WEBVTT - Beating The Book: The 88th Masters Betting Preview 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.320 Tuesday morning, April ninth, twenty twenty four. It is the 0:00:06.320 --> 0:00:10.880 Beating the Book Podcast, the eighty eighth Masters tradition, unlike 0:00:10.920 --> 0:00:14.400 any other from Augusta, first major of the year, as 0:00:14.400 --> 0:00:19.080 always Skill Alexander joined by a steamed panel of golf 0:00:19.120 --> 0:00:22.759 experts for the second straight year. Kelly, you might have 0:00:22.800 --> 0:00:24.959 been on for three years, but for the second straight 0:00:25.000 --> 0:00:25.840 year the duo here. 0:00:25.880 --> 0:00:26.800 That's a great question. 0:00:26.920 --> 0:00:29.200 Yeah, we were going through like the history of Beating 0:00:29.200 --> 0:00:30.360 the Book Masters pod. 0:00:30.480 --> 0:00:32.000 This this is only my second year on. 0:00:32.240 --> 0:00:35.360 Okay, so you and West both to two thirds of 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:37.960 the long shots caring by long shots, I mean there 0:00:38.000 --> 0:00:41.400 is a podcast, a dedicated golf podcast that Vison has 0:00:41.800 --> 0:00:46.479 called long Shots, a colloquial colloquially called it's called long shots. 0:00:46.640 --> 0:00:48.120 Is That's how Matt Brown used to do the promo. 0:00:48.560 --> 0:00:50.120 Matt Brown too much of a divad to be on 0:00:50.159 --> 0:00:52.199 the show. It's not true. He's going to Augusta, so 0:00:52.200 --> 0:00:54.640 we give him an excuse. But the other two members 0:00:54.880 --> 0:00:58.080 for a second straight year, the great Wes Reynolds everybody 0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:01.120 co host of Vison tonight doing Wes, thanks for doing 0:01:01.120 --> 0:01:01.560 this again. 0:01:01.880 --> 0:01:03.840 I'm well, Gil, thanks for having me and. 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:10.440 Congratulations on the future Jaeger fifty to one two weeks ago. 0:01:10.480 --> 0:01:11.400 Were you on Batilla? 0:01:12.480 --> 0:01:15.640 I was not just for a placement market, but he 0:01:15.680 --> 0:01:18.080 was very well tipped in the market and was able 0:01:18.120 --> 0:01:20.800 to get at home in that playoff. Now, now, when 0:01:20.840 --> 0:01:23.440 he heard his shoulder though in the playoff, all I 0:01:23.480 --> 0:01:23.759 was like. 0:01:24.000 --> 0:01:28.000 Man, this is like very tennis. This is exactly hard. Gil. 0:01:28.080 --> 0:01:30.240 I was like, man, this is like Ropp and Nadal 0:01:30.400 --> 0:01:32.720 going to the trainer and like the fourpe said at 0:01:32.800 --> 0:01:36.240 Roland Garros or something. But nevertheless, he got it home 0:01:36.680 --> 0:01:38.160 after he got that shoulder taped. 0:01:38.240 --> 0:01:40.480 What Wes is referring to. For those who don't know, 0:01:40.520 --> 0:01:45.040 ak Shee Batilla, who won the Valero Open this past week, 0:01:45.680 --> 0:01:48.600 had a six shot lead going into the back nine, 0:01:48.640 --> 0:01:52.639 and then Denny McCarthy went ballistic, birdied ten, part eleven 0:01:52.680 --> 0:01:55.840 and then birdied twelve, thirteen, fourteen, fifty, sixteen, seventeen, eighteen, 0:01:56.680 --> 0:02:01.520 and it required Akha Batilla to have a tournament tying 0:02:01.640 --> 0:02:04.080 putt on eighteen. It looked like he was going to 0:02:04.200 --> 0:02:06.960 lose it in regulation, if you will, he sinks the 0:02:06.960 --> 0:02:10.480 putt and in celebration it was It was a pretty 0:02:10.520 --> 0:02:13.559 tough putt too. It was not a short butt. In celebration, 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:17.880 he pumps his left arm and Batilla what we say, Wes, 0:02:17.880 --> 0:02:20.320 he weighs what ninety seven ninety eight pounds roughly? 0:02:20.440 --> 0:02:23.200 Yeah, he does this, big tall guy, big tall, skinny guy. 0:02:23.200 --> 0:02:26.440 It was very It was very grammatica of uh. 0:02:27.160 --> 0:02:29.840 Very grammatica. That's why we have Wes on the show 0:02:29.880 --> 0:02:32.760 for reverences like that. Correct, was that Martin? Just to 0:02:32.760 --> 0:02:34.320 get my grammatica's correct. 