WEBVTT - Ukrainians Return Home by the Millions 0:00:01.840 --> 0:00:04.480 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:04.519 --> 0:00:07.320 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.360 --> 0:00:09.840 you the latest news from the worlds of business and finance, 0:00:09.880 --> 0:00:13.680 plus technology, politics, economics, all purtnising the power of Business 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:17.160 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.200 --> 0:00:20.040 analyst in more than one twenty countries. You can download 0:00:20.040 --> 0:00:23.279 Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. 0:00:23.440 --> 0:00:25.239 You can also listen to our radio show at two 0:00:25.239 --> 0:00:27.920 pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on 0:00:27.960 --> 0:00:32.240 YouTube search Bloomberg glovel News. It is almost eight months 0:00:32.280 --> 0:00:34.960 since the Russian invasion and war in Ukraine. Just over 0:00:35.120 --> 0:00:37.879 six million people who fled their homes because of that 0:00:37.920 --> 0:00:41.839 invasion have since come back, and an online story at 0:00:41.840 --> 0:00:45.600 Bloomberg business Week dot Com takes us to the individuals 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:49.320 behind those numbers. Tim Mark Champion is the senior reporter 0:00:49.360 --> 0:00:53.000 for international affairs. He's behind this story. It's available online 0:00:53.080 --> 0:00:56.600 right now. Mark is joining us on the phone from London, 0:00:56.840 --> 0:01:00.000 and Mark spent a lot of time in Ukraine reporting 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:02.360 out this story. We got Joel Weber with us he's 0:01:02.400 --> 0:01:04.200 the editor of Bloomberg Business Week. He's with us right 0:01:04.240 --> 0:01:08.000 now in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Joel We spent 0:01:08.040 --> 0:01:09.600 a lot of time in the early part of the 0:01:09.640 --> 0:01:13.039 war hearing about many and many of them were women 0:01:13.040 --> 0:01:18.640 and children who left Ukraine when Russia started bombing it's cities, uh, 0:01:18.680 --> 0:01:22.560 and it's countryside as well. Why are so many people 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:25.600 returning even as the war continues to drag on. Well, 0:01:25.720 --> 0:01:28.080 I mean this is the home, their home, right and 0:01:28.160 --> 0:01:31.479 so at some level, um getting back there is is uh, 0:01:31.560 --> 0:01:33.360 you know, as long as you could take years in 0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:37.160 some instances, but you know, there has been um despite 0:01:37.200 --> 0:01:40.759 this kind of more recent um barrage, there had been 0:01:40.760 --> 0:01:44.160 a little moment where it felt like you could potentially return. 0:01:44.280 --> 0:01:46.840 And so what when Mark set out here, you know, 0:01:46.840 --> 0:01:48.600 he told us that he was interested in kind of 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:51.800 documenting this a while ago. And and really what what 0:01:51.920 --> 0:01:54.880 gets me is just this the humanity of this and 0:01:54.920 --> 0:01:59.040 what it's like to live through um, a total tragedy. 0:01:59.120 --> 0:02:03.240 And then also like there are things that feel really 0:02:03.280 --> 0:02:06.840 special there and you know, the dance studio is one 0:02:06.920 --> 0:02:08.560 market I wanted to ask you about what what what 0:02:08.639 --> 0:02:11.440 sticks out to you mark you you've you've been there 0:02:11.520 --> 0:02:14.760 multiple times now and I'm just curious, like bringing back 0:02:15.120 --> 0:02:17.000 for those of us who haven't been there, what's it like? 0:02:17.360 --> 0:02:21.600 And as these people return to their homes. Yes, I 0:02:21.639 --> 0:02:27.960 mean all zones are strange places because they often have 0:02:28.200 --> 0:02:31.240 a sort of huge variation in uh, you know, in 0:02:31.360 --> 0:02:33.840 how things are, not just in terms of place, you know, 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:35.839 for one area of a country to another, but also 0:02:35.880 --> 0:02:38.200 in terms of time. So when you're in a place 0:02:38.240 --> 0:02:43.079 like Butcher or ip In, Um, these were absolutely horrific 0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:47.880 places at a certain you know, just a few months ago. Um. 0:02:47.919 --> 0:02:50.240 And the stuff that was being done to people we 0:02:50.320 --> 0:02:52.720 discovered since of course people who lived there new at 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:58.680 the time was unspeakable. Um. And yet you go back 0:02:58.720 --> 0:03:02.040 now and people are rebuilding their lives. Um. You know, 0:03:02.080 --> 0:03:06.600 the restaurants are reopening, people are trying to make things work. 