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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the Podcast. I am Chad Millman

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Speaker 1: from the Action Network. Have you ever tried to win

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Speaker 1: one million dollars? I have done it many many times.

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Speaker 1: I have tried for several years in various NFL season

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Speaker 1: long pick um contests. Last year, professional better Simon Hunter

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Speaker 1: joined the pod every week during the NFL season. He

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Speaker 1: offered pick um contest advice and I came closer than

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Speaker 1: I ever have to cashing. That is totally true. I

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Speaker 1: finished like a game and a half out of winning something.

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Speaker 1: So this year we are taking it a step further.

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Speaker 1: DraftKings offers the Pro Football pick Um National Championship for

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Speaker 1: people in New Jersey. Simon is in New Jersey every week.

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Speaker 1: We're going to decide what picks he should put in.

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Speaker 1: Along the way, as he did last year, he's going

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Speaker 1: to offer to notch insight into how professional letters breakdown games,

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Speaker 1: what they look for, etcetera. But you also, this is

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Speaker 1: what Simon is so good at, get lessons in game

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Speaker 1: theory and strategies to outwit all of the opponents. And

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Speaker 1: and you're becoming in just a minute and a reminder,

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Speaker 1: a reminder we've been doing phrase that pays giveaways all

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Speaker 1: season long, all offseason long. Now football is back. We're

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Speaker 1: not going to stop. Good review the podcast, using the

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Speaker 1: phrase Simon says, if we like it and we randomly

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Speaker 1: choose it, you will win a free action network couldy.

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Speaker 1: We will announce last week's winner at the end of

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Speaker 1: the show. We will announce all winners at the end

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Speaker 1: of the shows. But first, this is almost making me cry.

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Speaker 1: Horribly sad news. We have reached the end of an era.

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Speaker 1: Bob Scucci, bookmaker to the world, my friend of more

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Speaker 1: than twenty years, the man who may or may not

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Speaker 1: have written the odds, my co host on the pod

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Speaker 1: for the past several years, is retiring from the podcast

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Speaker 1: business Scooche, It's up chat. Say it ain't so, brother,

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Speaker 1: say it ain't so. No, I wish I could, but

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Speaker 1: it is so. This will have to be my last podcast.

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Speaker 1: I don't even know what to say. Like the number

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Speaker 1: of people who have been tweeting Abby say, and when

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Speaker 1: is Scooch coming on the podcast? You and I have

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Speaker 1: been friends for twenty years. We've been doing this for

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Speaker 1: more than twenty years. We've been doing this podcast for

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Speaker 1: like six or seven years. The number of things that

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Speaker 1: have happened like the Scooch pod, the like Scooch can

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Speaker 1: set a line on the equator, scoot the scootls hashtag

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Speaker 1: Scooch is ms. Hashtag scooch is ms. There's one story

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Speaker 1: that stands out for me during your time on the podcast.

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Speaker 1: But I need to know what your favorite memory is.

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Speaker 1: I've got a few of them. When Jen and I

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Speaker 1: got married and some of the uh, some of the

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Speaker 1: outpouring of kind of emotion and support of the letters

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Speaker 1: and gifts that was pretty impressive. I I really, uh

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Speaker 1: found that kind of touching and moving. And you know,

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Speaker 1: all the years that I resisted doing the podcast in

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Speaker 1: the in the first place, that kind of made it

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Speaker 1: all worthwhile to me doing so. There was a there

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Speaker 1: was a few of them during that time period. I

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Speaker 1: feel like before you got married, I may have been

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Speaker 1: the longest relationship you've ever had outside of your family. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: I have commitment issues, Yeah, clearly, I I think for

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Speaker 1: me and we should we should, we should let people

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Speaker 1: know why you're retiring from the podcast. It's not because

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Speaker 1: like you're leaving BOYD Gaming. Uh, It's it's because you've

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Speaker 1: been elevated into such a exalted status beyond being bookmaker

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Speaker 1: of the world. Uh that you can't what anymore? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean I can't book the games anymore. I mean

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Speaker 1: they're simply not enough time. I mean that that to

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Speaker 1: me was always the funnest part of the job, and

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Speaker 1: and for for thirty years. Uh it still remains kind

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Speaker 1: of like the most intriguing and exciting part. But with

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Speaker 1: the expansion of sports betting across the country and Boyd

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Speaker 1: Gaming's footprint, uh you know, across uh ten different states

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Speaker 1: and twenty nine different properties, my my time is stretched

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Speaker 1: pretty thin opening up new sports books and uh working

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Speaker 1: with our strategic partners across the country. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: just simply don't have time to be going through the

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Speaker 1: games and to be uh watching all the games in

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Speaker 1: order to be making any kind of odds adjustments or

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Speaker 1: anything like that. I mean, it's just there's not there's

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Speaker 1: not enough hours in the day. I liked the new role,

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Speaker 1: but I missed the most the most fun part of

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Speaker 1: the job, which was actually booking the games. And you know,

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Speaker 1: I really couldn't kind of come on a podcast and

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Speaker 1: talk about moving any of the lines if I'm not

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Speaker 1: really not really doing it anymore. By the way, you

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Speaker 1: might be the only credible person in podcasting who decided

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Speaker 1: they need to know what they're talking about in order

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Speaker 1: to go on a podcast. I can't even believe we're

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Speaker 1: having this conversation. I am thinking back to the time

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Speaker 1: where you had an insurance issue and you called someone

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Speaker 1: in customer service. Do you remember this story? I do, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: It was. It was a work related insurance having to

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Speaker 1: do with my insurance with with board gaming and I

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Speaker 1: and I remember calling uh customer service in Michigan trying

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Speaker 1: to describe what the situation I was in in The

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Speaker 1: person on the other line was like, is this the

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Speaker 1: Bob Scucci that does the podcast? And we ended up

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Speaker 1: talking about talking about the podcast, just some random person

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Speaker 1: on the other end. And I get that all the time.

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Speaker 1: You know. I went to a local golf course out

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Speaker 1: here and I just walked on the golf course, had

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Speaker 1: some free time, and uh, I was just a single

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Speaker 1: uh so I wasn't part of a forceman or anything.

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Speaker 1: And he said what's the name? And I said, I

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Speaker 1: said Bob Scucci and he got like real quiet. I said,

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Speaker 1: is that is that a problem? He's like, do you

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Speaker 1: do a podcast with Chad Milman? I was like, yeah

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Speaker 1: to me. We ended up talking for you know, fifteen

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Speaker 1: minutes before I got on the course. What about the

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Speaker 1: time you got into the limo. No, you didn't get

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Speaker 1: into the limo. Tony got in the limo. My my

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Speaker 1: boss got got in the limo. And he's in the

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Speaker 1: limo's he's in I think Arizona, coming from the Phoenix airport.

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Speaker 1: And they got to talking and he said, you know,

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Speaker 1: what do you do? And he's like, I'm a casino

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Speaker 1: executive and what company? And he said, BOYD gay me

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Speaker 1: And he goes, do you know Bob Scucci. He's like,

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Speaker 1: I'd say, I know him. He works for me some

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Speaker 1: fun stuff. I mean, across the country. I can't believe

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Speaker 1: how many people really, uh you know, tuned in and

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Speaker 1: really really enjoyed the podcast, and how many people that

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Speaker 1: actually came to the Orleans you know, when my office

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Speaker 1: was was mainly over there, and came in just to

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Speaker 1: you know, just to talk with me, and brought in

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Speaker 1: the book and I see the I see the odds

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Speaker 1: right across your your shoulder there right behind your head.

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Speaker 1: You know. They were bringing copies of the book and

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Speaker 1: I and I signed those. I mean, it was really great.

