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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily

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Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Even

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Speaker 1: Robari has been with this many times with City Group

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Speaker 1: and Ahead of Economic Research for them, working with Catherine

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Speaker 1: Mann and working with a great team including Edward Morrise

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Speaker 1: on petroleum and a hybrid hydrocarbons. Abraham, let me just

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Speaker 1: talk about a greater idea of stimulus in endless debt,

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Speaker 1: even at a low interest rate. Does that just assume

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Speaker 1: currency depreciation or potential devaluation? Tomas and John's great to

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Speaker 1: be on once again, and that's a great question, and

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Speaker 1: my short answers, no, it does not. And in fact,

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Speaker 1: that's the point we've been making for our currency forecasts

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Speaker 1: that in many cases it's the ability to stabilize the

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Speaker 1: economy through these very aggressive stimulus measures that in fact

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Speaker 1: we'll pull in capital inflows and will be a support

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Speaker 1: for asset prices and therefore also the exchange rate. So

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's generally true that we should assume

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Speaker 1: currency depreciation as a result of these massive liquidity injections.

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Speaker 1: That being said, I think the aggressive actions by the

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Speaker 1: FED have certainly been one major factor that has made

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Speaker 1: investors more confident to bet on currencies other than the dollar.

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Speaker 1: So I think in the dollar specific case, they've certainly

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Speaker 1: contributed to the recent seller on a waiting of the

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Speaker 1: mathematics of this lift and gold up twenty three folks

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Speaker 1: after March lows, even in Mabari. When you look at gold,

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Speaker 1: do you ascribe it simply to these uncommon low real yields?

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Speaker 1: Is literally negative real yields across the entire system? Is

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Speaker 1: that what's driving gold higher? I think it's certainly a

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Speaker 1: very important factor. And and if you look at the charts,

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Speaker 1: you see that the correlation with real yields and in

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Speaker 1: particular with US real yields continues to be very strong,

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Speaker 1: and even most recently, if we look at the last

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Speaker 1: few weeks, the latest increasing gold prices has been coming

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Speaker 1: alongside a pretty steep decline and real heels as well.

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Speaker 1: But we do think that there is a second element,

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Speaker 1: which is if you like the quantitative part, so you

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Speaker 1: have the price driver which is on the real interest

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Speaker 1: right side. But it's a quantitative driver, which is in fact,

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Speaker 1: again the massive increase in central bank liquidity, and it

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Speaker 1: is associated with the search for alternatives to the conventional currency.

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Speaker 1: So we think there's kind of this two pronged uh,

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Speaker 1: these two prompt pillars of supports for gold prices very

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Speaker 1: low he reels, but also the search for alternatives. And

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Speaker 1: I think gold stands out there alongside maybe the end

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Speaker 1: in currency space, but also to some degree some of

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Speaker 1: the crypt occurrence. What is truly original about this moment

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Speaker 1: as well, Abraham, Away from the cryptocurrencies are the extra

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Speaker 1: reasons people are looking to shun the dollar in this environment,

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Speaker 1: and it's the belief that the US becomes the source

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Speaker 1: of instability as the reopening effort starts to stall in

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Speaker 1: many states across America. We have had so many guests

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Speaker 1: on this program in the last four hours talk up

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Speaker 1: a shift away from the United States and towards Europe

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Speaker 1: and our swhere because of how badly the reopening process

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Speaker 1: is going in America and for that reason, people are

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Speaker 1: looking to fade the U. S. Dollar. Does that argument

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Speaker 1: resonate with you, Abraham, I would say a version of

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Speaker 1: the argument resonates with me, but it's it's probably a

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Speaker 1: little more flattering to the US because I think we

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Speaker 1: should continue to ascribe a fairly exceptional position to the

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Speaker 1: US outlook, and we continue to think that the US

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Speaker 1: economy will bounce back earlier and more strongly than much

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Speaker 1: of the rest of the world. But what is truth

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Speaker 1: from an investment standpoint is that the rest of the

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Speaker 1: world is unusually heavily exposed to the US, and US

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Speaker 1: s s are unusually expensive relatives to the rector of

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Speaker 1: the world, and in an environment where there are a

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Speaker 1: couple of clouds on the US horizon, including a fairly

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Speaker 1: uncertain election, I do think it makes a great deal

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Speaker 1: of sensor investors to diversify a little bit away from

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Speaker 1: the US, and I think that's really what we're seeing.

