Speaker 1: Check it down Man, No down Man, Surtursday morning, February two.
Speaker 1: It is the Beating the Book podcast, the last mega
Speaker 1: pot of the year. It's Kill Alexander Live from the
Speaker 1: d where Mike Palm is absent today. Are we allowed
Speaker 1: to say why Mike is absent? Todd? Do you know?
Speaker 1: Are we allowed to say why? I don't know about
Speaker 1: the allowances or disallowances. All right. In that case, Mike
Speaker 1: is a new father. So there you go. That's why
Speaker 1: Mike is not here with us. We assume that's the reason.
Speaker 1: Congratulations to Michael Palm. Todd is in the his Mom's
Speaker 1: cork Addict there in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. You good, Todd. I
Speaker 1: am not a new father as far as I know. No,
Speaker 1: that is correct. Uh. And for those who are wondering
Speaker 1: either can you can you tell the bridge story? Did
Speaker 1: you tell the bridge story on the podcast last week?
Speaker 1: Or was that on the radio? At the way and
Speaker 1: at the way end, I was just talking about where
Speaker 1: the casino is that I go to every night. My
Speaker 1: office is literally it's literally a mile or two from
Speaker 1: my house, and I drive directly over that bridge park
Speaker 1: and then I drive back at one o'clock in the
Speaker 1: morning after the Late West Coast Games. I drove home
Speaker 1: at one o'clock in the morning the night before and
Speaker 1: my friend Sean said, now you broke the bridge. That's
Speaker 1: just great. Seven o'clock in the morning. The bridge fell down,
Speaker 1: and we can laugh about it because nobody get nobody died, right,
Speaker 1: nobody died. Nobody died. Okay. What's the name of the
Speaker 1: bridge at Pittsburgh. I think it's called the fern Hollow Bridge.
Speaker 1: We always think of it just the Region Square bridge
Speaker 1: to get over a region square. But it's a real
Speaker 1: pain in the neck. Is now to go to my office,
Speaker 1: I gotta go all the way around. There's no more
Speaker 1: bridge there. It's a real thing. I was thinking. Is
Speaker 1: the universe trying to tell me there's something wrong with
Speaker 1: going over to my office? We're very interesting our guests
Speaker 1: for Super Bowl fifty six. Nobuddy is more appropriate to
Speaker 1: have as a guest for the Super Bowl then Rufus, Peabody,
Speaker 1: everybody Rufus on the show. Thank you Rufus for being
Speaker 1: on the podcast for the second time this season. Appreciate it.
Speaker 1: And second time in studio. That's right, second time studio.
Speaker 1: By the way, if I'm sounding a little weird. It's because, Uh,
Speaker 1: I was just let out of quarantine and I thought
Speaker 1: I was over this COVID thing, and all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: like it's like the Revenge of the Universe on me,
Speaker 1: and I can't breathe all of a sudden. So if
Speaker 1: I pass out in the middle of the show, you'll
Speaker 1: know why over the ear and over the mic. Proper
Speaker 1: protocol here, I'll be fine. Just so you know that
Speaker 1: people are not booing that's rude. They're saying rude for
Speaker 1: rufus the crowd, you know, the crowd, right, big crowd.
Speaker 1: All right, So we're gonna get through our prop bets.
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk a little in game props. We're gonna
Speaker 1: talk I will anyway exotic props offshore because that's what
Speaker 1: people are here for. They want to know about the
Speaker 1: anthem and about Emma em and dre Verry J. Blige,
Speaker 1: and I'm all here for it. That's what I'm here for.
Speaker 1: As far as Super Bowl fifty six is concerned, and
Speaker 1: I can tell you're both very excited about that portion. Uh,
Speaker 1: Super fifty six, the Bengals and the Rams. This has
Speaker 1: toggled between four and four and a half. There is
Speaker 1: a three and a half out there now, but yeah,
Speaker 1: it's toggle between four and four and a half the whole.
Speaker 1: It's the old time here, it's four now. Consensus in
Speaker 1: favor of the Rams total is down at forty eight
Speaker 1: and a half. It opened at fifty I believe got
Speaker 1: down a forty nine and a half forty nine forty
Speaker 1: eight and a half. It is stated at forty eight
Speaker 1: and a half for a long time also, And so
Speaker 1: rufus will start with you just on the on the
Speaker 1: line and the total itself. Do you have any bets?
Speaker 1: Did you make a bet? Do you plan on making
Speaker 1: any bets? I do not have a bet. I you know,
Speaker 1: if I get a good Rams money line at some
Speaker 1: point I might make that bet. I lean Rams, but
Speaker 1: I have been focused on profits and the line is
Speaker 1: pretty close to my number, my numbers minus four and
Speaker 1: a half without any home field of image to the Rams.
Speaker 1: You know, I've heard different arguments of how much home
Speaker 1: field advantage they should get. And let's and let me
Speaker 1: just say this about your money, your call on the
Speaker 1: money line on the Rams that we say this every
Speaker 1: year for the last quarter century. This is what Christie
Speaker 1: Andrews estimates for about the last quarter century. For whatever reason,
Speaker 1: people the casual better bets the Super Bowl differently than
Speaker 1: they do dogs during the regular season. So during the
Speaker 1: regular season betting behavior is usually take the dog plus
Speaker 1: the points for whatever reason, and no one really knows why.
Speaker 1: The last years, when betting the Super Bowl, people tend
Speaker 1: to take the dog on the money line, and what
Speaker 1: it creates is this artificial muting of the favorite on
Speaker 1: the money line. So I remember, like a few years
Speaker 1: ago when the Patriots playing the Falcons, for instance, was
Speaker 1: that three or three and a half a little smaller
Speaker 1: than this spread, but you could get like offshore of
Speaker 1: the Patriots line. Money line got all the way down
Speaker 1: to like minus one forty if I recall. So that's
Speaker 1: the kind of opportunity you're talking about. I guess the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl middle has exist for a long existed for
Speaker 1: a long time. It's because people You have a lot
Speaker 1: of people that are betting, like once a year just
Speaker 1: on the Super Bowl, right, and those kind of people
Speaker 1: they don't want to bet um, they don't want to
Speaker 1: lay mine, they don't want to bet a favorite on
Speaker 1: the money line. They want to bet favorite on the spread. Um.
Speaker 1: Because you know they would like that regular payout. They
Speaker 1: don't want to lay minus one seventy, But if they're
Speaker 1: beating the underdog, they want the They want that sort
Speaker 1: of lottery payout, but the bank for the buck. They
Speaker 1: they also don't understand the point spread. Many many people
Speaker 1: do not still understand the point spread. Have you ever
Speaker 1: tried explaining the point spread to a novice? It really
Speaker 1: doesn't seem like a very complicated topic, but try explaining
Speaker 1: it to people and you will very very quickly understand
Speaker 1: the trouble that human beings have with mathematics. So the
Speaker 1: question is, how do you explain it? I feel like
Speaker 1: different people explain it different ways. Well, I mean, maybe
Speaker 1: it's just their explanations that well that that's a good point, rufus,
Speaker 1: But I don't think it's accurate in this case because
Speaker 1: I'm actually pretty pretty articulate and explaining things. He's not
Speaker 1: questioning your are being articular. You say, how does one
Speaker 1: explain that to the novice? Right, I'll tell you how
Speaker 1: I would explain it. I would say, oh, if the
Speaker 1: spread is three and a half, what that means is
Speaker 1: is that the team that is favored by three and
Speaker 1: a half must win. By four or more points for
Speaker 1: you to cash your bet, whereas if you bet on
Speaker 1: the underdog, they must win out right, or even if
Speaker 1: they lose by three or fewer, you will win your bet.
Speaker 1: That's how I would explain. Oh, you know what I
Speaker 1: would say. I'd say that number next to it. You
Speaker 1: just add or subtract that number to your team's total
Speaker 1: and compared to the other teams, and whichever is higher wins.
Speaker 1: Oh you see that will confuse people. Well, it's just
Speaker 1: like minus. You know, your team's total minus three and
Speaker 1: a half against their total. That sounds so logical to you,
Speaker 1: But that would confuse me. If I didn't know what
Speaker 1: what you were talking about, I'd be like, what I've found, examples.
Speaker 1: I've found giving them examples is the only way that
Speaker 1: it really penetrates their brains at times. For instance, if
Speaker 1: it's a four point line and I say, if the
Speaker 1: final scores one to seventeen, who would win? Yeah? No?
Speaker 1: And then if the scores to eighteen, who would win?
Speaker 1: If it was sixteen, who would win? You know? That
Speaker 1: seems to be the only way they get eeen, I
Speaker 1: think I have an exact defar eight team. Do you
Speaker 1: so diver telling you the story about me being behind
Speaker 1: the book at the South Point during the Falcons Patriots
Speaker 1: Super Bowl when it was to the Patriots. So yeah,
Speaker 1: so this is it has to do. I had the
Speaker 1: nine the Patriots to score exactly nine ticket when it
Speaker 1: was nine. That's my whole story. So I used to
Speaker 1: do it those days. Now I do the full bed
Speaker 1: cast for Vison, but those days I only used to
Speaker 1: do the first half. And so after the first half
Speaker 1: I would I would. I didn't want to travel home
Speaker 1: because I missed the second half. So I'm like, where
Speaker 1: am I going to hang out for the second half?
Speaker 1: This places of Madhouse. Oh, I'll go back with Chrissie
Speaker 1: and Jimmy Vicara and Vitty and I'll watch Super Bowl
Speaker 1: and quiet back there. So I go back there. Remember
Speaker 1: it was twenty eight to three a half time. Famously,
Speaker 1: people the only Super Bowl where people remember a mid
Speaker 1: game score more than they do the final score. So
Speaker 1: it's twenty eight to three, and the Patriots score a
Speaker 1: touchdown to make it twenty eight to nine, and I
Speaker 1: think Gostkowski missed an extra point. If I'm not they
Speaker 1: did not go for two. Yeah, I don't think so,
Speaker 1: I could be wrong, But that's not the point. They
Speaker 1: ended up on nine. And so I'm back there and
Speaker 1: Chrissie has Chris Andrews, who runs the South Point Hotel casino,
Speaker 1: their computer back there, they can look at all their
Speaker 1: liability for any number of their hundreds of props. And
Speaker 1: so all of a sudden, like he was all jovial,
Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden, he like his face
Speaker 1: turns a little like sour, and I'm like, what's wrong?
Speaker 1: Like I know him well enough where I can something's wrong.
Speaker 1: He goes, ah, and you know his face. He goes,
Speaker 1: we really don't want this to end up on the nine.
