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Speaker 1: Welcome back to the Betting Pros College Football podcast on

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Speaker 1: your host Scott Bogman, which you guys know hearing my

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Speaker 1: voice first means that Joe Piezapia is not with us

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Speaker 1: on this show today. We will miss him, but to

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Speaker 1: replace really myself because I'm just switching duties over to

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Speaker 1: the host role. Here is one of my best friends

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Speaker 1: in the industry, Nicholas ian Allen, CFB Winning Edge owner

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Speaker 1: and proprietor. Follow him on Twitter at CFP Winning Edge.

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Speaker 1: I work with him. I've worked with him for three

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Speaker 1: or four years at this point. Now we have our

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Speaker 1: own podcast, the CFB Winning Edge Podcast, and he has

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Speaker 1: a Patreon, Patreon dot com slash CFP Winning Edge.

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Speaker 2: Please check that out if you would. It is the

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Speaker 2: has the best depth charts.

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Speaker 1: It's so hard to find depth charts for college football here,

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Speaker 1: but Nick does the work.

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Speaker 2: And we welcome to Betting Pros. Nick.

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Speaker 1: How you doing man, doing great? Thanks for having me

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Speaker 1: absolutely so. The way we structure it is, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: throw the nationally televised games at you and you're gonna

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Speaker 1: tell me if you have them as a like or

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Speaker 1: lane and who do you like in them?

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Speaker 2: But before we go into the games.

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Speaker 1: We always reflect back at the week that was Week nine,

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Speaker 1: and these are the things that I putt that we learned. Really,

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Speaker 1: Georgia remains in a class of their own. The CFP

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Speaker 1: ratings are arguable for sure, a lot of controversy around them,

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Speaker 1: but they feel right to me. I don't know if

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Speaker 1: they feel right to you. Michigan State is legit. They

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Speaker 1: beat Michigan, and Michigan changed stuff up. They really went

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Speaker 1: after Michigan State, but Michigan State still got them late

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Speaker 1: FSU Clemson was an epic bad beat.

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Speaker 2: I don't care what anyone says.

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Speaker 1: I was super mad about getting that one wrong on

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Speaker 1: my article here. And Penn State was one hundred percent

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Speaker 1: overlooking Illinois because they played Ohio State fairly hard. So

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Speaker 1: what did you come away with from Week nine?

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Speaker 2: Day?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I agree with most everything you said. I mean, the

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Speaker 4: College Football Playoff ratings rankings. Would you know argue everyone

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Speaker 4: would argue regardless of what happened, there'd be something imperfect

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Speaker 4: with them, and there's plenty of.

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Speaker 3: Time for them to figure themselves out. The only thing

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Speaker 3: that I might push.

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Speaker 4: Back a little bit on, I'm not one hundred percent

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Speaker 4: sure Michigan State is legit in my Power ratings, there's

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Speaker 4: still twenty fifth in the country. I know, they're undefeated,

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Speaker 4: huge win. They have made an incredible turnaround. I've been,

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Speaker 4: you know, super impressed with mel Tucker, the way he's

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Speaker 4: remade that roster. Kenneth Walker does look like a Heisman

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Speaker 4: front runner.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he does.

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Speaker 4: But there's just a lot of things kind of around

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Speaker 4: the edges that I'm not ready to buy in on.

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Speaker 4: Michigan State is a legitimate, you know, big untitled contender,

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Speaker 4: playoff contender. The schedule gets much tougher from here on out,

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Speaker 4: you know, starting with Michigan and they were able to

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Speaker 4: survive that, but they've got tough games against Ohio State,

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Speaker 4: Penn State produced capable of knocking off anybody. Maryland's better

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Speaker 4: than they've been in the past. So I think Michigan

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Speaker 4: State it's highly likely they lose at least twice from

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Speaker 4: here on out. And they have there a great story,

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Speaker 4: a huge bounce back from a really you know, disappointing

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Speaker 4: start to Tucker's tenure there last year. I'm really excited

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Speaker 4: about the future. But even though they looked really.

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Speaker 3: Good on Saturday and it was a huge win. I

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Speaker 3: still have a lot of reservations about Michigan State as

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Speaker 3: kind of being, you know, the team that the brigeting

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Speaker 3: put them there, where the posters have them all all

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Speaker 3: of that. I'm not quite sure they're that good just yet.

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Speaker 2: That's fair.

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Speaker 1: I just think that this was their first big test

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Speaker 1: and they passed it.

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Speaker 2: I didn't expect them to beat Michigan. I didn't know.

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Speaker 2: I was legit surprise to see that.

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Speaker 1: And they didn't come back fashion too, and they did

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Speaker 1: it their way with five Kenneth Walker touchdowns.

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Speaker 2: So it was an impressive win.

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Speaker 1: Although I kind of I'm with you, like you have

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Speaker 1: some bigger hills to climb than Michigan for this season,

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Speaker 1: but as they beat the ones in front of them

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Speaker 1: so far. Let's go to these games, Nick, and what

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Speaker 1: we do here is we pick likes and leans, and

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Speaker 1: normally we just do it where I'll just go through

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Speaker 1: and pick the likes and then we'll talk about the leans.

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Speaker 1: But we'll just go in order of appearance on television,

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Speaker 1: and you can tell me if you think this game

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Speaker 1: is a like orlean. And the first one up is

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Speaker 1: a Thursday night game. Georgia State at number twenty four, Louisiana.