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Speaker 1: We're seeing some diversification given these kind of unusually high

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Speaker 1: valuations in high exposures from the US, and we also

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Speaker 1: think that that should give you some further upside, for instance,

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Speaker 1: for the euro against the dollar, for a couple of

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Speaker 1: the other gn alternative against the dollar. But I don't

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Speaker 1: think this is it's equivalent through writing off the US.

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Speaker 1: In fact, we think the US kind of growth exceptionalism

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Speaker 1: probably still has some legs in it left coming perhaps

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Speaker 1: out of the election, but for the next couple of months,

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Speaker 1: it does put the US on the back foot, all right, Ebrahim.

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Speaker 1: The weakening of the US dollar has been something a

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Speaker 1: lot of people are trying to understand in order to

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Speaker 1: figure out how long it has to run. You're saying

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Speaker 1: that it does have longer versus the Euro. Looking at

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Speaker 1: Bank of America Global Research, they came out and they

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Speaker 1: said that the FED stimulus, as you were talking about,

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Speaker 1: compressing real rates was the main driver of the weakening

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Speaker 1: in the dollar, which raises a question how much further

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Speaker 1: can the FED and will the FED compress real yields?

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Speaker 1: And that that is the key to the dollars trajectory

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Speaker 1: in the months to come. So what's the answer, how

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Speaker 1: much further can the Fed go? Yes? Very interesting. And

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Speaker 1: as for you real yields, I should say we were

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Speaker 1: a little bit surprised how much further you really have declined.

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Speaker 1: And in particular the declining real yield of late has

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Speaker 1: been driven by a pick up and an invasion expectation

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Speaker 1: in an environment where I think many of us don't

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Speaker 1: really expect instation to pick up so we think the

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Speaker 1: driver of the recent decline and real yields is probably

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Speaker 1: running a little bit out of steam, and that means

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Speaker 1: maybe the nominal side, nominal interest rates have to do

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Speaker 1: more of at work. But we do think that the

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Speaker 1: bulk of the move has taken place, so when it

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Speaker 1: comes to real deals as a driver, there might be

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Speaker 1: another ten twenty basis points in there, but we really

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Speaker 1: don't expect a lot further in terms of really a downside.

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Speaker 1: But it is also not the only driver. So what

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Speaker 1: I was just alluding to in terms of drivers of

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Speaker 1: the US dollar down, I think there is also a

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Speaker 1: shift in terms of expectations of growth, perhaps some optimism

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Speaker 1: for EU measures that's coming into play as well. So

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Speaker 1: if the dollar sells off, I think it's increasingly has

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Speaker 1: to come from some of these other elements rather than

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Speaker 1: a further decline. And really even him round Barry with

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Speaker 1: us from City Group right now to drive forward the

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Speaker 1: discussion and stimulus we have with us a gentleman from

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Speaker 1: the town District, North Carolina, and Patrick mckenry joins is

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Speaker 1: he has been steeped in Republican politics going back to

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Speaker 1: George Bush the younger. He was intimately involved and that's successful.

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Speaker 1: Run for president in two thousand, Congress, and thank you

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Speaker 1: so much for joining us today. What is the best

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Speaker 1: outcome for conservative Republicans in this fiscal trajectory of the

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Speaker 1: next six seven in eight weeks, for those that are

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Speaker 1: frugal and if frugal constituents, what's the best outcome? Well,

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Speaker 1: I mean, ideological concerns are different when you have a

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Speaker 1: house fire, and what we have is a is a

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Speaker 1: major house fire here, So we've got to get that righted, uh,

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Speaker 1: and then get back on a solid footing here. So

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Speaker 1: for me, I think the approach is how do you

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Speaker 1: how do you get people back in employment in safe

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Speaker 1: and effective way? So the first piece there is health safety.

