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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Prisner.

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Speaker 2: You can join Brian Curtis and myself for the stories,

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Speaker 2: making news and moving markets in the APAC region. You

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Speaker 2: can subscribe to the show anywhere you get your podcast

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Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 3: Joining us now is Todd Walsh, chief executive officer of

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Speaker 3: Alpha Cubed Investments. Todd, the US data here is painting

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Speaker 3: a picture of a pretty resilient economy. If you look

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Speaker 3: at the jobless claims today, durable goods GDP up at

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Speaker 3: three percent. Is it starting to feel like the FED

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Speaker 3: went too soon not too late?

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Speaker 1: Well, Brian and Doug, thanks for having me on.

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Speaker 4: I appreciate it.

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Speaker 1: I've been looking and our firm has been looking at

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Speaker 1: the data from the vantage point of accommodation, of marginal

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Speaker 1: and mixed. So we've been marginal acceleration in a lot

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Speaker 1: of the data, but mixed data with positive economic data

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Speaker 1: like we saw today, And if we can continue on

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Speaker 1: that path, the FED might actually thread the needle and

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Speaker 1: give us that fabled soft landing that we would all

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Speaker 1: love to see, but I think it's a great time

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Speaker 1: for all of us to collectively hold our breath. We've

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Speaker 1: got a PC number coming out tomorrow, and it would

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Speaker 1: not be fun to see that be an ugly number

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Speaker 1: in the face of that front loaded fifty basis point cut,

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Speaker 1: would it not?

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Speaker 2: At all? But let's assume that it's a soft reading

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Speaker 2: that inflation has not accelerated to a meaningful degree. Maybe

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Speaker 2: it's stubborn somewhere around two and a half percent in

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Speaker 2: that vicinity. The way that you're thinking about markets right now,

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Speaker 2: I'm curious as to how it's informing expectations for further

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Speaker 2: rate cuts. Are we only going to get another fifty

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Speaker 2: basis points, so let's say between now and the end

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Speaker 2: of the year.

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Speaker 1: So the FMC member poll looks at came out at

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Speaker 1: about two more cuts fifty basis points by the end

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Speaker 1: of the year, and the FED fund's futures are looking

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Speaker 1: for about three. This is all data dependent, and we

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Speaker 1: are optimistic and hopeful that the data will continue to

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Speaker 1: come in marginal and mixed, and that the Fed's on

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Speaker 1: the right path, inflation will come under control, and they

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Speaker 1: can continue their rate cutting activities. Remember last November the

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Speaker 1: Fed paused and stop rate raising rates. Now they've moved

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Speaker 1: to an easing cycle. And if they can continue that,

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Speaker 1: the value index, the dividend value index of the S

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Speaker 1: and P five hundred, which has kept pace with the

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Speaker 1: white hot Nasdaq one hundred since November of last year,

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Speaker 1: believe it or not, should continue to have the wind

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Speaker 1: at it's back. So we like a combination of boldar tech,

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Speaker 1: use volatility to pick up the names that we want

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Speaker 1: to pick up, and then add that dividend value trade

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Speaker 1: as long as the Fed can maintain this easing activity.

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Speaker 3: Now, we've had a lot of false dawns on China,

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Speaker 3: and I bring up China because I think it is

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Speaker 3: having a fairly big effect on the global equity rallies

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Speaker 3: that we've seen, in addition of course to the FED.

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Speaker 3: But what we've seen in the past with the false

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Speaker 3: dawns attached to the supply of stimulus was it never

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Speaker 3: really felt like President she was behind it, like the

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Speaker 3: top the top leader and faction was behind it. But

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Speaker 3: it seems different now. And let's examine this because we

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Speaker 3: had the Poll Up Bureau meeting where they don't normally

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Speaker 3: talk about the economy, and they did, and officials have

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Speaker 3: gone from wanting the property sector to weaken to ease

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Speaker 3: so that it would become more affordable to people, to

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Speaker 3: now actually stop going down. So I put it to

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Speaker 3: you that maybe David Temper, he's one that came out

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Speaker 3: and said it's to buy everything rally in China now.

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Speaker 3: Maybe now, since they want to stop the property market

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Speaker 3: from going down any further, maybe now is the best

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Speaker 3: time to buy.

