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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named best vetting podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: Without further ado, that's what the game's all about.

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Speaker 3: All of a sudden, you feel like you can't miss.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna leave it up there.

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Speaker 5: I could make that. If you try that again, that

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Speaker 5: absolutely not.

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Speaker 3: Trying to.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Matt Moore,

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Speaker 4: senior NBA writer. You can follow me on Twitter at

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Speaker 4: HP Basketball. Today's special NBA Edition episode. We have games,

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Speaker 4: we have scrimmages. There's actual basketball new sport being played.

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Speaker 4: It's so exciting. I sat down and watch Pacers Blazers.

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Speaker 4: There's no real reason for me to watch Pacers Blazers.

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Speaker 4: I just did it because I could. As such, we're

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Speaker 4: doing episodes to bring back the NBA season.

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Speaker 3: Today.

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Speaker 4: I'm joined by Seth Partnow from the Athletic longtime analysts.

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Speaker 4: He worked at Nylon Calculus, the site that I originally

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Speaker 4: set up back in the day. But more notably, he's

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Speaker 4: worked in NBA front offices as in the analytics department.

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Speaker 4: So Seth knows his way around numbers and he knows

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Speaker 4: his way around the NBA and gained valuable experience working

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Speaker 4: for the Milwaukee Bucks for a time and before rejoining

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Speaker 4: US working class writer shlubs down here beneath the Ivory Towers.

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Speaker 4: Seth's got great insights on all number of things, but

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Speaker 4: particularly we wanted to talk today about the impact of

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Speaker 4: schemes and numbers and sustainability and what studies have found

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Speaker 4: on various patterns to try and get an idea for

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Speaker 4: how we should be approaching betting for the NBA bubble resumption.

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Speaker 4: I'm really interested in the totals. I go back and

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Speaker 4: forth every single day. It seems like I go back

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Speaker 4: to the common kind of thread of the unders are

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Speaker 4: probably the smart play, and then go back the other

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Speaker 4: way to a more contrarian view. And so I needed

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Speaker 4: to have Seth on to get through all those kind

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Speaker 4: of subjects. We talk about the c we talk about

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Speaker 4: the raptors and all number of things. It's a great,

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Speaker 4: great conversation. Hope you enjoy it. Before you listen, make

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Speaker 4: sure you stop and go check out our app. If

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Speaker 4: This app is robust, it is smart, it is slick,

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Speaker 4: it is clean. I am not just saying that because

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Speaker 4: I am absolutely a company man in a shill. I

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Speaker 4: would absolutely recommend this even if I did not work

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Speaker 4: for the Action Network. It is by far the best

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Speaker 4: way to track games. I use it constantly.

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Speaker 5: I am not just saying that.

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Speaker 4: It is the fastest stats updating game tracker that I

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Speaker 4: All right, let's get started. Here's my conversation with Seth

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Speaker 4: part now from the Athletic let's kind of start here.

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Speaker 4: The question that has been debated a lot has been

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Speaker 4: are these games going to be more high tempo and

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Speaker 4: higher offensive efficiency, or because of the unfamiliarity of the surroundings,

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Speaker 4: everyone kind of being stilted and the fact that there's

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Speaker 4: little to no crowd noise, better communication that the under

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Speaker 4: will actually be the play. The books are shading to

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Speaker 4: the under by a couple of points. With regards to

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Speaker 4: the totals, not from a banting perspective, but just from

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Speaker 4: kind of your eye as an analyst. Will they reflect

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Speaker 4: the regular season more from a offensive or defensive standpoint?

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Speaker 2: So I actually wrote about this earlier this week a

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Speaker 2: little bit at the Athletic in terms of after a layoff,

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Speaker 2: we see that there's a several week kind of ramp

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Speaker 2: up of overall offensive rating across the season for whatever reason,

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Speaker 2: and I think it's you can basically just describe it

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Speaker 2: as teams start to play better as they get more familiarity,

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Speaker 2: jump shooting accuracy goes up, turnover rates go down kind

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Speaker 2: of as the season progresses, And really those first three

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Speaker 2: or four weeks of a season, so kind of the

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Speaker 2: seating games basically are that same timeframe in terms of tempo.

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Speaker 2: I don't have a strong prior belief either way, so

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Speaker 2: many things to think about. An additional one is kind

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Speaker 2: of the different levels of motivation that we might see,

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Speaker 2: especially as we start to get into like the fourth

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Speaker 2: and fifth games, as some of the teams start to

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Speaker 2: no longer be viable towards the play in so.

