WEBVTT - How Senators and NFL Players Make High Risk Decisions 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:16.084 Pushkin. 0:00:21.604 --> 0:00:24.884 Hey, the election's over. We tried not to overdose on 0:00:25.084 --> 0:00:28.404 it too much, but we are genuinely curious what you 0:00:28.404 --> 0:00:30.284 want to hear from us on Do you want more politics? 0:00:30.324 --> 0:00:31.844 Do you want more sports? You want more poker, you 0:00:31.844 --> 0:00:35.124 want more AI? Do you like the interview segments with guests? 0:00:35.524 --> 0:00:37.524 Do you like when Marie and I disagree? Or do 0:00:37.564 --> 0:00:40.204 you like more agreement? Or what is working for you 0:00:40.364 --> 0:00:43.764 and what isn't. We would like you to send us 0:00:43.804 --> 0:00:48.044 an email with feedback to Risky Business all one word 0:00:48.444 --> 0:00:58.524 at pushkin dot fm. That's risky Business at Pushkin dot fm. 0:00:58.644 --> 0:01:01.844 Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. 0:01:02.164 --> 0:01:04.164 I'm Maria Kannakova and. 0:01:04.124 --> 0:01:04.844 I'm Nate Silver. 0:01:05.924 --> 0:01:09.404 So today on the show, we are going to revisit 0:01:09.444 --> 0:01:13.284 a Trump's cabinet picks. I say revisit because last week 0:01:13.484 --> 0:01:17.044 we talked about the first cabinet picks and they've gotten 0:01:17.124 --> 0:01:19.964 a little bit more extreme since then. So we're going 0:01:20.044 --> 0:01:22.324 to go into the game theory of the confirmation process 0:01:22.404 --> 0:01:25.444 in the Senate, what it means to cooperate and defect, 0:01:25.524 --> 0:01:28.164 and how we think these confirmations might play out. 0:01:28.324 --> 0:01:31.764 And then let's turn to the NFL where guardian caps 0:01:31.844 --> 0:01:33.764 are now being compared on the field. These are things 0:01:33.804 --> 0:01:37.644 that look a little gofy but protect you from concussions 0:01:37.684 --> 0:01:41.204 much more effectively than a helmet alone. Very few players 0:01:41.244 --> 0:01:44.364 are wearing means despite their medical benefit. We'll talk about 0:01:44.444 --> 0:01:46.764 why and what the game theory equilibriums are there. 0:01:56.004 --> 0:02:00.164 So let's get into it and start with your favorite topic, 0:02:00.284 --> 0:02:04.604 Nate politics. Even though the elections are now behind us, 0:02:04.644 --> 0:02:07.604 that does not mean we get to abandon the politics. 0:02:07.684 --> 0:02:11.204 Fe you are not allowed to retire. We are still 0:02:11.484 --> 0:02:15.524 talking about what's going to happen with this future administration 0:02:15.964 --> 0:02:19.164 Trump two point zero. You know, last week when we 0:02:19.164 --> 0:02:22.604 were talking about cabinet picks, one of the first picks 0:02:22.684 --> 0:02:26.404 was Marco Rubio, and you know, we we talked about 0:02:26.404 --> 0:02:28.204 that and it seemed like, okay, you know, this isn't 0:02:28.204 --> 0:02:31.364 that bad. That seems that seems reasonable. Maybe the rest 0:02:31.364 --> 0:02:33.604 of the cabinet will be quite reasonable as well. And 0:02:33.644 --> 0:02:37.284 then obviously the day in a few days after we taped, 0:02:37.684 --> 0:02:41.524 a bunch more nominations were released that were a little 0:02:41.524 --> 0:02:47.564 bit more eyebrow raising in multiple instances. So let's talk 0:02:47.604 --> 0:02:50.764 about those nominations, and let's talk about the process for 0:02:50.884 --> 0:02:53.684 confirming them, how we think that's going to play out, 0:02:53.924 --> 0:02:56.524 and what the decision game tree looks like for those 0:02:56.764 --> 0:02:58.844 Senate Republicans who might be in a position to make 0:02:58.844 --> 0:03:00.004 a difference. Yeah. 0:03:00.044 --> 0:03:03.044 Cool, Yeah, Maria, I took a little break with my 0:03:03.124 --> 0:03:06.884 partner and the cat skills. You a nice time. We 0:03:07.324 --> 0:03:10.564 maybe took a hike. We are on the edge of 0:03:10.644 --> 0:03:16.084 maybe hiking too far, too fast without enough water, So. 0:03:16.244 --> 0:03:20.724 Talking about negative ev decisions, Nate, you should have read 0:03:20.724 --> 0:03:23.524 one of the first posts I made on the Leap 0:03:23.644 --> 0:03:27.004 about the risk taking calculus when one goes hiking. But 0:03:27.404 --> 0:03:29.684 you're here, so it all worked out, But don't do 0:03:29.724 --> 0:03:30.364 it again. 