Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day
Speaker 1: for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment.
Speaker 1: Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and
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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. In nineteen
Speaker 1: ninety nine, Mike Mayo got hiss butt fired at a
Speaker 1: major bank. It was a testament to all of us
Speaker 1: in the racket about independent securities analysis. The culmination of
Speaker 1: that was the Forestall Award, John's the number one award
Speaker 1: at the CFA and I can't tell you. In twenty thirteen,
Speaker 1: the symbolism of Mike Mayo fired one evening for being independent,
Speaker 1: winning top ward CFA on ethics. This is a guy
Speaker 1: to speak to, mister Solomon.
Speaker 2: The star analyst at whilst Fango. Now my Mayo joins
Speaker 2: us Mike Wander for to catch up with you, sir.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about this story and the criticism around the
Speaker 2: Goldman Sachs leader. Do you get the sense this is
Speaker 2: strategic or deeply personal.
Speaker 3: Thanks for having me on and thanks for bringing up
Speaker 3: the CFA, which is the pre eminent accreditation for a
Speaker 3: financial analyst. And I actually go back to those roots
Speaker 3: to think how should I approach the situation about the
Speaker 3: CEO Goldman Sachs and the differentiation between the external metrics
Speaker 3: which are good, and potential internal metrics which might not
Speaker 3: be so good. The issue here is I'm not seeing
Speaker 3: these metrics. I don't have these internal metrics. The company
Speaker 3: said they've not had any unusual turnover in the partner
Speaker 3: ranks relative by the numbers, So I'd say, look, what
Speaker 3: it comes down to is winning cures.
Speaker 4: All.
Speaker 3: Goldman's had recent performance issues. They've missed expectations two of
Speaker 3: the last three quarters, and when that happens, other issues
Speaker 3: moved more to the four And if I were to
Speaker 3: summarize the three issues, it'd be the three fs. One
Speaker 3: is the consumer expansion that was a debacle. Second is
Speaker 3: the cultural change David Salman running Goldman more like a
Speaker 3: public company almost twenty five years after they went public.
Speaker 3: And the third would be his character and some attacks
Speaker 3: and the press on that character. So I'll go wherever
Speaker 3: you'd like to go.
Speaker 5: Well, Mike, I want to go to what has to
Speaker 5: happen in order for the character issues to not be
Speaker 5: center stage anymore. In other words, has he lost the
Speaker 5: room to such degree that they need to have blowout
Speaker 5: performance and growth in an area that has yet to
Speaker 5: be identified.
Speaker 3: Well, going back to the CFA the basis on how
Speaker 3: I should perform my job. It is the job of
Speaker 3: a CEO to up hold the reputation of the firm.
Speaker 3: But that is important. But when we talk about upholding
Speaker 3: the reputation in the firm, we're talking about being number
Speaker 3: one in advisory for the last twenty years. For talking
Speaker 3: about Goldman growing capital markets twice the pace of Peers
Speaker 3: over the last you know, three or so years. We're
Speaker 3: talking about reputation of the firm to their multinational companies,
Speaker 3: to governments, to their most important investors. So where it
Speaker 3: matters the most, they are upholding the reputation the firm
Speaker 3: based on the business that they're doing. But could there
Speaker 3: be a point where there's enough upheaval that, you know,
Speaker 3: the media the tail wags the dog. I suppose it's possible.
Speaker 3: It's just not going to happen, you know, right now.
Speaker 5: Mike, you said the turnover that we've seen the partner
Speaker 5: ranks hasn't been that unusual. And yet we're hearing about
Speaker 5: Lloyd Blankfeind being brought back to the firm and really
Speaker 5: going after David sala Men having some pretty strong words
Speaker 5: for him.
Speaker 6: What do you make of that?
Speaker 5: I mean, do you think that just basically there are
Speaker 5: a lot of bitter people talking to members of the media.
