WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2022 NFL MegaPod Super Bowl LVI Props Edition 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:13.760 Check it down Man, No down Man, Surtursday morning, February two. 0:00:13.840 --> 0:00:18.040 It is the Beating the Book podcast, the last mega 0:00:18.120 --> 0:00:21.040 pot of the year. It's Kill Alexander Live from the 0:00:21.160 --> 0:00:24.920 d where Mike Palm is absent today. Are we allowed 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:26.720 to say why Mike is absent? Todd? Do you know? 0:00:26.760 --> 0:00:30.280 Are we allowed to say why? I don't know about 0:00:30.480 --> 0:00:33.839 the allowances or disallowances. All right. In that case, Mike 0:00:33.960 --> 0:00:36.560 is a new father. So there you go. That's why 0:00:36.600 --> 0:00:39.000 Mike is not here with us. We assume that's the reason. 0:00:39.320 --> 0:00:43.560 Congratulations to Michael Palm. Todd is in the his Mom's 0:00:43.560 --> 0:00:47.400 cork Addict there in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. You good, Todd. I 0:00:47.400 --> 0:00:49.960 am not a new father as far as I know. No, 0:00:50.240 --> 0:00:53.559 that is correct. Uh. And for those who are wondering 0:00:54.760 --> 0:00:56.600 either can you can you tell the bridge story? Did 0:00:56.600 --> 0:00:58.600 you tell the bridge story on the podcast last week? 0:00:58.680 --> 0:01:00.280 Or was that on the radio? At the way and 0:01:00.560 --> 0:01:03.360 at the way end, I was just talking about where 0:01:03.360 --> 0:01:05.399 the casino is that I go to every night. My 0:01:05.560 --> 0:01:09.720 office is literally it's literally a mile or two from 0:01:09.720 --> 0:01:13.640 my house, and I drive directly over that bridge park 0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:15.319 and then I drive back at one o'clock in the 0:01:15.360 --> 0:01:18.600 morning after the Late West Coast Games. I drove home 0:01:18.800 --> 0:01:22.000 at one o'clock in the morning the night before and 0:01:22.080 --> 0:01:24.839 my friend Sean said, now you broke the bridge. That's 0:01:24.920 --> 0:01:28.800 just great. Seven o'clock in the morning. The bridge fell down, 0:01:28.840 --> 0:01:31.520 and we can laugh about it because nobody get nobody died, right, 0:01:31.600 --> 0:01:34.040 nobody died. Nobody died. Okay. What's the name of the 0:01:34.040 --> 0:01:37.160 bridge at Pittsburgh. I think it's called the fern Hollow Bridge. 0:01:37.640 --> 0:01:39.960 We always think of it just the Region Square bridge 0:01:40.000 --> 0:01:42.000 to get over a region square. But it's a real 0:01:42.040 --> 0:01:44.040 pain in the neck. Is now to go to my office, 0:01:44.080 --> 0:01:46.680 I gotta go all the way around. There's no more 0:01:46.720 --> 0:01:49.360 bridge there. It's a real thing. I was thinking. Is 0:01:49.360 --> 0:01:51.960 the universe trying to tell me there's something wrong with 0:01:52.120 --> 0:01:57.960 going over to my office? We're very interesting our guests 0:01:57.960 --> 0:02:01.800 for Super Bowl fifty six. Nobuddy is more appropriate to 0:02:01.840 --> 0:02:04.560 have as a guest for the Super Bowl then Rufus, Peabody, 0:02:04.640 --> 0:02:07.000 everybody Rufus on the show. Thank you Rufus for being 0:02:07.040 --> 0:02:10.240 on the podcast for the second time this season. Appreciate it. 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:14.000 And second time in studio. That's right, second time studio. 0:02:14.000 --> 0:02:16.280 By the way, if I'm sounding a little weird. It's because, Uh, 0:02:16.480 --> 0:02:18.400 I was just let out of quarantine and I thought 0:02:18.400 --> 0:02:19.959 I was over this COVID thing, and all of a sudden, 0:02:20.040 --> 0:02:22.160 like it's like the Revenge of the Universe on me, 0:02:22.160 --> 0:02:23.880 and I can't breathe all of a sudden. So if 0:02:23.880 --> 0:02:25.960 I pass out in the middle of the show, you'll 0:02:26.000 --> 0:02:31.400 know why over the ear and over the mic. Proper 0:02:31.440 --> 0:02:34.000 protocol here, I'll be fine. Just so you know that 0:02:34.080 --> 0:02:36.880 people are not booing that's rude. They're saying rude for 0:02:36.960 --> 0:02:40.560 rufus the crowd, you know, the crowd, right, big crowd. 