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Speaker 2: Shall we kick off this week and geopolitical news with
Speaker 2: a series of developments in regard to Israel. As we've mentioned,
Speaker 2: Netanyahu has disbanded dissolved his war cabinet. They also have
Speaker 2: decided to prod pursue some tactical pauses to allow humanitarian
Speaker 2: aid into Gaza. And interesting, after we just saw Anthony
Speaker 2: blink In, the Secretary of State completing his eighth trip
Speaker 2: to the Middle East since October seventh, a.
Speaker 3: New envoy is now in the Middle East, almost Hawkstein.
Speaker 2: He of course is frequently here on Bloomberg TV and
Speaker 2: radio to talk about energy policy.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 5: Interesting that one of the President's closest energy advisors the
Speaker 5: most recent to get the call to basically leverage the
Speaker 5: relationships he has in the region. He may not be
Speaker 5: the Secretary of State, but he seems to be the
Speaker 5: man of the moment. CIA Director Bill Burns has fallen
Speaker 5: into that role more than once. And this really brings
Speaker 5: us more to the idea of avoiding a new front
Speaker 5: to the north in a war with Hesbelah, which is
Speaker 5: something that almost Hochstein is there talking about. And Courtney
Speaker 5: McBride is here talking with us from Bloomberg's National Security team.
Speaker 5: Courtney of course covers the State Department, the administration, geopolitics
Speaker 5: and diplomacy for us. It's great to see you back
Speaker 5: at the table here, Almost Hochstein rising to the surface
Speaker 5: here what can he unlock for this administration?
Speaker 6: Absolutely well, thank you both for having me here today.
Speaker 6: Almost Hochstein is really trying to leverage, as you said,
Speaker 6: those relationships to prevent another full front in the war
Speaker 6: from opening to the north between Israel and Lebanon. And
Speaker 6: really he's able to speak with leaders in both places
Speaker 6: to try to cool tensions and continue the ongoing efforts
Speaker 6: by the administration to keep the war from spreading even
Speaker 6: further into a full scale regional conflagration.
Speaker 2: It's pretty stunning, Courtney that obviously a lot of us
Speaker 2: have spent so much time in recent weeks trying to
Speaker 2: dissect and calculate the odds of some kind of temporary
Speaker 2: ceasefire being reached between Israel and Hamas to essentially stop
Speaker 2: the fighting in Gaza. All the while it seems that
Speaker 2: others were focused pretty intensely on making sure that it
Speaker 2: doesn't cross other borders, like with Lebanon. Is there a
Speaker 2: feeling that it is more at risk of happening now
Speaker 2: in this moment than at any other time since this
Speaker 2: conflict began.
Speaker 6: I don't know that I would say that necessarily, but
Speaker 6: there have been periods where the risk is assessed to
Speaker 6: be greater of an escalation. And you know, as you said,
Speaker 6: the ceasefire conversations are ongoing but perhaps stalled, and in
Speaker 6: the interim you do have this unilateral pause by Israel
Speaker 6: to allow for greater delivery of humanitarians.
Speaker 5: So talk to us about this eight am to seven pm,
Speaker 5: a tactical pause that comes in lieu of a cease fire.
Speaker 5: What has brought Benjamin etna who to this point? And
Speaker 5: could this tactically expand into something bigger.
Speaker 6: There's always the possibility and the hope, certainly from the
Speaker 6: Biden administration, that we do still see a cease fire
Speaker 6: that is a mutually agreed end to hostilities. But this
Speaker 6: is an entirely separate issue. This is not something negotiated
Speaker 6: with Hamas. In fact, Hamas leadership claimed that they were
Speaker 6: left out of the conversation. But this is something that
Speaker 6: the Israeli government has determined that it can do and
Speaker 6: needs to do to allow more aid to flow.
Speaker 5: Are they acknowledging these reports of famine on an official
Speaker 5: level by doing this?
Speaker 6: I don't know that they're they're doing that necessarily, but
Speaker 6: the IDF is assessing that there is you know, there
Speaker 6: is an opportunity to pause their operation which are perhaps
Speaker 6: winding down at that heightened level in the Rafa area
Speaker 6: as well.
Speaker 2: So when we think about the Israeli government and the
Speaker 2: composition of it right now, how significant is it Courtney
Speaker 2: that the war cabinet has been dissolved. Is that more
Speaker 2: symbolic than anything else, or is that actually likely to
Speaker 2: change the trajectory of Israel's conduct in this conflict moving forward.