Speaker 3: You know what I really think is happening here. I
Speaker 3: think it's and I don't have the numbers back this up,
Speaker 3: so I'm just going to get ballpark numbers. But I
Speaker 3: think it's like, you know, traders who are earning six
Speaker 3: million dollars a year who got paid down last year
Speaker 3: to four million dollars a year or something like that,
Speaker 3: just zip code wise. I mean, they had a blowout
Speaker 3: year in twenty twenty one. Last year was a bad
Speaker 3: year for Goldman. People were paid down when they had
Speaker 3: great years. They were partly subsidizing this failed foray in
Speaker 3: consumer banking, and they're they're upset and they're taking their
Speaker 3: and they probably go to the CEO, and the CEO
Speaker 3: it's like, look, when it's the Goldman tax CEO have
Speaker 3: been a warm and fuzzy person David Solomon. I mean,
Speaker 3: you have to have strong opinions to change your culture
Speaker 3: like he's doing while trying to generate profitability. I think
Speaker 3: a lot of people or are upset about what they're
Speaker 3: getting paid. They're going to the press with it.
Speaker 1: Mike, you're expert on board analysis. We have a new
Speaker 1: board member, mister Montag obviously Goldman Sex Timber over at
Speaker 1: Bank of America. He returns. You've got someone like David
Speaker 1: vinnie Or who ran the ship in two thousand and
Speaker 1: seven under crisis, color the board makeup and decision right now?
Speaker 1: How do you look at the Golden Sex board.
Speaker 3: Tom, You know, I've been a critic of bank boards,
Speaker 3: and it probably represents corporate boards, you know, more generally,
Speaker 3: I feel like they're soft. They don't really hold managements accountable,
Speaker 3: they don't listen to shareholder concerns. So when I look
Speaker 3: at Goldman Sachs board more than anything else, like any
Speaker 3: bank board, I think their push for change is probably
Speaker 3: not that much. That's the reality of corporate America. And
Speaker 3: you know, I've wrote my book about it and I
Speaker 3: still see it. And you know, there's some other banks today.
Speaker 3: I'm happy to talk about where I think there's much
Speaker 3: more need for change than than at Goldman Sachs. So uh,
Speaker 3: you know, and wait in mind, and I do want
Speaker 3: to address your Lloyd blank Bind comment. You know, he
Speaker 3: Lloyd's lif find started to push a consumer seven years
Speaker 3: ago and he amplified and it took up, you know,
Speaker 3: all the discussion in the room almost in the meetings.
Speaker 3: And now David thom A doubled down on consumer, but
Speaker 3: it was Lloyd originally. And Lloyd probably doesn't like to
Speaker 3: be you know, tainted with some of these you know,
Speaker 3: three billion dollars of losses they're getting out of you know,
Speaker 3: the Marcus business, aside from the deposits. So you know,
Speaker 3: his hands aren't completely clean in this whole situation either.
Speaker 2: Mike, we've got about sixty seconds left. If we could
Speaker 2: finish by asking you appointed question that would be good.
Speaker 2: How would this stock respond if that headline dropped across
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg that he was out.
Speaker 3: I don't think the stock would go up. The fact
Speaker 3: that stock might even go down. So that's remember I
Speaker 3: called for the to have the City Group CEO fired
Speaker 3: back around after the global fancier crisis, and I think
Speaker 3: the stock went up that day, and that was a
Speaker 3: good moment, and we've seen that other places where the
Speaker 3: CEO goes. But if David Solomon were to be fired today,
Speaker 3: I think the stock would actually go down because it
Speaker 3: don't be like, Wow, you're running the company based on
Speaker 3: media reports as opposed to financial results. And by the way,
Speaker 3: when I talk to investors, investors aren't saying, oh, get
Speaker 3: rid of David Tobam. They were really asking the questions
Speaker 3: You're asking, Hey, does the media impact their performance? I'd
Speaker 3: say no so far. Having said that David Salmon has
Speaker 3: to earn his job every day, and so I can
Speaker 3: come back in three months or six months and he
Speaker 3: doesn't get the job done, I'll be on the other side.
Speaker 2: We appreciate your opinion. Mike, as always of welsh Sonco,
Speaker 2: Sebastian Phase joined us now head a global modi asset
Speaker 2: and CIO at t ro Price. Sebastian, you can be
Speaker 2: one of the five this morning. What's behind that bond
Speaker 2: market move higher?
