1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:10,559 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 2: Through open Ai. That's the latest big AI tech company 7 00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 2: to announce its intention to go public, and of course 8 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:36,199 Speaker 2: it comes on the heels of SpaceX, potentially listing as 9 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:38,279 Speaker 2: early as this Friday. The IPO is supposed to be 10 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 2: priced on Thursday, and Anthropic filing confidentially for an IPO 11 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:46,200 Speaker 2: in the recent weeks. So let's bring in our next guest. 12 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:48,920 Speaker 2: He is Dan Ives. Dan is global head of Technology 13 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:52,239 Speaker 2: Research at Webbush Securities, and Dan, I'm curious to hear 14 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 2: from you whether being the last of the three mega 15 00:00:56,120 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 2: tech IPOs is a good place or potentially a troubling 16 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:03,360 Speaker 2: place for open Ai. Is the company? Is any company 17 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:06,640 Speaker 2: really at risk of the public market capital exhausting itself 18 00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 2: because there's a lot of money that needs to find 19 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 2: a home for these companies. 20 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I'd start at the ladder. I don't 21 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 3: think there's a risk, you know, in terms of if 22 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 3: you're last, there's no more tap. I mean, look, we're 23 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 3: coing at three the core foundational pieces of the AI 24 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:29,199 Speaker 3: revolution and toropic Open AI. Of course SpaceX look first 25 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 3: to market. There's an advantage. It's important and that's why 26 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 3: this is going to be a continued sort of battle 27 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:40,319 Speaker 3: arms race between open AI and DROPIC and that's essential 28 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 3: what investors are watching. Obviously SpaceX a you know, very 29 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:46,959 Speaker 3: important on this watershed moment for the overall markets this week. 30 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 3: But to get the popcorn down, I mean, it's just starting. 31 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 4: For our viewers on YouTube. I always try to figure 32 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 4: out where in the world is Dana eyes when we 33 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:57,760 Speaker 4: have them on via zoom, because it could be anywhere 34 00:01:57,760 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 4: literally on the place. 35 00:01:58,920 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 2: Joined us from Asia. 36 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 4: I know everywhere. I don't know. 37 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 2: In the middle of his night today, I can't figure it. 38 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 4: I think there's in a bunker somewhere like an a Pentagon. 39 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 4: But Dan talks us about what's the feedback? 40 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:10,920 Speaker 3: Just got off the Red Eye. But I know what 41 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 3: a better place to be than we deal with you? 42 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 4: That exactly appreciate that. 43 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:15,480 Speaker 5: Dan. 44 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 4: We're day three of the roadshow for space X. What 45 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:19,840 Speaker 4: are the what's some of the feedback you're hearing from 46 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 4: your institutional investor clients. 47 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:25,120 Speaker 3: Look, I think the big focus is just is it 48 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:27,640 Speaker 3: a space play? Is it a data play? 49 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 5: Right? 50 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:31,520 Speaker 3: I mean, I think that's really how investors overall are 51 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:34,400 Speaker 3: focused on SpaceX. O can I continue to believe like 52 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 3: when it comes to SpaceX, it's much more on data 53 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 3: and AI and the ecosystem than maybe just when you 54 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:46,360 Speaker 3: think about space and its first sort of phase. But 55 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 3: what we were talking about what's going to be a 56 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 3: decade build out a space and it's not just about SpaceX, 57 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:55,720 Speaker 3: it's about the broader sector than now investors are really 58 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 3: starting to focus. You're now going to have in sutional month, 59 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:02,080 Speaker 3: not just retail, You're going to have a space on orst. 60 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 2: Very well said, And I guess the question is how 61 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 2: do people value it going forward? Because there's different explanations 62 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:14,360 Speaker 2: for whether this is a rocket company, a data company, 63 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 2: as you put it, or kind of a