Speaker 1: And I go why. He goes, let's just say we're
Speaker 1: in for six figures if the Patriots end up on
Speaker 1: the nine. I go, really do I exactly? Yeah. Keep
Speaker 1: in mind, in real time it only ended up being
Speaker 1: fifteen minutes, because the Patriots famously came back and not
Speaker 1: only got off the nine but won the game. But
Speaker 1: for those fifteen minutes of real time, not even football time, Chris,
Speaker 1: he's dying. Back then. I'm like, do I know the
Speaker 1: person who has the nine? He goes, yeah, you do.
Speaker 1: What was the odds? I don't know I tweeted out
Speaker 1: the ticket after it lost. Actually, I was like, man,
Speaker 1: I had a little sweat for a little while. Um,
Speaker 1: I it was pretty high. I don't remember exactly if
Speaker 1: you could check my history common I mean, I mean,
Speaker 1: I guess nine is that you get the field goals.
Speaker 1: But that's about it. Three field goals or a touchdown
Speaker 1: in its extra point and field goal. Right, well, it
Speaker 1: was nine for you know, brief about a time and
Speaker 1: that it wasn't anymore. But that was my Yeah, that
Speaker 1: was I don't think I ever told you that story.
Speaker 1: The So okay, um Todd, do you have a play
Speaker 1: on either the side or total. I mean, I'm not
Speaker 1: gonna play a pre game. I mean, I don't play
Speaker 1: any of the game's pre game pretty much, so why
Speaker 1: would I play this one pre game? I'm gonna play
Speaker 1: it under. I mean, if I had to you forced me,
Speaker 1: I would play the under forty eight and a half
Speaker 1: or I would play the Cincinnati team total under twenty
Speaker 1: one and a half. That's probably the best one that
Speaker 1: I would play, would be the Cincinnati under twenty one
Speaker 1: and a half team total. Why is this night different
Speaker 1: from any other night? Is what you're basically exactly. It's
Speaker 1: a minished ton of kind of first of all monished
Speaker 1: to Okay, well, I wanted to ask, can I ask
Speaker 1: rufus a quick question about props? Whatever? Kind of interesting?
Speaker 1: Um ruff is one of the things. I mean, I
Speaker 1: don't play a lot of props. I've played more props
Speaker 1: this year, but I don't really play a lot of
Speaker 1: props in general. But the the thing that I always
Speaker 1: wonder is if you when you're making, when you're playing
Speaker 1: your props, aren't you aren't they a lot of them
Speaker 1: correlated to what's happening in the game. So can you
Speaker 1: get in a situation where, let's say you've made a
Speaker 1: hundred props, if one team doesn't win, you're gonna lose
Speaker 1: eighty percent of them or something? Does that happen? Or
Speaker 1: is there some non correlation ability for you to have
Speaker 1: so many different props that the result of who would
Speaker 1: win does not really come into effect? And if that
Speaker 1: is the case, If the former is the case, then
Speaker 1: won't you be just rather better betting the teams themselves?
Speaker 1: So that's a really good question. I think it's one
Speaker 1: that's kind of complicated, and I don't know all the
Speaker 1: exact correlations Um. Certainly a lot of the props are
Speaker 1: based on the point spread and the total are and
Speaker 1: so what I guess what the way we anticipate the
Speaker 1: game playing out as a result of that. So, for example,
Speaker 1: the Bengals are four and half point underdog, which means
Speaker 1: um a four and a half pourn underdog on average
Speaker 1: when they have the ball will be trailing by three
Speaker 1: point one points every snap on their average snap will
Speaker 1: be down three four points. I know that sounds like
Speaker 1: a larger number than you'd expect, right, But if you
Speaker 1: think about it, if the line was pick, even if
Speaker 1: the lines pick the average UM, well, the team that
Speaker 1: is pick is going to be trailing on average on
Speaker 1: their snaps because you know, think about the game starts
Speaker 1: at zero zero, team goes up seven. Oh now the
Speaker 1: other teams down seven. They have the ball down seven.
Speaker 1: So because you're getting the ball after the other team does, right. So, um,
Speaker 1: but you're saying in a pick game, they're gonna they're
Speaker 1: gonna be they're gonna be down more than they're up
Speaker 1: when they have the ball. Yeah, both teams will be
Speaker 1: down more than they're up when they have the ball.
Speaker 1: Think about it. If you've never thought about It's kind
Speaker 1: of counterintuitive, but it makes sense because it's you get
Speaker 1: the ball after the other team has that they score
Speaker 1: then you know, anyway, we're getting off track here. Um, yes,
Speaker 1: they're they're definitely things that are correlated, but there's also
Speaker 1: things that are sort of um, and I don't want
Speaker 1: to say anti correlated, but but correlated the other way.
Speaker 1: So for example, if I'm against a team's passing game, Um,
Speaker 1: let's say I was against you know, um, the Bengals
Speaker 1: passing game and against all the Bengals wide receivers. You know, certainly, um,
Speaker 1: you know, if I knew that Jamar Chase had nine
Speaker 1: catches for a hundred and seventy yards, then my expectation
Speaker 1: for Tee Higgins is gonna be less than not knowing that.
Speaker 1: So so there's there's negative correlation there, right, So um,
Speaker 1: they're there. You know, certainly you can get um one
Speaker 1: of these really bad outcomes, um, which basically bad outcome
Speaker 1: for me means things happening that are exciting for the
Speaker 1: average fan. I root for the most boring Super Bowl
Speaker 1: ever typically, but um, most of these um, you know,
Speaker 1: there I bet enough esoteric stuff and that that that
Speaker 1: I feel like you know, even if if the you know,
Speaker 1: unless it's like a crazy offensive game. Um, I'm I'm
Speaker 1: not in that that much trouble. I mean, obviously I
Speaker 1: could still be in trouble, but you know, just but
Speaker 1: but it's not correlated to a huge offensive game. All right.
Speaker 1: Let me let me step in here before you ask
Speaker 1: more questions, Toddles, let's just establish for the audience some
Speaker 1: street grid here for Rufus. I know you downplayed this
Speaker 1: when you are in a numbers game earlier this week.
Speaker 1: But the reason that Rufus is appropriate for the Super Bowl,
Speaker 1: perhaps more than he's he's appropriate every week, but perhaps
Speaker 1: more than anything any other time of year, is because
Speaker 1: this was Super Bowl props. Was when you were back
Speaker 1: with your team back in the day. This was kind
Speaker 1: of your week, This was your thing, right, and you
Speaker 1: made you made out very well doing this. You acknowledged
Speaker 1: you weren't the first person to do this, but you
Speaker 1: were the first person, at least at least to my knowledge,
Speaker 1: that got notoriety for doing that. Is that fair? I
Speaker 1: think that's fair. Yeah. And and do you find that
Speaker 1: the opportunities are fewer and further between, or do you
Speaker 1: think that there's still quite a few of those opportunities. Still,
Speaker 1: I think there's still quite a few opportunities. The opportunities
Speaker 1: are not as large as they used to be, not
Speaker 1: as large, not as large. It's the aren't as big
Speaker 1: as right. You don't have the same gravy you used
Speaker 1: to have in terms of sports book prop openers, So
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot there's books have more surface
Speaker 1: area to defend now, especially with these same game parlays
Speaker 1: and stuff like that, which honestly, I'm sure there's a
Speaker 1: ton of value to be found there. It's it's not
Speaker 1: something I've really looked into. Um, I'm you know, I'm
Speaker 1: at the point where I'm betting props. I would say
Speaker 1: once a year, but I actually bet in the last
Speaker 1: two weeks also, so um so a few times a year,
Speaker 1: just because probably there it's a it's a lot of
Speaker 1: manual work, there's a ton of art to it, um,
Speaker 1: But there are I think opportunities are a little bit different.
Speaker 1: They're smaller, but a lot of it now is betting
Speaker 1: very close to game time after the blick has driven
Speaker 1: up prices. So the public loves betting on things to happen.
Speaker 1: They like betting receivers to go over players to score touchdowns,
Speaker 1: um on a safety, on defensive or special teams touchdown.
Speaker 1: And so the opportunities there, especially with marquee players to
Speaker 1: sort of bet unders close to game time after the
Speaker 1: public is exactly like under receiving yards you think it's
Speaker 1: going to get blown way out it is. I mean,
Speaker 1: of course I think it is. I mean he's averaged
Speaker 1: a hundred and eighteen or hundred and seventeen receiving yards
Speaker 1: per game. Not to interrupt your flow, but that's so
Speaker 1: that's the biggest bit of macro advice we can give,
Speaker 1: right generally speaking, if you're thinking about betting over on
Speaker 1: those kinds of guys and those kind of props, you
Speaker 1: should have already been them. Yeah. And if you if
Speaker 1: you want to bet Cooper cup over, the best time
Speaker 1: to bet it is right now. If you wanted to
Speaker 1: go under, wait as long as you yes, and especially
Speaker 1: so wouldn't you say, because we now have more and
Speaker 1: more states and just this week, right, just not this week,
Speaker 1: but just this past month, New York in Louisiana are
Speaker 1: brand new. This is entire new generations of people that
Speaker 1: do have not bet illegally right, have not bet with
Speaker 1: a local bookie, have not been offshore, who have waited
Speaker 1: for their legal opportunity to bet, and this is their
Speaker 1: first crack at doing this stuff. That's a total that's
Speaker 1: a total overwave of betters. You would imagine if it's
Speaker 1: an unknown, it's an unknown, how much it's gonna affect
Speaker 1: these books pricing, how much they're going to respond and say, oh,
Speaker 1: you know what, we're gonna leave. You know, we know
Speaker 1: that people betting the over, we know we have the
Speaker 1: edge there. Um let him that the over will take
Speaker 1: on liability versus let's say, you know what, this is
Speaker 1: too much liability, let's move this number. Because I think
Speaker 1: the European books um, the DraftKings fan Duels of the
Speaker 1: world bet MGMs, Caesar's um there. I don't know if
Speaker 1: I should call Caesar's European. I don't know, are there,
Speaker 1: um well, we all are Caesars are. But those books
Speaker 1: tend to, especially with prop markets, they tend to be
Speaker 1: less responsive to bets in terms of moving their prices.
