,

1280
01:05:49,360 --> 01:05:52,800
Speaker 1: one of those is beginning to significantly weaken and crack,

1281
01:05:52,920 --> 01:05:54,960
Speaker 1: which is the ratings. They point to the fact that

1282
01:05:55,000 --> 01:05:58,960
Speaker 1: CNN's audience is down twenty five percent, even more so

1283
01:05:59,040 --> 01:06:02,840
Speaker 1: than MSNBE and other benchmarks, And the biggest problem for

1284
01:06:02,880 --> 01:06:06,320
Speaker 1: them really is just how bad the viewership is. So

1285
01:06:06,520 --> 01:06:10,760
Speaker 1: to give you guys an idea, in the primetime network,

1286
01:06:10,840 --> 01:06:15,800
Speaker 1: the primetime slot, the average in the quarter primetime is

1287
01:06:15,840 --> 01:06:19,360
Speaker 1: six hundred and thirty nine thousand people. That is less

1288
01:06:19,360 --> 01:06:22,640
Speaker 1: than something that's actually less than some off days of

1289
01:06:22,680 --> 01:06:24,880
Speaker 1: breaking points. Now I'm not claiming and they were making

1290
01:06:24,920 --> 01:06:28,720
Speaker 1: a billion dollars in profits. It'd be nice if we were.

1291
01:06:29,200 --> 01:06:33,400
Speaker 1: But I'm just giving you an perspective of how few

1292
01:06:33,760 --> 01:06:38,480
Speaker 1: people are watching this in primetime, which is the place

1293
01:06:38,520 --> 01:06:42,200
Speaker 1: where look. Even MSNBC is drawing two million, you know,

1294
01:06:42,360 --> 01:06:45,280
Speaker 1: Tucker's drawing like four million in this time slot. Well,

1295
01:06:45,320 --> 01:06:48,480
Speaker 1: and most of those people don't matter for advertising revenue

1296
01:06:48,520 --> 01:06:50,960
Speaker 1: because they're outside of the key down moodus. Now we're

1297
01:06:50,960 --> 01:06:53,160
Speaker 1: talking like fifty thousand yeah, in terms of cable news

1298
01:06:53,200 --> 01:06:55,800
Speaker 1: like that. I know a lot of times they report

1299
01:06:55,960 --> 01:06:59,440
Speaker 1: the total numbers, but the only thing that actually matters

1300
01:06:59,480 --> 01:07:01,640
Speaker 1: is the key, which is, you know, if they're getting

1301
01:07:01,680 --> 01:07:05,000
Speaker 1: six hundred k overall, they're probably getting like maybe one

1302
01:07:05,000 --> 01:07:07,800
Speaker 1: point fifty in the demo. So it's pretty pathetic. Oh

1303
01:07:07,840 --> 01:07:10,120
Speaker 1: it's not just pathetic, but it also does show you

1304
01:07:10,200 --> 01:07:13,080
Speaker 1: that the network is under tremending amount of pressure because

1305
01:07:13,320 --> 01:07:16,600
Speaker 1: they just blew some three hundred million dollars on CNN plus,

1306
01:07:16,920 --> 01:07:19,880
Speaker 1: which they had to fold. But remember this too, in

1307
01:07:19,960 --> 01:07:24,680
Speaker 1: the economic environment of right now, profit is king because

1308
01:07:24,720 --> 01:07:27,600
Speaker 1: they need the excess cash for their major holding company,

1309
01:07:27,800 --> 01:07:30,160
Speaker 1: which is now Discovery, and they point to this that

1310
01:07:30,280 --> 01:07:33,360
Speaker 1: Discovery for the time being is like, hey, look CNN,

1311
01:07:33,440 --> 01:07:35,160
Speaker 1: we want it to just be news, we want it

1312
01:07:35,160 --> 01:07:37,439
Speaker 1: to be facts, and we're okay if the profits go down.

1313
01:07:37,720 --> 01:07:41,120
Speaker 1: Name me the CEO of a public company that actually

1314
01:07:41,320 --> 01:07:43,960
Speaker 1: is okay with this profits going down. This is what

1315
01:07:44,000 --> 01:07:46,560
Speaker 1: you've always predicted, which is they'll say it, they'll stick

1316
01:07:46,600 --> 01:07:49,280
Speaker 1: to it for six months, and then when the money

1317
01:07:49,360 --> 01:07:52,200
Speaker 1: becomes clear, they're going right back to the bs that

1318
01:07:52,240 --> 01:07:54,800
Speaker 1: made them, because we'll see, the most deranged person is

1319
01:07:54,800 --> 01:07:57,200
Speaker 1: the one that gets the highest rating. Exact, they won't

1320
01:07:57,240 --> 01:08:00,120
Speaker 1: be able to resists. That's the way it goes. I

1321
01:08:00,160 --> 01:08:02,320
Speaker 1: did think it was interesting. So the new guy in

1322
01:08:02,440 --> 01:08:05,640
Speaker 1: charge there, Chris lickt He says CNN would generate revenue

1323
01:08:05,640 --> 01:08:09,240
Speaker 1: by pitching advertisers on the network's quote Christine brand Loll,

1324
01:08:09,680 --> 01:08:12,000
Speaker 1: not just sheer audience size, according to a recording of

1325
01:08:12,000 --> 01:08:14,360
Speaker 1: his remarks obtained by The New York Times. So, I

1326
01:08:14,400 --> 01:08:17,839
Speaker 1: mean there is a strategy there that like, for example,

1327
01:08:17,880 --> 01:08:21,640
Speaker 1: Morning Joe has never been and this is CNBC's strategy.

1328
01:08:22,040 --> 01:08:25,120
Speaker 1: Small audience, but very wealthy, high value, and so it's

1329
01:08:25,200 --> 01:08:29,360
Speaker 1: high value for Morning Joe. It's small audience, but they're

1330
01:08:29,439 --> 01:08:32,479
Speaker 1: very influential, so it's like you know, a cachet and

1331
01:08:32,520 --> 01:08:36,680
Speaker 1: again very profit, very valuable, high value audience. So I

1332
01:08:36,680 --> 01:08:41,120
Speaker 1: mean there is a potential strategy there, But CNN is

1333
01:08:41,160 --> 01:08:44,320
Speaker 1: meant to be for like the broad masses. That has

1334
01:08:44,360 --> 01:08:47,120
Speaker 1: always been the sort of positioning of it. So if

1335
01:08:47,120 --> 01:08:49,320
Speaker 1: you're going to go in this Morniche direction, it's just

1336
01:08:49,400 --> 01:08:52,880
Speaker 1: hard to see exactly how you carveound that lane. Morning

1337
01:08:52,920 --> 01:08:55,800
Speaker 1: Joe obviously does it by being like the clubby Insider

1338
01:08:55,840 --> 01:08:59,160
Speaker 1: place where members of Congress. Come on, they're watching it

1339
01:08:59,200 --> 01:09:04,720
Speaker 1: in the Senate or whatever. You've got CNBC, they or Bloomberg.

1340
01:09:05,080 --> 01:09:07,840
Speaker 1: They pull it off by you know, catering to Wall

1341
01:09:07,840 --> 01:09:11,840
Speaker 1: Street and money. And so I don't know what CNN's

1342
01:09:12,080 --> 01:09:14,920
Speaker 1: version of that. I don't know what that really looks like.

1343
01:09:15,240 --> 01:09:17,600
Speaker 1: The failure of CNN Plus was a problem, not just

1344
01:09:17,640 --> 01:09:19,720
Speaker 1: because of the massive hundreds of millions of dollars that

1345
01:09:19,760 --> 01:09:23,640
Speaker 1: they blew on it, but because that was their strategy. Like,

1346
01:09:23,680 --> 01:09:27,559
Speaker 1: they knew that this was coming. All these cable news

1347
01:09:27,640 --> 01:09:29,720
Speaker 1: prior to Trump, they all knew that they had a

1348
01:09:29,760 --> 01:09:32,720
Speaker 1: real problem. That they had this aging demographic, they had

1349
01:09:32,720 --> 01:09:35,519
Speaker 1: all these cord cutters, there's all this competition out there.

1350
01:09:35,600 --> 01:09:39,360
Speaker 1: People young people are not they don't have cable, they're

1351
01:09:39,400 --> 01:09:41,639
Speaker 1: not watching cable. Like, they all knew that this day

1352
01:09:41,640 --> 01:09:45,680
Speaker 1: of reckoning was coming, and so CNN Plus was Zucker's

1353
01:09:45,880 --> 01:09:49,559
Speaker 1: big bid to all right, this is the future. You know,

1354
01:09:49,640 --> 01:09:51,519
Speaker 1: they really sold it that way. They said when it

1355
01:09:51,600 --> 01:09:54,120
Speaker 1: launched that this was the most historic day in CNN

1356
01:09:54,240 --> 01:09:57,880
Speaker 1: history since the launch of the network. That's truly how

1357
01:09:57,920 --> 01:10:01,759
Speaker 1: they envision this. So when that fell on its face

1358
01:10:01,840 --> 01:10:05,320
Speaker 1: and the plug is pulled immediately, that really leads them

1359
01:10:05,439 --> 01:10:08,880
Speaker 1: with no long term strategy to speak of of how

1360
01:10:08,920 --> 01:10:10,760
Speaker 1: they're going to change this model to make sense for

1361
01:10:10,800 --> 01:10:12,639
Speaker 1: the future. It's also a good pro tip which, as

1362
01:10:12,640 --> 01:10:16,080
Speaker 1: they mentioned, Look, we all have power in this. The

1363
01:10:16,080 --> 01:10:18,000
Speaker 1: more of us that cut the cord and the less

1364
01:10:18,000 --> 01:10:20,000
Speaker 1: of us that have cable, the less money that the

1365
01:10:20,040 --> 01:10:23,280
Speaker 1: cable companies are going to pay CNN and Fox and MSNBC.