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Speaker 4: The offensive efficiency reflecting that start of the regular season,

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Speaker 4: I think is a compelling point. I think that that's

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Speaker 4: one that's that's hard to get around because I have

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Speaker 4: a hard time figuring out whether I'm being I've talked

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Speaker 4: about this with Dave d.

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Speaker 5: Four over at lock on Nuggets.

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Speaker 4: Actually I have a hard time figuring out whether I'm

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Speaker 4: being contrarian and talking myself into like if I'm using

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Speaker 4: confirmation by this or if I genuinely if my thinking

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Speaker 4: is sound. Here's kind of like my thought process one.

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Speaker 4: I think an empty environment actually increases a sense of

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Speaker 4: awkwardness in regards to like if you know your mic,

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Speaker 4: like how much more would you talk than you normally would?

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Speaker 4: And talking on defense has been like an issue for

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Speaker 4: like everybody, Like that's consistently a problem for a lot

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Speaker 4: of teams that they don't talk enough and they're not

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Speaker 4: able to communicate it them. My other thing is is

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Speaker 4: based off of the fact I asked Malone about this,

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Speaker 4: and I've heard a couple of other coaches mention it.

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Speaker 4: There's likely to be a simplification of play in terms

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Speaker 4: of they're going to call fewer set plays and they're

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Speaker 4: going to play more read offense. And if they do that,

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Speaker 4: there's two things that happen in one at once. One

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Speaker 4: there's probably like a smoothness I think more to the

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Speaker 4: offense because you're not you're not so worried about structure

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Speaker 4: and discipline as you are, like, Okay, it's not rolling

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Speaker 4: the ball out there and playing, but it kind of

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Speaker 4: reflects what the twenty fifteen Hawks did.

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Speaker 5: But there is I think a higher.

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Speaker 4: Level of turnover and that turnovers are obviously going to

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Speaker 4: lead to transition buckets the other way if they're live ball.

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Speaker 4: So those are kind of my ideas for why I'm

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Speaker 4: leaning towards the over as well as even if I'm

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Speaker 4: wrong and there's not going to be like a higher degree,

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Speaker 4: I think the books are over estimating those numbers and

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Speaker 4: I don't have them like out in front, it's only

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Speaker 4: been slight in terms of the numbers, like I think

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Speaker 4: the Jazz Pelican's number is actually relatively high, like that

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Speaker 4: one's actually been a pretty high total. But that's my

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Speaker 4: thought process is I think that there'll be awkwardness on

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Speaker 4: defense that will lead to at least not better communication.

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Speaker 4: I think that's a false number. And then I also

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Speaker 4: think that there will just be more of an attempt

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Speaker 4: to simplify things, which will increase turnovers. I think it'll

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Speaker 4: actually increase offensive efficiency a little bit. Is there anything

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Speaker 4: in there beyond like the you know, cold hard facts

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Speaker 4: that you have to refute me, you.

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Speaker 2: Know, the idea of going to a more flow offense,

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Speaker 2: I think that might increase scoring. From a point standpoint,

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Speaker 2: that's necessarily an efficiency standpoint, but from a point standpoint

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Speaker 2: in that I think that could that could cause for

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Speaker 2: an elevated pace just because you know, you're not coming

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Speaker 2: dribbling over half court, getting a call from the bench,

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Speaker 2: getting into set, blah blah blah. You're just coming down,

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Speaker 2: calling something on the fly and playing and if that,

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Speaker 2: you know, saves you know, a second here or second there.

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Speaker 2: We're talking about real possessions, right, So, if if that

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Speaker 2: kind of flow was going to increase scoring, I don't

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Speaker 2: think it would be on a on a efficiency basis.

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Speaker 3: I think it would be on a volume basis, which we.

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Speaker 5: Have the same effect on the totals, which would be right.

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Speaker 4: So that's not so we could both be right I

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Speaker 4: always enjoy when that happens. So here's one from your perspective,

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Speaker 4: having worked in a front office.

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Speaker 5: How much of.

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Speaker 4: Your priors would you keep for doing any sort of

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Speaker 4: if you were trying to develop some sort of model

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Speaker 4: to predict success for this whole thing, how much of

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Speaker 4: your priors would you keep and how much would you

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Speaker 4: try and like tweak and adjust going forward under these

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Speaker 4: kind of conditions?

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Speaker 5: Would you increase variants?

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Speaker 4: Like what does that kind of look like? Under these

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Speaker 4: conditions which are very very very weird.

