1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,080 --> 00:00:14,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,040 --> 00:00:17,960 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and Rounoto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:18,040 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:24,799 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:28,440 Speaker 2: The jury now has the case. Welcome to the Fastest 7 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:32,960 Speaker 2: Show in Politics, with deliberations now underway in Donald Trump's 8 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:36,800 Speaker 2: criminal hush money trial in New York. We have arrived 9 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:39,360 Speaker 2: as we wait for a verdict. Time Joe Matthew alongside 10 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:42,560 Speaker 2: Kaylee Lines, who's back with us today in Washington on 11 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 2: the Fastest Show in Politics. 12 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:45,840 Speaker 3: It's great to see you. Welcome back. 13 00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 2: Conventional wisdom has been that this will be a quick deliberation, 14 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:51,599 Speaker 2: and we've had some very smart legal minds explained why 15 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 2: they think that, Kaylee. But we're trying not to project 16 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 2: or anticipate. Whatever's going to happen. The way this takes 17 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 2: place will happen live, It'll be unfiltered, and we'll bring 18 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:02,360 Speaker 2: it you as soon as we learn it here on Bloomberg. 19 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 4: Yeah. 20 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:05,199 Speaker 5: In the meantime, though, it is just a waiting game. 21 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 5: None of us know what is happening inside that room. 22 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:11,639 Speaker 2: Pretty remarkable. We did hear from him earlier in court. 23 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:16,039 Speaker 2: No lawmakers that I'm aware of, No Hollywood actors for 24 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:18,399 Speaker 2: that matter. We had Robert de Niro in front of 25 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:21,840 Speaker 2: the courthouse yesterday, which was a strange turn. The Biden 26 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:23,959 Speaker 2: campaign working that out with him. But we did hear 27 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:28,040 Speaker 2: from Donald Trump earlier talking about the rigged trial. 28 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:30,679 Speaker 3: Here's what he said in the lobby of the courthouse. 29 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 4: I would say, in listening to the charges from the judges, 30 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 4: as you know, very conflicted and romas because. 31 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 3: Of the confliction, Very very correct. 32 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 6: Mother Teresa could not beat these judges. 33 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 3: These charges are rigged. The whole thing is rigged. 34 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 2: Mother Teresa could not beat these charges. Let's get into 35 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 2: it with Elizabeth Widra glad to say she's back with us, 36 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 2: a Constitutional account Ability Center president and Supreme Court litigator. 37 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 3: Elizabeth, it's great to have you. 38 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 2: When you hear Donald Trump talk like that, mother Teresa 39 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 2: couldn't beat the rap. Was he convinced by the job 40 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:13,800 Speaker 2: the prosecution did in this trial? 41 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 7: Yes, well, I think you know when people here Trump 42 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 7: claim the trial is rigged and so forth, you know 43 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 7: what I think is really important to remember is that 44 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 7: the people who are deliberating right now, they are the 45 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,800 Speaker 7: ones who are going to decide, not the judge, whether 46 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:35,119 Speaker 7: or not former President Trump will be convicted of these 47 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 7: felony counts or not. This is a jury of everyday Americans, 48 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 7: every day New Yorkers, who are going to listen very 49 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:46,160 Speaker 7: carefully to all the testimony, all the evidence, look at 50 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 7: all the documents, think about the jury instructions that were 51 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:55,000 Speaker 7: given to them. And these everyday Americans are the ones 52 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:58,520 Speaker 7: who are going to be deciding Trump's fate. So when 53 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 7: he says that it's rigged, it's really an attack on 54 00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 7: those Americans, which I think that you know, whether you 55 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 7: support Donald Trump or not, most people have faith in 56 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 7: our jury system. The founders of our country believe very 57 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 7: deeply in the jury as a fundamental part of democracy. 58 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 7: It's something we don't maybe think about that much anymore. 59 00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:20,359 Speaker 7: You know, people maybe will try to get out of 60 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:22,880 Speaker 7: jury service or whatever. But to the founders of the 61 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:27,080 Speaker 7: United States, it was an incredibly important bulwark of liberty. 62 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 7: Those were words that they used to ensure that we 63 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 7: had a country that was ruled by law, that no 64 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 7: one was above the law, including in this case, a 65 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 7: former president, and that no matter how powerful or how 66 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:44,640 Speaker 7: vulnerable you were, your fate would always be left in 67 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 7: the hands of your peers. And here that's what is 68 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 7: going on right now as this jury deliberates. 69 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 5: Well, Elizabeth, also the entire notion that a defendant is 70 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:57,560 Speaker 5: innocent until proven guilty, and that there has to be 71 00:03:57,640 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 5: guilt beyond a reasonable doubt for the jury to actually 72 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 5: convict us any defendant, Donald Trump or otherwise of a 73 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 5: crime that was detailed in the fifty five pages of 74 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 5: jury instructions that Judge Mershawn read out today. What did 75 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 5: you make of the actual instructions themselves? Took almost an 76 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 5: hour and a half for him to get through them, 77 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 5: speaking to the idea that there are some complicated elements 78 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 5: to the things that they are considering in that room. 79 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 7: For sure, and during instructions in any case are always 80 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:29,359 Speaker 7: going to be incredibly important, and there are There's a 81 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:32,159 Speaker 7: lot of what the jury was instructed on today that 82 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:35,520 Speaker 7: is part of the course in any criminal case. So 83 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 7: the judge is going to be talking to them about 84 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:40,840 Speaker 7: exactly what you just said, what reasonable doubt means, you know, 85 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 7: how much certainty? Obviously, we really don't know anything in 86 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:49,360 Speaker 7: life with a complete one sense of certainty, so what 87 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 7: is beyond a reasonable doubt. The judge also will give 88 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:58,599 Speaker 7: a very standard instruction about, you know, certain types of evidence, 89 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:02,240 Speaker 7: what certain aspects of the laws at issue of this 90 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 7: case mean. And then there were the instructions that were 91 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 7: more specific to this case, about the credibility and corroborating 92 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:13,760 Speaker 7: evidence of witnesses, and then documentary cooperative evidence that was 93 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:17,440 Speaker 7: heard in the court. So it's important that these instructions 94 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 7: were very detailed, and they were. And you know, one 95 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 7: thing that's unique about New York is that apparently the 96 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 7: jurors do not get to take those instructions back with 97 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 7: them to the jury room. So I think that might 98 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:32,599 Speaker 7: mean that we might get some more questions than usual 99 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 7: from the jury as they are going about weighing this 100 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:40,119 Speaker 7: evidence against the law and following the instructions that they're given. 101 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 2: I want to ask you something. I want to be 102 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:46,559 Speaker 2: careful with this, Elizabeth, as we talk about the jury. 103 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 2: There was reporting today in a couple of places. The 104 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:54,040 Speaker 2: Bulwark first to report a skeptical juror who maybe Trump friendly, 105 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 2: has appeared to nod along in accordance with the defense. 106 00:05:57,120 --> 00:05:59,640 Speaker 2: Lit up when jd. Vance walked in the room smiled 107 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 2: when my Cohen was in the throes of cross examination. 