0:02:34.080 --> 0:02:38.080 I believe it was Martine Grammatica. Okay, jumped on in 0:02:38.160 --> 0:02:41.519 the field goal celebration and then stumbled to the ground 0:02:41.560 --> 0:02:42.000 after that. 0:02:42.000 --> 0:02:43.919 That's the right, one of the great moments in NFL 0:02:44.000 --> 0:02:47.280 celebration history. So anyway, he dis he What we learn 0:02:47.480 --> 0:02:49.400 on the playoff hole because they go back and play 0:02:49.440 --> 0:02:53.080 eighteen again is that he's called for a trainer, and 0:02:53.120 --> 0:02:55.240 Wes is exactly right. This is like every tennis player 0:02:55.240 --> 0:02:58.160 who falls behind, Oh my leg I need a trainer, 0:02:58.360 --> 0:03:01.520 just trying to like really like stay time. Sometimes it's legit, 0:03:01.720 --> 0:03:03.800 and in Batia's case, it was legit, and the announcers 0:03:03.840 --> 0:03:05.639 were and I was texting Kelly. Kelly was on the 0:03:05.680 --> 0:03:07.359 air because he couldn't really get it because he was 0:03:07.400 --> 0:03:10.200 on the air. I'm texting Kelly. I'm like, the announcers 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:13.160 are speculating that he dislo that he heard his shoulder, 0:03:13.200 --> 0:03:15.280 first heard his shoulder on the celebration, and then I 0:03:15.360 --> 0:03:18.160 was like, oh my god, it's confirmed. He partially dislocated 0:03:18.160 --> 0:03:21.000 his shoulder. But it didn't matter in the end because 0:03:21.000 --> 0:03:23.120 he was still able to hit an approach shot or 0:03:23.160 --> 0:03:26.520 the shot before the approach shot. And then McCarthy hid 0:03:26.560 --> 0:03:28.120 in the creek anyway, and then I'm sure his elbow 0:03:28.360 --> 0:03:31.160 his shoulder started feeling much better. It's tough to put 0:03:31.200 --> 0:03:34.400 from the creek, Denny, Yeah, it is, Wes. Let me 0:03:34.440 --> 0:03:36.360 just before, by the way, that's the voice of Kelly Bidlin. 0:03:36.360 --> 0:03:39.080 I shouldn't assume that this audience knows who you are. 0:03:38.680 --> 0:03:41.560 You're like, yeap and like it's the Numbers Games. That's 0:03:41.640 --> 0:03:43.960 Kelly Biblin, along with Wes Reynolds two thirds of the 0:03:43.960 --> 0:03:46.960 long Shots crew. And before I asked Wes this question, 0:03:47.280 --> 0:03:50.720 the third member of the panel is Sia Najade, who 0:03:50.720 --> 0:03:52.920 we have on the radio side all the time. Sia 0:03:53.000 --> 0:03:55.760 is a host and analyst at sports Line and the 0:03:55.880 --> 0:04:00.200 Monumental Sports Network in Good Old DC, in the dmv 0:04:00.920 --> 0:04:02.440 uh Sea comes to us. You won't be able to 0:04:02.480 --> 0:04:04.360 see this, but he has a uh he has a 0:04:04.440 --> 0:04:07.720 one of the all time very good Santana Moss photo 0:04:07.800 --> 0:04:10.040 behind him where he's thrown up the twenty one for 0:04:10.080 --> 0:04:13.200 Sean Taylor Jolways love Sea. Good morning, Thank you for 0:04:13.280 --> 0:04:13.920 doing this man. 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:15.840 Good morning, listen. 0:04:16.000 --> 0:04:18.800 I wish I was on the right side of Batilla 0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:21.159 for the outright, but I had him for a first 0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:23.080 round leader at sixty five to one. The reason I 0:04:23.120 --> 0:04:26.120 bring that up is because it's I have a lot 0:04:26.160 --> 0:04:28.760 in common with Akhabt. You guys know, I've told this story. 0:04:28.800 --> 0:04:32.480 I've dislocated my shoulders seven times, like fully dislocated before 0:04:33.160 --> 0:04:36.839 before the first yeah, before the first of seven playing basketball, 0:04:36.880 --> 0:04:39.520 mostly before the first of seven. It would it would 0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:42.160 go like Oxhays went, where it would pop out but 0:04:42.200 --> 0:04:44.760 then pop right back in and basically be okay outside 0:04:44.760 --> 0:04:47.760 of some soreness. So uh, anyway, I could very much 0:04:47.800 --> 0:04:49.640 relate to that. It was painful for me to watch 0:04:49.720 --> 0:04:52.240 after I realized what had happened when he was pumping 0:04:52.240 --> 0:04:56.080 his fist, But yeah, that brought back some gruesome memories 0:04:56.080 --> 0:04:56.480 for sure. 0:04:57.160 --> 0:04:58.359 Seven times. 