1
00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:26,119
Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

2
00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:33,199
Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. Great to have you

3
00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:36,640
Speaker 2: joining us for our National League betting preview. We touch

4
00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:41,200
Speaker 2: on all fifteen teams, the East, the Central, and the West,

5
00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:44,960
Speaker 2: and the best ways to bet the National League in

6
00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:48,479
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two. Brendan las Sheen with Shawan Zilo and

7
00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:51,320
Speaker 2: Colin Witchurch. We also have an episode out on the

8
00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:54,200
Speaker 2: Action Network podcast that covers the American League. So if

9
00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:57,120
Speaker 2: you're looking for the fifteen teams and the American League

10
00:00:57,120 --> 00:00:59,960
Speaker 2: that you might advice on or how to approach the season,

11
00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:03,760
Speaker 2: we have a full breakdown on that podcast, so be

12
00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:06,680
Speaker 2: sure to be on the lookout there and take a listen.

13
00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:10,080
Speaker 2: And as a reminder, we also have a brand new

14
00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:14,880
Speaker 2: MLB centric Action Network betting podcast. It's called Payoff Pitch.

15
00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:17,280
Speaker 2: During the twenty twenty two season, we're going to have

16
00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:20,280
Speaker 2: you covered every Tuesday and Friday to break down the

17
00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:25,080
Speaker 2: day and night baseball slates. If you're looking to find it,

18
00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:29,840
Speaker 2: we have our launch episode, our soft launch episode, if

19
00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:32,759
Speaker 2: you will, our first episode. It's in the description here

20
00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:35,440
Speaker 2: on this podcast so you can find it and check

21
00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:37,360
Speaker 2: it out. That's where we will come to you throughout

22
00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:41,520
Speaker 2: the course of the twenty twenty two Major League Baseball season.

23
00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:44,760
Speaker 2: Here on the tam Pod, we're getting you set for

24
00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:47,760
Speaker 2: what to watch for in the National League and we

25
00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:51,680
Speaker 2: will start in the NL East with the New York Mets.

26
00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:55,840
Speaker 2: Earlier in the month, Buck Show Walter, he laughed he

27
00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:58,840
Speaker 2: was almost brushing off his shoulders when he found out

28
00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:01,320
Speaker 2: the Mets have the project to number one rotation in

29
00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:04,600
Speaker 2: Major League Baseball according to MLB dot Com, the Mets

30
00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:07,400
Speaker 2: at ninety one and a half wins projected in twenty

31
00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:10,600
Speaker 2: twenty two. The Mets last year were seventy seven and

32
00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:14,600
Speaker 2: eighty five, finishing third in the East. Sean Zarillo, he's

33
00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:17,919
Speaker 2: an Action Network contributor. Colin wit Church, Action Network editor,

34
00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:21,440
Speaker 2: joining me once again. So let's start with the Mets there, Sean,

35
00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:24,560
Speaker 2: are you buying the Mets and they've also got some

36
00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:27,639
Speaker 2: promise in this lineup too if they make strides this season?

37
00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:29,480
Speaker 2: Are you in on the Mets? What's the projection for

38
00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:30,520
Speaker 2: the Mets this season?

39
00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:33,600
Speaker 3: I'm not, and that might'st surprising people. I'm a Mets fan.

40
00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:35,440
Speaker 3: I bet on the Mets futures for the first time

41
00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:39,480
Speaker 3: last year. Obviously that didn't work out. I'm pretty much

42
00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:41,400
Speaker 3: in line with the market this year. There's actually a

43
00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:44,480
Speaker 3: low of seventy eight as a projection from Davenport, which

44
00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:46,760
Speaker 3: I don't know how they got to that number, but

45
00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:49,640
Speaker 3: I mean, even if you remove that from the sample,

46
00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:53,080
Speaker 3: that basically lines everything up with where it should be.

47
00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:56,200
Speaker 3: So Pakoda makes the Mets a slight favorite in the division.

48
00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:58,480
Speaker 3: They would have them at plus one twenty seven implied.

49
00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:02,800
Speaker 3: Other projections face for the Braves average everything out. It

50
00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:06,079
Speaker 3: kind of neutralizes nothing for me on the Mets. A

51
00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:09,440
Speaker 3: Starling Marte most runs prop it's sixty to one, may

52
00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:11,400
Speaker 3: be worth a pope, but beyond that, nothing for.

53
00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:14,880
Speaker 2: Me, all right, So Colin in the lineup, they mentioned Yo, Shaw,

54
00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:18,320
Speaker 2: mentioned Marte. They've got Mark Canna at Waro Escobar. Of course,

55
00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:22,360
Speaker 2: the addition of Scherzer to the rotation. There's some depth there.

56
00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:25,880
Speaker 2: Carrasco at the bottom end as well. Your outlook of

57
00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:28,840
Speaker 2: the Mets Colin In twenty twenty two.

58
00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:33,040
Speaker 4: And Lizzillo here. There's less quantifiable data as to why

59
00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:36,200
Speaker 4: I'm against the Mets here. It's mostly just because it's

60
00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:39,160
Speaker 4: the Mets, and the Mets like to screw things up.

61
00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:42,280
Speaker 4: It's one of the most incomptently run organizations and all

62
00:03:42,320 --> 00:03:44,480
Speaker 4: of baseball. They have a lot of players with a

63
00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:47,800
Speaker 4: lot of injury risks. Obviously, the gram insurres are at

64
00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:50,760
Speaker 4: the top of that rotation is deadly. If they both

65
00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:53,200
Speaker 4: stay healthy for the entire season, they're going to be

66
00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:56,560
Speaker 4: really tough to beat. Even their big offseason acquisitions Starling Marte,

67
00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:58,720
Speaker 4: who I love. I have a lot of fantasy stock

68
00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:01,880
Speaker 4: in Starling Marte this year, has had some injury issues

69
00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:05,080
Speaker 4: during his career. I just think the Braves are a

70
00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:07,000
Speaker 4: better team right now, and I think the Mets are

71
00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:10,840
Speaker 4: often overvalued entering the season because there's always these high

72
00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:15,800
Speaker 4: expectations in them. So I'm going under here, don't. I

73
00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:19,240
Speaker 4: think that the line is at a number where I

74
00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:21,440
Speaker 4: don't see a lot of value embtting the over under.

75
00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:24,080
Speaker 4: But if push comes to shove, I like the under here,

76
00:04:25,080 --> 00:04:25,920
Speaker 4: So that's where I'm going.

77
00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:28,800
Speaker 2: I feel like I disrespected those Atlanta Braves they won

78
00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:31,680
Speaker 2: the World Series last year, did not lead with them,

79
00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:33,520
Speaker 2: but with the Mets. I guess we just kind of

80
00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:35,440
Speaker 2: got the Mets out of the way based on both

81
00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:37,960
Speaker 2: of your commentary, So that's maybe a good thing. Let's

82
00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:39,800
Speaker 2: give the Braves they're due. Braves are the reigning World

83
00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:43,520
Speaker 2: Series champions. They beat the Astros last year in the

84
00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:46,520
Speaker 2: Fall Classick. They won eighty eight games to win the

85
00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:49,960
Speaker 2: National League East eighty eight wins, seventy three losses. They're

86
00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:54,120
Speaker 2: projected win total across many sports books ninety one and

87
00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:57,080
Speaker 2: a half wins. MLB dot Com has them as the

88
00:04:57,160 --> 00:05:00,080
Speaker 2: number eight rotation in baseball, led by Max Free and

89
00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:03,839
Speaker 2: then the lineup. Even with Freddy Freeman in LA with

90
00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:06,880
Speaker 2: the Dodgers, they still have high hopes this lineup can

91
00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:10,520
Speaker 2: deliver Sean the Atlanta Braves. If you're down on the Mets,

92
00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:11,839
Speaker 2: are you high on the Braves?

93
00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:12,400
Speaker 4: I am.

94
00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:14,800
Speaker 3: I have their win total projected closer to ninety four,

95
00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:16,760
Speaker 3: so I was looking at the over ninety and a

96
00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:20,000
Speaker 3: half kind of leaning over. My trepidation is the Ronald

97
00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:23,320
Speaker 3: the Kuna Junior injury. It's much easier for me to

98
00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:27,080
Speaker 3: project a team like we talked about with Marte for

99
00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:29,600
Speaker 3: the Mets, right where you know he might miss twenty

100
00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:32,280
Speaker 3: games with an injuriador in this season. It's much easier

101
00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:34,680
Speaker 3: for me to trust the win total when a player

102
00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:36,600
Speaker 3: is starting the season healthy and I know he might

103
00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:39,839
Speaker 3: get injured. Later than it is to expect a player

104
00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:43,000
Speaker 3: coming back from a significant injury to return by his

105
00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:46,280
Speaker 3: expected date and then perform the expectations. So I had

106
00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:48,800
Speaker 3: some trepidation about the Braves over because if Acutney doesn't

107
00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:50,599
Speaker 3: come back by May when he says, if he doesn't

108
00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:53,320
Speaker 3: perform back to his level where he was last year,

109
00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:57,280
Speaker 3: maybe they fall short of where the market hasn't projected.

110
00:05:57,839 --> 00:05:59,640
Speaker 3: But like I said, I have them at ninety four.

111
00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:02,720
Speaker 3: The market consensus projection has them at ninety one and

112
00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:05,160
Speaker 3: a half. There's actually some over ninety and a half

113
00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:07,520
Speaker 3: out there at Caesars. I thought that was worth a play.

114
00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:10,159
Speaker 3: There's an over eighty nine at win bet. You don't

115
00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:12,880
Speaker 3: have a choice at that number. That's five wins lower

116
00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:14,839
Speaker 3: than my projection. It's two and a half wins lower

117
00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:17,520
Speaker 3: than the market projection. So the over eighty nine at

118
00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:19,839
Speaker 3: win bet is absolutely worth a play on the Braves

119
00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:22,479
Speaker 3: and then maybe Divisional and World Series of value too.

120
00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:25,280
Speaker 3: I'm not playing it personally again because of the Ecunya stuff,

121
00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:27,640
Speaker 3: but you could probably project them as low as plus

122
00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:29,800
Speaker 3: one thirty to win the Vision, as low as plus

123
00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:31,640
Speaker 3: nine hundred to win the World Series. Now I could

124
00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:34,160
Speaker 3: get them as high as plus fourteen hundred projection, which

125
00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:38,080
Speaker 3: wouldn't offer value. But across the board the Braves might

126
00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:40,279
Speaker 3: be a little bit overlooked here. It just sort of

127
00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:42,000
Speaker 3: depends on Acuney's health when he returns.

128
00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:45,320
Speaker 2: As far as the rotation, Colin Freed projects to be

129
00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:49,680
Speaker 2: a bona fide top bench starter. Ian Anderson had a

130
00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:51,440
Speaker 2: pretty good He's been off to a good start in

131
00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:53,880
Speaker 2: his career. Charlie Morton did get hurt in the World Series,

132
00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:55,600
Speaker 2: but they hope to get him back to sure things

133
00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:58,320
Speaker 2: up up top. They go out and get Matt Olsen,

134
00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:00,040
Speaker 2: so they make up for the Freeman loss and t

135
00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:03,920
Speaker 2: for Olsen from the Oakland A's your thoughts on the

136
00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:05,839
Speaker 2: Braves the Randy Champs in twenty twenty two.

137
00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:08,599
Speaker 4: Yeah, the lineup is basically what we saw in twenty

138
00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:14,880
Speaker 4: twenty one, with few differences. Obviously, they remade their entire

139
00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:16,640
Speaker 4: outfield at the deadline last year. That's one of the

140
00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:19,760
Speaker 4: reasons they won the World Series. Jorge Hilaires not back

141
00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:24,920
Speaker 4: the World Series MVP, but the lineup is still solid.

142
00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:28,480
Speaker 4: You mentioned Olsen for Freeman. That's a negligible change from

143
00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:31,360
Speaker 4: a production From a pure number standpoint, What I really

144
00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:36,320
Speaker 4: like about the rotation against the Mets is is its depth.

145
00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:38,360
Speaker 4: The Braves don't have the front end that the Mets have.

146
00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:42,080
Speaker 4: Into Gramin Sures or Freed is a very good starting pitcher.

147
00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:45,400
Speaker 4: Ian Anderson is young and taking a leap Charlie Morton

148
00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:47,520
Speaker 4: if he comes back for health, which is far from

149
00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:50,600
Speaker 4: a guarantee at thirty eight years old. But they've got

150
00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:53,120
Speaker 4: guys down the line. Oscar you know, is a good

151
00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:56,840
Speaker 4: back end starter. Kyle Wright showed some competence toward the

152
00:07:56,920 --> 00:07:59,400
Speaker 4: end of last season. I like Tucker Davidson. We're gonna

153
00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:03,920
Speaker 4: see more Kyle Muler this year, probably their top pitching prospect.

154
00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:06,440
Speaker 4: I just think this team is better equipped to deal

155
00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:08,600
Speaker 4: with the grind of one hundred and sixty two games

156
00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:11,080
Speaker 4: and the injuries that come with it than any other

157
00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:13,680
Speaker 4: team in the division. I do think that, as you

158
00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:16,720
Speaker 4: both mentioned, they're being overlooked, which is crazy for a

159
00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:19,120
Speaker 4: defending World Series champion. I'm going to go over on

160
00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:21,480
Speaker 4: their win total, and yeah, I'll definitely be dabbling in

161
00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:22,880
Speaker 4: some of their future odds as well.

162
00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:26,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, it feels as if, like you know, folks forget

163
00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:30,200
Speaker 2: like Olsen production wise can do just enough to replace Freeman.

