1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,119 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Well, over these last 7 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:26,280 Speaker 1: fourteen months, everyone's lives have been disrupted to some degree, 8 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 1: some extraordinarily so. And that's true for corporate corporations as well. 9 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 1: And it's been fascinating to to kind of observe how 10 00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:37,199 Speaker 1: different companies UH manage their way through the pandemic, how 11 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:41,080 Speaker 1: different boards of directors help their management teams navigate through 12 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 1: these times. So it's a great time to speak for 13 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 1: our next guest, Denbisa Moyo. She is a global economist economist. 14 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:51,200 Speaker 1: She currently serves on the boards of Chevron and three 15 00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:53,960 Speaker 1: M and she has a new book out entitled How 16 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 1: Boards Work and How They Can Work Better in a 17 00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:59,280 Speaker 1: Chaotic World. Then, be said, thanks so much for joining 18 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 1: us here. You know, we don't have much hindsight here 19 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:03,960 Speaker 1: because we're just at the very early stages of coming 20 00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 1: out on the other side of this pandemic. But in general, 21 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 1: how do you think certain boards I guess reacted to 22 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 1: and then maybe plan for strategically how to you know, 23 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 1: evolve in this crazy world right now. Yeah. So the 24 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 1: truth is a number of companies found themselves in a 25 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 1: pretty stable and solid position, um, you know, to the 26 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 1: extent that from the financial perspective of their balance sheet, 27 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 1: from the operational perspective in terms of safety and just 28 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:37,280 Speaker 1: keeping the proverbial lights on, and then of course from 29 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:40,360 Speaker 1: the strategic aspect, so making sure that the business can 30 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:43,040 Speaker 1: survive through challenging times. There are a number of companies 31 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 1: that actually did perfectly fine. Um. The bigger issue is, 32 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 1: of course, there are a number of companies in the 33 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 1: US about fourteen to fifteen percent of American corporations UM, 34 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 1: that are incredibly vulnerable. They're known as zombie companies. By that, 35 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 1: I mean that they don't have enough even interest sorry 36 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: cats to cover the interest payment on their debt. And 37 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:05,440 Speaker 1: they were of course vulnerable from a balanchie perspective. Many 38 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:08,800 Speaker 1: companies struggled in terms of that switch from um sort 39 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 1: of bricks and motor operations into being deployed UH is 40 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:16,360 Speaker 1: from the remotely UM, and of course the strategic questions remain. 41 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 1: I'm wa seeing a lot of consolidation in the markets 42 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 1: right now, but I do think that this this experience 43 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 1: will separate the sort of what we used to say 44 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 1: back in the day, demand from the boys. UM. So 45 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:29,680 Speaker 1: I think it has been quite a jarring experience of 46 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 1: many companies. I guess E s G is, do we 47 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:40,919 Speaker 1: consider it the most important issue going forward for boards? Well, listen, 48 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 1: it's become an existential crisis. M E. S G is 49 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:47,440 Speaker 1: part and parcel of how companies are thinking about themselves 50 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 1: longer term, and obviously we're talking about environmental, social and 51 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 1: governance issues. UM. You know, I think that the broader 52 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 1: environment remains quite challenged in terms of economic growth beyond 53 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:03,520 Speaker 1: this year's rebound. How we thinking about technology, demographic ships, income, inequality, 54 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 1: climate change, All these aspects are very much front and 55 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:11,160 Speaker 1: center of the minds of board members but also CEOs 56 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 1: and and business leaders as they think about how to 57 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:17,119 Speaker 1: navigate not just the post COVID environment in the short term, 58 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 1: but longer term, how it is we're going to run 59 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:22,400 Speaker 1: these businesses UM in the longer term and in a 60 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 1: very challenged world. With China rising deglobalization, digitization, et cetera. 61 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 1: I'm curious how a board, how a company like Chevron 62 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 1: approaches that, because clearly Chevron's businesses fossil fuels. On the 63 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 1: other hand, it's not like it would be it would 64 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 1: be bad if they just everyone stopped making oil right 65 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 1: all of a sudden. Their needs we need these products. 