vertically integrated 64 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:20,320 Speaker 2: new technology company, which is kind of what Elon Musk 65 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:23,919 Speaker 2: is envisioning here in the same way that Tessa started 66 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:26,240 Speaker 2: off as an electric vehicle company and has become a 67 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:29,960 Speaker 2: lot more. How are you anticipating Elon to kind of 68 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:34,079 Speaker 2: set the benchmark for how he's going to talk about 69 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 2: the the kinds of numbers that SpaceX can achieve. We 70 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 2: got a sense of it through the IPO perspectus, but 71 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:42,119 Speaker 2: you know he's going to have to manage expectations quarter 72 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 2: after quarter here. 73 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, no doubt, as well as what's on the rise. 74 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 3: And look, I think Tessa is a good group print 75 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 3: because you look, can you go back right? I mean, 76 00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 3: you know when it came out here Mini bet against 77 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 3: Mask Tessa in numbers, in terms in the near term, 78 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 3: and then Alton what's out to be nonsense really changed 79 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 3: the world. I think to some extent, if you're buying 80 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 3: space X, you're buying Musk. I mean you're buying into 81 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 3: the Musk ecosystem now the challenge and the opportunity to 82 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,560 Speaker 3: build that out execution step by step. But it's also 83 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:20,720 Speaker 3: argue like in a year has some merger. We've said 84 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 3: over eighty percent chance between SpaceX and Testa Dan. 85 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:28,600 Speaker 4: It was an important day yesterday for our friends in 86 00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:33,120 Speaker 4: Coopertino Apple and with their AI story and the narrative there, 87 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 4: what did you learn from their announcement? 88 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, being there lives, I think this 89 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 3: was one where a lot different than the last two 90 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 3: years in a great way, because two years ago there 91 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:48,039 Speaker 3: was all the promise and none of that really came true. 92 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:51,560 Speaker 3: Last year, it was kind of really absent in terms 93 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 3: of AI strategics. I mean, Paul, now you finally have 94 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:58,680 Speaker 3: an AI strategy. It's finally a foundational piece that you 95 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 3: could sell into the eCos They're no longer watchers from 96 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:04,359 Speaker 3: the sideline. They're not going to be an anthropical and 97 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:05,400 Speaker 3: open a eye, but. 98 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:06,159 Speaker 5: They don't need to be. 99 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:09,039 Speaker 3: You have one point five billion iPhones and I think 100 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:11,160 Speaker 3: this is really going to be the start of mondivation 101 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 3: when it comes to AI. They laid it out, but 102 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:18,479 Speaker 3: now devices will file the hardware ecosystem build up and 103 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 3: I think what this is going to do services and 104 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:23,960 Speaker 3: obviously stocks off in terms of what we've seen knee jerk, 105 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 3: but I think this is one It leads the foundation 106 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 3: for turnus as a baton t hander from Cook. 107 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:33,520 Speaker 2: Were you disappointed that Turners didn't speak? Some people have 108 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:38,360 Speaker 2: cited that as one reason why overall the unveiling of 109 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 2: the AI infuse SORIY is not impressing investors. Today the 110 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 2: stock is down two point nine percent, and yesterday when 111 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 2: the stock gave up its early gains. 112 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this is it took shut. I mean 113 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:54,280 Speaker 3: you're talking about you know, Mount Rushmore, Hall of Fame 114 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 3: or CEO. You don't want turnus there. I think that 115 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:00,720 Speaker 3: would take away a little of the spot. I mean, 116 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 3: this is really cook handing the last WWDC afterwards obviously 117 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 3: been just a historical, legendary market. But some of it 118 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:15,039 Speaker 3: it's going to be execution. Now it's like executing. It's 119 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:18,600 Speaker 3: showing developers, it's building it out. I think investors, they 120 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:21,359 Speaker 3: always tend to be skeptical on APP. I think this 121 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 3: time is different. 