Speaker 1: Tuesday morning, April ninth, twenty twenty four. It is the
Speaker 1: Beating the Book Podcast, the eighty eighth Masters tradition, unlike
Speaker 1: any other from Augusta, first major of the year, as
Speaker 1: always Skill Alexander joined by a steamed panel of golf
Speaker 1: experts for the second straight year. Kelly, you might have
Speaker 1: been on for three years, but for the second straight
Speaker 1: year the duo here.
Speaker 2: That's a great question.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we were going through like the history of Beating
Speaker 1: the Book Masters pod.
Speaker 2: This this is only my second year on.
Speaker 1: Okay, so you and West both to two thirds of
Speaker 1: the long shots caring by long shots, I mean there
Speaker 1: is a podcast, a dedicated golf podcast that Vison has
Speaker 1: called long Shots, a colloquial colloquially called it's called long shots.
Speaker 1: Is That's how Matt Brown used to do the promo.
Speaker 1: Matt Brown too much of a divad to be on
Speaker 1: the show. It's not true. He's going to Augusta, so
Speaker 1: we give him an excuse. But the other two members
Speaker 1: for a second straight year, the great Wes Reynolds everybody
Speaker 1: co host of Vison tonight doing Wes, thanks for doing
Speaker 1: this again.
Speaker 3: I'm well, Gil, thanks for having me and.
Speaker 1: Congratulations on the future Jaeger fifty to one two weeks ago.
Speaker 1: Were you on Batilla?
Speaker 4: I was not just for a placement market, but he
Speaker 4: was very well tipped in the market and was able
Speaker 4: to get at home in that playoff. Now, now, when
Speaker 4: he heard his shoulder though in the playoff, all I
Speaker 4: was like.
Speaker 3: Man, this is like very tennis. This is exactly hard. Gil.
Speaker 4: I was like, man, this is like Ropp and Nadal
Speaker 4: going to the trainer and like the fourpe said at
Speaker 4: Roland Garros or something. But nevertheless, he got it home
Speaker 4: after he got that shoulder taped.
Speaker 1: What Wes is referring to. For those who don't know,
Speaker 1: ak Shee Batilla, who won the Valero Open this past week,
Speaker 1: had a six shot lead going into the back nine,
Speaker 1: and then Denny McCarthy went ballistic, birdied ten, part eleven
Speaker 1: and then birdied twelve, thirteen, fourteen, fifty, sixteen, seventeen, eighteen,
Speaker 1: and it required Akha Batilla to have a tournament tying
Speaker 1: putt on eighteen. It looked like he was going to
Speaker 1: lose it in regulation, if you will, he sinks the
Speaker 1: putt and in celebration it was It was a pretty
Speaker 1: tough putt too. It was not a short butt. In celebration,
Speaker 1: he pumps his left arm and Batilla what we say, Wes,
Speaker 1: he weighs what ninety seven ninety eight pounds roughly?
Speaker 4: Yeah, he does this, big tall guy, big tall, skinny guy.
Speaker 3: It was very It was very grammatica of uh.
Speaker 1: Very grammatica. That's why we have Wes on the show
Speaker 1: for reverences like that. Correct, was that Martin? Just to
Speaker 1: get my grammatica's correct.
Speaker 4: I believe it was Martine Grammatica. Okay, jumped on in
Speaker 4: the field goal celebration and then stumbled to the ground
Speaker 4: after that.
Speaker 1: That's the right, one of the great moments in NFL
Speaker 1: celebration history. So anyway, he dis he What we learn
Speaker 1: on the playoff hole because they go back and play
Speaker 1: eighteen again is that he's called for a trainer, and
Speaker 1: Wes is exactly right. This is like every tennis player
Speaker 1: who falls behind, Oh my leg I need a trainer,
Speaker 1: just trying to like really like stay time. Sometimes it's legit,
Speaker 1: and in Batia's case, it was legit, and the announcers
Speaker 1: were and I was texting Kelly. Kelly was on the
Speaker 1: air because he couldn't really get it because he was
Speaker 1: on the air. I'm texting Kelly. I'm like, the announcers
Speaker 1: are speculating that he dislo that he heard his shoulder,
Speaker 1: first heard his shoulder on the celebration, and then I
Speaker 1: was like, oh my god, it's confirmed. He partially dislocated
Speaker 1: his shoulder. But it didn't matter in the end because
Speaker 1: he was still able to hit an approach shot or
Speaker 1: the shot before the approach shot. And then McCarthy hid
Speaker 1: in the creek anyway, and then I'm sure his elbow
Speaker 1: his shoulder started feeling much better. It's tough to put
Speaker 1: from the creek, Denny, Yeah, it is, Wes. Let me
Speaker 1: just before, by the way, that's the voice of Kelly Bidlin.
Speaker 1: I shouldn't assume that this audience knows who you are.
Speaker 1: You're like, yeap and like it's the Numbers Games. That's
Speaker 1: Kelly Biblin, along with Wes Reynolds two thirds of the
Speaker 1: long Shots crew. And before I asked Wes this question,
Speaker 1: the third member of the panel is Sia Najade, who
Speaker 1: we have on the radio side all the time. Sia
Speaker 1: is a host and analyst at sports Line and the
Speaker 1: Monumental Sports Network in Good Old DC, in the dmv
Speaker 1: uh Sea comes to us. You won't be able to
Speaker 1: see this, but he has a uh he has a
Speaker 1: one of the all time very good Santana Moss photo
Speaker 1: behind him where he's thrown up the twenty one for
Speaker 1: Sean Taylor Jolways love Sea. Good morning, Thank you for
Speaker 1: doing this man.
Speaker 5: Good morning, listen.
Speaker 6: I wish I was on the right side of Batilla
Speaker 6: for the outright, but I had him for a first
Speaker 6: round leader at sixty five to one. The reason I
Speaker 6: bring that up is because it's I have a lot
Speaker 6: in common with Akhabt. You guys know, I've told this story.
Speaker 6: I've dislocated my shoulders seven times, like fully dislocated before
Speaker 6: before the first yeah, before the first of seven playing basketball,
Speaker 6: mostly before the first of seven. It would it would
Speaker 6: go like Oxhays went, where it would pop out but
Speaker 6: then pop right back in and basically be okay outside
Speaker 6: of some soreness. So uh, anyway, I could very much
Speaker 6: relate to that. It was painful for me to watch
Speaker 6: after I realized what had happened when he was pumping
Speaker 6: his fist, But yeah, that brought back some gruesome memories
Speaker 6: for sure.
Speaker 1: Seven times.
Speaker 2: Is it just like it.
Speaker 1: It's gonna happen for the rest of your life, that
Speaker 1: it's just going to pop out now.
Speaker 5: When it's in compromising positions.
Speaker 6: Yes, it's usually like you know, playing basketball the football.
Speaker 6: I put it in an awkward spot, weight gets pushed
Speaker 6: against it, it comes out. It's very hard to put
Speaker 6: it back out.
Speaker 1: I wasn't gonna ask about the compromise.
Speaker 2: Now, are you like falling rigs at this point?
Speaker 7: See, I like you against the wall like Mel Gibson style,
Speaker 7: all badass.
Speaker 1: So you know before the before the anti semitism he's
Speaker 1: talking about.
Speaker 5: Yes, yeah, anti semitism.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 6: The first four I was able to put it back
Speaker 6: in myself. I'm kind of like wiggling into my shoulder.
Speaker 6: The last three I needed assistance in a very very
Speaker 6: big way.
Speaker 2: Wiggling into your shoulder. Oh man.
Speaker 1: And the last thing, I'm sorry, I don't mean to
Speaker 1: belabor this, but the first the first time that it
Speaker 1: dislocated was some traumatic event and then it just never corrected.
Speaker 6: Well, the first time it dislocated, it popped right back in.
Speaker 6: That was kind of my high school days where I
Speaker 6: realized there was a problem, But it wasn't so much
Speaker 6: of a problem that the tears and all of that
Speaker 6: stuff inside, like wasn't as big of a deal for
Speaker 6: it to stay out, so it wasn't fully compromised, and
Speaker 6: then it became fully compromised, and when it came out,
Speaker 6: it stayed out.
Speaker 1: So wait, does this mean no one can bet on
Speaker 1: Batilla for the Masters because he qualifies for the Masters
Speaker 1: with this win? But now, like, if you want it,
Speaker 1: let's just say if you had an inkling to bet him,
Speaker 1: And someone pointed out this morning it was a Hasselbauer
Speaker 1: who was like, if he hadn't qualified, it would have
Speaker 1: been exactly eighty eight golfers for the eighty eighth Masters,
Speaker 1: So he fucked that up. Yeah, let's just say that,
Speaker 1: what an ass. But if you if you had an
Speaker 1: inkling to bet him, now would you not because of
Speaker 1: this situation?
Speaker 7: I'll answer this one first, because I don't know about you, guys.
Speaker 7: He is definitely a guy that I had circled to
Speaker 7: bet this week. Yet I mean, it's it's a major week.
Speaker 7: You can always make so many cases for so many
Speaker 7: guys that yes, Gil, that is pretty much all it
Speaker 7: took for me to cross off my list.
Speaker 2: This week, where I don't really know what his shoulder
Speaker 2: is doing.
Speaker 7: If it's in, it's out, can how easily can it
Speaker 7: pop back out again? Like see is talking about. So yeah,
Speaker 7: I did cross him off my list, Wes, Yeah, I
Speaker 7: don't know. You guys handled him.
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, go ahead, let's see. I'm sorry, go ahead. No.
Speaker 6: I was just going to say, like, I don't think
Speaker 6: it's a problem, to be honest with you, because it
Speaker 6: wasn't fully compromised in the sense of it like being
Speaker 6: out for a while, that's when you really have to
Speaker 6: stabilize and you got to worry about the join and
Speaker 6: the ligaments around the join itself. The fact that he's
Speaker 6: at a stage where it's popping right back in. It's
Speaker 6: probably going to be some soreness for a couple of days,
Speaker 6: but it's actually not going to affect his golf swing
Speaker 6: at all. The fact that he had his hand up
Speaker 6: in a non golf position when he was celebrating that putt,
Speaker 6: by the way, great putt by him, But that's not
Speaker 6: a position where you're putting your shoulder in, And therefore,
Speaker 6: outside of a couple of days of soreness, I actually
Speaker 6: think he'll be fine with his swing.
Speaker 1: Same for you me.
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, yeah, I agree with in terms of the
Speaker 4: diagnosis that Si, having had this injury before, just gave there.