0:03:30.884 --> 0:03:32.764 Once you're ninety five way to the tap and you 0:03:32.764 --> 0:03:33.764 can't turn back, can you? 0:03:34.204 --> 0:03:38.804 Yes? You can, absolutely, you can absolutely turn back even 0:03:38.844 --> 0:03:41.404 when you are ninety eight percent of the way there. 0:03:41.724 --> 0:03:45.404 You can, and you should. This is how accidents and 0:03:45.604 --> 0:03:48.884 accidental deaths happen. And I love you, Nate, and love 0:03:48.924 --> 0:03:51.164 your partner, and I want to see both of you 0:03:51.684 --> 0:03:53.804 healthy and back in New York City. 0:03:54.164 --> 0:03:56.484 It would have been a relatively cool way to if 0:03:56.524 --> 0:03:59.044 you're going to die right on top of a mountain 0:03:59.124 --> 0:04:02.084 and the catskills anyway, I. 0:04:02.044 --> 0:04:03.884 Would give a very moving speech at your funeral. 0:04:04.804 --> 0:04:08.764 Not able to escape politics, obviously, and the first big confrontation, 0:04:08.884 --> 0:04:13.244 the first big test of Trump's will is these confirmation 0:04:13.404 --> 0:04:17.724 picks of cabinet secretaries that might be a little unconventional, 0:04:20.124 --> 0:04:20.764 and that's. 0:04:20.644 --> 0:04:22.044 The understatement of the moment. 0:04:23.284 --> 0:04:25.684 There are four that I think really are drawing the 0:04:25.724 --> 0:04:29.444 most attention, which are at my gates AREFK Junior, Pete Hegseth, 0:04:29.564 --> 0:04:32.444 and Tulsi Gabbard. Can tell you a story about Tulsi Gabbard, 0:04:32.444 --> 0:04:37.564 who is alleged by Democrats to be like a in 0:04:37.604 --> 0:04:38.804 the sphere of Russian influence. 0:04:39.164 --> 0:04:40.764 Yeah, let's hear story time. 0:04:40.964 --> 0:04:44.484 In twenty twenty, we went to New Hampshire and this 0:04:44.564 --> 0:04:48.924 is just before the pandemic kind of shuts regular campaigning down. 0:04:49.844 --> 0:04:52.764 A group of US five thirty eight ers and we 0:04:52.844 --> 0:04:56.404 a little habit of like showing up unannounced at campaign 0:04:56.484 --> 0:04:59.644 offices just to see what they're up to. It was 0:04:59.684 --> 0:05:01.564 a cute little technique. And then I think some of 0:05:01.564 --> 0:05:04.604 the campaigns got smart. At the Biden office, by the way, 0:05:04.604 --> 0:05:08.124 it was totally empty except for the figures Skater Christi Yamaguchi. 0:05:08.284 --> 0:05:12.284 That was interesting. At the Mayor Pete office. You know, 0:05:12.324 --> 0:05:15.644 the instantly recognized us and like tried to usher us out. 0:05:15.764 --> 0:05:21.204 Very organized. But Telsea Gabberd has this giant empty office 0:05:21.404 --> 0:05:24.564 and the only clerk or employee there had a thick 0:05:24.684 --> 0:05:29.804 Russian accent. I'm just saying this actually happened. Uh, just 0:05:29.884 --> 0:05:31.004 a little data point there. 0:05:31.924 --> 0:05:34.324 I love it that that is good story time. I 0:05:34.324 --> 0:05:37.204 didn't know where that uh, where that story was going 0:05:37.284 --> 0:05:39.924 to go, but but that's that's good story time. Yeah. 0:05:39.964 --> 0:05:43.724 So these when I say eyebrow raising, I meant eyebrow raising. 0:05:44.044 --> 0:05:48.404 So obviously Telsea gabbert we we know that there are 0:05:48.804 --> 0:05:53.404 rumors of Russia loving her. You've got our kid, Junior, 0:05:53.444 --> 0:05:56.964 which is the one that I am really worried about. 