1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:10,959 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Tonight, so Russian explosive 2 00:00:11,039 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: drones slamming into. 3 00:00:12,360 --> 00:00:16,280 Speaker 2: Now to Israel issuing new evacuation orders in Gaza. Dozens 4 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:19,640 Speaker 2: of Palestinians were killed by Israeli fire as it waited 5 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:22,720 Speaker 2: for food in northern Gaza. With I am now striking back, 6 00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:25,840 Speaker 2: hiking tariffs on US goods arriving in China to one 7 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 2: hundred and twenty five percent, and tonight here American farmers 8 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 2: worry that China will now turn elsewhere. 9 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 1: I think that it's the most and many respects, the 10 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 1: most perilous time since the late forties, maybe ever. 11 00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 2: Robert Gates has had a storied career in national security. 12 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:48,480 Speaker 1: Of the eight presidents I worked for, five were Republicans, 13 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 1: three were Democrats. Ironically, my career was bookended by two Democrats, 14 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 1: Lyndon Johnson and Barack Obama. 15 00:00:56,560 --> 00:01:00,120 Speaker 2: Over many decades of public service, Gates served as Secretary 16 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 2: of Defense for two presidents consecutively and as the director 17 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 2: of the CIA. And Since Gates left government in twenty eleven, 18 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 2: he has remained influential as an author and as an advisor. 19 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 2: Then President Electrump sought Gates's Council before he started his 20 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 2: first term and today Gates runs a strategic consulting firm 21 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 2: with President George W. Bush's Secretary of State Condaleza Rice, 22 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 2: alongside other officials from the Bush administration. I wanted to 23 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:33,319 Speaker 2: get Gates's perspective on this perilous moment in history, as 24 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 2: he put it. I wanted to hear about what he's 25 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 2: watching closely, what worries him, and what's at stake for 26 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:44,760 Speaker 2: the world. I'm David Gera, and this is the big 27 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 2: take from Bloomberg News today on the show My conversation 28 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:51,559 Speaker 2: with former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. I sat down 29 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 2: with him away from Washington in Colorado at the Aspen 30 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 2: Security Forum. This is one of several interviews I did 31 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:00,160 Speaker 2: there with some of the biggest names in for we're 32 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 2: in policy and national security. We'll share those with you 33 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:11,640 Speaker 2: over the next few weeks. I wanted to ask you, first, 34 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:14,960 Speaker 2: given your experience and your knowledge of history, how you're 35 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 2: thinking about this moment. 36 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:18,639 Speaker 1: Well, first of all, I think that it's the most 37 00:02:20,160 --> 00:02:25,440 Speaker 1: and respects the most perilous time since the late forties, 38 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:32,639 Speaker 1: maybe ever. We have never confronted aggressive, nuclear armed great 39 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 1: powers in both Asia and Europe. At the same time, 40 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 1: we have a major war going on in Europe, major 41 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:45,680 Speaker 1: war going on in the Middle East, threatened war in Asia. 42 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 1: And this all comes at a time when we as 43 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 1: Americans are divided about our role in the world, about 44 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 1: our politics, about everything else, and lots of things that 45 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:05,760 Speaker 1: need fixing aren't getting fixed, from the deficit and the 46 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 1: debt to figuring out once again how to do military construction, 47 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 1: how to rebuild defense industries. So it's a pretty tough time. 48 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:23,080 Speaker 1: It's also a time of you know, it's been hyped 49 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 1: and headlined and everything, but it really is kind of 50 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 1: an inflection point in terms of taking a hard, cold 51 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 1: look at our government and seeing how we can do 52 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 1: it better. As I like to put it, in any 53 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 1: institution over decades, barnacles, film build up. It's true of 54 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 1: every organization I've led, CIA, boy Scouts, Texas, A and 55 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:56,680 Speaker 1: M and Defense. And the challenge for a leader is 56 00:03:56,680 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 1: how do you preserve the tradition and the culture that 57 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: made the institutions great in the first place, but