0:04:59.160 --> 0:04:59.880 Is it just like it. 0:05:00.000 --> 0:05:01.680 It's gonna happen for the rest of your life, that 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:02.920 it's just going to pop out now. 0:05:03.520 --> 0:05:05.719 When it's in compromising positions. 0:05:05.800 --> 0:05:08.920 Yes, it's usually like you know, playing basketball the football. 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:10.800 I put it in an awkward spot, weight gets pushed 0:05:10.839 --> 0:05:12.680 against it, it comes out. It's very hard to put 0:05:12.680 --> 0:05:13.120 it back out. 0:05:13.480 --> 0:05:15.160 I wasn't gonna ask about the compromise. 0:05:16.320 --> 0:05:18.279 Now, are you like falling rigs at this point? 0:05:18.320 --> 0:05:21.960 See, I like you against the wall like Mel Gibson style, 0:05:22.120 --> 0:05:24.360 all badass. 0:05:23.760 --> 0:05:27.480 So you know before the before the anti semitism he's 0:05:27.520 --> 0:05:28.080 talking about. 0:05:28.600 --> 0:05:30.680 Yes, yeah, anti semitism. 0:05:30.760 --> 0:05:30.960 Yeah. 0:05:31.040 --> 0:05:32.640 The first four I was able to put it back 0:05:32.640 --> 0:05:34.839 in myself. I'm kind of like wiggling into my shoulder. 0:05:35.160 --> 0:05:38.160 The last three I needed assistance in a very very 0:05:38.200 --> 0:05:38.960 big way. 0:05:39.560 --> 0:05:42.160 Wiggling into your shoulder. Oh man. 0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:44.880 And the last thing, I'm sorry, I don't mean to 0:05:44.880 --> 0:05:47.400 belabor this, but the first the first time that it 0:05:47.440 --> 0:05:50.600 dislocated was some traumatic event and then it just never corrected. 0:05:51.880 --> 0:05:54.599 Well, the first time it dislocated, it popped right back in. 0:05:54.680 --> 0:05:56.160 That was kind of my high school days where I 0:05:56.200 --> 0:05:58.280 realized there was a problem, But it wasn't so much 0:05:58.320 --> 0:06:00.640 of a problem that the tears and all of that 0:06:00.680 --> 0:06:02.919 stuff inside, like wasn't as big of a deal for 0:06:02.960 --> 0:06:05.520 it to stay out, so it wasn't fully compromised, and 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:07.840 then it became fully compromised, and when it came out, 0:06:07.839 --> 0:06:08.320 it stayed out. 0:06:08.360 --> 0:06:09.680 So wait, does this mean no one can bet on 0:06:09.720 --> 0:06:12.239 Batilla for the Masters because he qualifies for the Masters 0:06:12.240 --> 0:06:14.120 with this win? But now, like, if you want it, 0:06:14.200 --> 0:06:16.160 let's just say if you had an inkling to bet him, 0:06:17.040 --> 0:06:20.440 And someone pointed out this morning it was a Hasselbauer 0:06:20.600 --> 0:06:22.600 who was like, if he hadn't qualified, it would have 0:06:22.600 --> 0:06:25.719 been exactly eighty eight golfers for the eighty eighth Masters, 0:06:25.800 --> 0:06:27.880 So he fucked that up. Yeah, let's just say that, 0:06:28.440 --> 0:06:30.720 what an ass. But if you if you had an 0:06:30.760 --> 0:06:32.800 inkling to bet him, now would you not because of 0:06:32.800 --> 0:06:33.400 this situation? 0:06:33.520 --> 0:06:37.320 I'll answer this one first, because I don't know about you, guys. 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:40.080 He is definitely a guy that I had circled to 0:06:40.120 --> 0:06:43.280 bet this week. Yet I mean, it's it's a major week. 0:06:43.360 --> 0:06:45.560 You can always make so many cases for so many 0:06:45.600 --> 0:06:47.920 guys that yes, Gil, that is pretty much all it 0:06:47.960 --> 0:06:49.720 took for me to cross off my list. 0:06:49.520 --> 0:06:51.479 This week, where I don't really know what his shoulder 0:06:51.520 --> 0:06:52.400 is doing. 