Speaker 1: Um and they you know, like, you can bet something,
Speaker 1: I won't move. They just will limit you or something
Speaker 1: like that. I don't know. Um versus books in Vegas,
Speaker 1: you bet they move the line, you bet, they move
Speaker 1: the line, and so yeah, you know, they obviously are
Speaker 1: moving lines, but it's it's less it's less responsive. They're
Speaker 1: more like, Okay, we have our algorithms being we're sticking
Speaker 1: with this a little more. Yeah, whereas Vegas reacts pretty dramatically. Okay,
Speaker 1: So by the way, I would, I would question Gilly
Speaker 1: whether in New York is going to be that big
Speaker 1: a deal. I think. I mean, when I lived in
Speaker 1: New York, everybody was betting already. So it's like now, granted,
Speaker 1: Louisiana maybe, but in New York, it seems to me
Speaker 1: that everybody was already betting. Now maybe they're gonna all
Speaker 1: bet legally legally, What is the what's the point of otherwise, Oh,
Speaker 1: I thought you meant that they that they wouldn't have
Speaker 1: had access to this kind of stuff in the past.
Speaker 1: I'm saying that the the prop markets that we're talking
Speaker 1: about that are largely legal, right that we're talking about,
Speaker 1: that they could be affected an entirely more dramatic way
Speaker 1: that they ever have been before. I don't think that's
Speaker 1: a nutty statement. I didn't say it was nutty. I
Speaker 1: just think that the theoretically that I think a lot
Speaker 1: more people were exposed in New York than you would
Speaker 1: think otherwise. But maybe I'm wrong. No, No, I wasn't
Speaker 1: trying to be naive about the fact that they didn't
Speaker 1: find other ways to bet, or maybe they crossed the
Speaker 1: state line in some cases. But I'm saying there is
Speaker 1: a large group of that of that population. Let's say
Speaker 1: if it's I mean, they just made one point six
Speaker 1: billion in legalized betting in a three week span, or
Speaker 1: at one point six billion and handle in New York.
Speaker 1: It just destroyed New Jersey in three weeks. How much
Speaker 1: of that was the free play promos? Though? Maybe that's
Speaker 1: that's the big question. That's a big question. But it's
Speaker 1: also also it's also not a standard Sunday of football either.
Speaker 1: Imagine they have sixteen games to bet on. What that
Speaker 1: number is going to be like? And I guess all
Speaker 1: I'm saying Todd is but Meltzer. Meltzer made a very
Speaker 1: good point that per capita was actually lower than which
Speaker 1: is interesting, which is now online. I just mentioned so
Speaker 1: that So what I'm saying is of that of that
Speaker 1: huge swath of influx, there's got to be a bunch
Speaker 1: of that a huge percentage of that as people who
Speaker 1: have just we don't have to. I'm with you, I'm
Speaker 1: I'm not arguing with you. I'm just I'm just by
Speaker 1: the way. I do have a pre flop bed. I
Speaker 1: have the bagels at plus four and a half. I
Speaker 1: don't It's not a big bed. I took it. Could
Speaker 1: I see the Rams crushing him? I could go to
Speaker 1: see the Rams winning. I could, But Burrow has shown
Speaker 1: me enough despite his poor offensive line. I'll take the point.
Speaker 1: So I do have that bed going. Just to be
Speaker 1: clear on my side, Uh, your favorite prop bet, so
Speaker 1: have you? So you're waiting for a lot now, a
Speaker 1: lot more than you used to rufus, you're waiting to
Speaker 1: bed of the ones you've made so far? How many
Speaker 1: have you made so far? As first of all, Um, well,
Speaker 1: what percentage of the total that you will make have
Speaker 1: you made so far? How about that? How many will
Speaker 1: you have a kickoff? How many? I'm trying to think
Speaker 1: more in terms of volume, UM, I would say I
Speaker 1: probably Well, I've only made about a third of the
Speaker 1: bets that planned to make a third of the money down, Yeah,
Speaker 1: which is third very different than what it used to be.
Speaker 1: Very different. It used to be like eight was down
Speaker 1: by this point. Wow, So things have changed, it is. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean I think I could get of my ev
Speaker 1: if I just waited until Super Bowl weekend of bet.
Speaker 1: When did you figure out that that change needed to
Speaker 1: be made? Well, it's not that the change needed to
Speaker 1: be made, it's just that there weren't as many opportunities
Speaker 1: early to get and so I've realized that over the
Speaker 1: last few years. You know, I might bet something. I
Speaker 1: think it's a great bet on you know, the when
Speaker 1: the lines come out and you know, game damn getting
Speaker 1: the same line or better after the you know. So
Speaker 1: I'm basically waiting on all my unders and except for
Speaker 1: like sort of the niche markets like first reception length
Speaker 1: or something like that, where I don't think that's going
Speaker 1: to get a ton of public action. But in terms
Speaker 1: of the bigger player markets, you know, the Cooper Cup,
Speaker 1: receiving yards for the game, Cooper Cup, police score touchdown,
Speaker 1: I'm waiting on those. You have a Joe Mixing bet
Speaker 1: that you made, though, correct or yeah, I bet Joe
Speaker 1: Mixing under receiving yards and a half. Would you get it?
Speaker 1: I think we got anywhere between twenty and a half
Speaker 1: and twenty six and a half. And you're thinking, all
Speaker 1: that is, why do I like the bet? Ye, Well,
Speaker 1: my numbers like it. I haven't projected lower. Um. The reason,
Speaker 1: I guess a big part of that. You know, he's
Speaker 1: he has been a much more active part of the
Speaker 1: receiving game the last few weeks. I'm actually actually against
Speaker 1: the Chiefs maybe not quite as much. I have to
Speaker 1: like see what that number was there, But um, I
Speaker 1: think there is a bit of recency bias three for
Speaker 1: twenty seven last week, actually, Um, but they have there
Speaker 1: are those, I guess with the Chiefs game. Notwithstanding, have
Speaker 1: been games where there have been either positive or neutral
Speaker 1: game scripts for Cincinnati. They've been UM in the lead
Speaker 1: or it's been a close game, whereas UM. You look
Speaker 1: in the mid season stretch where they're involved in some
Speaker 1: blowouts and uh, he was much less of a factor
Speaker 1: in the receiving game. And if you look at it, um,
Speaker 1: his his participation receiving game is very very direct. We
Speaker 1: linked to what the score differential is and what the
Speaker 1: game script is. So UM in obvious passing situations, b
Speaker 1: Ryan's in so mixing, mixing gets his receptions and his
Speaker 1: receiving yards when the Bengals are basically leading or the
Speaker 1: game is very close, when they're trailing, Yeah, when they're
Speaker 1: when they're trailing, and you know, when they're trailing, p
Speaker 1: Ryan is the guy that is much more involved in
Speaker 1: the receiving game. So there you go, and probably much
Speaker 1: more involved in the game period because they're not exactly.
Speaker 1: But it's interesting because you think, like, okay, if if
Speaker 1: if a team is trailing, you know, they're going to
Speaker 1: be throwing the ball more running back is gonna be
Speaker 1: running back gets receptions from that. But it's actually kind
Speaker 1: of the opposite with the Bengals, Like I mean, at
Speaker 1: least for mixing, they're up Mixing is going to be
Speaker 1: involved in the passing game. This is why it's so
Speaker 1: interesting now with the end game props, where I find
Speaker 1: that you know when you're getting when you're looking at
Speaker 1: the end the Obviously, the the end game is huge
Speaker 1: for the line and it's also huge for the props.
Speaker 1: So if you know, if a team is at head
Speaker 1: one to three, you know and the running back, your
Speaker 1: your primary running back has say fifteen yards, they're gonna
Speaker 1: make him only like say thirty five for the full game.
Speaker 1: Because they know he's not going to be running the
Speaker 1: ball like you just said. And the reason I brought
Speaker 1: it up now, it's just because you you had that
Speaker 1: whole discussion about mixing mix. It will be out of
Speaker 1: the game because the Bengals can't run the ball down
Speaker 1: three and the third quarter. So and you see a
Speaker 1: similar thing with the passing yards. The passing yards number
Speaker 1: goes way up for a team that's down a locked
Speaker 1: they figure, oh my gosh, she's gonna they're gonna have
Speaker 1: to throw all the time. Now, sometimes they overinflated. I
Speaker 1: haven't been noticing, for instance, when a team's losing big
Speaker 1: in the first half, say twenty one three is a
Speaker 1: perfect example. Late in the first half of a guy
Speaker 1: has fifty passing yards, his number will be like two sixty,
Speaker 1: So they think he's gonna get two ten passing yards
Speaker 1: in the second half because you're gonna be chucking it
Speaker 1: every play. So I mean, whether that's true or not
Speaker 1: in a particular game, obviously you have to take each
Speaker 1: one do an accoun but it is kind of interesting
Speaker 1: how the the game flow is so much of a
Speaker 1: part of these props. So I think that was really
Speaker 1: interesting what you were just telling us about do you
Speaker 1: do any of games like that? Now I'm too, I'm stressed, eating, stress,
Speaker 1: drinking at that point. At that point, just trying to
Speaker 1: log tickets that I bet right before the game started
Speaker 1: to how will where like if you have what percentage
Speaker 1: of of if you bet thirty, can you keep track
Speaker 1: of all of them in your head? Or you just
Speaker 1: focused on a few of them the ones that are
Speaker 1: the most outlay for you know, I mean basically every
Speaker 1: play like we'll have we'll have like a drunk grading
Speaker 1: sheet open where we can kind of grade, and there'll
Speaker 1: be many mistakes found the next day. But basically you
Speaker 1: know where some of us will be grading as things
Speaker 1: happen like oh ship, we've lost that language happen what
Speaker 1: you'll you'll figure it out the next day. Some will
Speaker 1: be mistakes well yeah, yeah, I mean we go through
Speaker 1: our tickets one by one and make sure and people
Speaker 1: double check everybody else has taken that kind of thing. Like,
Speaker 1: I mean, I would feel like you're probably the more
Speaker 1: reliable of the budge. I would have been about that
Speaker 1: so much. So much of the props, though, can be
Speaker 1: can really come down to like one situation like, for instance,
Speaker 1: of a team is driving with two thirty five left
Speaker 1: in the first half, and they don't get the first down,
Speaker 1: and therefore the other team is going to get another
Speaker 1: chance now at the end of the first half, and
Speaker 1: they're going to be throwing the ball. That's an extra
Speaker 1: you know, fifty or sixty yards of passing, possibly for
Speaker 1: a particular passer or for those receivers. So it's very
Speaker 1: interesting how the game flow is huge, which I mean
Speaker 1: or do most books now offer this todd I'm not
Speaker 1: trying to be naive, but here in Vegas we don't
Speaker 1: have it. Off course, don't have it in many cas
Speaker 1: Regular season has regular season NFL has in game props
Speaker 1: fan old draft kings. Now, depending on who you are,
Speaker 1: you might not be able to bet them, like I'm
Speaker 1: not really able to bet them at Draft Kings, but
Speaker 1: the the you know you can if you're just a
Speaker 1: regular recreational better you can bet all these things in
Speaker 1: regular games. And if so, of course you can do
Speaker 1: it for the Super Bowl. But even regular games have it,
Speaker 1: you know, all these games have it all right. Here
Speaker 1: are the props that I have bet already. I'm not
Speaker 1: sure if I'm adding more. A couple of these. A
Speaker 1: few of these might not even be there anymore, and
Speaker 1: in fact, I'll update them for you. One was no
Speaker 1: touchback on the opening kickoff. This was a complete intel
Speaker 1: kind of bet so back in the day with this,
Speaker 1: I used to go through on shows. Oh, this is
Speaker 1: the percentage of times this kicker kicked in the end
Speaker 1: zone and resulted in touchback. And this is the kind
Speaker 1: of times percentage of times it was deferred on kickoffs,
Speaker 1: that kind of thing. Pat McAfee had this podcast last year.