Speaker 6: I don't know that we can necessarily predict how this
Speaker 6: is going to affect the conduct of the war by
Speaker 6: the Israeli government, but it certainly is a massive shift
Speaker 6: over the last several months. This is the organization, This
Speaker 6: is the group that has has run the war effort,
Speaker 6: and it's no secret that it's been composed of individuals
Speaker 6: who are often politically at odds.
Speaker 5: Getting back to where we started with Anthony Blanken, is
Speaker 5: he planning a ninth trip?
Speaker 7: How's the administration taking this?
Speaker 6: Well, that's not necessarily something that I'm ever told, but
Speaker 6: it's based on the.
Speaker 7: Way you've seen them work though. Is this is something
Speaker 7: that's just going to be a rolling visit.
Speaker 6: It seems like from them, I mean, they tend to
Speaker 6: travel when there's an opportunity to meet with interlocutors who
Speaker 6: may be able to push things forward. So if you know,
Speaker 6: whether it's ceasefire negotiations, hostage releases, if there is something
Speaker 6: that can perhaps be achieved, that that's usually when we're
Speaker 6: on a plane to distant places.
Speaker 2: Well, I wonder if in the month of July the
Speaker 2: need to go to the Middle East perhaps is superseded
Speaker 2: by Nenyahuo's own visit to the US as he scheduled
Speaker 2: to address a joint session of Congress. That presents another
Speaker 2: opportunity to meet.
Speaker 7: That's going to be an interesting moment.
Speaker 5: We've talked to a lot of lawmakers, and to be clear,
Speaker 5: Democratic lawmakers who said, they're either struggling with this or
Speaker 5: they might not attend.
Speaker 7: That speech to Congress.
Speaker 5: That's a big deal though for Benjamin nettnyahho can the
Speaker 5: administration use that as a point of leverage to get
Speaker 5: something else here?
Speaker 6: There's certainly I think, going to seize the opportunity to
Speaker 6: speak with Prime Minister Netanyang when when he is in town.
Speaker 6: But what they attempt to achieve is is anyone's guest?
Speaker 2: All right, Courtney McBride playing the guesting game with us
Speaker 2: here on balance of pounds.
Speaker 3: Just a question of whether she wants to tell us
Speaker 3: it's just hedging courting. We appreciate it.
Speaker 2: On national security for us here at Bloomberg, we want
Speaker 2: to add a new voice to this conversation as well.
Speaker 2: Now in turn to Kelly Grico, she is Stimpson Center
Speaker 2: Senior Fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program. Welcome
Speaker 2: back to Balance of Power, Kelly. Always great to have you.
Speaker 3: If we could.
Speaker 2: First begin with these eleven hour tactical pauses that Israel
Speaker 2: is now putting into place trying to get that humanitarian
Speaker 2: aid in. How do you read into that tactical decision
Speaker 2: and whether it's one that could ultimately expand beyond eleven
Speaker 2: hour windows of time.
Speaker 8: Well, first of all, thank you for having me. Yes,
Speaker 8: So I think you know, there are a couple of
Speaker 8: things here. One is that there is a tempo to operations,
Speaker 8: and Israel has been engaged in some vary intense operations
Speaker 8: and you can't really sustain that momentum long term, and
Speaker 8: so this may be a natural time when it's regrouping,
Speaker 8: and so it allows for this kind of pause anyway,
Speaker 8: So I think that's one. But the second thing I
Speaker 8: think is I can't imagine this sort of converting itself
Speaker 8: into a long term ceasepire because Israel wants to obtain
Speaker 8: hostages and wants to rescue hostages in any kind of
Speaker 8: deal with Hamas, and so giving away this ceasepire for
Speaker 8: free in some sense doesn't really serve Israel's interests.
Speaker 5: Why haven't we seen more raids than Kelly we talked
Speaker 5: about one involving four hostages who were rescued at the
Speaker 5: expense according to Hamas of more than two hundred and
Speaker 5: fifty Palestinians during that raid. Are we going to see
Speaker 5: more activity like that or do they simply not know
Speaker 5: where the hostages are.
Speaker 9: Yeah.