Speaker 4: But the one thing I will say, because as we're
Speaker 4: as we're recording this, we're now getting the pairings being
Speaker 4: released and oh yes, actually he is actually in the
Speaker 4: apt one of the afternoon groups, which I do wonder
Speaker 4: because all the top five in the betting, by the way,
Speaker 4: are in the first the am wave on Thursday, and
Speaker 4: if we get weather, I think it's going to be
Speaker 4: in the afternoon. So I wonder if we're going to
Speaker 4: get a scenario like we did last year where the
Speaker 4: afternoon guys are going to have to make up to
Speaker 4: get this back on time and you know, play twenty
Speaker 4: eight thirty holes in a day or.
Speaker 3: Something like that.
Speaker 4: So that's the only thing that I could see that
Speaker 4: could be a bugaboo on this injury for betf he's
Speaker 4: got to play a lot of extra golf.
Speaker 3: If you get weather in that afternoon wave Thursday.
Speaker 1: Watch this bugaboo hip hop record? Who's the artist.
Speaker 3: Wes's Destiny's Child? Of course, I think, yeah.
Speaker 1: No, but they had a bugaboo too, they had I
Speaker 1: always thinking of a hip hop record, but yes, that's correct. Okay, yeah, okay, okay,
Speaker 1: So I want to seize on the weather thing momentarily,
Speaker 1: but before I do that, because there's going to be
Speaker 1: the beating the book. Audience may not be as familiar
Speaker 1: with the Long Shot Screw, but Kelly, Wes and Matt
Speaker 1: are going to do a live thing for those who
Speaker 1: happen to listen to this today. They're gonna do a
Speaker 1: live thing at eleven pm Eastern eight pm Pacific tonight,
Speaker 1: which is the Tuesday before the Masters. Don't worry West,
Speaker 1: it's not actually it's not actually live, Kelly saying, we
Speaker 1: just say it's live. By the way, I completely thought
Speaker 1: it was live, and Kelly like, burst my bubble.
Speaker 7: I wonder what Killy gill all on at numbers. We
Speaker 7: be so worried about it, Yes, acted like I had
Speaker 7: the longest day at I mean.
Speaker 1: I was so confused for a moment. And for those
Speaker 1: who were wondering, if I'm listening to this, why should
Speaker 1: I listen to that? Because you guys will go deep
Speaker 1: dive into that more than you will hear necessarily.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Absolutely.
Speaker 1: Matt Brown's picks as well.
Speaker 2: Yeah we are.
Speaker 7: I know Cia does a lot of this too, but
Speaker 7: very heavy heavy data driven that we're that we will
Speaker 7: talk through that lens. That's what you'll hear a lot
Speaker 7: more on the podcast, more so than I'm guessing what
Speaker 7: you're gonna see us up with questions here for exactly,
Speaker 7: we got to leave something for you that's right, so
Speaker 7: you'll hear it much more through that lens on the podcast.
Speaker 1: I also want to say this that these are not
Speaker 1: just three I use the word Schmendricks on a numbers
Speaker 1: game this morning. These are not just three schmendricks of
Speaker 1: golf Sea and he doesn't want to be known for this.
Speaker 1: Hits a ridiculous percentage and I'm not even making this up.
Speaker 1: A first round leader bets, which is maybe the most
Speaker 1: Even as I'm saying it, I'm like, this is the
Speaker 1: most ridiculous thing in the world. But it's true. He does. Wes.
Speaker 1: Uh you helped me out here, Kelly. Is there anybody
Speaker 1: who hits more outrights in anything than Wes Reynolds does
Speaker 1: in golf?
Speaker 7: No, I mean that for a comparable sports No like
Speaker 7: that is you're talking. We're talking about the two guys.
Speaker 7: I mean for west Renolds. I think a lot of
Speaker 7: people have been following this stuff for years with golf.
Speaker 7: He hits outrights at higher rate than almost anybody I know.
Speaker 7: It's seeing a shot absolutely the first round. He's become
Speaker 7: the first round leader king over the past couple of years.
Speaker 1: The sea things just a comical, It's unbelievable.
Speaker 7: It is because I had, like, I had some success
Speaker 7: that I stumbled into. I think, much like CEO when
Speaker 7: we like all like kind of first round leader markets
Speaker 7: became more widely available for whatever reason, I found myself
Speaker 7: stumbling into success there. But it's like betting a first
Speaker 7: quarter of an NBA game, right, Like it's.
Speaker 1: Not really you're you're.
Speaker 2: Ideally letting your hondicap play out.
Speaker 1: By the way we're talking, like these guys aren't even here,
Speaker 1: see is like it's not no, you're right, yeah, okay. So,
Speaker 1: and I also just want to point out before we
Speaker 1: get into this particular master's that you Kelly do By
Speaker 1: the way, Kelly's a great golf handicapper in his own right,
Speaker 1: you do things by model Wes. You don't necessarily do
Speaker 1: it that way, correct, How would you characterize it.
Speaker 4: Kind of a combo platter? I'm not totally model driven.
Speaker 4: A lot of it is a lot of it is
Speaker 4: market driven as well. A lot of it is just
Speaker 4: you know, following this out the year, So it's not
Speaker 4: like a particular model. It's more like a statistical context,
Speaker 4: okay of things that I think are going to be
Speaker 4: important on week to week basis.
Speaker 1: By the way, how much like pressure do you feel
Speaker 1: because you're so good at this? Like if you have
Speaker 1: a week or two or god forbid, god forbid Wes
Speaker 1: that you go a month without hitting an outright, do
Speaker 1: you like lose your mind? Do you start to get
Speaker 1: high anxiety? Yes?
Speaker 4: Yes, as a matter of fact, because look, look I
Speaker 4: had a few week drought before I hit Jaeger in Houston,
Speaker 4: and you know, and and and because of these droughts,
Speaker 4: that's what led me a little bit more to like
Speaker 4: placement markets, you know, the top twenties and the top
Speaker 4: thirties where it's like, hey, can I still make money
Speaker 4: when I'm not hitting out in an outright wager? And
Speaker 4: and you know that that has helped me at least
Speaker 4: most weeks. But but yeah, look, you know I put
Speaker 4: a little bit probably too much pressure on myself. But
Speaker 4: you know, when you devote yourself to this, you obviously
Speaker 4: want to get out what you put into it.
Speaker 1: I love only vsent dot com slash picks page. When
Speaker 1: I'm lucky enough to be in the top three. It's
Speaker 1: like Wes Renolds, like Gil Alexander two, he went three
Speaker 1: and two the last week for you know whatever. The
Speaker 1: percentage ROI three and two right West Reynolds is in
Speaker 1: the first place. He's like one hundred and seventy eight
Speaker 1: or something like that with all his plays fires Baby,
Speaker 1: and then Sia does things by locating and dislocating. What
Speaker 1: is your what would you say is your handicapping approach?
Speaker 6: I would say it's a combo between Wes and Kelly's.
Speaker 6: Like I tend to steer away from models, but I
Speaker 6: got to admit, like the the things I'm looking at
Speaker 6: are inputs into models. I'm just looking at it more
Speaker 6: granularly hard word to say, by the way, So I'm
Speaker 6: looking at strokes gain data mostly, but I'm just looking
Speaker 6: at looking at a piece by piece because i want
Speaker 6: to see, like even the smaller sample size sizes that
Speaker 6: a model might show, like round by round, tournament by
Speaker 6: tournament scoring, where whereas a model might just like you'll
Speaker 6: collate all of that stuff over whatever, however many rounds
Speaker 6: you want to do it, but sixteen, twenty four, fifty whatever,
Speaker 6: I just want to look at it piece by piece.
Speaker 6: So it's kind of a long way to do it,
Speaker 6: but it's kind of using both approaches that Wes and
Speaker 6: Kelly use.
Speaker 7: Okay, so I probably should just clarify too. Matt Brown
Speaker 7: often does this. So if I'm not sitting here coding
Speaker 7: and like running all this stuff, I'm using a lot
Speaker 7: of great stat engine websites that are out there, like
Speaker 7: Fantasy National, ric, run good dot.
Speaker 2: Com, bet spurts, a lot of these guys that we've
Speaker 2: had on the shows.
Speaker 1: You mean, you're not scraping day.
Speaker 2: That might be shocking to you some of the y
Speaker 2: the audience.
Speaker 1: That's right, that's very honest of you. So eighty eighth Masters,
Speaker 1: and again we should always point out with the Masters
Speaker 1: the most predictive of golf courses from one year to
Speaker 1: the next. Obviously, it's the only major that plays on
Speaker 1: the same golf course, and as we alluded to earlier,
Speaker 1: it is a smaller field than what we're normally used to.
Speaker 1: And we just mentioned eighty nine golfers here. With the
Speaker 1: pairings coming out right now, and many of those not many,
Speaker 1: but a more than negligible percentage of the eighty nine
Speaker 1: are going to be. As we like to joke every year,
Speaker 1: winners from like the Eisenhower administration, right the Larry Mises
Speaker 1: of the world and years gone by and those kind
Speaker 1: the Bernard Langers and those kind of players. So you
Speaker 1: really do have a smaller pool than normal. And let
Speaker 1: me start with what West brought up. This is always
Speaker 1: the best place to start up if you look at
Speaker 1: the weather forecast in Augusta, and we know how weather
Speaker 1: forecasts go, but right now we're seeing some rain and
Speaker 1: wind on Thursday for the first round, and some wind
Speaker 1: on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday is supposed to glorious. So
Speaker 1: it's funny how you couched it, West, because earlier on
Speaker 1: a numbers game we had Drew densic On it's also
Speaker 1: a nice golf handicapper, and he was talking about how
Speaker 1: he thought the advantage might go. Am I right about this, Kelly?
Speaker 1: He did the opposite. He said the advantage might go
Speaker 1: to the afternoon Thursdays and the morning Fridays. Yeah's no correct, correct,
Speaker 1: And you off air, You're like, yeah, these guy everyone's
Speaker 1: really like has assumptions about the weather and Wes is
Speaker 1: saying the opposite now that you're sort of operating instinct,
Speaker 1: is that the folks in the afternoon on Thursday might
Speaker 1: get the worst of it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, look, it's hard to predict a weather bias. You know,
Speaker 4: that's what we try to do every year. It's seemingly
Speaker 4: for the Open Championship in July, but you know, more
Speaker 4: often than not, the wind at least is going to
Speaker 4: be more benign you would think in the morning.
Speaker 3: And that's why I think, you know, on a.
