1 00:00:15,604 --> 00:00:16,084 Speaker 1: Pushkin. 2 00:00:21,604 --> 00:00:24,884 Speaker 2: Hey, the election's over. We tried not to overdose on 3 00:00:25,084 --> 00:00:28,404 Speaker 2: it too much, but we are genuinely curious what you 4 00:00:28,404 --> 00:00:30,284 Speaker 2: want to hear from us on Do you want more politics? 5 00:00:30,324 --> 00:00:31,844 Speaker 2: Do you want more sports? You want more poker, you 6 00:00:31,844 --> 00:00:35,124 Speaker 2: want more AI? Do you like the interview segments with guests? 7 00:00:35,524 --> 00:00:37,524 Speaker 2: Do you like when Marie and I disagree? Or do 8 00:00:37,564 --> 00:00:40,204 Speaker 2: you like more agreement? Or what is working for you 9 00:00:40,364 --> 00:00:43,764 Speaker 2: and what isn't. We would like you to send us 10 00:00:43,804 --> 00:00:48,044 Speaker 2: an email with feedback to Risky Business all one word 11 00:00:48,444 --> 00:00:58,524 Speaker 2: at pushkin dot fm. That's risky Business at Pushkin dot fm. 12 00:00:58,644 --> 00:01:01,844 Speaker 1: Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. 13 00:01:02,164 --> 00:01:04,164 Speaker 1: I'm Maria Kannakova and. 14 00:01:04,124 --> 00:01:04,844 Speaker 2: I'm Nate Silver. 15 00:01:05,924 --> 00:01:09,404 Speaker 1: So today on the show, we are going to revisit 16 00:01:09,444 --> 00:01:13,284 Speaker 1: a Trump's cabinet picks. I say revisit because last week 17 00:01:13,484 --> 00:01:17,044 Speaker 1: we talked about the first cabinet picks and they've gotten 18 00:01:17,124 --> 00:01:19,964 Speaker 1: a little bit more extreme since then. So we're going 19 00:01:20,044 --> 00:01:22,324 Speaker 1: to go into the game theory of the confirmation process 20 00:01:22,404 --> 00:01:25,444 Speaker 1: in the Senate, what it means to cooperate and defect, 21 00:01:25,524 --> 00:01:28,164 Speaker 1: and how we think these confirmations might play out. 22 00:01:28,324 --> 00:01:31,764 Speaker 2: And then let's turn to the NFL where guardian caps 23 00:01:31,844 --> 00:01:33,764 Speaker 2: are now being compared on the field. These are things 24 00:01:33,804 --> 00:01:37,644 Speaker 2: that look a little gofy but protect you from concussions 25 00:01:37,684 --> 00:01:41,204 Speaker 2: much more effectively than a helmet alone. Very few players 26 00:01:41,244 --> 00:01:44,364 Speaker 2: are wearing means despite their medical benefit. We'll talk about 27 00:01:44,444 --> 00:01:46,764 Speaker 2: why and what the game theory equilibriums are there. 28 00:01:56,004 --> 00:02:00,164 Speaker 1: So let's get into it and start with your favorite topic, 29 00:02:00,284 --> 00:02:04,604 Speaker 1: Nate politics. Even though the elections are now behind us, 30 00:02:04,644 --> 00:02:07,604 Speaker 1: that does not mean we get to abandon the politics. 31 00:02:07,684 --> 00:02:11,204 Speaker 1: Fe you are not allowed to retire. We are still 32 00:02:11,484 --> 00:02:15,524 Speaker 1: talking about what's going to happen with this future administration 33 00:02:15,964 --> 00:02:19,164 Speaker 1: Trump two point zero. You know, last week when we 34 00:02:19,164 --> 00:02:22,604 Speaker 1: were talking about cabinet picks, one of the first picks 35 00:02:22,684 --> 00:02:26,404 Speaker 1: was Marco Rubio, and you know, we we talked about 36 00:02:26,404 --> 00:02:28,204 Speaker 1: that and it seemed like, okay, you know, this isn't 37 00:02:28,204 --> 00:02:31,364 Speaker 1: that bad. That seems that seems reasonable. Maybe the rest 38 00:02:31,364 --> 00:02:33,604 Speaker 1: of the cabinet will be quite reasonable as well. And 39 00:02:33,644 --> 00:02:37,284 Speaker 1: then obviously the day in a few days after we taped, 40 00:02:37,684 --> 00:02:41,524 Speaker 1: a bunch more nominations were released that were a little 41 00:02:41,524 --> 00:02:47,564 Speaker 1: bit more eyebrow raising in multiple instances. So let's talk 42 00:02:47,604 --> 00:02:50,764 Speaker 1: about those nominations, and let's talk about the process for 43 00:02:50,884 --> 00:02:53,684 Speaker 1: confirming them, how we think that's going to play out, 44 00:02:53,924 --> 00:02:56,524 Speaker 1: and what the decision game tree looks like for those 45 00:02:56,764 --> 00:02:58,844 Speaker 1: Senate Republicans who might be in a position to make 46 00:02:58,844 --> 00:03:00,004 Speaker 1: a difference. Yeah. 47 00:03:00,044 --> 00:03:03,044 Speaker 2: Cool, Yeah, Maria, I took a little break with my 48 00:03:03,124 --> 00:03:06,884 Speaker 2: partner and the cat skills. You a nice time. We 49 00:03:07,324 --> 00:03:10,564 Speaker 2: maybe took a hike. We are on the edge of 50 00:03:10,644 --> 00:03:16,084 Speaker 2: maybe hiking too far, too fast without enough water, So. 51 00:03:16,244 --> 00:03:20,724 Speaker 1: Talking about negative ev decisions, Nate, you should have read 52 00:03:20,724 --> 00:03:23,524 Speaker 1: one of the first posts I made on the Leap 53 00:03:23,644 --> 00:03:27,004 Speaker 1: about the risk taking calculus when one goes hiking. But 54 00:03:27,404 --> 00:03:29,684 Speaker 1: you're here, so it all worked out, But don't do 55 00:03:29,724 --> 00:03:30,364 Speaker 1: it again. 56 00:03:30,884 --> 00:03:32,764 Speaker 2: Once you're ninety five way to the tap and you 57 00:03:32,764 --> 00:03:33,764 Speaker 2: can't turn back, can you? 58 00:03:34,204 --> 00:03:38,804 Speaker 1: Yes? You can, absolutely, you can absolutely turn back even 59 00:03:38,844 --> 00:03:41,404 Speaker 1: when you are ninety eight percent of the way there. 60 00:03:41,724 --> 00:03:45,404 Speaker 1: You can, and you should. This is how accidents and 61 00:03:45,604 --> 00:03:48,884 Speaker 1: accidental deaths happen. And I love you, Nate, and love 62 00:03:48,924 --> 00:03:51,164 Speaker 1: your partner, and I want to see both of you 63 00:03:51,684 --> 00:03:53,804 Speaker 1: healthy and back in New York City. 64 00:03:54,164 --> 00:03:56,484 Speaker 2: It would have been a relatively cool way to if 65 00:03:56,524 --> 00:03:59,044 Speaker 2: you're going to die right on top of a mountain 66 00:03:59,124 --> 00:04:02,084 Speaker 2: and the catskills anyway, I. 67 00:04:02,044 --> 00:04:03,884 Speaker 1: Would give a very moving speech at your funeral. 68 00:04:04,804 --> 00:04:08,764 Speaker 2: Not able to escape politics, obviously, and the first big confrontation, 69 00:04:08,884 --> 00:04:13,244 Speaker 2: the first big test of Trump's will is these confirmation 70 00:04:13,404 --> 00:04:17,724 Speaker 2: picks of cabinet secretaries that might be a little unconventional, 71 00:04:20,124 --> 00:04:20,764 Speaker 2: and that's. 72 00:04:20,644 --> 00:04:22,044 Speaker 1: The understatement of the moment. 73 00:04:23,284 --> 00:04:25,684 Speaker 2: There are four that I think really are drawing the 74 00:04:25,724 --> 00:04:29,444 Speaker 2: most attention, which are at my gates AREFK Junior, Pete Hegseth, 75 00:04:29,564 --> 00:04:32,444 Speaker 2: and Tulsi Gabbard. Can tell you a story about Tulsi Gabbard, 76 00:04:32,444 --> 00:04:37,564 Speaker 2: who is alleged by Democrats to be like a in 77 00:04:37,604 --> 00:04:38,804 Speaker 2: the sphere of Russian influence. 78 00:04:39,164 --> 00:04:40,764 Speaker 1: Yeah, let's hear story time. 79 00:04:40,964 --> 00:04:44,484 Speaker 2: In twenty twenty, we went to New Hampshire and this 80 00:04:44,564 --> 00:04:48,924 Speaker 2: is just before the pandemic kind of shuts regular campaigning down. 81 00:04:49,844 --> 00:04:52,764 Speaker 2: A group of US five thirty eight ers and we 82 00:04:52,844 --> 00:04:56,404 Speaker 2: a little habit of like showing up unannounced at campaign 83 00:04:56,484 --> 00:04:59,644 Speaker 2: offices just to see what they're up to. It was 84 00:04:59,684 --> 00:05:01,564 Speaker 2: a cute little technique. And then I think some of 85 00:05:01,564 --> 00:05:04,604 Speaker 2: the campaigns got smart. At the Biden office, by the way, 86 00:05:04,604 --> 00:05:08,124 Speaker 2: it was totally empty except for the figures Skater Christi Yamaguchi. 