0:06:52.480 --> 0:06:54.640 If it's in, it's out, can how easily can it 0:06:54.680 --> 0:06:57.800 pop back out again? Like see is talking about. So yeah, 0:06:57.839 --> 0:06:59.640 I did cross him off my list, Wes, Yeah, I 0:06:59.640 --> 0:07:01.520 don't know. You guys handled him. 0:07:01.880 --> 0:07:05.040 Well, yeah, go ahead, let's see. I'm sorry, go ahead. No. 0:07:05.200 --> 0:07:06.520 I was just going to say, like, I don't think 0:07:06.520 --> 0:07:08.640 it's a problem, to be honest with you, because it 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:11.480 wasn't fully compromised in the sense of it like being 0:07:11.560 --> 0:07:13.200 out for a while, that's when you really have to 0:07:13.200 --> 0:07:15.440 stabilize and you got to worry about the join and 0:07:15.440 --> 0:07:18.160 the ligaments around the join itself. The fact that he's 0:07:18.200 --> 0:07:20.040 at a stage where it's popping right back in. It's 0:07:20.040 --> 0:07:22.120 probably going to be some soreness for a couple of days, 0:07:22.200 --> 0:07:24.280 but it's actually not going to affect his golf swing 0:07:24.280 --> 0:07:26.160 at all. The fact that he had his hand up 0:07:26.200 --> 0:07:28.760 in a non golf position when he was celebrating that putt, 0:07:28.800 --> 0:07:31.240 by the way, great putt by him, But that's not 0:07:31.320 --> 0:07:34.080 a position where you're putting your shoulder in, And therefore, 0:07:34.120 --> 0:07:36.040 outside of a couple of days of soreness, I actually 0:07:36.080 --> 0:07:37.400 think he'll be fine with his swing. 0:07:38.880 --> 0:07:39.720 Same for you me. 0:07:40.080 --> 0:07:43.200 Yeah, well, yeah, I agree with in terms of the 0:07:43.720 --> 0:07:48.200 diagnosis that Si, having had this injury before, just gave there. 0:07:48.280 --> 0:07:51.000 But the one thing I will say, because as we're 0:07:51.200 --> 0:07:54.360 as we're recording this, we're now getting the pairings being 0:07:54.440 --> 0:07:57.480 released and oh yes, actually he is actually in the 0:07:57.520 --> 0:08:01.320 apt one of the afternoon groups, which I do wonder 0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:04.400 because all the top five in the betting, by the way, 0:08:04.400 --> 0:08:07.520 are in the first the am wave on Thursday, and 0:08:07.720 --> 0:08:09.640 if we get weather, I think it's going to be 0:08:09.640 --> 0:08:11.760 in the afternoon. So I wonder if we're going to 0:08:11.800 --> 0:08:13.760 get a scenario like we did last year where the 0:08:13.840 --> 0:08:16.800 afternoon guys are going to have to make up to 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:20.040 get this back on time and you know, play twenty 0:08:20.120 --> 0:08:22.040 eight thirty holes in a day or. 0:08:22.000 --> 0:08:22.680 Something like that. 0:08:22.800 --> 0:08:24.880 So that's the only thing that I could see that 0:08:24.960 --> 0:08:27.640 could be a bugaboo on this injury for betf he's 0:08:27.640 --> 0:08:29.200 got to play a lot of extra golf. 0:08:29.400 --> 0:08:31.880 If you get weather in that afternoon wave Thursday. 0:08:32.040 --> 0:08:36.040 Watch this bugaboo hip hop record? Who's the artist. 0:08:35.800 --> 0:08:40.360 Wes's Destiny's Child? Of course, I think, yeah. 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:43.120 No, but they had a bugaboo too, they had I 0:08:43.160 --> 0:08:47.880 always thinking of a hip hop record, but yes, that's correct. Okay, yeah, okay, okay, 0:08:47.920 --> 0:08:49.760 So I want to seize on the weather thing momentarily, 0:08:49.760 --> 0:08:51.240 but before I do that, because there's going to be 0:08:51.800 --> 0:08:54.120 the beating the book. Audience may not be as familiar 0:08:54.880 --> 0:08:59.120 with the Long Shot Screw, but Kelly, Wes and Matt 0:08:59.160 --> 0:09:01.199 are going to do a live thing for those who 0:09:01.240 --> 0:09:03.680 happen to listen to this today. They're gonna do a 0:09:03.679 --> 0:09:07.440 live thing at eleven pm Eastern eight pm Pacific tonight, 0:09:07.480 --> 0:09:11.040 which is the Tuesday before the Masters. Don't worry West, 0:09:11.080 --> 0:09:13.400 it's not actually it's not actually live, Kelly saying, we 0:09:13.480 --> 0:09:15.680 just say it's live. By the way, I completely thought 0:09:15.679 --> 0:09:17.520 it was live, and Kelly like, burst my bubble. 