1 00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:03,280 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 2 00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:05,560 Speaker 1: your bets. It is me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia 3 00:00:05,680 --> 00:00:08,959 Speaker 1: and this is BP NFL. It's week fifteen. It's time 4 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:10,959 Speaker 1: to look at to the props with the Welsh and 5 00:00:11,039 --> 00:00:14,040 Speaker 1: the Andrew Erickson. They've got five props each lined up 6 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:16,720 Speaker 1: for you. We've got some touchdown calls. That contest has 7 00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:19,120 Speaker 1: gotten way too close. I don't like it at all. 8 00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:21,960 Speaker 1: And of course maybe we'll touch on a little bit. 9 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:24,959 Speaker 1: What was all last night? Thursday Night football? The Buccaneers, Welsh, 10 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 1: we the bleeding cannot be stopped. It's orange blood everywhere. 11 00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 1: The Buccaneers just keep losing games and Kirk Cousins, Kirk 12 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:34,519 Speaker 1: Cousins keeps carving him up on an annual basis. What 13 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:35,720 Speaker 1: is happening to the Bucks? 14 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:37,879 Speaker 2: I mean, how about stop a tight end? 15 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 3: Well, we thought was the most overrated tight end ever 16 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:44,160 Speaker 3: and then he just puts up the third best tight 17 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:46,840 Speaker 3: end performance I think since the year I was born. 18 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 3: It was wild to watch Kyle Pitts live up to 19 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:51,960 Speaker 3: all the expectations. 20 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:53,519 Speaker 2: And I think what's. 21 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 3: More brutal about it is this was the full completion 22 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 3: of this team. You know, what was the interview before. 23 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 3: They're like, Baker, how do you feel that you now 24 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 3: have all your pieces and everybody's healthy and everyone's there, 25 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 3: And He's like, I feel like losing, you know, like. 26 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:06,399 Speaker 2: That's what it essentially happened. 27 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:09,319 Speaker 3: It was pretty actually shocking, to be honest with you, 28 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:11,560 Speaker 3: for them to kind of drop it and not be 29 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 3: able to put all that together. But it wasn't you know, 30 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:15,640 Speaker 3: it wasn't just on Baker. The offense, even though Baker 31 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 3: seems way more stoic and confused at the offensive line 32 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:22,640 Speaker 3: point when any type of pressure is coming in the 33 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:23,839 Speaker 3: defense was just Cake. 34 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 2: It was. It was bad. It was depressing if you 35 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:28,400 Speaker 2: were a Bucks fan. I'm not so I'm not depressed, 36 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:29,399 Speaker 2: but it was rough. 37 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:32,040 Speaker 1: Andrew, we talk a lot about the Best Bets Show. 38 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:33,320 Speaker 1: If you miss it, you can go back and watch 39 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:36,399 Speaker 1: about some of these games that are very heavy favorites 40 00:01:36,440 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 1: this week, right, A lot of big giant underdogs, a 41 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 1: lot of one sided potential games. How does that affect 42 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 1: as you're you know, starting to work on analyzing props 43 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 1: because you know, one side of games sometimes can be 44 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 1: really difficult to kind of plug in the stuff that 45 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 1: you like, because you just don't know our team's going 46 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:53,160 Speaker 1: to shut things down in the third and fourth quarter 47 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 1: if they're up by a lot, or things going to 48 00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:56,680 Speaker 1: go sideways, and some of those games that we never 49 00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 1: saw coming. 50 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's always tough to handicap that and to consider that. 51 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 4: But again, sometimes it's just better to look at how 52 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 4: many points does this team imply to score. They're gonna 53 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 4: score a lot of points. Chances are that's good for 54 00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:10,800 Speaker 4: those offensive players. You bet the overs on those offensive players. 55 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 4: You bet the unders on the players that are getting 56 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 4: blown out. So again, you can always get beat by 57 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 4: garbage time. You can always get beat by a back 58 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:19,919 Speaker 4: door cover here and there. But ten those things tend 59 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 4: to regress over time and usually aren't the best bets 60 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 4: to make, unlike the ones that we're going to talk 61 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:25,359 Speaker 4: about here today. 62 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 1: All Right, you gotta get better than last week. Two 63 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 1: Welsh one in four ericson two and three ericson. You're 64 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:34,919 Speaker 1: just under five hundred Welsh still over five hundred four 65 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 1: of the year and a touchdown contest. Oh my god, 66 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 1: Welsh at twelve erics and I tied at thirteen. I 67 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:41,320 Speaker 1: didn't get any last week. I gotta get a bunch 68 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:41,639 Speaker 1: this week. 69 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:43,239 Speaker 2: I hit my almost four to one. 70 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:44,840 Speaker 3: So if we were doing ROW, I'd love to have 71 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 3: seen this as an ROI thing this next year, because 72 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:49,400 Speaker 3: that was a close to four to one tight end call. 73 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:50,760 Speaker 3: But that was about the only good thing I had 74 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:51,280 Speaker 3: last week. 75 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:53,600 Speaker 1: So next year we'll have that technology. All right, Welsh, 76 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:55,399 Speaker 1: why don't you kick us off here with the first 77 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 1: of our props for week fifteen. Obviously, the first one 78 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:01,639 Speaker 1: up here is for the New York Giants and Washington 79 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 1: Commander's contest, one that could have a surprisingly high total. 80 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 1: So let's talk about Terry mclaurin's output in that game. 81 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 3: So if you listened to any of the shows that 82 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 3: Ericson and I have done this week, Ericson and I 83 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:14,399 Speaker 3: do quite a few shows together. We're a team, and 84 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:17,280 Speaker 3: we would have given you a preview, specifically on the 85 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:19,800 Speaker 3: Extra Point podcast, which is on our discord over on 86 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:22,359 Speaker 3: Fantasy Pros. You would have got a little bit of 87 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 3: a tease of the few of the things that we 88 00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 3: really really liked. And I had talked about this one 89 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:27,679 Speaker 3: and I made it my first one of the week. 90 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:29,800 Speaker 3: It is Terry McLaurin. I'm all in on Terry mcluurin. 