scrape 58 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 1: off all those barnacles and make the reforms that are 59 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 1: needed to be successful in the future. I think that's 60 00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 1: the challenge and I don't think we're facing it very well. 61 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 2: I'm going to ask you about a few of these 62 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 2: military conflicts that are ongoing in a moment, but first 63 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 2: I want to ask you about the trade war, and 64 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:23,480 Speaker 2: we focus a lot on the economic ramifications of that, 65 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 2: what it's going to mean for trading relationships. How do 66 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 2: you see that in the context of national security? How 67 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:35,159 Speaker 2: does waging this war stand to change the relationships between yes, 68 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 2: trading partners, but nation states as well. 69 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:42,360 Speaker 1: So interestingly, I think the trade imbalances actually began as 70 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:46,119 Speaker 1: a national security matter, and that was after the war. 71 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 1: The United States gave huge trade advantages to Germany and Japan, 72 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 1: but also the Europeans trying to recover from the war, 73 00:04:57,440 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 1: and we actually basically said, we'll take make a hit 74 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 1: economically because it's really important for our security for these 75 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:07,520 Speaker 1: countries to get back up on their feet, have a 76 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 1: working economy. That's what's going to keep the communists out. 77 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 1: Work pretty well. But we never turned back to those 78 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:20,239 Speaker 1: advantages that we had given, and over the years, those 79 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:25,520 Speaker 1: disadvantages piled up against the United States, and nobody really 80 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 1: wanted to take them on because obviously, with our allies 81 00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 1: that was a very sensitive subject. And then with the 82 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:39,479 Speaker 1: advent of China into the WTO, it sort of put 83 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 1: rocket fuel behind these trade issues, and mainly because China 84 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:50,080 Speaker 1: didn't abide by the rules when China joined WTO, and 85 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:53,840 Speaker 1: we and other developed commentaries failed to hold them accountable. 86 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 1: This should have begun in two thousand and one, two 87 00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:59,640 Speaker 1: thousand and two saying you can't do that, you can't 88 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 1: seal that IP, you can't dump over here. There are 89 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 1: a lot of things you can't do. But we let 90 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:10,360 Speaker 1: it go. And so in a way, I would regard 91 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:13,279 Speaker 1: what's going on right now as kind of a reckoning 92 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:19,080 Speaker 1: to readdress the imbalances that have existed with some countries 93 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:22,720 Speaker 1: since after World War Two in the early fifties, and 94 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 1: then have built up since the creation of the WTO 95 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 1: and with China and so on. You know, are there 96 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:31,599 Speaker 1: better ways to do it? Maybe? But in some ways. 97 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:36,560 Speaker 1: Let me use the analogy of the Europeans decisions on 98 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:41,280 Speaker 1: arms control, on arms build up, on defense spending, I, 99 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 1: among many many others berated the Europeans for years, decades 100 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:50,360 Speaker 1: to increase their defense spending, and we had no luck. 101 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:56,920 Speaker 1: We literally failed. So incomes President Trump with his two 102 00:06:56,920 --> 00:07:01,360 Speaker 1: by four and he's got their attention, and guess what, 103 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:05,440 Speaker 1: they've decided that they will spend more on defense. Now 104 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 1: he had I think a lot of help from Putin, 105 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 1: from Vladimir Putin, who may not scare the American people, 106 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 1: but he sure scares the Europeans. So I think we're 107 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 1: kind of reckoning with both in terms of trade but 108 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:24,679 Speaker 1: also defense spending on the part of the Europeans of 109 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:30,280 Speaker 1: readdressing or addressing problems that have been long extant, but 110 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 1: we really haven't had the political fortitude or the willingness 111 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:37,560 Speaker 1: to potentially offend people to take them on. 112 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 2: The war in Gaza has gone on now for more 113 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 2: than six hundred and fifty days, and I wonder how 114 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 2: you see the path forward to resolution. Is it evident 115 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:49,720 Speaker 2: to you how long is this going to last? 116 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 1: You think, well, I hear people betting on different times. 