WEBVTT - Surveillance: Returning to Work With Rep. McHenry 0:00:09.880 --> 0:00:13.800 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:17.560 we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.480 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:27.640 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Even 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:29.960 Robari has been with this many times with City Group 0:00:29.960 --> 0:00:33.440 and Ahead of Economic Research for them, working with Catherine 0:00:33.440 --> 0:00:36.360 Mann and working with a great team including Edward Morrise 0:00:36.600 --> 0:00:40.360 on petroleum and a hybrid hydrocarbons. Abraham, let me just 0:00:40.400 --> 0:00:44.840 talk about a greater idea of stimulus in endless debt, 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:48.800 even at a low interest rate. Does that just assume 0:00:49.080 --> 0:00:57.280 currency depreciation or potential devaluation? Tomas and John's great to 0:00:57.280 --> 0:00:59.800 be on once again, and that's a great question, and 0:00:59.840 --> 0:01:02.600 my short answers, no, it does not. And in fact, 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:05.479 that's the point we've been making for our currency forecasts 0:01:05.560 --> 0:01:09.480 that in many cases it's the ability to stabilize the 0:01:09.480 --> 0:01:13.280 economy through these very aggressive stimulus measures that in fact 0:01:13.280 --> 0:01:16.280 we'll pull in capital inflows and will be a support 0:01:16.319 --> 0:01:18.920 for asset prices and therefore also the exchange rate. So 0:01:18.959 --> 0:01:21.080 I don't think it's generally true that we should assume 0:01:21.240 --> 0:01:25.280 currency depreciation as a result of these massive liquidity injections. 0:01:25.440 --> 0:01:28.440 That being said, I think the aggressive actions by the 0:01:28.520 --> 0:01:31.679 FED have certainly been one major factor that has made 0:01:32.200 --> 0:01:35.600 investors more confident to bet on currencies other than the dollar. 0:01:35.720 --> 0:01:37.840 So I think in the dollar specific case, they've certainly 0:01:38.080 --> 0:01:42.680 contributed to the recent seller on a waiting of the 0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:47.000 mathematics of this lift and gold up twenty three folks 0:01:47.040 --> 0:01:50.760 after March lows, even in Mabari. When you look at gold, 0:01:50.840 --> 0:01:55.080 do you ascribe it simply to these uncommon low real yields? 0:01:55.240 --> 0:01:59.520 Is literally negative real yields across the entire system? Is 0:01:59.560 --> 0:02:03.760 that what's driving gold higher? I think it's certainly a 0:02:03.840 --> 0:02:06.279 very important factor. And and if you look at the charts, 0:02:06.360 --> 0:02:08.640 you see that the correlation with real yields and in 0:02:08.680 --> 0:02:12.320 particular with US real yields continues to be very strong, 0:02:13.080 --> 0:02:15.000 and even most recently, if we look at the last 0:02:15.000 --> 0:02:20.240 few weeks, the latest increasing gold prices has been coming 0:02:20.280 --> 0:02:23.760 alongside a pretty steep decline and real heels as well. 0:02:24.160 --> 0:02:26.280 But we do think that there is a second element, 0:02:26.440 --> 0:02:28.680 which is if you like the quantitative part, so you 0:02:28.720 --> 0:02:31.840 have the price driver which is on the real interest 0:02:31.919 --> 0:02:35.000 right side. But it's a quantitative driver, which is in fact, 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:39.160 again the massive increase in central bank liquidity, and it 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:43.080 is associated with the search for alternatives to the conventional currency. 