1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:25,080 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 2: Donald Trump taking to True Social to give us a 7 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 2: read on a phone call he had today with President 8 00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin of Russia. In part, the True Social post reads, 9 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:38,720 Speaker 2: we have agreed to work together very closely, including visiting 10 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 2: each other's nations. We have also agreed to have our 11 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 2: respective team start negotiations immediately, and he said that would 12 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 2: begin by calling President Zelensky of Ukraine. We confirmed that 13 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 2: that call happened as well as the President says that 14 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 2: President Zelensky will be meeting together with Vice President jad 15 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 2: Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday in Munich. 16 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 2: As it looks like these conversations long been promised Joe, 17 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 2: are actually about to get underway. 18 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:07,240 Speaker 3: Yes, indeed, Friday is a date that we're going to 19 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 3: be looking forward to here. I'm also curious to see 20 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,039 Speaker 3: if either of these world leaders visit each other's countries. 21 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 3: The idea of a state visit by Vladimir Putin is 22 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 3: something that would reinvent the optics all over again here, Kayley, 23 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 3: but this is something that is moving pretty quickly. Donald Trump, 24 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:25,319 Speaker 3: we should mention is set to sign a series of 25 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:29,559 Speaker 3: executive actions starting around two thirty, about an hour from 26 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:31,640 Speaker 3: right now, and based on what we've seen the past 27 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 3: couple of weeks, that may become an open press event. 28 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 4: Where we learn more about this. 29 00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 3: But indeed, Caroline Levitt, the Press Secretary, confirming that as 30 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:41,759 Speaker 3: she held forth before reporters, that briefing is underway right now. 31 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, and while that is ongoing, we want to get 32 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 2: some insight into where these negotiations realistically could go. And 33 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 2: turn to Kurt Volker, who of course was former US 34 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 2: Special Representative for Ukraine negotiations from twenty seventeen to twenty nineteen, 35 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:57,880 Speaker 2: also served as US Ambassador to NATO. Ambassador, thank you 36 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 2: for coming back to balance of power as it looks 37 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 2: like these conversations are about to get underway. Is this 38 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 2: really go time? And what are Russia and Ukraine bringing 39 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 2: to the table at this point? 40 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 5: Well, I think it is I think the fact that 41 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 5: President Putin went ahead made that call with President Trump. 42 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 5: Now that is kind of kicking things off. What President 43 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 5: Trump has been doing until now is indicating that he 44 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 5: expects Putin to end the war, so he's holding Putin 45 00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 5: accountable for that, and he's trying to create a pathway 46 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:31,959 Speaker 5: for a solution so that the war ends and doesn't 47 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 5: come back. I think there are three elements that are 48 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:38,679 Speaker 5: consistent with what we're hearing from President Trump. That is 49 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 5: the idea of a ceasefire, so stopping the fighting right now. Second, 50 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:47,000 Speaker 5: deterring any future Russian aggression so that there's a permanent piece. 51 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:50,640 Speaker 5: And third, shifting the burden for securing Ukraine in the 52 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 5: future more to the Europeans, not leaving the US out entirely, 53 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 5: but shifting the burden more towards Europe. And I think 54 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 5: that's what we're going to see and aim to this 55 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 5: team of people to get started on this, and I 56 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:06,240 Speaker 5: think they will get started right away. In fact, Rubio 57 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 5: will be at the Munich Security Conference later this week, 58 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:12,640 Speaker 5: and I think we're having conversations about it right there. 59 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 3: Bessar, it's great to have you back with us on Bloomberg. 60 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 3: We heard from the new Defense secretary earlier today, who 61 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:23,360 Speaker 3: with his comments, might make you wonder about what kind 62 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:27,239 Speaker 3: of leverage Ukraine has at this negotiating table. He called 63 00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:30,960 Speaker 3: it unrealistic to get NATO membership, which was of course 64 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 3: a major goal of Alto Rizzelenski, or returning to pre 65 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 3: twenty fourteen borders. You know a lot about this. How 66 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 3: unrealistic are those goals? 67 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 5: Well, I think we have to really listen carefully to 68 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:46,840 Speaker 5: what he said. It was a prepared statement, And about 69 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 5: NATO membership he said not realistic. Do you get that 70 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 5: in the course of negotiations, which means that Russia is 71 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 5: not going to agree to that. And I don't think 72 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:58,720 Speaker 5: we should even be talking about that with Russia. It's 73 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 5: not proper to have ATO membership the subject of negotiations 74 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 5: with Russia. That's something for Ukraine and NATO allies to 75 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:08,360 Speaker 5: figure out later. So it's not on the table right now, 76 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 5: and it's not something that we should be talking to 77 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 5: Russia about. As for US troops, he said there'd be 78 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 5: no US ground troops, but he did not all out 79 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 5: support for European troops that would be there, so enabling 80 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 5: support over the horizon presence. So I think we have 81 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:29,040 Speaker 5: to wait and see how this really lays out and 82 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:32,719 Speaker 5: what kind of security assurances for Ukraine are actually agreed. 83 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 5: It's a delicate thing to try to get Putin to 84 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:39,599 Speaker 5: stop the war, doing so by showing that there's enough 85 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:42,400 Speaker 5: force on the table that he has to and at 86 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:45,480 Speaker 5: the same time doing it in a way that prevents 87 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:49,200 Speaker 5: us from having to actually go to war. You want 88 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 5: to end it and then you want to deter the 89 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:53,840 Speaker 5: next war. That's the delicate balance. 90 00:04:55,440 --> 00:05:00,120 Speaker 2: Well, certainly delicate seems like the proper description here, Ambassadors. 91 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:04,599 Speaker 2: We consider that Russia is going to want to get 92 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:08,359 Speaker 2: something from these negotiations. Surely, how much is too much 93 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 2: in terms of what the give and take will be here? 94 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:13,720 Speaker 2: That could leave the door open to Vladimir Putin thinking 95 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 2: that he can kind of make these teriatorial claims in 96 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:16,919 Speaker 2: the future. 