108 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 2: The New York Times has gone so far as to 109 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 2: identify the number of that juror today. Is this dangerous 110 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 2: and what does it mean potentially for a deadlock jury? 111 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:16,039 Speaker 7: Well, I think that, you know, we certainly need to 112 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 7: be careful about not attacking the jury. And you know, 113 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 7: Judge Marshawn has been very adamant throughout this process and 114 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 7: in the contempt order that was issued against Donald Trump 115 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 7: for violating the gag order about attacking witnesses and the jury. 116 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 7: So it's incredibly important that that jurors be allowed to 117 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 7: do their job without fear of intimidation. 118 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 8: You know. 119 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 7: Certainly, Look, the jury was selected by both the prosecution 120 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:47,239 Speaker 7: and defense, so one would assume that the defense got 121 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 7: some jurors in the panel that they thought would be 122 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:55,280 Speaker 7: favorable to them. That's, you know, part of this adversarial 123 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:57,720 Speaker 7: process that we have when we have a jury trial. 124 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:00,600 Speaker 7: So you know, the defense tries to pick that they 125 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 7: think will vote in favor of their client, and the 126 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:10,400 Speaker 7: prosecution looks for jurors who will weigh the evidence barely 127 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 7: which they think will lead to a conviction. And so, 128 00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 7: you know, I think that if you know the reporting 129 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 7: about some of the jurors, there was someone who followed 130 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:22,600 Speaker 7: Trump on truth social. You know, probably a lot of 131 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:25,800 Speaker 7: people don't have truth social unless they are in some 132 00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 7: ways favorable to Donald Trump. But I suppose there are 133 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:32,320 Speaker 7: always outliers. But I think one thing that's important to 134 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:38,600 Speaker 7: remember is that the jury is a collaborative, deliberative body, 135 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 7: and that's one of the things that makes it so unique. 136 00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:43,480 Speaker 7: You need to have unanimity, and so part of that 137 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 7: is the jurors coming together, reasoning things out together, working 138 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 7: together to try to come to a result. There are 139 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 7: instances of hung juries. That's where one juror is or 140 00:07:56,200 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 7: perhaps more than one is a holdout. But often we 141 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 7: do see you animous verdict because there is that kind 142 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,240 Speaker 7: of pressure to come to a group decision. 143 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 5: If though there is still that one holdout, Elizabeth, if 144 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:12,520 Speaker 5: we can just game this forward, knowing we have no 145 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:14,560 Speaker 5: idea what the outcome here is going to be, and 146 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:17,200 Speaker 5: there is a hung jury and therefore a mistrial, what 147 00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 5: recourse does the prosecution have? Does everything just end there? 148 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:25,080 Speaker 5: Could they get another attempt, another swing at this before 149 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:27,680 Speaker 5: the presidential election, knowing how hard it was to get 150 00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:29,960 Speaker 5: this case to go to trial the first time around, 151 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 5: let alone the many others that don't look like they 152 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 5: will within the next six months. 153 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 7: Yeah, basically I think that this would be the end 154 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 7: of the road. Then if there is a hung jury, 155 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 7: you know, it's it's an issue that I think the 156 00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:45,800 Speaker 7: judge will be trying to get jurors to come to 157 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 7: a unanimous decision, whether that's acquittal or conviction. You know, 158 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 7: you always want a jury to come to a decision, 159 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 7: and that's that's really what the process is aimed at doing, 160 00:08:57,120 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 7: whether it's through the jury on their own or through 161 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:03,680 Speaker 7: the judge working with the jury to see if they 162 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 7: can come to an agreement. And again, that's not pressure 163 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:09,080 Speaker 7: to come to a conviction, it's a pressure to come 164 00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 7: to a unanimous agreement because you want the jury to 165 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 7: really render a verdict, whether it's a verdict of acquittal 166 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 7: or a conviction. 167 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 2: Well, i'll tell you what, we're in the wait here 168 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 2: at this point, Elizabeth, and we're trying not to speculate. 169 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,080 Speaker 2: I just wonder, though the longer this takes, who you 170 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:31,200 Speaker 2: see it helping. Does a lengthy deliberation actually help the 171 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 2: prosecution in this case. 172 00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 7: You know, I think this is so. The common wisdom 173 00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 7: has always been that, you know, a quick verdict is 174 00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 7: usually a guilty verdict, and the longer it goes on, 175 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:46,000 Speaker 7: the more likely it's going to be either a hung 176 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 7: jury or an acquittal. You know, that has certainly, especially 177 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 7: in high profile cases, that that conventional wisdom has gone 178 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 7: out the window. The OJ Simpson verdict, for example, was 179 00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 7: quick and obviously an acquittal. I think that again, that 180 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:07,439 Speaker 7: conventional wisdom might not necessarily hold because, look, the case itself, 181 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 7: no matter who the defendant is, is one that has 182 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:12,520 Speaker 7: a lot of moving parts, So the jury is going 183 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:15,319 Speaker 7: to want to take their time and be very deliberative 184 00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 7: about it. But also, these are human beings who know 185 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:23,160 Speaker 7: that they are dealing with a historic, truly momentous and 186 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 7: unprecedented situation here with the former president of the United 187 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 7: States facing criminal conviction, and that is a serious matter. 188 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:36,000 Speaker 7: So I think they're going to take their jobs very seriously. 189 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 7: So I think that if they take their time to 190 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:41,560 Speaker 7: make sure they get it right, that in this case 191 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 7: perhaps is not as indicative of whether it's going to 192 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:46,480 Speaker 7: be an acquittal or a conviction as it might be 193 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:48,840 Speaker 7: in the run of the mill case. But I do think, 194 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 7: you know, if we're looking at going into next week, 195 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:56,320 Speaker 7: you know, then we're going to be looking very closely 196 00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 7: at what questions are coming out of a jury room 197 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 7: to try to get a sense of where the jury is. 198 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 7: Those questions I think will be very interesting to watch 199 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 7: and will be read as tea leads of what the 200 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 7: jury is thinking. 201 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 5: Surely, well, we're less than two hours in so far. 202 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:15,560 Speaker 5: We'll see how long this ultimately takes. Elizabeth Wider, a 203 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:19,839 Speaker 5: Constitutional Accountability Center president and Supreme Court litigator, thank you 204 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:21,960 Speaker 5: so much. We have no time frame, Joe, as to 205 00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:24,320 Speaker 5: how long it will be before we actually get a 206 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 5: verdict from this jury. What we do know, though, is 207 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 5: that verdict is going to be coming well before not 208 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:32,840 Speaker 5: just the presidential election, but the Republican Convention, which of 209 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 5: course is in July. All of this is running into 210 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:36,560 Speaker 5: very interesting. 211 00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:38,679 Speaker 2: It's incredible to think that we're in the throes of 212 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 2: a campaign here and as Donald Trump waits word on 213 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:44,679 Speaker 2: his fate. Joe Biden leaving the bubble today to go 214 00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 2: to Pennsylvania, talking about some hard issues that have been 215 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:50,320 Speaker 2: dogging him on the campaign trail, including Israel. 216 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:50,840 Speaker 1: Yeah. 217 00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:53,800 Speaker 5: Absolutely, and perhaps the spotlight is even more sharply on 218 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 5: the question of Israel after the events of the last 219 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 5: several days with forty five people killed in Rafa, though 220 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 5: the White House maintains that Israel has not in fact 221 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 5: crossed it's so called redline at least at this point. 