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Speaker 1: I think your point is extremely well taken, and you

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Speaker 1: have to get some historical perspective here. We've had a

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Speaker 1: couple of stimulus false starts where the market tried to

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Speaker 1: get traction didn't come through. Maybe we didn't the complete

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Speaker 1: support of the entire political structure in China. There are

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Speaker 1: a lot of beaten down money managers out there who

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Speaker 1: have been trained when you see stimulus go in, it's

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Speaker 1: time to get in the market. They went in, they

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Speaker 1: got punched in the face, and they've been washed out.

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Speaker 1: And we might be at a real tradable bottom here

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Speaker 1: that has legs, and it would be nice to support

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Speaker 1: continuing bull market in the US to see some get

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Speaker 1: some help out of the Chinese market, which has been

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Speaker 1: a terrible drag for a while, so I think you're

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Speaker 1: on point there.

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Speaker 2: So do you buy the entire broader market or do

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Speaker 2: you really kind of exercise a little bit of judgment here?

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Speaker 2: Are you selective with certain themes in mind?

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Speaker 1: I think when you're looking at a market like China,

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Speaker 1: unless you're an expert in the market and really understand

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Speaker 1: the dynamics of that market, and there are a lot

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Speaker 1: of people out there that do, but there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of people, especially in the US, that really don't. Think

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Speaker 1: you're much better off buying a basket of securities and

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Speaker 1: taking some of that security specific risk out of the equation.

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Speaker 3: And do you look to spread it around Asia as well,

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Speaker 3: if you're looking to diversify not just China, but some

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Speaker 3: of the countries that would benefit from the stronger China.

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Speaker 1: I think right now it's a China story. Let's wait

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Speaker 1: and see just a little bit if this actually has legs.

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Speaker 1: We don't want to get too deeply committed to this

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Speaker 1: trade and find out that it's possibly another false start.

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Speaker 1: But this really has the look of leaving a lot

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Speaker 1: of people in the dust. It's moving fast, it's moving broadly,

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Speaker 1: and I, like I said, a lot of money managers

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Speaker 1: have gotten caught short not being in the trade. So

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Speaker 1: let's give us a couple of weeks before we start

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Speaker 1: broadening out our exposure and seeing if this is real.

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Speaker 2: So a little bit of it, maybe a short squeeze

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Speaker 2: as well. Can we turn to the US election. We

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Speaker 2: were just talking a moment ago about the latest Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: News Morning Console poll Kamala Harris holding a razor thin

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Speaker 2: lead across the swing states and what is being described

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Speaker 2: as a very very tight race. How are you viewing

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Speaker 2: the election as as a function of the market's behavior, Well, if.

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Speaker 1: It's okay with you, I'm going to absolutely wait to

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Speaker 1: make my decisions about the election until after it's over.

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Speaker 1: But that being said, there is a lot on the

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Speaker 1: table here. There are a lot of parts of the

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Speaker 1: platform that are going to go one way or the

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Speaker 1: other depending on who gets elected. And I'll start with energy. Right,

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Speaker 1: if we get a Harris victory, the renewable trade is

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Speaker 1: probably going to come back to life. And of course

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Speaker 1: the other candidate Trump, I think he has drill Baby

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Speaker 1: Drill tattooed on his back as a whole separate trade.

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Speaker 1: So we're gonna have some winners and losers after this election,

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Speaker 1: and you're going to see the minute it gets decided,

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Speaker 1: a lot of activity across those sectors that are favored

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Speaker 1: or not favored depending on who wins. And we could

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Speaker 1: go through the list, but we'll start putting that together

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Speaker 1: as we get closer. I'm sure as we get into

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Speaker 1: that election a week or two, we're going to really

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Speaker 1: be tearing apart the winners and losers discussions.

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Speaker 3: I always wonder whether drill baby drill as much. I

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Speaker 3: hate that expression.

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Speaker 1: He's actually a terrible expression.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, I don't even know how it caught, caught

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Speaker 3: fire and caught hold, But I'm not sure it means

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Speaker 3: anything good for energy, because if you produce a lot

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Speaker 3: more oil, of course the price would be down, the

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Speaker 3: company's profits would probably be down. I appreciate that people

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Speaker 3: are looking for less regulation. That's a slightly different part

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Speaker 3: of the story.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you're one hundred percent on point there. We can't

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Speaker 1: just automatically assume that the energy and non renewables are

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Speaker 1: going to go straight up, because we're actually dealing with

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Speaker 1: a lot of issues around oil right now, aren't we.