Speaker 8: I mean, I think this has been an intense debate
Speaker 8: about this exact issue, which is one is an intelligence
Speaker 8: challenge of course of knowing where they're located and being
Speaker 8: able to safely do this, meaning that you don't kill
Speaker 8: the hostages and the process.
Speaker 10: So that is certainly a challenge.
Speaker 8: And then the second part is there's been suggestions, it's
Speaker 8: very contentious inside Israel of whether the government is really
Speaker 8: prioritizing the rescue of hostages or if it's more focused
Speaker 8: on really combating Hamas itself, and that of course has
Speaker 8: been a real source of contention within Israeli society well.
Speaker 2: And now it seems there is an open question Kelly
Speaker 2: about not just going to bat against Timas, but Hesbola
Speaker 2: as well. We were just talking about Almos hawks gen
Speaker 2: from the administration in the region now trying to make
Speaker 2: sure that things don't escalate on the northern border with Lebanon.
Speaker 2: How concerned would you be in this moment about another
Speaker 2: front opening up.
Speaker 10: Yes, I mean, I think this is very concerning.
Speaker 8: What we're seeing is this slow moving escalation since October seventh,
Speaker 8: And in a way, because it's so slow moving, you
Speaker 8: can sort of almost fool yourself into thinking it won't happen.
Speaker 8: But what we're seeing is that a series of sort
Speaker 8: of escalating attacks in scale and in terms of intensity
Speaker 8: over especially the last couple of weeks. And so I
Speaker 8: don't think either side necessarily wants to get into a
Speaker 8: full scale war, but we're in a really I think
Speaker 8: dangerous period where neither side may consciously start a war
Speaker 8: but could inadvertently do so. And certainly the rhetoric on
Speaker 8: both sides is very intense, and I think this mission
Speaker 8: Bioxtein is there in particular to try to tell the
Speaker 8: Israelis to not, you know, consider launching some kind of
Speaker 8: limited ground invasion in into Lebanon. You know this, certainly
Speaker 8: if that were to happen, would create a lot of
Speaker 8: problems for the United States, in particular in terms of
Speaker 8: being able to support the Israelis, even in terms of
Speaker 8: weapons and equipment.
Speaker 5: Yeah, well that's my question here to what extent would
Speaker 5: that further complicate US relations with Iran? Would that with
Speaker 5: the US in a more precarious position than it is
Speaker 5: with Hamas.
Speaker 10: Yes, I think that is absolutely right.
Speaker 8: I mean, the relationship between Hamas and Iran is not
Speaker 8: as close as the relationship between Iran has Belah, and
Speaker 8: so I think the possibility of Iran intervening far more
Speaker 8: directly if there was an you know, an intervention between
Speaker 8: Israel into Lebanon is far more likely. I Ran has
Speaker 8: certainly signaled that that that's far more likely to take
Speaker 8: action if there was a war between Israel and and
Speaker 8: has Belah, and so I think, you know, we're trying
Speaker 8: to avoid a regional conflict, and so that danger becomes
Speaker 8: far more heightened if we if we actually see this
Speaker 8: war be taken to Lebanon, and that's something we've been
Speaker 8: trying so actively to avoid, to avoid and the United
Speaker 8: States really the kinds of trade offs would become so
Speaker 8: acute for the United States.
Speaker 10: We're trying to support.
Speaker 8: A war in Ukraine, we have you know, signific concerns
Speaker 8: in the Indo Pacific, and if this becomes a regional conflict,
Speaker 8: trying to do all of this is frankly not possible
Speaker 8: to support all of these allies and partners, and it
Speaker 8: would really create really acute trade offs very quickly.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's an excellent point, Kelly.
Speaker 2: There are so many hot conflicts that the US is
Speaker 2: paying acute attention to right now, including as you just
Speaker 2: mentioned Ukraine, and I would like to ask you about
Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin's trip to North Korea this week, the first
Speaker 2: time he has gone there since the year two thousand.
Speaker 2: Of course, there's been a lot of reporting of suspicions
Speaker 2: that Kim jungam's regime has been sending missiles to Russia
Speaker 2: to allow it to continue its war in Ukraine. How
Speaker 2: do you view this visit in the relationship between these
Speaker 2: two leaders.
Speaker 10: Yes, well, I mean this is a marriage of convenience.