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:11.240 All those women and their children, it's on. They want 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:15.000 to come back. Almost everybody left Butcher for example, Um. 0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:17.520 But they want to come back because they left their 0:03:17.600 --> 0:03:22.240 husbands behind, they left you know, parents, grandparents behind who 0:03:22.240 --> 0:03:25.600 couldn't move. Uh. And so you see them come back, 0:03:25.760 --> 0:03:29.079 And what interested me was what happens to them when 0:03:29.080 --> 0:03:31.799 they come back. Um, you know, are they are they 0:03:32.320 --> 0:03:35.720 the lucky ones who escaped, or are they themselves um, 0:03:35.760 --> 0:03:39.680 you know, kind of traumatized by it or um and 0:03:40.320 --> 0:03:43.920 the experience. The result of you know, my reporting was 0:03:43.960 --> 0:03:47.920 simply that it's very difficult to escape the trauma because 0:03:48.080 --> 0:03:54.640 you know, for example, one lady was a uh a 0:03:54.640 --> 0:03:58.320 life coach, so she fled to Poland with their children, 0:03:58.440 --> 0:04:01.360 you know, right at the beginning before, which was occupied 0:04:01.520 --> 0:04:05.040 and was still fighting and uh. And she's in Poland. 0:04:05.040 --> 0:04:07.400 But what did she do. She carries on her work online. 0:04:07.440 --> 0:04:11.360 She's talking to people, her clients who are living through everything, 0:04:11.800 --> 0:04:15.600 and so she lives through the same experiences. Another woman, 0:04:16.440 --> 0:04:21.360 very very impressive woman, was running a business center and 0:04:21.480 --> 0:04:23.800 she decided, well, what can I do to help? As 0:04:23.920 --> 0:04:26.479 as she was leaving, and she decided to set up 0:04:26.480 --> 0:04:28.960 a call center so that they could you know, uh, 0:04:29.440 --> 0:04:31.920 find out which people were stuck in their homes, couldn't 0:04:31.920 --> 0:04:35.320 get medicine, couldn't get food, needed help, and they could 0:04:35.360 --> 0:04:38.240 send people into help. Um. In the end, because it 0:04:38.320 --> 0:04:40.960 was occupied and you couldn't move, they couldn't do a 0:04:40.960 --> 0:04:45.560 lot of that. But they got twenty calls from people saying, uh, 0:04:45.600 --> 0:04:49.240 you know, what's the news on the escape routes. You know, 0:04:49.360 --> 0:04:51.760 the green corridors are being made so they could help 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:54.920 organize people to get out. UM. They also people would 0:04:54.920 --> 0:04:57.039 just call in and say, I just saw two people, 0:04:57.200 --> 0:05:00.480 you know, children killed in a car happened at this place. UM. 0:05:00.480 --> 0:05:03.800 And they have this record of what happened throughout in 0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:07.080 Butcher where people were calling it in UM and that 0:05:07.279 --> 0:05:13.159 now record now remains that woman was really very sort 0:05:13.160 --> 0:05:16.480 of damaged by the whole experience because she was to 0:05:16.560 --> 0:05:18.599 live through it while it was happening and then again 0:05:18.640 --> 0:05:21.360 when it came over in the news and was made public. Mark, 0:05:21.520 --> 0:05:23.679 I mean you've been back and forth, like what strikes 0:05:23.720 --> 0:05:25.720 you the most as you talk to these individuals, because 0:05:25.720 --> 0:05:28.000 I do think there is this sense that often sometimes 0:05:28.440 --> 0:05:31.279 all of us who are far removed, it's just another headline. 