WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2020 NFL MegaPod Week 5 Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:12.680 Check it on Man No Down Man Thursday morning, October eight, 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:18.640 being the Book podcast BEGA Pod Live from the day 0:00:18.920 --> 0:00:21.680 our home here in the early part of the football season. 0:00:21.840 --> 0:00:24.960 Hopefully there will be a football season once Circule opens. 0:00:25.000 --> 0:00:27.160 I think there will be. But uh, we'll see what 0:00:27.240 --> 0:00:30.200 kind of football season has covid reeks havoc in the 0:00:30.320 --> 0:00:35.080 NFL twenty three Tennessee Titans players in personnel positive. We'll 0:00:35.080 --> 0:00:37.519 see what happens with the Buffalo Tennessee game this weekend. 0:00:38.200 --> 0:00:40.599 Um and uh and if they do something with that 0:00:41.600 --> 0:00:46.720 forfeit cancelation post poeman, if they postpone it, they'll have 0:00:46.720 --> 0:00:49.400 to postpone the Buffalo Thursday night game next week against Casey. 0:00:49.600 --> 0:00:52.560 All kinds of ramifications as always on the show. Here 0:00:52.600 --> 0:00:57.720 with me the vice president of operations at Circus Sports, Mikey, 0:00:57.920 --> 0:01:01.080 Mike Palm, how you doing. Welcome. It's honor, uh to 0:01:01.160 --> 0:01:03.720 be back with you and Todd and today's esteem guests. 0:01:04.080 --> 0:01:06.399 Very exciting. Thank you. Todd wishnev up on the board 0:01:06.400 --> 0:01:10.040 from Pittsburgh, p A in his mother's attic. What is that? 0:01:10.319 --> 0:01:13.280 What is that place? How would you call that? Yeah, 0:01:13.319 --> 0:01:16.200 that's it's the third floor. It's it's a beautiful man, Cave. 0:01:16.240 --> 0:01:18.840 I got the everything set up over here, baby. All right, 0:01:19.120 --> 0:01:21.360 all right, I'm glad to have you, Toddy, thank you 0:01:21.360 --> 0:01:22.959 you were coming back here? Are you kind of stuck 0:01:23.040 --> 0:01:25.280 up there? I would I would love to come back, 0:01:25.319 --> 0:01:27.920 but you know, due to the fact that my finance 0:01:28.000 --> 0:01:31.240 job got killed by COVID, I need to get a 0:01:31.319 --> 0:01:34.160 job in Las Vegas in order to come back to 0:01:34.240 --> 0:01:36.560 Las Vegas. So any of those listeners out there want 0:01:36.600 --> 0:01:39.880 to hire somebody with financial background, Uh, I'd be happy 0:01:39.880 --> 0:01:41.880 to listen, but I don't want to work too hard. 0:01:42.000 --> 0:01:43.759 Maybe four hours a day. I gotta get my tennis 0:01:43.800 --> 0:01:47.280 in with Gilly Ice. Well, who could resist that pitch? Uh? 0:01:47.480 --> 0:01:50.280 The esteem guest that Mike Palm was talking about UH 0:01:50.360 --> 0:01:52.400 is with me each and every Thursday morning, and I 0:01:52.440 --> 0:01:54.200 am privileged to have him and honored to have him 0:01:54.520 --> 0:01:56.800 every Thursday morning on a numbers game at Visa and 0:01:56.880 --> 0:01:59.080 the sports betting network Serious x M two oh four, 0:01:59.360 --> 0:02:02.560 and he is on the podcast. I want to say, Bill, 0:02:02.640 --> 0:02:06.800 for the first time, since you're quite legendary appearance the 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:09.320 first time where you did the whole funnel thing in 0:02:09.440 --> 0:02:12.680 Las Vegas, the trash ones. It's Bill Crackenburger. Everybody. Wow, 0:02:12.720 --> 0:02:15.200 thanks you That was that was That was a great show. 0:02:15.240 --> 0:02:19.480 We did that, and that's probably a decade ago. Close, 0:02:19.840 --> 0:02:23.160 I'd say, like seven eight years years. Yeah, Bill, Bill 0:02:23.160 --> 0:02:25.079 crack We're happy to be on. Thanks guys at Bill 0:02:25.120 --> 0:02:27.880 crackbad with the came. What's the app? Uh crack wins app? 0:02:27.960 --> 0:02:31.679 Crack wins app. Thanks for being here. Man. Thanks. You 0:02:31.800 --> 0:02:35.880 just made a rather large wager at the at the window. Yeah, 0:02:36.120 --> 0:02:38.639 but six or six hundred on something. I can't really 0:02:38.639 --> 0:02:44.120 talk about it yet, Okay, I won't pry. No, it's um. 0:02:44.160 --> 0:02:46.840 There was a just a good opportunity. I've seen they 0:02:46.880 --> 0:02:49.360 had a six here on a game. I usually don't 0:02:49.400 --> 0:02:53.760 ever middle or scalp games. But