Speaker 4: Just week to week basis on the PGA Tour, the
Speaker 4: majority and CM maybe can confirm this or go a
Speaker 4: diferent way with it, but it seems like a lot
Speaker 4: of the first round leaders are in morning draws more
Speaker 4: often than not on PGA Tour events. Guys that are
Speaker 4: getting out and maybe those first ten to fifteen groups
Speaker 4: in the morning. Now, keep in mind there's only thirty
Speaker 4: pairings here at Augusta because there's only eighty nine players.
Speaker 4: There's one group that's a twosome that I think is
Speaker 4: the first out, and then you have threesomes throughout the rest.
Speaker 4: So I think, like we were talking about with Patilla,
Speaker 4: he's like in the twenty second of thirty groups, so
Speaker 4: that would make him in the afternoon wave. But yeah,
Speaker 4: look last year, obviously the weather turned this topsy turvy
Speaker 4: or it looked like Group Kopka was very much the winner,
Speaker 4: and then John Rahm had to go. You know, John
Speaker 4: Rahm proved that you can come from the tough side
Speaker 4: of the draw and obviously win here. So just because
Speaker 4: you're on the bad end of the draw doesn't mean
Speaker 4: that you can't try it ultimately.
Speaker 1: Yet John Ram the defending champion Scotti Scheffler. His only
Speaker 1: major win was the year before that. All right, well, Wes,
Speaker 1: have you seen any things I know I'm asking you
Speaker 1: to do two things at once here, but have you
Speaker 1: seen anything in the pairings just on a glance that
Speaker 1: makes you lean certain directions or makes you cross out anybody?
Speaker 4: Well, the featured pairing, and it's going to be in
Speaker 4: the early wave on Thursday and then the afternoon wave
Speaker 4: on Friday. Believe they are group number twelve, and you've
Speaker 4: got three of the top four in the betting paired together.
Speaker 4: So you have Scotti Scheffler paired with Rory McElroy and
Speaker 4: Xander Schoffle. Oh, and they are paired together and The
Speaker 4: group in front of them, I believe is John Ram,
Speaker 4: the defending champion, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Nick Dunlap, who of
Speaker 4: course was the amateur that won the American Express that
Speaker 4: has since turned professional.
Speaker 1: Okay, so what is that? Does that do anything for
Speaker 1: you from a handicapping staff or not? Really?
Speaker 4: You know, it doesn't change it as much because look,
Speaker 4: and Rory and Xander two that I do like this week,
Speaker 4: at least on the.
Speaker 3: Short end of the board. But look, you're.
Speaker 4: Gonna have to be paired and go against great players
Speaker 4: if you want to do great things at Augustus, So
Speaker 4: I don't think you can be intimidated by that. Now,
Speaker 4: I was mainly looking at okay, are some of these
Speaker 4: guys going to be paired with Tiger? And that's where
Speaker 4: it would have been a little bit of a concern
Speaker 4: with me if they were gonna be paired with Tiger,
Speaker 4: because look, that's gonna be obviously a big story. Even
Speaker 4: though he's one hundred and fifty to one on the
Speaker 4: odds board. Is is he going to be able to
Speaker 4: make it? Is he gonna be able to make the cut?
Speaker 4: Is what is the physical toll going to be on him?
Speaker 4: Because last year, I thought the physical toll was at
Speaker 4: least a little bit easier through the first two rounds,
Speaker 4: simply because Louis Houstazen withdrew from that group. So keep
Speaker 4: in mind he played in a twosome with Woke Neeman,
Speaker 4: so that's a little bit easier than having to stop
Speaker 4: and start with three players in the group. And just
Speaker 4: the walk I think kind of got to him and
Speaker 4: he made the cut on the number and then withdrew
Speaker 4: over the weekend. So I wanted to make sure maybe
Speaker 4: some of my guys were not paired with Tiger, because
Speaker 4: if they see him struggling, it may weigh on them
Speaker 4: a little bit, you know, to see if he's playing
Speaker 4: bad and really struggling physically, especially the ones that are
Speaker 4: like really close to him, like Justin Thomas and Jordan Speed,
Speaker 4: but neither were paired with Tiger. As I'm actually scrolling
Speaker 4: Jason Mary, Yeah, I believe, And I think is that
Speaker 4: a late.
Speaker 3: Perry and I believe?
Speaker 2: Yeah, one twenty four.
Speaker 1: Okay, by the way, you see this prop Micholson versus
Speaker 1: Tiger that some that some shops had where it was
Speaker 1: like really tightly lined, and now I think Michelson's minus
Speaker 1: one forty. Phil Mickelson, who, for those who forget finished
Speaker 1: with a flourish last year, shot a sixty five on
Speaker 1: the final round and was he tied for second last
Speaker 1: year in the end?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 1: Behind wrong. Yeah that's a curious line, don't you think.
Speaker 3: I'm not really surprised.
Speaker 4: We had somebody actually on Matt Humans and Ice program
Speaker 4: last night, Vson, and I said, I really like Phil
Speaker 4: over Tiger here, because Phil, even though he's not really
Speaker 4: in contention on a week to week basis on Live
Speaker 4: and it's fifty four holes, he still at least his
Speaker 4: com playing competitive golf Tiger Woods, by the way, has
Speaker 4: not finished four rounds in an official event I'm not
Speaker 4: including the Hero Rule Challenge. Has not finished an event
Speaker 4: where he's played all four rounds since the twenty twenty
Speaker 4: three Genesis Invitational. So it's been over a year since
Speaker 4: this guy has played four rounds in tournament play.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, that's what I mean. Maybe I wasn't clarifying.
Speaker 1: I wasn't clear. I couldn't believe it was so short,
Speaker 1: and minus one forty seems short to me.
Speaker 4: Still for Micky, it was like it was like minus
Speaker 4: one fifteen at bet mgm Over.
Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I saw one that were even tighter.
Speaker 7: I mean I would be leaning Phill. You're not rushing
Speaker 7: to be running out to bet though, I would not
Speaker 7: be betting Tiger or Phil this week. All right, well,
Speaker 7: let's start out with Let's start out with some outrights.
Speaker 7: Sia has not a heart out but a heart ish out,
Speaker 7: So let's just let's do outrights first, and then we'll
Speaker 7: sort of throw at see his way. But Kelly, right now,
Speaker 7: forty eight hours before.
Speaker 1: The tournament, the tournament is who he use? It's the totement. Gil.
Speaker 1: We don't like your con around here. Uh what do
Speaker 1: you have in pocket as an outright? And then what
Speaker 1: are you thinking about?
Speaker 7: I think my outrights are settled. I think my outright
Speaker 7: card is complete. There are definitely some bets I still
Speaker 7: have to add as Vegas is taking its time to
Speaker 7: post some things here in town. So the outrights are
Speaker 7: about the only thing that is settled, I would say
Speaker 7: for me right now, I have three that I made
Speaker 7: over the past couple months. I have three that I've
Speaker 7: made this week justin Thomas Hideki Matziyama, will zalatoris I
Speaker 7: bet in the mid thirties over the past couple months.
Speaker 7: I absolutely love Adeci this week, so much more that
Speaker 7: I had it back on to him at a shorter number.
Speaker 7: He might be my favorite. He is my favorite play
Speaker 7: this week, no matter how you're playing him. Hideki Matziyama
Speaker 7: is my favorite play this week. JT and Zalaturus had
Speaker 7: some great stretches earlier or earlier in the season. Their
Speaker 7: past couple events have both been a little mid not
Speaker 7: so great. JT obviously the change a caddy with.
Speaker 1: Does that matter to you, by the way, so close
Speaker 1: to the event.
Speaker 7: Because it's not just any bones it does, see it, Wes.
Speaker 7: I don't know how you guys feel about this with JT.
Speaker 7: In the amount of experience he has at Augusta, I'm
Speaker 7: not worried about it as much, but I don't.
Speaker 2: Know how you guys look at that.
Speaker 6: I just think it's a sign that he's flailing more
Speaker 6: than anything else. The timing of it just seems very
Speaker 6: curious with a very respected guy on the back, so
Speaker 6: it doesn't it doesn't inspire much confidence, let's put it
Speaker 6: that way.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, and with me. Look, Matt Minster is a
Speaker 4: really good caddy. He was with Patrick Cantley for several
Speaker 4: years and they had some success together, so I'm not
Speaker 4: worried about the quality of service he's going to get
Speaker 4: on the bag, but it does beg the question, like
Speaker 4: Sea was saying, like, because I feel like Justin Thomas
Speaker 4: has played much better this year than he had last
Speaker 4: year where he was totally lost and missing cuts badly,
Speaker 4: but he's still kind of searching for something and that
Speaker 4: gets in your head a little bit. And he hasn't
Speaker 4: won since that PGA Championship at Southern Hills two years ago,
Speaker 4: so he's.
Speaker 3: Certainly is question it.
Speaker 4: But I think he is in better like pure playing
Speaker 4: for him, just watching him than he was this time last.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I agree with Wes. That's kind of why I
Speaker 7: put the bet in it for the first place. I
Speaker 7: think the consistency you're getting out of Zalatorus and JT
Speaker 7: right now though, is a little shaky. So I didn't
Speaker 7: go back in on those guys in any other markets
Speaker 7: hit DECKI I did add the other outrights that I
Speaker 7: did bet Wyndham Clark debutant tebut debutant, I did bet
Speaker 7: him at thirty five to one, A little bit of
Speaker 7: that I bet him in the top debutant market too.
Speaker 7: I mean we'll hit on that, we get to other bets.
Speaker 7: I did add a small outright bet on him though,
Speaker 7: just because this mark the number I found thirty five
Speaker 7: to one. He had been getting kept getting chopped down,
Speaker 7: chopped down. Think I think he's mainly around twenty five
Speaker 7: twenty eight to one in that range right now. So
Speaker 7: that was part of the part of a number play.
Speaker 7: And then this would be a I know he's on
Speaker 7: CEA his card as well. Shane Lowry I do have
Speaker 7: as an outright is my long bomb, my one long
Speaker 7: kind of outright here for this tournament. Lowry was incredible
Speaker 7: in Florida, has put together some great results. If we're
Speaker 7: gonna talk about rain, we know this guy can play
Speaker 7: in the rain. We've seen that plenty of times before,
Speaker 7: done it at a very high level. So Shane Lowry
Speaker 7: definitely is kind of the one long shot.
Speaker 2: I would say that I do have a lot of
Speaker 2: interest in this week.
Speaker 1: Shane Lowry, who's top finish here was tie for third
Speaker 1: a couple of years ago at the Masters. Obviously the
Speaker 1: Open Championship his one major win, by the way, Dave Tindall,
Speaker 1: for those who are golf hardos who are familiar with
Speaker 1: Dave Tindall across the Pond. He writes for Betfair. He
Speaker 1: does his Master's formula every year. We just had him
Speaker 1: on a numbers game where he has criteria for the
Speaker 1: last ten Masters winners and he winnows it down on
Speaker 1: a point system to who actually has the most points.