Speaker 4: Inflation expectations? Look, we're all seeing inflation coming down. But
Speaker 4: when I look at my one year break events this
Speaker 4: morning on my Bloomberg, I see one point five six
Speaker 4: percent to me, that is too low. If I think
Speaker 4: of the risk to inflation, it's not to the downside,
Speaker 4: it's to the upside. And Jonathan, you nail the reason.
Speaker 4: It's the commodities oil prices being up quietly twenty percent.
Speaker 4: You need energy to produce goods and services, and I
Speaker 4: think sometimes we underestimate the impact on even core inflation
Speaker 4: of higher energy prices. So I'm not saying inflation's coming
Speaker 4: back to the levels we see, you know, a year ago,
Speaker 4: a year and a half ago. But to me, I
Speaker 4: look at this in the risk is to the upside,
Speaker 4: and that's what the bond market, even in the long end,
Speaker 4: is starting to smell.
Speaker 1: Sebastian and for radio, this is my most important chart
Speaker 1: right now. It's a Bloomberg total return chart. This is
Speaker 1: the all in soup the nuts chart as well. And
Speaker 1: in the bottom line here is we're about ready to
Speaker 1: break down to new price weakness off the carnage of
Speaker 1: two or three years ago. And I just, you know,
Speaker 1: I just don't know what to say here about price down.
Speaker 1: If we get the bond market to break down to
Speaker 1: lower prices, what does that do to equities.
Speaker 4: It's always a risk to equities because you're revaluing and
Speaker 4: year today, equities have rallied on the price earnings ratio
Speaker 4: and the evaluation and that is sensitive to rates, and
Speaker 4: earnings are kind of soft down seven percent year over year,
Speaker 4: So it is a risk to equities tom But one
Speaker 4: thing I want to say is this isn't the time
Speaker 4: to panic about duration. If anything, now you have a
Speaker 4: better entry point on our fixed income portfolios. We have
Speaker 4: added duration this year. It is a quote unquote and
Speaker 4: I use quotation marks hedge against a real growth shock.
Speaker 4: We know that the most anticipated recession in history is
Speaker 4: becoming the most delayed recession in history. But there's pressure
Speaker 4: building in the system. So here's what we're doing in
Speaker 4: our fixed income portfolios. We're not panicking about duration right now.
Speaker 4: I think we have duration and we're pairing it with credit.
Speaker 4: I call this the magic Barbelle. But I'm getting nine
Speaker 4: percent total yield out of high yield. So I like
Speaker 4: my fixed income factors to be diversified. And now you
Speaker 4: get paid. You get paid for the protection of treasuries.
Speaker 4: If you get a growth shock, it won't protect you
Speaker 4: for an inflation shock, which is kind of we're not
Speaker 4: talking about an inflation shock but inflation pressures, which is
Speaker 4: kind of what you're seeing now. But I think you
Speaker 4: have to step back and look at what's the greater
Speaker 4: risk right now? Is yes, sell off in stocks.
Speaker 6: Okay a second, let me try to make sure that
Speaker 6: I understand this.
Speaker 5: You're saying that the risk with inflation is an upside
Speaker 5: surprise that it could reaccelerate, and yet you're leaning into
Speaker 5: duration because it's not inflation shock, it's just an inflation
Speaker 5: grind higher.
Speaker 6: What is the difference?
Speaker 4: So we're using duration as a hedge to a growth shock.
Speaker 4: We're not going fully overweight duration. To me, the risks
Speaker 4: to inflation is three six months. It starts speaking back up,
Speaker 4: but at the end of the day, if you take
Speaker 4: a six to eighteen month horizon, So Lisa, it's a
Speaker 4: difference in horizon here. You do want some hedges in
Speaker 4: your portfolio, and where do you get those hedges right now?
Speaker 4: You get them a little cheaper than you have in
Speaker 4: the past. So it's nuanced, right. It's just diversifying the
Speaker 4: different risk factors.
Speaker 5: And one thing that you talked about is the commodity
Speaker 5: is pressure to really fuel some of the reinflation, and
Speaker 5: this comes as we take a look at China and
Speaker 5: the potential threats there, the risks to growth if let's
Speaker 5: say there is a reversal in oil prices and that
Speaker 5: comes with a lot of weakness. How do you rearrange
Speaker 5: the time where you're preferring high yeald ponds over equities,
Speaker 5: where you're preferring sort of some Barbell approach, to really
Speaker 5: being a more conservative kind of acid allocator right now?
