WEBVTT - Wal-Mart Is Killing Small-Town America More Than Amazon, DeLong Says 0:00:09.720 --> 0:00:12.880 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene with 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:16.520 David Gura. Daily we bring you insight from the best 0:00:16.560 --> 0:00:22.279 of economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance 0:00:22.320 --> 0:00:27.000 on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and of course 0:00:27.320 --> 0:00:33.960 on the Bloomberg Good Morning are you. When David Gurr 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:36.040 and Tom came is to grow off off. We are 0:00:36.120 --> 0:00:38.440 honored to have near a change with us from London. 0:00:38.520 --> 0:00:40.640 We'll get to her, you know moment. Thrilled to have 0:00:40.720 --> 0:00:43.440 name a church with us, to uh distill some of 0:00:43.479 --> 0:00:46.720 the debates. Wonderful to have you and of course it 0:00:46.800 --> 0:00:49.519 was really something to see Prime Minister Mainnaire speaking on 0:00:49.560 --> 0:00:52.280 the Queen Elizabeth the second. I guess that's what you 0:00:52.400 --> 0:00:56.280 call that ginormous aircraft carrier. It's Portsmith. Am I pronouncing 0:00:56.320 --> 0:01:00.800 it right? Pronouncing you absolutely on pronouncing right, Tom. And 0:01:00.880 --> 0:01:03.040 over here in the UK, I mean, focus is turning 0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:05.759 to these position papers that the UK government is putting 0:01:05.800 --> 0:01:08.200 forward in terms of what it wants from Breggsit. Of course, 0:01:08.240 --> 0:01:10.360 what it wants and what it gets two very different things. 0:01:10.640 --> 0:01:14.200 I know that because I read my Patrick O'Brien long 0:01:14.240 --> 0:01:17.160 time ago he is my most important guest of the 0:01:17.200 --> 0:01:20.479 morning in the news. Slow has been extraordinary. Greg Valier 0:01:21.200 --> 0:01:24.679 joined us earlier, I should say from Europe. Mr Valier 0:01:24.760 --> 0:01:29.640 looks for resignations before Thanksgiving, including General Kelly greg Valier 0:01:29.800 --> 0:01:34.840 looking for the President to possibly pall undert Mike Allen 0:01:35.000 --> 0:01:39.360 and axios on Gary Cohnes standing behind the President in 0:01:39.400 --> 0:01:43.840 that marble Atrium yesterday quote we're told Cone was somewhere 0:01:44.000 --> 0:01:48.240 between appaulled in furious. He is not appalled in furious. 0:01:48.720 --> 0:01:51.080 When you grow up in Pattison, New Jersey, you've seen 0:01:51.080 --> 0:01:54.800 it all. Bill Pascal joins us. He is the ninth 0:01:55.960 --> 0:01:59.480 Congressional District congressman. But that's not accurate. There's been a 0:01:59.520 --> 0:02:03.080 redisc green in that it was at your grandparents that 0:02:03.200 --> 0:02:06.600 came through Ellis Island. That is correct. It's a spiritual place. 0:02:06.880 --> 0:02:11.839 My my, my grandparents eight generations back, came in handcuffs 0:02:11.840 --> 0:02:15.760 from a place called Scotland. This was a few years ago. 0:02:16.680 --> 0:02:19.880 The synthesis that you have is original here because let 0:02:19.919 --> 0:02:23.800 us explain to our global audience that Patterson, New Jersey 0:02:24.320 --> 0:02:29.520 is everything white supremacists and nationals are afraid of. Why 0:02:29.600 --> 0:02:33.200 should they not be afraid of the ethnic mix of 0:02:33.280 --> 0:02:37.400 the ninth Congressional District because I believe that this is 0:02:37.440 --> 0:02:40.800 the very soul of America. Each group has had a 0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:43.800 difficult time, as I've said before, to get into the 0:02:43.880 --> 0:02:48.760 dining room table. Uh, and difficulties are one thing, but 0:02:48.840 --> 0:02:50.840 they've always been able to reach it. I don't care 0:02:50.880 --> 0:02:54.239 what the group is. I think this is important. I'm 0:02:54.240 --> 0:02:57.360 When I was mayor of Patterson a few moons ago, 0:02:58.400 --> 0:03:01.200 I enjoyed getting up a morning and not only thinking 0:03:01.240 --> 0:03:04.120 about the agenda for the day, but I thought about 0:03:04.200 --> 0:03:06.280 how am I going to get people to work with 0:03:06.360 --> 0:03:10.880 each other with sixty two different ethnic groups and major problems. 