Speaker 8: You know, Putin has turned to Kim Jong un to
Speaker 8: be able to get you know, old stockpiles that the
Speaker 8: North Koreans have of lots of artillery, it seems, some
Speaker 8: short range ballistic missiles, and these are systems that are
Speaker 8: compatible with old Soviet equipment. What this has allowed for
Speaker 8: the Russians is essentially to use these sort of millions
Speaker 8: of our chillier rounds that have been provided to sustain
Speaker 8: them while they're building up their own industrial production. And
Speaker 8: in exchange, you know, this has been a good deal
Speaker 8: for Kim. He's gotten lots of economic aid. It seems
Speaker 8: some technology around space, satellites and including apparently a luxury
Speaker 8: limousine has been sent to Kim as well, and it's certainly,
Speaker 8: you know, it's increased his image on the international stage.
Speaker 5: Fascinating considering what North Korea is providing. Are they just
Speaker 5: filling the gap that China has left, didn't Vladimir Putin
Speaker 5: try to get all of this additionally from Beijing.
Speaker 8: Yes, that's exactly right, and I think it's worth noting
Speaker 8: that the quality of this as in question from what
Speaker 8: we know on the battlefield, so that that certainly provides
Speaker 8: some information for the North Korean and from what we know,
Speaker 8: the Chinese are not particularly happy about this relationship. There
Speaker 8: was some reporting suggesting that the Chinese explicitly asked Putin
Speaker 8: not to go directly from their May visit when Putin
Speaker 8: went to see went to Beijing to go directly to
Speaker 8: North Korea, because they don't want it looking like the
Speaker 8: new axis of evil in the West.
Speaker 10: They would like to create some distance.
Speaker 8: And I don't think it's an accident that Putin is
Speaker 8: visiting North Korea and then he's visiting Vietnam again to
Speaker 8: sort of maybe create a little bit of distance so
Speaker 8: that it doesn't look as though there's some anti Western
Speaker 8: bloc forming. Whether that will be successful as another matter,
Speaker 8: But this creates some headaches for Beijing.
Speaker 3: Of course, Kelly.
Speaker 2: All of this is coming in the aftermath of the
Speaker 2: G seven in Italy last week, in which we saw
Speaker 2: not only the countries agreeing to use Frozian Russian assets
Speaker 2: to provide a fifty billion dollar loan to Ukraine, but
Speaker 2: the signing of this ten year security agreement between the
Speaker 2: US and Ukraine. How significant is that really if it's
Speaker 2: not enforceable treaty.
Speaker 8: Yeah, you said exactly the right thing, which is it's
Speaker 8: not an enforceable treaty.
Speaker 10: So it's largely symbolic in my opinion.
Speaker 8: It's symbolic politics, and that's about it. You know, if
Speaker 8: this was something that was to go to Congress and
Speaker 8: be a treaty, that would be a different matter, but
Speaker 8: any president could come in and overturn it, So symbolic politics.
Speaker 5: Well, we're going into an interesting time, as we've been discussing, Kelly,
Speaker 5: politically speaking here. The next month will walk us up
Speaker 5: to the Republican Convention. We're going to have a number
Speaker 5: of important things that take place in the midst of it,
Speaker 5: including a presidential debate. So what extent are the stories
Speaker 5: we're talking about Israel and Ukraine going to be featured
Speaker 5: in that debate if at all.
Speaker 10: Yeah, that's a great question.
Speaker 8: I would I would think, you know, I always think
Speaker 8: that the economy is the most important thing first, but
Speaker 8: I do think this is actually an election year with
Speaker 8: foreign policy will matter quite a bit because it's taking
Speaker 8: us so many headlines in the news on a regular basis,
Speaker 8: and because the contrast is so stark, and Biden has
Speaker 8: used so much of his presidency to create this contrast,
Speaker 8: really emphasizing his relationships with allies and partners, and he's
Speaker 8: going to want to feature that. And I think Trump
Speaker 8: will want to feature his different approach, which is saying
Speaker 8: that he thinks, you know, that the United States is
Speaker 8: being taken for a ride and is doing too much
Speaker 8: in the world. And there is a real important debate
Speaker 8: that the two candidates can have on these issues.
Speaker 7: I suspect you'll hear something about endless wars.
Speaker 5: Kelly Grico, thank you for being with us as always,
Speaker 5: senior fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy program at
Speaker 5: the Stimson Center. With US on Balance of Power the
Speaker 5: Monday edition, I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines one month
Speaker 5: to the Republican National Convention.