Speaker 4: Yeah, look at the spread for high yield it's not
Speaker 4: particularly attractive, although if you adjust it for forecasted default risks,
Speaker 4: it's not bad. But I'm an asset allocator. I really
Speaker 4: care about the total yield, and Lisa, the comparison with
Speaker 4: the earnings yield is really advantageous. Eightieth ninetieth personile in
Speaker 4: favor of high yield bonds. I'm getting nine percent out
Speaker 4: of high yield bonds globally, and the earnings yield is
Speaker 4: down to say, five percent on stocks. That's spread right
Speaker 4: now is really advantageous. We're not forecasting a really hard
Speaker 4: landing wave of defaults, even if things slow down in China,
Speaker 4: which they are so on a relative basis. Look, we
Speaker 4: always invested in stocks, but we're close to neutral right now.
Speaker 4: Slightly underway. If we're going to add the portfolio on
Speaker 4: the risk side, might as well do it high yield.
Speaker 1: Sebastian very quickly your acclaimed book, which is folks. I
Speaker 1: can't say enough about this effort by Sebastian bay Page,
Speaker 1: A really sophisticated effort. Do I want to be diversified
Speaker 1: or do I want to be more acutely focused right now?
Speaker 4: Look, I think diversification remains critically important when you're going
Speaker 4: through a regime shift, Tom, which is what we're going through.
Speaker 4: You've talked about this on the show. Gravity is back
Speaker 4: in financial markets. We have a ton of cash in
Speaker 4: the sidelines. So you don't want to go all the
Speaker 4: way to cash right and just miss the upside of
Speaker 4: stocks in the long run. I don't think you want
Speaker 4: to go all the way to stocks right now, and
Speaker 4: there are other opportunities. Look, Tom, let's just think about valuations. Okay.
Speaker 4: The tech sector's trading at a price earnings ratio of thirty.
Speaker 4: So let's say you missed the rally. Do you want
Speaker 4: to chase that momentum or maybe wait to buy the dip.
Speaker 4: You actually have a third option which speaks to diversification,
Speaker 4: which is to get in parts of the markets that
Speaker 4: have really not participated. Quality small caps price earnings ratio
Speaker 4: of thirteen, that's hard recession level. Emerging market stocks price
Speaker 4: earnings ratio at eleven. We mentioned hyal bonds yields at
Speaker 4: nine percent, you know, so the energy sector trading at
Speaker 4: twelve pe ratio. So there are ways to get in
Speaker 4: the market where you're not just chasing the momentum. And
Speaker 4: I saw I call this the third option. Either you
Speaker 4: chase the momentum, wait for the dip, or take a
Speaker 4: diversified approach to your question, Tom and get in parts
Speaker 4: of the market that haven't participated. Energy em in a
Speaker 4: very high yield, higher yield in the high yield bond space.
Speaker 4: So there are opportunities to get into and diverse five.
Speaker 2: Sebastian, Always enjoy your insights, sir, good friend of this program.
Speaker 2: Sebast I page there a t row price.
Speaker 1: We are going to migrate now to an importan conversation.
Speaker 1: This is our conversation of the day on foreign exchange,
Speaker 1: the limits paper of the system. Else a Lingos brings
Speaker 1: serious ECV and EU credit to RBC Capital. Marcus Global
Speaker 1: head of Foreign Exchange Strategy, also open question right now,
Speaker 1: what is your biggest mystery in sleepy August. You're the
Speaker 1: only one in Europe working what's your biggest mystery right now? Forward?
Speaker 1: In foreign exchange?
Speaker 7: I think you touched on it earlier Tom at the
Speaker 7: top of the hour. The uncertainty around what's going on
Speaker 7: in China, and part of the struggle for us as
Speaker 7: outside is trying to understand the reality on the ground
Speaker 7: when there's actually been a move away from sharing information.