1366
01:10:23,640 --> 01:10:26,400
Speaker 1: The number one Also, if you hate ESPN, the number

1367
01:10:26,439 --> 01:10:29,920
Speaker 1: one way to stick it to mainstream media is to

1368
01:10:30,200 --> 01:10:33,960
Speaker 1: actually not have cable in the first place, having the

1369
01:10:33,960 --> 01:10:38,240
Speaker 1: Internet and giving more leverage to bargainers who want exclusive

1370
01:10:38,240 --> 01:10:40,719
Speaker 1: streaming rights and more like. For example, I am rooting

1371
01:10:40,880 --> 01:10:43,960
Speaker 1: hard for YouTube or for some other streamer to buy

1372
01:10:44,080 --> 01:10:46,840
Speaker 1: NFL rights. I don't watch the NFL. You know why

1373
01:10:46,920 --> 01:10:49,760
Speaker 1: because I know that NFL in live sports is the

1374
01:10:49,880 --> 01:10:53,240
Speaker 1: only reason tens of millions of Americans still have the

1375
01:10:53,240 --> 01:10:56,719
Speaker 1: cable bundle today. If we can destroy the cable bundle,

1376
01:10:56,880 --> 01:10:59,400
Speaker 1: they're done. All they care about is their customers. If

1377
01:10:59,400 --> 01:11:01,599
Speaker 1: they know that they're cutustomers just want more high speed Internet.

1378
01:11:01,640 --> 01:11:03,639
Speaker 1: They're not going to pay CNN out of the kindness

1379
01:11:03,920 --> 01:11:06,960
Speaker 1: of their hearts comcasts. Although they offload at NBC and

1380
01:11:07,000 --> 01:11:08,840
Speaker 1: all these other stuff or trying to for a reason,

1381
01:11:08,880 --> 01:11:13,040
Speaker 1: because they're not profitable businesses outside of this very very

1382
01:11:13,160 --> 01:11:16,600
Speaker 1: very archaic model from the nineteen eighties. So this is

1383
01:11:16,680 --> 01:11:20,800
Speaker 1: the last area of real disruption, the last place that

1384
01:11:20,880 --> 01:11:24,800
Speaker 1: the Internet can destroy them. And CNN is watching what

1385
01:11:24,840 --> 01:11:28,559
Speaker 1: it means for the world to increasingly move to online content.

1386
01:11:28,640 --> 01:11:32,400
Speaker 1: They've proven that they cannot compete whatsoever in an actual

1387
01:11:32,640 --> 01:11:37,280
Speaker 1: digital environment. And overall this is just a great news

1388
01:11:37,360 --> 01:11:39,840
Speaker 1: because yeah, it does show me the market worked. It

1389
01:11:39,840 --> 01:11:42,680
Speaker 1: takes too long sometime, but it can work, and it

1390
01:11:42,720 --> 01:11:44,760
Speaker 1: can take these people out. Listen, I cheer for their

1391
01:11:44,760 --> 01:11:46,559
Speaker 1: failure because they're terrible for the cunt Yeah they really,

1392
01:11:46,640 --> 01:11:49,080
Speaker 1: I mean they really are terrible, the CNN and the SNBC,

1393
01:11:49,200 --> 01:11:51,719
Speaker 1: Fox News, they are terrible for the country. I support

1394
01:11:51,760 --> 01:11:54,479
Speaker 1: a just transition for the workers. I think they should

1395
01:11:54,479 --> 01:11:57,240
Speaker 1: be trained to code or other industries. I have a

1396
01:11:57,240 --> 01:11:59,960
Speaker 1: friend who works. There's a good guy. I hope you land.

1397
01:12:00,120 --> 01:12:03,200
Speaker 1: Yeah means yes, there are plenty of good people are

1398
01:12:03,240 --> 01:12:05,120
Speaker 1: just trying to make their way in the world who

1399
01:12:05,160 --> 01:12:07,760
Speaker 1: work in these places. As I said, I support just

1400
01:12:07,840 --> 01:12:10,320
Speaker 1: transition for them, but they need to be moved out

1401
01:12:10,320 --> 01:12:12,920
Speaker 1: of an industry that is destroying the country. Yeah, until

1402
01:12:12,920 --> 01:12:30,080
Speaker 1: we can figure out what the hell is going on, Crystal,

1403
01:12:30,120 --> 01:12:31,880
Speaker 1: what do you take on a look at? Well, quite

1404
01:12:31,880 --> 01:12:36,280
Speaker 1: extraordinary is happening right now. So multiple standard issue establishment

1405
01:12:36,320 --> 01:12:39,320
Speaker 1: Democrats are either refusing to say whether they're going to

1406
01:12:39,360 --> 01:12:42,960
Speaker 1: back Biden in twenty twenty four or outright rejecting him.

1407
01:12:43,160 --> 01:12:45,439
Speaker 1: The rush to separate from Biden started with Joe Manchin,

1408
01:12:45,479 --> 01:12:47,880
Speaker 1: who has repeatedly refused to say if he would be

1409
01:12:47,880 --> 01:12:52,120
Speaker 1: behind the current president, would you support Joe Biden if

1410
01:12:52,160 --> 01:12:54,200
Speaker 1: he's on the ticket in twenty twenty four? Is a

1411
01:12:54,280 --> 01:12:58,519
Speaker 1: Democratic president seeking re election? Let me make it very

1412
01:12:58,640 --> 01:13:01,800
Speaker 1: very clear. This is the most one of the most

1413
01:13:01,800 --> 01:13:04,679
Speaker 1: important pieces of legislation in my lifetime that we've ever done.

1414
01:13:05,000 --> 01:13:08,599
Speaker 1: To have energy security, to fight inflation, to help our

1415
01:13:08,640 --> 01:13:13,800
Speaker 1: geopoliticalser a Democrats God has. And that's exactly and I'm

1416
01:13:13,840 --> 01:13:16,320
Speaker 1: working with it. I'm very appreciative they are. But for

1417
01:13:16,439 --> 01:13:18,840
Speaker 1: me to bring the politics into it, Oh, this is

1418
01:13:18,880 --> 01:13:21,679
Speaker 1: a Democrat bill. Oh, this is an anti Republican bill.

1419
01:13:21,840 --> 01:13:24,599
Speaker 1: This is not I'm not talking about the twenty twenty

1420
01:13:24,640 --> 01:13:27,599
Speaker 1: two election and twenty twenty four. I have no control

1421
01:13:27,640 --> 01:13:31,560
Speaker 1: over those elections. I mean, it's Joe Manchin, and he

1422
01:13:31,680 --> 01:13:33,800
Speaker 1: loves to pretend he's not really a Democrats. That is

1423
01:13:33,840 --> 01:13:36,599
Speaker 1: not that crazy, right, well, he is not even close

1424
01:13:36,680 --> 01:13:41,719
Speaker 1: to alone. So two Minnesota Democrats are facing tough reelects

1425
01:13:41,760 --> 01:13:44,439
Speaker 1: and they're calling for a new generation of leaders in

1426
01:13:44,520 --> 01:13:48,879
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party, specifically with regards to Joe Biden. Carrson

1427
01:13:48,920 --> 01:13:51,280
Speaker 1: Dean Phillips went so far as to say that Biden

1428
01:13:51,360 --> 01:13:55,240
Speaker 1: should not run. Angie Craig, a corporatist from the Minneapolis suburbs,

1429
01:13:55,360 --> 01:13:57,519
Speaker 1: said Biden could make up his own mind about whether

1430
01:13:57,600 --> 01:13:59,800
Speaker 1: to run, but that she agreed with Phillips on the

1431
01:14:00,040 --> 01:14:03,200
Speaker 1: need for new leaders. But wait, there's more. In a

1432
01:14:03,439 --> 01:14:07,639
Speaker 1: real stunner, two senior Democratic representatives who are very close

1433
01:14:07,680 --> 01:14:12,120
Speaker 1: to leadership also refused to back Biden. So Jerry Nadler

1434
01:14:12,160 --> 01:14:14,120
Speaker 1: and Carolyn malonean right now, they are facing off in

1435
01:14:14,160 --> 01:14:17,600
Speaker 1: an incumbent versus incumbent primary in Manhattan thanks to redistricting,

1436
01:14:17,760 --> 01:14:21,280
Speaker 1: and in a recent debate, neither one would say that

1437
01:14:21,400 --> 01:14:25,080
Speaker 1: they are behind the president. Nadler refused, and Maloney said

1438
01:14:25,080 --> 01:14:28,200
Speaker 1: that she did not believe that he was running. Folks,

1439
01:14:28,560 --> 01:14:31,280
Speaker 1: this is truly wild, and I actually am shocked by it.

1440
01:14:31,479 --> 01:14:35,880
Speaker 1: To reiterate, you now have mainstream centrist type and liberal

1441
01:14:35,960 --> 01:14:40,839
Speaker 1: Democrats from swing districts to solid blue districts blatantly rejecting Biden.