0:02:43.280 --> 0:02:46.280 So we think there's kind of this two pronged uh, 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:50.160 these two prompt pillars of supports for gold prices very 0:02:50.160 --> 0:02:53.080 low he reels, but also the search for alternatives. And 0:02:53.120 --> 0:02:56.560 I think gold stands out there alongside maybe the end 0:02:56.560 --> 0:02:59.560 in currency space, but also to some degree some of 0:02:59.600 --> 0:03:03.640 the crypt occurrence. What is truly original about this moment 0:03:03.680 --> 0:03:06.640 as well, Abraham, Away from the cryptocurrencies are the extra 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:09.080 reasons people are looking to shun the dollar in this environment, 0:03:09.080 --> 0:03:11.080 and it's the belief that the US becomes the source 0:03:11.080 --> 0:03:14.920 of instability as the reopening effort starts to stall in 0:03:14.919 --> 0:03:18.120 many states across America. We have had so many guests 0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:21.720 on this program in the last four hours talk up 0:03:21.720 --> 0:03:24.919 a shift away from the United States and towards Europe 0:03:24.960 --> 0:03:27.880 and our swhere because of how badly the reopening process 0:03:27.919 --> 0:03:30.160 is going in America and for that reason, people are 0:03:30.200 --> 0:03:33.200 looking to fade the U. S. Dollar. Does that argument 0:03:33.360 --> 0:03:38.280 resonate with you, Abraham, I would say a version of 0:03:38.320 --> 0:03:41.040 the argument resonates with me, but it's it's probably a 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:43.320 little more flattering to the US because I think we 0:03:43.320 --> 0:03:48.080 should continue to ascribe a fairly exceptional position to the 0:03:48.200 --> 0:03:51.040 US outlook, and we continue to think that the US 0:03:51.280 --> 0:03:54.880 economy will bounce back earlier and more strongly than much 0:03:54.880 --> 0:03:56.960 of the rest of the world. But what is truth 0:03:57.000 --> 0:03:59.760 from an investment standpoint is that the rest of the 0:03:59.760 --> 0:04:03.400 world is unusually heavily exposed to the US, and US 0:04:03.400 --> 0:04:05.520 s s are unusually expensive relatives to the rector of 0:04:05.600 --> 0:04:08.000 the world, and in an environment where there are a 0:04:08.040 --> 0:04:11.040 couple of clouds on the US horizon, including a fairly 0:04:11.120 --> 0:04:13.840 uncertain election, I do think it makes a great deal 0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:16.760 of sensor investors to diversify a little bit away from 0:04:16.800 --> 0:04:18.880 the US, and I think that's really what we're seeing. 0:04:18.880 --> 0:04:23.000 We're seeing some diversification given these kind of unusually high 0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:26.559 valuations in high exposures from the US, and we also 0:04:26.600 --> 0:04:29.720 think that that should give you some further upside, for instance, 0:04:29.800 --> 0:04:31.880 for the euro against the dollar, for a couple of 0:04:31.920 --> 0:04:34.880 the other gn alternative against the dollar. But I don't 0:04:34.920 --> 0:04:38.039 think this is it's equivalent through writing off the US. 0:04:38.160 --> 0:04:42.039 In fact, we think the US kind of growth exceptionalism 0:04:42.080 --> 0:04:46.960 probably still has some legs in it left coming perhaps 0:04:47.000 --> 0:04:50.279 out of the election, but for the next couple of months, 0:04:50.560 --> 0:04:54.480 it does put the US on the back foot, all right, Ebrahim. 0:04:54.560 --> 0:04:56.800 The weakening of the US dollar has been something a 0:04:56.800 --> 0:04:58.919 lot of people are trying to understand in order to 0:04:58.920 --> 0:05:01.560 figure out how long it has to run. You're saying 0:05:01.560 --> 0:05:04.720 that it does have longer versus the Euro. Looking at 0:05:04.760 --> 0:05:07.240 Bank of America Global Research, they came out and they 0:05:07.240 --> 0:05:09.560 said that the FED stimulus, as you were talking about, 0:05:09.600 --> 0:05:13.760 compressing real rates was the main driver of the weakening 0:05:14.000 --> 0:05:17.119 in the dollar, which raises a question how much further 0:05:17.320 --> 0:05:21.000 can the FED and will the FED compress real yields? 0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:24.240 And that that is the key to the dollars trajectory 0:05:24.279 --> 0:05:26.840 in the months to come. So what's the answer, how 0:05:26.920 --> 0:05:31.080 much further can the Fed go? Yes? Very interesting. And 0:05:32.279 --> 0:05:34.560 as for you real yields, I should say we were 0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:37.880 a little bit surprised how much further you really have declined. 