0:05:57.084 --> 0:05:59.884 We talked a little bit last week about the potential 0:05:59.884 --> 0:06:03.004 harm that could come to science during a Trump administration, 0:06:03.684 --> 0:06:10.044 and this just seems to highlight that that the potential 0:06:10.044 --> 0:06:13.004 harm is probably is going to be actual harm. So 0:06:13.444 --> 0:06:17.324 I think that, you know, we have people being put 0:06:17.404 --> 0:06:21.004 up for appointments where either they have no qualifications or 0:06:21.004 --> 0:06:24.564 they have anti qualifications in things that are actually going 0:06:24.604 --> 0:06:29.324 to stop very important research from happening for at least 0:06:29.324 --> 0:06:33.164 four years, probably longer, because we know that the ramifications 0:06:33.164 --> 0:06:35.364 of this can really well, the. 0:06:35.324 --> 0:06:39.884 Average cabinet pic I think is measured in days. That 0:06:40.004 --> 0:06:40.364 is true. 0:06:40.644 --> 0:06:42.724 You know what, You know what, Nate, I actually didn't 0:06:42.764 --> 0:06:45.084 think of that that you've given me hope for the 0:06:45.124 --> 0:06:47.684 first time in a week. We do know from his 0:06:47.804 --> 0:06:51.244 last administration that yes, the average tenure of some of 0:06:51.284 --> 0:06:53.044 his picks is not long. So that's good. 0:06:53.844 --> 0:06:56.164 So there's that just for a baseline. If you get 0:06:56.204 --> 0:06:58.564 at polymarket O, the bending sites are similar. I consult 0:06:58.564 --> 0:07:02.044 for poly Market. Gates has a thirty percent chance of 0:07:02.044 --> 0:07:05.484 being confirmed, Tulsa Gabberd's seventy nine percent, RFK seventy six percent, 0:07:05.884 --> 0:07:08.804 and Pete Haggs seventy six percent as well. I'm trying 0:07:08.844 --> 0:07:15.284 to wonder if I'd take over under on those seventy. 0:07:16.244 --> 0:07:19.044 Okay, so Gates is the only one that they are 0:07:19.084 --> 0:07:20.764 thinking as an underdog right now. 0:07:21.484 --> 0:07:23.844 Yeah, Gates is the one where you have and now 0:07:23.844 --> 0:07:25.284 he can start to get in the game theory where 0:07:25.284 --> 0:07:29.924 you have like a lot of leaked reports of Republicans saying, 0:07:30.124 --> 0:07:33.884 oh everybody in the sentence against him. There are dozens 0:07:33.884 --> 0:07:37.884 of picks against him, but the fact that, like you 0:07:37.924 --> 0:07:40.404 don't have senators by name kind, they're saying, oh, everybody 0:07:40.404 --> 0:07:42.444 else is against them. They're not saying I am against him. 0:07:42.484 --> 0:07:45.284 They're saying other people my vote against him. So now 0:07:45.284 --> 0:07:46.844 we start to get in the game theory here where 0:07:47.124 --> 0:07:49.284 I have no doubt. First of all, Gates is seen 0:07:49.404 --> 0:07:54.204 as a loose cannon, as I minished lots of rumors 0:07:54.244 --> 0:08:00.164 of sexual and drug related promiscuities and infidelities and generally 0:08:00.164 --> 0:08:03.644 being a difficult colleague. Right, so I have no doubt 0:08:03.724 --> 0:08:07.804 that in a a private vote, what's the term of 0:08:07.804 --> 0:08:11.844 looking for a vote, an anonymous vote, that Gates and 0:08:11.884 --> 0:08:14.244 maybe even all these people would go down. Right. The 0:08:14.324 --> 0:08:18.484 issue is that is that if you oppose Trump, then 0:08:18.524 --> 0:08:21.004 Trump can try to kind of like nuke you from 0:08:21.524 --> 0:08:28.124 from orbit. So to do a basic math check here, Republicans, 0:08:28.204 --> 0:08:31.604 assuming that David McCormick wins in Pennsylvania, some networks haven't called. 