WEBVTT - How Microsoft Excel Conquered Corporate America

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>This week in Las Vegas, a group of elite players

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<v Speaker 2>faced off to compete for a coveted world Championship title.

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<v Speaker 3>Everyone seems to know the score.

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<v Speaker 1>It really does feel like you're, you know, at Madison

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<v Speaker 1>Square Garden watching the nick starting five run out.

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<v Speaker 3>What I've seen Andrew Dewey.

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<v Speaker 1>With a little bit less excitement.

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<v Speaker 2>Maybe the competitors enter the arena through a tunnel pro

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<v Speaker 2>sports style.

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<v Speaker 1>Everybody runs out to cheers, you know, befitting their celebrity

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<v Speaker 1>and skill. In the world of spreadsheets, it's the sounds

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<v Speaker 1>World Championship.

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<v Speaker 2>Who is going away? Yep, that's right, We're talking about

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<v Speaker 2>the World Championship of Microsoft XL. Dina Bass, who's covered

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<v Speaker 2>Microsoft for decades and now writes about AI, says since

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<v Speaker 2>the first competition in twenty twelve, Microsoft excelling has become

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<v Speaker 2>something of a serious esport. All right, audience, we're gonna

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<v Speaker 2>need your help. We're gonna count it down, We're gonna

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<v Speaker 2>start it five, let's go. Fuck it even has commentators.

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<v Speaker 1>Three two. What have you ever seen like video game

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<v Speaker 1>speed running where people try to finish like a Mario

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<v Speaker 1>game as quickly as possible. That also has that like

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<v Speaker 1>fla by play commentary, because otherwise, like normal people wouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>understand what's going on. They sort of give them something

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<v Speaker 1>to solve, and you're watching it, but it moves so

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<v Speaker 1>quickly you kind of don't know what you're watching.

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<v Speaker 2>The right side of the screen as well.

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<v Speaker 1>If you're wondering what's flashing on the right side, there

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<v Speaker 1>those are his keys and his shortcuts.

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<v Speaker 2>So obviously at this level, what you're watching these pro

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<v Speaker 2>spreadsheeters do isn't too different from what millions of office

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<v Speaker 2>workers around the country do every day, sit at a

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<v Speaker 2>computer and put numbers into selling.

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<v Speaker 3>The genesis of this competition was financial modeling.

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<v Speaker 2>That's Max Chafkin, who writes for BusinessWeek and co hosts

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<v Speaker 2>the magazine's podcast Everybody's Business.

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<v Speaker 3>So it used to be a competition to see who

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<v Speaker 3>is the best at financial modeling, which is of course

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<v Speaker 3>how most people use Microsoft Excel, and they changed it

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<v Speaker 3>a couple of years back to make it more accessible.

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<v Speaker 3>So now what they model our games. But at the

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<v Speaker 3>end of the day, viewers are like looking at a spreadsheet,

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<v Speaker 3>like a normal Excel spreadsheet with and there's like a

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<v Speaker 3>little little mini screen inside like an inset screen, like

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<v Speaker 3>on a video game where you see the athlete you know,

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<v Speaker 3>clicking the mouse and like and manipulating the you know,

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<v Speaker 3>the cells.

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<v Speaker 2>It's not exactly an NBA game, but watch an Excel

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<v Speaker 2>wizard input functions at warp speed and your pulse might

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<v Speaker 2>start racing, which is not the kind of emotion people

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<v Speaker 2>usually associate with Excel. Somehow, despite its association with badly

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<v Speaker 2>lit offices and boring capitalist gruntwork, Excel has become one

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<v Speaker 2>of the most influential computer programs in the world, and

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<v Speaker 2>not just in the world of esports.

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<v Speaker 3>Excel is like the most I think it's like probably

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<v Speaker 3>the most important piece of software that has ever been created.