0:05:37.920 --> 0:05:40.800 And in particular the declining real yield of late has 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:44.160 been driven by a pick up and an invasion expectation 0:05:44.720 --> 0:05:47.200 in an environment where I think many of us don't 0:05:47.240 --> 0:05:50.320 really expect instation to pick up so we think the 0:05:50.480 --> 0:05:54.039 driver of the recent decline and real yields is probably 0:05:54.120 --> 0:05:56.000 running a little bit out of steam, and that means 0:05:56.440 --> 0:05:59.520 maybe the nominal side, nominal interest rates have to do 0:05:59.600 --> 0:06:02.400 more of at work. But we do think that the 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:04.919 bulk of the move has taken place, so when it 0:06:04.920 --> 0:06:07.560 comes to real deals as a driver, there might be 0:06:07.600 --> 0:06:10.880 another ten twenty basis points in there, but we really 0:06:10.880 --> 0:06:15.760 don't expect a lot further in terms of really a downside. 0:06:15.920 --> 0:06:17.599 But it is also not the only driver. So what 0:06:17.640 --> 0:06:19.880 I was just alluding to in terms of drivers of 0:06:20.400 --> 0:06:23.320 the US dollar down, I think there is also a 0:06:23.360 --> 0:06:28.479 shift in terms of expectations of growth, perhaps some optimism 0:06:28.560 --> 0:06:31.919 for EU measures that's coming into play as well. So 0:06:32.040 --> 0:06:34.480 if the dollar sells off, I think it's increasingly has 0:06:34.520 --> 0:06:36.840 to come from some of these other elements rather than 0:06:37.120 --> 0:06:40.960 a further decline. And really even him round Barry with 0:06:41.120 --> 0:06:54.160 us from City Group right now to drive forward the 0:06:54.240 --> 0:06:58.040 discussion and stimulus we have with us a gentleman from 0:06:58.040 --> 0:07:00.960 the town District, North Carolina, and Patrick mckenry joins is 0:07:01.040 --> 0:07:04.800 he has been steeped in Republican politics going back to 0:07:04.880 --> 0:07:09.240 George Bush the younger. He was intimately involved and that's successful. 0:07:09.320 --> 0:07:12.480 Run for president in two thousand, Congress, and thank you 0:07:12.520 --> 0:07:16.239 so much for joining us today. What is the best 0:07:16.560 --> 0:07:22.240 outcome for conservative Republicans in this fiscal trajectory of the 0:07:22.280 --> 0:07:25.440 next six seven in eight weeks, for those that are 0:07:25.520 --> 0:07:31.200 frugal and if frugal constituents, what's the best outcome? Well, 0:07:31.240 --> 0:07:34.880 I mean, ideological concerns are different when you have a 0:07:34.880 --> 0:07:37.240 house fire, and what we have is a is a 0:07:37.320 --> 0:07:40.800 major house fire here, So we've got to get that righted, uh, 0:07:40.840 --> 0:07:43.360 and then get back on a solid footing here. So 0:07:43.920 --> 0:07:46.880 for me, I think the approach is how do you 0:07:47.360 --> 0:07:50.200 how do you get people back in employment in safe 0:07:50.240 --> 0:07:54.320 and effective way? So the first piece there is health safety. 0:07:54.320 --> 0:07:57.400 Without health safety, nothing else matters. So we have to 0:07:57.440 --> 0:08:00.000 have substantial funds so that we can have a pipeline 0:08:00.280 --> 0:08:03.960 of treatment options that have been borne out by scientific proof, 0:08:04.680 --> 0:08:07.800 as well as potentially a vaccine. You get that right, 0:08:07.960 --> 0:08:11.880 that which of course requires a substantial amount of government money. UH. 0:08:11.920 --> 0:08:14.880 With the private sector innovation and then you get to 0:08:14.960 --> 0:08:18.240 the question of a rehiring bonus and tax policy then 0:08:18.360 --> 0:08:22.040 centivizes businesses to get back in the in the risk business, 0:08:22.400 --> 0:08:26.160 to safely reopen to take the proper risks and to 0:08:26.360 --> 0:08:29.160 know that they have a foundation upon which to take 0:08:29.200 --> 0:08:32.480 that risk. So I think that's really important. So rehiring 0:08:33.040 --> 0:08:37.280 bonuses would be substantial and helpful, and and a tapering 0:08:37.320 --> 0:08:41.720 down or elimination of these uh overly generous in major 0:08:41.760 --> 0:08:46.120 parts of the country, federal benefits for unemployment. I think 0:08:46.200 --> 0:08:49.880 the combination of a bonus for rehiring and tapering down 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:54.960 that unemployment benefit would be smart policy accompressment. Are