Speaker 7: The underlying GDP data, the kind of the breakdown of
Speaker 7: components just isn't there. And on top of that, we
Speaker 7: just don't have the visibility onto these trouble developers and
Speaker 7: asset managers balance sheets.
Speaker 1: Does China bring in instability? I was talking about euro
Speaker 1: yen to one sixty and through a strong euro week,
Speaker 1: en dollar yen back up towards one fifty. Can you
Speaker 1: see that instability out there? Given the events in China?
Speaker 7: And I think people are reluctant to take positions. As
Speaker 7: you kind of mentioned, it's the middle of August. A
Speaker 7: lot of investors we speak to have just shut up shop,
Speaker 7: particularly if they've had a good summer so far. They're
Speaker 7: just not seeing the opportunities out there. You know, you've
Speaker 7: got effex very much in a tight range. I mean,
Speaker 7: you're a dollar to the PIP is almost exactly where
Speaker 7: it was a month ago. And even when we do
Speaker 7: attempt to get breakouts, as we did earlier in July,
Speaker 7: it just doesn't seem to follow through. And I think
Speaker 7: people are really struggling with that dynamic at the moment.
Speaker 7: Just leaves us all looking at carry trades and selling
Speaker 7: well ELSA.
Speaker 5: If everybody's just basically on the beach right now, does
Speaker 5: that mean when everybody comes back you start to see
Speaker 5: more concern about the potential for contagion from China and
Speaker 5: all of the potential in financial instability in certain sectors.
Speaker 7: I think we need to see bit more information. I mean, clearly,
Speaker 7: the fact that you're seeing developers missing interest payments on
Speaker 7: their bonds has people concerned. But more than anything, you know,
Speaker 7: we've been in this situation. I mean, I could go
Speaker 7: back ten years when people were panicking about the big
Speaker 7: China cliff and suddenly growth was going to collapse, And
Speaker 7: there've been people that have cried wolf one too many times,
Speaker 7: and so markets are just naturally reluctant to believe that
Speaker 7: this time it could be happening for real. What I
Speaker 7: think we're missing in order to get bigger trends is
Speaker 7: a bit of global divergence. You know, at the moment,
Speaker 7: it feels like a lot of the themes are affecting
Speaker 7: a lot of countries in a very similar fashion. If
Speaker 7: I look at developed markets in particular, whether it's the
Speaker 7: UCB or the FED, or the Bank of Canada, the OBBA,
Speaker 7: they all seem to be in very similar positions. We
Speaker 7: need that to break down and diverge in order to
Speaker 7: get those trends.
Speaker 5: But aren't we seeing that in the actual data, Elsa,
Speaker 5: and I'm talking about, for example, the US and Europe
Speaker 5: Germany in particular.
Speaker 6: We are seeing that divergence.
Speaker 5: We're just not seeing it when it comes to a
Speaker 5: currency that seems to have flatlined because everyone's on vacation.
Speaker 7: I mean, it's a great question, Lisa, because even more
Speaker 7: so than the currency, what I find really perplexing is
Speaker 7: if you look ahead, you look at twenty twenty four expectations,
Speaker 7: there's still this widespread consensus that the UR area is
Speaker 7: going to outperform the US, and cyclically that doesn't seem
Speaker 7: to ad up At the moment. I mean, yes, the
Speaker 7: FED has delivered more tightening, but the US also delivered
Speaker 7: a whole lot more fiscal stimulus. And actually the titening
Speaker 7: delivered by the US is not that much more than
Speaker 7: the UCB for the local realities on the ground. Though.
Speaker 7: I do think eventually we will get that unexpected break
Speaker 7: lower in euro dollar. That's not the consensus. Everybody's looking
Speaker 7: for it to trade up at one thirteen by year ed.
Speaker 7: I just think we may need to wait for the
Speaker 7: autumn for that to really start taking hold.
Speaker 1: I need to rip up the script. Also, Lingos so
Speaker 1: and I can do this with you. There's a number
Speaker 1: of ways to look at the fiction known as the
Speaker 1: Russian ruble, dollar, ruble, euro ruble, and also a basket
Speaker 1: of ruble. I'm just going to go to the headline drama. Also,
Speaker 1: Lingos of dollar is compared to Russian ruble through one hundred.
