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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bet. We

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Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the

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Speaker 1: show that makes the squares sharper, It makes the wise

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Speaker 1: guys pay attention. I am Chad Noman, I am joined

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Speaker 1: as always buy, my co host, my bff, my companion,

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Speaker 1: my compadre professional better Simon Hunter Ella, Simon.

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Speaker 2: Chad, how are we doing listen.

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Speaker 1: I'm not known for being insufferable, but right now I

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Speaker 1: live in a house of champions. University of Michigan, my

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Speaker 1: wife's alma mater, college basketball champions, Indiana University, my alma mater,

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Speaker 1: college football champions. It's a strange world, as we all know,

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Speaker 1: with a lot of crazy stuff going on outside of sports.

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Speaker 1: When Indiana is the football school in Michigan is the

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Speaker 1: basketball school.

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Speaker 3: But that's where we live.

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Speaker 1: And I'll also say I hope people joined the Volumes

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Speaker 1: Hard Rock.

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Speaker 3: Bet Uh Brackets contest. I came pretty close, brother.

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Speaker 1: I had Yukon winning it all, and I think I

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Speaker 1: had Ukon beating Michigan, so it was nearly there for me.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, honestly, it's I'm not going to beat you on

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Speaker 2: too hard, Chad, but yeah, you are shining right now

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Speaker 2: having twenty five and twenty six year olds to play

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Speaker 2: on your college sports team. So who cares?

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Speaker 3: You know what, I keep honest to God, listen question.

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Speaker 4: I knew it.

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Speaker 2: I knew it was going to get them.

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Speaker 4: I knew it.

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Speaker 3: It's who cares.

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Speaker 1: Everyone's got the same rules, everyone has to play the

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Speaker 1: same game.

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Speaker 3: This is how it is now.

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Speaker 1: I saw some story I read this morning on ESPN

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Speaker 1: dot com, like people are saying, Michigan's the transfer portal champion.

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Speaker 1: Who gives a fuck. Anybody can go spend on them,

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Speaker 1: can go spend on players. Anybody can get transfer portals.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, we're seeing what happened when you

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Speaker 1: don't have transfer portal guys and you got younger guys

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Speaker 1: who aren't used to the pressure and aren't playing as

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Speaker 1: adults with what happened with Duke. So fine, give me

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Speaker 1: transfer portal guys. That's what coaches have to do now.

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Speaker 1: Everybody needs to build into a different system. That's the

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Speaker 1: way it is. I have no problem with teams going

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Speaker 1: out and winning titles because they're spending on adults to

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Speaker 1: come play the game. And if they're twenty three years

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Speaker 1: old and they're playing against eighteen year olds and there's

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Speaker 1: a physical difference.

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Speaker 3: Who cares? Those are the rules, play the rules. That's it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Big ten billionaires. That's what everyone keeps talking about.

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Speaker 2: The Big ten billionaires ched So I bet you don't care.

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Speaker 2: I bet you like it.

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Speaker 3: I don't care. And you know what else you're seeing.

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Speaker 1: You're seeing what a difference the money makes. And Cowhard

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Speaker 1: and I have actually had this conversation before this nil

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Speaker 1: stuff started, but as it was becoming clear that's where

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Speaker 1: it was going, he and I had a long conversation

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Speaker 1: how this will benefit the Big ten. It will benefit

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Speaker 1: the Big ten because the Big Ten's footprint for alumni

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Speaker 1: is just significantly bigger than anybody else's and the SEC.

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Speaker 1: When the SEC can recruit from the Southeast and get

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Speaker 1: tremendous athletes, especially in football, when all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: that recruiting base is bigger, and because the money can

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Speaker 1: be spent by in much more overt ways. The alumni

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Speaker 1: base for the Big Ten is just too big, and

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Speaker 1: the people who are alumni for the Big Ten have

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Speaker 1: made too much money in a variety of industries. This

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Speaker 1: money was going to go back into the system, and

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Speaker 1: you're seeing the Big ten benefit from that.

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Speaker 3: It's tremendous. Great for the Big ten. Fucking love it.

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Speaker 2: I bet you do again.

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Speaker 3: I have no problem with it. This is the way

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Speaker 3: society works.

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Speaker 2: If you're a better bring it back to the betting.

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Speaker 2: I think that might have been the easiest run I've

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Speaker 2: ever had for college basketball. Yukon now I believe they're nine,

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Speaker 2: you know, won against the spread the last like three

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Speaker 2: or four years in the tournament. Like it's just I

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Speaker 2: know pros who like think they're smart and they try

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Speaker 2: to fade Yukon and every week they're losing, and it

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Speaker 2: just cracks me up where it's like, dude, I don't

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Speaker 2: you're not that smart?

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Speaker 3: Covered again last night?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, take take the money, take the cover. It's It's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Yukun's done, and like you said, Michigan hats off to them,

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Speaker 2: like both both games, super dominant. Final four. I think,

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Speaker 2: like Evan Abrams had a crazy stat They had like

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Speaker 2: the most points ever heading into the final game since

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Speaker 2: UCLA and like the eighties or seventies.

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Speaker 3: So second most, second most.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that was really impressive though, so obviously amazing. Yukon

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Speaker 2: hung in there, but as we all know, Michigan won

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Speaker 2: it in Yeah, I wish we had a show because

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Speaker 2: I was like, I want to hear what Duck has

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Speaker 2: to say on this game, but I don't know. You bet, Chad.

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Speaker 2: I obviously took the seven and a half on Yukon

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Speaker 2: and it was a fun sweat. But luckily it came through.

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Speaker 1: I thought, uh, Simon, I DMD with Duck on social media.

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Speaker 3: We're basically a college basketball podcast now.

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Speaker 1: Because we nailed Tennessee and Iowa, we nailed Yukon as

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Speaker 1: our brass balls.

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Speaker 3: We just went on a run.

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Speaker 1: It was really fun to be a part of this tournament.

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Speaker 1: Fun as a Yukon fan, fun as a someone who's

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Speaker 1: married to a Michigan fan.

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Speaker 3: It was a blast. But we got to turn the page.

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Speaker 1: Last week we had Derek Brown, co host of Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Pros podcast and our brother here at the Volume podcast

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Speaker 1: network come on the show. I thought it was one

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Speaker 1: of the smartest draft analysis shows we've done since the

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Speaker 1: Mac Jones era when you were all over that.

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Speaker 3: So we've conscripted Derek into being our.

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Speaker 1: Draft analyst for the next eight episodes or however many

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Speaker 1: were doing before the draft.

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Speaker 3: Derek, welcome back, brother.

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Speaker 4: Oh guys, thank you for having me back.

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Speaker 5: And I would have hopped in this whole college basketball

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Speaker 5: conversation if honestly I could tell you I knew anything

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Speaker 5: about the college basketball landscape these days. I haven't kept

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Speaker 5: up with it since, like Roy Smith and all kinds

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Speaker 5: of stuff.

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Speaker 4: Man, So it's been a minute.

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Speaker 5: So I'll sit back and listen to Chad have a

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Speaker 5: good time here.

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Speaker 3: Well, listen, you lived in Baton Rouge forever.

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Speaker 1: And my theory on this and that Coward and I

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Speaker 1: have talked about, and maybe you can agree or disagree,

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Speaker 1: is that these southern schools now the SEC schools Georgia, Tennessee, Florida.

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Speaker 1: They are as someone who has a kid who's a

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Speaker 1: freshman in college and just went through the process.

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Speaker 3: In the last couple of years.

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Speaker 1: They're becoming more and more competitive, and they're attracting students

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Speaker 1: from far outside the southeast quadrant of the country. And

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Speaker 1: I do think in the next ten twenty years you're

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Speaker 1: going to start seeing people who.

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Speaker 3: Went there from the Northeastern.

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Speaker 2: Look.

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Speaker 1: I live in Connecticut, so many kids I know are

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Speaker 1: going to Florida. So many kids of friends of ours

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Speaker 1: going to Florida and Georgia, et cetera. And Alabama like

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Speaker 1: they are going to then move, and the footprint for

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Speaker 1: people who will be donating to these schools and supporting

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Speaker 1: the n out for these schools is just going to

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Speaker 1: be so much bigger that will all catch up. But

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Speaker 1: I do think the way that the provincial nature of

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Speaker 1: the way schools have long existed is changing, and that

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Speaker 1: will change how teams raise money and how teams spend money.