222 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:07,160 Speaker 5: What we're hearing from Israel though today is that they 223 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:09,760 Speaker 5: think this fighting is going to last for a significantly 224 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:13,319 Speaker 5: longer period of time seven months to be exact, getting 225 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 5: us to the end of the year. Ian Marlow is 226 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:18,920 Speaker 5: with US now. He is a senior reporter covering diplomacy 227 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:22,560 Speaker 5: for US here at Bloomberg. So Ian, we obviously are 228 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:25,720 Speaker 5: hearing science from Israel that they do think that defeating 229 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:29,320 Speaker 5: himas ultimately is going to take a significantly longer period 230 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:31,200 Speaker 5: of time. At the same time, it feels that the 231 00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:33,480 Speaker 5: patience of the Biden administration when it comes to their 232 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:36,439 Speaker 5: effort in Rafa, is going increasingly thin. So how much 233 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 5: longer can Israel continue with the continued support of the 234 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 5: US in terms of still getting everything that the US 235 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:44,080 Speaker 5: is currently providing. 236 00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:48,480 Speaker 9: Yeah, it's a good question. I mean, I think especially 237 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 9: this week, everyone is asking that question, and I think 238 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 9: we got a little bit of a preliminary answer from 239 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 9: the Biden administration, which is there's. 240 00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:58,520 Speaker 3: Still more leeway here. 241 00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 9: They still think to some degree that the only thing 242 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 9: riskier than continuing on the current Israel policy is changing 243 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:07,760 Speaker 9: the Israel policy. So, I mean you saw a little 244 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:10,839 Speaker 9: bit of a flavor of that when they paused that 245 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 9: heavy bombs shipment a couple of weeks back. Now, it 246 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:19,839 Speaker 9: infuriated Republicans, It annoyed people on the left because they 247 00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 9: wanted more. They wanted like a bigger halt to all 248 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:26,719 Speaker 9: weapons that were going and it blew up in their 249 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:31,320 Speaker 9: face in Israel, where net Nyahu almost looked like stronger 250 00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:33,000 Speaker 9: at the end of the day because he was able 251 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 9: to kind of be a little bit more defiant and 252 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:38,080 Speaker 9: sort of vow to press into Rafa even more so 253 00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:41,240 Speaker 9: to some degree, there's a host of bad options here 254 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 9: right now for the US, and I think it's clear 255 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 9: that Israel has not done enough to sort of go 256 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:52,960 Speaker 9: over that red line. The difficulty for the US now, 257 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:56,719 Speaker 9: you know, with Hamas reconstituting in North Gaza, I think 258 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 9: people thought maybe Rafa would be the end of the war, right, 259 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:02,000 Speaker 9: this would be once they pushed into Rafa. 260 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 3: That would be it. 261 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 9: They would get hamas leadership and it would be over. 262 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:08,640 Speaker 9: But that's not the case. It looks like this is 263 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:11,360 Speaker 9: going to go on for you know, potentially into the 264 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:14,440 Speaker 9: next term of whoever wins in November. And so I 265 00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:17,320 Speaker 9: think the longer this drags on, the more difficult it 266 00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:18,240 Speaker 9: is for the administration. 267 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:18,680 Speaker 3: For sure. 268 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 2: Well, of course the administration is spending a couple of 269 00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:23,720 Speaker 2: plays right now. The other would be Ukraine, or one 270 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 2: other would be Ukraine. Interesting to see the Deputy Treasury 271 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:30,720 Speaker 2: Secretary in Kiev this morning while Yadiyama, on his first 272 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 2: visit to Kiev, spoke with a short time ago about 273 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 2: sanctions on Russia. 274 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 3: Let's listen to what he had to say. 275 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 2: Well, have you respond, Here's the secretary. 276 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:42,880 Speaker 4: In the United States, and our allies and partners are 277 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:46,520 Speaker 4: going to be open to sanctioning any company or individuals 278 00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 4: that provide material support to Russia's military industrialized complex, because 279 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:53,040 Speaker 4: we want to make sure that Russia doesn't have access 280 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 4: to the goods they need to fight the war they 281 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:56,080 Speaker 4: want Here in Ukraine. 282 00:14:57,240 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 2: We're going to have our full conversation for our viewers 283 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 2: and listeners a little bit later on this hour with. 284 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:03,440 Speaker 3: The Deputy Treasury Secretary. 285 00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 2: Does his visit suggest that sanctions have been a failure 286 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 2: so far? Is it time for secondary sanctions? 287 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 9: That's a good question. I mean, I think the issue 288 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:16,880 Speaker 9: here really, I mean, what he's talking about is China, right, 289 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:21,760 Speaker 9: I mean, Chinese companies. The Chinese government has been willing 290 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:25,080 Speaker 9: to provide that sort of support to Russia in a 291 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 9: way that I think caught a lot of US officials 292 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 9: off guard. I think American officials in the early days 293 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 9: of the war, especially after Ukraine mounted a kind of 294 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 9: valiant defensive Kiev, that this was you know that Russia's 295 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 9: the sanctions were going to cripple Russia's and military industrial 296 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:43,520 Speaker 9: complex and that would be it. But over time we've seen, 297 00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 9: with Chinese support this Russia's being able to reconstitute their 298 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:50,400 Speaker 9: base and they've made a lot of gains. And I 299 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:53,640 Speaker 9: think that's really worrying for US officials, And I think 300 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 9: there's been a lot of warnings. We got those warnings 301 00:15:55,960 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 9: from Janet Yellen when she visited China. Blincoln when he 302 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 9: went I was on that trip, kind of echoed that message, 303 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 9: and this is another sort of reassertion of that I 304 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 9: think probably serving to remind China here that if they 305 00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:14,160 Speaker 9: don't clamp down a little bit on some of those companies, 306 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:15,720 Speaker 9: the US is going to do it for them. 307 00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 3: Really. Great to have you back. Ian. 308 00:16:17,400 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 2: When he's not traveling at the Secretary of State, we 309 00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:21,760 Speaker 2: try to get him here at the table in Washington. 310 00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Senior reporter covering diplomacy, Ian Marlow. Great to have 311 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:27,080 Speaker 2: you and Kaylee. These are some of the stories we're 312 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 2: going to be following over the course of the rest 313 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 2: of this hour. We'll hear this conversation I had earlier 314 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 2: with Wally Adiamo a bit later on. 315 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can 316 00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enroun 317 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 1: Oo with the Bloomberg Business ad. You can also listen 318 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 319 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 320 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 2: With News Today, the Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adiamo has 321 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 2: touched down in Kiev, his first trip to Ukraine now 322 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 2: as part of the administration's efforts to shore up Ukraine's 323 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:10,680 Speaker 2: economy and of course support Ukraine in its war with Russia. 324 00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:14,919 Speaker 2: He is the administration's point person, the Treasury's point person 325 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:19,639 Speaker 2: on sanctions, which is partly what brought him to Kiev 326 00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:22,080 Speaker 2: this week, and I had an opportunity to spend some 327 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 2: time talking with him, first, knowing that air raid sirens 328 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:29,119 Speaker 2: were blaring in Kiev just moments before he joined us 329 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio. I started by asking him 330 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:35,479 Speaker 2: about the mood on the ground here. 331 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:36,720 Speaker 3: He is the moon. 332 00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 4: The capital today is one of urgency in terms of 333 00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:42,640 Speaker 4: doing everything they can to defend their country. And I've 334 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 4: been impressed by the brave men and women here in 335 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:49,120 Speaker 4: Ukraine and the fact that they are committed to fighting 336 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 4: for their freedom and doing everything they can to build 337 00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:54,800 Speaker 4: an economy and to build a free and democratic country. 