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Speaker 1: Is it signaling that maybe we're squeaking into this recession

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Speaker 1: that we've been hearing about going on two years now,

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Speaker 1: we've been really talking about, you know, Whens, there going

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Speaker 1: to be a recession and oil's kind of flashing up. Hey,

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Speaker 1: maybe we're leaning a little bit more in that way

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Speaker 1: with West Texas under seventy bucks. So we'll just have

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Speaker 1: to see how that pans out. But there's also a

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Speaker 1: glut on that front as well, and if we get

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Speaker 1: a lot of deregulation in the energy sector, that's not

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Speaker 1: going to help the price of oil and probably not

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Speaker 1: going to help those related stocks. But there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of winners and losers that we can parse through as

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Speaker 1: we get into the election actual result.

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Speaker 3: All right, David, thank Art, Thanks very much. I appreciate

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Speaker 3: the marginal and mixed references. I'll have to get my

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Speaker 3: head around that during the commercial break, but it was

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Speaker 3: good having you on the program. Todd Walsh, chief executive

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Speaker 3: officer of Alpha Q Investments. It's a big day in Japan.

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Speaker 3: The ruling party there, the LDP, will select a new

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Speaker 3: leader and that leader will go on to become Prime minister.

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Speaker 3: And so joining us now on the program is Tina Barrett,

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Speaker 3: who is professor of political science at SOFIA University. So

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Speaker 3: we have some interesting milestones that could be set here, Professor.

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Speaker 3: We might have the first woman to be a leader

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Speaker 3: of Japan in the modern era. We might have the

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Speaker 3: youngest prime minister since well over the last forty or

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Speaker 3: fifty years or so. And there are a lot of

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Speaker 3: interesting issues. I mean, Japan is kind of a an

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Speaker 3: inflection point here, moving away from deflation to trying to

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Speaker 3: inflate your thoughts.

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Speaker 5: So I think cosmetically it seems like Japan is being

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Speaker 5: presented with quite a diverse range of candidates. As you say,

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Speaker 5: the first potentially woman prime minister who styles herself on

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Speaker 5: Britain's Margaret Thatcher. The candidate Koizumi, whose father himself was

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Speaker 5: prime minister, represents a generational change at only forty three

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Speaker 5: years of age. But as I say, he has his

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Speaker 5: pedigree that's background in politics. But actually, if we sort

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Speaker 5: of drill into the choices that Japanese voters are being

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Speaker 5: presented with, there are some differences between the candidates. Koizumi

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Speaker 5: could probably be seen as more progressive, somebody who's sort

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Speaker 5: of focusing on issues that perhaps speak to his own generation.

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Speaker 5: Candidate Ishiba, who is actually the sort of lead candidate

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Speaker 5: among the rank and file members of the Liberal Democratic

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Speaker 5: Party in the country. He tends to focus more on

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Speaker 5: Japan's regions, trying to revitalize the country through more investment

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Speaker 5: in places far away from Tokyo, whereas taka Ichi, the

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Speaker 5: candidate who is the potential first woman prime minister, is

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Speaker 5: more on the conservative wing of the party. So subtle differences,

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Speaker 5: but all of them from the same political part of

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Speaker 5: the party, all of them very establishment and not representing

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Speaker 5: huge changes from the status quo.

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Speaker 2: So if you had to rate, let's say the economy

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Speaker 2: as the key issue, or maybe it's regional security, is

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Speaker 2: one more predominant than the other in this election, do

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Speaker 2: you think?

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Speaker 5: I think for voters it's definitely the economy. I mean,

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Speaker 5: lots of Japanese citizens are very concerned about rising prices,

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Speaker 5: especially for energy and for food, which is really eating

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Speaker 5: into people's monthly salaries, and salaries have been improving into

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Speaker 5: because of the inflationary pressures, but not keeping pace with inflation.