unbelievably, as I'm sitting here, 0:02:54.160 --> 0:02:55.560 I'll be honest with you, it's lucky. I had that 0:02:55.560 --> 0:02:57.359 money in my pocket. I was like, oh my god, 0:02:57.400 --> 0:02:59.160 please have like seven grand I went my pocket to 0:02:59.160 --> 0:03:00.760 squeeze out I had like and it was a perfect 0:03:01.000 --> 0:03:03.440 because I'm just sitting here with you guys, and and 0:03:03.520 --> 0:03:05.640 right in front of me I see a a minus 0:03:05.720 --> 0:03:09.600 seven minus a dollar eleven. So I on the other side, 0:03:09.600 --> 0:03:12.120 I laid a dollar nine and and and laid a 0:03:12.200 --> 0:03:15.280 six here for a good opportunity. I just just bet 0:03:15.280 --> 0:03:17.840 a little middle for myself there, which I never normally do. 0:03:18.000 --> 0:03:21.400 An opportunity At Circus Sports, you have plenty of plenty 0:03:22.440 --> 0:03:24.079 And I didn't even question it when I went up there, 0:03:24.080 --> 0:03:25.320 I was like thinking how much I can bet? And 0:03:25.320 --> 0:03:26.600 I was like, you know, I know they're gonna take 0:03:26.840 --> 0:03:28.520 sixty six on around the game. And it went right 0:03:28.560 --> 0:03:31.160 went right through circ They will good questions. Was it 0:03:31.800 --> 0:03:33.600 a pro game? It was. It was a pro game. 0:03:33.880 --> 0:03:35.240 And as long as you have game, they used to 0:03:35.240 --> 0:03:37.480 work with it. I mean they should take you know, 0:03:37.680 --> 0:03:40.680 was it total or aside? Beside? Does the team name 0:03:40.720 --> 0:03:44.440 where I'm with Barrizona? Um, this is how much? This 0:03:44.480 --> 0:03:46.320 is how much? I don't know. No, seriously, I touched 0:03:46.320 --> 0:03:47.840 a bottle. I'm gonna tell you what it is because 0:03:48.480 --> 0:03:51.560 it's all a numbers game to me. I see what 0:03:51.600 --> 0:03:53.160 you did. I wasn't really trying to do that, but 0:03:53.160 --> 0:03:57.320 it just is. Yeah, it's game four sixty Texans minus six. 0:03:57.720 --> 0:03:59.640 I bet here at circle, which they moved to six 0:03:59.680 --> 0:04:01.360 and a half, which they really shouldn't have. No, but 0:04:01.440 --> 0:04:03.200 I mean I got to have to uh and and 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:06.040 the other side. I I took a I actually took 0:04:06.040 --> 0:04:09.440 a plus seven reduced juice, and uh, it just looks 0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:11.400 good for both places too. You've given some action, you're 0:04:11.400 --> 0:04:14.760 moving something money around and hopefully, uh maybe catch a 0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:16.680 six or seven on on a game. You know that 0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:20.040 could happen. First time I ever hung out with Bill, 0:04:20.440 --> 0:04:22.720 he had about seventy five bets on a Monday Nay 0:04:22.720 --> 0:04:25.039 football game. Had no idea what he was betting. He's like, 0:04:25.120 --> 0:04:27.599 I don't know what I'm rooting for. Oh, I can't watch. 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:30.839 I bet so many props. I bet so many props. 0:04:30.880 --> 0:04:34.640 I'm happy to say that. Uh Circus sports Now, I 0:04:34.680 --> 0:04:37.440 text met Matt Metcalf they were taking a thousand bucks 0:04:37.440 --> 0:04:39.760 on the props from me, and uh it takes some 0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:41.720 big risks too, to be honest with you. I mean, 0:04:41.800 --> 0:04:44.360 I bet something today a thousand to win thirty thousand 0:04:44.360 --> 0:04:47.000 on something. So there they're these sports books here. I'm 0:04:46.839 --> 0:04:48.640 I'm very happy if I have a couple of sports 0:04:48.640 --> 0:04:50.760 books in town that are taking some props and I 0:04:50.839 --> 0:04:52.440 don't know what the root for during the games, No, 0:04:52.520 --> 0:04:54.480 I don't. I mean I have so many. I'll have 0:04:54.520 --> 0:04:59.120 like thirty forty bets, I won't even know. In all seriousness, though, Mike, 0:04:59.120 --> 0:05:01.559 what Bill is talking about is by design. You guys 0:05:01.600 --> 0:05:05.240 set out to this was your business model, and you're 0:05:05.279 --> 0:05:08.320 playing it through. Your margins are gonna be thinner than 0:05:08.360 --> 0:05:10.160 other books that don't play it this way, but that's 0:05:10.200 --> 0:05:12.640 something that you feel is sustainable, and hopefully we'll be 0:05:13.240 --> 0:05:16.120 state by state. Well, it's a long play, Gill, you know, 0:05:16.320 --> 0:05:18.719 and so the if you I don't even think you 0:05:18.720 --> 0:05:21.560 can judge it on the first five years results. I 0:05:21.560 --> 0:05:23.040 think you've got to look at this as an eight 0:05:23.080 --> 0:05:26.560 to ten year plan with Matt's doing. And there's there's 0:05:26.560 --> 0:05:29.080 two sides to one. We just have to be recognized. 