0:09:17.559 --> 0:09:19.800 I wonder what Killy gill all on at numbers. We 0:09:19.880 --> 0:09:21.560 be so worried about it, Yes, acted like I had 0:09:21.600 --> 0:09:22.840 the longest day at I mean. 0:09:22.720 --> 0:09:24.760 I was so confused for a moment. And for those 0:09:24.800 --> 0:09:26.679 who were wondering, if I'm listening to this, why should 0:09:26.679 --> 0:09:28.160 I listen to that? Because you guys will go deep 0:09:28.200 --> 0:09:30.600 dive into that more than you will hear necessarily. 0:09:30.720 --> 0:09:30.880 Yeah. 0:09:30.880 --> 0:09:31.360 Absolutely. 0:09:31.400 --> 0:09:32.480 Matt Brown's picks as well. 0:09:32.559 --> 0:09:33.439 Yeah we are. 0:09:33.720 --> 0:09:35.360 I know Cia does a lot of this too, but 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:38.680 very heavy heavy data driven that we're that we will 0:09:38.760 --> 0:09:41.400 talk through that lens. That's what you'll hear a lot 0:09:41.440 --> 0:09:44.200 more on the podcast, more so than I'm guessing what 0:09:44.240 --> 0:09:47.160 you're gonna see us up with questions here for exactly, 0:09:47.200 --> 0:09:49.320 we got to leave something for you that's right, so 0:09:49.640 --> 0:09:52.080 you'll hear it much more through that lens on the podcast. 0:09:52.080 --> 0:09:53.760 I also want to say this that these are not 0:09:53.880 --> 0:09:56.040 just three I use the word Schmendricks on a numbers 0:09:56.040 --> 0:09:57.760 game this morning. These are not just three schmendricks of 0:09:57.800 --> 0:10:02.480 golf Sea and he doesn't want to be known for this. 0:10:03.520 --> 0:10:06.640 Hits a ridiculous percentage and I'm not even making this up. 0:10:06.679 --> 0:10:09.800 A first round leader bets, which is maybe the most 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:11.400 Even as I'm saying it, I'm like, this is the 0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:14.920 most ridiculous thing in the world. But it's true. He does. Wes. 0:10:16.040 --> 0:10:19.679 Uh you helped me out here, Kelly. Is there anybody 0:10:19.720 --> 0:10:23.439 who hits more outrights in anything than Wes Reynolds does 0:10:23.480 --> 0:10:23.920 in golf? 0:10:24.280 --> 0:10:26.680 No, I mean that for a comparable sports No like 0:10:26.720 --> 0:10:30.079 that is you're talking. We're talking about the two guys. 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:31.880 I mean for west Renolds. I think a lot of 0:10:31.920 --> 0:10:33.920 people have been following this stuff for years with golf. 0:10:34.360 --> 0:10:37.440 He hits outrights at higher rate than almost anybody I know. 0:10:37.480 --> 0:10:40.120 It's seeing a shot absolutely the first round. He's become 0:10:40.160 --> 0:10:42.320 the first round leader king over the past couple of years. 0:10:42.480 --> 0:10:45.400 The sea things just a comical, It's unbelievable. 0:10:45.440 --> 0:10:48.880 It is because I had, like, I had some success 0:10:48.920 --> 0:10:51.520 that I stumbled into. I think, much like CEO when 0:10:51.520 --> 0:10:54.360 we like all like kind of first round leader markets 0:10:54.400 --> 0:10:58.439 became more widely available for whatever reason, I found myself 0:10:58.800 --> 0:11:01.600 stumbling into success there. But it's like betting a first 0:11:01.679 --> 0:11:04.040 quarter of an NBA game, right, Like it's. 0:11:03.840 --> 0:11:06.079 Not really you're you're. 0:11:05.920 --> 0:11:08.199 Ideally letting your hondicap play out. 0:11:08.280 --> 0:11:10.040 By the way we're talking, like these guys aren't even here, 0:11:10.040 --> 0:11:14.560 see is like it's not no, you're right, yeah, okay. So, 0:11:14.679 --> 0:11:16.040 and I also just want to point out before we 0:11:16.080 --> 0:11:19.840 get into this particular master's that you Kelly do By 0:11:19.880 --> 0:11:22.280 the way, Kelly's a great golf handicapper in his own right, 0:11:22.320 --> 0:11:26.520 you do things by model Wes. You don't necessarily do 0:11:26.600 --> 0:11:28.760 it that way, correct, How would you characterize it. 0:11:29.040 --> 0:11:32.080 Kind of a combo platter? I'm not totally model driven. 