0:02:40.880 --> 0:02:42.760 All right, So we're gonna get through our prop bets. 0:02:42.800 --> 0:02:45.280 We're gonna talk a little in game props. We're gonna 0:02:45.280 --> 0:02:48.640 talk I will anyway exotic props offshore because that's what 0:02:48.680 --> 0:02:51.200 people are here for. They want to know about the 0:02:51.240 --> 0:02:54.960 anthem and about Emma em and dre Verry J. Blige, 0:02:55.000 --> 0:02:57.520 and I'm all here for it. That's what I'm here for. 0:02:58.200 --> 0:03:00.040 As far as Super Bowl fifty six is concerned, and 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:02.440 I can tell you're both very excited about that portion. Uh, 0:03:02.480 --> 0:03:05.440 Super fifty six, the Bengals and the Rams. This has 0:03:05.480 --> 0:03:07.960 toggled between four and four and a half. There is 0:03:07.960 --> 0:03:10.960 a three and a half out there now, but yeah, 0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:12.880 it's toggle between four and four and a half the whole. 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:16.720 It's the old time here, it's four now. Consensus in 0:03:16.800 --> 0:03:19.440 favor of the Rams total is down at forty eight 0:03:19.440 --> 0:03:22.399 and a half. It opened at fifty I believe got 0:03:22.400 --> 0:03:24.480 down a forty nine and a half forty nine forty 0:03:24.520 --> 0:03:26.000 eight and a half. It is stated at forty eight 0:03:26.000 --> 0:03:29.440 and a half for a long time also, And so 0:03:29.600 --> 0:03:31.640 rufus will start with you just on the on the 0:03:31.720 --> 0:03:35.200 line and the total itself. Do you have any bets? 0:03:35.920 --> 0:03:37.560 Did you make a bet? Do you plan on making 0:03:37.560 --> 0:03:41.400 any bets? I do not have a bet. I you know, 0:03:41.720 --> 0:03:43.520 if I get a good Rams money line at some 0:03:43.560 --> 0:03:46.200 point I might make that bet. I lean Rams, but 0:03:46.720 --> 0:03:49.200 I have been focused on profits and the line is 0:03:49.240 --> 0:03:51.520 pretty close to my number, my numbers minus four and 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:54.040 a half without any home field of image to the Rams. 0:03:54.640 --> 0:03:57.520 You know, I've heard different arguments of how much home 0:03:57.560 --> 0:04:00.280 field advantage they should get. And let's and let me 0:04:00.360 --> 0:04:02.000 just say this about your money, your call on the 0:04:02.000 --> 0:04:05.120 money line on the Rams that we say this every 0:04:05.200 --> 0:04:08.600 year for the last quarter century. This is what Christie 0:04:08.640 --> 0:04:12.240 Andrews estimates for about the last quarter century. For whatever reason, 0:04:13.240 --> 0:04:16.480 people the casual better bets the Super Bowl differently than 0:04:16.520 --> 0:04:20.080 they do dogs during the regular season. So during the 0:04:20.080 --> 0:04:24.200 regular season betting behavior is usually take the dog plus 0:04:24.240 --> 0:04:27.279 the points for whatever reason, and no one really knows why. 0:04:27.320 --> 0:04:31.040 The last years, when betting the Super Bowl, people tend 0:04:31.080 --> 0:04:33.200 to take the dog on the money line, and what 0:04:33.279 --> 0:04:36.120 it creates is this artificial muting of the favorite on 0:04:36.160 --> 0:04:38.159 the money line. So I remember, like a few years 0:04:38.160 --> 0:04:40.800 ago when the Patriots playing the Falcons, for instance, was 0:04:40.839 --> 0:04:43.200 that three or three and a half a little smaller 0:04:43.200 --> 0:04:45.400 than this spread, but you could get like offshore of 0:04:45.440 --> 0:04:47.600 the Patriots line. Money line got all the way down 0:04:47.600 --> 0:04:50.000 to like minus one forty if I recall. So that's 0:04:50.040 --> 0:04:52.039 the kind of opportunity you're talking about. I guess the 0:04:52.040 --> 0:04:54.480 Super Bowl middle has exist for a long existed for 0:04:54.520 --> 0:04:57.000 a long time. It's because people You have a lot 0:04:57.040 --> 0:04:59.640 of people that are betting, like once a year just 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:02.360 on the Super Bowl, right, and those kind of people 0:05:02.440 --> 0:05:04.800 they don't want to bet um, they don't want to 0:05:04.880 --> 0:05:06.760 lay