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Speaker 5: So I think for voters the election should be focused

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Speaker 5: on the economy. However, the candidates have been relatively vague

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Speaker 5: in what they've said would be their economic focus. Koizumi

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Speaker 5: and Ishuba I think will probably continue with policies very

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Speaker 5: similar to current Prime Minister Kishida. Koizumi in particular, has

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Speaker 5: said that he really values the independence of the Bank

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Speaker 5: of Japan. Taka Ishi, however, she tends to lean more

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Speaker 5: towards what we might consider to be Abinomics. She's somebody

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Speaker 5: who believes that there continues to need to be more

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Speaker 5: inflationary pressures in Japan to boost growth. So I think

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Speaker 5: if she were to become Prime Minister, we might see

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Speaker 5: more clashes with the Bank of Japan, but we haven't

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Speaker 5: seen a lot of detail, as I said, from any candidate.

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Speaker 3: And in the same way, perhaps you could run through

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Speaker 3: for the three main candidates whether or not they are

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Speaker 3: very different in terms of their approach to the relationship

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Speaker 3: with first the United States and secondly Europe.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so I mean Europe. Unfortunately, from my perspective as

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Speaker 5: someone from Europe, has not been really a very big

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Speaker 5: focus of the election. I think the US, especially with

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Speaker 5: the presidential election looming, is far more important. I think

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Speaker 5: take Itchi probably poses the most problems potentially for the US.

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Speaker 5: She is somebody who leans towards the conservative wing of

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Speaker 5: the LDP. She continues to visit the controversial Yasukuni Shrine,

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Speaker 5: where there are the souls of fourteen Class A War

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Speaker 5: criminals enshrined, which makes visiting that establishment very controversial with

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Speaker 5: Japan's Korean and Chinese neighbors. So as the US is

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Speaker 5: trying to forge more regional cooperation between its allies in

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Speaker 5: the Asia Pacific, I think her premiership would potentially be

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Speaker 5: quite divisive and therefore would undermine that ambition. I think

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Speaker 5: Koizumi probably means towards being the candidate that would most

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Speaker 5: closely align with the current administration in the United States.

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Speaker 5: He's been pallling around with the ambassador to Japan, going

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Speaker 5: surfing together. He's somebody who speaks good English, has visited

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Speaker 5: I think he was taken to the White House with

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Speaker 5: Primeister Kishido when he went on a visit, so he

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Speaker 5: is quite a well known figure issue. But I think

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Speaker 5: somebody very focused on regional security. Has talked about wanting

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Speaker 5: to see an Asian version of NATO, so I think

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Speaker 5: that might fit to some degree with the US's ambitions.

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Speaker 5: But he's also somebody more concerned about the regional issues

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Speaker 5: and would like to see, for example, Okinawa's population having

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Speaker 5: more control over what happens with US BASS, so that

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Speaker 5: could potentially be an area of friction.

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Speaker 2: So speaking of regional issues, how does China enter into

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Speaker 2: this conversation?

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Speaker 5: So, I think China has not been really overtly discussed

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Speaker 5: as part of the election campaign, but certainly in the

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Speaker 5: background when security issues are raised. It's very much about

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Speaker 5: the growing security threat posed by China, but also North Korea,

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Speaker 5: I think as well. So all three candidates have talked

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Speaker 5: about wanting to perhaps revise the constitution of Japan to

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Speaker 5: give more clear status to what are currently Japan's self

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Speaker 5: defense forces, perhaps allowing them to have a broader mission

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Speaker 5: in terms of collective security. So those kinds of debates

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Speaker 5: I think are very much focused on you thinking about

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Speaker 5: the threat of China in the region, especially around the

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Speaker 5: territorial disputes that Japan has with Beijing.

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Speaker 3: Professor, how much support among these three candidates and who

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Speaker 3: I suppose has the best grassroots support.

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Speaker 5: Well, that's a very difficult question to answer. I mean,

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Speaker 5: I don't see a lot of election fever in Tokyo

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Speaker 5: this morning. ISSUEBA has the most support among the grassroots

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Speaker 5: of the LDP, so he's somebody who's known his anti

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Speaker 5: corruption stance. He's a very independent figure. He's been quite outspoken,

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Speaker 5: calling out his own parties corruption and scandals, so I

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Speaker 5: think that gives him an air of honesty that a

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Speaker 5: lot of LDP members value. I think in the country also,

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Speaker 5: there's a grudging respect for him, but he's not a

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Speaker 5: particularly warm figure. He was described by another member of