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:32.000 The people know the name. I mean, we're still the 0:05:32.040 --> 0:05:34.240 new kids on the block. We're you know, we're just 0:05:34.480 --> 0:05:38.160 what started in June of last year. I mean we're 0:05:38.200 --> 0:05:41.760 we're we're babies here. So that's one. And then too, 0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:47.479 can we deliver what we promise through fair odds, through 0:05:47.720 --> 0:05:52.680 reasonable limits, and through just tremendous guest service, which Jeff Benson, 0:05:52.720 --> 0:05:54.520 I mean, I never met someone that is this good, 0:05:54.800 --> 0:05:58.160 who calls everybody back, speaks to every customer, anybody has 0:05:58.160 --> 0:06:02.039 a question, He's on Twitter all answering, it's really I 0:06:02.080 --> 0:06:05.000 don't I have not heard one negative thing. I have 0:06:05.120 --> 0:06:07.960 to tell this story. We had the first week a survivor, 0:06:08.080 --> 0:06:12.200 seventeen people, Seventeen entries didn't submit a pick, seventeen thousand 0:06:12.240 --> 0:06:15.000 dollars down the Drake Nut's multiple. Not just seventeen people, 0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:17.880 there was several that had multiple entries that didn't submit 0:06:17.960 --> 0:06:19.560 the first week. You don't know what happened to them 0:06:19.560 --> 0:06:22.480 in the summer, you don't know. But that Monday morning, 0:06:22.520 --> 0:06:26.080 a gentleman came in and he was very upset. Um 0:06:26.279 --> 0:06:28.560 I didn't know the time cut off, tried to put 0:06:28.600 --> 0:06:31.520 it in, it was too late, it's an hour earlier, 0:06:31.560 --> 0:06:34.120 and this and that. So, I mean, he really just 0:06:34.240 --> 0:06:37.120 blasted Phil, who was the supervisor here. And then Jeff 0:06:37.160 --> 0:06:40.520 came out and later Monday afternoon wrote a letter to 0:06:40.560 --> 0:06:43.919 Derek and I talking about what an asshole he was 0:06:44.000 --> 0:06:45.920 to these two guys and how they just sat there 0:06:45.920 --> 0:06:49.000 and patiently listened to him, and how much he respected that. 0:06:49.120 --> 0:06:51.640 He wanted he wanted to apologize to everyone and say 0:06:51.680 --> 0:06:56.240 what for a great job they did. Just a great 0:06:56.240 --> 0:06:58.479 guy who I've known him for years and he's great 0:06:58.520 --> 0:07:00.880 with me. I mean, I love relationship I have and 0:07:01.040 --> 0:07:03.200 I could just text him for things. And and by 0:07:03.200 --> 0:07:06.080 the way, on Twitter he answers everything everything he is. 0:07:06.520 --> 0:07:08.600 He is great. Matt Matt caref were hired to me, 0:07:08.640 --> 0:07:11.040 said I want to bring in this kid from Palace Station. 0:07:11.160 --> 0:07:13.560 He said he's the best sports book writer when he 0:07:13.600 --> 0:07:16.000 was a writer, and he's the best line supervisor in town. 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:18.520 And I want him to run my front of house operations. 0:07:18.520 --> 0:07:21.000 And boy was he right. If I'm not mistaken, I 0:07:21.040 --> 0:07:24.680 went to less man standing at Palacetation some years ago, 0:07:24.760 --> 0:07:27.440 or maybe it was the Mayweather maybe it was the 0:07:27.480 --> 0:07:30.400 Mayweather fight against Connor McGregor whatever I was. I was 0:07:30.440 --> 0:07:32.600 at palaestation, which is random, and I think it was 0:07:32.680 --> 0:07:34.280 Jeff Benson who was there at the time, and from 0:07:34.320 --> 0:07:37.120 across the room, he's like, go, I'm like, oh, Jeff Benson, 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:40.800 he does he Uh, he's friendly even uh from from 0:07:40.800 --> 0:07:44.000 the time. I remember, Uh, you said seventeen people didn't 0:07:44.000 --> 