0:05:31.360 --> 0:05:33.919 But as you really tell us, I mean, the faces, 0:05:34.000 --> 0:05:36.880 the people, the stories, these are real lives that we're 0:05:36.880 --> 0:05:42.320 talking about. Yes, very much so. And it's it's hard, Uh, 0:05:42.839 --> 0:05:47.240 you know, the jobs really aren't there. Butcher strangely is 0:05:48.080 --> 0:05:51.359 relatively lucky, which is a very strange thing to say, 0:05:51.400 --> 0:05:55.920 but uh, it is was always a clearly middle class 0:05:55.920 --> 0:06:00.680 suburb just outside of Kiev. Uh and because of its 0:06:01.440 --> 0:06:04.480 fame or or notoriety, whatever you wanted to call it, 0:06:04.720 --> 0:06:07.520 as a result of the massacres there where they found 0:06:07.680 --> 0:06:11.040 uh you know, mass grades and so on. Um, there 0:06:11.120 --> 0:06:13.160 is a lot of international attention. There are a lot 0:06:13.200 --> 0:06:16.920 of international donors. Um they you know, if they are 0:06:16.960 --> 0:06:19.120 able to open doors and to get help in a 0:06:19.160 --> 0:06:20.919 way that a lot of other places in Ukraine that 0:06:20.960 --> 0:06:23.640 nobody has ever heard of can't. So in one sense 0:06:23.680 --> 0:06:26.880 they're quite lucky. But even there, uh you know, they 0:06:26.960 --> 0:06:31.080 they fifty percent of businesses are still closed. People can't 0:06:31.120 --> 0:06:34.320 get jobs. The deputy mayor that I was talking to, 0:06:34.760 --> 0:06:39.919 not a great dynamic woman, was saying that, uh, she 0:06:40.120 --> 0:06:44.560 is hiring all kinds of hopeless the overqualified people to 0:06:44.720 --> 0:06:47.120 work in the you know, with her and the administration 0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:50.720 in the city hall, because they can't get any other work. 0:06:51.040 --> 0:06:53.640 And and samaries are lower than new work. Before the war, 0:06:53.880 --> 0:06:56.120 public fatories were never very high, and yet people are 0:06:56.160 --> 0:06:58.880 willing to come and work. Okay, Mark, can you take 0:06:58.960 --> 0:07:02.120 us back to the Ango studio because it still gives 0:07:02.120 --> 0:07:04.240 me chills a little bit, and I just want to 0:07:04.240 --> 0:07:08.119 hear about what why why tango and what it's done 0:07:08.120 --> 0:07:10.640 for those that you spoke with, Mark, Just so you know, 0:07:10.640 --> 0:07:14.560 we've got about in a a minute. Okay, So it's the 0:07:16.280 --> 0:07:19.240 really extraordinary thing about the tangle was that these are 0:07:19.280 --> 0:07:22.920 all beginners, and they are mostly women who came back 0:07:23.440 --> 0:07:27.160 and they are looking for ways of thinking about anything 0:07:27.160 --> 0:07:30.200 else other than you know, the grind of life and 0:07:30.200 --> 0:07:33.040 the trauma and everything else. And this is a way 0:07:33.040 --> 0:07:35.160 that they found to do it that if you if 0:07:35.160 --> 0:07:37.320 they have to just focus on their bodies and just 0:07:37.360 --> 0:07:40.480 focus on you know, moving your feet the right way. Um, 0:07:40.480 --> 0:07:42.800 that for a couple of outs at least, that's the 0:07:42.840 --> 0:07:46.720 only thing that they think about. Uh. And uh, it 0:07:46.840 --> 0:07:50.280 was really it was uh you know, it's it's not 0:07:50.480 --> 0:07:54.640 literally therapy, it's not clinical, but it is something that 0:07:54.680 --> 0:07:58.120 they found to kind of make life more livable. Well, 0:07:58.160 --> 0:07:59.720 as you say in your story about for two hours 0:07:59.720 --> 0:08:02.680 twice week, the dancers leave those horrors behind and we 0:08:02.720 --> 0:08:05.320 can only just imagine, uh, in that break that that 0:08:05.520 --> 0:08:08.480 gives them. Mark Champion, thank you so much. We've really 0:08:08.520 --> 0:08:11.160 been appreciate you reporting on all of this. Senior reporter 0:08:11.200 --> 0:08:14.320 for International Affairs at Bloomberg News, joining us on the 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:17.640 phone from London. This story you can find at Bloomberg 0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:20.160 dot com, Slash business Week, and of course our thanks 0:08:20.160 --> 0:08:22.880 to Joel Webber, editor of Bloomberg Business Week, joining us 0:08:22.880 --> 0:08:26.920 here in our Interactive Brokers studio. You're listening to Bloomberg 0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:30.640 Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim 0:08:30.680 --> 0:08:34.439 Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. I gotta say, how did you 0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:37.240 