117 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:55,120 Speaker 1: You know, will it end this year? Whenever? Well, the 118 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 1: fastest way for it would end would be for Hamas 119 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 1: to own up to the fact that they destroyed Gaza. 120 00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 1: Their attack on October seventh began all of this, and 121 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:11,360 Speaker 1: they created an environment in which Israel said enough is enough, 122 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 1: and we're not going to put up with these attacks. 123 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:16,320 Speaker 1: Every few years. We're going to solve this problem one 124 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:20,080 Speaker 1: way or another. Now, ideally you would have some kind 125 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 1: of political entity for the Palestinians that would have some 126 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:31,320 Speaker 1: credibility internationally, if not with Israel. And that can't be 127 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 1: the Palestinian authority in the West Bank, which everybody knows 128 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 1: is corrupt and incompetent to boot. So where are the 129 00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 1: Palestinians finally leaders to say enough is enough, we need 130 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 1: to start rebuilding Gaza. And I personally think this thing will, 131 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 1: this horrible thing will come to an end when Hamas 132 00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 1: finally concludes they can't win, They're not winning support abroad, 133 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 1: and their people are being destroyed. 134 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:08,600 Speaker 2: Benjamin Natnewe, who is somebody you know and have dealt 135 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 2: with over these many years. What have you noticed or 136 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 2: observed about his behavior in this conflict and how much 137 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 2: is that path the resolution going to be shaped by 138 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 2: his political fortunes. 139 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:21,439 Speaker 1: Well, I've known Bibe a long time and we've had 140 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:24,080 Speaker 1: our disagreements along the way. I think it's fair to say, 141 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:28,840 Speaker 1: but I will give Natanian who credit for this. Since 142 00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 1: October seventh, he has trained the strategic environment in the 143 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:37,560 Speaker 1: Middle East in a very significant way. Iran counted on 144 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 1: its surrogates, his Belah Hamas, the whose the tribesmen in 145 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 1: northern Iraq and others to intimidate others in the region 146 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 1: and to attack Israel and taking advantage of that attack 147 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 1: or in response to that attack, Natanie Who and I 148 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:57,520 Speaker 1: think the Israelis in general said enough, and so they 149 00:09:57,600 --> 00:10:01,079 Speaker 1: went after his Belah. They went after Hamas. They certainly 150 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:04,240 Speaker 1: played a role in the overthrow of Asad. His Bilah 151 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 1: can't be rearmed now because that path was through Syria 152 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 1: from Iran and dramatically weaken Iran, first through the initial 153 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:15,960 Speaker 1: attack and then through the more recent one that involved 154 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:19,680 Speaker 1: the United States. So I think Iran is very much 155 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 1: on its back foot at this point. Whether we've long 156 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 1: term solved any problems, I think remains to be seen. 157 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:29,280 Speaker 1: But in Atia, Who's made it pretty clear that if 158 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 1: the Iranians resumed that nuclear program, he'll go back in 159 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:35,840 Speaker 1: and as he puts it, mow the grass you were not. 160 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 1: But the bottom line is the strategic environment in the 161 00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:45,040 Speaker 1: whole region has been changed subsequent to October seventh, And 162 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:47,760 Speaker 1: the truth is, if some kind of a solution can 163 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 1: be found for the Palestinians, then I think the opportunities 164 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 1: in terms of Israel, Saudi Arabia, the other Arab states 165 00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 1: beyond the UAE and Cutter and so on, are really 166 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:03,760 Speaker 1: pretty extraordinary. These guys are all interested in business. They 167 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 1: want to expand, they want investment, they want to diversify 168 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 1: their economy. They see Israel as a technological giant in 169 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:13,959 Speaker 1: the region, so there's a lot of potential there, but 170 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:16,840 Speaker 1: they've got to get past the Palestinian problem. 