1442
01:14:41,040 --> 01:14:44,120
Speaker 1: It is jaw dropping, and it should be viewed in

1443
01:14:44,160 --> 01:14:46,439
Speaker 1: the light of a growing pile of data demonstrating that

1444
01:14:46,600 --> 01:14:49,519
Speaker 1: rank and file Democrats they also want to move on

1445
01:14:49,640 --> 01:14:52,839
Speaker 1: from Biden. The fact that some slice of establishment elites

1446
01:14:52,840 --> 01:14:56,360
Speaker 1: are saying they agree demonstrates there is a real opening

1447
01:14:56,439 --> 01:14:58,519
Speaker 1: here for a candidate to be able to assemble a

1448
01:14:58,640 --> 01:15:01,639
Speaker 1: broad coalition and act actually defeat Biden in the twenty

1449
01:15:01,680 --> 01:15:04,400
Speaker 1: twenty four primary. Because if you dig into the data

1450
01:15:04,520 --> 01:15:06,880
Speaker 1: of who among the rank and file is ready to

1451
01:15:06,960 --> 01:15:10,200
Speaker 1: ditch Biden, the numbers are actually really consistent across about

1452
01:15:10,280 --> 01:15:14,599
Speaker 1: every dynamic. So young people are the most ready, but race, class, gender,

1453
01:15:14,680 --> 01:15:18,160
Speaker 1: and ideology don't actually appear to be significant factors. If

1454
01:15:18,200 --> 01:15:20,679
Speaker 1: you had a campaign that could properly thread the needle,

1455
01:15:21,080 --> 01:15:23,960
Speaker 1: you could have a really interesting horseshoe of moderates who

1456
01:15:24,000 --> 01:15:27,439
Speaker 1: feel Biden is unelectable and unimpressive with progressives who have

1457
01:15:27,520 --> 01:15:29,840
Speaker 1: always had a very sharp critique. Here are some of

1458
01:15:29,920 --> 01:15:32,080
Speaker 1: my early thoughts and how you could manage to pull

1459
01:15:32,160 --> 01:15:34,200
Speaker 1: that off. So first off, you'd have to lead with

1460
01:15:34,240 --> 01:15:36,800
Speaker 1: a message about electability. Just as in twenty twenty, the

1461
01:15:37,000 --> 01:15:39,240
Speaker 1: top selling point for the establishment friendly portions of the

1462
01:15:39,320 --> 01:15:41,639
Speaker 1: dumb base will be about who can beat Donald Trump.

1463
01:15:42,080 --> 01:15:44,200
Speaker 1: That case has never been easier to make. Right now.

1464
01:15:44,280 --> 01:15:47,080
Speaker 1: Biden's approval ratings are at historic lows. Eighty percent of

1465
01:15:47,120 --> 01:15:49,160
Speaker 1: the country says we're on the wrong track. We tried

1466
01:15:49,200 --> 01:15:52,040
Speaker 1: the standard issue democratic approach several times and it just

1467
01:15:52,160 --> 01:15:55,040
Speaker 1: hasn't worked out that well. Hillary, of course lost outright.

1468
01:15:55,439 --> 01:15:59,160
Speaker 1: Biden barely scraped by thanks to a gigantic assist from

1469
01:15:59,200 --> 01:16:01,800
Speaker 1: Trump in his outrageously bad handling of COVID and his

1470
01:16:01,920 --> 01:16:05,559
Speaker 1: political malpractice in discouraging his own voters from voting by mail.

1471
01:16:06,160 --> 01:16:08,839
Speaker 1: Just think about it. If the Trump campaign had literally

1472
01:16:09,000 --> 01:16:11,800
Speaker 1: just leaned into vote by mail instead of disenfranchising a

1473
01:16:11,880 --> 01:16:15,240
Speaker 1: portion of their own voter pool, Trump would probably be

1474
01:16:15,360 --> 01:16:17,640
Speaker 1: in the White House right now. Very hard to see

1475
01:16:17,800 --> 01:16:20,280
Speaker 1: how a Biden, who is as banged up, unpopular and

1476
01:16:20,479 --> 01:16:23,200
Speaker 1: uncertain as he is right now defeats Trump or any

1477
01:16:23,280 --> 01:16:26,439
Speaker 1: other Republican. This case needs to be spelled out directly

1478
01:16:26,600 --> 01:16:29,400
Speaker 1: and will find a receptive audience as it's exactly the

1479
01:16:29,479 --> 01:16:32,679
Speaker 1: reason why these mainstream stream Dems like Maloney and Nadler

1480
01:16:32,960 --> 01:16:35,720
Speaker 1: are running as far away from Biden as possible right now,

1481
01:16:36,200 --> 01:16:38,280
Speaker 1: and the tone of critique should be more in sorrow

1482
01:16:38,439 --> 01:16:41,160
Speaker 1: than in anger. Many Democrats among the rank and file,

1483
01:16:41,200 --> 01:16:44,639
Speaker 1: they're not furious with are disgusted by Biden. They feel like, okay,

1484
01:16:44,920 --> 01:16:47,599
Speaker 1: you got Trump out, time to step aside. The tone

1485
01:16:47,640 --> 01:16:49,640
Speaker 1: on the case against Biden should be more bless his

1486
01:16:49,720 --> 01:16:52,439
Speaker 1: herd than guns blazing, and the campaign making the case

1487
01:16:52,520 --> 01:16:55,320
Speaker 1: needs to demonstrate operational competence, as Obama did in two

1488
01:16:55,360 --> 01:16:57,160
Speaker 1: thousand and eight, to prove that they are actually up

1489
01:16:57,200 --> 01:16:59,240
Speaker 1: to the task of governing, not just some pie in

1490
01:16:59,280 --> 01:17:01,200
Speaker 1: the sky you tope in dreamers looking to gather a

1491
01:17:01,280 --> 01:17:04,400
Speaker 1: handful of protest votes. Okay, so there's that piece next

1492
01:17:04,560 --> 01:17:07,400
Speaker 1: up the platform that could appeal to a broad swath

1493
01:17:07,439 --> 01:17:10,960
Speaker 1: of the Democratic Party, uniting disparate corners. It might seem

1494
01:17:11,080 --> 01:17:13,839
Speaker 1: like a real head scratcher, but it's actually pretty obvious.

1495
01:17:14,040 --> 01:17:16,400
Speaker 1: The model is Bernie twenty sixteen. He won the white

1496
01:17:16,439 --> 01:17:18,920
Speaker 1: working class any one young young lefties, and he did

1497
01:17:18,960 --> 01:17:22,559
Speaker 1: it by running a universalist campaign focused relentlessly on core

1498
01:17:22,640 --> 01:17:26,880
Speaker 1: economic issues without ignoring or dismissing civil rights. This model

1499
01:17:26,960 --> 01:17:29,559
Speaker 1: was also proven out by extensive research that was conducted

1500
01:17:29,600 --> 01:17:32,040
Speaker 1: by you goov and the Center for Working Class Politics

1501
01:17:32,080 --> 01:17:35,880
Speaker 1: in partnership with Jacobin Magazine. Their analysis of message testing

1502
01:17:35,960 --> 01:17:40,280
Speaker 1: in key swing states found that an ideologically diverse, cross

1503
01:17:40,400 --> 01:17:44,479
Speaker 1: class and racially diverse coalition could be won over by

1504
01:17:44,520 --> 01:17:48,120
Speaker 1: a populist economic message that did not surrender issues of

1505
01:17:48,160 --> 01:17:52,440
Speaker 1: social justice, but avoided what they describe as quote highly specialized,

1506
01:17:52,479 --> 01:17:57,280
Speaker 1: identity focused language. So verbally indict the elites who more

1507
01:17:57,320 --> 01:18:00,280
Speaker 1: than deserve it, rail against the millionaires and billionaire as

1508
01:18:00,320 --> 01:18:05,080
Speaker 1: Bernie did foreground a universalist platform on things like healthcare, wages, unions, housing, education,

1509
01:18:05,640 --> 01:18:08,880
Speaker 1: be relentless on the monopolists and the economic royalists, and

1510
01:18:09,080 --> 01:18:13,479
Speaker 1: swear off niche activist language like it's the plague. Listen,

1511
01:18:13,960 --> 01:18:16,720
Speaker 1: some section of activist lefty is Mike Grouse, But that

1512
01:18:16,800 --> 01:18:18,720
Speaker 1: will only give you more cred with the moderates and

1513
01:18:18,800 --> 01:18:21,360
Speaker 1: with the independence and ultimately, who are the left He's

1514
01:18:21,400 --> 01:18:23,719
Speaker 1: going to vote for? Vote for the father of modern

1515
01:18:23,800 --> 01:18:27,120
Speaker 1: mass incarceration, Joe Biden. If you're skeptical that the moderate

1516
01:18:27,160 --> 01:18:30,040
Speaker 1: Biden base can be won over just remember Biden Bernie

1517
01:18:30,120 --> 01:18:33,439
Speaker 1: voters had far more overlap than Bernie and Warren voters

1518
01:18:33,680 --> 01:18:36,600
Speaker 1: because Biden Bernie both share mainstream working class language and

1519
01:18:36,680 --> 01:18:40,439
Speaker 1: a messaging approach beer track versus Wine track. So as

1520
01:18:40,479 --> 01:18:42,960
Speaker 1: the moderate and the lefty portions of the Democratic base

1521
01:18:43,040 --> 01:18:45,400
Speaker 1: begin to revolt, it's not at all hard to imagine

1522
01:18:45,439 --> 01:18:48,280
Speaker 1: a campaign platform and approach that could unite them. It's

1523
01:18:48,360 --> 01:18:51,880
Speaker 1: anti woke plus economic populism, and that also tends to

1524
01:18:51,960 --> 01:18:54,439
Speaker 1: scramble people's political circuits a bit because of how silly

1525
01:18:54,479 --> 01:18:57,240
Speaker 1: the press is in talking about political ideologies. So the

1526
01:18:57,320 --> 01:19:00,240
Speaker 1: campaign won't code as moderate or as leftists because it