164
00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:32,320
Speaker 2: But Freeman is such you know the contract he's in

165
00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:34,840
Speaker 2: LA now, which is that it feels like a you're

166
00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:37,480
Speaker 2: a reigning champion. He was the face of the lineup.

167
00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:39,960
Speaker 2: Just that that feels like a very public reaction to

168
00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:42,480
Speaker 2: why folks might be down on the Braves losing their

169
00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:45,120
Speaker 2: anchor in the lineup. That brings us now to the

170
00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:48,480
Speaker 2: Philadelphia Phillies. They are projected at eighty six and a

171
00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:53,400
Speaker 2: half wins on many books. The Phillies in twenty twenty one,

172
00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:57,120
Speaker 2: eighty two and eighty they finished six and a half

173
00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:59,840
Speaker 2: back of those Atlanta Braves, so just over five hundred.

174
00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:02,720
Speaker 2: So the Phillies are expected to take a little bit

175
00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:05,400
Speaker 2: of a leap based on how they finished last year.

176
00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:07,920
Speaker 2: Pa Coda's got in an eighty six point three projected

177
00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:10,320
Speaker 2: wins for the season. Sean, what do you make of

178
00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:12,960
Speaker 2: the Phillies? This is a team that could potentially be

179
00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:15,960
Speaker 2: in the wild card conversation or you know, where do

180
00:09:15,960 --> 00:09:17,480
Speaker 2: you stand in the Phillies for twenty twenty two?

181
00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:20,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, if the Phillies make October, they're gonna be dangerous,

182
00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:23,640
Speaker 3: you know, especially getting that guaranteed three game playoff series

183
00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:25,840
Speaker 3: where you're gonna have Noah and Wheelers starting two of

184
00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:28,560
Speaker 3: those games. And I think Ranger Suarez is pretty good too,

185
00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:33,080
Speaker 3: so the Phillies. Regardless of how you feel about the Phillies,

186
00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:37,679
Speaker 3: just look at the public projections Fangrafts Pacoda. They put

187
00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:39,760
Speaker 3: them between twenty and twenty eight hundred to win the

188
00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:42,480
Speaker 3: World Series. There's a thirty three hundred out there at

189
00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:45,199
Speaker 3: points bet. I think that's worth betting. The Phillies are

190
00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:48,280
Speaker 3: probably the best World Series long shot bet in that

191
00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:50,800
Speaker 3: like twenty five to fifty to one range right now.

192
00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:53,240
Speaker 3: They just have a lot of upside and they seem

193
00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:55,280
Speaker 3: to have the pieces where if they get to the playoffs,

194
00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:58,760
Speaker 3: they're gonna be dangerous. They can hit, and there's gonna

195
00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:01,000
Speaker 3: be moments where if all the guys in that lineup

196
00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:04,040
Speaker 3: are going they're going to be very difficult to outslug.

197
00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:07,320
Speaker 3: They have clear top end pitchers. The bullpen is just

198
00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:10,600
Speaker 3: the big concern. But I make their divisional odds closer

199
00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:12,679
Speaker 3: to plus four hundred. You can get a plus four

200
00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:14,480
Speaker 3: to fifty at Bett Rivers, and like I said, the

201
00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:17,559
Speaker 3: World Series odd probably the best long shot World Series

202
00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:19,720
Speaker 3: beat on the board plus thirty three hundred points.

203
00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:23,960
Speaker 2: Back the Phillies rotation cracks NLB dot COM's top ten,

204
00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:28,120
Speaker 2: led by Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, Gibson, and Nefflin. That's their

205
00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:32,360
Speaker 2: projected five for the season colin Philadelphia, Phillies eighty six

206
00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:34,960
Speaker 2: and a half wins. They're projected total. How are you

207
00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:36,199
Speaker 2: assessing the Phillies.

208
00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:38,640
Speaker 4: God, we were off to such a good start there

209
00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:41,000
Speaker 4: with Zerrilla and I agreeing on the first two teams.

210
00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:45,240
Speaker 4: I am down on the Phillies. I understand why people

211
00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:48,040
Speaker 4: would be optimistic about that. They brought in Cassianos, they

212
00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:51,040
Speaker 4: brought in Schwarber. That's a whole lot of thumb with

213
00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:54,560
Speaker 4: a short porch there in Philadelphia. They're gonna have a

214
00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:58,200
Speaker 4: really fun offense with Nola and Wheeler fronting the rotation.

215
00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:01,320
Speaker 4: But there's a lot of questions around those guys. I

216
00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:05,360
Speaker 4: don't believe in this rotation behind Nolt and Wheeler. Gibson

217
00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:08,840
Speaker 4: was all smoking mirrors for the Rangers last year before

218
00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:12,760
Speaker 4: going to Philadelphia. You're relying a lot on Rangers Suarez

219
00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:15,000
Speaker 4: duplicating what he did last year, and I don't know

220
00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:18,280
Speaker 4: if that's gonna happen. Eflyn has serious injury question marks

221
00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:21,320
Speaker 4: throughout his career, and defensively, I think this team's going

222
00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:24,000
Speaker 4: to be pretty bad. I know Schwarber's projected at d

223
00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,680
Speaker 4: H right now. They're gonna have to balance defense for

224
00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:31,199
Speaker 4: offense here where you might see some Bryce Harper in

225
00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:34,560
Speaker 4: center field because they're relying on Matt Veerling to man

226
00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:36,960
Speaker 4: center field right now, And if you throw him on

227
00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:39,959
Speaker 4: the bench, that means Harper's moving to center and Schwarber's

228
00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:42,400
Speaker 4: moving to the outfield and who's catching the ball out

229
00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:46,240
Speaker 4: there in that case. So defense is one of the

230
00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:48,800
Speaker 4: toughest things to quantify when you're making a projection about

231
00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:50,760
Speaker 4: a team preseason. But I think the Phillies are going

232
00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:53,560
Speaker 4: to have a bad defense. And last year they had

233
00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:55,720
Speaker 4: the worst bullpen in baseball and they didn't do a

234
00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:58,760
Speaker 4: lot to improve it. Corey Knabel was their great band

235
00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:05,080
Speaker 4: aid with his long, lengthy career injury history. Jery's Familia,

236
00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:08,720
Speaker 4: brad Hand, these are all names that people know, but

237
00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:12,000
Speaker 4: they're just not pitchers who are very good anymore. So

238
00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:14,240
Speaker 4: I'm down on the Phillies. I think that their playoff

239
00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:16,720
Speaker 4: drought continues. I'm projecting them to be right around a

240
00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:18,720
Speaker 4: five hundred team again, So I'm going under on their

241
00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:19,280
Speaker 4: win total.

242
00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:22,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, its like you know, after you're both of what

243
00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:25,880
Speaker 2: you said about the about the Braves and having a

244
00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:28,920
Speaker 2: pretty good year after winning the World Series and being

245
00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:31,280
Speaker 2: down on the Mets. Even the Phillies like feels the

246
00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:34,120
Speaker 2: public though, is very high on this division, like seeing

247
00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:38,000
Speaker 2: three teams to finish maybe above eighty six wins. Phillies

248
00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:39,959
Speaker 2: also cracked the top ten according to the NLB dot

249
00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:43,000
Speaker 2: Com and lineups for twenty twenty two, number seven lineup

250
00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:48,240
Speaker 2: in baseball. Moving on, let's head to Miami Marlins seventy

251
00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:50,400
Speaker 2: six and a half wins their projected win total. Marlins

252
00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:53,680
Speaker 2: won sixty seven games last year sixty seven and ninety five,

253
00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:57,920
Speaker 2: finishing fourth in the National League East. I think this

254
00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:00,160
Speaker 2: is a team we talked about on Payoff Pitch, our

255
00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:04,080
Speaker 2: new MLB betting podcast that you can find on the

256
00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:06,520
Speaker 2: Action Network, So be sure to check it out. Sean Zilla,

257
00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:08,320
Speaker 2: you are into. I think the Marlins is one of

258
00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:09,679
Speaker 2: the They were one of the first teams you decided

259
00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:10,760
Speaker 2: to bet on for this season.

260
00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:14,600
Speaker 3: Absolutely, I really like this over on the Miami Marlins.

261
00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:17,800
Speaker 3: They were popular over team last year and they fell

262
00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:21,199
Speaker 3: shy of expectations, underachieved by five wins. They made the

263
00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:24,199
Speaker 3: playoffs back in twenty twenty that expanded playoff in the

264
00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:27,160
Speaker 3: short season, but they had overachieved that season, so had

265
00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:29,240
Speaker 3: some good luck made the playoffs, had some bad luck

266
00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:32,360
Speaker 3: fell under their win total. Now, all projections this year

267
00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:34,920
Speaker 3: liked the Marlins to finish with at least seventy five wins.

268
00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:38,319
Speaker 3: Market average seventy seven point two, so about two and

269
00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:41,800
Speaker 3: a half wins over expectation. I have eighty point four

270
00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:45,280
Speaker 3: from zips and I have them at I believe seventy

271
00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:47,960
Speaker 3: nine point nine, so I'm I'm right under five hundred.

272
00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:50,400
Speaker 3: I'm not even the highest projection out there. I'd bet

273
00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:52,640
Speaker 3: this over to seventy six and a half. I just

274
00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:54,880
Speaker 3: think the Marlins are a team that project to move

275
00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:56,720
Speaker 3: forward in the next few years. They have a lot

276
00:13:56,720 --> 00:14:00,520
Speaker 3: of high upside pitching. They've started to spend money Jey

277
00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:02,839
Speaker 3: Hilaire other guys to add to their lineup. So I

278
00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:05,480
Speaker 3: think the Marlins are finally looking to improve and move

279
00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:07,440
Speaker 3: up the world. And even though you said it's a

280
00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:09,400
Speaker 3: tough division, I still like them to finish over seventy

281
00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:10,079
Speaker 3: five and a half onins.

282
00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:13,600
Speaker 2: Here the rotation Colin has some promise as well, some

283
00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:16,440
Speaker 2: young stars that could potentially emerge. You with Sean on

284
00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:19,000
Speaker 2: this one, but the twenty twenty two Marlins.

285
00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:21,840
Speaker 4: Thankfully, Yes, I am. The Marlins have some of the

286
00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:26,080
Speaker 4: most fun young talent in baseball, and we're finally starting

287
00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:28,960
Speaker 4: to see them show through. I love that rotation. I

288
00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:34,960
Speaker 4: love Sandy al Contra, I love Pablo Lopez, and Trevor

289
00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:37,720
Speaker 4: Rodgers is one of the most underrated pitchers out there

290
00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:40,800
Speaker 4: after his debut last year, and they have more coming.

291
00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:45,000
Speaker 4: They have Edward Cabrero we saw some of last year.

292
00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:48,800
Speaker 4: We could even see Max Meyer this year, their first

293
00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:50,560
Speaker 4: round pick in twenty twenty. He's not even on the

294
00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:54,080
Speaker 4: forty man right now. But the Marlins are aggressive in

295
00:14:54,360 --> 00:14:56,960
Speaker 4: promoting prospects when they're ready. They don't usually screw around

296
00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:58,800
Speaker 4: with service time, which is kind of surprising for a

297
00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:02,480
Speaker 4: team as cheap as the Marlins have historically been. So

298
00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:05,800
Speaker 4: I think this team has a legitimate chance at finishing

299
00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:08,040
Speaker 4: in third place in this division. You saw how down

300
00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:10,440
Speaker 4: I am on the Phillies. I think this team's going

301
00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:13,360
Speaker 4: to take a leap. They have a lot of competence

302
00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:17,440
Speaker 4: in their starting lineup and their pitching staff is it

303
00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:21,160
Speaker 4: doesn't have the high end talent of Philly or the Mets,

304
00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:24,120
Speaker 4: but it has depth and it has like either of

305
00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:26,800
Speaker 4: those teams would take Jesus Luzardo as its number five

306
00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:30,280
Speaker 4: starting pitcher, and that's where he is in Miami right now.

307
00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:32,920
Speaker 4: So I'm very high on the Fish. Shout out to

308
00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:35,160
Speaker 4: Tanner McGrath, who will be very happy to hear both

309
00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:36,280
Speaker 4: me and Sean say that.

310
00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:39,520
Speaker 2: Trevor Rodgers your twenty twenty one Rookie of the Year

311
00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:42,480
Speaker 2: runner up to Jonathan India. So there is promise in

312
00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:46,680
Speaker 2: that Marlins rotation to finish up the NL East. The

313
00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:52,240
Speaker 2: Washington Nationals they've got some additions, questions too, but additions

314
00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:54,960
Speaker 2: in their lineup Corse Soto stage, you're bringing Nelson Cruz,

315
00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:58,320
Speaker 2: Josh Bell. That's a fun looking top of the order.

316
00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:02,880
Speaker 2: The project win total the Nationals in twenty twenty two

317
00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:06,720
Speaker 2: sixty nine and a half wins. Pakoda's got him at

318
00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:09,200
Speaker 2: seventy and a half. The Nationals in twenty twenty one

319
00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:12,160
Speaker 2: finished sixty five and ninety seven. Do we expect improvements

320
00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:14,760
Speaker 2: this year? Shan Zarello from the Washington Nationals.

321
00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:17,280
Speaker 3: I'm right about in line with the market, so I

322
00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:19,160
Speaker 3: still think they're going to be a round a seventy

323
00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:21,400
Speaker 3: win team. I have them at sixty nine point two.