171 00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:20,160 Speaker 2: You were not somebody who was agitating for strikes on 172 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:23,720 Speaker 2: nuclear facilities in Iran, And as the dust settles on 173 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 2: those strikes, how do you gauge their efficacy and where 174 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:28,040 Speaker 2: does that lead? Do you think? 175 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 1: Well, this verse came up when I was Secretary of 176 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 1: Defense under President Bush so back in two thousand and seven, 177 00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, I said, you know, there's no 178 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:40,360 Speaker 1: doubt we can do a lot of damage to those facilities. 179 00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: And they hadn't started going really deep at that point, 180 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:46,720 Speaker 1: but I said, and my position from then until today 181 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:53,080 Speaker 1: has been, you can significantly damage and set back Iran's 182 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:58,200 Speaker 1: nuclear program, but you cannot eliminate it militarily. They can't 183 00:11:58,320 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 1: unlearn what they've already learned. The Israelis are now saying 184 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 1: that they probably scattered the enriched uranium at three sites Esfahan, 185 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 1: Fordoh and the Tons, so they probably have some of 186 00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 1: that and they have some suit centrifuges. My view for 187 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 1: what I was telling President Bush fifteen years ago was 188 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:21,920 Speaker 1: you can damage it, but you can't destroy it. You're 189 00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:25,760 Speaker 1: just buying time, and the question is whether the time 190 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:28,959 Speaker 1: that has been bought can be translated into some kind 191 00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:29,640 Speaker 1: of an agreement. 192 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:36,200 Speaker 2: My conversation with former Defense Secretary Robert Gates continues after 193 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:49,560 Speaker 2: the break. After former Defense Secretary Robert Gates and I 194 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 2: discussed the trade war and the war in Gaza, we 195 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 2: turned to another major conflict playing out today in Ukraine. 196 00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:59,959 Speaker 2: How do you see President Putin's calculus in that convent? 197 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 2: We see the economic vice the country is in, the 198 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:05,840 Speaker 2: incredible loss of life. Where do you see all of 199 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:06,320 Speaker 2: that headed? 200 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:10,319 Speaker 1: I think Putin is not all that difficult to understand. 201 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:15,360 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin believes it is his personal destiny to recreate 202 00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 1: the Russian Empire, and as my old mentorist Big Brzhenski 203 00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:23,440 Speaker 1: used to say, there can be no Russian Empire without Ukraine. 204 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:28,240 Speaker 1: And so Putin sees it as his personal destiny to 205 00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:32,200 Speaker 1: bring Ukraine back into the fold of the Russian Empire, 206 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 1: if not as an integral part of Russia, then as 207 00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 1: a client state basically does what Russia wants it to. 208 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 1: And his objectives have not changed from day one. He 209 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:46,760 Speaker 1: wants the four provinces in the East, he wants Ukraine disarmed, 210 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:50,360 Speaker 1: he wants a pro Russian government in Kiev. He wants 211 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:54,600 Speaker 1: a ban on Ukrainian membership in NATO and the EU. 212 00:13:55,679 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 1: That's all. And he hasn't waivered one whit from the 213 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 1: very beginning, and he is willing to pay whatever price 214 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:05,680 Speaker 1: is involved. And it is beginning to bite. There was 215 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:08,560 Speaker 1: a sugar rush from a lot of the defense industries 216 00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:10,960 Speaker 1: investments and a lot of the things coming from China 217 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:13,240 Speaker 1: and so on. But I think they've run through that. 218 00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 1: The inflation is really beginning to ramp up twenty one 219 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 1: percent interest rates, that's just a formal interest rate, who 220 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:23,960 Speaker 1: knows what the real one is. Things are getting life's 221 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 1: getting a little harder in Russia. So I don't see 222 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 1: any breakthroughs. That's one of those predictions that may turn 223 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:35,640 Speaker 1: out to be very embarrassing. But the Ukrainians have been 224 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 1: able to hold their ground pretty well in the East, 225 00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 1: as it's kind of a drone versus drone war out there. 