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Speaker 4: I don't disagree at all.

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Speaker 5: I think you got really deep pockets throughout the SEC.

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Speaker 5: And plus, you know, a lot of these warm weather

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Speaker 5: schools they already have the edge on recruiting in their

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Speaker 5: backyards for football and baseball and long story traditions. So

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Speaker 5: however you want to splice this up, tons of freaking money,

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Speaker 5: warm weather climates, good, fertile like recruiting grounds.

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Speaker 4: I mean, it all kind of stacks up.

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Speaker 5: The SEC is beast and everybody else is just kind of,

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Speaker 5: you know, following suit.

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Speaker 3: Here except for the Big Ten, which is fair.

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Speaker 4: Fair. I'll let you have a moment.

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Speaker 3: Home home of champions. Hey, you know who's having a moment.

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Speaker 1: One of my favorite cities in the world, the city

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Speaker 1: of Pittsburgh, Beautiful city, resurgent city, hosting the Draft. Seven

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand people expended expected to attend the draft, and

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Speaker 1: because of that, the city of Pittsburgh has decided that

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Speaker 1: school will be canceled that day because it will be

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Speaker 1: too much of a nightmare with everybody descending into the

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Speaker 1: city to try to get around all makes perfect sense

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Speaker 1: to me. I have no issue with it. How do

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Speaker 1: you guys feel about that, Simon?

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Speaker 2: The new school part for the kids, I mean, obviously

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Speaker 2: the school, that's a whole nother conversation. But yeah, to

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Speaker 2: have kids have a experience like that a day off.

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Speaker 2: You know, I went to the NFL Draft in Philly

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Speaker 2: and you could say, well, I'm twenty years old than

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Speaker 2: those I still had an amazing time because it's just

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Speaker 2: as much one for adults as for kids. If you

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Speaker 2: just love football around football people, it's a great time.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, Pittsburgh obviously, I just said it's a beautiful city.

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Speaker 2: Perfect weather obviously lead into that spot. So I'm about it.

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Speaker 2: The football. I know baseball is America's sport, but to me, football,

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Speaker 2: we don't know. It's America's pastime, and we're all waiting

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Speaker 2: for it right the day off after the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 2: once they bring in this eighteenth game, they push it

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Speaker 2: back to President's weekend. It just makes sense. It's truly

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Speaker 2: a national holiday at this point. So the fact that

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Speaker 2: you know, the Rockefeller people blew it. They told the

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Speaker 2: NFL they couldn't have the draft because they already scheduled something.

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Speaker 2: And now, Gooddell, he makes a lot of missteps, but

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Speaker 2: this is one of his best achievements. I think it's

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Speaker 2: another other thing that's to be part of his last

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Speaker 2: legacy is this draft taking the city city because I

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Speaker 2: know professional betters who have gone to Nashville for I

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Speaker 2: know guys who have traveled following the draft around every

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Speaker 2: year because it's fun and it's good for sourcing. Like

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Speaker 2: you're around these teams, around these people who are having

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Speaker 2: a good time because they've just worked like maniacs for

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Speaker 2: twelve months. Now there it's all ending at this draft.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, Chat, I'm with you. I think it's it's

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Speaker 2: pretty awesome.

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Speaker 3: Honestly, are you saying loose lips?

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Speaker 1: Loose lips in the last forty eight hours before the

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Speaker 1: draft happens. So if you can get on the ground

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Speaker 1: and be around everybody who's ready to let loose, then

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Speaker 1: you're going to get some intel.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, No, it's a real that's a real thing, and

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Speaker 2: it's you're constantly working these people because everyone is the

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Speaker 2: height and level where they're trying to get as much

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Speaker 2: info as possible, because everyone's right about losing their guy.

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Speaker 2: That's why you see these teams trade up and take

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Speaker 2: a guy. You're like, why'd they just trade to take him?

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Speaker 2: Because it's all information based. It's all being fed information

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Speaker 2: and that's how you build relationships. Right, if you give

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Speaker 2: someone good relate, you get a good info that pays

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Speaker 2: off for them. They will have you in their good

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Speaker 2: graces for a very long time until you burn that bridge,

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Speaker 2: which unless you're an idot you wouldn't do. So. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: for me, Chad, it's I still don't go. Oh, it's

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Speaker 2: hard cords. I used to win the ruck. Like I said,

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Speaker 2: it's not as profitable as it used to be. But

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Speaker 2: am I gonna have guys boots on the ground. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I'm I gonna be work on the phones. Yeah, it's

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Speaker 2: I am looking for an edge, looking for an angle,

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Speaker 2: and obviously if I hear anything, I always passed along

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Speaker 2: on the show.

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Speaker 3: Hey, Derek.

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Speaker 1: In the last week since we spoke, we talked about

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Speaker 1: the markets and they're sort of slowly trickling out. Forget

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Speaker 1: about having to bet markets. I'm going to ask you

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Speaker 1: this in a second, but in the last week, what

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Speaker 1: kind of rumblings have you heard? How much are you

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Speaker 1: getting knocked on by sources to talk about the draft?

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Speaker 1: See what's happening, See what you can share. Like Simon

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Speaker 1: was just saying.

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Speaker 4: A few knocks at the door and stuff.

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Speaker 5: I think it's kind of still the calm before the storm,

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Speaker 5: So hearing a little bit here and there, you're hearing

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Speaker 5: something and really this is kind of again before everything

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Speaker 5: kind of revs up, like we're just now getting into

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Speaker 5: like you know, top thirty visits and stuff like that.

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Speaker 5: So not a coming my way. But I'm sure the

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Speaker 5: title wave is. I mean, it's I could see it

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Speaker 5: right now, right at the horizon.

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Speaker 3: What do you want to go ahead? Go ahead? Side?

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Speaker 3: What did you say?

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Speaker 2: Do you want an update on the lines? What we

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Speaker 2: gave out because it is interesting seeing the movement week

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Speaker 2: the week.

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Speaker 4: I saw the movement, yep, what happened?

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Speaker 3: Tell me? Tell me, h well, just.

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Speaker 2: Derek gave it a great pick about the offensive lineman

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Speaker 2: in the first round, right, it was over seven seven

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Speaker 2: and a half. That was either could have got a

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Speaker 2: plus number of minus one ten. It's now minus one

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Speaker 2: seventy five. That's that's a heavy movement. Just not obviously

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Speaker 2: not off our show, but I think that's just showing

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Speaker 2: people that this offensive line group more people mock that

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Speaker 2: eighth guy in. That's what you see, right, Daniel Jeremiah

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Speaker 2: puts on a mock that as that eighth offensive lineman

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Speaker 2: in there. Boom, this is gonna move. That's where I

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Speaker 2: tell people to get these bets early running back. Like

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Speaker 2: I told you, I don't think there's gonna be a

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Speaker 2: second running back in the first round, but there are

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Speaker 2: two guys fighting for that back end position, right And

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Speaker 2: you know, to me, we gave it out a five

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Speaker 2: fifty five seventy five plus five seventy five two running

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Speaker 2: backs sticking in the first round is now down to

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Speaker 2: plus four seventy five. Wow, Like you just keep seeing

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Speaker 2: those little movements ship but away. That's our whole point

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Speaker 2: of like, yep, talking about these early lines. You're talking

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Speaker 2: about getting them now because things are going to keep moving.

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Speaker 2: And you know we talked wide receivers in their first round.

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Speaker 2: There's a bunch of different books moving. I think we

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Speaker 2: talked about it was like plus one eighty plus one

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Speaker 2: seventy five five and a half. Now it's not a

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Speaker 2: plus one fifty plus one forty. So again that's not

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Speaker 2: a ton of moving people, but that thirty forty cents

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Speaker 2: when you're betting massive amounts, that's big money. So that's

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Speaker 2: where we're talking about, Like.

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Speaker 4: Still movement in the right direction, baby, I mean later

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Speaker 4: a podcasts.

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Speaker 2: Be like, oh, it's so early to be listening talking

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Speaker 2: draft or betting draft. If this is it, you were

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Speaker 2: in it, you want to start taking positions now just

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Speaker 2: either be ad gene or you don't need to do anything.