Speaker 1: First time he's ever had a tie at the top,
Speaker 1: and it is hit, Decky and Rory tied as his
Speaker 1: potential Masters winners per his formula. By the way, he
Speaker 1: hit the runners up the last two years, so he
Speaker 1: didn't get that champ, but he got the number two spot. Wes.
Speaker 1: I heard you mentioned Xander earlier, so I'm very excited
Speaker 1: to hear what you're about to say your outrights.
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, and Xander is on my card if you
Speaker 4: really look, look, Scotty Scheffler has been, you know, the
Speaker 4: man among mortals. I guess if you will, statistically not
Speaker 4: just winning two events back to back at bay Hill
Speaker 4: and at the Players, first guy to ever defend at
Speaker 4: the Players in that event's history, but the guy right
Speaker 4: behind him on a lot of these categories is Xander Schoffle,
Speaker 4: and I have him int a little bit of a
Speaker 4: better number. I think sixteen to one might be the
Speaker 4: best you can get out there right now. But Xander
Speaker 4: right now second total strokes gain top twenty and off
Speaker 4: the tee approach around the green a little.
Speaker 3: Bit down the board.
Speaker 4: Putting, he's eighty f where a Scheffler I think is
Speaker 4: around one hundred mark. But Xander was fifth on tour
Speaker 4: in the same category in putting last year, so it
Speaker 4: seems like it can heat up at any moment. Xander
Speaker 4: actually has the longest active consecutive cut strikes made on
Speaker 4: the PGA Tour at forty two. He's nine ahead of
Speaker 4: Scheffler and second at thirty three. Last cut was actually
Speaker 4: at the Masters here two years ago, but he was
Speaker 4: T three and twenty twenty one. That was the year
Speaker 4: Matsuyama one was T two and twenty nineteen here at Augusta.
Speaker 4: I think he's been the second best player on the
Speaker 4: PGA Tour this season. He's got six top tens. You know,
Speaker 4: it's kind of like, maybe I'm ready to get hurt
Speaker 4: again with this guy, but it's long past time for
Speaker 4: this guy to be second best. You know, he's always
Speaker 4: kind of right there. I had him at the Players
Speaker 4: and I felt.
Speaker 3: Like man this is the time he's gonna win.
Speaker 4: A really really big one here and just got passed
Speaker 4: by Scotti Scheffler and ends up T two with Clark
Speaker 4: and Harmon. So you know, Xanderschaffle was a guy. The
Speaker 4: number is short, but I think it's short for a reason.
Speaker 1: You're the reason I sees on that is for obviously
Speaker 1: for the obvious reasons, because he has burned probably more
Speaker 1: golf betters who had him in outrights than anyone that
Speaker 1: I can think of over time. But you're not the
Speaker 1: only one to anecdotally anyway that seems to have landed
Speaker 1: on him for this that are willing to go back
Speaker 1: with him. So I thought that, I think that's interesting.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, and you know there's on the shorter end Xander.
Speaker 4: And then I did also play Rory speaking of getting
Speaker 4: hurt again, if you've been betting him at the Masters,
Speaker 4: you've been getting hurt the last ten years as he's
Speaker 4: trying to finish this Grand Slam. But I liked what
Speaker 4: I saw at the Valero last week. One point eight
Speaker 4: to eight strokes gain approach per round. That's the best
Speaker 4: that he had done, I believe since the Canadian Open
Speaker 4: two years ago, when he won because it came out
Speaker 4: that he's been out to Vegas a few times working
Speaker 4: with Butch Harmon, and you know, maybe Butch is a
Speaker 4: good elixir.
Speaker 3: At least in a short term.
Speaker 4: So he's trying things, and he's off the PGA Tour
Speaker 4: policy board, resigned back in December. Of course, he's been
Speaker 4: the focal point of the PGA Tour versus Live divide,
Speaker 4: I think as much as any other player, and I
Speaker 4: think he kind of just wants to put that on
Speaker 4: the back burner. It's like, man, I need to win
Speaker 4: this thing. This is the last thing I have to
Speaker 4: really accomplished as an individual player. So Roy McElroy, I
Speaker 4: did have a little bit at thirteen, jakeen Neieman, I'd
Speaker 4: still maybe play smaller at thirty to one. I got
Speaker 4: fifty to one actually when he won the live event
Speaker 4: Jetta last month. But this guy, you look at the
Speaker 4: form on this guy. This guy has been terrific for
Speaker 4: about the last five or six months really worldwide. He's
Speaker 4: already won two live events. He's trying to get his
Speaker 4: world ranking up because he mentioned after Mayacoba, hey I'm
Speaker 4: not in the majors. He's ninety third in the world,
Speaker 4: and this is a guy it's probably a top fifteen
Speaker 4: or twenty player in the world if we're really, you know,
Speaker 4: looking at it realistically.
Speaker 3: But he's got to.
Speaker 4: Move that world ranking up just to get into the
Speaker 4: US Open, just to get into the PGA in the
Speaker 4: Open Championship. So this is an opportunity he's got to go,
Speaker 4: you know where. Not if he doesn't win the thing,
Speaker 4: he at least finishes like top three or four.
Speaker 3: So juaque neieman.
Speaker 4: I played I would play at thirty a couple of
Speaker 4: guys in like the mid forties and fifties because I'm
Speaker 4: still finishing my card. Tony Fee now whose Majors form
Speaker 4: has not been great lately, but before that bad run
Speaker 4: was really good and I liked how he played in
Speaker 4: Houston a couple of weeks ago, runner up, so really
Speaker 4: good Tea Green and the putter's been good in three
Speaker 4: of the last four starts. I played him about forty
Speaker 4: five to one. And then another guy who's heard a
Speaker 4: lot of people I'm going with all the guys that
Speaker 4: are just heartbreakers this week Cameron Young fifty five to one,
Speaker 4: who is actually I think in better form coming into
Speaker 4: this Masters than last year when he was twenty five
Speaker 4: to one and ultimately finished seventh. Seven runner up finishes
Speaker 4: on the PGA Tour in the last three years for
Speaker 4: Cameron Young. But he's got the game here. He was
Speaker 4: the early leader in round one last year. So I
Speaker 4: just went on the drift here. I just went on
Speaker 4: double the price for a guy that I think is
Speaker 4: probably in better form this time around.
Speaker 1: Also in the same way that I brought up Tendall
Speaker 1: and who he landed on, I should bring up because
Speaker 1: you brought up Tony Fenew and because we can hear
Speaker 1: gasps already when we bring up showflet or finale from
Speaker 1: all golf betters listening to this. When Joe Peta our
Speaker 1: friend who people know from baseball analytics and also analytics,
Speaker 1: when he did the twenty nineteen Master's Tour Guide where
Speaker 1: he had access to the proprietary Augusta data, his conclusion
Speaker 1: was that Tony Feenow was going to win that twenty
Speaker 1: nineteen Masters. He was actually the third round leader, if
Speaker 1: I'm not mistaken, didn't get there. But Fenw's analytics on
Speaker 1: this course over time are as good as anyone's. All right, SIA,
Speaker 1: your outrights, And then that you can vomit out everything
Speaker 1: else at this point too, but let's start with your outrights.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I like what I had just heard from Wes
Speaker 5: and Kelly.
Speaker 6: I mean, I don't know that brooks Kepka's name was mentioned,
Speaker 6: but you know, I don't want to go narrative shopping
Speaker 6: too much here, but the big game hunter thing actually
Speaker 6: is true for brooks Keopka, And even though on Livy
Speaker 6: he's not taking down tournaments, I do think Brooks is
Speaker 6: one of those guys that none of us are going
Speaker 6: to be surprised if he wins this tournament. I got
Speaker 6: it at twenty to one. I think it's eighteen, maybe
Speaker 6: sixteen to one in some markets. But again, I brooks
Speaker 6: Kopka when he's not injured, because don't forget he missed
Speaker 6: a couple of cuts here when he was kind of
Speaker 6: dealing with injuries. But otherwise, I believe we've got two
Speaker 6: second place finishes and a seventh place finishes over the
Speaker 6: last five years, so I.
Speaker 5: Really like him.
Speaker 6: I don't know that he's getting enough respect in the market,
Speaker 6: and I do think that has something to do with
Speaker 6: Live and just not really flashing.
Speaker 5: On Live necessarily. But Hitdeki mounts Siyama.
Speaker 6: Kelly mentioned him, and there's a guy that Wes mentioned
Speaker 6: too that I'm really surprised about but is also on
Speaker 6: my card. So I'm really happy to hear that. But
Speaker 6: there's not much else we can say about Deckie. We
Speaker 6: know the recent forum has been very good. I don't
Speaker 6: know that there's anybody in this field. I mean, obviously
Speaker 6: probably two or three that you can make the argument
Speaker 6: for that's more comfortable at Augusta than Hideki mount Sciama.
Speaker 6: We know he has the win in twenty twenty one,
Speaker 6: but since twenty fifteen, for the record, to think about that,
Speaker 6: it's a long time ago. He's made every cut Okay,
Speaker 6: that's kind of impressive and finished inside the top twenty
Speaker 6: eight out.
Speaker 5: Of those nine times.
Speaker 6: That is really really Oh by the way, the one
Speaker 6: time he didn't finish inside the top twenty, he was
Speaker 6: a disgusting T thirty two. I mean, this guy is
Speaker 6: just a walking top ten, top twenty machine at Augusta. Specifically,
Speaker 6: he's got the around the green game. He checks to
Speaker 6: weight it off, the tee boxes, long iron play. Obviously
Speaker 6: around the Green is super solid for him. Absolutely love him.
Speaker 6: Cam Young's the guy that I was surprised, Wes mentioned.
Speaker 6: I'm really happy about it because I think Wes is right.
Speaker 6: I think he is in better form now than he
Speaker 6: was before. And for the record, this is his third
Speaker 6: time at the Masters. He missed the cut his first time,
Speaker 6: no shame in that debutante all that stuff.
Speaker 5: But the second time he was excellent off the tee
Speaker 5: and he was excellent with the putter.
Speaker 6: He checks all the boxes I'm looking for with long irons,
Speaker 6: off the tee, approach game, all of that stuff. What's
Speaker 6: interesting about him, and maybe this is a small sample size,
Speaker 6: but his around the green game is not very good. Right,
Speaker 6: But at Augusta, the two times he's been there, he's
Speaker 6: been relatively neutral. I mean, he hasn't had a poor performance,
Speaker 6: hasn't had a great performance around the green. So I
Speaker 6: think the argument can be made that he might actually
Speaker 6: have some success here around the green.
