1 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene with 2 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: David Gura. Daily we bring you insight from the best 3 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:22,279 Speaker 1: of economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance 4 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and of course 5 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg Good Morning are you. When David Gurr 6 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 1: and Tom came is to grow off off. We are 7 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 1: honored to have near a change with us from London. 8 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:40,640 Speaker 1: We'll get to her, you know moment. Thrilled to have 9 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:43,440 Speaker 1: name a church with us, to uh distill some of 10 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 1: the debates. Wonderful to have you and of course it 11 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:49,519 Speaker 1: was really something to see Prime Minister Mainnaire speaking on 12 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:52,280 Speaker 1: the Queen Elizabeth the second. I guess that's what you 13 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 1: call that ginormous aircraft carrier. It's Portsmith. Am I pronouncing 14 00:00:56,320 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: it right? Pronouncing you absolutely on pronouncing right, Tom. And 15 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 1: over here in the UK, I mean, focus is turning 16 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:05,759 Speaker 1: to these position papers that the UK government is putting 17 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:08,200 Speaker 1: forward in terms of what it wants from Breggsit. Of course, 18 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 1: what it wants and what it gets two very different things. 19 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 1: I know that because I read my Patrick O'Brien long 20 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 1: time ago he is my most important guest of the 21 00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:20,479 Speaker 1: morning in the news. Slow has been extraordinary. Greg Valier 22 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:24,679 Speaker 1: joined us earlier, I should say from Europe. Mr Valier 23 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 1: looks for resignations before Thanksgiving, including General Kelly greg Valier 24 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 1: looking for the President to possibly pall undert Mike Allen 25 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 1: and axios on Gary Cohnes standing behind the President in 26 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 1: that marble Atrium yesterday quote we're told Cone was somewhere 27 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 1: between appaulled in furious. He is not appalled in furious. 28 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:51,080 Speaker 1: When you grow up in Pattison, New Jersey, you've seen 29 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 1: it all. Bill Pascal joins us. He is the ninth 30 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 1: Congressional District congressman. But that's not accurate. There's been a 31 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 1: redisc green in that it was at your grandparents that 32 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 1: came through Ellis Island. That is correct. It's a spiritual place. 33 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:11,839 Speaker 1: My my, my grandparents eight generations back, came in handcuffs 34 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 1: from a place called Scotland. This was a few years ago. 35 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 1: The synthesis that you have is original here because let 36 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:23,800 Speaker 1: us explain to our global audience that Patterson, New Jersey 37 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 1: is everything white supremacists and nationals are afraid of. Why 38 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 1: should they not be afraid of the ethnic mix of 39 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:37,400 Speaker 1: the ninth Congressional District because I believe that this is 40 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:40,800 Speaker 1: the very soul of America. Each group has had a 41 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 1: difficult time, as I've said before, to get into the 42 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:48,760 Speaker 1: dining room table. Uh, and difficulties are one thing, but 43 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 1: they've always been able to reach it. I don't care 44 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:54,239 Speaker 1: what the group is. I think this is important. I'm 45 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 1: When I was mayor of Patterson a few moons ago, 46 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 1: I enjoyed getting up a morning and not only thinking 47 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:04,120 Speaker 1: about the agenda for the day, but I thought about 48 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: how am I going to get people to work with 49 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 1: each other with sixty two different ethnic groups and major problems. 50 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 1: And city mayors will tell you this problems within those 51 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:17,920 Speaker 1: groups because there are diversity within each group. This is 52 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 1: what makes a man. You can't stomp this. You can't 53 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:23,320 Speaker 1: put up a wall to stop it. You can't put 54 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 1: a a weapon out in front of you to stomp it. 55 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 1: This is America. I put out a photo of nineteen 56 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 1: twenties Ku Klux Klan and thank you Joshua Rothman of 57 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 1: University of Alabama for being with us on Monday. UH 58 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:40,960 Speaker 1: and true expert on this, someone with fact based knowledge 59 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 1: of these these American hatreds intentions. And I put that 60 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 1: photo out and it was about Italians. When did the 61 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 1: Italians not become the hated ones? When we got someone 62 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 1: else to hate? And that's the way it works, Tom, 63 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 1: And that's the way it works. And now I get 64 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:02,320 Speaker 1: after my attack you because I'm very very deep involved 65 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 1: in Italian history and the Italian immigrants that came to 66 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:08,839 Speaker 1: this country. And I tell the Italians, you know, you're 67 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:12,520 Speaker 1: turning your nose sometimes at certain people. Do you remember 68 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:15,720 Speaker 1: what happened when we first got here. Do you know 69 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 1: what happened to your grandparents, your uncle's and your aunts, 70 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 1: how they were turned away they weren't good enough. We 71 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:25,479 Speaker 1: can't accept that to anybody. Everybody's welcome. They come in 72 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:29,480 Speaker 1: here in an orderly, lawful fashion, we should greet them. 73 00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:32,840 Speaker 1: This is what the basis, the nucleus of the nation is. 74 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:36,359 Speaker 1: If you're joining us now worldwide and across this nation. 