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Speaker 1: The guys, the guys in the Orleans used to give

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Speaker 1: me a hard time. They said, maybe we should get

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Speaker 1: a big cardboard cut out of you, you know, just

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Speaker 1: like this and take take photos. But no, it was

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Speaker 1: really is really touching. It was great. It only took me, uh,

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Speaker 1: almost three years at the Action Network of working from

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Speaker 1: my house and six months of a pandemic to completely

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Speaker 1: redo my office and create a brand new studio space

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Speaker 1: that is conducive for both podcasting and recording video at

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Speaker 1: the same time. And somehow I decided to do it

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Speaker 1: and highlight the book that we did together that came

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Speaker 1: out in two thousand one March of two one. Right

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Speaker 1: when you decide to leave me, Chad Melman wrote a book,

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Speaker 1: Finding is Impeccable. As always, the the impact you've had

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Speaker 1: just on like this show is insane. Matt Mitchell, who's

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Speaker 1: the producer, You may remember when you and I were

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Speaker 1: doing the podcast at ESPN and we would do that

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Speaker 1: you bet your life segment. Matt Mitchell, who was working

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Speaker 1: in sales and had a six week old baby and

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Speaker 1: was married, decided to ditch his job as a thirtysomething

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Speaker 1: guy in sales with a new fan to go study

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Speaker 1: audio storytelling. It's Syracuse. He has a master's degree because

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Speaker 1: he loved the podcast and he loved listening to you.

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Speaker 1: And then he came on you bet your life to

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Speaker 1: tell us the story and you were like, dude, that's crazy.

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Speaker 1: I'm atill now runs this podcast. That's a that is amazing,

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Speaker 1: And I said, and it was crazy, and now it's amazing.

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Speaker 1: So I still feel same same sentiments, Scooch. I don't

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Speaker 1: know what I'm gonna do without you. We've been working together,

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Speaker 1: like working on gambling stuff together. Seriously, Wow, the dead

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Speaker 1: go back quicky one years. Honest to God, Not only

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Speaker 1: am I at the Action Network because of the odds,

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Speaker 1: and not only do the odds work, because like, you

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Speaker 1: were so good at translating what happens in the world

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Speaker 1: of gambling to me in a way that felt colorful

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Speaker 1: and impactful. But then, I don't if you remember this.

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Speaker 1: In two thousand eight, I did a column for ESPN

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Speaker 1: dot com like I saw a wacky line for the

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Speaker 1: Giants and Eagles, Like that's weird. I called you up.

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Speaker 1: You explained to me why the line was so wacky.

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Speaker 1: I did a column that turned into a weekly column,

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Speaker 1: which turned into a daily column, which turned into a podcast,

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Speaker 1: which turned into stuff on E sixty, which turned into

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Speaker 1: hits on Sports Center, which turned into me being the

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Speaker 1: face of gambling at ESPN, which turned into me launching

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Speaker 1: the gambling coverage and hiring people to do it, and

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Speaker 1: then going to Action Network. Yeah, and I'll tell you,

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Speaker 1: you know, you you don't give yourself enough credit. But

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Speaker 1: all those years when sports betting was relegated to Las

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Speaker 1: Vegas and Nevada and some kind of off short places,

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Speaker 1: all those years, you in the mainstream sports media were

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Speaker 1: kind of the voice of sports betting UM, and in

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Speaker 1: some cases it was kind of still kind of a pariah.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it wasn't fully accepted in all circles. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And now twenty years later, it's, uh, you know, it's

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Speaker 1: booming all over the country. It's uh, you know, out

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Speaker 1: the open, socially accepted. And uh, I think you paved

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Speaker 1: a lot of that way. And you know, kind of

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Speaker 1: any shows moving forward or or kind of just kind

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Speaker 1: of imitations of things that you've done over the over

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Speaker 1: the years, Scoots, twenty one years later, I've paved the

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Speaker 1: way so much that I am working off of a

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Speaker 1: cardboard box with props that I hung myself in the

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Speaker 1: corner of my office. Yet you you have gone on

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Speaker 1: to such big things you can't even do this podcast anymore. Look,

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Speaker 1: it's not going to be the same without you. Listeners

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Speaker 1: will be disappointed. No pressure on, Simon Hunter. Obviously, I

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Speaker 1: love you and adore you. We will stay in touch absolutely,

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Speaker 1: and I will share whatever tidbits you give me, even

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Speaker 1: if you don't know anything, I will continue to share

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Speaker 1: them on the podcast. It sounds great, man, ain't going out,

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Speaker 1: but uh, I guess you know the time. The time

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Speaker 1: has come, and uh you know, we'll stay in touch.

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Speaker 1: And if you want to have me on the show

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Speaker 1: at some point just to talk about something else than

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Speaker 1: you know, maybe that will happen. I think it makes

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Speaker 1: perfectly good sense for you, as probably the best bookmaker

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Speaker 1: translating gambling information in the country, to go out right

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Speaker 1: as sports betting in the media is becoming as popular

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Speaker 1: as it is. That is the exact kind of timing

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Speaker 1: you want, Scooch perfect the end of an era. All right, brother,

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Speaker 1: alright to you later. Take care. Coming up next, Simon

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Speaker 1: Hunter with professional better breakdowns for every game on the SCD,

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Speaker 1: five of which will become his entries into the Draft

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Speaker 1: Kings Pro Football pick Up National Championship reminder. Review of

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Speaker 1: the podcast using the phrase sign and says, and if

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Speaker 1: we like it and randomly choose it, you will win

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Speaker 1: a free Action Network hoodie. Here we go and now

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Speaker 1: word from a wise guy with Simon Hunter. Simon, dude,

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Speaker 1: You've got a lot of responsibility, now, brother, a lot

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Speaker 1: of responsibility. Do you know what I'm saying? You're letting

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Speaker 1: a crazy man drive this car. Hopefully I don't crash it,

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Speaker 1: Like I have never been more nervous. We are basically

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Speaker 1: replacing Scooch with you. Scooches decided to step aside, and

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Speaker 1: you fell into our lives last year and who knew

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Speaker 1: that a year later, like you're gonna be like the

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Speaker 1: new husband on Bewitched. Yeah, we're all gonna miss Scooch.

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Speaker 1: I love the insight of hearing from a bookmaker, but

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Speaker 1: hopefully I can bring it another side of the spread

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Speaker 1: and my viewpoints on different games, though. We'll see. We'll

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Speaker 1: see how this season treats us with COVID going on. Well, listen,

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Speaker 1: you were ridiculously good last year and it got better

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Speaker 1: during the off season as you sort of started to

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Speaker 1: really relay like very specific insights and very specific ways

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Speaker 1: in which you look at games. Like to me, one

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Speaker 1: of the tighlights from this offseason was when you were

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Speaker 1: talking about how you rate teams for home field advantage,

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Speaker 1: and not just teams like the Chiefs or teams like

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Speaker 1: the Eagles or the Browns losing points for home field advantage,

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Speaker 1: but teams like the Redskins and the Dolphins gaining for

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Speaker 1: home field advantage. Just remind people, like, that's the kind

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Speaker 1: of insight you're gonna be getting. Remind people how you

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Speaker 1: thought about that as a better Like I talked with

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Speaker 1: our lovely producer Matt Mitchell, it's been funny putting into

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Speaker 1: my system the no fans, because some teams already saying

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Speaker 1: they're gonna add fans, like the Cowboys, Jerry World, He's

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Speaker 1: gonna have fans the whole time. The different teams when

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Speaker 1: I put in the different algorithm of what it's gonna

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Speaker 1: be like with fans and what the point spread should

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Speaker 1: be depending on fans. Like we talked before, teams that

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Speaker 1: produced well in the second half and we're able to

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Speaker 1: come back down big spreads are able to keep big

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Speaker 1: leads when they're at home. It was interesting the teams

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Speaker 1: that did cover that Cleveland, Like I random team people

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Speaker 1: reallyn't think Cleveland was good, but more often not, even

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Speaker 1: the last twenty five years, they've covered at home a

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Speaker 1: lot of games that should mean the Browns have been bad.

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Speaker 1: So just this upcoming week, the books kind of changed

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Speaker 1: all these lines because they're updating. It's official now a

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Speaker 1: lot of these teams don't have fans, and a lot

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Speaker 1: of these sharks at these numbers that these books are

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Speaker 1: kind of acting like some of these teams are gonna

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Speaker 1: have fans. So you saw like the Steelers, they jumped

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Speaker 1: up three points. They're up to six six and a half.

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Speaker 1: Now there's been a lot of movement with the no

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Speaker 1: fans coming in, and this is going to have a

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Speaker 1: massive impact on like the decisions we make every week.