Speaker 1: He kicked in the Super Bowl when he was with
Speaker 1: the Indianapolis Colts when they played the Saints. Right, but
Speaker 1: he did the kickoff they did the opening? Was was
Speaker 1: he there? Opening? Was he the kickoff kicker? And he
Speaker 1: for thirty at least I believe that's the case. Yeah,
Speaker 1: now you're now you're having me confused. But I believe
Speaker 1: that's the way for thirty. Uh. You know what what
Speaker 1: he basically said was during a regular season game, opening kickoffs,
Speaker 1: the kickers get to mess around with the football for
Speaker 1: about thirty minutes. They get to wear it in, they
Speaker 1: get to kick it, they beat it around, and the
Speaker 1: ball by the time the game starts is you know
Speaker 1: tenderized if you will, that's my word, not his. In
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl that does not take place. You do
Speaker 1: not let me finish, and you'll get the whole story.
Speaker 1: So so you so basically you don't get to mess
Speaker 1: around with the football and when you show up for
Speaker 1: the opening kickoff, because their whole point with this kick
Speaker 1: is to just send the ball into the Hall of Fame.
Speaker 1: So you just show up. You didn't get to mess
Speaker 1: with the ball for thirty minutes. And he says it's
Speaker 1: like kicking a brick and so um. Then as soon
Speaker 1: as the play is over, they package the ball and
Speaker 1: they send it to Kim right that or they package
Speaker 1: it up to to be sent to Canton and so so, yes,
Speaker 1: twenty six of the last twenty eight Super Bowls have
Speaker 1: resulted in no touchback. Now, some of those were back
Speaker 1: when they kicked off from a different yard line most
Speaker 1: of them, most of them, but eight of the last
Speaker 1: ten no touch back from the current yard marker. For so,
Speaker 1: so that's the story. And so by the way, like
Speaker 1: with Harrison Butker, he told this last year before the
Speaker 1: Chiefs Buck Super Bowl, Harrison Bucker and was in that game.
Speaker 1: So it was like plus two seventy to not be
Speaker 1: a touchback. Now it was only like it was anywhere
Speaker 1: between like plus one plus one sixty. And my argument
Speaker 1: was anything in plus money based on that kind of
Speaker 1: intel is still probably a good bet. Now it's a
Speaker 1: coin flip at William Hill, I wouldn't bet it anymore
Speaker 1: because if Evan McPherson kicks it, he could catch it. It
Speaker 1: It could go into the end zone for all I know.
Speaker 1: But when it was plus money, if you can still
Speaker 1: find it plus money, I would bet it no touch back. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean this is you know, I think I think
Speaker 1: I laid a price on on it to be a
Speaker 1: touch back without that intel earlier on. But that I've
Speaker 1: heard this, I'm getting off. This reminds me of the
Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts versus the Chicago Bears. If you remember correctly,
Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears had a guy named Devon Hester on
Speaker 1: the team. I went to Vegas. I was living in
Speaker 1: l A. I went to Vegas um to play for
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, and I made one or two prop beets.
Speaker 1: One of them was that the Bears would never lead
Speaker 1: in the game. I think it was like plus one
Speaker 1: seventy the Bears will never lead in the game, and
Speaker 1: I'm thinking the Bears had Rex Grossman at the quarterback position,
Speaker 1: I had Hayton Manning at the quarterback position. I thought
Speaker 1: there was a very good chance the Bears would never lead.
Speaker 1: I also thought the Colts wouldn't be stupid enough to
Speaker 1: kick it to Devon Hester when he had only returned
Speaker 1: about five thousand kicks for touchdowns that year. Well, guess what.
Speaker 1: They decided to kick it to Devon Hester and then
Speaker 1: got destroyed the rest of the game. So I was
Speaker 1: a very unhappy camper that day about the opening. That
Speaker 1: one that one lost quick. Uh. The other one is
Speaker 1: I laid this is not for everybody, but I laid
Speaker 1: minus three thirty on there would not be a missed
Speaker 1: extra point in this game. Uh. Evan McPherson and Matt
Speaker 1: Gay combined this year postseason and and regular season one
Speaker 1: oh three for one oh six, one oh three out
Speaker 1: of one oh six on their extra points, and that's
Speaker 1: plus rate. Um. I know there's more math to it
Speaker 1: than making it just this simple, but even at a
Speaker 1: minus three thirty price, which converts to about seventy six,
Speaker 1: that's still a good bet. To me. Minus three sort
Speaker 1: of indoors have you been to that stadium, talk, it's
Speaker 1: kind of like a cardboard. I've been there. Look, I
Speaker 1: was there, and I was cold like it was. It was.
Speaker 1: It was freaking cold in there, like it was. I
Speaker 1: was there for the Chiefs Chargers game, which is an
Speaker 1: incredible game. By the way, Was that the one that
Speaker 1: was delayed? One of them was delayed? Yeah, Monday, that football.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I was delayed in getting there because
Speaker 1: of l A traffic, So I got there late in
Speaker 1: the second literally a storm landed on top of sofa. No, No,
Speaker 1: this wasn't that one. I wish this was the game
Speaker 1: when it was fourth down at the times and they
Speaker 1: kept going for it, right, Yeah, I was right. It's
Speaker 1: smart coaching on both sides, and and everybody was like,
Speaker 1: why don't they just kick field goals? Exactly that game,
Speaker 1: But it was I remember also looking at the I
Speaker 1: don't know what, what do do you call the band or
Speaker 1: the ribbon on the on the top of the upright,
Speaker 1: it was moving. It was moving a little bit so
Speaker 1: because you, I mean, the ends are open a little bit.
Speaker 1: You're it's it's a canopy. So I think temperature, I mean,
Speaker 1: temperature has an impact. Although I looked at the weather.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be expected, it's gonna be seventy one. It's
Speaker 1: but it's not. If it was fifty degrees, then that
Speaker 1: would totally impact kickoffs and extra points. By the way,
Speaker 1: what about the one that's minus five hundred that the
Speaker 1: team will differ? I saw that this even got a
Speaker 1: regular news story in Yahoo. There's nothing more than there's
Speaker 1: no better free money bet. Then the team will defer
Speaker 1: minus five hundred or it's it's somehow awarded that the
Speaker 1: team will you know, whoever wins the coin toss will
Speaker 1: elect to defer or something something to the effect. And
Speaker 1: it's minus five and it doesn't Well, no, it's too
Speaker 1: it's too it's too low because every team differs when
Speaker 1: they don't. Almost every team deffers when they win the
Speaker 1: when they win the coin toss. That actually every team defers.
Speaker 1: Yeah I didn't know that, Yeah really, yeah, almost, it's
Speaker 1: about it's something like seven out of I didn't know. Yeah, yeah, everybody.
Speaker 1: The first it used to be Bruce arians used to
Speaker 1: not deffer, but even he defers. Now, So do you
Speaker 1: make any prop bets? Um? I made just a couple,
Speaker 1: but not nothing made you just like rams more first downs. Um,
Speaker 1: there's a couple other ones, but I'm not I'm not
Speaker 1: well enough versed on the props. Two tell you you
Speaker 1: should be following me on the props. Here is my
Speaker 1: one sort of p s A every year that we
Speaker 1: do on the Super Bowl show. And we've done this
Speaker 1: for over a decade now. When when you ask bookmakers,
Speaker 1: what is the prop that most trips up the public?
Speaker 1: Longtime listeners to the megapod know where I'm going with this, rufus,
Speaker 1: I'm curious your thoughts on this. Everybody offers you know
Speaker 1: what I'm you know about today? That's the one so
Speaker 1: three unanswered so the casual better And again, if you're
Speaker 1: new to this, you'll see this prop. Will a team
Speaker 1: score three unanswered not including extra points? Right, Well, they
Speaker 1: have three unanswered scores, and so the the yes is
Speaker 1: like minus two and the no is about plus one seventy,
Speaker 1: And the average better will look at that and'll be
Speaker 1: like three unanswered scores, the no is plus one seventy.
Speaker 1: My god, these are two really great teams. How is
Speaker 1: the no plus one seventy? And I'm totally betting that.
Speaker 1: But the truth is that it happens all the time
Speaker 1: four unanswered scores, it correctly flips. But three unanswered scores
Speaker 1: and that is actually priced appropriately. So that's the yeah,
Speaker 1: that prop is is is correctly priced, and so people
Speaker 1: shouldn't go nuts betting the no all that it could hit.
Speaker 1: But it's not like there's value on it as as
Speaker 1: it sort of meets the eye kind of thing. But
Speaker 1: see that's a that's another one of these correlated kind
Speaker 1: of situations because I'm sure in games that there are
Speaker 1: more one sided games, there's probably more of that three
Speaker 1: in a row thing happening. So that's I just find
Speaker 1: a lot of the props to be, like, you know,
Speaker 1: very very correlated to game. Am I wrong about that?
Speaker 1: Rufus No? I mean you're right that obviously a blowout
Speaker 1: it's more likely. But even in a closer game, even
Speaker 1: in a game it's a pick, it's still it's still
Speaker 1: very likely because and think about like you had, think
Speaker 1: about Bengals Chiefs, right, one team has it, takes a lead,
Speaker 1: the other comes back. That kind of thing happens a lot.
Speaker 1: And what's interesting is that there's higher the total. The
Speaker 1: more chances there are for three unanswered scores, you have
Speaker 1: more opportunities. But at the same time, the higher the total,
Speaker 1: the the less independent who uh each score is. So
Speaker 1: you know, because interesting, right, it's it's it's sort of
Speaker 1: these conflicting things, right because you score, then the other team.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's less likely you're going to have a
Speaker 1: team that doesn't score for a few possessions a good point,
Speaker 1: but I thought of it that way. Yeah, that's that's interesting.