75 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:40,040 Speaker 1: Bill Pastcrow with us. He is the ninth UH Congressional 76 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 1: dist Congressman. And let me just cut it short. He 77 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,800 Speaker 1: is the congressman from Patterson, New Jersey. Let me bring 78 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:52,040 Speaker 1: a nera in London nearra Tom and Congressman Pascal, really 79 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 1: honored to speak to you. I just to let you 80 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:58,479 Speaker 1: know where I'm coming from as we're talking about immigration here. 81 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 1: I did come to the UK back in ninety two, 82 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 1: not just as an immigrant, but a refugee from Sarajevo 83 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 1: in Bosnia. So I'm very familiar with, um you know, 84 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:10,479 Speaker 1: that that side of things. But also I spent a 85 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:15,280 Speaker 1: year actually in Virginia after school and before starting university, 86 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 1: at a university there, so I'm somewhat familiar with how 87 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 1: things felt in that state. I do remember well in 88 00:05:22,360 --> 00:05:26,160 Speaker 1: the canteen of the university at the time that even 89 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:29,799 Speaker 1: though there was never sort of any sense of threat 90 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 1: in terms of um you know, the sort of racial integration, 91 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:37,920 Speaker 1: the African Americans would sit separately in the canteen. Now, 92 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 1: obviously the district where you are very different to that. 93 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 1: But we are talking here about Charlottesville in a state 94 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 1: like Virginia, how easy is it going to be to 95 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 1: actually reverse what we've seen over there? And it was 96 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 1: so elegantly said by Narra. Let me cut to the 97 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 1: American directness, how do we make parts of this nation 98 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:03,600 Speaker 1: like New Jersey or we can't back off. We can't 99 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:07,360 Speaker 1: we must insist that this is a land of opportunity 100 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 1: for all, and we're not saying that we open up 101 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 1: our borders. And you know, eups having problems with immigrants 102 00:06:13,880 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 1: coming in the refugees. We understand that, but we're not 103 00:06:17,440 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 1: going to stop being who we are. And because of 104 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:26,279 Speaker 1: non facts, and we blame immigrants for loss of jobs 105 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 1: that is absolutely not proven by anybody. Uh, we blame 106 00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:36,200 Speaker 1: anybody for any of our problems, crime problems. You know what, 107 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 1: when people were dying in the streets of Patterson in 108 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 1: nineteen fifties and sixties on heroin, you know, those people 109 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 1: don't know what they're doing anyway. Now that suburban kids 110 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:50,680 Speaker 1: are dying on opiates, it's a whole different story. Now 111 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:53,359 Speaker 1: we got hope, We got programs to everybody. I support 112 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:56,040 Speaker 1: those programs. I want to run point on those programs. 113 00:06:56,400 --> 00:07:00,479 Speaker 1: We are all equal, period. I want to talk about 114 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:04,279 Speaker 1: Elaine Chow standing behind the President yesterday. Full disclosure, folks, 115 00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 1: Secretary Chow and I know each other fairly. Well, she's 116 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 1: been very kind. Who I was watching You were watching 117 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:13,800 Speaker 1: her like I was watching her and you were watching 118 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 1: her for a reason. Well, no, but she come on, 119 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:19,120 Speaker 1: she came off the boat. Let's from Taiwan. She grew 120 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 1: up outside l A very basic, very simple. What do 121 00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 1: you need to see from the Republicans the public servants 122 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 1: like Secretary Chow As Greg Villiers says, when do they 123 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 1: start resigning? Is that what moderates need to see. Yeah, 124 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 1: and your torn between loyalty to your president, which you 125 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 1: should have, but there's a point beyond which the president goes. 126 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 1: You got to make decisions for yourself. You gotta stand up, 127 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:51,880 Speaker 1: resign or speak out privately to him. If he continued 128 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 1: to do this, I'm out of here. You're gonna get 129 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 1: somebody else to take my place. He's got to understand 130 00:07:57,680 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 1: that this is not his business. His his his work 131 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 1: is being president of the United States. He never made 132 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 1: that transition from his job beforehand to the presidency of 133 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 1: the United States. He is, you know, he's almost like 134 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 1: Cornelius Vanderbilt. Cornelius Vanderbilt said, very specifically, Uh, you know 135 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:22,800 Speaker 1: the law, I'm I have the power. We could go 136 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 1: for hours with you this morning, correct, So we're gonna 137 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 1: run out of time here. I'm so sorry for that. 138 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:30,520 Speaker 1: Where's the Barbara be Connable Barbara be Connable of Western 139 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:34,960 Speaker 1: New York sat Richard Nixon down and said, enough, we're 140 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 1: just not to that stage yet. We're not and that 141 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:40,439 Speaker 1: we're not to that stage yet, and most Republicans are 142 00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:44,920 Speaker 1: still afraid. On Sunday if I go to mass hopefully 143 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:48,559 Speaker 1: try to do that every week. You here are the 144 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:52,560 Speaker 1: folks saying, be not afraid. What are they afraid of? 145 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:56,480 Speaker 1: This is America. If he can't do it here, go 146 00:08:56,559 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 1: to Russia, go to China, then why wouldn't you do that? Well, 147 00:09:01,080 --> 00:09:03,679 Speaker 1: because you know you have a limited amount of freedom here, 148 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 1: or because we can express ourselves. This is what makes 149 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:09,960 Speaker 1: us the greatest country in the world. And yet we 150 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:14,200 Speaker 1: diminish ourselves when we try to categorize and say no, 151 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:18,079 Speaker 1: these people can't be allowed. And I was very angry, 152 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:23,240 Speaker 1: uh when the President said there'll be no uh refugees 153 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 1: from X amount of countries, no Muslims allowed. Are we 154 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 1: kidding ourselves? That's that's something from the eighteenth century. We're 155 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:35,199 Speaker 1: living in the twenty one century. Now. Do we have 156 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:37,560 Speaker 1: any problems? Of course, we have problems, and they'll always 157 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:40,439 Speaker 1: be problems. We need to stand up to it. We're 158 00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 1: never gonna have a seamless system. Thank you so much. 159 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 1: Bill Pescrow with us an important conversation after emotion that 160 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 1: we saw yesterday, a particular thank you, and she will 161 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:53,679 Speaker 1: continue with this neighbor change in London, talking there about 162 00:09:53,679 --> 00:10:10,720 Speaker 1: her first days in UH, the United Kingdom, march in London. 163 00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:13,440 Speaker 1: I'm tom Keene uh Ian. Where am i am in 164 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:15,839 Speaker 1: New York? My had is spinning folks. After the last 165 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 1: six seven days, We're gonna try to digress for a moment. 166 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:22,320 Speaker 1: We will return to UH the emotion and the debate 167 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:25,199 Speaker 1: of what we're seeing in our political economics. But right now, 168 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:30,440 Speaker 1: someone that writes incredibly thoughtful notes synthesizing our macro view 169 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:34,640 Speaker 1: on investment, on finance and economic Sebastian Gali is at 170 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 1: Deutsche Bank. Sebastian, you have an optimistic view on the 171 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 1: American economy and you've just written a thoughtful piece on 172 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:47,599 Speaker 1: this overused, dreaded word innovation. What is innovation? Innovation is 173 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:50,480 Speaker 1: the ability to create new products. It's either because you're 174 00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:54,720 Speaker 1: reacting to your competitors or simply because you are innovating yourself. 