338 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 4: And I'm here because the United States wants to be 339 00:17:57,560 --> 00:18:00,359 Speaker 4: their partner in doing exactly that. In a day to 340 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:02,120 Speaker 4: talk to them about sanctions, I've been able to talk 341 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:04,320 Speaker 4: to them about our economic support and the ways in 342 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:06,359 Speaker 4: which we can make sure that the United States and 343 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 4: our allies and partners stands with the brave men and 344 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:10,919 Speaker 4: women of Ukraine. 345 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:13,439 Speaker 2: You said just yesterday on your tour in Kiev that 346 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 2: an unacceptable amount of weapons components are still getting into Russia. 347 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:21,200 Speaker 2: There's a sentiment that sanctions are simply not working. As 348 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:24,399 Speaker 2: the Treasury's point man on sanctions, does your trip confirm that? 349 00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:29,520 Speaker 4: My trip confirms that we need to do more to 350 00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:32,399 Speaker 4: make sure that our sanctions continue to stop Russia from 351 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 4: being able to get the goods they need to build 352 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:36,600 Speaker 4: the weapons that they want. What we know is that 353 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 4: the Kremlin has charged their intelligence services with trying to 354 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:43,399 Speaker 4: get around our sanctions, and we are concerned that Russia 355 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:47,680 Speaker 4: is getting access to key component parts, particularly from China 356 00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:50,920 Speaker 4: and other countries, that are allowing them to build these weapons. 357 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:53,119 Speaker 4: And what I'm here to do in Kiev is to 358 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:56,679 Speaker 4: talk to my counterparts about the new tools we're considering 359 00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:59,200 Speaker 4: to try and go after the ability of the Kremlin 360 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:02,080 Speaker 4: to do just that. Fundamentally, we can't do this alone 361 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 4: in the United States. We need to do with our 362 00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 4: allies and partners. And that's why I'm heading from here 363 00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:08,359 Speaker 4: to Germany to give a speech and talk to my 364 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:11,560 Speaker 4: German counterparts about the importance of us acting together to 365 00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 4: stop those components from getting to Russia. 366 00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 2: Well, we're looking forward to that speech in Berlin. Will 367 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 2: you announce secondary sanctions against those responsible for those components 368 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:22,400 Speaker 2: getting into Russian weapons. 369 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:26,920 Speaker 4: So I'm not going to preview any actions that we're 370 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:28,679 Speaker 4: going to take, but what I will say is that 371 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:30,920 Speaker 4: I'm going to talk about the fact that in the 372 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,879 Speaker 4: United States and our allies and partners are going to 373 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 4: be open to sanctioning any company or individuals that provide 374 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:41,960 Speaker 4: material support to Russia's military industrialized complex, because we want 375 00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:43,720 Speaker 4: to make sure that Russia doesn't have access to the 376 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:45,960 Speaker 4: goods they need to fight the war they want here 377 00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 4: in Ukraine. 378 00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:49,720 Speaker 2: Well, I know that there are a few components to 379 00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:55,200 Speaker 2: this that also include unlocking money from frozen Russian assets. 380 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:57,640 Speaker 3: I know Treasury Secretary. 381 00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:59,679 Speaker 2: Janet Yellen is working on this right now with our 382 00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:03,120 Speaker 2: G seven allies to use those proceeds for Ukraine. When 383 00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:07,600 Speaker 2: can Kiev plan to get that money? 384 00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 4: It's important to give people context. When the war started, 385 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:15,840 Speaker 4: the United States and our allies and partners immobilized two 386 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:18,800 Speaker 4: hundred and eighty five billion dollars of Russians assets that 387 00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 4: were held around the war, a war chest that they 388 00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 4: had set up for this particular situation so they could 389 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:26,520 Speaker 4: use that to conduct the war that we were able 390 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 4: to mobilize. Now we're looking at ways to unlock those assets. 391 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:32,120 Speaker 4: Only five billion of them are in the United States, 392 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:35,159 Speaker 4: but collectively over two hundred billion are in the G 393 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:37,880 Speaker 4: seven and our countries are working together to think about 394 00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 4: ways in which we can unlock the value of that 395 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:43,679 Speaker 4: for the benefit of the Ukrainian people. Secretary Yellen at 396 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:46,280 Speaker 4: the g soun Finance Ministry to work with their counterparts 397 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:48,440 Speaker 4: to set out a number of options that are now 398 00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:50,040 Speaker 4: going to be given to leaders who are going to 399 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:52,119 Speaker 4: meet in June. And we look forward to those leaders 400 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:54,840 Speaker 4: when they meet in June, giving us political direction in 401 00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:57,159 Speaker 4: terms of how we can unlock that value so that 402 00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:59,439 Speaker 4: we can get that money to Ukraine so they can 403 00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,919 Speaker 4: invest that money and rebuilding the infrastructure that Russia is 404 00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 4: destroyed and in defending their country. 405 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:09,160 Speaker 2: Well, talking about recovery here and rebuilding. You spent time 406 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 2: earlier today at a roundtable at Kiev's School of Economics. 407 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,800 Speaker 3: What was your message to the room? 408 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:19,639 Speaker 4: So I think the most important thing for me was 409 00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:22,680 Speaker 4: how that roundtable started. And it started with them giving 410 00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,960 Speaker 4: me a tour of their bomb shelters, because today for 411 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:28,960 Speaker 4: almost any school that operates anywhere here in this country, 412 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:31,560 Speaker 4: they have to have a bomb shelter, which is unacceptable 413 00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 4: that young people have to live in a world where 414 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:37,159 Speaker 4: their education is conditioned on the idea of having access 415 00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 4: to those shelters. But those young people were focused on helping, 416 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:45,879 Speaker 4: helping to think through two things, One how sanctions can 417 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:49,680 Speaker 4: be used to slow down Russia's ability ability to build 418 00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:51,879 Speaker 4: the weapons that they want, but also on how they 419 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,520 Speaker 4: can build a successful economy here in Ukraine. And I 420 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:57,200 Speaker 4: had a chance to talk to them about the things 421 00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 4: in the United States and their allies and partner are 422 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:02,199 Speaker 4: new to support them in both of those efforts, and 423 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:04,239 Speaker 4: it was impressive to see these young people who are 424 00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:07,680 Speaker 4: focused on those issues and knowing that over time those 425 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,280 Speaker 4: same young people are going to be contributing to the 426 00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:13,280 Speaker 4: growth of the economy here in Ukraine and to the 427 00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 4: growth of their democracy as well. 428 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 8: Well. 429 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,080 Speaker 2: We can't talk about sanctions, sir, without talking about oil. 430 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:21,560 Speaker 2: And it does seem that Phase two of the oil 431 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:26,159 Speaker 2: price cap does not seem to be costing Moscow the 432 00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:29,720 Speaker 2: extent to which it was expected to. How can the 433 00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:31,119 Speaker 2: Treasury Department get to this? 434 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:37,040 Speaker 4: So I think the keyword you said there was cost. Oftentimes, 435 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:39,280 Speaker 4: when we focus on the price cap, we focus on 436 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:43,040 Speaker 4: the revenue side and the cost of a barrel of urals. 