1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,360 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm Pim 2 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: Fox along with my co host Lisa A. Bramowitz. Each 3 00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: day we bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful 4 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:17,079 Speaker 1: interviews for you and your money, whether you're at the 5 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,360 Speaker 1: grocery store or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p 6 00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 1: m L Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. 7 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 1: And for details. Now and more details about what's going 8 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 1: on in Iraq, we want to bring in Julian Lee, 9 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 1: oil strategist for a Bloomberg first Word, and I encourage 10 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:44,599 Speaker 1: everyone to read his latest column having to do with 11 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:48,839 Speaker 1: the tensions with the Kurdish separatists. And I'm just wondering, 12 00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:51,840 Speaker 1: you know, Julian, great to have you with us. It's 13 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 1: kind of difficult to even put the nomenclature this correctly 14 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 1: because Curtis Stan has a regional government and it just 15 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:04,560 Speaker 1: voted for full independence, and yet Iraq's government doesn't want 16 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:06,840 Speaker 1: to have anything to do with this and now has 17 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:10,200 Speaker 1: launched an assault on the city of kirk Kut. I 18 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:12,760 Speaker 1: wonder if you could explain why this is relevant and 19 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:16,880 Speaker 1: what do you believe is going on behind the scenes. Okay, well, 20 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 1: thank you for for having me. I mean, it's it's 21 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 1: great to be on the show. Um, I think we 22 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:23,040 Speaker 1: have to to sort of look at a little bit 23 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 1: of history here. The city of Kirkuk has been disputed 24 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:31,959 Speaker 1: between the Kurdish government and the government in Baghdad really 25 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 1: since the fall of Saddam Hussein, and has been a 26 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 1: disputed city long before that. Um. It's not in the 27 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 1: Kurdish region of Iraq, it's just outside it, so it 28 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 1: wasn't under control of the Kurdish regional government. When Iraqi 29 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 1: forces fled northern Iraq in fourteen in the face of 30 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 1: the insurgency from the so called Islamic State, the Kurds 31 00:01:57,160 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 1: moved in. Kurdish forces moved into protect Ka Cook, protects 32 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 1: surrounding oil fields, and effectively established de facto control over 33 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 1: the city of Kurdistan and over neighboring oil fields, a 34 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 1: couple of which subsequently were taken over and managed by 35 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:21,959 Speaker 1: a Kurdish company. Now that Islamic State has been kicked 36 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 1: out of northern Iraq, the federal government wants the city 37 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:32,399 Speaker 1: of Kerkook and wants those oil fields back. Um. The 38 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:36,120 Speaker 1: the Kurdish referendum really has has thrown fuel on the 39 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:41,520 Speaker 1: fire because the Baghdad government doesn't want to see Iraq 40 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 1: split up, and indeed nor do international governments, particularly those 41 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 1: of Iraq's neighbors. So how much of this Julian is 42 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:56,919 Speaker 1: a purely economic issue? Who gets control over these oil fields? 43 00:02:56,960 --> 00:03:01,799 Speaker 1: And how important are these oil fields strategically? I think 44 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 1: the issue is is it's certainly for for Iraqis and 45 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 1: for Kords, is much bigger than just control of oil. 46 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:11,960 Speaker 1: It is about national destiny and the shape of Iraq 47 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:16,640 Speaker 1: going forwards. The oil is undoubtedly important, it's we're not 48 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 1: talking huge volumes in terms of the total production of 49 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:26,160 Speaker 1: Iraq itself. Most of Iraq's oil production comes from the south, 50 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: near the Persian Gulf. They're exporting something over three million 51 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:34,240 Speaker 1: barrels a day from the Persian Gulf. From northern Iraq, 52 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 1: they're exporting about six hundred thousand barrels today, so you know, 53 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 1: roughly a fifth of what they're exporting from the south. 