Speaker 1: The rivers. Do you have any aboard you wanted to
Speaker 1: share that you've done already or is that the only
Speaker 1: one that bix it? Would um any other? I mean sure,
Speaker 1: Like here, you guys talk right now and I'll find
Speaker 1: something that well, let me let me do my exact
Speaker 1: I'll give you. I'll give you another one that somebody
Speaker 1: gave me that that is good. This one, uh, the
Speaker 1: two minute warning will land exactly on two minutes is
Speaker 1: one that a very respected person uh told me to
Speaker 1: bet and it was it's I think it's like minus
Speaker 1: to seventy five minus two hundred and one of the
Speaker 1: halfs and minus two and the other half. Um, I
Speaker 1: don't know. I don't know anything about that one because
Speaker 1: I don't pay attention to that. But they seem to
Speaker 1: think it's it's a really good one. That is a
Speaker 1: good bet because you you just sort of like in
Speaker 1: your mind's eye, you can already think of how many
Speaker 1: times does it you know, it does a play go
Speaker 1: past it and land on like one fifty seven or
Speaker 1: one fifty six. It seems like way way rarer than
Speaker 1: that betting line indicates. I need, like, yeah, that's an
Speaker 1: interesting one. So you would think it would land maybe
Speaker 1: say twenty of the time, as opposed to you know,
Speaker 1: where it's being priced more like maybe not even Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: I think that's a good bet. Yeah. I'm literally like
Speaker 1: scrambling to query this right now just so I can see. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's interesting to me. I know, I think he's right.
Speaker 1: I think that's a very good bet. So here's what
Speaker 1: Rufus is looking at up and before he provides with
Speaker 1: another bet. Here, So here, my here, my thoughts on
Speaker 1: the exotics, if you will, which are available more offshore
Speaker 1: than they are. But everyone on this bag of pot
Speaker 1: through the years wants to hear about this. So Mickey Guyton,
Speaker 1: who I was unfamiliar with, is a country singer. She
Speaker 1: is singing the national anthem, uh, the national anthem. The
Speaker 1: only evidence of her singing at national anthem on YouTube
Speaker 1: is is she did one in front of It was
Speaker 1: in Washington, d C. It was in front of some
Speaker 1: very elaborate orchestration, maybe even the National sem any orchestra
Speaker 1: for all I know, And it was done at some
Speaker 1: event and she sprinted through it like she just it
Speaker 1: was like she was double parked outside or something. She
Speaker 1: didn't like one. I mean the whole video was one,
Speaker 1: so it was under that, right, So okay, I heard
Speaker 1: could be So the first Super Bowl prop that came
Speaker 1: out was at nine seconds, so one. So you would
Speaker 1: think you'd be like, oh, well, she's got to be
Speaker 1: an under then, right, No. I immediately thought to myself,
Speaker 1: I'm like, there is no possible way that she is
Speaker 1: going to sing anything quicker, Like, no way, you know,
Speaker 1: as quick as she did in that video, she's gonna
Speaker 1: absolutely milk it more than that. Ninety five seconds is
Speaker 1: an unbelievably low number for a national anthem. So I said,
Speaker 1: it's a oh like around two minutes, like she give
Speaker 1: take a few seconds. So I said, yeah, I said,
Speaker 1: over on this, and now I'm told that it's already
Speaker 1: at one forty. So apparently everybody else had the same
Speaker 1: exact thinking that I did. So now I'm not sure
Speaker 1: how how much I would bet that anymore. Right, Like
Speaker 1: it's getting I'm playing in game. I'm doing the game,
Speaker 1: but in gaming vanthem uh. And then and then the
Speaker 1: the other one that we've made hay on here through
Speaker 1: the years is and I'm not sure how many places
Speaker 1: you can find this on because I find this a
Speaker 1: little scarcer this year than in previous years, just on
Speaker 1: my sort of anecdotal look. But I know like a
Speaker 1: place like uh, the old bow Dogs of the World, Bovada,
Speaker 1: right that I think they still have this. If you
Speaker 1: can find what song will be played first at the
Speaker 1: halftime show, that's always the big one. We've hit this
Speaker 1: many years. Um it is again, It's Dr Dre, It's Eminem,
Speaker 1: It's Mary J. Blige, is Missy Elliott, it is Kendrick Lamar.
Speaker 1: It's a whole hodgepodge of hip hop. It is it
Speaker 1: like everybody gets a song or guess I guess it's
Speaker 1: like people don't even know what's gonna happen. Yeah, so
Speaker 1: you know, my I have some history with these artists
Speaker 1: in terms of following their careers. To me, there are
Speaker 1: only two candidates, only two candidates for for what the
Speaker 1: first song will be? Uh, and there's only the only
Speaker 1: two possible candidates on those are are California Love, which
Speaker 1: was Dre's biggest which he had with Tupac and obviously
Speaker 1: the super Bowl is being played in California. And then
Speaker 1: the other one is Eminem's big hit from eight Mile
Speaker 1: called Lose Yourself, which is the you only get one shot.
Speaker 1: People know that song, right, one opportunity. What about California Girls?
Speaker 1: Isn't that? It no idea what you're talking about? Alright?
Speaker 1: So um so to me, it's only between those two solves.
Speaker 1: One of those is going to be the opener and
Speaker 1: one of those is going to be the clothes. Today
Speaker 1: on a numbers game, I said Californy. I didn't. I
Speaker 1: didn't mention lose yourself, but I said, I said, it's
Speaker 1: either California Love or and before I got to say
Speaker 1: lose yourself, Crack Bill Crackerburger goes, I'll tell you right now,
Speaker 1: it's not California Love. So my betting advice based on
Speaker 1: that reaction from Crack is that Eminem's Lose Yourself will
Speaker 1: be the first song played on the Super Bowl half
Speaker 1: do you get multiple choice on that they give gives
Speaker 1: you They typically give you anywhere between five to eight songs.
Speaker 1: So lose yourself, Rufus. I know you do things by
Speaker 1: the numbers, but can you can you argue with that
Speaker 1: unbelievable Rufus model had Rufus model had love yourself? My
Speaker 1: mom loves itself too much? Sometimes the problem Rufus Rufus
Speaker 1: model has a lot of love in it. You know,
Speaker 1: I like I like I like models, and I like
Speaker 1: loving myself. Who doesn't? So yeah, you know, I'm just
Speaker 1: gonna leave it at that. So there it is, lose yourself,
Speaker 1: Lose yourself. Eminem that's gonna be your first song. And
Speaker 1: I oh, that's a Ladies and Gentleman star of last
Speaker 1: week's megapod Uh Ladies and Gentleman Brian Ortega's with us. Brian,
Speaker 1: you were phenomenal on can we Brian? Can we hear
Speaker 1: you on the air or you're just talking to our
Speaker 1: ear talking to her here? Okay? So Brian Ortega, who
Speaker 1: was the star of last week's Man's Guide to Sin
Speaker 1: City The Vegas Lifestyle podcasts into my ear, saying that
Speaker 1: California lovel will be the last song. Is that what
Speaker 1: you're saying? Okay, so we're we're consensus here, California Love
Speaker 1: is gonna be the last song. Lose Yourself is going
Speaker 1: to be the first song. So lose Yourself as the
Speaker 1: answer to the first song. Uh, and we steak megapod reputationally.
Speaker 1: But the way we don't have that in Pennsylvania. I
Speaker 1: think that's off of this stuff is down rufus. Did
Speaker 1: you do the query about the two minute warry thing? Um?
Speaker 1: I tried to. I feel like I messed it up somehow.
Speaker 1: How do how does would figure? I'm literally looking at
Speaker 1: the play by play and just saying, Okay, is there
Speaker 1: a play where like variable where the place started exactly
Speaker 1: two minutes or seconds left in the second quarter? But
Speaker 1: I think I didn't need to get rid of penalties
Speaker 1: and ship like that. Okay, do you have one more
Speaker 1: proper so you want to share with us? Um? I
Speaker 1: mean I have a lot of propers, I bet, but
Speaker 1: the question is at least spill um. Okay, I'll share
Speaker 1: an over I bet, actually, because that's something that's been
Speaker 1: that basically, UM. I like Van Jefferson over two and
Speaker 1: a half passing receptions at plus one ten. Okay, yeah, um,
Speaker 1: and he's you go ahead, no, he I guess his
Speaker 1: I mean his role has been Um, well, he's still
Speaker 1: gotten a lot of snaps and ran a lot of
Speaker 1: routes the last few weeks. He just hasn't had a
Speaker 1: lot of catches and Odell Beckham has gotten a lot
Speaker 1: more catches than he has. But Odell Beckham is basically
Speaker 1: in the Robert Woods role. Um. I mean statistically they're
Speaker 1: sort of roles are fairly indistinguishable. Um, at least last
Speaker 1: few weeks. Um what Robert Woods did the first nine
Speaker 1: weeks this season when he was healthy. So UM, I
Speaker 1: don't think I mean Van Jefferson's role has certainly, I
Speaker 1: mean his his target share has decreased a lot in
Speaker 1: recent weeks. But he he was banged up a little bit.
Speaker 1: I mean, I know that McVeigh said that there was
Speaker 1: the week against the Niners that Ben Scaroni was in
Speaker 1: like for a potential game winning drive, um in like
Speaker 1: crunch time instead of Van Jefferson. And he he said
Speaker 1: when asked about it, Um, McVeigh said, oh, you know,
Speaker 1: we were just trying, like we like Scaronik, We're trying
Speaker 1: it out. But I mean I think, you know, I
Speaker 1: don't buy that exactly. I think that I think he
Speaker 1: was banged up a little bit. I mean, his his
Speaker 1: snap counts are back up the last two weeks, and
Speaker 1: so I think that maybe there's a bit of an
Speaker 1: overaction of those um sort of weeks where he wasn't
Speaker 1: really involved as much. And this is all correctly based
Speaker 1: on it snap counts and more specifically targets. Yeah. Yeah,
Speaker 1: So I look at right, I project out snapcounts and
Speaker 1: routes run, and then I projected out of guy's target
Speaker 1: it's her route run, okay, and then whether they got
Speaker 1: to catch the ball orvan Jefferson over two and a
Speaker 1: half receptions? Yeah, okay, I like that, which he has
Speaker 1: not gone over two and a half in and even
Speaker 1: his last four games. You get plus actually haven't gone
Speaker 1: over a lot recently. But sorry, plus money plus money, Okay,
Speaker 1: I like it. Rufus flora is your want to give hate?