324
00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:24,240
Speaker 3: The market projection market has them closer to seventy two,

325
00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:28,320
Speaker 3: So no value here for me from any perspective. One

326
00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:32,000
Speaker 3: long shot future maybe worth considering. I bet on Vlagerrero

327
00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:33,760
Speaker 3: Junior last year to win the home run title at

328
00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:36,680
Speaker 3: fifty to one. He had never come close to that

329
00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:38,840
Speaker 3: type of fly ball or home run performance that he

330
00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:42,040
Speaker 3: put up last year. It's worth betting on superstar players

331
00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:44,520
Speaker 3: to hit levels that they never hit before. Juan Soto

332
00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:46,040
Speaker 3: is sitting in that fifty to one range for most

333
00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:49,800
Speaker 3: sum runs this year. I mean expectative play on maybe

334
00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:51,560
Speaker 3: the best player in baseball to lead the league in

335
00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:53,880
Speaker 3: home runs at some point. Fifty to one is not

336
00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:56,440
Speaker 3: a bad number for him to make a complete level jump.

337
00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:59,040
Speaker 2: How about you, Colin thoughts on the Nationals in twenty

338
00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:00,320
Speaker 2: twenty two Zerrilla.

339
00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:02,720
Speaker 4: I remember us talking before the start of last season,

340
00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:05,240
Speaker 4: and our consensus that we drew on Soda was basically,

341
00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:07,800
Speaker 4: let's bet on him to win MVP until he does,

342
00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:10,760
Speaker 4: because he's going to very soon. And that's the way

343
00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,560
Speaker 4: I feel. Although his number for MVP has you know

344
00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:15,520
Speaker 4: he's going to be priced as one of the favorites,

345
00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:18,160
Speaker 4: so that makes it a lot a lot more difficult.

346
00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:20,560
Speaker 4: But it would be nice to see him play for

347
00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:23,280
Speaker 4: a competent team, and I think the Nationals do have

348
00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:25,879
Speaker 4: a competent team. I should say play for competent team again.

349
00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:28,439
Speaker 4: He obviously has a World Series ring already at the

350
00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:32,119
Speaker 4: age of twenty three. The Nationals do have some competence.

351
00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:35,120
Speaker 4: Though they made a lot of headlines last season by

352
00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:38,480
Speaker 4: kind of tearing apart that World Series core trading Trey Turner,

353
00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:42,040
Speaker 4: trading Max Scherzer. But they did some nice, kind of

354
00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:45,280
Speaker 4: under the radar things this offseason, bringing in guys like

355
00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:49,800
Speaker 4: Nelson Cruz and Josh Bell Sazar Hernandez is a competent

356
00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,000
Speaker 4: Major leaguer, which a lot of teams projected to finish

357
00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:55,879
Speaker 4: in last place don't have. I love Josiah Gray and

358
00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:59,239
Speaker 4: I love keibert Ruiz, two of the young studs they

359
00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:03,040
Speaker 4: got in recent trades. And I just think this team

360
00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:08,080
Speaker 4: has some promise, not like playoff promise, but beat your

361
00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:11,399
Speaker 4: win total promise. And that's not even mentioning Steven Strasburg,

362
00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:14,879
Speaker 4: who's projected back probably in May, obviously dealt with a

363
00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:16,760
Speaker 4: ton of injuries the last couple of years. But if

364
00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:19,879
Speaker 4: they even get seventy eighty percent of what Strasburg was

365
00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:22,199
Speaker 4: pre injury, that's going to provide them a big boost.

366
00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:23,240
Speaker 2: So I like they're over.

367
00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:26,160
Speaker 4: It's a small play on over, but I could see

368
00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:27,840
Speaker 4: them winning in the low seventies for sure.

369
00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,040
Speaker 2: Before we move to the NL Central, let's get your

370
00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:33,639
Speaker 2: favorite bets from this division, the NL East to Sean.

371
00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:36,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'd say top to bottom. This is probably like

372
00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:39,720
Speaker 3: the most competitive division where all five teams are pretty

373
00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:42,600
Speaker 3: pretty decent, with some elite teams mixed in there too,

374
00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:45,680
Speaker 3: So it's difficult to say to take the Marlins over

375
00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:47,439
Speaker 3: seventy five and a half, But that is my favorite

376
00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:51,720
Speaker 3: bet here. I just I don't see a greater upside

377
00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:54,320
Speaker 3: projection for any other team relative to their total that

378
00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:57,000
Speaker 3: seventy nine and a half number. Seventy nine point nine

379
00:18:57,080 --> 00:18:59,280
Speaker 3: number that I have is four point four wins over

380
00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:01,919
Speaker 3: their listed to That's the largest gap I show for

381
00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:04,440
Speaker 3: any team relative to their list in total two and over.

382
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:06,920
Speaker 3: So the Marlins over seventy five and a half at Caesars,

383
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:10,040
Speaker 3: it's my best bet for the analyst, Colin, I'm.

384
00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,080
Speaker 4: Going to go with my Phillies under I think that

385
00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:14,960
Speaker 4: their defense, their depth, their bullpen are going to be

386
00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:17,359
Speaker 4: too much to overcome and what Sean, as Sean mentioned,

387
00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:20,160
Speaker 4: is going to be probably the most competitive division in baseball.

388
00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:22,639
Speaker 4: I think that they finish right around five hundred and

389
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:25,400
Speaker 4: eighty to eighty two wins, so I really like their under.

390
00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:26,720
Speaker 3: Very good folks.

391
00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,800
Speaker 2: Again, you're tuning into our Action Network podcast, the Action

392
00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:34,480
Speaker 2: Network podcast the National League Betting Preview Brendan glas Sheen

393
00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:38,280
Speaker 2: with Sean Zarillo and Colin woch Church of the Action Network.

394
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:41,680
Speaker 2: We also have our American League Betting preview available on

395
00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,040
Speaker 2: the TAM pod. We touched on all fifteen teams the

396
00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:46,679
Speaker 2: best Ways to bet the American League. Be sure to

397
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:48,679
Speaker 2: check that out. And also we want to remind you

398
00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:52,880
Speaker 2: we have a brand new Major League Baseball Action Network

399
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:56,760
Speaker 2: betting podcast. It's titled Payoff Pitch and you can find

400
00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:59,720
Speaker 2: the link to Payoff Pitch in the description of this podcast,

401
00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:01,439
Speaker 2: so you don't really have to do much work to

402
00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:03,320
Speaker 2: find it. We do the work for you. But we

403
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:05,800
Speaker 2: do have our first episode out now, but that is

404
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:08,320
Speaker 2: a podcast that we want to remind you. We will

405
00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:11,560
Speaker 2: be coming to you every Tuesday and Friday during the

406
00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:14,840
Speaker 2: Major League Baseball season to break down that day and

407
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,480
Speaker 2: night's slate. So we look forward to being with you

408
00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 2: throughout the course of the season. During Juleague Baseball twenty

409
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:25,320
Speaker 2: twenty two, we go to the NL Central. The Milwaukee

410
00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:29,960
Speaker 2: Brewers are your projected winner of this division eighty nine

411
00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 2: and a half wins at minus one seventy. That's according

412
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:36,560
Speaker 2: to FanDuel as of right now. But this is a

413
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:39,280
Speaker 2: team going into twenty twenty two, and just to give

414
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:40,639
Speaker 2: you a sense of where they were last year, the

415
00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 2: Brewers won ninety five games. They won the Central ninety

416
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:46,800
Speaker 2: five and sixty seven the Brewers. So the Brewers have

417
00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:50,880
Speaker 2: a great rotation too, and that feels sean what's going

418
00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:54,199
Speaker 2: to carry them once again in twenty twenty two. They

419
00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:58,200
Speaker 2: have the number two projected rotation by MLB dot Com

420
00:20:58,200 --> 00:20:58,880
Speaker 2: for this season.

421
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:01,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, these guys are horses and if they get to

422
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:03,119
Speaker 3: the postseason, they're going to be a problem. So the

423
00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:06,439
Speaker 3: Brewers are absolutely a dangerous team, and I think they

424
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:09,960
Speaker 3: offer value both from a divisional and a World Series perspective. Now,

425
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 3: let's forget my projection for a second, because Fangrass and

426
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:15,800
Speaker 3: Pakoda are more optimistic on the Brewers than I am.

427
00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:18,359
Speaker 3: And this was the case last year too, said the

428
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:20,399
Speaker 3: Brewers won ninety five games. Well, they were plus three

429
00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:23,120
Speaker 3: to fifty plus four hundred coming into the season. Last year,

430
00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:26,280
Speaker 3: across the board of the projection market made them the divisional

431
00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:28,240
Speaker 3: favorites and said they were about a fifty to fifty

432
00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:30,199
Speaker 3: shot to win it. I think as low as like

433
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:32,359
Speaker 3: forty percent, but pretty much everybody had them as the

434
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:35,679
Speaker 3: favorite this year. Zips has them at seventy two percent.

435
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:38,280
Speaker 3: Pakoda has them all the way up at eighty eight percent,

436
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:40,440
Speaker 3: So they think they should be like minus seven hundred

437
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 3: to win the division and then it's a one team race.

438
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 3: I see a smaller gap between the Cardinals and the Brewers.

439
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,119
Speaker 3: I make about a four win differential between the two teams,

440
00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:51,600
Speaker 3: but I'd still make the Brewers sixty five percent to

441
00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:54,720
Speaker 3: win this division about minus one eighty five. So there's

442
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 3: minus one fifties on the Brewers out there at Caesars

443
00:21:57,600 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 3: to win the Nlal Central. We gave them out at

444
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 3: minus one twenty five last week, minus one thirty earlier

445
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 3: in this week. I think minus one fifty is still okay,

446
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,400
Speaker 3: But that's that's my stopping point because you're still getting

447
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:10,199
Speaker 3: about a five percent edge there, but I wouldn't go

448
00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 3: past it. In the World Series market, this team should

449
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 3: probably be closer to plus fourteen hundred than plus sixteen

450
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:18,320
Speaker 3: hundred to win the World Series. There's a sixteen to

451
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 3: one out there at Caesars, so that minus one fifty

452
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 3: and that's sixteen to one both at Caesars. If the

453
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:27,120
Speaker 3: Brewers make the playoffs and win the division, they're probably

454
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:29,480
Speaker 3: going to be in that second spot in the NL

455
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 3: getting that buy and avoiding the Dodgers in that half

456
00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 3: of the NL bracket. So everything basically sets up for

457
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 3: the Brewers to potentially get to the NLCS and not

458
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,320
Speaker 3: have to face the Dodgers potentially when they get there.

459
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 3: So I like the Brewers for divisional perspective, and I

460
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:46,879
Speaker 3: love them from a World Series perspective as well. If

461
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 3: they're going to run away with that division, it should

462
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 3: be a pretty solid value as you head into playoff time.

463
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,760
Speaker 2: Knockcom would It's a rotation that has not had injury

464
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,920
Speaker 2: concerns in the past, and you look at last season

465
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 2: the Milwaukee Brewers, every single member of their starting rotation

466
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 2: had a thirty two percent better increase in ERA plus

467
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 2: than any other team, any other team in the league,

468
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 2: in the National League, and that look, as we talked

469
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:15,359
Speaker 2: about in the NL East with the Mets, you've got

470
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,439
Speaker 2: the gram Scherzer. So those two names just pop at you.

471
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 2: But as we've talked about, I think it's fair to

472
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 2: say the Milwaukee Brewers historically have just been a more

473
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 2: well run organization than the New York Mets. Colin that

474
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:29,200
Speaker 2: brings us to you, the Brewers. Where do you sit

475
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 2: on this team?

476
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 4: I agree with everything Sean said. The Brewers are my

477
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,240
Speaker 4: favorite divisional bet. They're my favorite World Series bet in

478
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 4: the National League. I think that one of the interesting

479
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 4: things about the Brewers entering this year is that they

480
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:45,160
Speaker 4: won their division last year despite having just absolutely putrid offense.

481
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:47,680
Speaker 4: I think a lot of that's going to rebound this year,

482
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 4: just by peer averaging out luck. You know, their last

483
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:53,920
Speaker 4: couple of playoff appearances they won because they were carried

484
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 4: on the back of Christian Yelich. Last year they made

485
00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:59,640
Speaker 4: the playoffs basically in spite of Christian Yelich, who struggled

486
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:02,440
Speaker 4: for a large portion of the season. The only offensive

487
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 4: player who really surpassed expectations last year was Willie Damas,

488
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 4: who came over in a mid season trade. So I

489
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 4: think we see a lot of increased offensive production out

490
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,280
Speaker 4: of the Brewers this year, even if there are some

491
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 4: question marks. Their third base is kind of unsettled. What

492
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 4: are they going to do about Keston Hira, who still

493
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 4: hasn't lived up to his prospect promise? In the rotations

494
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 4: you mentioned, you said something about them being the number

495
00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 4: two ranked rotation. I'm struggling to think of who who

496
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 4: should be ahead of them.

497
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:33,040
Speaker 2: Well, it's the Mets. MLB dot Com has the Mets.

498
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:35,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I understand that because they have the gram Insurser.

499
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:40,159
Speaker 4: But top to bottom, I mean, Freddy Peralta is a

500
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 4: ton better than the Mets. Third starter Adrianhauser and Eric

501
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 4: Lauer are both show a lot of promise and they

502
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 4: have depth behind them. We might see some Ethan Small

503
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 4: this year. It's kind of funny that Brewers tore down

504
00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 4: their farm when trying to build a contender over the

505
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:56,399
Speaker 4: last half decade or so in trades for guys like

506
00:24:56,440 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 4: Lorenzo Caine, and their farm system still ranks pretty low overall.