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Speaker 3: You know?

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Speaker 2: I I almost feel like you run it straight and

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Speaker 2: manually adjust rather than trying to to keeping track of

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Speaker 2: your assumptions that you're you're you would be putting into

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Speaker 2: a model to to algorithmically adjust anything for here, I

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Speaker 2: would be very worried about about thumbing the scale, uh

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Speaker 2: in unintended ways.

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Speaker 3: If I if I started doing that, so you know,

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Speaker 3: uh yeah, I mean I might. I might see some.

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Speaker 2: Regression towards the mean in terms of, you know, if

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Speaker 2: someone's having an outlier shooting year, either good or bad,

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Speaker 2: I might adjust two closer to career norms. But beyond that,

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Speaker 2: like I, this is so out of any sort of

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Speaker 2: sample we have right that that I that that I

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Speaker 2: I would be very very worried about about over interpreting

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Speaker 2: even if I if I'm getting the signal of what's

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Speaker 2: what what what a mechanism is UH for for a change,

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Speaker 2: and how how games are playing, I would be very

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Speaker 2: worried about over and misinterpreting what the effect that's going

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Speaker 2: to be on on you know, what are what are

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Speaker 2: reasonably complex systems in terms of you know, an offensive

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Speaker 2: and defensive uh interaction on a possession.

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Speaker 4: Well, I talk a little bit of the Clippers because

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Speaker 4: they've been they continue to be baffling to me. I

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Speaker 4: watched like hundreds of clips of them on both ends

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Speaker 4: of the floor UH and wrote a big thing on

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Speaker 4: Action Network about them, And I think a lot of

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Speaker 4: what I end up getting back to is kind of

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Speaker 4: intangible stuff with them, where there's conversations about continuity and

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Speaker 4: one of the issues you know, you can talk about like, well,

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Speaker 4: they don't have any continuity. I think the bigger concern

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Speaker 4: for me with regard to continuity is they also don't

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Speaker 4: have any Like I.

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Speaker 5: Think they have chemistry issues as well.

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Speaker 4: Those were documented by the Athletic early in the year

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Speaker 4: that there was some tension with the new guys, and

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Speaker 4: I'm sure that some of that has been eased, but

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Speaker 4: they've never seemed like a team that just like loves

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Speaker 4: playing together and loves being around each other. They seem

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Speaker 4: like a bunch of professionals that happen to work for

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Speaker 4: the same company. And I think under these conditions you

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Speaker 4: need much more of a bunker type mentality because you're

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Speaker 4: literally bunker down. That's one of the reasons why I

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Speaker 4: tended lean towards the Lakers a little bit more as

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Speaker 4: well as I feel like the Lakers are a little

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Speaker 4: bit more comfortable in like they're not dependent on shooting

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Speaker 4: or variants as much as some other teams are. That

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Speaker 4: they don't need to get hot, they don't need like

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Speaker 4: they're going to play the same kind of approach that

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Speaker 4: they have. They're pretty versatile by all accounts in terms

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Speaker 4: of their defensive scheme. Between the Clippers and the Lakers

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Speaker 4: is where does your analysis kind of lead you in

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Speaker 4: regards to their overall success probability.

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Speaker 3: So it's an interesting question about sort of.

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Speaker 2: The the the continuity argument almost goes both ways here.

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Speaker 2: I mean, if you have a team that had kind

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Speaker 2: of bad team mojo kind of throughout the season, and

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Speaker 2: then they've been through the last four months and are

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Speaker 2: now back together and playing basketball. I think some of

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Speaker 2: that might resolve some of those issues. Just sort of

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Speaker 2: like either whatever, where the inciting events are so far

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Speaker 2: in the rear view mirror, or Okay, actually, we're playing basketball,

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Speaker 2: this is this is pretty okay, let's do this.

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Speaker 3: So I wouldn't put too much stock in that. And

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Speaker 3: also just from a from a stylistic standpoint, they are

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Speaker 3: a team that is.

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Speaker 2: Sort of built to be, uh, you know, to not

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Speaker 2: necessarily need a lot of flow, just because of you know,

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Speaker 2: you look at at their their most creative players are

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Speaker 2: guys who sort of play outside a system. And then

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Speaker 2: you know, in terms of Kawhi and Lou Williams, certainly

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Speaker 2: and to some degree Paul George can get a little

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Speaker 2: bit indulgent on the ball. Also, you know, they almost

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Speaker 2: are built to play almost an old style of find

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Speaker 2: a matchup work at basketball rather than a more flow

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Speaker 2: based style. So aesthetically it might not always look awesome,

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Speaker 2: but then Kawhi is still say from.