you 0:08:54.960 --> 0:08:57.280 getting frustrated by the lack of clarity, the lack of 0:08:57.280 --> 0:09:00.160 details that you're getting from this administration in the month 0:09:00.200 --> 0:09:04.599 of July. Yes, Look, we had a great result of 0:09:04.640 --> 0:09:09.199 the Cares Act. We saw Pelosi in the House, Democrats 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:12.160 produce a partisan bill. They've got no Republican votes. They 0:09:12.200 --> 0:09:14.760 even lost Democrat votes. It was so far to the left. 0:09:15.040 --> 0:09:17.679 So that's not a serious point of discussion. Well, we 0:09:17.720 --> 0:09:21.160 want to hear is that is that agenda set so 0:09:21.200 --> 0:09:24.280 we can have Trump economy too. We just came off 0:09:24.360 --> 0:09:28.040 of the best economy and most of our lifetimes, and 0:09:28.200 --> 0:09:32.280 the policy set that we implemented there gave support to 0:09:32.360 --> 0:09:34.560 what was happening in the private sector and lifted us 0:09:34.559 --> 0:09:37.320 to new heights. Let's put that agenda out, Let's be 0:09:37.360 --> 0:09:40.320 bold about it. Let's hear from the White House on 0:09:40.600 --> 0:09:43.160 the details so that we can go iron out the 0:09:43.200 --> 0:09:45.560 policy on the hill. That's really what I want to hear. 0:09:45.840 --> 0:09:47.840 And it has been frustrating that we haven't had that 0:09:48.000 --> 0:09:52.120 that detail set yet. The Congressman, why are they dragging 0:09:52.120 --> 0:09:54.520 their feet? What's the reason behind it at the moment 0:09:54.520 --> 0:09:56.640 from your standpoint, and if it making it difficult in 0:09:56.640 --> 0:09:59.840 your constituency to talk to your constituents about why they 0:09:59.840 --> 0:10:04.160 were it isn't a plan beyond the month of July. Well, look, 0:10:04.800 --> 0:10:08.719 it's complicated because everything has changed. You got you like 0:10:09.120 --> 0:10:11.400 the best health experts in the world. We're saying that 0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:14.600 summer was gonna sort of take this thing down like 0:10:14.640 --> 0:10:16.520 the flu season, And that was just a couple of 0:10:16.559 --> 0:10:19.680 months ago. We had we had health experts tells not 0:10:19.720 --> 0:10:22.040 to wear masks at the beginning of the year. So 0:10:22.280 --> 0:10:24.640 the idea that you're gonna see two months or three 0:10:24.640 --> 0:10:27.319 months in the future in this environment is is really hard. 0:10:27.800 --> 0:10:31.800 So I think there's some some understanding that we wanted 0:10:31.840 --> 0:10:35.080 to be hesitant to to just lay out a whole 0:10:35.080 --> 0:10:39.160 broad policy path before we actually unders the confines of 0:10:39.200 --> 0:10:42.280 this now we're in July. We need to see that 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:45.400 clearly from the administration, and we need to see clearly 0:10:45.480 --> 0:10:48.880 from states and localities about school reopening, because that's a 0:10:49.000 --> 0:10:52.439 vital economic set as well. If you can't have childcare, 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:55.320 it's very difficult. Fore you get back to some semblance 0:10:55.320 --> 0:11:00.360 of normal economic life. Congressman, you're talking about lack of 0:11:00.400 --> 0:11:03.480 cohesion and a lack of certainty around what the policies, 0:11:03.520 --> 0:11:06.680 the specific detailed policies are going to be going forward. 0:11:07.000 --> 0:11:10.319 And yet you're also you've admonished FED Chair J. Powell 0:11:10.559 --> 0:11:15.280 for perhaps blurring the lines between monetary and fiscal policy. 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:19.000 Some argue that because there hasn't been a faster fiscal policy, 0:11:19.040 --> 0:11:21.920 it is forced the Federal Reserve to act more and 0:11:22.160 --> 0:11:25.400 in more varieties that go closer to fiscal policy to 0:11:25.559 --> 0:11:28.439 make up for that gap. What do you say about that? 0:11:28.520 --> 0:11:30.600 I mean, do you think that you have been too 0:11:30.600 --> 0:11:34.360 slow and forced the FED to act more aggressively? Not yet. 0:11:35.080 --> 0:11:37.840 If we if we screw this up in in late 0:11:37.920 --> 0:11:40.920 July in August, I think that will be the case. 