87 00:05:08,284 --> 00:05:12,284 Speaker 2: That was interesting. At the Mayor Pete office. You know, 88 00:05:12,324 --> 00:05:15,644 Speaker 2: the instantly recognized us and like tried to usher us out. 89 00:05:15,764 --> 00:05:21,204 Speaker 2: Very organized. But Telsea Gabberd has this giant empty office 90 00:05:21,404 --> 00:05:24,564 Speaker 2: and the only clerk or employee there had a thick 91 00:05:24,684 --> 00:05:29,804 Speaker 2: Russian accent. I'm just saying this actually happened. Uh, just 92 00:05:29,884 --> 00:05:31,004 Speaker 2: a little data point there. 93 00:05:31,924 --> 00:05:34,324 Speaker 1: I love it that that is good story time. I 94 00:05:34,324 --> 00:05:37,204 Speaker 1: didn't know where that uh, where that story was going 95 00:05:37,284 --> 00:05:39,924 Speaker 1: to go, but but that's that's good story time. Yeah. 96 00:05:39,964 --> 00:05:43,724 Speaker 1: So these when I say eyebrow raising, I meant eyebrow raising. 97 00:05:44,044 --> 00:05:48,404 Speaker 1: So obviously Telsea gabbert we we know that there are 98 00:05:48,804 --> 00:05:53,404 Speaker 1: rumors of Russia loving her. You've got our kid, Junior, 99 00:05:53,444 --> 00:05:56,964 Speaker 1: which is the one that I am really worried about. 100 00:05:57,084 --> 00:05:59,884 Speaker 1: We talked a little bit last week about the potential 101 00:05:59,884 --> 00:06:03,004 Speaker 1: harm that could come to science during a Trump administration, 102 00:06:03,684 --> 00:06:10,044 Speaker 1: and this just seems to highlight that that the potential 103 00:06:10,044 --> 00:06:13,004 Speaker 1: harm is probably is going to be actual harm. So 104 00:06:13,444 --> 00:06:17,324 Speaker 1: I think that, you know, we have people being put 105 00:06:17,404 --> 00:06:21,004 Speaker 1: up for appointments where either they have no qualifications or 106 00:06:21,004 --> 00:06:24,564 Speaker 1: they have anti qualifications in things that are actually going 107 00:06:24,604 --> 00:06:29,324 Speaker 1: to stop very important research from happening for at least 108 00:06:29,324 --> 00:06:33,164 Speaker 1: four years, probably longer, because we know that the ramifications 109 00:06:33,164 --> 00:06:35,364 Speaker 1: of this can really well, the. 110 00:06:35,324 --> 00:06:39,884 Speaker 2: Average cabinet pic I think is measured in days. That 111 00:06:40,004 --> 00:06:40,364 Speaker 2: is true. 112 00:06:40,644 --> 00:06:42,724 Speaker 1: You know what, You know what, Nate, I actually didn't 113 00:06:42,764 --> 00:06:45,084 Speaker 1: think of that that you've given me hope for the 114 00:06:45,124 --> 00:06:47,684 Speaker 1: first time in a week. We do know from his 115 00:06:47,804 --> 00:06:51,244 Speaker 1: last administration that yes, the average tenure of some of 116 00:06:51,284 --> 00:06:53,044 Speaker 1: his picks is not long. So that's good. 117 00:06:53,844 --> 00:06:56,164 Speaker 2: So there's that just for a baseline. If you get 118 00:06:56,204 --> 00:06:58,564 Speaker 2: at polymarket O, the bending sites are similar. I consult 119 00:06:58,564 --> 00:07:02,044 Speaker 2: for poly Market. Gates has a thirty percent chance of 120 00:07:02,044 --> 00:07:05,484 Speaker 2: being confirmed, Tulsa Gabberd's seventy nine percent, RFK seventy six percent, 121 00:07:05,884 --> 00:07:08,804 Speaker 2: and Pete Haggs seventy six percent as well. I'm trying 122 00:07:08,844 --> 00:07:15,284 Speaker 2: to wonder if I'd take over under on those seventy. 123 00:07:16,244 --> 00:07:19,044 Speaker 1: Okay, so Gates is the only one that they are 124 00:07:19,084 --> 00:07:20,764 Speaker 1: thinking as an underdog right now. 125 00:07:21,484 --> 00:07:23,844 Speaker 2: Yeah, Gates is the one where you have and now 126 00:07:23,844 --> 00:07:25,284 Speaker 2: he can start to get in the game theory where 127 00:07:25,284 --> 00:07:29,924 Speaker 2: you have like a lot of leaked reports of Republicans saying, 128 00:07:30,124 --> 00:07:33,884 Speaker 2: oh everybody in the sentence against him. There are dozens 129 00:07:33,884 --> 00:07:37,884 Speaker 2: of picks against him, but the fact that, like you 130 00:07:37,924 --> 00:07:40,404 Speaker 2: don't have senators by name kind, they're saying, oh, everybody 131 00:07:40,404 --> 00:07:42,444 Speaker 2: else is against them. They're not saying I am against him. 132 00:07:42,484 --> 00:07:45,284 Speaker 2: They're saying other people my vote against him. So now 133 00:07:45,284 --> 00:07:46,844 Speaker 2: we start to get in the game theory here where 134 00:07:47,124 --> 00:07:49,284 Speaker 2: I have no doubt. First of all, Gates is seen 135 00:07:49,404 --> 00:07:54,204 Speaker 2: as a loose cannon, as I minished lots of rumors 136 00:07:54,244 --> 00:08:00,164 Speaker 2: of sexual and drug related promiscuities and infidelities and generally 137 00:08:00,164 --> 00:08:03,644 Speaker 2: being a difficult colleague. Right, so I have no doubt 138 00:08:03,724 --> 00:08:07,804 Speaker 2: that in a a private vote, what's the term of 139 00:08:07,804 --> 00:08:11,844 Speaker 2: looking for a vote, an anonymous vote, that Gates and 140 00:08:11,884 --> 00:08:14,244 Speaker 2: maybe even all these people would go down. Right. The 141 00:08:14,324 --> 00:08:18,484 Speaker 2: issue is that is that if you oppose Trump, then 142 00:08:18,524 --> 00:08:21,004 Speaker 2: Trump can try to kind of like nuke you from 143 00:08:21,524 --> 00:08:28,124 Speaker 2: from orbit. So to do a basic math check here, Republicans, 144 00:08:28,204 --> 00:08:31,604 Speaker 2: assuming that David McCormick wins in Pennsylvania, some networks haven't called. 145 00:08:31,604 --> 00:08:33,124 Speaker 2: It doesn't seem to me like there's a path back 146 00:08:33,164 --> 00:08:35,484 Speaker 2: for Bob Casey, but there will be a recount. But 147 00:08:35,524 --> 00:08:42,844 Speaker 2: assuming fifty three, you have two Lisa Murkowski and Susan 148 00:08:42,884 --> 00:08:46,764 Speaker 2: Collins who have repeatedly defied Republicans Susan Collins is up 149 00:08:46,764 --> 00:08:50,484 Speaker 2: for re election in twenty twenty six in what's now 150 00:08:50,524 --> 00:08:52,644 Speaker 2: a pretty blue state, Ma, Ma, and all the all 151 00:08:52,684 --> 00:08:56,244 Speaker 2: the liberals who like taxes, actually main doesn't particually high taxes, right, 152 00:08:56,364 --> 00:08:58,964 Speaker 2: they kind of moved to Maine, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, 153 00:08:58,964 --> 00:09:00,964 Speaker 2: staying very blue. She's in a very difficult race, and 154 00:09:01,004 --> 00:09:02,804 Speaker 2: so she's not going to vote for any of these, 155 00:09:02,844 --> 00:09:07,484 Speaker 2: I don't think. And Lisa Rakowski, I assume has shown 156 00:09:07,644 --> 00:09:09,804 Speaker 2: enough willingness to defy Trump in the past that she 157 00:09:09,884 --> 00:09:14,284 Speaker 2: won't either. But still Republicans have, uh, you know, fifty 158 00:09:14,324 --> 00:09:16,284 Speaker 2: three fifty one. They only need fifty because Jade Vance 159 00:09:16,364 --> 00:09:18,964 Speaker 2: is the vice president, so they can afford to lose 160 00:09:19,324 --> 00:09:23,564 Speaker 2: one more. And so who are the two more that 161 00:09:23,684 --> 00:09:27,324 Speaker 2: will vote to oppose? And the answer is, I've been 162 00:09:27,324 --> 00:09:30,684 Speaker 2: trying to do some data work on looking at the 163 00:09:30,724 --> 00:09:35,164 Speaker 2: partisan loyalty and the ideology of different Republican senators. Like 164 00:09:35,164 --> 00:09:39,964 Speaker 2: there's not like an obvious like third name. Before you 165 00:09:39,964 --> 00:09:41,844 Speaker 2: would have said you need a fourth name too, right 166 00:09:42,244 --> 00:09:45,924 Speaker 2: before you would have said Mitt Romney. But Mitt Romney's 167 00:09:45,924 --> 00:09:48,924 Speaker 2: been replaced by actually a relatively moderate Republican in Utah 168 00:09:48,964 --> 00:09:51,004 Speaker 2: name I think John Curtis, let me dibble, Chick, it 169 00:09:51,004 --> 00:09:56,924 Speaker 2: is John Curtis. You have some newcomers like McCormick and Pennsylvania, 170 00:09:56,964 --> 00:09:58,604 Speaker 2: and you would think in the long term, I mean, 171 00:09:58,644 --> 00:10:00,284 Speaker 2: he you know, he won the race if he does 172 00:10:00,324 --> 00:10:03,244 Speaker 2: win by zero