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<v Speaker 3>Basically like it runs almost every single business, it runs,

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<v Speaker 3>every single nonprofit. It runs like any big organization you

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<v Speaker 3>can think about is in some sense operating on Microsoft

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<v Speaker 3>Excel because it's the dominant spreadshet platform.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Sarah Holder and this is the big take from

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg News Today on the show, Microsoft Excel is now

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<v Speaker 2>forty years old in an age of AI and Google Sheets,

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<v Speaker 2>Can it last another forty? For many people? Microsoft Excel's

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<v Speaker 2>classic green and white grid and it's seemingly infinite scroll

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<v Speaker 2>of columns and rows bring up strong feelings.

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<v Speaker 3>How do you feel about microsophic self? I love using it.

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<v Speaker 2>This is something our producer David Fox discovered walking around

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<v Speaker 2>New York City's Bryant Park during a lunch break.

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<v Speaker 3>Do you have a favorite XL formula or function?

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<v Speaker 2>Oh, my gosh, I mean it's really basic, but I

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<v Speaker 2>love account IF or account A X look up HTA

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<v Speaker 2>is a good one.

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<v Speaker 3>I use a lot of advance statements and like being

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<v Speaker 3>able to like coffy things, you know, when you just

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<v Speaker 3>drag the cursor down. I mean, if you're really a pro,

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<v Speaker 3>you don't use the mouse, but I will use the

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<v Speaker 3>mouse just for efficiency.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg's Dina Bass and Max Chafkin say those kinds of

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<v Speaker 2>reactions are pretty typical.

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<v Speaker 1>Excel just symbolizes drudgery, right. It's every workplace movie stereotype.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, it's the office in Slough, it's office space

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<v Speaker 1>in your Nine Bosses. The user interface is dull. It

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<v Speaker 1>hasn't really changed much.

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<v Speaker 3>Also, and this was suggested to me by Mitch kap Or,

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<v Speaker 3>who's a spreadsheet pioneer. But it's also an embodiment of

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<v Speaker 3>the things that we hate most about capitalism, right, Like

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<v Speaker 3>Excel is about cutting costs, it's about optimizing if you

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<v Speaker 3>get laid off, like guaranteed you were laid off because

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<v Speaker 3>of a cell on an Excel spreadsheet. And I think

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<v Speaker 3>we all like kind of understand that it's like the

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<v Speaker 3>one fun parts of capitalism.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, Like we're all just numbers in an Excel file

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<v Speaker 2>exactly day.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, I think for many people, including many power users,

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<v Speaker 3>it's like it is like a thing that they hate

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<v Speaker 3>and a thing that they also appreciate, the thing for

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<v Speaker 3>me that kind of epitomize this. There's a very active

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<v Speaker 3>community on Reddit for Excel. The most popular post of

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<v Speaker 3>all time is somebody explaining how to watch Wall E

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<v Speaker 3>inside of Microsoft Excel in order to trick their companies

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<v Speaker 3>workplace software into thinking that they're using Excel when they're

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<v Speaker 3>in fact watching a movie.

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<v Speaker 2>So they're on Excel for like an hour and forty

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<v Speaker 2>five minutes, but they're just I love.

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<v Speaker 3>It because it totally epitomizes. First of all, this software

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<v Speaker 3>is insanely powerful, like you can add up numbers, but

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<v Speaker 3>you can also run full on programs, and yet like

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<v Speaker 3>with all of that power, what you're doing is getting

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<v Speaker 3>around the fact that you have to use the software

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<v Speaker 3>in the first place.

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<v Speaker 2>There are something like five hundred million paying Excel users

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<v Speaker 2>out there, according to Max and Dena's calculations based on

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<v Speaker 2>Microsoft's public disclosures. Those users range from Excel social media

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<v Speaker 2>influencers to employees at the US Department of War Finance, guys,

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<v Speaker 2>college students, and people like Steve Balmer.

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<v Speaker 3>Most people think it's pretty weird. I keep a spreadsheet

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<v Speaker 3>of how I spend my hours. When we interviewed Steve Balmer,

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<v Speaker 3>he was like, oh yeah, I mean, like, I'm not

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<v Speaker 3>really an Excel guy. And then he showed us all these,

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<v Speaker 3>like all the insane ways that he was using it.