0:11:41.040 --> 0:11:43.360 But I don't see that. What I what I was 0:11:43.520 --> 0:11:47.000 reminding when we have the Secretary of the Treasury before 0:11:47.040 --> 0:11:49.920 my committee and the Secretary I'm sorry, in the Chair 0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:53.000 of the Federal Reserve, I always remind them that there 0:11:53.080 --> 0:11:57.240 is this wall between monetary policy and fiscal policy, and 0:11:57.360 --> 0:12:01.080 the Hill should not get into the weeds of monitor policy, 0:12:01.360 --> 0:12:05.400 nor should the FED chair direct fiscal policy. And I 0:12:05.400 --> 0:12:09.440 gotta tell you, j Pal gets high marks UH for 0:12:09.640 --> 0:12:15.800 his fast, fast action UH and being very foresighted. His 0:12:15.920 --> 0:12:19.880 foresight is just absolutely amazing in this environment. And when 0:12:19.880 --> 0:12:22.360 they when they laid out main street lending, it took 0:12:22.400 --> 0:12:24.440 a long time to get that ramped up, but it 0:12:24.520 --> 0:12:27.360 was very clear sign of policymakers on the Hill that 0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:29.679 we've got the lending piece. You guys get in the 0:12:29.760 --> 0:12:33.040 stimulus piece. You guys get people connected with their employment 0:12:33.240 --> 0:12:36.160 and you get people off the unemployment roles or give 0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:38.600 them support so they can get back into the economy. 0:12:38.920 --> 0:12:41.640 And that's something that we hear clearly. So I think 0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:44.400 they've picked their lane smartly. I think they've stayed in 0:12:44.440 --> 0:12:49.240 their lane smartly. However, really aggressively UM. And over the 0:12:49.320 --> 0:12:51.800 long term, we're gonna have to have these FED programs 0:12:51.840 --> 0:12:54.680 pulled back from the economy. But at this stage, we're 0:12:54.679 --> 0:12:58.679 still trying to put this house fire out. The Congressman, 0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:00.400 we need to get down to Asheville, will du a 0:13:00.440 --> 0:13:04.080 remote down their teams surveillance Asheville, North Carolina. I can 0:13:04.120 --> 0:13:06.599 see it now, Patrick Henry, thank you so much, the 0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:17.040 tenth Congressional District of North Carolina. Right now, without question, 0:13:17.160 --> 0:13:19.920 our interview of the day, if not our interview of 0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:23.439 the week on the social fabric of this nation. It 0:13:23.480 --> 0:13:27.280 would normally be an interview on trade with a former 0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:31.199 ambassador on trade with President Obama, Mr Kirk of Texas, 0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:34.240 but that's not the case. And these times we need 0:13:34.280 --> 0:13:38.640 to talk to run Kirk about the Reagan High School 0:13:38.720 --> 0:13:41.000 in Austin, Texas. We need to talk to him as 0:13:41.080 --> 0:13:44.400 fifty seven mayor of Dallas, Texas and who we need 0:13:44.440 --> 0:13:47.720 to talk to him about the path forward for this nation. 0:13:47.800 --> 0:13:50.040 Ron Kirk, were honored to have you with us. UH 0:13:50.200 --> 0:13:55.000 today we are seeing images of statues torn down. They're 0:13:55.000 --> 0:13:56.640 not going to do that in front of the Alamo, 0:13:57.080 --> 0:14:00.160 but we're seeing images coast to coast of statue is 0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:04.080 being pulled down. How do we resurrect the new statues 0:14:04.160 --> 0:14:07.840 to come? How do we rebuild this nation? With statues 0:14:07.920 --> 0:14:11.560 that our kids can be proud of. Well, Tom, first 0:14:11.600 --> 0:14:15.040 of all, thanks for having me, and we are taking 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:18.640 a turn that I didn't expect that it's certainly not 0:14:18.760 --> 0:14:22.320 one that I haven't uh spoken to quite a bit 0:14:22.360 --> 0:14:25.920 over the last several months. First of all, Um, Tom, 0:14:26.080 --> 0:14:29.880 if we to me, the more important journey isn't about 0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:34.880 which statutes we replace, what