point three points or something of Pennsylvania's 173 00:10:03,244 --> 00:10:05,204 Speaker 2: a swing state, but it's six years out until his 174 00:10:05,284 --> 00:10:09,924 Speaker 2: next re elect and these kind of younger, newer Republicans 175 00:10:10,084 --> 00:10:17,884 Speaker 2: tend to be very conservative. It's quite generational where where 176 00:10:18,444 --> 00:10:21,324 Speaker 2: you know, the traditional kind of Chuck Grassley's of the 177 00:10:21,364 --> 00:10:26,404 Speaker 2: world are the types who will who will stand for 178 00:10:26,644 --> 00:10:28,724 Speaker 2: order in the US Senate and think the Senate needs 179 00:10:28,764 --> 00:10:31,604 Speaker 2: to play an important role. But the younger guns tend 180 00:10:31,644 --> 00:10:33,404 Speaker 2: not to. They to say, well, I'm just gonna be 181 00:10:33,444 --> 00:10:36,244 Speaker 2: Trump Trump, Trump, and then you know, maybe when reelection 182 00:10:36,404 --> 00:10:40,124 Speaker 2: maybe not right. Tom Tillis in North Carolina, I believe 183 00:10:40,124 --> 00:10:43,324 Speaker 2: he's up to reelect in twenty twenty six as well. 184 00:10:43,364 --> 00:10:47,124 Speaker 2: That's the other race that Democrats will really target. He 185 00:10:47,204 --> 00:10:52,524 Speaker 2: has shown more streaks of moderation. Lindsey Graham on paper 186 00:10:52,644 --> 00:10:55,644 Speaker 2: is more of an institutionalist Senate candidate, but he seems 187 00:10:55,644 --> 00:10:58,124 Speaker 2: to I don't know, I'm not sure what I'm trying 188 00:10:58,164 --> 00:11:02,164 Speaker 2: to imply here, But Lindsey Graham seems very reluctant to 189 00:11:02,364 --> 00:11:06,124 Speaker 2: defy Trump. And there's a lot of revenge motivated politics, 190 00:11:06,124 --> 00:11:08,804 Speaker 2: like Democrats this or that other bad thing. Right now 191 00:11:08,804 --> 00:11:13,284 Speaker 2: it's our turn. And so you know, John Thune, the 192 00:11:13,404 --> 00:11:16,124 Speaker 2: incoming majority leader, might be one canny for some of these, 193 00:11:16,164 --> 00:11:18,764 Speaker 2: but there's not like there's not like an obvious third 194 00:11:18,804 --> 00:11:20,804 Speaker 2: and fourth strikes. 195 00:11:21,644 --> 00:11:24,644 Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think that when we're talking about the 196 00:11:24,684 --> 00:11:29,164 Speaker 1: game theory, right, we're we're looking at a decision matrix 197 00:11:29,164 --> 00:11:31,524 Speaker 1: where you look at kind of the payoff structure. Right, 198 00:11:31,844 --> 00:11:34,804 Speaker 1: if we think about it in terms of a prisoner's dilemma, 199 00:11:34,804 --> 00:11:37,884 Speaker 1: which this kind of is, you can cooperate, right, so 200 00:11:37,924 --> 00:11:41,404 Speaker 1: you vote with the Republicans or you defect, which means 201 00:11:41,444 --> 00:11:44,204 Speaker 1: that you join kind of the Democrats in opposing some 202 00:11:44,244 --> 00:11:48,004 Speaker 1: of these picks. And then but we if we look 203 00:11:48,044 --> 00:11:51,924 Speaker 1: at the incentives, I think that in the immediate time horizon, 204 00:11:52,484 --> 00:11:58,084 Speaker 1: the disincentive to defect is so ridiculously strong, right because 205 00:11:58,124 --> 00:12:00,284 Speaker 1: we what do we know about Trump? We know he's 206 00:12:00,484 --> 00:12:03,564 Speaker 1: vindictive as fuck, right, Like he does not like it 207 00:12:03,644 --> 00:12:06,604 Speaker 1: when people go against him. He's going to be president 208 00:12:06,684 --> 00:12:10,004 Speaker 1: and he has a lot of authority, and we have 209 00:12:10,204 --> 00:12:13,924 Speaker 1: already seen during his presidency and in the last four 210 00:12:14,044 --> 00:12:16,404 Speaker 1: years that people say a lot of shit about him 211 00:12:16,404 --> 00:12:19,364 Speaker 1: in private and then they still go and support him 212 00:12:19,404 --> 00:12:22,844 Speaker 1: in public. Right, they are completely two faced in this. 213 00:12:23,044 --> 00:12:24,804 Speaker 1: And if you think about this kind of as like 214 00:12:24,844 --> 00:12:30,084 Speaker 1: a time horizon, right, like you're gonna like shit's going 215 00:12:30,164 --> 00:12:32,804 Speaker 1: to hit the fan with Trump much sooner than you 216 00:12:32,844 --> 00:12:35,404 Speaker 1: will be padded on the back and said you did 217 00:12:35,444 --> 00:12:38,044 Speaker 1: the right thing for our country. Right. It's kind of 218 00:12:38,084 --> 00:12:40,084 Speaker 1: like climate change if you think about it, right, They're 219 00:12:40,084 --> 00:12:43,804 Speaker 1: like these abstract incentives like I stood up for democracy, 220 00:12:43,924 --> 00:12:46,444 Speaker 1: like I stood up for not you know, putting a 221 00:12:46,484 --> 00:12:50,004 Speaker 1: potential Russian operative or someone who's anti science in a 222 00:12:50,004 --> 00:12:52,964 Speaker 1: position of science. Blah blah blah. It's very abstract for 223 00:12:53,044 --> 00:12:57,324 Speaker 1: it versus I'm going to get punished, like bad things 224 00:12:57,364 --> 00:13:00,044 Speaker 1: are going to happen to me, and you know, I'm 225 00:13:00,044 --> 00:13:02,724 Speaker 1: going to really feel it if I step out of line. 226 00:13:02,884 --> 00:13:06,244 Speaker 1: And so I just I do not see that there 227 00:13:06,284 --> 00:13:09,204 Speaker 1: will be kind of this wave of Republicans breaking ranks, 228 00:13:09,244 --> 00:13:11,444 Speaker 1: Like I think that there's even a good chance that 229 00:13:11,484 --> 00:13:13,084 Speaker 1: Matt Gates is going to get confirmed. 230 00:13:14,324 --> 00:13:16,204 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you know, the one pushback is I 231 00:13:16,444 --> 00:13:20,044 Speaker 2: wonder if if we're being proper about the prisoner's element, 232 00:13:20,204 --> 00:13:25,484 Speaker 2: I actually think that like defection actually is voting for 233 00:13:25,524 --> 00:13:26,124 Speaker 2: these picks. 234 00:13:26,684 --> 00:13:30,884 Speaker 1: Okay, I guess that's the We can frame it either way, 235 00:13:31,084 --> 00:13:33,204 Speaker 1: and like then you'll just flip my arguments. But why 236 00:13:33,244 --> 00:13:34,404 Speaker 1: is defection voting? 237 00:13:34,844 --> 00:13:38,484 Speaker 2: Because cooperation is from the perspective of the prisoners, who, 238 00:13:38,524 --> 00:13:43,164 Speaker 2: in this I guess somewhat literal sense, are Republican senators, right. 239 00:13:43,404 --> 00:13:47,244 Speaker 2: I don't think that they think that Matt Gates being 240 00:13:47,284 --> 00:13:50,644 Speaker 2: Attorney General would be good for the Republican Party. It 241 00:13:50,644 --> 00:13:53,444 Speaker 2: would necessarily even be good for Trump. I mean, he's 242 00:13:55,484 --> 00:13:59,164 Speaker 2: politely described as a as a loose canon, high risk 243 00:13:59,444 --> 00:14:03,124 Speaker 2: of scandals, to high profile position, of playing into every 244 00:14:03,204 --> 00:14:06,404 Speaker 2: critique that Democrats have. And now all of a sudden, 245 00:14:06,404 --> 00:14:10,124 Speaker 2: we're in an anti incumbent moment, and now Democrats gonna 246 00:14:10,124 --> 00:14:12,364 Speaker 2: be pushing back in twenty twenty six, I mean, the 247 00:14:12,364 --> 00:14:16,084 Speaker 2: the you know, if they pick up those two sentencets 248 00:14:16,084 --> 00:14:19,444 Speaker 2: I mentioned in Maine and North Carolina, then it's forty 249 00:14:19,524 --> 00:14:23,284 Speaker 2: nine point fifty one and they have opportunities two years 250 00:14:23,364 --> 00:14:25,404 Speaker 2: later to then take back the Senate. If there's a 251 00:14:26,164 --> 00:14:29,604 Speaker 2: president Gretchen Whitmer or Jos Shapiro or Raphael Warnock in 252 00:14:29,604 --> 00:14:36,004 Speaker 2: twenty twenty eight and the House where Democrats almost won 253 00:14:36,084 --> 00:14:38,404 Speaker 2: the House this time, I would have to imagine in 254 00:14:38,444 --> 00:14:40,124 Speaker 2: a midterm year their favorite to pick up the House. 