0:08:31.604 --> 0:08:33.124 It doesn't seem to me like there's a path back 0:08:33.164 --> 0:08:35.484 for Bob Casey, but there will be a recount. But 0:08:35.524 --> 0:08:42.844 assuming fifty three, you have two Lisa Murkowski and Susan 0:08:42.884 --> 0:08:46.764 Collins who have repeatedly defied Republicans Susan Collins is up 0:08:46.764 --> 0:08:50.484 for re election in twenty twenty six in what's now 0:08:50.524 --> 0:08:52.644 a pretty blue state, Ma, Ma, and all the all 0:08:52.684 --> 0:08:56.244 the liberals who like taxes, actually main doesn't particually high taxes, right, 0:08:56.364 --> 0:08:58.964 they kind of moved to Maine, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, 0:08:58.964 --> 0:09:00.964 staying very blue. She's in a very difficult race, and 0:09:01.004 --> 0:09:02.804 so she's not going to vote for any of these, 0:09:02.844 --> 0:09:07.484 I don't think. And Lisa Rakowski, I assume has shown 0:09:07.644 --> 0:09:09.804 enough willingness to defy Trump in the past that she 0:09:09.884 --> 0:09:14.284 won't either. But still Republicans have, uh, you know, fifty 0:09:14.324 --> 0:09:16.284 three fifty one. They only need fifty because Jade Vance 0:09:16.364 --> 0:09:18.964 is the vice president, so they can afford to lose 0:09:19.324 --> 0:09:23.564 one more. And so who are the two more that 0:09:23.684 --> 0:09:27.324 will vote to oppose? And the answer is, I've been 0:09:27.324 --> 0:09:30.684 trying to do some data work on looking at the 0:09:30.724 --> 0:09:35.164 partisan loyalty and the ideology of different Republican senators. Like 0:09:35.164 --> 0:09:39.964 there's not like an obvious like third name. Before you 0:09:39.964 --> 0:09:41.844 would have said you need a fourth name too, right 0:09:42.244 --> 0:09:45.924 before you would have said Mitt Romney. But Mitt Romney's 0:09:45.924 --> 0:09:48.924 been replaced by actually a relatively moderate Republican in Utah 0:09:48.964 --> 0:09:51.004 name I think John Curtis, let me dibble, Chick, it 0:09:51.004 --> 0:09:56.924 is John Curtis. You have some newcomers like McCormick and Pennsylvania, 0:09:56.964 --> 0:09:58.604 and you would think in the long term, I mean, 0:09:58.644 --> 0:10:00.284 he you know, he won the race if he does 0:10:00.324 --> 0:10:03.244 win by zero point three points or something of Pennsylvania's 0:10:03.244 --> 0:10:05.204 a swing state, but it's six years out until his 0:10:05.284 --> 0:10:09.924 next re elect and these kind of younger, newer Republicans 0:10:10.084 --> 0:10:17.884 tend to be very conservative. It's quite generational where where 0:10:18.444 --> 0:10:21.324 you know, the traditional kind of Chuck Grassley's of the 0:10:21.364 --> 0:10:26.404 world are the types who will who will stand for 0:10:26.644 --> 0:10:28.724 order in the US Senate and think the Senate needs 0:10:28.764 --> 0:10:31.604 to play an important role. But the younger guns tend 0:10:31.644 --> 0:10:33.404 not to. They to say, well, I'm just gonna be 0:10:33.444 --> 0:10:36.244 Trump Trump, Trump, and then you know, maybe when reelection 0:10:36.404 --> 0:10:40.124 maybe not right. Tom Tillis in North Carolina, I believe 0:10:40.124 --> 0:10:43.324 he's up to reelect in twenty twenty six as well. 0:10:43.364 --> 0:10:47.124 That's the other race that Democrats will really target. He 0:10:47.204 --> 0:10:52.524 has shown more streaks of moderation. Lindsey Graham on paper 0:10:52.644 --> 0:10:55.644 is more of an institutionalist Senate candidate, but he seems 0:10:55.644 --> 0:10:58.124 to I don't know, I'm not sure what I'm trying 0:10:58.164 --> 0:11:02.164 to imply here, But Lindsey Graham seems very reluctant to 0:11:02.364 --> 0:11:06.124 defy Trump. And there's a lot of revenge motivated politics, 0:11:06.124 --> 0:11:08.804 like Democrats this or that other bad thing. Right now 0:11:08.804 --> 0:11:13.284 it's our turn. And so you know, John Thune, the 0:11:13.404 --> 0:11:16.124 incoming majority leader, might be one canny for some of these, 0:11:16.164 --> 0:11:18.764 but there's not like there's not like an obvious third 0:11:18.804 --> 0:11:20.804 and fourth strikes. 