122 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:25,480 Speaker 2: Okay, so let's talk about the fact that this time 123 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:28,360 Speaker 2: it's different. What does you know the unveiling of this 124 00:06:28,440 --> 00:06:31,039 Speaker 2: new series mean for developers. Do they walk away with 125 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 2: a clear roadmap for how to integrate their offerings with 126 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:37,360 Speaker 2: Apple's ecosystem or does this remain a wait and see 127 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:39,440 Speaker 2: like it has been for the past two years. 128 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 3: Well, I think they finally got what they want. I 129 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:45,520 Speaker 3: think it's developers now that they actually have the platform 130 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:48,279 Speaker 3: to build out. This is no longer something on a 131 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 3: whiteboard or there's some conceptual Now it's actually going to 132 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:54,799 Speaker 3: be the put And also it's about the app actually 133 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:58,360 Speaker 3: shape them building. It's about Gemini obviously as a foundation, 134 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 3: which isn't just cooking cut Gemini in terms of what 135 00:07:01,200 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 3: they've built. And now Apple is basically saying, like from 136 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:08,839 Speaker 3: a privacy security you, your data is will not going 137 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 3: to be shared externally. And now it's the start of 138 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 3: how they monetize it. Cloud, more applications, more devices that 139 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 3: ultimately feed into this the consumer AI revolution. Apple They're 140 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 3: essentially they're they're a toll collector on the AI consumer highway. 141 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 142 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 143 00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Cocklay and Android 144 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:45,880 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 145 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 146 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:51,880 Speaker 4: Comana Royal joints us here. She's a tech reporter for 147 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 4: Bloomberg News. She and Dana Hall have a great, great 148 00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:59,360 Speaker 4: story out today. SpaceX IPO forces investors to bet on 149 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 4: must entangled AI empire. Carmen, thanks much for joining us 150 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 4: here in studio. I guess this IPO is really just 151 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 4: a bet on Elon Musk and his vision and all 152 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 4: that type of stuff. But he's got a lot of 153 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 4: interest out there and a lot of different companies. How 154 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:18,240 Speaker 4: do investors thinking about that? 155 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:20,240 Speaker 6: Yeah, that's exactly kind of like the point we tried 156 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 6: to do with the story. It's like it's not only 157 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 6: a bet on this specific company, It's like all his 158 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 6: companies have like intermingling businesses and it's becoming more so. 159 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:32,600 Speaker 6: He's trying to create this like vertically integrated AI company 160 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 6: basically that has all the supply chain in it. So 161 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:38,600 Speaker 6: if you're buying SpaceX stock, you need to take all 162 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:42,960 Speaker 6: of Elon's world into account, not just the company itself. 163 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:46,800 Speaker 2: It kind of reminds me of how Tessel was once 164 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:50,120 Speaker 2: upon a time an electric vehicle company and it's become 165 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:53,880 Speaker 2: something much more than that. SpaceX was a rocket company, 166 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:58,200 Speaker 2: a rocket launch company, but now it's got AI in there. 167 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:01,480 Speaker 2: It's what was formerly on his Twitter in there, and 168 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 2: a lot of people are expecting it's going to also 169 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 2: have Tesla in there as well. They're going to combine 170 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 2: it two. 171 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 6: Yes, exactly. It feels like both Musk's key companies, which 172 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:13,199 Speaker 6: are Tesla and SpaceX, had their own goals at one 173 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 6: point and then in the past six years, he's turned 174 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 6: both of them into AI and now with a purchase 175 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:22,840 Speaker 6: of like XAI and x into SpaceX, that's become a 176 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 6: lot more clear. Like Tesla's like no focusing on human 177 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 6: aid robots and SpaceX want to do the satellite on space. 