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Speaker 5: Parliament Parliament to me as being rather monk like. He

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Speaker 5: likes to give sermons to his colleagues, and he is

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Speaker 5: quite appreciative of his own intellect, so that makes him

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Speaker 5: a somewhat prickly figure, but respected. I think taka Itchi

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Speaker 5: has quite a strong following among conservative voters and members

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Speaker 5: of the LDP, but I think she's very out of

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Speaker 5: step with the average Japanese person these days. I think

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Speaker 5: she's very much opposed to issues like women being able

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Speaker 5: to have separate surnames from their husbands, which makes Japanese

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Speaker 5: support Kwazumi. I think is seen as being quite charismatic,

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Speaker 5: but perhaps a little too inexperienced to make a solid

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Speaker 5: prime minister.

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Speaker 3: Professor thank you, Professor Tina Barrett there from Sophia University.

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Speaker 3: Joining us on the program is Rachaana Meta Regional co

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Speaker 3: head fixed income Maybank Asset Management Singapore, so we can

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Speaker 3: talk a little bit about fixed income and whether you

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Speaker 3: like credit or some of the sovereigns here. I wanted

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Speaker 3: to ask you first about what's happening in China. The

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Speaker 3: added support of the polit Bureau, even President she himself,

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Speaker 3: seems to bring in another dimension in China to the

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Speaker 3: stimulus that they've been putting forward. It shows that officials

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Speaker 3: are no longer really saying to people in the populace,

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Speaker 3: we're doing what's best for you to know something more like,

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Speaker 3: we want to help you now, we want to please you,

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Speaker 3: we want to allay some of your anxiety. Does that

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Speaker 3: make a difference to you, Rachana.

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Speaker 6: Yes, absolutely impact. For so long, I was not bullish China,

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Speaker 6: but I think what they've done, especially to low and

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Speaker 6: middle income people to give out handouts, I think it's

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Speaker 6: very very positive capitalization of banks because banks were not

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Speaker 6: lending correct. So that also is a big thing, very

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Speaker 6: very very big positive apart from monetary easing, because monetary

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Speaker 6: easing was not doing much, but actually going and helping

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Speaker 6: the real sector to build up consumption, especially giving out handouts.

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Speaker 6: It's very very positive for us, and I think It

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Speaker 6: is the first time we've seen China taking several measures,

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Speaker 6: and really this has change the perspective even off the

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Speaker 6: market and myself because I was very skeptical, but for me,

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Speaker 6: actually helping low and middle income people building job prospects.

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Speaker 6: And finally the property sector, they've come out and said

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Speaker 6: that they're going to help not actually stop commercial construction,

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Speaker 6: and in terms of alliances they're going to read use

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Speaker 6: helping their property comes in developer. I think this is

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Speaker 6: a holistic approach which they are doing, and I think

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Speaker 6: it's going to be long term positive for Chinese consumption.

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Speaker 6: China is actually moving away from manufacturing to domestic consumption economy,

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Speaker 6: so I think it's a key thing for China definitely.

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Speaker 2: I think that's an important point that you just raised

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Speaker 2: their year of the view that this is sustainable over

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Speaker 2: the long term, that this is not something that's flash

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Speaker 2: in the pan, that's going to be temporary. There's this

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Speaker 2: burst of enthusiasm. Markets respond with a lot of confidence.

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Speaker 2: They're moving to the upside in major ways. But I'm wondering,

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Speaker 2: is there the risk that this is not sustainable, that

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Speaker 2: it that it that it fails to deliver on some

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Speaker 2: kind of longer term sustainable path. You don't seem to

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Speaker 2: be of that opinion.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, definitely. See, we still have geopolitics coming correct. US

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Speaker 6: elections are coming, so there'd be a lot of voltility

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Speaker 6: going forward. But I do believe there is China is

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Speaker 6: in the right partn that continued to do this.

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Speaker 5: From a medium term.

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Speaker 6: Perspective, I think it should be positive for China and both.

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Speaker 6: But yes, you're right, do my personal views because ye're

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Speaker 6: actually now tackling the sector they realized it, especially the

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Speaker 6: youth employment and helping the low and middle income families.

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Speaker 6: You see how Singapore is be successful because they've given

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Speaker 6: a kandom to all the people which are low middle income.