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<v Speaker 2>Steve Balmer headed Microsoft sales in the eighties and went

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<v Speaker 2>on to become the company's CEO. He now owns the

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<v Speaker 2>Los Angeles Clippers.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, can you guys see that? Oh my god.

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<v Speaker 2>He showed Max and Dina the Excel spreadsheet he uses

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<v Speaker 2>to organize his life.

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<v Speaker 3>So this is kind of my spreadsheet.

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<v Speaker 2>Twenty five budget, twenty twenty five actual year to date?

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<v Speaker 1>How many nights in my way from home? What nights

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<v Speaker 1>were they? I've known Steve Balmer for more than two decades.

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<v Speaker 1>His entire brain is just a series of endless spreadsheets.

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<v Speaker 1>That's the way he thinks.

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<v Speaker 3>I of course asked him, like, where's the bathroom time go?

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<v Speaker 3>He's like, Oh, that's personal time.

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<v Speaker 2>Everything nine to five I keep track of and anything

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<v Speaker 2>clippers at night. Extreme as it may be, Balmer's spreadsheet

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<v Speaker 2>habit speaks to how Excel has morph from a computational

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<v Speaker 2>tool to a ubiquitous part of people's everyday lives. But

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<v Speaker 2>how did the digital spreadsheet revolution start? Max says it

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<v Speaker 2>begins in the nineteen seventies, not with Microsoft or Excel,

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<v Speaker 2>but with a program called VisiCalc.

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<v Speaker 3>We spoke to the inventor of iCal, this guy named

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<v Speaker 3>Dan Bricklin, who dreamed it up while he was in

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<v Speaker 3>a business school class. There are things that look like spreadsheets,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, from ancient Mesopotamia. But like he was like,

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<v Speaker 3>wouldn't it be great if you could have one of

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<v Speaker 3>these tables with numbers where it just calculates instantly. And

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<v Speaker 3>he created, with a co founder, Bob Frankston, basically this

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<v Speaker 3>kind of rough hewn spreadsheet called Visical for the Apple too.

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<v Speaker 3>It really was I think the thing that started the

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<v Speaker 3>personal computing revolution.

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<v Speaker 2>At the time, computers were mostly used by universities or

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<v Speaker 2>large companies. They weren't in lots of people's homes or

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<v Speaker 2>in most people's desks at work. But big technology companies

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<v Speaker 2>like Microsoft, we're hoping to change that.

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<v Speaker 1>Microsoft's like early motto was, you know, a computer on

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<v Speaker 1>every desk and in every home running Microsoft software. But

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<v Speaker 1>the problem is you have to convince people that they

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<v Speaker 1>want this. Why would anybody want their own one of

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<v Speaker 1>these things?

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<v Speaker 2>Microsoft realized that spreadsheet software could be part of that

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<v Speaker 2>pitch for selling more personal computers, so they decided to

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<v Speaker 2>take what VisiCalc pioneered and iterate on it. They started

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<v Speaker 2>working on a digital spreadsheet competitor. Was there a moment

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<v Speaker 2>when Microsoft kind of realized this could be a really

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<v Speaker 2>big deal for them as a company.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, they knew from the jump. By the time

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<v Speaker 3>the Excel project started in eighty three, which was originally

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<v Speaker 3>called Project Odyssey, spreadsheets were a thing. Like everyone knew

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<v Speaker 3>that there were basically like two cool things you could

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<v Speaker 3>do with a computer. One was we're processing like desktop publishing,

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<v Speaker 3>and the other is spreadsheets. So Microsoft's like frantically like

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<v Speaker 3>trying to like make their own spreadsheet and they made

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<v Speaker 3>they made this original one which was like a VisiCalc

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<v Speaker 3>knockoff called Multiplan that did not work out, and then

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<v Speaker 3>they started working on another knockoff, which was a Lotus knockoff.