Speaker 5: And because he checks all the other boxes.
Speaker 6: I think fifty five to one, fifty to one is
Speaker 6: like borderline disrespectful.
Speaker 5: I know he doesn't win. I get that part.
Speaker 6: But we make the same argument about Xander Schaffley, and
Speaker 6: I'm not sure the talent gap between those two is
Speaker 6: that dramatic so fifty five to one, fifty to one,
Speaker 6: absolutely love Cam Young.
Speaker 1: All right, sea first round leaders where you've made your hay.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'll make this super easy.
Speaker 6: We talked about Cam Young getting getting in front of
Speaker 6: it in the first round. I like him, I like
Speaker 6: Kideki Matsuyama, I like Brooks Kopka.
Speaker 5: I'm going with my outright card.
Speaker 6: Here's part of the reason I don't normally do this,
Speaker 6: but two weeks ago at the Houston Open, West Reynolds
Speaker 6: had Steven Yeger Well, I had Stephen Yeger first round leader,
Speaker 6: but I didn't have him in my outright card. Last
Speaker 6: week I had akshe Batia first round leader. Turns out
Speaker 6: that hit, but he didn't you know, I didn't have
Speaker 6: the akhe Batia outright. And so that's two weeks in
Speaker 6: a row where I've had the first round leader but
Speaker 6: not the outright and it was the same guy. I'm
Speaker 6: just gonna go ahead and go with guys that I
Speaker 6: know can get out in front of it.
Speaker 5: I mean Decky, cam Young and Brooks.
Speaker 6: They fit that profile and you know, most of them
Speaker 6: very comfortable here. I think at their numbers, which are
Speaker 6: in like the twenty eight to one range, and then
Speaker 6: then in Cam Young's case, I think he's in the
Speaker 6: forty five to one range, like all three.
Speaker 1: Like the sound of that. By the way, I have
Speaker 1: dare you not have Patiata win the whole?
Speaker 5: I know, terrible, I know what I'm thinking.
Speaker 1: It's so funny because you guys do this so much
Speaker 1: more brilliantly than I do. But somehow in my head
Speaker 1: hack golf better. I love Matsuyama and Keopka the most. Also,
Speaker 1: and Kepka because, like you said, big game hunter, right,
Speaker 1: I hate not having him and then seeing that shitting't
Speaker 1: e grin of his as he's just like, you know,
Speaker 1: crushing of course, so I will be on him and
Speaker 1: then Matsuyama. I've said this on a couple occasions this
Speaker 1: week with Kelly. I just feel like if we on Vson,
Speaker 1: for instance, maybe it's different with long shots, but on Vson,
Speaker 1: if we somehow had a way of aggregating all the
Speaker 1: time we've spent not only on a numbers geting on
Speaker 1: every show talking about all the great golfers in the world,
Speaker 1: from the Kepka's to the JT's, to the Speace to
Speaker 1: the Schefflers, to the Rams and beyond. I just feel
Speaker 1: like Matsuyama is the least talked about of all of
Speaker 1: that tier of golfers. And I get it, all right,
Speaker 1: maybe he's not quite the top of the tip of
Speaker 1: the top, but I just feel like he gets overlooked
Speaker 1: a lot. And you know, besides providing us with the
Speaker 1: most iconic moment, or one of the more iconic moments
Speaker 1: in Master's history with his caddy bowing at eighteen, which
Speaker 1: is just you know, it's chill inducing, I just I
Speaker 1: have a feeling about him as well. Take that for
Speaker 1: what it's worth, which is not worth much, but that's
Speaker 1: Those are the two I landed on, SEEA so that
Speaker 1: you can go tell us all your other bets here.
Speaker 6: Yeah, by the way, one outright, I forgot, and I
Speaker 6: think Kelly brought him up. I do like Shane Lowry
Speaker 6: at sixty to one. I did want to point that out.
Speaker 6: He's been really hot in Florida and let's see at
Speaker 6: the Masters his last four T sixteen, third T twenty one,
Speaker 6: twenty five, and he's really coming in with good form,
Speaker 6: particularly with the iron. So I think sixty to one,
Speaker 6: that's the fourth guy on my card. I just forgot
Speaker 6: to mention him. So it's it's the three I mentioned
Speaker 6: plus Shane Lowie. Okay, so just a couple other picks
Speaker 6: turning matchups, I got two for you. I got Shane
Speaker 6: Lowry speaking of over Colin Moore cow, I like Taylor
Speaker 6: Moore over Eric Cole.
Speaker 5: Taylor Moore in very very good.
Speaker 6: Form, some spike finishing positions. I do think he has
Speaker 6: some top ten, top twenty potential. Eric Cole's game is
Speaker 6: just not there right now for whatever reason. So Taylor
Speaker 6: Moore minus one thirty over Cole. These are tournament matchups,
Speaker 6: and then I'll just rattle off a few finishing positions
Speaker 6: before I get out of here. Taylor Moore t forty.
Speaker 6: I like that at plus money. That's plus one ten.
Speaker 6: I like Lucas Glover, who has also in very good
Speaker 6: form and has had some success at the Masters. Hasn't
Speaker 6: played a lot of it. He played a lot of
Speaker 6: it pre twenty fifteen, hasn't played a lot lately, but
Speaker 6: when he has played, he's been okay. He certainly fits
Speaker 6: the bill for somebody who would T forty here. I
Speaker 6: like that at plus one oh five. Seawoo Cam minus
Speaker 6: one ten at T thirty very comfortable Master's history for him,
Speaker 6: I've got Shane Lowry T twenty at plus one fifty
Speaker 6: and a sprinkle bet because I know people are going
Speaker 6: to be hesitant to bet Cam Young to win it
Speaker 6: for kind of obvious reasons. I think Cam Young in
Speaker 6: the top ten market may may be the better play,
Speaker 6: the more valuable play at plus three sixty. So that's
Speaker 6: something I think you know again, those plus three sixty
Speaker 6: plays when it comes to finishing market, you don't have
Speaker 6: to put a full unit on that, right, You don't
Speaker 6: even have to put a half unit. You can put
Speaker 6: point three units on that to get a full unit.
Speaker 6: So those are kind of like, if you like Cam Young,
Speaker 6: but you don't like him enough to bet him as
Speaker 6: an outright, maybe you take him in the top ten
Speaker 6: where I think he can firmly land at plus three sixty.
Speaker 1: All right, Sea, thank you so much. Man, appreciate it's
Speaker 1: seeing the shot. Everybody SI A N, E J A
Speaker 1: D on Twitter just like it sounds. Monumental sports network
Speaker 1: and sports line host and analyst and of course a
Speaker 1: member or at least a resident of the DMV. Now,
Speaker 1: thank you, Sea, appreciate it.
Speaker 5: Man, Thank you, Gil Kelly and Wes he soon and
Speaker 5: have a great week.
Speaker 1: You too, go get some winners. Seeing his shot kind
Speaker 1: to join us. He's got other stuff he's got to
Speaker 1: do as well. By the way, Wes, let me just
Speaker 1: point this out. When I asked about Bugaboo, I'm like
Speaker 1: thinking ed Og and the Bulldogs, and Wes comes in
Speaker 1: with Destiny's shot, and I'm like, okay, West, it's on
Speaker 1: top of him as always. Well, I was.
Speaker 3: Trying to think of who you were thinking of. But
Speaker 3: I do remember that song. I was like Destiny's Child
Speaker 3: or was it a show?
Speaker 4: It was one of those It's only two thousand, R
Speaker 4: and B beyond Janus.
Speaker 7: It was great because I know you too well, both
Speaker 7: well enough that I know Gil was trying to set
Speaker 7: up the alley up to show off the West Reynolds
Speaker 7: knowledge and then he just came over.
Speaker 1: The top of it. Yeah. By the way, we didn't
Speaker 1: mention that on the show today. How great We did
Speaker 1: a whole show obviously at college basketball was big. The
Speaker 1: most random moment of that game last night. Who was
Speaker 1: the kid on Purdue that had that dunk? Yeah? That
Speaker 1: was that mountain heid Heidi.
Speaker 2: I was out of my I was out of my
Speaker 2: chair and we didn't bring that up on it.
Speaker 1: We can't wear two hours. We didn't bring it up.
Speaker 1: Am I wrong in saying? That is easily one of
Speaker 1: the top five in game dunks you've ever seen in
Speaker 1: your life at any level.
Speaker 4: And yet they couldn't put it in the One Shining
Speaker 4: Moment and put it in video package at the end
Speaker 4: of the night.
Speaker 3: I'm like, come on, you know I didn't even think
Speaker 3: squeeze that right in. Yeah, I love.
Speaker 2: One Shining Moment.
Speaker 7: I was so mad how late it was last night,
Speaker 7: Like it felt like it took for ever.
Speaker 1: I don't know they forgot We're gonna have one Shining
Speaker 1: Moment the other broadcast.
Speaker 7: I made sure to stay. I love one Shining Moment.
Speaker 7: It's my favorite moment of the entire tournament. How was
Speaker 7: that not in there?
Speaker 1: Well, let me go back to the expert West Reynolds.
Speaker 1: I'm more of a Teddy Pendergrass One Shiny Moment guy
Speaker 1: than I am a loose.
Speaker 3: Shit I am too.
Speaker 4: I love Luther, and you know they switched it with
Speaker 4: a couple other singers, But yeah, Teddy Pandergrass. And maybe
Speaker 4: I'm old school too, because that's when my university was.
Speaker 4: I think a lot more relevant college basketball that be
Speaker 4: in Indiana University, where they were always featured deep in
Speaker 4: multiple times in the package.
Speaker 3: When Teddy Pendergrass was doing the number.
Speaker 2: Real quick, I know we're talking golf. I'm so glad
Speaker 2: you brought that up.
Speaker 3: Though.
Speaker 7: I was like, I saw him like it was one
Speaker 7: of those I saw coming. But I was like, all right,
Speaker 7: what's this kid gonna do here? You know, like, what's
Speaker 7: this this kid going to do on this put back?
Speaker 2: There's no and you're like, oh my, well, one.
Speaker 1: Last college basketball question before we get back to golf.
Speaker 1: I think the golf people will forgive me, but I
Speaker 1: have Wes here, so I want to ask him. My
Speaker 1: big question last night was forget the fact that uk
Speaker 1: Obviously we know Yukon's domination against Perdue last night come
Speaker 1: second half, but where do I arbitrarily made the year
Speaker 1: two thousand? Where does that team rank for you since
Speaker 1: the year two thousand? Are they the best college basketball
Speaker 1: team since that.