with The bigger journey is 0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:37.240 what's in our hearts and are we gonna really get 0:14:37.280 --> 0:14:44.440 to the systemic um matters that have allowed, for the 0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:48.760 most parts, the overwhelming majority of blacks and Latinos and 0:14:48.840 --> 0:14:51.520 poor people in this country to be locked out of 0:14:51.560 --> 0:14:56.680 the economic system. And while Um and you mentioned ironically, 0:14:56.720 --> 0:14:59.800 I graduated from John H. Reagan High School, another one 0:14:59.840 --> 0:15:02.120 of the a school named for another one of those 0:15:02.160 --> 0:15:06.160 Confederate generals. My concern if we spend more attention on 0:15:06.400 --> 0:15:09.720 taking down the names and the statutes, we don't address 0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:13.160 the systemic problem we have in some of our police 0:15:13.200 --> 0:15:18.080 communities over the sparent treatment of blacks and poor people. 0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:23.280 If we don't address those underlying factors that hold people 0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:28.360 of color black economically, we really will have only just 0:15:28.480 --> 0:15:32.280 put up a new painting pimed some new Draps declared 0:15:32.400 --> 0:15:36.280 victory and moved forward. And I'm much more interested in 0:15:36.360 --> 0:15:40.960 attacking the core issues that have plagued this country for now. 0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:44.440 You know, whether you figur it's the last seventy years 0:15:44.520 --> 0:15:49.320 or two hundred years, but far too long. I'm gonna 0:15:49.320 --> 0:15:52.160 be blunt here. You grew up in the pragmatic, toughest 0:15:52.240 --> 0:15:56.320 now's politics of texas As, and Richards gave you guidance. 0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:58.880 You lost to Phil Graham. There's always been a grace 0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:03.440 underneath the toughness of Texas politics. How do we get 0:16:03.480 --> 0:16:09.280 that grace back to Washington after a one term President Trump, 0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:13.480 or indeed after a two term President Trump. How do 0:16:13.560 --> 0:16:17.200 we get the grace back at the federal level? Well, 0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:19.360 I know this this is a business show, not a 0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:24.840 political show. But if nothing else, President Trump has taught 0:16:24.920 --> 0:16:27.920 us all that the tone at the top matters. And 0:16:28.000 --> 0:16:30.840 so if what people are really caring about is the 0:16:30.920 --> 0:16:35.240 restoration of grace and civility and and and that's gonna 0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:38.840 be a long path in and of itself, then you 0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:41.880 have to start with the belief that this has to 0:16:41.920 --> 0:16:44.960 be a one term president. I mean, he just does 0:16:45.040 --> 0:16:48.000 not have it within his d n A to ever 0:16:49.120 --> 0:16:55.000 demonstrate even a modicum amount of empathy or grace or forgiveness, 0:16:55.040 --> 0:17:00.080 our recognition of when he's wrong. Uh. And voters, the 0:17:00.120 --> 0:17:05.320 American people have to recognize Donald Trump didn't start uh 0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:09.800 this degradation of our civility. Uh, he did, I think 0:17:09.880 --> 0:17:14.000 bring to the surface and give cover to a lot 0:17:14.080 --> 0:17:17.959 of Americans who are afraid over our changing demographics. And 0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:21.280 we're seeing that all across the country. All you've got 0:17:21.280 --> 0:17:23.280 to do is look at any of your news feeds 0:17:23.359 --> 0:17:26.679 in it day and see one more incident of a 0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:30.440 black family and Asian family and Hispanic family being attacked. 