Speaker 7: It's kind of crazy to think about. We have less
Speaker 7: than two weeks to the debate.
Speaker 3: YEP, next Thursday.
Speaker 2: Of course, it's this Thursday that Joe Biden's going to
Speaker 2: make his way to Camp David to start preparations. Unclear
Speaker 2: what kind of preparations Trump and his campaign are doing,
Speaker 2: but we're all just counting down to days until those
Speaker 2: two share a stage in the swing.
Speaker 3: State of Yestida.
Speaker 7: Absolutely.
Speaker 5: In the meantime, the Biden campaign is deploying some money
Speaker 5: a big ad buy. We'll talk about next with our panel.
Speaker 5: Rick and Jeanie are with us on the Monday edition
Speaker 5: of Ballance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: We are counting down the days to June twenty seventh,
Speaker 2: the first presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump,
Speaker 2: set to take place in Atlanta. Next Tuesday, and between
Speaker 2: now and then, voters, especially in swing states, are going
Speaker 2: to be seeing a new ad from President Biden setting
Speaker 2: the stage for the debate that specifically focuses on Donald
Speaker 2: Trump's record in court and his recent thirty four convictions
Speaker 2: on felon accounts of falsifying business records. This is a
Speaker 2: fifty million dollar ad buy and here is a little clip.
Speaker 7: This election is between a convicted criminal who's only out
Speaker 7: for himself and a president who's fighting for your family.
Speaker 3: The ad Joe is titled character Matters.
Speaker 7: Yeah, that's the race there.
Speaker 5: I guess in the eyes of the Biden campaign, it's
Speaker 5: between a convicted criminal out for himself or this president
Speaker 5: who is.
Speaker 7: Fighting for families.
Speaker 5: Fifty million dollars is a good chunk of cash, and
Speaker 5: it's where we start our conversation with our signature panel.
Speaker 5: Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis are with us Bloomberg Politics contributors.
Speaker 5: There have been a lot of questions, Genie about when
Speaker 5: Joe Biden was going to put the money to work.
Speaker 5: This is the most recent example this approach. Character matters
Speaker 5: matters to whom they want it.
Speaker 11: To matter to voters in these swing states and I
Speaker 11: think the key here is the tagline that we keep
Speaker 11: hearing only out for himself. The reality is we heard
Speaker 11: that from Jill Biden, the first lady, at the big
Speaker 11: fundraiser over the weekend, and we've heard it from the
Speaker 11: campaign managers. Donald Trump rather is only out for himself.
Speaker 11: The conviction is making him, you know, even more animated
Speaker 11: and energized to get back in office so he can
Speaker 11: you know, try to pardon himself, which he can't from
Speaker 11: a state trial. But the reality is they want to
Speaker 11: make this case on everything from the convictions to the
Speaker 11: economy that this is all about Trump and his billionaire friends.
Speaker 11: So I think it's something we're going to hear a
Speaker 11: lot in the coming weeks.
Speaker 2: Well, Donald Trump may be a billionaire rick, but we've
Speaker 2: been talking this entire cycle thus far about hads cash
Speaker 2: disadvantage when it comes to the Biden campaign. He had
Speaker 2: a really big month of May. Though we still haven't
Speaker 2: gotten May figures from Biden. We know he raised thirty
Speaker 2: millillion dollars in Hollywood just this weekend with George Clooney
Speaker 2: and Barack Obama beside him. But a fifty million dollar
Speaker 2: ad buy is a pretty big chunk of the war chest.
Speaker 2: Is that a wise financial decision, You know.
Speaker 12: I think it's questionable. Clearly, running ads in the summer
Speaker 12: is less effective than husbanding your resources and running them
Speaker 12: in the fall. It's pretty clear that voters tune in
Speaker 12: in September when trees start to change and people start
Speaker 12: thinking about the election. That being said, I think the
Speaker 12: Biden campaign is rightly concerned about their standing in the polls,
Speaker 12: rightly concerned about the positioning that the candidate is in,
Speaker 12: which is generally been trailing Donald Trump for the last
Speaker 12: six months, and I think they're trying to do something
Speaker 12: about it, especially before all the attention on the debates
Speaker 12: and the conventions and so long story short, Yeah, I
Speaker 12: think he's going to roll the dice. He's going to
Speaker 12: spend fifty million. I think they think money is not
Speaker 12: going to be the issue in closing this campaign, and
Speaker 12: you know, they got to what they can to try
Speaker 12: and get to put the candidate back in a better position,
Speaker 12: which in this case means driving negatives up on Donald Trump.