0:11:21.644 --> 0:11:24.644 Yeah, And I think that when we're talking about the 0:11:24.684 --> 0:11:29.164 game theory, right, we're we're looking at a decision matrix 0:11:29.164 --> 0:11:31.524 where you look at kind of the payoff structure. Right, 0:11:31.844 --> 0:11:34.804 if we think about it in terms of a prisoner's dilemma, 0:11:34.804 --> 0:11:37.884 which this kind of is, you can cooperate, right, so 0:11:37.924 --> 0:11:41.404 you vote with the Republicans or you defect, which means 0:11:41.444 --> 0:11:44.204 that you join kind of the Democrats in opposing some 0:11:44.244 --> 0:11:48.004 of these picks. And then but we if we look 0:11:48.044 --> 0:11:51.924 at the incentives, I think that in the immediate time horizon, 0:11:52.484 --> 0:11:58.084 the disincentive to defect is so ridiculously strong, right because 0:11:58.124 --> 0:12:00.284 we what do we know about Trump? We know he's 0:12:00.484 --> 0:12:03.564 vindictive as fuck, right, Like he does not like it 0:12:03.644 --> 0:12:06.604 when people go against him. He's going to be president 0:12:06.684 --> 0:12:10.004 and he has a lot of authority, and we have 0:12:10.204 --> 0:12:13.924 already seen during his presidency and in the last four 0:12:14.044 --> 0:12:16.404 years that people say a lot of shit about him 0:12:16.404 --> 0:12:19.364 in private and then they still go and support him 0:12:19.404 --> 0:12:22.844 in public. Right, they are completely two faced in this. 0:12:23.044 --> 0:12:24.804 And if you think about this kind of as like 0:12:24.844 --> 0:12:30.084 a time horizon, right, like you're gonna like shit's going 0:12:30.164 --> 0:12:32.804 to hit the fan with Trump much sooner than you 0:12:32.844 --> 0:12:35.404 will be padded on the back and said you did 0:12:35.444 --> 0:12:38.044 the right thing for our country. Right. It's kind of 0:12:38.084 --> 0:12:40.084 like climate change if you think about it, right, They're 0:12:40.084 --> 0:12:43.804 like these abstract incentives like I stood up for democracy, 0:12:43.924 --> 0:12:46.444 like I stood up for not you know, putting a 0:12:46.484 --> 0:12:50.004 potential Russian operative or someone who's anti science in a 0:12:50.004 --> 0:12:52.964 position of science. Blah blah blah. It's very abstract for 0:12:53.044 --> 0:12:57.324 it versus I'm going to get punished, like bad things 0:12:57.364 --> 0:13:00.044 are going to happen to me, and you know, I'm 0:13:00.044 --> 0:13:02.724 going to really feel it if I step out of line. 0:13:02.884 --> 0:13:06.244 And so I just I do not see that there 0:13:06.284 --> 0:13:09.204 will be kind of this wave of Republicans breaking ranks, 0:13:09.244 --> 0:13:11.444 Like I think that there's even a good chance that 0:13:11.484 --> 0:13:13.084 Matt Gates is going to get confirmed. 0:13:14.324 --> 0:13:16.204 Yeah, I mean, you know, the one pushback is I 0:13:16.444 --> 0:13:20.044 wonder if if we're being proper about the prisoner's element, 0:13:20.204 --> 0:13:25.484 I actually think that like defection actually is voting for 0:13:25.524 --> 0:13:26.124 these picks. 0:13:26.684 --> 0:13:30.884 Okay, I guess that's the We can frame it either way, 0:13:31.084 --> 0:13:33.204 and like then you'll just flip my arguments. But why 0:13:33.244 --> 0:13:34.404 is defection voting? 0:13:34.844 --> 0:13:38.484 Because cooperation is from the perspective of the prisoners, who, 0:13:38.524 --> 0:13:43.164 in this I guess somewhat literal sense, are Republican senators, right. 0:13:43.404 --> 0:13:47.244 I don't think that they think that Matt Gates being 0:13:47.284 --> 0:13:50.644 Attorney General would be good for the Republican Party. It 0:13:50.644 --> 0:13:53.444 would necessarily even be good for Trump. I mean, he's 0:13:55.484 --> 0:13:59.164 politely described as a as a loose canon, high risk 0:13:59.444 --> 0:14:03.124 of scandals, to high profile position, of playing into every 0:14:03.204 --> 0:14:06.404 critique that Democrats have. And now all of a sudden, 0:14:06.404 --> 0:14:10.124 we're in an anti incumbent moment, and now Democrats gonna 0:14:10.124 --> 0:14:12.364 be pushing back in twenty twenty six, I mean, the 0:14:12.364 --> 0:14:16.084 the you know, if they pick up those two sentencets 0:14:16.084 --> 0:14:19.444 I mentioned in Maine and North Carolina, then it's forty 0:14:19.524 --> 0:14:23.284 nine point fifty one and they have opportunities two years 0:14:23.364 --> 0:14:25.404 later to then take back the Senate. If there's a 0:14:26.164 --> 0:14:29.604 president Gretchen Whitmer or Jos Shapiro or Raphael Warnock in 0:14:29.604 --> 0:14:36.004 twenty twenty eight and the House where Democrats almost won 0:14:36.084 --> 0:14:38.404 the House this time, I would have to imagine in 0:14:38.444 --> 0:14:40.124 a midterm year their favorite to pick up the House. 