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Speaker 1: We're trying to find five games when a free gloat

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Speaker 1: to money and a lot of this stuff is going

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Speaker 1: to either make us think differently about games than we

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Speaker 1: otherwise would have thought of and imagine how much more

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Speaker 1: complicated it's going to get when we get into the

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Speaker 1: season and injuries are piling up or we're seeing how

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Speaker 1: certain teams are playing or we're seeing trends that are

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Speaker 1: being established. We should look at Week one, the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: at home against the Texans. Their nine point favorites on DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: Right now they were ten. The number has dropped. How

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Speaker 1: are you accounting for home field? There's a super Bowl

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Speaker 1: sort of legacy now to protect Patrick Mahomes, the richest

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Speaker 1: player in football, Deshaun Watson signing a massive contract. Marquee

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Speaker 1: match out hardly great in this thing. Like to me,

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Speaker 1: this is not a game that I would want to bet.

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Speaker 1: We talk all the time. Key number is everything in

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Speaker 1: this game. People don't get that when you when you

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Speaker 1: do gambling long term, these numbers coming to play a lot,

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Speaker 1: especially key numbers. And it opened tend a half and

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Speaker 1: it's sad a tend a half for months and a

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Speaker 1: lot of a lot of sharks are hitting it. But

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Speaker 1: they limit to you to a thousand during the off

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Speaker 1: season and as soon as they opened up the betting

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Speaker 1: these last two weeks, it's just dropped all way down

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Speaker 1: to nine now. So the value on the number is gone.

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Speaker 1: And the Chiefs week one, I mean, you can people

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Speaker 1: make the joke. It's technically after a bye week. Fran

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Speaker 1: you read right, because they didn't have a game the

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Speaker 1: week before, and all he does is cover and win

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Speaker 1: after bye weeks. So it's one of those where if

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Speaker 1: you hit the number earlier, you got the ten and

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Speaker 1: a half to ten. That's a good number. Other than that,

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Speaker 1: you should stay away, just play the over and enjoy

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Speaker 1: the first game of the year, because that's what I like.

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Speaker 1: I like the over. You could do like the over

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Speaker 1: in this game. The total in this game is sitting

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Speaker 1: at what it's been, jumping up and down a little bit.

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Speaker 1: It opened up at fifty four and it went down

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Speaker 1: because Sharp's hit it down like the under, because that's

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Speaker 1: gonna be the play. If you've been big money, like

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Speaker 1: a lot of these guys are, they're gonna be hitting

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Speaker 1: the under and they're gonna take the dog. Just because

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Speaker 1: this whole week has me. All these lines are based

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Speaker 1: off last year. That's why Week one a lot of

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Speaker 1: guys joke. There's a lot of good value here. But

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Speaker 1: the problem is you stare at these lines for five months,

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Speaker 1: so you kind of kind of scare yourself out of

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Speaker 1: these different teams. Right Week one screws everybody else. But

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Speaker 1: I love that that right out of the gate, the

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Speaker 1: Thursday night and we get to root for a lot

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Speaker 1: of freaking points. And that's why, like, I think the

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Speaker 1: offense is gonna have a step on the defense here

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Speaker 1: early on, just because especially these offense that have been

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Speaker 1: together a couple of years now, and the Chiefs are

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Speaker 1: one of them, this is gonna be like riding a bike.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna pick right back up. Maybe it'll be weird

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Speaker 1: at first because they're coming off the Super Bowl. We

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Speaker 1: saw them score fifty one points last year and three quarters.

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Speaker 1: So this guy's living with the Chiefs, all right. Packers

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Speaker 1: Vikings Vikings. Mine is two and a half, playing in Minnesota.

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Speaker 1: This game opened at three, which would indicate that we

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Speaker 1: saw some money coming in and the Packers, which makes

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Speaker 1: no sense to me because I would bet the Vikings

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Speaker 1: as field goal favorites are more than field goal favorites

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Speaker 1: in this spot with this team against the Packers every

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Speaker 1: single time, and this, honestly, in a normal year, this

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Speaker 1: is an auto play at home. Under Zimmer, there's cover

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Speaker 1: right at home, so you're looking at a team that

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Speaker 1: you're getting less than a field goal key number at

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Speaker 1: home week one. I honestly, it wouldn't be against putting

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Speaker 1: it and then our contest. But the only thing gives

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Speaker 1: me pause is that it's no fans, it's they're losing

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Speaker 1: that You're already losing value right there. Like this number

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Speaker 1: on a neutral field, you probably would have it at

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Speaker 1: a pick. I mean this, Both these teams have weaknesses.

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Speaker 1: Minnesota has got rid of their entire defense, so they're

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Speaker 1: not their entire but all their cornerbacks. They have three

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Speaker 1: new corners and they're all rookies. So that's the only

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Speaker 1: thing that gives me pause. You're going against Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 1: with three rookie cornerbacks. You just completely rebutted everything I said.

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Speaker 1: Made me completely doubt the idea that the Vikings, who

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Speaker 1: I have to win the Super Bowl, and the Packers,

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Speaker 1: who I have, is regressing aggressively off of their thirteen

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Speaker 1: win season. It's not a game we should put in

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Speaker 1: the contest. Yeah, let's we'll hold on that one. Oh boy,

349
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Speaker 1: Lions and Bears, Oh my, this is terrible. This is

350
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Speaker 1: freaking terrible. And the money, like I'm looking at the

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Speaker 1: Action Network gap right now, the money has been driving

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Speaker 1: this number higher, right because it opened the Lions minus

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Speaker 1: ye now it's at minus three. Obviously, this is anti

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Speaker 1: true bisky. Is this thinking the Lions defense has gotten better?

355
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Speaker 1: Is this thinking they played really well until Matthew Stafford

356
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Speaker 1: was injured? What's driving the market here? What's driving you're thinking?

357
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Speaker 1: I think this is gonna be one of those where

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Speaker 1: Stafford's coming to this year and he's kind of right

359
00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:43,440
Speaker 1: and hot because he played. He didn't finish the last game,

360
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Speaker 1: but I think he played a total of eight games.

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Speaker 1: If you look at numbers, he was three four and one,

362
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Speaker 1: but he was leading the league in yards. I think

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Speaker 1: he was leading the league in touchdowns at the time

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Speaker 1: he got hurt. So a lot of these people are

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Speaker 1: kind of coming in with the not googly eyes, but

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Speaker 1: they're they're forgetting that this team has a lot of

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Speaker 1: holes on defense and they have matt for Trisha, who

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Speaker 1: I don't even think he's been his career. People are

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Speaker 1: really back in the lines, And in my opinion, I'll

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Speaker 1: take that three with the Bears on the road because

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Speaker 1: at worst I see it in a push Wow. Now

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Speaker 1: for our contest, though, just because that'd be such a

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Speaker 1: homer pick with you, it would be a homer pick,

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Speaker 1: and I normally hate to take the Bears in this spot,

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Speaker 1: but if you if we went through this right now

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Speaker 1: and you told me this is one of the five

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Speaker 1: best picks. And I am completely cloud in these situations.

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Speaker 1: Right Like, I look at the Bears and I think

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00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:31,320
Speaker 1: I know more about them than anybody else. But I'm

380
00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:34,880
Speaker 1: also looking at this team as a Mitch Drubhisky led

381
00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:37,480
Speaker 1: team until Nick Foles comes in to save the day

382
00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:42,679
Speaker 1: with a defense that could be amazing. But David Montgomery,

383
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:46,119
Speaker 1: who has been banged up, And so I see the

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00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:48,080
Speaker 1: three and I think, well, I can see the Bears

385
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Speaker 1: getting blown out in this game. And that's the tough

386
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Speaker 1: for is that we know that Mitch he has good

387
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 1: abilities as a QB. It's something Matt Naggy to highlight them.

388
00:20:57,359 --> 00:21:01,040
Speaker 1: Last year he failed Trubisky not highlighting his good attributes.

389
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:02,680
Speaker 1: He's good on to speak, he's good moving out of

390
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Speaker 1: the pocket. And the year you guys had a good run,

391
00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:07,360
Speaker 1: it was because he was letting him do those things.

392
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Speaker 1: He was let him get outside the pocket. And supposedly

393
00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:11,600
Speaker 1: Naggi is saying he's gonna be more open to that.