255 00:14:40,204 --> 00:14:42,604 Speaker 2: And that means that, like they can throw a big 256 00:14:42,684 --> 00:14:46,724 Speaker 2: wrench in Trump's agenda and do a bunch of investigations 257 00:14:46,764 --> 00:14:51,244 Speaker 2: and whatever else. So they want to they want to 258 00:14:51,244 --> 00:14:55,924 Speaker 2: cooperate with one another, but individually, their incentives are to defect. 259 00:14:55,964 --> 00:14:56,124 Speaker 1: Right. 260 00:14:56,164 --> 00:14:58,644 Speaker 2: If you're not Alow, he's the weird case because he's 261 00:14:58,684 --> 00:15:01,644 Speaker 2: kind of in this electoral zone, right, But if you're away, so. 262 00:15:01,564 --> 00:15:03,924 Speaker 1: You're gonna you're flipping. You're flipping what I said, And 263 00:15:03,964 --> 00:15:06,844 Speaker 1: I actually agree that that makes sense, that the that 264 00:15:06,924 --> 00:15:10,604 Speaker 1: the labels of cooperation into action should change. And it's 265 00:15:10,644 --> 00:15:12,524 Speaker 1: funny that it's funny that you say that because I 266 00:15:12,524 --> 00:15:14,484 Speaker 1: actually thought ahead of time. I was like, wait, which 267 00:15:14,484 --> 00:15:17,124 Speaker 1: ones are the co operators and which ones are the defectors. 268 00:15:17,324 --> 00:15:19,004 Speaker 1: It wasn't clear cut to me, But I think your 269 00:15:19,044 --> 00:15:23,284 Speaker 1: argument makes a lot of sense. So basically what we're saying, though, 270 00:15:23,324 --> 00:15:26,164 Speaker 1: is that the incentives are basically for all of the 271 00:15:26,244 --> 00:15:27,324 Speaker 1: Republicans to defect. 272 00:15:31,844 --> 00:15:44,684 Speaker 2: We'll be right back after this message now, and the 273 00:15:44,684 --> 00:15:49,924 Speaker 2: person it's the elemit. You can't communicate these guys, can 274 00:15:52,484 --> 00:15:56,684 Speaker 2: you know? So yeah, one way to do it might 275 00:15:56,724 --> 00:15:59,484 Speaker 2: be to say all of us are going to vote 276 00:15:59,484 --> 00:16:01,804 Speaker 2: against them, right, or a very large number of us, 277 00:16:01,844 --> 00:16:04,564 Speaker 2: and so therefore if you want to try to primary 278 00:16:04,644 --> 00:16:08,004 Speaker 2: thirty of us, then then go right ahead, right right. 279 00:16:09,444 --> 00:16:15,804 Speaker 2: You know what probably happens usually in the modern day politicians, presidents, 280 00:16:15,844 --> 00:16:18,444 Speaker 2: I should say, or set up majority leaders don't like 281 00:16:18,524 --> 00:16:22,884 Speaker 2: to bring votes to the floor in lest they think 282 00:16:22,884 --> 00:16:25,084 Speaker 2: they can win. Right, So maybe the answer is, like 283 00:16:26,044 --> 00:16:31,724 Speaker 2: there is some pretense for why Gates drops out conditional 284 00:16:31,884 --> 00:16:34,244 Speaker 2: upon him being nominated in the floor, then I guess 285 00:16:34,284 --> 00:16:36,964 Speaker 2: he's probably a favorite. I mean, look, I I don't know. 286 00:16:37,084 --> 00:16:41,884 Speaker 2: I think it's just like with the other three, you 287 00:16:41,964 --> 00:16:48,884 Speaker 2: can kind of I think our k juniors wacky. I think, 288 00:16:49,044 --> 00:16:51,484 Speaker 2: you know, I worry, I'm boring. I worry most about 289 00:16:51,484 --> 00:16:53,404 Speaker 2: the vaccine stuff, even though he's kind of said, oh, 290 00:16:53,444 --> 00:16:55,564 Speaker 2: I won't fuck with vaccines too much. I mean there's 291 00:16:55,564 --> 00:16:58,884 Speaker 2: a long track record of I also, you know, I 292 00:16:58,924 --> 00:17:02,404 Speaker 2: part of me wondering strategically whether Gates is like a 293 00:17:02,444 --> 00:17:07,484 Speaker 2: sacrificial lamb to say, Okay, you get this one scalp, right, 294 00:17:07,524 --> 00:17:09,124 Speaker 2: but you better not fuck with me on the rest 295 00:17:09,124 --> 00:17:12,604 Speaker 2: and the kind of like an exploit implicit equilibrium there, 296 00:17:13,644 --> 00:17:14,644 Speaker 2: and that. 297 00:17:14,324 --> 00:17:19,044 Speaker 1: That really sucks because not only is RFK junior, not 298 00:17:19,084 --> 00:17:22,484 Speaker 1: only is he anti vaccine, but he has also said 299 00:17:23,564 --> 00:17:28,004 Speaker 1: during his campaign that he wanted to pause all funding 300 00:17:28,204 --> 00:17:32,924 Speaker 1: and all research and of infectious disease period to give 301 00:17:32,924 --> 00:17:35,484 Speaker 1: it a rest, Like, dude, we didn't do well during 302 00:17:35,484 --> 00:17:38,124 Speaker 1: the first pandemic. This is not this is not gain 303 00:17:38,164 --> 00:17:42,844 Speaker 1: of function research. This is just general research into infectious 304 00:17:42,844 --> 00:17:45,284 Speaker 1: disease that does not seem like a good thing to do, 305 00:17:45,404 --> 00:17:48,284 Speaker 1: right to just pause all of that funding. We know 306 00:17:48,364 --> 00:17:51,084 Speaker 1: that fetal cell research is going to stop like this, 307 00:17:51,244 --> 00:17:54,524 Speaker 1: These are really really important things that have really big 308 00:17:54,564 --> 00:17:57,964 Speaker 1: consequences for public health and for the future. And I 309 00:17:58,124 --> 00:18:02,484 Speaker 1: just like, to me, that's an incredibly like if Matt 310 00:18:02,524 --> 00:18:05,204 Speaker 1: Gaetz is a sacrificial lamb, then we have some scary 311 00:18:05,244 --> 00:18:09,564 Speaker 1: picks ahead of us, right, including that including putting, you know, 312 00:18:09,604 --> 00:18:13,604 Speaker 1: the pentagon in the hands of someone what are his qualifications? Right, 313 00:18:13,724 --> 00:18:17,164 Speaker 1: Like this is this is to me, it's a little 314 00:18:17,204 --> 00:18:19,404 Speaker 1: bit it's it's not a little bit, it's a lot 315 00:18:19,444 --> 00:18:22,644 Speaker 1: bit frightening to think about that. But I think, you know, 316 00:18:22,964 --> 00:18:26,364 Speaker 1: I just do not see how the game theory works 317 00:18:26,404 --> 00:18:31,364 Speaker 1: for anything other than confirmation at the beginning, and and 318 00:18:31,564 --> 00:18:35,484 Speaker 1: that you know, maybe Matt Gates has withdrawn, right, like 319 00:18:35,524 --> 00:18:38,564 Speaker 1: maybe that doesn't actually ever come before the Senate, like 320 00:18:39,084 --> 00:18:42,964 Speaker 1: as you suggest, might might end up happening. But if 321 00:18:43,004 --> 00:18:45,644 Speaker 1: the other ones all get confirmed, like, this is going 322 00:18:45,684 --> 00:18:47,204 Speaker 1: to be a pretty scary administration. 323 00:18:48,844 --> 00:18:50,124 Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean the other thing you think about is 324 00:18:50,124 --> 00:18:52,964 Speaker 2: whether there are any Republicans who don't care because they 325 00:18:53,204 --> 00:18:58,364 Speaker 2: plan to retire. Mitch McConnell is an interesting one, another 326 00:18:58,404 --> 00:18:59,924 Speaker 2: one who has had some health issue. Has been in 327 00:19:00,004 --> 00:19:03,524 Speaker 2: office for one, two, three, five seven terms. Now his 328 00:19:03,644 --> 00:19:06,044 Speaker 2: intent is unknown as to whether he's running in twenty 329 00:19:06,124 --> 00:19:09,724 Speaker 2: twenty six or no. I mean, look, I think politicians 330 00:19:09,764 --> 00:19:19,924 Speaker 2: are ninety eight percent craven opportunity. Yeah, right, he won 331 00:19:19,964 --> 00:19:22,084 Speaker 2: the popular vote, right, I mean, he improved his margin 332 00:19:22,204 --> 00:19:25,044 Speaker 2: and like all but two or three states or something 333 00:19:25,084 --> 00:19:31,484 Speaker 2: like that, right, and so, but I don't know. And 334 00:19:31,564 --> 00:19:34,044 Speaker 2: it is a repeated game in the sense that Trump 335 00:19:34,044 --> 00:19:35,924 Speaker 2: will do other things that they don't like and like 336 00:19:36,004 --> 00:19:38,604 Speaker 2: if you kind of have to, like if you capitulate. 337 00:19:38,724 --> 00:19:40,844 Speaker 1: Now, I think you're you're kind of lining yourself up 338 00:19:40,844 --> 00:19:43,884 Speaker 1: to capitulate, They're right. 339 00:19:44,204 --> 00:19:47,244 Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I mean I think you're supposed to like throw. 