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Speaker 6: So once you start giving I'm actually targeting those sectors

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Speaker 6: medium come it should be continue this policy. So my

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Speaker 6: views is they will continue this policy. Barring geopratical it

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Speaker 6: should be medium term.

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Speaker 3: Bullished with China, Yeah, for me, it's the intent that

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Speaker 3: is the most important. I didn't feel for the past

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Speaker 3: three years that the top leaders in China really had

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Speaker 3: the intent to mollify markets to swing things around, but

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Speaker 3: it seems now that that's being expressed. So I wonder

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Speaker 3: if we can apply that to some of the geopolitical

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Speaker 3: issues that China has obviously kind of in a battle

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Speaker 3: with Europe now and has been with the United States

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Speaker 3: for some time. Do you note any change in attitude

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Speaker 3: on that front, and is that something that would make

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Speaker 3: credit in China look more attractive.

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Speaker 6: I think it's not easy. The in terms of geopeltical

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Speaker 6: it is because of your selections and in terms of charryfishes.

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Speaker 6: We will have that going forward. And I think if

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Speaker 6: you look at actually in terms of the Chinese exposed

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Speaker 6: to year is already slowing down, and I think the

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Speaker 6: Asian exposed within China is increasing, that they fold that way.

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Speaker 6: So I feel that over the next five to ten years,

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Speaker 6: if China moves away from a lot of manufacturing and

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Speaker 6: you know, like focusing on nation growth and also Middle

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Speaker 6: East is becoming part now with China actually know some

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Speaker 6: of the investments are coming that I think it can

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Speaker 6: be sustainable from a medium term perspective. But of course

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Speaker 6: the consumption is the key China, and for me, if

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Speaker 6: they move away at least currently the economy is more

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Speaker 6: dependent exports. As China evolves, it takes time correct for

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Speaker 6: any economy to move away from manufacturing from an export

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Speaker 6: oriented to consumption. But if they continue to do the

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Speaker 6: right thing, I think they positive.

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Speaker 2: Well, you mentioned geopolitical risk terrors obviously on that list,

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Speaker 2: but I'm more curious about your reaction to what you're

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Speaker 2: hearing these days from the FED and the fact that

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Speaker 2: we are now we're seeing the FED embark on a

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Speaker 2: path of policy easing. How does that affect credit where

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Speaker 2: you are bra Chana very quickly?

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Speaker 6: Actually, it is very positive for especially Asian local currency,

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Speaker 6: government bonds and credits, because we're all waiting for to

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Speaker 6: cut threats. Generally, yours interest is too much higher than

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Speaker 6: THESI is interested. A interesting difficure was a key factor

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Speaker 6: for our currencies to beaken over the last couple of years.

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Speaker 6: So finally we have seen a lot of ancient currencies friends,

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Speaker 6: a lot of asient a lot of money is throwing

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Speaker 6: into Asia. So it's a very very positive for especially

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Speaker 6: Asian and emergy market as well. Then starts cutting baits.

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Speaker 6: So I think it's a very key important to think

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Speaker 6: for us to be positive on Asian credits and Asian currency,

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Speaker 6: so especially on the user credit. Of course it depends

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Speaker 6: on newest tragedies, but I think the supply is limited,

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Speaker 6: so overall is positive.

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Speaker 3: Okay, Rashana, thank you for being with us. Rajana Meta,

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Speaker 3: regional co head Fixed Income at Maybank Asset Management. She

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Speaker 3: expects the dollar to weaken over the medium term and

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Speaker 3: likes Southeast Asian currencies for the current strategy.

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Speaker 2: Joining US now. Jody Schneider, Bloomberg Political News director for

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. Jody, It's always a pleasure. I

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Speaker 2: think it's fair to say, and I want to point

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Speaker 2: out that the lead that we are assigning to a

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Speaker 2: Kamala Harris in these individual states still within the statistical

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Speaker 2: margin of error about forty days until the election. Can

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Speaker 2: we expect a lot more volatility? Can these numbers shift?

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Speaker 2: Do you think dramatically as we get closer to the

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Speaker 2: November election.