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Speaker 2: That's the best part. Like the day comes, you're already

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Speaker 2: in an amazing position. So yeah, props to Derek for now

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Speaker 2: on that offensive line move that was by far the

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Speaker 2: biggest movement on the first day.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and also just to throw this out there, we

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Speaker 5: were talking, I was talking about the ball utility and

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Speaker 5: ruben Bain at plus fourteen hundred, he's down to plus

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Speaker 5: one thousand plus twelve hundred. And David Bailey's had some

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Speaker 5: movement too, because the steam's kind of coming in on

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Speaker 5: him over the last few days with a lot of

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Speaker 5: mocks and people talking about you know, if they don't

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Speaker 5: go RVL Reese, then it's going to be Bailey. So again,

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Speaker 5: you know, we're seeing movement in the markets. It's just

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Speaker 5: more condensed and you know, again chipping away at it.

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Speaker 1: Did you guys watch the coverage of Fernando Mendoza's pro

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Speaker 1: day at all last week? Little so a lot was

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Speaker 1: made about Fernando Mendoza calling out the names of his

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Speaker 1: receivers and the routes that they were running during his

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Speaker 1: pro day and people were flipping out about it. And

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Speaker 1: I can't ever tell from your perspective, Derek, I want

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Speaker 1: to start with you, is stuff like that just being fetishized?

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Speaker 1: And is it silly or does it matter? Is it

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Speaker 1: similar to ruben Bain's arm length? Like what is the

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Speaker 1: value of something like that in terms of translating what

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Speaker 1: that means for someone who's a professional.

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Speaker 2: None.

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Speaker 4: They just think it's it's useless. Like I think it's

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Speaker 4: right now.

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Speaker 5: We're in the like I said, the calm before the storm,

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Speaker 5: and then we get to the pro days and it's

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Speaker 5: like the QB one, the one oh one pick and

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Speaker 5: stuff like and I said, I barely looked at his

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Speaker 5: Pro Day stuff because I guys just don't care about

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Speaker 5: a lot of the Pro Day stuff, like the throwing sessions.

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Speaker 2: I don't care.

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Speaker 5: The film tells all, I don't care if the guy

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Speaker 5: runs in seventeen circles and then.

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Speaker 4: Chucks it up.

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Speaker 5: You know, Will Levis styles, Zach Wilson style doesn't matter

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Speaker 5: to me. I think there's certain things to take away

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Speaker 5: from Pro Day's when we see guys that come back

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Speaker 5: from injuries, like Jermal McCoy coming out and running like

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Speaker 5: a four three forty guys we've had speed questions, whether

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Speaker 5: they test or they don't test. I take more of

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Speaker 5: that away from the Pro Days, that we're getting that

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Speaker 5: type of intel and what that can do for player's

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Speaker 5: draft stock. Like if we're talking about, you know, betting

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Speaker 5: certain markets. If a guy goes top five, top ten,

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Speaker 5: you know, like somebody like McCoy where you know he

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Speaker 5: was probably more on the middle of the first round

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Speaker 5: kind of kind of deal.

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Speaker 4: Could he sneak into the top ten.

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Speaker 5: I'm not projecting that, but if we continue to see

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Speaker 5: kind of like slight buzz on him, could that happen?

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Speaker 5: It's possible because I think there's a clear delineation of

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Speaker 5: like the top two corners in this draft. So things

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Speaker 5: like that were whether I'm applying it to betting or

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Speaker 5: proof of concepts stuff like that. That's what I take

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Speaker 5: away from Pro Day is all the throwing sessions and

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Speaker 5: stuff like that.

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Speaker 4: I'll leave that to the.

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Speaker 5: Social media, you know, aggregation accounts for that kind of stuff.

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Speaker 1: I guess, Yeah, like Simon, why do these things matter?

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Speaker 1: Aren't you just you're playing catch something you've done a

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Speaker 1: thousand times with these receivers, Like, it just doesn't make

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Speaker 1: any sense to me that people put any merit into

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Speaker 1: a Pro Day.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say for someone like me, it's a

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Speaker 2: big deal. John, I know it sounds, but like I

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Speaker 2: love it. Like the quarterback, I study the quarterbacks NonStop.

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Speaker 2: That's my position I really hyper focus on because I

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Speaker 2: just think there's huge edges and betting when you can

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Speaker 2: really get good reason quarterbacks. And I tell everyone, if

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Speaker 2: you're an amateur, better and you're trying to get better

358
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Speaker 2: at it, learn the quarterback position, Learn about footwork right,

359
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Speaker 2: learn about quarterback arm angles. Learn all that stuff does matter.

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Speaker 2: Learning to watch tape on quarterbacks. You might think it's

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Speaker 2: a waste of time. It doesn't. It's all on an

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Speaker 2: added tool to you your tool chest. And what I'm

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Speaker 2: looking for is exactly what he showed me right, Like

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Speaker 2: apparently he's been working more under center. He's been learning

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Speaker 2: the Raiders playbook even before he's drafted by them. Like

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Speaker 2: I know it doesn't sound like that matters to field,

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Speaker 2: but like to me, that's a huge deal because he

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Speaker 2: is limited. There are things fan Am Mendoza is not

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Speaker 2: good at, and you know, in the right draft class

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Speaker 2: with other quarterbacks, he would not be the number one.

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Speaker 2: But what he needs to be a ten at is

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Speaker 2: going above and beyond, working harder than everyone else, being

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Speaker 2: that hardcore team leader guy. Where Yeah, on TV they're like, well,

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Speaker 2: Fernanda has been here two hours before just getting ready

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Speaker 2: working out. Yeah is that coin? Does that really matter? No,

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Speaker 2: that's what we want to see from a guy like

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Speaker 2: Frenana Mendoza, Like you need him to be that guy

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Speaker 2: that goes way above and beyond. So yeah, for me,

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Speaker 2: I watched it just to see how he's a progressing because,

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Speaker 2: like I said, there's a lot of things I like

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Speaker 2: about his game. There's a lot of stuff from like

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Speaker 2: this guy has bust written all over him, so really hilarious.

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Speaker 2: The fact that he is doing more under center, and

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Speaker 2: you know they went out and they spent whatever it was,

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Speaker 2: over one hundred million of felic on a center just

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Speaker 2: to get him more comfortable with that the Raiders. That

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Speaker 2: to me is all going to matter for Mendoza going forward.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm I just I feel the Raiders can't

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Speaker 2: mess this up right. They have the perfect personality this guy.

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Speaker 2: He's not a wet blanket. He's got personality to him.

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Speaker 2: But he's not going out on Friday again drinks in Vegas,

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Speaker 2: and there are half the quarterbacks in the league that

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Speaker 2: would be going out maybe hitting that Blackjack tape on

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Speaker 2: the private room. And to me, everyone I talked to

395
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Speaker 2: you bind the scenes everything, it's like, no, no skeletons

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Speaker 2: in the closet. This is legit who he is. Good dude,

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Speaker 2: you want to get a beer with him? Team leader, like,

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Speaker 2: no doubt about it. So yeah, everything I've seen this

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Speaker 2: offseason and just I keep loving the kid even more. So.

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Speaker 2: I can't believe the Raiders had this fall in their

401
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Speaker 2: laps and the Jets won a meaningless game and missed

402
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Speaker 2: out on this guy because he would have approached for

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Speaker 2: the Jets as well. Like I said, he could be

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Speaker 2: a bust, but I feel like his upside so high

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Speaker 2: any team would have been so lucky to get it Mendoza. So,

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Speaker 2: like I said, I'm a crazy person, but I love

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Speaker 2: watching all this GB stuff.

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Speaker 4: I'm glad he's not one of the Jets. They would

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Speaker 4: have screwed it up.

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Speaker 3: But what's interesting, and I think Derek disagrees here.

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Speaker 1: You just said you think he could just easily be

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Speaker 1: a bust, and I don't think Derek agrees with that

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Speaker 1: at all.

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Speaker 5: I will agree to disagree on that. I think he's

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Speaker 5: a really clean eval. I think if we're talking about

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Speaker 5: bus players, get you know, Ty Simpson all day, I

417
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Speaker 5: think that's that's the clear bust to me. But for Mendoza,

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Speaker 5: I just thought he was clear evl Like, is he

419
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Speaker 5: the most like naturally gifted throw of the football where

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Speaker 5: you're getting all the highlight reel stuff of like Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 4: And Kleb Williams.