1527
01:19:00,280 --> 01:19:03,760
Speaker 1: doesn't quite fit the mold of what these people expect. Now,

1528
01:19:03,840 --> 01:19:06,280
Speaker 1: the final piece is kind of the most hard to define,

1529
01:19:06,520 --> 01:19:08,760
Speaker 1: but it's also, in my opinion, the most crucial and

1530
01:19:08,880 --> 01:19:12,560
Speaker 1: the biggest single failing of the Biden administration. A successful

1531
01:19:12,640 --> 01:19:17,599
Speaker 1: primary campaign against Biden will inspire. It will overcome the malaise,

1532
01:19:17,840 --> 01:19:20,920
Speaker 1: the gloom, the nihilism, the sense that nothing is possible

1533
01:19:20,960 --> 01:19:23,479
Speaker 1: and no change will ever come. It will swear off

1534
01:19:23,560 --> 01:19:25,559
Speaker 1: some of the snark and cynicism that has taken over

1535
01:19:25,640 --> 01:19:29,680
Speaker 1: political discourse for earnest optimism, even at the risk of

1536
01:19:29,720 --> 01:19:33,439
Speaker 1: a little bit of candidate personal vulnerability and also inevitable

1537
01:19:33,479 --> 01:19:36,400
Speaker 1: accusations of being a little bit cringe. It will remind

1538
01:19:36,439 --> 01:19:38,600
Speaker 1: Americans of how we came together in the past to

1539
01:19:38,680 --> 01:19:41,559
Speaker 1: recover from a great depression, to win a world war,

1540
01:19:41,880 --> 01:19:44,240
Speaker 1: and create a prosperous middle class. It will have a

1541
01:19:44,280 --> 01:19:46,840
Speaker 1: story to tell about what that looks like today, and

1542
01:19:46,920 --> 01:19:49,160
Speaker 1: that story will have it at center the heroism of

1543
01:19:49,520 --> 01:19:53,640
Speaker 1: ordinary Americans acting in solidarity instead of the trusts the

1544
01:19:53,720 --> 01:19:57,080
Speaker 1: experts model of anti populist elitism that is far too

1545
01:19:57,160 --> 01:20:00,120
Speaker 1: common today. In other words, the campaign will have at

1546
01:20:00,160 --> 01:20:03,080
Speaker 1: its core a belief in the ability of Americans to

1547
01:20:03,360 --> 01:20:07,600
Speaker 1: actually be active participants in a real democracy. Inspiration is

1548
01:20:07,640 --> 01:20:10,840
Speaker 1: the area where Biden has failed the hardest. Even his

1549
01:20:11,000 --> 01:20:15,120
Speaker 1: victories are piecemeal. They're haphazard, They're disconnected from any story

1550
01:20:15,479 --> 01:20:18,120
Speaker 1: or larger vision. It's not that the economy has turned

1551
01:20:18,120 --> 01:20:20,080
Speaker 1: to recessions said there's no plan to deal with it.

1552
01:20:20,320 --> 01:20:22,639
Speaker 1: It's not that the world is transitioning and chaotic. It's

1553
01:20:22,640 --> 01:20:24,519
Speaker 1: that we've got no idea how we're going to adapt

1554
01:20:24,600 --> 01:20:26,720
Speaker 1: and prepare ourselves. It's not that America is on the

1555
01:20:26,760 --> 01:20:29,080
Speaker 1: wrong track. It's that we've lost all confidence that we

1556
01:20:29,120 --> 01:20:31,120
Speaker 1: will ever get it back on the right track, or

1557
01:20:31,200 --> 01:20:33,760
Speaker 1: even what that would look like. The country needs to

1558
01:20:33,800 --> 01:20:36,559
Speaker 1: be enlisted in a national project that will put Americans

1559
01:20:36,600 --> 01:20:39,120
Speaker 1: back as the heroes of our own national story instead

1560
01:20:39,120 --> 01:20:41,800
Speaker 1: of desperately searching around for some white knight or authoritarian

1561
01:20:41,880 --> 01:20:44,400
Speaker 1: strong man to save us. That is the only way.

1562
01:20:44,720 --> 01:20:48,679
Speaker 1: So look this man, Joe Biden. He is eminently beatable.

1563
01:20:48,880 --> 01:20:51,320
Speaker 1: You can look at his terrible poll numbers. You can

1564
01:20:51,360 --> 01:20:53,200
Speaker 1: look at seventy five percent of done saying they want

1565
01:20:53,240 --> 01:20:56,600
Speaker 1: someone else, the growing abandonment even by elites, and you

1566
01:20:56,880 --> 01:21:00,160
Speaker 1: just can't conclude anything else. But the coalition has to

1567
01:21:00,240 --> 01:21:02,479
Speaker 1: be broad. It can't just be confined to the roughly

1568
01:21:02,560 --> 01:21:05,720
Speaker 1: thirty percent of self identified party progressives. And it has

1569
01:21:05,800 --> 01:21:09,880
Speaker 1: to offer something more than just beating Donald Trump, because,

1570
01:21:09,920 --> 01:21:12,599
Speaker 1: as we've seen, just getting Trump out of the White

1571
01:21:12,640 --> 01:21:15,639
Speaker 1: House has turned out to be a very hollow success.

1572
01:21:15,680 --> 01:21:20,360
Speaker 1: Indeed that guarantees absolutely nothing for a better future. I

1573
01:21:20,880 --> 01:21:24,320
Speaker 1: was stunned when I saw Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler,

1574
01:21:24,560 --> 01:21:27,280
Speaker 1: like Carolyn Maloney's like, I don't think he's gonna run,

1575
01:21:27,600 --> 01:21:30,360
Speaker 1: and Nadler is like, just won't say anything at all,

1576
01:21:30,600 --> 01:21:33,120
Speaker 1: that is, and if you want to hear my reaction

1577
01:21:33,320 --> 01:21:36,840
Speaker 1: to Crystal's monologue, become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints

1578
01:21:36,920 --> 01:21:41,840
Speaker 1: dot Com. Oh Sagers, I'm Max, Yeah, what are you

1579
01:21:41,880 --> 01:21:44,560
Speaker 1: looking at? Okay, it's been a tough year for me.

1580
01:21:44,800 --> 01:21:48,320
Speaker 1: I was wrong about inflation, Russia, doctor Oz, probably a

1581
01:21:48,360 --> 01:21:50,640
Speaker 1: lot more than my critics will catalog. As you all know,

1582
01:21:50,840 --> 01:21:53,160
Speaker 1: I'll happily eat cro should the time come. So it's

1583
01:21:53,200 --> 01:21:54,840
Speaker 1: time to do something to make myself feel better, and

1584
01:21:54,880 --> 01:21:56,680
Speaker 1: one of my absolute favorite things to do, according to

1585
01:21:56,720 --> 01:21:59,439
Speaker 1: people in my life, say the magic words. I told

1586
01:21:59,479 --> 01:22:01,800
Speaker 1: you so. We've spent a lot of time today talking

1587
01:22:01,800 --> 01:22:05,080
Speaker 1: about the results of the Kansas abortion referendum. After the

1588
01:22:05,160 --> 01:22:07,920
Speaker 1: Dobbs decision, a lot of pro life people in Washington

1589
01:22:08,040 --> 01:22:10,679
Speaker 1: talked a really big game. Their theory of the case

1590
01:22:10,840 --> 01:22:14,400
Speaker 1: was this, Yes, the repeal of Roe versus Weighed is unpopular,

1591
01:22:14,680 --> 01:22:17,360
Speaker 1: but voters in Texas never revolted against a six week

1592
01:22:17,400 --> 01:22:20,160
Speaker 1: ban earlier in the year. The economy is terrible, inflation

1593
01:22:20,320 --> 01:22:23,479
Speaker 1: is rampant, Biden can barely speak in general. Their theory

1594
01:22:23,640 --> 01:22:25,240
Speaker 1: was that, yes, while people said they don't agree with

1595
01:22:25,360 --> 01:22:27,640
Speaker 1: Row on paper, it wouldn't really matter because at the

1596
01:22:27,800 --> 01:22:29,360
Speaker 1: top of their it was not at the top of

1597
01:22:29,400 --> 01:22:31,760
Speaker 1: their preference. You could understand how they got there. It

1598
01:22:31,880 --> 01:22:34,680
Speaker 1: is a viable political opinion to hold, but it was

1599
01:22:34,760 --> 01:22:38,040
Speaker 1: also now clear that was cope to a massive degree.

1600
01:22:38,360 --> 01:22:40,559
Speaker 1: As I would often say in reply, a Texas six

1601
01:22:40,640 --> 01:22:42,679
Speaker 1: week ban is not the same as casting the abortion

1602
01:22:42,840 --> 01:22:45,160
Speaker 1: question to national politics in one fell swoop for the

1603
01:22:45,240 --> 01:22:48,000
Speaker 1: first time in forty years and the attendant media attention.

