1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: The United States of France. Americans like to think of 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 1: themselves as being great risk takers, rolling back frontiers and 3 00:00:09,080 --> 00:00:13,280 Speaker 1: imbibed since birth with this spirit of entrepreneurship. And to 4 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:16,680 Speaker 1: an extent, that's true, and it attracts people like me. 5 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:21,640 Speaker 1: Yet what if, what if despite the technology success stories 6 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 1: that have at least superficially transformed society, there's an increasing 7 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 1: desire for safety. What if we're just becoming an old, cranky, 8 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 1: more risk averse society. What if we're more like Europe 9 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:39,960 Speaker 1: and those poster children for sclerosis France, Germany and Italy. 10 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 1: Welcome to The Bloomberg Benchmark, a happy podcast about the 11 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 1: global economy. I'm Daniel Moss, executive editor for Global Economics 12 00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 1: in Washington Today, and I'm Sky Landman and economics editor 13 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 1: with Bloomberg in Washington too. So let's be sure we 14 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 1: have that right, Dan. We have a society known for entrepreneurship, 15 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 1: we have technological prowess and progress that we've made in 16 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:15,800 Speaker 1: the past fifty years, hundred years, even just in the 17 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 1: last ten years, and yet we're talking about our society 18 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:24,400 Speaker 1: becoming so sclerotic that we're comparing it to France. Technology 19 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:27,759 Speaker 1: may have just released our Inner Status, and our guest 20 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 1: today is going to explain how Tyler account chair in 21 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:35,960 Speaker 1: economics at George Mason University and author of The Complacent Class, 22 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:40,319 Speaker 1: The self Defeating Quest for the American Dream, and full disclosure, Tyler, 23 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 1: you're also a Bloomberg View columnist. That's correct. Well, welcome 24 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:47,200 Speaker 1: to the show. And do I have that right? Our 25 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 1: great technological progress, matching music, matching dates, film choice, political 26 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 1: and social preferences of our neighborhood, that's all a bit misleading, 27 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 1: actually doesn't lead to progress, but ultimate only a design 28 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 1: for statis Do I have that right? Yes? American culture 29 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 1: has lost a lot of its dynamism or at the 30 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 1: point where so many parents they're afraid to even let 31 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 1: their children play outside. We medicate ourselves at much higher rates, 32 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 1: we move across state borders at much lower rates. That's 33 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:22,800 Speaker 1: fallen by about fift from its peak. Our productivity and 34 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:25,200 Speaker 1: even innovation are down. And if you look at our 35 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 1: best innovations like Netflix or Amazon, they're so often about 36 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: finding a way just to stay at home. So are 37 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 1: these kinds of innovations that you're talking about, are they 38 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 1: just not on the level of say the lightbulb or sewers. 39 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:42,520 Speaker 1: You know, the kind of arguments that Robert Gordon has 40 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 1: also made. Is it the pace of innovation that's slowing? 41 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 1: Is it the level of innovation? What is it? It's 42 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:51,920 Speaker 1: both the pace and the kind of innovation that have 43 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 1: been slowing. So many recent innovations. They're about enjoying your 44 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 1: leisure time better, which is great, but the actual productivity 45 00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:03,200 Speaker 1: of our economy is down significantly. Even at work, people 46 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 1: spend a decent chunk of their time checking social media, 47 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 1: and in so many areas, ranging from getting around this 48 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 1: country to infrastructure, we're actually moving slightly backwards. So it's 49 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:18,640 Speaker 1: a misconception that our society, even Silicon Valley, is really 50 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 1: a source of great innovation anymore. Well, Silicon Valley is 51 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 1: a source of great innovation, But I think the point 52 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 1: is we don't have so many more such sources in 53 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 1: today's America, and in the past we used to have 54 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:33,360 Speaker 1: a lot of them. You ask people what's a big 55 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 1: dynamic company today, they might say Uber. Uber is nice. 56 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 1: I took an Uber to