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Speaker 1: Without health safety, nothing else matters. So we have to

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Speaker 1: have substantial funds so that we can have a pipeline

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Speaker 1: of treatment options that have been borne out by scientific proof,

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Speaker 1: as well as potentially a vaccine. You get that right,

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Speaker 1: that which of course requires a substantial amount of government money. UH.

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Speaker 1: With the private sector innovation and then you get to

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Speaker 1: the question of a rehiring bonus and tax policy then

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Speaker 1: centivizes businesses to get back in the in the risk business,

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Speaker 1: to safely reopen to take the proper risks and to

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Speaker 1: know that they have a foundation upon which to take

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Speaker 1: that risk. So I think that's really important. So rehiring

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Speaker 1: bonuses would be substantial and helpful, and and a tapering

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Speaker 1: down or elimination of these uh overly generous in major

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Speaker 1: parts of the country, federal benefits for unemployment. I think

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Speaker 1: the combination of a bonus for rehiring and tapering down

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Speaker 1: that unemployment benefit would be smart policy accompressment. Are you

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Speaker 1: getting frustrated by the lack of clarity, the lack of

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Speaker 1: details that you're getting from this administration in the month

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Speaker 1: of July. Yes, Look, we had a great result of

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Speaker 1: the Cares Act. We saw Pelosi in the House, Democrats

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Speaker 1: produce a partisan bill. They've got no Republican votes. They

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Speaker 1: even lost Democrat votes. It was so far to the left.

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Speaker 1: So that's not a serious point of discussion. Well, we

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Speaker 1: want to hear is that is that agenda set so

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Speaker 1: we can have Trump economy too. We just came off

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Speaker 1: of the best economy and most of our lifetimes, and

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Speaker 1: the policy set that we implemented there gave support to

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Speaker 1: what was happening in the private sector and lifted us

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Speaker 1: to new heights. Let's put that agenda out, Let's be

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Speaker 1: bold about it. Let's hear from the White House on

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Speaker 1: the details so that we can go iron out the

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Speaker 1: policy on the hill. That's really what I want to hear.

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Speaker 1: And it has been frustrating that we haven't had that

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Speaker 1: that detail set yet. The Congressman, why are they dragging

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Speaker 1: their feet? What's the reason behind it at the moment

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Speaker 1: from your standpoint, and if it making it difficult in

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Speaker 1: your constituency to talk to your constituents about why they

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Speaker 1: were it isn't a plan beyond the month of July. Well, look,

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Speaker 1: it's complicated because everything has changed. You got you like

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Speaker 1: the best health experts in the world. We're saying that

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Speaker 1: summer was gonna sort of take this thing down like

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Speaker 1: the flu season, And that was just a couple of

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Speaker 1: months ago. We had we had health experts tells not

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Speaker 1: to wear masks at the beginning of the year. So

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Speaker 1: the idea that you're gonna see two months or three

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Speaker 1: months in the future in this environment is is really hard.

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Speaker 1: So I think there's some some understanding that we wanted

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Speaker 1: to be hesitant to to just lay out a whole

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Speaker 1: broad policy path before we actually unders the confines of

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Speaker 1: this now we're in July. We need to see that

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Speaker 1: clearly from the administration, and we need to see clearly

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Speaker 1: from states and localities about school reopening, because that's a

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Speaker 1: vital economic set as well. If you can't have childcare,

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Speaker 1: it's very difficult. Fore you get back to some semblance

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Speaker 1: of normal economic life. Congressman, you're talking about lack of

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Speaker 1: cohesion and a lack of certainty around what the policies,

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Speaker 1: the specific detailed policies are going to be going forward.