54 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 1: But the reason that it's important is that it's delivered 55 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 1: by pipeline directly to an export terminal on Turkey's Mediterranean coast. 56 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 1: That makes it a very close source of supply for 57 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:59,680 Speaker 1: Mediterranean refiners. And that is very attractive to them. So 58 00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 1: the loss of this oil, or even a part of it, 59 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 1: would I think cause a dislocation for Mediterranean refiners as 60 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 1: they look to replace this Kurdish and Northern Iraqi oil 61 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 1: with supplies from elsewhere. And that's where I think the 62 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:18,800 Speaker 1: real importance lies. Add to that the fact that we 63 00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:22,279 Speaker 1: seem to be in a situation again where Middle Eastern 64 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:26,440 Speaker 1: geopolitics and the threat of conflict or indeed the actuality 65 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 1: of conflict in oil producing countries in the Middle East 66 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 1: is starting to have an impact on prices. And what 67 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 1: about the ability of Iraqi oil producers to get the 68 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:40,920 Speaker 1: product to market. Producers in the south of the country 69 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 1: in the who, well, yeah, I know that the south 70 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:45,440 Speaker 1: is find producers in the north have a big problem. 71 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 1: The only way at the moment to get oil out 72 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:53,360 Speaker 1: of northern Iraqi is through a Kurdish pipeline which runs 73 00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:55,719 Speaker 1: from the northern end of the kirk cook Field, which 74 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 1: Kurdistan has operated for a decade and a half U 75 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 1: and that runs up to the Turkish border and then 76 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 1: across Turkey to a terminal on on Turkey's Mediterranean coast. 77 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:09,479 Speaker 1: That is the only way of getting oil out of 78 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:14,359 Speaker 1: northern Iraq in any significant quantity, whether that's Kurdish produced 79 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 1: and controlled oil or oil that is produced and controlled 80 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 1: by the national government. So everybody needs the pipeline to 81 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:24,560 Speaker 1: keep running. Julian real quick, I'm trying to get an 82 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:29,159 Speaker 1: understanding of why we're seeing oil prices rise on this news. 83 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 1: Is it because of the threat of a wider conflict 84 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:35,800 Speaker 1: or is it because this could potentially take oil offline. 85 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:39,719 Speaker 1: I think it's it's that it could potentially take oil offline. 86 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:42,359 Speaker 1: It could take as much as six hundred thousand barrels 87 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:46,039 Speaker 1: a day. There doesn't seem to be risk of the 88 00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 1: conflict spreading, although Turkey did threaten at the time of 89 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:53,479 Speaker 1: the referendum that if if Kurdistan went ahead with independence, 90 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 1: it could and would close the pipeline. Julian Lee, thank 91 00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:58,280 Speaker 1: you so much for joining us, and your story was 92 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:01,839 Speaker 1: really terrific. I recommend everyone read it. Bloomberg dot Com, 93 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:05,720 Speaker 1: slash goad Fly Julian Lee, oil strategist for Bloomberg, First 94 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 1: Word and a Gadfly columnists. President Trump last week asked 95 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 1: the US Congress to toughen the terms of a fifteen 96 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:29,679 Speaker 1: Iranian nuclear agreement saying it doesn't do enough to contain 97 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:34,360 Speaker 1: Iranian ambitions. Here to discuss this Ariel Cohen, Senior Fellow 98 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:37,800 Speaker 1: at the Atlantic Council, also Director of the Center for Energy, 99 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:42,920 Speaker 1: Natural Resources and Geopolitics at the Institute for Analysis of 100 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:45,800 Speaker 1: Global Security. Ariel, thank you so much for joining us. 101 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 1: Can we just go over what the main issues are 102 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:53,919 Speaker 1: that President Trump is responding to and how widely his 103 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:58,640 Speaker 1: UH skepticism about this deal really is. It is shared, 104 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 1: fest of all. Thank you for having me, fest of all. 105 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:09,239 Speaker 1: Because Trump is consistent. He criticized the deal with Iron 106 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 1: called j C p o A the Obama era deal, 107 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:19,120 Speaker 1: because it is not a good deal for