178 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:33,120 Speaker 6: And it's kind of like all in search of like AGI, 179 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:36,080 Speaker 6: like artificial general intelligence and like who's going to get 180 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 6: there first and how they're going to do it. And 181 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 6: Alon clearly doesn't want to lose, and he's really concerned 182 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:44,520 Speaker 6: with like having the right infrastructure in place. He doesn't 183 00:09:44,559 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 6: He thinks I compute and power are going to be 184 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:49,400 Speaker 6: like bottlenecks for the industry, so he's trying to make 185 00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:51,960 Speaker 6: sure that he doesn't have those bottlenecks. 186 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:55,600 Speaker 4: When I first started on Wall Street nearly forty years 187 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 4: ago today, somebody taught me go to the when he 188 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 4: goes yeah, IPO perspectives and pick one up. Go to 189 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 4: the related party transactions. That's the first place you go, 190 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 4: and boy, there are a lot of related party transactions here. 191 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:10,440 Speaker 4: Is are we getting any reporting back that from this 192 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:13,920 Speaker 4: road show that there's pushback from investors or investors willing 193 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 4: to give Elon benefit the down. 194 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 6: It depends on who you ask. There's like some investors 195 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 6: that really believe in Elon. You have to like bet 196 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:22,320 Speaker 6: on him. 197 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:22,680 Speaker 4: Yep. 198 00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 6: I think that if if it's more integrated, just because 199 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 6: it's like it's going to become a conglomerate and it 200 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 6: makes sense for innovation. There's others that don't really like it. 201 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 6: They think like there's not enough corporate governance and it's 202 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 6: going to be less especially if spaces and stuff buying Tesla, 203 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 6: And sometimes it's hard to figure out what's the valuation if, 204 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:44,480 Speaker 6: like Elon has had both sides of every transaction. So 205 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 6: there's definitely concerns around. 206 00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 2: What's the value here, not just that I feel like 207 00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:54,080 Speaker 2: a while ago, there was a lot of premium put 208 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:56,160 Speaker 2: into the idea that you could have a big conglomerate 209 00:10:56,200 --> 00:11:00,280 Speaker 2: with businesses that are kind of loosely integrated but you know, 210 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 2: just tangentially. And now companies, especially those industrials, want to 211 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 2: be very very narrowly focused on the other side of 212 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 2: the equation. You're looking at some of these big tech 213 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 2: companies like a SpaceX, like Tesla get bigger and bigger 214 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:18,400 Speaker 2: and you know, kind of mimic what those industrials were doing. 215 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 2: Is SpaceX kind of like the new Ge. 216 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 6: That's what some investors are starting to think about, like 217 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:26,800 Speaker 6: does it become too unwildy and it ends up like 218 00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:31,559 Speaker 6: Ge Or does he manage to actually have advertically integrated 219 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:34,800 Speaker 6: Other tech companies have gotten bigger, but sometimes they spin 220 00:11:34,840 --> 00:11:38,079 Speaker 6: off their ventures. It doesn't seem like that's what he 221 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:40,480 Speaker 6: long wants to do. It's kind to the opposite. So 222 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 6: that's definitely a question on everyone's mind. All right. 223 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 4: What I like about your story, in addition to the 224 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 4: deep reporting, is you have this nice graphic that tries 225 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:52,719 Speaker 4: to explain must universe and how it's become more intertwined. 226 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:55,800 Speaker 4: It's a graphic here and it tries to show you 227 00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:59,440 Speaker 4: how things are interrelated. It's not helping me here, dude. Yeah, 228 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,760 Speaker 4: I mean, is there is so much stuff out there 229 00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 4: that he owns kind of owns influences. This is a 230 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:08,000 Speaker 4: lot for investors, isn't it. 231 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:11,720 Speaker 6: Yeah? I mean the graphic is a lot, but it 232 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:15,240 Speaker 6: kind of shows how Tessa first bought Solar City, and 233 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:17,880 Speaker 6: like all his more successful ventures, tend to buy his 234 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 6: more flailing ones. So Solar City was struggling and then 235 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 6: Tessa bought it a decade ago. Twitter was struggling under 236 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 6: the dead load, Xai bought it. Then Xtai was spurning 237 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 6: a lot, SpaceX spotted. So it just feels like every 238 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 6: single struggling company and suff swallowed is the expection. 