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Speaker 1: And yet you're also you've admonished FED Chair J. Powell

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Speaker 1: for perhaps blurring the lines between monetary and fiscal policy.

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Speaker 1: Some argue that because there hasn't been a faster fiscal policy,

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Speaker 1: it is forced the Federal Reserve to act more and

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Speaker 1: in more varieties that go closer to fiscal policy to

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Speaker 1: make up for that gap. What do you say about that?

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Speaker 1: I mean, do you think that you have been too

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Speaker 1: slow and forced the FED to act more aggressively? Not yet.

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Speaker 1: If we if we screw this up in in late

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Speaker 1: July in August, I think that will be the case.

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Speaker 1: But I don't see that. What I what I was

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Speaker 1: reminding when we have the Secretary of the Treasury before

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Speaker 1: my committee and the Secretary I'm sorry, in the Chair

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Speaker 1: of the Federal Reserve, I always remind them that there

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Speaker 1: is this wall between monetary policy and fiscal policy, and

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Speaker 1: the Hill should not get into the weeds of monitor policy,

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Speaker 1: nor should the FED chair direct fiscal policy. And I

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Speaker 1: gotta tell you, j Pal gets high marks UH for

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Speaker 1: his fast, fast action UH and being very foresighted. His

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Speaker 1: foresight is just absolutely amazing in this environment. And when

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Speaker 1: they when they laid out main street lending, it took

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Speaker 1: a long time to get that ramped up, but it

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Speaker 1: was very clear sign of policymakers on the Hill that

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Speaker 1: we've got the lending piece. You guys get in the

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Speaker 1: stimulus piece. You guys get people connected with their employment

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Speaker 1: and you get people off the unemployment roles or give

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Speaker 1: them support so they can get back into the economy.

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Speaker 1: And that's something that we hear clearly. So I think

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Speaker 1: they've picked their lane smartly. I think they've stayed in

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Speaker 1: their lane smartly. However, really aggressively UM. And over the

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Speaker 1: long term, we're gonna have to have these FED programs

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Speaker 1: pulled back from the economy. But at this stage, we're

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Speaker 1: still trying to put this house fire out. The Congressman,

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Speaker 1: we need to get down to Asheville, will du a

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Speaker 1: remote down their teams surveillance Asheville, North Carolina. I can

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Speaker 1: see it now, Patrick Henry, thank you so much, the

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Speaker 1: tenth Congressional District of North Carolina. Right now, without question,

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Speaker 1: our interview of the day, if not our interview of

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Speaker 1: the week on the social fabric of this nation. It

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Speaker 1: would normally be an interview on trade with a former

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Speaker 1: ambassador on trade with President Obama, Mr Kirk of Texas,

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Speaker 1: but that's not the case. And these times we need

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Speaker 1: to talk to run Kirk about the Reagan High School

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Speaker 1: in Austin, Texas. We need to talk to him as

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Speaker 1: fifty seven mayor of Dallas, Texas and who we need

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Speaker 1: to talk to him about the path forward for this nation.

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Speaker 1: Ron Kirk, were honored to have you with us. UH

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Speaker 1: today we are seeing images of statues torn down. They're

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Speaker 1: not going to do that in front of the Alamo,

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Speaker 1: but we're seeing images coast to coast of statue is

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Speaker 1: being pulled down. How do we resurrect the new statues

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Speaker 1: to come? How do we rebuild this nation? With statues

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Speaker 1: that our kids can be proud of. Well, Tom, first

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Speaker 1: of all, thanks for having me, and we are taking

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Speaker 1: a turn that I didn't expect that it's certainly not

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Speaker 1: one that I haven't uh spoken to quite a bit

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Speaker 1: over the last several months. First of all, Um, Tom,

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Speaker 1: if we to me, the more important journey isn't about

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Speaker 1: which statutes we replace, what with The bigger journey is

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Speaker 1: what's in our hearts and are we gonna really get

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Speaker 1: to the systemic um matters that have allowed, for the

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Speaker 1: most parts, the overwhelming majority of blacks and Latinos and

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Speaker 1: poor people in this country to be locked out of

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Speaker 1: the economic system. And while Um and you mentioned ironically,

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Speaker 1: I graduated from John H. Reagan High School, another one

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Speaker 1: of the a school named for another one of those

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Speaker 1: Confederate generals. My concern if we spend more attention on

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Speaker 1: taking down the names and the statutes, we don't address

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Speaker 1: the systemic problem we have in some of our police

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Speaker 1: communities over the sparent treatment of blacks and poor people.