97 00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:22,040 Speaker 5: What Putin really wants, and he's been very explicit about it, 98 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 5: is to eliminate Ukraine as a sovereign independent country and 99 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:29,359 Speaker 5: eliminate the idea of a Ukrainian national identity. He sees 100 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:32,599 Speaker 5: them all as Russians or that he should have control 101 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:38,280 Speaker 5: over him. Giving up on that and accepting that Ukraine exists, 102 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:41,599 Speaker 5: that is a very very big deal, and I don't 103 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 5: think Ukraine is going to agree that Russia owns Ukrainian territory, 104 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:50,039 Speaker 5: has successfully seized it, but I think Zelensky will agree 105 00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 5: that he's not going to be able to take it 106 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:55,600 Speaker 5: back militarily. That is going to be a long term dispute, 107 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:58,159 Speaker 5: more like what we saw with East and West Germany 108 00:05:58,200 --> 00:05:58,919 Speaker 5: for forty years. 109 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 3: I want to ask you about the release of Mark Fogel. 110 00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:08,359 Speaker 3: Pretty remarkable to watch him arrive at the White House 111 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 3: as the snow was coming down last evening. If you 112 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 3: were with us on Bloomberg TV or YouTube there you 113 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:16,120 Speaker 3: see the image right now with the American flag draped 114 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:19,720 Speaker 3: over his shoulders. People should know, Ambassador, this was not 115 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 3: just some American teacher on an exchange program. His past 116 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:27,719 Speaker 3: students included the children of William Burns, Joe Biden's CIA director, 117 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 3: and Michael McFall, ambassador to Moscow during the Obama administration. 118 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:33,960 Speaker 3: There's writing this morning in the Wall Street Journal that 119 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:38,720 Speaker 3: the operation to detain him was an extensively coordinated trial 120 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:42,839 Speaker 3: run for future arrests planned by the Kremlin to actually 121 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:46,560 Speaker 3: include an American embassy school. Now that this has happened 122 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 3: and the White House has been pretty cagy about what 123 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:51,720 Speaker 3: went behind this deal. What are you hearing about the 124 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:55,040 Speaker 3: exchange that took place and what Russia got in return. 125 00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:58,720 Speaker 5: Well, it's interesting. I haven't heard very much directly. Maybe 126 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 5: we'll get more from President Trump when he's signing these 127 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:03,640 Speaker 5: executive orders later, maybe he'll tell us a little bit 128 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:06,159 Speaker 5: more of what was behind it. But I think this 129 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:10,400 Speaker 5: is really President Vladimir Putin trying to make a gesture 130 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 5: toward President Trump. He has seen that Trump has been 131 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:17,920 Speaker 5: talking with Zelensky. He's heard reports of maybe we get 132 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 5: minerals and access to some of the titanium or lithium 133 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 5: that Ukraine has in exchange for continuing to provide weapons 134 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 5: to Ukraine. It's hearing about security assurances for Ukraine, and 135 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:33,239 Speaker 5: I think he wanted to send a gesture to Trump 136 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:36,600 Speaker 5: to say, hey, I'm in the game here, I'm ready 137 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 5: to negotiate. Here's a good will gester. I'll let this 138 00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:42,679 Speaker 5: teacher go, because I think Putin may have been feeling 139 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 5: a little bit left out up to that point. 140 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 2: Well, an incredible that it was Steve Whitkoff, who of 141 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 2: course is serving as the envoy to the Middle East, 142 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 2: who was dispatched to Russia to pick up Mark Vogel 143 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 2: and take him home. Ambassador, what does that signal to 144 00:07:57,320 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 2: you about if Witkof is going to play a greater 145 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:03,120 Speaker 2: role with Russia in addition to what he's taken on 146 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 2: with the Middle East. 147 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:06,760 Speaker 5: It indicates that he will. And if you saw the 148 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 5: President Trump's truth social post about his phone call with 149 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:15,760 Speaker 5: President Putin, he named Marco Rubio, John Ratcliffs, a director, 150 00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 5: Mike Waltz, the National Security Advisor, and Witkoff as his 151 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 5: negotiating team for dealing with Russia about Ukraine. And what's 152 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 5: interesting there is his own Special representative for Ukraine and Russia. 153 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 5: Keith Kellogg was not mentioned. 154 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:36,199 Speaker 4: That is duly noted, Ambassador. It's great to have you back. 155 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:37,440 Speaker 3: It sounds like we're going to have a lot more 156 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:40,079 Speaker 3: to talk about as we make our way forward here 157 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:43,559 Speaker 3: talks beginning Friday in Munich. Kurt folk Or, former US 158 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 3: Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations, former US Ambassador to NATO, 159 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 3: thank you. 160 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 1: As always, you're listening to The Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. 161 00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 1: Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's 162 00:08:57,520 --> 00:09:00,600 Speaker 1: durn On Apple Cockley and Android Otto with the Bloomberg 163 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:03,840 Speaker 1: Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa 164 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 1: from our flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played 165 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty. 166 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 2: We have some new figures from here in Washington we 167 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:15,080 Speaker 2: want to talk about because we've been waiting for these 168 00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 2: for some time. It's the budget proposal from the Republican 169 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 2: led House of Representatives as they try to take the 170 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 2: first steps towards ultimately one big budget reconciliation package that 171 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 2: is intended at least to achieve all of the legislative 172 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:33,080 Speaker 2: priorities of President Trump. A big part of that, of course, 173 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:36,560 Speaker 2: is tax cuts, but border and energy policy folded into 174 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 2: this as well, And it was going to be a 175 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:41,840 Speaker 2: question of the dollar figures. And this proposed budget Joe 176 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:46,200 Speaker 2: would allow Congress, at least specifically the Tax Writing, Ways 177 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:48,319 Speaker 2: and Means Committee, to increase the deficit by four and 178 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:51,920 Speaker 2: a half trillion dollars over the next ten years. That 179 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:54,120 Speaker 2: may seem like a lot. The problem is all that 180 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 2: would really allow for is an extension of the twenty 181 00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 2: seventeen tax cuts, not all of these other ideas that 182 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:05,480 Speaker 2: we've seen, Salt cap being lifted, no tax on social security, overtime, etc. 183 00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:09,120 Speaker 2: So it seems like we may still have some negotiating. 