394
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:13,680
Speaker 1: He's gonna have him on the move more. The way

395
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:16,320
Speaker 1: your guys defense lines up, it's a really good matchup

396
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:19,440
Speaker 1: for you against the lines. But the problem with it

397
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:21,440
Speaker 1: is just that it's three, so we're kind of on

398
00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:23,360
Speaker 1: to like a push number. We don't want to push

399
00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 1: in this competition, so let's let's keep it. We don't

400
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Speaker 1: have any games that were like so far, and I

401
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 1: can't imagine we're gonna like Jaguars plus eight against the Colts. Now,

402
00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:37,919
Speaker 1: this makes me sick to my stomach. This like is

403
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:44,200
Speaker 1: such a no brainer. Take the home dog pick. Tell

404
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:45,680
Speaker 1: me why I don't want to do it now, I'm

405
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,200
Speaker 1: with you. I love the Jags like I. I think

406
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,679
Speaker 1: it's one of those where as a pro, like I was,

407
00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:53,200
Speaker 1: I flew up to Vegas two weeks ago and I

408
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:55,679
Speaker 1: was just hanging out these guys, just talking before the

409
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:59,160
Speaker 1: season starts, and all of them are already laughing, saying

410
00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 1: that they're already on the game just because the Colts

411
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:04,119
Speaker 1: and indoor team going outside, so they are a fast

412
00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:06,639
Speaker 1: team and they're going down to Florida in the heat,

413
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 1: and it's one of those spots where everybody, all the money,

414
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 1: all public is going to be on the Colts, and

415
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:14,919
Speaker 1: the Jags line just keeps getting that up here. So

416
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:16,439
Speaker 1: now it's up to plus eight when it was at

417
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:19,119
Speaker 1: plus seven. So I do love this spot. But we

418
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Speaker 1: don't have to get ugly yet, we don't have to.

419
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Speaker 1: We don't have to put the Jags. I'll put them

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Speaker 1: on the side. Well, I can't think of any reason

421
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:25,560
Speaker 1: not to put them there. Like this is how you

422
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Speaker 1: win the contest, right is nobody's gonna want to pick.

423
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:32,399
Speaker 1: Nobody's gonna want to pick the Jacks. And everything you

424
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 1: just said is true except for the fear that, like

425
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 1: the Jacks have basically given away their team, they have

426
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:39,680
Speaker 1: given away their team. But I think it's the same

427
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 1: thing where the people said the same exact thing about

428
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 1: Miami last year and we saw how that ended because

429
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:48,480
Speaker 1: people understand the difference between these guys that are on

430
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:52,480
Speaker 1: the Jags and say the Colts. It's very, very minor,

431
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 1: but that's what makes the cults so great, is that

432
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 1: the guys are just that much better. But it's it's

433
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 1: one of those where it's Philip rivers first game, whether

434
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 1: brand new team going against a team that they have

435
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 1: the same quarterback and they're running in the same pretty

436
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 1: much scheme as they did last year. So it's one

437
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 1: of those where I can see what the public's gonna

438
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:10,560
Speaker 1: be all over the cold because Jags are grated out

439
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 1: as the worst team this year. Plenty of people have

440
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 1: been betting on them going to own sixteen. It's so early.

441
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:16,239
Speaker 1: We don't have to be the sharpest people in the room.

442
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 1: We don't have to take the plus eight, but it

443
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,200
Speaker 1: feels like an automatic bet for me. All Right, we're

444
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 1: putting the Jackson. Let's do it. Let's do Dolphins plus

445
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:29,680
Speaker 1: six and a half again the Patriots. It's like impossible

446
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,200
Speaker 1: to even say, right because and I've seen the draft.

447
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,679
Speaker 1: Kings got it up to six and a half. Now Dolphins,

448
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 1: and that's that's Actually people don't think six of the

449
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 1: key numbers actually is and a lot of times that

450
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,679
Speaker 1: number falls on six, but these miss extra points. That

451
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 1: happens a lot. I do really love what the Dolphins

452
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,959
Speaker 1: have done special on defense. Their their secondary is incredible.

453
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:50,200
Speaker 1: But how are we gonna go against the most prepared

454
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:53,480
Speaker 1: coach in the NFL Week one? It's just like, I

455
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 1: feel like we'll take the Dolphins and then at the

456
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 1: end of the game they'll win. The Patriots won thirty

457
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 1: four to seven, will be like, well, probably us all

458
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 1: that coming, right, So it's kind of tough. It's tough

459
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 1: to take the Dolphins here, well, it's tough to take

460
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 1: it's tough to take the Dolphins. And listen, last year,

461
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,200
Speaker 1: we love the Dolphins, like I think we both felt.

462
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 1: I felt more like a wise guy last year on

463
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 1: the Dolphins than I did on just about any other team,

464
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 1: because you can see by week three that they were

465
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 1: a team that was playing really hard and just had

466
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 1: a talent gap. And once It's magic started playing every week,

467
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:29,640
Speaker 1: you knew that, like at least at the quarterback level,

468
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:31,400
Speaker 1: they were going to be serviceable and that would keep

469
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,880
Speaker 1: them in games. I don't want to bet against Bill Belichick,

470
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 1: even though they've lost so many players and like any

471
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:39,200
Speaker 1: other person looks at that roster and is not impressed.

472
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,119
Speaker 1: I just don't want to bet against guys who have

473
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 1: been able to figure out schemes so many times. Even

474
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 1: with the Dolphins team that I am actually really high on,

475
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:48,119
Speaker 1: I'm trying to win some money here, right, I'm not

476
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 1: trying to like be a genius on like individual games,

477
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:54,119
Speaker 1: So this to me would not be part of a

478
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 1: sort of perfect portfolio, all right. Simon Eagles six and

479
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:03,359
Speaker 1: a half point road dogs against the Washington football team.

480
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 1: By the way, this is like exactly what we talked

481
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:08,959
Speaker 1: about during the off season, in which you've got a

482
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 1: football team from Washington that could potentially benefit from being

483
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 1: at home without any fans because the stadium won't be

484
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 1: full of rhody Eagles fans. Right, A lot of people

485
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 1: are thinking here that this kid's for real in Washington,

486
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 1: and I am not buying it at all. I do.

487
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 1: I am down on the Eagles this year, and it

488
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 1: hurts me to say as an Eagles fan, But like

489
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:31,880
Speaker 1: we talked about months ago, even before the injurs even happen,

490
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 1: they're an age team, so that my mentality was they're

491
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 1: not gonna go and scathe and they've already been hitting

492
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:39,879
Speaker 1: two major spots the Eagles. And I know Washington has

493
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,920
Speaker 1: a great pass rush, but to think that Haskins and

494
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,439
Speaker 1: keep up with Wents in this game, it's it's really,

495
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 1: it's not likely. And the number is sitting at six,

496
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 1: a good number to take the Eagles at. But I'll

497
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 1: just hold off on with you just because I don't

498
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 1: like the Eagles OH line matched up against Washington D line.

499
00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 1: I would never ever say Haskins can't match up with

500
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:05,080
Speaker 1: Wentz Wentz to me, I'd say over the last season

501
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 1: and a half when he's been healthy, it's not the

502
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 1: same quarterback he was before he injured his knee that

503
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:12,479
Speaker 1: first time. Like, he's not as dynamic. He was one

504
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,120
Speaker 1: of those guys where if it was a third and whatever,

505
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 1: you were all of a sudden worried about could he

506
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 1: converted if you were betting against him. I don't get

507
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 1: that sort of feeling of invincibility anymore. Well, let me

508
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:25,439
Speaker 1: hit you with a little number. Carson Wentz is the

509
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 1: only player in NFL history through for four thousand yards

510
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,639
Speaker 1: and I have a receiver over five yards. He's one

511
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 1: of these guys that he can make the guys around

512
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 1: him better, and he carried that team last year and

513
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 1: won that division. But I'm with you. People are down

514
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 1: him because he hasn't had the numbers they did have

515
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 1: that year. There's just been a lot of drama behind

516
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 1: the scenes. You have teammates coming out against him, saying

517
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 1: he's selfish and that they don't really like playing with

518
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 1: him and things like that. I think it is a

519
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,679
Speaker 1: proven to me a year for him that he if

520
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 1: he can take this team and somebody won this division

521
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:56,960
Speaker 1: when everyone's really being all in on the Cowboys. I

522
00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 1: think that would be a big statement for Carson this year.