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Speaker 3: Experience, it's still isolating you to death a little bit.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, let's talk about Toronto. To continue the path of pain.

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Speaker 3: Thank you.

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Speaker 4: As I told my companions today that I can't wait

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Speaker 4: to find out exactly what game it is that the

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Speaker 4: Raptors are going to lose me a large sum of

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Speaker 4: money for the second.

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Speaker 5: Year in a row. I wanted to talk myself into them.

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Speaker 4: And I know that you have qualms about all numbers

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Speaker 4: of metrics that are out there, but I tend to

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Speaker 4: look at s energy sports as halfport offenses at least

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Speaker 4: like a starting point to get idea of like okay

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Speaker 4: versus you know, getting easy buckets, running out or just

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Speaker 4: running past guys that aren't trying, which you find a

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Speaker 4: lot in the regular season. If you're playing the Cabs

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Speaker 4: or the Hawks or teams of that caliber, you get

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Speaker 4: a higher level of engagement in the regular season. You

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Speaker 4: need to be able to execute versus a half court set.

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Speaker 4: And the Raptors are eighteenth. Now, I was using that

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Speaker 4: as a as an example of like, here's why I

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Speaker 4: think the Celtics can come out until I noticed that

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Speaker 4: the Celtics were sixteenth in that category.

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Speaker 5: I was like, well, there goes that.

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Speaker 4: There's a lot of confidence, Like the Raptors are actually

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Speaker 4: a pretty sexy pick amongst analyst to be like, you know,

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Speaker 4: like they won the title last year, they go that

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Speaker 4: better experience. Nick Nurse is probably the best coach in

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Speaker 4: the playoffs. I can't quite get there. I don't know why.

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Speaker 4: It's not that I like think Kyle Lowry is a

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Speaker 4: choking choker who chokes anymore like I think Nurse is awesome.

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Speaker 4: I love their defensive efficiency. I love their defense of versatility,

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Speaker 4: the way that they're able to like Nurse's willingness to

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Speaker 4: employ whatever strategy best tailors to his opponent, I think

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Speaker 4: is extremely valuable. But I just continue to look at

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Speaker 4: their offense and I'm just like, where are they going

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Speaker 4: to get the firepower to keep up with it? Like

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Speaker 4: how are they going to keep up in these series

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Speaker 4: versus the kind of weapons that they're going against.

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Speaker 5: And a lot of it's like Norman Powell.

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Speaker 4: Has become like a hyper crazy efficient score like his

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Speaker 4: numbers or outrageous, but I still can't quite believe it's

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Speaker 4: and there's enough numbers that I think that's one of

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Speaker 4: the things is I'm supposed to kind of disregard a

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Speaker 4: lot of the data outside of their overall record, which

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Speaker 4: was largely built by the way I'm beating crap teams

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Speaker 4: and I just have a hard time getting there. Do

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Speaker 4: I need to beat myself into submission on the Raptors

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Speaker 4: or is my thinking sound on this?

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Speaker 2: I think you're thinking a sound, and I think you

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Speaker 2: kind of hit on on the important point there is

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Speaker 2: if you look at record against kind of however you

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Speaker 2: want to find them contending teams, Raptors have been pretty

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Speaker 2: poor this year. They've they've done a really good job

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Speaker 2: of beating the teams they're supposed to beat.

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Speaker 3: And that's, you.

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Speaker 2: Know, laudable and good. But how much like as you said,

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Speaker 2: how much does you know running up and down and

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Speaker 2: confusing the calves mean environment?

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Speaker 3: Not much?

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Speaker 2: And that's you know, a lot of people who are

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Speaker 2: big on the Raptors point to the record with Marc Gasol.

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Speaker 2: All of their losses with Marc Gasol this year have

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Speaker 2: come against the the the the the the kind of

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Speaker 2: the top teams I want to say, against, you know,

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Speaker 2: the teams you would consider to be for these purposes,

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Speaker 2: I've mostly been taking like the top seven teams in

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Speaker 2: the West, all the teams who entering the bubble and

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Speaker 2: in playoff position except for the GRIZ and then the

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Speaker 2: top six in the East. And I want to say

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Speaker 2: that that that that sins Gasol came back or has

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Speaker 2: played even with him, they're like five and eight versus

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Speaker 2: those teams or or something like that. Apologies they don't

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Speaker 2: have in front of me, but it's it's like they're

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Speaker 2: they're a bunch of a bunch of o with Marc

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Speaker 2: Gasol against the dregs of the league and against the

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Speaker 2: good teams, they're still not great. Uh And and you

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Speaker 2: can see that on on both ends of the floor.