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Speaker 5: No, but I think there's something to be said that

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Speaker 5: we've honestly, like our view of quarterback play and what's

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Speaker 5: important has kind of been tainted a little bit by

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Speaker 5: people chasing the highlight reel stuff and chasing the out

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Speaker 5: of structure stuff and chasing the ESPN moments like.

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Speaker 4: Is that cool?

428
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Speaker 5: And if you can live in that world five to

429
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Speaker 5: seven plays a game, can it make a difference.

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Speaker 2: Sure?

431
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Speaker 5: I think there's also something to be said for running

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Speaker 5: the freaking offense, man, like throwing the ball accurately, keeping

433
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Speaker 5: the offense on schedule, doing the things you're supposed to,

434
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Speaker 5: and doing them at at a really consistent high level.

435
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Speaker 5: Like it's boring, but I really appreciate that from quarterback

436
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Speaker 5: classes because we've seen guys come out to the NFL

437
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Speaker 5: and struggle with that, Like you know, Caleb Williams, like

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00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,359
Speaker 5: everybody pushed back when I wasn't as high on him

439
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,040
Speaker 5: versus consensus, and then he goes out and has kind

440
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 5: of a subpar rookie season I think, honestly, like per

441
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:11,680
Speaker 5: dropback metrics, like still struggling. It's glossed over by the

442
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:14,160
Speaker 5: Ben Johnson effect and a lot of the things with Chicago,

443
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:16,520
Speaker 5: but I still don't look at him as being an

444
00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:19,280
Speaker 5: accurate passer, So you know, maybe this is you know,

445
00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:22,199
Speaker 5: some of this just comes down to like quarterback eVols

446
00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 5: and how we attack the position and stuff.

447
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:25,320
Speaker 4: But I like Mendos a lot.

448
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:30,400
Speaker 1: It's so interesting, Simon, what makes you think he would

449
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:31,320
Speaker 1: be a bust.

450
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:37,760
Speaker 2: Expectations? Like to me, he could be closer to Derek

451
00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:41,919
Speaker 2: Carr than he is too, a Tom Brady type. Like

452
00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 2: that's that's a thing where it's like, do I think

453
00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 2: he can be good? Yeah, I think it's potential, But

454
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:50,000
Speaker 2: like to think you'll be like Andrew luck Right going

455
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,119
Speaker 2: the AFC Championship in his second or third year, or

456
00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:55,280
Speaker 2: like Joe Burrow. I just feel like expectations are already too

457
00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:58,119
Speaker 2: high on this kid. Where my wordy for Mendoz is

458
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 2: did he Plato seen? Because he just had the best

459
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 2: coaching you could possibly have and he did live up

460
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 2: to it, Like I said, like those sideline throws, the fades,

461
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:10,200
Speaker 2: all of it. That's why I love Mendoz. I think

462
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:12,800
Speaker 2: he has a ton of potential. The question is can

463
00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 2: you keep building on that? Because I'm always looking for

464
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 2: the raw talent, Like that's why I love Kyler Williams,

465
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:21,439
Speaker 2: Kayleb Williams. That's so much raw talent. He just needed coaching,

466
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 2: like he never had the coach that can mold that

467
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 2: into him. And we talked about like the coach Ben

468
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:29,200
Speaker 2: Johnson's beating him down. He is beating him down mentally,

469
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:33,399
Speaker 2: all of it. That's what he needed. I'm interesting when

470
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:35,600
Speaker 2: Mendoze is gonna need because he he just went from

471
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:38,399
Speaker 2: the best coaching you can have and that coach got

472
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:41,239
Speaker 2: every drop of ounce of talent at a Mendoza and

473
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 2: he put on the twenty pounds of muscle. Like what

474
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 2: is there more for him to build on that he

475
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 2: built on last year and improve so much? So, like

476
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 2: I said, I think he can work out, like I

477
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 2: think mentally, all these all that stuff is there. It's

478
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 2: just can the league figure him out and can he

479
00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 2: adjust to it? Because that's the hardest part. Like once

480
00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:02,359
Speaker 2: you have your best season, the league ad just I

481
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 2: mean we talk all the time, Mahomes the goat, He'll

482
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 2: never get back to fifty touchdowns again, right, the league

483
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 2: adjusted so hard that offensive scheme is gone, Like you

484
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:14,160
Speaker 2: cannot be pushing the ball downfield like that anymore. It's

485
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 2: just the league has changed so much. So you know,

486
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 2: for me, expectations Mendoza and the heart one of the

487
00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:22,520
Speaker 2: hardest divisions of football, right, like Mahomes, Bo Nicks and

488
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 2: Justin Herbert. If he can make them a playoff contender

489
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 2: over the next ten years and maybe win one or

490
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:31,879
Speaker 2: two playoff games, maybe make it with AFC championship games

491
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 2: that to me would be successful. To others, Jet that's

492
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,360
Speaker 2: a bust. Like the That's what I'm saying. The expectation

493
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:40,120
Speaker 2: of Mendoza right now are so high because, like you said,

494
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 2: that might being the best college football seasons you've ever seen.

495
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 2: It's the same thing with Joe Burrow. Like Joe Burrow,

496
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:47,560
Speaker 2: no one thinks he's a bust. We'll see if he

497
00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:50,679
Speaker 2: missed the playoffs again for another three four years, that

498
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 2: conversation is gonna start happening. So that's the NFL. It's

499
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 2: just the expectations are insane, and I am again. I

500
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 2: know it's tough because you guys both like me those

501
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:03,159
Speaker 2: I like them too. I'm just putting out there right now.

502
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:05,440
Speaker 2: There's little things I see from him, like my god,

503
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 2: this came out of plateaued and I don't how much

504
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 2: more there's gonna be built off of this. So I'm

505
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 2: excited to see what he does in the next level.

506
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 2: Like it's it's it's all there.

507
00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 5: It's just can he keep approving not to push back,

508
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 5: but to add on to that, Simon, what I would

509
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:23,679
Speaker 5: say is got to splices his tape his film of

510
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 5: twenty twenty five season. Cut it in half. Go watch

511
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 5: the beginning of it and watch the stretch run stuff.

512
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 5: Because when I first walked into his tape, e Val,

513
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 5: I was like, Okay, there's a lot of like RPO's space,

514
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 5: easy completions, like where is the the NFL caliber throws

515
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:44,880
Speaker 5: into tight windows and you're doing stuff in the aggressiveness

516
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,879
Speaker 5: and the playmaking ability. You see that more, or at

517
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 5: least I saw it personally more towards the back half

518
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:54,359
Speaker 5: of the twenty twenty five season, when competition the lights

519
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:56,439
Speaker 5: got brighter. Things like that. I mean, just go to

520
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:58,920
Speaker 5: you know, the National Championship game and stuff, so where

521
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:02,399
Speaker 5: you see more grit and playmaking and the willingness to

522
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:04,360
Speaker 5: kind of stomp the gas pedal a little bit more.

523
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:06,680
Speaker 4: That That's what gave.

524
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:10,880
Speaker 5: Me a little more not hope, but like optimism that

525
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:14,160
Speaker 5: that Mendoza's still got to look like another level that

526
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,719
Speaker 5: we can still get to and explore, and another like

527
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 5: fast other fastest of his game that I think he

528
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:20,200
Speaker 5: can still grow.

529
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 2: You just said it the you said he was an

530
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,680
Speaker 2: rpo merchant. So that's the fear. It's like it's a

531
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 2: lot of quarterbacks and in college though, I mean that

532
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:29,440
Speaker 2: you know, and then they get the NFL and it's

533
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:31,639
Speaker 2: it's not it's gone, like you just can't run in

534
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:34,399
Speaker 2: the NFL. The linebackers are too long, too fast, and

535
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 2: so are the corners. They just know those plays. So

536
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 2: that's why I can't see what he becomes because it's like,

537
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:41,680
Speaker 2: like you said, those spade routes. He did keep getting

538
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:45,119
Speaker 2: better and better. It's just yeah, like any quarterback, we

539
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 2: have questions the fact that he's going to an organization

540
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:50,880
Speaker 2: that their last good quarterback. I mean, Derek Carr was good,

541
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 2: but I'm talking like Kerry Collins, like two thousand. I mean,

542
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 2: it's been a long time since the Raiders pre leg snap.