91 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 3: This week, we're going with the receiving yards sixty point five, 92 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 3: fourteen targets. Those fourteen targets they were not last week. 93 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:41,119 Speaker 3: Those were the Jayden Daniels targets and then he gets 94 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 3: hurt in the Mariota those are the targets. As Terry 95 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:47,640 Speaker 3: mclauin return back to game action with Marcus Mariota. Marcus 96 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:51,440 Speaker 3: Mariota targeting fourteen times. He got seven for ninety six 97 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 3: in that big game against the Denver Broncos. Phenomenal start, 98 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 3: even when he was just getting his legs fresh under him. 99 00:03:57,840 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 3: Now you've got Mariota as the starter of this week, 100 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 3: You've got a great matchup. Giants giving up the in 101 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 3: top ten in passing yards allowed overall on the season. 102 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 3: They defensively grade out according to PFF twenty eight of 103 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 3: thirty two against wide receivers. I think it's a prime 104 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 3: matchup where Mariota is throwing the ball a bunch more. 105 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:19,159 Speaker 3: Terry McLaurin is his target. As Ericson says, anything but 106 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 3: Deebo Samuel should be your fantasy output and in your 107 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 3: prop output, I think that equates to Terry McLaurin Terry 108 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:28,479 Speaker 3: McLaurin is also the big target, you know, the big 109 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:31,080 Speaker 3: play target guy. This is something with a really bad 110 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:34,479 Speaker 3: defensive matchup, or at least on their side bad defensively. 111 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 3: Terry McLaurin could get eighty percent of this on one catch, 112 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 3: and we know he's going to get targeted by Marcus Mariota. 113 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:42,600 Speaker 3: Run games also a little banged up. We'll see with 114 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:44,600 Speaker 3: the Chris Rodriguez stuff, but either way, and you can 115 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 3: run against the Giants. That's probably like the biggest negative 116 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:48,920 Speaker 3: you would have in this one. But I think that's 117 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:50,440 Speaker 3: going to set up play action and I think that's 118 00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:52,159 Speaker 3: going to set up Terry McLaurin to kind of eat 119 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 3: in this one. So sixty point five receiving yards give 120 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 3: me the over all. 121 00:04:56,120 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 1: Right, Andrew Erickson, looks like your first prop of the 122 00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:00,640 Speaker 1: week has a little bit of Joey Pam Lewins because 123 00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 1: this is one of my things for the Parlays show. 124 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 1: Let's talk about Drake may and his passing yard total 125 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:08,680 Speaker 1: in this huge game where the divisions on the line 126 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:09,599 Speaker 1: with the Buffalo Bills. 127 00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 4: Well, I loved this so much that I third on 128 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 4: the Prop show because I think that it deserves for 129 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:16,039 Speaker 4: everybody to be part of this, even if it's not 130 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:18,719 Speaker 4: part of your parlay. This should be a single player 131 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:20,760 Speaker 4: prop bet that you make Drake May over two hundred 132 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:24,160 Speaker 4: thirty and a half passing yards. It really is just 133 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 4: a number that you look at and think, this guy 134 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:28,479 Speaker 4: leads the NFL passing yards and this is what his 135 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 4: passing yards prop is set at. He's thrown for two 136 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 4: hundred and forty passing yards ten times this season. That's 137 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:37,160 Speaker 4: tied for the most of any quarterback this year. He's 138 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:39,720 Speaker 4: on a streak of six consecutive games that leads two 139 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:42,280 Speaker 4: hundred and forty passing yards, third longest active streak in 140 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:44,839 Speaker 4: the NFL this season. He's already thrown for two hundred 141 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:47,400 Speaker 4: and seventy three yards against the Bills this season back 142 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 4: in Week five, and at home. He's hit this number 143 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:52,839 Speaker 4: in all but one home game six out of seven, 144 00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:54,279 Speaker 4: and in three or four of the game to the 145 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 4: Patriots as underdogs this season. So, I mean, usually some 146 00:05:58,000 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 4: of these props you come on here, it's like these 147 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:03,839 Speaker 4: kind of vomit players with these really low props. They're like, oh, like, 148 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:06,160 Speaker 4: I think you can squeeze right over it. But this 149 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:07,800 Speaker 4: one to me is just like, oh, I can bet 150 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:10,720 Speaker 4: on a great player in a great game to hit 151 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:14,240 Speaker 4: a dramatically low number. So yeah, this one for me 152 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 4: is a layup easy, especially with the Bills that actually 153 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 4: put one of their Christian Benford was on the injury 154 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:21,840 Speaker 4: report added this week. He's probably their best defensive back. 155 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:23,359 Speaker 4: And if he doesn't go or he's less than one 156 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 4: hundred percent, you're just gonna see Drake may shred this 157 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 4: Bill secondary. So I give it you over it. 158 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a low number. I don't get it, like 159 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:32,280 Speaker 1: weather be damned again. People try to tell me last 160 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:33,920 Speaker 1: week about how everything was gonna be under because of 161 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 1: the weather. How'd that work out? How'd that work out? 162 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:39,080 Speaker 1: All right, let's go to Welsh's second selection here, and 163 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:42,560 Speaker 1: it's got to do with Rushi Rice now the the 164 00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs right now or in their 165 00:06:45,400 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 1: feelings and rightfully so, I mean they're a six win 166 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:49,200 Speaker 1: team on the outside of the bubble looking in another 167 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:50,840 Speaker 1: must win game. And I'm getting tired of saying of 168 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 1: Welsh on the must win game every single week for 169 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:56,160 Speaker 1: the Kansay Chiefs. So how can Rushie Rice's prop market 170 00:06:56,320 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 1: influence the Chiefs. That may be a positive way and 171 