mine, they don't want to bet a favorite on 0:05:06.800 --> 0:05:09.600 the money line. They want to bet favorite on the spread. Um. 0:05:09.640 --> 0:05:13.560 Because you know they would like that regular payout. They 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:16.479 don't want to lay minus one seventy, But if they're 0:05:16.480 --> 0:05:18.479 beating the underdog, they want the They want that sort 0:05:18.480 --> 0:05:21.160 of lottery payout, but the bank for the buck. They 0:05:21.520 --> 0:05:24.479 they also don't understand the point spread. Many many people 0:05:24.520 --> 0:05:26.800 do not still understand the point spread. Have you ever 0:05:26.880 --> 0:05:30.680 tried explaining the point spread to a novice? It really 0:05:30.720 --> 0:05:33.800 doesn't seem like a very complicated topic, but try explaining 0:05:33.800 --> 0:05:37.120 it to people and you will very very quickly understand 0:05:37.440 --> 0:05:40.760 the trouble that human beings have with mathematics. So the 0:05:40.839 --> 0:05:42.479 question is, how do you explain it? I feel like 0:05:42.520 --> 0:05:46.160 different people explain it different ways. Well, I mean, maybe 0:05:46.160 --> 0:05:49.760 it's just their explanations that well that that's a good point, rufus, 0:05:49.760 --> 0:05:51.840 But I don't think it's accurate in this case because 0:05:51.880 --> 0:05:55.919 I'm actually pretty pretty articulate and explaining things. He's not 0:05:56.040 --> 0:05:59.440 questioning your are being articular. You say, how does one 0:05:59.520 --> 0:06:01.880 explain that to the novice? Right, I'll tell you how 0:06:01.920 --> 0:06:04.000 I would explain it. I would say, oh, if the 0:06:04.000 --> 0:06:06.680 spread is three and a half, what that means is 0:06:06.680 --> 0:06:08.440 is that the team that is favored by three and 0:06:08.440 --> 0:06:11.400 a half must win. By four or more points for 0:06:11.440 --> 0:06:14.080 you to cash your bet, whereas if you bet on 0:06:14.120 --> 0:06:17.200 the underdog, they must win out right, or even if 0:06:17.200 --> 0:06:19.599 they lose by three or fewer, you will win your bet. 0:06:19.760 --> 0:06:21.440 That's how I would explain. Oh, you know what I 0:06:21.480 --> 0:06:23.680 would say. I'd say that number next to it. You 0:06:23.800 --> 0:06:26.520 just add or subtract that number to your team's total 0:06:26.600 --> 0:06:28.919 and compared to the other teams, and whichever is higher wins. 0:06:28.920 --> 0:06:31.000 Oh you see that will confuse people. Well, it's just 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:33.520 like minus. You know, your team's total minus three and 0:06:33.520 --> 0:06:36.039 a half against their total. That sounds so logical to you, 0:06:36.080 --> 0:06:37.719 But that would confuse me. If I didn't know what 0:06:37.720 --> 0:06:42.040 what you were talking about, I'd be like, what I've found, examples. 0:06:42.520 --> 0:06:45.960 I've found giving them examples is the only way that 0:06:46.040 --> 0:06:49.640 it really penetrates their brains at times. For instance, if 0:06:49.640 --> 0:06:51.640 it's a four point line and I say, if the 0:06:51.680 --> 0:06:55.400 final scores one to seventeen, who would win? Yeah? No? 0:06:55.640 --> 0:06:57.840 And then if the scores to eighteen, who would win? 0:06:57.839 --> 0:06:59.880 If it was sixteen, who would win? You know? That 0:07:00.040 --> 0:07:03.080 seems to be the only way they get eeen, I 0:07:03.080 --> 0:07:05.040 think I have an exact defar eight team. Do you 0:07:06.240 --> 0:07:08.280 so diver telling you the story about me being behind 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:11.160 the book at the South Point during the Falcons Patriots 0:07:11.200 --> 0:07:14.240 Super Bowl when it was to the Patriots. So yeah, 0:07:14.280 --> 0:07:15.880 so this is it has to do. I had the 0:07:16.000 --> 0:07:18.480 nine the Patriots to score exactly nine ticket when it 0:07:18.600 --> 0:07:21.200 was nine. That's my whole story. So I used to 0:07:21.200 --> 0:07:22.640 do it those days. Now I do the full bed 0:07:22.680 --> 0:07:25.320 cast for Vison, but those days I only used to 0:07:25.320 --> 0:07:27.600 do the first half. And so after the first half 0:07:27.640 --> 0:07:29.560 I would I would. I