543
00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:59,480
Speaker 2: Derek Carr was pretty good. He was never the same

544
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 2: guy after where he got the injury. Though I still

545
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:06,120
Speaker 2: have memories of MVP conversation Car, but that's true time ago.

546
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:13,359
Speaker 1: What's interesting about Mendoza is the number of games in which,

547
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 1: outside of the coaching, the play is called, you still

548
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:19,040
Speaker 1: have to deliver. I'm thinking about Penn State, I'm thinking

549
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:22,679
Speaker 1: about Oregon. I'm thinking about against Miami in the National

550
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:25,560
Speaker 1: Title Game where he made the play that had to

551
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 1: be made. If you've gotten that kind of coaching, that's

552
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 1: something that carries over. You're not going to lose that

553
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 1: instinct that lesson that learning and the ability to make

554
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:41,200
Speaker 1: that play if it's the right play call, you can

555
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:43,159
Speaker 1: deliver on that play call, because that's something that is

556
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:46,440
Speaker 1: now part of who he is as a quarterback, as

557
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:50,359
Speaker 1: a fan, and as someone who watched every single Indiana

558
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 1: football snap.

559
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,639
Speaker 3: I agree with what Derek just said. He got better.

560
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:59,200
Speaker 1: Like when they started talking about Fernando Mendoza's the Heisman Trophy,

561
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 1: I was like, what the guy Like, they're winning, but

562
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 1: they're not winning because of him. And then as the

563
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 1: season went on, he got better and better and all

564
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 1: of a sudden they were winning because of him at

565
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 1: the exact right times. And maybe he's just got that

566
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 1: next level instinct about winning and competing that can't be coached.

567
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 2: He didn't have the numbers, like you said, It was

568
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 2: the moments is what he had.

569
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,640
Speaker 3: So I agree he totally. It was the moment completely

570
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 3: the numbers.

571
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 2: But yeah, like we're talking about here, it's I'm nippicking.

572
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 2: I'm just getting out the people. The pretense of yes

573
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 2: is did Dani or Alaska go overboard saying that Tysons

574
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 2: was better him? Yes? But are there gms out there

575
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:42,359
Speaker 2: or scouts that have major questions about Fernando Mendoza. Yes,

576
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 2: And I know teams that they wouldn't be taking him

577
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:46,360
Speaker 2: in the top five, right, They would kick the cand

578
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 2: down the road for next year's draft class. And there's

579
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 2: nothing wrong with that, right. These these teams who all

580
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:54,280
Speaker 2: think they're geniuses, they're idiots. There's plenty of teams that

581
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 2: passed on my homes, that passed on Josh Allen because

582
00:27:56,720 --> 00:28:00,240
Speaker 2: they didn't trust that build. But yeah, like I talking

583
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 2: about Frenan Mendoza, I'm excited to seeing the next level.

584
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 2: I just I'm just worried that he, like Chad just

585
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:11,199
Speaker 2: said he had special moments and everything like that, is

586
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 2: he JJ McCarthy? That would be the fear. It's like,

587
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 2: was he a really good quarterback on a really good

588
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 2: stacked team who did make the plays when he had

589
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 2: to and won a national title? But was it all

590
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 2: smoke mirrors? And that's the fear? Like, do I think

591
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 2: Mendoz is better than JJ? Of course he's throwing it

592
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 2: ten times the amount of times JJ threw it in college.

593
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 2: But I just the winning stuff, unfortunately doesn't really change translate.

594
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,439
Speaker 2: The NFL like it. Just it's great. I care about it.

595
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 2: It's part of the it's part of what I like.

596
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 2: Mendoza book. I'm not going to get bogged down in it.

597
00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 1: I still get to Fernando Mendoza touchdown run against Miami

598
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 1: and my social feeds at least once a day with

599
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 1: a different song and a different at different slow motion paces.

600
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 3: And it's it just it makes me so happy.

601
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 4: I do you have them all bookmarked?

602
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 5: Like in the so instead of like a jolta caffeine

603
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 5: in the afternoon chat, you just turn on the highlight reel.

604
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 1: Seriously, it's like watching old like West Wings or Breaking Bads,

605
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 1: Like I'll just turn on a clip and it makes

606
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 1: me so freaking happy.

607
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 3: I cannot. I cannot tell.

608
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 2: You he's never even watched that ever. Again, he just

609
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 2: burned the tape. He was a season ended. He was

610
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 2: on to twenty twenty six. That's why I love your coach.

611
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 1: Signetti's out there. He's doing like savage. He is so

612
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 1: fucking good. He's doing press confidences right now where he's

613
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 1: now going after the old coach at TCU for making

614
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 1: snide remarks about I use new quarterback who was at

615
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,840
Speaker 1: TCU but threw a lot of picks, and the Signetti

616
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 1: was like, well, you know didn't he didn't have a

617
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 1: defense and he didn't have a running game, so you

618
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:50,479
Speaker 1: throw less picks when you got those two things. Like,

619
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:56,040
Speaker 1: he just he is awesome, He is unafraid. Let's do

620
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Speaker 1: in wants helped, call one eight hundred and nine with it.

653
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 1: In Ohio, call one eight hundred My reset gambling problem.

654
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:39,440
Speaker 1: Call one eight hundred Gambler In Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan,

655
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Tennessee and Virginia. I think it's really important

656
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 1: as we get closer to the draft talk a little

657
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 1: bit about strategy, and Simon, you just mentioned it at

658
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 1: the top of the show. It's really important to be

659
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 1: thinking about long shots bigger prices because it helps you build.

660
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 3: A offitable draft portfolio.

661
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 1: Derek, when you're putting together your bets and thinking about

662
00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 1: how you want to position yourself for draft night, what

663
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 1: is the makeup of your overall portfolio in terms of

664
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 1: like you think it's going to happen to I need

665
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 1: to have more long shots in here.

666
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 5: I think it's a very buffet, Like I want a

667
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 5: good mix of a lot of different angles, So you know,

668
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 5: you don't want to go just chasing outliers and your

669
00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 5: entire portfolio looks like plus one thousand bets and then

670
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 5: you're like, you know, we turn over the cards after

671
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:37,920
Speaker 5: thirty two picks and you're like, good lord, I went

672
00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 5: one for fifteen.

673
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 4: Oh, Like, you don't want that to happen.

674
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 5: So I think it's everything from are we getting good

675
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 5: prices and ahead of the market on some guys and

676
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 5: taking some leverage bets because of the volatility, and are

677
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 5: you mixing in the plus one thousands, the plus fourteen

678
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 5: hundreds and even you know, plus five hundreds, versus also

679
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 5: taking some plus and two hundred bets where you're either

680
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:03,400
Speaker 5: getting some.

681
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 4: Of the you know, like we already talked about from last.

682
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 5: Week's show, like plus one eighty five is now down

683
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 5: plus like plus one hundred is now like steamed up,

684
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:14,120
Speaker 5: and now it's minus one fifty, you know. So I

685
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 5: think it's building a varied portfolio of you have the

686
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 5: long shot plus one thousands and what have you and stuff.

687
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 5: If they hit, they can make your night go from

688
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 5: good to great, or they can make an okay night

689
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 5: just turning profitable. So I think it's really mixing and

690
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 5: matching a lot of different angles and looks.

691
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 3: Simon, Yeah.

692
00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 2: To me, the biggest thing for just the general public

693
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 2: out there is just fine mock draft guys you can trust,

694
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:46,480
Speaker 2: like am I here to kill mel Kuiper? No? But

695
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 2: if you're still trusting mel Kuiper, a man who's been

696
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 2: this business a long time, and you know, sure he

697
00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:56,120
Speaker 2: might know the no, but is he hungry? I don't

698
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 2: think he's that hungry. I want a hungry dog like

699
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:01,960
Speaker 2: Todd McShay. Last year he started a new company that

700
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 2: was a hungry dog. Last year. That man was putting

701
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 2: in work and he did pretty pretty damn good on

702
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 2: his mock draft. Daniel Daniel Jeremiah does pretty well in

703
00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:12,279
Speaker 2: his mock draft. Joe Klatt, you know, he's not an

704
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:15,279
Speaker 2: NFL guy, but he knows college football. He knows these

705
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:17,400
Speaker 2: guys in and out. That's another guy that you know

706
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 2: Coward has on his show. Listen to him. Hear what

707
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:21,840
Speaker 2: he's here, and hear what he says about these players,

708
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 2: And that to me is a big thing where the

709
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:26,799
Speaker 2: public there's so much good information out there now, you

710
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:28,600
Speaker 2: want to find the right guys you can trust to

711
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 2: give you that information. You want to build positions off

712
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 2: that stuff. So you know, to me, I'm trying my

713
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 2: best skip people of good information. I'll never be as

714
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:41,560
Speaker 2: plugged in as Daniel Jeremiah. Like this man, you know,

715
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:42,879
Speaker 2: I don't know if he's still working for the NFL

716
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:45,359
Speaker 2: networker now he's whether you spend whatever it is. He's

717
00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 2: the big dog. He gets really good info and he

718
00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 2: is playing a game. But he'll leave you guys bread clumbs.