do a presentation for someone? And we're talking about Bloomberg, 0:08:37.280 --> 0:08:38.320 And I said, one of the things I really do 0:08:38.360 --> 0:08:41.839 love about Bloomberg is how wide and deep we are 0:08:41.920 --> 0:08:44.199 in terms of scope, in terms of news coverage. You 0:08:44.240 --> 0:08:46.200 can go anywhere in the globe and find a reporter 0:08:46.240 --> 0:08:48.360 to talk about who have boots on the ground and 0:08:48.400 --> 0:08:50.920 really under a understanding story. And lucky for us, we 0:08:50.960 --> 0:08:53.120 have a colleague who's normally in Hong Kong, but she's 0:08:53.120 --> 0:08:54.840 in New York this week. We're very pleased to have 0:08:54.960 --> 0:08:58.320 with a Sophia Horte Coast. She's chief China Markets correspondent 0:08:58.360 --> 0:09:01.120 for Bloomberg near She's based on Hong Kong Bureau. Yeah, 0:09:01.160 --> 0:09:02.840 but she's with us right now in the Bloomberg Interactive 0:09:02.840 --> 0:09:05.240 Broker's Studio. She's been here in New York for a 0:09:05.240 --> 0:09:06.800 little over a week. So if you're good to have 0:09:06.880 --> 0:09:10.000 you with us this afternoon. We want to talk China markets. 0:09:10.040 --> 0:09:12.240 We want to talk about what happened over the weekend 0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:14.800 in China. But first I want an update from you 0:09:14.880 --> 0:09:17.160 about what things are like in Hong Kong right now, 0:09:17.559 --> 0:09:20.000 because there's been some big changes over the last couple 0:09:20.000 --> 0:09:23.440 of years. Sure, I actually moved there m almost five 0:09:23.520 --> 0:09:26.199 years ago. Now it's coming up to five years in January, 0:09:26.320 --> 0:09:29.320 and what what period it's been. I mean, when I 0:09:29.360 --> 0:09:32.160 moved there in thousand eighteen, Hong Kong was kind of 0:09:32.160 --> 0:09:35.360 the the Wild East, as it were, and it was 0:09:35.440 --> 0:09:39.000 it was the freest city in China. It is at 0:09:39.040 --> 0:09:41.360 the end of the day, still a Chinese city, even 0:09:41.400 --> 0:09:45.360 though it has its own independent structures, independent systems. UM 0:09:45.520 --> 0:09:48.360 and the erosion of those independent systems is really really 0:09:48.360 --> 0:09:50.520 common to play in the five years that I've been there. 0:09:51.120 --> 0:09:54.120 But also UM and we were talking about this during 0:09:54.120 --> 0:09:57.160 the break. I mean, COVID zero was such a huge 0:09:57.320 --> 0:10:00.400 thing in Hong Kong. And when I say was should say, 0:10:00.480 --> 0:10:02.400 I should really say it is? I mean, you still 0:10:02.440 --> 0:10:05.920 have to wear a mask every every single day or 0:10:05.960 --> 0:10:09.400 wherever you are even outside in Hong Kong. So I 0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:11.480 mean for me here, it's it's wild that you can 0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:13.520 just walk around the street and show your face and 0:10:13.679 --> 0:10:18.120 can see people smiling. Um. But really, I mean that 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:22.000 was smiling in New York. I saw people smile. Maybe 0:10:22.000 --> 0:10:24.920 I just smile everyone. People smile back. Maybe they think 0:10:24.920 --> 0:10:31.360 I'm weird, Yeah exactly, No, but but really smile. Okay yeah, 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:35.720 Carol's um, but no, but but really, I mean my 0:10:35.800 --> 0:10:39.320 point is that, yes, the protests were hard on the city, 0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:43.880 the aftermath of that national security law that came into play, 0:10:43.960 --> 0:10:48.720 that was obviously very very controversial, But it was really 0:10:48.760 --> 0:10:51.240 this year that you saw people just throwing in the 0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:54.319 talent saying I want to leave. Um. I mean February 0:10:54.480 --> 0:10:57.319 you had the stories that you heard here of parents 0:10:57.320 --> 0:11:00.760 being separated from the children. That's all true, that happened. Um. 0:11:00.800 --> 0:11:04.520 I mean, you would go into the hospital system if 0:11:04.520 --> 0:11:07.640 you tested positive for COVID, and you really had to 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:10.240 think about maybe not leaving for at