Speaker 1: I just did a lord regression of it back twenty years.
Speaker 1: Ecuse me back to seven. Also, what do I make
Speaker 1: of the newly weakened ruble? What does its signal? Given
Speaker 1: the lack of flows, the lack of information that we.
Speaker 7: Have, and it's very clear that if this is a
Speaker 7: war of attrition that puts Russian a weaker state visa
Speaker 7: vi the rest of the world. You know the fact
Speaker 7: that it relies on foreign currency, hard currency in order
Speaker 7: to buy whether it's military goods and so on, and
Speaker 7: then it relies on help from partners.
Speaker 1: You know, it.
Speaker 7: Relies on high oil prices, and we've seen a wild
Speaker 7: trying to break higher, but it's not really following through.
Speaker 7: And so I do think that in terms of that
Speaker 7: war of attrition, it does all else equal just put
Speaker 7: Russian in a slightly weaker spot. Can you read anything
Speaker 7: in terms of capital flow? Is almost sadly not. You know,
Speaker 7: it's a kind of controlled currency at the moment.
Speaker 1: But it's unraveling. I'm not going to say it's a
Speaker 1: Zimbabeli equivalent because it's not. Or you know, even the
Speaker 1: complexities of the Turkish lira, how do they respond to
Speaker 1: it or does no one care?
Speaker 7: I don't think there is a response as such. I
Speaker 7: mean it's it's a very different economy to even say
Speaker 7: the Turkish lera, where it's an economy turkysh an economy
Speaker 7: that's dependent on commodity imports. I mean being in a
Speaker 7: position where you're a commodity exporter does put you in
Speaker 7: a position of relative strength, and so there will always
Speaker 7: be some hard currency coming in, and so in that sense,
Speaker 7: the currency the ruble is less of a signal for
Speaker 7: the underlying strength or state of the Russian economy.
Speaker 2: A Selenos, thank you of ABC Capital Markets and the
Speaker 2: latest in the FX market.
Speaker 1: Speaking of an immoderate Capitol Hill. Henrietta Trace joins now
Speaker 1: economic policy research director Data Partners, who was on fire
Speaker 1: last week, get a dragger back here this morning to
Speaker 1: talk about exactly where we are, Henrietta, is a broad statement.
Speaker 1: Is the debt debate now the same old, same old
Speaker 1: you've heard for years? Or is there something new about
Speaker 1: our worry of our debt and our debt.
Speaker 8: I had a really interesting conversation with some senior counsel
Speaker 8: on the Hell late last week that I would share
Speaker 8: with y'all. The conversation around the debt and a government
Speaker 8: shut down in federal spending has obviously been with us
Speaker 8: for a couple of months now, since the Republicans came
Speaker 8: into control of the House. And that's great, you want
Speaker 8: to see that conversation, But the tension that we see
Speaker 8: between a small faction of House Republicans and the moderate
Speaker 8: or sort of middle ground of the House Caucus and
Speaker 8: certainly the Senate is so far apart that the dialogue
Speaker 8: on the hell now is not about reducing federal spending
Speaker 8: as a way to get over this impast that we're
Speaker 8: going to face at the end of September. It's about
Speaker 8: who can we impeach, can we get money for the border,
Speaker 8: what do we need to do to draw attention to immigration?
Speaker 8: And it is a dialogue that is really markedly important
Speaker 8: for your exact question, because it's not about the debt,
Speaker 8: it's not about deficit spending. It's about whatever they can
Speaker 8: get from a political perspective to score away.
Speaker 1: If there are tea leaves out there, like something in
Speaker 1: a state fair, Okay, fine, iower name another state, or
Speaker 1: if it's something like the vote in Ohio last week
Speaker 1: that we talked about last week, is there a point
Speaker 1: where the middle ground of the two parties put the
Speaker 1: extremes in their place and we move forward to some
Speaker 1: kind of true political discourse.
Speaker 8: You know, I don't think we're going to see that
Speaker 8: until we get into the general election, and probably not
Speaker 8: if Donald Trump is at the top of the ticket
Speaker 8: on the Republican side. The opportunity for Democrats to stress
Speaker 8: the extremism of the right when it comes to abortion
Speaker 8: and the inability to move beyond it from the right
Speaker 8: during primary season means at least for the next six
Speaker 8: to eight months, we're going to be in these hyperpartisan camps.