66 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 1: So how does a company like Chevron approach E s G. Well, 67 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:53,960 Speaker 1: I think it's important to put this in context. Um, 68 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:56,120 Speaker 1: you know, they're on the one hand, there are people 69 00:03:56,160 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 1: who are pushing very aggressively for defunding UH energy companies, 70 00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 1: and I think that there's a missed opportunity here because 71 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 1: they tend to over overshadow, overlook the point that there 72 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:09,800 Speaker 1: are one point five billion people around the world who've 73 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 1: got no access to energy in a cost effective and 74 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:16,360 Speaker 1: sustainable way, and it's just not reasonable for society to 75 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 1: leave those people in energy poverty, given the broader macroeconomic risks. 76 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 1: But just in terms of how the best companies and 77 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:27,280 Speaker 1: corporations are viewing the E s G agenda, it's not 78 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 1: just about risk mitigation and thinking about greenhouse gas intensity 79 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 1: and thinking about carbon intensity. All those things are critically important, 80 00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 1: but we also have to think about investing and looking 81 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:42,799 Speaker 1: at ways to continue to grow these businesses but also 82 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:45,920 Speaker 1: to grow the global economy and make sure that we 83 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:49,839 Speaker 1: continue to progress and in terms of human progress more generally. So, 84 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 1: I think that whatever the issue is in terms of 85 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 1: e s g. Not just climate change, but issues of 86 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 1: worker advocacy, racial diversity of course, gender diversity as well. UM, 87 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 1: couldn't turns around China's rise. Uh, you know, areas of obesity, 88 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:06,479 Speaker 1: voter rights, all of these things have to be looked 89 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 1: at in a in a more sort of thoughtful and 90 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 1: constructive and pragmatic way. And that's that's what I think 91 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 1: the best corporations are doing. Basic based upon your experience, UM, 92 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 1: what are your views of globalization? There was arguably since 93 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 1: the end of World War to the world has become smaller, 94 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:27,640 Speaker 1: it's become a much more global market um over the 95 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 1: last fifty years. But then under the prior administration, there 96 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 1: was a move back to make America first on shoring 97 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:37,840 Speaker 1: some businesses. Um, how do you view as you sit 98 00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 1: on those boards of two global companies, how do you 99 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 1: think about globalization? How does corporate America think about globalization? Well? 100 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:49,320 Speaker 1: Look that the textbooks are very clear theoretically globalization and 101 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 1: by that I mean the movements of trade and in 102 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 1: trade of goods of services UM. Capital flows, moving capital 103 00:05:56,440 --> 00:05:59,359 Speaker 1: in what we traditionally call the carry trade, borrowing in 104 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 1: places like London in New York at low interest rates, 105 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 1: investing in high risk adjusted high return places like Brazil 106 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:09,280 Speaker 1: or South Africa. UM. You know, looking at the immigration, 107 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:13,680 Speaker 1: movement of people across borders, global standards, global cooperation, all 108 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 1: these five elements of globalization. There is absolutely no doubt 109 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 1: about it from historical evidence UM that these aspects, when 110 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 1: they are at full function UM do contribute to broadening 111 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 1: economic growth, the sort of expansion of the g d 112 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:31,839 Speaker 1: P PIE and human progress. That being said, we have 113 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 1: to be aware and since this is the fact that 114 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 1: there have been pockets of the population around the world 115 00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:40,239 Speaker 1: UM that have been left behind UM. And that's where 116 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:44,400 Speaker 1: the schism and the challenges emerge for globalization. As we 117 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:46,840 Speaker 1: have seen, it's led to Brexit, it's led to the 118 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 1: American America first type of policies. And my view is 119 00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:54,840 Speaker 1: that from again to a very pragmatic since UM globalization 120 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:58,520 Speaker 1: should be pursued, but understanding that we need to make 121 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 1: sure that everyone participating in this expansion, and that requires 122 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 1: a little bit more temerity, but also thoughtfulness with respect 123 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 1: to how we approach a globalization. It can't be full 124 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,760 Speaker 1: hog as we know it's in the textbook. But at 125 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 1: the same time, I think we should not be pursuing 126 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:20,320 Speaker 1: a very aggressive progressive era. All right, Don Visa, thanks 127 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:22,960 Speaker 1: very much for joining us, Don Visa. That Moyo there. 