226 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:46,600 Speaker 1: But Putin is clearly putting the pressure on the domestic 227 00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:50,560 Speaker 1: side in Ukraine with these attacks by hundreds of drones 228 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 1: every single night. 229 00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 2: What did you make of what seemed like a change 230 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:58,320 Speaker 2: in tack from President Trump a few days ago. Seems 231 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 2: to be growing frustrated with President Putin. There was a 232 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:02,320 Speaker 2: lot of talk about them meeting and having a summit, 233 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:05,760 Speaker 2: negotiating this themselves. His patient seems to being tested here. 234 00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 1: Most of the presidents that I worked with felt that, 235 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:11,880 Speaker 1: I mean, they got themselves elected president of the United States. 236 00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 1: They basically feel like they can win anybody over. I've 237 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 1: seen it Withn't Benny, and you know it started with 238 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:21,800 Speaker 1: Franklin Roosevelt and Uncle Joe Stalin. You know, I can 239 00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 1: win this guy over. And a lot of presidents feel 240 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:29,040 Speaker 1: that way, that they can develop a personal chemistry with 241 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:33,680 Speaker 1: the other guy that will make great things possible, and 242 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:36,960 Speaker 1: most of them end up disappointed. And I think that's 243 00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:40,800 Speaker 1: what's happened here. I don't think President Trump was unique 244 00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 1: in thinking he could bring Puton around, nor is he 245 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:47,480 Speaker 1: unique in being disappointed. 246 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:50,400 Speaker 2: The president has Steve Witkoff his friend, a businessman, not 247 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 2: somebody who was in the foreign service or a diplomat 248 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 2: before leading the negotiations that he's been having with Russia 249 00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:59,440 Speaker 2: with President Putin. Do you see wisdom in that using 250 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 2: somebody who doesn't have that font of experience from government 251 00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 2: and diplomacy, or does it raise questions for you about 252 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 2: how approaching well. 253 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 1: Lots of different presidents use lots of different techniques. When 254 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:14,000 Speaker 1: we were first starting to reach out to the Soviet 255 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:19,000 Speaker 1: Union and to the Chinese and so on, US businessmen 256 00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 1: would be used as intermediaries to carry the message, if 257 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:29,000 Speaker 1: you will. I think that other presidents have used special envoys. 258 00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 1: President Obama liked special envoys and he had a bunch 259 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 1: of them. I personally have found there are a few 260 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:39,440 Speaker 1: instances where those of work. So on the Northern Ireland 261 00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 1: problem George Mitchell, that worked out pretty well. But on 262 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 1: Afghanistan Pakistan Richard Holbrook, that didn't work. So I'm inclined 263 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 1: to give presidents a lot of leeway in the tools 264 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 1: that they want to use. And you know, it's always 265 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:58,960 Speaker 1: also the fact that when appointing ambassadors, I always thought 266 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:01,480 Speaker 1: it was most important to the host government, not that 267 00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:05,639 Speaker 1: they had somebody super experienced as the US ambassador, but 268 00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:07,639 Speaker 1: somebody who could pick up the telephone and call the 269 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:08,760 Speaker 1: President of the United States. 270 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:11,680 Speaker 2: It strikes me that the balance that we've had between 271 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:15,680 Speaker 2: hard power and soft power in economic power, isn't that 272 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:19,080 Speaker 2: the equilibriument was that before? Do you agree with that? 273 00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 2: How much of a problem is it that we have 274 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:24,720 Speaker 2: an administration that six months in has leaned very heavily 275 00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 2: on airstrikes and using hard power to solve some of 276 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 2: these problems, while it's been cutting State Department, USCID, other 277 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:32,360 Speaker 2: foreign aid. 278 00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 1: I've been a long believer and that while the Cold 279 00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:39,960 Speaker 1: War was fought against the biggest the backdrop of the 280 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:43,440 