340 00:19:47,324 --> 00:19:50,444 Speaker 2: I mean, like I believe in this and things and life. 341 00:19:50,604 --> 00:19:52,164 Speaker 2: I mean, if you kind of roll over for somebody, 342 00:19:52,204 --> 00:19:54,804 Speaker 2: then they kind of correctly assume that you'll roll over 343 00:19:55,884 --> 00:19:57,844 Speaker 2: the next time. And it's often best to like draw 344 00:19:57,924 --> 00:19:59,764 Speaker 2: a line in the sand early if you're playing in 345 00:19:59,804 --> 00:20:01,244 Speaker 2: like I mean, you know, one thing a lot of 346 00:20:02,204 --> 00:20:04,724 Speaker 2: a lot of players do is is and it's gonna 347 00:20:04,764 --> 00:20:08,284 Speaker 2: be dangerous actually, right, But like you know, if it's 348 00:20:08,324 --> 00:20:11,804 Speaker 2: the first hand of the tournament and uh, and you 349 00:20:11,924 --> 00:20:14,644 Speaker 2: raise and get three bets, so a player re re raises, 350 00:20:16,324 --> 00:20:20,524 Speaker 2: you know, most humans, most poker players, psychologically, the first 351 00:20:20,524 --> 00:20:22,924 Speaker 2: time it happens, you're more likely to get a call 352 00:20:23,044 --> 00:20:25,924 Speaker 2: or even a four bet. It's harder to get that 353 00:20:26,004 --> 00:20:28,484 Speaker 2: kind of aggressive action through the first time. People look 354 00:20:28,524 --> 00:20:32,524 Speaker 2: at as a proxy for future aggression, so intuitively they 355 00:20:32,564 --> 00:20:34,964 Speaker 2: I think probably under understand that. 356 00:20:36,124 --> 00:20:38,044 Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I think I think that's right. I'm just 357 00:20:38,244 --> 00:20:41,444 Speaker 1: remembering this one tournament where I played where a new 358 00:20:41,844 --> 00:20:44,044 Speaker 1: guy came to the table. I three bet him and 359 00:20:44,084 --> 00:20:46,604 Speaker 1: he just ripped it for like eighty big lines than 360 00:20:46,644 --> 00:20:48,444 Speaker 1: someone else three bet him, and he did the exact 361 00:20:48,444 --> 00:20:51,044 Speaker 1: same thing over. I don't think anyone three bet. 362 00:20:50,924 --> 00:20:55,804 Speaker 2: Him again, like the last hand of the day or 363 00:20:55,924 --> 00:20:58,724 Speaker 2: the last hand before a break, right, people kind of 364 00:20:58,764 --> 00:21:00,764 Speaker 2: want to go and break do whatever they're going to do. 365 00:21:01,964 --> 00:21:05,324 Speaker 2: But then you're like, Okay, you're fucking exploiting me, right, bathroom, 366 00:21:05,364 --> 00:21:06,964 Speaker 2: and now you're three betting me, and so fuck you 367 00:21:07,004 --> 00:21:07,644 Speaker 2: them all in. 368 00:21:09,484 --> 00:21:11,844 Speaker 1: I'm wondering, you know, one of the things you said 369 00:21:11,844 --> 00:21:14,284 Speaker 1: that was intriguing to me that it seems like a 370 00:21:14,284 --> 00:21:16,564 Speaker 1: long shot. But I'm curious whether you actually think it 371 00:21:16,644 --> 00:21:19,484 Speaker 1: might happen, Like, do you think that there's like a 372 00:21:19,564 --> 00:21:24,044 Speaker 1: scenario where Republicans can get like thirty people to defect right, 373 00:21:24,084 --> 00:21:26,844 Speaker 1: where it can be like a I don't think so. 374 00:21:26,964 --> 00:21:28,524 Speaker 1: Like I think there are just too many people who 375 00:21:28,604 --> 00:21:32,084 Speaker 1: believe in Trump and who and who actually like you know, 376 00:21:32,204 --> 00:21:39,164 Speaker 1: don't don't want to defect but or cooperate. How likely 377 00:21:39,364 --> 00:21:40,484 Speaker 1: is a scenario like that? 378 00:21:42,364 --> 00:21:46,284 Speaker 2: I mean, they certainly haven't shown much backbone in the past, 379 00:21:46,364 --> 00:21:48,204 Speaker 2: and in some ways Trump has like more of a 380 00:21:48,244 --> 00:21:51,484 Speaker 2: mandate than he. I'm like, I think the equilibrium might 381 00:21:51,524 --> 00:21:55,004 Speaker 2: actually be that like that gates get sacrificed and the 382 00:21:55,004 --> 00:21:59,764 Speaker 2: others go through, you know, and then they can say, okay, 383 00:21:59,764 --> 00:22:02,404 Speaker 2: well we do aligned somewhere, right, we do relign and 384 00:22:02,404 --> 00:22:07,124 Speaker 2: gates are just so unacceptable on many different yeah levels 385 00:22:07,124 --> 00:22:10,564 Speaker 2: and kind of almost almost care and tease like a 386 00:22:11,964 --> 00:22:14,804 Speaker 2: either a circus act or an administration that really kind 387 00:22:14,804 --> 00:22:18,284 Speaker 2: of overreaches and it becomes like harder to rain Trump 388 00:22:18,324 --> 00:22:20,284 Speaker 2: in later. And I don't know, I don't talk to 389 00:22:20,364 --> 00:22:23,484 Speaker 2: Republican or Democratic senators for that matter, right, I mean, 390 00:22:23,484 --> 00:22:25,924 Speaker 2: if you hear reporters who do, they're like, well, in private, 391 00:22:25,964 --> 00:22:27,244 Speaker 2: they're pretty reasonable. 392 00:22:27,244 --> 00:22:31,164 Speaker 1: Well exactly in private, Like you have to do that 393 00:22:31,204 --> 00:22:34,124 Speaker 1: shit in public, Like it doesn't count if it's in private. 394 00:22:34,204 --> 00:22:37,204 Speaker 1: I have to say, like that's it only counts if 395 00:22:37,244 --> 00:22:39,444 Speaker 1: you actually publicly then do it and put your money 396 00:22:39,484 --> 00:22:41,644 Speaker 1: where your mouth is. It's like it's like people who 397 00:22:41,684 --> 00:22:45,564 Speaker 1: can confidently to go back to poker very quickly. It's 398 00:22:45,684 --> 00:22:48,844 Speaker 1: like the you know players on stream who always know 399 00:22:48,884 --> 00:22:51,284 Speaker 1: what the correct thing to do is right and who 400 00:22:51,364 --> 00:22:53,644 Speaker 1: confidently say, oh, you have to call here, you have 401 00:22:53,724 --> 00:22:55,724 Speaker 1: to race here, you have to show if you have 402 00:22:55,764 --> 00:22:57,524 Speaker 1: to do this, you have to do that right the 403 00:22:57,644 --> 00:23:00,684 Speaker 1: chat experts. And then when you get them into that 404 00:23:00,724 --> 00:23:03,964 Speaker 1: spot playing live without seeing the cards, all of a sudden, 405 00:23:04,044 --> 00:23:07,004 Speaker 1: all of that expertise goes out the window and they 406 00:23:07,004 --> 00:23:09,404 Speaker 1: have zero dollars in earnings as opposed to the people 407 00:23:09,484 --> 00:23:12,484 Speaker 1: they're criticizing. So if you do things from a you know, 408 00:23:12,724 --> 00:23:18,204 Speaker 1: backseat driver, I don't know how many other analogies. 409 00:23:17,564 --> 00:23:19,164 Speaker 2: I can what they can also get. 410 00:23:19,004 --> 00:23:20,324 Speaker 1: Through in there, it doesn't matter. 411 00:23:20,364 --> 00:23:25,524 Speaker 2: What they can also do is draw lots right where 412 00:23:25,884 --> 00:23:30,124 Speaker 2: the let's say the fifteen Republican senators who are somewhat 413 00:23:30,884 --> 00:23:33,604 Speaker 2: reasonable go into a room and they have it's like 414 00:23:33,604 --> 00:23:36,924 Speaker 2: the NBA a lottery, right, and they pick thirteen names 415 00:23:36,964 --> 00:23:39,564 Speaker 2: and the final two have to just effect from Trump on. 416 00:23:39,684 --> 00:23:42,604 Speaker 2: Everything's knowing they'll be. But the way it works, you 417 00:23:42,604 --> 00:23:45,884 Speaker 2: have little favors. Right. Maybe let's say, uh, you know, 418 00:23:46,004 --> 00:23:49,924 Speaker 2: let's say that one of them is from Tennessee, and 419 00:23:49,964 --> 00:23:53,524 Speaker 2: then you know, the senator from I know, Jim Rish 420 00:23:53,604 --> 00:23:55,564 Speaker 2: from Idaho gets the last draw. They're like, how would 421 00:23:55,564 --> 00:23:57,564 Speaker 2: you like to be the president of the University of Tennessee? 422 00:23:58,124 --> 00:24:00,764 Speaker 2: Jim Rish GYGA football team. 423 00:24:03,084 --> 00:24:05,044 Speaker 1: Now the impressions are coming out. I love it. 424 00:24:06,164 --> 00:24:08,644 Speaker 2: They should draw the should and one of them should 425 00:24:08,684 --> 00:24:12,044 Speaker 2: be the fall Guide. You know, there are benefits to 426 00:24:12,044 --> 00:24:15,724 Speaker 2: being the one outlier Republican maverick. 