WEBVTT - Week 9 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 63) 0:00:13.760 --> 0:00:16.400 Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the 0:00:16.440 --> 0:00:19.119 Betting Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host Dan Harris with 0:00:19.239 --> 0:00:21.280 me is Matt Prout. Can find us on Twitter at 0:00:21.360 --> 0:00:24.360 Dan Harris Ady and at Sports Talk Matt. Matt, how 0:00:24.400 --> 0:00:25.080 are you today? 0:00:25.280 --> 0:00:28.360 I'm good. I'm really good. It's it's energized. I'm excited 0:00:28.360 --> 0:00:31.200 to talk football today. This slate is not that pretty 0:00:31.200 --> 0:00:33.839 with COVID problems everywhere, but yeah, let's go. 0:00:34.120 --> 0:00:35.680 We're gonna have to do a lot of dancing in 0:00:35.720 --> 0:00:37.800 this slate, but let's get to it. A couple of 0:00:37.840 --> 0:00:41.000 things before we start. I remind everybody about Discord. Come 0:00:41.040 --> 0:00:43.120 and talk with us, talk with other people at are 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:47.000 interested in sports betting, bettingpros dot com slash chat. Matt, 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:48.360 I don't know how many people are in there at 0:00:48.400 --> 0:00:50.520 this point. I mean, it was six fifty seven. 0:00:51.080 --> 0:00:53.319 It's over eight hundred. I'm my last look, it's over 0:00:53.360 --> 0:00:55.960 eight hundred. But it's at any given time during a 0:00:56.000 --> 0:00:58.400 primetime game, you're gonna find about two hundred and three 0:00:58.480 --> 0:01:01.560 hundred people actively in there right now. So it's pretty cool. 0:01:01.800 --> 0:01:03.760 Just come talk about sports betting, man, whatever you guys 0:01:03.760 --> 0:01:06.000 want to talk about any sport, anything that's going on. 0:01:06.240 --> 0:01:09.399 We've got channels for everything. Second, our prop bet cheat 0:01:09.440 --> 0:01:13.360 cheat betting pros dot Com slash props. It compares consensus 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:16.160 projections to the available props in the market, and it 0:01:16.160 --> 0:01:19.800 gives you recommendations. It's pretty valuable if you like prop betting. 0:01:19.920 --> 0:01:23.000 All right to three and last week top three bets 0:01:23.040 --> 0:01:23.520 went three and. 0:01:23.480 --> 0:01:25.200 Oh, top three bets are the thing. It's ranked in 0:01:25.360 --> 0:01:29.160 order of how good the projections are. Essentially the delta. Sorry, man, 0:01:29.200 --> 0:01:31.360 I know you like the word. The delta between that are, 0:01:31.520 --> 0:01:33.920 you know, the consensus projections and the actual line. And 0:01:33.959 --> 0:01:36.720 so it gives you recommendations based on the strength, based 0:01:36.760 --> 0:01:38.840 on the difference and the projections and the actual line. 0:01:39.000 --> 0:01:41.160 All right, So we're gonna get to this weekend. One thing, 0:01:41.160 --> 0:01:42.400 by the way, before we get to it, Matt and 0:01:42.400 --> 0:01:46.080 I were considering placing tonight's game in the contest because 0:01:46.120 --> 0:01:48.240 we are able to do that. In the DraftKings contest. 0:01:48.480 --> 0:01:50.040 The spread was what did I say, Matt, five and 0:01:50.080 --> 0:01:53.400 a half At the time, it was, it's now moved 0:01:53.680 --> 0:01:56.680 more in the direction of green bed at six and 0:01:56.720 --> 0:01:59.440 a half. I think now I don't know seven seven, right, 0:01:59.480 --> 0:02:01.800 And again that's largely because of all the injuries. But 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:04.200 in the end, Matt and I just decided, I don't know, Man, 0:02:04.320 --> 0:02:05.200 didn't feel right right. 