get here, but it's really 57 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 1: just a slightly abused I wasn't abused, but I felt 58 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 1: this is nice. It's a slightly quicker, taxi cab a 59 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 1: little bit cheaper. When that's the big deal in your economy, 60 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 1: you're not moving forward that quickly, right. So you spend 61 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 1: quite a bit of time in the book talking about 62 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 1: dating services, music services and the degree of specialization and 63 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 1: seemingly infinite choice with in these narrow bands of specialization, 64 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 1: and that that's symptomatic of the broader problem. Can you 65 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 1: expand on that a bit well. I think music is 66 00:04:09,040 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 1: a good example of how near infinite choice leads to 67 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 1: a kind of stasis. I can access almost any recorded 68 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:18,360 Speaker 1: music I want to using my iPad. One can go 69 00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 1: to YouTube, their Spotify, iTunes, so many ways to do it. 70 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:25,119 Speaker 1: You can listen to to what you want when you want. 71 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:27,480 Speaker 1: But the end result of that is that people are 72 00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 1: now spending much less money, much less time supporting new music. 73 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 1: And I think we've become less creative. In any one moment, 74 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 1: it feels good because you're hearing what you want, but 75 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 1: over time, again we're cutting into our stock of creativity. 76 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 1: So technology has kind of walled us off. It hasn't 77 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:49,599 Speaker 1: unleashed us on the world. It's imprisoned us within our 78 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:54,159 Speaker 1: own prejudicial choices. But in a fairly comfortable prison, of course, 79 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 1: So keep that in mind. This is happening because we 80 00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,280 Speaker 1: wanted it to happen, But I also think it's going 81 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 1: to prove dange risk in the longer run. So what 82 00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 1: is the underlying thread that connects all these UH vignettes, 83 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 1: these economic vignettes that you bring together in your book 84 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:15,720 Speaker 1: that have resulted in what you call the complacent class. 85 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:19,080 Speaker 1: One thing that came to mind for me is another 86 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:22,159 Speaker 1: show that we had recently. We have the historian Walter 87 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:26,760 Speaker 1: Scheidel from Stanford University. He was he has a new 88 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:30,919 Speaker 1: book out that talks about how inequality grows except in 89 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:37,159 Speaker 1: times when there's a total war or or black death, 90 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:41,040 Speaker 1: or you know, something pretty depressing like that. Is this 91 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 1: a natural function of our society just being stable and 92 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:48,080 Speaker 1: without a major war for a long time. It's a 93 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:51,919 Speaker 1: natural phenomenon. You see related things happening in Japan in 94 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 1: most of Western Europe. So it's because security and safety 95 00:05:56,920 --> 00:06:00,359 Speaker 1: they really do feel good, right well? Yeah, and also 96 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 1: compare you compare the situation. You look at China. You 97 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 1: talk about some of the innovation there. You profile the 98 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:11,320 Speaker 1: founder of Ali Baba UH briefly in your book, but 99 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:14,200 Speaker 1: isn't the reason for some of the activity we've seen 100 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:17,359 Speaker 1: in China a function of the fact that that society 101 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 1: was closed off for forty some years before. They've really 102 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 1: unleashed a wave of of economic opening and innovation in 103 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 1: the last two or three decades. Well, for sure, some 104 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:32,240 Speaker 1: of China is just playing catch up, but a lot 105 00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 1: of their dynamism now it's actually on the frontier. If 106 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 1: you look at we Chat, it's better than any messaging 107 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 1: system that's come from Silicon Valley. If you look at 108 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 1: electronic payments, the Chinese are way ahead of us. In biomedicine, 109 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:48,080 Speaker 1: they may end up ahead of us quite soon. So 110 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 1: China is not just copying and growing fast because it 111 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 1: was poor. It's remarkable how well China has used its 112 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:56,839 Speaker 1: dynamism in a number of areas actually to leap to 113 00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 1: that frontier. China