184 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 3: These are pretty big numbers. The debt limit, will remind you, 185 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:16,720 Speaker 3: is already at thirty six trillion dollars. You cut taxes 186 00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 3: by four and a half, as Kayley mentioned, over ten years, 187 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 3: and the math gets to be really complicated if you 188 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 3: want to do anything else, like no tax on tips, 189 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:27,760 Speaker 3: no tax on overtime. We're not even touching entitlements right now. 190 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 3: And Douglas Oltzekin suddenly has a facial tick. He's back 191 00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:35,040 Speaker 3: with us on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Wanted to talk 192 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:37,200 Speaker 3: to the president of the American Action Forum because he 193 00:10:37,280 --> 00:10:39,679 Speaker 3: is the former director of the Congressional Budget Office, and 194 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 3: the CBO at some point is going to have a 195 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 3: product to score. Douglas, what do you think of the 196 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:48,559 Speaker 3: first salvo here? Just the fact that it's even happening 197 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:49,959 Speaker 3: is news today in Washington. 198 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 6: Well, certainly this is the first progress we've seen both 199 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:58,920 Speaker 6: the House with this chairman's mark, they'll have the hearing tomorrow. 200 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 7: Market up and over in the Senate. 201 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:04,600 Speaker 6: Senate Budget chair Lizzie Graham has done a similar effort 202 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 6: for a small bill that will be one of two 203 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 6: that accomplishes what the one big, beautiful House bill would accomplish, 204 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:13,719 Speaker 6: so we have a little activity on both sides of 205 00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 6: the Congress. I think the right way for people to 206 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 6: think about what they got today is that, roughly speaking, 207 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:24,960 Speaker 6: it allows for extension of the twenty seventeen tax law 208 00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 6: that's about four point seven trillion dollars, and then they 209 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:30,320 Speaker 6: have to pay for anything new. So if you're gonna 210 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:31,599 Speaker 6: do no tax on tips, you're gonna have to have 211 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:34,559 Speaker 6: some spending cuts. If you're gonna do no taxes in overtime, 212 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:38,440 Speaker 6: same thing, And so they can get to their bottom 213 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:42,200 Speaker 6: line numbers in that way. This resolution doesn't tell any 214 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:44,560 Speaker 6: committee how to get to their number ways means can 215 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 6: do whatever it wants. It just gives you this sort 216 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 6: of outline of what the numbers. 217 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 7: Have to be. 218 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:52,720 Speaker 2: Well, and one of those number requirements is that at 219 00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:55,520 Speaker 2: least one and a half trillion dollars in spending cuts 220 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:59,600 Speaker 2: need to take place over the next decade. Douglas looking 221 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 2: at proms like Medicaid snap for example, And this is 222 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 2: just what has already been outlined. So if they need 223 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 2: to find other spending cuts elsewhere to pay for further 224 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 2: tax cuts, what realistic buckets are they going to be 225 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 2: able to pull from. 226 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 7: Well, this has been a real challenge. 227 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:18,400 Speaker 6: Some members of the House wanted as much as two 228 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:20,800 Speaker 6: and a half or three trillion dollars to spending cuts initially. 229 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:24,679 Speaker 6: Obviously they came in much lower than that. Several members 230 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 6: have expressed reservation on touching medicaid. The President has said 231 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 6: Medicare and sole security are off limits. So you're down 232 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:34,560 Speaker 6: to a much smaller set of programs. So you've got 233 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:37,440 Speaker 6: the discretionary spending. No one wants to touch defense, so 234 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:40,760 Speaker 6: you're looking at non defense discretionary spending, and you're looking at. 235 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 7: The smaller. 236 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:46,000 Speaker 6: Mandatory spending programs. You know, things like crop support in 237 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 6: the Agricultural Department, modest things in the Financial Services Committee. 238 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 6: There's really no easy place to go for a lot 239 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 6: of money. The big programs are the money, and they're 240 00:12:57,640 --> 00:12:58,200 Speaker 6: off limits. 241 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,960 Speaker 3: Whether this is one bill or two, we do see 242 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:06,559 Speaker 3: the House and Senate both driving in their own directions here. 243 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 4: What do you make of this effort? 244 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:08,000 Speaker 8: Here? 245 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:10,319 Speaker 3: Will the Senate end up jamming the House? And does 246 00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 3: it matter in the end? Donald Trump doesn't seem to care. 247 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:17,120 Speaker 6: I think this is literally a matter of how do 248 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 6: you get to a majority in the House. In the Senate, 249 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:24,199 Speaker 6: you know, there are no style points in reconciliation. You've 250 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:26,120 Speaker 6: got to get to fifty one. In the Senate, you're 251 00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 6: going to have to get to two seventeen in the House. 252 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 6: They have no margin for error, so they're going to 253 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 6: add and subtract until they can get to yes. That 254 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 6: may look like one big bill, maybe two in the end, 255 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:38,559 Speaker 6: that's really good to just come down to count in 256 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:43,200 Speaker 6: the votes. It's the domestic policy agenda that's really what 257 00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:45,720 Speaker 6: the President should care about. How many little pieces it 258 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 6: comes in is not really too important to them. So 259 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:51,800 Speaker 6: whether they can do the border and the energy first, 260 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:54,640 Speaker 6: as the Senate would like to, then come back to tax, 261 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:56,440 Speaker 6: or do it all at once as the House is 262 00:13:56,440 --> 00:14:00,960 Speaker 6: trying to, I think, is really not fundament only that important. 263 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:04,760 Speaker 2: Well, how important is it that a debt ceiling increase 264 00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 2: is included in this package, Douglas? Because there are multiple 265 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 2: members of the House of Representatives in the Republican conference 266 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:14,960 Speaker 2: who are reluctant to vote for any debt ceiling increase. 267 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 2: How much harder does that make this. 268 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 7: I was surprised to see it in there. I'll be honest. 