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Speaker 1: If we don't address those underlying factors that hold people

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Speaker 1: of color black economically, we really will have only just

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Speaker 1: put up a new painting pimed some new Draps declared

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Speaker 1: victory and moved forward. And I'm much more interested in

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Speaker 1: attacking the core issues that have plagued this country for now.

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Speaker 1: You know, whether you figur it's the last seventy years

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Speaker 1: or two hundred years, but far too long. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: be blunt here. You grew up in the pragmatic, toughest

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Speaker 1: now's politics of texas As, and Richards gave you guidance.

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Speaker 1: You lost to Phil Graham. There's always been a grace

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Speaker 1: underneath the toughness of Texas politics. How do we get

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Speaker 1: that grace back to Washington after a one term President Trump,

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Speaker 1: or indeed after a two term President Trump. How do

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Speaker 1: we get the grace back at the federal level? Well,

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Speaker 1: I know this this is a business show, not a

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Speaker 1: political show. But if nothing else, President Trump has taught

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Speaker 1: us all that the tone at the top matters. And

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Speaker 1: so if what people are really caring about is the

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Speaker 1: restoration of grace and civility and and and that's gonna

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Speaker 1: be a long path in and of itself, then you

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Speaker 1: have to start with the belief that this has to

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Speaker 1: be a one term president. I mean, he just does

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Speaker 1: not have it within his d n A to ever

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Speaker 1: demonstrate even a modicum amount of empathy or grace or forgiveness,

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Speaker 1: our recognition of when he's wrong. Uh. And voters, the

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Speaker 1: American people have to recognize Donald Trump didn't start uh

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Speaker 1: this degradation of our civility. Uh, he did, I think

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Speaker 1: bring to the surface and give cover to a lot

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Speaker 1: of Americans who are afraid over our changing demographics. And

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Speaker 1: we're seeing that all across the country. All you've got

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Speaker 1: to do is look at any of your news feeds

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Speaker 1: in it day and see one more incident of a

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Speaker 1: black family and Asian family and Hispanic family being attacked.

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Speaker 1: There's a boldness there that I don't think people would

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Speaker 1: have demonstrated if they weren't getting now very overt direction

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Speaker 1: from the White House. But the other thing I've told people,

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Speaker 1: we're responsible for that. If you want more civility, if

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Speaker 1: you want political leaders who are willing to find the

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Speaker 1: common ground, stop voting for all of these jerks who

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Speaker 1: go to Washington refused to compromise, see one another's as

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Speaker 1: enemy combatants, uh, versus all of us who care about

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Speaker 1: and love this country wanted to live up to our

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Speaker 1: ideals and are willing to fight passionately forward that so

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Speaker 1: it starts with the power of that vote. And I

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Speaker 1: challenged the American people vote for vote for the kind

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Speaker 1: of politicians you say in your heart you want to

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Speaker 1: see representing us. But then don't stop there. Examine your

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Speaker 1: own behavior in the workplace and in corporate America and

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Speaker 1: see whether or not we're living up to those ideals. Ambassador,

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Speaker 1: Since this is a business show, I do want to

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Speaker 1: just get a quick question in here. Given the fact

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Speaker 1: that we've got so much emphasis on rejiggering supply chains

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Speaker 1: in the wake of the pandemic, do you think that

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Speaker 1: we do need a different trade policy with this in

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Speaker 1: mind in order to bring medical supply production and other

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Speaker 1: essential services back to the United States. Well, sure, and

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Speaker 1: I know initially we we're going to talk about the

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Speaker 1: visited of President Lopez opera over the door from Mexico

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Speaker 1: to the US. But this is where trade policy does matter.