Speaker 1: biggest arms race in the history of the world, because 281 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:48,159 Speaker 1: we were able to avoid a direct military conflict, that 282 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:53,879 Speaker 1: conflict was resolved by non military instruments of power economics, technology, 283 00:17:54,520 --> 00:18:03,480 Speaker 1: strategic communications, development assistance, ideology, intelligence, and so the most 284 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:09,480 Speaker 1: powerful of those are economics and technology, and we are 285 00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 1: very good at using those. I wish we could use 286 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 1: them more in harness with one another of tariffs, trade sanctions, 287 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:23,680 Speaker 1: and so on, because in some cases one might work 288 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:27,359 Speaker 1: better than the other. But we kind of use them independently, 289 00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:30,840 Speaker 1: and I think we diminish their effectiveness that way. But economic, 290 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:34,119 Speaker 1: with our economic power, that is a big deal, and 291 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:37,919 Speaker 1: we're seeing that in relationship, particularly with China and Russia 292 00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:43,080 Speaker 1: right now. I think on strategic communications and foreign assistance. 293 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:46,320 Speaker 1: You know, the Chinese under who Jentaal invested like seven 294 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:49,720 Speaker 1: billion dollars in strategic communication. There isn't a country in 295 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:54,359 Speaker 1: the world where you can't get Chinese television, Chinese radio, 296 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:59,040 Speaker 1: Chinese social media, Chinese print media, television, you name it, 297 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 1: and they've spread all over the world. We're cutting everything back. 298 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:08,199 Speaker 1: Our voice will not be heard around the world. We 299 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:12,360 Speaker 1: can't tell the Keerge's why it's important not to let 300 00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:16,840 Speaker 1: the Chinese have too much power in their country, or 301 00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:21,160 Speaker 1: the Kazakhs, or people in the Middle East, or people 302 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 1: in South America. I don't think we've used trade effectively. 303 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:27,399 Speaker 1: China is now the biggest trading partner with one hundred 304 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:29,520 Speaker 1: and twenty countries in the world, all the countries in 305 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:33,760 Speaker 1: South America except Columbia. So my problem is that we 306 00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:36,720 Speaker 1: have all these tools that are really powerful for the 307 00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:40,680 Speaker 1: United States, but we've decided to keep them in our backpack, 308 00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:44,280 Speaker 1: and if we're to avoid a conflict with China, all 309 00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 1: these tools will matter in this long term contest. You know, 310 00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:51,159 Speaker 1: the line is for the hearts and minds, but the 311 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:54,240 Speaker 1: fact is those hearts and minds also have security arrangements, 312 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:59,480 Speaker 1: their economic markets, their potential sources of instability and terrorism. 313 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:03,399 Speaker 1: So I think pulling back on all of those is 314 00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:07,760 Speaker 1: really a mistake. Now that said, all of them are 315 00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:11,639 Speaker 1: in serious need of reform. I mean, Congress is self 316 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:15,879 Speaker 1: dismantled USIA in nineteen ninety eight. They tried to dismantle 317 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 1: USAID then, but Bill Clinton wouldn't let him, but he 318 00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:23,280 Speaker 1: reduced the size and brought it inside the State Department. 319 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:25,439 Speaker 1: There are a lot of problems with a lot of 320 00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 1: the aid programs. You know, when the Millennium Challenge Corporation 321 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:32,840 Speaker 1: was established by Congress under the first President of second 322 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 1: President Bush, there were a lot of conservatives who said, 323 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 1: let's do that because of its rules in terms of accountability, 324 00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 1: local buy in, and so on. So one of the 325 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:45,160 Speaker 1: things that I'm trying to do through a Global Policy 326 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:49,359 Speaker 1: center affiliated with William and Mary is bring together people 327 00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:51,840 Speaker 1: on both sides of the aisle and experts and say 328 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:54,399 Speaker 1: kind of what new path forward can we have in 329 00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:58,320 Speaker 1: these different using these tools that gets away from all 330 00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 1: the mistakes of the past, gets away from all the 331 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:04,320 Speaker 1: bureaucracy and the barnacles of the past, and points a 332 00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:07,119 Speaker 1: way forward to make us much more effective and cost 333 00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:08,719 Speaker 1: effective in these programs. 