didn't want to travel home 0:07:29.600 --> 0:07:31.280 because I missed the second half. So I'm like, where 0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:32.560 am I going to hang out for the second half? 0:07:32.600 --> 0:07:35.320 This places of Madhouse. Oh, I'll go back with Chrissie 0:07:35.680 --> 0:07:38.440 and Jimmy Vicara and Vitty and I'll watch Super Bowl 0:07:38.480 --> 0:07:40.480 and quiet back there. So I go back there. Remember 0:07:40.520 --> 0:07:42.480 it was twenty eight to three a half time. Famously, 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:45.160 people the only Super Bowl where people remember a mid 0:07:45.240 --> 0:07:47.560 game score more than they do the final score. So 0:07:47.560 --> 0:07:50.160 it's twenty eight to three, and the Patriots score a 0:07:50.240 --> 0:07:52.520 touchdown to make it twenty eight to nine, and I 0:07:52.520 --> 0:07:56.520 think Gostkowski missed an extra point. If I'm not they 0:07:56.560 --> 0:07:58.520 did not go for two. Yeah, I don't think so, 0:07:59.680 --> 0:08:01.240 I could be wrong, But that's not the point. They 0:08:01.280 --> 0:08:03.880 ended up on nine. And so I'm back there and 0:08:04.000 --> 0:08:07.000 Chrissie has Chris Andrews, who runs the South Point Hotel casino, 0:08:07.040 --> 0:08:09.760 their computer back there, they can look at all their 0:08:09.800 --> 0:08:12.720 liability for any number of their hundreds of props. And 0:08:12.760 --> 0:08:15.440 so all of a sudden, like he was all jovial, 0:08:15.480 --> 0:08:17.119 and then all of a sudden, he like his face 0:08:17.200 --> 0:08:19.880 turns a little like sour, and I'm like, what's wrong? 0:08:19.920 --> 0:08:21.960 Like I know him well enough where I can something's wrong. 0:08:22.160 --> 0:08:25.400 He goes, ah, and you know his face. He goes, 0:08:25.840 --> 0:08:28.280 we really don't want this to end up on the nine. 0:08:28.400 --> 0:08:31.160 And I go why. He goes, let's just say we're 0:08:31.160 --> 0:08:33.480 in for six figures if the Patriots end up on 0:08:33.520 --> 0:08:38.920 the nine. I go, really do I exactly? Yeah. Keep 0:08:38.960 --> 0:08:41.920 in mind, in real time it only ended up being 0:08:42.080 --> 0:08:45.320 fifteen minutes, because the Patriots famously came back and not 0:08:45.360 --> 0:08:47.200 only got off the nine but won the game. But 0:08:47.320 --> 0:08:51.000 for those fifteen minutes of real time, not even football time, Chris, 0:08:51.000 --> 0:08:52.760 he's dying. Back then. I'm like, do I know the 0:08:52.800 --> 0:08:55.400 person who has the nine? He goes, yeah, you do. 0:08:56.160 --> 0:09:01.000 What was the odds? I don't know I tweeted out 0:09:01.040 --> 0:09:03.400 the ticket after it lost. Actually, I was like, man, 0:09:03.400 --> 0:09:05.520 I had a little sweat for a little while. Um, 0:09:05.840 --> 0:09:08.679 I it was pretty high. I don't remember exactly if 0:09:08.720 --> 0:09:11.800 you could check my history common I mean, I mean, 0:09:11.960 --> 0:09:14.240 I guess nine is that you get the field goals. 0:09:14.240 --> 0:09:17.120 But that's about it. Three field goals or a touchdown 0:09:17.120 --> 0:09:20.520 in its extra point and field goal. Right, well, it 0:09:20.559 --> 0:09:23.719 was nine for you know, brief about a time and 0:09:23.800 --> 0:09:26.160 that it wasn't anymore. But that was my Yeah, that 0:09:26.240 --> 0:09:28.079 was I don't think I ever told you that story. 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:31.720 The So okay, um Todd, do you have a play 0:09:31.720 --> 0:09:34.720 on either the side or total. I mean, I'm not 0:09:34.760 --> 0:09:37.000 gonna play a pre game. I mean, I don't play 0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:38.760 any of the game's pre game pretty much, so why 0:09:38.800 --> 0:09:40.840 would I play this one pre game? I'm gonna play 0:09:40.880 --> 0:09:43.400 it under. I mean, if I had to you forced me, 0:09:43.440 --> 0:09:45.080 I would play the under forty eight and a half 0:09:45.600 --> 0:09:48.600 or I would play the Cincinnati team total under twenty 0:09:48.679 --> 0:09:50.960 one and a half. That's probably the best one that 0:09:51.000 --> 0:09:53.679 I would play, would be the Cincinnati under twenty one 0:09:53.679 --> 0:09:56.400 and a half team total. Why is this night different 0:09:56.440 --> 0:09:58.760 from any other night? Is what you're basically exactly. It's 0:09:58.760 --> 0:10:03.840 a minished ton of kind of first of all monished 0:10:03.880 --> 0:10:05.800 to Okay, well, I wanted to ask, can I ask 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:09.360 rufus a quick question about props? Whatever? Kind of interesting? 