269 00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:23,640 Speaker 6: You know, we don't have to have a debt ceiling 270 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:26,240 Speaker 6: increase in the reconciliation process, we do have to have 271 00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:28,920 Speaker 6: either an increase or a suspension of the debt ceiling 272 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 6: by somewhere in late spring early summer. So that's a 273 00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:36,360 Speaker 6: must do a piece of the activity list in Congress. 274 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 6: So put it in here, go to the committee, see 275 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 6: if you can get it out of the budget community. 276 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:43,120 Speaker 6: If you can't get it out of the Budget committee, 277 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:45,240 Speaker 6: then it falls out of reconciliation and they have to 278 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 6: try it in some other bill. So I'd say that's 279 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 6: one to watch, but not count on being in the 280 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 6: final product. 281 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:56,960 Speaker 3: At the first hearing today of the House Oversight Committee's 282 00:14:57,200 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 3: DOGE subcommittee, Douglas, the chair, Marjorie Taylor Green, says it's 283 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 3: a topic that should be easy to be bi partisan on. That, 284 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 3: of course is not true. And I wonder what your 285 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 3: thought is on legislating the findings of DOGE. 286 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:22,040 Speaker 6: It'll be interesting to see what DOSE reports on July four, 287 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 6: twenty twenty six, which is its deadline. Thus far, I'd 288 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 6: say what they have would report would be okay. There's 289 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:33,920 Speaker 6: some systems that need modernized. Are you going to modernize 290 00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:37,080 Speaker 6: them and fund the modernization and there's a whole lot 291 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:40,160 Speaker 6: of change in the workforce that we think would be desirable, 292 00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:42,920 Speaker 6: and the question is whether they think they need legislation 293 00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:46,560 Speaker 6: to do that or not. Doge has transformed dramatically in 294 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 6: a short period of time. It was a an outside 295 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 6: the government voluntary effort. The President had put it inside 296 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 6: the government by assigning the executive Order that renamed the 297 00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 6: United States Digital Service, But that order gave it a 298 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:02,560 Speaker 6: very narrow mandate. It said, martynd irons technologies go. He 299 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 6: signed another executive Order the day ago which really laid 300 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 6: out the Workforce Agenda and essentially codified what Elon Muskin 301 00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:14,480 Speaker 6: Doge have been up to in reducing the number of 302 00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:17,760 Speaker 6: people working for the federal government and cutting out whole 303 00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 6: divisions of some agencies. They now have at least his 304 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 6: blessing to do that. It's going to be some partisan wrangling, 305 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 6: to be sure. One of the features of that executive 306 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 6: order it hasn't got a lot of attention, is just 307 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:31,120 Speaker 6: like he has one regulation in ten have to go 308 00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:32,800 Speaker 6: out in that executive order. 309 00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 7: If you hire a government worker, four have to go. 310 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 7: So it's one in four out for the government workforce. 311 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:42,400 Speaker 2: All right, good point, Douglas Holteek and President of the 312 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:45,440 Speaker 2: American Action Forum, joining us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 313 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 2: Thank you so much. And, of course, as we frequently 314 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:50,920 Speaker 2: pointed out, with the Doge, Elon Musk serving in his 315 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:54,520 Speaker 2: capacity leading the Department of Government Efficiency doing so having 316 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:57,880 Speaker 2: been not elected and not confirmed by the Senate. 317 00:16:58,320 --> 00:16:59,000 Speaker 4: That's correct. 318 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 3: Elon mush in the Oval Office yesterday with his son 319 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,760 Speaker 3: X A lot is being said about what the two 320 00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:06,720 Speaker 3: of them were wearing. 321 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:09,640 Speaker 4: But we're waiting to hear on more. 322 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 3: Appeals to these stoppages of the dismantling of USAID payments out. 323 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:18,320 Speaker 4: Of FEMA and so forth. We could have more news 324 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 4: on this today. 325 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 3: As Elon Musk says openly to reporters yesterday, we're moving 326 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:23,960 Speaker 3: so fast we will make mistakes. 327 00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:24,240 Speaker 8: Yeah. 328 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:26,919 Speaker 2: He's also calling for the impeachment of judges who are 329 00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 2: at that's right, against the interests of the Doge here. 330 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:32,840 Speaker 2: So this is a story we're going to continue to follow. 331 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:34,960 Speaker 2: But there's more stories to follow here in Washington today. 332 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,679 Speaker 2: As we talk about Elon Musk being unconfirmed, we can 333 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:39,919 Speaker 2: add one more person to the list of confirmed people 334 00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:43,600 Speaker 2: joining Donald Trump's second administration. Tulci Gabbard today getting the 335 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:46,400 Speaker 2: requisite votes in the Senate to be the next Director 336 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 2: of National Intelligence. And here with more is Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall. So, Tyler, 337 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 2: just weeks ago, we weren't sure that this was going 338 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,359 Speaker 2: to happen, and yet fifty two to forty eight she 339 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:57,359 Speaker 2: gets it done. 340 00:17:57,119 --> 00:18:00,439 Speaker 9: Exactly one of the most controversial picks for president. And 341 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:02,679 Speaker 9: if we take a step back on how we've reached 342 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:05,399 Speaker 9: this point, you will recall she narrowly advanced out of 343 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,399 Speaker 9: the Senate Intelligence Committee, where she had her confirmation hearing. 344 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:10,399 Speaker 9: One of those key votes that we were watching for 345 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:13,160 Speaker 9: was Senator Todd Young, a Republican from Indiana. I actually 346 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:14,919 Speaker 9: had the chance to catch up with him on Capitol 347 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 9: Hill a couple weeks ago, and he was dodging questions 348 00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:20,240 Speaker 9: from reporters on whether or not he could publicly back 349 00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 9: Tulci Gabbard. Ultimately, he said he received this list of 350 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 9: commitments from her. Notably on it, she has assured him 351 00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:29,480 Speaker 9: that she will support the reauthorization of section seven oh 352 00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 9: two under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act FAIZA, which we 353 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:35,879 Speaker 9: know that she had previously raised these security concerns about. 