the United States. UH. 108 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:25,239 Speaker 1: The deal allows Iran to continue uranium enrichment, although this 109 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 1: is low enriched uranium that is used in medical research 110 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:36,240 Speaker 1: and in civilian UM power stations, but the capacity can 111 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 1: be easily upgraded UH to UM create the uranium for 112 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:46,560 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons. Secondly, the deal does not stop Iranian development 113 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:52,240 Speaker 1: of ballistic missiles, including we get indications the development of 114 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 1: I C B M intercontinental ballistic myself in the longer term. UH. Thirdly, 115 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:03,480 Speaker 1: the deal does not fate to stop Iran from interfering 116 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 1: throughout the Middle East. Iran is a major supporter of 117 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:13,040 Speaker 1: the brutal regime of Vashar Alasta in Syria. It interferes 118 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:18,480 Speaker 1: in Yemen. It effectively pursues policy of surrounding our allied 119 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia both from the north. It supports Katar UH. 120 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 1: It supports Shia minority inside Saudi, it supports Shia majority 121 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 1: in Bahrain and the Ushia rebels and Yemen. So both 122 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:38,440 Speaker 1: in terms of geopolitics, in terms of facts on the 123 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 1: ground in the Middle East, and in terms of nuclear capability, 124 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:45,480 Speaker 1: the deal did not achieve u S strategic goals, and 125 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:49,240 Speaker 1: this is why Trump is not UH scuttling it. But 126 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:52,680 Speaker 1: it is the company of Ministrusion is trying to push 127 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 1: Iran to get to the negotiating table and to renegotiate 128 00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:01,959 Speaker 1: the deal. Is there any evidence, Ariel, that the strategy 129 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 1: that the Trump administration is employing has ever worked. UH. 130 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 1: The strategy has not been fully announced. I believe that 131 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:17,560 Speaker 1: des certifying Iran is the first step, but the strategy 132 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:22,199 Speaker 1: has not been articulated, and if there is one, UH, 133 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 1: they probably are not going to fully expose it for 134 00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 1: public consumption. UH. In a game with the Iranians that 135 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 1: I cracked around for decades. In the game of the Iranians, 136 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 1: you don't show your cards. You keep your cards closed 137 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:37,960 Speaker 1: to your chest. Iran is a place where the chess 138 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 1: they was invented. Granted, the Russians played the chest well, 139 00:09:43,040 --> 00:09:47,559 Speaker 1: but the Iranians other original auctors their tough nego shares. 140 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 1: They've been in the area for over three thousand years, 141 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:57,240 Speaker 1: even before UH the introduction of Islam occupation by the 142 00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:01,600 Speaker 1: Arabs in the seventh century a d uh. So these 143 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 1: guys built a huge empire that you remember from history, 144 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 1: clashed with ancient Greece and Rome, and fought with Greece 145 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:13,720 Speaker 1: and Rome for over a thousand years. So these are 146 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:17,680 Speaker 1: masters of political games. We should not tell them what 147 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:19,960 Speaker 1: we're planning to do. Well, Ariel, I want to talk 148 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 1: a little bit about the broader reaction to President Trump's moves. 149 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 1: The European Union is opposed to bringing Iran back to 150 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:30,680 Speaker 1: the table and trying to renegotiate this. They're hoping that 151 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:36,199 Speaker 1: US Congress keeps this nuclear agreement intact. I'm just wondering, 152 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:39,760 Speaker 1: you know, there has been talk that perhaps UH taking 153 00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 1: a hard line could actually be advantageous for Russia, what's 154 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:46,680 Speaker 1: your take on how much political will there is to 155 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:54,680 Speaker 1: really renegotiate this. Uh. The European position, the Russian position, 156 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:58,319 Speaker 1: and the Chinese position are all going to be crucial 157 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:01,400 Speaker 1: UH in the strategy of the U S is pursuing. 158 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 1: And of course, UH, just as in case of North Korea, 159 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 1: we would much rather achieve our strateistic goals through negotiations 160 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 1: and not for war. UH, not through the use of force. 