Speaker 4: Year in terms of a team that actually, you know,
Speaker 4: finishes winning the championship?
Speaker 3: I think it's at least the.
Speaker 4: Best team since twenty twelve Kentucky, And then, of course
Speaker 4: was the ad team that ended up winning at all.
Speaker 3: That was Col's lone national championship.
Speaker 4: Perhaps that has not been officially announced yet that he's
Speaker 4: leaving Lexington, But yeah, I think in terms of like
Speaker 4: the Ken Pomeroy I read this adjusted efficiency ranking, just overall,
Speaker 4: it's the best team since twenty one Duke. So if
Speaker 4: you go by that type of rating and put some
Speaker 4: credence into that, I could certainly see that. But it's
Speaker 4: at least the best team in over a decade.
Speaker 1: For me, Doctor Bob had a non winner twenty fifteen Kentucky,
Speaker 1: the team that was undefeated that got to the Final.
Speaker 4: Four, because I was there at that Final four in
Speaker 4: Indianapolis at Luca Stadium when Wisconsin knocked him off. So
Speaker 4: that's why I said non championship team, because they did
Speaker 4: get all the way to the final four undefeated, where
Speaker 4: we're still waiting for that fully undefeated season since the
Speaker 4: last time with seventy six Indiana.
Speaker 1: Kent Benson, Quinn Buckner, and Scott may Kelly.
Speaker 2: You remember it, Oh yeah, sure totally.
Speaker 1: By the way, you know what wish Nev was obsessed
Speaker 1: with yesterday at the end that I can only say
Speaker 1: this on the podcast, I can say that's the radio side,
Speaker 1: wish nev yesterday morning goes, you gotta find this out
Speaker 1: for me. Where's is this the in? How long was
Speaker 1: this the most white starters for both teams combined? Oh?
Speaker 1: When was the let so.
Speaker 2: I literally about that earlier in the tournament.
Speaker 1: Well, you all were looking at a solar eclipse. I
Speaker 1: was like a deep diving NCAA finalists for and the
Speaker 1: only comp I could come up with. Now we're not
Speaker 1: talking you know, pre nineteen sixty six UTEP because obviously
Speaker 1: the world was different and in a bad way. But
Speaker 1: the only comp I could come up was like nineteen
Speaker 1: seventy eight Duke Kentucky where they also had six Caucasian starters. Cittingway,
Speaker 1: that was wish cancerted yesterday.
Speaker 4: Well, then you know that's the day about college basketball. Now,
Speaker 4: there was only one McDonald's All American, by the way,
Speaker 4: in the final four Stefan Castle at Yukon, Wow, which
Speaker 4: you don't get that very often. And the fact that
Speaker 4: it's get old stale now in college basketball.
Speaker 3: It's all old stale all to portal.
Speaker 4: Yes, yeah, yeah, you got to get the Blue Chippers,
Speaker 4: but you got to get older guys. Cam Spencer, by
Speaker 4: the way, who was he didn't get the most Valuable Player.
Speaker 4: I think it was Tristan Newton. But Cam Spencer for
Speaker 4: Yukon just turned twenty four on Saturday and I looked
Speaker 4: it up. There were six NBA All Stars this year
Speaker 4: age twenty four or younger.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there was something where he's like, he's like older
Speaker 1: and they listed all these NBA players. I'm like, camp
Speaker 1: Spencer's old with all those guys.
Speaker 3: Anyway, Paulo Boncaro is twenty one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's like way older than Bud Carrol. Anyway. Well,
Speaker 1: it's a golf podcast, but I'd love to get your
Speaker 1: thoughts on next year because if if Bama can stick
Speaker 1: keep those guys, man, I think Bama's the play. But
Speaker 1: that's a big if. Uh Okay, back to golf, Wes.
Speaker 1: What else besides your outrights do you have in pocket already?
Speaker 1: What have you bet?
Speaker 4: I'm gonna be playing and I'm actually gonna be adding
Speaker 4: after we're done here some placement markets.
Speaker 3: One matchup I did play.
Speaker 4: I did play Patrick Reid plus one fifteen over Terrel
Speaker 4: Hatton and Teryl Hatton. If you were watching the live
Speaker 4: dural event last week, he was in the mix didn't
Speaker 4: get it done there. At the end, Dean Burdmester won
Speaker 4: the playoff over Sergio Garcia.
Speaker 3: But this is just terrel.
Speaker 4: Hatton has never really seemed to be comfortable at Augusta National,
Speaker 4: has never really liked it here. He's got one top
Speaker 4: twenty and seven appearances. And Patrick Reid, who look is
Speaker 4: not contending week in and week out on the Live Tour,
Speaker 4: loves this play and he's still a magician around the
Speaker 4: greens with scrambling and around the green, which I think
Speaker 4: is going to really matter this week. So you know,
Speaker 4: I was surprised see Patrick Reid that big of an underdog,
Speaker 4: cause I did play Patrick Reid plus one fifteen over
Speaker 4: Tyrollhatton on a matchup. And then for low amateur this year,
Speaker 4: I went with the big six to eight kid who
Speaker 4: plays at Georgia Tech. You might remember if you watched
Speaker 4: the Open Championship last year he was the first round
Speaker 4: leader there. And I went with Chrysto Lamprecked at plus
Speaker 4: two twenty five to be the low.
Speaker 3: Amateur here at Augusta National.
Speaker 4: And that's always kind of a crapshoot market because you're
Speaker 4: getting the British Amateur you're getting the USM, you're getting
Speaker 4: the Latino America Amateur, so you're getting only a few
Speaker 4: in the field. But Christo Lampreck, look, I gotta think
Speaker 4: he's at least played Augusta National several times, being a
Speaker 4: member of the Georgia Tech Golf team, you know, and
Speaker 4: being based at least in the state. So Christo Lampreck
Speaker 4: plus two twenty five low am.
Speaker 7: Oh so say it might be a crap shoot market
Speaker 7: for a lot of people out there. Wes Rynolds definitely
Speaker 7: has a better read on that kind of stuff than
Speaker 7: most of us.
Speaker 2: I'll say that, much.
Speaker 1: Like Jason Weingarten doing baseball prospecially exactly. I think he
Speaker 1: knows what he's talk exactly. By the way, about debutants
Speaker 1: because it's our annual, you know, entree to using the
Speaker 1: word debutants where no first time Masters player has won
Speaker 1: the Master since nineteen seventy nine. And Fuzzy Zeller, do
Speaker 1: you throw out all first timers to win it all?
Speaker 1: Wes more more often than not.
Speaker 4: Yes, But look, and I don't have any on the
Speaker 4: on the card necessarily. But Kelly mentioned one though, that
Speaker 4: usually you don't get a first timer that's already a
Speaker 4: major championship winner, and you do have that this year
Speaker 4: with Wyndham Clark. In terms of the debutant market, there's
Speaker 4: twenty by the way, this year in the eighty nine
Speaker 4: player field. Ludwig Obert, who you know, if you listen
Speaker 4: to Launch every week, Ludwig Gobert is like price less
Speaker 4: than twenty to one. He's already won on the PGA
Speaker 4: Tour and he's won on the DP World Tour. But
Speaker 4: it's like this guy gets priced like he's a major
Speaker 4: champion and now he's not. A guy I'm necessarily high
Speaker 4: on this week just because I think this, by the way,
Speaker 4: is his the first major championship he's ever played.
Speaker 3: Ludvigobert, as much of.
Speaker 4: A star as he is, this is going to be
Speaker 4: his first major championship appearance. So man, if he does it,
Speaker 4: then then maybe he is the next big thing in golf.
Speaker 4: And I think he is going to be, you know,
Speaker 4: a pretty big player for years to come. But yeah,
Speaker 4: you've got a lot of people in this debutante market,
Speaker 4: but don't I don't bet him for the outright wins,
Speaker 4: but I think certainly for placements and any type of props,
Speaker 4: I don't think you want to ignore these guys, because
Speaker 4: keep in mind, will Zalatorus was runner up his first
Speaker 4: time a couple of years ago.
Speaker 3: Montsia Jonas Lexed.
Speaker 4: Actually many years ago, was a debutante in finished.
Speaker 3: D two here.
Speaker 4: So don't think that these guys are just all going
Speaker 4: to be at the bottom of the board when you're
Speaker 4: scrolling through. There's going to be a couple of these
Speaker 4: guys that contend.
Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah, I honestly, Wes, this is interesting is I
Speaker 7: can remember it a long time that the the the
Speaker 7: debutant market. God, I'm so sick of debutant and totality.
Speaker 3: I'm only like totality.
Speaker 7: I'm already I'm only halfway done with probably Master's content
Speaker 7: for the week. I'm so sick of saying the word
Speaker 7: debutante before you before you go west?
Speaker 1: Did you did you were? Did you look for the
Speaker 1: clips yesterday? Did you did you see it?
Speaker 3: I did not.
Speaker 4: I called the coverage on television as I was doing
Speaker 4: some uh some written work for the Masters stuff. We
Speaker 4: were doing the same I saw well at my hometown
Speaker 4: in Indianapolis. There was a big deal at the Indianapolis
Speaker 4: Motor Speedway. Yeah, which I guess is a pretty good
Speaker 4: place to watch it. And uh yeah, so, uh yeah,
Speaker 4: I was watching that all the day.
Speaker 3: It's like, okay, they.
Speaker 4: Have totality here in New Hampshire, yes, but not yet
Speaker 4: in Vermont.
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, the totality. The totality spots were great and
Speaker 1: awesome and it must be so cool. But I have
Speaker 1: a working theory that people lie when they are in
Speaker 1: other places. So like, there's people in Vegas I have
Speaker 1: when I was a kid in DC too. I have
Speaker 1: the same reaction in both both times where I'm like,
Speaker 1: I didn't see a thing and in both cases there
Speaker 1: were people in the same spot that I was like, oh,
Speaker 1: it was amazing. Are people lying? Wes? Really? Aren't people
Speaker 1: full of it?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 4: Look, I think people want something kind of exciting and
Speaker 4: in their life and then their lives do and you know,
Speaker 4: just want some kind of escapism from the normal day
Speaker 4: to day news cycle that we currently have, so you know,
Speaker 4: maybe a little bit of embellishment.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, Kelly said totality. I apologize. Go ahead, Yeah,
Speaker 1: you're fine. No, I was just are you kidding? Me?