354 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:38,720 Speaker 9: But ultimately is considered to be pretty important to the 355 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:41,479 Speaker 9: national security community. So it was commitments like that, but 356 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:43,800 Speaker 9: also a rhetoric like this that I want you to 357 00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:46,120 Speaker 9: take a listen to that helped to get this nomination 358 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 9: over the finish line. 359 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:50,040 Speaker 8: If confirmed as d and I I will do my 360 00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 8: very best to fulfill this mandate and bring leadership to 361 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:57,680 Speaker 8: the intelligence community with the laser like focus on our 362 00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:02,159 Speaker 8: essential mission ensuring this safety, security, and freedom of the 363 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:03,000 Speaker 8: American people. 364 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:07,520 Speaker 9: Now. Gabbard has also made other sort of commitments that 365 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 9: lawmakers were looking for, including that she will not make 366 00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:12,359 Speaker 9: any recommendation when it comes to the legal standing of 367 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 9: Edward Snowden that was considered to be one of those 368 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,119 Speaker 9: hot topics during her confirmation hearing, after she had previously 369 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:21,119 Speaker 9: suggested that the charges against him should be dropped. But 370 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 9: it's not just some of these positions that were controversial. 371 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:25,879 Speaker 9: Of course, we should note Toulcie Gabbert is a former 372 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 9: Democrat and that also kind of heightened her nomination here. 373 00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:32,560 Speaker 9: Of course, though we weren't expecting any Democrats to go 374 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:34,200 Speaker 9: against it. At the end of the day, only one 375 00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:38,000 Speaker 9: Republican broke and that was former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. 376 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:38,479 Speaker 4: How about that. 377 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:41,199 Speaker 3: I'm very curious to see how he votes on another 378 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,680 Speaker 3: nominee we were told might never pass, and that would 379 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:47,119 Speaker 3: be RFK Junior. He's got another important vote on the 380 00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:47,680 Speaker 3: way as well. 381 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:50,880 Speaker 9: Right, And while Mitch McConnell did vote to invoke cloture 382 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,440 Speaker 9: as it's known, this key procedural hurdle that he ended 383 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:57,160 Speaker 9: up passing earlier today, that basically clears the way for 384 00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 9: his nomination to pass. Although Mitch McConnell could end up 385 00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:01,640 Speaker 9: vote against it, but at the end of the day 386 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:04,679 Speaker 9: it wouldn't be enough. Of course, we know that he 387 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:07,440 Speaker 9: needs a simple majority one vote whenn't put him over. 388 00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:10,359 Speaker 9: He is slated for a final vote tomorrow. That is 389 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:12,920 Speaker 9: pretty early in the morning. We're expecting a seven am vote. 390 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 9: It just goes to show how this Senate is working 391 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:17,200 Speaker 9: very hard to try to get these nominations. 392 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 4: The Senate in a seventh That's what I was saying. 393 00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:21,359 Speaker 4: They're gonna have to finish shoveling first, I think. 394 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:24,080 Speaker 3: Bloomber's Tyler Kendall, thank you so much, Tyler. 395 00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:25,320 Speaker 4: We've got a lot more to cover. 396 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:32,160 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 397 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:35,200 Speaker 1: US live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 398 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:38,600 Speaker 1: Apple Coarclay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 399 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:42,000 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 400 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:44,840 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube and. 401 00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:47,679 Speaker 3: The gavel drops on a second day of testimony from 402 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:51,679 Speaker 3: the FED Chair J Powell, Chair French Hill of the 403 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,679 Speaker 3: House Financial Services Committee wrapping things up there and what 404 00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:56,959 Speaker 3: was a multi hour affair, as we expected, a bit 405 00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:59,240 Speaker 3: longer than the Senate side yesterday because there are many 406 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 3: more members in this House committee, a FED chair who 407 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 3: clearly sees more work to do, as we understood from 408 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 3: very similar commentary as we heard yesterday on this CPI day. 409 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:12,640 Speaker 3: Of course, J Powell reacting to that as well. I'm 410 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,360 Speaker 3: Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines and Washington. Thanks for being 411 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 3: with us on Bloomberg TV and Radio. The Wednesday edition 412 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:21,520 Speaker 3: of Ballots of Power, Kaylee and day two of testimony 413 00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 3: from j Powell on a day that he was reading 414 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,960 Speaker 3: on truth social from President Trump that it's time to 415 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,399 Speaker 3: cut interest rates. Not likely something that's going to happen 416 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 3: until the end of the year, if at all. 417 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:34,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, we did not get the indication from the chairman 418 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 2: that cutting interest rates is really what the Fed is 419 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:38,399 Speaker 2: looking to do at this point, especially in light of 420 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:40,840 Speaker 2: data like today work month on month, year on year, 421 00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:43,880 Speaker 2: core and headline CPI came in hot, and it's that 422 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:47,239 Speaker 2: still persistent inflationary pressure that is leaving the Fed on 423 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:49,240 Speaker 2: hold for now. And we did hear the Chairman doubling 424 00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:51,520 Speaker 2: down on that as he fielded questions on a number 425 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 2: of other things as well. It was not just about 426 00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:56,680 Speaker 2: monetary policy. Lots of fiscal policy oriented questions that the 427 00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,040 Speaker 2: Chairman had to deal with today as Congress is working 428 00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 2: through a budget process, a. 429 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,240 Speaker 3: Lot of questions about the DOGE as well, which is 430 00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:06,000 Speaker 3: of course kind of top of mind everywhere right now 431 00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:08,320 Speaker 3: in the nation's capital. Just a day after we saw 432 00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:11,919 Speaker 3: Elon Musk holding forth in the Oval Office with the 433 00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:14,560 Speaker 3: President of the United States. Elizabeth Warren was on with 434 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:17,000 Speaker 3: a balance of power last evening referred to him as 435 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:18,160 Speaker 3: co President Musk. 436 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,200 Speaker 2: Yeah. Elizabeth Warren, of course, the senator from Massachusetts, also 437 00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 2: told us last night she still thinks the Fed should 438 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:25,760 Speaker 2: be cutting correct at this point. So maybe there is 439 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:28,199 Speaker 2: something that Warren and Trump do agree on, but on 440 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 2: the subject of rates and where the appropriate level has 441 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:32,639 Speaker 2: been for the FED funds rate at given times. We 442 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:36,360 Speaker 2: did hear the Chairman in his testimony with some reflection 443 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 2: on that. 444 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:41,600 Speaker 10: We'll say, and I've said before that hindsight suggests it 445 00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:44,199 Speaker 10: would have been good if we had tightened earlier. I 446 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:45,919 Speaker 10: don't know how much difference that would have made, but 447 00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:47,679 Speaker 10: I'd be very careful with those rules. 