128 00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 1: She is global economists currently serving on the boards of 129 00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 1: Chevron and three am great to get her views on 130 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,440 Speaker 1: these issues. Also, she's one of Time magazines one hundred 131 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 1: most influential people in the world. This is Bloomberg. You 132 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 1: got some economic data out today. US housing starts They 133 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:49,160 Speaker 1: felt by more than forecast in April, suggesting that supply 134 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:53,720 Speaker 1: chain constraints and rising material costs continue to hold builders back. 135 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:56,880 Speaker 1: Let's get some more color on the housing business and 136 00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:59,080 Speaker 1: the construction business. We do that with Dr Jack Tchung 137 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 1: ce Oh of James Hardy Industries. That is a publicly 138 00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:06,560 Speaker 1: traded company. Uh. Dr Tron, thanks so much for joining 139 00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 1: us here. We've been hearing about supply chain shortages across 140 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 1: a number of industries here. As the world's economies begin 141 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:17,200 Speaker 1: to ramp up talk to us about those supply chain 142 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 1: challenges in the housing market. Good more and Paul, thank 143 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 1: you for having me. UM. Yes, you certainly within the 144 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 1: housing industry relative to new construction, is that we have 145 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 1: experienced a really the shortage of lumber UM as well 146 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 1: as the escalating prices in lumber UM. And then compounding 147 00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 1: the issue too is that there is anso a lack 148 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 1: of labor skill, labor that that that really allowed the 149 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 1: builders to to complete those new housing starts. UM. So 150 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:55,560 Speaker 1: that's really been an issue that as an industry, particularly 151 00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 1: a new construction UM that that have been played with 152 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:02,920 Speaker 1: during the past six months. So it's not about I mean, 153 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:07,319 Speaker 1: you want to build as much as as possible. UM. 154 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:10,000 Speaker 1: You want to get out there, get the land, you'll 155 00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 1: build on spec all no problem, right, because the demand 156 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:15,560 Speaker 1: is there. It's just that you don't have the stuff 157 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 1: or the people that you need. UM. That's correct, Paul. 158 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:22,160 Speaker 1: I mean the the demand has been very strong UM. 159 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 1: And you know, just just to give you a little perspective, 160 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 1: I mean, UM, there is during the past decade, if 161 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 1: if you look at the total new single family constructions 162 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 1: UM in the in the US during the past decade, 163 00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 1: there is only about seven mill millions homes, the single 164 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:46,959 Speaker 1: family homes that were built. And and this was really 165 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:51,400 Speaker 1: compared to eleven million homes that would build every decade 166 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 1: in the previous five decades UM. So certainly you know 167 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:58,960 Speaker 1: there is a there's a shortage of new single family 168 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:02,560 Speaker 1: homes in the US UM and what the what the 169 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:05,080 Speaker 1: trend that we see right now is really just, uh, 170 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 1: the market is catching up the the demand is really strong, 171 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:14,560 Speaker 1: and then supply is really trying to catch up. You know. 172 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:16,920 Speaker 1: The one thing we've been hearing a lot about but 173 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:19,439 Speaker 1: I didn't think about it for the construction business is 174 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:22,400 Speaker 1: labor shortages. So talk to us about that. I mean, 175 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:26,439 Speaker 1: it's one thing for McDonald's or to be raising its 176 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 1: minimum wage or Amazon to be raising its minimum wage 177 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:31,200 Speaker 1: to attract workers. But I always thought, you know, housing 178 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 1: construction jobs were pretty good paying jobs. Talk to us 179 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 1: about the labor aspect. Yeah, you know, it's a it 180 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 1: is a is a good paying jobs. But you know, 181 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:45,560 Speaker 1: within construction because of all all the different type of 182 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:49,199 Speaker 1: uh um job that's going on, and you need someone 183 00:10:49,280 --> 00:10:54,119 Speaker 1: to who have to feel the concrete, to phone the foundation, 184 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:56,640 Speaker 1: you