0:10:09.840 --> 0:10:11.760 Um ruff is one of the things. I mean, I 0:10:11.760 --> 0:10:13.840 don't play a lot of props. I've played more props 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:15.120 this year, but I don't really play a lot of 0:10:15.160 --> 0:10:18.280 props in general. But the the thing that I always 0:10:18.280 --> 0:10:21.640 wonder is if you when you're making, when you're playing 0:10:21.640 --> 0:10:24.320 your props, aren't you aren't they a lot of them 0:10:24.360 --> 0:10:26.320 correlated to what's happening in the game. So can you 0:10:26.360 --> 0:10:28.520 get in a situation where, let's say you've made a 0:10:28.559 --> 0:10:31.960 hundred props, if one team doesn't win, you're gonna lose 0:10:32.000 --> 0:10:34.480 eighty percent of them or something? Does that happen? Or 0:10:34.559 --> 0:10:38.640 is there some non correlation ability for you to have 0:10:38.720 --> 0:10:41.960 so many different props that the result of who would 0:10:41.960 --> 0:10:44.400 win does not really come into effect? And if that 0:10:44.559 --> 0:10:46.320 is the case, If the former is the case, then 0:10:46.360 --> 0:10:49.520 won't you be just rather better betting the teams themselves? 0:10:49.559 --> 0:10:51.560 So that's a really good question. I think it's one 0:10:51.600 --> 0:10:54.400 that's kind of complicated, and I don't know all the 0:10:54.400 --> 0:10:59.360 exact correlations Um. Certainly a lot of the props are 0:10:59.400 --> 0:11:01.800 based on the point spread and the total are and 0:11:01.840 --> 0:11:05.640 so what I guess what the way we anticipate the 0:11:05.679 --> 0:11:07.880 game playing out as a result of that. So, for example, 0:11:08.280 --> 0:11:10.520 the Bengals are four and half point underdog, which means 0:11:11.000 --> 0:11:13.040 um a four and a half pourn underdog on average 0:11:13.320 --> 0:11:15.160 when they have the ball will be trailing by three 0:11:15.160 --> 0:11:18.360 point one points every snap on their average snap will 0:11:18.360 --> 0:11:20.040 be down three four points. I know that sounds like 0:11:20.080 --> 0:11:22.480 a larger number than you'd expect, right, But if you 0:11:22.480 --> 0:11:24.680 think about it, if the line was pick, even if 0:11:24.720 --> 0:11:28.200 the lines pick the average UM, well, the team that 0:11:28.360 --> 0:11:31.440 is pick is going to be trailing on average on 0:11:31.679 --> 0:11:34.400 their snaps because you know, think about the game starts 0:11:34.400 --> 0:11:36.240 at zero zero, team goes up seven. Oh now the 0:11:36.240 --> 0:11:37.960 other teams down seven. They have the ball down seven. 0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:41.600 So because you're getting the ball after the other team does, right. So, um, 0:11:41.640 --> 0:11:44.320 but you're saying in a pick game, they're gonna they're 0:11:44.320 --> 0:11:47.200 gonna be they're gonna be down more than they're up 0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:49.920 when they have the ball. Yeah, both teams will be 0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:53.200 down more than they're up when they have the ball. 0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:55.520 Think about it. If you've never thought about It's kind 0:11:55.520 --> 0:11:58.880 of counterintuitive, but it makes sense because it's you get 0:11:58.880 --> 0:12:00.640 the ball after the other team has that they score 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:06.880 then you know, anyway, we're getting off track here. Um, yes, 0:12:07.000 --> 0:12:09.040 they're they're definitely things that are correlated, but there's also 0:12:09.040 --> 0:12:11.440 things that are sort of um, and I don't want 0:12:11.440 --> 0:12:13.480 to say anti correlated, but but correlated the other way. 0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:17.120 So for example, if I'm against a team's passing game, Um, 0:12:17.320 --> 0:12:20.360 let's say I was against you know, um, the Bengals 0:12:20.360 --> 0:12:25.480 passing game and against all the Bengals wide receivers. You know, certainly, um, 0:12:25.520 --> 0:12:28.240 you know, if I knew that Jamar Chase had nine 0:12:28.280 --> 0:12:31.000 catches for a hundred and seventy yards, then my expectation 0:12:31.040 --> 0:12:33.640 for Tee Higgins is gonna be less than not knowing that. 0:12:33.760 --> 0:12:39.360 So so there's there's negative correlation there, right, So um, 0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:42.439 they're there. You know, certainly you can get um one 0:12:42.480 --> 0:12:46.280 of these really bad outcomes, um, which basically bad outcome 0:12:46.360 --> 0:12:48.600 for me means things happening that are exciting for the 0:12:48.800 --> 0:12:51.200 average fan. I root for the most boring Super Bowl 0:12:51.200 --> 0:12:55.920 ever typically, but um, most of these um, you know, 0:12:56.040 --> 0:12:59.400 there I bet enough esoteric stuff and that that that 0:12:59.520 --> 0:13:03.600 I feel like you know, even if if the you know, 0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:07.240 unless it's like a crazy offensive game. Um, I'm I'm 0:13:07.280 --> 0:13:10.640 not in that that much trouble. I mean, obviously I 0:13:10.679 --> 0:13:13.120 could still be in trouble, but you know, just but 0:13:13.120 --> 0:13:16.720 but it's not correlated to a huge offensive game. All right. 0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:18.360 Let me let me step in here before you ask 0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:21.439 more questions, Toddles, let's just establish for the audience some 0:13:21.480 --> 0:13:24.080 street grid here for Rufus. I know you downplayed this 0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:25.880 when you are in a numbers game earlier this week. 0:13:26.240 --> 0:13:28.880 But the reason that Rufus is appropriate for the Super Bowl, 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:32.120 perhaps more than he's he's appropriate every week, but perhaps 0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:35.880 more than anything any other time of year, is because 0:13:37.160 --> 0:13:40.360 this was Super Bowl props. Was when you were back 0:13:40.360 --> 0:13:42.400 with your team back in the day. This was kind 0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:45.760 of your week, This was your thing, right, and you 0:13:46.200 --> 0:13:49.000 made you made out very well doing this. You acknowledged 0:13:49.040 --> 0:13:51.680 you weren't the first person to do this, but you 0:13:51.720 --> 0:13:54.840 were the first person, at least at least to my knowledge, 0:13:54.840 --> 0:13:57.280 that got notoriety for doing that. Is that fair? I 0:13:57.280 --> 0:14:00.840 think that's fair. Yeah. And and do you find that 0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:04.760 the opportunities are fewer and further between, or do you 0:14:04.800 --> 0:14:08.240 think that there's still quite a few of those opportunities. Still, 0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:11.280 I think there's still quite a few opportunities. The opportunities 0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:13.800 are not as large as they used to be, not 0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:17.520 as large, not as large. It's the aren't as big 0:14:17.600 --> 0:14:20.560 as right. You don't have the same gravy you used 0:14:20.640 --> 0:14:24.080 to have in terms of sports book prop openers, So 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:27.200 I think there's a lot there's books have more surface 0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:30.280 area to defend now, especially with these same game parlays 0:14:30.280 --> 0:14:32.160 and stuff like that, which honestly, I'm sure there's a 0:14:32.200 --> 0:14:35.200 ton of value to be found there. It's it's not 0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:38.440 something I've really looked into. Um, I'm you know, I'm 0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:40.680 at the point where I'm betting props. I would say 0:14:40.680 --> 0:14:42.160 once a year, but I actually bet in the last 0:14:42.160 --> 0:14:45.160 two weeks also, so um so a few times a year, 0:14:45.520 --> 0:14:47.920 just because probably there it's a it's a lot of 0:14:47.960 --> 0:14:50.560 manual work, there's a ton of art to it, um, 0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:54.120 But there are I think opportunities are a little bit different. 