1604
01:22:48,280 --> 01:22:50,280
Speaker 1: Nor does a six week ban coming close to some

1605
01:22:50,400 --> 01:22:52,360
Speaker 1: of the rhetoric of the top Republicans in the country,

1606
01:22:52,640 --> 01:22:55,240
Speaker 1: including the former Vice President Mike Pence, who called for

1607
01:22:55,320 --> 01:22:58,880
Speaker 1: an outright ban on abortion minutes after the decision. Nor

1608
01:22:58,960 --> 01:23:02,200
Speaker 1: does it capture the energy galvanized by Clarence Thomas his

1609
01:23:02,360 --> 01:23:05,080
Speaker 1: concurrence on Roe versus Way that called into question the

1610
01:23:05,160 --> 01:23:08,880
Speaker 1: decisions on game, marriage and contraception. As I tried to emphasize,

1611
01:23:09,160 --> 01:23:12,080
Speaker 1: a national repeal is simply different. I was laughed at,

1612
01:23:12,280 --> 01:23:15,160
Speaker 1: called a number of names. Reality has a pleasant way though,

1613
01:23:15,240 --> 01:23:17,120
Speaker 1: of hitting people in the face, and that is what

1614
01:23:17,240 --> 01:23:20,320
Speaker 1: occurred in Kansas. As we've already spelled out, the results

1615
01:23:20,400 --> 01:23:23,360
Speaker 1: are sunning Kansas voters at a margin of fifty eight

1616
01:23:23,400 --> 01:23:26,360
Speaker 1: percent for keeping abortion in the state versus forty one

1617
01:23:26,439 --> 01:23:30,400
Speaker 1: percent voted overwhelmingly to protect a state Supreme Court decision

1618
01:23:30,600 --> 01:23:33,400
Speaker 1: which said that Kansas citizens had a right to an abortion.

1619
01:23:33,720 --> 01:23:36,920
Speaker 1: It is a fascinating result in its own right. More

1620
01:23:37,000 --> 01:23:39,479
Speaker 1: so is the fact that there is literally no way

1621
01:23:39,720 --> 01:23:42,040
Speaker 1: to spin this. As we have said, there was no

1622
01:23:42,160 --> 01:23:44,240
Speaker 1: major Democratic race on the ballot. This is not a

1623
01:23:44,280 --> 01:23:46,599
Speaker 1: purple state in any sense of the word. Trump won

1624
01:23:46,720 --> 01:23:49,560
Speaker 1: Kansas by a smaller margin this abortion referendum, and he

1625
01:23:49,640 --> 01:23:52,960
Speaker 1: beat Biden there by fifteen points. This is about as

1626
01:23:53,080 --> 01:23:56,439
Speaker 1: red as it gets. Furthermore, Kansas just set the record

1627
01:23:56,479 --> 01:23:58,760
Speaker 1: for the number of voters who came out in an

1628
01:23:58,840 --> 01:24:01,160
Speaker 1: off year, and not even on the day of the

1629
01:24:01,320 --> 01:24:04,840
Speaker 1: actual election. There were just primaries going on. So the

1630
01:24:05,000 --> 01:24:08,520
Speaker 1: facts are clear as day. Repealing Roe was an insanely

1631
01:24:08,680 --> 01:24:12,120
Speaker 1: popular move, even in a deep red state where voters

1632
01:24:12,240 --> 01:24:16,000
Speaker 1: affirmatively chose to come out and keep abortion available in

1633
01:24:16,120 --> 01:24:19,200
Speaker 1: their state. This vindicates the political theory I have put

1634
01:24:19,240 --> 01:24:22,400
Speaker 1: forward as the winning path forward for Republicans, which, yes,

1635
01:24:22,640 --> 01:24:24,479
Speaker 1: I know the name is cringe, but most of you

1636
01:24:24,520 --> 01:24:28,120
Speaker 1: will be familiar with at this point. Barstool conservatism Again

1637
01:24:28,360 --> 01:24:30,120
Speaker 1: For those who have not yet heard me or others

1638
01:24:30,200 --> 01:24:33,599
Speaker 1: described this thesis here, it is culture wars of today

1639
01:24:33,640 --> 01:24:36,280
Speaker 1: are winning grounds for the center right position that culture

1640
01:24:36,360 --> 01:24:40,280
Speaker 1: war has little today with abortion, gay marriage, or guns. Instead,

1641
01:24:40,360 --> 01:24:43,880
Speaker 1: it is a battle over political correctness, gender ideology, especially

1642
01:24:44,000 --> 01:24:48,679
Speaker 1: pushed on children, critical race theory, insane academic nomenclature for Hispanics.

1643
01:24:48,880 --> 01:24:52,599
Speaker 1: You get the ideal in a nutshell wokeism, a political

1644
01:24:52,680 --> 01:24:56,920
Speaker 1: orientation against being woke, and protecting a quasi libertarian ideal

1645
01:24:57,080 --> 01:24:59,040
Speaker 1: that people should just be left alone to do what

1646
01:24:59,160 --> 01:25:01,920
Speaker 1: they please. That's what tracks onto this. You can see

1647
01:25:02,200 --> 01:25:05,160
Speaker 1: how this worked out with the right coalescing around anti

1648
01:25:05,240 --> 01:25:08,280
Speaker 1: vax mandates and increasingly becoming aligned with a free speech

1649
01:25:08,360 --> 01:25:12,560
Speaker 1: movement on a national level, a national civic social libertarianism

1650
01:25:12,920 --> 01:25:16,439
Speaker 1: was increasingly becoming its organizing principle. And that is exactly

1651
01:25:16,520 --> 01:25:19,320
Speaker 1: what was so responsible for much of the political gain

1652
01:25:19,640 --> 01:25:23,080
Speaker 1: Florida in South Texas with Hispanic voters, with millions who

1653
01:25:23,160 --> 01:25:25,639
Speaker 1: joined the Trump coalition in twenty twenty as to screw

1654
01:25:25,760 --> 01:25:28,400
Speaker 1: you to people who wanted to govern their lives. That

1655
01:25:28,600 --> 01:25:31,080
Speaker 1: is how you explain how Dave Portnoy and Elon Musk

1656
01:25:31,280 --> 01:25:34,200
Speaker 1: became Republicans after the year of twenty twenty, but it

1657
01:25:34,320 --> 01:25:37,040
Speaker 1: was turned upside down when Roe versus Wade was repealed

1658
01:25:37,240 --> 01:25:40,360
Speaker 1: and put especially on the spotlight when Barstool founder Dave Portnoy,

1659
01:25:40,520 --> 01:25:42,800
Speaker 1: who has become a political bellweather in his own right,

1660
01:25:43,080 --> 01:25:46,360
Speaker 1: declared he would vote for Democrats based upon the decision.

1661
01:25:46,840 --> 01:25:49,800
Speaker 1: Many true conservatives said, good, ridden's Dave, You're not a

1662
01:25:49,880 --> 01:25:52,880
Speaker 1: real Republican anyways. But perhaps they may want to rethink

1663
01:25:52,920 --> 01:25:56,000
Speaker 1: that position given the fact that there were competitive GOP

1664
01:25:56,200 --> 01:25:59,640
Speaker 1: primaries in Kansas. Initial data out of the state indicates

1665
01:26:00,120 --> 01:26:05,000
Speaker 1: tens of thousands of Republicans both voted for Stop the

1666
01:26:05,120 --> 01:26:08,960
Speaker 1: Steel candidates and cast their vote to keep a right

1667
01:26:09,200 --> 01:26:11,639
Speaker 1: to have an abortion. Now tell me, if you only

1668
01:26:11,760 --> 01:26:13,960
Speaker 1: listen to the pundits in Washington who say that you

1669
01:26:14,040 --> 01:26:16,120
Speaker 1: can't be a Republican and not be pro life, how

1670
01:26:16,120 --> 01:26:18,800
Speaker 1: would you square that. What I love about this is

1671
01:26:18,880 --> 01:26:21,880
Speaker 1: it vindicates that people are not automatons. If they care

1672
01:26:21,920 --> 01:26:24,280
Speaker 1: about something and it goes against their party, they'll still

1673
01:26:24,360 --> 01:26:27,080
Speaker 1: vote for it. That is exactly what they did. In fact,

1674
01:26:27,200 --> 01:26:30,160
Speaker 1: the reasons that they did so only further vindicate the

1675
01:26:30,280 --> 01:26:34,600
Speaker 1: barsool conservative thesis. Conservative pundit Ben Dominic actually rights in

1676
01:26:34,680 --> 01:26:37,919
Speaker 1: the Spectator that the pro choice left one with Republican

1677
01:26:38,000 --> 01:26:41,479
Speaker 1: voters in Kansas, specifically because they embraced the language of

1678
01:26:41,600 --> 01:26:44,559
Speaker 1: freedom with the group who is pushing to preserve abortion,

1679
01:26:44,920 --> 01:26:49,720
Speaker 1: billing itself as quote Kansas for Constitutional Freedom. Just look

1680
01:26:49,760 --> 01:26:51,800
Speaker 1: at how the group messaged to voters in one of

1681
01:26:51,840 --> 01:26:56,560
Speaker 1: its major ad campaigns across the state. This confusing constitutional

1682
01:26:56,600 --> 01:26:59,920
Speaker 1: amendment is a slippery slope for Kansas. It gives government

1683
01:27:00,240 --> 01:27:04,160
Speaker 1: more power over your privacy and your personal medical decisions.

1684
01:27:04,680 --> 01:27:08,160
Speaker 1: Don't let politicians take away your freedom. Send a message

1685
01:27:08,439 --> 01:27:12,639
Speaker 1: vote no. As Ben himself, who is pro life rights quote,

1686
01:27:12,840 --> 01:27:16,040
Speaker 1: the pro abortion left, having set back by the Dobbs decision,

1687
01:27:16,400 --> 01:27:18,400
Speaker 1: was going to have to adopt a new playbook in

1688
01:27:18,479 --> 01:27:23,679
Speaker 1: red states. Their success in red Kansas means a softer, softer, gentler,

1689
01:27:23,960 --> 01:27:28,000
Speaker 1: anti mandate, pro freedom approach to abortion will be deployed

1690
01:27:28,080 --> 01:27:31,439
Speaker 1: in the upcoming ballots in states like Kentucky and Michigan.