0:14:40.204 --> 0:14:42.604 And that means that, like they can throw a big 0:14:42.684 --> 0:14:46.724 wrench in Trump's agenda and do a bunch of investigations 0:14:46.764 --> 0:14:51.244 and whatever else. So they want to they want to 0:14:51.244 --> 0:14:55.924 cooperate with one another, but individually, their incentives are to defect. 0:14:55.964 --> 0:14:56.124 Right. 0:14:56.164 --> 0:14:58.644 If you're not Alow, he's the weird case because he's 0:14:58.684 --> 0:15:01.644 kind of in this electoral zone, right, But if you're away, so. 0:15:01.564 --> 0:15:03.924 You're gonna you're flipping. You're flipping what I said, And 0:15:03.964 --> 0:15:06.844 I actually agree that that makes sense, that the that 0:15:06.924 --> 0:15:10.604 the labels of cooperation into action should change. And it's 0:15:10.644 --> 0:15:12.524 funny that it's funny that you say that because I 0:15:12.524 --> 0:15:14.484 actually thought ahead of time. I was like, wait, which 0:15:14.484 --> 0:15:17.124 ones are the co operators and which ones are the defectors. 0:15:17.324 --> 0:15:19.004 It wasn't clear cut to me, But I think your 0:15:19.044 --> 0:15:23.284 argument makes a lot of sense. So basically what we're saying, though, 0:15:23.324 --> 0:15:26.164 is that the incentives are basically for all of the 0:15:26.244 --> 0:15:27.324 Republicans to defect. 0:15:31.844 --> 0:15:44.684 We'll be right back after this message now, and the 0:15:44.684 --> 0:15:49.924 person it's the elemit. You can't communicate these guys, can 0:15:52.484 --> 0:15:56.684 you know? So yeah, one way to do it might 0:15:56.724 --> 0:15:59.484 be to say all of us are going to vote 0:15:59.484 --> 0:16:01.804 against them, right, or a very large number of us, 0:16:01.844 --> 0:16:04.564 and so therefore if you want to try to primary 0:16:04.644 --> 0:16:08.004 thirty of us, then then go right ahead, right right. 0:16:09.444 --> 0:16:15.804 You know what probably happens usually in the modern day politicians, presidents, 0:16:15.844 --> 0:16:18.444 I should say, or set up majority leaders don't like 0:16:18.524 --> 0:16:22.884 to bring votes to the floor in lest they think 0:16:22.884 --> 0:16:25.084 they can win. Right, So maybe the answer is, like 0:16:26.044 --> 0:16:31.724 there is some pretense for why Gates drops out conditional 0:16:31.884 --> 0:16:34.244 upon him being nominated in the floor, then I guess 0:16:34.284 --> 0:16:36.964 he's probably a favorite. I mean, look, I I don't know. 0:16:37.084 --> 0:16:41.884 I think it's just like with the other three, you 0:16:41.964 --> 0:16:48.884 can kind of I think our k juniors wacky. I think, 0:16:49.044 --> 0:16:51.484 you know, I worry, I'm boring. I worry most about 0:16:51.484 --> 0:16:53.404 the vaccine stuff, even though he's kind of said, oh, 0:16:53.444 --> 0:16:55.564 I won't fuck with vaccines too much. I mean there's 0:16:55.564 --> 0:16:58.884 a long track record of I also, you know, I 0:16:58.924 --> 0:17:02.404 part of me wondering strategically whether Gates is like a 0:17:02.444 --> 0:17:07.484 sacrificial lamb to say, Okay, you get this one scalp, right, 0:17:07.524 --> 0:17:09.124 but you better not fuck with me on the rest 0:17:09.124 --> 0:17:12.604 and the kind of like an exploit implicit equilibrium there, 0:17:13.644 --> 0:17:14.644 and that. 0:17:14.324 --> 0:17:19.044 That really sucks because not only is RFK junior, not 0:17:19.084 --> 0:17:22.484 only is he anti vaccine, but he has also said 0:17:23.564 --> 0:17:28.004 during his campaign that he wanted to pause all funding 0:17:28.204 --> 0:17:32.924 and all research and of infectious disease