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Speaker 1: Louisiana's favored by twelve fifty three and a half is

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Speaker 1: the over overwhelming money is on Louisiana so far, right now,

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Speaker 1: eighty one percent are taking the over as far as

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Speaker 1: tickets go, Louisiana, you know they win behind the rush,

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Speaker 1: behind their rush offense twenty third in the country, nineteenth

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Speaker 1: and scoring defense too.

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Speaker 2: Who do you like in this game?

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Speaker 3: So I would lean to Louisiana.

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Speaker 4: My projections have the Regent Cajuns is a little less

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Speaker 4: than a fifteen point favorite. But that's my main set

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Speaker 4: of power ratings projections. The others are a little all

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Speaker 4: over the place. I have one that looks at talent

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Speaker 4: only that one has it closer to a touchdown, and

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Speaker 4: then one that looks at just you know, stats, statistical performance,

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Speaker 4: team performance.

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Speaker 3: That one is more in line with.

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Speaker 4: The official model, which has its over two touchdowns. So

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Speaker 4: not you know, a huge lean one way or the other,

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Speaker 4: not a big edge in any of those particular numbers.

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Speaker 4: You know, my rushing numbers actually give Louisiana a little

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Speaker 4: bit more credit for their performance.

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Speaker 3: I have them as a.

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Speaker 4: Top ten rushing offense and team performance. Both defenses I

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Speaker 4: think are are uh, you know, susceptible. So my projection

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Speaker 4: is on the over again, not a not a huge

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Speaker 4: lean one way or the other. But do see this

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Speaker 4: as as being a little more higher.

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Speaker 3: Scoring, uh than what the odds makers in the market

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Speaker 3: have it as it right now?

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Speaker 2: So you but you lean towards Louisiana.

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Speaker 3: I I, what is it like? Is the less like?

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Speaker 2: Lean is lean is less like?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess I would lean.

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Speaker 4: I would lean Louisiana, but but I don't you know,

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Speaker 4: I don't love it. I usually would would prefer to

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Speaker 4: see a little bit more of a clear advantage. But

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Speaker 4: I do think that they should be closer to a

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Speaker 4: two touchdown labor.

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Speaker 1: I like Louisiana in this game, I would lean towards

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Speaker 1: the over, but I don't know. Two really good rushing

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Speaker 1: offense tends to lean towards the under. Uh if they

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Speaker 1: both get running, and you said their defense is suspected

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Speaker 1: and the under.

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Speaker 4: The Billy Napier seems to run his offense if he

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Speaker 4: gets a two score lead in the fourth quarter, they.

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Speaker 3: Do slow it down and just try to get out

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Speaker 3: of there with a win. So that's certainly something to

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Speaker 3: consider as well.

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Speaker 1: All right, moving to the Saturday action starting a half

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Speaker 1: hour before all the other games. Army air Force air

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Speaker 1: Force is a two and a half point favorite. Thirty

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Speaker 1: seven is the over here behind the number one and

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Speaker 1: number two rush offenses. Statistically, air Force being number one,

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Speaker 1: Army being number two. Both these teams from the triple options,

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Speaker 1: so it lends towards the undernick. But the number is

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Speaker 1: air Force by two and a half. Who do you

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Speaker 1: like here?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the the under service Academy unders are

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Speaker 3: in a lot of ways for a lot of people,

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Speaker 3: just kind of an automatic bet, no matter what the

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Speaker 3: number one.

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Speaker 1: Over because this number is so low. Thirty seven is

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Speaker 1: one of the lowest numbers of the season for sure.

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Speaker 4: Absolutely, and it's and it's lower than it's been in

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Speaker 4: years past. I mean I think most most years it

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Speaker 4: opens in the in the low forties. To have it

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Speaker 4: open below forty year obviously there's been, you know, reason

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Speaker 4: to do that.

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Speaker 3: People are catching on. I still think under thirty seven

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Speaker 3: there's probably a value there. Just looking at past Air

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Speaker 3: Force Army games, the way these two teams, these programs

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Speaker 3: know each other really really well. I know Army's defense

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Speaker 3: and a lot of the measures that I look at

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Speaker 3: you know, pretty ugly statistically, but a lot of that

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Speaker 3: had to do with the game last week against wake Forest.

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Speaker 3: Completely different team, completely different style of offense. This is

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Speaker 3: going to be very, very low scoring.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I think it's going to be a twenty

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Speaker 4: seventeen type game. Wouldn't surprise me at all seventeen fourteen.

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Speaker 4: I think air Force is the better team, but I

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Speaker 4: think the margin of error is so slim that I

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Speaker 4: don't have a firm, you know, grasp one way or

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Speaker 4: the other. Talent profiles are almost exactly the same. I

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Speaker 4: think air Force might have a couple of more explosive players,

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Speaker 4: but Armies got a few as well, and regardless, big

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Speaker 4: players are going to be few and far between, I think,

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Speaker 4: so I would lean the under. I know it is

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Speaker 4: a really really low number. In fact, my projections can't

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Speaker 4: even get that low. So I'm initially on the over,

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Speaker 4: but I just think that the under is the only

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Speaker 4: player I would feel comfortable.

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Speaker 2: With this one.

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Speaker 1: It's funny that you mentioned that that they can't get

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Speaker 1: to thirty seven, because I don't think they can get

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Speaker 1: up to seventy five, which is the over on the

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Speaker 1: next game here number nine, wake Forest at UNC North

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Speaker 1: Carolina ranked or favored by two and a half seventy five.