427 00:24:17,364 --> 00:24:20,604 Speaker 1: With that, let's take a short break and switch to 428 00:24:21,364 --> 00:24:35,764 Speaker 1: actual quarterbacks and talking about football. So, the NFL has 429 00:24:35,924 --> 00:24:39,524 Speaker 1: just announced that players are allowed to wear guardian caps 430 00:24:39,884 --> 00:24:42,444 Speaker 1: when they're playing footballs. So a guardian cap, it's like 431 00:24:42,484 --> 00:24:46,324 Speaker 1: this padded thing that you put over your helmet that 432 00:24:46,364 --> 00:24:50,244 Speaker 1: will lower the risk of concussion. They're already being used 433 00:24:50,324 --> 00:24:54,004 Speaker 1: during practices and now players can wear them during games 434 00:24:54,084 --> 00:24:57,644 Speaker 1: as well. But a lot of players, the vast majority 435 00:24:57,644 --> 00:25:00,964 Speaker 1: of players, in fact, the vast vast majority of players 436 00:25:01,564 --> 00:25:05,084 Speaker 1: are not wearing them. And so I want to talk 437 00:25:05,124 --> 00:25:08,844 Speaker 1: about what that decision calculus is, Like, why would you 438 00:25:09,244 --> 00:25:12,244 Speaker 1: not where something that you know is going to make 439 00:25:12,804 --> 00:25:15,444 Speaker 1: the game much safer for you and that is going 440 00:25:15,524 --> 00:25:17,924 Speaker 1: to improve your long term health outcomes? 441 00:25:18,404 --> 00:25:22,724 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean some of my input on this or 442 00:25:22,764 --> 00:25:26,164 Speaker 2: inside of this. So from my book, I interviewed a 443 00:25:26,204 --> 00:25:29,084 Speaker 2: friend of mine who's a former NFL player named Dave Anderson, 444 00:25:29,324 --> 00:25:32,484 Speaker 2: and really good guy now runs a sports data company, 445 00:25:33,764 --> 00:25:37,284 Speaker 2: and you know, he described the culture of the NFL 446 00:25:37,404 --> 00:25:40,444 Speaker 2: where it really is a and I like football, not 447 00:25:40,484 --> 00:25:43,964 Speaker 2: trying to be a prude here, right, but it really 448 00:25:44,044 --> 00:25:48,164 Speaker 2: is like an almost warlike environment, right where it's like 449 00:25:48,364 --> 00:25:51,844 Speaker 2: next man up and careers are short. And also you know, 450 00:25:51,884 --> 00:25:55,044 Speaker 2: you have good data on like quarterbacks and a few 451 00:25:55,044 --> 00:25:57,084 Speaker 2: other positions, but for the most part, all the alignment 452 00:25:57,244 --> 00:26:00,724 Speaker 2: right are it's hard to evaluate, and so if you're 453 00:26:00,804 --> 00:26:08,804 Speaker 2: seen as not being tough, then then you might not 454 00:26:08,964 --> 00:26:11,724 Speaker 2: get that next opportunity, right, And he's like, yeah, there 455 00:26:11,724 --> 00:26:14,444 Speaker 2: are guys who like are you know, who are these 456 00:26:14,444 --> 00:26:16,844 Speaker 2: guys who are you know, big gracious football players. But 457 00:26:16,844 --> 00:26:18,324 Speaker 2: if you're not willing to get in there and like 458 00:26:18,364 --> 00:26:23,124 Speaker 2: get your head knocked around, then then then they'll you'll 459 00:26:23,164 --> 00:26:24,324 Speaker 2: be bypassed. 460 00:26:23,884 --> 00:26:27,964 Speaker 1: Right, absolutely, absolutely. I think that this macho culture has 461 00:26:28,044 --> 00:26:29,764 Speaker 1: a lot to do with it, and a lot to 462 00:26:29,804 --> 00:26:33,004 Speaker 1: do with the reluctance to adopt something that is clearly 463 00:26:33,044 --> 00:26:36,684 Speaker 1: beneficial for you. By the way, speaking of psychology, names matter, 464 00:26:36,924 --> 00:26:41,284 Speaker 1: words matter. Who the hell decided to call these guardian caps? Right, 465 00:26:42,204 --> 00:26:45,404 Speaker 1: I'm wearing a guardian cap, you know, like my little 466 00:26:45,444 --> 00:26:49,484 Speaker 1: grandmother cap that's guarding my head. Like call them something 467 00:26:49,524 --> 00:26:52,924 Speaker 1: manly and macho, right, Like, I don't know, we can 468 00:26:52,964 --> 00:26:55,964 Speaker 1: think about much better names that would make people want 469 00:26:56,004 --> 00:26:58,644 Speaker 1: to adopt them more than Guardian cap. But that's just 470 00:26:58,684 --> 00:27:02,644 Speaker 1: an aside. So I think that that what you're saying 471 00:27:02,764 --> 00:27:06,244 Speaker 1: is absolutely true. We do have this culture. And by 472 00:27:06,284 --> 00:27:08,884 Speaker 1: the way, I've seen some football games, like football's fun 473 00:27:08,884 --> 00:27:10,884 Speaker 1: to watch, part of me doesn't want to see it 474 00:27:10,924 --> 00:27:13,244 Speaker 1: because like every time someone gets hit on the head, 475 00:27:13,324 --> 00:27:16,204 Speaker 1: you know, every time someone's neck snaps, I just want 476 00:27:16,244 --> 00:27:18,084 Speaker 1: to close my eyes, you know, and just say, oh 477 00:27:18,084 --> 00:27:21,804 Speaker 1: my god, concussion. No no, no, no no. But yeah, 478 00:27:21,844 --> 00:27:25,724 Speaker 1: I understand it's a fun game to watch, but you know, 479 00:27:25,804 --> 00:27:31,084 Speaker 1: gladiatorial contests used to be fun too, where people actually died. 480 00:27:31,764 --> 00:27:35,124 Speaker 1: And to me, like this is this is the continuation 481 00:27:35,204 --> 00:27:38,204 Speaker 1: of that people have loved blood sports and watching people 482 00:27:38,284 --> 00:27:41,604 Speaker 1: get hurt and watching people go at each other, having 483 00:27:41,684 --> 00:27:46,084 Speaker 1: people play war on the field over and over and over. 484 00:27:46,124 --> 00:27:49,044 Speaker 1: This is not something that's new to America, Like this 485 00:27:49,124 --> 00:27:52,684 Speaker 1: is this is something that I think has been an 486 00:27:52,884 --> 00:27:56,844 Speaker 1: ingrained part of culture. I just wish that, you know, 487 00:27:56,924 --> 00:28:03,684 Speaker 1: we would actually understand why it's so incredibly important to 488 00:28:03,684 --> 00:28:07,164 Speaker 1: to try to to try to go back on that. 489 00:28:07,444 --> 00:28:10,364 Speaker 1: You remember a few weeks ago, Nate, we were talking 490 00:28:10,364 --> 00:28:12,564 Speaker 1: about the value of a human life. Right, what was 491 00:28:12,604 --> 00:28:15,644 Speaker 1: that number that you seem to have at the tip 492 00:28:15,684 --> 00:28:19,484 Speaker 1: of your finger. Ten million. So when people tell me that, 493 00:28:19,564 --> 00:28:22,644 Speaker 1: you know, football players their salaries are, you know, way 494 00:28:22,684 --> 00:28:26,044 Speaker 1: too high, I'm like, no, actually, the salaries are just 495 00:28:26,124 --> 00:28:31,404 Speaker 1: right and sometimes too low, because they are literally just 496 00:28:32,204 --> 00:28:35,884 Speaker 1: taking a flyer on their life, on their future, sanity, 497 00:28:36,284 --> 00:28:39,204 Speaker 1: on their brain function, on They're taking years off of 498 00:28:39,244 --> 00:28:41,804 Speaker 1: their life because a lot of these, you know, repeat 499 00:28:41,804 --> 00:28:46,404 Speaker 1: concussions are going to mean that you die ten years sooner, 500 00:28:46,804 --> 00:28:50,484 Speaker 1: twenty years sooner, that your healthy years are just completely reduced. 501 00:28:50,884 --> 00:28:54,124 Speaker 1: So yeah, they should be paid these insane premiums because 502 00:28:54,164 --> 00:28:57,644 Speaker 1: they are leveraging their health and their life for your 503 00:28:57,724 --> 00:29:00,924 Speaker 1: viewing pleasure. And I just wish that we could get 504 00:29:01,124 --> 00:29:04,244 Speaker 1: past that culture and understand, you know, the importance of 505 00:29:04,284 --> 00:29:08,404 Speaker 1: protecting these players and not forcing them to make that choice. Right, 506 00:29:08,964 --> 00:29:12,284 Speaker 1: instead of saying you can wear Guardian caps, why doesn't 507 00:29:12,324 --> 00:29:15,204 Speaker 1: the NFL go and say from now on, this is 508 00:29:15,244 --> 00:29:17,964 Speaker 1: the new helmet, right, this is the new regulation helmet 509 00:29:17,964 --> 00:29:19,244 Speaker 1: that everyone wears. 