least fifty days 0:11:10.280 --> 0:11:12.280 because you have to test negative so many times. So 0:11:13.080 --> 0:11:15.319 people did leave and and a lot of them didn't 0:11:15.360 --> 0:11:18.240 come back. The brain drain was extremely severe, so Sofia 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:22.320 like when we think about um the next tenure of 0:11:22.640 --> 0:11:24.400 President g and there's a lot of news that came 0:11:24.440 --> 0:11:26.400 out over the weekend. We've been talking about it all week. 0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:28.800 So this will be his third term. You know, what 0:11:28.960 --> 0:11:31.520 kind of China is it going forward? You know, coming 0:11:31.559 --> 0:11:34.760 after decades of being a market that everybody wanted to 0:11:34.760 --> 0:11:36.280 be a part of and to be able to tap 0:11:36.320 --> 0:11:39.560 into that, you know, growing domestic home base, the one 0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:44.360 billion plus population. So how should global investors think of 0:11:44.440 --> 0:11:47.360 China going forward? I think there was a lot of 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:51.040 expectation and hope that during the Party Congress there would 0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:54.040 be any any kind of signal, any kind of signal 0:11:54.200 --> 0:11:56.839 or or because you know, when it comes to China, 0:11:56.920 --> 0:12:00.000 it's all about signals. It's never straightforward reading what's happen 0:12:00.000 --> 0:12:02.560 penning in China, that there would be some kind of 0:12:02.600 --> 0:12:05.520 pivot from Shi jumping, or at least a government that 0:12:05.559 --> 0:12:08.040 was more pragmatic and more focused on growth and again 0:12:08.120 --> 0:12:11.360 looking at the economy. Uh instead of um, you know, 0:12:11.400 --> 0:12:15.360 prioritizing Si jimping thought um but stead they delayed right GDP, 0:12:15.480 --> 0:12:17.400 which was kind of like blew your mind. Yeah, So 0:12:17.480 --> 0:12:19.200 though there is kind of a there might be a 0:12:19.240 --> 0:12:22.960 boring explanation to that that people actually need to physically 0:12:23.040 --> 0:12:25.640 sign off on those reports, and there might be a 0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:29.200 COVID zero element there that the people who needed to 0:12:29.200 --> 0:12:32.960 to stamp them couldn't couldn't physically do that. UM. But 0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:35.120 obviously it adds to the whole noise, in the whole 0:12:35.200 --> 0:12:39.040 uncertainty around where China's priorities are in terms of growth. 0:12:39.280 --> 0:12:41.480 And what She Jumping really made clear in the past 0:12:41.520 --> 0:12:46.480 two years is that UM communists the Communist Party's policies. 0:12:46.760 --> 0:12:49.320 And when when we say the Communist Party nowadays, it 0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:52.200 really does mean Si Jimping. I mean, he's not called 0:12:52.240 --> 0:12:55.720 the Chairman of Everything for no reason. UM. And that 0:12:56.200 --> 0:13:01.559 trumps everything. It trumps economic growth, it trumps pragmatism, it 0:13:01.760 --> 0:13:05.959 trumps UM you know, profits by by corporates and by 0:13:05.960 --> 0:13:08.719 the China's biggest companies, and it trumps the markets. I 0:13:08.760 --> 0:13:12.520 mean the sell off that we saw in in Chinese 0:13:12.520 --> 0:13:15.520 financial markets, not just this year but last year. Importantly, 0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:19.720 that was all down to policy. And that's something that 0:13:19.760 --> 0:13:21.839 I think would never happen in a place like the US. 0:13:21.960 --> 0:13:27.000 You know, if if Biden saw financial markets tanking because 0:13:27.040 --> 0:13:30.280 of policies, UM, you know that his government brought out 0:13:30.320 --> 0:13:32.000 there would be a kind of rollback, and we're seeing 0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:34.160 that in the UK now, I mean less trust is 0:13:34.240 --> 0:13:38.000 rolling back policies because of the market reaction. Shijiping didn't 0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:40.520 do that and didn't do that, really stuck to those 0:13:40.640 --> 0:13:43.680 damaging policies for for for two years. But at