0:11:32.160 --> 0:11:33.920 A lot of it is a lot of it is 0:11:34.000 --> 0:11:36.560 market driven as well. A lot of it is just 0:11:36.640 --> 0:11:39.040 you know, following this out the year, So it's not 0:11:39.120 --> 0:11:42.560 like a particular model. It's more like a statistical context, 0:11:42.679 --> 0:11:44.480 okay of things that I think are going to be 0:11:44.520 --> 0:11:46.200 important on week to week basis. 0:11:46.440 --> 0:11:48.680 By the way, how much like pressure do you feel 0:11:49.360 --> 0:11:51.280 because you're so good at this? Like if you have 0:11:51.400 --> 0:11:54.440 a week or two or god forbid, god forbid Wes 0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:57.280 that you go a month without hitting an outright, do 0:11:57.320 --> 0:11:59.640 you like lose your mind? Do you start to get 0:11:59.800 --> 0:12:01.720 high anxiety? Yes? 0:12:02.320 --> 0:12:05.679 Yes, as a matter of fact, because look, look I 0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:08.880 had a few week drought before I hit Jaeger in Houston, 0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:12.079 and you know, and and and because of these droughts, 0:12:12.120 --> 0:12:13.880 that's what led me a little bit more to like 0:12:13.960 --> 0:12:17.400 placement markets, you know, the top twenties and the top 0:12:17.480 --> 0:12:20.480 thirties where it's like, hey, can I still make money 0:12:21.000 --> 0:12:24.320 when I'm not hitting out in an outright wager? And 0:12:24.320 --> 0:12:26.280 and you know that that has helped me at least 0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:29.280 most weeks. But but yeah, look, you know I put 0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:32.000 a little bit probably too much pressure on myself. But 0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:34.720 you know, when you devote yourself to this, you obviously 0:12:34.800 --> 0:12:36.400 want to get out what you put into it. 0:12:36.520 --> 0:12:38.880 I love only vsent dot com slash picks page. When 0:12:38.920 --> 0:12:41.360 I'm lucky enough to be in the top three. It's 0:12:41.400 --> 0:12:45.360 like Wes Renolds, like Gil Alexander two, he went three 0:12:45.360 --> 0:12:47.560 and two the last week for you know whatever. The 0:12:47.559 --> 0:12:49.959 percentage ROI three and two right West Reynolds is in 0:12:49.960 --> 0:12:52.640 the first place. He's like one hundred and seventy eight 0:12:52.760 --> 0:12:55.439 or something like that with all his plays fires Baby, 0:12:55.559 --> 0:13:00.560 and then Sia does things by locating and dislocating. What 0:13:00.640 --> 0:13:03.000 is your what would you say is your handicapping approach? 0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:06.319 I would say it's a combo between Wes and Kelly's. 0:13:06.360 --> 0:13:08.880 Like I tend to steer away from models, but I 0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:11.280 got to admit, like the the things I'm looking at 0:13:11.400 --> 0:13:13.839 are inputs into models. I'm just looking at it more 0:13:13.880 --> 0:13:16.520 granularly hard word to say, by the way, So I'm 0:13:16.520 --> 0:13:19.439 looking at strokes gain data mostly, but I'm just looking 0:13:19.480 --> 0:13:21.600 at looking at a piece by piece because i want 0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:24.280 to see, like even the smaller sample size sizes that 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:26.440 a model might show, like round by round, tournament by 0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:29.640 tournament scoring, where whereas a model might just like you'll 0:13:29.760 --> 0:13:32.520 collate all of that stuff over whatever, however many rounds 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:34.960 you want to do it, but sixteen, twenty four, fifty whatever, 0:13:35.360 --> 0:13:37.000 I just want to look at it piece by piece. 