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Speaker 1: Like I said before, is the over here? Just two

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Speaker 1: explosive offense. Wake Forest fifth in scoring so far this year,

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Speaker 1: twenty second for UNC, both great passing teams. Suspect defense

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Speaker 1: for North Carolina for sure, allowing thirty over thirty points

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Speaker 1: per game. What do you think of this game?

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Speaker 2: Name?

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Speaker 3: So, I.

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Speaker 4: First have to say my numbers. I was a bit

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Speaker 4: of an outlier in the preseason on North Carolina, and

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Speaker 4: it's scared, you know.

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Speaker 3: It, really really scared, worried about it. We spent a

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Speaker 3: lot of time talking about it on the other show.

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Speaker 4: But you know, fortunately it seems that that we had

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Speaker 4: North Carolina pegged pretty well. They were outside our top

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Speaker 4: twenty five, and they basically haven't budged since then. They're

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Speaker 4: twenty eighth right now in my Power ratings, and that

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Speaker 4: feels about right. They are certainly an explosive offense. Samhow

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Speaker 4: one of the best quarterbacks in college football. Ty Chandler

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Speaker 4: has been really good. Josh Downs has been one of

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Speaker 4: the most exciting receivers in college football. The defensive numbers

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Speaker 4: are not great. They're a ninety second in my defensive

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Speaker 4: team performance ratings. But they have a much much more

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Speaker 4: talented roster, you know, in most every talent metric that

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Speaker 4: you would look at than wake Forest.

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Speaker 3: Wake Forest has been great. They are not a top

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Speaker 3: ten team in my.

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Speaker 4: Estimation, but they have moved into the top twenty five

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Speaker 4: in my power ratings for a team and a talent profile,

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Speaker 4: you know, outside the top forty. They're forty six than

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Speaker 4: my roster strength projections and then fifty first defensively, which

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Speaker 4: doesn't you know, set up well for a game against

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Speaker 4: such a high powered North Carolina offense. But you know,

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Speaker 4: they've played incredibly well. They've played top four in my

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Speaker 4: offensive team performance numbers. But I do just think that

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Speaker 4: this is a game that North Carolina probably should win.

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Speaker 4: The projection is a little closer than i'd like. I'm

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Speaker 4: actually officially on wake Forest to cover, but I wish

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Speaker 4: I was on North Carolina quite honestly.

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Speaker 3: I think this is a game that they win by

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Speaker 3: you know, maybe a touchdown or more. I just think

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Speaker 3: that they are the more talented team, and I think

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Speaker 3: they're in a good position here to knock off wake.

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Speaker 1: Forest, and this is a great test for wake Forest here,

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Speaker 1: And I do think they're going to turn into a pumpkin.

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Speaker 1: Not sure if it's this week though, just because North

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Speaker 1: Carolina's defense has played so poorly. So I think I

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Speaker 1: had leaned towards wake Force a little bit in this game.

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Speaker 1: But I definitely like the under seventy five. I think

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Speaker 1: that number is just too big. And you know, look

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Speaker 1: North Carolina five and three playing to the over, three

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Speaker 1: and five for wake Forest playing to the over, so

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Speaker 1: they are dead even eight and eight combined. Now, this

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Speaker 1: next game is our biggest spread of nationally televised games

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Speaker 1: this week. It's Georgia, a thirty eight point favorite. Fifty

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Speaker 1: nine is the over at home against Missouri. Now, Missouri

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Speaker 1: is zero to eight against the spread this year. It

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Speaker 1: is it's been a bad year for Missouri, to say

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Speaker 1: the least. Here Georgia number one defense obviously number one

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Speaker 1: in scoring, allowing less than a touchdown a game, six

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Speaker 1: point six or just over a touchdown. I guess second

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Speaker 1: in passing yards against, second in rush yards against. Their

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Speaker 1: offense is pretty decent, two fourteenth and scoring. Missouri has offense,

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Speaker 1: they have no defense. This looks like an easy Georgia

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Speaker 1: in the over. To me, what do you think of it.

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Speaker 4: So I think Georgia has been absolutely incredible this year. Defensively,

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Speaker 4: it's one of the best we've seen in this current era,

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Speaker 4: I mean the last decade or so. They're right on

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Speaker 4: track with you Alabama at the very beginning of the decade.

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Speaker 4: As Statistically, in a lot of the ways that I

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Speaker 4: look at things, among the best that we've seen during

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Speaker 4: this period. I mean, they're number one in yards per

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Speaker 4: play allowed adjusted for garbage time and FBS opponents only

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Speaker 4: number one in points per drive point three to two

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Speaker 4: points per drive in those situations is just incredible. Yards

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Speaker 4: for pass five point one against FBS opponents EPA per

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Speaker 4: play expected points added. They are number one in the country.

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Speaker 4: They're number two in success rate, but you know that's

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Speaker 4: the only non number one in the big five statistical

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Speaker 4: categories that I play pay closest attention to. They've been

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Speaker 4: incredible on defense and they've been solid on offense. I

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Speaker 4: am not a huge believer that Stetson Bennett is, you know,

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Speaker 4: the quarterback you want if you're trying to win a

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Speaker 4: national championship.

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Speaker 3: But he's been good and.

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Speaker 4: His running ability has, you know, added something a little

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Speaker 4: different that they've needed at times on offense, especially with

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Speaker 4: the receiving unit being.