523
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 1: Do you have any faith in the Eagles that they

524
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 1: could win that division? Like my numbers saying no chance,

525
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:08,479
Speaker 1: they might like but if you if you're into numbers

526
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 1: and you just put it on paper the Cowboys, everything

527
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 1: pops out. Cowboys biggest weakness is their secondary, but everything

528
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 1: else on that team is just really, really fine tuned.

529
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 1: And the Eagles already have so many holes along the

530
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 1: offensive line. They gotta banged up our receiving corps. They

531
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 1: don't have good linebackers, and if one of their cornerbacks

532
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 1: goes down, their season is pretty much done. They only

533
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 1: have two good corners, so for the season long, bed,

534
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 1: I'm I'm in on Dallas. But in like these kind

535
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:37,200
Speaker 1: of games early on here where the Eagles were still

536
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:40,439
Speaker 1: pretty healthy, I would take the Eagles. Should we make

537
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 1: the Eagles one of our picks right now? No, because

538
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:47,920
Speaker 1: there's other favorites I like better. Wow, that is foreshadowing.

539
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:50,000
Speaker 1: I like that? Is it? The Ravens minus seven and

540
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:54,479
Speaker 1: a half or minus eight against the Browns? I love it?

541
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:56,119
Speaker 1: What's wrong with me? Chat? Why do I love this

542
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:58,679
Speaker 1: number so much? Do you seriously I do. It's just

543
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 1: like it might system. I got this at ten and

544
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:05,200
Speaker 1: a half, and it's just like, is there Brown's hype again? Who? Who?

545
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:08,160
Speaker 1: Who's believing in the Browns again? When we're going against hardball?

546
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 1: Who's just running a top notch franchise over there? I

547
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 1: mean every year the Ravens, even when Flacca wasn't good,

548
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 1: they were still competitive in most of those games, and

549
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 1: then last year when they had a good quarterback, they

550
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 1: just destroyed everyone opening week. Ravens want to make a statement.

551
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:23,719
Speaker 1: Lamars heard everything this whole offseason that he's a trump artist.

552
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 1: I like this Ravens favorite here. You're not buying like

553
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:31,640
Speaker 1: Baker sort of having an improved offense. You're not buying

554
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:36,880
Speaker 1: anything about their defense being better, like being more organized.

555
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 1: You just said you're not in a Stefanski like this

556
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 1: is a statement to me, this is a statement game

557
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 1: for the Browns. Like I'm buying it, Like I like

558
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 1: the direction they're going. Their biggest weakness last year is

559
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 1: o line, and they've made signings to correct that, and

560
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 1: I know they have improved their defense, but it's one

561
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:55,280
Speaker 1: of those where this is a rookie head coach going

562
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:59,080
Speaker 1: against a very very very smart and savvy established head coach.

563
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 1: From everything I read, everyone on the Ravens is good

564
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 1: to go. I know they lost um an offensive linement,

565
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 1: that's a big deal, but I just liked them opening day.

566
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 1: If you if you go through the history, the Ravens

567
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 1: really performed well Week one at home. Well look last

568
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 1: year they were a juggernaut from the second the game started,

569
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 1: right and so that was what put them on the

570
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:20,720
Speaker 1: path to being one of the best teams in the

571
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 1: a f C to Lamar Jackson winning the m v P. Essentially,

572
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 1: what you're saying to me with this number, as big

573
00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 1: as it is, is that you see the Browns basically

574
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 1: performing like the Dolphins a week one. It's not the

575
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 1: day the Browns. It's another year. They're coming and hyped up.

576
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 1: And who knows what Baker's mindset is. I know he's

577
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 1: saying that he's gonna be more focused, He's hearing everything

578
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 1: like that. But who would you rather back Baker madefielder

579
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 1: a little more and this kind of spot, It's just

580
00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 1: an easy, easy choice for me. Where this this line

581
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 1: has been bent down, it should have been. It should

582
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 1: be at ten and it's it's it's now sit at

583
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:56,040
Speaker 1: eight minus eight. So I like the value on that line. Dude.

584
00:29:56,360 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 1: I love taking big favorites like it's my blind spot. Honestly.

585
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 1: I will always, like look at a number like that

586
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 1: and think I can't take it. It's too big and

587
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 1: I'm afraid of it, and it feels like a sucker's bet.

588
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 1: And yet here you are a professional who does this

589
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 1: for a living, coming in and telling me you're okay

590
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 1: with this number because you've got a formula that has

591
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 1: it an even higher number, and you've done this in

592
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 1: the past, like I remember you did this with Kansas City,

593
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 1: like in the playoffs last year. I love it. Like

594
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 1: the people always think about sharps, just always take dogs.

595
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:27,960
Speaker 1: I think one of the hardest part has been a

596
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 1: sharp is trying to convince people about taking the favorites

597
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 1: because you always feel more comfortable having the dog. It's

598
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:34,960
Speaker 1: nice to know when we start the game we have

599
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 1: the Browns, we'd be up eight points. It's one of

600
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 1: those you get to pick and choose these spots of

601
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 1: these favorites, and when I see value in the line,

602
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 1: that's that's when I really go after and that's where

603
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 1: I'm seeing with the Ravens. All Right, we got the

604
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 1: Jets visiting the Bills plus six and a half. I

605
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 1: have so many different opinions on this Jet team, and

606
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 1: I feel like you're one of the guys who actually

607
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 1: was higher on the Jets than most. Am I misremembering

608
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 1: that you were remembering, right, But that was before they

609
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 1: pretty much forever they're too best players, So we've done

610
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 1: that before they got to Adams And yeah, so yeah,

611
00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:09,719
Speaker 1: I'm awtome in the sense that I think Joe Douglas

612
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 1: is trying to prep for the future now they're GM.

613
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 1: I believe in Sam Donald and a lot of people

614
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 1: have kind of given up on They're they're thinking they're

615
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 1: taking for Trevor Lawrence and things like that. But I

616
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 1: still think the weapons he has around, he's gonna be

617
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 1: stealing a couple of games here, And like this opening game,

618
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 1: the Bills and the Jets, they always play each other

619
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 1: really tough, especially earlier in the year. Even one of

620
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 1: them is terrible, the other one's good. They usually play

621
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 1: each other really tough. The no fans for the Bills

622
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:35,680
Speaker 1: is kind of making me lean the Jets because Bills

623
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:37,720
Speaker 1: Mafia everyone knows the ABE the best fan bases in

624
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 1: the world. So it's one of these spots here where

625
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 1: I would I'm going Jets, and not many people are

626
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 1: gonna be riding with me. Well, you're going Jets plus

627
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 1: six and a half on DraftKings right now? Is it

628
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:53,640
Speaker 1: a you're going Jets. I put them in with the

629
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 1: Jabs and the Ravens as part of my portfolio for No. No,

630
00:31:57,920 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 1: I'm just stilling the Bettors out there. No, that's right.

631
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 1: I'm liking the Jets in the spot, but not in

632
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 1: if not for our contest, that's too too sharp. That's

633
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,960
Speaker 1: what we are giving people, not just picks for a contest,

634
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 1: but picks for every single game on the board. Raiders

635
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 1: minus three and a half against the Panthers. This feels

636
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 1: pretty freaking lopsided. Yeah, it feels like a trap because

637
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 1: I know there's they're sucking me in on the Panthers

638
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 1: because in my mind, all Teddy Bridgewater does his cover

639
00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 1: and three and a half against Derek Carr. Guy, we

640
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 1: saw them fourth down throw the ball out of bounce

641
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 1: like just Derek cars be kind of come up joke

642
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 1: as of late, and you have them traveling across Country

643
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 1: to come play the Panthers. I like this Panthers number,

644
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 1: but it makes me work because it does feel like

645
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:43,320
Speaker 1: a trap. I'm giving us this three and a half

646
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 1: at Draftkiings, right, so what do we do about that? Like,

647
00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 1: you're a professional, you see a trap number, what do

648
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 1: you have a power rated at? Well, for week one,

649
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 1: I would take this. I had this at plus plus

650
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 1: one for the Panthers. I pretty much had it a pick.