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Speaker 2: I think, uh, you paying attention to their half court offense.

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Speaker 2: I think that that's a I think that's a smart

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Speaker 2: place to start, maybe suggest using cleaning the class to

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Speaker 2: cut out garbage time from that.

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Speaker 3: But but it's it's gonna.

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Speaker 2: Come up with a similar you know you're gonna you're

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Speaker 2: gonna send yourself in a similar direction there in terms

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Speaker 2: of their they're kind of why they might be, you know,

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Speaker 2: out talented. Really you don't want to be too reductive

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Speaker 2: and say best player wins, But once they get to

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Speaker 2: the second round, which matchups do they have the do

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Speaker 2: they have much plausible best player in the series equity?

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Speaker 2: Like maybe you can talk yourself into Siakam over Tatum maybe,

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Speaker 2: but I don't think you. I don't think you can

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Speaker 2: say that against either Philly or Milwaukee. I mean assuming

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Speaker 2: that those are the those are the last four teams

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Speaker 2: in the second round, so that's the you know that

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Speaker 2: that puts them out of deficit right there as well.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Christian and Narsi over at b Ball Index was

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Speaker 4: kind of share than He's got an analysis that just

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Speaker 4: pulled the top thirteen teams and teams performance against those

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Speaker 4: top thirteen teams, and Toronto wound up. They went eleven

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Speaker 4: and fourteen, which is the second worst record in the

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Speaker 4: top ten, behind Dallas, and their net rating in those

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Speaker 4: games was actually behind Dallas. Like the top six teams

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Speaker 4: are all in the positive in terms of net rating,

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Speaker 4: including Denver, and then Dallas is slightly below and Toronto

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Speaker 4: is slightly below that.

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Speaker 5: So it's like Toronto.

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Speaker 4: Really did, like genuinely struggle with with elite teams, and

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Speaker 4: I think that that matters when it's like, okay, you know,

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Speaker 4: it's like, well, yeah, everybody struggles versus elite teams. Well,

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Speaker 4: first of all, Milwaukee didn't. They were plus five because

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Speaker 4: they're a super monster. Again, Boston was actually surprisingly great Boston.

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Speaker 4: Boston was only fourteen and thirteen, but they had a

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Speaker 4: net rating of plus three, which is the second best

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Speaker 4: in the league. Then you have the Clippers and Lakers,

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Speaker 4: the Rockets, and then the Nuggets all in the positive.

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Speaker 4: So to me, it's like, look, if you want to

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Speaker 4: be considered a monkst they're up there with Boston and

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Speaker 4: LA and the Clippers for being a threat, You're gonna

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Speaker 4: have to like actually beat these teams, and they just

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Speaker 4: keep getting I think, a lot of threat, a lot

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Speaker 4: of credit for last year's win, which I just keep

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Speaker 4: going back. I'm like, I'm not saying that it was

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Speaker 4: all Kawhi, because it wasn't. But I don't know how

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Speaker 4: you really like replace.

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Speaker 2: That, just to put a little bit of context on

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Speaker 2: on those records you gave. I've done research in the

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Speaker 2: past suggesting that to make the conference finals, essentially very

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Speaker 2: few teams I think the first Heat team that won

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Speaker 2: the championship and one other team that I forget off

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Speaker 2: the top of my head, have ever made the conference

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Speaker 2: finals playing less than forty four hundred ball against the

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Speaker 2: kind of those those top contender type teams in a season,

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Speaker 2: and the vast majority of conference finalists have played at

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Speaker 2: least five hundred ball against against those top teams, so

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Speaker 2: that that you know, as sort of cutoffs they So

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Speaker 2: I think that is a reasonable indicator to look at

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Speaker 2: for playoff success.

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Speaker 4: Well, I had to ask you, like this open ended question,

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Speaker 4: what do you think is the still area to really

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Speaker 4: discover truths about if we look at specifically, like let's.

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Speaker 5: Talk playoff basketball.

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Speaker 4: What is it that you don't think that we understand

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Speaker 4: and enough yet about playoff basketball?