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 1: maybe our wallets as well. 172 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the Chiefs are definitely, you know, teetering 173 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 3: down right now. I wouldn't quite think that they're a 174 00:07:07,120 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 3: team that, you know, win that pressure is put on 175 00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 3: and when it's important that they're going to just buckle 176 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 3: and just pack it in, They're going to go as 177 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 3: hard as possible, and that means they need to be 178 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 3: more aggressive. I don't even know if that necessarily pushes 179 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 3: to this exact prop, but I think they got to 180 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 3: get the ball in the air more. But what we 181 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 3: did see last week when that must win, big pressure 182 00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 3: situation was drops. We saw a ton of drops, and 183 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 3: we need these guys to pick this back up this week. 184 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 3: I'm pretty heavy across multiple props on receptions and the 185 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:37,680 Speaker 3: reception guy. When we look across all the wide receivers 186 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 3: in this game, it is Rashi Rice. We're going to 187 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:43,680 Speaker 3: go to Rashi Rice plus seven catches or over six 188 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 3: and a half receptions and it's plus money this week. 189 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 3: Rice has hit this in two of his last three games. 190 00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 3: Found this really interesting over on PFF Rice. Against zone 191 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 3: heavy defenses, Rice is targeted at the third highest rate 192 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 3: among wide receivers in the end in zone coverage. The 193 00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 3: Chargers play the fourth highest rate of zone coverage in 194 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:07,400 Speaker 3: the NFL. So and what I think is going to 195 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:10,920 Speaker 3: be a past heavy situation, Rashee Rice should see a 196 00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 3: ton of receptions. Projections also like this. Most projections have 197 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 3: him at the seven plus markers. So you're getting plus 198 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 3: money on seven receptions for Rashi Rice. I know it's 199 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:23,800 Speaker 3: a weird situation with the Chiefs didn't hit it last week, 200 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:26,080 Speaker 3: had the drops. We're going to bounce back from that. 201 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:27,840 Speaker 3: Mahomes is going to target him a bunch and we're 202 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:30,040 Speaker 3: gonna get seven receptions plus money Rashi Rice. 203 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:32,959 Speaker 1: All right, plus money on Rushie Rice. Next one, we're 204 00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:34,960 Speaker 1: talking about a running back here in one of the 205 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 1: many potential blowout games. We've got the Jacksonville Jaguars and 206 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:40,199 Speaker 1: a beat up spot where the Jets are playing a 207 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 1: third string quarterback. Gross So Travis ATM let's talk about 208 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 1: his prop total. It's seventy two and a half rushing 209 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 1: yards Andrew it seems like a game where you're gonna 210 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:50,719 Speaker 1: have a lead if you are the Jags, and you're 211 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:52,080 Speaker 1: gonna be running out some clock late. 212 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 4: That's the way I hope it plays out because I'm 213 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:56,319 Speaker 4: taking the over on Travis Eaton and his rushing yards 214 00:08:56,320 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 4: at seventy two and a half rushing yards. That actually 215 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 4: hit this in four of his last six games played. 216 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,199 Speaker 4: He's kind of been on a low key heater. Usually 217 00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:05,200 Speaker 4: Travis Eten kind of falls off in the second half 218 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 4: of season. Not really been the case this year where 219 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 4: they've been really leaning on him, and he's been part 220 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 4: of the reason why the Jaguars have been on this 221 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:13,840 Speaker 4: hot streak over the last four to six weeks. So 222 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:17,800 Speaker 4: the Jets defensively ever since they traded Quentin Williams. I'm 223 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 4: saying this on a lot of shows, but just bunts 224 00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 4: against the run the New York Jets, So I like 225 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:26,720 Speaker 4: attacking their defense. You've just seen some running backs recently 226 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:29,679 Speaker 4: face them and just have absolute monster games. Eight Chan 227 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:31,599 Speaker 4: last week, he didn't play the full game, and he 228 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:33,360 Speaker 4: had a monster game in the first half against the 229 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 4: New York Jets. Nine running backs in the last seven 230 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:37,439 Speaker 4: games have hit at least sixty two rushing yards against 231 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:39,880 Speaker 4: the Jets. Seven hit sixty five or more. And like 232 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 4: I said, Etn has been going over the number pretty consistently, 233 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 4: and I do think they're going to continue to lean 234 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:46,079 Speaker 4: on him instead of bay Shell two, who had two 235 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 4: fumbles last week. And they even talked about the coaches 236 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:51,680 Speaker 4: this week about Etn Hey. When he gets going, he 237 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:54,480 Speaker 4: is our workhorse. He can really do a lot of damage. 238 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 4: So I like Etn here to go over at home, 239 00:09:56,920 --> 00:10:00,920 Speaker 4: big total positive game script against Brady Quick Brady Cook. Yeah, 240 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 4: give me the jag your RB all right. 241 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:05,240 Speaker 1: Before we get to the next prop on our list, 242 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 1: don't forget to support our sponsor, and that is hard 243 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 1: Rock Bet Sports Book. The holidays are here, and the 244 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:13,280 Speaker 1: sports schedule is jam packed, tighter than Santa's gift bag. 245 00:10:13,520 --> 00:10:15,800 Speaker 1: And Week fifteen football is on its way. We got 246 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 1: Bowl games coming to NBA college hoops hockey. 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Play terms and conditions apply. 271 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:25,079 Speaker 1: Concerned about gambling in Florida, call one eight three to 272 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 1: three play wise in Indiana if you are someone you 273 00:11:27,640 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 1: know as a gambling problem, lawts help called one eight 274 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 1: hundred and nine with it gambling problem called one hundred 275 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:36,160 Speaker 1: gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. 276 00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the next prop on the 277 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:41,960 Speaker 1: list for the boys here. Well, it's tough to know 278 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:45,160 Speaker 1: what we're gonna get from the Indianapolis Colts now that 279 00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:47,840 Speaker 1: Daniel Jones is out for the year. So how are 280 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 1: we going to take a look at Tyler Warren in 281 00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:51,720 Speaker 1: week fifteen? 