651
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 1: I just moved to plus one with the no fans

652
00:32:57,200 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 1: for the Panthers. But I'm gonna bet that number, especially

653
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:03,680
Speaker 1: like all these other websites are showing three DraftKings and

654
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:06,640
Speaker 1: bet MGM the only ones showing three and a half.

655
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 1: So that's a good number right now, you're gonna bet it,

656
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:12,120
Speaker 1: but you're not gonna put it in the pick hum contest.

657
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 1: We get put on the side because that's that If

658
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:15,560
Speaker 1: it stays at three and a half, that's like really

659
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 1: really enticing just just knowing that we have that coverage,

660
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 1: especially with Teddy Bridgewater. I do like that number just

661
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:26,239
Speaker 1: so people know, Like, picks in this contest lock at

662
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 1: ten o'clock on Sunday morning, So like the lines move around,

663
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 1: the names and numbers that we are choosing right now

664
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 1: are based on where they are at on a Tuesday afternoon,

665
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:38,680
Speaker 1: but as it gets closer and will update like Simon's

666
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:42,240
Speaker 1: got a Twitter handle at Simon Hunter Tan will update

667
00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 1: throughout the day, throughout the week, and then on Sunday

668
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 1: morning where we land, and I'll be writing about this

669
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 1: on Action dot Action network dot com so you can

670
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 1: keep track of what we're doing. Seahawks minus one and

671
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 1: a half traveling to Atlanta plus one and a half.

672
00:33:57,200 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 1: This is one of these games where a lot of

673
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 1: the seas ranks is what Atlanta's weaknesses. They have a

674
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:05,120
Speaker 1: great secondary of the Seahawks. The strongest part of the

675
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:07,840
Speaker 1: Falcons is obviously the wide receivers. This number has been

676
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:09,880
Speaker 1: bouncing around a little bit. It was at one and

677
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:11,360
Speaker 1: went up to one and a half. Now it's up

678
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 1: to two. In some books, I do get why people

679
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 1: are gonna take the Falcons here. It's a short home

680
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 1: dog and people have high hopes for the Falcons and

681
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:22,400
Speaker 1: got the Seahawks traveling across country during all that's going on.

682
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:25,399
Speaker 1: They suppose I saw an article Pete Carroll doesn't even

683
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 1: know their travel plans yet He's still up in the

684
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 1: air about what they're gonna exactly be doing for this

685
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 1: for going to Atlanta, But I like the Seahawks. It's

686
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:36,799
Speaker 1: just older. Everything that you could get away with beating

687
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 1: the Seahawks with Atlanta doesn't do good and I'm gonna back.

688
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:43,719
Speaker 1: I'm gonna back to Sea l Seahawks here. But dude,

689
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 1: it goes against every wise guy principle. You do not

690
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:51,759
Speaker 1: bet a short road favorite. Winning on the road is

691
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:56,279
Speaker 1: so freaking hard. What obviously you like the matchup? What

692
00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 1: are you power rating this at? So I had this

693
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:02,880
Speaker 1: a Seahawks MINU three and it has moved up a

694
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:05,960
Speaker 1: little bit, so it's getting closer to that number. But

695
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:08,160
Speaker 1: you do have to break the rules sometimes when there's

696
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 1: different tendencies of these teams, because you can't just always

697
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 1: go by the book. Like there's plenty of times last

698
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 1: year where I broke rules on the show and it

699
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 1: actually worked out for us. But this one is just tricky,

700
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 1: Like that's we can stay away from if it makes

701
00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:21,880
Speaker 1: you nervous, But it doesn't really PHASEE me. That's a

702
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 1: cross country flight for the Seahawks because it's the first

703
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 1: game of the year. They haven't done any preseason either.

704
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:28,840
Speaker 1: So it's like their bodies are arrested. They should be

705
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 1: ready for this. You know what, I don't ever buy

706
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:34,400
Speaker 1: that across country flight theory. I actually think it's like

707
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 1: it's not something that it impacts betting. I'm just sort

708
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:40,400
Speaker 1: of I'm not a fan of betting road favorites. Now,

709
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 1: if you're telling me, like, part of this is for

710
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 1: me to learn new habits and not be sort of

711
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 1: adhering to all the axioms that may or may not

712
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:50,919
Speaker 1: be working and looking at the real numbers. If you're

713
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 1: telling me, like, of the sixteen fifteen games being played

714
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 1: on Sunday or fourteen and Monday, this along with the

715
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 1: Jags and the Ravens, is one of your best picks,

716
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 1: then we go with it. This is not one of

717
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 1: my best picks. Then we walk away. We walk away.

718
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 1: Tell me the Chargers minus three and a half is

719
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 1: not one of your best picks against the Bengals. I

720
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 1: actually do love the Bengals. Here. I was hoping it

721
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:15,880
Speaker 1: was gonna be they're gonna start the rookie for the Chargers.

722
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:20,359
Speaker 1: But Taylor, he's a good quarterback, he's safe, he's he's

723
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:22,800
Speaker 1: a solid player. But I don't think this line is

724
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:25,279
Speaker 1: taken into account how much Darwin James is worth the

725
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 1: Chargers defense. He's arguably a top three safety in this league,

726
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:32,359
Speaker 1: and they don't have the cornerbacks that can really keep

727
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 1: up with this Bengals receiving corps. So people are gonna

728
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,440
Speaker 1: be off because they're gonna thank Bengals first game shitters

729
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:40,319
Speaker 1: for Joe Burrow, but there's really no fans there. It's

730
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 1: gonna be like a scrimmage for him. So I do

731
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 1: like this number with the Bengals at home opening week,

732
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:47,759
Speaker 1: But we hate the Bengals for like they're total. They're

733
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 1: totals five and a half for season wins. We hate

734
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 1: the Bengals. That's mainly just because of their division. I

735
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:56,280
Speaker 1: just think the Browns have improved so much. The Pittsburgh's

736
00:36:56,880 --> 00:36:59,400
Speaker 1: really improved, and we all know how good Ravens are.

737
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 1: So that's why I'm so down on them, just because

738
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna be able to get steal

739
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:04,720
Speaker 1: a lot of games in their division. This is outside

740
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:06,719
Speaker 1: of their division. I think they can. They match up

741
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:09,480
Speaker 1: well against the Chargers. A dude, We're heading into like

742
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:13,239
Speaker 1: the final stretch of games here, and so far the

743
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:16,799
Speaker 1: only games that we love are the Jags plus eight

744
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:19,920
Speaker 1: and the Rags Mine is eight at home against the Browns.

745
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:23,439
Speaker 1: So I'm assuming we've got three games that we love

746
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:28,879
Speaker 1: from this last little section. So let's get into all

747
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:31,960
Speaker 1: of the rest of the league games. The Chargers Bengals

748
00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:33,920
Speaker 1: is one of them. We're going to avoid that the

749
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:36,840
Speaker 1: rest of the late games. The Buccaneers, Tom Brady and

750
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:39,560
Speaker 1: his first game at New Orleans as a three and

751
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 1: a half point road dog. Everybody's gonna be on this

752
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:45,880
Speaker 1: plus three or the Buccaneers, and I think that is

753
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 1: the side you have to take. Just from our history

754
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:50,239
Speaker 1: with the Saints, We've seen so many times I'm coming

755
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:53,320
Speaker 1: out slow to start the season, So if you wanted to,

756
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 1: if you were about the Bucks, I would take that

757
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:58,400
Speaker 1: three and a half. But me personally, I'm gonna probably

758
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 1: be bet in the Saints just because everyone's gonna be

759
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:03,320
Speaker 1: on the Bucks. This is one of those where the

760
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 1: house is gonna really need the Saints. I treat like

761
00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 1: my betting myself a lot different than usual. The competition.

762
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 1: The competition this is I completely understand why you'd want

763
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:13,880
Speaker 1: to take the three and a half of the Buccan

764
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:15,799
Speaker 1: years because this is a good spot for the book,

765
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 1: especially Tom Brady's first game. It's just like this guy

766
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:20,840
Speaker 1: is ready to prove it to everyone this season. And

767
00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:23,279
Speaker 1: this number, I think I got it at I think

768
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:24,799
Speaker 1: the books are four or four and a half At

769
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 1: one point now it sounded three and a half. So

770
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:28,480
Speaker 1: that's what's making me nervous is we're not getting the

771
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:30,640
Speaker 1: best of the number for the books, and now we're

772
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 1: getting to a point where the stands are gonna become

773
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 1: the value. We're not even getting close to the best

774
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:36,719
Speaker 1: of the number. Like it's very possible by Sunday, and

775
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:38,839
Speaker 1: when it's time to lock these picks, if the stint

776
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 1: of minus three, that feels like a no brainer. Right,

777
00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:46,320
Speaker 1: That's how I feel too. Alright, forty Niners hosting the Cardinals.