0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:06.760 I mean no, if I was gonna bet it, I 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:08.680 would actually would have flipped around. I would have bet 0:02:08.680 --> 0:02:11.400 Sam fran plus seven. Yeah, so I changed a lot. 0:02:11.440 --> 0:02:13.440 I went and looked at just the metrics as to 0:02:14.480 --> 0:02:16.960 what the defense has been looking like for green Bay 0:02:17.080 --> 0:02:19.560 and if they can run the ball at all on 0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:22.399 Thursday night, I think Sam Franz live to win the game. 0:02:22.480 --> 0:02:24.960 So it's going to be if I was going to 0:02:24.960 --> 0:02:27.440 bet it, and I didn't bet it. I do think 0:02:27.440 --> 0:02:30.639 green Bay wins. I teased it down on the Daily Juice. 0:02:30.680 --> 0:02:32.200 You guys heard me. I did a teaser. I teased 0:02:32.200 --> 0:02:34.000 it down to minus one for green Bay and then 0:02:34.040 --> 0:02:36.240 took the under. So I do think green Bay wins 0:02:36.280 --> 0:02:37.480 the game. But I think they're going to have a 0:02:37.520 --> 0:02:38.840 real tough fight on their hands. 0:02:39.160 --> 0:02:41.639 Yeah, they are going to be able to run the 0:02:41.680 --> 0:02:43.720 ball because you can against green Bay's defense, and they 0:02:43.760 --> 0:02:46.880 also have nobody to throw the ball to because everybody 0:02:46.919 --> 0:02:48.400 is I can't believe they didn't move this game, man, 0:02:48.480 --> 0:02:52.720 But that's a whole Yeah, money Thursday, I get it. Anyway, 0:02:52.760 --> 0:02:54.360 with the DraftKings of contest, we're in a little bit 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:56.799 of a rut okay, second straight week two and three, 0:02:56.880 --> 0:02:59.239 we're now twenty one and nineteen overall, fifty two and 0:02:59.240 --> 0:03:01.760 a half percent on the season. We're basically right in 0:03:01.800 --> 0:03:04.359 the middle of where you know the contestants are. We 0:03:04.560 --> 0:03:08.079 literally fiftieth play fifty percent place. We did hit on 0:03:08.120 --> 0:03:10.480 the Raiders, the Raiders getting two and a half from 0:03:10.480 --> 0:03:12.920 the Broncos, which is from the Browns part of me, 0:03:13.000 --> 0:03:15.200 which was a game that we both really liked coming 0:03:15.200 --> 0:03:17.760 into the week, and the Chiefs laying nineteen and a 0:03:17.800 --> 0:03:20.120 half to the Jets, which we both kind of laughed 0:03:20.120 --> 0:03:23.000 at when we chose. But we lost on the Ravens 0:03:23.120 --> 0:03:25.399 laying three and a half to the Steelers, Packers laying 0:03:25.400 --> 0:03:27.320 six and a half to the Vikings, and the Saints 0:03:27.440 --> 0:03:29.320 laying three and a half to the Bears. They won 0:03:29.360 --> 0:03:31.800 by a field goal, so legitimately halfway point three hundred 0:03:31.800 --> 0:03:33.440 and forty fifth out of six hundred and eighty nine. 0:03:33.520 --> 0:03:36.160 Legitimately the exact halfway point. People in the money right 0:03:36.160 --> 0:03:38.320 now are about sixty five percent, So we really got 0:03:38.360 --> 0:03:40.160 to get on the horse we got to get back going. 0:03:40.480 --> 0:03:42.840 Move past just three and two. Let's go four and one, 0:03:42.920 --> 0:03:46.320 five and zero, let's really get going. So Matt's triggy week. 0:03:46.560 --> 0:03:49.120 As we said, we've got COVID concerns everywhere. Started us 0:03:49.120 --> 0:03:50.680 off with your best pick and then I'll give mine. 0:03:50.800 --> 0:03:53.680 All right, my favorite play of the week. And this 0:03:53.760 --> 0:03:57.080 number actually is moving, and I actually am going to 0:03:57.160 --> 0:03:58.560 get a better number to bet on it. But for 0:03:58.600 --> 0:04:02.600 the purposes of the contest, we're going to fade the 0:04:02.640 --> 0:04:06.200 team that I like the best. Last week, the Chargers 0:04:06.240 --> 0:04:08.760 are at home against the Raiders and they're laying one 0:04:08.760 --> 0:04:11.560 and a half points. The Chargers so far this year 0:04:11.560 --> 0:04:14.160 are four to and one against the number they had 0:04:14.280 --> 0:04:18.000 covered every game before or sorry, they had covered four 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:20.719 straight games before what happened in the end zone against 0:04:20.720 --> 0:04:24.160 Denver where they choked. Totally understand it. This is a 0:04:24.200 --> 0:04:27.880 team that can't