437 00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:45,600 Speaker 4: But the reality is that Russia's cost of went up 438 00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:48,400 Speaker 4: significantly due to the price cap. Before the price cap, 439 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,679 Speaker 4: Russia was largely selling their oil to cheap places and 440 00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:55,160 Speaker 4: using the G seven services to do so. Today, the 441 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:58,120 Speaker 4: cost of selling Russian oil has won up significantly because 442 00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:00,480 Speaker 4: they've got to buy new tankers because we went after 443 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:02,200 Speaker 4: some of the tankers that they're shipping the oil in. 444 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:04,480 Speaker 4: They've had to build up their own ecosystem to sell 445 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 4: that oil, which has been more expensive for them. And 446 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:08,600 Speaker 4: our goal is to make sure that in addition to 447 00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:13,280 Speaker 4: reducing their revenues, we significantly increase Russia's costs so that 448 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,840 Speaker 4: ultimately they have less income to give to the Kremlin 449 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,280 Speaker 4: to fight this war. But what the Kremlin is proving 450 00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:22,240 Speaker 4: to us every day is that they are indifferent as 451 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:25,480 Speaker 4: to revenue. They are focused almost exclusively on building a 452 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:28,439 Speaker 4: wartime economy. And the best symbol of this is the 453 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:31,520 Speaker 4: fact that when President Putin replaced a defense minister, he 454 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,199 Speaker 4: replaced it with an economic official who's going to be 455 00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:37,240 Speaker 4: focused on making sure that the Russian economy produces one 456 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,520 Speaker 4: thing and one thing only, which are the weapons that 457 00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:41,800 Speaker 4: will help support this war, and our goal has to 458 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:43,439 Speaker 4: be to make sure that they don't have the goods 459 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:44,920 Speaker 4: they need to build those weapons. 460 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:47,200 Speaker 3: I have less than a minute, sir. 461 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:51,479 Speaker 2: You're talking about sanctions and Russia's economy in Kiev. 462 00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:52,840 Speaker 3: That's why we're together here. 463 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,200 Speaker 2: It was some time ago that US sanctions were supposed 464 00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,560 Speaker 2: to grind Russia's economy to a halt. We have not 465 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:01,719 Speaker 2: seen that happen, at least in the way that it 466 00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:02,440 Speaker 2: was designed. 467 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:03,120 Speaker 3: Well. 468 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:06,159 Speaker 2: The announcements will the tools that you're rolling out this 469 00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:09,680 Speaker 2: week in Ukraine and in Germany finish the job. 470 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:14,320 Speaker 4: So it's important for us to think about how we 471 00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:16,800 Speaker 4: measure success when it comes to sanctions, which are a tool, 472 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:19,720 Speaker 4: and the way that we measure that is on Russia's 473 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,000 Speaker 4: ability to get access to the goods that they need 474 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:24,600 Speaker 4: to fight the war that they want it is, and 475 00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:26,960 Speaker 4: from our standpoint, the key thing that we have to 476 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:29,199 Speaker 4: do there is to go after the companies and the 477 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,439 Speaker 4: individuals who are providing them with those goods. That is 478 00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:34,360 Speaker 4: the way that we are going to judge our success 479 00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:36,679 Speaker 4: is if Russia has fewer weapons to be able to 480 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:38,960 Speaker 4: fight their war in Ukraine and we're able to provide 481 00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,840 Speaker 4: the Ukrainians with the goods and the military equipment they 482 00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:42,920 Speaker 4: need to defend themselves. 483 00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:47,360 Speaker 3: That's the Deputy Secretary of the Treasury. 484 00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:51,040 Speaker 2: While the ADIEMO with us live earlier from Kiev. 485 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:56,480 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 486 00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,600 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Epocarplay and then 487 00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,320 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business at Listen on demand wherever you 488 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 489 00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:13,120 Speaker 2: As we dig through primary results today, not a lot 490 00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:15,879 Speaker 2: of people had their eyes on Texas last night, at 491 00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:19,560 Speaker 2: least in the sense of the presidential primary cycle, but 492 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:23,280 Speaker 2: where there were some very important races primary runoffs that 493 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:25,760 Speaker 2: a lot of folks are trying to connect the dots 494 00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,959 Speaker 2: on here and tell a trend story, because that's what 495 00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:33,520 Speaker 2: we do in journalism. It's not what Kyle Condick does, though, 496 00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:37,600 Speaker 2: he gives analysis on real results, and he's with us 497 00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:41,480 Speaker 2: right now from Sabado's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia. 498 00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:43,680 Speaker 3: Kyle, it's great to see you. A lot of the. 499 00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,600 Speaker 2: Headlines this morning. We're trying to gauge the extent to 500 00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,639 Speaker 2: which Texas that we're looking at here has moved to 501 00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:54,840 Speaker 2: the right has moved to maga. Yet we see Congressman 502 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:59,120 Speaker 2: Tony Gonzalez fending off a challenge from his right. 503 00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:00,920 Speaker 3: What's your takeaway? 504 00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 6: The race ended up being super close. He won by 505 00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,400 Speaker 6: a little over a point. And you know, Gonzales, I mean, 506 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:10,200 Speaker 6: I don't even necessarily know if you can you can 507 00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:13,880 Speaker 6: describe many or any members of Congress as actual kind 508 00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,919 Speaker 6: of centrists or moderates. Tony Gonzalez is a little bit 509 00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:20,840 Speaker 6: closer to the center than many other House Republicans. He 510 00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:24,240 Speaker 6: backed some gun control measures after the horrible shooting and 511 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:26,639 Speaker 6: Valde a couple of couple of years ago, which is 512 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:30,040 Speaker 6: in his district. He also was against sort of a 513 00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:34,040 Speaker 6: more kind of right wing border control bill. Gonzales was 514 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:37,160 Speaker 6: supported by House Republican leadership. He had a money advantage 515 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:39,720 Speaker 6: in this race against the kind name Brandon Herrera, sort 516 00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,000 Speaker 6: of a YouTube star and is known from being kind 517 00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:45,440 Speaker 6: of very pro gun. So you know, I mean, look, 518 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,520 Speaker 6: I mean, in Republican primaries, you're you're generally better off 519 00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,560 Speaker 6: being the more right wing candidate, even running against an incumbent. 520 00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,639 Speaker 6: Incumbents very rarely lose House primaries, And here I have 521 00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 6: an instance of House incumbent just hanging on by the 522 00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:57,760 Speaker 6: skin of his teeth. 523 00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:01,640 Speaker 2: Well, yeah, there's a brand in Herrera. To your point, 524 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,320 Speaker 2: they call him the ak guy. And this had so 525 00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 2: much to do with Uvaldi and the way Tony Gonzalez 526 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:12,160 Speaker 2: voted following the shootings, but just four hundred and seven 527 00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:15,960 Speaker 2: points separated them. To your point, Kyle, we can't really 528 00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:18,040 Speaker 2: call this a big win for the establishment, can we? 529 00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:19,440 Speaker 4: No? 530 00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:22,320 Speaker 6: I don't think so. And look, I mean, you know, 531 00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:25,199 Speaker 6: actually we're at about the halfway point in terms of 532 00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:27,840 Speaker 6: the total number of congressional seats that have had primaries 533 00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:31,359 Speaker 6: so far. In fact, actually that district was it's about 534 00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:33,080 Speaker 6: two hundred and twenty or so. Out of the four 535 00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:36,159 Speaker 6: and thirty five districts. Only one incumbent has lost, and 536 00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:40,560 Speaker 6: that was in Alabama. Because of redistricting, two Republican incumbents 537 00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:44,280 Speaker 6: were basically put in the same district. So without redistricting 538 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:46,960 Speaker 6: you probably wouldn't have any House incumbents who have lost 539 00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,959 Speaker 6: primary so far. But there were some close calls, and this, 540 00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:51,560 Speaker 6: of course was an extremely close call. 541 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:55,720 Speaker 2: This race to take on Henry Quaar in the twenty 542 00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,600 Speaker 2: eighth districts is one that has a lot of people's 543 00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:02,200 Speaker 2: eyes on, certainly in part due to mister Kuahar's legal 544 00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:05,320 Speaker 2: challenges at the moment, how important will this result be 545 00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:08,600 Speaker 2: with Jay Furman winning the right to take on Henry Quaar. 