need a skill that really do the roof, and 185 00:10:56,840 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 1: the skills person that uh that really put the siding on, 186 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:03,760 Speaker 1: the skill person to put on the interior home, the 187 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 1: electrician and so on. So so it's really you need 188 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 1: to have different type of skill labor to recomplete the home. UM. 189 00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:14,200 Speaker 1: So it's UM. You know, with the since the last 190 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:19,080 Speaker 1: bubble in UM in the housing crisis a decade ago, UM, 191 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 1: the industry has lost a few of those labor. And 192 00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 1: then certainly during the past few years with the restriction 193 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:31,520 Speaker 1: on the immigration UM coming from from south of the country, 194 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:36,200 Speaker 1: we certainly saw a lack of that labor as well. 195 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:40,240 Speaker 1: So it's really a confluence of two factors that really 196 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:44,319 Speaker 1: affect the the new home construction in the US today, 197 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 1: the lack of lumber and then also the lack of 198 00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:52,079 Speaker 1: skill labor. But if you're able to get more for homes, 199 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 1: I guess you're able to then offer more pay And 200 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 1: would that help you attract more labor or is it 201 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 1: are they just simply not there? UM? It's it certainly helps, 202 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:07,120 Speaker 1: but it's not gonna be able to attract enough labor 203 00:12:07,280 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 1: to UM to complete homes. And it's certainly, like I 204 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 1: mentioned before, with the lack of lumber it's also slowly 205 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:17,079 Speaker 1: down as well. But you know, how how we think 206 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 1: about James Hardy is that you know a third of 207 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:23,800 Speaker 1: our business is really exposed to new construction, but the 208 00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:28,199 Speaker 1: other two thirds really exposed to UH the renovation and 209 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:32,440 Speaker 1: UH and then UM market and and for that market 210 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:35,640 Speaker 1: is quite strong. UM. It is you know, with the 211 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:39,439 Speaker 1: COVID condition that's happening right now, you see a lot 212 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:42,480 Speaker 1: more UM folks that stay at home and walk from 213 00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 1: home and so the really UM having a beauty, beautiful 214 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:50,839 Speaker 1: home and then extension of the home will be a 215 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 1: key part of of of the growth in that sector. UM. 216 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:57,199 Speaker 1: And also with that sector as you renovate your home, 217 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:00,520 Speaker 1: the need for lumbers not as critical as it is 218 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:04,599 Speaker 1: in new obstruction. Alright, really interesting insight and it was 219 00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:08,640 Speaker 1: great to get your take on what's going on the industry. Jack, 220 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Dr Jack Drawing, the 221 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 1: CEO of James Hardy Industries, get overnight A David Deeds. 222 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 1: He's the managing principal and senior portfolio strategist at pe 223 00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:24,840 Speaker 1: Pack Private Wealth Management. They got about ten billion dollars 224 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:29,000 Speaker 1: and assets under management. David, I guess the key question, UH, 225 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:33,600 Speaker 1: from thirty five thousand feet is do you see rapid 226 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 1: growth um in the reopening and is that accompanied by 227 00:13:38,840 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 1: you know, real temporary, real permanent inflation or is it 228 00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:47,880 Speaker 1: more of a transient inflation issue. Well, Matt, you put 229 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:51,480 Speaker 1: your finger on the sixty dollar question. You know, at 230 00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:54,640 Speaker 1: this point no one really knows. I think we are 231 00:13:54,760 --> 00:14:00,199 Speaker 1: seeing rapid growth, notwithstanding the housing start report today with 232 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:03,480 Speaker 1: its economy opening up, opening up as the pandemic wanes. 233 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:08,319 Speaker 1: We've got huge fiscal stimulus from UH various packages, and 234 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 1: there could be a an infrastructure bill on the way, 235 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 1: and of course we have record low interest rates. All 236 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:17,200 Speaker 1: of that is a real tail wind behind the economy. Now, 237 00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 1: last week we had two reports consumer prices producer prices, 238 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 1: which suggested much faster than expect inflation. But when you 239 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:27,960 Speaker 1: do the deep dive, Matt, you see that those alone 240 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:31,680 Speaker 1: don't answer your question because of what was driving the increase. 241 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:35,240 Speaker 1: It was prices on used cars. It was prices on 242 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 1: car rentals and prices on hotel stays. You know, a 243 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 1: year ago those industries were left for dead under the lockdown. 