507
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,400
Speaker 4: But they've got some guys on the cusp who can

508
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,400
Speaker 4: still help them win. Now, guys like Ethan, small guys

509
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,720
Speaker 4: like Bryce Terrang who might help them in the infield,

510
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:14,080
Speaker 4: depending on what Colton Wong, Jace Peterson, Keston here those

511
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 4: types do. And I'm really down on the rest of

512
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 4: this division. As you'll hear, I think the Brewers have

513
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 4: this division clinched by the start of September. So this

514
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 4: is my strongest division future. And I really love their

515
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 4: World Series odds.

516
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 2: Wow, roll out the barrel, will have a barrel.

517
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 3: Roll out.

518
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:43,160
Speaker 2: We've got those blues. Okay, very good because the next

519
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 2: team are going to discuss the Saint Louis Cardinals. They

520
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:47,119
Speaker 2: made a little bit of noise at the end of

521
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 2: the season. They were hanging around in the wild card

522
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 2: discussion in the National League as the year wound down.

523
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:56,120
Speaker 2: In twenty twenty one, the Cardinals they won ninety games,

524
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:59,720
Speaker 2: They went ninety and seventy two. They the Cardinals were

525
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:03,320
Speaker 2: play team. They were a wildcard team last year. Going

526
00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 2: into this season, they do have some promise in the notation.

527
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,639
Speaker 2: They finished eleventh in ERA last year. They added Stephen Mattz,

528
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 2: and you've always got to be concerned about Jack Flaherty

529
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:16,679
Speaker 2: and his injury status. The shoulder is always a concern

530
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 2: with him. But we look at their projected wind total

531
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 2: across many books, eighty four and a half wins for

532
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:25,439
Speaker 2: the Cardinals, Pa Coda's got a bit seventy nine point one, Sean.

533
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:28,359
Speaker 2: So your thoughts on the Cardinals as right now? That

534
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 2: means they project as the next best team behind the

535
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:31,719
Speaker 2: Brewers in that division.

536
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:34,159
Speaker 3: My thoughts are that I hate the Cardinals because they

537
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 3: went twenty two and seven in September last year and

538
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 3: ruin basically a win total under for everybody at the

539
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 3: Action Network. I don't know if there was a single

540
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 3: person on Action Network Slack didn't have a Cardinals under.

541
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:46,919
Speaker 3: So that was that was absolutely horrendous.

542
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:48,440
Speaker 2: Does that include both of you?

543
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:51,399
Speaker 4: No, Now, I raised my hand. I was the I

544
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 4: was the center there. I was on the Cardinals wind

545
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 4: total over and by August I was I was already

546
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 4: checking that one off as a long and so they

547
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,280
Speaker 4: won it for me, and so I was the great

548
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:04,920
Speaker 4: dissenter there.

549
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 3: Okay, So yeah, Colin was the one on the other

550
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 3: side of that that horrific beat.

551
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 2: Yeah.

552
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 3: Coming into twenty twenty two, the market is very low

553
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:15,920
Speaker 3: on Saint Louis. Again, they were low on them last year,

554
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,680
Speaker 3: which is why I ended up betting that under Now

555
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 3: my projection much more closely lined with the market, I

556
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 3: have them at eighty five point seven. They're the number

557
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 3: one defensive team in my model. We talked on the

558
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 3: al POD. I don't know how much defensive performance is

559
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 3: going to impact these win totals this year. It's had

560
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:35,439
Speaker 3: much more of an impact in the past on end

561
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 3: of season outcomes, but without shifting removing some of those

562
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:43,720
Speaker 3: things playing spot defense, yeah, the Cardinals are probably still

563
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 3: the best defensive team, like player for player, just playing

564
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 3: your traditional defensive spot. So I think they'll be fine

565
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 3: and that should boost their overall outcome at the end

566
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 3: of the season. But looking at the rest of the

567
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 3: projection market, they're under on this team by like seven wins.

568
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 3: There's a low of seventy four from Davenport. You mentioned Brendan,

569
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:05,159
Speaker 3: the seventy nine point one from Pakoda. Nobody likes this

570
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 3: team anywhere near their total. So even though I'm basically

571
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 3: in line eighty five and a half with the listed total,

572
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 3: I'm gonna trust those market projections and go under eighty

573
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 3: five and a half Caesar's points bet. There's actually an

574
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 3: eighty six at win bet. That's probably your best number

575
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 3: out there right now.

576
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 2: Okay, Colin, do your victory lap. The twenty two and

577
00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 2: seven finish cut you to the over. But like you teased,

578
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,440
Speaker 2: you're still down after the Brewers. You're not as high

579
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:32,640
Speaker 2: on the rest of this division. We're talking Cardinals.

580
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:35,360
Speaker 4: I thank the Cardinals for their service, I thank them

581
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 4: for the money they won me last year, but I

582
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 4: am very down on this team this year. I love

583
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 4: their under You look at their starting lineup. You look

584
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 4: at their rotation, their first baseman, their third baseman, their catcher,

585
00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 4: their DH and their starting pitchers one through three are

586
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 4: all thirty one years old or older. And that's not

587
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 4: even counting Albert Pools, who they just brought back at

588
00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 4: the age of forty two. This is an old team,

589
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 4: and I think that the Cardinals quasi l Central Dynasty,

590
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 4: whatever you want to call it. They're dominance from the

591
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 4: last decade plus. I think that it's over. I know

592
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,960
Speaker 4: that it technically has. They haven't won the division every

593
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 4: single year, but I just think their time as a

594
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 4: contender is over. I know that everyone loves the Molina

595
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 4: Wainwright connection, it can't last forever.

596
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 3: This is a about.

597
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 4: Forty year old catcher that's almost unheard of, and Wainwright

598
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 4: was phenomenal last year, but there was some good luck

599
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 4: that went into that as well. I just I think

600
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:43,320
Speaker 4: that if anything carries them this year like it did

601
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 4: last year, it's their defense. But there's too many question

602
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 4: marks and too many holes on this roster. I'm going

603
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 4: under their win total even in a bad division. That's

604
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 4: it's the only thing that kind of gives me pauses.

605
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 4: It's like, is any team going to surpass them as

606
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 4: for second place in this division? I don't really see it,

607
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 4: But like I mentioned, I think the Brewers are going

608
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 4: to run away with this anyway. So there's a world

609
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 4: where the Brewers are the only team in the division

610
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 4: that even finishes above five hundred.

611
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,479
Speaker 2: You just reminded me talking about that that yes, there

612
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:14,040
Speaker 2: is a universal dh now, so that is something to

613
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 2: consider here. We discuss when totals if that's even a factor,

614
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 2: but more so just as the general consumer, Yes, the

615
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,160
Speaker 2: universal DH so there is a dh now in the

616
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 2: National League. So when you're looking at run total projections

617
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 2: and things of that nature during the season that is

618
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 2: not for the year, but during regular season games head

619
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 2: to head National League teams. That's something to think about.

620
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 2: Let's go to the Cubs. They're next on our list

621
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 2: here NL Central. We're going through the whole National League

622
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 2: on the National League Betting Preview here on the Action

623
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 2: Network podcast. Cubs at seventy four and a half wins

624
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:49,920
Speaker 2: as they're projected total last year. The Cubs in twenty

625
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 2: twenty one, they were just selling pieces, right, they were

626
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:54,120
Speaker 2: just making moves at the deadline. You go here, you

627
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 2: go there, We get you, we get you get that,

628
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 2: we get that. Cubs went seventy one and ninety one

629
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty one. Sean Zerulo, is the seventy four

630
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 2: and a half still too high? Like? What is this

631
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 2: team made of in twenty twenty two?

632
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 3: It is compared to my progression. I have them at

633
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 3: seventy two, but the market projections, like the over if

634
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 3: I was just to, like, you know, throw all the

635
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 3: projections out, if you just asked me, who's one team

636
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 3: that's gonna randomly defy expectations this year? I think it's

637
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:25,040
Speaker 3: the Cubs. They're doing some some things that are unquantifiable,

638
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 3: lots of stuff with seams shifted, wake with their pitchers,

639
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 3: and but does the Saya Suzuki signing like the Marcus

640
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 3: Stroman signing That tells me that they want to be

641
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 3: competitive again as quickly as possible. So I like the

642
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 3: prospects that they got and the trades where they reloaded

643
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 3: last year. I like the additions that they made this offseason.

644
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 3: I know my projection says under, I'm gonna forget that.

645
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 3: I think, if anything, this is an over team, and

646
00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 3: this is this might be the team that like randomly

647
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 3: finishes second in nanl Central. So if we're looking for

648
00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 3: one team to just randomly finish five hundred, it's probably

649
00:31:57,440 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 3: the Cubs for me.

650
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,239
Speaker 2: How about you, Colin Goo Cubs twenty twenty two.

651
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 4: I do like the Cubs more than the market. The

652
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 4: one guy I really want to talk about, though, with Suzuki,

653
00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 4: who I think there is insane value in his Rookie

654
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 4: of the Year number even listed among the favorites. I

655
00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 4: think there's some books you can find him around the

656
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 4: plus four hundred to plus five hundred range. It's his

657
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 4: award to lose more than O'Neal Cruz, who's going to

658
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 4: start in triple A for the Pirates. This is a

659
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 4: twenty seven year old who has a long track record

660
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 4: of success in Japan. He's going to have every opportunity

661
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 4: to crush balls onto Waveland Avenue there in Chicago. His

662
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 4: Pakoda projections his fiftieth percentile outcome. Pakoda projections have him

663
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:41,560
Speaker 4: like among the top twenty five or thirty most valuable

664
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 4: position players in baseball. I think it's three point seven

665
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 4: wins above replacement. So they're very high on him. And

666
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 4: what makes him different from a lot of quote unquote

667
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:52,960
Speaker 4: rookies and I use quotation marks there because he's twenty

668
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 4: seven and has a long and successful professional career, is

669
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 4: that he has a superb eye. They project him for

670
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 4: fewer than one hundred strikeouts higher than seventy walks. So

671
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 4: Suzuki's rookie of the year future is where I'm focusing

672
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 4: with the Cubs. I know we're mostly talking win totals.

673
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 4: The one other thing I'll say about that rotation. While

674
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 4: I do like Marcus Stroman and I like a lot

675
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:19,480
Speaker 4: of the veteran additions they made, their starting rotation is

676
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:24,240
Speaker 4: filled with soft tossers who throw strikes overs. At Wrigley

677
00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 4: Field in May, June, July, those afternoon games with the

678
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:30,200
Speaker 4: wind blowing out. They're going to be giving up a

679
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 4: ton of long balls. So that makes me kind of

680
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 4: worrysome about the Cubs win total because their rotation it

681
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:39,239
Speaker 4: has a lot of name recognition, but these dudes are

682
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 4: going to be giving up bombs. So I like the

683
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 4: over on the wind total. I do think that there's

684
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 4: a chance that they could finish in second place. But

685
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 4: Suzuki Rookie of the Year, that's where my money's going.

686
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 2: Just pulled up a hand full of books and I'm

687
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:55,240
Speaker 2: seeing plus three eighty on DraftKings to get Suzuki to

688
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 2: win NL Rookie of the Year. So we'll say if

689
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 2: he can bring the Cup back to their great former

690
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 2: places where they once were a few years ago. Up

691
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 2: next in the NLS Central the Cincinnati Reds seventy three

692
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,319
Speaker 2: and a half wins their projected win total. The Reds

693
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 2: last year won eighty three games. They went eighty three

694
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:16,400
Speaker 2: and seventy nine. Let's see, Pakota's going to be at

695
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:19,520
Speaker 2: seventy nine point four, which would actually finish just above

696
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 2: Saint Louis based on Pakoda's rankings for twenty twenty two seawn.

697
00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:24,839
Speaker 2: Any thoughts on the Reds here?

698
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:27,800
Speaker 3: This is probably the most difficult team to project this season.

699
00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,319
Speaker 3: I like the under. I have them at seventy two,

700
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:33,760
Speaker 3: two point six wins below the listed total. The market

701
00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:36,240
Speaker 3: loves the over. They're five wins over the listed total.

702
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 3: You mentioned that Pakoda projection that's basically the average of

703
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 3: the three market projections, but there's an eighty four out

704
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:45,279
Speaker 3: there at Davenport, so I can't touch this total. It's

705
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:47,400
Speaker 3: just kind of two all over the place of the projections.

706
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:50,280
Speaker 3: They should be a team that continues to sell off pieces,

707
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:52,799
Speaker 3: but we've talked about the other teams in this division, like,

708
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:56,360
Speaker 3: somebody has to win games right under seventy four and

709
00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 3: a half. Thirventy five and a half is a decently

710
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:02,360
Speaker 3: low total, So if they end up selling off pieces

711
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 3: and still surpassing that number with the pieces they have,

712
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:07,360
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be completely shocked. It's it's just a passer

713
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 3: may how.

714
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:08,760
Speaker 2: About you, Colin.

715
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, They're really impossible to predict, not even necessarily in performance,

716
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 4: but just in what the front office is going to do.

717
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 4: I feel like every six months they flip flop between

718
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 4: wanting to contend and wanting to save money. I do

719
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 4: like a lot of a lot of what they have here.

720
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 4: I think Tyler Stevenson's due for a huge breakout behind

721
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 4: the plate and being able to play a little bit

722
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 4: of first base. The back of the rotation has Hunter Green,

723
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:35,280
Speaker 4: who's a Rookie of the Year candidate, and Nick Lodolow,

724
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:39,319
Speaker 4: another top prospect. But top to bottom, I think that

725
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 4: there's a ton of holes there, relying on guys like

726
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:44,880
Speaker 4: Kyle Farmer at shortstop, Colin Moran.

727
00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:47,320
Speaker 2: Tyler Naquin.