1691
01:27:31,840 --> 01:27:35,920
Speaker 1: Anti mandate pro freedom. Why would those words resonate after

1692
01:27:36,040 --> 01:27:40,439
Speaker 1: two massive national fights over vaccines and guns. Republicans were

1693
01:27:40,520 --> 01:27:44,719
Speaker 1: clearly on that side. Again, it underscores my point social

1694
01:27:44,800 --> 01:27:50,479
Speaker 1: libertarianism not social conservatism is the organizing principle of the

1695
01:27:50,680 --> 01:27:55,280
Speaker 1: emerging GOP coalition. It's more about, Hey, don't tell me

1696
01:27:55,360 --> 01:27:57,800
Speaker 1: how to speak, don't push your bs onto my kids,

1697
01:27:58,080 --> 01:28:00,759
Speaker 1: don't take away my guns, and do whatever you please

1698
01:28:00,880 --> 01:28:03,240
Speaker 1: in the privacy of your house, but don't try to

1699
01:28:03,280 --> 01:28:05,960
Speaker 1: govern what happens. In mind. That is a reversal of

1700
01:28:06,040 --> 01:28:08,560
Speaker 1: the religious right, who in the mid two thousands. It

1701
01:28:08,760 --> 01:28:12,840
Speaker 1: underscores strongly the path to winning is simple. Whichever side

1702
01:28:13,200 --> 01:28:15,759
Speaker 1: is seeming to be protecting you from the crazy people

1703
01:28:15,920 --> 01:28:18,840
Speaker 1: who want to run your life, that side will win.

1704
01:28:19,360 --> 01:28:22,080
Speaker 1: For a time in American politics, that was the left,

1705
01:28:22,439 --> 01:28:25,160
Speaker 1: but the resurgent religious right will learn the hard way

1706
01:28:25,479 --> 01:28:28,400
Speaker 1: why they originally lost on the national stage in the

1707
01:28:28,439 --> 01:28:31,640
Speaker 1: first place. The right can learn this lesson and still win,

1708
01:28:32,160 --> 01:28:34,600
Speaker 1: or they can pretend it didn't happen and continue to

1709
01:28:34,640 --> 01:28:36,880
Speaker 1: defend the idea that a ten year old rape victim

1710
01:28:37,040 --> 01:28:39,280
Speaker 1: needing to carry a baby to term. We all know

1711
01:28:39,400 --> 01:28:41,280
Speaker 1: what they will choose to do, and so they will

1712
01:28:41,320 --> 01:28:44,040
Speaker 1: offset their chance to actually win popular vote election for

1713
01:28:44,160 --> 01:28:46,719
Speaker 1: at least the next several years. Now, I have personally

1714
01:28:46,760 --> 01:28:49,719
Speaker 1: resigned myself to the yo yo of American politics, despite

1715
01:28:49,720 --> 01:28:51,800
Speaker 1: how bad it is for the country because at least

1716
01:28:51,880 --> 01:28:53,920
Speaker 1: I get to say the words I told you so.

1717
01:28:54,439 --> 01:28:56,519
Speaker 1: So it's fun, Crystal. I mean, you know a lot

1718
01:28:56,520 --> 01:28:58,120
Speaker 1: of people. You can crow a lot of real pro

1719
01:28:58,240 --> 01:29:01,000
Speaker 1: lifers out there with their mouths shut about money, given

1720
01:29:01,120 --> 01:29:03,840
Speaker 1: there's plenty of money on their side. And if you

1721
01:29:03,880 --> 01:29:06,680
Speaker 1: want to hear my reaction to Sager's monologue, become a

1722
01:29:06,720 --> 01:29:14,880
Speaker 1: premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot com. All right, guys,

1723
01:29:14,920 --> 01:29:17,559
Speaker 1: we've got an old friend who has been far too

1724
01:29:17,720 --> 01:29:20,280
Speaker 1: long with our audience. We have missed Dan Marin's He

1725
01:29:20,360 --> 01:29:23,040
Speaker 1: is senior reporter for Huffposts has been on the ground

1726
01:29:23,080 --> 01:29:25,680
Speaker 1: in Michigan doing some fantastic reporting there. Great to see you, Dan,

1727
01:29:25,800 --> 01:29:29,960
Speaker 1: It's a man. Great to be here. So you dug

1728
01:29:30,200 --> 01:29:34,280
Speaker 1: in particular into this incumbent versus incumbent race. Let's go

1729
01:29:34,280 --> 01:29:36,599
Speaker 1: ahead and put your tear sheet up on the screen.

1730
01:29:37,360 --> 01:29:41,800
Speaker 1: This was Hailey Stevens in Michigan versus Congressman Andy Levin,

1731
01:29:42,080 --> 01:29:44,800
Speaker 1: and Levin was backed by Bernie Sanders. He was sort

1732
01:29:44,800 --> 01:29:47,439
Speaker 1: of the more lefty in the race. Hailey Stevens, the

1733
01:29:47,520 --> 01:29:50,040
Speaker 1: more sort of moderate or corporate, has had a lot

1734
01:29:50,040 --> 01:29:53,200
Speaker 1: of establishment backing behind her. But one of the things

1735
01:29:53,240 --> 01:29:57,600
Speaker 1: that happened here that we've seen routinely is that a

1736
01:29:57,840 --> 01:30:02,559
Speaker 1: PAC money came in very strongly for Stevens and ultimately

1737
01:30:02,960 --> 01:30:05,080
Speaker 1: helped her over the finish line, although you know, it

1738
01:30:05,160 --> 01:30:07,040
Speaker 1: was a healthy margin, so I'm not sure honestly that

1739
01:30:07,160 --> 01:30:10,640
Speaker 1: she needed their help. But what's particularly extraordinary about this

1740
01:30:10,960 --> 01:30:14,080
Speaker 1: is that Andy Levin himself is not only Jewish, but

1741
01:30:14,479 --> 01:30:18,840
Speaker 1: was sponsor of two state solution bill, and you know,

1742
01:30:19,200 --> 01:30:21,360
Speaker 1: so for them to go all in to defeat a

1743
01:30:21,520 --> 01:30:26,320
Speaker 1: progressive Jewish Democrat was really quite an extraordinary thing to watch. Yeah,

1744
01:30:26,360 --> 01:30:29,000
Speaker 1: the drama of this was kind of literary, and that's

1745
01:30:29,080 --> 01:30:31,320
Speaker 1: why I think it became the theme of so much

1746
01:30:31,439 --> 01:30:35,080
Speaker 1: national coverage. To zoom out. Obviously, we've seen APAK, the

1747
01:30:35,160 --> 01:30:40,000
Speaker 1: American Israel Public Affairs Committee, really escalate its involvement in

1748
01:30:40,120 --> 01:30:43,720
Speaker 1: elections the cycle, specifically in democratic primaries, and their goal,

1749
01:30:43,760 --> 01:30:46,160
Speaker 1: of course, is to beat back the kind of squad

1750
01:30:46,240 --> 01:30:50,599
Speaker 1: candidates that have made solidarity with Palestinians a core component

1751
01:30:50,680 --> 01:30:52,599
Speaker 1: of the progressive agenda in a way that it hadn't

1752
01:30:52,640 --> 01:30:55,599
Speaker 1: been in the past. So we've seen them spends already

1753
01:30:56,040 --> 01:30:59,280
Speaker 1: as of now, about twenty six million dollars launching their

1754
01:30:59,320 --> 01:31:01,840
Speaker 1: first super power. People didn't always realize that APEC didn't

1755
01:31:01,880 --> 01:31:05,120
Speaker 1: have a super pack. And then them taking on really

1756
01:31:05,520 --> 01:31:08,559
Speaker 1: not just the Jewish guy and Andy Levin, but sort

1757
01:31:08,600 --> 01:31:12,040
Speaker 1: of a member of Detroit area Jewish royalty. His father,

1758
01:31:12,280 --> 01:31:16,240
Speaker 1: Sandy Levin, was for I think thirty or forty years

1759
01:31:16,640 --> 01:31:20,040
Speaker 1: a congress been for the Detroit suburbs, a big labor guy,

1760
01:31:20,200 --> 01:31:22,080
Speaker 1: ended up i think being chair of the Ways and

1761
01:31:22,120 --> 01:31:24,599
Speaker 1: Means Committee toward the end of his career. And then,

1762
01:31:24,680 --> 01:31:28,360
Speaker 1: of course his uncle was Carl Levin, a senator from Michigan,

1763
01:31:28,400 --> 01:31:31,880
Speaker 1: I think the longest serving senator from Michigan ever. And

1764
01:31:32,160 --> 01:31:33,880
Speaker 1: so you have this guy who's sort of a fourth

1765
01:31:33,960 --> 01:31:39,360
Speaker 1: generation Detroit area resident. But what I found in talking

1766
01:31:39,400 --> 01:31:44,080
Speaker 1: to these APAC folks was especially including Jewish activists in

1767
01:31:44,320 --> 01:31:48,240
Speaker 1: these Detroit suburbs in his district, and the Detroit Jewish

1768
01:31:48,240 --> 01:31:52,400
Speaker 1: community is really centered in the upper middle class suburbs

1769
01:31:52,479 --> 01:31:57,280
Speaker 1: of Oakland County communities like Bloomfield Hills. Was that specifically

1770
01:31:57,360 --> 01:31:59,920
Speaker 1: because Andy Levin is Jewish, they saw him as a

1771
01:32:00,280 --> 01:32:04,719
Speaker 1: bigger threat because Andy Levin saying I'm Jewish, I'm a Zionist,

1772
01:32:04,840 --> 01:32:07,320
Speaker 1: I've spent time in Israel, but I identify as a