282 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:55,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, this is the second of my series of plus 283 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:57,880 Speaker 3: money receptions that we're going with this week. And I 284 00:11:57,920 --> 00:11:59,959 Speaker 3: talked about this a lot on all of the show, 285 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 3: And you know, it's a risky endeavor because you have 286 00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 3: no idea what you're getting in with With Philip Rivers 287 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:09,200 Speaker 3: hasn't played in five years, he is familiar with the offense. 288 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 3: Are they gonna just lean on four hundred and twenty 289 00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 3: two carries from Jonathan Taylor? 290 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:16,079 Speaker 2: You don't know. But if Philip. 291 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:17,880 Speaker 3: Rivers is going to be in that game, there is 292 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 3: going to be some passing going on. And I don't 293 00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 3: think it's going to be big volume passing, and that's 294 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:24,080 Speaker 3: where I'm gonna lean on Tyler Warren. I think Tyler 295 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:26,760 Speaker 3: Warren will be his safety net, so on Warren himself. 296 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:29,680 Speaker 3: Warren has hit this six times this year five or 297 00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:33,439 Speaker 3: more receptions, including three of his last five rivers. When 298 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:35,480 Speaker 3: we look at him last we saw him, he was 299 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 3: a slight lean to throwing to tight ends. Before his retirement, 300 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:40,760 Speaker 3: he was a little bit above average on his target 301 00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:43,239 Speaker 3: rate to tight ends versus the league average. 302 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 2: So that's a positive in general. Then if you go 303 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 2: and look. 304 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 3: At the Seahawks, the Seahawks defense does a lot of things. Well, 305 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:52,640 Speaker 3: what it doesn't do is cover tight ends. They have 306 00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:54,840 Speaker 3: a defensive grade of thirty one out of thirty two 307 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 3: against tight ends so far this year. 308 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:59,079 Speaker 2: And going in to this is a. 309 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:02,800 Speaker 3: Stat I saw in God, I should have saved the 310 00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:04,679 Speaker 3: person who put this out. This is going into last 311 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 3: week's matchup, but essentially was saying that the Seahawks, ravaging 312 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:12,600 Speaker 3: almost seven targets per game around seven the most receptions 313 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 3: around just run seven receptions and allowing the third most 314 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 3: receiving yards of tight ends. So tight ends are a 315 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:23,839 Speaker 3: susceptible piece for the Seattle Seahawks, and that's going to 316 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:26,560 Speaker 3: be the safety net for this offense. Plus on top 317 00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:29,400 Speaker 3: of it. You know, this isn't necessarily this is more 318 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:31,080 Speaker 3: to something we'll talk about later, but I think Tyler 319 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 3: WARN's gonna be used in a lot of spots. But 320 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:34,480 Speaker 3: I think Philip Rivers is going to be looking for 321 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:36,800 Speaker 3: safety net stuff when they're trying to move the ball, 322 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 3: when the boxes are stacked on Jonathan Taylor first down runs, 323 00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:42,960 Speaker 3: which would probably happen, you know, every single play, then 324 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 3: they're going to be forced into throwing and it's going 325 00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:47,080 Speaker 3: to be short line stuff. And I think that's where 326 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 3: Tyler Warren is going to help a lot. Here, So 327 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 3: five receptions from plus one point thirty and that's a 328 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:56,400 Speaker 3: Philip Rivers esque number because we're terrified of him, I 329 00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 3: get it. I'm jumping on on a plus number five 330 00:13:59,080 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 3: receptions for Tyler. 331 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 1: All Right, Andrew Rickson, we're already discussed Travis ATM and 332 00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:06,439 Speaker 1: what that game might look like in garbage time, running 333 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:09,839 Speaker 1: out the clock. What about the Seattle Seahawks also potentially 334 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:11,400 Speaker 1: in that mode in week fifteen. 335 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that Seattle is gonna destroy the Golts. 336 00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 4: I mean, would he have been surprised if Daniel Jones 337 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:20,280 Speaker 4: went up to Seattle with this team and got destroyed 338 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 4: by the Seattle Seahawks. Like, No, So now that I 339 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 4: still have this forty four year old quarterback coming in, 340 00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:29,840 Speaker 4: I just I'm just not optimistic about this Colts offense. 341 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 4: So I like backing the blowout type of game strip 342 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 4: with the Seattle Seahawks, and that leads me to Kenneth 343 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:37,760 Speaker 4: Walker over fifty seven and a half rushing yards. The 344 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 4: Seahawks have been the run heaviest team this season, calling 345 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 4: run plays nearly fifty percent of their plays. Ken Walker 346 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:46,920 Speaker 4: has been much better at home than he's been on 347 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 4: the road. He's sixty plus rushing yards in three of 348 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 4: his last four home games. The last four running decks 349 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:53,800 Speaker 4: to face the Indianapolis Colts have given up sixty four 350 00:14:53,880 --> 00:14:56,680 Speaker 4: rushing yards or have had sixty four or more rushing yards. 351 00:14:56,880 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 4: Now there is a chance that the Colts do get 352 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 4: defensive tackled to forest buck back from injury preserve, but 353 00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 4: he's also missed a lot of time he was dealing 354 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:06,520 Speaker 4: with a neck nerve injury, So that's always kind of 355 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:09,400 Speaker 4: concerning about how effective he is going to be dealing 356 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 4: with the loss of strength with so much time miss. 357 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 4: So I'm just buying into the Seahawks laying the hammer 358 00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:19,120 Speaker 4: on Indianapolis Colts. I mean, Seattle has showed up big 359 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:21,240 Speaker 4: in these spots at home as heavy home favorites of 360 00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:23,520 Speaker 4: touchdowns are more than three to zero against the spread. 