448 00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 7: Those rules. 449 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:51,560 Speaker 10: Those rules in the middle of last year suggested that 450 00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:54,480 Speaker 10: our policy rate was a couple hundred basis points too high, 451 00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:59,000 Speaker 10: so we need to They're a starting point, not an 452 00:22:59,040 --> 00:22:59,760 Speaker 10: ending point. 453 00:22:59,560 --> 00:22:59,639 Speaker 9: Is. 454 00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:04,119 Speaker 2: So for more on this, we turned to Michael McKee, 455 00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:07,080 Speaker 2: Bloomberg International Economics and Policy correspondent, who was still with 456 00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:10,360 Speaker 2: us here in Washington, d C. So obviously we heard 457 00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 2: a lot of the same from the Chairman today as 458 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:15,240 Speaker 2: we did yesterday, and in light of the data, he's 459 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:17,960 Speaker 2: kind of stay infirmed that even if they moved too late, 460 00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,000 Speaker 2: they aren't eager to do too much too early. 461 00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:22,760 Speaker 11: This time a little bit of different choreography on the 462 00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 11: House side, but the message was the same that the 463 00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:28,159 Speaker 11: FED is on hold. And he was asked about the 464 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:32,840 Speaker 11: CPI today and said, basically, we look at the. 465 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,359 Speaker 12: PCEE, which is running a little bit lower. 466 00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:38,360 Speaker 11: And doesn't have some of the same weights of housing 467 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 11: in particular and medical services that the CPI does, so 468 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 11: it comes in a little bit lower. 469 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:47,400 Speaker 12: So we're not as worried, and we're not worried because. 470 00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:49,600 Speaker 11: It was just one month and we'll see what happens 471 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,960 Speaker 11: in coming months. But he didn't give any ground on 472 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 11: the idea that they're going to be thinking of cutting 473 00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:57,800 Speaker 11: rates anytime again soon. 474 00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:00,920 Speaker 12: He repeated that they have no idea. 475 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,040 Speaker 11: What the President is going to do, and so they 476 00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:06,040 Speaker 11: can't analyze it or figure out what it means. He 477 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 11: was specifically asked about that tweet from the President calling 478 00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,240 Speaker 11: for lower interest rates, and he said, I don't comment 479 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:13,480 Speaker 11: on what the President says. 480 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:15,879 Speaker 3: Well, so, but what's really going on there? The interest 481 00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,680 Speaker 3: rates should be lowered. Donald Trump writes something which would 482 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:21,439 Speaker 3: go hand in hand with upcoming tariffs. Let's rock and 483 00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:23,600 Speaker 3: roll America three exclamation points. 484 00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:23,920 Speaker 7: I know J. 485 00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:26,280 Speaker 3: Powell is a grateful dead fan, but what is he 486 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,600 Speaker 3: in for if he has no interest in cutting rates 487 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,400 Speaker 3: essentially until the end of the year. If then, when 488 00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:34,919 Speaker 3: Donald Trump is already on truth social and probably on 489 00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:36,080 Speaker 3: the phone as well. 490 00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:38,680 Speaker 11: Well, that's going to be an interesting question to see 491 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:42,359 Speaker 11: how far Donald Trump goes. Remember when the Fed last 492 00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,760 Speaker 11: met and didn't cut interest rates, Trump said that was okay. 493 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:47,200 Speaker 12: Probably what he would have done. 494 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:50,199 Speaker 11: And Powell has the excuse, which would be hard for 495 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:53,520 Speaker 11: Trump to argue with, that they don't know what the 496 00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:55,679 Speaker 11: President's going to do, so they don't know what the 497 00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:59,200 Speaker 11: impact on the economy is. Once all this stuff is 498 00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:04,120 Speaker 11: taking care, probably once they get through reconciliation and they 499 00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:08,560 Speaker 11: move on to maybe a reconciliation too in taxes, then 500 00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:12,159 Speaker 11: they might start putting pencil to paper and decide what 501 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:15,880 Speaker 11: they're going to do. Is certainly classical economics would tell 502 00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:19,840 Speaker 11: you that tariffs are inflationary, and so you go into 503 00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:24,240 Speaker 11: it probably believing you have less reason to cut going forward. 504 00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:27,280 Speaker 11: But this could be an ongoing process. The Fed's not 505 00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:30,399 Speaker 11: going to know for quite some time. Markets will go 506 00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:34,000 Speaker 11: up and down on whatever the data is, and nothing's 507 00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:36,240 Speaker 11: really going to change. And we know the President's always 508 00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:40,160 Speaker 11: going to want lower interest rates, But does he make 509 00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:41,520 Speaker 11: a federal case out of it. 510 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,000 Speaker 12: He seems awfully busy with other things right now. 511 00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,200 Speaker 2: Well, certainly that is true, and keeping us busy while 512 00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:49,959 Speaker 2: he himself remains so. Mike to the point, though, that 513 00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,800 Speaker 2: classic economics would tell you that tariffs are inflationary. Is 514 00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:56,240 Speaker 2: there though a risk that the upside risk to inflation 515 00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:59,320 Speaker 2: is outdone by a downside risk to growth if consumers 516 00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:02,000 Speaker 2: are suddenly fail with higher prices and change their behavior 517 00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:02,600 Speaker 2: as a result. 518 00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,680 Speaker 11: Well, it's interesting because Kevin Hassett was on Bloomberg TV 519 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,240 Speaker 11: today and made a couple of other appearances where he 520 00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 11: said the administration is looking to increase supply and decrease 521 00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:18,160 Speaker 11: aggregate demand, which is essentially a recipe for recession. And 522 00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:20,760 Speaker 11: when we pressed him on it, he said, no, we're 523 00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:24,840 Speaker 11: not looking for a recession and that's not our plan here. 524 00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,960 Speaker 11: Increased supply will take care of all the problems. But 525 00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:30,119 Speaker 11: that hasn't worked in the past. 526 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:31,240 Speaker 12: So the question. 