778
00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 1: The forty Niners are seven point favorites against the Cardinals.

779
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 1: I mean I loved it when it was seven and

780
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:53,800
Speaker 1: a half. I still like it because I got this

781
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:57,080
Speaker 1: game at four and a half for San fran so

782
00:38:57,160 --> 00:38:59,239
Speaker 1: I had them minus four and a half. But it's

783
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 1: tough because run key number. Now we're down to seven,

784
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 1: so that we're risking the push options. But I still

785
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:06,279
Speaker 1: love the Cardinals here that the Forts are coming and

786
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,360
Speaker 1: banged up. They have one healthy cornerback who's Richard Sherman.

787
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:12,879
Speaker 1: He's old. They have one healthy receiver. It's not even

788
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 1: that good. I think it's Pettis, So it's it's it's

789
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:17,560
Speaker 1: one of these spots where I like this early value

790
00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 1: here on the Cardinals. Yeah, it feels like one of

791
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:24,720
Speaker 1: these games where you're automatically getting sort of the extra

792
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:29,000
Speaker 1: padding on the Niners because they went to the Super

793
00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 1: Bowl last year, and the Cardinals are not going to

794
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 1: be a team that the public thinks about is, Oh,

795
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:37,440
Speaker 1: they got Kyler Murray. Oh they got DeAndre Hopkins. Oh,

796
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 1: their defense continues to improve. They're going to be the

797
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:43,759
Speaker 1: team traveling to play the forty Niners. People look at

798
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:46,279
Speaker 1: the matchups and you're thinking yourself, well, the forty nine

799
00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 1: are still one of the best lines in football, and

800
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:50,399
Speaker 1: they're gonna get this Cardinals team who have a couple

801
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:53,239
Speaker 1: of rookies on their offensive line and they struggled as

802
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 1: year at pass blocking. There could be value on the

803
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:57,319
Speaker 1: forty nine, but I just think the number is still

804
00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 1: high enough where we're getting really good value on the

805
00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 1: Cardinals at seven. So we're putting the Cardinals in our

806
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:04,839
Speaker 1: in our batch of five, I'd put them in all right.

807
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 1: They're in Cards plus seven, Rams plus three at home

808
00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:16,799
Speaker 1: Sunday night against the Cowboys, and they're gonna hate me before.

809
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:19,319
Speaker 1: I love the Rams here. It's it's such a good number.

810
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:21,400
Speaker 1: I know all the hypes coming in on the Cowboys

811
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:25,239
Speaker 1: with their offense and everything like that, but this is

812
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:28,719
Speaker 1: just a really good matchup for what the Rams do well.

813
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 1: They're really good at speedy receivers and the Cowboys just

814
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:33,279
Speaker 1: I don't know how they're gonna keep up, and I

815
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 1: know people think they're gonna keep up with their offense.

816
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:37,439
Speaker 1: The last year on the road, the Cowboys were not good.

817
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:39,959
Speaker 1: They really struggled, and they have a new head coach.

818
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:41,960
Speaker 1: I know he's a veteran head coach, but it's his

819
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 1: first game. And the Rams, I really do like them.

820
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:46,920
Speaker 1: Not having a great bounce back here, but I think

821
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:48,719
Speaker 1: they're gonna be better than they were last year and

822
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:51,439
Speaker 1: they'll make the playoffs this season. Listen, I don't hate

823
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 1: that pick at all. I actually feel like it's probably

824
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:58,680
Speaker 1: the right side. This should be pick if anything, probably, like,

825
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:00,959
Speaker 1: how are you power rating this? I got the Rams

826
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 1: minus one? Yeah, that's I mean, honestly, I was gonna

827
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:05,920
Speaker 1: say it, but didn't want to because I don't want

828
00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:07,800
Speaker 1: to be embarrassed. Like, I don't know, I don't know

829
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:09,800
Speaker 1: why the I get why people are down in the

830
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 1: Rams because what we saw last year and everything like that,

831
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:14,359
Speaker 1: But I think they're forgetting how good of that coach

832
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:16,680
Speaker 1: Trau McVeigh is and how good of offensive mind he is.

833
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 1: So I'm excited for the Rams. You know, Hard Knocks,

834
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:22,720
Speaker 1: No one's been watching Hard Knocks this summer that because

835
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:25,239
Speaker 1: it's it's really good and you can't watch it and

836
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:30,240
Speaker 1: not love Sean McVeigh. Like he's all enthusiasm, he loves football.

837
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 1: He seems like a fun guy to hang out with.

838
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:34,920
Speaker 1: Like it's gonna be hard to beat that team. It's

839
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:36,920
Speaker 1: gonna be hard to beat that team on a regular basis.

840
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:41,320
Speaker 1: In a very sort of uncomfortable situation where he's constantly

841
00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:43,520
Speaker 1: confronting the truth, I feel like he's just sort of

842
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:46,480
Speaker 1: recognizing it in McCarthy, Mike McCarthy, the new coach of

843
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:48,640
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, he is not a guy known for confronting

844
00:41:48,640 --> 00:41:50,960
Speaker 1: the truth, you know what I'm saying. Like, And so

845
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:54,239
Speaker 1: I like, I like this pick a lot. Actually, let's

846
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:56,960
Speaker 1: put it in, baby, We're in. We got Jacks plus eight.

847
00:41:57,280 --> 00:42:00,040
Speaker 1: We got Ravens minus eight, we got Cardinals plus seve in.

848
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:03,920
Speaker 1: We got Rams at home plus three. We know it's

849
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 1: coming down to two more games. We got Steelers, Giants,

850
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:09,440
Speaker 1: we got Titans, Broncos, and we've got to choose one

851
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 1: of those games for the five Steelers minus five and

852
00:42:12,200 --> 00:42:16,279
Speaker 1: a half on the road against the Giants, Titans pick

853
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 1: against the Broncos. Let's couple them because we've got to

854
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:20,880
Speaker 1: make a choice from one of these. People already know

855
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:23,279
Speaker 1: how much I'm all in on the Pittsburgh this upcoming year.

856
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:24,920
Speaker 1: I just think there's a lot of value on if

857
00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:27,520
Speaker 1: Roethlisberg and can stay healthy with that team, the pieces

858
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:30,319
Speaker 1: around him in the defense they have. I already bed

859
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 1: this number a decent amount of time because it was

860
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:33,680
Speaker 1: at three. You went to three and a half, and

861
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:35,880
Speaker 1: now it's shut up to six minus and now it's

862
00:42:35,920 --> 00:42:37,480
Speaker 1: on DraftKings on minus five and a half, so it's

863
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:39,319
Speaker 1: been bent down a little. But I grabbed this out

864
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:41,279
Speaker 1: at seven. So I still think we're getting really good

865
00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:44,360
Speaker 1: value on Steelers, and people are gonna go off a

866
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:46,960
Speaker 1: lot of the numbers where Tomlin is not great Week one,

867
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 1: I think he's five and eight against the spread. But

868
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:51,719
Speaker 1: I do love this position here where the Steelers I

869
00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:53,920
Speaker 1: just think they're gonna come out and showcase what they have.

870
00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 1: And the Giants they're just still so weak at a

871
00:42:56,600 --> 00:43:00,120
Speaker 1: lot of positions on defense, and I don't know if

872
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:04,759
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones can overcome with Steelers defense. So do we

873
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:07,920
Speaker 1: not even discuss Titans Broncos at pick? We love the

874
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:10,479
Speaker 1: Steelers even at minus five and a half, a five

875
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:14,800
Speaker 1: and a half road favorite. I do love the Broncos

876
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 1: at home in September. It's like a known thing. You

877
00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:20,040
Speaker 1: just take the Broncos moneyline in the first month of

878
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:22,040
Speaker 1: the season whenever they played at home. But I feel

879
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:24,200
Speaker 1: safe for taking the Steelers here because the Titans they

880
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:26,359
Speaker 1: might be for real. I mean what they did last year,

881
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:29,240
Speaker 1: that might be what they really are to finish the season.