0:03:10.880 --> 0:03:13.880 And city mayors will tell you this problems within those 0:03:13.919 --> 0:03:17.920 groups because there are diversity within each group. This is 0:03:17.960 --> 0:03:20.760 what makes a man. You can't stomp this. You can't 0:03:20.800 --> 0:03:23.320 put up a wall to stop it. You can't put 0:03:23.360 --> 0:03:26.400 a a weapon out in front of you to stomp it. 0:03:26.680 --> 0:03:30.320 This is America. I put out a photo of nineteen 0:03:30.400 --> 0:03:33.480 twenties Ku Klux Klan and thank you Joshua Rothman of 0:03:33.600 --> 0:03:37.160 University of Alabama for being with us on Monday. UH 0:03:37.200 --> 0:03:40.960 and true expert on this, someone with fact based knowledge 0:03:41.400 --> 0:03:46.000 of these these American hatreds intentions. And I put that 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:50.480 photo out and it was about Italians. When did the 0:03:50.520 --> 0:03:53.920 Italians not become the hated ones? When we got someone 0:03:53.960 --> 0:03:56.280 else to hate? And that's the way it works, Tom, 0:03:56.320 --> 0:03:59.200 And that's the way it works. And now I get 0:03:59.240 --> 0:04:02.320 after my attack you because I'm very very deep involved 0:04:02.360 --> 0:04:05.800 in Italian history and the Italian immigrants that came to 0:04:05.840 --> 0:04:08.839 this country. And I tell the Italians, you know, you're 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:12.520 turning your nose sometimes at certain people. Do you remember 0:04:12.560 --> 0:04:15.720 what happened when we first got here. Do you know 0:04:15.760 --> 0:04:18.440 what happened to your grandparents, your uncle's and your aunts, 0:04:18.720 --> 0:04:21.640 how they were turned away they weren't good enough. We 0:04:21.800 --> 0:04:25.479 can't accept that to anybody. Everybody's welcome. They come in 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:29.480 here in an orderly, lawful fashion, we should greet them. 0:04:29.520 --> 0:04:32.840 This is what the basis, the nucleus of the nation is. 0:04:33.200 --> 0:04:36.359 If you're joining us now worldwide and across this nation. 0:04:36.760 --> 0:04:40.040 Bill Pastcrow with us. He is the ninth UH Congressional 0:04:40.080 --> 0:04:43.839 dist Congressman. And let me just cut it short. He 0:04:44.000 --> 0:04:46.800 is the congressman from Patterson, New Jersey. Let me bring 0:04:46.800 --> 0:04:52.040 a nera in London nearra Tom and Congressman Pascal, really 0:04:52.160 --> 0:04:53.960 honored to speak to you. I just to let you 0:04:54.000 --> 0:04:58.479 know where I'm coming from as we're talking about immigration here. 0:04:58.520 --> 0:05:00.760 I did come to the UK back in ninety two, 0:05:00.800 --> 0:05:04.159 not just as an immigrant, but a refugee from Sarajevo 0:05:04.240 --> 0:05:08.000 in Bosnia. So I'm very familiar with, um you know, 0:05:08.040 --> 0:05:10.479 that that side of things. But also I spent a 0:05:10.560 --> 0:05:15.280 year actually in Virginia after school and before starting university, 0:05:15.360 --> 0:05:18.640 at a university there, so I'm somewhat familiar with how 0:05:18.680 --> 0:05:22.320 things felt in that state. I do remember well in 0:05:22.360 --> 0:05:26.160 the canteen of the university at the time that even 0:05:26.480 --> 0:05:29.799 though there was never sort of any sense of threat 0:05:30.040 --> 0:05:34.200 in terms of um you know, the sort of racial integration, 0:05:34.400 --> 0:05:37.920 the African Americans would sit separately in the canteen. Now, 0:05:37.960 --> 0:05:41.760 obviously the district where you are very different to that. 0:05:41.839 --> 0:05:45.040 But we are talking here about Charlottesville in a state 0:05:45.120 --> 0:05:48.560 like Virginia, how easy is it going to be to 0:05:48.760 --> 0:05:53.320 actually reverse what we've seen over there? And it was 0:05:53.360 --> 0:05:55.560 so elegantly said by Narra. Let me cut to the 0:05:55.560 --> 0:05:59.440 American directness, how do we make parts of this nation 0:06:00.040 --> 0:06:03.600 like New Jersey or we can't back off. We can't 0:06:03.640 --> 0:06:07.360 we must insist that this is a land of opportunity 0:06:07.400 --> 0:06:10.600 for all, and we're not saying that we open up 0:06:10.600 --> 0:06:13.800 our borders. And you know, eups having problems with immigrants 0:06:13.880 --> 0:06:17.440 coming in the refugees. We understand that, but