Speaker 7: As fascinating with that as anybody, but no, the deputyp Market,
Speaker 7: I think is really fascinating this this year. I mean,
Speaker 7: you brought up all thatself about Louvie Abert, but that
Speaker 7: are o bear.
Speaker 2: But this is like Wes.
Speaker 7: I think that you know, the course, we're moving back
Speaker 7: some of the tea boxes, like I do think like
Speaker 7: the course fits. Some of these guys game pretty damn well,
Speaker 7: including Ludwig, including Wyndham Clark, including Aux Japetia. You know,
Speaker 7: if his shoulder can stay in the socket, you know,
Speaker 7: I think I think he's got.
Speaker 2: A fighting chance. Danny McCarthy's right there in that market
Speaker 2: as well.
Speaker 7: So I mean we've had we've seen other guys that
Speaker 7: have won this year, you know, obviously Pavone, Jake nab
Speaker 7: Nick Dunlap. I'm I'm excited to see what some of
Speaker 7: these guys can do. And I do have some betting
Speaker 7: interest in Wyndham Clark. As you said, guy's already won
Speaker 7: a major. I don't really the experience of Augusta is
Speaker 7: extremely important, but at the moment's not going to be
Speaker 7: too much more, that's for sure.
Speaker 1: Those are all your bets. You have other bets that
Speaker 1: you've made besides that, right, So.
Speaker 2: I got yeah, I got others.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I can roll through mine here quick, so outrights
Speaker 7: already went through those top I have a big bet,
Speaker 7: big bet top ten on Xander Schoffley. That's the way
Speaker 7: I chose to attack that. Completely agree with everything that
Speaker 7: Wes said, though I would have him as the second
Speaker 7: best guy you know on the PGA Tour right now.
Speaker 7: I think that there are the Masters is very interesting
Speaker 7: to me this year because if you are someone who
Speaker 7: focuses heavy PGA Tour as I do, and not as
Speaker 7: much live, and West does a little bit more with
Speaker 7: that stuff than I do.
Speaker 2: The live guys.
Speaker 7: Yes, I think John Rahm, I think Brooks Koepka is interesting.
Speaker 7: I think it's great. I think Jackie Neeman's interesting with
Speaker 7: the year he's putting together. I think his odds have
Speaker 7: maybe gotten a little too short though for me to
Speaker 7: have much interest betting interest in him. So you kind
Speaker 7: of if you throw out the live guys, then you
Speaker 7: can start picking through these PGA Tour guys and man
Speaker 7: West like you could.
Speaker 2: It's it's only a handful of.
Speaker 7: Guys that you could really make a claim that are okay,
Speaker 7: this is a world class player who's in form coming
Speaker 7: into this tournament that you can really that you can
Speaker 7: really feel confident backing, So I think that's part of
Speaker 7: the reason why why I'm more confident putting some dollars
Speaker 7: behind Sanders Shoffley, then maybe a lot of people would
Speaker 7: be in this tournament because he is one of those
Speaker 7: guys who's been getting it done basically week in and
Speaker 7: week out on tour this year. So yeah, I went
Speaker 7: top ten on him, heavy bet on top Hitdeki, top twenty.
Speaker 1: If he finishes. If Shafley finishes twelve, will you never
Speaker 1: ever bet on him again for the rest of the
Speaker 1: calendar year.
Speaker 2: No, I'll still better.
Speaker 1: I'll be.
Speaker 7: Heavy bet on the top twenty on Hitdeki, Matsi Yama.
Speaker 7: I will be adding uh finishing position markets here today.
Speaker 7: Other guys that I will be adding Nieman I will
Speaker 7: be mixing in somewhere. I think what I'm gonna do
Speaker 7: with him is probably take a top ten shot. Either
Speaker 7: he's got the game to show up and compete and
Speaker 7: he's right around there, or uh, we're all overrating what
Speaker 7: he's done this year. So I'll probably play a top
Speaker 7: ten on him.
Speaker 2: Shane Lowry.
Speaker 7: Shane Lowry, I ended up playing in a couple matchups,
Speaker 7: so I might actually not play in any of the
Speaker 7: finishing position markets, but I think a top twenty bet
Speaker 7: on him is sound. See you brought Seawill came up.
Speaker 7: I will definitely be on him in a top twenty bet,
Speaker 7: waiting for some pricing to show up on him. And
Speaker 7: that's everything finishing position tournament matchups right now. I have
Speaker 7: hit Deecki over Jordan Speith. I don't hate Speek this week,
Speaker 7: but this is more of a price play only minus
Speaker 7: one twenty. I gotta lay with deck I've got Decky.
Speaker 1: I don't hate Jordan, So you just hate Jordan Smith
Speaker 1: in general. Yeah, he's a human.
Speaker 2: Good point.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I hate Jordan Speed in general. I hate how
Speaker 7: much he talks to the damn Caber stuff. Just get
Speaker 7: out of your game. But no, I think betting wise
Speaker 7: this week, he is a guy you could make a
Speaker 7: case for, but the minus one twenty not steep enough
Speaker 7: for me to stay away from a Decky matchup over him,
Speaker 7: and I bet Lowry plus one oh four over call
Speaker 7: him more a cow. I believe that was the one
Speaker 7: that Sea mentioned. I'm on the same exact matchup as him,
Speaker 7: and then Lowry plus one twenty over Matt Fitzpatrick mat
Speaker 7: Fitzpatrick another guy that I don't think is gonna have it.
Speaker 7: He could have a good week, but he's not really
Speaker 7: high on my radar. Calinmore Kala not really a guy
Speaker 7: that's put it all together. And then a couple other
Speaker 7: props that I've bet so far, Wyndham Clark I mentioned
Speaker 7: as top Debutante, and then Corey Connors I bet for
Speaker 7: top Canadian.
Speaker 2: Corey Connors is to hit the Gala.
Speaker 7: Were the guys that kind of just I just left
Speaker 7: off my card for other bets that I'm interested in,
Speaker 7: But Corey Connors made it for top Canadian for sure?
Speaker 1: Okay, do we lose web? Okay? Did West gave out
Speaker 1: all his plays?
Speaker 3: Right? Didn't he already?
Speaker 2: If not, they'll be up at Visa dot gum.
Speaker 1: Visa dot com slash picks. Uh, let's try to get
Speaker 1: West back because I want to ask my final two questions.
Speaker 1: So here are the final two final two questions. I
Speaker 1: want to get your thoughts on this one. First of all,
Speaker 1: who is the golfer that if they win or are
Speaker 1: competing at the end, you're gonna have the most self
Speaker 1: loathing over because you will not have any position on them,
Speaker 1: like who's the guy that you and by that I
Speaker 1: mean obviously there's like, you know, millions of choices. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm talking about someone who you're thinking about betting but
Speaker 1: ultimately are not going to, and then they're gonna stick
Speaker 1: it up your you know what when all is said
Speaker 1: and done.
Speaker 7: Well, I just mentioned Connor's at the gala, but if
Speaker 7: we're being honest, I wouldn't bet an outright on Connors anyways,
Speaker 7: So I guess the Gala might be the answer for me,
Speaker 7: but it's also it's also Brooks Koepka.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I is.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I'm glad you brought this up because there's also
Speaker 7: the outrights. I rattled off like I'm I'm leaving room
Speaker 7: to get in live as well.
Speaker 1: Okay, so that was my second.
Speaker 7: Yeah, like there are there are some guys at the
Speaker 7: top of that board, whether it and mainly i'm talking
Speaker 7: Scheffler Rom Koepka. Yes, yeah, those three literally those three
Speaker 7: is what I'm talking about of where I would look
Speaker 7: to get in live on one of those.
Speaker 1: So these were exactly my my final two questions. And Wes,
Speaker 1: I think you've given out all your bets already, so
Speaker 1: I can ask you the final two questions.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, so far.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna add more over the over the next couple
Speaker 4: of days.
Speaker 1: But so so the fun Yeah, the final two head, Oh, no,
Speaker 1: you finish your thought, go ahead. I'm sorry.
Speaker 4: No, I was just gonna say I'm gonna add a
Speaker 4: couple more of the placements. Usually I don't place those
Speaker 4: on a week until like Tuesday or Wednesday, you know,
Speaker 4: just to kind of get a gauge of the market.
Speaker 4: But uh, that's what I have, at least at the moment,
Speaker 4: but more to come, certainly.
Speaker 1: Okay, So here are the final two questions. They're not
Speaker 1: the megapod questions, but they're at the final two and
Speaker 1: and Kelly's right, they are kind of related. Which is
Speaker 1: my standard question for golf. Is much of golf betting
Speaker 1: for many a self loathing, Like you think about betting
Speaker 1: a golfer, but you don't pull the trigger on it,
Speaker 1: and then comes Sunday back nine. There they are either
Speaker 1: in the lead or in contention. And so my first
Speaker 1: question is, you know, which is the golfer that is
Speaker 1: going to cause you the most self loathing because you're
Speaker 1: not gonna have any money on it. But Kelly's right,
Speaker 1: my second question is actually related which is, on the
Speaker 1: other hand, how much of your betting pie is going
Speaker 1: to be in tournament. So Scheffler, who's four to one?
Speaker 1: We all love Scotti Scheffler, for God's sake, I feel
Speaker 1: like you should have a bet on him in every tournament.
Speaker 1: But at four to one, that's ridiculous, right, Like, no
Speaker 1: one's really betting him pre flop, and now I just
Speaker 1: say no one. Someone is, But it's not like necessarily
Speaker 1: something that you guys would do. Who is the golfer
Speaker 1: that you aren't going to have anything preflop, but you
Speaker 1: will be quick to jump in on if a number
Speaker 1: becomes more favorable.
Speaker 4: It might be It might be Patrick Cantley actually, because
Speaker 4: he is drifted up to forty to one, and this
Speaker 4: is a guy I have a prop bet on.
Speaker 3: Him to win a major this year.
Speaker 4: But yeah, Patrick Cantley Victor Hoblin being another one. Those
Speaker 4: are kind of the two guys that have drifted up
Speaker 4: that I thought, Okay, this is their year going into
Speaker 4: this year where they're going to finally win a major,
Speaker 4: and neither has really played that great. Can't Lay was
Speaker 4: the fifty four hole leader at Riviera when I had him,
Speaker 4: and as alators as well, and they got passed by
Speaker 4: Matsiyama who shot that sixty two on Sunday to get
Speaker 4: the win. But yeah, Victor Hoblin's kind of been a
Speaker 4: little bit off this year. You know, he has a
Speaker 4: sports psychologist out there, he's had a different swing coach,
Speaker 4: but yeah, he's got the potential, man, But I just
Speaker 4: am like, Okay, the day of the week, I don't
Speaker 4: put these guys on. Here are the weeks that they're
Speaker 4: going to burn me. So you always have that fomo
Speaker 4: type of thing. I think, especially as a golf futures better.