239 00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 4: Is the expectation that SpaceX will buy Tesla. 240 00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:45,480 Speaker 6: That's part of the market shatter. Now I don't know. 241 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:48,280 Speaker 2: I mean, you'd make this graphic a lot more simple. 242 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:51,240 Speaker 2: Swallowed by SpaceX. 243 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:52,640 Speaker 4: All Right, so folks, you have to go out on 244 00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:54,520 Speaker 4: the Bloomberg termor will go into Bloomberg dot com and 245 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:56,480 Speaker 4: check out this story. It's really really good if you're 246 00:12:56,480 --> 00:12:58,800 Speaker 4: trying to get a handle on one aspect of this deal, 247 00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:01,400 Speaker 4: which is the inter party and the related transactions, this. 248 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 2: Story really stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming 249 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:07,360 Speaker 2: up after this. 250 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:14,840 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 251 00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:17,960 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android 252 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 253 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:24,400 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 254 00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 4: Fuck a little healthcare here, we do that with Sam Fazzelli, 255 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:30,200 Speaker 4: Director of Research for Global Industries and a senior pharmaceuticals 256 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 4: analysts Bloomberg intelligence. He's based in London. I have no 257 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:36,400 Speaker 4: idea where he is, but he's based in London. Sam 258 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:43,959 Speaker 4: talk to us about Eli Lilly and their obesity products offerings. 259 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:45,920 Speaker 4: Where do they stand in this market? Where are they 260 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:47,120 Speaker 4: going to go going forward? 261 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 5: Yeah, so Paul, they continue to lead in terms of efficacy, 262 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:56,679 Speaker 5: So zip bound has the better efficacy proven in a 263 00:13:56,760 --> 00:14:02,080 Speaker 5: head to head trial versus. And they now have this 264 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 5: drug or the retro truetide or retatrotide as I like 265 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 5: to call it, which is a triple mechanisms of action, 266 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:14,880 Speaker 5: and that is got to blowout efficacy. Particularly obviously they 267 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 5: tried it in people with a very high level of 268 00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 5: obesity where you can lose thirty percent of your body 269 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 5: weight and not be seriously suffering. So again they have 270 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:31,600 Speaker 5: this mechanism of action that this triple product that seems 271 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:33,320 Speaker 5: to be doing very well. A whole bunch of other 272 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 5: companies have reported and they still lead in the oral space. 273 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 5: Astro Senecus have some good data and that looks good, 274 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 5: that looks competitive, and they're moving to phase three. They 275 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 5: have other plans for that space. So Lily still really 276 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:52,479 Speaker 5: is in the lead here in terms of efficacy, particularly 277 00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 5: how much. 278 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:57,560 Speaker 2: Do consumers patients care about efficacy. I mean, all of 279 00:14:57,560 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 2: these drug makers have treatments that are effective, but are 280 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 2: they making the distinction between twenty seven percent versus thirty percent? 281 00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 5: Very good question, Scarlett. The interesting thing here is that 282 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 5: you are coming and I'm sure you have across more 283 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:19,760 Speaker 5: and more people who talk about microdosing, right, So they 284 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 5: lose the desired amount of weight that they want and 285 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:25,080 Speaker 5: then they just want to keep it at base, so 286 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:27,400 Speaker 5: they go into a lower dose that I don't even 287 00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 5: know how they calculate that, their physician maybe helps them 288 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 5: calculate it. It gets rid of some other side effect profiles. 