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Speaker 3: As banged up as it's been all the year.

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Speaker 4: Missouri is I mean, you mentioned the defensive numbers, they're

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Speaker 4: one hundred and twenty first, and my defensive team performance numbers.

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Speaker 3: One hundred and twenty fifth.

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Speaker 4: Against the run, we know Georgia can run it. They've

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Speaker 4: got a deep and talented running back group. Missouri has

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Speaker 4: some talent, you know, Tyler Bady has been coming off

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Speaker 4: a huge, huge game. He's a great last week, but

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Speaker 4: he's had a really good year. Missouri's also missing potentially

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Speaker 4: their starting quarterback, Connor Beslak, who started the season really well,

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Speaker 4: kind of slowed down a little bit in recent weeks,

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Speaker 4: but he got banged up in their game against Vanderbilt

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Speaker 4: last week. It's questionable as to whether or not he

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Speaker 4: will play. They've had injuries at receiver, They've had injuries

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Speaker 4: on the defensive line. But I just think thirty eight

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Speaker 4: points is too too many. Quite honestly, all three of

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Speaker 4: my projections fall well within that. I've got Georgia favored

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Speaker 4: by less than thirty five, which is, you know, getting close,

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Speaker 4: but the talent numbers, it's it's much much closer.

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Speaker 2: And so the first game Missouri covers is against Georgia.

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Speaker 4: Nick, I think so, I think too, that's a huge point.

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Speaker 4: I think it's just too many, too many points. And

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Speaker 4: I'm not certain that Missouri's you know, going to be

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Speaker 4: able to do any better offensively than you know, other

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Speaker 4: opponents Georgia has faced this year. But I just don't

300
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Speaker 4: know that they're going to be able to score quite enough.

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Speaker 4: I mean, forty five to ten sounds about right to me.

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Speaker 4: Our projection is forty four to ten. You know that

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Speaker 4: that I think is within well within the realm of possibility.

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Speaker 3: I just think that I think thirty eight is is

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00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:02,120
Speaker 3: too much. I think Missouri finds way to cover.

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Speaker 1: A lot of points. It is a lot of points.

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Speaker 1: Let's go over to Navy at Notre Dame. Notre Dame

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Speaker 1: a twenty and a half point favorite here, ranked number ten.

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Speaker 1: Forty seven and a half is the over look Navy's

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Speaker 1: been covering recently, and they're five and three against the spread,

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Speaker 1: as is Notre Dame three and five playing too overs

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00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:24,160
Speaker 1: for Navy five and three. So another eight to eight

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Speaker 1: mix here, which you know, the flat out numbers don't

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Speaker 1: help us. Seems like Notre Dame is the much more

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Speaker 1: talented team, but Navy has been impressive over the last month,

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Speaker 1: I would say, and you know they've been covering.

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Speaker 2: So what do you think of this game?

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Speaker 4: Name, yeah, this is this is similar to the Georgia

319
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Speaker 4: Missouri game in the way that my projections see it.

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Speaker 4: Notre Dame is a heavy favorite, and all three models

321
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Speaker 4: projected to score or excuse me, to cover in all

322
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Speaker 4: three models, But I have far less confidence in this

323
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Speaker 4: one because Navy is just so unique, so difficult in

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Speaker 4: a line of ways to model, especially mine that you know,

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Speaker 4: talent metrics, talent numbers are the first ingredient and the

326
00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:11,239
Speaker 4: biggest piece of the puzzle for me, and maybe just

327
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Speaker 4: doesn't have that. They're one of the least talented rosters

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Speaker 4: in the country on paper, but they do a great

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Speaker 4: job of, you know, neutralizing those talent disadvantages because of

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Speaker 4: the style of football they played, and they've gotten better

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Speaker 4: and better at that over the course of the year.

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Speaker 3: Early early on, Navy was bad.

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Speaker 4: But they've improved a lot over the course of the season.

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Speaker 4: And this is a game that Notre Dame probably should

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Speaker 4: win by more than three touchdowns. It's just whether or

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Speaker 4: not Navy can ben Notre Dame, you know, to play

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Speaker 4: their style of football. If they can steal a possession,

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Speaker 4: they can limit Notre Dame's possessions.

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Speaker 2: Which they've been doing. But against is a tough task.

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Speaker 4: It is, it is, and the last time these two

341
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Speaker 4: teams played Notre Dame, you know, blew them out.

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Speaker 3: So it's certainly you know, they they know maybe pretty well,

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Speaker 3: even though they didn't play them last year or play

344
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Speaker 3: them every other year.

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Speaker 4: So I think that there's a chance that Notre Dame

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Speaker 4: gets there, But I just I don't have a whole

347
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Speaker 4: lot of confidence in it. I think it's more likely

348
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Speaker 4: that you know, Navy plays well, loses by seventeen something

349
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Speaker 4: in that range, but on paper, Notre Dame should win

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Speaker 4: by you know, well over three touchdowns.

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Speaker 2: I would say, I think so too. I think this is.

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Speaker 1: I think my favorite play is the under of that game,

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Speaker 1: just because that is how good Navy's defense has been

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Speaker 1: and if they if it tends, if it lends towards

355
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Speaker 1: them at all, I think the under is the safest thing.

356
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Speaker 1: So that's what And if you're gonna go the under,

357
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Speaker 1: you probably take Navy too. So I guess I'm on

358
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Speaker 1: Navy as well. Just talk myself straight through that one.