361 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:25,520 Speaker 4: They're also number one in the NFL in margin of 362 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 4: victory seventeen points. So if they're killing this team, I 363 00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 4: think Kennith Walker. Yes, maybe he's not even in the 364 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 4: game in the fourth quarter, but I think he's getting 365 00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:35,680 Speaker 4: get enough work and see enough explosive plays where he 366 00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 4: can get to at least sixty rushing yards and take 367 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 4: the over on ken Walker. 368 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 1: All right, make sure you take a look at the 369 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:46,200 Speaker 1: propa at Chichiet every single week because that's going to 370 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 1: give you all these props, the best lines, the projections too, 371 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:52,280 Speaker 1: So sink your sportsbooks are free. Download the Fantasy pros 372 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:54,680 Speaker 1: app and the Betting pros app. As you make your 373 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 1: run to glory in fantasy, make your run to glory 374 00:15:57,080 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 1: in the betting world too. There's only a couple of 375 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:01,240 Speaker 1: regular season weeks left here, or a fantasy didn't work 376 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 1: out for it's a perfect time. Start looking a little 377 00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 1: bit more towards the betting things, and the betting prop 378 00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:09,000 Speaker 1: cheat sheet is the tool that you all need right 379 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 1: now again, passing, rushing, receiving. All the stack categories are 380 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 1: there in the prop bet cheat sheet. Go to Betting 381 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:15,720 Speaker 1: pros dot com slash props, or just download the app 382 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 1: today and start betting smarter, not harder. Next up here, Welsh, 383 00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:22,640 Speaker 1: we know the Cincinnati Bengals do not farewell against tight ends, 384 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,360 Speaker 1: so let's talk a little about Isaiah Likely and what 385 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 1: he's likely to do in week fifteen. 386 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 3: This is the final of the series. This is our 387 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 3: third book in the plus reception series that we're going 388 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 3: to be running, and I am all about Isaiah Likely 389 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 3: over Mark Andrews Likely. 390 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:37,120 Speaker 1: A trilogy, Welsh. 391 00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 3: I gotta see yep this and hopefully this trilogy is 392 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 3: going to end better than many other trilogies. Isaiah Likely 393 00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 3: receptions four plus He's also plus money around plus one 394 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:51,360 Speaker 3: thirty is where you're seeing it. Bengals are the worst 395 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 3: against tight ends. We talked about Tyler Warren going up 396 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 3: against the Seahawks. There's a dicey situations. Zhawks aren't good, 397 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:58,520 Speaker 3: but the Bengals are the worst. They grade thirty two 398 00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:01,400 Speaker 3: to thirty two according to PFF. On average, they're giving 399 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:04,960 Speaker 3: up ten targets to tight ends, over seven receptions and. 400 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:07,160 Speaker 2: Over ninety receiving yards. 401 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:09,439 Speaker 3: So receiving yards might be a plus that you can 402 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:11,760 Speaker 3: play on this, but I like the receptions of this 403 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:14,040 Speaker 3: big plus money here trying to go out big towards 404 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:15,840 Speaker 3: the end of the year. Likely has been the top 405 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:18,360 Speaker 3: tight end option for the Ravens over the last couple 406 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:20,880 Speaker 3: of weeks, with twelve targets over the last two games, 407 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:23,800 Speaker 3: and he has hit this reception yard prop in both 408 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:25,960 Speaker 3: of those games. Plus it would have been even more 409 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:29,800 Speaker 3: had those touchdowns not been ruled out of his favor 410 00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:32,840 Speaker 3: or the one that just plopped out. I like Likely 411 00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 3: in this situation. He did this against the Bengals. He 412 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 3: hit this prop against the Bengals. I think he is 413 00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:41,199 Speaker 3: the big playmaker option here. His receiving yard prop is 414 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 3: also again low, It's relatively low. It's like in the thirties, 415 00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:47,000 Speaker 3: but for four receptions when he's been hitting this against 416 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:51,359 Speaker 3: the Bengals team that is cheeks against tight ends. I'm 417 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 3: all about Isaiah Likely on the receptions. 418 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:55,800 Speaker 1: All right, more likely stuff later in the show too. 419 00:17:55,880 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 1: Andrew ericson, let's do another tight end conversation here, Jue 420 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:03,080 Speaker 1: on Johnson. The numbers three and a half receptions for 421 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 1: the Saints tight end, we're going over or under undertaker. 422 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 4: We are going over. But I do have to make 423 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:10,720 Speaker 4: one point about Welsh's cheeks reference. You know who was 424 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:14,119 Speaker 4: on the injury report with a glute injury, Mark Andrews. 425 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 1: Who Mark Andrews right. 426 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:19,120 Speaker 4: The other Ravens tight eds. So it's all coming first 427 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:22,200 Speaker 4: full circle with buns, cheeks and glutes that we need. 428 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:26,120 Speaker 1: There is Jake, but Jake but nice, well done, well 429 00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:28,399 Speaker 1: done Welsh, well Kaseean Boody too. We can give Booty 430 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:31,080 Speaker 1: little parlay. It feels like a parlay somewhere in there. 431 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:32,360 Speaker 1: I don't know how we got to figure it out. 432 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:35,119 Speaker 4: I am going over with Juwan Johnson. This one just 433 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:36,320 Speaker 4: kind of stood out to me because I thought there 434 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:38,200 Speaker 4: was a lot of value on the number here, over 435 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:40,520 Speaker 4: three and a half receptions. He's had at least four 436 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:43,920 Speaker 4: catches in every single game he's played since Week seven 437 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:44,680 Speaker 4: except for one. 438 00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:45,520 Speaker 1: Last week. 439 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:48,360 Speaker 4: He even got to four receptions despite the Saints kind 440 00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:50,880 Speaker 4: of dialing back the passing attack because of the weather 441 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:53,480 Speaker 4: that was being played in Tampa Bay. In the first 442 00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:56,879 Speaker 4: matchup against Carolina, Johnson had four catches on four targets 443 00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 4: for ninety two yards and a touchdown. So his recepsions 444 00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:02,280 Speaker 4: prop has really been more around that four and a 445 00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:04,280 Speaker 4: half number. It's down to three and a half just 446 00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:05,960 Speaker 4: because I think that last week we didn't see a 447 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,200 Speaker 4: ton of passing volonging from the Saints. I don't expect 448 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:11,399 Speaker 4: that necessarily carry over in dome conditions here at home 449 00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 4: for the New Orleans Saints. So I would take the 450 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 4: over on Juwan Johnson three and a half receptions. He's 451 00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:17,040 Speaker 4: been hitting this at a pretty high rate. 452 00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:20,560 Speaker 1: All right, We've got one more prop to go for everybody, 453 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 1: and then the touchdown calls will be upon us. So Welsh, 454 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:25,840 Speaker 1: let's finish strong here with your forty nine. Or is 455 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:29,520 Speaker 1: Ricky Pierce all he still goes there? Does he still 456 00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:30,520 Speaker 1: go to San Francisco? 