0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:38.559 So it's kind of a long way to do it, 0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:41.040 but it's kind of using both approaches that Wes and 0:13:41.120 --> 0:13:41.600 Kelly use. 0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:44.480 Okay, so I probably should just clarify too. Matt Brown 0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:46.720 often does this. So if I'm not sitting here coding 0:13:46.800 --> 0:13:49.240 and like running all this stuff, I'm using a lot 0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:51.640 of great stat engine websites that are out there, like 0:13:51.760 --> 0:13:54.160 Fantasy National, ric, run good dot. 0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:56.040 Com, bet spurts, a lot of these guys that we've 0:13:56.080 --> 0:13:56.679 had on the shows. 0:13:56.720 --> 0:13:58.199 You mean, you're not scraping day. 0:13:58.360 --> 0:14:00.079 That might be shocking to you some of the y 0:14:00.480 --> 0:14:01.000 the audience. 0:14:01.760 --> 0:14:05.480 That's right, that's very honest of you. So eighty eighth Masters, 0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:08.240 and again we should always point out with the Masters 0:14:08.240 --> 0:14:11.160 the most predictive of golf courses from one year to 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:13.560 the next. Obviously, it's the only major that plays on 0:14:13.600 --> 0:14:16.040 the same golf course, and as we alluded to earlier, 0:14:16.120 --> 0:14:19.840 it is a smaller field than what we're normally used to. 0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:22.880 And we just mentioned eighty nine golfers here. With the 0:14:22.880 --> 0:14:27.040 pairings coming out right now, and many of those not many, 0:14:27.080 --> 0:14:30.320 but a more than negligible percentage of the eighty nine 0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:32.560 are going to be. As we like to joke every year, 0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:36.280 winners from like the Eisenhower administration, right the Larry Mises 0:14:36.360 --> 0:14:39.040 of the world and years gone by and those kind 0:14:39.080 --> 0:14:41.720 the Bernard Langers and those kind of players. So you 0:14:41.840 --> 0:14:44.560 really do have a smaller pool than normal. And let 0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:47.240 me start with what West brought up. This is always 0:14:47.240 --> 0:14:49.240 the best place to start up if you look at 0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:51.680 the weather forecast in Augusta, and we know how weather 0:14:51.720 --> 0:14:54.880 forecasts go, but right now we're seeing some rain and 0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:57.600 wind on Thursday for the first round, and some wind 0:14:57.680 --> 0:15:01.520 on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday is supposed to glorious. So 0:15:01.840 --> 0:15:04.120 it's funny how you couched it, West, because earlier on 0:15:04.120 --> 0:15:06.440 a numbers game we had Drew densic On it's also 0:15:06.800 --> 0:15:10.560 a nice golf handicapper, and he was talking about how 0:15:11.160 --> 0:15:14.480 he thought the advantage might go. Am I right about this, Kelly? 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:16.320 He did the opposite. He said the advantage might go 0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:21.960 to the afternoon Thursdays and the morning Fridays. Yeah's no correct, correct, 0:15:22.120 --> 0:15:25.200 And you off air, You're like, yeah, these guy everyone's 0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:28.080 really like has assumptions about the weather and Wes is 0:15:28.080 --> 0:15:31.760 saying the opposite now that you're sort of operating instinct, 0:15:31.800 --> 0:15:35.120 is that the folks in the afternoon on Thursday might 0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:36.000 get the worst of it. 0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:39.960 Yeah, look, it's hard to predict a weather bias. You know, 0:15:40.040 --> 0:15:41.920 that's what we try to do every year. It's seemingly 0:15:41.960 --> 0:15:45.840 for the Open Championship in July, but you know, more 0:15:45.840 --> 0:15:48.200 often than not, the wind at least is going to 0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:50.320 be more benign you would think in the morning. 