Speaker 8: And the issue of abortion, as you suggest from Ohio
Speaker 8: last week, is so telling. It moves not just Democratic
Speaker 8: voters to get out, but the pendulum swing that we
Speaker 8: see from Republican voters, just for example in Arizona, is
Speaker 8: a four percentage point swing of the voter base from
Speaker 8: twenty sixteen when they elected Trump to twenty twenty when
Speaker 8: they elected Biden, and then the twenty twenty two mid terms.
Speaker 8: That is abortion. It has moved the needle so substantially
Speaker 8: that in tight margin states like Ohio, like excuse me,
Speaker 8: not Ohio, but Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, in those states
Speaker 8: the margin is so razor thin. But the pendulum swing
Speaker 8: that you're suggesting as they turn from partisan politics towards
Speaker 8: the moderate center is really the tell. And that's where
Speaker 8: you see the shift from Republican voters independent voters. Sixty
Speaker 8: three percent of FOAM or seventy even in some cases
Speaker 8: believe that abortion should be legalized. This is a voter
Speaker 8: issue that has tremendous impact in red states and blue
Speaker 8: Ohio would be a perfect example in Kansas last year.
Speaker 2: First debate nine days away. Let's set the stage. Who's
Speaker 2: on it?
Speaker 8: That's a great question. I don't know that Trump's going
Speaker 8: to be on it. I think that based off how
Speaker 8: he's treating these indictments, he clearly wants to be at
Speaker 8: center stage, So it looks to me a little bit
Speaker 8: like he should be there. I would recommend, if I
Speaker 8: was on his campaign, not to go because his next
Speaker 8: closest competitor, rond De Santis, is the one to beat.
Speaker 8: He's at about fifteen percent in the polls, which makes
Speaker 8: him far and away the front runner of the sort
Speaker 8: of second tier candidates. Everybody else is locked in sort
Speaker 8: of those low single digits. So I would say to Trump,
Speaker 8: you know, stay home if you can avoid the spotlight.
Speaker 8: Let Rhonda Santis take the last couple of hits. The
Speaker 8: potential for the Gavin Newsom Randa Stantis debate in November
Speaker 8: eighth to be canceled. If this can't be pulled off,
Speaker 8: is something that I think is really important to watch
Speaker 8: and Lisa to the conversation we had last week. It
Speaker 8: really opens the door for a third, another candidate that
Speaker 8: maybe is not in the race right now, to jump in.
Speaker 6: And that's something a lot of people are looking for.
Speaker 5: When you talk about Trump being a pro conventional candidate,
Speaker 5: he is not, as we all know, and he probably
Speaker 5: isn't listening to conventional advice. At a time where he
Speaker 5: stopped by the Iowa State Fair, broke with convention pretty directly.
Speaker 5: He wasn't supposed to be there, and he did this
Speaker 5: to try to basically lambast his opponent, Rond de Santis,
Speaker 5: and people applauded him, and they booed Rond de Santis.
Speaker 6: How long can this playbook work?
Speaker 5: Where people don't need Donald Trump to flip burgers and
Speaker 5: to hold babies and to go around and shake people's hands.
Speaker 5: He can just swoop in for about an hour and
Speaker 5: basically give a stump speech, fly off, and everybody says,
Speaker 5: we like that he's unconventional.
Speaker 1: It's a TV.
Speaker 8: Show and he's an expert at it. I mean, it
Speaker 8: makes for excellent television. The booing gets more stories than
Speaker 8: the actual candidates. Whether that's Mike Pence, Chris Christi or
Speaker 8: Rondi Santis. I mean it's the playbook works. I would
Speaker 8: say keep doing it.
Speaker 2: Does wrapping eminem work Henrietta? Does that help?
Speaker 8: No, it's just not that I would like tother maybe
Speaker 8: not directed from the internet. I would love to see
Speaker 8: that for him. I don't give a lot of credit
Speaker 8: credence to that.
Speaker 2: Heacy, and thank you.
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