457 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:34,439 Speaker 2: You wouldn't know it. This is an all vibes play. 458 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:36,920 Speaker 3: So if you're looking for all the great data that's 459 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:39,320 Speaker 3: going to tell you why this is a lock and 460 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:42,760 Speaker 3: a smash. Sorry, this is me and ericson, Me and 461 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:45,320 Speaker 3: Erickson are all vibes about this the forty nine ers. 462 00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 2: I mean, since Ricky Pearsall has. 463 00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:49,600 Speaker 3: Come back, you wouldn't know that he's been back. He's 464 00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:51,919 Speaker 3: been an absolute ghost in that offense. He has not 465 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:54,439 Speaker 3: been used whatsoever. Forty nine has been trying to get 466 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:57,520 Speaker 3: their feet under them. One of the big changes here 467 00:19:57,680 --> 00:19:59,240 Speaker 3: is going into the bye week, and I think if 468 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 3: you're looking to know not only regroup, you're looking to 469 00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 3: retool what your offense is going to be coming out 470 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:05,600 Speaker 3: of the by I think one thing that is clear 471 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 3: to them is they've got to get Ricky Piersall involved 472 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,360 Speaker 3: back in the offense because prior to the injury, he's 473 00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:13,680 Speaker 3: hitting these props. This is a low number. We're looking 474 00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:17,719 Speaker 3: at thirty point five receiving yards when this was an 475 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:21,080 Speaker 3: absolute smash every week before he ends up getting hurt. 476 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:24,800 Speaker 3: So are there great numbers on targets and everything. There's 477 00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 3: not because he hasn't been getting them. But Erickson and 478 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,000 Speaker 3: I both believe he is going to get involved coming. 479 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 2: Out of this now. 480 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:33,159 Speaker 3: The other side of this is taking a look at 481 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:36,800 Speaker 3: the defensive matchup. This is a great defensive matchup. Eight 482 00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 3: of the fourteen weeks the Titans have given up thirty 483 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:43,880 Speaker 3: or more yards to two plus wide receivers gone up again. 484 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 3: So again this isn't like a huge, big crazy number 485 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:50,960 Speaker 3: Marcus Harris. Their best corner, you know, grades out pretty 486 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:53,120 Speaker 3: well but is likely going to be locked up against 487 00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:56,280 Speaker 3: Juwan Jennings other corner. You're looking at bottom half fifty 488 00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:59,640 Speaker 3: nine out of one eleven according to PFF and really 489 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,960 Speaker 3: really safety coverage grades which actually I like about a 490 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:04,760 Speaker 3: wide receiver that's going to come over the top, which 491 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 3: that is Ricky Piersol. Projections love this though every projection 492 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 3: place has got him over forty and really there's not 493 00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 3: a lot to go off of, but everybody thinks we're 494 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,200 Speaker 3: going to get him back in this offense. I believe 495 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:20,080 Speaker 3: coming off of the buye this is a clearcut thing 496 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:22,639 Speaker 3: that needs to be addressed, will be and it is 497 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 3: a really good matchup for that to happen. So super 498 00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:28,880 Speaker 3: low number Ricky Piersol thirty point five. If he doesn't 499 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:30,800 Speaker 3: hit it, he's dead to me and I'll be over. 500 00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:35,160 Speaker 3: But this is the gross sicko bet vibe bet. 501 00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:35,399 Speaker 2: Of the week. 502 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,280 Speaker 1: Those vibes really come and go quickly around here. I 503 00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:41,160 Speaker 1: guess gott to say, wellh we hope for Ricky Piersoll's sake, 504 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:46,160 Speaker 1: things go all right, all right, Next up here, Kyle Mnnngui. Look, Andrew, 505 00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:48,040 Speaker 1: there's another one that we've discussed on some other shows, 506 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,439 Speaker 1: you and I together. We're both in Almanagai this week. 507 00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,760 Speaker 1: The Carrie number is twelve and a half and I 508 00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:55,720 Speaker 1: think the Undertaker is going to take the over. I 509 00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:57,080 Speaker 1: got a feeling of it already. Bet this. 510 00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:58,800 Speaker 3: I just want to point out before actually even says 511 00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:00,320 Speaker 3: it me and actually talked about. This is the first 512 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 3: thing I bet this week, if anything. 513 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:04,440 Speaker 1: Save the bus for last. Let's go in because it's 514 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:04,960 Speaker 1: gonna smash. 515 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:07,320 Speaker 4: And I think it took fifteen weeks, but I have 516 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 4: a full card of all overs. All my player props 517 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:13,960 Speaker 4: are over. Yeah, that's right, you do look at this 518 00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:16,600 Speaker 4: is not like an intention like I went out and 519 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:18,240 Speaker 4: be like I gotta do all the overs. I actually 520 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:19,960 Speaker 4: liked a lot of unders in terms of the game 521 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:21,840 Speaker 4: totals this week. So go check out the Best Bet 522 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 4: show with myself and Joe. But yeah, this week, I'm 523 00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:25,879 Speaker 4: doing all overs on a player props and this is 524 00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,240 Speaker 4: my favorite one on the card. Kaya Mnung guy going 525 00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:32,399 Speaker 4: over twelve and a half carries. It's December at Soldier Field. 