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Speaker 2: So many things we because we live in sample size,

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Speaker 2: and playoffs both shrink sample size and give you a

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Speaker 2: completely biased sample sized side note, listeners, please don't say

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Speaker 2: that team is you know it has the third best

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Speaker 2: offense in the playoffs after the first round, because part

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Speaker 2: of the reason you use sort of those ratings is

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Speaker 2: against every team, and it's like, well, okay, we we

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Speaker 2: played you know, we played Orlando and you played Brooklyn,

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Speaker 2: So what are we actually comparing?

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Speaker 3: But I think that the big one really is I

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Speaker 3: don't think.

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Speaker 2: There's any reason to suspect that the transition to playoff

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Speaker 2: basketball will affect all players equally. We know it's going

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Speaker 2: to be harder games, both because the level of competition

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Speaker 2: is you know higher, I mean the you know.

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Speaker 3: The average the the the.

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Speaker 2: Average starter in the regular season is the fifteenth or

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Speaker 2: sixteenth best player at their position. In the playoffs, they're

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Speaker 2: the eighth. I mean, that's that's a big difference right there.

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00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,840
Speaker 2: But beyond that, the kind of the time to prep

402
00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:06,119
Speaker 2: between games, the time to prep specifically for one team,

403
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,760
Speaker 2: is a fundamental change to kind of how a game

404
00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:13,920
Speaker 2: flows and how it's how it's prepared and executed, and

405
00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:18,000
Speaker 2: weaknesses can get exploited and and strings can get muted.

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Speaker 2: I don't think we have really a good systemic way

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Speaker 2: of or systematic way of determining the kind of which players,

408
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:32,720
Speaker 2: which teams are more or less susceptible to bigger declines,

409
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Speaker 2: you know, heading into that kind of environment. It's of

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Speaker 2: course made more difficult by the fact that analysis, like

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Speaker 2: post factor analysis of that is hugely impacted by these

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Speaker 2: kinds of sample sizes. But I think that's a that's

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Speaker 2: just a big one, like, oh, that's not going to

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Speaker 2: work in the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: Like how often do.

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Speaker 2: You do do we say that about about players? How

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00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,119
Speaker 2: often you know certain players are going to get played

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Speaker 2: off the floor, Which is an argument that we won't

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Speaker 2: rehash here, I think between you and I, but uh,

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Speaker 2: it's it's been never.

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Speaker 3: Been Rudy's defense.

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Speaker 2: But I think that's that broadly speaking, that's the that's

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Speaker 2: the biggest one is which players and teams. I think

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Speaker 2: the eighty two game versus sixteen game player thing is

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Speaker 2: overly reductive, but I think it is a useful to

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Speaker 2: remember that, you know, there will be players who are

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Speaker 2: just categorically worse in the playoff environment.

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Speaker 4: There's probably something in there that can be used in

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Speaker 4: selective analysis. It just can't be discussed in the public domain, right,

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Speaker 4: Like it's just it's it's we're not really capable of

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Speaker 4: being able to parse these things out. Like I was

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Speaker 4: written a really interesting thread today about positionality, and it

433
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Speaker 4: was trying to like layer various concepts on top of it.

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Speaker 4: But the problem is, like anytime that you get out

435
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Speaker 4: of traditional positionality, it becomes so complicated as they'll usually

436
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Speaker 4: lose people in the discussion because we're just like it's

437
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Speaker 4: too complicated, like let's just keep it the same. I

438
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Speaker 4: think that's probably the same thing with these kind of

439
00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:59,399
Speaker 4: tropes that we tried out about playoff players and playoff teams.

440
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:04,920
Speaker 4: Is you know it doesn't we aren't in the public domain.

441
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:07,399
Speaker 4: We're not really able to parse these things out. I

442
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 4: think it's one of the reasons why there are certain

443
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:11,679
Speaker 4: teams that like everyone's like no, like there's a lot

444
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,520
Speaker 4: they carry a lot of respect in the league. But

445
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:16,439
Speaker 4: even though they's just like, well, they're not gonna win

446
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:18,440
Speaker 4: the title. But that doesn't mean that they're garbage. They're

447
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 4: just ill suited for this and they haven't gotten the

448
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:23,480
Speaker 4: right series of matchups. And I think that that's that's

449
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:24,920
Speaker 4: always the thing I think about as like, if you

450
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 4: just get the right series of matchups. I mean, the

451
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:28,920
Speaker 4: Raptors won a title last year because they got the

452
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 4: right series of matchups. They had to go through Milwaukee,

453
00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 4: and that was as impressive a win as anybody. But

454
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,640
Speaker 4: but sorry, but but I also am just like, yeah,

455
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 4: they still would have been like, oh nice, sorry, I

456
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:41,879
Speaker 4: got to the finals.