Speaker 1: I hate over? So this was like this is an
Speaker 1: over that you know, I I just like, I plug
Speaker 1: my nose and I bet the over, and I don't
Speaker 1: bet that much on overs because I feel like, you know,
Speaker 1: if they lose, I just feel like very bad about myself.
Speaker 1: Just to be clear, you're not the guy at the
Speaker 1: super Bowl party who, while everybody else is enjoying themselves,
Speaker 1: you're in the corner on a white board trying to
Speaker 1: figure out the results of your brother. That's not you.
Speaker 1: You are fully immersed in the in the drinking and
Speaker 1: eating of a Super Bowl, and you'll worry about the
Speaker 1: props afterwards. I'm worried about the problems while I'm drinking
Speaker 1: and eating. Well, okay, I just wanted to make it's
Speaker 1: sort of a combination. It's it's it's basically yes, okay,
Speaker 1: but I mean a white computer screen. Why is Rufus
Speaker 1: so annoyed in the corner He's trying to figure out
Speaker 1: if fan Jefferson is gonna get a third catch. I'm
Speaker 1: drinking and eating during every football game, so if you're
Speaker 1: wondering about that, But here's here's the question I have
Speaker 1: for you. Um, did this just happened? The seventies Sixers
Speaker 1: acquire James Harden? Oh my goodness, it happened. Wait let's
Speaker 1: do the Wait a minute, So it did happen, So listen,
Speaker 1: you have there's a brief basketball aside, so listen. On
Speaker 1: Primetime Action I'm saying. I'm telling Kelly Bilin and Matt Brown,
Speaker 1: I'm like, how real do you think it's Hardened and
Speaker 1: Simmons thing is? And those two guys basically laugh me
Speaker 1: off the show. They're like, it's less than zero percent chance, Gill.
Speaker 1: And then last night Matt conceded it was a three
Speaker 1: percent chance. It is happening. Seventy Sixers acquired James Harden
Speaker 1: in a trade for Ben Simmons. Nets also get Seth Curry,
Speaker 1: Andre Drummond and two first round picks. Did the did
Speaker 1: the Sixers just give up everything to get Hardened? Good? Lord?
Speaker 1: Hard is damaged Goods? I mean, he's never been a
Speaker 1: winner anyways, why would you want him away? That's what
Speaker 1: I'm saying. With his NBA stuff, don't laugh me off
Speaker 1: the show. This ship always happens. Wow, watch college basketball.
Speaker 1: The NBA is no betting association. Um, can I ask you,
Speaker 1: if it's a quick question, what he thinks about? Okay, so,
Speaker 1: so the so? The the narrative obviously of this game.
Speaker 1: I guess the biggest narrative, and I don't watch all
Speaker 1: the regular sports talk show nonsense, but I would say
Speaker 1: probably the regular narrative is can the can the Bengals
Speaker 1: block the l a Rams fierce pass rush because they
Speaker 1: don't seem to be able to block anybody's pastors. If so,
Speaker 1: is it possible that um Burrow will throw the ball
Speaker 1: quicker and meaning have more routes to maybe quick dump
Speaker 1: off passes to say a tight end or something like that,
Speaker 1: or whoever, right, whatever you would whatever answer you would
Speaker 1: have to the fact we can't block these guys and
Speaker 1: we have to get rid of the ball quickly. Do
Speaker 1: you think that that is going to have a big
Speaker 1: effect on on the props, especially for the receivers. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think it could, and and and maybe a little
Speaker 1: yea more more more running the ball too. I think
Speaker 1: that's you know, if they get if they get behind there,
Speaker 1: they could be in trouble. Though, given the fact that
Speaker 1: you're right, they cannot block and the Rams certainly have
Speaker 1: every fearsome pass rushing I have I have I have
Speaker 1: bur projected to be sacked three point five five times.
Speaker 1: That is a lot. That is a very large number.
Speaker 1: How many three point five five? Wow? Yeah? So uh,
Speaker 1: you know, I'm not the XS and os guy, Todd,
Speaker 1: but I can see that happening for sure. The thing
Speaker 1: is I don't know. I mean, the whole point here
Speaker 1: is like coaches come up with game plans that they
Speaker 1: don't expect the other teams to be ready for and
Speaker 1: all that stuff. So you know, if if every team
Speaker 1: knew what the other team exactly was going to do,
Speaker 1: then UM, well then it would be a lot easier
Speaker 1: and they would not be very good coach. So I
Speaker 1: also heard also heard as to talk about this on
Speaker 1: his radio show about the UM odds on the yards
Speaker 1: are not exactly as they should be for a four
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite, something to the effect that
Speaker 1: the Bengals were a little more inflated. I think I
Speaker 1: have that right. Too many sected, I mean I someone
Speaker 1: told them about this too. Someone told me that as
Speaker 1: I said said this, I don't know what that means
Speaker 1: exactly though, that like somehow the people too many yards.
Speaker 1: But the correlation he was saying like this, there are
Speaker 1: correlation yards, UM that a certain like a four and
Speaker 1: a half point favorite means that that team is going
Speaker 1: to get, say twenty five more yards in the game.
Speaker 1: I forget exactly what he said. Something that times Okay,
Speaker 1: you know, oftentimes the team that loses the game, UM
Speaker 1: has more yards because it's it's especially if you're trailing,
Speaker 1: you're gonna get a lot of a lot more yards
Speaker 1: but fewer points. Right, So I'm thinking he's talking about
Speaker 1: on average, but I guess I don't know exactly what
Speaker 1: he said, so it doesn't really make a lot of sense.
Speaker 1: First off. Also, it's team specific. I don't know if
Speaker 1: he's talking about yards for the team overall, like a
Speaker 1: prop like how many yards will the rams or anglic
Speaker 1: or is it just like the individual player props and
Speaker 1: adding those together, because I mean, we will say that
Speaker 1: he had some kind of correlation to both of those. Okay, Okay,
Speaker 1: I hear you. I'll have to listen to it. Maybe
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't know how to where we're the radio,
Speaker 1: where to find the radio. It was on like some
Speaker 1: Fox Sports thing that I listened to for a couple
Speaker 1: of minutes, and he was talking about it. I found
Speaker 1: it pretty interesting that was which one is specific? That one? No,
Speaker 1: it wasn't a proper he was he was talking about
Speaker 1: forensic was talking about the the correlation of the point
Speaker 1: spread to the yards is awful a little bit for
Speaker 1: one team or the other, meaning a four and a
Speaker 1: half point favorite should be a certain amount more yards
Speaker 1: and it's not really correct for this game or something.
Speaker 1: And I don't remember exactly what he said, but it
Speaker 1: was something to that fact that I thought maybe Rufus
Speaker 1: would know about it. Anyways, we could talk more more
Speaker 1: of Rufus's props, because I find him interesting. One or
Speaker 1: two more Rufous. I mean, I have lots of problems,
Speaker 1: but but I'm I'm I'm going to respond to what
Speaker 1: you asked me. Okay, all right, how but what's the
Speaker 1: juiciest one that you think that you love? The juiciest one,
Speaker 1: Like when you first got it, you were like, oh
Speaker 1: my gosh, this is so juicy. I don't know, there
Speaker 1: wasn't that much that was super juicy. I mean, I
Speaker 1: guess when I first saw Odell Beckham's receiving yards number,
Speaker 1: um like sixty five and a half. And but it's
Speaker 1: gone up since then. I think it'll keep going up.
Speaker 1: I like that too high. What is the one I
Speaker 1: think you already related to? One of the the touchback
Speaker 1: I was gonna say, what's the one that you are
Speaker 1: slightly regretful over? Oh? I made a bad bet. I
Speaker 1: made a bet on no um on humor not to
Speaker 1: get a touch back minus two eight five at circa UM.
Speaker 1: At the opener, I think I I somehow like I was.
Speaker 1: I pulled over. Circuit props came out like about five
Speaker 1: minutes before I thought they would, and so I was
Speaker 1: not at the destination I was hoping to be at. UM,
Speaker 1: I wasn't home. So I literally had pulled over by
Speaker 1: the side of the road, pulled out my computer and
Speaker 1: was trying to bet these things when they came out,
Speaker 1: and so UM I think I literally, well, I kind
Speaker 1: of did some back of the uenble of calculations on
Speaker 1: that one. I didn't have a number ready for it.
Speaker 1: And then when I actually got into the nitty gritty
Speaker 1: of it and looked, UM, I found that I wasn't
Speaker 1: just a bad bet. It was a very bad bet,
Speaker 1: and I like the other side of it. So I
Speaker 1: ended up but I will say, because they moved the
Speaker 1: line so much. I ended up betting minus two eighty
Speaker 1: five on the no Hubert. Well, I bet I bet
Speaker 1: plus sorry, I bet plus two nine on the Huber touchback,
Speaker 1: and then I came back and bet no minus two
Speaker 1: eighty five. So I locked an old prophet there with
Speaker 1: my bad bet yeah, I mean I'd rather not have
Speaker 1: like had to lay all that money to win that
Speaker 1: very small small amount. But what's the what's the biggest
Speaker 1: outlet you have on any of these props? What's the
Speaker 1: one that um is the most? Probably te Higgins under
Speaker 1: receptions Maybe I don't know te Higgins under receptions alright
Speaker 1: under five and a half. Was there was there a
Speaker 1: year that you look back all the Super Bowl props
Speaker 1: that you remember as you were the granddaddy of them
Speaker 1: all where you made the most. Hey, well, my first
Speaker 1: my first two years ever betting props were probably like
Speaker 1: the best in terms of r o I percentage. So
Speaker 1: the first year I hit, I didn't even watch the game,
Speaker 1: the Steelers Cardinals Super Bowl, And I still remember telling
Speaker 1: everybody the LVSC office, um or I think Brian Blessing
Speaker 1: can come around and asked us to predict our final score,
Speaker 1: and I said twenty three, which ended up being the
Speaker 1: actual final score. Um, yeah, I know I should have
Speaker 1: been betting these like fan duel exact score teams, right,
Speaker 1: Um that was just like top of like I was like, yeah,
Speaker 1: it sounds like a reasonable score. But that Super Bowl
Speaker 1: I hit, I didn't watch it because I was too nervous.
Speaker 1: I borrowed money from friends. I had people invest in me. Um.
Speaker 1: I made like a I think the money that was bad.