728
00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 4: I like the under here, but it's a small play.

729
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:54,360
Speaker 4: I don't feel good about it. But I think that

730
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:56,880
Speaker 4: this is pretty pretty strongly the fourth best team in

731
00:35:56,920 --> 00:36:00,279
Speaker 4: the division, which is saying something I guess considering where

732
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 4: Pokoda has them.

733
00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 2: Because next up Pittsburgh pirates sixty four and a half wins.

734
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,359
Speaker 2: We'll get to Collins thoughts in just a second. Pittsburgh

735
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty one sixty one in one hundred and one. So,

736
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 2: like the Orioles, based on our al pod that you

737
00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:18,799
Speaker 2: can find on the Action Network podcast, we're like, wait

738
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 2: a minute, that's a pretty significant bump considering where they

739
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 2: were last year. So this isn't as significant. Just three

740
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 2: more wins, three or four more wins for the Pirates

741
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 2: at sixty four and a half wins Sean any strong

742
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 2: thoughts on maybe an under here on the Pirates.

743
00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 3: No, I'm actually going to go the other way. You know.

744
00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:37,400
Speaker 3: We talked about maybe teams in this division struggling to

745
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:39,600
Speaker 3: find wins, and I think the Pirates could pick up

746
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 3: some of those spare pieces. So this was a very

747
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:45,719
Speaker 3: very very sweaty over bet for a number of Action

748
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 3: Network personnel last year. I know BJ Cunningham was on

749
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:50,799
Speaker 3: it as well. We were slating this one out all

750
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:52,840
Speaker 3: the way until September. They had some double headers in

751
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:55,399
Speaker 3: there that they had to make up some comfort behind wins.

752
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:57,880
Speaker 3: It was. It was not a fun over bet to sweat.

753
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:00,839
Speaker 3: But I do have them projected close to sixty six

754
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 3: this year. They have some pieces that I really like,

755
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:07,279
Speaker 3: are like Brian Reynolds and Cabrian Hayes. Colin talked about

756
00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 3: some prospects that they might bring up. So it's not

757
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:12,320
Speaker 3: an uber confident play on this over, but every single

758
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:15,760
Speaker 3: projection likes them to exceed their listed total. There's actually

759
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:18,080
Speaker 3: an over sixty two and a half that's juiced up

760
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 3: at Bette Rivers. That would be my favorite number to

761
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:23,840
Speaker 3: play because that's just so much further shy of the

762
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 3: projections in my own projection. So the Pirates over sixty

763
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 3: two and a half juice up two about minus one

764
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:32,320
Speaker 3: twenty five at Bette Rivers. It's my favorite play for Pittsburgh,

765
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 3: but not a huge bet.

766
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 2: All right, Colin give it to us.

767
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:38,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a small over here for me as well.

768
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:41,400
Speaker 4: I love Cabrian Hayes, I love O'Neil Cruz. I'm pissed

769
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:44,520
Speaker 4: that the Pirates aren't putting crews on their opening day roster,

770
00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 4: but we should see him soon enough.

771
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:47,840
Speaker 2: They're starting.

772
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 4: Pitching is atrocious, although I do love JT. Brubecker quite

773
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 4: a bit. It will be nice if and when we

774
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 4: see the likes of Rowemz, Contraris Miguel yah Houriy join

775
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:01,919
Speaker 4: that rotation, because listen, you're not gonna hear me say

776
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:05,399
Speaker 4: a bad word about Jose Kintana after how much he

777
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:07,880
Speaker 4: did for my White Sox once upon a time. But

778
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 4: behind him, Mitch Keller has never gotten it done. Bryce Wilson,

779
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 4: a former Brave Zach Thompson. There's a lot of really

780
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:19,439
Speaker 4: bad pitching here, but some competent offense, and I think

781
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 4: that they have enough to kind of to go over

782
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:25,560
Speaker 4: their win total and kind of make people go, hmm,

783
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 4: Pirates might have something going into twenty twenty three, but

784
00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:29,880
Speaker 4: twenty twenty two it's not going to happen.

785
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 3: And then they won't have anything going for twenty two.

786
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:32,000
Speaker 1: Yes.

787
00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:37,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, As far as favorite bet from this division, start

788
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 2: with you. Sean Colin can weigh in after I ask,

789
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 2: but I feel like both of you, based on your

790
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:44,120
Speaker 2: confidence level, you might be going to the Brewers.

791
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 3: Yeah. I'm definitely on the Brewers. I said minus one

792
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:50,000
Speaker 3: fifty at Caesars is that would be my cutoff price.

793
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 3: We got minus one twenty five. We got minus one thirty,

794
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:54,840
Speaker 3: don't go past minus one fifty. I just don't know

795
00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 3: how big the edge is after that. But their World

796
00:38:57,600 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 3: Series odds plus sixteen hundred at Caesars worth playing as well.

797
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 3: If they win that division, probably going to get the

798
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 3: two seed in the n L and from there just

799
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 3: need some luck.

800
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're talking buys this year to top two teams

801
00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 2: in each league and a buye. So that's that's that's

802
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:12,320
Speaker 2: important to note.

803
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 4: Calling yourself Yeah, absolutely, Brewers. I'll also mention the Cardinals

804
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:20,560
Speaker 4: under here. That's how strongly I feel about that Brewers division,

805
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:24,239
Speaker 4: Brewers win total, Cardinals win total. Under those combination of

806
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 4: those are all all they're all aligned, and they're all

807
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:27,320
Speaker 4: among my favorite bets.

808
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, and that as that price on the Brewers divisional

809
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:33,120
Speaker 3: price continues to increase, that only makes the Cardinals under

810
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 3: a better play, because those those bets are equally correlated, right,

811
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 3: I mean more or less. So at some point, you know,

812
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:41,840
Speaker 3: once once you get past that minus one fifty, and

813
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:45,160
Speaker 3: the Brewers just pivot to the Cardinals under good point.

814
00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:47,440
Speaker 2: Good point. And right now I'm seeing I just have

815
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:51,320
Speaker 2: got DraftKings pulled up here on the projected win totals,

816
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:54,680
Speaker 2: looking for where are they? Well, you try to pull

817
00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 2: this stuff up as you talk. Oh there we are. Yeah,

818
00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:58,480
Speaker 2: still at eighty four and a half at minus one ten.

819
00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, and there's there's actual in eighty six out there

820
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 3: win bet. So that's that's certainly a number Worthwhy, very good.

821
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:07,319
Speaker 2: Okay, we're gonna make the turn for home here, We're

822
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:09,759
Speaker 2: gonna go to the NL West again. You're locked into

823
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:14,720
Speaker 2: the Action Network podcast National League Betting Preview. Brendan Glash,

824
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 2: Dean shan Zillo, Colin Whitchurch. We do have an episode

825
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:21,319
Speaker 2: out on the Action Network podcast that covers the American League,

826
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:23,960
Speaker 2: all fifteen teams, all five teams in each division. We

827
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 2: go division by division and give you the best ways

828
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:28,279
Speaker 2: to bet the league. We're doing that now in the

829
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 2: National League. Want to remind you if you're enjoying what

830
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 2: you're hearing in terms of our breakdown for the twenty

831
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:35,720
Speaker 2: twenty two Major League Baseball season, we have a brand

832
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:41,000
Speaker 2: new Major League Baseball centric Action Network betting podcast out

833
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:43,759
Speaker 2: there now, Payoff Pitch. You can find the link to

834
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:47,640
Speaker 2: our first episode in the description of this podcast, Payoff Pitch.

835
00:40:47,719 --> 00:40:50,879
Speaker 2: During the twenty twenty two season, Payoff Pitch, we'll cover

836
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 2: every Tuesday and Friday baseball slate during the baseball season,

837
00:40:56,160 --> 00:41:00,759
Speaker 2: so it's more of your daily look at spreads, run totals,

838
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 2: all that good stuff, and we'll get you ready during

839
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:08,239
Speaker 2: the season. With that won the Payoff Pitch Pod every

840
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:11,319
Speaker 2: Tuesday and Friday during the course of the season. Here

841
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:14,120
Speaker 2: in the TAM Pod, we are making the turn for home.

842
00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:17,440
Speaker 2: We head to the National League West and there they

843
00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:20,960
Speaker 2: are again, those LA Dodgers. Ninety eight and a half

844
00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:23,200
Speaker 2: wins this team last year. I mean, what are we

845
00:41:23,239 --> 00:41:25,800
Speaker 2: doing here? Ninety eight and a half wins for the Dodgers,

846
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:28,800
Speaker 2: it's got to finish well over. I would like to

847
00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:31,399
Speaker 2: think they've got to loaded lineup again this year. It's

848
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:34,879
Speaker 2: even better than last year, and their rotation is pretty

849
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:38,239
Speaker 2: darn good. That's shirt up, Seanzrella, what is it? I

850
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:40,680
Speaker 2: guess this is a loaded one because it's the Dodgers

851
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 2: and there's a lot that can be discussed about this team,

852
00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 2: that's how good they are. But what's the best way

853
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:49,040
Speaker 2: to go about betting? Slash? Looking at the team this year?

854
00:41:49,520 --> 00:41:51,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, you mentioned that total of ninety eight and a half.

855
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:53,319
Speaker 3: It actually opened ninety six and a half, And I'm

856
00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 3: mad at myself that I didn't take me over at

857
00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:57,799
Speaker 3: that point because it was a pretty obvious play that

858
00:41:57,840 --> 00:41:59,480
Speaker 3: it would at least go up and you could try

859
00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 3: to find a middle later, right, Like, who wasn't going

860
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 3: to bet the over at that number? I have them

861
00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:05,680
Speaker 3: projected at one hundred wins. I think I had them

862
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:08,760
Speaker 3: at one oh five last year, so with slight downgrade

863
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:11,360
Speaker 3: relative to the team that they had coming into last season,

864
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 3: but still the best team in baseball this year. And

865
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:15,279
Speaker 3: I'm not even the high mand but Coda has them

866
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:19,960
Speaker 3: at one oh two, so the over maybe a lean. Overall,

867
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:23,280
Speaker 3: I think the competitiveness that San Diego and San Francisco

868
00:42:23,360 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 3: displayed last season is actually providing value on the Dodters

869
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 3: divisional prices this season, maybe the World Series price as well.

870
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:33,879
Speaker 3: But looking outside of my projections, seventy two to eighty

871
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:36,760
Speaker 3: four percent either Zips or Pacoda to win the division,

872
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:38,840
Speaker 3: so they should be at least minus two to sixty

873
00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:40,279
Speaker 3: to win the West. You can find them as low

874
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:43,400
Speaker 3: as minus two hundred. Bet rivers I actually show a

875
00:42:43,520 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 3: larger discrepancy between the Dodgers and the second place team

876
00:42:47,719 --> 00:42:50,840
Speaker 3: than either of those productions do, so personally, i'd probably

877
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:53,200
Speaker 3: make this line closer to minus three to fifty minus

878
00:42:53,200 --> 00:42:55,760
Speaker 3: four hundred. I think there's tremendous value on the Dodgers

879
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:58,600
Speaker 3: to win the West. Here, wouldn't bet it pass probably

880
00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:01,400
Speaker 3: minus two thirty three, which is seventy percent implied. So

881
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:04,160
Speaker 3: we're gonna leave about a five to ten percent expectation

882
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 3: in terms of our edge, whether I want to put

883
00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:08,480
Speaker 3: it at seventy five or eighty percent of on the Dodgers.

884
00:43:08,480 --> 00:43:10,239
Speaker 2: But overall, yeah, I.

885
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:12,480
Speaker 3: Think the World Series odds they're probably like a fair

886
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 3: number five to one. I just don't bet anything below

887
00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 3: ten to one at the time of year. But the Dodgers,

888
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:21,680
Speaker 3: to me, like the Brewers, are an undervalued divisional favorite,

889
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:23,440
Speaker 3: and I really think this might look like a one

890
00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:25,440
Speaker 3: team race by the time we get to September.

891
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:29,000
Speaker 2: Yeah. If anything, you're hoping as a as a consumer

892
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 2: of baseball and you want to bet baseball. Maybe they

893
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:33,440
Speaker 2: got off to a bad start because there's pressure that

894
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:36,000
Speaker 2: they've got such a loaded roster. I just find that

895
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 2: difficult to do, Colin, because the lineup, like Cody Bellinger

896
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 2: is their seven hitter right now, BET's Freeman Turner, Munsey Smith, Turner, Bellinger,

897
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:46,239
Speaker 2: and then Taylor and Pollock are they're projected eight nine

898
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 2: hitters respectively. Oh no, they lost Corey seeher in free

899
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:53,360
Speaker 2: agency and then their rotation. I guess maybe this is

900
00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:55,759
Speaker 2: the department where you have a little concern, like can

901
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 2: Walker Bueler be the guy? Can Clayton Kershaw stay healthy?

902
00:43:59,560 --> 00:44:01,640
Speaker 2: How do you approach Colin wich Church? How do you

903
00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:05,080
Speaker 2: approach the Dodgers in twenty twenty two From a betting standpoint, They're.

904
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 4: Probably the least interesting team to try to bet on,

905
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:13,560
Speaker 4: just because of their regular dominance. You mentioned the pitching questions,

906
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:16,440
Speaker 4: and that would be the one area where where I

907
00:44:16,480 --> 00:44:19,200
Speaker 4: would have some question marks. But I actually am a

908
00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 4: huge Tony Gonsolin fan.

909
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:21,680
Speaker 3: Ready.

910
00:44:21,680 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 2: No, he loves cats, Yes he does.

911
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 3: This dude loves cats.