Speaker 12: This AD's not going to help Joe Biden get more popular,
Speaker 12: but it may help drive Donald Trump down to be
Speaker 12: less popular than Joe Biden.
Speaker 7: Huh.
Speaker 5: And to that end, new numbers today from IPSOS and
Speaker 5: Political Magazine Interesting, Genie. We've seen a bit of research
Speaker 5: since Donald Trump's conviction, but not enough to really understand
Speaker 5: a trend if there is one. In this case, twenty
Speaker 5: one percent of independence said the conviction made them less
Speaker 5: likely to support Donald Trump. So is this campaign just
Speaker 5: about reminding them this happened?
Speaker 10: It is partly about that.
Speaker 11: And yeah, the idea that they're finding in this poll
Speaker 11: that his conviction, despite the big amount of money they've
Speaker 11: raised off of it, could be a liability when people
Speaker 11: go to the polls. Is you know what we're beginning
Speaker 11: to see in some of this polls. I don't think
Speaker 11: this is something we can tank to the bank, so
Speaker 11: to speak, at this point, because we've also seen some
Speaker 11: numbers suggesting Donald Trump is doing better after the conviction.
Speaker 11: But this is a fairly hopeful if you will sign
Speaker 11: for the Biden team that they should keep talking about
Speaker 11: the idea of a convicted felon serving as president being
Speaker 11: something that most voters will not or many voters in
Speaker 11: the independent lane will not. Continence, and the other interesting
Speaker 11: thing I think we should pay attention to is Donald
Speaker 11: Trump losing support amongst sixty five plus. His numbers amongst
Speaker 11: seniors are down. A Republican has not lost sixty five
Speaker 11: plus since before two thousand, So the idea that his
Speaker 11: numbers are down there even a little bit, and in
Speaker 11: swing states, that's a big problem for Donald Trump and
Speaker 11: a big win for Joe Biden. So there have been
Speaker 11: some of these positive signed mildly positive, I would say,
Speaker 11: in the polling numbers we're seeing in the last few weeks.
Speaker 2: Rick, what's your take on these figures? As as mentioned,
Speaker 2: twenty one percent of independence said the conviction is important
Speaker 2: to how they will vote, and it means they are
Speaker 2: less likely to support Trump. Perhaps not surprisingly, forty percent
Speaker 2: of Democrats had that answer, only seven percent of Republicans,
Speaker 2: the total being twenty two percent. But when we're talking
Speaker 2: about such a small portion of the electorate that is
Speaker 2: likely to decide the outcome, Rick, are those numbers enough?
Speaker 12: It depends on which state. I would say, in states
Speaker 12: like the blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin,
Speaker 12: where the numbers have been in a dead heat, you're
Speaker 12: looking for sort of what positives you can find. This
Speaker 12: is a positive, right, This could be twenty five one
Speaker 12: hundred thousand people per state who might be less likely
Speaker 12: to vote. I think part of what this poll also
Speaker 12: total us. The ifs's poll asked you and is this
Speaker 12: a very important item because we know a lot of
Speaker 12: people would be less likely to vote if they knew
Speaker 12: the candidate you were running against was a criminal? But
Speaker 12: does that really make a big difference to them in
Speaker 12: their decision? And a substantial number, almost twenty percent said yes.
Speaker 12: So that is really interesting to me that someone would
Speaker 12: actually decide the outcome of their vote on this conviction.
Speaker 12: So I think in those states it's critically important. In
Speaker 12: states where they've migrated to five ten points difference between
Speaker 12: each other, it's just on the margins at that stage.
Speaker 12: But right now, I don't think you can really rely
Speaker 12: on anybody's polls, but the candidates, and clearly Biden took
Speaker 12: a poll and tested this and said it's worth investing
Speaker 12: fifty million dollars behind a message because they see it
Speaker 12: helping them.
Speaker 5: Rick, I wonder your thoughts on the optics. Over the weekend,
Speaker 5: Donald Trump in Detroit, asking black voters for their support.