we're not 0:06:17.440 --> 0:06:21.000 going to stop being who we are. And because of 0:06:21.920 --> 0:06:26.279 non facts, and we blame immigrants for loss of jobs 0:06:26.560 --> 0:06:31.680 that is absolutely not proven by anybody. Uh, we blame 0:06:31.800 --> 0:06:36.200 anybody for any of our problems, crime problems. You know what, 0:06:36.600 --> 0:06:38.800 when people were dying in the streets of Patterson in 0:06:38.920 --> 0:06:43.320 nineteen fifties and sixties on heroin, you know, those people 0:06:43.320 --> 0:06:46.800 don't know what they're doing anyway. Now that suburban kids 0:06:47.600 --> 0:06:50.680 are dying on opiates, it's a whole different story. Now 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:53.359 we got hope, We got programs to everybody. I support 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:56.040 those programs. I want to run point on those programs. 0:06:56.400 --> 0:07:00.479 We are all equal, period. I want to talk about 0:07:00.480 --> 0:07:04.279 Elaine Chow standing behind the President yesterday. Full disclosure, folks, 0:07:04.279 --> 0:07:07.120 Secretary Chow and I know each other fairly. Well, she's 0:07:07.160 --> 0:07:11.640 been very kind. Who I was watching You were watching 0:07:11.640 --> 0:07:13.800 her like I was watching her and you were watching 0:07:13.800 --> 0:07:15.840 her for a reason. Well, no, but she come on, 0:07:16.000 --> 0:07:19.120 she came off the boat. Let's from Taiwan. She grew 0:07:19.200 --> 0:07:22.920 up outside l A very basic, very simple. What do 0:07:22.960 --> 0:07:27.280 you need to see from the Republicans the public servants 0:07:27.320 --> 0:07:31.080 like Secretary Chow As Greg Villiers says, when do they 0:07:31.120 --> 0:07:35.160 start resigning? Is that what moderates need to see. Yeah, 0:07:35.200 --> 0:07:39.360 and your torn between loyalty to your president, which you 0:07:39.360 --> 0:07:43.200 should have, but there's a point beyond which the president goes. 0:07:43.520 --> 0:07:47.160 You got to make decisions for yourself. You gotta stand up, 0:07:47.440 --> 0:07:51.880 resign or speak out privately to him. If he continued 0:07:51.920 --> 0:07:54.000 to do this, I'm out of here. You're gonna get 0:07:54.040 --> 0:07:57.320 somebody else to take my place. He's got to understand 0:07:57.680 --> 0:08:02.040 that this is not his business. His his his work 0:08:02.160 --> 0:08:05.200 is being president of the United States. He never made 0:08:05.240 --> 0:08:09.920 that transition from his job beforehand to the presidency of 0:08:09.960 --> 0:08:12.680 the United States. He is, you know, he's almost like 0:08:12.760 --> 0:08:19.040 Cornelius Vanderbilt. Cornelius Vanderbilt said, very specifically, Uh, you know 0:08:19.120 --> 0:08:22.800 the law, I'm I have the power. We could go 0:08:22.880 --> 0:08:24.920 for hours with you this morning, correct, So we're gonna 0:08:25.000 --> 0:08:26.800 run out of time here. I'm so sorry for that. 0:08:27.080 --> 0:08:30.520 Where's the Barbara be Connable Barbara be Connable of Western 0:08:30.520 --> 0:08:34.960 New York sat Richard Nixon down and said, enough, we're 0:08:35.000 --> 0:08:37.000 just not to that stage yet. We're not and that 0:08:37.080 --> 0:08:40.439 we're not to that stage yet, and most Republicans are 0:08:40.520 --> 0:08:44.920 still afraid. On Sunday if I go to mass hopefully 0:08:44.920 --> 0:08:48.559 try to do that every week. You here are the 0:08:49.200 --> 0:08:52.560 folks saying, be not afraid. What are they afraid of? 0:08:53.040 --> 0:08:56.480 This is America. If he can't do it here, go 0:08:56.559 --> 0:09:01.000 to Russia, go to China, then why wouldn't you do that? Well, 0:09:01.080 --> 0:09:03.679 because you know you have a limited amount of freedom here, 0:09:04.000 --> 0:09:07.400 or because we can express ourselves. This is what makes 0:09:07.520 --> 0:09:09.960 us the greatest country in the world. And yet we 0:09:10.080 --> 0:09:14.200 diminish ourselves when we try to categorize and say no, 0:09:14.840 --> 0:09:18.079 these people can't be allowed. And I was very angry, 0:09:19.120 --> 0:09:23.240 uh when the President said there'll be no uh refugees 0:09:23.320 --> 0:09:27.400 from X amount of countries, no Muslims allowed. Are we 0:09:27.559 --> 0:09:31.800 kidding ourselves? That's that's something from the eighteenth century. We're 0:09:31.840 --> 0:09:35.199 living in the twenty one century. Now. Do we have 0:09:35.240 --> 0:09:37.560 any problems? Of course, we have problems, and they'll always 0:09:37.600 --> 0:09:40.439 be problems. We need to stand up to it. We're 0:09:40.480 --> 0:09:43.760 never gonna have a seamless system. Thank you so much. 0:09:43.800 --> 0:09:46.920 Bill Pescrow with us an important conversation after emotion that 0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:49.920 we saw yesterday, a particular thank you, and she will 0:09:49.920 --> 0:09:53.679 continue with this neighbor change in London, talking there about 0:09:53.679 --> 0:10:10.720 her first days in UH, the United Kingdom, march in London. 0:10:10.760 --> 0:10:13.440 I'm tom Keene uh Ian. Where am i am in 0:10:13.480 --> 0:10:15.839 New York? My had is spinning folks. After the last 0:10:15.840 --> 0:10:19.040 six seven days, We're gonna try to digress for a moment. 0:10:19.080 --> 0:10:22.320 We will return to UH the emotion and the debate 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:25.199 of what we're seeing in our political economics. But right now, 0:10:25.280 --> 0:10:30.440 someone that writes incredibly thoughtful notes synthesizing our macro view 0:10:30.600 --> 0:10:34.640 on investment, on finance and economic Sebastian Gali is at 0:10:34.640 --> 0:10:37.600 Deutsche Bank. Sebastian, you have an optimistic view on the 0:10:37.600 --> 0:10:41.520 American economy and you've just written a thoughtful piece on 0:10:41.600 --> 0:10:47.599 this overused, dreaded word innovation. What is innovation? Innovation is 0:10:47.679 --> 0:10:50.480 the ability to create new products. It's either because you're 0:10:50.480 --> 0:10:54.720 reacting to your competitors or simply because you are innovating yourself. 0:10:54.840 --> 0:10:57.320 And there are two types of innovations. One which is 0:10:57.400 --> 0:11:00.480 what we call breakthrough, which is very rare. Break them 0:11:00.520 --> 0:11:02.800 ald in a sense and the most of the innovation, though, 0:11:03.000 --> 0:11:06.040 is more incremental. So you change small stuff, you change 0:11:06.080 --> 0:11:08.760 the coffee cup, you change the way people behave a 0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:11.920 little bit, but you don't change them on the so 0:11:12.000 --> 0:11:15.040 near If I change my bow tie, that's incremental innovation. 0:11:18.000 --> 0:11:21.720 Sebastian Um this all as well, you arguing your piece 0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:24.360 depends on where we are in the cycle. Are American 0:11:24.440 --> 0:11:28.000 companies innovating enough given where we are in the business cycle? 0:11:28.600 --> 0:11:31.600 The answer is probably no. They It looks like the 0:11:31.640 --> 0:11:33.760 funding simply for people who actually take a lot of 0:11:33.840 --> 0:11:36.120 risk is not that available. So you have the Elon 0:11:36.200 --> 0:11:38.319 Musk of the world, which are a bit the exception 0:11:38.720 --> 0:11:41.200 in the system. It looks like the broad set of 0:11:41.240 --> 0:11:44.280 people who would take more risk and try to push 0:11:44.360 --> 0:11:48.600 new products which are completely new, are unfortunately not getting 0:11:48.640 --> 0:11:50.800 through and getting enough funding. At this point in time. 0:11:51.840 --> 0:11:55.560 The market is very risk of appetite fool it loves 0:11:55.600 --> 0:11:57.800 to take risk, but actually if you go down to 0:11:57.920 --> 0:12:01.360 private equities, it probably is actually far more risk averse 0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:03.760 than you show you at this point in time. Right, 0:12:03.800 --> 0:12:07.840 And how is this then feeding through to the productivity issue? Well, 0:12:07.920 --> 0:12:09.920 you have two things. You have to look at. The 0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:13.760 people who actually provide productivity through innovations are mature sectors. 