912
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 2: Long story short. I interviewed him once and I interviewed

913
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 2: him over zoom and he got into his obsession with cats.

914
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 2: And he's also a huge Star Wars fan.

915
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:41,160
Speaker 4: Yes, he's basically every single dude I've ever met at

916
00:44:41,200 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 4: a bar right here in Austin, Texas.

917
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:44,840
Speaker 2: So you got him too cool.

918
00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:52,280
Speaker 4: But yeah, So I just think that the divisional prices

919
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:54,919
Speaker 4: and the pennant prices in the World Series prices are

920
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:57,719
Speaker 4: whether they're good or not is kind of beside the point.

921
00:44:57,760 --> 00:45:00,719
Speaker 4: They're just not interesting enough to take a stab at

922
00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:03,719
Speaker 4: this stage in the game. Zarillo kind of mentioned that

923
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 4: although he mentioned they're being value on the division.

924
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:08,360
Speaker 3: Well, that may be the case.

925
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 4: The focus here for me is just on the win total.

926
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 4: I think that ninety eight and a half is too low.

927
00:45:14,120 --> 00:45:17,279
Speaker 4: This team perennially wins one hundred games. I don't see

928
00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:19,000
Speaker 4: a way that they don't win one hundred games again,

929
00:45:19,080 --> 00:45:24,040
Speaker 4: barring some catastrophic injury, not even just catastrophic injury, but

930
00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:29,440
Speaker 4: a catastrophic string of injuries. We saw last year San

931
00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:32,360
Speaker 4: Francisco go on this insane run. It's trying to imagine

932
00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:37,799
Speaker 4: being someone who threw their entire preseason betting budget on

933
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:40,520
Speaker 4: a Dodger's Division last year after they had won like

934
00:45:40,600 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 4: seven straight NLS titles and only to lose to an

935
00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 4: one hundred and eight win Giants team. But I don't

936
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 4: see something like that happening this year. Even if the

937
00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:50,480
Speaker 4: Padres take the leap everyone expects them to do, the

938
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:54,000
Speaker 4: Giants remain competent. It's the Dodgers' division, and the win

939
00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:56,920
Speaker 4: total over is what I like here, although none of

940
00:45:56,920 --> 00:46:00,320
Speaker 4: it is incredibly interesting to me, if I'm being totally honest.

941
00:46:00,400 --> 00:46:02,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, By the way, the Dodgers did finish a game

942
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:04,640
Speaker 2: back of the Giants last year in the NL West

943
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 2: at one O six and fifty six. Let's go to

944
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:10,400
Speaker 2: the Giants next. Giants went one oh seven and fifty

945
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:14,080
Speaker 2: five last year to win the West by one game.

946
00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:17,319
Speaker 2: They're projected wom total this year at a five and

947
00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:21,279
Speaker 2: a half wins. Giants another team that maybe this is

948
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:23,799
Speaker 2: their edge, and we'll get to the Padres two soon

949
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:26,880
Speaker 2: after the Giants, But maybe it is the pitching that

950
00:46:27,000 --> 00:46:29,239
Speaker 2: does keep these teams. And Sean kind of mentioned this,

951
00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:32,520
Speaker 2: why you know, folks being high on these other two

952
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:34,200
Speaker 2: teams is why there might be a little bit of

953
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 2: value in the Dodgers not being such a heavy favorite.

954
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:38,560
Speaker 2: They're a heavy favorite, but not as heavy as we

955
00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:40,759
Speaker 2: think they should be. Sean, what is your so now,

956
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:42,520
Speaker 2: I'm curious, So how do you look at the Giants

957
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:45,759
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two? And well, I'm curious, but you

958
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:48,160
Speaker 2: also said maybe by September this is no longer a race,

959
00:46:48,200 --> 00:46:50,080
Speaker 2: But how do you look at the Giants? We'll get

960
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:51,719
Speaker 2: to the Padres As I said, how do you look

961
00:46:51,760 --> 00:46:53,759
Speaker 2: at the Giants and maybe the best way to bet

962
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:55,279
Speaker 2: them in twenty twenty two?

963
00:46:56,040 --> 00:46:57,400
Speaker 3: You don't know if there is a good way to

964
00:46:57,400 --> 00:47:00,960
Speaker 3: bet them this year. Now. The market projects missed on

965
00:47:01,000 --> 00:47:03,120
Speaker 3: them dramatically last season. I think it was the biggest

966
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:06,040
Speaker 3: miss in the history of CODA. That's going to happen, right,

967
00:47:06,200 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 3: like when a team wins one hundred and something games

968
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:10,799
Speaker 3: and they're projected to finish in the seventies. But I

969
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:12,880
Speaker 3: have them right in line with the market this year

970
00:47:12,920 --> 00:47:15,240
Speaker 3: I'm at eighty five point eight. I was an overbetter

971
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:17,160
Speaker 3: last year, by the way, just want to point that out.

972
00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:18,400
Speaker 3: I was one of the few people was highing the

973
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:21,520
Speaker 3: Giants coming into the year. The market still trends under

974
00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:24,839
Speaker 3: for twenty twenty two. The average projection is eighty one

975
00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:27,160
Speaker 3: point three, which is close to four wins below the

976
00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:30,840
Speaker 3: listed total. I would ignore those I think they're missing something.

977
00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:35,719
Speaker 3: This Giants organization is expertly run, run by farignziety previously

978
00:47:35,719 --> 00:47:38,839
Speaker 3: with the Dodters, previously with the Rays before that, run

979
00:47:38,880 --> 00:47:41,279
Speaker 3: about as well as any organization in baseball right now.

980
00:47:41,320 --> 00:47:43,080
Speaker 3: It seems pretty clear the way that they were able

981
00:47:43,120 --> 00:47:45,839
Speaker 3: to mold pitchers last year like Kevin Galisman and get

982
00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:48,400
Speaker 3: the most out of them. So the Giants might be

983
00:47:48,480 --> 00:47:53,560
Speaker 3: the new factory for post type career or career resurgence.

984
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:56,600
Speaker 3: The rejuvenation machine they seem to have there take these

985
00:47:56,600 --> 00:47:58,319
Speaker 3: guys who are in their thirties and get them back

986
00:47:58,360 --> 00:48:01,520
Speaker 3: to their peak levels. So I wouldn't go batting against

987
00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:03,320
Speaker 3: the Giants, certainly, but I don't know if there is

988
00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:05,759
Speaker 3: enough value to support them anywhere this year.

989
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:09,960
Speaker 2: Do you think Colin Giants taking a giant step back huh. Yeah.

990
00:48:10,320 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 4: So there was a long time where the teams that

991
00:48:12,760 --> 00:48:17,520
Speaker 4: you couldn't trust Pokoda on were the Royals and Athletics,

992
00:48:17,880 --> 00:48:20,160
Speaker 4: and then that kind of transitioned into the Rays, and

993
00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:23,000
Speaker 4: now I'm kind of wondering if it should be the Giants.

994
00:48:23,520 --> 00:48:26,360
Speaker 4: I think this is the biggest difference between win total

995
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:31,480
Speaker 4: projections and Pakoda projections, with Pakota only having the Giants

996
00:48:31,520 --> 00:48:34,719
Speaker 4: at seventy seven point seven wins. Detroit might be in

997
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:38,080
Speaker 4: range also, but the Giants. Pakota clearly is not a

998
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:42,640
Speaker 4: believer in their bounce back. When Pokota goes under on

999
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:45,960
Speaker 4: a team, though by five or more wins than what

1000
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:48,319
Speaker 4: the market has it set at, Pakoda is usually right.

1001
00:48:48,320 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 4: Becaua's not usually right generally, like in a general sense,

1002
00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:58,200
Speaker 4: but it's usually right when it's significantly lower than what

1003
00:48:58,239 --> 00:49:00,839
Speaker 4: the over under is set by the market. So it's

1004
00:49:00,880 --> 00:49:03,360
Speaker 4: really hard to ignore that. And I kind of see

1005
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:06,880
Speaker 4: why you mentioned the pitching factories realo, but we're still

1006
00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:10,480
Speaker 4: depending on a lot of With Kevin Gausman no longer

1007
00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:13,319
Speaker 4: there a lot of Logan Webb continuing what he did,

1008
00:49:13,520 --> 00:49:17,200
Speaker 4: Anthony desk Laffani, Tony Disco continuing what he did, and

1009
00:49:17,239 --> 00:49:20,239
Speaker 4: then Alex Wood and Alex Cobb at the back. It's very,

1010
00:49:20,920 --> 00:49:23,160
Speaker 4: you know, talking on your collar a little bit. Carlos

1011
00:49:23,160 --> 00:49:27,799
Speaker 4: Shroddan obviously has an immense amount of talent. Don't love

1012
00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:29,919
Speaker 4: the idea of the White Sox not even offering him

1013
00:49:30,080 --> 00:49:34,680
Speaker 4: a qualifying offer before he left. But I don't trust

1014
00:49:34,719 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 4: Carlos Rodan to stay healthy. And also, the White Sox

1015
00:49:38,120 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 4: are are for as much crap as I give my

1016
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:42,880
Speaker 4: favorite team. They're one of the smartest teams when it

1017
00:49:42,920 --> 00:49:46,280
Speaker 4: comes to knowing how to handle pitchers and handle pitcher injuries.

1018
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:50,480
Speaker 4: They knew Carlos Rodin's health history better than anyone and

1019
00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:53,960
Speaker 4: didn't give him a qualifying offer, so that makes me

1020
00:49:54,120 --> 00:49:57,080
Speaker 4: nervous for him. From a Giant standpoint, I stayed away

1021
00:49:57,080 --> 00:49:59,279
Speaker 4: from saying that it scared me because I didn't want

1022
00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:05,080
Speaker 4: to get yelled at it, so long winded way of saying.

1023
00:50:05,480 --> 00:50:08,600
Speaker 4: I do like the Giants under. I'll probably be betting

1024
00:50:08,640 --> 00:50:12,720
Speaker 4: the Giants under. But I understand the cautiousness here because

1025
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:13,879
Speaker 4: of what they did last year.

1026
00:50:14,239 --> 00:50:18,840
Speaker 2: MLB dot Com ranks the Giants rotation number six the

1027
00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:21,839
Speaker 2: season heading into the twenty twenty two campaign. Of course,

1028
00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:24,040
Speaker 2: that lineup. They'll have to account for the losses of

1029
00:50:24,200 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 2: Butter Posey and Chris Bryant. They scored the six most

1030
00:50:27,120 --> 00:50:29,719
Speaker 2: runs in baseball last year too, and that's again they

1031
00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:34,359
Speaker 2: only finished a game better than the Dodgers. The Padres.

1032
00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:36,400
Speaker 2: This is a team that I'm looking forward to discuss

1033
00:50:36,440 --> 00:50:40,399
Speaker 2: the Padres. Man. They are interesting. They're projected win total

1034
00:50:40,400 --> 00:50:42,840
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two the San Diego Padres at eighty

1035
00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:46,799
Speaker 2: eight and a half wins. The Padres last year they underperformed.

1036
00:50:46,840 --> 00:50:49,160
Speaker 2: They went seventy nine and eighty three, finished third in

1037
00:50:49,200 --> 00:50:51,680
Speaker 2: the division. Were ever really in it. There was a

1038
00:50:51,719 --> 00:50:54,080
Speaker 2: lot of hype if you remember last year, like during

1039
00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:56,520
Speaker 2: that phase in twenty twenty one in the spring where

1040
00:50:56,600 --> 00:50:58,560
Speaker 2: you want that first series or two of the year

1041
00:50:58,800 --> 00:51:00,600
Speaker 2: and they're playing the Dodgers. You're like, oh, this is

1042
00:51:00,640 --> 00:51:03,280
Speaker 2: going to be the rivalry of the year in baseball

1043
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:05,759
Speaker 2: in terms of like neutral site baseball at least for

1044
00:51:05,840 --> 00:51:07,480
Speaker 2: years truly. So I was looking forward to watching that

1045
00:51:07,480 --> 00:51:08,840
Speaker 2: throughout the year and then it just kind of fizzled

1046
00:51:08,840 --> 00:51:11,960
Speaker 2: out because the Padres weren't all that good. But they

1047
00:51:11,960 --> 00:51:15,440
Speaker 2: make some splashes, right, They make some splashes to their

1048
00:51:15,840 --> 00:51:19,120
Speaker 2: rotation and now I'm curious as to how they bounced

1049
00:51:19,120 --> 00:51:20,239
Speaker 2: back Sean in twenty twenty two.