Speaker 5: Joe Biden out west in California, sharing a stage with
Speaker 5: the glitterati. He was there with Barack Obama, Jimmy Kimmel
Speaker 5: on stage, Julia Roberts as there. George Clooney is the
Speaker 5: man behind the famous celebrity ad that John McCain ran
Speaker 5: against Barack Obama.
Speaker 7: Do you see an opening here?
Speaker 12: You know, Look, I think they're just chasing the changes
Speaker 12: in the electorate. I mean, we've been talking about Joe
Speaker 12: Biden's electric now being older, wider, more educated, more likely
Speaker 12: to be influenced by Hollywood than Donald Trump's, who is
Speaker 12: more working class, lacks college education, and frankly more multicultural.
Speaker 1: I mean, he is picking up.
Speaker 12: Especially young black males into his coalition. He could wind
Speaker 12: up receiving twenty percent of that vote in the election,
Speaker 12: which would be a really amazing historical level for a
Speaker 12: Republican candidate. And so it has as much to do
Speaker 12: with education as it does with color. It has as
Speaker 12: much to do with local living outside of cities versus
Speaker 12: in them. And so I think this was a perfect weekend.
Speaker 12: It shows you really how the parties have become restructured
Speaker 12: to the point where it's starting to show up in
Speaker 12: the things that they do, in the contrasts they make
Speaker 12: Hollywood versus you know, a black church in the Midwest.
Speaker 2: Well, and with this Hollywood event, as we mentioned, about
Speaker 2: thirty million dollars was raised by the Biden campaign.
Speaker 3: Genie.
Speaker 2: The FEC deadline to put in fundraising data for the
Speaker 2: month of May is later this week. We already heard
Speaker 2: from the Trump campaign several weeks ago one hundred and
Speaker 2: forty one million dollars raised in May, in part and
Speaker 2: large part off the back of his guilty verdict. Does
Speaker 2: it concern you that we haven't heard anything from the
Speaker 2: Biden campaign yet We might not until they actually are
Speaker 2: forced to by that deadline.
Speaker 11: Yeah, I think that we're waiting to see. I mean,
Speaker 11: it would be really tough to match what the Trump
Speaker 11: campaign was able to do. Those were big numbers. That said,
Speaker 11: the eight million over the weekend was historic for on
Speaker 11: the Democratic side, and I think also important about that event,
Speaker 11: putting the celebrities aside, was the message that Joe Biden
Speaker 11: was able to get out, which is a warning about
Speaker 11: the impact on the court if Donald Trump wins, which
Speaker 11: is likely, two more appointees who are going to solidify
Speaker 11: a conservative majority, likely to take away key freedoms and
Speaker 11: rights until your grandkids and great grandkids potentially are adults.
Speaker 11: I mean, this is a really important message that they're underscoring,
Speaker 11: and I think we're going to hear more about that.
Speaker 11: So the celebrities were fascinating, but the message is critical
Speaker 11: and they've got to use this money they're raising to
Speaker 11: get that message out. Democrats don't traditionally vote on the court,
Speaker 11: but given we're at the chippery University of Dobbs, that's
Speaker 11: what we've seen happening in the last twenty four months.
Speaker 2: All Right, Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis are Bloomberg Politics
Speaker 2: contributors kicking things off for it on this Monday.
Speaker 3: Thank you so much.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 1: us Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and Thenroudoo
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Speaker 5: An interesting week for news in the Middle East as
Speaker 5: we turn our attention back to the campaign trail, and
Speaker 5: you can't have one story without the other. To the
Speaker 5: extent that Israel has resonated on the campaign for Joe
Speaker 5: Biden has created a real deficit, We're told by a
Speaker 5: lot of pollsters when it comes specifically to young voters,
Speaker 5: but progressive Democrats of all ages and many people of color.
Speaker 5: And this is a problem for Joe Biden knowing how
Speaker 5: close things are. Just one of many things I wanted
Speaker 5: to talk out with Don Levy. It's always a pleasure
Speaker 5: to spend some time with the director of the Sienna
Speaker 5: College Research Institute. When you hear about the Siena College
Speaker 5: New York Times poll, this is the man behind it, Donn.
Speaker 5: It's great to see you. I hope you had a
Speaker 5: great Father's Day and welcome back to Bloomberg. This conversation
Speaker 5: we're having about Israel right now remains a problem for
Speaker 5: a lot.
Speaker 7: Of young voters.