244 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:45,200 Speaker 1: Of course, now, for example, the use cars were up 245 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 1: ten percent, biggest since nineteen fifty three, But something tells 246 00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:50,680 Speaker 1: us that a year from now we're not going to 247 00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:54,960 Speaker 1: see another ten percent uh hike in used car prices. 248 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 1: We think it's a temporary thing. So who knows? You 249 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 1: know this is this is the question. You can't rule 250 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 1: either scenario completely out, Matt David. We're just finishing up 251 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:08,920 Speaker 1: what has been a very strong earnings reporting season, and 252 00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 1: a lot of folks are saying, boy, we certainly needed that, 253 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 1: we need more of it because this is an expensive market. 254 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 1: This is a market that maybe these needs to grow 255 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:21,240 Speaker 1: into its multiple. How do you think about valuation here, Well, 256 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 1: evaluations are at the upper bounds of what we've historically seen, 257 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 1: close to twenty two times forward earnings UM, and when 258 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 1: you look at other metrics like price to sales, like 259 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 1: the value of the entire stock market relatives to the GDP, 260 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 1: we're off the charts. On the other hand, it's all 261 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:43,320 Speaker 1: justifiable because of these low interest rates. But we also 262 00:15:43,440 --> 00:15:46,920 Speaker 1: have UM, as you pointed out, great corporate earnings growth, 263 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:49,960 Speaker 1: and I think we're gonna see Q two going to 264 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 1: again have great earnings growth because of course, the comparisons 265 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 1: are gonna be versus the second quarter last year when 266 00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 1: we're virtually on lockdown. But then you're gonna see still 267 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 1: positive but slowing earnings growth in the second half of 268 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:06,240 Speaker 1: this year, and positive but again slower growth next year 269 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:08,880 Speaker 1: in two thousand twenty two, And that's where the rubber 270 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 1: is going to hit the road. Will that earnings growth 271 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:15,640 Speaker 1: continue to be sufficient to withstand these higher multiples? I 272 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:18,840 Speaker 1: think of interest rates continued low? Yes, If not, it's 273 00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 1: going to be a stock biggers market. That's the point. 274 00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 1: I mean, this market is priced for a um, no 275 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 1: more lockdowns, right, a total and complete reopening and be 276 00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 1: um no interest rate increases from the FED or really 277 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 1: even uh tapering until what the end of two Yeah, 278 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 1: you know, I think that's right, and so the way 279 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:47,400 Speaker 1: we've been, you know the but the problem is, of course, 280 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:52,480 Speaker 1: Matt is if not stocks, then what cryptospacs, money markets? 281 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 1: You know, there's no easy choices here. So I think 282 00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 1: we're continuing to stay stay say, stay the course, but 283 00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:02,840 Speaker 1: perhaps to your PORTFOLI to those areas of the market 284 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:05,680 Speaker 1: which have not done so well for the last ten years, 285 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:09,440 Speaker 1: but with a rapidly expanding economy, with interest rates starting 286 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:12,120 Speaker 1: to move up with a whiff of inflation, could do better. 287 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 1: Those are your cyclical names, your value names. Those may 288 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:17,240 Speaker 1: be the best bets going forward. All right, Dan, I 289 00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 1: know you're not not afraid to talk names here. Given 290 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 1: a backdrop that you see out there in terms of inflation, 291 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:24,440 Speaker 1: in terms of rates. What are some of the names 292 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 1: you guys are doing some work on these days. Yeah. Absolutely, 293 00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:29,959 Speaker 1: So we like a name like all State. I mean, 294 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 1: you know, here's a company that about ten times s 295 00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:34,880 Speaker 1: eartings with a yield about two and a half percent, 296 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:37,159 Speaker 1: so you're getting a full one percent more than that 297 00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 1: ten year treasury. Uh. They've had better than expected claims 298 00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:43,400 Speaker 1: experience because of course no one was driving. But there's 299 00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:46,119 Speaker 1: no reason why that company can't continue to grow with 300 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 1: a prosperous economy. And of course they're only paying out 301 00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 1: about twenty of their profits in the fourth dividends. That 302 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:56,600 Speaker 1: they can crank that dividend up. It seems if someone said, well, 303 00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:58,399 Speaker 1: five years from now, you're gonna be better off of 304 00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:00,200 Speaker 1: the ten year treasure, you're gonna be better all in 305 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:03,879 Speaker 1: a company like all State, All State looks good. Um. Uh. 306 00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:07,320 Speaker 1: You know, we also like a company like General Motors 307 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:11,119 Speaker 1: because of course, you know, uh, to the extent that 308 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:15,879 Speaker 1: the semiconductor, uh supply permits. They're just selling cars as 309 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 1: fast as they can make them. GM very low valuation. 