period to give 0:17:32.924 --> 0:17:35.484 it a rest, Like, dude, we didn't do well during 0:17:35.484 --> 0:17:38.124 the first pandemic. This is not this is not gain 0:17:38.164 --> 0:17:42.844 of function research. This is just general research into infectious 0:17:42.844 --> 0:17:45.284 disease that does not seem like a good thing to do, 0:17:45.404 --> 0:17:48.284 right to just pause all of that funding. We know 0:17:48.364 --> 0:17:51.084 that fetal cell research is going to stop like this, 0:17:51.244 --> 0:17:54.524 These are really really important things that have really big 0:17:54.564 --> 0:17:57.964 consequences for public health and for the future. And I 0:17:58.124 --> 0:18:02.484 just like, to me, that's an incredibly like if Matt 0:18:02.524 --> 0:18:05.204 Gaetz is a sacrificial lamb, then we have some scary 0:18:05.244 --> 0:18:09.564 picks ahead of us, right, including that including putting, you know, 0:18:09.604 --> 0:18:13.604 the pentagon in the hands of someone what are his qualifications? Right, 0:18:13.724 --> 0:18:17.164 Like this is this is to me, it's a little 0:18:17.204 --> 0:18:19.404 bit it's it's not a little bit, it's a lot 0:18:19.444 --> 0:18:22.644 bit frightening to think about that. But I think, you know, 0:18:22.964 --> 0:18:26.364 I just do not see how the game theory works 0:18:26.404 --> 0:18:31.364 for anything other than confirmation at the beginning, and and 0:18:31.564 --> 0:18:35.484 that you know, maybe Matt Gates has withdrawn, right, like 0:18:35.524 --> 0:18:38.564 maybe that doesn't actually ever come before the Senate, like 0:18:39.084 --> 0:18:42.964 as you suggest, might might end up happening. But if 0:18:43.004 --> 0:18:45.644 the other ones all get confirmed, like, this is going 0:18:45.684 --> 0:18:47.204 to be a pretty scary administration. 0:18:48.844 --> 0:18:50.124 Yeah. I mean the other thing you think about is 0:18:50.124 --> 0:18:52.964 whether there are any Republicans who don't care because they 0:18:53.204 --> 0:18:58.364 plan to retire. Mitch McConnell is an interesting one, another 0:18:58.404 --> 0:18:59.924 one who has had some health issue. Has been in 0:19:00.004 --> 0:19:03.524 office for one, two, three, five seven terms. Now his 0:19:03.644 --> 0:19:06.044 intent is unknown as to whether he's running in twenty 0:19:06.124 --> 0:19:09.724 twenty six or no. I mean, look, I think politicians 0:19:09.764 --> 0:19:19.924 are ninety eight percent craven opportunity. Yeah, right, he won 0:19:19.964 --> 0:19:22.084 the popular vote, right, I mean, he improved his margin 0:19:22.204 --> 0:19:25.044 and like all but two or three states or something 0:19:25.084 --> 0:19:31.484 like that, right, and so, but I don't know. And 0:19:31.564 --> 0:19:34.044 it is a repeated game in the sense that Trump 0:19:34.044 --> 0:19:35.924 will do other things that they don't like and like 0:19:36.004 --> 0:19:38.604 if you kind of have to, like if you capitulate. 0:19:38.724 --> 0:19:40.844 Now, I think you're you're kind of lining yourself up 0:19:40.844 --> 0:19:43.884 to capitulate, They're right. 0:19:44.204 --> 0:19:47.244 Yeah, No, I mean I think you're supposed to like throw. 0:19:47.324 --> 0:19:50.444 I mean, like I believe in this and things and life. 0:19:50.604 --> 0:19:52.164 I mean, if you kind of roll over for somebody, 0:19:52.204 --> 0:19:54.804 then they kind of correctly assume that you'll roll over 0:19:55.884 --> 0:19:57.844 the next time. And it's often best to like draw 0:19:57.924 --> 0:19:59.764 a line in the sand early if you're playing in 0:19:59.804 --> 0:20:01.244 like I mean, you know, one thing a lot of 0:20:02.204 --> 0:20:04.724 a lot of players do is is and it's gonna 0:20:04.764 --> 0:20:08.284 be dangerous actually, right, But like you know, if it's 0:20:08.324 --> 0:20:11.804 the first hand of the tournament and uh, and you 0:20:11.924 --> 0:20:14.644 raise and get three bets, so a player re re raises, 0:20:16.324 --> 0:20:20.524 you know, most humans, most poker