719
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:52,799
Speaker 2: Like you see him consistently talking on a player and

720
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 2: a team. That's a bread clumb like that is someone

721
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 2: putting out signals there. So it's a lot of legwork. People,

722
00:34:58,680 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 2: If you would, like I said, the draft is whole,

723
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 2: but you should be listening to all these people's podcasts.

724
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 2: You should be checking out if they're running anything. You know,

725
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:08,640
Speaker 2: it brears right anything for us. I it's it's all there.

726
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:10,640
Speaker 2: These guys are all plugged in trying to give you information,

727
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,919
Speaker 2: and you know, sometimes you do need to trust your gut.

728
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:15,239
Speaker 2: And if I come in on you and I'm like,

729
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 2: this guy is saying this stuff because he's working with

730
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 2: this guy's agent and it's smokescreen, I wouldn't be listening

731
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 2: to that. I'd faded. We can make money that way too.

732
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 2: So that's the thing. It's like, I'm I'm working at all.

733
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 2: I'm working with it, public's working with it. I'm trying

734
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 2: to work stuff behind the closed doors. And like I said, people,

735
00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 2: you really need to be really high mind here. You

736
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:35,360
Speaker 2: need to be all in on information right now and

737
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 2: taking all in at once because everything matters. Every little

738
00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 2: thing really doesn't matter right now, and it's tons of

739
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:42,759
Speaker 2: bread crumbs. You got to really figure out what's what.

740
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:45,960
Speaker 5: Derek coming to your point real fast, Sorry, Jed, I

741
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:47,759
Speaker 5: wanted to add this too because I thought you brought

742
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 5: up something extremely valuable there. If we're looking at the

743
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:54,720
Speaker 5: bread crumbs. For me, it's fine with the mock drafts,

744
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 5: but I think everybody's going to go to the mock

745
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:58,759
Speaker 5: drafts too. It's the top fifty boards, man, that when

746
00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:01,720
Speaker 5: you see big movement on players, like where they bump

747
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:06,400
Speaker 5: up ten fifteen spots. Some of that can be some agents,

748
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:08,880
Speaker 5: team and stuff. Some of that is also following substance

749
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:11,439
Speaker 5: and what guys are hearing. So right now, if it's

750
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:14,319
Speaker 5: not the mock drafts that everybody's reading, check out the

751
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 5: top fifty boards and when you're making these lines of

752
00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 5: demarcation of the top thirty two guys that have jumped

753
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:23,319
Speaker 5: up massively, whether it's because you'll see movement, you'll see

754
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 5: big movement. And sometimes that's maybe Jeremiah is hearing stuff

755
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 5: around the league or other people are hearing stuff around

756
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:32,719
Speaker 5: the league. It's also maybe you know I was too

757
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 5: low on a guy, but you're trying to siphon off

758
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:38,720
Speaker 5: all of this stuff. I think the big board movement

759
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 5: is something that not a lot.

760
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:41,320
Speaker 4: Of people look at, and they should.

761
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 1: When you're looking at all of this stuff, Derek, how

762
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:48,240
Speaker 1: much do you how much do you refer to mock drafts?

763
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:52,440
Speaker 1: Are the mock drafts that you believe in more than others?

764
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 4: It just depends on sources.

765
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,480
Speaker 5: Like I will say, there are some that like where

766
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:01,799
Speaker 5: I pull them up and immediately I'm like, well, this

767
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:05,719
Speaker 5: is this is crap, Like you're not seeing like I'm

768
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 5: like trying to like follow the logic and thinking, and

769
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 5: I'm like, what, like are we addressing needs? Are we

770
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 5: getting a year ahead of needs? Is this something that

771
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:18,919
Speaker 5: even looks like it's plausible where I'm like, okay, never

772
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:23,319
Speaker 5: mind moving on. So it I'd say I kind of

773
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:25,520
Speaker 5: use them as casting a wide net and kind of

774
00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 5: look at like where you're seeing commonalities between a bunch

775
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 5: of different ones than saying, okay, read this one guy

776
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,239
Speaker 5: or two guys, because I think there's you know, there's

777
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:38,240
Speaker 5: a lot of smoke of mirrors with all of them.

778
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:41,480
Speaker 3: That's interesting, all right. Uh.

779
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 1: I feel like, listen, we're guilty of this too. It's

780
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:50,920
Speaker 1: the NFL draft and it's the NFL, so everybody wants

781
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 1: to talk about it as much as possible, dissected as

782
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:57,280
Speaker 1: much as possible. Barnwell our friend of the show, Bill Barnwell,

783
00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 1: just had a story come out on ESPN dot com

784
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 1: thirty two different first round trade scenarios, one for every pick.

785
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:09,880
Speaker 1: Obviously that's not something that's actionable, but it does make

786
00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:13,680
Speaker 1: us think about what makes the draft so unique and

787
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 1: sometimes infuriating as a betting event, because one or two

788
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 1: trades can change everything. Right if someone trades out of

789
00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:25,200
Speaker 1: the back of the first round and they trade to

790
00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 1: a team that needs a running back, all of a sudden, Simon,

791
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 1: there's two running backs in the first round.

792
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:29,239
Speaker 2: Right.

793
00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 1: Knowing that trades can happen, does that make long shots

794
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 1: a smarter approach?

795
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 3: Is it?

796
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 5: One?

797
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 3: Read?

798
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:41,279
Speaker 1: One reason to avoid paying huge juice on anything, Like

799
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:43,840
Speaker 1: we know there are nosher things when it comes to

800
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 1: the draft, So how do you account for trades?

801
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:46,479
Speaker 2: Derek?

802
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 3: You start, I.

803
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 5: Think looking at the trade market and the volatility. It's like,

804
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:54,920
Speaker 5: what do you think in your mind's eye or what

805
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:58,080
Speaker 5: are you hearing teams that are candidates to trade down?

806
00:38:58,120 --> 00:39:00,839
Speaker 5: And I think like every draft class is also its

807
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:04,480
Speaker 5: own organism of and especially speaking to this draft class,

808
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:07,600
Speaker 5: where we're all like okay, because you have it takes

809
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:09,920
Speaker 5: two to tango, not only does the team if they

810
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 5: want to trade down, you need a team that needs

811
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 5: to come up, And so it's like who are they

812
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:17,320
Speaker 5: clamoring for? Who are they coming up for? Are we

813
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:20,440
Speaker 5: going to see a lot of trades happen in particular classes,

814
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:23,800
Speaker 5: and some of that depends on, you know, the class itself.

815
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:25,719
Speaker 5: So it's kind of like you're looking just look at

816
00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:27,279
Speaker 5: the top of the board of this one. It's like

817
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,600
Speaker 5: Arizona is a team that where we're all like, you

818
00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:32,440
Speaker 5: know a lot of people of the chalk packers tackled,

819
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:34,359
Speaker 5: what if they don't go tackle? What if they trade back?

820
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 5: A lot of these things are in play, but it's

821
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:38,920
Speaker 5: like if that happens, what team is?

822
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 4: Who are they coming up for?