finish. However, this is a classic letdown 0:04:27.920 --> 0:04:31.120 spot after a big road victory and a chance, in 0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:34.760 my opinion, for the Chargers to kind of get themselves 0:04:34.839 --> 0:04:37.640 going against the defense that is hard hitting, but they 0:04:37.680 --> 0:04:40.279 can be scored upon when you have nice weather. The 0:04:40.279 --> 0:04:42.919 reason why I love the Raiders against the Browns was 0:04:42.920 --> 0:04:45.560 because of the weather and the running attack. That's exactly 0:04:45.600 --> 0:04:48.640 what happened, low scoring games sixteen to sixth. Right, the 0:04:48.680 --> 0:04:51.240 final score was a good win for the Raiders. There 0:04:51.640 --> 0:04:54.200 bounce back spot for the Chargers at home after their 0:04:54.200 --> 0:04:57.080 tough loss to the Broncos. I like the Chargers laying 0:04:57.120 --> 0:04:58.520 one and a half the best this week. 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:01.200 I cannot believe this is your favorite game. Yep, Like, 0:05:01.240 --> 0:05:03.279 I really can't. Number one, I thought you'd be on 0:05:03.279 --> 0:05:04.760 the other side public is. 0:05:04.760 --> 0:05:06.839 It's such a public play. Everyone in the public's on 0:05:06.839 --> 0:05:07.320 the Raiders. 0:05:08.680 --> 0:05:12.960 Number two, the Chargers, Like essentially, you need the Chargers 0:05:12.960 --> 0:05:15.760 to win this game, and the Chargers are just masters 0:05:16.120 --> 0:05:18.839 even when they should win games and giving away games. 0:05:19.080 --> 0:05:22.000 So I don't I agree with you in the sort 0:05:22.000 --> 0:05:24.640 of you know, sell high here on the Raiders with 0:05:24.720 --> 0:05:28.400 this game. But I'm having trouble like getting behind a 0:05:28.520 --> 0:05:30.400 Charger team, Like you know, your number one pick is 0:05:30.440 --> 0:05:34.200 to back a team essentially to win that legitimately the 0:05:34.240 --> 0:05:37.080 thing it does best is blow fourth quarter wins. You 0:05:37.120 --> 0:05:38.480 know you're you're not worried here. 0:05:38.760 --> 0:05:40.520 No, I'm not worried because I don't think you can 0:05:40.560 --> 0:05:42.800 do it. I don't believe that Anthony Lynn and this 0:05:42.839 --> 0:05:45.360 team is gonna consistently do that every single week, and 0:05:45.400 --> 0:05:48.600 it's been crazy. At some point, this team's gonna figure 0:05:48.640 --> 0:05:51.119 out how to win games. And I think at home 0:05:51.440 --> 0:05:53.840 in a divisional game, where right now in Vegas it's 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:56.360 a pick. Everyone's coming in here on the Raiders. It's 0:05:56.680 --> 0:05:59.160 a crazy, big public play. I'm gonna wait and I'm 0:05:59.160 --> 0:06:01.159 gonna bet this thing when I get plus money in Vegas, 0:06:01.160 --> 0:06:03.200 because I guarantee you it's gonna be plus one plus 0:06:03.200 --> 0:06:05.920 two at kickoff for the Chargers at home, so I'll 0:06:05.920 --> 0:06:07.760 have a home dog. But I do I think they 0:06:07.839 --> 0:06:09.039 win the game by three or more. 0:06:09.400 --> 0:06:11.240 All right, I'll put it on the maybe list because 0:06:11.240 --> 0:06:13.720 it was It definitely wasn't a wasn't one that I 0:06:13.800 --> 0:06:16.440 was against. I didn't have a good feel for it, 0:06:16.440 --> 0:06:19.360 and I you'd come in on the Raiders, and even 0:06:19.480 --> 0:06:21.080 then I was like, I'm the I have like a 0:06:21.080 --> 0:06:23.120 bucket of games mat that I'm gonna that. I say, 0:06:23.320 --> 0:06:25.400 I'm gonna let Matt try to talk me into one 0:06:25.440 --> 0:06:27.039 of these games, and that was one of them. But 0:06:27.480 --> 0:06:30.039 I think you're crazy, but I don't. I mean, it's 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:32.480 I I'm not as much as I think you're crazy, 0:06:32.720 --> 0:06:34.920 I'm not taking off the table because I do think 0:06:34.960 --> 0:06:37.440 that at least when I analyze the game from a 0:06:37.440 --> 0:06:40.080 pure betting perspective, like what's the right approach to take 0:06:40.320 --> 0:06:42.320 in these games, it would be this. It would be 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:44.240 sort of the byless I'll high so on the maybe, 0:06:44.279 --> 0:06:46.000 we'll put it on the maybe. I'm just I'm running down. 0:06:46.000 --> 0:06:47.720 They also are zero and three as a favorite, by 0:06:47.760 --> 0:06:49.279 the way, so that they're due to win a game. 0:06:49.320 --> 0:06:53.159 Here the Raiders are owing three. So the Chargers are 0:06:53.200 --> 0:06:55.400 rowing three as favorites the season. 