0:07:46.640 put in for Survivor before week one? Is it true 0:07:46.680 --> 0:07:49.760 that someone didn't do it before week four? Also seventeen 0:07:49.800 --> 0:07:52.640 in week one, every entry was submitted in week two. 0:07:54.680 --> 0:07:57.360 I believe five weren't submitted in week three, and then 0:07:57.360 --> 0:08:00.760 another one last week, so we had six seventy five. 0:08:00.920 --> 0:08:03.880 Thirty four were eliminated through their picks. Most of them 0:08:04.360 --> 0:08:06.720 had San Francisco on Sunday night. That was the great 0:08:06.720 --> 0:08:09.560 bulk of it. And then another person didn't, so we're 0:08:09.840 --> 0:08:12.080 thirty five. So we're down to six forty now as 0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:13.920 we had into week five. We ask you this after 0:08:13.920 --> 0:08:15.800 four weeks, and we'll get to the picks here momentarily. 0:08:15.840 --> 0:08:19.520 But this is the last question. Sixty is a lot 0:08:19.600 --> 0:08:21.960 of people still and I know after the first week 0:08:22.000 --> 0:08:24.200 we had forty two percent of the entries went by 0:08:24.200 --> 0:08:27.400 the wayside total on the on the colts, but percent 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:33.480 of all the survivor entries lost in week one. Since then, um, 0:08:33.600 --> 0:08:36.440 people are pretty people pretty been pretty good, or at 0:08:36.480 --> 0:08:40.160 least it's worked out for everybody. Is there a because 0:08:40.280 --> 0:08:42.360 if someone goes eighteen weeks and get a million dollars, right, 0:08:42.440 --> 0:08:46.480 that's correct? Okay, what happens if there's like ten people 0:08:46.480 --> 0:08:49.400 who go eighteen weeks, a million gets added, so the 0:08:49.440 --> 0:08:52.800 total pool becomes to two point three millions. Since we 0:08:52.880 --> 0:08:55.960 had nineties so it would be two point three nine million. 0:08:56.000 --> 0:08:58.160 And then, however, many people win eighteen and over put 0:08:58.240 --> 0:09:01.600 that correct. Want of clear find that alright? Best bets? 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:04.160 Oh no, let's do Thursday night football first. I forgot 0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:07.120 how this works. O god sakes, still with us? I 0:09:07.120 --> 0:09:09.760 mean I never heard him go that long without talking. 0:09:10.840 --> 0:09:13.240 You know, last week I didn't interrupt at all, didn't 0:09:13.240 --> 0:09:16.240 get any credit for it. I'm trying again not to interrupt. 0:09:16.360 --> 0:09:18.600 But all I do is take heat from you know, 0:09:18.720 --> 0:09:23.520 big portly guys from eyewall. What can I do any 0:09:23.559 --> 0:09:26.359 thoughts on Thursday night football tonight? The Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0:09:26.360 --> 0:09:29.840 are a mass unit. Uh, We're not gonna here. Here's 0:09:29.840 --> 0:09:35.160 who's out. O. J Howard Achilles out, Uh, Shady McCoy out, Uh, 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:40.440 Godwin stand out wide receiver out, questionable and game time 0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:43.679 decisions I believe are Mike Evans. It was the other 0:09:43.920 --> 0:09:47.760 why that we were talking about who Brady loved last week, 0:09:47.920 --> 0:09:52.120 Scott Scott Yeah, let me okay. There's other players though, 0:09:52.120 --> 0:09:54.880 they're all questionable, the whole bunch of Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 0:09:55.080 --> 0:09:57.559 This line just got hit here recently too, in the 0:09:57.640 --> 0:10:00.640 last two hours. Again. It's now three flat at a 0:10:00.679 --> 0:10:03.160 couple of places here in Vegas. Three flat, largely because 0:10:03.160 --> 0:10:07.600 of all those injuries. We don't know who's playing with Tom, 0:10:08.160 --> 0:10:10.520 I'm using this game as one of my best. Oh 0:10:10.559 --> 0:10:12.400 there it is Todd Wish that what do you gotta say? 0:10:12.400 --> 0:10:14.200 What are you doing? First of all, I have a question. 