1773
01:32:07,400 --> 01:32:10,679
Speaker 1: progressive Zionist, and I think that the United States should

1774
01:32:11,160 --> 01:32:15,080
Speaker 1: exercise its power as Israel's ally to show some tough love,

1775
01:32:15,600 --> 01:32:19,560
Speaker 1: do things like restrict how USA can be used to

1776
01:32:19,840 --> 01:32:24,519
Speaker 1: end the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories. They felt that

1777
01:32:24,640 --> 01:32:28,200
Speaker 1: that sent a signal to non Jews that you can

1778
01:32:28,439 --> 01:32:31,080
Speaker 1: take these critical stances toward Israel and not be branded

1779
01:32:31,120 --> 01:32:33,800
Speaker 1: anti Semitic, And so ironically, I think that they saw

1780
01:32:33,880 --> 01:32:37,240
Speaker 1: him as a particular threat that very It's really interesting. So, okay,

1781
01:32:37,400 --> 01:32:41,400
Speaker 1: break down the results obviously lost by how much? Was

1782
01:32:41,439 --> 01:32:44,360
Speaker 1: the money the sole determining factor? I mean, she can't

1783
01:32:44,400 --> 01:32:46,519
Speaker 1: have run only on this, so what else was she

1784
01:32:46,640 --> 01:32:50,240
Speaker 1: beating back against him? Right? So it's very interesting. Anytime

1785
01:32:50,320 --> 01:32:52,840
Speaker 1: one of these outcomes occurs, you have APAC and other

1786
01:32:53,160 --> 01:32:56,280
Speaker 1: allied organizations basically saying, look, this is a sign that

1787
01:32:56,479 --> 01:33:01,800
Speaker 1: Democratic voters want a sort of pro Israel and a

1788
01:33:02,360 --> 01:33:06,120
Speaker 1: conditions free pro Israel candidate. But in fact, of course

1789
01:33:06,240 --> 01:33:09,200
Speaker 1: none of their advertisements focus on those things because it's

1790
01:33:09,240 --> 01:33:11,680
Speaker 1: only to a very small number of voters. When we

1791
01:33:11,800 --> 01:33:14,160
Speaker 1: look at the margin, the margin ended up being something

1792
01:33:14,240 --> 01:33:16,920
Speaker 1: like nineteen or twenty points. Some of the votes were

1793
01:33:16,960 --> 01:33:20,360
Speaker 1: coming in at the very last moment, so I think

1794
01:33:20,400 --> 01:33:23,519
Speaker 1: it's obvious that this outcome was overdetermined. There were a

1795
01:33:23,600 --> 01:33:26,519
Speaker 1: multitude of different factors, and there are certainly many people,

1796
01:33:27,400 --> 01:33:30,960
Speaker 1: particularly in Steven's corner, who feel that she would have

1797
01:33:31,040 --> 01:33:33,559
Speaker 1: won regardless. But if we do look at the money factor,

1798
01:33:33,680 --> 01:33:36,240
Speaker 1: she raised two million dollars more than him as of

1799
01:33:36,320 --> 01:33:39,400
Speaker 1: mid July directly through her campaign and the super pac

1800
01:33:39,479 --> 01:33:42,400
Speaker 1: gap not just pro Israel groups but also Emily's list

1801
01:33:42,760 --> 01:33:45,240
Speaker 1: ended up out spending Andy Levins super Pac something like

1802
01:33:45,360 --> 01:33:47,960
Speaker 1: five or six to one, So the money was a factor.

1803
01:33:48,080 --> 01:33:50,120
Speaker 1: One thing I did look at in my reporting is

1804
01:33:50,200 --> 01:33:55,320
Speaker 1: that overall this is a middle class and upper middle

1805
01:33:55,320 --> 01:33:59,960
Speaker 1: class district. It's something like sixty percent college educated. There

1806
01:34:00,080 --> 01:34:02,679
Speaker 1: are some working class suburbs. There's the city of Pontiac.

1807
01:34:03,040 --> 01:34:05,559
Speaker 1: She also did a very very good job reaching out

1808
01:34:05,600 --> 01:34:10,040
Speaker 1: to black voters in places like Pontiac, featuring Barack Obama

1809
01:34:10,439 --> 01:34:13,680
Speaker 1: in her tv AD's. The way one local Democrat put

1810
01:34:13,720 --> 01:34:16,200
Speaker 1: it to me is that this is an Obama Democrat

1811
01:34:16,320 --> 01:34:18,720
Speaker 1: kind of district rather than a Bernie Sanders or and

1812
01:34:18,800 --> 01:34:22,400
Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren one. And in conversations with voters, many of whom,

1813
01:34:22,760 --> 01:34:27,080
Speaker 1: frankly are in some of those towns and communities fiscally

1814
01:34:27,200 --> 01:34:30,519
Speaker 1: conservative and quote unquote socially liberal. That's a good fit

1815
01:34:30,920 --> 01:34:34,959
Speaker 1: Oakland County. I mean, as far back as twenty sixteen,

1816
01:34:35,920 --> 01:34:40,360
Speaker 1: major parts of this county were electing Republicans to Congress.

1817
01:34:40,720 --> 01:34:45,480
Speaker 1: These are this is kind of a Romney Republican Obama Democrat,

1818
01:34:46,280 --> 01:34:50,200
Speaker 1: Hillary Biden Democrat sort of district. Now there are communities

1819
01:34:50,240 --> 01:34:53,519
Speaker 1: there about twenty to thirty percent of the district and

1820
01:34:53,640 --> 01:34:55,720
Speaker 1: perhaps the larger share of the primary electorate that Levin

1821
01:34:55,760 --> 01:34:59,000
Speaker 1: had previously represented. His name still goes far and of

1822
01:34:59,080 --> 01:35:01,120
Speaker 1: course they're going to be preg anywhere. But I do

1823
01:35:01,280 --> 01:35:04,400
Speaker 1: think that that was a big factor. So were there

1824
01:35:05,040 --> 01:35:10,639
Speaker 1: specific issue positions, either economic or cultural issue positions outside

1825
01:35:10,680 --> 01:35:14,840
Speaker 1: of Israel that Stevens was criticizing Levin for that really

1826
01:35:14,880 --> 01:35:18,120
Speaker 1: seemed to land with voters, Like what were the dividing

1827
01:35:18,240 --> 01:35:21,200
Speaker 1: lines in this race? What was the debate largely focused on.

1828
01:35:22,080 --> 01:35:24,320
Speaker 1: It's a good question. I think that Levin was more

1829
01:35:24,400 --> 01:35:28,360
Speaker 1: interested in prosecuting a policy contrast case. He pointed out

1830
01:35:28,479 --> 01:35:31,400
Speaker 1: that she received corporate pac money. He had decided to

1831
01:35:31,439 --> 01:35:33,559
Speaker 1: renounce that this cycle that we had in the past.

1832
01:35:34,040 --> 01:35:36,439
Speaker 1: He tried to seize on the fact that she had

1833
01:35:36,479 --> 01:35:40,880
Speaker 1: these efforts within the Labor and Education Committee to undermine

1834
01:35:41,520 --> 01:35:45,320
Speaker 1: fifteen dollars minimum wage legislation in generally kind of casting

1835
01:35:45,400 --> 01:35:47,840
Speaker 1: her as a more business friendly candidate, and then also

1836
01:35:47,920 --> 01:35:50,240
Speaker 1: going after the APAC money by noting that Apak has

1837
01:35:50,320 --> 01:35:53,400
Speaker 1: endorsed Republicans who objected to the certification of the twenty

1838
01:35:53,479 --> 01:35:57,679
Speaker 1: twenty election, and that APAC Superpack received million dollar checks

1839
01:35:57,720 --> 01:36:01,719
Speaker 1: from two different Republican mega donors, Bernie Marcus and Paul Singer.

1840
01:36:02,200 --> 01:36:05,160
Speaker 1: But ultimately, I think that she was able to muddy

1841
01:36:05,160 --> 01:36:08,360
Speaker 1: the waters enough. I think that a lot of Democratic

1842
01:36:08,479 --> 01:36:12,280
Speaker 1: voters look at the big picture. She could say about

1843
01:36:12,280 --> 01:36:14,320
Speaker 1: the minimum wage, well, I ended up voting for it

1844
01:36:14,400 --> 01:36:16,559
Speaker 1: on the floor. I have one hundred percent voting score

1845
01:36:16,600 --> 01:36:21,320
Speaker 1: from the anfl CIO. She limited. She focused to resources

1846
01:36:21,360 --> 01:36:24,360
Speaker 1: on three television ads, one where she was appearing on

1847
01:36:24,439 --> 01:36:27,880
Speaker 1: the shop floor of a manufacturing plant talking about how

1848
01:36:28,000 --> 01:36:31,240
Speaker 1: she was chief of staff for Obama's Auto industry bailout

1849
01:36:31,640 --> 01:36:34,680
Speaker 1: Rescue task Force. Of course that was important. She had

1850
01:36:34,800 --> 01:36:37,439
Speaker 1: video of Obama praising her, and she also spoke about

1851
01:36:37,439 --> 01:36:41,000
Speaker 1: abortion rights speaking to that issue as a woman, and

1852
01:36:41,240 --> 01:36:45,640
Speaker 1: I think you know, big picture you look at, this

1853
01:36:45,800 --> 01:36:48,600
Speaker 1: is not somebody who is on the conservative fringe of

1854
01:36:48,640 --> 01:36:51,680
Speaker 1: the party either. This is not Henry Quaar, where you

1855
01:36:51,760 --> 01:36:54,080
Speaker 1: can point to anti abortion votes. You can point to