161 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:18,320 Speaker 1: Having said that, we still have a lot of means 162 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:21,959 Speaker 1: short of the use of force, short of war, including 163 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:27,920 Speaker 1: banking and economic sections against terrorist organization UH and the 164 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 1: Iranian Revolutionary Guard core mega terrorist organization that has an 165 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:38,319 Speaker 1: air force UH, controls ballistic missiles that we were on, 166 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 1: is developing the nuclear program and has presence all over 167 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 1: the world. So it's much bigger than Al Qaina ever was. 168 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 1: The IRG SEE finally finally was declared a terrorist organization, 169 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:55,440 Speaker 1: which it is UH, and now the consequences to their 170 00:11:55,520 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 1: businesses are coming. The chickens are coming home to roost. Aria. 171 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:02,559 Speaker 1: Let me let Aria, let me just break in here, 172 00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:05,080 Speaker 1: because all of what let's let's just put all of 173 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:07,319 Speaker 1: what you said just aside for just just a second. 174 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 1: And if you can just focus on the idea that 175 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 1: Iran is the second largest exporter of oil from OPEC, 176 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:21,280 Speaker 1: it's the world's fourth largest oil producer. What are the 177 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 1: goals that you believe can be exchanged. I don't mean 178 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 1: in terms of passing legislation in the United States or 179 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:33,480 Speaker 1: getting European allies to agree with the Trump administration's uh 180 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 1: yet to be revealed strategy, but what goals can be 181 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 1: achieved in dealing with what you describe as a hostile 182 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:48,000 Speaker 1: or confrontational force that just happens to have ten percent 183 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:51,520 Speaker 1: of the world's proven oil reserves and of its gas. 184 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:59,320 Speaker 1: Uh you're putting your finger on a very important uh 185 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 1: here economic if you want issue, and that is a 186 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:08,200 Speaker 1: competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran for the regional dominance 187 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 1: of the Middle East. The Saudis as soon as Irainians 188 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:14,960 Speaker 1: a Shia, we can and we should work with the 189 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:18,440 Speaker 1: Saudias um to keep the oil pricess down. But the 190 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 1: Saudis the suffering, and the Saudis and the Russians they're 191 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:25,000 Speaker 1: talking about cutting production. If production is cut, oil prices 192 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:29,160 Speaker 1: are going up, and our shell producers are going to 193 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 1: step in. UH so the oil prices. Uh if we 194 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 1: are looking at the you know, fifty five sixty uh marks, 195 00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:42,320 Speaker 1: they may go up and that will benefit Iran. So 196 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:46,199 Speaker 1: what can we do? We can, and we should talk 197 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:51,439 Speaker 1: to main consumers to prefer oil from the United States 198 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:56,200 Speaker 1: and from our allies, from Canada, from Saudi not from Iran, 199 00:13:56,640 --> 00:14:00,040 Speaker 1: and keep Iranian oil off the markets and try to 200 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:03,439 Speaker 1: decrease their revenues. All right, We're gonna leave it there, 201 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:05,400 Speaker 1: but I want to thank you very much for joining 202 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:07,680 Speaker 1: us and giving us your thoughts. Ariel Cohen as a 203 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:10,680 Speaker 1: Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and director of the 204 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:30,760 Speaker 1: Center for Energy, Natural Resources, and Geopolitics at the I A. G. S. Well, 205 00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 1: where were you on October nine, eighty seven? Well, some 206 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 1: people may not have been born by seven, so they're 207 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 1: in lies the quandary when it comes time to at 208 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 1: least remember Black Monday in seven. So here to help 209 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 1: us do so is Matt Mayleie. He is managing director 210 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:51,840 Speaker 1: and equity strategist at Miller tay Back. He is on 211 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:55,800 Speaker 1: site at the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center of course, Boston, 212 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 1: home to Bloomberg one oh six one Boston, Newbray Fort 213 