0:12:13.800 --> 0:12:16.560 You can think of a company like heind sketch Up, 0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:19.760 for example, without knowing exactly what they do, um they 0:12:19.800 --> 0:12:22.680 would basically try to innovate, try to reduce their costs, 0:12:22.679 --> 0:12:26.240 and try to create demand for new products that they do, 0:12:26.360 --> 0:12:30.400 and that ends up basically feeding productivity. Then you have 0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:33.920 companies which are high added value products that they basically 0:12:34.520 --> 0:12:37.880 create a new Apple or a new iPhone, which is 0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:40.280 not necessarily a breakthrough in any way shape or form 0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:43.400 might be, but in terms of productivity, is not necessarily 0:12:43.400 --> 0:12:46.240 helping you a lot because they want to gain market share, 0:12:46.360 --> 0:12:50.280 gain more demand rather than use their costs. The President 0:12:50.320 --> 0:12:52.360 with his tweet this morning on the innovation and the 0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:56.640 Amazon makes the presidents sure it was wildly non economic, 0:12:56.760 --> 0:13:01.480 I would say in its In its you explain to 0:13:01.559 --> 0:13:05.120 people that agree with the President that Amazon has stolen 0:13:05.240 --> 0:13:09.280 jobs from towns cities. In the Borders bookstore at the 0:13:09.280 --> 0:13:12.600 corner of Park Avenue in fifty seven Street, it has 0:13:12.800 --> 0:13:14.840 it has to produce basically the amount of bookstores. And 0:13:14.840 --> 0:13:17.640 then Amazon has opened its own bookstore somewhere in New York, 0:13:17.720 --> 0:13:19.880 so it is also opening its own bookstores because it's 0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:23.600 that good. Jeff, I know, Jeff listens, they gotta make 0:13:23.600 --> 0:13:27.319 a better bookstore. Continue the I have in the view 0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:31.040 on it whatever, but they are it's it's creative destruction. 0:13:31.080 --> 0:13:32.720 If you if you live in New Jersey, you can 0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:35.520 see that you're living in X factories, whether it's lipped 0:13:35.559 --> 0:13:39.480 and tea, whether it's in the coffee producers of the time. 0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:41.920 And we change the adapt and they they're part of 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:44.320 that process of adaptation. The question is whether it goes 0:13:44.360 --> 0:13:46.520 too slowly or too fast, and the should answer it 0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:49.120 doesn't go very fast whatsoever? Yeah, I would I would 0:13:49.280 --> 0:13:54.400 editorialize here that we've innovated the coffee some days at 0:13:54.400 --> 0:13:58.079 Bloomberg Surveillance down to a thin soup. Oh, I'm very 0:13:58.120 --> 0:14:01.120 innovative when it when it comes to coffee, certainly. But 0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:04.880 just a brief question to you, Sebastian. On FX, we've 0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:06.959 got the euro a little weaker on a report that 0:14:07.080 --> 0:14:10.600 Mario Draggy actually won't deliver a fresh policy message at 0:14:10.679 --> 0:14:14.439 Jackson Hole. Why is Draggy not pushing back on the 0:14:14.480 --> 0:14:17.760 stronger euro because we're not in a crisis situation than 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:19.840 the euro Zone. Things are going pretty darn well, now, 0:14:19.920 --> 0:14:21.920 if you look at it from the Italian point of view, 0:14:22.080 --> 0:14:24.240 or it used to be in the Spanish point of view, 0:14:24.280 --> 0:14:25.840 of a Greek point of view, then that you might 0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:29.680 be a bit more concerned. But the demand internally in 0:14:29.680 --> 0:14:32.640 in the Arizone is is going pretty well. It's not 0:14:32.760 --> 0:14:35.720 a crisis situation. Therefore, they're not targeting the currency. They 0:14:35.840 --> 0:14:38.720 used to target the currency, they did it deliberately. It's 0:14:38.720 --> 0:14:41.600 no longer the case. Do you agree with your colleague 0:14:41.640 --> 0:14:46.080 dominic constom of a larger real growth in America? I 0:14:46.120 --> 0:14:47.960 think it's a structial thing. I mean in the sense 0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:51.600 that real interest rates are not relatively high, but inflation 0:14:51.720 --> 0:14:55.520 remains subduced potential growth, and the actual growth is decent enough. 