0:17:30.920 --> 0:17:33.560 There's a boldness there that I don't think people would 0:17:33.560 --> 0:17:39.440 have demonstrated if they weren't getting now very overt direction 0:17:39.600 --> 0:17:42.560 from the White House. But the other thing I've told people, 0:17:42.600 --> 0:17:46.720 we're responsible for that. If you want more civility, if 0:17:46.760 --> 0:17:49.720 you want political leaders who are willing to find the 0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:53.560 common ground, stop voting for all of these jerks who 0:17:53.600 --> 0:17:57.840 go to Washington refused to compromise, see one another's as 0:17:57.960 --> 0:18:02.920 enemy combatants, uh, versus all of us who care about 0:18:02.960 --> 0:18:05.800 and love this country wanted to live up to our 0:18:06.520 --> 0:18:10.560 ideals and are willing to fight passionately forward that so 0:18:10.640 --> 0:18:13.479 it starts with the power of that vote. And I 0:18:13.600 --> 0:18:17.520 challenged the American people vote for vote for the kind 0:18:17.560 --> 0:18:20.720 of politicians you say in your heart you want to 0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:24.840 see representing us. But then don't stop there. Examine your 0:18:24.840 --> 0:18:28.760 own behavior in the workplace and in corporate America and 0:18:28.800 --> 0:18:34.120 see whether or not we're living up to those ideals. Ambassador, 0:18:34.280 --> 0:18:35.840 Since this is a business show, I do want to 0:18:35.840 --> 0:18:37.880 just get a quick question in here. Given the fact 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:40.600 that we've got so much emphasis on rejiggering supply chains 0:18:40.600 --> 0:18:43.119 in the wake of the pandemic, do you think that 0:18:43.200 --> 0:18:46.199 we do need a different trade policy with this in 0:18:46.280 --> 0:18:49.640 mind in order to bring medical supply production and other 0:18:49.800 --> 0:18:53.639 essential services back to the United States. Well, sure, and 0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:56.679 I know initially we we're going to talk about the 0:18:56.880 --> 0:19:01.240 visited of President Lopez opera over the door from Mexico 0:19:01.400 --> 0:19:05.240 to the US. But this is where trade policy does matter. 0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:10.160 And while the new uh NAFTA, the United States Mexico 0:19:10.280 --> 0:19:13.560 Canada Agreement is an improvement on it, but it's taken 0:19:13.640 --> 0:19:16.760 the old car in the garage that your parents gave you, 0:19:16.800 --> 0:19:19.960 putting a new engine in it, putting new bells and whistles, 0:19:20.359 --> 0:19:24.920 versus having a new architecture like the Trump administration threw 0:19:24.960 --> 0:19:28.760 away with the Transpacific Partnership, that will allow us to 0:19:28.880 --> 0:19:32.760 have access to whether it's medical supplies or technology or 0:19:32.880 --> 0:19:36.560 raw materials that we need to drive our economy and 0:19:36.600 --> 0:19:40.760 more importantly, give us free access to these new emerging 0:19:40.880 --> 0:19:45.040 markets that desperately want to grow using the best of 0:19:45.080 --> 0:19:49.240 what we make in America. But this pandemic has demonstrated 0:19:49.320 --> 0:19:54.120 the folly of having a terror policy that ends up 0:19:54.200 --> 0:19:58.280 compromising our ability to access the very things we need 0:19:58.320 --> 0:20:03.400 to fight this horrific the disease. These are many conversations, 0:20:03.480 --> 0:20:06.000 and we need longer conversations. Ryan Kirk, We've got to 0:20:06.040 --> 0:20:08.239 get you back on again soon. Thank you so much 0:20:08.320 --> 0:20:11.960 for joining us today. He's a former mayor of Dallas, 0:20:22.920 --> 0:20:26.280 Austin Gulsby at the University of Chicago. That was pretty good. 0:20:26.280 --> 0:20:28.480 How he did that, Austin? How I got rock? You 0:20:28.520 --> 0:20:30.919 did and you didn't even know, y gua. John and 0:20:30.960 --> 0:20:34.320 I are teaching a class together right now on policy 0:20:34.400 --> 0:20:37.520 and an unweld. We're going to rip up the script 0:20:37.600 --> 0:20:40.359 right now, because folks, this is serious stuff. The third 0:20:40.400 --> 0:20:42.520 Pillar was my book of the summer last year. It's 0:20:42.520 --> 0:20:47.440 on community. A primal screen by Professor Rodging about how 0:20:47.520 --> 0:20:50.639 we have to change how we adapt at a macro 0:20:50.800 --> 0:20:54.000 basis and also at the micro basis the community. And 0:20:54.119 --> 0:20:56.719 Austin Goulsby is one of the few guys I know 0:20:57.280 --> 0:21:01.800 that actually practices this within his academics, as he did 0:21:01.800 --> 0:21:05.359 with President. Awesome, you're in the room with Ragu and 0:21:05.400 --> 0:21:09.320 you're talking to third pillar. How's America doing the answers? 