359
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Speaker 1: Oklahoma ranked number eleven, are three point road favorites at

360
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Speaker 1: West Virginia the overs forty nine here. Both these teams

361
00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:56,240
Speaker 1: great against the spread six and two for okay State,

362
00:18:56,359 --> 00:18:59,480
Speaker 1: five and three for West Virginia, but they both play

363
00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:02,840
Speaker 1: way more towards the under. Combined, they'd be five ten

364
00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:07,520
Speaker 1: and one playing towards unders this season. To me, Nick,

365
00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:11,840
Speaker 1: this feels like, I don't know, Oklahoma State probably wins,

366
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Speaker 1: but I love the under in this game just because

367
00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:16,040
Speaker 1: these two teams play pretty solid defense.

368
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Speaker 2: What do you think of this one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I would tend to agree.

370
00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:23,280
Speaker 4: Oklahoma State is in a lot of ways similar to

371
00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:28,800
Speaker 4: Michigan State, similar to Iowa. And you know, we've seen

372
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Speaker 4: Iowa kind of get exposed a little bit, and that happened,

373
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Speaker 4: you know, to Oklahoma State. They lost a couple of

374
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Speaker 4: weeks ago, but they're certainly capable of beating any team

375
00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:43,760
Speaker 4: on the schedule, traveling as far as they have to

376
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Speaker 4: travel to West Virginia, which is not an easy place

377
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Speaker 4: to play in itself, is you know, a little bit

378
00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:53,679
Speaker 4: tricky being a road favorite, even you know, just three points.

379
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Speaker 3: I don't feel great about it.

380
00:19:55,960 --> 00:20:00,320
Speaker 4: My projections don't have a big edge in I you know,

381
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:03,840
Speaker 4: any of the numbers we look at. In fact, West

382
00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:07,439
Speaker 4: Virginia has a The biggest edge is for West Virginia

383
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:10,639
Speaker 4: as far as talent goes, just because you know the

384
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:14,280
Speaker 4: way I calculate things, experienced, career, production, things like that,

385
00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:17,040
Speaker 4: it just sort of adds up, you know, a few

386
00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:20,399
Speaker 4: more points in West Virginia's categories. The other you know,

387
00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 4: two models see Oklahoma State winning and covering, but not

388
00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:28,439
Speaker 4: by a very big margin. So I don't have a

389
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,840
Speaker 4: strong opinion on this game. I kind of wish our

390
00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 4: projection was on West Virginia as a home underdog. But

391
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Speaker 4: three points is you know, not too difficult. If Oklahoma

392
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,240
Speaker 4: State can find a way to win, probably going to

393
00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:43,440
Speaker 4: cover the three.

394
00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:46,960
Speaker 3: So my projection as them winning by five. Not a

395
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:48,320
Speaker 3: not a ton of confidence in that.

396
00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,280
Speaker 4: I do think Oklahoma State is the better team, but

397
00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:55,920
Speaker 4: it's a pretty difficult situation, a really long road trip

398
00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:57,920
Speaker 4: and a tough place to play, and a decent West

399
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:00,640
Speaker 4: Virginia team that is coming off a big win over Iowa.

400
00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 1: State, and I think to get to West Virginia to

401
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:05,960
Speaker 1: fly into Pittsburgh, then drive into West Virginia, go through

402
00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:07,200
Speaker 1: the mountains and get.

403
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:11,040
Speaker 3: To wat yeah Es. From Oklahoma, it's.

404
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,679
Speaker 1: Really hard to travel to West Virginia for that reason.

405
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,760
Speaker 1: So that's why West Virginia has such great home field advantage.

406
00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 1: Number three Michigan State, a three point road favorite at

407
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:23,800
Speaker 1: Purdue UH fifty four is the over here. Look, Michigan

408
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,800
Speaker 1: State one of the best teams. We both said earlier

409
00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:28,119
Speaker 1: in the show, we think they're going to turn into

410
00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:31,639
Speaker 1: a pumpkin eventually. I don't think it's too Purdue, but

411
00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,920
Speaker 1: Perdue there are some big game hunters so and they

412
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:36,440
Speaker 1: they're having a great year.

413
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Speaker 2: So what do we think of this game? Nick?

414
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, I was really really hoping when this line was

415
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:45,480
Speaker 4: first posted that it was going to be you know, six,

416
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:46,879
Speaker 4: maybe even.

417
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 2: Say it's easy Perdue get a touchdown right right.

418
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:55,720
Speaker 4: It was totally wishful thinking on my part because there's

419
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,720
Speaker 4: you know, three is the right number. I have Michigan

420
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,640
Speaker 4: State favored by a little over three and a half.

421
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 4: You know, the talent number is very very similar. But

422
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 4: actually the stats model, because it uses the last three

423
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:13,720
Speaker 4: years of weighted results, Purdue is actually favored to win

424
00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 4: that one out right by about a touchdown. So if

425
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:19,359
Speaker 4: I had to choose one side or the other, I

426
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 4: would rather be on Purdue quite honestly, to cover at home,

427
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:28,719
Speaker 4: maybe even win outright, even though my projections give just

428
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 4: you know, percentage points in favor of Michigan State winning

429
00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,959
Speaker 4: and covering. I just don't, like I said at the

430
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:39,919
Speaker 4: beginning of the show, I think that Michigan State is

431
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 4: going to lose a couple of times before the end

432
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:45,120
Speaker 4: of the season. This is a spot. You know, Purdue,

433
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 4: like you mentioned, has some success in these spots. Could

434
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:52,600
Speaker 4: be it, especially coming off of you know people I'm

435
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,120
Speaker 4: sure or patent Michigan State players on the back all

436
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 4: week on campus after the big win number three in

437
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:02,720
Speaker 4: the you know play off rankings, it sets up for

438
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:06,160
Speaker 4: a bit of a letdown spot, hangover effect, trap game,

439
00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:07,360
Speaker 4: whatever you want to call it.