289 00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:37,080 Speaker 5: So really these big numbers and you know, and I've 290 00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 5: said this before, and although the answer Toude question was 291 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 5: literally leads bone efficacy, but when you think about it, 292 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 5: does it matter for me If I'm I don't know, 293 00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:51,320 Speaker 5: ninety five kilos and I lose ten kilos over the 294 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 5: space of six months, whether that was twelve or eight, 295 00:15:56,920 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 5: I'm still losing quite a lot of weight and getting 296 00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 5: into shape and then allowing me to do everything else 297 00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 5: that I need to do. So I agree with you, 298 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 5: it's not as important. And the market's telling us that 299 00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:09,880 Speaker 5: except that bound is the best drug out there. 300 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:13,120 Speaker 4: So Sam was quoting weight in kilo's, like, we know 301 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 4: what a kilo is, but at least it didn't go 302 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 4: stone on us. 303 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 5: Lost by two point two two point two to get 304 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 5: two pounds. 305 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:23,440 Speaker 4: Where Sam, Eli Lilly in twenty twenty two had twenty 306 00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:25,720 Speaker 4: eight billion dollars of revenue. You guys out there on 307 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:29,360 Speaker 4: Wall Street are projecting eighty five billion this year. Where 308 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 4: did that sixty billion of revenue come from? 309 00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 5: It's majority of it is obesity. So you know, I mean, 310 00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 5: this has been a great company for a long time, 311 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 5: as because how do we measure farmer companies their growth profile, 312 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:48,760 Speaker 5: their earnings profile, their margin evolution, but also their pipeline. Right, 313 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:51,600 Speaker 5: and so they've hit the jackpot today. And I'll tell 314 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 5: you what, Paul, They're out there deal after deal. We 315 00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 5: talked about it last week. I think the amazonification of 316 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 5: being a farmer company. Do everything right. They go after 317 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:05,720 Speaker 5: infectious diseases, everything they can get their hands on, and 318 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:09,880 Speaker 5: just just you know, feather that nest. So are they 319 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 5: and we've had another deal in the sector, right, Yes. 320 00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:15,160 Speaker 2: I wonder to what extent Eli Lilly going out there 321 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 2: and being and doing the sort of position of strength 322 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:20,879 Speaker 2: means that they're setting new benchmarks and overpaying and forcing 323 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:24,359 Speaker 2: everyone else to overpay. Maybe they're not overpaying, but I 324 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:25,240 Speaker 2: defer to you on that. 325 00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:29,199 Speaker 5: But they certainly have bigger firepower, right, I mean, my 326 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,200 Speaker 5: checkbook's bigger than your checkbook. Is the kind of situation 327 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:34,800 Speaker 5: I think they're in. But I think they're very disciplined. 328 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:36,960 Speaker 5: I think you sometimes look at things you go, wow, 329 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:40,200 Speaker 5: that's a big number for a deal of this size, 330 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:41,960 Speaker 5: of this stage of development. But then what do you 331 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:44,399 Speaker 5: find after six months and nine months, twelve months. Of 332 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:47,080 Speaker 5: course dructs fail, there's issues that happened. But we just 333 00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:49,560 Speaker 5: had been looking at one called Colonia that they've done, 334 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,720 Speaker 5: and the dation is looking really good. It's a totally 335 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:57,399 Speaker 5: novel way of treating cancers using what we call in 336 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:00,479 Speaker 5: vivo carti. That's not going to the detail, but totally 337 00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 5: novel way. And at the time they did the sketching, 338 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:05,639 Speaker 5: hay a little bit, they must know something. And of 339 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,200 Speaker 5: course as the datas come out, yes they did know something. 340 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 5: Some of that data is looking better, So you know, 341 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 5: I think farmer companies have to think strategically too. It's 342 00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:17,320 Speaker 5: not just about a multiple today or an MPV analysis. 343 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 5: Does this really give me a great portfolio to go 344 00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:25,200 Speaker 5: and make a difference in this disease and be heard 345 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:27,680 Speaker 5: by physicians real quick? 