Speaker 1: I made a dollar profit out of like sixty invested
Speaker 1: because I hit Gary russell first touchdown. That was a
Speaker 1: big one. Gary Russell. Yeah, do you have a first
Speaker 1: touchdown for this? Yeah? Yeah, I bet cam Makers at
Speaker 1: at plus seven fifty and higher. I make it plus
Speaker 1: six seventy. Somebody was asking me about that on Twitter today,
Speaker 1: what do you think about cam Makers first touchdown? There?
Speaker 1: You go? I like it, Um, But the next one.
Speaker 1: I still remember the end with the Peyton Manning Um,
Speaker 1: it was oh Saints to beat the Colts. I had
Speaker 1: both exact as. I hit um Reggie like Manning under
Speaker 1: his Wayne unders. I still remember the fourth down pass
Speaker 1: and headed for Wayne going in complete and like jumping
Speaker 1: on the shoulders of one of my business partners, and
Speaker 1: we were just like because we like, basically there, you know,
Speaker 1: that was a huge leverage play there. If he scores
Speaker 1: that touchdown, man, he goes over yards. Wayne goes over yards. Man,
Speaker 1: he goes over touchdowns and and everything and it all won. Yeah.
Speaker 1: So that was How about the Steeler in the Steelers
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, I had over twenty three and a half.
Speaker 1: First half, it's ten seven Kurt Warners at the Steeler
Speaker 1: four yard line. There's about twelve seconds left in the
Speaker 1: first hour. I have over twenty three and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm just hoping for a touchdown for the Cardinals, right
Speaker 1: because I'm ten at the half, because I have over
Speaker 1: twenty three and a half. And he throws it to Harrison,
Speaker 1: and Harrison is rumbling, bumbling, stumbling down the sideline with
Speaker 1: a convoy of Steelers and a convoy of Cardinals, and
Speaker 1: he gets tackled at the at the what is either
Speaker 1: the one yard line or in the ends, and they
Speaker 1: call it a touchdown. But it was extremely close on
Speaker 1: the on the replay and barely the nose of the ball.
Speaker 1: And when I see the replay of the of the
Speaker 1: of the of the play now, I noticed that the
Speaker 1: guy who made the tackle, Larry Fitzgerald, who came from
Speaker 1: all the way on the other side, he was standing
Speaker 1: out of bounds when he first touched Harrison, and I
Speaker 1: was wondering, if you're standing out of bounds and you're
Speaker 1: holding a guy, is the guy still considered in bounds
Speaker 1: or out of bounds. I think you're out of bottles.
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure you're out of bounds. You should be right.
Speaker 1: You can't make a tackle from out of bounds bounce, Like,
Speaker 1: is there some rule against making a tackle while you're
Speaker 1: touching out of bounce on him? Yeah, if you're I mean,
Speaker 1: we'll think about it. I've never seen something penalized for
Speaker 1: I'm never seen it either. But if you watch the replay,
Speaker 1: you'll notice that if a guy is completely a guy
Speaker 1: is out of bounds and he's making a can you
Speaker 1: tackle a guy? I would assume. So, really, why, I
Speaker 1: don't know, because I've never seen a rule against it.
Speaker 1: I've never seen How many times have you seen the
Speaker 1: guy could tackle someone from out of bounds? I think
Speaker 1: I taped it. I mean, especially if there's a fumble
Speaker 1: or something or like, I don't know, I mean, I
Speaker 1: don't know. There's a bubble and there's somebody touching the
Speaker 1: guy who's out of bounds. Technically he's the guy. Like
Speaker 1: the guy recovers it, he's out of bounce, he's trying
Speaker 1: to recover it. He's touching the guy he makes the tackle.
Speaker 1: That's not a penalty. But how many times have you
Speaker 1: seen a receiver and the first contact the person to
Speaker 1: to have him be ruled down is a guy that's
Speaker 1: out of bounds making the tackle. I don't think you
Speaker 1: see that now. I feel like you can see it
Speaker 1: on a fumble recovery like near the sideline. No, you'll
Speaker 1: see the fumble recovery with a guy out of bounds.
Speaker 1: But I'm saying that. No, No No, I'm saying the tackle
Speaker 1: because he's also going for the fumble. He's out of
Speaker 1: bounce like angled in. He's the guy slides. There's a
Speaker 1: billion guys sliding towards the sideline, and there's a bunch
Speaker 1: of guys. Some of them are landing out about some
Speaker 1: of them are landing inbounds, are touching each other. That
Speaker 1: happens each other. I don't think the show has taken
Speaker 1: a turn with it. I don't. I don't know about that. Guys.
Speaker 1: We Well, this gives me an opportunity to take to
Speaker 1: take to say two things. Look at that I can
Speaker 1: look at that play. It's amazing because one yeah, One,
Speaker 1: I do wonder if that James Harrison touchdown would have
Speaker 1: withstood replaced scrutiny of today forget Larry Fitz heard that
Speaker 1: of bounds. Would the ball have been ruled over? Right? Yeah?
Speaker 1: I know they did, But today seems so much more
Speaker 1: pickyune right, Today seems so much more scrutinized. The other
Speaker 1: thing is it gives me an opportunity to say, the
Speaker 1: greatest NFL stat there ever is there's never been. Larry
Speaker 1: Fitzgerald has more tackles then he has dropped than he
Speaker 1: has dropped passes in his career. That is the most
Speaker 1: incredible staff You know, you know, you know what it means.
Speaker 1: It means that that too many interceptions have been thrown
Speaker 1: to him. He hasn't won enough. Is that where you
Speaker 1: got it? I don't know. Well, his quarterbacks. He played
Speaker 1: with a lot of quarterbacks who through a lot of
Speaker 1: bad passes. But yeah, that was that was one of
Speaker 1: the most I'll never forget that super I was at
Speaker 1: the Mandalaid Bay and I'm like losing my mind because
Speaker 1: Harrison intercepts and now he's rolling, He's rumbling down the sidelines.
Speaker 1: Do you realize how long that play was? Because there
Speaker 1: was literally a convoy of guys and I'm thinking to myself,
Speaker 1: if he gets tackled, it's it's over. There's no way
Speaker 1: that there was like five Steelers and six Cardinals running
Speaker 1: with him. It was incredible. By the way. By the way, yes,
Speaker 1: I've googled this. In college football, you can come back
Speaker 1: in the field of play and make a tackle. I
Speaker 1: don't know. I don't have an answer for NFL, but
Speaker 1: come back, come back in the field of play. Yes,
Speaker 1: I'm talking about making a tackle. Yes, what, you can
Speaker 1: go back in the field of play and make one.
Speaker 1: I'm saying when you're out of bounds. I think you
Speaker 1: guys are mistaken about that. When you're out of bounds,
Speaker 1: you and you're the first person to make contact and tackle.
Speaker 1: I don't you're not a how to do that all
Speaker 1: the time? You don't know. I'm not saying. I'm not
Speaker 1: saying you see it all the time. I'm saying what
Speaker 1: what Rufus is saying is theoretically possible. I remember millions
Speaker 1: of games where they fumble the ball towards the sideline
Speaker 1: and there's six guys over there on the sidelines. Some
Speaker 1: of them are touching out of bounds, some of them
Speaker 1: are not. So I could see how he's what he's
Speaker 1: saying is also true. I'm not sure I love how
Speaker 1: in the same sentence, You're like, no, I'm not saying
Speaker 1: it happens millions of times, but I've seen millions of times.
Speaker 1: Well no, but I have seen millions of times fumbles
Speaker 1: on this near the sideline where guys are rolling around.
Speaker 1: I don't know what that means. That for sure you
Speaker 1: have to Yeah, you can't be out of bounds and
Speaker 1: recover the fumble. But I'm we're talking about tackles here, man,
Speaker 1: We're talking about tackles, right. But what he's saying is
Speaker 1: if a guy could if a guy fell on the
Speaker 1: ball just like a half a foot by the by
Speaker 1: the aut of bounds and another guy from the other
Speaker 1: team is laying on top of him and half out
Speaker 1: of bounds, they would call it a tackle, which is
Speaker 1: kind of similar to this scenario. Because they're saying, I'm
Speaker 1: just confused. Let's let's say you. Let's say you recover
Speaker 1: the ball at half a yard from the from the
Speaker 1: out of bounds and you're not out of bounds, and
Speaker 1: there's a thousand guys jumping on top of you to
Speaker 1: also get the ball, and some of those people are
Speaker 1: touching out of bounds and they're on the other team.
Speaker 1: Are those people credited with the tackle because they're touching
Speaker 1: you even though maybe their leg is out of bounds.
Speaker 1: That's what Rufus is saying. See, that's what I'm saying.
Speaker 1: That I have the NFL rule book open here, I
Speaker 1: can't be very exciting here. I'm I'm having trouble finding it,
Speaker 1: all right, gentlemen. It's a big rule book. Though. It's
Speaker 1: a big rule book. All right. I think we've we've
Speaker 1: done all we can do. Unless rufus again, I know
Speaker 1: you want to be provoked into you want to be prompted.
Speaker 1: Just one more problem, Yeah, and I know how much
Speaker 1: exciting I don't know. I mean, I sell to bet,
Speaker 1: how rufus? How about this? I know you don't in
Speaker 1: game prop bet, but if you did in game prop bet,
Speaker 1: would you what would you be looking to do or
Speaker 1: not looking to do in a scenario for example? Excellent
Speaker 1: exit question, good question. Honestly, I don't know. I mean,
Speaker 1: because I don't know how well these things the game
Speaker 1: scenarios are priced in. You know, maybe you don't think
Speaker 1: they're priced in enough. So they are priced there are priced.
Speaker 1: I don't think they're they're priced to withstand your modeling.
Speaker 1: Let's put it that way. Well, I've never modeled in games,
Speaker 1: so I think they probably are priced to withstand it.
Speaker 1: But why don't I just give you one one more prop?
Speaker 1: I like, actually, is is the score not to be
Speaker 1: tied after zero zero? I make the price minus you
Speaker 1: can get minus one ten um in a lot of
Speaker 1: places the score not to be tied. That doesn't include
Speaker 1: like after a touchdown, before the extra point, so it's
Speaker 1: after just like just like for three unanswered scores. So yes,
Speaker 1: I'm betting that there will not be a tie after
Speaker 1: zero zero, which is done pretty poorly this postseason if
Speaker 1: you put betting that, by the way, because there were ties, well, yeah,
Speaker 1: every game comes back and goes to overtime and it's
Speaker 1: one by a field goal. I mean the one in
Speaker 1: that vein is will the game be decided by exactly
Speaker 1: three points? No, I've seen that at minus five hundred better.