546 00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:13,560 Speaker 6: You know, House Republicans really prioritized this race in twenty 547 00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:17,600 Speaker 6: twenty two, and also Quaar had, you know, left wing 548 00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:20,639 Speaker 6: primary challenge. It's kind of a similar situation to what 549 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:24,320 Speaker 6: happened to Gonzales and Quare one two really tough primaries 550 00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:27,359 Speaker 6: in both twenty twenty and in twenty twenty two against 551 00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,120 Speaker 6: a more left wing challenger, and Quaar ended up winning 552 00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:32,560 Speaker 6: fairly easily in twenty twenty two, despite the fact that 553 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:36,040 Speaker 6: House Republicans put in a lot of money and effort 554 00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:39,040 Speaker 6: in that district. They basically gave Quaar a pass here 555 00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:41,520 Speaker 6: in twenty twenty four, and yet you have this pretty 556 00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:44,680 Speaker 6: serious indictment of Quaar. But I don't know if National 557 00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:49,200 Speaker 6: Republicans are all that excited about their nominee in Texas 558 00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:51,880 Speaker 6: twenty eight, this time against Quaar. So that one is 559 00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:54,200 Speaker 6: sort of it's on the periphery of the competitive map, 560 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:58,080 Speaker 6: but it doesn't seem like a super competitive race. But again, 561 00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:00,680 Speaker 6: you've got a candidate running under a certain indictment. 562 00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:02,680 Speaker 3: So yeah, I think. 563 00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:06,680 Speaker 2: Watch it absolutely and we will be I don't know 564 00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:10,000 Speaker 2: to what extent you're focused on the State House, Kyle, 565 00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:13,480 Speaker 2: but the Republican Speaker of the State House in Texas 566 00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:17,040 Speaker 2: survived a primary challenge by a Trump backed candidate. What 567 00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,680 Speaker 2: extent does MAGA have a hold on the Republican Party 568 00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:22,040 Speaker 2: in Texas or not? 569 00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:25,600 Speaker 6: I mean, look, I think it's the Speaker of the 570 00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:30,360 Speaker 6: House in Texas has been maybe a little bit, you know, 571 00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:32,280 Speaker 6: or maybe not as far to the right as many 572 00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:34,440 Speaker 6: other Texas Republicans are, and of course that has led 573 00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:39,120 Speaker 6: to some to some to some primary trouble. The speaker 574 00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:42,360 Speaker 6: survived that. My understanding is that some of his allies, though, 575 00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:45,280 Speaker 6: ended up losing. So maybe you see a leadership change 576 00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,680 Speaker 6: there with you know, the next time the Texas State 577 00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:50,080 Speaker 6: House meets that. It is interesting that I think Texas 578 00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:54,680 Speaker 6: is legitimately getting more competitive, and yet the Republican Party there, 579 00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:56,600 Speaker 6: if anything, is sort of moving more towards the right. 580 00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 6: I think we've seen this in like Arizona, for instance, 581 00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:01,600 Speaker 6: which is which is a state that really has become 582 00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:06,280 Speaker 6: a battleground recently, and instead of sort of maybe moving 583 00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:09,320 Speaker 6: a little bit more toward the middle. Sometimes you see 584 00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:12,280 Speaker 6: these parties kind of double down on being more kind 585 00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:15,440 Speaker 6: of ideologically extreme, and I wonder if maybe that helps 586 00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:20,440 Speaker 6: spur along democratic growth in Texas. But again, Texas is 587 00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:23,520 Speaker 6: definitely still a Republican leaning state, both in the context 588 00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:26,720 Speaker 6: of Ted Cruzen's reelection bid coming up here and also 589 00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:27,720 Speaker 6: in the presidential race. 590 00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:31,640 Speaker 2: Spending time with Kyle Condick from Sabado's Crystal Ball at 591 00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:33,719 Speaker 2: the University of Virginia, Kyle, I want to point you 592 00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:36,640 Speaker 2: to the top of the ticket, as we've been talking 593 00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:41,360 Speaker 2: about congressional races, even state level races in Texas. Joe 594 00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,880 Speaker 2: Biden is leaving the bubble today to go back to Pennsylvania, 595 00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:48,040 Speaker 2: which seems to be a real drive by the campaign 596 00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:52,360 Speaker 2: to shore up support among black voters, who polling shows 597 00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 2: are turning away from Joe Biden, not necessarily toward Trump, 598 00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:59,960 Speaker 2: although we have seen some evidence of that. This repeating 599 00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:04,600 Speaker 2: visit though to Pennsylvania along with states like Michigan, is 600 00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:07,200 Speaker 2: this going to be essentially a three state campaign for 601 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:07,840 Speaker 2: Joe Biden. 602 00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:10,200 Speaker 6: I mean, I mean, look, I mean I think if 603 00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:12,480 Speaker 6: you look at the polls, and I think the polls 604 00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:16,000 Speaker 6: are probably overstating the extent of Trump's strength when we 605 00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:18,880 Speaker 6: actually get down to the November election, although I only 606 00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:20,520 Speaker 6: say that in the sense that I think if you 607 00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:22,239 Speaker 6: looked at the polls now you could argue Trump as 608 00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:24,360 Speaker 6: a favorite. I basically just think it's kind of more 609 00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:27,880 Speaker 6: of a fifty to fifty sort of proposition. But I 610 00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:31,520 Speaker 6: do think that if Biden holds onto Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, 611 00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:34,520 Speaker 6: he is pretty likely to win the presidential race. I 612 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:36,360 Speaker 6: think if he loses any of the three, he's pretty 613 00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:39,400 Speaker 6: likely to lose. And so yes, you know, Georgia and 614 00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:43,080 Speaker 6: Arizona and Nevada and North Carolina are also important. You know, 615 00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:46,000 Speaker 6: those seven states together are the seven that were decided 616 00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:49,360 Speaker 6: by three points or less in twenty twenty. But I 617 00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:51,240 Speaker 6: do think that that, you know, it may be as 618 00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:54,880 Speaker 6: simple as Biden holds onto those three in northern industrial 619 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:57,400 Speaker 6: states or he doesn't hold on you know, one of them, 620 00:31:57,800 --> 00:32:00,600 Speaker 6: and that could very well decide the election. So if 621 00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:02,880 Speaker 6: you know, it wouldn't make sense to me that when 622 00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:05,080 Speaker 6: we tally up the campaign business, it's at the end 623 00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:07,920 Speaker 6: of the end of the campaign. You know, those three 624 00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,560 Speaker 6: industrial states may lead for Biden, and that makes sense 625 00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:10,800 Speaker 6: to me. 626 00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:15,760 Speaker 2: It's a narrow path, Kyle, and we have to remind 627 00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:18,400 Speaker 2: ourselves of this as we look at national polls. 628 00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:19,480 Speaker 3: It's great to have you back. 629 00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,600 Speaker 2: Don't be a stranger From the University of Virginia Sabado's 630 00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:25,720 Speaker 2: Crystal Ball, where he is managing editor Kyle Condick with 631 00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:29,240 Speaker 2: great analysis for US Today on the fastest show in politics. 632 00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:34,160 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 633 00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:37,080 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play 634 00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:39,560 Speaker 1: and then roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business App. You 635 00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:42,800 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 636 00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:46,680 Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 637 00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:52,240 Speaker 5: There are now twelve people American citizens, jury of his 638 00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:54,720 Speaker 5: peers sitting in a room to decide Joe whether or 639 00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:58,680 Speaker 5: not he ultimately will be acquitted, convicted of these crimes 640 00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:00,720 Speaker 5: or perhaps and up in a mistrip. 