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<v Speaker 3>Lotus being like, at the time, the most successful spreadsheet program,

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<v Speaker 3>and they made this decision which I think in retrospect

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<v Speaker 3>it looks inspired to put it on the Mac. And

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<v Speaker 3>not only did that help like propel the Mac, it

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<v Speaker 3>also ends up propelling Microsoft because spreadsheets using this kind

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<v Speaker 3>of graphical interface, the point and click thing, it's just

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<v Speaker 3>like a way more elegant version of the experience, and

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<v Speaker 3>that then sort of propels Excel to become the dominant

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<v Speaker 3>spreadsheet platform. And then that gets juiced by like a

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<v Speaker 3>ton of sort of Microsoft, you know, hard nosed business behavior.

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<v Speaker 2>One of the key business strategies was selling subscriptions to

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<v Speaker 2>several of their software apps together as a package. That

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<v Speaker 2>package was called Microsoft Office.

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<v Speaker 3>I think if you're trying to understand, like how did

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<v Speaker 3>Microsoft sort of use Excel to propel itself to this dominance, Like,

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<v Speaker 3>in one word, it's bundling. As Microsoft evolved into the nineties,

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<v Speaker 3>they start making all these deals with big companies and

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<v Speaker 3>with computer manufacturers, so it becomes this like thing where

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<v Speaker 3>you can't really switch your spreadsheet without making a bunch

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<v Speaker 3>of other changes that could be potentially disruptive to your business.

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<v Speaker 1>The bundle got even bigger, sort of in the cloud era,

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<v Speaker 1>because ultimately Microsoft winds up doing this you know, cloud

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<v Speaker 1>license offering where if you're a corporation, every employee gets

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<v Speaker 1>everything in one thing. It ends up becoming its ends

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<v Speaker 1>up being called Microsoft three sixty five, and you can't

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<v Speaker 1>take those pieces apart. And look, I had a CIO

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<v Speaker 1>tell me while I was recaring a different story about

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<v Speaker 1>a year ago, that his CEO was trying to figure

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<v Speaker 1>out how they could save money on software, and came

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<v Speaker 1>over to him and said, look, you know, I personally

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<v Speaker 1>don't use Excel. Can you go to Microsoft and you

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<v Speaker 1>can save some money on my license. I don't need Excel,

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<v Speaker 1>don't pay them for Excel for me. And the CIO

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<v Speaker 1>just looked at a CEO like, you, sweet summer child,

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<v Speaker 1>that that is.

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<v Speaker 3>Not a thing.

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<v Speaker 2>With the benefit of hindsight, how important was Excel in

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<v Speaker 2>turning Microsoft into the company that it is today.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, I think there's no Microsoft, the four trillion

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<v Speaker 3>almost four trillion dollar you know, market cap company that

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<v Speaker 3>dominates the business software market without Excel.

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<v Speaker 2>In four decades, Excel has managed to conquer the corporate

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<v Speaker 2>world and seep into our culture, but it's no longer

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<v Speaker 2>the only game in town. The challenges to Excel's dominance

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<v Speaker 2>that's coming up next. When Microsoft Excel was first released

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<v Speaker 2>in nineteen eighty five, it built on the work of

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<v Speaker 2>early digital spreadsheet programs like VisiCalc and Lotus, and pretty

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<v Speaker 2>much since then, Excel has been synonymous with spreadsheets, but

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg's Dina Bass says that hasn't stopped other companies from

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<v Speaker 2>trying to compete with it, like Google, which introduced Google

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<v Speaker 2>Sheets in two thousand and six.

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<v Speaker 1>Several people we spoke to, including you know, Ray Azi,

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<v Speaker 1>who after his time at Lotus actually ended up at

0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:36.480
<v Speaker 1>Microsoft working on their cloud strategy, you know, said to us, Look,

0:13:36.679 --> 0:13:39.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, people thought we thought sheets was going to

0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:43.040
<v Speaker 1>and just Google's office competitors in general were going to

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<v Speaker 1>be the thing that you know, took out Excel, but

0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:49.320
<v Speaker 1>it just never really happened. And look, I mean Google

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<v Speaker 1>does have a number of their office competitor is particularly

0:13:54.080 --> 0:13:57.840
<v Speaker 1>strong in schools. You know, most kids. When they go