0:06:55.160 --> 0:06:57.760 And you like that, yes, because they're doing a game 0:06:57.839 --> 0:07:00.359 all right? That this is more love for the Charges 0:07:00.360 --> 0:07:03.440 that I expected my favorite pick, and I have a 0:07:03.480 --> 0:07:07.120 couple here actually that I like. I'm surprised this wasn't 0:07:07.320 --> 0:07:10.520 your number one pick because of how much you despise 0:07:11.200 --> 0:07:13.720 the Bills and it was Seattle getting two and a 0:07:13.760 --> 0:07:14.880 half from Bills. 0:07:14.920 --> 0:07:17.280 No, I'm with you, that's fine. It's on my list. 0:07:17.680 --> 0:07:19.720 Yeah, so all right, so I'll probably put that one in. 0:07:19.760 --> 0:07:23.360 I mean, here's the deal. I don't feel exactly the 0:07:23.400 --> 0:07:25.720 same way about the Bills that you do, but I definitely, 0:07:26.280 --> 0:07:29.720 especially lately, I'm gonna I'm gonna give you some props, Matt. 0:07:29.800 --> 0:07:31.880 I I in the beginning of the season, I was 0:07:31.920 --> 0:07:35.200 teasing you way too much about the Bills. But every 0:07:35.200 --> 0:07:37.840 time you see Josh Allen, he looks exactly now like 0:07:37.880 --> 0:07:39.800 he did last year, Like this is the exact same 0:07:39.840 --> 0:07:41.760 thing as last year. Now there are a couple of, 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:45.240 you know, worry spots and that I think part of 0:07:45.240 --> 0:07:47.280 the issue has been that John Brown either has been 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:49.600 inactive or has not been healthy. And I think he's 0:07:49.640 --> 0:07:51.480 healthy now. I think he's good to go. I think 0:07:51.480 --> 0:07:53.960 with the three receivers Basiley being the third and Digs, 0:07:54.280 --> 0:07:55.680 that they are going to be able to move the ball. 0:07:55.720 --> 0:08:00.800 But if you're telling me that I'm gonna get Seattle 0:08:00.960 --> 0:08:05.440 and Russell Wilson getting points with Jamal Adams back, I mean, 0:08:05.600 --> 0:08:09.120 I get that Chris Carson probably won't be active for 0:08:09.160 --> 0:08:12.200 this game, but I don't really think it matters. I 0:08:12.200 --> 0:08:13.880 think I'll be able to pass as much as you want, 0:08:13.920 --> 0:08:16.800 so you're giving me Seattle. It's actually what's interesting is 0:08:16.840 --> 0:08:19.640 that the consensus Ligne right now Matt has moved to three. 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:22.080 So that's interesting to me, is it? What is it 0:08:22.080 --> 0:08:23.840 in the circa is it three or two and a half. 0:08:23.920 --> 0:08:25.880 I think it's two and a half as well in circa. 0:08:26.480 --> 0:08:28.840 But if you look at just Seattle against the spread 0:08:28.880 --> 0:08:31.040 so far this year, they're five and two against the spread. 0:08:31.080 --> 0:08:34.200 They are one in two over the last three, so 0:08:34.240 --> 0:08:37.120 you might say, well, you know, people are figuring them out. 0:08:37.200 --> 0:08:39.320 But I just think when you look at that Buffalo 0:08:39.320 --> 0:08:42.839 Bill's defense, they're horrific and they can't stop the run 0:08:42.960 --> 0:08:44.720 or the pass or Okay, I guess they're better against 0:08:44.720 --> 0:08:46.440 the run than there against the past, But I just 0:08:46.480 --> 0:08:49.040 think DK Metcalf is playing on just on different level 0:08:49.120 --> 0:08:51.360 right now. And I love the fact that the defense 0:08:51.440 --> 0:08:54.000 is getting healthy here, and I just think Josh Allen 0:08:54.080 --> 0:08:56.480 