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Speaker 4: Well, one of the things I think so interesting about

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Speaker 4: the poll is even though she has neutralized his advantage,

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Speaker 4: it's still extraordinarily close and one swing state one uh one, uh,

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Speaker 4: you know, very narrow swing state would only say a

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Speaker 4: handful of Electoral College votes couldn't make the difference.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 4: You know, while she's neutralized advantage, we are still in

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Speaker 4: the margin of error here, So I think a big

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Speaker 4: takeaway from this is that it's really really close. The

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Speaker 4: other one thing is since neutralized his advantage, which is,

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Speaker 4: you know, since the last poll, we are continuing to

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Speaker 4: see that trajectory occur.

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Speaker 3: I found it interesting that it seems like Harris has

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Speaker 3: edged ahead on handling of the economy, and that's something

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Speaker 3: that President Trump prior to this, had had an advantage on.

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Speaker 4: Yes, and you're right, that had been one of her vulnerabilities.

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Speaker 4: That and the border, and she has seemed to really

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Speaker 4: cut down his big lead in that area. One of

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Speaker 4: the ways is sort of this middle class real populism,

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Speaker 4: almost to the middle class theme that she has really

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Speaker 4: embarked upon in recent weeks. Some of this about trying

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Speaker 4: to take on those who are into that are price gouging,

437
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 4: for instance, talking about middle class breaks rather than for

438
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 4: big businesses. So I think that is having an effect. Also,

439
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 4: the federal reserves. Finally, lowering of interest rates does seem

440
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 4: to have some slight effect as well. This poll went

441
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:30,720
Speaker 4: we went into the field on this pool as that

442
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 4: was occurring as the Federal Reserve had taken the faction

443
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:34,240
Speaker 4: last week.

444
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:38,159
Speaker 2: So is Kamala Harris heading to the southern border in

445
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 2: the States tomorrow Friday, US Is that right?

446
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:43,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, She's going to Arizona tomorrow and she's going to

447
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,879
Speaker 4: be a Nevada over the weekend. This seems to be

448
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,680
Speaker 4: a week that she is kind of almost leaning into

449
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 4: her vulnerabilities, if you will. She taught She came out

450
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 4: with an eighty two page economic report yesterday and spoke

451
00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,600
Speaker 4: about the economy at length, something that you know she's

452
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 4: been so for not kind of honing in on enough.

453
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 4: Tomorrow she's going to the border and obviously going to

454
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 4: talk about that. That is someplace where she is still

455
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:13,679
Speaker 4: trailing Donald Trump in our poll. So she's behind fourteenth

456
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 4: points on who do you trust on the border, which

457
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 4: is you know, a big spling there.

458
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 3: Swinging back to a more economic issue since that's the

459
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 3: thrust of our program. It seems that Harris has made

460
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 3: some advances on things like the federal budget and taxes.

461
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:34,200
Speaker 3: Now you would think that that would be a lot

462
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,919
Speaker 3: friendlier for the Republicans and for Donald Trump, but it's

463
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 3: in this latest poll it seems like there is no

464
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 3: particular edge for either one.

465
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, I remember it's a swing state pole, So you're

466
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 4: looking at people who you know, some who maybe haven't

467
00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 4: made up their minds. Others who are being kind of

468
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 4: corded a lot, right, people keep coming to their states.

469
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 4: You know, these are the people that everybody wants to get.

470
00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 4: So they're getting a lot of messages candidates. They're hearing

471
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 4: from the candidates, and clearly Kamala Harris has been you know,

472
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 4: she's been out there a lot on this message of

473
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 4: I feel your pain, We're going to do better, and

474
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 4: here's my focus on the middle class. And that seems

475
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,439
Speaker 4: to be resonating of certainly what we're saying with the

476
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 4: poll numbers, Yeah.

477
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:20,560
Speaker 2: No doubt about that. A month out from the election

478
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 2: and the Morning Console Bloomberg News poll indicating the vice

479
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:27,919
Speaker 2: president is or has eroded to Donald Trump's advantage on

480
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 2: the economy, that being the headline. Thanks to Jody Schneider. Jody,

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Speaker 2: It's always a pleasure. Jody is Bloomberg Political News director

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00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:36,399
Speaker 2: for Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Speaker 3: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you the

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00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 3: stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific.

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00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,880
Speaker 3: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to get more

486
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Speaker 3: episodes of this and other shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to

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Speaker 3: the podcast on Apple Spotify or anywhere else you listen,

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Speaker 3: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Business out h