440
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 3: So I wish I was on Purdue.

441
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:13,440
Speaker 1: Here, Yeah, yeah, I mean, I'm just I understand wanting

442
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:15,880
Speaker 1: to be on Purdue, But I'm taking Michigan State here.

443
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 1: They're on a roll, and I don't think they're a

444
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 1: team that is going to overlook perdue because I think

445
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,200
Speaker 1: they've been overlooked in the past, right, And I think

446
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:27,640
Speaker 1: Tucker has these guys concentrated and focused, and I'm excited

447
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:30,359
Speaker 1: about them. You know, tougher games later in the season,

448
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:33,280
Speaker 1: but I think they can beat pur Due. Baylor Number

449
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:36,160
Speaker 1: twelve rank Baylor six and a half point road favorite

450
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 1: at TCU fifty eight and a half is the over here.

451
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 1: This is my favorite nationally televised game of the week

452
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 1: to pick. I think this is Baylor in a drubbing

453
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 1: against TCU. TCU won six and one against the spread

454
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 1: this year. Patterson, their head coach, just left. There's a

455
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 1: lot of talent in TCU. But I just think that

456
00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,119
Speaker 1: the way that Baylor is playing right now, they seem

457
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 1: like one of the better teams in the country. Sixteenth

458
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:05,920
Speaker 1: ranked offense in scoring, twenty first ranked defense in scoring,

459
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,200
Speaker 1: one of the better teams to the Big twelve year nick.

460
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:09,640
Speaker 2: I like them going away in this.

461
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:12,880
Speaker 4: One, so I can repeat a lot of the same

462
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:14,920
Speaker 4: things I said about Michigan State. Not that I think

463
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:18,639
Speaker 4: Baylor is, you know, super overrated or anything, but I

464
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 4: have a ton of respect for Dave Randa, their head coach.

465
00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,400
Speaker 4: Have a ton of respect for the job that he's

466
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 4: done turning around what was a really, really tough year

467
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:31,639
Speaker 4: one and making this a much much better team. Didn't

468
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 4: have to remake the roster quite like Tucker did at

469
00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:37,159
Speaker 4: Michigan State, was actually able to elevate a lot of

470
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:42,960
Speaker 4: the pieces that were there. You know, TCU one, I

471
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:47,119
Speaker 4: agree with you that on paper, Baylor looks like the

472
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 4: better team, especially right now, the way that they've been playing,

473
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 4: the way TCU's defense has just cretered this year. The

474
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 4: one just sort of outlying factor and something that I

475
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 4: know can't model. I'm not sure anyone out there can.

476
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 4: TCU just let go. Gary Patterson been there twenty one

477
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 4: years and it's always a little bit tricky to figure out.

478
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 3: How a team is going to respond to that.

479
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, this year, we've seen Georgia Southern bounce back after

480
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:19,960
Speaker 4: its coach got fired in a big way. Usc the

481
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 4: next week bounced back in a big way. You know,

482
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 4: they're one just to scape my mind. I had it,

483
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:29,679
Speaker 4: I had it there and lost it. But you know,

484
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:33,919
Speaker 4: we've seen teams treat this and sometimes it's only for

485
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 4: just one week, but a hey, let's go out put

486
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 4: our best performance together and win one, you know, for

487
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 4: the guy that we just lost. But you know that

488
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 4: that's just not something you can always count on.

489
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 3: So I think TCU will play well. Some of its

490
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 3: best players have really been banged up.

491
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:55,920
Speaker 4: Quarterback Max Duggan, Zach Evans, five star running back, Quentin Johnston,

492
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 4: you know, future NFL receiver. The defense has been bad, bad,

493
00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 4: and so you know, my projections are on Baylor here

494
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:08,120
Speaker 4: by roughly the same amount that the odds makers are.

495
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 4: The other two models, the talent model and the stats model,

496
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:14,560
Speaker 4: actually lean towards TCU winning outright. So I think that

497
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 4: there certainly is you know, that is a possibility. I

498
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:19,640
Speaker 4: think it'll be a close game. I think TCU will

499
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 4: play inspired, but we are on Baylor by just a

500
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:24,639
Speaker 4: very small margin.

501
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 1: I was gonna say it sounds like, you know, this

502
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 1: is my favorite game in its Nick's least favorite game

503
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 1: of the week, because that's one of the potential to

504
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 1: bounce back. This one's my least favorite here because I

505
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:39,399
Speaker 1: don't at number thirteen verse number fourteen Auburn at Texas A,

506
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:40,920
Speaker 1: and M Texas A and M A four and a

507
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 1: half point home favorite four and nine and a half.

508
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:45,920
Speaker 1: I think these numbers are so good, Nick, I think

509
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 1: you give a little slight favor to the home team here.

510
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 1: I think that number is about perfect. So this is

511
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 1: a runaway game for me. What do you think?

512
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 3: So I actually kind of like this one.