the 0:13:43.720 --> 0:13:46.520 same time and really unfortunately about a minute left, but 0:13:47.040 --> 0:13:49.160 there are there was also at the same time policies 0:13:49.200 --> 0:13:51.640 that they said certain I guess Chinese regulators were talking 0:13:51.679 --> 0:13:54.880 about ways to prop up the Chinese equity markets. So 0:13:54.920 --> 0:13:57.880 sometimes it feels like mixed signals. It's mixed sALS. I 0:13:57.880 --> 0:14:00.840 mean it is. It is kind of invest as much 0:14:00.880 --> 0:14:04.200 as you like from you know, China is still does 0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:07.400 still want foreign capital inside its markets. It's still wants 0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:11.240 to roll out the red carpet for um capital to 0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:14.160 come into China. It needs that capital, but it's very 0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:17.120 much on China's terms. That capital can't go everywhere. It 0:14:17.160 --> 0:14:19.800 can't go um you know, to kind of big tech 0:14:19.920 --> 0:14:22.280 or two streaming companies for example. He needs to go 0:14:22.760 --> 0:14:26.680 where she jumpin. C's are the biggest policy priorities for 0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:30.360 the future, and that's green, that's high tech, that's AI 0:14:30.480 --> 0:14:33.640 that's chip making. China wants that kind of growth and 0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:36.640 not the you know, the kind of big tech or 0:14:36.720 --> 0:14:41.520 property market growth of the past decade. It's really fascinating. Hey, 0:14:41.640 --> 0:14:43.520 just have like fifteen seconds left. Sofia, do you ever 0:14:43.600 --> 0:14:47.960 envision at COVID zero policy going away or easing at all? Uh? Well, 0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:51.560 it can't last forever, is my conclusion, but it can 0:14:51.640 --> 0:14:54.120 last for a very long time. All right, there, it 0:14:54.240 --> 0:14:57.440 is big thank you to Sofia Rtea E. Coasta. She's 0:14:57.480 --> 0:15:00.880 chief China Markets correspondent for Bloomberg New is usually based 0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:02.920 in our Hong Kong bureau, but with us in the 0:15:03.000 --> 0:15:05.800 Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio from Hong Kong. It's not like 0:15:05.800 --> 0:15:07.920 there's a time difference or anything. It's bedtime. It's like 0:15:07.920 --> 0:15:10.040 the middle of the night. There, come back, come back, 0:15:10.080 --> 0:15:12.120 come back to New York and I love to continue 0:15:12.160 --> 0:15:14.720 and talk more with you. Our thanks to Sophia. All right, 0:15:14.720 --> 0:15:17.680 you're listening in watching Bloomberg Business Week. This is Bloomberg Radio. 0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:23.480 This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg 0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:27.480 Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. We gotta read 0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:29.400 on the economy thanks to the FED Beige Book. We 0:15:29.400 --> 0:15:32.080 did that at the top of our broadcast and keep 0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:34.760 it only. There are two FED meetings left in two 0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:37.880 we're talking about in November and December. We're very pleased 0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:39.720 with us. A tap with us this afternoon, Chris Ansy, 0:15:39.760 --> 0:15:41.760 senior editor for Bloomberg News, who joins us on the 0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:44.920 phone from Boston. Chris, it's interesting because we got some 0:15:45.200 --> 0:15:48.000 data from the Federal Reserve earlier today in the Beige Book. 0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:49.200 I don't want to call it data, but it was 0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:52.560 anecdotes about what you know, the country is seeing in 0:15:52.560 --> 0:15:55.280 different or with the Federal Reserve is seeing in different districts, 0:15:55.320 --> 0:15:57.680 and we saw a little bit of a cooling. Sort 0:15:57.720 --> 0:16:01.600 of difficult to kind square that with the