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Speaker 1: And while the new uh NAFTA, the United States Mexico

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Speaker 1: Canada Agreement is an improvement on it, but it's taken

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Speaker 1: the old car in the garage that your parents gave you,

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Speaker 1: putting a new engine in it, putting new bells and whistles,

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Speaker 1: versus having a new architecture like the Trump administration threw

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Speaker 1: away with the Transpacific Partnership, that will allow us to

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Speaker 1: have access to whether it's medical supplies or technology or

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Speaker 1: raw materials that we need to drive our economy and

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Speaker 1: more importantly, give us free access to these new emerging

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Speaker 1: markets that desperately want to grow using the best of

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Speaker 1: what we make in America. But this pandemic has demonstrated

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Speaker 1: the folly of having a terror policy that ends up

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Speaker 1: compromising our ability to access the very things we need

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Speaker 1: to fight this horrific the disease. These are many conversations,

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Speaker 1: and we need longer conversations. Ryan Kirk, We've got to

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Speaker 1: get you back on again soon. Thank you so much

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Speaker 1: for joining us today. He's a former mayor of Dallas,

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Speaker 1: Austin Gulsby at the University of Chicago. That was pretty good.

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Speaker 1: How he did that, Austin? How I got rock? You

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Speaker 1: did and you didn't even know, y gua. John and

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Speaker 1: I are teaching a class together right now on policy

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Speaker 1: and an unweld. We're going to rip up the script

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Speaker 1: right now, because folks, this is serious stuff. The third

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Speaker 1: Pillar was my book of the summer last year. It's

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Speaker 1: on community. A primal screen by Professor Rodging about how

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Speaker 1: we have to change how we adapt at a macro

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Speaker 1: basis and also at the micro basis the community. And

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Speaker 1: Austin Goulsby is one of the few guys I know

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Speaker 1: that actually practices this within his academics, as he did

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Speaker 1: with President. Awesome, you're in the room with Ragu and

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Speaker 1: you're talking to third pillar. How's America doing the answers?

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Speaker 1: Not very well right now? Yeah, it's Look, it's a

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Speaker 1: tough moment. We're in the we're in the zoom room.

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Speaker 1: We don't we're not. We're still socially distanced from one another.

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Speaker 1: But look, I don't know how. I don't quite know

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Speaker 1: how we got to where we are on the economy,

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Speaker 1: not not just the health side, but on the economy.

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Speaker 1: Because even though there's no vaccine, you've got most of

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Speaker 1: the advanced countries of the world have got it fairly contained.

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Speaker 1: They've got a handle on it. They can start coming back.

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Speaker 1: And there are only a few exceptions. The US is

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Speaker 1: one and Sweden's another where they kind of let the

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Speaker 1: virus get out of control in the name of helping

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Speaker 1: their economy. But actually, you see it, actual we hurt

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Speaker 1: their economy, that the economies in the US and Sweden

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Speaker 1: are going to have a hard time coming back if

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Speaker 1: we don't contain the virus Austin just yeah, it's it's

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Speaker 1: just h I was just gonna say, Tommy know, earlier,

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Speaker 1: we had Matt Winkler on Austin. He's a founder of

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg News Me has a wonderful column out this morning,

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Speaker 1: and Tom and I were speaking with him, and he

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Speaker 1: just kind of pointed out something that you were just saying,

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Speaker 1: which is the US has really done a poor job

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Speaker 1: relative to a lot of other countries around the world

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Speaker 1: when you look at some of the data. What do

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Speaker 1: you what do you think the solution is from here,

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Speaker 1: because it doesn't appear to be a federal effort to

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Speaker 1: combat this virus and the economic impact. Yeah, look that

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Speaker 1: that's the problem. The optimistic thing is if we don't

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Speaker 1: dawdle forever, we're not that far from getting on the

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Speaker 1: road that everybody else is on. Um. But if there's

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Speaker 1: not gonna be a big federal push, which I agree

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Speaker 1: with you it seems like there's not, then I think

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Speaker 1: it's gonna move back to the States and you're gonna

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Speaker 1: find this weird differential where you've got a few states

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Speaker 1: where they're just gonna basically ignore the the evidence or

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Speaker 1: the experience of other places, and those of in not

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Speaker 1: very short order, those economies are gonna start to suffer again.