0:10:14.200 --> 0:10:18.120 Are we allowed to use team totals in our picks? No? No, 0:10:18.280 --> 0:10:21.199 you're not. You're not, so then I am just going 0:10:21.240 --> 0:10:26.560 to use the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the three as 0:10:26.679 --> 0:10:30.280 my one of my picks. Um. The reason is the 0:10:30.360 --> 0:10:34.800 Bears just cannot move the football. I don't believe I 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:37.360 watched the entire game last week got screwed on an 0:10:37.360 --> 0:10:40.280 in game bet with Bears plus seven and a half. 0:10:40.320 --> 0:10:41.920 Of course they have to get the back door touched 0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:45.120 down to lose by eight, and uh, I don't see 0:10:45.160 --> 0:10:48.320 them moving the football even with with Mr Nick Foles 0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:51.000 that you know, you have to totally discount the three 0:10:51.000 --> 0:10:53.480 touchdowns at the end of the Atlanta Falcons game because 0:10:53.480 --> 0:10:56.520 it's the Atlanta Falcons. Gil Me, you, Mike and Bill 0:10:56.840 --> 0:10:59.520 could be the front four for the Atlanta Falcons and 0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:02.040 be big. We'd be better than the Atlanta Falcons defense. 0:11:02.080 --> 0:11:05.280 They are just horrendous. So the fact that Dick Foles 0:11:05.320 --> 0:11:07.160 came back and got those three touchdowns at the end 0:11:07.200 --> 0:11:09.559 of the Falcons game means nothing to me. They went 0:11:09.600 --> 0:11:13.000 up against a legitimate defensive team in Indianapolis, could not 0:11:13.120 --> 0:11:17.440 move the ball at all. It was unbelievable. Anybody who 0:11:17.440 --> 0:11:20.000 watched that game. It was literally like pulling teeth at 0:11:20.000 --> 0:11:22.600 that football game. So I don't think that the Bears 0:11:22.600 --> 0:11:25.520 can score enough to stay within three of Tampa. Tampa 0:11:25.559 --> 0:11:28.000 has got a new added professionalism now that we've got 0:11:28.080 --> 0:11:32.040 Tommy Terrific on the club. Bruce Arians and Tommy Terrific 0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:35.480 professionalism can get you a win by more than three 0:11:35.480 --> 0:11:41.679 against a team with absolutely zero offensive firepower. Tampap A 0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:45.640 miners three. Please is that number one for you? Yeah? 0:11:45.679 --> 0:11:47.800 I'm gonna go number one with that number one on 0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:50.920 a Thursday night from Toddy And I don't care that 0:11:50.960 --> 0:11:53.680 everybody's injured. Everybody was injured last week, and they just 0:11:53.800 --> 0:11:55.680 moved up and down the field to win the football 0:11:55.720 --> 0:11:59.319 game after Anthony Lynn gave them the game at that 0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:01.160 By the way, I haven't been on a numbers game 0:12:01.240 --> 0:12:04.280 to talk about these incredible grievances. But how in the 0:12:04.320 --> 0:12:07.040 world do you hand the ball off with less than 0:12:07.080 --> 0:12:09.679 thirty seconds left in the first half inside your own fifteen. 0:12:09.840 --> 0:12:11.920 Just take a knee. I always say, why are you 0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:14.720 even running the ball? So they fumble the football, given 0:12:14.720 --> 0:12:17.000 the touchdown, and now they're back in the game. Tampa 0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:19.600 Bay wins the games. Just to be accurate, forty seven 0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:22.200 seconds left in the first half, Tampa Bay has one 0:12:22.240 --> 0:12:25.400 time out, so yes, the Chargers can run it out 0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:29.240 up to seven. I have timp I have Tampa Bay 0:12:29.240 --> 0:12:32.240 as a survivor. Pick. I am dead in the water 0:12:32.760 --> 0:12:35.360 and I'm thinking myself, this is over. Why I gave 0:12:35.400 --> 0:12:38.880 it a good run for three entire weeks and Anthony 0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:41.800 Lynn came to the rescue. Anthony Lynn who runs a 0:12:41.880 --> 0:12:44.079 run option and on the five yard line with forty 0:12:44.120 --> 0:12:47.240 seven seconds left, justin Herman tries to hand it off 0:12:47.280 --> 0:12:49.959 to Joshua Kelly but hits him in the chest. Loose ball, 0:12:50.280 --> 0:12:54.640 bucks ball. Three plays later, touchdown into the break, and 0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:56.120 we