is like the United States circa and I, 114 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:04,279 Speaker 1: and yet China is facing its own demographic challenges. You 115 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:07,160 Speaker 1: talk a little bit about the demographic challenges facing the 116 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:10,760 Speaker 1: US in the book. What many people listen to this 117 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 1: podcast might not know is that China's labor force is shrinking, 118 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:21,680 Speaker 1: It's population is aging. You know, this is not this 119 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 1: sort of low cost ten percent growth perannum nirvana anymore. Sure, 120 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:29,800 Speaker 1: China may itself face a lot of these problems, but 121 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 1: they have one thing that we don't. They have so 122 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 1: many talented people in the countryside still who haven't been 123 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 1: mobilized yet, and that may help them forestall these processes 124 00:07:40,400 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 1: quite a bit. And it's not that you're saying the 125 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 1: US economy is doing terribly right, not at all. Unemployment 126 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 1: is low, things are fairly stable in disease of investment 127 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:54,840 Speaker 1: and share price volatility. Are doing fine, But there's a 128 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 1: long run cost when you start being dynamic and a 129 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:02,280 Speaker 1: eventually you can't pay off your debt and be in 130 00:08:02,320 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 1: the short run when the pie is fixed, your politics 131 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:09,000 Speaker 1: becomes worse and your governance becomes dysfunctional. And believe it 132 00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 1: or not, there are actually some signs of that happening 133 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 1: right now. I'm shocked to hear it. I would never 134 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 1: have guessed. So can you actually go back to a 135 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 1: state or rekindle the dynamism in the US economy Even 136 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 1: if you had a hugely disruptive event like like a war. Uh, 137 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 1: you know, you you still have a lot of these 138 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:36,000 Speaker 1: same trends that are happening you know, you quote the 139 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 1: great sociologist as ease On Sorry in in your book, 140 00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 1: you're talking about how mating has become, you know, a 141 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:48,679 Speaker 1: much less random process than it was in the past. Uh. 142 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 1: You know, we have a lot of technological innovations that 143 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 1: are just we're just not going to go back to 144 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 1: society where you know, we're we're listening to random LP 145 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:02,959 Speaker 1: he's at the music store and trying to decide whether 146 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:06,760 Speaker 1: or not we we like them. Is there really a 147 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 1: way to become a more dynamic economy again? I think 148 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 1: we will have to become dynamic again. Keep in mind, 149 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 1: the least complacent class in this country are the immigrants, 150 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:20,240 Speaker 1: and as long as we keep on taking an immigrants, 151 00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 1: I think we'll have the chance to refresh our own dynamism. 152 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 1: This country tends to do quite well when the chips 153 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:29,440 Speaker 1: really are down and we've exhausted all other options. We 154 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:32,559 Speaker 1: all know the famous Winston Churchill quote America will will 155 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 1: do the right thing when it's gone through every other choice. 156 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 1: So in the medium to long run, I'm very optimistic 157 00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:41,320 Speaker 1: about this country. But I also think the time for 158 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 1: those big bumps has come now, and I'm trying to 159 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 1: give people a framework for understanding why isn't this the 160 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 1: idyllic future or three growth that maybe so many of 161 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:54,320 Speaker 1: us were expecting in the nineties. But we're not going back. 162 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:57,679 Speaker 1: We're not exactly going to be letting a ton of 163 00:09:57,720 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 1: immigrants into the country. We're recording this on the day 164 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:05,960 Speaker 1: that the Trump administration has announced the new revised ban 165 00:10:06,280 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 1: on immigrants from six nations, ban on refugees, or temporary 166 00:10:12,840 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 1: ban if you want to call it. That. Aren't we 167 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 1: moving the direction where if you have to open up 168 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:20,720 Speaker 1: the economy that way, there's just not a political appetite 169 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 1: for it. I don't at all favor