0:21:09.760 --> 0:21:12.800 Not very well right now? Yeah, it's Look, it's a 0:21:12.840 --> 0:21:15.400 tough moment. We're in the we're in the zoom room. 0:21:15.480 --> 0:21:20.040 We don't we're not. We're still socially distanced from one another. 0:21:20.560 --> 0:21:26.199 But look, I don't know how. I don't quite know 0:21:26.240 --> 0:21:28.600 how we got to where we are on the economy, 0:21:28.840 --> 0:21:32.040 not not just the health side, but on the economy. 0:21:32.119 --> 0:21:36.919 Because even though there's no vaccine, you've got most of 0:21:36.960 --> 0:21:41.440 the advanced countries of the world have got it fairly contained. 0:21:41.800 --> 0:21:45.720 They've got a handle on it. They can start coming back. 0:21:46.520 --> 0:21:49.119 And there are only a few exceptions. The US is 0:21:49.200 --> 0:21:53.639 one and Sweden's another where they kind of let the 0:21:53.760 --> 0:21:57.480 virus get out of control in the name of helping 0:21:57.480 --> 0:22:00.520 their economy. But actually, you see it, actual we hurt 0:22:00.560 --> 0:22:04.520 their economy, that the economies in the US and Sweden 0:22:04.560 --> 0:22:06.600 are going to have a hard time coming back if 0:22:06.640 --> 0:22:11.320 we don't contain the virus Austin just yeah, it's it's 0:22:11.320 --> 0:22:14.399 just h I was just gonna say, Tommy know, earlier, 0:22:14.400 --> 0:22:17.480 we had Matt Winkler on Austin. He's a founder of 0:22:17.680 --> 0:22:20.280 Bloomberg News Me has a wonderful column out this morning, 0:22:20.320 --> 0:22:21.840 and Tom and I were speaking with him, and he 0:22:21.920 --> 0:22:24.000 just kind of pointed out something that you were just saying, 0:22:24.000 --> 0:22:26.960 which is the US has really done a poor job 0:22:27.040 --> 0:22:29.840 relative to a lot of other countries around the world 0:22:29.880 --> 0:22:32.760 when you look at some of the data. What do 0:22:32.760 --> 0:22:34.800 you what do you think the solution is from here, 0:22:34.800 --> 0:22:40.080 because it doesn't appear to be a federal effort to 0:22:40.160 --> 0:22:44.879 combat this virus and the economic impact. Yeah, look that 0:22:45.040 --> 0:22:49.840 that's the problem. The optimistic thing is if we don't 0:22:50.040 --> 0:22:54.720 dawdle forever, we're not that far from getting on the 0:22:54.800 --> 0:22:58.640 road that everybody else is on. Um. But if there's 0:22:58.680 --> 0:23:02.119 not gonna be a big federal push, which I agree 0:23:02.119 --> 0:23:05.200 with you it seems like there's not, then I think 0:23:05.480 --> 0:23:08.240 it's gonna move back to the States and you're gonna 0:23:08.320 --> 0:23:13.280 find this weird differential where you've got a few states 0:23:13.320 --> 0:23:17.919 where they're just gonna basically ignore the the evidence or 0:23:17.960 --> 0:23:23.400 the experience of other places, and those of in not 0:23:23.680 --> 0:23:27.240 very short order, those economies are gonna start to suffer again. 0:23:28.080 --> 0:23:32.680 And then in places where they're being judicious, um, they 0:23:32.720 --> 0:23:35.280 can get out of this. And that thing is if 0:23:35.320 --> 0:23:39.480 you look at these countries in Europe, in Asia, Australia, 0:23:39.560 --> 0:23:43.240 New Zealand, it's not just that they're getting out of lockdown. 0:23:43.240 --> 0:23:46.920 Their kids are going back to school. They in Norway, 0:23:46.960 --> 0:23:49.080 they go there back in the gym's and they said 0:23:49.080 --> 0:23:52.200 they haven't had any cases of transmission in the gyms 0:23:52.240 --> 0:23:55.679 because they've got the they've got a handle on the 0:23:55.720 --> 0:24:01.280 spread of the virus. The thing is, look, nobody, everybody 0:24:01.359 --> 0:24:06.120 knows we want to get out of of this withdrawn period, 0:24:06.600 --> 0:24:09.399 and we're all going stair crazy. But if you do 0:24:09.480 --> 0:24:12.720 it too early, you set yourself back to square zero. 0:24:12.800 --> 0:24:16.600