know what happens. All of a sudden, I heard 0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:59.640 the Rocky music for my for my survivor. Pick Todd's right, 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:02.120 dumbast player of the week, you do it. It's not 0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:06.000 just him. You watch all these coaches running the ball 0:13:06.080 --> 0:13:08.200 with like no type. They're not they know they're not 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:10.760 going to get a field goal. They they're just running 0:13:10.760 --> 0:13:12.720 the ball because oh, we'll just run the ball. See 0:13:12.760 --> 0:13:16.720 what happens. It's nothing good can happen. Just take an 0:13:16.840 --> 0:13:19.800 effing knee and go to the locker room. How hard 0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:24.080 is that? As our buddy, he says, Uh, why is 0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:27.760 it that Anthony Lynn is never mentioned alongside Bill O'Brien 0:13:27.760 --> 0:13:29.800 who got fired as the coach and gym of the Texans, 0:13:30.160 --> 0:13:34.640 alongside Adam Gaze, alongside Matt Patricia. Why is Anthony Lynn 0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:38.880 not in that group? Haven't we seen enough sort of 0:13:38.960 --> 0:13:42.840 rhetorical but I think everybody thinks we have, right, Yes, yes, 0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:46.120 we've seen us. We've seen What about all the Philip 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:49.920 Rivers games inside the ten yard line endless football games? 0:13:50.440 --> 0:13:52.719 That was also Philip Rivers too, right? How about the 0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:54.320 end of the Broncos game where all you have to 0:13:54.320 --> 0:13:56.160 do is fall on the guy? But you know what 0:13:56.200 --> 0:13:59.000 I mean, they let nine seconds left last year and 0:13:59.160 --> 0:14:00.960 let him go. I mean, this is week after week 0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:06.160 that Broncos, the Broncos Chargers en when it was third 0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:09.120 down in plus territory and Rivers just threw it into 0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:14.080 the dirt. Cost me a zillion dollars to off all 0:14:14.120 --> 0:14:16.600 that game last year. The thing is, look, I mean, 0:14:16.640 --> 0:14:20.200 Anthony Lynn is really bad. I mean we counted how 0:14:20.200 --> 0:14:22.440 many ways did he lose the game against Kansas City 0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:25.040 in Week two? All those people survived, surve we would 0:14:25.040 --> 0:14:26.680 have knocked out another half of the field with the 0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:31.360 Chiefs that week. Anthony Lynn cannot run a read option 0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:33.760 when he can take it, not like he ran a 0:14:33.840 --> 0:14:36.560 lead or an off tackle plate. No, a read option 0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:38.360 where you have to stick it in the chest. Do 0:14:38.400 --> 0:14:39.880 you leave it there? Do you pull it out? With 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:44.360 a rookie quarterback handing the ball well to knee, all 0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:45.920 you need to do is take a knee. Even if 0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:48.480 they had two time outs, you could have killed enough 0:14:48.520 --> 0:14:51.320 time eleven seconds and three plays to punt to two 0:14:51.440 --> 0:14:54.080 d and a a half. Here's the thing, Dean Spano should 0:14:54.080 --> 0:14:55.680 have been waiting for him at the tunnel, not in 0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:57.760 the locker room. He should have been waiting for him 0:14:57.760 --> 0:14:59.840 at the tunnel to dismiss him. But it's not going 0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:02.800 to happen. And Gil, you asked the question, and the 0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:05.600 reason is it's because Anthony Lynn is a great man. 0:15:06.040 --> 0:15:08.840 Anthony Lynne does all this charitable work. He's good for 