510 00:29:20,404 --> 00:29:22,004 Speaker 2: And by the way, at first yet the name and 511 00:29:22,004 --> 00:29:24,244 Speaker 2: then at first I thought it was like, when I 512 00:29:24,244 --> 00:29:26,324 Speaker 2: first heard about it was guardian cups, and I wonder 513 00:29:26,324 --> 00:29:28,844 Speaker 2: if you got extra protection for your manhood and how 514 00:29:28,884 --> 00:29:33,244 Speaker 2: that would be different. Maybe that's funny. I mean the 515 00:29:33,244 --> 00:29:36,964 Speaker 2: other thing about these helmets or cups caps. 516 00:29:36,724 --> 00:29:40,764 Speaker 1: Excuse me, right, if they didn't even call them a helmet, 517 00:29:40,764 --> 00:29:43,644 Speaker 1: they called them a cap, please continue. 518 00:29:43,444 --> 00:29:45,484 Speaker 2: Right, You look, they look a little weird, right, I mean, 519 00:29:45,484 --> 00:29:47,244 Speaker 2: they're they're raw form. They kind of it's like turtle 520 00:29:47,324 --> 00:29:50,324 Speaker 2: shell look, and then you can kind of like drape 521 00:29:50,364 --> 00:29:52,964 Speaker 2: like the team's logo over it, but like so it 522 00:29:53,004 --> 00:29:55,564 Speaker 2: stands out and kind of everybody is kind of saying, Okay, 523 00:29:55,564 --> 00:29:58,804 Speaker 2: there's a guy who's taking extra protection, right, I mean, 524 00:29:58,884 --> 00:30:02,164 Speaker 2: you know, so some places will say that, like I 525 00:30:02,204 --> 00:30:04,564 Speaker 2: don't like the way it feels, and you know, if 526 00:30:04,564 --> 00:30:09,044 Speaker 2: the compromises performance, then then whatever, right, I mean, you know, 527 00:30:09,164 --> 00:30:12,244 Speaker 2: I mean, if it's true that a purchect performance, then 528 00:30:12,284 --> 00:30:13,884 Speaker 2: there's something there. But I think it's more that it 529 00:30:13,964 --> 00:30:17,204 Speaker 2: looks Yeah, it looks like this is the sport. It's 530 00:30:17,244 --> 00:30:22,204 Speaker 2: not the most progressive culture, and you're selecting for people 531 00:30:22,204 --> 00:30:27,644 Speaker 2: who were selected for for their aggression and tolerance for risk. 532 00:30:27,684 --> 00:30:31,284 Speaker 2: Because every position in the field except perhaps a kicker 533 00:30:31,804 --> 00:30:35,444 Speaker 2: and a punter are undertaking significant risk every time they 534 00:30:35,444 --> 00:30:38,124 Speaker 2: take the field, right, And I mean you you know, 535 00:30:38,284 --> 00:30:40,364 Speaker 2: a huge percentage of players are going to face a 536 00:30:40,364 --> 00:30:44,204 Speaker 2: severe injury at some point in their careers. It's kind 537 00:30:44,204 --> 00:30:48,844 Speaker 2: of normal, unfortunately. And like one of the things Dave 538 00:30:48,884 --> 00:30:51,444 Speaker 2: Anderson told me is that, yeah, if I text my 539 00:30:51,644 --> 00:30:53,764 Speaker 2: being a play for the Houston Texans, mostly if I 540 00:30:53,844 --> 00:30:57,684 Speaker 2: text my chet group of like human group chat excuse me, 541 00:30:57,724 --> 00:31:00,964 Speaker 2: of Houston Texans buddies who played golf with or fans 542 00:31:01,004 --> 00:31:04,284 Speaker 2: football with or whatever, then probably half of them are 543 00:31:04,284 --> 00:31:06,324 Speaker 2: not really in great shape right now. Right, they can't 544 00:31:06,444 --> 00:31:10,924 Speaker 2: do normal things that are normal forty something formerly healthy 545 00:31:10,964 --> 00:31:13,604 Speaker 2: athletic male would do, and like, so they're already kind 546 00:31:13,644 --> 00:31:18,604 Speaker 2: of like making this sacrifice. Yeah, so look, I mean 547 00:31:18,644 --> 00:31:21,404 Speaker 2: I think, you know, the equilibrium is probably that the 548 00:31:21,484 --> 00:31:26,124 Speaker 2: NFL has to like mandate maybe certain positions wear it 549 00:31:26,604 --> 00:31:30,284 Speaker 2: or rookies after a certain date where it and also 550 00:31:30,324 --> 00:31:33,484 Speaker 2: work kind of technology to make it more esthetically pleasing. 551 00:31:33,524 --> 00:31:35,564 Speaker 2: I'm sure there's been resources poured into that. 552 00:31:35,684 --> 00:31:39,164 Speaker 1: Right, absolutely, absolutely, And I do think that though that 553 00:31:39,204 --> 00:31:40,884 Speaker 1: the mandate has to be it has to come from 554 00:31:40,884 --> 00:31:44,764 Speaker 1: the top, Otherwise I don't see this change happening, and 555 00:31:44,964 --> 00:31:47,724 Speaker 1: we already, by the way, see the players wearing them 556 00:31:47,804 --> 00:31:51,084 Speaker 1: during practices, and I don't think there's any impact on performance, right, 557 00:31:51,124 --> 00:31:54,324 Speaker 1: So everyone wears them during practice, and your eye will 558 00:31:54,364 --> 00:31:56,964 Speaker 1: get used to it. It's going to stop looking goofy. 559 00:31:57,324 --> 00:32:00,324 Speaker 1: Just think for a second, like try to visualize different 560 00:32:00,324 --> 00:32:03,764 Speaker 1: sports uniforms. A ton of sports look goofy if you 561 00:32:03,844 --> 00:32:06,444 Speaker 1: just think about it in the abstract. But we're used 562 00:32:06,444 --> 00:32:08,844 Speaker 1: to seeing it, so it looks it looks totally normal, right, 563 00:32:08,884 --> 00:32:11,844 Speaker 1: It just looks like the uniform for that sport. So 564 00:32:11,884 --> 00:32:14,884 Speaker 1: I think that, you know, two years from now, people 565 00:32:14,924 --> 00:32:18,404 Speaker 1: won't remember. Let me give you another example, skiing, right, 566 00:32:18,444 --> 00:32:21,324 Speaker 1: So downhill skiing, no one used to wear helmets. So 567 00:32:21,444 --> 00:32:24,844 Speaker 1: I started skiing when I was four years old, and no, 568 00:32:24,924 --> 00:32:28,524 Speaker 1: but not a single helmet to be seen, right, Everyone's 569 00:32:28,564 --> 00:32:31,604 Speaker 1: just wearing hats. Then you start seeing a few people, 570 00:32:31,764 --> 00:32:35,604 Speaker 1: very early adopters wearing helmets after research came out became 571 00:32:35,684 --> 00:32:37,764 Speaker 1: clear you know how important it was, how much it 572 00:32:37,804 --> 00:32:41,364 Speaker 1: could protect you. And my family was actually incredibly early 573 00:32:41,444 --> 00:32:45,124 Speaker 1: on that we basically immediately got helmets, and I never 574 00:32:45,164 --> 00:32:47,844 Speaker 1: wanted to wear one because I looked silly, right because 575 00:32:47,884 --> 00:32:50,404 Speaker 1: none of the other kids were wearing them, but we 576 00:32:50,484 --> 00:32:53,844 Speaker 1: did anyway, and now you can't. Every single person on 577 00:32:53,844 --> 00:32:56,724 Speaker 1: the mountain wears helmets, right Like, there's if you're the 578 00:32:56,764 --> 00:32:58,964 Speaker 1: person who's not wearing a helmet, you look like a 579 00:32:59,044 --> 00:33:02,044 Speaker 1: dumbass and people are like, who is this absolute idiot 580 00:33:02,404 --> 00:33:05,204 Speaker 1: not wearing a helmet when everyone knows that you have 581 00:33:05,284 --> 00:33:08,124 Speaker 1: to wear a helmet? And this happened in a decade, 582 00:33:08,324 --> 00:33:11,804 Speaker 1: right like it was actually incredibly short when you think 583 00:33:11,804 --> 00:33:15,044 Speaker 1: about it, from everyone just wears your winter hat to 584 00:33:15,204 --> 00:33:18,724 Speaker 1: every single person wears a helmet, So these changes are 585 00:33:18,764 --> 00:33:23,244 Speaker 1: absolutely possible, and it doesn't it no longer looks goofy. 586 00:33:23,804 --> 00:33:26,044 Speaker 1: In fact, you look like an idiot for doing something different. 