that ban, but 170 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 1: I think it's striking actually how weak it is relative 171 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:29,360 Speaker 1: to the overall flow of migration. And the chance of 172 00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:33,280 Speaker 1: getting a big deal immigration reform may possibly be higher 173 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:35,400 Speaker 1: under Trump then say it would have been under a 174 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 1: President Clinton. So we may be taking a pause from 175 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:41,480 Speaker 1: higher levels of immigration. But I don't yet see that 176 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:44,080 Speaker 1: trend as being reversed. Just to get back to this 177 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:48,679 Speaker 1: point about how it may be more likely under President Trump, 178 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 1: then perhaps under President Clinton, is that a Nixon goes 179 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:55,480 Speaker 1: to shawin our analogy you're drawing there, that's a Nixon 180 00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:58,040 Speaker 1: goes to China. Analogy. If Trump would sign off on 181 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 1: a plan, Republicans would have a cover to vote yes 182 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:03,800 Speaker 1: on it. Not quite predicting that, but I think under 183 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:06,200 Speaker 1: Clinton the chance of that would have been close to zero. 184 00:11:06,920 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 1: You had you know, Rubio and Cruz and everyone else, 185 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 1: you know, jumping on top of the idea of the wall, 186 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 1: whereas now there's at least a possible path forward. But 187 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:17,480 Speaker 1: I would say, if we really do cut off immigration, 188 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 1: America's dynamism probably will not recover. Do you detect any 189 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 1: support in the country for a cutting off of immigration 190 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: per se? I mean, you know, it's only last year 191 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:30,840 Speaker 1: that I took the oath, and I guess you know 192 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 1: hundreds of people like me did that. Today, at its core, 193 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:40,440 Speaker 1: there was still sympathy for a strong immigration program. It's 194 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 1: just a discussion about what that program looks like. Do 195 00:11:43,280 --> 00:11:46,080 Speaker 1: I have that right? I agree completely. But imagine we 196 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 1: had another terror attack and it was somehow connected to immigrants, 197 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:53,280 Speaker 1: and we had a skillful executive branch determined to cut 198 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:56,240 Speaker 1: off immigration. Now, as far as I can tell, we 199 00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:58,679 Speaker 1: don't actually have any of those things, but it's not 200 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 1: impossible to think we might get all three, and that's 201 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 1: how it would happen. But my default scenario is we 202 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 1: will go through a major social, political, and possibly even 203 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 1: economic crisis, hit those bumps in the next say, ten 204 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:16,840 Speaker 1: to fifteen years rather rapidly, and basically decide we're going 205 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:19,679 Speaker 1: to do things right once again. And I think we'll 206 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:23,480 Speaker 1: see a more dynamic America which is turning information technology 207 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:26,280 Speaker 1: into all the different parts of its economy and making 208 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:29,560 Speaker 1: most of the economy dynamic, not just your Facebook page. 209 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 1: But that's not right around the corner. Right the world 210 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 1: we're going to live in is going to feel very bad, 211 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:39,160 Speaker 1: look less liberal, possibly involve more foreign conflict, and our 212 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 1: government will appear and indeed not be up to the 213 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 1: task of doing that much about it. So this reminds 214 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 1: me of a couple of themes from other shows that 215 00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:52,080 Speaker 1: we've done. We had Robert Gordon on a few months ago, 216 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:55,640 Speaker 1: and he talked about his book and how and his 217 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 1: research showing that he thinks the best days of American 218 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:01,600 Speaker 1: growth are behind us. Uh. And then on another show 219 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:04,600 Speaker 1: we had Eric Brynilson from m I T on who 220 00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:08,880 Speaker 1: takes an opposite view that maybe we're underestimating the you know, 221 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:12,760 Speaker 1: the productivity the innovations that are out there in Silicon 222 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:16,040 Speaker 1: Valley and how they're going to contribute to our society. 