310 00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:21,920 Speaker 1: They too, like Tesla of course moving to the e 311 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 1: V space, but they're not prices though. They're gonna be 312 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:27,480 Speaker 1: a big TV player, but of course they will be ultimately. 313 00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 1: So we think GM makes a lot of sense here. 314 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:32,680 Speaker 1: I just got about thirty seconds. Still like Viacom CBS. 315 00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:35,960 Speaker 1: It's hot day for them today. Um, but you know 316 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:37,600 Speaker 1: this is one this is one of the socks that 317 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:42,119 Speaker 1: Bill Wang got burned on. Well yeah he did. I 318 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:44,000 Speaker 1: mean the stock got up too close to a hundred. 319 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 1: Viacom quite astutely sold stock to institutional investors at eight five. 320 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:51,400 Speaker 1: What were they thinking, Well, guess what is it better 321 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:53,440 Speaker 1: buy now when it's in the low forties. And I 322 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:58,159 Speaker 1: think the um appeal of the entertainment and media and 323 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:01,840 Speaker 1: content stocks was underscored first of course with the Warner 324 00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:05,280 Speaker 1: Media and Discovery combination. And of course today we just 325 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 1: learned that Amazon is looking at the MGM studios for 326 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:11,199 Speaker 1: their content and so forth. So it makes a lot 327 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:13,359 Speaker 1: of sense. All right, David, thank you so much for 328 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:16,200 Speaker 1: joining us. As always, we appreciate you, appreciate your thoughts 329 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:18,200 Speaker 1: on the market and the names you're looking at. David 330 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 1: Deet's managing principle and senior portfolio strategists at Pepeck Private 331 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:27,960 Speaker 1: Wealth Management, located in beautiful Bucolic Summit, New Jersey. This 332 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:35,119 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg, all right. The news of the day, I 333 00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 1: think is, you know, as it relates to Global Wall Street, 334 00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 1: is what's going on at JP Morgan and putting two 335 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:43,720 Speaker 1: of the contenders vying to succeed chief executive Jamie Diamond 336 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 1: in charge of its sprawling consumer banking operation. Let's get 337 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:49,080 Speaker 1: some color on thatw We bring in Allison Williams. She's 338 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:51,639 Speaker 1: a senior banks analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. She's been following 339 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:54,840 Speaker 1: this industry for decades, both on the by side in 340 00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:58,159 Speaker 1: the South side. She knows all the players here. So Alison, 341 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,120 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. Um, Jamie Dimon 342 00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:03,760 Speaker 1: is not going anywhere soon, is he? But I guess 343 00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:06,840 Speaker 1: they're still trying to think about some succession plans. Is 344 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:10,919 Speaker 1: that's what's going on here? Sure? So you know Jamie 345 00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:15,159 Speaker 1: Diamond's infamous line is every time someone asked him how 346 00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:16,920 Speaker 1: long he's going to stay on, he always says five 347 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:20,800 Speaker 1: more years. And he says that every year. UM. So uh, 348 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:23,240 Speaker 1: they'll be conferences in the coming weeks and we'll see 349 00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:26,560 Speaker 1: if he continues to say that. So the big news 350 00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:31,200 Speaker 1: really is, um, you know, obviously the promotion of the 351 00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:36,600 Speaker 1: two former CFOs to head the Consumer Bank. UM. You know, 352 00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 1: I think because people have been watching, especially Marianne Um 353 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:44,879 Speaker 1: Lake who was a longtime CFO. She was replaced by 354 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:49,680 Speaker 1: jen Keepsack um more recently. UM, And so I think 355 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,879 Speaker 1: you know, all eyes are on these two women to 356 00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 1: see if one of them will become the contender. UM. However, 357 00:20:56,280 --> 00:21:00,359 Speaker 1: for the moment, Um Pinto is really the Soul six user. 358 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:04,679 Speaker 1: So UM, just just to hopefully I'm being clear that UM, 359 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:08,480 Speaker 1: Pinto and Smith were basically the co leaders of the bank. 360 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 1: Smith is retiring, which puts Pinto in the air apparent position. 