527 00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:35,760 Speaker 11: Is is what are the impacts going to be. You 528 00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:40,080 Speaker 11: go back to Paul Volker. That's what he did, raising 529 00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,520 Speaker 11: rates to cut aggregate demand, and Ronald Reagan was a 530 00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:48,719 Speaker 11: supply side, cutting taxes and we got two significant recessions. 531 00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:54,320 Speaker 11: So it's hard to see how they can make this work, 532 00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:56,480 Speaker 11: but that's their argument at the moment. 533 00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:58,040 Speaker 3: It's great to have you with us a second day 534 00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:00,840 Speaker 3: in a row. Michael McKee down from the World headquarters in 535 00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 3: New York. On this second day of testimony by Chair J. 536 00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:09,359 Speaker 3: Powell mentioned Kevin Hassett, of course, running the NEEC, the 537 00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:12,800 Speaker 3: National Economic Council inside this new Trump white House. He 538 00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:16,080 Speaker 3: indeed was on Bloomberg TV and radio earlier today. Here's 539 00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:17,160 Speaker 3: what he said about inflation. 540 00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:21,160 Speaker 13: Austin Goolesby, the Chicago FED President, just gave a speech 541 00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:23,560 Speaker 13: a couple of days ago saying, hey, inflation's under control. 542 00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:25,480 Speaker 13: And here we see that we're looking at a three 543 00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:28,640 Speaker 13: month moving average above four. Right, So that's not what 544 00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:32,479 Speaker 13: the FED should be saying right now, and it's not true. 545 00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:35,159 Speaker 13: But we're going to fix it with or without the FED. 546 00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:37,960 Speaker 4: With or without the FED. 547 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,440 Speaker 3: As we add the voice now of Catherine Edwards's economic 548 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:43,720 Speaker 3: policy consulted with us here on balance of power. Catherine, 549 00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:46,360 Speaker 3: it's great to have you back. What is that supposed 550 00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,359 Speaker 3: to mean? And how much can the White House do 551 00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:48,960 Speaker 3: on its own? 552 00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:54,000 Speaker 14: The White House can has control of its own policy, 553 00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:57,560 Speaker 14: but its economic research is very clear. The independence of 554 00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,800 Speaker 14: the FED is integral to a successful economy, and the 555 00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,920 Speaker 14: less independence the FED has, or a central bank has 556 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,360 Speaker 14: over its own decision making the worst the economy. 557 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:12,080 Speaker 2: Performs well and clearly we heard many references to FED 558 00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:16,119 Speaker 2: independence over the course of these two days of testimony, Catherine. 559 00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:18,719 Speaker 2: We also heard many references to fiscal policy, which, as 560 00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:22,040 Speaker 2: the Chairman reiterated, is not in their purview. But as 561 00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:25,240 Speaker 2: we think about the policies pursued by this administration, whether 562 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,600 Speaker 2: it's deficit additive, whether a tax cuts are in play, 563 00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:30,960 Speaker 2: how does the FED realistically have to be thinking about 564 00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:31,680 Speaker 2: this at this point? 565 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:34,959 Speaker 14: I mean it has to think about its room to maneuver, 566 00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:37,720 Speaker 14: which I think is very predictive of where rate cuts 567 00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,840 Speaker 14: or not rate cuts will be over the next twelve months. 568 00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,120 Speaker 14: There's a lot of uncertainty in the economy, there's a 569 00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:46,000 Speaker 14: lot of weakness in the economy, and you're adding incredibly 570 00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:49,480 Speaker 14: disruptive policy. So I think the economy right now has 571 00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,960 Speaker 14: very good numbers. We're in a stable position, and I 572 00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:55,040 Speaker 14: think that's where Powell wants to be, to have the 573 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:57,560 Speaker 14: room to go up or down with interest rates as 574 00:28:57,600 --> 00:28:59,640 Speaker 14: prices or growth. 575 00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:02,200 Speaker 4: Dictation, Catherine. 576 00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:05,040 Speaker 3: Before President Trump kicked out the Rock and Roll America 577 00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:10,720 Speaker 3: truth he posted when CPI numbers were released, Biden inflation up. 578 00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 3: Of course, we know that interest rates have been rising 579 00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,400 Speaker 3: a bit most recently and since Donald Trump took office, 580 00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:20,320 Speaker 3: we've got a ten year up today to four sixty three. 581 00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:25,320 Speaker 3: Is this the last gasp of Biden inflation? And how 582 00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:26,959 Speaker 3: should this White House be framing it? 583 00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:29,920 Speaker 12: I don't know. 584 00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:32,640 Speaker 14: That's a hard question to answer because I don't know 585 00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:36,200 Speaker 14: if it's right to call something. I mean, politicians love 586 00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:38,200 Speaker 14: to take all the credit for a good economy and 587 00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:40,200 Speaker 14: none of the credit for a bad economy, and of 588 00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,760 Speaker 14: course blame their opponents when something goes wrong. I mean 589 00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:45,520 Speaker 14: it's a really you know, politicians view on the economies 590 00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:48,040 Speaker 14: having their cake and eat it too. So I mean, 591 00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:50,000 Speaker 14: let him have his moment. He doesn't have to be 592 00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:52,680 Speaker 14: held to his word. He doesn't dictate interest rate policy, 593 00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:55,440 Speaker 14: and so he can say what he would like about 594 00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:59,040 Speaker 14: this data release and its interpretation in terms of interest 595 00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:01,880 Speaker 14: rate policy. But the blame game on politicians, I mean, 596 00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,040 Speaker 14: that's a tale as old as time doesn't have any 597 00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:06,360 Speaker 14: weight on what is actually going on in the economy. 598 00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:10,520 Speaker 2: Well, so as we talk about the reality of what 599 00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:14,200 Speaker 2: is going on in the economy, and you're pointing to weaknesses, Catherine, 600 00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:16,480 Speaker 2: and we look back at last Friday, for example, in 601 00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:19,520 Speaker 2: the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment data, which dropped, inflation 602 00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:23,320 Speaker 2: expectations went up. Just how vulnerable is the consumer right 603 00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:26,560 Speaker 2: now as we're talking about things like high egg prices, 604 00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:30,000 Speaker 2: concerns around tariffs, and changes in the labor market, be 605 00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:34,000 Speaker 2: it from deportation and migration changes to what's going on 606 00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:35,000 Speaker 2: with the federal government. 