is good for one or two turnovers a game. And 0:08:56.600 --> 0:08:58.440 they should have lost to the Patriots. I mean this 0:08:58.520 --> 0:09:01.199 is both these teams should have lost to the Patriots 0:09:01.360 --> 0:09:03.880 and the Patriots. I mean they should have lost, you know, 0:09:04.080 --> 0:09:06.560 last play the game in Seattle, last play or second 0:09:06.600 --> 0:09:08.760 and last play of the game in Buffalo, and both 0:09:08.800 --> 0:09:11.320 times the defense made plays. So I mean it's it 0:09:11.440 --> 0:09:13.920 is funny to look at both these teams and go, Okay, 0:09:14.000 --> 0:09:16.280 they are beatable both at home and on the road. 0:09:16.320 --> 0:09:19.360 But I got Russ better quarterback. I'm not a big 0:09:19.400 --> 0:09:22.880 fan of McDermott. I I like Pete Carroll enough. Better 0:09:22.960 --> 0:09:25.800 coach on Seattle side, better quarterback on Seattle side. 0:09:25.880 --> 0:09:28.120 I'm sure it'll be close, because every Seattle game is close. 0:09:28.160 --> 0:09:30.160 But you know, Jamal Adams coming back here. I just 0:09:30.520 --> 0:09:33.200 I think they win this game. And without fans in Buffalo, 0:09:33.240 --> 0:09:35.160 it just that place doesn't scare me that much. So 0:09:35.240 --> 0:09:36.800 all right, all right, it in, go ahead, what's your 0:09:36.800 --> 0:09:37.240 next one? 0:09:37.720 --> 0:09:41.640 Okay? So how do you feel about a play that 0:09:42.200 --> 0:09:45.360 we don't know yet about what's happening with the quarterback 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:46.199 spot with Detroit? 0:09:47.640 --> 0:09:47.960 Okay? 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:52.440 So you are are you comfortable saying that Matthew Stafford 0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:55.400 is not going to play for the Detroit Lions? Now? 0:09:55.600 --> 0:09:57.240 Actually I think he is going to play. 0:09:57.360 --> 0:09:58.439 You do think he's going to play. 0:09:58.520 --> 0:10:00.400 So here's the deal. This is what I'm nderstand that 0:10:00.559 --> 0:10:03.120 you correct me if I'm wrong. Okay, he's been deemed 0:10:03.120 --> 0:10:06.120 a close contact. He doesn't right a positive test. If 0:10:06.120 --> 0:10:09.520 he's cleared by Sunday morning. If he doesn't have a 0:10:09.520 --> 0:10:12.080 positive test or whatever by Sunday morning, he can play. 0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:13.679 Right, yes, but he's not practicing. 0:10:14.040 --> 0:10:14.439 Okay. 0:10:14.520 --> 0:10:17.000 So he can't be around Anyboddy. He is suspected to 0:10:17.040 --> 0:10:21.200 being positive for COVID nineteen uh suspected. He doesn't have 0:10:21.280 --> 0:10:23.760 it confirmed test, but he's in close contact. So he's 0:10:23.760 --> 0:10:27.280 testing being isolated. He's being pulled away. Okay, his wife 0:10:27.280 --> 0:10:29.880 and his wife confirmed that they were in close contact 0:10:29.920 --> 0:10:32.560 with somebody who had who is positive for COVID. 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:35.160 Okay, all right. So but if he if he does 0:10:35.200 --> 0:10:37.800 get if he doesn't test positive before Sunday, he does 0:10:37.840 --> 0:10:40.280 get to play, right, I believe he does, yes, Okay, 0:10:40.559 --> 0:10:43.640 so but let's talk about it. This is Minnesota, by 0:10:43.640 --> 0:10:45.120 the way, I forgot. I meant to mention it before. 0:10:45.160 --> 0:10:46.880 That's seventy four percent of the experts in our bed 0:10:46.920 --> 0:10:50.360 analyzer are favoring Seattle with and now it's three point spreads. 0:10:50.360 --> 0:10:52.000 It's a little bit better. But either way, I do 0:10:52.040 --> 0:10:54.680 think they can. Okay, So this is Minnesota laying three 0:10:54.720 --> 0:10:57.120 and a half right to the Lions in Minnesota. Go ahead, 0:10:57.120 --> 0:10:58.960 talk me through it then, So this is only for 0:10:59.040 --> 0:11:01.240 you if through Stafford doesn't. 0:11:01.280 --> 0:11:04.080 It's not only I could still pick the Vikings even 0:11:04.080 --> 0:11:06.320 without him, but I feel even better. The reason why 0:11:06.360 --> 0:11:08.800 it's one number two play is because of the fact 0:11:08.840 --> 0:11:11.280 that I look at that and I say, okay, I 0:11:11.360 --> 0:11:14.160 believe Matthew Stafford. If nothing less, he hasn't been practicing. 