Speaker 1: My prices minus five fifty on it. You can actually
Speaker 1: find that. You can you can evaluate that one using
Speaker 1: the unobated alternate lines calculator. If you if you look
Speaker 1: at you go, you put in minus four and a
Speaker 1: half for the line. Look um, put in an alternate
Speaker 1: alternate line. I can't speak anymore. Of minus three and
Speaker 1: a half and then alternate line of minus two and
Speaker 1: a half, and look at the difference between those two.
Speaker 1: Calculate the percentages for the implied probabilities and do the
Speaker 1: same thing for plus two and a half and plus
Speaker 1: three and a half. Add those together you have your
Speaker 1: chance of the game lands on exactly three. Okay, So
Speaker 1: I think it's a recency bias because like every playoff game,
Speaker 1: it seems like has been decided by exactly three points.
Speaker 1: And last week I got burned. I laid minus seven
Speaker 1: hundred at the south point that on the bet Rams
Speaker 1: will win by exactly three points. No, no, minus seven hundred. Brutal,
Speaker 1: great great bet, bad result, great bed bad result. First
Speaker 1: and first and first intent from the twelve yard line,
Speaker 1: and the idiot runs the ball right into the line
Speaker 1: to of course give us second and eleven. You know
Speaker 1: there's no way they we're gonna get toushed one. But
Speaker 1: you know your reaction there, rufus. You know what that says.
Speaker 1: It says that you bet the process. That's right. You
Speaker 1: gotta you gotta be you gotta be comfortable with that. Uh.
Speaker 1: By the way, here's one that I would like to
Speaker 1: just say real quick, cam Akers. If the Rams get behind,
Speaker 1: you can bet all the cam Akers you want running under,
Speaker 1: because they'll just they'll abandon the run. They're not gonna
Speaker 1: run that much anyways. But even if they were to run,
Speaker 1: they're gonna run because they're ahead. If they're behind, they're
Speaker 1: they're gonna throw that football. And I don't think cam
Speaker 1: Akers is gonna get his yards, and I don't think
Speaker 1: they'll bring it down far enough. So for instance, if
Speaker 1: cam Akers has say ten yards early, and they're down
Speaker 1: seven somehow, you know, and then now they move it
Speaker 1: from from whatever it is now to like say forty
Speaker 1: or thirty five, betted under cam Akers ain't gonna get
Speaker 1: the ball if they're down. I love it. I like that, Todd.
Speaker 1: Very nice again to hear in the state of Nevada.
Speaker 1: Sure wish you could bet that gout a way, h huh.
Speaker 1: I think similarly mixing as well, but just because of
Speaker 1: what Rufus said about p Rhyan, but to be more
Speaker 1: in the passing give it. I think it's even more
Speaker 1: so for the Rams. I would say the Bengals, it
Speaker 1: seems like they I mean, they won't abandon. No, they don't,
Speaker 1: they say fairly balanced. I mean, of course, if you're
Speaker 1: down big, you're gonna abandon at some point, but I
Speaker 1: mean mixing they were down what was the score on
Speaker 1: their final drive before a time three? They're still running
Speaker 1: the ball. They were still they still and they were
Speaker 1: still running. Which is that in it? Yeah, Naji Harris
Speaker 1: is the one guy that they messed the props up
Speaker 1: for because the Steelers will even run down twenty nine
Speaker 1: nothing against Minnesota and down. The Steelers were down a
Speaker 1: zillion times this year and and usually means you can
Speaker 1: just play the running backs under for those teams and
Speaker 1: usually win. But you can't with Naji because they're always
Speaker 1: going to give it to Naji. They never abandoned the
Speaker 1: run even though they can't even run. But it's kind
Speaker 1: of interesting. You can't run, can't pass, Lose yourself, first song,
Speaker 1: first song, Super Bowl half time show, lose yourself. You
Speaker 1: remember nothing else from this podcast. That's a whole different shows.
Speaker 1: It's a whole different shot. Uh, that doesn't for the
Speaker 1: Mega pod. That does it for the Mega Pod, for
Speaker 1: the year, for the year, for the year, for the well,
Speaker 1: for the season. Anyways, there's no offseason. Yeah, no, I
Speaker 1: I do. I'm gonna do Tennis Grand Slams. I've committed
Speaker 1: to doing Tennis Grand Slams, moving a little drifting from
Speaker 1: baseball over time, moving towards tennis. And plus we don't
Speaker 1: even know if there's gonna be baseball, for God's sakes,
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just ridiculous that that's the best tweet
Speaker 1: during that Chief's Bills masterpiece was Dan Haren, the former MLB,
Speaker 1: the former Major League Baseball pitcher, tweeting, just so you
Speaker 1: guys know baseball is in the lockout. It right in
Speaker 1: the middle of the Bills and the Chiefs dramatic finish.
Speaker 1: That was awesome, Just so I can so I can
Speaker 1: heckle Tim Anderson and have him yell back at me
Speaker 1: like that like last year, and then Gilly's all me
Speaker 1: on ESPN way Big to Anderson's home behind the dugout.
Speaker 1: God wished if I can't believe he actually started screaming
Speaker 1: back on me, hysteric, putting his weight on the scale.
Speaker 1: We look forward to random college basketball tournaments where you
Speaker 1: hecko as well. You know what I tried. I went
Speaker 1: to the Duqueenne UH Saint Bonaventure game and I put
Speaker 1: up some videos. But the problem is there was too
Speaker 1: many people there and it was too loud in the
Speaker 1: in the in the in the stands. It's much better
Speaker 1: when you gotta go to like a Robert Morris game.
Speaker 1: Robert Morris is a moon township. How's your golf betting going?
Speaker 1: By the way? Um, I mean I had a great
Speaker 1: year last year. I'm not a great start of the
Speaker 1: season so far. Down a little bit, but well that's
Speaker 1: what we're We're five weeks into the year or something.
Speaker 1: But Todd, I actually I'm going to tease something for you.
Speaker 1: It anobated we're about where we're coming out with um
Speaker 1: in the next few weeks. A tool for in game
Speaker 1: college basketball betting, basically value of points. So like you
Speaker 1: see minus three and a half with three minutes to go,
Speaker 1: this is the score differential or whatever. I don't know, Um,
Speaker 1: what's minus two and a half? What's minus fort and alp?
Speaker 1: Like how much of those points worth? So if you're
Speaker 1: line shopping between books, I think that's uh, oh yeah,
Speaker 1: that's awesome. I'll have to definitely check that out. And
Speaker 1: college basketball has turned around for me. Uh last year,
Speaker 1: I had an amazing season. This year, I was down
Speaker 1: for about the first month and a half and now
Speaker 1: I've turned it around and I'm up in college basketball.
Speaker 1: So college basketball has been you know, it's starting to
Speaker 1: really turn to the upside for me. UM. The one
Speaker 1: thing that you may notice, I don't know if you
Speaker 1: notice this roof, is you may not watch a lot
Speaker 1: of college basketball. They don't fail as much late in
Speaker 1: college basketball as they were in previous years. So in
Speaker 1: the past, if the team was ahead by legs, say
Speaker 1: five points with forty five seconds left, they would fail immediately.
Speaker 1: And this year they're not doing it as much. Experience analytics,
Speaker 1: I think there's too much uh NBA influence, UM, the
Speaker 1: kids are. I think that the coaches are starting to think, okay,
Speaker 1: well we have a better chance if we can just
Speaker 1: get a stop down five and then hit a three
Speaker 1: with fifteen seconds left and then go from there. I
Speaker 1: don't know whether they're right or they're wrong. To me,
Speaker 1: it still seems like you have a better chance of
Speaker 1: these kids missing the free throws and you should foul sooner,
Speaker 1: but they don't seem to be doing it. The the
Speaker 1: other thing that is just an incredible, incredible pet peeve
Speaker 1: is they don't know that how to do the two
Speaker 1: for ones at the end of the first half, if
Speaker 1: they have the bath with fifty two seconds left, it's unbelievable.
Speaker 1: It drives you absolutely crazy. So you know, anybody who says, oh,
Speaker 1: when did you ever coach a college basketball game? I
Speaker 1: don't need to coach a college basketball game to know
Speaker 1: some of these things are maronic. And there's definitely my
Speaker 1: biggest pet peeve is the whole thing about if you're ahead,
Speaker 1: I hope I'll say this right, if you're a head
Speaker 1: in the college basketball game and you're trying to milk
Speaker 1: clock some of these teams immediately inbounds the ball, just
Speaker 1: take your time. The clock is moving, it just keeps running.
Speaker 1: You could like the ball could drift away, and it's
Speaker 1: like and they race the inbounds and then they have
Speaker 1: a jacked up possession when they should have been wasting
Speaker 1: the time at the front end of that possession anyway, right,
Speaker 1: and then it's just it's just brain head basketball drives
Speaker 1: me nuts. Take four seconds every time, didn't know it.
Speaker 1: Just stand there and be like, okay, one, Yeah, games
Speaker 1: have been one and lost on that kind of stuff,
Speaker 1: because that stuff adds up um all right, but you
Speaker 1: know what, you know, we We've never coached basketball, so
Speaker 1: I don't think we know. Yeah, we must not know anything,
Speaker 1: all right, Todd, thank you for a season's worth. Mike
Speaker 1: Palm h in memoriam. I don't know where he is,
Speaker 1: but he's a father. You guys broke up on me
Speaker 1: at the end. I can't hear you. Well, we're just
Speaker 1: saying thank you for you for doing the podcast for
Speaker 1: the whole year. Todd. We appreciate it, man. Thank you
Speaker 1: for all your efforts, all your songs. You know what
Speaker 1: your best performance was that one show where you were
Speaker 1: totally serious. You were awesome that. I wish you could
Speaker 1: hear you. Oh you can't hear me anyway. Being serious
Speaker 1: Todd on a one with Chris and Adam surt Off
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago was spectacular. Rufus, Thank you
Speaker 1: very much, sir. Twice this year. Uh, maybe not as
Speaker 1: fun as doing our numbers game thing where we just
Speaker 1: talk about everything else besides sports, but we'll get back
Speaker 1: to that eventually. No, I mean sports in my life too. Yeah,
Speaker 1: thank you all for listening. In luck with Super Bowl
Speaker 1: fifty six with all your bets. Thanks for listening, Megapod,
Speaker 1: nothing makea b but the meeting of the book podcast
Speaker 1: we'll be back. Tennis, golf, whole bunch of stuff. The
Speaker 1: NFL Draft we'll do all of in the off season.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening, Yeah,