457
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:43,879
Speaker 5: I mean, the Warriors won because they're the Warriors, but

458
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:45,399
Speaker 5: then everything happened that happened.

459
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 4: So I just think that a lot of the time,

460
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:50,920
Speaker 4: the matchups do continue to be and we work backwards,

461
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:54,639
Speaker 4: like you said afterwards on those discussion points, and.

462
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:56,639
Speaker 2: I think that I mean, and it's made also harder

463
00:22:56,680 --> 00:23:01,200
Speaker 2: by the fact that that we because what happened, what

464
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,160
Speaker 2: happened becomes in our mind the only thing that could

465
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 2: have happened. So there's certainly a kind of like a

466
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 2: path dependency that makes it hard to really examine counterfactuals

467
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:16,320
Speaker 2: and and and make kind of the determinations of of

468
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:18,399
Speaker 2: I mean, the one that sticks in my mind the

469
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:22,440
Speaker 2: most is, uh when is the you know, the Clippers

470
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 2: could never get over the top. But the one that

471
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 2: really sticks in my mind was the enormous Game six

472
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:30,680
Speaker 2: comeback the Rockets had, which happened because Corey Brewer and

473
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 2: Josh Smith in a bunch.

474
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 5: Of threes, right, And it's just like that defined that era.

475
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, but what what what what do you take from

476
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:40,879
Speaker 2: that about any any of the players involved when like

477
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 2: two of the legitimate worst shooters in the modern era

478
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 2: just go crazy from three and beat.

479
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 4: You, which is why you should never work backwards, just

480
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,439
Speaker 4: never work backwards and the results. So I'm not going

481
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 4: to let you use your the one that that I

482
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 4: know that you have the strongest feelings of, which is

483
00:23:57,359 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 4: not to use not to describe offensive rating.

484
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 5: As you know, Marcasol has a one o nine offensive rating.

485
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:03,679
Speaker 5: Which is not accurate.

486
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 4: It's the raptors have an offensive rating of one o

487
00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:08,199
Speaker 4: nine with Marcasol on the floor, so.

488
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 5: Don't use that one.

489
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 4: Amongst the more informed people that are in the public discourse,

490
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 4: what's the one use of metrics that you think is

491
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:21,360
Speaker 4: probably the most problematic or off base. What's the one

492
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 4: thing that you keep returning to and being like, I

493
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 4: don't think that this is the best way, best use

494
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 4: of data.

495
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:31,440
Speaker 2: That's a that's a really good question. I think the

496
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 2: biggest one is is then this isn't a specific metrics

497
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 2: so much as it is just the idea of motivated reasoning.

498
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 2: There are tons of stats out there. Most of them

499
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 2: are good for something, and used correctly, they can give

500
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:52,639
Speaker 2: you useful information. People tend to be less careful about

501
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:57,159
Speaker 2: metrics selection when they start from the ordinal rankings that

502
00:24:57,320 --> 00:25:01,440
Speaker 2: the metric produces. That that one I agree with the rankings,

503
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 2: so I think that's the one. Instead of having at

504
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 2: least a mental model of what's important and so you

505
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:08,200
Speaker 2: know that with the more.

506
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 3: Complicated metrics, that's that's obviously hard to do.

507
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 2: But if you don't really understand what's going on under

508
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 2: the hood, it's very tempting to prioritize the the the

509
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 2: results that confirm your priors. And I think that's that's

510
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 2: the biggest thing that that that I that I see,

511
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:30,639
Speaker 2: and that's you know, the fan's gonna fan. But you know,

512
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 2: if we're if we're trying to determine you know, I

513
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 2: don't want to say truth, but if you're trying to

514
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 2: estimate a distribution using a probability distribution, using these numbers,

515
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 2: having having a mental model of of what's important or

516
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 2: what things come together as important before you start the

517
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 2: analysis is important.

518
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 3: And I know that's a lot of work, and that's

519
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 3: boring and it's more fun to my guy's great, your

520
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 3: guys sucks because metric X. But that's that's the one

521
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 3: that annoys me.