513
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 4: My numbers line up on Texas A and M to

514
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,040
Speaker 4: win and cover four and a half is a little

515
00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 4: bit tricky. I will admit that my power ratings probably

516
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:07,919
Speaker 4: are a little too high on Texas A and M.

517
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:11,200
Speaker 4: They're number seven in my power ratings, and they haven't

518
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 4: quite lived up to that level of play on the field,

519
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 4: especially offensively. The way I do things respects a lot

520
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 4: of Texas A and M's offensive talent, guys like Isaiah Spiller,

521
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:27,120
Speaker 4: David A. Chain, Jayden Widermeier, and AA Smith, but they

522
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 4: just haven't been explosive or super consistent offensively. They rank

523
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:35,359
Speaker 4: sixty first and offensive team performance. The defense has been great,

524
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 4: and Auburn is not as good on the road. Bo

525
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 4: Nick's historically has not been as good on the road

526
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 4: as he's been at home, even though he's played really,

527
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:48,199
Speaker 4: really well recently. Auburn is solid but not spectacular on

528
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,880
Speaker 4: both sides of the ball thirtieth and offensive team performance

529
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 4: twenty first on defense top ten overall. So these teams

530
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 4: are pretty evenly matched, but the numbers fall and give

531
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 4: a little bit of cushion to take to A and

532
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:03,919
Speaker 4: M on all three. And I also have seen, you know,

533
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:06,679
Speaker 4: just some other smart people I follow in the space

534
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 4: who look at things analytically like I do, see a

535
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 4: little value on Texas A and M as well.

536
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 3: So of the ones we've talked about, I've got most

537
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:18,399
Speaker 3: confidence maybe on this one. I think Texas A and

538
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:22,199
Speaker 3: M wins by you know, a touchdown or more, not

539
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 3: a huge edge or margin of error. But I but

540
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:27,160
Speaker 3: I do feel a little bit better about this one

541
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 3: than some of the ones we talked about.

542
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:30,680
Speaker 1: Hard for me to give A and M credit. I mean,

543
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 1: everyone knows that as a Texas fan. By the way,

544
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:36,240
Speaker 1: Texas not on national TV, that's how bad they've been.

545
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,880
Speaker 1: So they're on FS one this week. LSU at number

546
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 1: two Alabama. I couldn't believe this nine twenty eight and

547
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 1: a half in favor of Bama. They are at home.

548
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 1: Sixty six is the over. I think, gun to my head,

549
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 1: I pick Bama here. But I hate this giant number

550
00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 1: against LSU.

551
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 4: What do you think, Nick, Yeah, I think it's just

552
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 4: too big of a number and l is super unpredictable.

553
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 4: Another situation where the coach has been fired, you don't

554
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 4: know if they're going to mail it in. Have had

555
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:12,760
Speaker 4: a ton of injuries, but they've also shown the ability

556
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 4: to bounce back. I mean, knocked off Florida earlier this year,

557
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 4: came back, you know, and played hard at the end

558
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 4: against Old Miss when that game had been decided.

559
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 3: So it doesn't seem like LSU is quit on, edoderon.

560
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 4: But I just you know, talent wise or what's available

561
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:34,440
Speaker 4: because of injuries right now is just not not able

562
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 4: to compete with Alabama. So this is a game that

563
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 4: Alabama should win comfortably. But twenty eight and a half again,

564
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 4: is just a lot of.

565
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 3: Points in a game where you know you're playing a

566
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 3: team that's got a lot.

567
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 4: Of blue chip talent like LSU. So all three of

568
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 4: my projections keep it within the twenty eight and a half. Officially,

569
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 4: my projected points spread is twenty four point eight. You know,

570
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,280
Speaker 4: that can can go a lot of ways with a

571
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 4: special team score, defensive, you know, big play on defense,

572
00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 4: short field, what have you. So not a not a

573
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 4: huge edge there, but the other two models have it

574
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 4: within three touchdowns, So feel a little bit better about that.

575
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 4: There's obviously plenty of opportunity for Alabama to blow them out.

576
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 4: But I think LSU is going to keep it respectable

577
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 4: or at least, you know, be able.

578
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 3: To cover here.

579
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gonna be I mean, it's that's always a

580
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 1: classic matchup, but twenty and a half, I just didn't

581
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 1: think i'd see that number.

582
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 2: Number four.

583
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 1: Oregon is a seven point road favorite at Washington. Fifty

584
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 1: one's the over here. Oregon terrible against the spread this year,

585
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:48,200
Speaker 1: two and six, but this feels like a number that

586
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 1: they can cover. Washington has been bad, particularly on offense

587
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:54,719
Speaker 1: one hundred and fourth and scoring seventy second, passing one

588
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 1: hundredth and rushing. They just can't put it together. Great

589
00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 1: defensively seventeenth first again the past in ninety seventh against

590
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 1: the rush. But I mean, I don't know, this feels

591
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 1: like an Oregon drubbing because Washington just doesn't seem to

592
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 1: have it on offense, particularly this year.

593
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, and my projections, Washington's probably the team that we've

594
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 3: got been the most wrong about from a full season perspective.

595
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 3: So keep keeping that in mind. We do project Washington

596
00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 3: to cover here. I mean, it's a rivalry game, it's

597
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 3: in Seattle.

598
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 4: Washington still does play good defense, and you know, especially

599
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 4: against the pass, and Oregon, as you mentioned, just hasn't

600
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 4: quite you know, been as impressive is as you might

601
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 4: expect given their rankings, given the win over Ohio State.