CPI data 0:16:01.640 --> 0:16:04.080 that we got last week, but it always all raises 0:16:04.080 --> 0:16:06.280 a big question about, you know what, the Fed hiking 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:10.120 rates so aggressively right now, why aren't we seeing it 0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:13.040 really play out when it comes to tightening financial conditions 0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:17.280 at least bringing down inflation. Yeah, that's uh, that's a 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:20.520 good question. Uh. And uh, you know, we look at 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:24.480 financial markets. Uh, we've got a beer market in stocks, 0:16:24.600 --> 0:16:28.720 We've got an historic beer market in bonds. We've got 0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:32.479 a super strong dollar. All of these kinds of signs 0:16:33.080 --> 0:16:39.080 are screaming, uh, major reaction to the federal reserves, aggressive tightening. 0:16:39.320 --> 0:16:42.120 But when we look at the actual uh you know, 0:16:42.200 --> 0:16:47.720 economic data, we don't see any major problems here. Even 0:16:48.200 --> 0:16:51.200 you know, this morning's housing starts. Uh, they came off 0:16:51.240 --> 0:16:54.360 a bit in September, but the level of housing starts 0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:58.520 is still above where it was before COVID. Uh. We 0:16:58.560 --> 0:17:03.960 look at yesterday's industrial production figure, Uh, it handily beat forecasts. Uh. 0:17:04.000 --> 0:17:09.160 And uh, the percentage of factory capacity that's in use 0:17:09.320 --> 0:17:13.080 is at a multi decade high. Um. Job games are 0:17:13.119 --> 0:17:16.239 still going pretty well. So uh. You know you were 0:17:16.280 --> 0:17:21.520 referring before to the jargon that economists use these long lags. Uh, 0:17:21.720 --> 0:17:23.919 they aren't that variable right now, I got to say, 0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:27.600 but there are these long lags between Fed policy action 0:17:27.800 --> 0:17:31.080 and fundamental turns in the economy. Chris, I was trying 0:17:31.080 --> 0:17:34.240 to get uh tim to sing Long and Winding Road 0:17:34.600 --> 0:17:36.280 by the Beatles came into my head when I was 0:17:36.280 --> 0:17:39.000 reading long invariable Lags. I don't know why, Yeah, like 0:17:39.040 --> 0:17:40.879 it just as kind of a one of my least 0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:43.160 favorite Beatles songs. I haven't say, that's why I don't 0:17:43.160 --> 0:17:44.400 want to sing a carol. I don't want to send 0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:49.119 a favorite one. Okay, UM, so soon we're going to 0:17:49.160 --> 0:17:54.119 be singing help nicely done, nicely done? Well you know 0:17:54.160 --> 0:17:58.600 in your writing today, um, in the Bloomberg New Economy Daily, 0:17:58.680 --> 0:18:01.680 because you you mentioned tourists who's got a story out 0:18:01.720 --> 0:18:07.200 about the report last week regarding central banks and how 0:18:07.240 --> 0:18:12.040 they have now quote revised down significantly end quote their 0:18:12.160 --> 0:18:14.479 estimate of where the U S economy speed limit is. 0:18:14.800 --> 0:18:21.240 The significance of that, So that is significant because it 0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:24.920 means if the economy is kind of trend growth rate 0:18:25.800 --> 0:18:29.320 is lower than it was, it means that all of 0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:33.240 these indicators that we get uh don't need to be 0:18:33.480 --> 0:18:38.960 too hot to trigger inflation. That means that the economy 0:18:39.200 --> 0:18:42.879 is going to react in a more inflationary way uh 0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:47.720 to just small opticks in economic activity. Uh. And so 0:18:47.760 --> 0:18:51.240 it makes it all the harder to ring inflation out 0:18:51.240 --> 0:18:54.359 of the system. Uh. And you know we meant just 0:18:54.480 --> 0:19:00.760 mentioned industrial output. Yesterday after that report, Goldman sacked economists 0:19:00.800 --> 0:19:05.880 came out and up to their running calculation for third 0:19:05.960 --> 0:19:09.240 quarter g d P to two point four percent, now 0:19:09.280 --> 