223 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:18,640 Speaker 1: What I'm hearing from you is, you know, in some 224 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:21,880 Speaker 1: ways it's it's a hybrid. You take you take one 225 00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:26,120 Speaker 1: part of Gordon, which is that you know, we we're 226 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:28,280 Speaker 1: not getting as much from innovation as we used to, 227 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:31,200 Speaker 1: and yet you do talk about some of the promise 228 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 1: of technology and if we go through an upheaval in society, 229 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,800 Speaker 1: well we'll get that. Is that fair? Absolutely, the pessimists 230 00:13:38,840 --> 00:13:41,800 Speaker 1: are write about the last eighteen years. The optimists are 231 00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 1: right about the future. Given a choice, I'd rather be 232 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:47,320 Speaker 1: right about the future. You talk a bit in the 233 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:50,480 Speaker 1: book about de Talkville. Now all of a sudden we're 234 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 1: hearing about him from everywhere. Why is he so on 235 00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 1: Vogue these days? He's the deepest theorist of America who's 236 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:03,080 Speaker 1: still relevant, still worth three, still highly readable. So Toaquville 237 00:14:03,160 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 1: produced the you know, the classic portrait of America through 238 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 1: French eyes, through Western European eyes. I think of my 239 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:11,079 Speaker 1: book in a sense as trying to write a portrait 240 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 1: of contemporary America, but through Chinese eyes or the lens 241 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 1: of another emerging economy. How do we look to what 242 00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:20,720 Speaker 1: the world actually is these days, and not just to 243 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:23,480 Speaker 1: a bunch of French bureaucrats, And then I think we 244 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 1: look pretty stagnant and complacent. Do you think more Americans 245 00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 1: should spend more time in their own country? Well, there's 246 00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:34,440 Speaker 1: a distinction between what's good for you individually and what's 247 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:38,880 Speaker 1: good for broader society. Insofar as individuals in America would 248 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 1: take more risk, change more things in their lives, travel 249 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 1: more abroad, I'm quite convinced this will be good for 250 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 1: the country as a whole. But all of that costs money, 251 00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:51,800 Speaker 1: it involves chance, so it's not in every case good 252 00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 1: for those particular individuals. And it's exactly that collective action 253 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 1: dilemma that has gotten us to where we are. You 254 00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 1: talk in your book about the federal budget. You almost 255 00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 1: seem to be describing the budget the structure of it, 256 00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:09,000 Speaker 1: as a micro causum of what ails us. Absolutely, the 257 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 1: federal government budget is becoming more and more of an 258 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:17,360 Speaker 1: insurance company through Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid programs, which 259 00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:20,880 Speaker 1: do serve some very valuable functions, But when they take 260 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:23,320 Speaker 1: up so much of your budget, when so much of 261 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:26,920 Speaker 1: the money we have is locked in, not available for innovation, 262 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 1: not available to spend on the future, not there for 263 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 1: discretionary spending. I feel we're actually making our future riskier, 264 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 1: and that's because there's this political desire for safety, which 265 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 1: ultimately comes from constituents. Correct. But when the next emergency comes, 266 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 1: be it a foreign conflict, North Korea with nuclear weapons, 267 00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 1: a pandemic, whatever it may be, we do not now 268 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:53,600 Speaker 1: have that fiscal freedom and institutional and also ideological flexibility 269 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 1: to respond the way saying earlier America put a man 270 00:15:56,920 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 1: on the moon in seven years time. So back to 271 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 1: Ten's original point, are we still America or is this 272 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:07,479 Speaker 1: country becoming France? Is it already France? We're still America. 