0:11:14.480 --> 0:11:16.960 And these teams are very distracted. You're on the road, 0:11:17.040 --> 0:11:19.480 so you're very careful and cautious because if he's testing 0:11:19.520 --> 0:11:21.439 negative and he can't be around his teammates because he 0:11:21.480 --> 0:11:23.600 might be positive, and like when does he travel? How 0:11:23.640 --> 0:11:26.400 does he travel that? Just so many things go into 0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:29.160 this when it's your starting quarterback who can't have meetings 0:11:29.200 --> 0:11:31.480 besides zoom, meetings to get ready to get ready for 0:11:31.480 --> 0:11:33.640 a football game. And the Vikings have their backs are 0:11:33.640 --> 0:11:36.520 against the wall. But they're four and three against the 0:11:36.559 --> 0:11:39.160 spread this year. All right, it's a game that the 0:11:39.240 --> 0:11:43.000 Vikings have to have. They are fighting for their lives. 0:11:43.240 --> 0:11:46.240 They showed up, they ran the ball, Dalvin Cook looks great. 0:11:47.400 --> 0:11:49.520 I just think the I think the Vikings might be 0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:52.920 on a heater here and a chance at home to 0:11:52.960 --> 0:11:56.280 get a w and then off Stafford doesn't play. I 0:11:56.400 --> 0:11:57.160 love this pick. 0:11:57.400 --> 0:12:00.800 Okay, can you name me a healthy member of the 0:12:00.920 --> 0:12:01.800 Vikings secondary? 0:12:01.920 --> 0:12:03.520 No, because there isn't one. I mean, I mean, it's 0:12:03.559 --> 0:12:05.559 it's absolutely they have. But but we have to see 0:12:05.559 --> 0:12:07.280 about COVID. They have two guys on the COVID list, 0:12:07.520 --> 0:12:09.520 so they could come back by the time they play. 0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:12.800 So we'll see what happens with COVID nineteen and the Vikings. 0:12:12.840 --> 0:12:15.200 But I mean, I I just think this is to 0:12:15.280 --> 0:12:18.720 me starting quarterbacks in the NFL when they have trouble 0:12:18.800 --> 0:12:20.960 or problems. I don't know. I mean, I think this 0:12:21.080 --> 0:12:23.160 is a chance for Dalvin Cook to run the football 0:12:23.200 --> 0:12:26.200 here and to keep going hot. Not the same way 0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:28.360 he was against the Packers, but I think this is 0:12:28.600 --> 0:12:30.560 a chance for this Vikings team. Look, the coaching set 0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:32.760 might be coaching for their jobs. They can't go out 0:12:32.800 --> 0:12:35.880 and love you win two three games this year, so you. 0:12:35.840 --> 0:12:38.240 Know they don't. They can win, but not cover. If 0:12:38.240 --> 0:12:39.120 it's more you know, it's tru. 0:12:39.000 --> 0:12:41.520 True three and a half, I get the hook, but 0:12:41.600 --> 0:12:43.280 that's where that's where the stafford comes in. 0:12:43.679 --> 0:12:46.120 So okay, all right. So and there is no Kenny 0:12:46.120 --> 0:12:48.720 Galladay in this game, so that that's a big deal. 0:12:48.760 --> 0:12:50.839 I mean, if you've watched Marvin Jones play, I'm sure 0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:52.600 he'll score two touchdowns just because that's you know, what 0:12:52.640 --> 0:12:54.959 Marvin Jones does. Whenever you're kind of like, I'm done 0:12:55.000 --> 0:12:57.280 with Marvin Jones and T. J. Hockenson is legit, and 0:12:57.360 --> 0:13:00.760 I do like Deandrew Swift. I I I'm not fully 0:13:00.800 --> 0:13:02.520 opposed to it. It was in my bucket of I'm gonna 0:13:02.559 --> 0:13:04.320 let Matt talk to me, and to the extent I 0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:06.160 lean one way or the other, it was the Vikings 0:13:06.200 --> 0:13:07.840 and the spread's moving. It's four and a half right 0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:10.120 