602
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 4: So I think it'll be close. I see multiple paths

603
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 4: to Washington covering. But I do agree that, you know,

604
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 4: Washington has been incredibly disappointing this year, and so it's

605
00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 4: it's really difficult to trust them. But I would lean

606
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 4: toward Washington losing close here and Oregon just maybe not

607
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 4: quite being able to pull away.

608
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna go opposite with you. I think

609
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 1: that it's a good rushing team versus you know, Washington's

610
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 1: good against the past, they're not so great against the run.

611
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 1: I just think that's the matchup to watch for in

612
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 1: this game. So I like Oregon going away. Indiana at

613
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 1: number seven, Michigan a twenty point favorite here for Michigan

614
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 1: fifteen and a half is the over. Indiana miserable against

615
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 1: the spread this year, two and six. Michigan is six

616
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 1: and two. This seems like a good team versus a

617
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 1: beat up team that has not been so great.

618
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 2: Nick looks like an easy Michigan win here.

619
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:44,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, it does, and I see I mean literally no edge.

620
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 4: My projection is Michigan to win by twenty. You know,

621
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:51,600
Speaker 4: Indiana's playing likely a third stringer at quarterback for the

622
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 4: second straight week. Stephen Carr at running back is bounced back,

623
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 4: you know, had a solid game last week. But Michigan

624
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 4: is much better against the run than Maryland was. Maryland's

625
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 4: triple digits in rushing team performance on defense, Michigan's top fifteen.

626
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 4: So don't think that Indiana's really going to be able

627
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 4: to move the ball. I think Michigan is, you know,

628
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:17,840
Speaker 4: obviously going to be super motivated, wanting to come back

629
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 4: make a statement after losing last week. Don't know that

630
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 4: I trust them to cover three touchdowns in a conference game,

631
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 4: but twenty seems like the right number, and it's what

632
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 4: my model projects.

633
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 1: And the last game we have up here USC at

634
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 1: Arizona State. Arizona State is a eight and a half

635
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 1: point favorite. This line just confuses me. Both these teams

636
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 1: terrible against the spread though, three and five for USC,

637
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:46,720
Speaker 1: three and five for ASU. They're eight to eight combined

638
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 1: playing to over unders. This is a bit of a

639
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 1: runaway game for me because I just don't know which

640
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:54,880
Speaker 1: Arizona State team is going to come out. USC keeps

641
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 1: flipping back and forth between their quarterbacks. I think USC

642
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:03,600
Speaker 1: is probably the more talented team here, but ASU has

643
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 1: been playing better overall, So I think I would lean

644
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 1: towards as U.

645
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:10,759
Speaker 2: But I don't like this game at all. What do

646
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:11,439
Speaker 2: you think? Your name?

647
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 4: I agree, I can't trust either team. Both have been

648
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:20,439
Speaker 4: disappointing compared to where I projected them preseason. Arizona State,

649
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:23,360
Speaker 4: especially on the flip side of how we kind of

650
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:26,279
Speaker 4: got North Carolina right. Arizona State was one we were

651
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 4: a little too high on compared to a lot of

652
00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:33,279
Speaker 4: other folks out there, and they've really disappointed, especially the

653
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 4: last two games. And I can't really trust either team

654
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:39,440
Speaker 4: right now. You said, you know, don't know which one

655
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:42,960
Speaker 4: is going to show up. I think I actually.

656
00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:47,920
Speaker 3: Might like the under in this one if I were to,

657
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 3: if I were to pick one side or the or

658
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 3: you know, have to make a play on this one,

659
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 3: I think I would lean toward the under. Eight and

660
00:34:57,160 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 3: a half seems like a lot of points.

661
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 4: But I can't really trust USC to, you know, put

662
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 4: together a full game, So I agree with you.

663
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 3: I probably stay away with on that side. But I

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00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:08,760
Speaker 3: think I like the under.

665
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:12,400
Speaker 1: If anything, well, those are all the nationally televised games,

666
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:14,759
Speaker 1: so good luck in all your bets. I want to

667
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:17,759
Speaker 1: thank Nick again for stopping by with us. Please check

668
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 1: out him on Twitter at CFP Winning Edge and his

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00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 1: patreon c if you winning Patreon dot com slash CFP

670
00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:25,919
Speaker 1: winning Edge. If you are looking for that, I'm telling

671
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:29,360
Speaker 1: you best depth charts you have seen anywhere on the internet.

672
00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:30,800
Speaker 2: He does issury reports.

673
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 1: It's one of the first stops I make when I'm

674
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 1: looking at all my stuff for the week and writing

675
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 1: my article for Bettingpros dot com. And please check out

676
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 1: Betting Pros of course, you know bringing you this podcast

677
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 1: right now. There is a wealth of information over there.

678
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:46,360
Speaker 1: You can click on a matchup, you can see the

679
00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 1: number at every single book. There's articles by all the

680
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 1: great writers. There's this video, there's news updates, There's all

681
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:57,840
Speaker 1: kinds of great stuff over Betting Pros for every sport,

682
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:01,440
Speaker 1: not just college football. It is an aggregator for everything betting,

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00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:03,360
Speaker 1: so please check it out if you guys would.

684
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 2: Joe will be back next week, so we will see

685
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:07,759
Speaker 2: you guys. Then. Good luck and we will see you

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00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 2: guys next week. Take it easy. Everybody