WEBVTT - Thomas Taw on the Markets (Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>Let's say good morning to Thomas Ta ahead of a

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<v Speaker 1>pack I share his investment strategy at black Rock. Thomas

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<v Speaker 1>pretty decent rally now that we've seen through the month

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<v Speaker 1>of July a couple of wobbles, But I think you

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<v Speaker 1>have to say that it's it's starting to raise questions

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<v Speaker 1>about whether or not this really is a bear market

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<v Speaker 1>rally or whether something bigger is at hand. Your thoughts, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>good morning, Happy Friday. Uh And as you said, everything

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<v Speaker 1>is Rosalie again. Apparently it's been a very strong risk

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<v Speaker 1>on month, uh, for particularly for US equities, not so

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<v Speaker 1>much for for Chinese equities. But yeah, I mean I

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<v Speaker 1>think for us not necessarily time to buy the dip here. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>I guess that's kind of the summary. You know. It's

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<v Speaker 1>one thing I would sort of mention is that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>going into this month, um, what we had seen from

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<v Speaker 1>positioning was very very pessimistic. I mean, we we've all

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<v Speaker 1>kind of seen the Bamel survey. And also in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of cash cash holdings that are around twenty high is overweights, sorry,

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<v Speaker 1>underweights on equities kind of the the the highest since

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand and eight. And when you look at also

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<v Speaker 1>et F flows like the majority of the inflow for

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<v Speaker 1>the first six months of the year all into short

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<v Speaker 1>duration treasuries, defensive equities TASH positions. So it kind of

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<v Speaker 1>makes sense that given we have seen a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>of a pullback in inflation and expectations on rate hikes,

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<v Speaker 1>that we see a bit of a risk rally here. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>let's talk about inflation and when we see peak inflation,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly as we're awaiting the key data coming through from

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<v Speaker 1>the U S Friday. Yeah. Well, I think one thing

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<v Speaker 1>to really mention is between April and June, before we

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<v Speaker 1>got that sort of nine percent cp I print, which

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<v Speaker 1>I've got a lot of press obviously, UM, we saw

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<v Speaker 1>gasoline prices rise by about and I think that one

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<v Speaker 1>of the one of the issues that the FED have

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<v Speaker 1>had is that obviously US consumers are very sensitive to

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<v Speaker 1>that UM and so I think since we've seen a

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<v Speaker 1>pretty significant pullback in gas, oil, commodities, etcetera, that's giving

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<v Speaker 1>the FED another Central Banks a little bit more lee

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<v Speaker 1>way to be slightly less hawk ish than they have been.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, for us, we still don't think that

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<v Speaker 1>a soft landing is really possible. So we are kind

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<v Speaker 1>of getting to that neutral rate where the FED and

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<v Speaker 1>other central banks have to decide whether they want to

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<v Speaker 1>quell inflation or whether they want to support growth. So

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<v Speaker 1>that's where we are now. I wanted to slip in

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<v Speaker 1>a quick question on China, and we saw from the

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<v Speaker 1>Polar Bureau yesterday. One key line was the leadership calling

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<v Speaker 1>an officials to ensure that housing projects get completed. It

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<v Speaker 1>seems like it really touched a nerve with people out

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<v Speaker 1>there boycotting their mortgages. Yeah, so, I mean, I think

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<v Speaker 1>the very interesting from that statement was that they're obviously

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<v Speaker 1>looking for local governments to sort of shoulder that main responsibility,

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<v Speaker 1>and they've sort of said, you know, we're not going

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<v Speaker 1>to We're not gonna give us give some kind of

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<v Speaker 1>the Zuker stimulus to support the housing sector. So um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I think that remains one of the key risks,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly in the fixed income market for investors. Uh, it

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<v Speaker 1>is quite a difficult time to be investing in China

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<v Speaker 1>for US neutral. Uh. The other thing that came out

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<v Speaker 1>of that was no no shift on COVID zero strategy,

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<v Speaker 1>which which is really top of top of mind for

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<v Speaker 1>foreign investors when looking at China. So let's talk more

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<v Speaker 1>about what you're expecting in moves in China equities in

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<v Speaker 1>the second half. Brian was talking about the Politburo signaling

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<v Speaker 1>no big stimulus despite the slowdown and these concerns that

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<v Speaker 1>those mortgage boycourts could damage the second half recovery. But

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<v Speaker 1>do you still see some potential for China shares well?