882
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 1: So I would stay away from that Broncos one for

883
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:33,839
Speaker 1: this competition. I would take the Steelers a right. Here's

884
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 1: what I love about this, Simon. We have gone through

885
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:39,440
Speaker 1: every single game. We've gone through every single game. Not

886
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:41,279
Speaker 1: only have we chosen five, which I'm going to go

887
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 1: through in a second. We've also identified hold on, I'm

888
00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:48,080
Speaker 1: going to count this nine games where you feel really

889
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:50,400
Speaker 1: good about it. Nine games. Let may repeat them. They

890
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 1: are the Jets at plus six and a half, the Panthers,

891
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:56,440
Speaker 1: I forgot what they're at, maybe plus three and ad

892
00:43:56,520 --> 00:43:59,840
Speaker 1: and a half, Bengals plus three and a half, the

893
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:02,799
Speaker 1: Seahawks minus one and a half. I think you liked

894
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:06,439
Speaker 1: the Bears at minus at plus three on the road,

895
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:09,279
Speaker 1: you like the Saints if it gets to minus three

896
00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 1: as it continues to go down against the Bucks Cards

897
00:44:12,160 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 1: at plus seven, which we're putting in our mix, the

898
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:16,520
Speaker 1: rams of plus three. The Steelers, you like them all

899
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:19,000
Speaker 1: the way to minus seven, not alone in that one.

900
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:22,879
Speaker 1: My friend, like Chris Raybon, my Action Network colleague, host

901
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:26,600
Speaker 1: of the Action Network podcast, loves the Steelers and has

902
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 1: been pounding the Steelers. I hope we're both right, because

903
00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 1: I'm all I'm all in on them. Like I do

904
00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:34,400
Speaker 1: a lot of futures most years, and this year I've

905
00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 1: probably only done one fourth to the usual amount of

906
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:39,719
Speaker 1: money I usually deal on the futures, but I would

907
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:42,399
Speaker 1: say fifty of it involved something with the Steelers. I'm

908
00:44:42,440 --> 00:44:44,799
Speaker 1: just I'm really banking on a big season here from

909
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:47,320
Speaker 1: Big Ben. All right, these are our final five picks

910
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:51,359
Speaker 1: as of right now. Keep track at Simon Hunter ten,

911
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:54,759
Speaker 1: keep tracking what I write about an Action network dot com.

912
00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:57,800
Speaker 1: We'll be updating it, but as of right now, picks

913
00:44:57,880 --> 00:45:00,960
Speaker 1: lock on Sunday. We're starting here. This is our perfect

914
00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:04,680
Speaker 1: portfolio as of right now to win one million dollars.

915
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 1: Jack's plus eight against the Colts, Ravens Ravens minus eight

916
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:14,520
Speaker 1: against the Baker Mayfield Browns. We got the Cards plus

917
00:45:14,640 --> 00:45:18,839
Speaker 1: seven on the road against the forty niners. We've got

918
00:45:18,920 --> 00:45:22,800
Speaker 1: the Rams plus three at home against the Cowboys, and

919
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:24,520
Speaker 1: we got the Steelers minus five and a half. We

920
00:45:24,600 --> 00:45:27,400
Speaker 1: like him up to minus seven on the road against

921
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:29,919
Speaker 1: the Giants. So we gave your loyal fans a couple

922
00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:33,680
Speaker 1: of primetime games. So I'm pretty excited, dude. I love

923
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:36,080
Speaker 1: the mix here. I love that we're taking some some

924
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:39,400
Speaker 1: road favorites. I love that we're taking some home dogs. Personally,

925
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:41,840
Speaker 1: you're just breaking me out of bad habits right like that.

926
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 1: This is what I loved, Honestly, this is what I

927
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 1: loved about it last year. Like the reason why we

928
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:50,320
Speaker 1: came so close to cashing last year is because I

929
00:45:50,400 --> 00:45:53,480
Speaker 1: would look at a board and immediately eliminate half of

930
00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:55,840
Speaker 1: the games because I didn't like a big favorite, or

931
00:45:55,960 --> 00:45:58,360
Speaker 1: like I didn't like someone in this situation, and I

932
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 1: like was letting the rules dictate my decision instead of

933
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:04,840
Speaker 1: letting them sort of be a guy but not necessarily

934
00:46:04,920 --> 00:46:08,160
Speaker 1: be the final arbiter, whereas now you are the final arbiter,

935
00:46:09,960 --> 00:46:11,600
Speaker 1: right And what like what I what I always tell

936
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:13,680
Speaker 1: you is that what I'm doing here is I'm just

937
00:46:13,719 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 1: trying to take it from a viewpoint of all these

938
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 1: lines were doing. These other people are taking these same lines,

939
00:46:19,200 --> 00:46:21,640
Speaker 1: so early on here we can take these easy games

940
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:23,360
Speaker 1: like a lot of these people are gonna take, Like

941
00:46:23,440 --> 00:46:25,720
Speaker 1: sure a lot of the people might be taking Cleveland.

942
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:27,360
Speaker 1: And that's why we want to go on the raven side,

943
00:46:27,360 --> 00:46:29,520
Speaker 1: is that every week we can get a little advantage

944
00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 1: here and go two to one to these other people.

945
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:34,360
Speaker 1: That's gonna get us closer to the money. And for

946
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:36,080
Speaker 1: the competition we're doing this year, it's the only the

947
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:38,239
Speaker 1: top fifty that get paid out. So that's why we

948
00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:39,920
Speaker 1: really have to take a lot of risk, like each

949
00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 1: week that we're like we're doing now to just get

950
00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:45,719
Speaker 1: get an edge on these people. Early on risk management.

951
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:48,600
Speaker 1: That's what it's all about. Brother Simon Hunter, first week

952
00:46:48,640 --> 00:46:51,760
Speaker 1: on the pod for two thousand twenty. Thanks for joining.

953
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:54,840
Speaker 1: We'll talk to you next week, all right, buddy, alright.

954
00:46:54,880 --> 00:46:57,000
Speaker 1: Coming up next, we are going to announce the winner

955
00:46:57,440 --> 00:46:59,960
Speaker 1: of our Phrase that Pays from last week. Who was

956
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:05,040
Speaker 1: gonna win an Action Network hoodie? Plus don't forget use

957
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:09,160
Speaker 1: the phrase, Simon says in our reviews, go rate and

958
00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:12,120
Speaker 1: review the podcast. Use the phrase, Simon says. The winner

959
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:16,399
Speaker 1: randomly chosen by me and producer Matt Mitchell. The one

960
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:20,080
Speaker 1: who tickles us the most will get a free Action

961
00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:24,640
Speaker 1: Network hoodie. But the winner for this week's Action Network

962
00:47:24,680 --> 00:47:29,840
Speaker 1: could He is Tone Lantern. Tone Lantern is the winner

963
00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 1: of this week's Action Network couldie. And here's what we

964
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 1: loved about his review. Here's what producer Matt Mitchell and

965
00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:40,200
Speaker 1: I loved about his review is that he is a multitasker.

966
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:44,759
Speaker 1: The dynamic duo of Ray Bond with a D and

967
00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:47,800
Speaker 1: Stucky deliver a great podcast. Sorry if I spelled the

968
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:50,960
Speaker 1: names wrong. I wrote this while doing leg lifts. The

969
00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:54,000
Speaker 1: guy is getting smarter and getting stronger at the same time.

970
00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:56,360
Speaker 1: That is why we love Tone Lantern. And that is

971
00:47:56,400 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 1: why he is the proud owner of a new action network,

972
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:04,880
Speaker 1: Pretty Don't skip the podcast Don't skip lu Day. This

973
00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:09,279
Speaker 1: has been the favorites from the Action Network downloaded from iTunes,

974
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:12,640
Speaker 1: from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. I am Chad

975
00:48:12,760 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 1: Nolan for Simon Hunter until next week when you get

976
00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:24,880
Speaker 1: your five favorite fix I love you, h