0:13:57.880 --> 0:13:59.840
<v Speaker 1>to school, they get a Chromebook and it comes with

0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:02.600
<v Speaker 1>the Google applications, and so you end up with a

0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:05.400
<v Speaker 1>generation and people that are growing up not using Office

0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:08.920
<v Speaker 1>but instead using the Google rivals. And so there has

0:14:09.000 --> 0:14:11.200
<v Speaker 1>been this question, I think for the last ten years

0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:13.199
<v Speaker 1>or so about what would happen when those folks hit

0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:16.720
<v Speaker 1>the workforce. But we're still really not seeing a mass

0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:19.320
<v Speaker 1>migration away from office. It seems like when you hit

0:14:19.360 --> 0:14:21.880
<v Speaker 1>the workforce, you get assigned your office license.

0:14:22.840 --> 0:14:26.520
<v Speaker 2>So far Excel has managed to fend off its free

0:14:26.560 --> 0:14:31.520
<v Speaker 2>cloud based competitor, but now it's also confronting another big

0:14:31.600 --> 0:14:36.120
<v Speaker 2>technological shift. I have to ask what about AI? What

0:14:36.280 --> 0:14:38.960
<v Speaker 2>kind of threat does AI post to Excel?

0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:42.520
<v Speaker 3>So if you think, like at the furthest remove, the

0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:45.600
<v Speaker 3>promise of AI is it's going to take a large

0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:48.280
<v Speaker 3>amount of data of information and allow you to ask

0:14:48.360 --> 0:14:50.440
<v Speaker 3>questions of it and get answers in an easy way.

0:14:50.520 --> 0:14:52.760
<v Speaker 3>And that's like what a spreadsheet does. And so there

0:14:52.800 --> 0:14:56.560
<v Speaker 3>are lots of potential Excel competitors. There are sort of

0:14:56.640 --> 0:14:59.520
<v Speaker 3>like AI versions of Excel. There are these kind of

0:14:59.520 --> 0:15:03.280
<v Speaker 3>like AI tools that are designed essentially to work with Excel,

0:15:03.560 --> 0:15:07.760
<v Speaker 3>but like part of The problem is that these AI

0:15:07.880 --> 0:15:11.800
<v Speaker 3>tools are really just either copycats of Excel, like they're

0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:14.880
<v Speaker 3>sort of just like doing exactly what Excel does, or

0:15:14.880 --> 0:15:17.920
<v Speaker 3>they're just little pieces that are designed to work with Excel.

0:15:18.000 --> 0:15:21.200
<v Speaker 3>So it's like an AI assistant that will spit out

0:15:21.240 --> 0:15:24.400
<v Speaker 3>a spreadsheet, but that spreadsheet ends up being an Excel file.

0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:26.680
<v Speaker 3>But then there's an other issue with AI, which is,

0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:30.160
<v Speaker 3>like AI is not great at math, like just the

0:15:30.320 --> 0:15:32.760
<v Speaker 3>like just like the most basic Excel function is like

0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:35.160
<v Speaker 3>some like add up a big long list of numbers,

0:15:35.200 --> 0:15:39.680
<v Speaker 3>and like large language models are not awesome at computation

0:15:40.240 --> 0:15:43.200
<v Speaker 3>because like they're going for approximation, not the not the

0:15:43.240 --> 0:15:46.280
<v Speaker 3>perfect answers. And then the other thing is AI models

0:15:46.320 --> 0:15:50.240
<v Speaker 3>are really bad at, like at telling you why they

0:15:50.360 --> 0:15:52.600
<v Speaker 3>arrived at a given answer, and that is the thing

0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:54.240
<v Speaker 3>that spreadsheets are awesome at.

0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:57.960
<v Speaker 2>And Dina says that even some of the AI products

0:15:57.960 --> 0:16:02.080
<v Speaker 2>that are aiming to replace Excel still rely on spreadsheets

0:16:02.160 --> 0:16:03.320
<v Speaker 2>to manage their data.