587 00:33:26,244 --> 00:33:28,404 Speaker 1: So I'm willing to bet that if we see a mandate, 588 00:33:28,444 --> 00:33:31,884 Speaker 1: we're going to start seeing you know that we will 589 00:33:31,884 --> 00:33:34,084 Speaker 1: no longer even notice and be like, oh, you know, 590 00:33:34,124 --> 00:33:37,604 Speaker 1: look how silly that looks. And we know that there 591 00:33:37,604 --> 00:33:43,964 Speaker 1: are sports that have huge risk injuries, huge potential for 592 00:33:44,164 --> 00:33:48,484 Speaker 1: concussions where the concussion rate is actually incredibly low, such 593 00:33:48,524 --> 00:33:52,484 Speaker 1: as racing. Right so Formula one happening in Las Vegas 594 00:33:52,484 --> 00:33:56,404 Speaker 1: in a few days, race car drivers those collisions. Holy shit, right, 595 00:33:56,764 --> 00:33:59,324 Speaker 1: Like you would think that these guys would just like 596 00:33:59,364 --> 00:34:02,204 Speaker 1: have concussions all the time. No, because they have these 597 00:34:02,324 --> 00:34:05,364 Speaker 1: crazy helmets that not only protect their heads, but protect 598 00:34:05,404 --> 00:34:08,764 Speaker 1: their necks and protect them from kind of that sort 599 00:34:08,764 --> 00:34:11,684 Speaker 1: of whiplash that is what actually causes concussions a lot 600 00:34:11,724 --> 00:34:15,844 Speaker 1: at the time. So you have these things that we see, 601 00:34:15,884 --> 00:34:18,084 Speaker 1: we have the technology, we know how to do it, 602 00:34:18,444 --> 00:34:21,724 Speaker 1: we know how to protect people, and yet there's this, 603 00:34:21,964 --> 00:34:25,364 Speaker 1: just as you pointed it out, we're coming full circle. 604 00:34:25,404 --> 00:34:29,444 Speaker 1: There's kind of this macho false bravado that makes it 605 00:34:29,484 --> 00:34:33,044 Speaker 1: seem not manly to protect yourself. I hope that we're 606 00:34:33,124 --> 00:34:35,964 Speaker 1: able to kind of turn that around because I want 607 00:34:36,004 --> 00:34:38,644 Speaker 1: people to be able to enjoy sports. I want people 608 00:34:38,684 --> 00:34:41,004 Speaker 1: to be able to enjoy football, and I want these 609 00:34:41,884 --> 00:34:46,124 Speaker 1: players to have good lives and healthy lives ahead of them. 610 00:34:46,324 --> 00:34:47,924 Speaker 1: You know. I don't want them to have to mortgage 611 00:34:47,964 --> 00:34:52,764 Speaker 1: their marriages, their children, their future, everything just to bring 612 00:34:53,004 --> 00:34:55,124 Speaker 1: some people pleasure for a few years. 613 00:34:56,044 --> 00:35:01,484 Speaker 2: Now. Look, I mean again, self selected for muchismo population, 614 00:35:01,684 --> 00:35:05,084 Speaker 2: and like you know, a kind of common theme of 615 00:35:05,124 --> 00:35:11,364 Speaker 2: the show is that behaviors that seem irrational aren't necessarily irrational, 616 00:35:11,604 --> 00:35:13,684 Speaker 2: I you know, because it's kind of how you define 617 00:35:14,164 --> 00:35:16,964 Speaker 2: rationality and if you lose the prestige or but yeah, 618 00:35:17,004 --> 00:35:19,884 Speaker 2: I look, I mean, you know, if you have some 619 00:35:19,924 --> 00:35:24,924 Speaker 2: prominent players too who are like, I'm a unimpeachably cool 620 00:35:25,044 --> 00:35:29,684 Speaker 2: NFL player and now I'm wearing this thing, right, then 621 00:35:29,804 --> 00:35:32,604 Speaker 2: then that might change things a little bit. It's not 622 00:35:32,644 --> 00:35:35,724 Speaker 2: like they're you know, in hockey. I mean, you know, 623 00:35:35,964 --> 00:35:37,484 Speaker 2: some of these guys have like golden locks and the 624 00:35:37,484 --> 00:35:39,884 Speaker 2: good looking guys, and they were afraid of decreasing their 625 00:35:39,924 --> 00:35:44,604 Speaker 2: marketability right when the helmets came in and and but 626 00:35:44,804 --> 00:35:47,084 Speaker 2: in football, you already don't really see the guy's face, right, 627 00:35:47,124 --> 00:35:49,764 Speaker 2: they already have have a helmet on, and like it 628 00:35:49,844 --> 00:35:51,524 Speaker 2: just seems kind of weird that, Like, I mean, so 629 00:35:51,604 --> 00:35:57,124 Speaker 2: obviously from the league's perspective, why is there no mandate? 630 00:35:57,204 --> 00:36:01,564 Speaker 2: I mean, because the NFL is incredibly resilient and popular, 631 00:36:03,324 --> 00:36:05,324 Speaker 2: you know. But like the part of what's happened to 632 00:36:05,404 --> 00:36:08,084 Speaker 2: is I think kind of football had gotten more like 633 00:36:09,524 --> 00:36:11,844 Speaker 2: kind of you know, there were risks that liberals were 634 00:36:11,844 --> 00:36:13,844 Speaker 2: worried about concussions in the NFL, and that kind of 635 00:36:13,924 --> 00:36:19,324 Speaker 2: like died down a little bit. I think because football 636 00:36:19,364 --> 00:36:22,564 Speaker 2: occupies this unique place in American society where people like 637 00:36:22,564 --> 00:36:26,324 Speaker 2: it precisely because it's violent, and precisely because like it's 638 00:36:26,364 --> 00:36:30,244 Speaker 2: this proxy for kind of like risk taking. But yeah, 639 00:36:30,324 --> 00:36:30,964 Speaker 2: don't I don't know. 640 00:36:31,924 --> 00:36:34,844 Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, we'll see what happens. But I hope that 641 00:36:35,404 --> 00:36:37,284 Speaker 1: I hope that the tides are shifting and that we 642 00:36:37,364 --> 00:36:42,364 Speaker 1: will see change in the coming years. By the way, Nate, 643 00:36:42,804 --> 00:36:45,764 Speaker 1: while you and I were talking, Trump said that he 644 00:36:45,884 --> 00:36:49,644 Speaker 1: was going to be nominating medmet Oz to oversee Medicare 645 00:36:49,684 --> 00:36:53,484 Speaker 1: and Medicaid, who will be working closely with RFK juniors. 646 00:36:53,484 --> 00:36:57,284 Speaker 1: And we have this dystopian RFK and doctor OZ combination. 647 00:36:57,684 --> 00:36:59,724 Speaker 2: I don't know. I feel not available for anything. 648 00:37:00,764 --> 00:37:04,164 Speaker 1: Yeah to me, wow, like I this is not a 649 00:37:04,204 --> 00:37:05,844 Speaker 1: reality that I could have predicted. 650 00:37:07,484 --> 00:37:09,764 Speaker 2: I mean, it kind of is pretty I mean, watched 651 00:37:09,764 --> 00:37:10,284 Speaker 2: a lot of TV. 652 00:37:13,804 --> 00:37:17,444 Speaker 1: That's I guess that's true. I guess that's true. Let's 653 00:37:17,444 --> 00:37:20,804 Speaker 1: see what happens next week. But these uh, these picks 654 00:37:20,844 --> 00:37:26,484 Speaker 1: are getting more and more absurd, and the qualification levels, yes, 655 00:37:26,564 --> 00:37:29,284 Speaker 1: being on TV seems to actually be a very high qualification. 656 00:37:30,244 --> 00:37:33,684 Speaker 2: Do you remember the ad that Mimute OZ runs about 657 00:37:33,684 --> 00:37:35,164 Speaker 2: complaining about the price of Crude Tae. 658 00:37:37,924 --> 00:37:44,804 Speaker 1: Yes in the grocery store completely. I do remember that ad, 659 00:37:44,844 --> 00:37:48,484 Speaker 1: and I think we should all start rewatching it, rerunning 660 00:37:48,484 --> 00:37:51,884 Speaker 1: it to try to get people to to understand what's 661 00:37:51,924 --> 00:37:56,084 Speaker 1: happening that cruditay Ad Wow, what it Well? We we 662 00:37:56,124 --> 00:37:59,004 Speaker 1: started with the cabinet, let's end on this absurdist note, 663 00:37:59,244 --> 00:38:01,044 Speaker 1: and now all I can think about are crud de 664 00:38:01,084 --> 00:38:14,644 Speaker 1: te and doctor us. Let us know what you think 665 00:38:14,684 --> 00:38:18,004 Speaker 1: of the show. Reach out to us at Risky Business 666 00:38:18,044 --> 00:38:22,924 Speaker 1: at pushkin dot FM. Risky Business is hosted by me 667 00:38:23,124 --> 00:38:24,564 Speaker 1: Maria Kondakova. 668 00:38:24,364 --> 00:38:25,684 Speaker 2: And byb Nate Silver. 669 00:38:26,364 --> 00:38:29,924 Speaker 1: The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. 670 00:38:30,444 --> 00:38:34,004 Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Isabel Carner. Our associate producer 671 00:38:34,044 --> 00:38:37,604 Speaker 1: is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. 672 00:38:38,204 --> 00:38:40,324 Speaker 2: If you like the show, please rate and review us 673 00:38:40,364 --> 00:38:42,324 Speaker 2: so all the people can find us too. And if 674 00:38:42,364 --> 00:38:44,604 Speaker 2: you want to listen to an AD free version, sign 675 00:38:44,724 --> 00:38:47,404 Speaker 2: up for Pushkin Plus for six, ten and nine a month. 676 00:38:47,444 --> 00:38:50,284 Speaker 2: You would access to AD free listening. Thanks for tuning in.