0:15:50.800 --> 0:15:53.000 And that's why I think, you know, on a. 0:15:53.080 --> 0:15:55.960 Just week to week basis on the PGA Tour, the 0:15:56.000 --> 0:15:59.760 majority and CM maybe can confirm this or go a 0:15:59.760 --> 0:16:02.280 diferent way with it, but it seems like a lot 0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:05.280 of the first round leaders are in morning draws more 0:16:05.320 --> 0:16:08.280 often than not on PGA Tour events. Guys that are 0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:11.360 getting out and maybe those first ten to fifteen groups 0:16:11.800 --> 0:16:13.680 in the morning. Now, keep in mind there's only thirty 0:16:13.720 --> 0:16:16.600 pairings here at Augusta because there's only eighty nine players. 0:16:16.600 --> 0:16:19.040 There's one group that's a twosome that I think is 0:16:19.080 --> 0:16:21.760 the first out, and then you have threesomes throughout the rest. 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:23.480 So I think, like we were talking about with Patilla, 0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:25.880 he's like in the twenty second of thirty groups, so 0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:29.000 that would make him in the afternoon wave. But yeah, 0:16:29.080 --> 0:16:33.080 look last year, obviously the weather turned this topsy turvy 0:16:33.200 --> 0:16:35.840 or it looked like Group Kopka was very much the winner, 0:16:36.080 --> 0:16:38.240 and then John Rahm had to go. You know, John 0:16:38.320 --> 0:16:40.440 Rahm proved that you can come from the tough side 0:16:40.440 --> 0:16:43.040 of the draw and obviously win here. So just because 0:16:43.080 --> 0:16:44.880 you're on the bad end of the draw doesn't mean 0:16:45.280 --> 0:16:47.720 that you can't try it ultimately. 0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:50.880 Yet John Ram the defending champion Scotti Scheffler. His only 0:16:50.920 --> 0:16:55.000 major win was the year before that. All right, well, Wes, 0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:56.760 have you seen any things I know I'm asking you 0:16:56.800 --> 0:16:58.240 to do two things at once here, but have you 0:16:58.280 --> 0:17:01.520 seen anything in the pairings just on a glance that 0:17:01.680 --> 0:17:06.200 makes you lean certain directions or makes you cross out anybody? 0:17:06.960 --> 0:17:10.080 Well, the featured pairing, and it's going to be in 0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:12.920 the early wave on Thursday and then the afternoon wave 0:17:13.000 --> 0:17:17.320 on Friday. Believe they are group number twelve, and you've 0:17:17.320 --> 0:17:20.720 got three of the top four in the betting paired together. 0:17:20.880 --> 0:17:26.439 So you have Scotti Scheffler paired with Rory McElroy and 0:17:26.680 --> 0:17:30.520 Xander Schoffle. Oh, and they are paired together and The 0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:34.359 group in front of them, I believe is John Ram, 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:38.359 the defending champion, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Nick Dunlap, who of 0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:40.960 course was the amateur that won the American Express that 0:17:41.040 --> 0:17:42.359 has since turned professional. 0:17:43.560 --> 0:17:47.359 Okay, so what is that? Does that do anything for 0:17:47.400 --> 0:17:49.200 you from a handicapping staff or not? Really? 0:17:49.280 --> 0:17:52.840