0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:06.000
<v Speaker 1>What people are trying to do is not reinvent the

0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:11.920
<v Speaker 1>underlying spreadsheet layer. It's you know, basically create a copilot

0:16:12.040 --> 0:16:15.280
<v Speaker 1>or an assistant that works on top of the data

0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:17.920
<v Speaker 1>in the spreadsheet and answers questions for you. Now, Microsoft,

0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:20.160
<v Speaker 1>of course is trying to do the same thing with

0:16:20.240 --> 0:16:21.119
<v Speaker 1>their Copilot.

0:16:21.400 --> 0:16:24.720
<v Speaker 3>And so even if you're using an AI algorithm to

0:16:24.760 --> 0:16:27.120
<v Speaker 3>generate a spreadsheet, my guess is it's going to spit

0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:28.680
<v Speaker 3>it out and you're going to be right back and

0:16:28.760 --> 0:16:32.120
<v Speaker 3>Microsoft Excel just like your parents and maybe even your

0:16:32.120 --> 0:16:32.960
<v Speaker 3>grandparents were.

0:16:33.480 --> 0:16:36.240
<v Speaker 2>Max says, there might be something deeper at play here,

0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:40.760
<v Speaker 2>something intangible that's kept people coming back to Excel year

0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:41.400
<v Speaker 2>after year.

0:16:41.560 --> 0:16:44.480
<v Speaker 3>Maybe there is something fundamental to a spreadsheet that like

0:16:44.520 --> 0:16:49.400
<v Speaker 3>we wouldn't actually want to process data in another way

0:16:49.440 --> 0:16:51.840
<v Speaker 3>that like, really, this is just like a table of numbers.

0:16:52.080 --> 0:16:54.000
<v Speaker 3>Like I said, people have been using tables and numbers

0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:54.960
<v Speaker 3>for a very long time.

0:16:55.120 --> 0:16:56.760
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, if it was good enough for mesopotagics.

0:16:57.040 --> 0:16:59.520
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's like it's how Steve Bomber's brain works. Maybe

0:16:59.520 --> 0:17:01.720
<v Speaker 3>it's how all of our brains work in some sense.

0:17:01.960 --> 0:17:06.239
<v Speaker 3>And like the prospect of trying to reinvent that it

0:17:06.280 --> 0:17:08.680
<v Speaker 3>doesn't make that much sense, which is why, like Dina said,

0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:12.680
<v Speaker 3>like Microsoft strategy is not to make an AI version

0:17:12.720 --> 0:17:15.840
<v Speaker 3>of Excel. It's just have like an assistant inside of

0:17:15.840 --> 0:17:18.520
<v Speaker 3>Excel that and this is you know, barring the language

0:17:18.520 --> 0:17:20.760
<v Speaker 3>that Microsoft executives use when they talk about it, but

0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:23.320
<v Speaker 3>it's basically like, they want to make you as good

0:17:23.320 --> 0:17:27.080
<v Speaker 3>as the world champion three two.

0:17:26.480 --> 0:17:30.640
<v Speaker 2>One, and we dine Wow.

0:17:31.160 --> 0:17:34.360
<v Speaker 3>So you watch those world champions on TV. You're really impressed,

0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:38.440
<v Speaker 3>You're thrilled. A huge congratulations to our twenty twenty five

0:17:38.520 --> 0:17:43.600
<v Speaker 3>Microsoft Excel World Champion Deer mid Early and now you,

0:17:43.720 --> 0:17:46.200
<v Speaker 3>with the help of co pilot, can do the same

0:17:46.320 --> 0:17:48.680
<v Speaker 3>kinds of advanced modeling that they do. I don't think

0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:51.000
<v Speaker 3>it's quite there yet, but that's the that's the promise.

0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:01.280
<v Speaker 2>This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder.

0:18:01.600 --> 0:18:04.200
<v Speaker 2>To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access

0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:08.119
<v Speaker 2>to all of bloomberg dot com, subscribe today at Bloomberg

0:18:08.160 --> 0:18:12.159
<v Speaker 2>dot com slash Podcast offer. Thanks for listening. We'll be

0:18:12.200 --> 0:18:12.800
<v Speaker 2>back tomorrow.