now in favor of the Vikings, and on our bed 0:13:10.120 --> 0:13:13.040 at analys are fifty eight percent like the Vikings even 0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:14.559 at that number. So I'm gonna put that in the 0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:16.400 Maybe I think I might like that one better than 0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:18.480 the Chargers one and a half to the writers, But 0:13:18.679 --> 0:13:20.680 I'm not opposed to it. I'm not opposed to especially 0:13:20.679 --> 0:13:22.440 if Stafford doesn't play. Now, do you are we gonna 0:13:22.520 --> 0:13:27.360 know I mean, obviously be test positive before Sunday morning. Well, no, 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:29.280 I wonder you know, Matt, I can wait to put 0:13:29.280 --> 0:13:32.640 these in until Sunday at ten so it can legitimately 0:13:32.679 --> 0:13:33.560 be one where. 0:13:33.480 --> 0:13:35.280 No, I mean, I mean they have to name a 0:13:35.320 --> 0:13:37.480 starting quarterback. He's gotta work out, he's gonna be with 0:13:37.520 --> 0:13:39.760 the ones. I mean, if he's not playing, they're gonna 0:13:39.800 --> 0:13:41.880 let everybody know by the time. I mean my Saturday 0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:43.040 will know staff is playing. 0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:45.679 Okay, all right, so let's put that one on the 0:13:45.840 --> 0:13:49.400 maybe list. Okay, my next best pick is a team 0:13:49.440 --> 0:13:51.760 that really let us down last week. But it's also 0:13:51.800 --> 0:13:53.960 a team that I wanted to pick last week that 0:13:54.120 --> 0:13:56.760 you were like, No, I hate this coaching staff. I 0:13:56.800 --> 0:13:58.600 don't like this team. So I'm wondering how you feel 0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:01.920 even though they're on the road Baltimore laying two and 0:14:01.960 --> 0:14:03.360 a half to the Colts. 0:14:03.559 --> 0:14:04.439 I'm on their side. 0:14:04.960 --> 0:14:06.440 You like the Colts in this game? 0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:09.040 Yeah? I thought you. I thought you'd picked the Colts. 0:14:09.400 --> 0:14:11.080 No, No, you were. 0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:13.520 So high on the Colts. That's my that's my third 0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:14.720 favorite play of the week. 0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:16.640 All right, Well let's talk it through then Todt tell 0:14:16.720 --> 0:14:18.000 why are you high in the Colts? And then I'll 0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:18.480 give my side. 0:14:18.480 --> 0:14:20.040 All right, So I'm highing the Colts because they're at 0:14:20.080 --> 0:14:23.360 home catching points. So they got two and a half 0:14:23.360 --> 0:14:26.000 points here, and I think there's something really wrong with 0:14:26.040 --> 0:14:28.200 Baltimore right now. I think there's something really wrong with 0:14:28.240 --> 0:14:30.920 the passing attack. I think teams have figured out Lamar Jackson. 0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:35.000 I think that they have the Ravens right now, they're 0:14:35.000 --> 0:14:37.560 not involving their wide receivers the same way that they 0:14:37.600 --> 0:14:40.960 have in the past, and I think you're relying. I 0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:43.400 think the team is looking at Lamar Jackson and asking 0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:47.040 him to be Superman, and if he's not Superman, they're losing. 