273 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 1: France itself is a quirky country, possibly on the verge 274 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 1: of voting for its own strange candidate and disrupting its 275 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:18,480 Speaker 1: own complacency for the worst. I would say, I think 276 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:21,240 Speaker 1: we're trying to be more like Denmark, most of all 277 00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:23,840 Speaker 1: in our cities. But a country of three and twenty 278 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 1: million people with so much ethnic and intellectual diversity can't 279 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 1: do a good job of being Denmark. We need a 280 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:32,720 Speaker 1: new story about the United States. I've only been to 281 00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 1: Denmark once, but Copenhagen strikes me as a very livable city. 282 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:39,280 Speaker 1: It's an extremely livable city. Keep in mind that's not 283 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:42,840 Speaker 1: the country as a whole. But Denmark works as a 284 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:46,440 Speaker 1: small country because it's tightly knit, and ultimately it is 285 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 1: borrowing a lot of protection and also innovation from larger countries, 286 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:53,160 Speaker 1: which is fine. I love Denmark. The United States cannot 287 00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 1: do the same thing. Did you ever watch the Danish 288 00:16:56,440 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 1: political drama Bogan is perhaps my favorite TV show. I've 289 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 1: seen every episode. Okay, so she grapples with this. Burger 290 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:08,399 Speaker 1: Nyborg is the fictional prime minister in Borgan. Borgan is 291 00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 1: the parliament compound in Copenhagen. It's kind of a Danish 292 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 1: West win Now. The hero of the show, Burger Nyborg 293 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 1: grapples with how to square the reality of governing with 294 00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:27,920 Speaker 1: her instinctual social democratic tendencies. Now, looking at how the 295 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 1: show worked out and how you know, the creators of 296 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:34,600 Speaker 1: that show sort of leave it hanging a little bit 297 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:38,520 Speaker 1: at the end, any lessons for us. She's a wise 298 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:40,679 Speaker 1: leader in the show. I think by the end she 299 00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:44,879 Speaker 1: realizes that although she's a social democrat, Denmark has to 300 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:49,120 Speaker 1: be about more than just stability. She realizes how conservative 301 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:51,720 Speaker 1: a lot of her constituents are and that she has 302 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:54,000 Speaker 1: to be PM for the whole country and not just 303 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:58,000 Speaker 1: for her party. But does she succeed in turning around 304 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:01,480 Speaker 1: a malaise that Denmark has its well, its productivity numbers 305 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:05,560 Speaker 1: as does this country. She doesn't because it's so deeply 306 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,520 Speaker 1: dug into all of our societies. There is no single 307 00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:11,600 Speaker 1: magic bullets. In the end, she leaves to be Foreign Minister, 308 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:14,800 Speaker 1: that's correct, looking abroad to do something where she feels 309 00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:17,119 Speaker 1: something can be done. Where can I watch this show 310 00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 1: Netflix or order the discs on Amazon? It's one of 311 00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:23,320 Speaker 1: the best TV shows ever made? Bargain? How many hours 312 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:26,439 Speaker 1: is it? Three seasons? All right, Well, I'll get on 313 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:29,040 Speaker 1: that for for next time when we have our discussion 314 00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:34,800 Speaker 1: of Danish politics and Danish television. Well, Tyler, it's been great. Um, 315 00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:37,680 Speaker 1: I think it's been great. Kind of depressing, but there 316 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:39,720 Speaker 1: is still this hope at the end that you know, 317 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 1: America has this capacity to reinvent itself. I would just 318 00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:46,439 Speaker 1: say the dedication of the book is quote to the 319 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:50,359 Speaker 1: rebel in each of us. So complacency does not reign 320 00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 1: in every regard the dynamism is still there. We simply 321 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:57,040 Speaker 1: need to rediscover it. Tyler, thank you so much for 322 00:18:57,119 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 1: joining us. Thank you, thank you. Benchmark will be back 323 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:02,199 Speaker 1: next week and until then, you can find us on 324 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:05,640 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal, Bloomberg dot com or Bloomberg App, as 325 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 1: well as on iTunes, pocket Casts, and Stitcher. While you're there, 326 00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:11,439 Speaker 1: take a minute to rate and review the show so 327 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 1: more listeners can find us and let us know what 328 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:16,080 Speaker 1: you thought of the show. You can follow me on 329 00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:20,320 Speaker 1: Twitter at at scott Landman, Dan is at at Moss 330 00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:24,240 Speaker 1: Underscore Echo, and our guest is at at Tyler Cowen 331 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:28,520 Speaker 1: CEO w e N. Benchmark is produced by Sarah Patterson 332 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:32,240 Speaker 1: and the head of Bloomberg Podcasts is Alec McCabe. Thanks 333 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:33,600 Speaker 1: for listening, See you next time.