Speaker 4: But those are the two that I think have drifted
Speaker 4: up a little bit where it's like, man, these guys
Speaker 4: would be in like the teens or the twenty to
Speaker 4: one and now you're seeing them like forty one out
Speaker 4: there in the market.
Speaker 1: Those are good answers. All right, I lied here here's
Speaker 1: my last the last question. So Hoblin and Kent'tley would
Speaker 1: would fill that bill. Who's the guy though that no
Speaker 1: matter how good he's doing rounds one, rounds two, rounds three,
Speaker 1: you're it's not gonna be a Hoblin or can't lay,
Speaker 1: but you're still gonna be like I'm still not betting
Speaker 1: this guy. There's no way I'm betting him. This can't
Speaker 1: be real, It's not happening. Is that a Tyrrell Hatton
Speaker 1: kind of guy?
Speaker 2: Wes who you got?
Speaker 3: Oh Man? Probably?
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know if I could pick on guys,
Speaker 2: that would be.
Speaker 3: A good answer.
Speaker 1: That is a good answer.
Speaker 4: You don't feel like, Okay, it's his time. You feel
Speaker 4: like eventually he's going to have a time, but is
Speaker 4: it going to be here? Like can this really happen
Speaker 4: like that? That seems like something that only Tiger Woods
Speaker 4: would do, like when his first ever major on you
Speaker 4: know that early in his career. But uh uh, A
Speaker 4: couple guys, even though I did bet him on a
Speaker 4: matchup that I won't have on an outright just because
Speaker 4: the form, the form isn't there.
Speaker 3: Is Patrick Reid.
Speaker 4: You know, like last year we were watching this when
Speaker 4: the live guys all kind of got ignored in the
Speaker 4: betting market and drifted up too far and then they
Speaker 4: played really well well now, especially if like Brooks and
Speaker 4: you go walking Neeman in there too, and maybe even
Speaker 4: to Shambo where it's kind of like, okay, everybody knows
Speaker 4: that these guys, you know, yeah, are still at least playing,
Speaker 4: you know, somewhat competitive golf, whatever you think of the
Speaker 4: live tour. But Bryson to Shambo actually a name I
Speaker 4: just mentioned. That's a guy I will say because his distance,
Speaker 4: he's still number one in distance, He's still got some
Speaker 4: touch around the greens.
Speaker 3: But I just don't feel and remember he had that.
Speaker 4: Quote where it's like I feel like sixty seven's even
Speaker 4: party had that asenine quote and then he proceeded to
Speaker 4: shoot I think like several over. But Bryson to Shambo,
Speaker 4: just to me, on these greens, I never trust him, yeh.
Speaker 4: I never trust him on these bent grass greens, on
Speaker 4: these slick greens. So that might be the one where
Speaker 4: it's like, oh, this can't be real, like he's about
Speaker 4: to falter at some point.
Speaker 7: I I as I was scrolling down the odds board,
Speaker 7: that was the next name I was gonna mention.
Speaker 2: I think Ludwig maybe.
Speaker 7: A little unfair because we're picking on one of the
Speaker 7: new bee kids for guys that have been here before,
Speaker 7: who have you know, who have won, uh, you know,
Speaker 7: on tours before.
Speaker 2: Bryson Deshamba would be I'm with Wes.
Speaker 7: I don't think there's any situation where I'd be like,
Speaker 7: oh man, I missed out on Bright's.
Speaker 1: I forgot he said that too.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the uh, I think the one that's fascinatings.
Speaker 7: Going back to you, like your your in tournament question
Speaker 7: is like, you know, see see what we talked about, right,
Speaker 7: does so much with first round leaders. I'll be dialing
Speaker 7: back a little bit that, you know, some of my
Speaker 7: first round betting, which is then going to impact me
Speaker 7: dialing back how much kind of in tournament stuff I'm
Speaker 7: doing simply because of because of this weather, And I
Speaker 7: don't know that I'm gonna feel confident enough by Wednesday
Speaker 7: night to really I mean, we'll see stuff changes and
Speaker 7: there might be a window there where you actually do think, uh,
Speaker 7: there's some groups that have a really big advantage. But
Speaker 7: we're sitting here on Tuesday morn late morning right now,
Speaker 7: and Thursday it looks like it could be a complete
Speaker 7: wash out from start to finish.
Speaker 1: Oh you pointed it out last year, like what if
Speaker 1: it just completely gets a limit.
Speaker 7: And that there's that right west, Like I know, we
Speaker 7: try to talk about these weather windows, but like there's
Speaker 7: a lot of times it's just a wash out and
Speaker 7: everybody gets pushed back, so you sometimes bet. You know,
Speaker 7: golf betters can outthink themselves sometimes when they try to
Speaker 7: look for those advantages. So I'll tell you if it's
Speaker 7: if it's looking like it looks right now, I can't
Speaker 7: imagine I'm gonna have much much invested on Thursday outside
Speaker 7: of my top guys like c Us mentioned, like, I'll
Speaker 7: still bet Decky first round leader because I'm loaded up
Speaker 7: on him so heavily already.
Speaker 2: H but honestly, that could be it. That might be
Speaker 2: it for first round.
Speaker 1: Did we have a master's that ever went to Monday?
Speaker 1: Didn't we?
Speaker 3: Oh? Yeah, yeah, we've had We've had it a couple.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I thought so. Okay, listen, appreciate it from
Speaker 1: both of you guys. I hope that gave some folks
Speaker 1: some food for thought. And I asked that last question
Speaker 1: not to like embarrass you guys if those guys end
Speaker 1: up being at the top, but just to let other
Speaker 1: folks know what you guys are thinking in terms of
Speaker 1: if you have the instinct to bet Bryson to Shamba, well,
Speaker 1: these guys might not still even if he's playing well.
Speaker 1: Phil Mickelson might be in that same category.
Speaker 7: The last note I'll add on Brooks like, there's also
Speaker 7: like this is live Betting's live betting doesn't matter what sport, right,
Speaker 7: I can say it's really easy for me to sit
Speaker 7: here on a Tuesday and say I would love to
Speaker 7: grab Scheffler Ram or Brooks live. Yeah, but of course
Speaker 7: I could be beating myself up on Monday if Brooks
Speaker 7: the first round lead and goes wired to wire to
Speaker 7: win the damn.
Speaker 1: And you might change your mind. And by the way,
Speaker 1: that's like from our perspective, like sports betting one oh one.
Speaker 1: What what annoys us most is when people think we
Speaker 1: must be beholden exactly to the picks we make in
Speaker 1: the moments that we're doing a show or a podcast,
Speaker 1: when in fact we're all live betters too right the
Speaker 1: moment they just give a clean example this when the
Speaker 1: FedEx Cup happened a few years ago, the three tournament
Speaker 1: Arc and I had Koepka Betts and I talked about
Speaker 1: keptain Keppa, but there was a moment on Sunday where
Speaker 1: I could grab Rory back to just make sure I
Speaker 1: didn't lose everything. And you had to time it perfectly,
Speaker 1: and you had to be present and your girlfriend or
Speaker 1: your wife couldn't be bothering you, But that's these are
Speaker 1: the things that go into all of betting, and so yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, we'll see how it plays out. I do
Speaker 1: think though, that the weather point is a good one,
Speaker 1: and that you know, also just for newer golfers, the
Speaker 1: quickest way to ruin is not everybody's West Reynolds, right mere,
Speaker 1: Mortals don't hit out rights on a regular basis. So
Speaker 1: the quickest way to what we call a betting leak,
Speaker 1: and I've talked about this on a numbers game recently,
Speaker 1: might be golf outrights. Like if you bet too many
Speaker 1: of them pre flop, it's probably a losing proposition, right Like,
Speaker 1: Not everybody's going to hit these at a high rate,
Speaker 1: so just be mindful of that. You guys have long
Speaker 1: Shots Live eleven pm tonight Eastern, eight pm Pacific Wes
Speaker 1: Kelly and Matt Brown. The name of the podcast is
Speaker 1: called long Shots. Is the live different from the podcast? Yeah,
Speaker 1: it would just be reposted. Oh, just rehost.
Speaker 7: So yeah, the show again, not live.
Speaker 1: We'll do it.
Speaker 7: Live once again, not live, not be waiting to see
Speaker 7: us outside of the Circus studio.
Speaker 4: At that time, live to tape there you go live
Speaker 4: to tape, so we call it in the biz.
Speaker 1: So you mean to tell me you're not doing this
Speaker 1: podcast a live podcast and a podcast podcast is correct? Yes, okay,
Speaker 1: long Shots is the name of the podcast. Though they
Speaker 1: do it every week and three of them at least
Speaker 1: when Matt shows up, they do all three of them.
Speaker 1: Matt is at the Masters, so we're all jealous of him,
Speaker 1: so I'm just spoking fun good for him. Have you
Speaker 1: ever been to the Masters? West?
Speaker 3: I have not. It's a bucket list item.
Speaker 4: Yeah, they don't. They don't like my kind there, Augusty either.
Speaker 4: Midwest Hillbillies.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well we don't really like West. Rentalds coming down here,
Speaker 1: all right. Wes Reynolds at Wes Reynolds one. That's the
Speaker 1: number one on Twitter. Also the co host of v
Speaker 1: sent tonight with Matt Humans what is that six pm?
Speaker 1: Is it? West?
Speaker 3: It is?
Speaker 4: It is now eight pm Pacific in AM Eastern and
Speaker 4: then and then replay us going into Mitch and Paul h.
Speaker 1: So you guys are on like four or five consecutive
Speaker 1: times through the night. Yes, okay, yes, And then Kelly
Speaker 1: Bidlin at Kelly Bidlin that's k E.
Speaker 3: L L E.
Speaker 1: Y B y D l O N on Twitter. Uh.
Speaker 1: He is uh the producer number nine of a numbers
Speaker 1: game week days here on the network. Really really is
Speaker 1: my sidekick, for God's sakes, He's on the air all
Speaker 1: the time. In fact, if you Parson out, Kelly talks
Speaker 1: more night Uh and then will say that and what's
Speaker 1: your what's your show on the weekend when.
Speaker 7: Beds Sunday with Dustin Sweetelson, Yes, three to seven Eastern.
Speaker 1: Thank you, Wes, thank you Kelly. Listening to long Shots tonight.
Speaker 1: Good luck with all your bets. The Adya the Masters
Speaker 1: from Augusta