334 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:14,320 Speaker 2: My conversation with former Defense Secretary of Robert Gates at 335 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 2: the Aspen Security Forum continues after the break. In the 336 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:31,960 Speaker 2: final part of my interview with former Secretary of Defense 337 00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:35,320 Speaker 2: Robert Gates, I circled back to China and the threat 338 00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:38,560 Speaker 2: of the relationship between China and the US deteriorating further 339 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:42,920 Speaker 2: as President Trump wages a global trade war. You mentioned 340 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:45,880 Speaker 2: avoiding conflict with China at this moment. How much does 341 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,320 Speaker 2: that worry you? Do you think we're headed for it 342 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:52,000 Speaker 2: for conflict? What needs to be done to forestall that 343 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:53,080 Speaker 2: to prevent that from happening? 344 00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 1: Well, I mean, I don't think I'm fairly confident the 345 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:02,720 Speaker 1: leader of neither side want a war. It would be 346 00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:06,240 Speaker 1: catastrophic for both sides. So the question is, how do 347 00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:09,760 Speaker 1: you maneuver against each other over a period of decades 348 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,720 Speaker 1: as we did with the Soviet Union without it leading 349 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:16,280 Speaker 1: to war? And so I think we have to be 350 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:20,680 Speaker 1: very tough on China when it comes to intellectual property theft, 351 00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:23,200 Speaker 1: when it comes to trade and some of these issues. 352 00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 1: I think we need to be tough in terms of 353 00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:28,680 Speaker 1: their military deployments, some of the things they're doing around 354 00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:30,360 Speaker 1: the world. But at the same time, I think it's 355 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:34,000 Speaker 1: essential that we maintain the dialogue with them, particularly military 356 00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:38,439 Speaker 1: to military, to prevent incidents that could balloon into a 357 00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:42,159 Speaker 1: conflict nobody wanted. So I think keeping a dialogue with 358 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:45,760 Speaker 1: them going is very important. I'm encouraged by the fact 359 00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:49,680 Speaker 1: that President Trump and President she talk from time to time. 360 00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:51,919 Speaker 1: I'm not sure they don't talk past each other, but 361 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 1: that's okay. But I think maintaining those contacts, and I 362 00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:59,440 Speaker 1: would say especially on the military to military side, is 363 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:00,000 Speaker 1: really important. 364 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,439 Speaker 2: We've talked a bit about the reform agenda. Maybe I 365 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:06,520 Speaker 2: can tease out your barnacle's metaphor. There was an effort 366 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:08,800 Speaker 2: in the early days of this term to really go 367 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,240 Speaker 2: after those barnacles in forests, and I think kind of 368 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:13,159 Speaker 2: blew up the hull of the ship maybe trying to 369 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,880 Speaker 2: do that. What's your council for doing it appropriately? Because 370 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:19,760 Speaker 2: we see with this administration in particular, a real sense 371 00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:23,119 Speaker 2: of urgency a president who gets impatient, how do you 372 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,159 Speaker 2: do the kind of reform that you're describing in a 373 00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 2: thoughtful way, a careful way, and not have knock on 374 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:31,880 Speaker 2: effects that can be damaging to these institutions. 375 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:36,200 Speaker 1: So in two thousand and nine, in over a period 376 00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:41,399 Speaker 1: of four months, in probably forty meetings with all the 377 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 1: military leadership, the joint chiefs of staff, the combatant commanders, 378 00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:50,800 Speaker 1: all the senior civilians, we examine I saw a budgetary 379 00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 1: train wreck coming after the financial crisis in two thousand 380 00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:58,520 Speaker 1: and eight, and as I said, we've got to show 381 00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:02,560 Speaker 1: some responsibility here and better we look at what can 382 00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 1: be cut than people who don't know what they're doing. No, 383 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:11,600 Speaker 1: I won't mention any names or institutions, and so we 384 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:16,080 Speaker 1: compiled a list of programs that were questionable and we 385 00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:20,480 