0:14:56.040 --> 0:14:57.800 And one of the reasons is there are a structural 0:14:57.800 --> 0:15:00.480 reason why the CPI is going to stay sticky and 0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:02.640 on the low side for a significant amount of signed 0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:04.720 and one of it is because labor market is say, 0:15:04.720 --> 0:15:07.640 it's a global one. Sebastian Golly, thank you so much. 0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:10.200 Thank you for for being with us for a lengthy 0:15:10.240 --> 0:15:12.680 time today. Within all the news slow he is with 0:15:13.280 --> 0:15:27.840 that Deutsche Bank. This is joy. We're gonna speak in 0:15:27.880 --> 0:15:31.440 our next section about all that's going on with our president, 0:15:31.840 --> 0:15:36.200 the emotions of this nation. But now we celebrate his book, 0:15:36.320 --> 0:15:40.120 and it will always be his book. Michael Baron joins us, 0:15:40.160 --> 0:15:43.480 joining us on our phone line. Michael, I've already ordered 0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:47.200 the two thousand and eighty pages for myself and my 0:15:47.320 --> 0:15:52.640 colleague David Gura. I'm fascinated by the piecing together of 0:15:52.720 --> 0:15:56.760 your new almanac of American Politics. What was the Trump 0:15:56.840 --> 0:16:01.880 effect on writing this edition of your Street? Well, it 0:16:03.320 --> 0:16:08.840 obviously it means that you're writing something that you gotta thinks. 0:16:09.160 --> 0:16:12.040 You're writing something that's rather different from what you expected 0:16:12.080 --> 0:16:16.160 to be writing about, because I, like most of the people, 0:16:16.240 --> 0:16:19.240 did not think Donald Trump would be elected president. I 0:16:19.240 --> 0:16:22.520 mean I I think he had towards the end of 0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:24.720 the campaign that he had about one on a three 0:16:24.800 --> 0:16:28.760 chance of winning. That's similar to what needs silver strife. 0:16:28.800 --> 0:16:35.280 There a website calculated um and what the result teaches 0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:39.720 this is that one out of three actually happens one 0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:43.440 out of three times. This was the one out of 0:16:43.480 --> 0:16:46.400 the one out of three and and so forth. So 0:16:46.480 --> 0:16:50.160 it would be on something I think, you know, historical perspective, 0:16:50.920 --> 0:16:54.720 the number of votes that changed the percentage of the electorate, 0:16:54.800 --> 0:17:00.440 that change was actually not huge. Uh. If you take 0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:04.400 a look at comparing say the nineteen seventy two election 0:17:04.560 --> 0:17:07.520 was seventy six or in the nineteen seventy six with 0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:14.160 nine eight n nine, A lot more votes shifted between 0:17:14.200 --> 0:17:18.760 those two elections within those four years than between two thousands, 0:17:19.480 --> 0:17:23.440 thousand and sixteen. You know, your pieces together, the Richard Cohen, 0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:27.840 James Barne, and of course the legendary Charlie Cook. What 0:17:28.160 --> 0:17:31.240 is the vignette out of the two thousand eighty pages, 0:17:31.560 --> 0:17:35.280 what is the one essay or article that really stuck 0:17:35.320 --> 0:17:39.640 out to Michael Barrowne. Well, then the article and sort 0:17:39.640 --> 0:17:42.679 of struck out to me was when that I wrote 0:17:42.720 --> 0:17:46.560 and in which I, as I recall, I started off, 0:17:47.440 --> 0:17:51.520 UM with the fact that Donald Trump was a person 0:17:52.280 --> 0:17:55.320 that most people have told was not a political person 0:17:55.359 --> 0:17:59.080 before he stepped down that escalator in June fifteen, two 0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:05.479 years ago. UM. Donald Trump was present at the UM 0:18:05.840 --> 0:18:11.280 ceremony dedicating the various non Narrows Bridge in November nineteen 0:18:11.359 --> 0:18:15.480 sixty four. UM. And that's you know, a small crowd 0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:20.800 of dignitaries, UM people led by mar Wagner, by Governor Rockefeller, 0:18:20.920 --> 0:18:26.320 by the Robert Moses, the legendary builder of New York 0:18:27.080 --> 0:18:31.200 bridges and parks and so forth. Um, he was eighteen 0:18:31.280 --> 0:18:36.639 years old. He was a student for him. Um what 0:18:36.880 --> 0:18:39.800 was he doing in that crowd? And the answer, obviously 0:18:39.960 --> 0:18:43.520 is that his father, who had made many political connections, 0:18:43.560 --> 0:18:46.679 particularly the Brooklyn Democratic machine, had gotten him a ticket. 0:18:47.080 --> 0:18:50.440 And there he is watching the dedication of the largest 0:18:50.480 --> 0:18:53.080 bridge in the world and the greatest city in the world, 0:18:53.119 --> 0:18:56.200 in the greatest country in the world. You know you're 0:18:56.200 --> 0:18:59.879 getting the picture. He's part taking of this event in 0:19:00.840 --> 0:19:05.240 uh eat and he notes if he notices later that 0:19:05.400 --> 0:19:08.000 the name of the British designer wasn't mentioned, And he 0:19:08.119 --> 0:19:11.760 told interviewers when I built something, they're going to mention 0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:15.720 my name. Interesting that. Now let's do this, Michael. Let's 0:19:16.040 --> 0:19:18.200 come back and we want to talk to you near 0:19:18.240 --> 0:19:21.080 a change and I want to really dive into your 0:19:21.160 --> 0:19:24.240 thoughts as you're right for the Washington Examiner about what 0:19:24.280 --> 0:19:27.080 we've seen since Charlotte's Ville. We are thrilled to bring 0:19:27.119 --> 0:19:30.600 you this warning Michael Baron, folks, I can't say enough 0:19:30.840 --> 0:19:36.040 about the acquisition. It's expensive price. Warning. Barron's gotta you know, 0:19:36.400 --> 0:19:39.920 pay for the Trump Tower. Cocktails. It's eighty dollars. It's 0:19:39.920 --> 0:19:43.400 the best eighty dollars you will spend on the Almanac 0:19:43.560 --> 0:19:48.439 of American Politics two thousand eighteen near a church in London. 0:19:48.760 --> 0:19:50.639 I'm Tom Keaton, New York, and we are honored to 0:19:50.640 --> 0:19:54.960 have with us Michael Barone. In two he put out 0:19:54.960 --> 0:19:58.040 a small book that I guess most people ignored. You 0:19:58.080 --> 0:20:00.200 should see what it goes for on e Bay right now. 0:20:00.200 --> 0:20:02.880 It's like a treasured It's I got a Game of Thrones, 0:20:02.960 --> 0:20:05.280 one of those books in the Citadel. He's out with 0:20:05.320 --> 0:20:08.399 his American Almanac of American Politics. Look for that in 0:20:08.440 --> 0:20:12.200 the next few days. I've already bought my copy. Michael 0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:17.240 bronachros Riding in the Washington Examiner. Michael, Republicans now and 0:20:17.359 --> 0:20:21.000 modern Republicans have to figure out what to do with 0:20:21.200 --> 0:20:26.720 their president with all of your district by district experience. 0:20:27.160 --> 0:20:33.359 For example, how will the Bucks County, Pennsylvania Republican eighth district, 0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:37.720 How will that congressman respond? I mean, just to give 0:20:38.000 --> 0:20:40.960 an example of one Mr Phizpadrick down there, what a 0:20:41.040 --> 0:20:47.000 mainline Republicans do well? The uh the eighth Congressional district, 0:20:47.000 --> 0:20:51.520 which is roughly coincident with Bucks County, Pennsylvania, suburban county. 0:20:51.800 --> 0:20:57.160 What will the Republican in lower Box down by Bristol, 0:20:57.320 --> 0:21:01.240 the Delaware where were the industrial area? Uh, he will 0:21:01.359 --> 0:21:03.840 have some good things to say about Donald Trump, and 0:21:03.880 --> 0:21:06.640 he will emphasize that he positive things that he thinks 0:21:06.760 --> 0:21:11.000 Mr Trump has done. When he gets into upper Bucks County, 0:21:11.080 --> 0:21:14.320 the kind of leafier area with a much higher percentage 0:21:14.320 --> 0:21:18.359 of college graduates and hiring income people, he will lament 0:21:18.960 --> 0:21:23.159 Mr Trump's tendency to tweet off the top of his 0:21:23.240 --> 0:21:28.520 head and some of the mistakes that the President Trump 0:21:28.560 --> 0:21:31.040 has made or some of the things that may not 0:21:31.119 --> 0:21:33.200 be mistakes from his point of view, but they are 0:21:33.320 --> 0:21:38.360 unpopular among the college educated group. That's a classic district 0:21:38.440 --> 0:21:44.560 that's divided between um non college graduate whitees lower Bucks 0:21:44.600 --> 0:21:48.359 who moved towards Donald Trump is compared with two thousand 0:21:48.440 --> 0:21:53.560 twelve and other recent elections in between college grad voters 0:21:53.680 --> 0:21:57.159 who who moved away from Donald Trump. And that's a 0:21:57.240 --> 0:21:59.359 kind of Yeah, that's a kind of vignette, folks, you 0:21:59.359 --> 0:22:02.639 can get in Rowan's American Almanac of American Politics. Let 0:22:02.640 --> 0:22:06.400 me bringing my colleague in London with Michael Barron Nera. 0:22:07.040 --> 0:22:10.120 Thank you, Tom, Michael Burrone. Great to speak to you. So, 0:22:10.480 --> 0:22:13.440 while we've been talking through all the media about ceo 0:22:13.640 --> 0:22:17.160 is abandoning the president all morning, I've been thinking to myself, 0:22:17.359 --> 0:22:19.520 what does Gary Cone make of all this? And as 0:22:19.520 --> 0:22:22.200 if it read my mind, the New York Times headline 0:22:22.320 --> 0:22:25.520 Gary Cone is said to be deeply upset by the 0:22:25.640 --> 0:22:29.720 last few days. What will be more damaging to this 0:22:29.800 --> 0:22:35.119 administration in your view? More abandonment from CEOs of the 0:22:35.280 --> 0:22:42.040 businessman president or abandonment by his closest political aids. Uh well, 0:22:42.080 --> 0:22:45.080 I think the lad it would be more dangerous or 0:22:45.440 --> 0:22:49.480 problematic for him. You know, we've had a number of 0:22:49.520 --> 0:22:54.960 accounts from let's conservatives called mainstream media of people leaving 0:22:55.000 --> 0:22:58.840 with Trump administration. Some of those accounts have been accurate, 0:23:00.119 --> 0:23:04.240 is have not. So I'm old enough to remember lots 0:23:04.240 --> 0:23:07.600 of administrations where we were told somebody was leaving and 0:23:07.760 --> 0:23:11.320 they ended up not doing so. As for the CEOs 0:23:11.359 --> 0:23:16.080 of companies, um, I kind of sniff a certain amount 0:23:16.080 --> 0:23:20.000 of political correctness. They're similar to what we saw from 0:23:20.040 --> 0:23:24.440 the CEO of public Google when he fired and when 0:23:24.600 --> 0:23:28.159 after proclaiming that Google believes in free speech and open 0:23:28.200 --> 0:23:31.960 airing of discussion from its employees, then fired an employee 0:23:31.960 --> 0:23:37.040 who said something that the CEO and uh, certain people 0:23:37.280 --> 0:23:40.359 within the corporation. It said, you know, some of the 0:23:40.640 --> 0:23:44.040 upset some of the employees. He mischaracterized what they said. 0:23:45.000 --> 0:23:47.600 I don't think it's right. As American voters are concerned 0:23:47.680 --> 0:23:52.680 that most of them think that CEOs really provide the 0:23:52.760 --> 0:23:56.080 kind of guidance they necessarily want. You can get a 0:23:56.119 --> 0:23:58.480 certain number of voters to think a lot of ceo 0:23:58.640 --> 0:24:03.080 should be in jail. Um, they don't usually specify what 0:24:03.320 --> 0:24:07.240 offense they think they should be in jail from there. Rather, uh, 0:24:07.280 --> 0:24:11.840 you know, you hear politicians of both parties. No bankers 0:24:11.920 --> 0:24:14.159 went to jail as a result of the two thousand 0:24:14.200 --> 0:24:17.600 and eight so forth. So I don't think that's as 0:24:17.680 --> 0:24:23.760 damaging to Mr Trump as the as as major departures 0:24:23.760 --> 0:24:27.000 in his administration might be. Right, Well, you you talked 0:24:27.000 --> 0:24:30.480 about political correctness. I mean, everybody is asking why the 0:24:30.520 --> 0:24:34.400 President has responded the way he has to what happened 0:24:34.520 --> 0:24:37.280 in Charlottesville. We had a great piece on the Bloomberg 0:24:37.680 --> 0:24:40.960 by one of our columnists, Timothy L. O'Brien, who said, 0:24:40.960 --> 0:24:45.200 it's not about politics, it's his long history of race baiting. 0:24:45.280 --> 0:24:49.720 Should we in fact be surprised by any of this, well, 0:24:51.359 --> 0:24:53.480 you know, there's always seen to be surprised by what 0:24:53.600 --> 0:24:58.560 Donald Trump does. I think to characterize what he what 0:24:58.680 --> 0:25:04.280 he said is race baiting, UH is somewhat unfair. You know, 0:25:04.320 --> 0:25:08.639