526 00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:34,920 Speaker 4: You have a bowling ball running back in Kyle manong 527 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:37,600 Speaker 4: Guy against a Browns defense. It just got boat raced 528 00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 4: by Tony Pollard, someone that was left for dead on 529 00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:43,560 Speaker 4: every fantasy football bench, and he went off against this 530 00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:45,920 Speaker 4: Browns defense. What do you think Ben Johnson's gonna do 531 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:48,199 Speaker 4: when he reviews the table, thinks, yeah, I think I 532 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:51,119 Speaker 4: could probably run effectively on this Browns defense, especially with 533 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,680 Speaker 4: them on the road. Malik Collins defensive tackle, he didn't 534 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 4: play last week. Mason Graham their other defensive tackle. He's 535 00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:59,200 Speaker 4: banged up with the rib injury. He hasn't been practicing. 536 00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:01,360 Speaker 4: So I think the run wild here. And the guy 537 00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:04,560 Speaker 4: that they feature in feed is rookie Rutgers running back 538 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 4: Kyle Manongai. Based on how physical he is. No one's 539 00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,040 Speaker 4: gonna want to tackle this guy when it's zero degree 540 00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:13,239 Speaker 4: temperatures out, especially the Browns defense on the road. So 541 00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:15,840 Speaker 4: give me manong Guy over twelve and a half carries again. 542 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,360 Speaker 4: Last four weeks, he's been averaging fifteen carries per game. 543 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:21,560 Speaker 4: That's the same as DeAndre Swift. He actually has fourteen 544 00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:23,960 Speaker 4: or more in three of his last four games played 545 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 4: twelve plus carries in four straight games overall, so I 546 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,000 Speaker 4: think twelve is like the minimum for me. It wouldn't 547 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 4: surprise you if he gets up to twenty carries in 548 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,680 Speaker 4: this game. Has a monster performance. So give me Kyle 549 00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:37,360 Speaker 4: Mamanong Guy, the rookie running back to smash the Browns 550 00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:37,960 Speaker 4: this week. 551 00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:41,280 Speaker 1: I like it. I'm in on it. Got mann Guy 552 00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,240 Speaker 1: shares too that I drafted that I've been playing the 553 00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:46,240 Speaker 1: last couple of weeks. Been very happy overall with all 554 00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,440 Speaker 1: of those shares. All right, let's get to the touchdown calls, 555 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:51,240 Speaker 1: and remember the touchdown score report is also available on 556 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:53,600 Speaker 1: Betting Pros. All you have to do is head over 557 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:55,719 Speaker 1: to betting pros dot com slash touchdown to to view 558 00:23:55,760 --> 00:24:00,120 Speaker 1: the very latest in touchdown prop analysis. Again, the touchdown stats, 559 00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:02,720 Speaker 1: the props to bet the odds, everything is there versus 560 00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 1: the projections to help identify the very best at anytime 561 00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:08,320 Speaker 1: touchdown bets only at bettingcrows dot com slash touchdown. I'm 562 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,280 Speaker 1: going with two here today. I was gonna go and 563 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,720 Speaker 1: be fancy with the uh the two tight ends, but 564 00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:17,000 Speaker 1: the Mark Andrews injury popped up yesterday and now I'm 565 00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,800 Speaker 1: not feeling as good about the double tight end touchdown call. 566 00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:21,800 Speaker 1: So I'm just gonna stick with Isaiah likely plus two 567 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,320 Speaker 1: thirty and then I'm gonna go with tenor Roa McMillan 568 00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:26,600 Speaker 1: in a game against the New Orleans Saints at plus 569 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:28,880 Speaker 1: one fifty five. So those are pretty good numbers there. 570 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:30,280 Speaker 1: I think I can go two for two this week, 571 00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:33,080 Speaker 1: and I need to. I need to stop crap into 572 00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:34,679 Speaker 1: bed here. I need to get forward here on this 573 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,040 Speaker 1: touchdown call. Contest got way too close here. I had 574 00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:40,000 Speaker 1: a nice lead, and that is disintegrated. Man. I feel 575 00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:43,560 Speaker 1: like I feel like the Indianapolis Colts when we get 576 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:46,320 Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Well, shout about you where you're 577 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,000 Speaker 1: going for your touchdown calls in week fifteen. 578 00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:50,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's disintegrated by the way, Like Erickson is tied 579 00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:52,920 Speaker 3: with you and I was I was far I'm one 580 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 3: behind both of you and I was way far away. 581 00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:56,760 Speaker 2: I know I've got up good drama. 582 00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:58,080 Speaker 1: It's good ratings for TV. 583 00:24:58,000 --> 00:24:58,840 Speaker 2: So it is pretty good. 584 00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,359 Speaker 3: Well kind of in with that, I don't think I've 585 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:06,520 Speaker 3: taken a single like minus touchdown bet this entire season. 586 00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:08,879 Speaker 3: I am going to this week, but it's especially minus 587 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:10,960 Speaker 3: one O five minus won ten in any spot, and 588 00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:13,119 Speaker 3: I'm going to serve with Trevion Henderson just kind of 589 00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:15,479 Speaker 3: looking through the cart. I think it's some solid like 590 00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:17,879 Speaker 3: you know, plus one forty one to fifty bets. But 591 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,480 Speaker 3: I just kept staring at Traveon Henderson and I couldn't 592 00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:22,280 Speaker 3: get away from it. Bills ranked thirty one to thirty 593 00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:26,120 Speaker 3: two defensive grade against running backs, specifically this acording PFF 594 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:28,320 Speaker 3: twenty four of thirty two in yards after contact. They 595 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:30,439 Speaker 3: rank thirty one of thirty two and miss tackles and 596 00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:33,520 Speaker 3: twenty four of thirty two on their overall defensive front. Oh, 597 00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,359 Speaker 3: by the way, the Bills have given up sixteen rushing 598 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,000 Speaker 3: touchdowns this year to running backs and at least one 599 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:44,200 Speaker 3: rushing touchdown in all but two games. Trevion Henderson book 600 00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 3: it and then my big play that one's gonna hate it. 601 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:49,399 Speaker 2: It's gonna be gross. It's Tyler Warren. Now here's it. 602 00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:50,840 Speaker 2: Now here's part of it. 603 00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,360 Speaker 3: Though, and what I said before, because it didn't really 604 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:56,680 Speaker 3: account to the receptions. Not only take everything I said 605 00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,479 Speaker 3: with Tyler Warren as far as like receptions go, and 606 00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:03,879 Speaker 3: see how grading out horrifically five touchdowns they've given up 607 00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:06,639 