522
00:25:57,359 --> 00:26:00,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think from the more where I'm at, I

523
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 4: think I notice just a lot that if the metric

524
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 4: confirms one of those priors, like it, if you're like,

525
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 4: this guy's a good defender, and the metrics don't show

526
00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 4: that he's a good defender, but this metrics shows that

527
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 4: he's a good defender, So this metric is good. And

528
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:15,399
Speaker 4: I'm always like, but you're not considering the impacts on

529
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 4: everybody else. You need to go through the like the

530
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 4: whole thing and look at are all these guys on

531
00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:22,639
Speaker 4: this list good defenders? And does that match like what

532
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 4: you think? And that's before you even get into the

533
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 4: fact of like how is the stat done? Like real

534
00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:29,439
Speaker 4: plus minus has like a lot of like a lot

535
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:31,639
Speaker 4: of backing from very smart people, and I've come around

536
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 4: on it, especially some of the different models that are

537
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 4: out there variations on it, but a lot of the

538
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:39,680
Speaker 4: ones that have that are of public use are also

539
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:42,719
Speaker 4: there are adjustments that are made to those which are

540
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 4: not in the public domain. So if I'm not able

541
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:49,399
Speaker 4: to explain to somebody here's how this is built, I

542
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:51,920
Speaker 4: personally can't be like, this is why I trust this,

543
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,200
Speaker 4: Like I might reference it in passing as part of

544
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,200
Speaker 4: a greater combination of Okay, there's all of these different

545
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:02,119
Speaker 4: data points, including this, but we use some metrics including

546
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 4: I think RPM a little bit too to go.

547
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:06,680
Speaker 5: Like, all right, so this is the one that really

548
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:07,200
Speaker 5: gets at it.

549
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 4: And I'm like, I can't tell you that because I

550
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 4: don't even know what's under the hood, like if it's proprietary,

551
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:16,199
Speaker 4: which I'm also like being on the APV or metrics

552
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:18,879
Speaker 4: boards back in like two thousand and seven. It's very

553
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 4: like confusing to me to be like, why is that

554
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 4: everyone sharing everything? I don't understand why everything isn't published.

555
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:26,479
Speaker 4: And that's where I start to get concerned is when

556
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,680
Speaker 4: we're relying on metrics that are like very very vague

557
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:31,639
Speaker 4: and nebulous and very much like, oh, don't look at

558
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:33,159
Speaker 4: the wizard, but you know, don't pay attention to the

559
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:35,600
Speaker 4: man behind the curtain, just look at the wizard.

560
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 2: So and I think that that a lot of that

561
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 2: is is sort of there's there's bias that creeps into

562
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,680
Speaker 2: all of those kind of unintentionally. And then get back

563
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 2: and gets back to to my original point. These with

564
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 2: the kind of the democratization of like statistical tools you

565
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 2: can get, it's reasonably easy to fit a model and

566
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 2: get an answer to precisely the question you're asking. The

567
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:03,920
Speaker 2: problems when the question you're actually you've actually instructed the

568
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 2: computer to answer is different than the one you're asking

569
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 2: in your head. And that's where a lot of the

570
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,120
Speaker 2: you know, the basketball question you're asking in your head

571
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:16,359
Speaker 2: is different than the than whatever the model you've built

572
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:18,920
Speaker 2: is doing. And that's where some of the confusion and

573
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 2: disconnects happen, and I tend to be with you. I

574
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 2: prefer I will definitely trade some some precision for interpretability

575
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 2: and explainability, at least from a discussion standpoint, every time,

576
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:35,119
Speaker 2: just because I feel like that kind of.

577
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:36,680
Speaker 4: It.

578
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 2: Well, here's why I think it is tends to be

579
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 2: more powerful than because this implacable number says so, which

580
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 2: has yet to really get me anywhere in an argument,

581
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 2: either in public or private domains.

582
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 4: Well, thanks Seth for coming on. You can find him

583
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 4: on Twitter at Seth Partner p A R T n

584
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 4: o W. Make sure you download our app. It's phenomenal like'

585
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:02,680
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587
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588
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Speaker 4: the NBA gets started back up again. Check out all

589
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:12,959
Speaker 4: of the great content that we've got at Action Network.

590
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 4: You can catch Seth also, by the way, at the

591
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 4: Athletic NBA podcast. He's on Fridays on nurdersry Rope quite

592
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 4: often with Dave do four for us. Make sure to rate,

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Speaker 4: review and subscribe. You need a rate review and subscribe.

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Speaker 4: get all of your stuff ready, Get set and set

596
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 4: up for the return of sports and the return of

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Speaker 4: sports gambling. It's exciting, it's here. I'll be back again

598
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 4: next Friday with another episode NBA edition of the Action

599
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 4: Network

600
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:50,240
Speaker 3: Podcast We're Finished Talking