607 00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:40,680 Speaker 14: You know, this inflation spike that has since receded. You know, 608 00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:42,920 Speaker 14: we're hanging out at a rate that's you know, at 609 00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:45,240 Speaker 14: a price rate that is a little bit higher than 610 00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:48,160 Speaker 14: what the Fed would would prefer. But it's helpful to 611 00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:51,800 Speaker 14: remember that when this started, we were in a gangbusters 612 00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:54,080 Speaker 14: economy with a labor market that we had, you know, 613 00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,959 Speaker 14: stronger than one that basically we had ever seen. Wages 614 00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:59,400 Speaker 14: were growing at a great clip, you had an incredible 615 00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:02,320 Speaker 14: amount of high we're an incredibly low unemployment rate. We're 616 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:06,000 Speaker 14: not in that labor market now. Right now, the hiring 617 00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:09,600 Speaker 14: rate in the US economy is equivalent to hiring rates 618 00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:12,080 Speaker 14: that we typically see when the unemployment rate is north 619 00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:14,680 Speaker 14: of eight percent. If you look at the unemployment rate, 620 00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:16,400 Speaker 14: the labor market is fine. If you look at the 621 00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:18,640 Speaker 14: hiring rate, the labor market is in the middle of 622 00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:21,240 Speaker 14: a deep recession. Wages are not growing at the clip 623 00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:24,040 Speaker 14: that they used to. The ability for a strong labor 624 00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 14: market to buffer continued price increases is simply not there. 625 00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:31,520 Speaker 14: We're in a much weaker position as a result of 626 00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:35,280 Speaker 14: years of interest rate hikes. So the concern that I 627 00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:37,800 Speaker 14: have is that we are simply we have a lot 628 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:40,600 Speaker 14: of households and a lot of businesses that have been 629 00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:44,640 Speaker 14: holding on for better days and are not necessarily prepared 630 00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:48,440 Speaker 14: to take another inflation spike, another hike and interest rates. 631 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,720 Speaker 14: Now I'm worried how long this kind of purgatory that 632 00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:54,920 Speaker 14: the economy is in can hold in the phase of 633 00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:58,400 Speaker 14: either bad economic news or bad economic decisions. 634 00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:03,120 Speaker 3: So how long then before we're hearing predictions of another recession. 635 00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:06,920 Speaker 14: I thought that that's jobs the economists to always be 636 00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:09,760 Speaker 14: making predictions of recessions, and that way we're eventually proved. 637 00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:11,600 Speaker 4: Right, So when does it start, Catherine? 638 00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:15,360 Speaker 14: You know what Powell said in his last press conference 639 00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:18,520 Speaker 14: is something that I've seen through the labor market data 640 00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:21,920 Speaker 14: is that, you know, the problem with having a hiring 641 00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:25,680 Speaker 14: rate so low is that it can accelerate an increase 642 00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:28,480 Speaker 14: in unemployment. I mean, if hiring is already at levels 643 00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:31,400 Speaker 14: that we typically see in recessions, it doesn't take long 644 00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:36,000 Speaker 14: for a blip in layoffs to become a meteoric rise 645 00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:38,440 Speaker 14: in the unemployment rate. And that was his concern. He 646 00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:40,400 Speaker 14: said at the last meeting, We're very worried about the 647 00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:44,400 Speaker 14: hiring rate. It's an accelerant on an unemployment rate increase 648 00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:47,040 Speaker 14: to have hiring already so low as opposed to see 649 00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:50,560 Speaker 14: hiring fall from a place of strength. You know, that 650 00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:53,160 Speaker 14: means that we don't necessarily have a year or two 651 00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:56,080 Speaker 14: years to see a recession coming. It could happen relatively 652 00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,400 Speaker 14: quickly with a big shock to the economy. 653 00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:02,200 Speaker 2: Well, what if one of those shocks is, for example, 654 00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:05,760 Speaker 2: as we watch what's happening on Capitol Hill laps in 655 00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:08,640 Speaker 2: the twenty seventeen tax cuts, if Congress cannot find its 656 00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:11,720 Speaker 2: way forward on a package to make those permanent, Catherine, 657 00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:13,880 Speaker 2: what would that realistically do to the economy if everyone 658 00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:15,120 Speaker 2: effectively got a tax hike. 659 00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:19,520 Speaker 14: Well, the interesting thing about tax cuts is that they're 660 00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:23,040 Speaker 14: not very strong economic policy in either direction because they're 661 00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:26,560 Speaker 14: not targeted and they're not timely. So if I have 662 00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:29,440 Speaker 14: a tax rate increase that passes through the end of 663 00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,560 Speaker 14: twenty twenty five, that's going to hit the tax rates 664 00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:35,240 Speaker 14: that people pay almost a year from now, and it's 665 00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:38,880 Speaker 14: a marginal change to any individual taxes. So I might 666 00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,680 Speaker 14: face a half a point increase marginal rate on the 667 00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:44,920 Speaker 14: taxes that I pay, but you know it's going to 668 00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:46,520 Speaker 14: take a year for that to go into an effect, 669 00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:48,719 Speaker 14: and that's spread out over a year's earnings. I mean, 670 00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:51,240 Speaker 14: this is why tax This is why tax cuts are 671 00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:55,560 Speaker 14: such ineffective economic policy, is because they're distributed throughout the economy. 672 00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:57,760 Speaker 14: And of course helpful to keep in mind that the 673 00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:00,400 Speaker 14: bottom fifty percent of households doesn't have that high tax 674 00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:02,960 Speaker 14: rate to begin with. So to the extent that there 675 00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:05,680 Speaker 14: are acute effects of tax policy, they tend to be 676 00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:08,880 Speaker 14: concentrated amongst the Americans that have the most ability to 677 00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:12,040 Speaker 14: face economic problems because they are richer and wealthier. So, 678 00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:14,200 Speaker 14: you know, you tell me that the step up basis 679 00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:17,000 Speaker 14: is going to start having a more targeted tax of 680 00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:20,360 Speaker 14: wealth upon inheritance, that's not going to affect you know, 681 00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:22,719 Speaker 14: ninety five percent of Americans. If you tell me that 682 00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,200 Speaker 14: we're no longer allowed the estate tax is going to 683 00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:28,480 Speaker 14: fall from twenty six million dollars, that's again, that's not 684 00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:30,480 Speaker 14: going to affect the vast majority of Americans. 685 00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:36,480 Speaker 2: All Right, Katherine Edwards, economic policy consultant and Bloomberg opinion contributor, 686 00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:37,479 Speaker 2: Thank you so much. 687 00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:44,719 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 688 00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:47,719 Speaker 3: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 689 00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:50,399 Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 690 00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:53,680 Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 691 00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:55,400 Speaker 3: at Bloomberg dot com.