346 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:32,800 Speaker 4: Sam gske GSK, a big farmer company, bought Neuvalent for 347 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 4: ten point six billion. What is Neuvalent? 348 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:39,960 Speaker 5: So Newvalent is a biotech company that did what a 349 00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:43,400 Speaker 5: lot of these new biotech companies are doing, finding ways 350 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:48,200 Speaker 5: of making fourth generation, third generation drugs with the science 351 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:50,720 Speaker 5: and technology that's been evolving over the past five to 352 00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:54,400 Speaker 5: ten years, fifteen years. And that's exactly where this deal 353 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 5: comes into. You look at the headline number, you can 354 00:18:57,560 --> 00:18:59,920 Speaker 5: go that's really really you know, it's a full price 355 00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:03,040 Speaker 5: if you don't want to say overpaid. But then of 356 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 5: course for GSK, it's a strategic decision, right they need 357 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:10,639 Speaker 5: to have getting into lung cancer. Here's two drugs to 358 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 5: put into your lung cancer bag. 359 00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:17,520 Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 360 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:25,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 361 00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:28,879 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 362 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you 363 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:35,080 Speaker 1: get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. 364 00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 4: You know, we're looking at Paramounts Guidance one hundred and 365 00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 4: ten billion dollar takeover Warner Brothers Discovery. This is right 366 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:44,160 Speaker 4: in my backyard. I spend decades putting these companies together, 367 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:47,560 Speaker 4: and now you get Paramounts Guidance looking to buy Warner 368 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:51,520 Speaker 4: Brothers Discovery. But apparently the UK's got a problem with it. Apparently. 369 00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:53,800 Speaker 6: I think a lot of people have a problem with that. 370 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:57,800 Speaker 4: I think so apparently, you know, so, I think it's 371 00:19:57,880 --> 00:20:01,359 Speaker 4: just something that's not necessarily going to be passed without 372 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,119 Speaker 4: some big time review, and we want to review the 373 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:08,640 Speaker 4: anti trust. We go to Jennifer Ree, senior litigation analyst 374 00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:12,639 Speaker 4: at Bloomberg Intelligence. Jen thanks so much for joining us 375 00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:14,720 Speaker 4: here talk to us about what's going on with this 376 00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:16,719 Speaker 4: deal and the United Kingdom. 377 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:21,000 Speaker 7: We're happy to me, Paul and John. I mean, you 378 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:23,959 Speaker 7: know what's happening here is that, like most big global deals, 379 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:28,399 Speaker 7: this deal triggered these notification requirements across the world, not 380 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:31,720 Speaker 7: just in the US and EU and UK, but elsewhere also, 381 00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 7: and they have to get clearance from these entities before 382 00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:37,359 Speaker 7: they can go ahead and close their deal legally. So 383 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 7: you know you've heard as you mentioned there's been a 384 00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:43,200 Speaker 7: lot of opposition. There's been political opposition, there's been opposition 385 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,080 Speaker 7: from labor groups coming for this deal, and so these 386 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:49,439 Speaker 7: agencies really have to investigate. You know, this is just 387 00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 7: the position they're in, and you have a lot of 388 00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 7: different markets that they're going to be looking at. So 389 00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:57,120 Speaker 7: the UK's opened an investigation. They've set an end date 390 00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:00,800 Speaker 7: for that phase one investigation of August seventh, and at 391 00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:02,920 Speaker 7: that point they're going to have to decide what they 392 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,320 Speaker 7: want to do. Do they have some concerns about the 393 00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:09,080 Speaker 7: impact on different markets from this combination. Are there remedies 394 00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,240 Speaker 7: that have been offered that could resolve those concerns that 395 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:13,439 Speaker 7: they can get it closed up more quickly, or do 396 00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:15,960 Speaker 7: they need to continue to investigate, which would be opening 397 00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 7: a phase two, which I think would be you know, 398 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,879 Speaker 7: a difficult thing for these companies that