Speaker 3: to tight ends. But also we should be looking at 608 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:09,720 Speaker 3: Tyler Warren being used in some other spots. Guy can 609 00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:11,399 Speaker 3: be a running back guy. I mean, the quarterback thing 610 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:13,040 Speaker 3: is not going to help me if he throws a touchdown, 611 00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 3: But don't be surprised if there's any tush push type 612 00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,280 Speaker 3: of situation and he runs out. You're not gonna philip 613 00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:21,119 Speaker 3: rivers do that. If they do those little inder round things, 614 00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:22,920 Speaker 3: like Tyler Warren is going to be used in other 615 00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:26,159 Speaker 3: spots where they need to get creative with a sixty 616 00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,199 Speaker 3: seven year old quarterback behind center. So I really like 617 00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:32,879 Speaker 3: Tyler Warren on the ROI because the number is like 618 00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:36,880 Speaker 3: plus three point fifty, so that is super super low 619 00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 3: against a team that is bad against tight ends and 620 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,760 Speaker 3: a tight end that get used another spot. So I'm 621 00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,800 Speaker 3: very much in on a Tyler Warren touchdown. 622 00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:47,520 Speaker 1: All right. Ericson Europe give us two tuddies for week fifteen. 623 00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 4: Already talked about my love for common on. Guy gonna 624 00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:52,160 Speaker 4: see a lot of carries, a lot of rushing yards, 625 00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:54,080 Speaker 4: and I think he's also going to find Peydrt just because 626 00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,560 Speaker 4: he's really been the guy they've focused mostly in the 627 00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:58,560 Speaker 4: red zone. He actually had a two point conversion last 628 00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:01,280 Speaker 4: week where the offensive line just like will their way 629 00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:02,919 Speaker 4: to push him into the end zone. I think they 630 00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:05,240 Speaker 4: can see that again here with the Bears playing at home. 631 00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:07,560 Speaker 4: So I like Manungai, especially at the odds at plus 632 00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:10,520 Speaker 4: one thirty. Again, it's kind of a process play with me. 633 00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:13,920 Speaker 4: Take home teams the lead running back in the red 634 00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:16,800 Speaker 4: zone and bet them to score touchdowns because that's a 635 00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,520 Speaker 4: most likely outcome going to happen. So Manunguy plus one thirty. 636 00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,400 Speaker 4: And then the same thing with Zach Sharbone. I get 637 00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:24,760 Speaker 4: that he's super frustrating fantasy because he just scores a 638 00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:26,680 Speaker 4: bunch of touchdowns and Ken Walker gets all the yards. 639 00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:27,440 Speaker 2: But it doesn't matter. 640 00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,119 Speaker 4: Jack Sharboney has scored in every single home game the 641 00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:33,080 Speaker 4: Seahawks have played this year, minus one l five. Like, 642 00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:35,479 Speaker 4: I get that it's not like the sexiest odds. But 643 00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:38,000 Speaker 4: if he scores, just like with with Welsh's pick, if 644 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 4: Henderson scores, who cares, Like minus one of five is fine, Like, 645 00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:43,600 Speaker 4: and that's making money. You can't make money go you 646 00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:45,760 Speaker 4: can't be You're not gonna go broke, being right, So 647 00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:48,440 Speaker 4: I like the Zach Sharbonney call because I think he's 648 00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:50,119 Speaker 4: just he's gonna score, So minus one oh five, I 649 00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:52,520 Speaker 4: think that's good odds. Also Joe too, I think the 650 00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:56,880 Speaker 4: likely odds at plus two thirty, Like, yeah, that's that's 651 00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:57,760 Speaker 4: kind of like insane. 652 00:27:58,080 --> 00:27:59,760 Speaker 2: Just that long, Joe made the sheet. 653 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,040 Speaker 3: Joe made the sheet and then just dropped his touchdowns 654 00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,200 Speaker 3: and didn't allow I was one hundred percent going likely 655 00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:05,880 Speaker 3: in Warren this week. 656 00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,280 Speaker 1: Those are my touchdowns, so likely And if he scores, 657 00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:10,520 Speaker 1: you're just gonna you know, just keep pace with me now. 658 00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:12,760 Speaker 2: I want to. I want you to be the bottom 659 00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:14,160 Speaker 2: of this list on touchdowns more. 660 00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:18,600 Speaker 1: Than that might be who isaia likely? Holding touchdowns is 661 00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:23,280 Speaker 1: the problem catching them completing. They're completing and finishing the touchdown. 662 00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:24,080 Speaker 1: That's where the strug. 663 00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:26,560 Speaker 3: He's kind of like, there's kind of like a there's 664 00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:29,639 Speaker 3: a path going. He catches one and then drops it 665 00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:31,960 Speaker 3: right before the end zone. Then he catches one, gets 666 00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:34,120 Speaker 3: three feet down, but it's not quite there. Like the 667 00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:37,600 Speaker 3: only path next is to have a full completion, hold it, 668 00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:39,880 Speaker 3: fall on the ball, and actually get a touchdown. 669 00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:41,840 Speaker 2: It's the perfect ending to his story. 670 00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:45,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, let's hope the Cincinnati Bengals just continue to give 671 00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:46,800 Speaker 1: up points to tight end. So I'm just hoping, I 672 00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:50,080 Speaker 1: say likely, if he's going to take advantage of that somewhere, 673 00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 1: it's going to be against the Cincinnati Bengals. But we'll 674 00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:54,360 Speaker 1: see you in the meantime. You can follow us over 675 00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:56,280 Speaker 1: on Betting Pros all of us. Just download the app 676 00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:57,760 Speaker 1: and search for our names. You can follow and see 677 00:28:57,760 --> 00:28:59,600 Speaker 1: what we're in on this week in the NFL. And 678 00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:01,560 Speaker 1: that'll do for us, But the story of the game 679 00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:04,400 Speaker 1: goes on for the Welsh and the overtaker. I'm Joey p. 680 00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:06,080 Speaker 1: We'll see you next time. Kids. 681 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,040 Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you 682 00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:11,480 Speaker 5: love the show, the best freeway to support us is 683 00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:14,880 Speaker 5: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 684 00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:17,800 Speaker 5: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros, and 685 00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:21,560 Speaker 5: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube 686 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:24,080 Speaker 5: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.