00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 1: and Metro and the South Shore. Matt Malee, did you 214 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:08,200 Speaker 1: know that in nineteen eighties seven, the federal the interest rate, 215 00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:10,800 Speaker 1: the prevailing interest rate was like eight and three quarters 216 00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 1: of a percent, and a gallon of gasoline was eighty 217 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 1: nine cents eighty nine cents, heavin forbid, and then the 218 00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:20,040 Speaker 1: the rates were ever that high. I mean's I'm on 219 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 1: enough to remember them when they were in the team. Indeed, indeed, 220 00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 1: thank you. Don't don't encourage me, um, when you were 221 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 1: driving your Ford Escort down to uh, you know, the 222 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:32,960 Speaker 1: Solomon Brothers trading room. Tell us a little bit about 223 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:35,480 Speaker 1: what it was like that day and and what are 224 00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 1: some of the things that you were put together to 225 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 1: explain what happened on October the nineteenth seven. Well, it 226 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 1: was kind of a perfect storm. And we had, you know, 227 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:48,240 Speaker 1: the stock market have been going up for a long time, 228 00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:51,520 Speaker 1: and uh and and remember the investors and managers alike 229 00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 1: had all remembered the back of the end, had remember 230 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:57,120 Speaker 1: the horrible bear market of the nineteen seventies. And then 231 00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:58,880 Speaker 1: of course they at all at least had some sort 232 00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:01,720 Speaker 1: of a memory or very much from their parents of 233 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 1: the Great Depression. So jeez, they're starting to get nervous 234 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 1: about this uh uh, this this market having a big run, 235 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:12,640 Speaker 1: and people in the institutional side we're buying portfolio insurance 236 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 1: that we've all heard about. But individual investors again, they 237 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 1: also were worried because they had a lot of money 238 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:19,360 Speaker 1: and mutual funds. Then there was a third like that 239 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:20,920 Speaker 1: a lot of people don't talk about, and that was 240 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 1: in the takeover areas. I mean, I even boasting these 241 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:25,400 Speaker 1: guys with the big stars back down on Wall Street, 242 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:28,960 Speaker 1: and the takeover stocks were highly, highly leveraged. And what happened, 243 00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 1: and a lot of people don't know is that the 244 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:33,120 Speaker 1: real catalyst really came out of Washington, d C. When 245 00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 1: the Ways and Means Committee came out and decided they well, 246 00:16:36,120 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 1: at least they floated a trial balloon about changing the 247 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 1: tax the way these takeovers or the debt on these 248 00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 1: takesovers would be taxed. And these leveraged risk arbitrage guys 249 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:49,000 Speaker 1: all started getting some margin calls, started selling an aggressive way, 250 00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:51,800 Speaker 1: and that kind of started the the the whole thing rolling. 251 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:54,640 Speaker 1: When you know, the dominoes started falling after that, Matt, 252 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 1: your note is really tremendous. You also talk about that 253 00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 1: people were worried about longer term interest rates rising, and 254 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:05,960 Speaker 1: they weren't as worried about the effect of rising yields 255 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 1: and lower prices in their bond portfolios as much as 256 00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:12,400 Speaker 1: they were about potential takeover deals that would collapse due 257 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:16,240 Speaker 1: to tighter credit conditions. So, really putting things into perspective 258 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 1: before we delve too far into history, Lane, can you 259 00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:24,600 Speaker 1: draw any parallels from that period to today? Are we 260 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:28,080 Speaker 1: sort of setting ourselves up for a similar type of 261 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:30,760 Speaker 1: crash or do you think that that was really a 262 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:35,399 Speaker 1: confluence of idiosyncratic events that will not be repeated today. Well, 263 00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:39,200 Speaker 1: I yes and no or both, like is the way 264 00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:40,639 Speaker 1: to put it? I guess on the one yes, I 265 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:44,000 Speaker 1: do