0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:51.080 And I just fundamentally think there's something wrong here. And 0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:53.880 I know Philip Rivers is a real dangerous guy right 0:14:53.880 --> 0:14:57.000 now to pick. But their defense is playing well. Their 0:14:57.000 --> 0:14:58.920 offensive line played really well. I mean, look what they 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:01.000 did last week. I just think or a hot football team. 0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:03.480 I mean, Baltimore might win the game, but I'm getting 0:15:03.520 --> 0:15:04.640 two and a half points at home. 0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:08.800 So last week last week was the Lions, right, I'm 0:15:08.840 --> 0:15:12.280 not misremembering, Yes, right? Yeah? That I mean that was 0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:14.480 for me. This is what I said when we started 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:16.960 talking about it, Matt, I said, I feel like I'm 0:15:16.960 --> 0:15:19.800 in like a parallel universe because this is like the 0:15:19.840 --> 0:15:21.920 easiest pick in the world to me, and nobody else 0:15:21.960 --> 0:15:24.040 was on it. It wasn't just you. Everybody else was 0:15:24.040 --> 0:15:26.600 like no, no, no, I didn't understand. The Lions are 0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:30.040 just not capable of winning a game against the team 0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:33.160 like the Colts with that defense. Here's my big question, 0:15:33.240 --> 0:15:36.920 I think for the Colts, how are they going to 0:15:36.960 --> 0:15:39.600 move the ball. I mean, I know Marlon Humphrey. 0:15:39.360 --> 0:15:41.480 Is going to be got seven guys with COVID. 0:15:41.840 --> 0:15:44.520 Yeah, so are they all out, Yes, they're all out. 0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:46.320 They're all Humphreys is out. 0:15:46.360 --> 0:15:50.000 They're all out the Colts. One of the reasons why 0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:52.040 I didn't I didn't go crazy over it. What the 0:15:52.080 --> 0:15:55.080 Colts don't have receivers. I mean, even if you buy 0:15:55.120 --> 0:15:57.840 a t Y Hilton bounce back, t Y Hilton's probably 0:15:57.880 --> 0:16:00.760 not playing in this game. You know, what are you 0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:03.680 looking at? Zach Pascal. Maybe Michael Pittman Junior comes back, 0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:05.520 but it's not really scary. They've got eight tight ends. 0:16:05.640 --> 0:16:08.200 They're not going to go with johnthan Taylor, which maybe 0:16:08.200 --> 0:16:10.520 that's better for them with the way Taylor is running. 0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:12.600 But you know, Jordan Wilkins doesn't look. 0:16:13.280 --> 0:16:17.560 Just people know, Okay, L J Fort COVID, John Elliott COVID, 0:16:17.680 --> 0:16:21.960 Ron Stanley ankle injury, Patrick Queen COVID. Matthew Judon is back. 0:16:21.960 --> 0:16:24.720 Actually he came back today, so that he's back. Off 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:30.160 those Malie Harrison COVID, Tyas Bowser COVID, Marlon Humphrey's COVID. 0:16:30.200 --> 0:16:31.400 I mean, there are a lot of. 0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:34.560 The only guy who actually tested positive, Is that right? 0:16:34.600 --> 0:16:36.160 And the rest are close contacts? Or do you know 0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:38.400 of the rest of test positive? Because that was my understanding. 0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:41.160 They're on the COVID list, so we never when they 0:16:41.200 --> 0:16:43.560 get put on the COVID list, it's assumed that they 0:16:43.600 --> 0:16:45.960 cannot play, that they're going to have to have three 0:16:46.080 --> 0:16:46.880 negative tests. 0:16:46.960 --> 0:16:50.160 But Stafford's on the COVID list, right, Is he on 0:16:50.240 --> 0:16:52.360 the COVID list? I think what happens is if you're 0:16:52.400 --> 0:16:54.680 a high contact, you and I should know this at 0:16:54.680 --> 0:16:56.400 this point, but I'm very sorry. I've been up for 0:16:56.480 --> 0:16:56.960 like two. 0:16:57.760 --> 0:17:00.360 I'll look at right now, Matthew, look it up. I 0:17:00.440 --> 0:17:01.840 believe he is on the COVID list. 0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:04.280