1856
01:36:54,120 --> 01:36:57,840
Speaker 1: anti labor votes that are really glaring and obvious. And

1857
01:36:57,960 --> 01:37:00,640
Speaker 1: so I think he was left kind of appealing to

1858
01:37:00,720 --> 01:37:05,960
Speaker 1: certain differences that a hardcore politics addict or progressive activist

1859
01:37:06,040 --> 01:37:07,479
Speaker 1: might be at tune too, but that were harder to

1860
01:37:07,520 --> 01:37:11,280
Speaker 1: translate to the broader public. Very interesting. And then lastly,

1861
01:37:11,360 --> 01:37:15,360
Speaker 1: you also followed this race between on the Republican side,

1862
01:37:15,760 --> 01:37:20,320
Speaker 1: Peter Meyer and Gibbs, who's now won the Republican nomination,

1863
01:37:20,560 --> 01:37:23,680
Speaker 1: although I mean the race was fairly narrow. So we

1864
01:37:23,800 --> 01:37:25,479
Speaker 1: talked about this earlier in the show, but just to

1865
01:37:25,560 --> 01:37:29,400
Speaker 1: refresh everybody's memory, Meyer is a Republican incumbent. He's one

1866
01:37:29,560 --> 01:37:33,639
Speaker 1: of the few who voted for Trump's impeachment following January sixth,

1867
01:37:34,000 --> 01:37:36,840
Speaker 1: and Democrats decided this was one of the races they

1868
01:37:36,920 --> 01:37:39,880
Speaker 1: decided to wade into on behalf of his far right

1869
01:37:39,920 --> 01:37:42,400
Speaker 1: opponent who ends up now being victorious. Could you just

1870
01:37:42,439 --> 01:37:44,720
Speaker 1: talk about what you found in that race? As well. Yeah,

1871
01:37:44,720 --> 01:37:47,400
Speaker 1: it's very interesting you mentioned the narrowness of the margin.

1872
01:37:47,439 --> 01:37:50,040
Speaker 1: I actually wasn't expecting that. I was sort of expecting Gibbs,

1873
01:37:50,080 --> 01:37:52,160
Speaker 1: the Trump back challenger, to walk away from it because

1874
01:37:52,160 --> 01:37:54,960
Speaker 1: he had released sort of internal polling data that suggests that,

1875
01:37:55,080 --> 01:37:58,400
Speaker 1: and there weren't a lot of other figures available about

1876
01:37:58,479 --> 01:38:03,000
Speaker 1: that race. But ultimately that Democratic money could have made

1877
01:38:03,080 --> 01:38:06,160
Speaker 1: some difference. But I will say that Peter Meyer outspent

1878
01:38:06,280 --> 01:38:09,559
Speaker 1: him vastly on the airwaves, and the Chamber of Commerce

1879
01:38:09,640 --> 01:38:11,760
Speaker 1: went to bat for him, the Americans for Prosperity, there

1880
01:38:11,760 --> 01:38:14,200
Speaker 1: were a lot of outside groups that were spending on

1881
01:38:14,320 --> 01:38:17,200
Speaker 1: his behalf. Peter Meyer, this is a guy who voted

1882
01:38:17,200 --> 01:38:20,599
Speaker 1: for impeachment and that he never seemed to be able

1883
01:38:20,640 --> 01:38:22,439
Speaker 1: to shake that. There are also a few other votes

1884
01:38:22,479 --> 01:38:25,000
Speaker 1: that his challenger, John Gibbs, could point to. He voted

1885
01:38:25,000 --> 01:38:28,800
Speaker 1: for the Democratic or the bipartisan gun control mental health bill.

1886
01:38:29,320 --> 01:38:34,240
Speaker 1: He ultimately voted to approve same codify same sex marriage,

1887
01:38:34,800 --> 01:38:38,120
Speaker 1: and they're a handful of other positions. He's talked about

1888
01:38:38,400 --> 01:38:41,640
Speaker 1: sending marijuana legalization back to the States. Also, there's just

1889
01:38:41,720 --> 01:38:45,439
Speaker 1: another sort of intangible I shouldn't say qualifactor if you will,

1890
01:38:45,479 --> 01:38:49,080
Speaker 1: which is that Peter Meyer is a really thoughtful, nuanced,

1891
01:38:49,680 --> 01:38:53,200
Speaker 1: even cerebral guy, and he's not a red meat guy.

1892
01:38:53,520 --> 01:38:56,799
Speaker 1: I mean, in his TV ads he tried to dabble

1893
01:38:56,920 --> 01:38:59,400
Speaker 1: in that a little bit. He said he was unafraid

1894
01:38:59,479 --> 01:39:02,479
Speaker 1: to take on Biden over the Afghanistan withdrawal, that he

1895
01:39:02,600 --> 01:39:05,800
Speaker 1: went to Afghanistan, that the ACLU sued him for being

1896
01:39:05,880 --> 01:39:08,879
Speaker 1: unwilling to host a drag show of people with Down syndrome.

1897
01:39:09,280 --> 01:39:12,240
Speaker 1: That's an interesting case from twenty nineteen. But he just

1898
01:39:12,360 --> 01:39:17,840
Speaker 1: doesn't come off sort of like a He doesn't he

1899
01:39:17,920 --> 01:39:20,400
Speaker 1: doesn't exude these sort of I think righteous anger that

1900
01:39:20,520 --> 01:39:24,719
Speaker 1: maybe some folks on the grassroots right wing base generally want.

1901
01:39:25,120 --> 01:39:28,320
Speaker 1: This is a district where, of course Michigan is a

1902
01:39:28,439 --> 01:39:31,679
Speaker 1: state where in open primary state he may have benefited

1903
01:39:31,680 --> 01:39:35,559
Speaker 1: from some Democrats and Independence crossing over for him towards

1904
01:39:35,560 --> 01:39:40,880
Speaker 1: the end there, but ultimately obviously Democrats. This is due

1905
01:39:40,880 --> 01:39:44,560
Speaker 1: to redistricting. There's a Biden plus nine district they like

1906
01:39:44,600 --> 01:39:49,080
Speaker 1: where they're at with Hillary Skulton also a Dutch American

1907
01:39:49,560 --> 01:39:53,280
Speaker 1: with their nominee, which is sort of ethnically an important

1908
01:39:53,479 --> 01:39:58,120
Speaker 1: group over there in West Michigan, and she's an immigration

1909
01:39:58,240 --> 01:40:01,759
Speaker 1: attorney and kind of actually kind of moderate our immigration

1910
01:40:01,840 --> 01:40:05,160
Speaker 1: though she quit the Trump dooj over their policies. They

1911
01:40:05,320 --> 01:40:07,719
Speaker 1: like where they're at obviously, that's why they backed Gibbs.

1912
01:40:07,800 --> 01:40:11,679
Speaker 1: But in a wavevier like this, I think even Biden

1913
01:40:11,760 --> 01:40:14,160
Speaker 1: plus nine districts are not safe. So it should be

1914
01:40:14,200 --> 01:40:16,800
Speaker 1: interesting to watch. That's a fair point, Yep, really gonna

1915
01:40:16,800 --> 01:40:19,320
Speaker 1: be interesting. Thanks for your analysis, Dan, appreciate to see you. Dan.

1916
01:40:20,760 --> 01:40:23,280
Speaker 1: Great to be here. Absolutely, thank you guys so much

1917
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Speaker 1: for watching. We really appreciate it was jam packed show.

1918
01:40:25,320 --> 01:40:26,600
Speaker 1: It was a fun show to do. I love it

1919
01:40:26,680 --> 01:40:28,840
Speaker 1: whenever there's a lot of stuff, especially when people vote,

1920
01:40:28,840 --> 01:40:30,599
Speaker 1: it's just the best. Yeah, the election results are always

1921
01:40:30,840 --> 01:40:33,080
Speaker 1: fund to way through. I love election results. Okay, thank

1922
01:40:33,120 --> 01:40:36,200
Speaker 1: you guys by your live show tickets if possible, if

1923
01:40:36,280 --> 01:40:38,960
Speaker 1: not premium members. Thank you all so much. We're negotiating

1924
01:40:39,000 --> 01:40:40,800
Speaker 1: some stuff right now which I think you guys are

1925
01:40:40,800 --> 01:40:43,600
Speaker 1: gonna be really excited about. And as Crystal reiterated, we

1926
01:40:43,720 --> 01:40:46,120
Speaker 1: are only able to do it because of all of you.

1927
01:40:46,360 --> 01:40:48,720
Speaker 1: We have the cash. We have the capital to both

1928
01:40:48,840 --> 01:40:50,880
Speaker 1: invest in our live show tour and make it really

1929
01:40:50,960 --> 01:40:54,080
Speaker 1: fun and exciting, and to be able to add some

1930
01:40:54,280 --> 01:40:56,800
Speaker 1: great assets to the Breaking Points community. I think you

1931
01:40:56,880 --> 01:40:59,479
Speaker 1: guys are really gonna enjoy it. So stay tuned over

1932
01:40:59,520 --> 01:41:02,439
Speaker 1: the next couple of weeks and months, and you're going

1933
01:41:02,479 --> 01:41:04,479
Speaker 1: to be excited about what you see. If you want

1934
01:41:04,520 --> 01:41:06,479
Speaker 1: to buy into our mission, we really appreciate it. Links

1935
01:41:06,520 --> 01:41:08,840
Speaker 1: down there description. We will see you all next week.

1936
01:41:09,000 --> 01:41:11,120
Speaker 1: Love y'all have a great weekend. See you back here

1937
01:41:11,160 --> 01:41:12,200
Speaker 1: for full show on Monday.