intend to close 399 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,359 Speaker 7: in the third quarter and also have a ticking pee 400 00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:25,320 Speaker 7: that's going to start to kick in for paramount as 401 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:27,520 Speaker 7: of September thirty, so they're going to want to get 402 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:28,680 Speaker 7: this cleared up before then. 403 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:30,879 Speaker 2: Is there one concern that Trump's everything else? 404 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 4: I mean, are my streaming prices going on? 405 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:37,200 Speaker 7: You know, it's funny. I think what everybody thinks about 406 00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:40,600 Speaker 7: is streaming, because that's what we all understand, and we're consumers, 407 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 7: all of us for these streaming services. But I just 408 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:46,919 Speaker 7: don't see that streaming overlap being problematic anywhere in the world. 409 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,919 Speaker 7: You know, Paramount plus and HBO are the two entities 410 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:53,000 Speaker 7: that would come together, and they are still relatively small 411 00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:56,240 Speaker 7: in the world of streaming compared to Netflix and Disney 412 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 7: Plus and all the others. And I don't think anywhere 413 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:02,720 Speaker 7: and buying market share gets anywhere near thirty percent, and 414 00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:06,000 Speaker 7: that's kind of a flashpoint for antitrust. Under thirty percent, 415 00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 7: you probably don't have concerns. Over thirty percent, you probably do. 416 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:13,919 Speaker 7: So I think any agency regulator that's looking at this 417 00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,440 Speaker 7: can probably get past that streaming concern. 418 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,639 Speaker 4: Jen just summarize for us, what's the status of the 419 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 4: regulatory review in the US here the federal versus state. 420 00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:27,360 Speaker 7: You know, it's really complicated. In the United States, there's 421 00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:30,960 Speaker 7: a mandatory antitrust waiting period that allows the Department of 422 00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:34,000 Speaker 7: Justice in this case, to investigate the deal. If that 423 00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:38,160 Speaker 7: period expires, if the Department of Justice allows it to expire, legally, 424 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 7: the companies are free to close. That happened. But even 425 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:44,240 Speaker 7: though the Department of Justice allowed that period to expire, 426 00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:47,560 Speaker 7: there have been news reports that it is continuing to 427 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:50,360 Speaker 7: investigate the deal, which is a little bit odd. It's 428 00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:54,239 Speaker 7: just an unusual sort of set of circumstances. Even if 429 00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:57,200 Speaker 7: that period has expired, the Department of Justice could still 430 00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 7: do something. They could still sue, which I highly doubt 431 00:22:59,880 --> 00:23:02,640 Speaker 7: that will, or they could still seek remedies and enter 432 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:05,520 Speaker 7: a consent order. There's nothing that stops them. But if 433 00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:08,800 Speaker 7: they don't do something and all these other clearances come through, 434 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:11,359 Speaker 7: the companies legally can go ahead and close their deal. 435 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:15,040 Speaker 7: Now we've heard that the states, led by California, a 436 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,679 Speaker 7: group of states I should say, are thinking about suing 437 00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 7: to block the deal as well. If they do that, 438 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:22,439 Speaker 7: what they're going to need to do is get a 439 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 7: preliminary injunction because the time it will take them for 440 00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:28,800 Speaker 7: a judge to get to a decision on permanently blocking 441 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:32,160 Speaker 7: the deal is probably nine months, eight months, nine months 442 00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,760 Speaker 7: maybe even more from the time they file, and by 443 00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,439 Speaker 7: then I think the other clearances will probably be in 444 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:40,040 Speaker 7: and the companies could close, and it is much harder 445 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,440 Speaker 7: to get a decision unwinding a deal, So the first 446 00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:44,679 Speaker 7: thing they would do is seek a preliminary injunction, and 447 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:47,960 Speaker 7: that process can be much more much up quicker than permanent. 448 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:50,359 Speaker 7: It can get resolved within about four or five months. 449 00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:55,600 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 450 00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 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