1050
00:51:20,560 --> 00:51:23,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know, even aside from the additions that

1051
00:51:23,440 --> 00:51:25,440
Speaker 3: they actually made, they get guys like Mike clevenger back

1052
00:51:25,480 --> 00:51:28,440
Speaker 3: who's two years off injuries. So there's a lot of

1053
00:51:28,480 --> 00:51:31,440
Speaker 3: difficulty in projecting this team as well. Blake Snell was

1054
00:51:31,719 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 3: horrible at the beginning of last year and in the

1055
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:36,480
Speaker 3: second half he was like Cy young Worthy, So it's

1056
00:51:36,480 --> 00:51:38,600
Speaker 3: hard to know what versions of these players are going

1057
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:41,120
Speaker 3: to show up almost the key and we talked about

1058
00:51:41,120 --> 00:51:44,200
Speaker 3: this with Atlanta. The biggest difficulty I have in projecting

1059
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:47,040
Speaker 3: a team like this Tatis coming back off of an

1060
00:51:47,080 --> 00:51:50,080
Speaker 3: injury at the start of the season. Does he come

1061
00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:51,640
Speaker 3: back when we think he's going to come back, and

1062
00:51:51,680 --> 00:51:54,840
Speaker 3: does he perform up to expectations. Obviously dealt with recurring

1063
00:51:54,840 --> 00:51:58,680
Speaker 3: injuries last year, doesn't maybe seem like the most durable guy,

1064
00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 3: especially considering the amount of money he got. My projection

1065
00:52:02,160 --> 00:52:04,360
Speaker 3: is at eighty six. I'm a touch low on this team,

1066
00:52:04,800 --> 00:52:07,360
Speaker 3: wouldn't touch the over under. What I'm most interested in

1067
00:52:07,440 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 3: here and right now, based on Fangrasspacoda, I think one

1068
00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:12,759
Speaker 3: of them actually showed world series value on them in

1069
00:52:12,840 --> 00:52:16,040
Speaker 3: eighteen to one. I would wait. I'd wait about a month,

1070
00:52:16,120 --> 00:52:19,920
Speaker 3: six weeks until Tatis comes back, Maybe they trend around

1071
00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:22,200
Speaker 3: five hundred, maybe the Giants even get in front of them,

1072
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:24,360
Speaker 3: and then I'd look for that number to get up

1073
00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:26,759
Speaker 3: closer To's twenty five thirty to one on San Diego.

1074
00:52:27,120 --> 00:52:30,040
Speaker 3: Potentially jump in on an in season World Series play.

1075
00:52:30,360 --> 00:52:32,600
Speaker 2: Makes a lot of sense when you consider, you know,

1076
00:52:32,640 --> 00:52:35,440
Speaker 2: maybe maybe the best player in the National League, Fernando

1077
00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:39,560
Speaker 2: Tatis when right that injury, definitely Colin is a cost

1078
00:52:39,600 --> 00:52:41,760
Speaker 2: for concern for the twenty twenty two Padres.

1079
00:52:42,239 --> 00:52:44,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, Zerrilla and I are one hundred percent aligned here.

1080
00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:46,520
Speaker 4: I didn't know what he was going to say there,

1081
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:49,200
Speaker 4: but my suggestion was going to be to wait about

1082
00:52:49,200 --> 00:52:51,920
Speaker 4: a month. Keep an eye on those futures. You know

1083
00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:56,000
Speaker 4: they're NL Pennant odds right now around plus nine point

1084
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:59,879
Speaker 4: fifty are intriguing considering the level of talent this team has,

1085
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:02,520
Speaker 4: But I do think we can get a better number

1086
00:53:02,640 --> 00:53:04,840
Speaker 4: if they get off to a slow start without Tatieth.

1087
00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:08,880
Speaker 4: I really like this rotation. I'm really high on a

1088
00:53:08,920 --> 00:53:11,759
Speaker 4: you Darvish bounce back. Joe Musgrove kind of is what

1089
00:53:11,840 --> 00:53:15,080
Speaker 4: he is now, which is really good. And like Sean mentioned,

1090
00:53:15,239 --> 00:53:17,399
Speaker 4: Snell was I was fading the hell out of Blake

1091
00:53:17,440 --> 00:53:19,719
Speaker 4: Snell in the first half last season and eventually got

1092
00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:21,160
Speaker 4: to the point in the second half where I was like,

1093
00:53:21,160 --> 00:53:23,560
Speaker 4: I can't bet against this guy anymore. He looks like

1094
00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:25,280
Speaker 4: what he was during his cy young.

1095
00:53:25,160 --> 00:53:26,120
Speaker 2: Season Ina Bay.

1096
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:33,040
Speaker 4: There are some depth questions here, but they've got guys

1097
00:53:33,120 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 4: who are ready to step in. They they have prospects

1098
00:53:35,640 --> 00:53:37,920
Speaker 4: who it seems like fans have been waiting on forever.

1099
00:53:38,000 --> 00:53:41,120
Speaker 4: Mackenzie Gore, he ever gonna you know, he's not even

1100
00:53:41,120 --> 00:53:42,840
Speaker 4: a top one hundred prospect anymore. He was like the

1101
00:53:42,880 --> 00:53:45,840
Speaker 4: number three prospect in all of baseball two years ago.

1102
00:53:45,920 --> 00:53:48,440
Speaker 4: So if he can take a step forward, Ryan Weathers,

1103
00:53:48,480 --> 00:53:50,440
Speaker 4: we saw a little cup of coffee in the majors,

1104
00:53:51,680 --> 00:53:54,200
Speaker 4: could step in. So there's a lot of question marks

1105
00:53:54,280 --> 00:53:58,359
Speaker 4: in the depth, but guys who could potentially break out

1106
00:53:58,440 --> 00:54:00,960
Speaker 4: and so yeah, there's a lot of entry around this team.

1107
00:54:01,000 --> 00:54:03,560
Speaker 4: But I'm going to wait on their future, not touch

1108
00:54:03,600 --> 00:54:05,399
Speaker 4: their wind total. Although I do like the over there

1109
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:07,200
Speaker 4: a little bit, I'm not going to touch the wind total.

1110
00:54:07,280 --> 00:54:09,319
Speaker 4: Wait and see what value we can get on their

1111
00:54:09,360 --> 00:54:11,080
Speaker 4: futures market probably around me.

1112
00:54:11,239 --> 00:54:11,560
Speaker 2: First.

1113
00:54:12,160 --> 00:54:13,759
Speaker 3: What I really like for Oxuper two not only the

1114
00:54:13,880 --> 00:54:15,840
Speaker 3: rotation but the bullpen as well, because if that bullpen

1115
00:54:15,880 --> 00:54:18,320
Speaker 3: stays healthy, that's you're talking about a top five rotation

1116
00:54:18,400 --> 00:54:19,560
Speaker 3: and a top five bullpen together.

1117
00:54:19,719 --> 00:54:19,919
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1118
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:24,000
Speaker 4: The idea of them transitioning the Nelson la Matte full

1119
00:54:24,040 --> 00:54:27,480
Speaker 4: time into reliever like this dude could be like Andrew

1120
00:54:27,560 --> 00:54:30,640
Speaker 4: Miller asks for the padres if he stays healthy and

1121
00:54:30,719 --> 00:54:33,200
Speaker 4: becomes an elite shutdown reliever.

1122
00:54:33,400 --> 00:54:34,919
Speaker 3: And he could pinch on the day's er. He needs

1123
00:54:35,160 --> 00:54:35,640
Speaker 3: rest too.

1124
00:54:35,760 --> 00:54:39,480
Speaker 2: Yes, the confidence in that wind total also feels like

1125
00:54:39,080 --> 00:54:45,000
Speaker 2: the market believes, and the projection reflects faith in their

1126
00:54:45,080 --> 00:54:47,319
Speaker 2: rotation to carry them out of the gate, and then

1127
00:54:47,320 --> 00:54:50,319
Speaker 2: when they get Tatis, he can kind of give that

1128
00:54:50,400 --> 00:54:52,840
Speaker 2: offense a necessary lift. I can't wait. We're going to

1129
00:54:52,880 --> 00:54:56,080
Speaker 2: hear this in July. It's their trade deadline acquisition they

1130
00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:59,000
Speaker 2: didn't have to make for Anando Todd's tease. You hear

1131
00:54:59,000 --> 00:54:59,640
Speaker 2: that all the time.

1132
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:02,840
Speaker 3: Baseball at just have such a concern with risk injuries,

1133
00:55:02,880 --> 00:55:05,280
Speaker 3: like that's that's my major hang up risk injuries Tennis

1134
00:55:05,280 --> 00:55:08,560
Speaker 3: at power and this guy maybe projects to the home

1135
00:55:08,600 --> 00:55:10,680
Speaker 3: run leader in all of baseball, you know, in a

1136
00:55:10,680 --> 00:55:14,919
Speaker 3: full season. So that's the worry is is like, how

1137
00:55:15,000 --> 00:55:16,600
Speaker 3: much power does he have when he comes back? Is

1138
00:55:16,640 --> 00:55:17,400
Speaker 3: the one hundred percent?

1139
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:23,120
Speaker 2: We moved to the Colorado Rockies Colorado last year seventy

1140
00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:26,520
Speaker 2: four and eighty seven. They were a great home team,

1141
00:55:26,640 --> 00:55:29,040
Speaker 2: as we'll talk about throughout the course of the season

1142
00:55:29,239 --> 00:55:32,240
Speaker 2: over on payoff pitch on a nightly, well not nightly

1143
00:55:32,280 --> 00:55:36,399
Speaker 2: Tuesdays and Fridays, payoff pitch during the season. I mean,

1144
00:55:36,800 --> 00:55:39,719
Speaker 2: we'd be remiss to not talk about run totals if

1145
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:42,160
Speaker 2: there's a game at corse Field, because that's just really

1146
00:55:42,160 --> 00:55:43,880
Speaker 2: fun to talk about how many runs are going to

1147
00:55:43,920 --> 00:55:46,760
Speaker 2: be scored at coors Field. And Colorado certainly took advantage

1148
00:55:46,760 --> 00:55:48,560
Speaker 2: at home. They went forty eight and thirty three at

1149
00:55:48,560 --> 00:55:51,080
Speaker 2: home last year, one of the better home teams in baseball.

1150
00:55:51,120 --> 00:55:53,080
Speaker 2: They just couldn't went away from Coursfield because all their

1151
00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:56,360
Speaker 2: hitters just didn't hit the same when they weren't at Corsfield.

1152
00:55:57,160 --> 00:56:00,000
Speaker 2: Projected win total across many sports books at sixty eight

1153
00:56:00,080 --> 00:56:04,359
Speaker 2: and a half for Colorado. Sean Zarrillo, Like I said,

1154
00:56:04,600 --> 00:56:06,960
Speaker 2: and you can obviously disagree that they're a fun team

1155
00:56:06,960 --> 00:56:08,799
Speaker 2: to talk about when they're at home, and like they're

1156
00:56:09,000 --> 00:56:12,160
Speaker 2: during the season team when they're at home, and they're

1157
00:56:12,200 --> 00:56:13,960
Speaker 2: a fun team to I think bet on on a

1158
00:56:14,080 --> 00:56:15,520
Speaker 2: night to night basis, But how do you look at

1159
00:56:15,520 --> 00:56:16,560
Speaker 2: them from a future standpoint?

1160
00:56:16,960 --> 00:56:19,640
Speaker 3: I think Colorado is just an interesting organization in general.

1161
00:56:19,680 --> 00:56:23,680
Speaker 3: They did nothing last year. They stripped their entire analytics staff,

1162
00:56:24,320 --> 00:56:27,560
Speaker 3: seemingly they had no intention of competing, and they drastically overachieved,

1163
00:56:27,600 --> 00:56:29,720
Speaker 3: and they earned all seventy four of their wins seventy

1164
00:56:29,719 --> 00:56:34,000
Speaker 3: five Bythagrean wins. They were over five hundred after May. Bizarre,

1165
00:56:34,160 --> 00:56:36,200
Speaker 3: completely bizarre. They were thought to be the worst team

1166
00:56:36,239 --> 00:56:38,839
Speaker 3: in baseball coming into the year last year, and then

1167
00:56:38,880 --> 00:56:42,080
Speaker 3: look at this offseason eletricreveror story Walk, What are they doing?

1168
00:56:42,360 --> 00:56:42,920
Speaker 2: I don't really know.

1169
00:56:42,960 --> 00:56:44,200
Speaker 3: I don't know if they know what they're doing. But

1170
00:56:44,960 --> 00:56:47,640
Speaker 3: in terms of a projection, I feel like I'm always

1171
00:56:47,680 --> 00:56:49,960
Speaker 3: a little bit low on the Rockies. I have a

1172
00:56:49,960 --> 00:56:53,640
Speaker 3: difficult time. You talked about run scoring at Corsefield. It's

1173
00:56:53,680 --> 00:56:56,280
Speaker 3: difficult to project their pitchers because you use full season

1174
00:56:56,280 --> 00:56:59,120
Speaker 3: projected and their hitters use full season projections, which are

1175
00:56:59,160 --> 00:57:01,799
Speaker 3: baking in the home and splits and then you try

1176
00:57:01,840 --> 00:57:03,880
Speaker 3: to adjust it for defense and whatnot, and all of

1177
00:57:03,880 --> 00:57:06,799
Speaker 3: a sudden you end up overinflating their run total and

1178
00:57:06,920 --> 00:57:09,960
Speaker 3: downgrading their team. But there is an under seventy at

1179
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:12,720
Speaker 3: win bet. There's some sixty nine and a half across

1180
00:57:12,760 --> 00:57:16,400
Speaker 3: the market. My projection is sixty six point three at

1181
00:57:16,400 --> 00:57:18,160
Speaker 3: that under sixty nine and a half. I was leaning

1182
00:57:18,200 --> 00:57:20,680
Speaker 3: under at the seventy at win bet. I took the under.

1183
00:57:21,160 --> 00:57:23,880
Speaker 3: Don't necessarily love it. Like I said, I'm typically low

1184
00:57:24,000 --> 00:57:26,960
Speaker 3: on the Rockies, but I think just you know, slide

1185
00:57:26,960 --> 00:57:29,840
Speaker 3: step forward, slid step back this season, don't necessarily have

1186
00:57:30,040 --> 00:57:32,880
Speaker 3: much to justify it beyond my number, and the market

1187
00:57:32,920 --> 00:57:36,040
Speaker 3: consensus sort of agrees with the listed totals. So you know,

1188
00:57:36,400 --> 00:57:38,800
Speaker 3: small plan under here, but nothing too crazy.

1189
00:57:38,920 --> 00:57:40,880
Speaker 2: But we got for us on the Rockies calling.