175 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:57,320 Speaker 1: And there are two types of innovations. One which is 176 00:10:57,400 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 1: what we call breakthrough, which is very rare. Break them 177 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:02,800 Speaker 1: ald in a sense and the most of the innovation, though, 178 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 1: is more incremental. So you change small stuff, you change 179 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 1: the coffee cup, you change the way people behave a 180 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 1: little bit, but you don't change them on the so 181 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 1: near If I change my bow tie, that's incremental innovation. 182 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 1: Sebastian Um this all as well, you arguing your piece 183 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 1: depends on where we are in the cycle. Are American 184 00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 1: companies innovating enough given where we are in the business cycle? 185 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 1: The answer is probably no. They It looks like the 186 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:33,760 Speaker 1: funding simply for people who actually take a lot of 187 00:11:33,840 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 1: risk is not that available. So you have the Elon 188 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:38,319 Speaker 1: Musk of the world, which are a bit the exception 189 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:41,200 Speaker 1: in the system. It looks like the broad set of 190 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:44,280 Speaker 1: people who would take more risk and try to push 191 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 1: new products which are completely new, are unfortunately not getting 192 00:11:48,640 --> 00:11:50,800 Speaker 1: through and getting enough funding. At this point in time. 193 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:55,560 Speaker 1: The market is very risk of appetite fool it loves 194 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 1: to take risk, but actually if you go down to 195 00:11:57,920 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 1: private equities, it probably is actually far more risk averse 196 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:03,760 Speaker 1: than you show you at this point in time. Right, 197 00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:07,840 Speaker 1: And how is this then feeding through to the productivity issue? Well, 198 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 1: you have two things. You have to look at. The 199 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 1: people who actually provide productivity through innovations are mature sectors. 200 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:16,560 Speaker 1: You can think of a company like heind sketch Up, 201 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 1: for example, without knowing exactly what they do, um they 202 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:22,680 Speaker 1: would basically try to innovate, try to reduce their costs, 203 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 1: and try to create demand for new products that they do, 204 00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 1: and that ends up basically feeding productivity. Then you have 205 00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 1: companies which are high added value products that they basically 206 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:37,880 Speaker 1: create a new Apple or a new iPhone, which is 207 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 1: not necessarily a breakthrough in any way shape or form 208 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:43,400 Speaker 1: might be, but in terms of productivity, is not necessarily 209 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 1: helping you a lot because they want to gain market share, 210 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 1: gain more demand rather than use their costs. The President 211 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 1: with his tweet this morning on the innovation and the 212 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 1: Amazon makes the presidents sure it was wildly non economic, 213 00:12:56,760 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 1: I would say in its In its you explain to 214 00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:05,120 Speaker 1: people that agree with the President that Amazon has stolen 215 00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:09,280 Speaker 1: jobs from towns cities. In the Borders bookstore at the 216 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:12,600 Speaker 1: corner of Park Avenue in fifty seven Street, it has 217 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:14,840 Speaker 1: it has to produce basically the amount of bookstores. And 218 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 1: then Amazon has opened its own bookstore somewhere in New York, 219 00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 1: so it is also opening its own bookstores because it's 220 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:23,600 Speaker 1: that good. Jeff, I know, Jeff listens, they gotta make 221 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:27,319 Speaker 1: a better bookstore. Continue the I have in the view 222 00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 1: on it whatever, but they are it's it's creative destruction. 223 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 1: If you if you live in New Jersey, you can 224 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:35,520 Speaker 1: see that you're living in X factories, whether it's lipped 225 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:39,480 Speaker 1: and tea, whether it's in the coffee producers of the time. 226 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 1: And we change the adapt and they they're part of 227 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:44,320 Speaker 1: that process of adaptation. The question is whether it goes 228 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:46,520 Speaker 1: too slowly or too fast, and the should answer it 229 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:49,120 Speaker 1: doesn't go very fast whatsoever? Yeah, I would I would 230 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 1: editorialize here that we've innovated the coffee some days at 231 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:58,079 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance down to a thin soup. Oh, I'm very 232 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 1: innovative when it when it comes to coffee, certainly. But 233 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:04,880 Speaker 1: just a brief question to you, Sebastian. On FX, we've 234 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:06,959 Speaker 1: got the euro a little weaker on a report that 235 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:10,600 Speaker 1: Mario Draggy actually won't deliver a fresh policy message at 236 00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:14,439 Speaker 1: Jackson Hole. Why is Draggy not pushing back on the 237 00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:17,760 Speaker 1: stronger euro because we're not in a crisis situation than 238 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:19,840 Speaker 1: the euro Zone. Things are going pretty darn well, now, 239 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:21,920 Speaker 1: if you look at it from the Italian point of view, 240 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 1: or it used to be in the Spanish point of view, 241 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 1: of a Greek point of view, then that you might 242 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:29,680 Speaker 1: be a bit more concerned. But the demand internally in 243 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 1: in the Arizone is is going pretty well. It's not 244 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 1: a crisis situation. Therefore, they're not targeting the currency. They 245 00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 1: used to target the currency, they did it deliberately. It's 246 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 1: no longer the case. Do you agree with your colleague 247 00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 1: dominic constom of a larger real growth in America? I 248 00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:47,960 Speaker 1: think it's a structial thing. I mean in the sense 249 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 1: that real interest rates are not relatively high, but inflation 250 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:55,520 Speaker 1: remains subduced potential growth, and the actual growth is decent enough. 