Speaker 1: went through it in these forty meetings. Bottom line, we 386 00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:25,479 Speaker 1: ended up cutting thirty six legacy programs that, had they 387 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:29,119 Speaker 1: been built to completion, would have cost the taxpayers three 388 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:33,600 Speaker 1: hundred and thirty billion dollars. And we did it essentially 389 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 1: without a ripple. Now, some companies weren't too happy, but 390 00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:42,120 Speaker 1: that goes with the territory and then the next year 391 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:47,639 Speaker 1: facing the same challenges, same kind of meetings over a 392 00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:51,840 Speaker 1: three month period, same number of meetings roughly, and the 393 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:55,080 Speaker 1: meetings weren't just to vent meetings were kind of is 394 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:56,840 Speaker 1: this a good idea, what do we need this for? 395 00:24:57,320 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 1: Or to the Air Force, you want a new tanker, 396 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,720 Speaker 1: a miss a new ICBM, you want the F thirty five, 397 00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:06,680 Speaker 1: and you've got to make a choice or two here, 398 00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:11,000 Speaker 1: and the same thing with all the services. And but 399 00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:14,359 Speaker 1: on the IF what we called the Efficiency Exercise overhead 400 00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:18,080 Speaker 1: exercise in the spring of twenty ten, we identified one 401 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:21,960 Speaker 1: hundred and eighty billion dollars in overhead cuts in the military. 402 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:25,000 Speaker 1: Over a period of about five years. We eliminated an 403 00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:28,400 Speaker 1: entire combatant command, Joint Forces man that it was Jim 404 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:31,360 Speaker 1: Madison's first four star job was to go. I sent 405 00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:35,240 Speaker 1: him down to dismantle that command. And we didn't have 406 00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,280 Speaker 1: any leakers. We didn't have people going to the hill 407 00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:39,440 Speaker 1: behind our backs. We didn't have we had a lot 408 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:42,840 Speaker 1: of support on the hill. You know, individual congressmen were 409 00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,800 Speaker 1: very much against things that we were doing that were 410 00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:51,240 Speaker 1: in their districts. That's that's life. But we did an 411 00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:56,560 Speaker 1: enormous amount of change and reform and really without any 412 00:25:56,680 --> 00:26:00,320 Speaker 1: without perturbing the force. As it were the gallery, he 413 00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,399 Speaker 1: didn't collapse, and nobody on the hill was calling for 414 00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 1: my head. So there is a way to reform these 415 00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:11,680 Speaker 1: institutions and to do so in a thoughtful way that 416 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:16,000 Speaker 1: involves a lot of people, that gets a lot of input, 417 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 1: gets a lot of suggestions, so that when a decision 418 00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 1: is made, even if it goes against you, well I've 419 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:26,560 Speaker 1: been respected. I got my chance to make my case. 420 00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:30,199 Speaker 1: My case didn't work, but at least I was in 421 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:34,359 Speaker 1: the room, so I think. And the other final point 422 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:38,080 Speaker 1: I'd make is my experience in leading organizations and leading 423 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:43,280 Speaker 1: change in organizations is that change imposed solely from the 424 00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:49,359 Speaker 1: top without any engagement below that are changes that walk 425 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,639 Speaker 1: out the door the day that boss leaves. If you 426 00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:58,760 Speaker 1: want sustainable change, change that lasts, you need to involve 427 00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:00,639 Speaker 1: the people who deliver the mission. 428 00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:08,440 Speaker 2: Mister Secretary, Thank you very much, h my pleasure. This 429 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,680 Speaker 2: is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura. 430 00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:14,320 Speaker 2: That was my conversation with former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, 431 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:16,760 Speaker 2: the first in a series of interviews I did with 432 00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,840 Speaker 2: some of the biggest names in national security and foreign policy. 433 00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:22,600 Speaker 2: We're bringing more of these conversations in the days ahead. 434 00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:24,679 Speaker 2: Make sure you're following the Big Take so you can 435 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,199 Speaker 2: hear them all. To get unlimited access to all of 436 00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:30,680 Speaker 2: bloomberg dot com, subscribe today at Bloomberg dot com Slash 437 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:34,120 Speaker 2: Podcast offer. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.