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<v Speaker 1>The answer I guess long term is yes. I think

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<v Speaker 1>in the in the shorter term tactically, you know, I

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<v Speaker 1>think there's a preference for US for offshore sort of

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<v Speaker 1>China technology type companies, just because in terms of the

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<v Speaker 1>the things that you just mentioned around um policy, mortgages,

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<v Speaker 1>et cetera, none of that is really impacting China technology,

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<v Speaker 1>and also from evaluation perspective, it just looks quite interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, we were kind of looking for more

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<v Speaker 1>policy going into National Party Congress in October November. We're

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<v Speaker 1>still kind of sitting on the sidelines waiting for that. So,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I think the the offshore a foreign sentiment

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<v Speaker 1>towards China is very very barish at the moment. So

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<v Speaker 1>hopefully we can get some some bear market rally, but

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<v Speaker 1>at the moment, pessimism is quite high. The proposed Ali

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<v Speaker 1>Baba primary listing in Hong Kong may may pave the

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<v Speaker 1>way for a lot more companies to do it. About

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<v Speaker 1>fifteen other Chinese companies have secondary listings here that might

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<v Speaker 1>do the same, That could juice up the flows a

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<v Speaker 1>lot coming in from China. Now, we don't know if

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<v Speaker 1>all of them will qualify to be included in the

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<v Speaker 1>stock connect, but it would it would seem to support

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<v Speaker 1>your point that there's some opportunities there. Yeah, and and

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<v Speaker 1>this is something we've been looking at for a couple

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<v Speaker 1>of years. Right that the a d R declusion thing

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<v Speaker 1>is not is not new news, but certainly the Ali

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<v Speaker 1>baba Uh situation is quite interesting. Um. You know, I

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<v Speaker 1>think I think for us, for for for a foreign

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<v Speaker 1>investor perspective, it just looks a little bit more attractive

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<v Speaker 1>versus versus Onshore where you do have some more of

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<v Speaker 1>the issue of of continued lockdown, zero COVID strategy, the

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<v Speaker 1>property situation. Um. So yeah, I think that that's that's

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<v Speaker 1>kind of an area where I think investors should be

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<v Speaker 1>looking at. But you know, whether the tech regulation situation

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<v Speaker 1>is now finished, I think the answer is no, but

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's certainly peaked. So so we're gonna need

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<v Speaker 1>to see some some earnings come through, which will be

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<v Speaker 1>starting in the next couple of weeks, and maybe that

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<v Speaker 1>will be assigned post for investors to move back. When

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<v Speaker 1>we look more broadly at TAK, I mean we've had

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<v Speaker 1>warnings from the likes of Samsung, Eska, Hineks. We're looking

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<v Speaker 1>at the big players in the US too. How much

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<v Speaker 1>do the complications that we're seeing in the global economy Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 1>COVID lockdowns, higher inflation or way into I guess how

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<v Speaker 1>they're planning and whether or not consumers want to continue

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<v Speaker 1>to buy a lot of these gadgets. Yeah, I mean

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<v Speaker 1>it depends country to country. So you know, for for

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<v Speaker 1>are places like South Korea, Taiwan. You know, we've been

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<v Speaker 1>underweight those countries for the first half of the year.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh and also also for Q three, mostly because as

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<v Speaker 1>you mentioned, a really heavy reliance on technology growth some

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<v Speaker 1>of these companies Samsung, TSMC, for example, and as inflation

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<v Speaker 1>has kind of spiraled out beyond the control of central banks,

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<v Speaker 1>we've seen really aggressive rate hikes. I think in the

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<v Speaker 1>U s it's a little bit different, yes, and as

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<v Speaker 1>DAK is under performing year to date, but some of

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<v Speaker 1>these companies in the technology space are still seen by

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<v Speaker 1>investors as defensive. So we've kind of seen that as

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<v Speaker 1>a trend throughout the year, investors buying into some of

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<v Speaker 1>the large cap technology companies as kind of recession playbook, whereas,

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<v Speaker 1>as I mentioned, Korea, South Korea, Taiwan a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>different because they are so much more reliant on exports

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<v Speaker 1>and global growth. Just briefly, on a big broad question,

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<v Speaker 1>the FED fund futures is suggesting on three and a

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<v Speaker 1>quarter percent is where the Fed will get to when

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<v Speaker 1>it pauses. With the labor market this strong? Is that

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<v Speaker 1>the key? I mean, if the labor market stays this strong,

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<v Speaker 1>with the terminal rate b maybe a little bit higher,

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<v Speaker 1>I think so yes. I mean, you know we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>that tone or rid come lower over the last few weeks. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of it is being driven by inflation expectations. Obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>that's that's kind of the main worry for most investors.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, when you look at the forward rates

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<v Speaker 1>and projections of rate cuts into next year, that's basically

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<v Speaker 1>telling us that the market is expecting some kind of

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<v Speaker 1>recession if we're not already in one, and at some

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<v Speaker 1>point the Fed will pivot pivot policy and that should

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<v Speaker 1>be better for for risk markets. But in the meantime, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>they're so they're so bent on on calling inflation that

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<v Speaker 1>we we prefer not to buy the dip here, all right, Thomas,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you as always Thomas to ahead of a pack

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<v Speaker 1>I shares investment strategy at black Rock for from Hong Kong.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is Bloomberg