641 00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,640 Speaker 2: That's right, and six alternates have to sit through this 642 00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:06,680 Speaker 2: in the courtroom in case they are needed. Pretty remarkable. 643 00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:09,400 Speaker 2: We did see Donald Trump a short time ago. He 644 00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:11,480 Speaker 2: called it the trial rigged. As we've been hearing. He says, 645 00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:14,840 Speaker 2: mother Teresa wouldn't be able to beat the charges outlined here. 646 00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:18,120 Speaker 2: So he's clearly setting expectations, as is his campaign, and 647 00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:21,040 Speaker 2: we have to talk about the political implications here, and 648 00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:24,000 Speaker 2: for that we have our great political panel. Lisa Cumuso 649 00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:28,040 Speaker 2: Miller is with US, Republican strategist, former communications director at 650 00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:31,720 Speaker 2: the RNC and host of the Friday Reporter podcast, alongside 651 00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:35,840 Speaker 2: Genie Shanzy No Bloomberg politics contributor, Democratic Analysts. Great to 652 00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:39,880 Speaker 2: have you both with us here, Lisa, I don't know 653 00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:44,160 Speaker 2: your thoughts on what is about to transpire, but the 654 00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:47,840 Speaker 2: campaign doesn't have the luxury you have to start mapping 655 00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:54,360 Speaker 2: out various possibilities here, various scenarios. What's happening inside Trump 656 00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:55,520 Speaker 2: HQ today? 657 00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:59,440 Speaker 10: You know, Joe, it strikes me that if you're the 658 00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:02,520 Speaker 10: Trump camp, you're going to proceed exactly the way you 659 00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,320 Speaker 10: have been planning to proceed. You call this what they've 660 00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:08,600 Speaker 10: been saying all along is that this is an overreach 661 00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:11,480 Speaker 10: of government, that it is just the kind of thing 662 00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:14,000 Speaker 10: that is going to happen to someone like Donald Trump, 663 00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:18,400 Speaker 10: and you proceed strongly with that that sort of positioning. 664 00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:21,080 Speaker 10: If you're the Biden campaign, however, there are two very 665 00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:24,680 Speaker 10: different scenarios, two very different scenarios that could play out, 666 00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,120 Speaker 10: actually three really if there's a hung jury, so there's 667 00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:28,880 Speaker 10: a lot of opportunity for them to sort of think 668 00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:31,719 Speaker 10: about how they're going to position themselves. Regardless though we 669 00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:34,399 Speaker 10: should probably be expecting from the Biden campaign to hear 670 00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:36,279 Speaker 10: that this should not be happening with someone who was 671 00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,320 Speaker 10: a former president, regardless of the outcome. 672 00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:42,360 Speaker 5: Well, GINI, it kind of raises the question for me 673 00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:45,760 Speaker 5: as to whether or not acquittal or conviction for Donald 674 00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:47,920 Speaker 5: Trump can be played as a win. If you're acquitted, 675 00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:50,640 Speaker 5: obviously you are not a convicted felon. If you are 676 00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:54,080 Speaker 5: a convicted felon that has shown an incredible power to 677 00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:57,319 Speaker 5: fire up and galvanize your base of supporters. Whereas for 678 00:34:57,400 --> 00:35:01,160 Speaker 5: Joe Biden, if Donald Trump is convicted, it could galvanize 679 00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:03,879 Speaker 5: Donald Trump's base of supporters, not bring more people into 680 00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:06,759 Speaker 5: Joe Biden's camp necessarily. And if he's acquitted and that's 681 00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:08,680 Speaker 5: the only trial that goes, do you lose a lot 682 00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:12,280 Speaker 5: of ammunition when trying to counter him in a campaign? 683 00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:14,720 Speaker 5: Is this win win for Donald Trump, lose lose for Biden? 684 00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:19,240 Speaker 8: You know, I don't think so, unless the Biden team 685 00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:20,720 Speaker 8: overplays its hand. 686 00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:21,160 Speaker 6: On this. 687 00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:24,640 Speaker 8: The reality is is that this campaign is not going 688 00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:27,400 Speaker 8: to be one or lost in a courtroom. It never was. 689 00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,440 Speaker 8: It's got to be one or lost at the ballot box. 690 00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:34,480 Speaker 8: And so I am suspect of what the Biden campaign 691 00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:37,759 Speaker 8: did yesterday by bringing folks like Robert de Niro down 692 00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:40,440 Speaker 8: there where the media are. I think, you look at 693 00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:44,759 Speaker 8: what's happening today. Donald Trump is saying to his folks 694 00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:48,080 Speaker 8: that if I am convicted, I will appeal. It will 695 00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:52,560 Speaker 8: endear me to voters, for example, African American male voters 696 00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:56,040 Speaker 8: who think the system is rigged. You juxtapose that to 697 00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:59,120 Speaker 8: what Joe Biden is doing today with Kamala Harris, with 698 00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:02,920 Speaker 8: Wes Moore, with others. He is going into Philly two 699 00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:06,320 Speaker 8: campaign stops there to talk about what he has done 700 00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:10,240 Speaker 8: for African American voters. I'd much rather be the Biden 701 00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:13,120 Speaker 8: campaign at this point than I would fighting for my 702 00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:16,080 Speaker 8: life in the courtroom like Donald Trump and saying, worst 703 00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:19,440 Speaker 8: case scenario scenario, I'm convicted, and boy, that's going to 704 00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:23,000 Speaker 8: make me a sort of appealing figure to people who 705 00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:24,720 Speaker 8: think our justice system is rigged. 706 00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:30,480 Speaker 2: Yet this criminal trial underway for six weeks has done 707 00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:35,160 Speaker 2: nothing to damage Donald Trump's numbers. Certainly in polls, Lisa, 708 00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:39,319 Speaker 2: he actually eclipsed Joe Biden when it comes to fundraising 709 00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:42,799 Speaker 2: for the first time in this cycle, just last month. 710 00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:45,319 Speaker 2: Do we have any reason to believe a verdict would 711 00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:45,719 Speaker 2: change that? 712 00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:49,160 Speaker 10: No, I really don't think so. I mean, what I 713 00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:52,640 Speaker 10: think we're looking at here is traditional campaigning, which is 714 00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:55,000 Speaker 10: what you're seeing with the President taking his campaign to 715 00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:58,520 Speaker 10: Philadelphia today, and you're seeing campaigning in twenty twenty four 716 00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:02,040 Speaker 10: where Donald Trump comes out from the courtroom and says 717 00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:05,040 Speaker 10: a couple of things that are perhaps a little bit 718 00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:09,480 Speaker 10: inflation just well insane for lack of a better way 719 00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:11,279 Speaker 10: to put it, the fact that he talks about even 720 00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:15,000 Speaker 10: how mother Teresa couldn't escape this verdict. But regardless of 721 00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:18,319 Speaker 10: all of that, it's the traditional campaign and it's what's 722 00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,400 Speaker 10: happening in twenty twenty four, and one is winning and 723 00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:23,960 Speaker 10: one is not. Regardless of where you are on these 724 00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:26,960 Speaker 10: two candidates, the difference is is that Donald Trump is 725 00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:30,440 Speaker 10: using this craziness and the insanity that is the courtroom 726 00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:33,960 Speaker 10: to his advantage and it's got him winning up against 727 00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:37,160 Speaker 10: Joe Biden, who's running a traditional campaign. 728 00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,720 Speaker 5: And Genie It's worth pointing out while we're talking about 729 00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:43,319 Speaker 5: this case in New York that was brought against him, 730 00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:47,080 Speaker 5: he also has been charged with dozens of other crimes, 731 00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:49,640 Speaker 5: three different other cases, two of them federal, one of 732 00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:52,200 Speaker 5: them of course, estate case down in Georgia, and the 733 00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:54,640 Speaker 5: federal case at least one of them here in Washington, 734 00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:57,560 Speaker 5: brought by Jack Smith, is currently held up as we 735 00:37:57,600 --> 00:38:00,560 Speaker 5: await a decision from the Supreme Court to whether or 736 00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:03,520 Speaker 5: not Donald Trump has presidential immunity. And there have been 737 00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:06,720 Speaker 5: calls for one of the Supreme Court Justices, Samuel Alito, 738 00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:10,560 Speaker 5: to recuse himself from cases related to January sixth, in 739 00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:15,320 Speaker 5: particular after reports of flags that were carried by rioters 740 00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:18,399 Speaker 5: at the Capitol on January sixth. We're flying outside two 741 00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:21,520 Speaker 5: of his homes. We just heard in a letter to 742 00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:24,680 Speaker 5: Congress from the Justice Samuel Alito that he is rejecting 743 00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:27,279 Speaker 5: calls to set aside from those January six cases. He 744 00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:31,120 Speaker 5: will not refuse himself from Trump or January six cases 745 00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:35,759 Speaker 5: over the flag reports. Gene, what's your reaction to that? 746 00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:37,879 Speaker 5: Perhaps not too unexpected. 