not think that we could have a one day 266 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 1: disaster like that. We have all the circuit breakers and 267 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:51,879 Speaker 1: and the FED is uh. I think all central banks 268 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:54,360 Speaker 1: are We're ready and willing to provide liquidity when when 269 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:57,680 Speaker 1: it is needed. Uh So, I think I'm very, very, 270 00:17:57,760 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 1: very surprising we have to be some sort of uh 271 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,359 Speaker 1: huge black swan uh to cause a twenty percent or 272 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:05,560 Speaker 1: thirty percent move in, you know, just in a day 273 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:07,639 Speaker 1: or two, because a lot of people forget that it 274 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:09,960 Speaker 1: was actually about a thirty five percent drop over several 275 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 1: days if you all in. But but at the same time, 276 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 1: we have a lot of you know, whether it be 277 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:17,560 Speaker 1: you know, we heard a lot about these algos and 278 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:20,479 Speaker 1: these high frequency tradeers and of course UH in the 279 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:24,719 Speaker 1: e t F. These are all rules based UH investors 280 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:27,120 Speaker 1: and when the market goes to a certain things, they're 281 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:29,720 Speaker 1: going to automatically buy. Well, that's we've we've seen that 282 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 1: in a nice way in the last couple of years. 283 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:34,360 Speaker 1: But the flips that can happen as well, So at 284 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:36,440 Speaker 1: some point we're gonna have another bearer market. Of bearer 285 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:39,119 Speaker 1: markets have not been outlawed, I'm do afraid. I am 286 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:42,160 Speaker 1: afraid that it could be again, not a crash over 287 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:44,159 Speaker 1: a couple of periods, a couple of days, but we 288 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,280 Speaker 1: could see a twenty orcent move over just a few weeks, 289 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:49,680 Speaker 1: which is not something that people will like very much. 290 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:53,120 Speaker 1: That there are not circuit breakers in certain bond markets. 291 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 1: Do you think that they're more susceptible to a crash, Well, 292 00:18:57,160 --> 00:18:59,679 Speaker 1: that that's certainly thing. I mean, it was only just 293 00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:01,360 Speaker 1: a year ago or a year and a half ago, 294 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:03,080 Speaker 1: I should say. One of the things that you know, 295 00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:05,600 Speaker 1: the real problem with with the decline in oil prices 296 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:07,359 Speaker 1: that took place in the latter half of two thousand 297 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:10,880 Speaker 1: fifteen and very early two thou sixteen was the almost 298 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 1: crash in the high yield market. And like you said, no, 299 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:19,160 Speaker 1: no circuit breakers. Liquidity can be very small there. Uh 300 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:21,720 Speaker 1: So when you get that kind of uh, forced selling. 301 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:24,200 Speaker 1: I mean that's the whole thing, is that crashes only 302 00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:26,600 Speaker 1: take place because of forced selling, not because of actual 303 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:30,720 Speaker 1: fundamental issues. And when you get highly leveraged uh sixth 304 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:34,160 Speaker 1: income markets and they start to you know, the bids disappear, Uh, 305 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:36,920 Speaker 1: it could have gone serious problem. There's no question, Matt. 306 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:41,720 Speaker 1: Is there something about Friday trading and Monday trading that 307 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 1: you can draw from history? Well, the one thing is, 308 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:48,480 Speaker 1: I mean it's funny. It's it's it's said, you know, 309 00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 1: people on Friday's are worried about Jesus, I won't be 310 00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 1: able to get to my money or not get to 311 00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:54,479 Speaker 1: my money, or get do a trade over, you know, 312 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:57,040 Speaker 1: for another couple of days. So sometimes they you know, 313 00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:59,119 Speaker 1: they panic a little bit on Friday's And it's the 314 00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 1: same thing, uh on Mondays. Is because over the weekend 315 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 1: they start talking to each other. I mean I literally, 316 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:08,960 Speaker 1: I mean that's kind of what happened. People started talking 317 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 1: to each other and said, oh my gosh, the stock 318 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:12,399 Speaker 1: prank was down a hundred points. Back then, that was 319 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 1: like unheard of. And people started panicking and they started 320 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 1: calling one eight hundred mutual funds and redeeming their mutual funds. 