361 00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:17,440 Speaker 1: But I think all eyes are on, um, the two 362 00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 1: former CFOs who were promoted to have the Consumer Bank, 363 00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 1: to see if one of those women will rise to 364 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:29,960 Speaker 1: be the new CEO. So, just to recap, then we're 365 00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:34,680 Speaker 1: saying Pinto is the successor is the air apparent right now? 366 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:39,639 Speaker 1: But we're watching Marianne Lake and Jennifer peep Sack in 367 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 1: case they want not Pinto office pedestal. Well, it depends, right, 368 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:48,919 Speaker 1: So like, let's say that Diamonds stepped down tomorrow, Pinto 369 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:51,639 Speaker 1: is obviously the air apparents. Um. You know, if you 370 00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:54,240 Speaker 1: went back a few years ago, UM, it would have 371 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:58,240 Speaker 1: been Pinto or Smith. I think that, um, you know, 372 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:02,200 Speaker 1: putting Marianne Late and Jen Peepsack in charge of the 373 00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:07,040 Speaker 1: Consumer Bank sort of puts them into a runoff, right. So, UM, 374 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 1: let's say, jaman so Jamie Diamond steps down tomorrow, Pinto's 375 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 1: in charge. We wait five more years, as Jamie always does. 376 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:18,560 Speaker 1: Over the next couple of years, we would expect, um 377 00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 1: that either Lake or peep Sack rises to be the 378 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 1: um leader of the Consumer Bank. Um, and then there's 379 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:32,840 Speaker 1: sort of a runoff between that leader and Pinto Alison. 380 00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:35,879 Speaker 1: What does the market think about the tenure or the 381 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:39,040 Speaker 1: or the I guess the future with Jamie Diamond. I mean, 382 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 1: obviously Jamie Diamond is is you know rock Star CEO 383 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:46,600 Speaker 1: has delivered for shareholders? Um. I presume shareholders are extraordinarily 384 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:48,960 Speaker 1: supportive of him. In theory, do they want him to 385 00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 1: stay as long as he wants to and as long 386 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:55,560 Speaker 1: as he continues to perform they do, UM, but I 387 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:59,480 Speaker 1: think they also do recognize UM that there is a 388 00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:02,400 Speaker 1: very strong bench. I would say that, you know, all 389 00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:04,879 Speaker 1: three of the people that UM we discussed are very 390 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 1: well respected UM on Wall Street, UM, Pinto and Lake 391 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,560 Speaker 1: perhaps a little bit better known because of UM they're 392 00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,520 Speaker 1: more forward facing walls over a longer period of time. 393 00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:21,119 Speaker 1: Is he the most beloved major Wall Street CEO? I mean, 394 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,600 Speaker 1: the most revered. I don't know what what word to use, 395 00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:29,400 Speaker 1: but he's basically the man to watch on Wall Street? Right? Well, yeah, 396 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,920 Speaker 1: he's the He's the only CEO commandaged through both of 397 00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:36,680 Speaker 1: the recent crisis, right, So, UM he managed to the 398 00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:40,479 Speaker 1: prior crisis. UM. You know, Lloyd Blankfine had had stucked 399 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:42,919 Speaker 1: down and paved the way for Solomon, which was actually 400 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:46,200 Speaker 1: a good transition period, right because when Solomon was in place, 401 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 1: and I think that's that's sort of what they wanted, 402 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,359 Speaker 1: is to have the new Seaton in place when the 403 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:55,359 Speaker 1: next crisis happened. So, and I would remind you that 404 00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:58,479 Speaker 1: actually in the beginning of this crisis, about a year ago, 405 00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,600 Speaker 1: Jamie Diamond was in the hospital at all and Pinto 406 00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:04,920 Speaker 1: and Smith we're actually running the bank as co CEOs 407 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:09,000 Speaker 1: for a period of time. So um, you know now, uh, 408 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:12,639 Speaker 1: Pinjo will be the one that has that experience going forward. 409 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:15,399 Speaker 1: All right, Alice, thanks so much for joining us. Really 410 00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:19,800 Speaker 1: appreciated that you must be very busy today considering everything 411 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:23,359 Speaker 1: that that we're up against. Alison Williams, Senior analyst for 412 00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:27,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. 413 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,760 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts 414 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:34,880 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm 415 00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:38,959 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller three. Put on full Sweeney 416 00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:41,560 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney before the podcast. You 417 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,000 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.