747 00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:41,799 Speaker 8: Not unexpected, but this is an example of something and 748 00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:43,759 Speaker 8: I'm so glad you raised us that I think the 749 00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:47,719 Speaker 8: Biden campaign should make a lot of hay about These 750 00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:51,360 Speaker 8: are things that impact all our lives. Those nine people 751 00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:55,279 Speaker 8: have the final word on what the constitution means. Not 752 00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:59,520 Speaker 8: that long ago Justice Alito voted to take away a 753 00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:02,359 Speaker 8: right down women around this country have enjoyed for over 754 00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:05,879 Speaker 8: fifty years the right to choose. And he has done that, 755 00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:08,720 Speaker 8: and then he has hung and blamed his or blamed 756 00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:11,239 Speaker 8: his wife for hanging a flag upside down in the 757 00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:14,799 Speaker 8: days after January sixth and said he will not be 758 00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:19,080 Speaker 8: moved to recuse himself. This is something that campaign should 759 00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:22,560 Speaker 8: be talking about. Joe Biden should come out and take 760 00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:25,040 Speaker 8: a stand and say, you know what, Congress, it is 761 00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:28,840 Speaker 8: time to put in either a retirement age for Supreme 762 00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:33,320 Speaker 8: Court justices, pack that court, do something because our rights 763 00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:36,720 Speaker 8: are being limited by the folks on the court, three 764 00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:39,839 Speaker 8: of which are Donald Trump appointees. I don't think though 765 00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:42,040 Speaker 8: Joe Biden's going to do it, but bah gosh, I 766 00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:44,080 Speaker 8: hope he would, because this is the kind of thing 767 00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:48,040 Speaker 8: that really matters to people, much more than what happens 768 00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:51,320 Speaker 8: in Manhattan to Donald Trump because of his hush money payment. 769 00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:53,760 Speaker 3: Packed that court. 770 00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:57,840 Speaker 2: GENI just said, Lisa, what does that mean, if that 771 00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:04,520 Speaker 2: happens to the Biden campaign. 772 00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:06,120 Speaker 10: You know, when some of Genie's points are so salient 773 00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:08,120 Speaker 10: with me that they're still sort of sticking in my brain. 774 00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:10,319 Speaker 10: I think the one thing that I take away from 775 00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:13,200 Speaker 10: all of this is that there is a constitutional crisis 776 00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:16,120 Speaker 10: in this country. Not only does the Supreme Court have 777 00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:19,399 Speaker 10: no oversight and they are the law of the land, 778 00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:22,279 Speaker 10: regardless of how they behave outside of the court. As 779 00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:25,440 Speaker 10: we're seeing in real time, we're also looking at a 780 00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:28,759 Speaker 10: case where there's a question about whether or not the 781 00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:32,440 Speaker 10: president or former president is immune to all of these 782 00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:35,520 Speaker 10: cases as they're coming through, and it's all of these 783 00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:38,799 Speaker 10: things are a question of the constitution, and so that 784 00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:42,080 Speaker 10: really comes down to where is the accountability? And that 785 00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:45,279 Speaker 10: to me is someone who's watching from the outside looking in, 786 00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:48,200 Speaker 10: not necessarily from the campaign point of view, is how 787 00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:50,880 Speaker 10: do you communicate that out to people who fundamentally are 788 00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:54,360 Speaker 10: beginning to believe or already believe that the process, whether 789 00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:57,360 Speaker 10: it's the electoral process with the Supreme Court process is 790 00:40:57,400 --> 00:41:00,600 Speaker 10: fundamentally broken in this country. And that, to me is 791 00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:02,400 Speaker 10: one that I think is going to take people to 792 00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:06,239 Speaker 10: the polling places in November, because I feel like they 793 00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:08,880 Speaker 10: are really sort of fundamentally questioning whether or not our 794 00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:11,080 Speaker 10: government is still working the way it's supposed to work. 795 00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:13,480 Speaker 1: Yeah. 796 00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:15,719 Speaker 5: Well, and Genie, just to give you the final word here, 797 00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:18,720 Speaker 5: as we consider what people are questioning about our government 798 00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:21,080 Speaker 5: and the people currently sitting at the helm of it. 799 00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:23,320 Speaker 5: We've heard a lot about how the coalition that elected 800 00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:26,200 Speaker 5: Biden into the Oval office in twenty twenty is starting 801 00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:28,880 Speaker 5: to break down, be it younger voters, be it voters 802 00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:32,200 Speaker 5: of color, black or La Latino kind of Americans. He 803 00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:35,200 Speaker 5: obviously is trying to address one particular of those groups 804 00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:38,600 Speaker 5: in Philadelphia today. But how much to do these questions 805 00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:42,240 Speaker 5: around things like democracy and the Supreme Court and faith 806 00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:46,040 Speaker 5: in these institutions actually service the Biden campaign or when 807 00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:48,480 Speaker 5: you are kind of seen as the poster child for 808 00:41:48,640 --> 00:41:51,680 Speaker 5: the institution of government, does it only actually end up 809 00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:53,799 Speaker 5: working to hurt you you're the figurehead. 810 00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:55,120 Speaker 4: Yeah. 811 00:41:55,160 --> 00:41:57,920 Speaker 8: I think the issue of democracy being on the ballot 812 00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:02,879 Speaker 8: has helped the Democrats since the Dobbs decision and January sixth, 813 00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:06,920 Speaker 8: which are two things that have happened obviously since Donald 814 00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:11,359 Speaker 8: Trump lost to the lost the presidency and he's got 815 00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:13,759 Speaker 8: a Joe Biden's got to keep talking about those to 816 00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:17,920 Speaker 8: the Supreme Court and Democracy's point. If Donald Trump wins, 817 00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:20,960 Speaker 8: he will likely be able to appoint two more Supreme 818 00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:24,800 Speaker 8: Court justices. Keep reminding people that would be a five 819 00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:27,720 Speaker 8: to four majority of Donald Trump appointees on the Court. 820 00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:31,440 Speaker 8: And your grandchildren will likely be alive before these people 821 00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:35,240 Speaker 8: are off. They have no elections. They serve for life. 822 00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:37,760 Speaker 8: Joe Biden's got to keep saying this, and I'm saying 823 00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:41,759 Speaker 8: this as from a strategy perspective. So that's what they've 824 00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:44,239 Speaker 8: got to be talking about. Not sending an eighty year 825 00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:47,240 Speaker 8: old actor down to Wall Street to fight with Donald 826 00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:49,880 Speaker 8: Trump supporters. I mean, you know, to me, it's mind 827 00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:52,560 Speaker 8: boggling what they did yesterday. He's right to be in 828 00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:56,000 Speaker 8: Philly today. He should be talking about Alito, not recusing himself. 829 00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:58,520 Speaker 8: And these are the kinds of issues that people care 830 00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:00,840 Speaker 8: about and will come out to lease point in vote on. 831 00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:03,800 Speaker 2: All Right, our great panel with us today. Thank you 832 00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:07,000 Speaker 2: so much, Genie Schanzo and Lisa Camussa Miller. 833 00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:07,960 Speaker 3: Thanks to our panel. 834 00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:15,480 Speaker 2: We'll have more from our panelists tomorrow. Thanks for listening 835 00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:18,800 Speaker 2: to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe 836 00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:21,560 Speaker 2: if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you 837 00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:24,359 Speaker 2: get your podcasts, and you can find us live every 838 00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:28,200 Speaker 2: weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot 839 00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:28,640 Speaker 2: com