321 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:20,840 Speaker 1: And so that's how the whole thing kind of started 322 00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:23,479 Speaker 1: clicking in, and the thing is is today. I mean, 323 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:26,160 Speaker 1: there is a reason that the stock market is open 324 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:30,560 Speaker 1: the Friday after of of Thanksgiving because they don't want 325 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:32,800 Speaker 1: the market closed four days in a row because if 326 00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:36,200 Speaker 1: that happens, if something big happens, panic, real panic could 327 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 1: sit in over four days. That's really the reason why 328 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:41,040 Speaker 1: they don't close the day after Thanksgiving, no other reason. Matt, mainly, 329 00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:44,120 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Truly a fascinating 330 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,480 Speaker 1: note and direct mand people read it. Matt Malie is 331 00:20:46,480 --> 00:21:00,120 Speaker 1: a managing director and equity strategist at Miller TVAC and Company. 332 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:05,200 Speaker 1: The holy grail in the food industry to create something 333 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 1: that tastes decadent but allows you to stay slim. Here 334 00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 1: to talk about one development in the sugar industry is 335 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:17,359 Speaker 1: Iran Banniel, Chief executive officer and president of do mat Talk, 336 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:20,119 Speaker 1: which is based in Potactica in Israel. Here is in 337 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:24,440 Speaker 1: our eleven three oh studios today and Iran. Your company 338 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:29,880 Speaker 1: makes a sugar product that basically just enhances how we 339 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:34,879 Speaker 1: taste sugar correct, rather and reducing the amount of sugar included, 340 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:37,639 Speaker 1: rather than having an artificial substitute. Correct, Can you tell 341 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:41,200 Speaker 1: us a little that absolutely correct? What we do is 342 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:47,120 Speaker 1: we load the sugar onto a carrier, a mineral very 343 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:51,679 Speaker 1: common in food. A tiny little bit of mineral is 344 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:55,880 Speaker 1: enough to carry a whole lot of sugar. And when 345 00:21:55,920 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 1: those clusters of sweetness arrive at the receptors, they download 346 00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:05,359 Speaker 1: the sugar at the receptors and cheating and if you 347 00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:09,360 Speaker 1: wish the receptors to report something which is mild sweeter 348 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:14,680 Speaker 1: than the amount of sugar that you've put there. About reduction, 349 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,719 Speaker 1: I believe at least that is that for sugar consumption. 350 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:21,560 Speaker 1: If this were introduced, yes you have here. I brought 351 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:27,399 Speaker 1: you two examples. The jelly bellies are fifty sugar reduction 352 00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:32,560 Speaker 1: and the chocolate is thirty just to show you, but 353 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:37,080 Speaker 1: we got complained that the chocolate was still too sweet 354 00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:41,199 Speaker 1: a reduction, so we are continuing to reduce. You know, 355 00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:45,480 Speaker 1: one big question about the science behind reducing sugar is 356 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:50,679 Speaker 1: that if your body is expecting and experiencing a certain sweetness, 357 00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:54,440 Speaker 1: it prepares for the calories that accompany it. In other words, 358 00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 1: if people eat something that is calorie reduced, they may 359 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:01,680 Speaker 1: eat more after the words, to compensate for the lack 360 00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:03,720 Speaker 1: of calories that they received for the amount of sugar. 361 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 1: This is one sort of complaint with the artificial sweeteners. 362 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:10,200 Speaker 1: What have you found with respect to that. It's interesting 363 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:13,320 Speaker 1: that you say that it's a wonderful question, because what 364 00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:20,200 Speaker 1: happens without sugar is that sweetness is a teeny bit belated, 365 00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:26,080 Speaker 1: but then lingers on. So you did you really won't 366 00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:30,879 Speaker 1: reach out for the next bite so fast because you 367 00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:39,600 Speaker 1: really get a full sugary impression, taste, and satisfaction. So 368 00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:44,560 Speaker 1: it's actually a way to reduce even further the temptation 369 00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:49,600 Speaker 1: to take too much. So it's a lingering story too. 370 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,640 Speaker 1: Give us an update on how far along you are 371 00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,600 Speaker 1: in the commercialization of this. I know you're raised what 372 00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:57,960 Speaker 1: about eight a little bit more than eight million dollars 373 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:02,560 Speaker 1: recently you're announcing that where are you in the commercialization? 