players, psychologically, the first 0:20:20.524 --> 0:20:22.924 time it happens, you're more likely to get a call 0:20:23.044 --> 0:20:25.924 or even a four bet. It's harder to get that 0:20:26.004 --> 0:20:28.484 kind of aggressive action through the first time. People look 0:20:28.524 --> 0:20:32.524 at as a proxy for future aggression, so intuitively they 0:20:32.564 --> 0:20:34.964 I think probably under understand that. 0:20:36.124 --> 0:20:38.044 Yeah, no, I think I think that's right. I'm just 0:20:38.244 --> 0:20:41.444 remembering this one tournament where I played where a new 0:20:41.844 --> 0:20:44.044 guy came to the table. I three bet him and 0:20:44.084 --> 0:20:46.604 he just ripped it for like eighty big lines than 0:20:46.644 --> 0:20:48.444 someone else three bet him, and he did the exact 0:20:48.444 --> 0:20:51.044 same thing over. I don't think anyone three bet. 0:20:50.924 --> 0:20:55.804 Him again, like the last hand of the day or 0:20:55.924 --> 0:20:58.724 the last hand before a break, right, people kind of 0:20:58.764 --> 0:21:00.764 want to go and break do whatever they're going to do. 0:21:01.964 --> 0:21:05.324 But then you're like, Okay, you're fucking exploiting me, right, bathroom, 0:21:05.364 --> 0:21:06.964 and now you're three betting me, and so fuck you 0:21:07.004 --> 0:21:07.644 them all in. 0:21:09.484 --> 0:21:11.844 I'm wondering, you know, one of the things you said 0:21:11.844 --> 0:21:14.284 that was intriguing to me that it seems like a 0:21:14.284 --> 0:21:16.564 long shot. But I'm curious whether you actually think it 0:21:16.644 --> 0:21:19.484 might happen, Like, do you think that there's like a 0:21:19.564 --> 0:21:24.044 scenario where Republicans can get like thirty people to defect right, 0:21:24.084 --> 0:21:26.844 where it can be like a I don't think so. 0:21:26.964 --> 0:21:28.524 Like I think there are just too many people who 0:21:28.604 --> 0:21:32.084 believe in Trump and who and who actually like you know, 0:21:32.204 --> 0:21:39.164 don't don't want to defect but or cooperate. How likely 0:21:39.364 --> 0:21:40.484 is a scenario like that? 0:21:42.364 --> 0:21:46.284 I mean, they certainly haven't shown much backbone in the past, 0:21:46.364 --> 0:21:48.204 and in some ways Trump has like more of a 0:21:48.244 --> 0:21:51.484 mandate than he. I'm like, I think the equilibrium might 0:21:51.524 --> 0:21:55.004 actually be that like that gates get sacrificed and the 0:21:55.004 --> 0:21:59.764 others go through, you know, and then they can say, okay, 0:21:59.764 --> 0:22:02.404 well we do aligned somewhere, right, we do relign and 0:22:02.404 --> 0:22:07.124 gates are just so unacceptable on many different yeah levels 0:22:07.124 --> 0:22:10.564 and kind of almost almost care and tease like a 0:22:11.964 --> 0:22:14.804 either a circus act or an administration that really kind 0:22:14.804 --> 0:22:18.284 of overreaches and it becomes like harder to rain Trump 0:22:18.324 --> 0:22:20.284 in later. And I don't know, I don't talk to 0:22:20.364 --> 0:22:23.484 Republican or Democratic senators for that matter, right, I mean, 0:22:23.484 --> 0:22:25.924 if you hear reporters who do, they're like, well, in private, 0:22:25.964 --> 0:22:27.244 they're pretty reasonable. 0:22:27.244 --> 0:22:31.164 Well exactly in private, Like you have to do that 0:22:31.204 --> 0:22:34.124 shit in public, Like it doesn't count if it's in private. 0:22:34.204 --> 0:22:37.204 I have to say, like that's it only counts if 0:22:37.244 --> 0:22:39.444 you actually publicly then do it and put your money 0:22:39.484 --> 0:22:41.644 where your mouth is. It's like it's like people who 0:22:41.684 --> 0:22:45.564 can confidently to go back to poker very quickly. It's 0:22:45.684 --> 0:22:48.844 like the you know players on stream who always know 0:22:48.884 --> 0:22:51.284 what the correct thing to do is right and who 0:22:51.364 --> 0:22:53.644 confidently say, oh, you have to call here, you have 0:22:53.724 --> 0:22:55.724