0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:11.320 the community, and I think that buys him a lot 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:14.560 of leeway. But he's invite him to Thanksgiving, Mike, I'll 0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:16.840 invite him to Thanksgiving and I'll give him the seat 0:15:16.840 --> 0:15:19.400 of honor. I'll give him this number one seat. But 0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:21.960 I don't want him calling plays inside the one minute left. 0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:25.240 He's been really really bad at managing games, really really bad. 0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:30.280 Horrible Bill. What's your number one best bet? Wow? This is. 0:15:30.440 --> 0:15:31.800 You know, it's really tough for me to give out 0:15:31.880 --> 0:15:33.440 number ones in the NFL, but I am going to 0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:35.680 do it here. I think, by the way, and this 0:15:35.800 --> 0:15:37.440 from a guy who's been getting one and two is 0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:39.120 in the Megapod. I was three and two in the continents, 0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:41.320 but I can't get it done in the megapod. I 0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:46.240 hate this week of spreads eight. You know what, You're right. 0:15:46.280 --> 0:15:48.520 I had much more confidence last week when I was 0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:51.040 betting overs on Monday mornings and they were I was 0:15:51.040 --> 0:15:55.160 getting two and three point movements. Um. I actually um 0:15:55.640 --> 0:15:57.640 talked about this this morning, and this game is still 0:15:57.640 --> 0:16:02.600 obtainable at this line. The that's Arizona under forty seven. 0:16:02.640 --> 0:16:05.560 It's still there. So I'm I'm gonna I'm gonna put 0:16:05.560 --> 0:16:07.440 my money up there and they they they moved at 0:16:07.480 --> 0:16:09.200 the beginning and a little bit, but now it came 0:16:09.200 --> 0:16:12.200 back a little bit. So it's hanging around forty seven 0:16:12.240 --> 0:16:14.800 here and even here at circle forty seven all over town. 0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:17.920 So yeah, I like the under in the in the 0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:21.880 Jets Arizona game. Um, you know, it's funny. But since 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:23.280 we came on air, there was a little bit of 0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:26.200 action here on Arizona. It's now minus seven and a 0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:29.000 half and a couple of spots minus eight at one spot, 0:16:29.600 --> 0:16:32.240 minus seven, minus fifty minus seven, minus twenty minus seven 0:16:32.240 --> 0:16:35.280 minus twenty right here at circle. So we'll see what's happened. 0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:38.160 I'm looking looking for a game maybe like uh, I 0:16:38.200 --> 0:16:40.280 don't know, you know, the Jets actually got the Jets 0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:41.520 actually got a little bit. It took a little bit 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:42.800 of mo I'm sorry, Arizona took a little bit of 0:16:42.840 --> 0:16:45.080 money here. On the favorite to sorts, it's very tough 0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:47.520 for me to give out a favorite and under. It's 0:16:47.560 --> 0:16:50.400 like a you know, a non correlated parlor. I'm more like, 0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:52.840 I like doing favorite over or dog and under. But 0:16:52.960 --> 0:16:55.120 let's just stick with the under here under forty seven 0:16:55.160 --> 0:16:57.400 on the Jets game and under forty seven just repeat 0:16:57.400 --> 0:16:59.280 what we said on a numbers game this morning on Visa. 0:16:59.720 --> 0:17:02.600 Not because of the quarterback change with the Jets from 0:17:02.640 --> 0:17:04.879 Darnald to Flacco. No, did not know that that. I 0:17:04.920 --> 0:17:07.720 think that was announcement yesterday yesterday pretty much. You know 0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:10.080 this was this was bet on Monday. So yeah, by 0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:11.879 the way, we gave Todd a three on Tampa Bay. 0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:15.080 Are you see consensus three across the board? Um Tampa 0:17:15.119 --> 0:17:18.640 Bay now went to minus three, minus twenty almost everywhere, 0:17:19.119 --> 0:17:23.560 minus three flat at south Point, Westgate, minus Dreams, Circus, 0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:26.000 minus Drew, minus twenty. So uh yeah, we'll give him 0:17:26.000 --> 0:17:29.119 the three we had three. Mikey, Well, I'm gonna go 0:17:29.160 --> 0:17:32.520 back to fading the team I faded last week. I 0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:39.800 still don't think that the public ah can can change 0:17:39.840 --> 0:17:42.360 their mindset on this team because they're such a public team. 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:45.639 But the Dallas Cowboys are just got awful and they 0:17:45.680 --> 0:17:48.639 really shouldn't be laying points too many teams at all 0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:50.840 in this They let alone nine and a half points 0:17:51.359 --> 0:17:55.280 to to a division rival in the late game on Sunday. Look, 0:17:55.760 --> 0:17:59.640 the Giants were competitive against the Rams, and we're still 0:17:59.640 --> 0:18:02.160 in that game with a chance to really force overtime. Late, 0:18:02.680 --> 0:18:05.080 and the Giants defense did a decent job going into 0:18:05.160 --> 0:18:08.840 Sofi and slowing down that Rams attack, which Buffalo couldn't 0:18:08.880 --> 0:18:11.600 stop at all in the second half a week before. Now, 0:18:11.640 --> 0:18:13.639 no one would argue the Giants have a good defense, 0:18:13.680 --> 0:18:17.439 as the Buffalo Bills do, but they're respectable enough to 0:18:17.520 --> 0:18:19.800 slow teams down and kick enough field goals and get 0:18:19.920 --> 0:18:23.040 enough punts. This Dallas defense is going to give up 0:18:23.119 --> 0:18:26.280 thirty five points every game, and you can run on them, 0:18:26.359 --> 0:18:28.600 all right, you can run on them, which will give 0:18:28.680 --> 0:18:31.720 Daniel Jones more time to throw the ball off of 0:18:31.720 --> 0:18:34.119 play action. I just think nine and a half is 0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:36.320 way too much here. I think this is a one 0:18:36.400 --> 0:18:39.359 score game, and it wouldn't shock me if the Giants 0:18:39.400 --> 0:18:41.680 went into Dallas and beat them. So the New York 0:18:41.680 --> 0:18:44.040 Giants are my best bet, is my That is my 0:18:44.160 --> 0:18:48.400 number two. I like the same reason. My Dallas cowboy 0:18:48.480 --> 0:18:53.840 fan friend, uh, who I've known since childhood, says to 0:18:53.840 --> 0:18:56.480 me because I had said, I said, listen, dude, you're 0:18:56.480 --> 0:18:59.680 gonna win the division and Dallas and Washington half game 0:18:59.680 --> 0:19:02.280 behind one, two and one Eagles, and he says, he goes, listen, 0:19:02.320 --> 0:19:05.280 don't don't say that to me. Anymore. They're the worst 0:19:05.640 --> 0:19:09.320 defense in the NFL in the last ten years, and 0:19:09.359 --> 0:19:11.199 a lot of it is because of injuries. But the 0:19:11.240 --> 0:19:13.520 injuries are there, and he says it is they are 0:19:13.560 --> 0:19:16.200 a sieve, a complete sief. So he'd be he'd agree 0:19:16.240 --> 0:19:18.399 with your pick right there. It's number two for me, 0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:20.520 number one for me, and I'm taking the Cincinnati Bengals 0:19:20.520 --> 0:19:23.080 getting all those point against the Baltimore Ravens uh and 0:19:23.160 --> 0:19:25.679 it and it's it's nothing else other than for me, 0:19:26.160 --> 0:19:30.360 the fact that Joe Burrow has just impressed me tremendously. 0:19:30.600 --> 0:19:34.280 He seems to have a thing going with Tee Higgins. Uh. 0:19:34.440 --> 0:19:36.600 Joe Mixon, who didn't look like he was going to 0:19:36.680 --> 0:19:39.320 play at all last week, ends up playing in Cincinnati's 0:19:39.320 --> 0:19:42.439 win against Jacksonville, absolutely filled up the box score. And 0:19:42.480 --> 0:19:46.840 I think Baltimore that after that Kansas City game, I 0:19:46.880 --> 0:19:49.840 think there's a lot of trouble with that offense, and 0:19:49.960 --> 0:19:54.119