0:19:12.600 two point four percent is above everybody's estimate of the 0:19:12.720 --> 0:19:16.040 U S trend. So if the US is clocking that 0:19:16.160 --> 0:19:20.640 kind of growth pacee, it just means more inflationary pressure 0:19:20.960 --> 0:19:23.919 and more work for the Federal Reserve to do to 0:19:23.960 --> 0:19:26.000 bring it down. So what does this all mean in 0:19:26.000 --> 0:19:27.720 the last minute that we have with you, Chris, for 0:19:27.960 --> 0:19:29.960 the path of rate hikes going forward? I mean we're 0:19:29.960 --> 0:19:34.920 thinking for November obviously, what about December? What about what 0:19:35.000 --> 0:19:39.840 cash car? He said yesterday? Uh? How are you reading 0:19:39.840 --> 0:19:44.399 into it more and more and more looking at this 0:19:44.480 --> 0:19:48.840 whole time? Well, it means a hard day's night for 0:19:49.080 --> 0:19:53.480 Mr Powell and his colleague, that's for sure. But you 0:19:53.680 --> 0:19:55.960 know what I think is that, you know, uh Anna 0:19:56.040 --> 0:20:00.959 Wong and Bluebrig Economics was pretty prescient predicting, you know, 0:20:01.000 --> 0:20:04.880 a five percent policy rate next year. Uh. And it's 0:20:04.920 --> 0:20:10.440 a call that she's increasingly uh that is increasingly shared 0:20:10.440 --> 0:20:13.200 by others. All right, well you work in yellow submarine 0:20:13.240 --> 0:20:15.919 next time, and uh, you are then going to be 0:20:16.040 --> 0:20:19.440 my favorite person. I'm gonna be totally in awe of you, Chris, 0:20:19.480 --> 0:20:22.160 more than I am already. Um, Chris, thank you so much, 0:20:22.200 --> 0:20:24.840 really appreciate it really fits into our coverage here of 0:20:24.880 --> 0:20:27.159 Beige Book and just all things fed and especially as 0:20:27.200 --> 0:20:29.840 we get ready for that Bloomberg exclusive with Jim Buller, 0:20:29.920 --> 0:20:31.879 the president of the St. Louis Fed Our Thanks to 0:20:31.920 --> 0:20:34.800 Bloomberg New Senior Editor Chris Anty and who also knows 0:20:34.880 --> 0:20:38.400 his Bloomberg Bloomberg songs, I should say Beatles songs really well. 0:20:38.640 --> 0:20:41.760 Writing in the Bloomberg New Economy Daily. You're listening to 0:20:41.880 --> 0:20:45.840 Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. 0:20:45.920 --> 0:20:50.920 Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio talking about Netflix throughout the day, 0:20:50.960 --> 0:20:55.320 Shares just off their high, still up about surging as 0:20:55.320 --> 0:20:58.800 a subscriber growth signaling the worst is over. It added 0:20:59.000 --> 0:21:01.520 two point forty one allion customers in the third quarter, 0:21:01.600 --> 0:21:05.600 exceeding internal forecast as well as expectations on Wall Street. 0:21:06.000 --> 0:21:08.080 Well chairman, president, co CEO, and of course the co 0:21:08.119 --> 0:21:10.679 founder of Netflix. We're talking about read Hastings Winging on 0:21:10.720 --> 0:21:13.720 the conference call last night. He too, issuing a bit 0:21:13.720 --> 0:21:16.840 of a sigh of relief. Check it out. Well, thank god, 0:21:16.920 --> 0:21:20.600 we're done with shrinking quarters. So it's a big feeling 0:21:20.680 --> 0:21:23.920 of we're back to the positivity. We still got f X, 0:21:24.119 --> 0:21:27.040 so that's a huge hit, you know, as we've explained, 0:21:27.119 --> 0:21:30.400 So that's not going to go away. Um, but other 0:21:30.480 --> 0:21:33.720 than that, all the stars are lining up very well 0:21:33.800 --> 0:21:38.440 for us. That was Netflix co founder co CEO, Read 0:21:38.480 --> 0:21:41.520 Hastings and chairman as well, from the company's conference call 0:21:41.600 --> 0:21:45.040 following Tuesday's earnings results. We've got a great voice with us. 0:21:45.200 --> 0:21:48.680 Geta Rananathan is technology and media analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:21:48.720 --> 0:21:52.280 She joins us on Zoom from our Princeton, New Jersey bureau. GA. 0:21:52.320 --> 0:21:55.200 Great to have you with us. So is it true? 0:21:55.320 --> 0:21:58.480 I mean, are we should Read Hastings actually be breathing 0:21:58.480 --> 0:22:00.840 a sigh of relief here? Is you know, one quarter 0:22:00.920 --> 0:22:04.840 does not change everything, does it. Yeah, that's a great question. 0:22:04.880 --> 0:22:08.200 But I think we're back on track here finally. Um. 0:22:08.240 --> 0:22:10.960