0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:57.720 They're smaller, but a lot of it now is betting 0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:00.960 very close to game time after the blick has driven 0:15:01.200 --> 0:15:04.120 up prices. So the public loves betting on things to happen. 0:15:04.160 --> 0:15:07.359 They like betting receivers to go over players to score touchdowns, 0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:10.600 um on a safety, on defensive or special teams touchdown. 0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:15.200 And so the opportunities there, especially with marquee players to 0:15:15.240 --> 0:15:18.320 sort of bet unders close to game time after the 0:15:18.360 --> 0:15:22.800 public is exactly like under receiving yards you think it's 0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:24.680 going to get blown way out it is. I mean, 0:15:25.000 --> 0:15:26.880 of course I think it is. I mean he's averaged 0:15:26.880 --> 0:15:29.960 a hundred and eighteen or hundred and seventeen receiving yards 0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:33.160 per game. Not to interrupt your flow, but that's so 0:15:33.200 --> 0:15:35.680 that's the biggest bit of macro advice we can give, 0:15:35.800 --> 0:15:38.960 right generally speaking, if you're thinking about betting over on 0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:41.720 those kinds of guys and those kind of props, you 0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:43.480 should have already been them. Yeah. And if you if 0:15:43.480 --> 0:15:45.120 you want to bet Cooper cup over, the best time 0:15:45.160 --> 0:15:46.880 to bet it is right now. If you wanted to 0:15:46.920 --> 0:15:50.000 go under, wait as long as you yes, and especially 0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:54.840 so wouldn't you say, because we now have more and 0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:57.880 more states and just this week, right, just not this week, 0:15:57.960 --> 0:16:01.160 but just this past month, New York in Louisiana are 0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:05.720 brand new. This is entire new generations of people that 0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:08.600 do have not bet illegally right, have not bet with 0:16:08.600 --> 0:16:11.160 a local bookie, have not been offshore, who have waited 0:16:11.200 --> 0:16:13.760 for their legal opportunity to bet, and this is their 0:16:13.800 --> 0:16:17.560 first crack at doing this stuff. That's a total that's 0:16:17.560 --> 0:16:21.120 a total overwave of betters. You would imagine if it's 0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:23.560 an unknown, it's an unknown, how much it's gonna affect 0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:26.280 these books pricing, how much they're going to respond and say, oh, 0:16:26.320 --> 0:16:28.280 you know what, we're gonna leave. You know, we know 0:16:28.360 --> 0:16:30.880 that people betting the over, we know we have the 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:33.440 edge there. Um let him that the over will take 0:16:33.480 --> 0:16:35.240 on liability versus let's say, you know what, this is 0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:37.720 too much liability, let's move this number. Because I think 0:16:38.120 --> 0:16:41.280 the European books um, the DraftKings fan Duels of the 0:16:41.280 --> 0:16:45.800 world bet MGMs, Caesar's um there. I don't know if 0:16:45.800 --> 0:16:47.760 I should call Caesar's European. I don't know, are there, 0:16:48.280 --> 0:16:53.560 um well, we all are Caesars are. But those books 0:16:53.600 --> 0:16:56.360 tend to, especially with prop markets, they tend to be 0:16:56.480 --> 0:16:59.240 less responsive to bets in terms of moving their prices. 0:16:59.760 --> 0:17:02.480 Um and they you know, like, you can bet something, 0:17:02.480 --> 0:17:04.440 I won't move. They just will limit you or something 0:17:04.480 --> 0:17:08.280 like that. I don't know. Um versus books in Vegas, 0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:10.160 you bet they move the line, you bet, they move 0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:13.359 the line, and so yeah, you know, they obviously are 0:17:13.480 --> 0:17:16.480 moving lines, but it's it's less it's less responsive. They're 0:17:16.480 --> 0:17:19.159 more like, Okay, we have our algorithms being we're sticking 0:17:19.160 --> 0:17:24.320 with this a little more. Yeah, whereas Vegas reacts pretty dramatically. Okay, 0:17:24.400 --> 0:17:26.760 So by the way, I would, I would question Gilly 0:17:26.800 --> 0:17:28.760 whether in New York is going to be that big 0:17:28.760 --> 0:17:30.359 a deal. I think. I mean, when I lived in 0:17:30.400 --> 0:17:34.919 New York, everybody was betting already. So it's like now, granted, 0:17:35.040 --> 0:17:37.800 Louisiana maybe, but in New York, it seems to me 0:17:37.880 --> 0:17:40.359 that everybody was already betting. Now maybe they're gonna all 0:17:40.400 --> 0:17:45.680 bet legally legally, What is the what's the point of otherwise, Oh, 0:17:45.720 --> 0:17:47.480 I thought you meant that they that they wouldn't have 0:17:47.520 --> 0:17:49.560 had access to this kind of stuff in the past. 0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:53.200 I'm saying that the the prop markets that we're talking 0:17:53.200 --> 0:17:56.240 about that are largely legal, right that we're talking about, 0:17:56.720 --> 0:18:00.000 that they could be affected an entirely more dramatic way 0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:02.080 that they ever have been before. I don't think that's 0:18:02.080 --> 0:18:04.800 a nutty statement. I didn't say it was nutty. I 0:18:04.840 --> 0:18:08.320 just think that the theoretically that I think a lot 0:18:08.359 --> 0:18:10.160 more people were exposed in New York than you would 0:18:10.160 --> 0:18:12.400 think otherwise. But maybe I'm wrong. No, No, I wasn't 0:18:12.400 --> 0:18:14.120 trying to be naive about the fact that they didn't 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:16.000 find other ways to bet, or maybe they crossed the 0:18:16.000 --> 0:18:18.320 state line in some cases. But I'm saying there is 0:18:18.359 --> 0:18:22.520 a large group of that of that population. Let's say 0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:25.280 if it's I mean, they just made one point six 0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:28.960 billion in legalized betting in a three week span, or 0:18:29.040 --> 0:18:31.400 at one point six billion and handle in New York. 0:18:31.600 --> 0:18:34.720 It just destroyed New Jersey in three weeks. How much 0:18:34.720 --> 0:18:37.160 of that was the free play promos? Though? Maybe that's 0:18:37.240 --> 0:18:39.320 that's the big question. That's a big question. But it's 0:18:39.320 --> 0:18:43.280 also also it's also not a standard Sunday of football either. 0:18:43.320 --> 0:18:45.439 Imagine they have sixteen games to bet on. What that 0:18:45.520 --> 0:18:47.000 number is going to be like? And I guess all 0:18:47.040 --> 0:18:49.640 I'm saying Todd is but Meltzer. Meltzer made a very 0:18:49.640 --> 0:18:53.320 good point that per capita was actually lower than which 0:18:53.400 --> 0:18:56.400 is interesting, which is now online. I just mentioned so 0:18:56.480 --> 0:18:58.159 that So what I'm saying is of that of that 0:18:58.560 --> 0:19:02.760 huge swath of influx, there's got to be a bunch 0:19:02.800 --> 0:19:05.000 of that a huge percentage of that as people who 0:19:05.000 --> 0:19:07.159 have just we don't have to. I'm with you, I'm 0:19:07.200 --> 0:19:09.879 I'm not arguing with you. I'm just I'm just by 0:19:09.880 --> 0:19:11.919 the way. I do have a pre flop bed. I 0:19:11.960 --> 0:19:14.520 have the bagels at plus four and a half. I 0:19:14.560 --> 0:19:16.760 don't It's not a big bed. I took it. Could 0:19:16.760 --> 0:19:18.879 I see the Rams crushing him? I could go to 0:19:18.920 --> 0:19:21.800