251 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 1: And one of the reasons is there are a structural 252 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 1: reason why the CPI is going to stay sticky and 253 00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:02,640 Speaker 1: on the low side for a significant amount of signed 254 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:04,720 Speaker 1: and one of it is because labor market is say, 255 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:07,640 Speaker 1: it's a global one. Sebastian Golly, thank you so much. 256 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:10,200 Speaker 1: Thank you for for being with us for a lengthy 257 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:12,680 Speaker 1: time today. Within all the news slow he is with 258 00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 1: that Deutsche Bank. This is joy. We're gonna speak in 259 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 1: our next section about all that's going on with our president, 260 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 1: the emotions of this nation. But now we celebrate his book, 261 00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:40,120 Speaker 1: and it will always be his book. Michael Baron joins us, 262 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:43,480 Speaker 1: joining us on our phone line. Michael, I've already ordered 263 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 1: the two thousand and eighty pages for myself and my 264 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 1: colleague David Gura. I'm fascinated by the piecing together of 265 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 1: your new almanac of American Politics. What was the Trump 266 00:15:56,840 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 1: effect on writing this edition of your Street? Well, it 267 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:08,840 Speaker 1: obviously it means that you're writing something that you gotta thinks. 268 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:12,040 Speaker 1: You're writing something that's rather different from what you expected 269 00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:16,160 Speaker 1: to be writing about, because I, like most of the people, 270 00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:19,240 Speaker 1: did not think Donald Trump would be elected president. I 271 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 1: mean I I think he had towards the end of 272 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 1: the campaign that he had about one on a three 273 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 1: chance of winning. That's similar to what needs silver strife. 274 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:35,280 Speaker 1: There a website calculated um and what the result teaches 275 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:39,720 Speaker 1: this is that one out of three actually happens one 276 00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 1: out of three times. This was the one out of 277 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 1: the one out of three and and so forth. So 278 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 1: it would be on something I think, you know, historical perspective, 279 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 1: the number of votes that changed the percentage of the electorate, 280 00:16:54,800 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 1: that change was actually not huge. Uh. If you take 281 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:04,400 Speaker 1: a look at comparing say the nineteen seventy two election 282 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 1: was seventy six or in the nineteen seventy six with 283 00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:14,160 Speaker 1: nine eight n nine, A lot more votes shifted between 284 00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:18,760 Speaker 1: those two elections within those four years than between two thousands, 285 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:23,440 Speaker 1: thousand and sixteen. You know, your pieces together, the Richard Cohen, 286 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:27,840 Speaker 1: James Barne, and of course the legendary Charlie Cook. What 287 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:31,240 Speaker 1: is the vignette out of the two thousand eighty pages, 288 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:35,280 Speaker 1: what is the one essay or article that really stuck 289 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:39,640 Speaker 1: out to Michael Barrowne. Well, then the article and sort 290 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:42,679 Speaker 1: of struck out to me was when that I wrote 291 00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:46,560 Speaker 1: and in which I, as I recall, I started off, 292 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:51,520 Speaker 1: UM with the fact that Donald Trump was a person 293 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:55,320 Speaker 1: that most people have told was not a political person 294 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:59,080 Speaker 1: before he stepped down that escalator in June fifteen, two 295 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:05,479 Speaker 1: years ago. UM. Donald Trump was present at the UM 296 00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:11,280 Speaker 1: ceremony dedicating the various non Narrows Bridge in November nineteen 297 00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:15,480 Speaker 1: sixty four. UM. And that's you know, a small crowd 298 00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:20,800 Speaker 1: of dignitaries, UM people led by mar Wagner, by Governor Rockefeller, 299 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 1: by the Robert Moses, the legendary builder of New York 300 00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:31,200 Speaker 1: bridges and parks and so forth. Um, he was eighteen 301 00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:36,639 Speaker 1: years old. He was a student for him. Um what 302 00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:39,800 Speaker 1: was he doing in that crowd? And the answer, obviously 303 00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:43,520 Speaker 1: is that his father, who had made many political connections, 304 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:46,679 Speaker 1: particularly the Brooklyn Democratic machine, had gotten him a ticket. 305 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:50,440 Speaker 1: And there he is watching the dedication of the largest 306 00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:53,080 Speaker 1: bridge in the world and the greatest city in the world, 307 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:56,200 Speaker 1: in the greatest country in the world. You know you're 308 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:59,879 Speaker 1: getting the picture. He's part taking of this event in 309 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 1: uh eat and he notes if he notices later that 310 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 1: the name of the British designer wasn't mentioned, And he 311 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:11,760 Speaker 1: told interviewers when I built something, they're going to mention 312 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 1: my name. Interesting that. Now let's do this, Michael. Let's 313 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:18,200 Speaker 1: come back and we want to talk to you near 314 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 1: a change and I want to really dive into your 315 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:24,240 Speaker 1: thoughts as you're right for the Washington Examiner about what 316 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 1: we've seen since Charlotte's Ville. We are thrilled to bring 317 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:30,600 Speaker 1: you this warning Michael Baron, folks, I can't say enough 318 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 1: about the acquisition. It's expensive price. Warning. Barron's gotta you know, 319 00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:39,920 Speaker 1: pay for the Trump Tower. Cocktails. It's eighty dollars. It's 320 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:43,400 Speaker 1: the best eighty dollars you will spend on the Almanac 321 00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:48,439 Speaker 1: of American Politics two thousand eighteen near a church in London. 322 00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:50,639 Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keaton, New York, and we are honored to 323 00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:54,960 Speaker 1: have with us Michael Barone. In two he put out 324 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 1: a small book that I guess most people ignored. You 325 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:00,200 Speaker 1: should see what it goes for on e Bay right now. 326 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:02,880 Speaker 1: It's like a treasured It's I got a Game of Thrones, 327 00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 1: one of those books in the Citadel. He's out with 328 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:08,399 Speaker 1: his American Almanac of American Politics. Look for that in 329 00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:12,200 Speaker 1: the next few days. I've already bought my copy. Michael 330 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:17,240 Speaker 1: bronachros Riding in the Washington Examiner. Michael, Republicans now and 331 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:21,000 Speaker 1: modern Republicans have to figure out what to do with 332 00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:26,720 Speaker 1: their president with all of your district by district experience. 333 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:33,359 Speaker 1: For example, how will the Bucks County, Pennsylvania Republican eighth district, 334 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:37,720 Speaker 1: How will that congressman respond? I mean, just to give 335 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,960 Speaker 1: an example of one Mr Phizpadrick down there, what a 336 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:47,000 Speaker 1: mainline Republicans do well? The uh the eighth Congressional district, 337 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:51,520 Speaker 1: which is roughly coincident with Bucks County, Pennsylvania, suburban county. 338 00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:57,160 Speaker 1: What will the Republican in lower Box down by Bristol, 339 00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:01,240 Speaker 1: the Delaware where were the industrial area? Uh, he will 340 00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:03,840 Speaker 1: have some good things to say about Donald Trump, and 341 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:06,640 Speaker 1: he will emphasize that he positive things that he thinks 342 00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 1: Mr Trump has done. When he gets into upper Bucks County, 343 00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:14,320 Speaker 1: the kind of leafier area with a much higher percentage 344 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:18,359 Speaker 1: of college graduates and hiring income people, he will lament 345 00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:23,159 Speaker 1: Mr Trump's tendency to tweet off the top of his 346 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 1: head and some of the mistakes that the President Trump 347 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 1: has made or some of the things that may not 348 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:33,200 Speaker 1: be mistakes from his point of view, but they are 349 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:38,360 Speaker 1: unpopular among the college educated group. That's a classic district 350 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 1: that's divided between um non college graduate whitees lower Bucks 351 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:48,359 Speaker 1: who moved towards Donald Trump is compared with two thousand 352 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:53,560 Speaker 1: twelve and other recent elections in between college grad voters 353 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:57,159 Speaker 1: who who moved away from Donald Trump. And that's a 354 00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 1: kind of Yeah, that's a kind of vignette, folks, you 355 00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:02,639 Speaker 1: can get in Rowan's American Almanac of American Politics. Let 356 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:06,400 Speaker 1: me bringing my colleague in London with Michael Barron Nera. 357 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:10,120 Speaker 1: Thank you, Tom, Michael Burrone. Great to speak to you. So, 358 00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:13,440 Speaker 1: while we've been talking through all the media about ceo 359 00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:17,160 Speaker 1: is abandoning the president all morning, I've been thinking to myself, 360 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:19,520 Speaker 1: what does Gary Cone make of all this? And as 361 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:22,200 Speaker 1: if it read my mind, the New York Times headline 362 00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:25,520 Speaker 1: Gary Cone is said to be deeply upset by the 363 00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:29,720 Speaker 1: last few days. What will be more damaging to this 364 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:35,119 Speaker 1: administration in your view? More abandonment from CEOs of the 365 00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:42,040 Speaker 1: businessman president or abandonment by his closest political aids. Uh well, 366 00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:45,080 Speaker 1: I think the lad it would be more dangerous or 367 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:49,480 Speaker 1: problematic for him. You know, we've had a number of 368 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:54,960 Speaker 1: accounts from let's conservatives called mainstream media of people leaving 369 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:58,840 Speaker 1: with Trump administration. Some of those accounts have been accurate, 370 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:04,240 Speaker 1: is have not. So I'm old enough to remember lots 371 00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 1: of administrations where we were told somebody was leaving and 372 00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:11,320 Speaker 1: they ended up not doing so. As for the CEOs 373 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:16,080 Speaker 1: of companies, um, I kind of sniff a certain amount 374 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:20,000 Speaker 1: of political correctness. They're similar to what we saw from 375 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:24,440 Speaker 1: the CEO of public Google when he fired and when 376 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:28,159 Speaker 1: after proclaiming that Google believes in free speech and open 377 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,960 Speaker 1: airing of discussion from its employees, then fired an employee 378 00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 1: who said something that the CEO and uh, certain people 379 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:40,359 Speaker 1: within the corporation. It said, you know, some of the 380 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:44,040 Speaker 1: upset some of the employees. He mischaracterized what they said. 381 00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,600 Speaker 1: I don't think it's right. As American voters are concerned 382 00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:52,680 Speaker 1: that most of them think that CEOs really provide the 383 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:56,080 Speaker 1: kind of guidance they necessarily want. You can get a 384 00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:58,480 Speaker 1: certain number of voters to think a lot of ceo 385 00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 1: should be in jail. Um, they don't usually specify what 386 00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 1: offense they think they should be in jail from there. Rather, uh, 387 00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:11,840 Speaker 1: you know, you hear politicians of both parties. No bankers 388 00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,159 Speaker 1: went to jail as a result of the two thousand 389 00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:17,600 Speaker 1: and eight so forth. So I don't think that's as 390 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:23,760 Speaker 1: damaging to Mr Trump as the as as major departures 391 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:27,000 Speaker 1: in his administration might be. Right, Well, you you talked 392 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,480 Speaker 1: about political correctness. I mean, everybody is asking why the 393 00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:34,400 Speaker 1: President has responded the way he has to what happened 394 00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,280 Speaker 1: in Charlottesville. We had a great piece on the Bloomberg 395 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,960 Speaker 1: by one of our columnists, Timothy L. O'Brien, who said, 396 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:45,200 Speaker 1: it's not about politics, it's his long history of race baiting. 397 00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:49,720 Speaker 1: Should we in fact be surprised by any of this, well, 398 00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:53,480 Speaker 1: you know, there's always seen to be surprised by what 399 00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 1: Donald Trump does. I think to characterize what he what 400 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 1: he said is race baiting, UH is somewhat unfair. You know, 401 00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:08,639 Speaker 1: as far as I'm concerned, Mr Trump, it was a 402 00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:12,200 Speaker 1: couple of days late and saying many of the things 403 00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 1: about this pro Nazi group that was UH staging the 404 00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:21,960 Speaker 1: initial UH meeting there He's gonna attacked in the press conference, 405 00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:24,800 Speaker 1: but for the press statements in the press conference yesterday, 406 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:29,159 Speaker 1: for saying that there was violence on both sides, that 407 00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:34,000 Speaker 1: is among the so called white supremacy groups or whatever 408 00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:36,560 Speaker 1: you want to call them, and by the groups of 409 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:41,160 Speaker 1: h they call themselves anti fat that they're talking about 410 00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:44,760 Speaker 1: anti fascism, and they and they proclaim that they have 411 00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,560 Speaker 1: a right to use physical violence against people who make 412 00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 1: statements they disagree with. That's uh American, Michael, Like, I 413 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,240 Speaker 1: get the idea that there is an imbalance here or 414 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,760 Speaker 1: polarity and you're gonna get violence on both sides. No 415 00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:02,280 Speaker 1: one just agree reason with that. But in the time 416 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,119 Speaker 1: that we've got left with you, what with all of 417 00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 1: your encyclopedic knowledge of the Republican Party. What does the 418 00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:17,080 Speaker 1: Party of Lincoln do with this president? That's the money question. 419 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:19,960 Speaker 1: I mean as I speak, MSNBC showing a picture of 420 00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:23,880 Speaker 1: a younger George Herbert Walker Bush when Michael Barone launched 421 00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:28,920 Speaker 1: out your classic book, what does George Bush Senior's party 422 00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:34,840 Speaker 1: do with Donald Trump? Uh? Well, one of the things 423 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:37,920 Speaker 1: that Jurch H. W. Bush did when he was president 424 00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:45,639 Speaker 1: was after David Duke, the yeah so self appointed klu 425 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:52,240 Speaker 1: klux Klan leader in Louisiana emerged as the one Republican 426 00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:58,159 Speaker 1: running in front run off into Louisiana schristopergotten Louisiana, Jared J. W. 427 00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:00,600 Speaker 1: Bush came out against him, said the was your vote 428 00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:02,720 Speaker 1: for the Democratic Do you need to see that just 429 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:07,000 Speaker 1: but within your heritage and the important place that you 430 00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:11,760 Speaker 1: are in conservative American politics? Do you do you need 431 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:16,760 Speaker 1: to see statements by our former presidents to bring this 432 00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:21,120 Speaker 1: president president to task or is that asking too much 433 00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:25,280 Speaker 1: of them? Well? I think, uh, I don't, I don't know. 434 00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:29,880 Speaker 1: I suppose former former President Bush is uh is over 435 00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:33,440 Speaker 1: an eighty years old now, so I think asking him 436 00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:38,560 Speaker 1: to make public statements maybe uh a little much for 437 00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:43,920 Speaker 1: the more recent President Bush And has made a policy 438 00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:48,360 Speaker 1: of saying very little UH condemned President Obama, I mean 439 00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:51,960 Speaker 1: his eight years of presidency, even though the President Obama 440 00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:54,560 Speaker 1: had some really harsh things from times time to say 441 00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:57,879 Speaker 1: about him. Uh. And has employed the same thing for 442 00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:01,440 Speaker 1: Mr Trump, although he obviously was not a Trump supporter. 443 00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:05,480 Speaker 1: So you know, I think that a lot of Republicans 444 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:09,040 Speaker 1: have come in and said that they don't you know, 445 00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:14,639 Speaker 1: they condemn uh this uh, you know, Nazi race, white nationalism, 446 00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:18,400 Speaker 1: racism which so far as I can determine as a 447 00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:22,880 Speaker 1: few shared by a microscopic percentage of the American public 448 00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:25,520 Speaker 1: that you can always find some not somewhere to believe 449 00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:30,680 Speaker 1: that it has made of green cheese. But um, it's 450 00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:35,359 Speaker 1: a small group. But when it's pursuing violence, and when 451 00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,120 Speaker 1: one of its members committed what looks to me to 452 00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:43,120 Speaker 1: be like a murder, a horrible crime, UH, condemnation is 453 00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:46,280 Speaker 1: an order and has been forthcoming from many people. And 454 00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:52,440 Speaker 1: I regret that Mr Trump didn't start off with a southemnation, 455 00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,760 Speaker 1: a specific condemnation of this group. And if you wanted 456 00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 1: to add that these left winging a typis are committing 457 00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:01,960 Speaker 1: violent s across the nation in the ways that are 458 00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:06,680 Speaker 1: also repugnant. Um, he might have made that, Michael, the 459 00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:10,120 Speaker 1: first one. We gotta leave it there, Michael Brown, thank 460 00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,680 Speaker 1: you so much. Congratulations on our two thousand eighteen edition, 461 00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:18,360 Speaker 1: two thousand pages, folks, the Almanac of American Politics. This 462 00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:34,960 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. This is my interview of the day on NAFTA. 463 00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:38,280 Speaker 1: Brad de Long has not only been a leader in 464 00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:42,720 Speaker 1: our economics, someone that conservatives have to read is someone 465 00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,479 Speaker 1: I hate the word Brad progressive, so I'll go with liberal, 466 00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:50,840 Speaker 1: but also someone with an acute understanding of our economic history. 467 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,960 Speaker 1: He is, of course at Berkeley, Brad, wonderful to speak 468 00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:58,400 Speaker 1: to you today. Is the NAFTA today that we're amending 469 00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:06,200 Speaker 1: is it anything like the NAFTA of or um? The 470 00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:11,320 Speaker 1: NaSTA today is little like NaSTA nineteen because of the 471 00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,760 Speaker 1: twenty two years that have happened since I'm a huge 472 00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:18,440 Speaker 1: amount of water has flowed under the bridge since then. 473 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:22,640 Speaker 1: NAFTA back in nineteen ninety four and nineteen ninety five 474 00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:30,800 Speaker 1: was largely a bet for Mexico that if Mexico could 475 00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:34,320 Speaker 1: get the United States to promise that it would not 476 00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:39,240 Speaker 1: raise tariffs or quotas, on Mexico that Mexico could develop 477 00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:42,680 Speaker 1: more rapidly, become richer, and so be a better neighbor 478 00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:47,640 Speaker 1: for the United States. That promise kind of paid off 479 00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:52,800 Speaker 1: about a third UM. Some good things happened, but Mexico 480 00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:56,280 Speaker 1: got a huge hanking financial crisis out of it, and 481 00:30:56,400 --> 00:31:00,800 Speaker 1: Mexican growth overall has been very disappointing over the past generation. 482 00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:05,040 Speaker 1: What NAFTA has done is it's been a much bigger 483 00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:11,320 Speaker 1: than expected boon for the United States UM lots more UM, 484 00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:15,280 Speaker 1: cheap and relatively high quality goods coming in from Mexico 485 00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:20,080 Speaker 1: and the ability of United States firms to significantly improve 486 00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:24,760 Speaker 1: their competitive position with respect to competitors in Europe and 487 00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:30,360 Speaker 1: Japan by creating an integrated, integrated North American value chains. 488 00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:33,760 Speaker 1: Can we get a dialogue from President Trump from the 489 00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:39,480 Speaker 1: Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross that dovetails their political pressures 490 00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:44,760 Speaker 1: into a successful amendment of NAFTA because they don't agree 491 00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:48,120 Speaker 1: with the statement you just made, do they? Well, it's 492 00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:51,440 Speaker 1: hard to know what they agree with. UM that the 493 00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:56,520 Speaker 1: story coming from I think Jared Kushner or Jared Kushner's 494 00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:59,760 Speaker 1: people on their direct line to the New York Times 495 00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:03,480 Speaker 1: is that Wilbert Ross ran at O'donald Trump's office with 496 00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:07,240 Speaker 1: a map showing that trump Land was the part of 497 00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:11,160 Speaker 1: the country that the most hurt by NaSTA aggregation, and 498 00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:15,040 Speaker 1: that's what led Trump to back off his initial kind 499 00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:17,720 Speaker 1: of campaign claimed that he was going to get rid 500 00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:21,840 Speaker 1: of NaSTA very early, and instead shift to this, well, 501 00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:26,240 Speaker 1: g we have to renegotiate it. Um. So it's very 502 00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:31,040 Speaker 1: una what the Trump administration thinks about this eventually, since 503 00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:33,680 Speaker 1: if you look, if you look at what they're asking 504 00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:37,800 Speaker 1: for right now, um, one of the major things seems 505 00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:41,200 Speaker 1: to be that they're asking that Mexico and Canada agree 506 00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:44,239 Speaker 1: as part of the renegotiation of Naska agreed to the 507 00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:47,959 Speaker 1: things that Mexico and Canada agreed for the Trans Pacific Partnerships, 508 00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:54,640 Speaker 1: which Trump bitched on the very first day. I look 509 00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:57,920 Speaker 1: bread at the agel and you're you're truly one of 510 00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:00,920 Speaker 1: our authorities on economic history. One of the great things 511 00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:04,280 Speaker 1: is to take whatever you defeated in the election, rename it, 512 00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:06,800 Speaker 1: and put your brand on it. Are we going to 513 00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:09,880 Speaker 1: do that with t p P. Everybody's shot down t 514 00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:13,040 Speaker 1: p P. And now that whoever's won, Clinton or Trump, 515 00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:16,600 Speaker 1: they both were against it. They're gonna essentially do TPP 516 00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:19,040 Speaker 1: but not call it t p P. Is that where 517 00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:23,360 Speaker 1: we're heading. Well, that's what seems to be the Trump 518 00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:28,720 Speaker 1: administration's negotiating position, or at least the negotiating position of 519 00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:32,040 Speaker 1: the Trump staff and the Trump Cabinet members who are 520 00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:35,680 Speaker 1: running this thing. It's not at all clear that's what 521 00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:39,440 Speaker 1: the President wants to do. Um. The President seems to 522 00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:45,040 Speaker 1: have this idea that each country's trade should be balanced 523 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:49,240 Speaker 1: with every other country's trade every year, and that if 524 00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:52,560 Speaker 1: your country ever has a trade deficit with another country, 525 00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:56,840 Speaker 1: that means you're a lous. We have seen, we've seen 526 00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:01,080 Speaker 1: so we've seen, Brad, going back to Chumpeter and Thomas 527 00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:04,680 Speaker 1: mccraw's Outstanding Profit of Innovation, my book of the Year 528 00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:09,320 Speaker 1: ages ago, Brad, we've seen creative destruction. The President today 529 00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:13,080 Speaker 1: went after Amazon. Now that's in retail. I get it. 530 00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:16,080 Speaker 1: But you are one of our authorities on the creative 531 00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:20,000 Speaker 1: destruction of industry in America. Is there any grain of 532 00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:24,040 Speaker 1: truth to what the President said that Jeff Bezos has 533 00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:30,160 Speaker 1: failed cities, towns, and states across this nation. Um, will 534 00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:35,360 Speaker 1: I say that the thing that's failed, the things that's failed, 535 00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:42,440 Speaker 1: the downtowns of kind of small city America. UM is 536 00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:47,479 Speaker 1: not Amazon nearly so much as Walmart. UM. Amazon has 537 00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:51,120 Speaker 1: gotten a lot of people, a lot of very good 538 00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:57,239 Speaker 1: stuff cheap um shipped through UM, you know, through information 539 00:34:57,280 --> 00:35:00,480 Speaker 1: and then through shipping dissemination. Amazon is an update version 540 00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:04,360 Speaker 1: of what Sears Roebuck on Montgomery Ward did a century 541 00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:07,120 Speaker 1: a century and a half ago in terms of getting 542 00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:11,640 Speaker 1: the goods of America's high productivity factory out to people 543 00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:15,080 Speaker 1: who didn't live right next door to a huge store. 544 00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:18,080 Speaker 1: And so he had fifty years during which Spears and 545 00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:21,319 Speaker 1: Montgomery Ward were dominant. But then with the coming of 546 00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:23,719 Speaker 1: the automobile, you no longer had to wait for the 547 00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:27,520 Speaker 1: post office to bring your kind of large refrigerator from 548 00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:30,960 Speaker 1: Montgomery Wards. You could go drive, and it shifted back 549 00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:35,200 Speaker 1: to retail. Now it's shifting back again to distribution. This 550 00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:39,720 Speaker 1: is very normal. UM. What's not normal is that Trump 551 00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:42,920 Speaker 1: is met at Visos because Visos owns the Washington Post 552 00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:45,279 Speaker 1: and he doesn't think the Washington Post is being nice 553 00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:50,000 Speaker 1: enough there. Didn't view this as economic policy. This is 554 00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:53,479 Speaker 1: you said, mediapol. Let's come back with Professor DeLine. Lots 555 00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:55,239 Speaker 1: of talk about I really want to address a labor 556 00:35:55,320 --> 00:36:00,239 Speaker 1: economy in his important work on labor share in UH 557 00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:02,279 Speaker 1: NAFTA as well. We've got to get to that in 558 00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:05,520 Speaker 1: our next UH section. I should point out that Professor 559 00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:09,160 Speaker 1: DeLong and Professor Davidovitz seemed to agree about the Walmart 560 00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:13,640 Speaker 1: effect versus the Amazon effect. That's something that UH we 561 00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:18,400 Speaker 1: have as well. Folks. There are a certain number of 562 00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:23,520 Speaker 1: essays a year which stopped the economic profession. They can 563 00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:29,000 Speaker 1: sometimes be in fancy magazines that only academics read. They 564 00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:31,760 Speaker 1: can be out on the internet. They can be something 565 00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:35,040 Speaker 1: as simple as a Bloomberg View essay. One of them, 566 00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:40,920 Speaker 1: on January this year, was written by Jay Bradford DeLong. 567 00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:44,279 Speaker 1: Let me read the entire title off the vox website. 568 00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:51,040 Speaker 1: NAFTA and other trade deals have not gutted American manufacturing period. 569 00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:54,920 Speaker 1: It was hugely controversial at the time and led to 570 00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:58,759 Speaker 1: what every good academic wants, which is massive follow up 571 00:36:59,200 --> 00:37:03,040 Speaker 1: in positive and negative reviewing critique. Brad DeLong of the 572 00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:08,040 Speaker 1: University of California at Berkeley is with us now, Brad, 573 00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:12,239 Speaker 1: eight months on from your important essay, what has been 574 00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:16,719 Speaker 1: the summed criticism are our our academics in agreement with 575 00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:20,160 Speaker 1: you that NAFTA and other trade deals did not gut 576 00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:26,840 Speaker 1: American manufacturing. UM. I think there's a distinction people like 577 00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:34,000 Speaker 1: to draw between trade policy on the one hand, UM 578 00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:42,360 Speaker 1: trade effects on the second, and globalization on the third. UM. 579 00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:47,640 Speaker 1: Trade policy I think almost everyone agrees has had little 580 00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:52,200 Speaker 1: effect UM in terms that if we hadn't done NAFTA, 581 00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:56,960 Speaker 1: if we hadn't let China allowed China to join the 582 00:37:56,960 --> 00:38:01,640 Speaker 1: World Trade Organization, that America today would look very much 583 00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:08,120 Speaker 1: like it does. That whatever problems America has UM are 584 00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:12,640 Speaker 1: not at all due to making quote bad trade deals, 585 00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:17,279 Speaker 1: and on the flip side, whatever advantages America has are 586 00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:22,040 Speaker 1: not at all due to quote bad trade deals. Then 587 00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:26,960 Speaker 1: you get into the question of the effects of international 588 00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:30,960 Speaker 1: trade on the US economy given the other policy mistakes 589 00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:35,200 Speaker 1: we're making, And there there's a real debate about how, 590 00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:40,640 Speaker 1: given our other policy mistakes, given large deficits at the 591 00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:46,040 Speaker 1: wrong time under Reagan and George W. Bush, given insufficient 592 00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:49,799 Speaker 1: deficits at the right time when the economy was deeply depressed, 593 00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:54,640 Speaker 1: how much trade has been a net plus or net minus. 594 00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:58,920 Speaker 1: And that debate is serious and ongoing very quickly. Here 595 00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:02,040 Speaker 1: what's the and the third one is globalization as a whole. 596 00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:05,600 Speaker 1: That because of globalization, we no longer have a lock 597 00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:10,279 Speaker 1: on making the high value manufactured and a lot of 598 00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:13,680 Speaker 1: America's prosperity for fifty years was based on the fact 599 00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:17,120 Speaker 1: that we had the old about the only efficient factories 600 00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:19,200 Speaker 1: in the world, and that meant we could buy lots 601 00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:21,920 Speaker 1: of good stuff cheap from abroad. We no longer have 602 00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:24,360 Speaker 1: that advantage. We have to completely no longer have a 603 00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:28,400 Speaker 1: manu effect amount not playing high high value bread factory. 604 00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:31,799 Speaker 1: And that's natural, that's that wasn't an advantage we could 605 00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:35,040 Speaker 1: sustain forever what happened. And you have been good on this, 606 00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:37,120 Speaker 1: Feel Burger and others have been very good on this, 607 00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:41,840 Speaker 1: really across party politics. The people that lost their jobs 608 00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:48,400 Speaker 1: low wage textile manufacturing is one example. They were supposed 609 00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:55,120 Speaker 1: to get help, slash subsidy, slash a life forward given 610 00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:59,520 Speaker 1: these effects. Am I right that the lackey and individualistic 611 00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:04,120 Speaker 1: society of America failed those people? And can we learn 612 00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:09,960 Speaker 1: from that in these new negotiations? Well, I think CATAF. 613 00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:14,239 Speaker 1: Actually it wouldn't have failed. Those quotes those people unquote 614 00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:20,600 Speaker 1: had Newt Gingrich not becomes speak of the House in January. 615 00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:25,719 Speaker 1: You know that is all the labor market stuff that 616 00:40:25,800 --> 00:40:29,560 Speaker 1: Bob Reich as Labor Secretary was quick, and it was 617 00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:32,839 Speaker 1: supposed to be kind of round two of the Clinton administration, 618 00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:36,800 Speaker 1: after the kind of Round one of get economic growth, 619 00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:40,280 Speaker 1: going round two of making sure the growth was equitable. 620 00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:44,239 Speaker 1: Um that second part collapsed when the Republican the Democratic 621 00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:47,320 Speaker 1: Congressional majority built it a way in the election of 622 00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:52,799 Speaker 1: and was never has never been revived. UM. So I'm 623 00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:56,640 Speaker 1: not sure if it's a failure of America as a 624 00:40:56,680 --> 00:41:02,120 Speaker 1: system or the result of one bad election that produced 625 00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:06,040 Speaker 1: people not willing to follow through on the policy promises 626 00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:08,680 Speaker 1: that Clinton had made and that George H. W. Bush 627 00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:12,920 Speaker 1: had made before him. That said, virtually nobody was unhappy 628 00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:17,040 Speaker 1: with NaSTA in the late nineteen nineties. You wander around 629 00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:20,520 Speaker 1: America in the late nineteen nineties, and the last thing 630 00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:25,880 Speaker 1: people are worried about, um, his NAPTA. People are excited 631 00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:30,000 Speaker 1: about the Internet. People are seeing large real wage growth 632 00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:33,000 Speaker 1: all over the economy for the first time ever. People 633 00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:36,640 Speaker 1: are upset because California's housing prices are blooming and it's 634 00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:39,920 Speaker 1: expensive to move to Silicon Valley. But you kind of 635 00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:44,040 Speaker 1: NaSTA killing the American economy was simply not a thing 636 00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:51,160 Speaker 1: um from a professor. We've got to leave it there 637 00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:54,280 Speaker 1: because of time, but thank you so much and congratulations 638 00:41:54,280 --> 00:41:57,600 Speaker 1: on the impact of your January essay on NAFTA bred 639 00:41:57,680 --> 00:42:00,239 Speaker 1: that DeLong is at the University of Californi when you 640 00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:13,720 Speaker 1: Berkeley really appreciate his time. UH today, thanks for listening 641 00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:18,120 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews 642 00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:23,560 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. 643 00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:27,200 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene. David Gura is at 644 00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:32,040 Speaker 1: David Gura. Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. 645 00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:33,359 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio.