WEBVTT - What Worries Former Pentagon Chief Robert Gates 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:10.959 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Tonight, so Russian explosive 0:00:11.039 --> 0:00:12.520 drones slamming into. 0:00:12.360 --> 0:00:16.280 Now to Israel issuing new evacuation orders in Gaza. Dozens 0:00:16.320 --> 0:00:19.640 of Palestinians were killed by Israeli fire as it waited 0:00:19.640 --> 0:00:22.720 for food in northern Gaza. With I am now striking back, 0:00:23.000 --> 0:00:25.840 hiking tariffs on US goods arriving in China to one 0:00:25.920 --> 0:00:29.080 hundred and twenty five percent, and tonight here American farmers 0:00:29.080 --> 0:00:31.080 worry that China will now turn elsewhere. 0:00:31.760 --> 0:00:35.640 I think that it's the most and many respects, the 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:41.040 most perilous time since the late forties, maybe ever. 0:00:41.600 --> 0:00:44.960 Robert Gates has had a storied career in national security. 0:00:45.320 --> 0:00:48.480 Of the eight presidents I worked for, five were Republicans, 0:00:48.520 --> 0:00:53.720 three were Democrats. Ironically, my career was bookended by two Democrats, 0:00:53.800 --> 0:00:55.920 Lyndon Johnson and Barack Obama. 0:00:56.560 --> 0:01:00.120 Over many decades of public service, Gates served as Secretary 0:01:00.160 --> 0:01:04.160 of Defense for two presidents consecutively and as the director 0:01:04.160 --> 0:01:07.880 of the CIA. And Since Gates left government in twenty eleven, 0:01:08.200 --> 0:01:12.000 he has remained influential as an author and as an advisor. 0:01:12.440 --> 0:01:16.000 Then President Electrump sought Gates's Council before he started his 0:01:16.080 --> 0:01:20.240 first term and today Gates runs a strategic consulting firm 0:01:20.360 --> 0:01:23.880 with President George W. Bush's Secretary of State Condaleza Rice, 0:01:24.319 --> 0:01:29.720 alongside other officials from the Bush administration. I wanted to 0:01:29.720 --> 0:01:33.319 get Gates's perspective on this perilous moment in history, as 0:01:33.319 --> 0:01:35.600 he put it. I wanted to hear about what he's 0:01:35.640 --> 0:01:39.039 watching closely, what worries him, and what's at stake for 0:01:39.080 --> 0:01:44.760 the world. I'm David Gera, and this is the big 0:01:44.800 --> 0:01:47.960 take from Bloomberg News today on the show My conversation 0:01:48.080 --> 0:01:51.559 with former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. I sat down 0:01:51.560 --> 0:01:55.040 with him away from Washington in Colorado at the Aspen 0:01:55.120 --> 0:01:58.160 Security Forum. This is one of several interviews I did 0:01:58.160 --> 0:02:00.160 there with some of the biggest names in for we're 0:02:00.200 --> 0:02:03.240 in policy and national security. We'll share those with you 0:02:03.480 --> 0:02:11.640 over the next few weeks. I wanted to ask you, first, 0:02:11.639 --> 0:02:14.960 given your experience and your knowledge of history, how you're 0:02:15.000 --> 0:02:16.040 thinking about this moment. 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:18.639 Well, first of all, I think that it's the most 0:02:20.160 --> 0:02:25.440 and respects the most perilous time since the late forties, 0:02:25.680 --> 0:02:32.639 maybe ever. We have never confronted aggressive, nuclear armed great 0:02:32.680 --> 0:02:35.760 powers in both Asia and Europe. At the same time, 0:02:36.960 --> 0:02:40.400 we have a major war going on in Europe, major 0:02:40.440 --> 0:02:45.680 war going on in the Middle East, threatened war in Asia. 0:02:46.240 --> 0:02:50.320 And this all comes at a time when we as 0:02:50.400 --> 0:02:55.200 Americans are divided about our role in the world, about 0:02:55.200 --> 0:02:59.480 our politics, about everything else, and lots of things that 0:03:00.160 --> 0:03:05.760 need fixing aren't getting fixed, from the deficit and the 0:03:05.800 --> 0:03:12.680 debt to figuring out once again how to do military construction, 0:03:13.600 --> 0:03:17.720 how to rebuild defense industries. So it's a pretty tough time. 0:03:18.280 --> 0:03:23.080 It's also a time of you know, it's been hyped 0:03:23.120 --> 0:03:28.440 and headlined and everything, but it really is kind of 0:03:28.480 --> 0:03:33.000 an inflection point in terms of taking a hard, cold 0:03:33.120 --> 0:03:38.600 look at our government and seeing how we can do 0:03:38.640 --> 0:03:41.480 it better. As I like to put it, in any 0:03:41.520 --> 0:03:46.680 institution over decades, barnacles, film build up. It's true of 0:03:46.720 --> 0:03:51.720 every organization I've led, CIA, boy Scouts, Texas, A and 0:03:51.880 --> 0:03:56.680 M and Defense. And the challenge for a leader is 0:03:56.680 --> 0:04:01.400 how do you preserve the tradition and the culture that 0:04:01.600 --> 0:04:05.680 made the institutions great in the first place, but scrape 0:04:05.680 --> 0:04:08.760 off all those barnacles and make the reforms that are 0:04:08.800 --> 0:04:11.480 needed to be successful in the future. I think that's 0:04:11.520 --> 0:04:14.720 the challenge and I don't think we're facing it very well. 0:04:14.920 --> 0:04:16.240 I'm going to ask you about a few of these 0:04:16.240 --> 0:04:18.440 military conflicts that are ongoing in a moment, but first 0:04:18.440 --> 0:04:20.880 I want to ask you about the trade war, and 0:04:20.920 --> 0:04:23.480 we focus a lot on the economic ramifications of that, 0:04:23.600 --> 0:04:26.640 what it's going to mean for trading relationships. How do 0:04:26.680 --> 0:04:29.440 you see that in the context of national security? How 0:04:29.480 --> 0:04:35.159 does waging this war stand to change the relationships between yes, 0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:36.960 trading partners, but nation states as well. 0:04:37.560 --> 0:04:42.360 So interestingly, I think the trade imbalances actually began as 0:04:42.360 --> 0:04:46.119 a national security matter, and that was after the war. 0:04:46.440 --> 0:04:52.800 The United States gave huge trade advantages to Germany and Japan, 0:04:53.480 --> 0:04:56.440 but also the Europeans trying to recover from the war, 0:04:57.440 --> 0:05:00.400 and we actually basically said, we'll take make a hit 0:05:01.000 --> 0:05:04.760 economically because it's really important for our security for these 0:05:04.800 --> 0:05:07.520 countries to get back up on their feet, have a 0:05:07.600 --> 0:05:10.960 working economy. That's what's going to keep the communists out. 0:05:11.800 --> 0:05:16.000 Work pretty well. But we never turned back to those 0:05:16.400 --> 0:05:20.239 advantages that we had given, and over the years, those 0:05:20.279 --> 0:05:25.520 disadvantages piled up against the United States, and nobody really 0:05:25.600 --> 0:05:29.520 wanted to take them on because obviously, with our allies 0:05:29.560 --> 0:05:34.120 that was a very sensitive subject. And then with the 0:05:34.200 --> 0:05:39.479 advent of China into the WTO, it sort of put 0:05:39.600 --> 0:05:45.400 rocket fuel behind these trade issues, and mainly because China 0:05:45.440 --> 0:05:50.080 didn't abide by the rules when China joined WTO, and 0:05:50.240 --> 0:05:53.840 we and other developed commentaries failed to hold them accountable. 0:05:54.480 --> 0:05:56.960 This should have begun in two thousand and one, two 0:05:57.000 --> 0:05:59.640 thousand and two saying you can't do that, you can't 0:05:59.680 --> 0:06:02.520 seal that IP, you can't dump over here. There are 0:06:02.520 --> 0:06:06.800 a lot of things you can't do. But we let 0:06:06.839 --> 0:06:10.360 it go. And so in a way, I would regard 0:06:11.000 --> 0:06:13.279 what's going on right now as kind of a reckoning 0:06:14.320 --> 0:06:19.080 to readdress the imbalances that have existed with some countries 0:06:19.160 --> 0:06:22.720 since after World War Two in the early fifties, and 0:06:22.760 --> 0:06:25.680 then have built up since the creation of the WTO 0:06:25.880 --> 0:06:28.440 and with China and so on. You know, are there 0:06:28.520 --> 0:06:31.599 better ways to do it? Maybe? But in some ways. 0:06:32.880 --> 0:06:36.560 Let me use the analogy of the Europeans decisions on 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:41.280 arms control, on arms build up, on defense spending, I, 0:06:41.440 --> 0:06:46.000 among many many others berated the Europeans for years, decades 0:06:46.600 --> 0:06:50.360 to increase their defense spending, and we had no luck. 0:06:50.720 --> 0:06:56.920 We literally failed. So incomes President Trump with his two 0:06:56.920 --> 0:07:01.360 by four and he's got their attention, and guess what, 0:07:01.800 --> 0:07:05.440 they've decided that they will spend more on defense. Now 0:07:05.480 --> 0:07:07.680 he had I think a lot of help from Putin, 0:07:07.960 --> 0:07:11.960 from Vladimir Putin, who may not scare the American people, 0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:16.080 but he sure scares the Europeans. So I think we're 0:07:16.200 --> 0:07:20.440 kind of reckoning with both in terms of trade but 0:07:20.520 --> 0:07:24.679 also defense spending on the part of the Europeans of 0:07:24.800 --> 0:07:30.280 readdressing or addressing problems that have been long extant, but 0:07:30.640 --> 0:07:34.400 we really haven't had the political fortitude or the willingness 0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:37.560 to potentially offend people to take them on. 0:07:38.760 --> 0:07:40.600 The war in Gaza has gone on now for more 0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:44.080 than six hundred and fifty days, and I wonder how 0:07:44.120 --> 0:07:47.600 you see the path forward to resolution. Is it evident 0:07:47.640 --> 0:07:49.720 to you how long is this going to last? 0:07:49.840 --> 0:07:52.640 You think, well, I hear people betting on different times. 0:07:52.680 --> 0:07:55.120 You know, will it end this year? Whenever? Well, the 0:07:55.240 --> 0:07:58.800 fastest way for it would end would be for Hamas 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:03.080 to own up to the fact that they destroyed Gaza. 0:08:04.000 --> 0:08:08.120 Their attack on October seventh began all of this, and 0:08:08.200 --> 0:08:11.360 they created an environment in which Israel said enough is enough, 0:08:11.800 --> 0:08:13.760 and we're not going to put up with these attacks. 0:08:13.840 --> 0:08:16.320 Every few years. We're going to solve this problem one 0:08:16.320 --> 0:08:20.080 way or another. Now, ideally you would have some kind 0:08:20.080 --> 0:08:25.920 of political entity for the Palestinians that would have some 0:08:26.120 --> 0:08:31.320 credibility internationally, if not with Israel. And that can't be 0:08:31.440 --> 0:08:35.480 the Palestinian authority in the West Bank, which everybody knows 0:08:35.559 --> 0:08:39.720 is corrupt and incompetent to boot. So where are the 0:08:39.760 --> 0:08:44.520 Palestinians finally leaders to say enough is enough, we need 0:08:44.520 --> 0:08:52.280 to start rebuilding Gaza. And I personally think this thing will, 0:08:52.880 --> 0:08:56.120 this horrible thing will come to an end when Hamas 0:08:57.160 --> 0:09:02.480 finally concludes they can't win, They're not winning support abroad, 0:09:03.960 --> 0:09:05.360 and their people are being destroyed. 0:09:05.760 --> 0:09:08.600 Benjamin Natnewe, who is somebody you know and have dealt 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:11.640 with over these many years. What have you noticed or 0:09:11.640 --> 0:09:14.040 observed about his behavior in this conflict and how much 0:09:14.120 --> 0:09:16.400 is that path the resolution going to be shaped by 0:09:16.400 --> 0:09:17.640 his political fortunes. 0:09:18.160 --> 0:09:21.439 Well, I've known Bibe a long time and we've had 0:09:21.480 --> 0:09:24.080 our disagreements along the way. I think it's fair to say, 0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:28.840 but I will give Natanian who credit for this. Since 0:09:28.880 --> 0:09:32.760 October seventh, he has trained the strategic environment in the 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:37.560 Middle East in a very significant way. Iran counted on 0:09:37.640 --> 0:09:42.120 its surrogates, his Belah Hamas, the whose the tribesmen in 0:09:42.240 --> 0:09:45.920 northern Iraq and others to intimidate others in the region 0:09:45.960 --> 0:09:50.640 and to attack Israel and taking advantage of that attack 0:09:50.920 --> 0:09:54.280 or in response to that attack, Natanie Who and I 0:09:54.320 --> 0:09:57.520 think the Israelis in general said enough, and so they 0:09:57.600 --> 0:10:01.079 went after his Belah. They went after Hamas. They certainly 0:10:01.080 --> 0:10:04.240 played a role in the overthrow of Asad. His Bilah 0:10:04.320 --> 0:10:07.880 can't be rearmed now because that path was through Syria 0:10:07.920 --> 0:10:12.600 from Iran and dramatically weaken Iran, first through the initial 0:10:12.640 --> 0:10:15.960 attack and then through the more recent one that involved 0:10:15.960 --> 0:10:19.680 the United States. So I think Iran is very much 0:10:19.679 --> 0:10:22.640 on its back foot at this point. Whether we've long 0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:25.880 term solved any problems, I think remains to be seen. 0:10:26.160 --> 0:10:29.280 But in Atia, Who's made it pretty clear that if 0:10:29.320 --> 0:10:33.080 the Iranians resumed that nuclear program, he'll go back in 0:10:33.120 --> 0:10:35.840 and as he puts it, mow the grass you were not. 0:10:36.400 --> 0:10:39.520 But the bottom line is the strategic environment in the 0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:45.040 whole region has been changed subsequent to October seventh, And 0:10:45.240 --> 0:10:47.760 the truth is, if some kind of a solution can 0:10:47.800 --> 0:10:53.160 be found for the Palestinians, then I think the opportunities 0:10:53.200 --> 0:10:56.880 in terms of Israel, Saudi Arabia, the other Arab states 0:10:56.920 --> 0:11:00.360 beyond the UAE and Cutter and so on, are really 0:11:00.400 --> 0:11:03.760 pretty extraordinary. These guys are all interested in business. They 0:11:03.840 --> 0:11:07.160 want to expand, they want investment, they want to diversify 0:11:07.200 --> 0:11:10.400 their economy. They see Israel as a technological giant in 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:13.959 the region, so there's a lot of potential there, but 0:11:14.080 --> 0:11:16.840 they've got to get past the Palestinian problem. 0:11:17.440 --> 0:11:20.160 You were not somebody who was agitating for strikes on 0:11:20.320 --> 0:11:23.720 nuclear facilities in Iran, And as the dust settles on 0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:26.960 those strikes, how do you gauge their efficacy and where 0:11:26.960 --> 0:11:28.040 does that lead? Do you think? 0:11:28.440 --> 0:11:31.200 Well, this verse came up when I was Secretary of 0:11:31.200 --> 0:11:35.240 Defense under President Bush so back in two thousand and seven, 0:11:35.320 --> 0:11:37.760 two thousand and eight, I said, you know, there's no 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:40.360 doubt we can do a lot of damage to those facilities. 0:11:40.360 --> 0:11:42.760 And they hadn't started going really deep at that point, 0:11:42.760 --> 0:11:46.720 but I said, and my position from then until today 0:11:46.960 --> 0:11:53.080 has been, you can significantly damage and set back Iran's 0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:58.200 nuclear program, but you cannot eliminate it militarily. They can't 0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:02.600 unlearn what they've already learned. The Israelis are now saying 0:12:02.640 --> 0:12:07.360 that they probably scattered the enriched uranium at three sites Esfahan, 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:11.640 Fordoh and the Tons, so they probably have some of 0:12:11.679 --> 0:12:15.920 that and they have some suit centrifuges. My view for 0:12:15.960 --> 0:12:19.440 what I was telling President Bush fifteen years ago was 0:12:19.800 --> 0:12:21.920 you can damage it, but you can't destroy it. You're 0:12:22.040 --> 0:12:25.760 just buying time, and the question is whether the time 0:12:25.800 --> 0:12:28.959 that has been bought can be translated into some kind 0:12:29.000 --> 0:12:29.640 of an agreement. 0:12:32.200 --> 0:12:36.200 My conversation with former Defense Secretary Robert Gates continues after 0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:49.560 the break. After former Defense Secretary Robert Gates and I 0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:52.240 discussed the trade war and the war in Gaza, we 0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:55.840 turned to another major conflict playing out today in Ukraine. 0:12:56.640 --> 0:12:59.959 How do you see President Putin's calculus in that convent? 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:03.280 We see the economic vice the country is in, the 0:13:03.360 --> 0:13:05.840 incredible loss of life. Where do you see all of 0:13:05.840 --> 0:13:06.320 that headed? 0:13:06.760 --> 0:13:10.319 I think Putin is not all that difficult to understand. 0:13:10.480 --> 0:13:15.360 Vladimir Putin believes it is his personal destiny to recreate 0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:19.280 the Russian Empire, and as my old mentorist Big Brzhenski 0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:23.440 used to say, there can be no Russian Empire without Ukraine. 0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:28.240 And so Putin sees it as his personal destiny to 0:13:28.280 --> 0:13:32.200 bring Ukraine back into the fold of the Russian Empire, 0:13:32.800 --> 0:13:36.240 if not as an integral part of Russia, then as 0:13:36.320 --> 0:13:39.520 a client state basically does what Russia wants it to. 0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:42.880 And his objectives have not changed from day one. He 0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:46.760 wants the four provinces in the East, he wants Ukraine disarmed, 0:13:47.040 --> 0:13:50.360 he wants a pro Russian government in Kiev. He wants 0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:54.600 a ban on Ukrainian membership in NATO and the EU. 0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:59.920 That's all. And he hasn't waivered one whit from the 0:14:00.240 --> 0:14:03.240 very beginning, and he is willing to pay whatever price 0:14:03.320 --> 0:14:05.680 is involved. And it is beginning to bite. There was 0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:08.560 a sugar rush from a lot of the defense industries 0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:10.960 investments and a lot of the things coming from China 0:14:11.000 --> 0:14:13.240 and so on. But I think they've run through that. 0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:16.920 The inflation is really beginning to ramp up twenty one 0:14:16.960 --> 0:14:20.800 percent interest rates, that's just a formal interest rate, who 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:23.960 knows what the real one is. Things are getting life's 0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:28.120 getting a little harder in Russia. So I don't see 0:14:28.200 --> 0:14:32.440 any breakthroughs. That's one of those predictions that may turn 0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:35.640 out to be very embarrassing. But the Ukrainians have been 0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:38.520 able to hold their ground pretty well in the East, 0:14:38.680 --> 0:14:42.240 as it's kind of a drone versus drone war out there. 0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:46.600 But Putin is clearly putting the pressure on the domestic 0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:50.560 side in Ukraine with these attacks by hundreds of drones 0:14:51.040 --> 0:14:52.000 every single night. 0:14:52.560 --> 0:14:54.400 What did you make of what seemed like a change 0:14:54.400 --> 0:14:58.320 in tack from President Trump a few days ago. Seems 0:14:58.360 --> 0:15:00.360 to be growing frustrated with President Putin. There was a 0:15:00.360 --> 0:15:02.320 lot of talk about them meeting and having a summit, 0:15:02.400 --> 0:15:05.760 negotiating this themselves. His patient seems to being tested here. 0:15:06.120 --> 0:15:08.800 Most of the presidents that I worked with felt that, 0:15:09.120 --> 0:15:11.880 I mean, they got themselves elected president of the United States. 0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:15.280 They basically feel like they can win anybody over. I've 0:15:15.320 --> 0:15:17.920 seen it Withn't Benny, and you know it started with 0:15:17.960 --> 0:15:21.800 Franklin Roosevelt and Uncle Joe Stalin. You know, I can 0:15:21.840 --> 0:15:25.400 win this guy over. And a lot of presidents feel 0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:29.040 that way, that they can develop a personal chemistry with 0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:33.680 the other guy that will make great things possible, and 0:15:33.800 --> 0:15:36.960 most of them end up disappointed. And I think that's 0:15:37.000 --> 0:15:40.800 what's happened here. I don't think President Trump was unique 0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:44.880 in thinking he could bring Puton around, nor is he 0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:47.480 unique in being disappointed. 0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:50.400 The president has Steve Witkoff his friend, a businessman, not 0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:52.440 somebody who was in the foreign service or a diplomat 0:15:52.440 --> 0:15:56.400 before leading the negotiations that he's been having with Russia 0:15:56.440 --> 0:15:59.440 with President Putin. Do you see wisdom in that using 0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:02.880 somebody who doesn't have that font of experience from government 0:16:02.880 --> 0:16:05.360 and diplomacy, or does it raise questions for you about 0:16:05.640 --> 0:16:06.760 how approaching well. 0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:10.760 Lots of different presidents use lots of different techniques. When 0:16:10.760 --> 0:16:14.000 we were first starting to reach out to the Soviet 0:16:14.120 --> 0:16:19.000 Union and to the Chinese and so on, US businessmen 0:16:19.080 --> 0:16:23.040 would be used as intermediaries to carry the message, if 0:16:23.040 --> 0:16:29.000 you will. I think that other presidents have used special envoys. 0:16:29.160 --> 0:16:32.040 President Obama liked special envoys and he had a bunch 0:16:32.080 --> 0:16:36.400 of them. I personally have found there are a few 0:16:36.400 --> 0:16:39.440 instances where those of work. So on the Northern Ireland 0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:43.840 problem George Mitchell, that worked out pretty well. But on 0:16:44.360 --> 0:16:49.480 Afghanistan Pakistan Richard Holbrook, that didn't work. So I'm inclined 0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:51.840 to give presidents a lot of leeway in the tools 0:16:51.840 --> 0:16:55.160 that they want to use. And you know, it's always 0:16:55.160 --> 0:16:58.960 also the fact that when appointing ambassadors, I always thought 0:16:59.000 --> 0:17:01.480 it was most important to the host government, not that 0:17:01.520 --> 0:17:05.639 they had somebody super experienced as the US ambassador, but 0:17:05.760 --> 0:17:07.639 somebody who could pick up the telephone and call the 0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:08.760 President of the United States. 0:17:09.200 --> 0:17:11.680 It strikes me that the balance that we've had between 0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:15.680 hard power and soft power in economic power, isn't that 0:17:15.760 --> 0:17:19.080 the equilibriument was that before? Do you agree with that? 0:17:19.160 --> 0:17:20.960 How much of a problem is it that we have 0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:24.720 an administration that six months in has leaned very heavily 0:17:24.760 --> 0:17:27.080 on airstrikes and using hard power to solve some of 0:17:27.080 --> 0:17:31.840 these problems, while it's been cutting State Department, USCID, other 0:17:31.880 --> 0:17:32.360 foreign aid. 0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:36.800 I've been a long believer and that while the Cold 0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:39.960 War was fought against the biggest the backdrop of the 0:17:39.960 --> 0:17:43.440 biggest arms race in the history of the world, because 0:17:43.480 --> 0:17:48.159 we were able to avoid a direct military conflict, that 0:17:48.240 --> 0:17:53.879 conflict was resolved by non military instruments of power economics, technology, 0:17:54.520 --> 0:18:03.480 strategic communications, development assistance, ideology, intelligence, and so the most 0:18:03.480 --> 0:18:09.480 powerful of those are economics and technology, and we are 0:18:09.760 --> 0:18:13.080 very good at using those. I wish we could use 0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:20.040 them more in harness with one another of tariffs, trade sanctions, 0:18:20.640 --> 0:18:23.680 and so on, because in some cases one might work 0:18:23.720 --> 0:18:27.359 better than the other. But we kind of use them independently, 0:18:27.440 --> 0:18:30.840 and I think we diminish their effectiveness that way. But economic, 0:18:31.080 --> 0:18:34.119 with our economic power, that is a big deal, and 0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:37.919 we're seeing that in relationship, particularly with China and Russia 0:18:38.000 --> 0:18:43.080 right now. I think on strategic communications and foreign assistance. 0:18:43.560 --> 0:18:46.320 You know, the Chinese under who Jentaal invested like seven 0:18:46.520 --> 0:18:49.720 billion dollars in strategic communication. There isn't a country in 0:18:49.760 --> 0:18:54.359 the world where you can't get Chinese television, Chinese radio, 0:18:54.520 --> 0:18:59.040 Chinese social media, Chinese print media, television, you name it, 0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:04.520 and they've spread all over the world. We're cutting everything back. 0:19:05.720 --> 0:19:08.199 Our voice will not be heard around the world. We 0:19:08.280 --> 0:19:12.360 can't tell the Keerge's why it's important not to let 0:19:12.400 --> 0:19:16.840 the Chinese have too much power in their country, or 0:19:17.080 --> 0:19:21.160 the Kazakhs, or people in the Middle East, or people 0:19:21.200 --> 0:19:24.720 in South America. I don't think we've used trade effectively. 0:19:25.119 --> 0:19:27.399 China is now the biggest trading partner with one hundred 0:19:27.400 --> 0:19:29.520 and twenty countries in the world, all the countries in 0:19:29.680 --> 0:19:33.760 South America except Columbia. So my problem is that we 0:19:33.840 --> 0:19:36.720 have all these tools that are really powerful for the 0:19:36.800 --> 0:19:40.680 United States, but we've decided to keep them in our backpack, 0:19:41.640 --> 0:19:44.280 and if we're to avoid a conflict with China, all 0:19:44.320 --> 0:19:48.840 these tools will matter in this long term contest. You know, 0:19:49.000 --> 0:19:51.159 the line is for the hearts and minds, but the 0:19:51.160 --> 0:19:54.240 fact is those hearts and minds also have security arrangements, 0:19:54.680 --> 0:19:59.480 their economic markets, their potential sources of instability and terrorism. 0:20:00.200 --> 0:20:03.399 So I think pulling back on all of those is 0:20:03.480 --> 0:20:07.760 really a mistake. Now that said, all of them are 0:20:07.760 --> 0:20:11.639 in serious need of reform. I mean, Congress is self 0:20:11.800 --> 0:20:15.879 dismantled USIA in nineteen ninety eight. They tried to dismantle 0:20:15.960 --> 0:20:19.840 USAID then, but Bill Clinton wouldn't let him, but he 0:20:20.040 --> 0:20:23.280 reduced the size and brought it inside the State Department. 0:20:24.000 --> 0:20:25.439 There are a lot of problems with a lot of 0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:30.080 the aid programs. You know, when the Millennium Challenge Corporation 0:20:30.240 --> 0:20:32.840 was established by Congress under the first President of second 0:20:32.880 --> 0:20:35.560 President Bush, there were a lot of conservatives who said, 0:20:35.640 --> 0:20:39.000 let's do that because of its rules in terms of accountability, 0:20:39.119 --> 0:20:42.240 local buy in, and so on. So one of the 0:20:42.240 --> 0:20:45.160 things that I'm trying to do through a Global Policy 0:20:45.240 --> 0:20:49.359 center affiliated with William and Mary is bring together people 0:20:49.359 --> 0:20:51.840 on both sides of the aisle and experts and say 0:20:51.920 --> 0:20:54.399 kind of what new path forward can we have in 0:20:54.440 --> 0:20:58.320 these different using these tools that gets away from all 0:20:58.320 --> 0:21:00.320 the mistakes of the past, gets away from all the 0:21:01.160 --> 0:21:04.320 bureaucracy and the barnacles of the past, and points a 0:21:04.359 --> 0:21:07.119 way forward to make us much more effective and cost 0:21:07.160 --> 0:21:08.719 effective in these programs. 0:21:11.480 --> 0:21:14.320 My conversation with former Defense Secretary of Robert Gates at 0:21:14.320 --> 0:21:29.600 the Aspen Security Forum continues after the break. In the 0:21:29.640 --> 0:21:31.960 final part of my interview with former Secretary of Defense 0:21:32.040 --> 0:21:35.320 Robert Gates, I circled back to China and the threat 0:21:35.359 --> 0:21:38.560 of the relationship between China and the US deteriorating further 0:21:38.960 --> 0:21:42.920 as President Trump wages a global trade war. You mentioned 0:21:42.920 --> 0:21:45.880 avoiding conflict with China at this moment. How much does 0:21:45.880 --> 0:21:48.320 that worry you? Do you think we're headed for it 0:21:48.560 --> 0:21:52.000 for conflict? What needs to be done to forestall that 0:21:52.040 --> 0:21:53.080 to prevent that from happening? 0:21:53.560 --> 0:21:59.560 Well, I mean, I don't think I'm fairly confident the 0:21:59.680 --> 0:22:02.720 leader of neither side want a war. It would be 0:22:02.760 --> 0:22:06.240 catastrophic for both sides. So the question is, how do 0:22:06.280 --> 0:22:09.760 you maneuver against each other over a period of decades 0:22:09.800 --> 0:22:12.720 as we did with the Soviet Union without it leading 0:22:12.760 --> 0:22:16.280 to war? And so I think we have to be 0:22:16.400 --> 0:22:20.680 very tough on China when it comes to intellectual property theft, 0:22:20.760 --> 0:22:23.200 when it comes to trade and some of these issues. 0:22:23.640 --> 0:22:25.320 I think we need to be tough in terms of 0:22:25.560 --> 0:22:28.680 their military deployments, some of the things they're doing around 0:22:28.720 --> 0:22:30.360 the world. But at the same time, I think it's 0:22:30.480 --> 0:22:34.000 essential that we maintain the dialogue with them, particularly military 0:22:34.040 --> 0:22:38.439 to military, to prevent incidents that could balloon into a 0:22:38.520 --> 0:22:42.159 conflict nobody wanted. So I think keeping a dialogue with 0:22:42.280 --> 0:22:45.760 them going is very important. I'm encouraged by the fact 0:22:45.800 --> 0:22:49.680 that President Trump and President she talk from time to time. 0:22:49.720 --> 0:22:51.919 I'm not sure they don't talk past each other, but 0:22:52.000 --> 0:22:56.840 that's okay. But I think maintaining those contacts, and I 0:22:56.880 --> 0:22:59.440 would say especially on the military to military side, is 0:22:59.480 --> 0:23:00.000 really important. 0:23:00.520 --> 0:23:03.439 We've talked a bit about the reform agenda. Maybe I 0:23:03.440 --> 0:23:06.520 can tease out your barnacle's metaphor. There was an effort 0:23:06.520 --> 0:23:08.800 in the early days of this term to really go 0:23:08.880 --> 0:23:11.240 after those barnacles in forests, and I think kind of 0:23:11.280 --> 0:23:13.159 blew up the hull of the ship maybe trying to 0:23:13.200 --> 0:23:16.880 do that. What's your council for doing it appropriately? Because 0:23:16.920 --> 0:23:19.760 we see with this administration in particular, a real sense 0:23:19.760 --> 0:23:23.119 of urgency a president who gets impatient, how do you 0:23:24.040 --> 0:23:26.159 do the kind of reform that you're describing in a 0:23:26.200 --> 0:23:29.840 thoughtful way, a careful way, and not have knock on 0:23:29.840 --> 0:23:31.880 effects that can be damaging to these institutions. 0:23:32.119 --> 0:23:36.200 So in two thousand and nine, in over a period 0:23:36.200 --> 0:23:41.399 of four months, in probably forty meetings with all the 0:23:41.440 --> 0:23:45.600 military leadership, the joint chiefs of staff, the combatant commanders, 0:23:46.119 --> 0:23:50.800 all the senior civilians, we examine I saw a budgetary 0:23:50.880 --> 0:23:54.840 train wreck coming after the financial crisis in two thousand 0:23:54.880 --> 0:23:58.520 and eight, and as I said, we've got to show 0:23:58.520 --> 0:24:02.560 some responsibility here and better we look at what can 0:24:02.600 --> 0:24:06.520 be cut than people who don't know what they're doing. No, 0:24:06.640 --> 0:24:11.600 I won't mention any names or institutions, and so we 0:24:11.840 --> 0:24:16.080 compiled a list of programs that were questionable and we 0:24:16.119 --> 0:24:20.480 went through it in these forty meetings. Bottom line, we 0:24:20.600 --> 0:24:25.479 ended up cutting thirty six legacy programs that, had they 0:24:25.560 --> 0:24:29.119 been built to completion, would have cost the taxpayers three 0:24:29.200 --> 0:24:33.600 hundred and thirty billion dollars. And we did it essentially 0:24:33.640 --> 0:24:38.480 without a ripple. Now, some companies weren't too happy, but 0:24:39.400 --> 0:24:42.120 that goes with the territory and then the next year 0:24:42.880 --> 0:24:47.639 facing the same challenges, same kind of meetings over a 0:24:47.640 --> 0:24:51.840 three month period, same number of meetings roughly, and the 0:24:51.880 --> 0:24:55.080 meetings weren't just to vent meetings were kind of is 0:24:55.080 --> 0:24:56.840 this a good idea, what do we need this for? 0:24:57.320 --> 0:24:59.760 Or to the Air Force, you want a new tanker, 0:25:00.080 --> 0:25:03.720 a miss a new ICBM, you want the F thirty five, 0:25:04.560 --> 0:25:06.680 and you've got to make a choice or two here, 0:25:07.600 --> 0:25:11.000 and the same thing with all the services. And but 0:25:11.080 --> 0:25:14.359 on the IF what we called the Efficiency Exercise overhead 0:25:14.600 --> 0:25:18.080 exercise in the spring of twenty ten, we identified one 0:25:18.160 --> 0:25:21.960