823
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 5: So you're looking at the draft class, it's like are

824
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:45,399
Speaker 5: there and and I like this class maybe a little

825
00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 5: bit more than most, but even I'm playing the game

826
00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 5: in my head of like, if a team's coming up,

827
00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 5: who are they coming up for? And is that even

828
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 5: a plausible situation? So I think there's definitely the way

829
00:39:57,719 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 5: that I kind of attack the trades is playing the

830
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:04,759
Speaker 5: leverage and some of the long shot stuff of certain markets,

831
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 5: and specifically the way that I'll look at it like

832
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 5: some of the if you're looking at a lot of

833
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:14,919
Speaker 5: these teams right now, and the teams that stick out

834
00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 5: to me of trade back candidates are the ones that

835
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 5: like the Commanders and other ones that like they have

836
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:23,759
Speaker 5: like their first round pick, but they don't have any

837
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:24,839
Speaker 5: like a second round pick.

838
00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:26,160
Speaker 4: They don't maybe pick it to the.

839
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 5: Third or the fourth round. So they look like the

840
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:31,200
Speaker 5: most logical trade back. But if they trade back, who's

841
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:33,040
Speaker 5: going in that slot? And how do you attack that?

842
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 5: So some of these teams, it's like if they trade back,

843
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 5: and I'll bring up one specifically, like the Buffalo Bills,

844
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:42,239
Speaker 5: like could they trade out of their first round pick?

845
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:45,320
Speaker 5: Like could they go wide receiver? How are you attacking

846
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 5: that right now? Looking at the markets right now, you like,

847
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:51,760
Speaker 5: I like looking at can they draft the wide receiver?

848
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:55,560
Speaker 5: Looking at that it's plus four seventy five. Just look

849
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:58,719
Speaker 5: staring at the board right now and again reading all

850
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:01,399
Speaker 5: the tea leaves, could they trade back? And they've had

851
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:04,799
Speaker 5: two wide receivers out of their tops. Out of their

852
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:07,160
Speaker 5: seven top thirty visits right now, two of those have

853
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:09,880
Speaker 5: been wide receivers Ben Chris Bell and Casey Concepcion.

854
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:12,040
Speaker 4: And looking at both of those players.

855
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 5: Okay, well the Bills, I mean, after their first round

856
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:17,520
Speaker 5: pick at twenty six, they don't have another freaking pick

857
00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:19,960
Speaker 5: until ninety one. So if they're coming in they're bringing

858
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:22,480
Speaker 5: these wide receivers in to talk to them. Okay, well

859
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:24,799
Speaker 5: they're not getting them in the third round. So if

860
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:26,759
Speaker 5: you want to attack that and say, okay, maybe they

861
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:29,920
Speaker 5: stick and pick at one, maybe they trade back. But

862
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:32,480
Speaker 5: if they're filling a need, whether it's those two wide

863
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:35,200
Speaker 5: receivers they've already had a visit with and in the

864
00:41:35,320 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 5: range that they go back into the first hop into

865
00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:40,399
Speaker 5: the second. If I'm looking at the board right now,

866
00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 5: which right now the favorites are, they go with a

867
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 5: defensive end, a cornerback O line that's a top three

868
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 5: on the board. Wide receiver is almost I mean it's

869
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:50,880
Speaker 5: plus four to seventy five plus five hundred and some books.

870
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:53,040
Speaker 5: If they trade out of that, but they still take

871
00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:55,640
Speaker 5: a wide receiver. So it's really it's building all of

872
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 5: this stuff and taking all the information and siphoning it

873
00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:01,920
Speaker 5: together when you're kind of looking at possible trade scenarios

874
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:04,880
Speaker 5: and how to attack the market, whether it's first position

875
00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:08,279
Speaker 5: picked players going in the top five to top ten,

876
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:10,880
Speaker 5: what the board looks like because most of it's steamed,

877
00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 5: and how you're kind of putting all that together.

878
00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 1: Simon where I think you said, you know, three weeks

879
00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:22,960
Speaker 1: out from the draft, maybe a little less. Have you

880
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:27,200
Speaker 1: seen since we spoke last week New Markets that you've

881
00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 1: decided to bet anything that has gotten interesting for you?

882
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 2: No? No, really, honestly, it's I've taken early position a

883
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:36,399
Speaker 2: little bit what we talked about last week, and it's

884
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:39,919
Speaker 2: really now it's you know, what are teams you because

885
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:42,239
Speaker 2: like I always talk about it, if you just think

886
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:44,279
Speaker 2: at least half the team's NFL are dumb, are going

887
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:47,480
Speaker 2: to do something stupid on Draft Day, you're usually proven, right,

888
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:50,360
Speaker 2: Like who saw Atlanta trading back into the first round

889
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:53,640
Speaker 2: to take a corner, right, It's these teams make these

890
00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:56,120
Speaker 2: crazy moves, Like I'm still not over the Jaguars. Another

891
00:42:56,120 --> 00:42:58,040
Speaker 2: the Jaguars got away with it with the Travis Hunter

892
00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:00,759
Speaker 2: move because they didn't make the playoffs and they did

893
00:43:00,760 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 2: get the right head coach. But you look back on that,

894
00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:05,920
Speaker 2: it's like, was that not one of the stupidest trades

895
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:08,320
Speaker 2: we've ever seen? Moving up to take Travis Hunter? So

896
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:10,600
Speaker 2: that's the thing. These teams fall in love with these

897
00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:13,520
Speaker 2: players and they do stupid stuff in this draft. The

898
00:43:13,520 --> 00:43:16,440
Speaker 2: more scouts I talked to, this isn't like a super

899
00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:20,400
Speaker 2: deep class, right, but the top is really good, Like

900
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:23,600
Speaker 2: there's some really talented, high level guys, like guys you

901
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:25,279
Speaker 2: want to go get in the top twenty. So that's

902
00:43:25,280 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 2: gonna be interesting. What teams are trying to move back

903
00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:29,440
Speaker 2: up to go get either off it's a lineman, a

904
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 2: d lineman, or what teams are gonna sit back in

905
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:34,680
Speaker 2: a stick receiver. That's why I do like doing the

906
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:38,000
Speaker 2: running back in wide receiver props because it's gonna come

907
00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:41,239
Speaker 2: down to that trade in right. My biggest burn I've

908
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:45,160
Speaker 2: ever had was t Higgins. I swore to Higgins was

909
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 2: gonna be taken the back of the first round, like

910
00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 2: I thought the Chiefs were gonna take them whoever was

911
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 2: going to take them, and no one did. Everyone passed

912
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:54,040
Speaker 2: on him. I think he fell to the second or

913
00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:55,799
Speaker 2: third pick, or maybe it was the first pick in

914
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:58,000
Speaker 2: the second round. That cost me a ton of money,

915
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 2: but I was proven right in his career. T Higgins

916
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 2: was a first round talent. My board wasn't wrong. So

917
00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 2: that's a tough part too, where it's like I'm doing

918
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:09,600
Speaker 2: self scouting, I'm going off other people's draft boards. Sometimes

919
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:11,720
Speaker 2: you can have the right read, but the teams just don't.

920
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:13,680
Speaker 2: It doesn't fall into place that way, right the team

921
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:15,759
Speaker 2: that trades back in the first round, they took an

922
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:18,759
Speaker 2: offensive tackle. They didn't take that sixth receiver that we

923
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 2: needed to win our bets. So that's why, like I

924
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:22,520
Speaker 2: always say, you want to get the plus number to

925
00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:25,000
Speaker 2: hedge against that long term. It's like, sure I got

926
00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:27,040
Speaker 2: burned that year. This year I already have a plus

927
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:29,520
Speaker 2: one to eighty bet on over five and a half receivers.

928
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:31,600
Speaker 2: Like that's how you ate away at that big that

929
00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:34,120
Speaker 2: juice over the years, and it's the same thing this year.

930
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 2: Like the more stuff I see, it seems like more

931
00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:38,799
Speaker 2: teams are desperate for that receiver that back end of

932
00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:42,279
Speaker 2: this round. Like there are six potentially seven first round

933
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:45,520
Speaker 2: receivers like that. People have talked about it's really it's

934
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:48,000
Speaker 2: a good receiver class chat. So that's why you know,

935
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:49,799
Speaker 2: like Derek talking about that, it's a good position to take.

936
00:44:49,840 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 2: You want to take a position on that number five

937
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 2: and a half at a plus number because we're seeing

938
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:57,319
Speaker 2: we don't know who the sixth or seventh receiver might be.

939
00:44:57,440 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 2: And that's that's exactly what you want. You don't want

940
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:01,400
Speaker 2: it just to be one guy dictated if we're going

941
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:03,000
Speaker 2: to win our bet. You want there to be maybe

942
00:45:03,320 --> 00:45:05,320
Speaker 2: two guys that teams could fall in love with and

943
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:07,080
Speaker 2: their fight for the end of the first round. So,

944
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:09,800
Speaker 2: like I said, that's really important stuff. You're building a

945
00:45:09,800 --> 00:45:12,200
Speaker 2: heavy positions in the draft. You really want to know

946
00:45:12,200 --> 00:45:14,759
Speaker 2: with those exact things. You want to know, are there

947
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:17,480
Speaker 2: seven eight receivers that people love or is this a

948
00:45:17,560 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 2: week class or are there five definite first round perceivers

949
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:23,000
Speaker 2: and then one maybe guy? Because if there's one maybe guy,

950
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 2: I honestly wouldn't make this bet. The fact that they

951
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:27,240
Speaker 2: say there might be two, maybe even three other guys

952
00:45:27,480 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 2: that could sneak into the end of this first round.

953
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:31,640
Speaker 2: Chad's that to me is like, how do you not

954
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:34,320
Speaker 2: take a position on this bet? It's just it feels

955
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 2: like there's tons of upside there with a little downside

956
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:36,920
Speaker 2: at a plus number.

957
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:39,359
Speaker 4: Give your there accounts, man, you got to give yourself out.

958
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:42,600
Speaker 3: Eric before we get out of here. Get the last word.

959
00:45:43,000 --> 00:45:46,200
Speaker 1: Any new markets, anything that popped up that was intriguing

960
00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:48,719
Speaker 1: to you in the last seven days the.

961
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:52,920
Speaker 5: Only thing and again following breadcrumbs with some of the

962
00:45:52,960 --> 00:45:55,480
Speaker 5: top thirty visits and talking about bringing this back to

963
00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 5: teams that have only one pick, like or pick in

964
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:01,080
Speaker 5: the first round but then don't pick again into the

965
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:01,720
Speaker 5: third round.

966
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:03,600
Speaker 4: The commanders are very interesting.

967
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:06,960
Speaker 5: So I'm taking a sprinkle because right now with the

968
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:09,560
Speaker 5: seventh overall pick, a lot of people are mocking them

969
00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:13,920
Speaker 5: like a defensive players. Whether it's a lot of it's

970
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:15,799
Speaker 5: sunny styles, a lot of its edge, and a lot

971
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 5: of it's because you look at their depth chart, it

972
00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 5: is berest of.

973
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:21,640
Speaker 4: Wide receiver talent.

974
00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 5: There is nothing outside of Terry McLaurin, like we're talking

975
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:28,000
Speaker 5: about Luke McCaffrey and who knows what in chickacon Quo

976
00:46:28,440 --> 00:46:32,160
Speaker 5: catching passes from Jayen jayde Daniels this year. So I've

977
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 5: taken a sniff on them, taken possibly because if you

978
00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:37,759
Speaker 5: look a wide receiver or at least like there's a

979
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:39,839
Speaker 5: few different ways to look at this. So top thirty

980
00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:41,880
Speaker 5: visits they've had right now with guys that could go

981
00:46:41,920 --> 00:46:44,279
Speaker 5: inside that top ten range. At the seventh overall pick,

982
00:46:44,560 --> 00:46:48,120
Speaker 5: they've met with Makayle Lemon, Mansur Delaine, and Carnal Tait.

983
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:51,440
Speaker 5: You're getting good numbers on each one of those guys,

984
00:46:51,480 --> 00:46:54,640
Speaker 5: like Carneal Tate's plus four hundred. If he goes inside

985
00:46:54,680 --> 00:46:56,560
Speaker 5: the top five and stuff like that, he might not

986
00:46:56,600 --> 00:46:58,720
Speaker 5: even be on the board. So that brings in somebody

987
00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:01,280
Speaker 5: like a Mikayle Lemon, who is at plus sixteen hundred

988
00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:03,920
Speaker 5: right now. So if you want to take a position

989
00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:05,479
Speaker 5: on that, I'm not saying I'm going out and bet

990
00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:07,160
Speaker 5: one two units on it, but like a half in

991
00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:11,440
Speaker 5: it fine, like at plus sixteen hundred definitely, and Manser Delane,

992
00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:14,920
Speaker 5: like again matching up their depth chart. They've added defensive

993
00:47:14,960 --> 00:47:18,919
Speaker 5: line help. They have been asking their corners to play out,

994
00:47:18,960 --> 00:47:21,520
Speaker 5: like Mike Sanders still is not a perimeter corner. Put

995
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:23,840
Speaker 5: him back to nickel. They still have a need and

996
00:47:23,920 --> 00:47:25,640
Speaker 5: a lot of what Dan Quinn wants to do, whether

997
00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:28,960
Speaker 5: it's zone coverage, man coverage stuff. Marshawn Lattimore was cooked,

998
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:32,080
Speaker 5: he couldn't do that. Manson Delane to go at pick

999
00:47:32,160 --> 00:47:35,680
Speaker 5: seven is plus five hundred. So whether you wanted to

1000
00:47:35,719 --> 00:47:37,880
Speaker 5: spray the board with this, you wanted to take a position,

1001
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:40,440
Speaker 5: whether it's Cardinal Tate at plus four hundred at pick seven,

1002
00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:42,480
Speaker 5: Delane at plus five hundred, or you want to go

1003
00:47:42,520 --> 00:47:45,280
Speaker 5: at the long shot of mckaya limit at plus sixteen hundred,

1004
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:48,799
Speaker 5: because again, a lot of what I'm hearing out there

1005
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:51,200
Speaker 5: is Carnal Tate could go higher than what people are expected.

1006
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:54,359
Speaker 5: I push back on that a little bit because I'm like, dude,

1007
00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:56,799
Speaker 5: he's always been a top ten pick of we talking

1008
00:47:56,800 --> 00:47:59,440
Speaker 5: about top ten or now top five. I mean, you

1009
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:01,120
Speaker 5: can make a case for the Giants, you can make

1010
00:48:01,160 --> 00:48:03,680
Speaker 5: a case for the Tennessee Titans to take him at

1011
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:04,359
Speaker 5: four or five.

1012
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:06,120
Speaker 4: If that's the case, he's off the board.

1013
00:48:06,640 --> 00:48:08,640
Speaker 5: And then if mackayle Lemon is sitting there and he's

1014
00:48:08,640 --> 00:48:10,600
Speaker 5: at the top of the board, and we've already seen

1015
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:13,880
Speaker 5: Adam Peterson company value the type of skill set of

1016
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:16,640
Speaker 5: somebody that can play the underneath get jackyards with them

1017
00:48:16,640 --> 00:48:20,320
Speaker 5: bringing in Debo. Unfortunately, Devo is not Debo of prime

1018
00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:23,000
Speaker 5: part of his career at this point, so there's a

1019
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:25,319
Speaker 5: lot of proof of concept as well as reading some

1020
00:48:25,360 --> 00:48:27,879
Speaker 5: of the tea leaves of taking positions on a number

1021
00:48:27,920 --> 00:48:28,239
Speaker 5: of guys.

1022
00:48:28,239 --> 00:48:34,279
Speaker 1: At pick seven, Derek Brown bringing it you are this

1023
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:40,640
Speaker 1: podcast's number one overall draft pick for Draft covered Fantasy

1024
00:48:41,040 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 1: Pros podcast. Our friends at the Volume listen. Thanks for

1025
00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:49,400
Speaker 1: coming on, brother, You're gonna come on again. This has

1026
00:48:49,440 --> 00:48:53,720
Speaker 1: been Sherper Square, part of the Volume podcast Network Watcher.

1027
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:56,640
Speaker 1: Listen on YouTube at Shepper Square. Like this video, subscribe

1028
00:48:56,640 --> 00:48:59,319
Speaker 1: to the channel, download us some Spotify, Apple Pods wherever

1029
00:48:59,320 --> 00:49:01,959
Speaker 1: you get your pods. Review, subscribe, leave us five stars,

1030
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:04,800
Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until next time.

1031
00:49:05,520 --> 00:49:07,480
Speaker 1: I love you.

1032
00:49:07,560 --> 00:49:11,440
Speaker 4: In yesterday's draft, everybody's sizing up the winners and the losers.

1033
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:14,560
Speaker 3: The winner yesterday was honesty.