374 00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:06,159 Speaker 1: And does this then go into the food service industry, 375 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 1: perhaps in addition to just in a direct retail way. 376 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:17,520 Speaker 1: We were very fortunate. We did very little pr It 377 00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:21,080 Speaker 1: was usually to say, hey, we got some money invested 378 00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:24,680 Speaker 1: in us or something, and what followed was an avalanche 379 00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:30,280 Speaker 1: of emails to the website, etcetera. The whole world is 380 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:36,560 Speaker 1: looking for a sugar reduction solution which tastes great, which 381 00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:41,440 Speaker 1: doesn't have all those aftertastes, etcetera. So what happened is 382 00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:47,479 Speaker 1: wherever we had early success, like with chocolate, without naming 383 00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:52,600 Speaker 1: names because obviously I can't, but I wouldn't exaggerate. I 384 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:57,639 Speaker 1: think if I say, this startup from israelis talking to 385 00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:04,399 Speaker 1: over sixt of the sugar of the chocolate industry in 386 00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:09,040 Speaker 1: the world, and I'm meaning all the big You have 387 00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:11,560 Speaker 1: a big you have an ex nest ly an espresso 388 00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:15,480 Speaker 1: executive as part of your executive team. I believe that 389 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:19,439 Speaker 1: is true. So how much more expensive is it to 390 00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:23,240 Speaker 1: produce these chemicals that have sugar on them, that are 391 00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:27,840 Speaker 1: that are expressed as sweeter. I don't terribly go for 392 00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:32,159 Speaker 1: the expression chemicals because it sounds like, oh, you know, 393 00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:35,439 Speaker 1: we are using a mineral, and the mineral is the 394 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:38,840 Speaker 1: most common mineral on Earth. I love I love this. 395 00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:41,600 Speaker 1: By the way, you know, everything that we have is chemicals, right, 396 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:43,480 Speaker 1: I mean their chemical coursing for our bodies. But it 397 00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:45,840 Speaker 1: has taken on a sort of negative connotation. So we'll 398 00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:49,040 Speaker 1: call it a mineral. Okay, So mineral with sweetener on it. Yeah, 399 00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:57,520 Speaker 1: And um, what happens is that we don't have one 400 00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:01,440 Speaker 1: let's say, suck rose, the normal table sugar, not one. 401 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:06,720 Speaker 1: We've got three or three different models. They differ by 402 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:13,000 Speaker 1: the surface of the mineral that we use, and they 403 00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:18,640 Speaker 1: are better each for certain categories of applications. So we've 404 00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:27,720 Speaker 1: got our sugar which works marvelously in chocolate dry applications basically, 405 00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:35,520 Speaker 1: and we have our sugar that works great in baked goods, 406 00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:40,439 Speaker 1: and we talked to some of the giants there as well. 407 00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:49,280 Speaker 1: We have more difficulties with so does obviously the sugar 408 00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:56,840 Speaker 1: brakes the tongue. So does our water, and and we 409 00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,399 Speaker 1: are less effective in solids. I want to thank you 410 00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:02,560 Speaker 1: very much for coming in and enlightening us. Uh Eron 411 00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:05,720 Speaker 1: ban Yell is the chief executive officer and the president 412 00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,560 Speaker 1: of dou MAT Talk that is d O U x 413 00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:15,280 Speaker 1: M A t okay Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg 414 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:17,960 Speaker 1: p m L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to 415 00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:22,520 Speaker 1: interviews at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform you prefer. 416 00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:26,520 Speaker 1: I'm pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm 417 00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,840 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Lisa Abramo wits one. Before the podcast, 418 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,480 Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio