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Speaker 1: Hey guys, how are you welcome into a Wednesday morning

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Speaker 1: edition of the Dally Juice Podcast. My name is Matt Perrault.

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Speaker 1: You can follow me on Twitter at sports doc Matt

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Speaker 1: every morning for YouTube on the video or video on

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Speaker 1: YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts for audio always

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Speaker 1: being brought to you by bet MGM, where you can

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Speaker 1: go back to the baseball well if you would like

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Speaker 1: that ten dollars bet one hundred and fifty bucks on

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Speaker 1: any event using that promo Codejuice one P fifty at

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Speaker 1: bet MGM. We have the Cardinals and we have the

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Speaker 1: Dodgers tonight here in game or the wild card game

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Speaker 1: for the National League. All right, so one in one day.

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Speaker 1: But like I mentioned yesterday, if we got the Red

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Speaker 1: Sox win the plus one twenty three cash is, it's

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Speaker 1: a winning day. So yesterday, although we went one in one,

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Speaker 1: it was a winning day. Look, the fifth inning in

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Speaker 1: the sixth inning are so interesting because if you don't

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Speaker 1: score in the fifth chances are you going to score

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Speaker 1: in the sixth. And the Yankee scored one run in

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Speaker 1: the sixth and then Aaron Judge got thrown out at

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Speaker 1: the plate, which was beautiful. Why did you send him

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Speaker 1: thank you. Red Sox win plus one twenty three cash

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Speaker 1: winning day, Red Sox win, Bye Bye Yankees. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: good day, six to two win for the Red Sox.

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Speaker 1: If you bet the over, you got a miracle push

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Speaker 1: on that ridiculous right field home run by Mike Stanton,

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Speaker 1: and so you wind up getting yourself a push on that.

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Speaker 1: If you had an under bet going, that's stunk because

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Speaker 1: you thought you were good and the public was all

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Speaker 1: over it. I mean they were all over the under,

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Speaker 1: and then he pushes to the over. I thought the

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Speaker 1: over was the right play personally, but ends up being

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Speaker 1: a push. First five, I thought the Red Sox would

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Speaker 1: get more runs off Garrett Cole than they did. Garrett

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Speaker 1: Cole was predictably awful. He stunk and the one thing

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Speaker 1: that we kind of unfortunately got dinged up with our

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Speaker 1: two double play balls the Red Sox hit into before

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Speaker 1: the fifth inning, and that killed their ability to score

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Speaker 1: one or two more runs. So three to nothing after five.

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Speaker 1: Yankee score run in the sixth inning, making it three

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Speaker 1: to one, and then Judge gets chucked out at home

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Speaker 1: plate Red Sox at a run at the bottom of

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Speaker 1: the sixth inning. So it's just it depends upon which

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Speaker 1: inning does the scoring happen in, because the fifth and

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Speaker 1: sixth inning right now are in baseball, it's weird. It's

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Speaker 1: watch how many runs are scored in the fifth and

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Speaker 1: the sixth inning. It's almost every fifth inning or sixth

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Speaker 1: inning you're getting at least one, maybe two, three four

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Speaker 1: runs that get scored. So that's why I bet the

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Speaker 1: first five over four three runs come in. Unfortunately, that

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Speaker 1: loses half a unit. But then we got the plus

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Speaker 1: one twenty three, so not a big winning day, but

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Speaker 1: a winning day nonetheless. All Right, so here's where we're

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Speaker 1: going today. I'm going to give you one play for

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals and the Dodgers, and I have a WNBA

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Speaker 1: play that we're going to go back to the well

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Speaker 1: with because you guys liked betting the WNBA, and we

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Speaker 1: got a game between the Aces and the Mercury that

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Speaker 1: I want to jump in here with for a half

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Speaker 1: a year. I am going to add at some point

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Speaker 1: during the day on the Discord channel, I will add

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Speaker 1: to the slate because there are a couple of things

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at. Okay, here are two angles I'm approaching

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Speaker 1: the total and the side I don't have the total

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Speaker 1: in the side. Few guys here for the podcast today.

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Speaker 1: I want to watch where the money goes, and I

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Speaker 1: want to get into a little bit as to where

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Speaker 1: is the public, where are the books? What do they

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Speaker 1: need here? Because certain books in the offshore were reporting

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Speaker 1: the biggest handle of the entire season up to this

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Speaker 1: point on Yankees Red Sox last night, everyone was on

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Speaker 1: the Yankees. Everyone if everyone's on the Dodgers, and I

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Speaker 1: mean if like everyone's on the Dodgers. I'm really wondering

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Speaker 1: if we're going to get the Cardinals at plus one

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Speaker 1: and a half runs at plus money right now it's

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Speaker 1: minus one ten. It's attractive, but I want to wait

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Speaker 1: and see how much value we can get before the

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Speaker 1: game begins tonight and whether we get plus money on that.

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Speaker 1: Rather than bet him to win, have them lose by

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Speaker 1: a single run, all the pressure is going to be

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Speaker 1: on the Dodgers. Everyone's gonna bet the Dodgers, is my prediction.

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Speaker 1: And so this minus two twenty to two thirty should

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Speaker 1: rise and run line should become you know, everyone's gonna

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Speaker 1: bet Dodgers run line. It's Max Schuerzer. You know I'm

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Speaker 1: looking at that the Dodgers and the or the Reds

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Speaker 1: or sorry red to the Cardinals reverse run line at

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Speaker 1: plus one and a half runs, I'm looking at that,

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Speaker 1: the over seven and a half runs, looking at that,

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Speaker 1: and I'm also looking at the strikeout unders for Max Schuzer.

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Speaker 1: If we get it's eight right now, if it goes

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Speaker 1: up eight and a half or nine, look these pictures

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Speaker 1: if they get into trouble like Garrett Cole last night

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Speaker 1: the Dodgers, if Max Scherzer doesn't have it, and look,

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Speaker 1: he's one of the best pitchers in the game. But hypothetically,

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Speaker 1: the Dodgers have every arm available, they're going to go

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Speaker 1: to anyone. If he is in trouble second inning, third inning,

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Speaker 1: he's getting yanked. That means his strikeout prop is going under.

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Speaker 1: So these pitchers are not gonna be given long leashes

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Speaker 1: by any manager in a one game situation, in particular

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Speaker 1: winning You're the Dodgers and you've won one hundred and

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Speaker 1: six games, so you've got other weapons you can go

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Speaker 1: to if Max is off. So a part of me

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Speaker 1: is like, hmm, do you come in now with the

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Speaker 1: under under eight or do you wait? So I'm gonna wait.

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Speaker 1: So those are three bets I'm looking at here for

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Speaker 1: this game that I'm not gonna make until right for

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Speaker 1: a game time if I make any of them. But

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Speaker 1: those are three bets I am looking at for Cardinals

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Speaker 1: and the Dodgers today. Haven't bet it yet, but I'm

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Speaker 1: looking at now the one bet I will tell you

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Speaker 1: about and I will make for the Cards and the Dodgers.

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Speaker 1: Right now, it's minus one twenty five for no runs

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Speaker 1: in the first inning. All right, here is my thought

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Speaker 1: process on this. Okay, Max Scherzer's ERA in the first

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Speaker 1: inning is one point eight one. That is outstanding. I

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Speaker 1: know that the Cardinals have been very good at scoring

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Speaker 1: runs in the first inning. Also, I know the Dodgers

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Speaker 1: percentage wise, they score about point seven runs per first inning,

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Speaker 1: which is number one in baseball. But the Dodgers played

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Speaker 1: a bunch of crap teams. Okay, and Adam Wainwright going,

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Speaker 1: He's ERA in the first inning is two point eight.

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Speaker 1: It's one of his better innings. This guy is a machine.

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Speaker 1: This guy's an animal. You know what. He's taken the

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Speaker 1: ball and look, he could be horrible. I totally understand

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Speaker 1: he could be absolutely awful, but I'm gonna bank on

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Speaker 1: him not being awful, and the total in this game

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Speaker 1: is seven and a half. So when you have a

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Speaker 1: total of seven and a half, it's hard to see

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Speaker 1: runs being scored in the first inning. The books are

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Speaker 1: saying this is gonna be a low scoring game. Across

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Speaker 1: the board, it's gonna be a low scoring game. So

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Speaker 1: to me, I'm gonna go ahead and put a half

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Speaker 1: a unit down on this. Okay, it'll be quick, it'll

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Speaker 1: be sweaty, it'll be nasty. But I think Wainwright and

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Speaker 1: Surezer I just don't see a lot of offense in

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Speaker 1: the National League. Okay, National League playoff game, two very

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Speaker 1: good pitchers. I know what the Dodgers do. I totally understand.

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Speaker 1: If we get banged with a solo home run, so

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Speaker 1: be it. We lose a half a unit. I'm okay

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Speaker 1: with it. But it's mine one twenty five. That's not horrible.

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Speaker 1: I think that's decent juice. Let's go no run in

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Speaker 1: the first inning, Cardinals Dodgers for a half a unit.

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Speaker 1: There will be another half a unit play coming at

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Speaker 1: some point during the day on the Discord channel. I'm

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Speaker 1: just not sure which one. I will have a full

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Speaker 1: unit in play for the Cardinals. And the Dodgers coming

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Speaker 1: up here today. So first bet, no runs in the

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Speaker 1: first inning. Dodgers and the Cardinals. Red Sox scored two

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Speaker 1: runs on a two run home run by Sender Bolgarts

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Speaker 1: in the first inning off Garrett Cole. Because I thought

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Speaker 1: Garrett Cole will get hit hard. I'm on the opposite

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Speaker 1: opinion of well, two stud pitchers who are going to

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Speaker 1: be taking the ball with a whole lot of attention

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Speaker 1: on them. Both offenses have been red hot. I totally

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Speaker 1: understand that, but maybe they get going the second of

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Speaker 1: the third or the fourth inning. Just nothing in the

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Speaker 1: first inning. I know the top hitters go at it.

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Speaker 1: I know it can be dangerous here, but a playoff game,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go no runs in the first inning at

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Speaker 1: minus one twenty five. It's plus one oh five on

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Speaker 1: the Yes, I thought about that, but that's contrary, and

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Speaker 1: it's gonna go against what you think is gonna happen.

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Speaker 1: But I think in these games in the National League,

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Speaker 1: I'm just going to kind of ride with the trend here.

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Speaker 1: Half a unit in minus one twenty five for the

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Speaker 1: first bet. The second bet, let's talk about the Phoenix

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Speaker 1: Mercury at home against the Las Vegas Aces. They're up

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Speaker 1: two games to one, and Vegas got throttled in Game

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Speaker 1: three eighty seven to sixty. The Mercury got off to

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Speaker 1: a good start and they have been doing a great

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Speaker 1: job on Asia Wilson eight points for her on two

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Speaker 1: of fourteen shooting. Vegas shot thirty one percent for that game.

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Speaker 1: This could be the first trip to the NBA Finals

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Speaker 1: for the Phoenix Mercury since twenty fourteen if they're able

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Speaker 1: to win this game. Interesting little twist. Game three was

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Speaker 1: not played at the Whole Arena due to well Disney

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Speaker 1: on ice, so they had to move it to a

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Speaker 1: different arena. This is now back at the Whole Arena

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Speaker 1: for the Phoenix Mercury, and they're playing a doubleheader with

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Speaker 1: the Suns and the Lakers preseason NBA basketball. I think

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Speaker 1: that matters one. I think there's gonna be a decent

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Speaker 1: crowd here for this game. And I got a home dog.

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Speaker 1: I got the Mercury plus two here at home against Vegas.

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Speaker 1: I don't really understand this. Vegas won the first game

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Speaker 1: ninety six to ninety, but then they got eviscerated in

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Speaker 1: the next game one seventeen to ninety one. And then

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Speaker 1: they lose Game two or Game three rather again by

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Speaker 1: twenty seven points. Like I'm this is almost like a

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Speaker 1: trap to me. I mean, Britney Griner has been insane.

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Speaker 1: She's been so good in this series. They were up

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Speaker 1: sixty eight to forty four late in the third quarter

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Speaker 1: in this game. It was completely lopsided. And I think

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Speaker 1: the Footprint Center in downtown Phoenix is it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: rocking here. The Suns, I mean, the Mercury have a

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Speaker 1: chance to get on with Suns fans and maybe introduce

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Speaker 1: some kids. It's a double headed for basketball, a chance

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Speaker 1: to go to the NBA Finals. I mean, my gosh,

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Speaker 1: I think Dana Tarassi and company, I don't think Vegas

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Speaker 1: plays defense well enough to stop what we're seeing here.

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Speaker 1: I think we're catching a team that's on the rise,

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Speaker 1: who's red hot, who has home court, and everyone's saying, well,

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Speaker 1: Vegas is gonna win it and enforce it back because

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Speaker 1: they were the best team or second best team, and

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Speaker 1: they advanced to this semi finals. They only lost eight

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Speaker 1: games all year. But the Mercury really are a tough

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Speaker 1: matchup for them, and because Liz Cambage has not played

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Speaker 1: the number of minutes as you would need her too

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Speaker 1: to have that double weapon of being Cambage and Wilson

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Speaker 1: this on the road. I'm just gonna go with what

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Speaker 1: my eyes are telling me, and my eyes are telling

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Speaker 1: me that the Mercury are gonna be able to keep

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Speaker 1: this going. And they're really good defensively, and they're holding

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Speaker 1: the aces really down. I mean they're four forty six

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Speaker 1: thirty one at halftime. I got a home dog here.

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Speaker 1: Give me the Mercury to go to the WNBA finals

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Speaker 1: plus two home dog Mercury, I'm gonna take. You can

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Speaker 1: take even money, even I thought plus one oh one

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Speaker 1: on the money, lin, if we want to go that route.

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Speaker 1: But I'll just take the two points at mis one

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Speaker 1: ten here justin keates, it's a one point victory for

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Speaker 1: for Vegas plus two Phoenix Mercury at home with a

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Speaker 1: doubleheader with the Phoenix Suns and the LA Lakers with

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Speaker 1: a big rocking crowd there. I'm gonna take the team

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Speaker 1: that I think is playing better to get a w

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Speaker 1: plus two Phoenix half a unit here for the WNBA

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Speaker 1: Game four of their of the semi finals. Okay, so

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Speaker 1: there is a baseball play first inning, no runs Cardinals

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Speaker 1: Dodgers tonight at Mis one twenty five, Phoenix home dog

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Speaker 1: at plus two in Game four of the WNBA Semi Finals,

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Speaker 1: Phoenix plus two. We're going there at mine one ten

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Speaker 1: for a half a unit and the Patriots and the

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Speaker 1: text I gave this out yesterday on the Discord channel.

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Speaker 1: Let me just go ahead and double check on this

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Speaker 1: as to where we are here for the numbers here

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Speaker 1: for at last check, this number had cratered for the

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Speaker 1: Patriots and the Houston Texans. It was nine and a

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Speaker 1: half when I gave it out. Let's see where we

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Speaker 1: are here for this game. Patriots have COVID problems, big

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Speaker 1: COVID problems. It's eight and a half now, so numbers

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Speaker 1: come down. It was a high of ten, it's now

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Speaker 1: down to eight and a half. I went ahead and

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Speaker 1: jumped on when it was nine and a half, so

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Speaker 1: it's come down a full point and a half. Here

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Speaker 1: is my thought. Everyone is going to assume that the

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Speaker 1: Texans are not going to be able to do anything

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Speaker 1: against the Patriots defense because they couldn't do anything against

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Speaker 1: Buffalo they lost forty to nothing. This is where people

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Speaker 1: get trapped looking at what happened last week and thinking

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Speaker 1: that the week before has got something to do with this.

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Speaker 1: I know that you've got Davis Mills, and I understand

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Speaker 1: you got a rookie. I get there's all sorts of

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Speaker 1: different people out there that are gonna tell you that

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Speaker 1: you know this is this is not going to be

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Speaker 1: a game with the Texans are gonna be in. The

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Speaker 1: Patriots are gonna kill them because they played well against Tampa.

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Speaker 1: The Patriots historically going down to the Texans because of

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Speaker 1: all the history. There are so many ex Patriots on

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Speaker 1: this game, on this roster for the Texans. They've got

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Speaker 1: former GMS in the Texas front office, They've got coaches

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Speaker 1: and players, and I mean it's insanity. Look, I mean

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Speaker 1: it's like eight players on this Texans roster who used

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Speaker 1: to play with the Patriots. It has been Patriots South

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Speaker 1: for a long time. This is their super Bowl in

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Speaker 1: a lot of ways, This is a huge game for them.

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Speaker 1: This is something that they circle on the calendar. I'm

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Speaker 1: not saying the Patriots are going to lose, but watching

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Speaker 1: the Patriot offense. Should the Patriots be double digit favorites

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Speaker 1: against anybody or nine and a half point favorites to anybody, No,

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Speaker 1: absolutely not. This is why being on the Discord channel

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Speaker 1: is important. Nine and a half was available when I

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Speaker 1: gave it out. Okay, we're going nine and a half

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Speaker 1: one full unit. Texans plus nine and a half against

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Speaker 1: the Patriots. I like that Texans defense. I know they

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Speaker 1: were better when they had Tyrod Taylor at the quarterback spot.

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Speaker 1: And I get it that Davis Mills is a questionable

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Speaker 1: quarterback right now and the way he's playing, I totally

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Speaker 1: get that. But they can run the ball and the

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Speaker 1: Patriots are gonna have it. I think that defense is

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Speaker 1: not halfway bad for the Texans. I really do. Don't

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Speaker 1: get caught Patriots in a big letdown spot. Okay, this

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Speaker 1: is a big letdown spot for New England after getting

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Speaker 1: up for two huge games with the Saints at home

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Speaker 1: and at home against Brady, to then turn around and

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Speaker 1: go on the road. It's a tough spot. Patriots can

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Speaker 1: win the game by three, but I think nine and

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Speaker 1: a half points is way too much. Texans plus nine

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Speaker 1: and a half for one unit. Coming up here on Sunday,

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Speaker 1: our first play for week number five of the NFL.

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Speaker 1: All right, so full card today for the Daily Juice.

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Speaker 1: We're going no runs in the first inning Cardinals and

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Speaker 1: the Dodgers. We're going Phoenix plus two in the WNBA

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Speaker 1: at home against Las Vegas Aces, Patriots, Texans Houston plus

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Speaker 1: nine and a half for one unit. Here going on Sunday,

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Speaker 1: Mine's Matt Paroltz. Follow me on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 1: Each and every morning, it's the Daily Juice podcast right

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Speaker 1: here on Bettingpros dot Com, always being brought to you

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Speaker 1: by bet MGM