1190
00:57:41,160 --> 00:57:43,240
Speaker 4: I'm still pissed at the Rockies. They were my favorite

1191
00:57:43,280 --> 00:57:46,440
Speaker 4: win total bet last year under and I don't know

1192
00:57:46,480 --> 00:57:48,680
Speaker 4: how the hell this team won seventy four games last

1193
00:57:48,720 --> 00:57:51,280
Speaker 4: year's They should be the worst team in baseball. They

1194
00:57:51,280 --> 00:57:53,680
Speaker 4: should be among the worst teams in baseball. So I'm

1195
00:57:53,720 --> 00:57:55,400
Speaker 4: going right back to the well agin this year, and

1196
00:57:55,760 --> 00:57:58,360
Speaker 4: I do like their under, especially now that we see

1197
00:57:59,240 --> 00:58:02,040
Speaker 4: what the Giants turned into. We know the Dodgers are

1198
00:58:02,040 --> 00:58:04,280
Speaker 4: the Dodgers. We know the Padres should be good, and

1199
00:58:04,360 --> 00:58:06,400
Speaker 4: the Diamondbacks, who will get to in a second.

1200
00:58:06,160 --> 00:58:07,320
Speaker 3: Should be much improved.

1201
00:58:08,280 --> 00:58:11,080
Speaker 4: So I think this is the basement of the NL West,

1202
00:58:11,080 --> 00:58:14,240
Speaker 4: which is why I like their win total under. I

1203
00:58:14,280 --> 00:58:16,600
Speaker 4: am a big Herman Marquez fan at the top of

1204
00:58:16,640 --> 00:58:20,160
Speaker 4: that rotation, but he's basically all they have from a

1205
00:58:20,200 --> 00:58:24,560
Speaker 4: starting pitching standpoint. I will give you one other kind

1206
00:58:24,640 --> 00:58:27,000
Speaker 4: of fun little flyer bet with the Rockies, and it's

1207
00:58:27,040 --> 00:58:31,760
Speaker 4: Chris Bryant as a home run leader playing at Coors Field.

1208
00:58:31,800 --> 00:58:35,560
Speaker 4: He's at about forty to one or so. He's gonna

1209
00:58:35,560 --> 00:58:38,880
Speaker 4: be probably my favorite long shot player prop future. But

1210
00:58:38,920 --> 00:58:41,400
Speaker 4: I am betting there under this year. I have less

1211
00:58:41,440 --> 00:58:43,440
Speaker 4: confidence in it than I did last year, but it's

1212
00:58:43,520 --> 00:58:45,160
Speaker 4: I'm going right back to the well.

1213
00:58:45,280 --> 00:58:47,720
Speaker 2: Hey, the Cardinals made up for you being upset with

1214
00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:51,360
Speaker 2: the Rockies, right, I mean the Cardinals got their Rockies didn't.

1215
00:58:51,440 --> 00:58:53,919
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, oh yeah, you'll live It all evened out.

1216
00:58:55,600 --> 00:58:58,520
Speaker 2: Finally, last team we hit on in the National League,

1217
00:58:58,600 --> 00:59:02,400
Speaker 2: the Arizona Diamondbacks, sixty six and a half. They're projected

1218
00:59:02,440 --> 00:59:06,480
Speaker 2: win total across sportsbooks for the twenty twenty two season.

1219
00:59:06,960 --> 00:59:09,800
Speaker 2: Last year, they won just fifty two games. They're one

1220
00:59:09,800 --> 00:59:12,200
Speaker 2: of those teams that had more than one hundred losses

1221
00:59:12,240 --> 00:59:15,320
Speaker 2: fifty two to one and ten. Their record last year,

1222
00:59:15,680 --> 00:59:17,800
Speaker 2: Colin has thoughts we'll get Colin he thinks they're gonna

1223
00:59:17,800 --> 00:59:19,600
Speaker 2: be better. Sean Zerrilla, do you do you think they'll

1224
00:59:19,600 --> 00:59:20,800
Speaker 2: be both this year? I do.

1225
00:59:20,880 --> 00:59:22,479
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna be a lot better. I lost

1226
00:59:22,520 --> 00:59:24,640
Speaker 3: a lot of money on the Diamondbacks last season, so

1227
00:59:24,680 --> 00:59:26,560
Speaker 3: hopefully we can get some of it back this year.

1228
00:59:27,160 --> 00:59:30,800
Speaker 3: That record twenty four game road a losing streak which

1229
00:59:31,080 --> 00:59:33,880
Speaker 3: I probably bet on them in most of those games,

1230
00:59:33,920 --> 00:59:38,000
Speaker 3: so very depressing game last year. I'm generally a fan

1231
00:59:38,040 --> 00:59:40,080
Speaker 3: of the Snakes. I think they tend to be underrated.

1232
00:59:40,640 --> 00:59:42,480
Speaker 3: I don't know why they're just maybe it's their like

1233
00:59:42,520 --> 00:59:45,000
Speaker 3: colors and their logo, or people just don't think about

1234
00:59:45,000 --> 00:59:48,000
Speaker 3: them as frequently as any other team. But they underachieved

1235
00:59:48,040 --> 00:59:51,400
Speaker 3: last year by nine wins, purely by vagory and expectation.

1236
00:59:52,120 --> 00:59:54,840
Speaker 3: They were the worst team in MLB regardless, but they

1237
00:59:54,840 --> 00:59:56,439
Speaker 3: had tons of injuries, and you look at their roster

1238
00:59:56,520 --> 01:00:00,000
Speaker 3: for twenty twenty two and it looks like a decent team.

1239
01:00:00,080 --> 01:00:02,160
Speaker 3: It looks like a seventy five win team on paper.

1240
01:00:02,680 --> 01:00:06,880
Speaker 3: My projection puer number standpoint sixty eight point two. But

1241
01:00:06,920 --> 01:00:09,000
Speaker 3: I'm the low man in the projection market. There's a

1242
01:00:09,040 --> 01:00:12,320
Speaker 3: high seventy three from Dakota, and everybody is between sixty

1243
01:00:12,320 --> 01:00:15,240
Speaker 3: eight and seventy three. So everybody sees this win total

1244
01:00:15,280 --> 01:00:17,120
Speaker 3: going over by three and a half games or more.

1245
01:00:17,400 --> 01:00:20,240
Speaker 3: The market sees closer to five wins. In value, there's

1246
01:00:20,240 --> 01:00:22,520
Speaker 3: an over sixty four and a half juice to minus

1247
01:00:22,520 --> 01:00:25,200
Speaker 3: one twenty five at bet rivers. I would definitely play that.

1248
01:00:25,280 --> 01:00:28,160
Speaker 3: I'd probably play this up to say about sixty six.

1249
01:00:29,720 --> 01:00:31,400
Speaker 3: It's a hold of your nose bet This team suck

1250
01:00:31,480 --> 01:00:35,320
Speaker 3: last year, but if everybody's not, if everybody stays healthy,

1251
01:00:35,320 --> 01:00:37,360
Speaker 3: if they have better injury luck than they did last year,

1252
01:00:37,680 --> 01:00:39,120
Speaker 3: they should be able to meet this win total.

1253
01:00:39,640 --> 01:00:42,040
Speaker 2: Colin, how much better do you have the Diamondbacks in

1254
01:00:42,080 --> 01:00:44,160
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two? I agree with Zarrillo.

1255
01:00:45,080 --> 01:00:47,080
Speaker 4: I also agree with him, I'm just kind of liking

1256
01:00:47,120 --> 01:00:50,160
Speaker 4: this team historically. For me, I think it's just I

1257
01:00:50,200 --> 01:00:52,240
Speaker 4: was a second shift worker for so much of my

1258
01:00:52,280 --> 01:00:54,320
Speaker 4: life that I'd come home from work and flip on

1259
01:00:54,440 --> 01:00:58,000
Speaker 4: MLBtv and the Diamondbacks would be on. So they're a

1260
01:00:58,040 --> 01:00:59,880
Speaker 4: team that's easy to root for. They've never really done

1261
01:01:00,000 --> 01:01:02,760
Speaker 4: anything to piss you off, but.

1262
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:03,680
Speaker 2: Love that handicap.

1263
01:01:04,080 --> 01:01:08,960
Speaker 4: Yes, but man, me and Sorilla lost a ton of

1264
01:01:08,960 --> 01:01:10,840
Speaker 4: money on him last year. I feel like every day

1265
01:01:10,840 --> 01:01:13,240
Speaker 4: we were on them because they were like plus three

1266
01:01:13,440 --> 01:01:17,200
Speaker 4: thirty or something, and they'd have a three to one

1267
01:01:17,280 --> 01:01:21,520
Speaker 4: lead in the eighth inning and then lose nine to three. Yeah,

1268
01:01:21,520 --> 01:01:23,360
Speaker 4: there's there's a lot to like on this team. I'm

1269
01:01:23,400 --> 01:01:26,000
Speaker 4: a big fan of Dalton var show Ka tell Marte

1270
01:01:26,040 --> 01:01:27,640
Speaker 4: they just signed to an extension. I've always been a

1271
01:01:27,680 --> 01:01:29,680
Speaker 4: big fan of him. We're gonna see some Seth Beer

1272
01:01:29,760 --> 01:01:34,080
Speaker 4: this year, one of my favorite names in baseball, been

1273
01:01:34,080 --> 01:01:36,400
Speaker 4: a prospect for a while. He actually went from Houston

1274
01:01:36,440 --> 01:01:38,760
Speaker 4: to Arizona and the Zach Grinky trade a few years ago.

1275
01:01:39,640 --> 01:01:42,880
Speaker 4: So we're gonna see Beer hit some dingers, which I'm

1276
01:01:42,880 --> 01:01:45,520
Speaker 4: really looking forward to. And Zach Gallon's actually one of

1277
01:01:45,520 --> 01:01:49,080
Speaker 4: my favorite kind of stealth stealth pitchers and in all

1278
01:01:49,120 --> 01:01:51,840
Speaker 4: of baseball, you know, from a fantasy perspective, from from

1279
01:01:51,840 --> 01:01:54,280
Speaker 4: someone who you can buy into early before the market adjust.

1280
01:01:54,320 --> 01:01:55,880
Speaker 4: I think we're gonna see a lot of really good

1281
01:01:55,880 --> 01:01:58,720
Speaker 4: things from Zach Gallen this year. I think they're better

1282
01:01:58,760 --> 01:02:01,400
Speaker 4: than the Rockies. I could see them winning seventy ish

1283
01:02:01,880 --> 01:02:04,800
Speaker 4: low seventies amount of games. So I'm definitely going to

1284
01:02:04,840 --> 01:02:06,040
Speaker 4: be having some money on there.

1285
01:02:05,920 --> 01:02:10,320
Speaker 2: Over Gallon and beer. That has potential for great headlines through.

1286
01:02:10,320 --> 01:02:13,720
Speaker 4: Oh my god, commercials, havelines. It's going to be great.

1287
01:02:14,520 --> 01:02:17,000
Speaker 2: Hopefully it helps too to make some money, some money

1288
01:02:17,040 --> 01:02:20,480
Speaker 2: this year and betting the Arizona Diamondbacks in twenty twenty two,

1289
01:02:21,200 --> 01:02:24,240
Speaker 2: that's going to do it. For our National League betting

1290
01:02:24,320 --> 01:02:27,400
Speaker 2: preview here on the Action Network podcast. As a reminder,

1291
01:02:27,440 --> 01:02:30,720
Speaker 2: we have the American League Betting Preview also available on

1292
01:02:30,760 --> 01:02:33,680
Speaker 2: the Action Network podcast. We touched at all thirty teams,

1293
01:02:34,040 --> 01:02:36,320
Speaker 2: fifteen in the American League, fifteen in the National League.

1294
01:02:36,360 --> 01:02:38,840
Speaker 2: Each podcast hits on all fifteen teams. We go division

1295
01:02:38,840 --> 01:02:43,120
Speaker 2: by division, East, Central, West, and the best ways to

1296
01:02:43,200 --> 01:02:47,040
Speaker 2: bet each league. Thanks so much to Sean Zarillo, Colin

1297
01:02:47,080 --> 01:02:49,480
Speaker 2: Whitchurch as well. They do great work with the Action Network.

1298
01:02:49,520 --> 01:02:52,560
Speaker 2: Be sure to follow them all season long. Baseball getting

1299
01:02:52,560 --> 01:02:56,120
Speaker 2: started very soon onth of April is right around the corner.

1300
01:02:56,520 --> 01:02:59,360
Speaker 2: I'm Brendy Glashen Thanks for tuning in everybody. As a reminder,

1301
01:02:59,400 --> 01:03:02,000
Speaker 2: we have a link in the description of this podcast

1302
01:03:02,040 --> 01:03:05,040
Speaker 2: also over on the American League Podcast as well, we

1303
01:03:05,120 --> 01:03:09,000
Speaker 2: have a brand new MLB Action Network betting podcast, Payoff Pitch.

1304
01:03:09,720 --> 01:03:12,040
Speaker 2: During the twenty twenty two season. Payoff Pitch will come

1305
01:03:12,040 --> 01:03:15,600
Speaker 2: to you every Tuesday and Friday to break down the

1306
01:03:15,600 --> 01:03:20,280
Speaker 2: baseball slate that given night, so we will have more

1307
01:03:20,400 --> 01:03:24,840
Speaker 2: in depth conversations on slates as the year unfolds in

1308
01:03:24,920 --> 01:03:27,440
Speaker 2: Major League Baseball. Thanks for tuning into the Action Network

1309
01:03:27,480 --> 01:03:29,200
Speaker 2: podcast and we'll catch you next time.