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Speaker 1: And then in places where they're being judicious, um, they

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Speaker 1: can get out of this. And that thing is if

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Speaker 1: you look at these countries in Europe, in Asia, Australia,

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Speaker 1: New Zealand, it's not just that they're getting out of lockdown.

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Speaker 1: Their kids are going back to school. They in Norway,

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Speaker 1: they go there back in the gym's and they said

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Speaker 1: they haven't had any cases of transmission in the gyms

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Speaker 1: because they've got the they've got a handle on the

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Speaker 1: spread of the virus. The thing is, look, nobody, everybody

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Speaker 1: knows we want to get out of of this withdrawn period,

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Speaker 1: and we're all going stair crazy. But if you do

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Speaker 1: it too early, you set yourself back to square zero.

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Speaker 1: If you don't like being mostly in your house, don't

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Speaker 1: you go to get everybody to go to a bar.

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Speaker 1: Because you're gonna have to go. Everybody's gonna have to

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Speaker 1: go back into their house. So I mean, I guess

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Speaker 1: this kind of goes back, and there's something Tom and

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Speaker 1: I've been talking about before, states rights versus you know,

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Speaker 1: the heavy hand of the federal government here. Um, where

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Speaker 1: do we go from here? I mean, is this simply

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Speaker 1: states having to come, you know, come to Jesus type

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Speaker 1: of moment where they get where maybe New York and

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Speaker 1: New Jersey were several months ago. Yeah, I think that's

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Speaker 1: exactly what it is. You know, as I always say,

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Speaker 1: the virus is the boss. And I got this research

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Speaker 1: that I did with the with Chad Steverson where we

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Speaker 1: got a lot of data on people's consumer uh activity

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Speaker 1: from their phones. We have it from the from the

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Speaker 1: businesses perspective, so how many people customers walk through the

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Speaker 1: door at two point three million different businesses around the country.

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Speaker 1: And in that data, it shows very clearly it's not

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Speaker 1: policy that determines economic activity. So if you go to

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Speaker 1: cities like the quad Cities on the border of Illinois

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Speaker 1: and Iowa, where there's a shelter in place order in

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Speaker 1: Illinois and there's no shelter in place order in Iowa,

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Speaker 1: you would think that everybody be going to get their

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Speaker 1: hair cut in Iowa and not in Illinois. And so

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Speaker 1: it would show that the policy makes a big difference.

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Speaker 1: Only it's not true. People stop getting their haircut on

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Speaker 1: both sides of that border. Even though they're allowed to

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Speaker 1: go to the barber, they don't because they're afraid, and

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Speaker 1: that idea that effectively what's happening is people are trying

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Speaker 1: to feel safe, and until we get a handle on

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Speaker 1: the virus, people are not going to feel safe. And

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Speaker 1: so it moved it back. Every state has got to

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Speaker 1: get control of the spread of the virus, and if

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Speaker 1: you do that, the economy wants to come back. It's

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Speaker 1: just that if you go pull out the stops and

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Speaker 1: get the virus spreading again, the economy is gonna take

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Speaker 1: again because people are gonna say, whoa wait a minute,

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Speaker 1: I want to go out there and get sick. Awesome,

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Speaker 1: Gotta leave it there. Austin Goals, We thank you so

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Speaker 1: much for the Blue School. Chicago greatly greatly appreciate it.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and

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Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast

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Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane Before

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Speaker 1: the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Radio