Speaker 5: Is it still the flash point that it was a
Speaker 5: couple of weeks ago? As people are reminded of their
Speaker 5: short memories.
Speaker 4: It's certainly one of the flashpoints.
Speaker 9: I mean, Biden has a problem with the young vote,
Speaker 9: there's no question about it.
Speaker 4: It's a vote that.
Speaker 9: He carried by about twenty three points in twenty twenty
Speaker 9: and our most recent polling across the nation as well
Speaker 9: as the battleground states, it's really a toss up.
Speaker 4: You know, Biden's up by one point with.
Speaker 9: Young people and certainly when we ask young people, who
Speaker 9: do you sympathize with more in the war between Israel
Speaker 9: and Clamas, and they're they young people by a plurality
Speaker 9: say they sympathize much more with the Palestinians.
Speaker 4: So they're looking for a ceasefire.
Speaker 9: They're looking for Biden to insert himself and to protect
Speaker 9: the lives of the gods and people.
Speaker 5: To what extent is this driving people of color into
Speaker 5: Donald Trump's category? Because there's a big conversation right now
Speaker 5: and it's had every day just about on this program
Speaker 5: about Joe Biden losing his grip, it seems on the
Speaker 5: black vote and the appeal that Donald Trump has. He
Speaker 5: was in a church in Detroit over the weekend and
Speaker 5: dropped the line we've heard a lot of times Donnie
Speaker 5: says he's done more for the black community in this
Speaker 5: country than any president since Abraham Lincoln. Are you actually
Speaker 5: seeing this bear itself out in the numbers.
Speaker 4: Well, that's certainly not a question that we've asked in
Speaker 4: a poll.
Speaker 9: But I think what we're seeing in our polling is
Speaker 9: you've got to again differentiate older Black voters.
Speaker 4: From younger Black voters.
Speaker 9: Older Black voters, most especially older Black women have been
Speaker 9: an extremely reliable group for Democrats in general and Biden specifically,
Speaker 9: and he continues to retain support amongst Black voters over
Speaker 9: the age of fifty, where he's had an erosion. And
Speaker 9: when you see numbers where about twenty percent of the
Speaker 9: Black vote now is telling us pollsters that they're going
Speaker 9: to vote for Trump. That's amongst young Black voters. And
Speaker 9: really the key there is not the situation in the
Speaker 9: Middle East, but it's the economy. Young voters in general
Speaker 9: are extremely unhappy with the state of the economy. They
Speaker 9: don't approve the job that Joe Biden is doing on
Speaker 9: the economy. They think Donald Trump is a better steward
Speaker 9: of the economy. And that's especially true amongst all young
Speaker 9: voters and of young Black voters. That's where Biden's erosion
Speaker 9: really is being generated.
Speaker 5: Interesting, it's good to get specific on these things, certainly
Speaker 5: when you're talking to Don Levy. Fascinating take from Pew Research.
Speaker 5: Don on something you've talked about here more than once.
Speaker 5: The elusive or not so elusive, as it turns out,
Speaker 5: double hater those who say they don't like either major
Speaker 5: party presidential candidate. I wouldn't vote for Trump or Biden.
Speaker 5: It turns out, according to Pew, that it makes up
Speaker 5: a quarter of the electorate, and that's an all time high.
Speaker 5: How do you play with that going into a cycle?
Speaker 4: Here?
Speaker 5: Don I just mentioned we're going to be at the
Speaker 5: first convention one month from today, and in that time
Speaker 5: there will be the big debate, there will be Donald
Speaker 5: Trump sentencing, and probably a number of other things that
Speaker 5: can turn people's attention one way or the other here,
Speaker 5: including the naming of a vice presidential candidate. What do
Speaker 5: the double haters do with all of.
Speaker 9: That, Well, let's turn it on his head for just
Speaker 9: one second, Joe. Let's talk about the love haters for
Speaker 9: a second. Those people who have a favorable view of
Speaker 9: one of the candidates and an unfavorable view of the others.
Speaker 9: As you point out, that's about three quarters of the electorate,
Speaker 9: and their votes are.
Speaker 4: Already almost etched in.
Speaker 9: Granted, amongst the love haters, they are with their candidate
Speaker 9: at the rate of about ninety five to one. Those
Speaker 9: folks are not going to switch. And if the election
Speaker 9: today were held only amongst the love haters, that's seventy
Speaker 9: five percent. If you one candidate favorably and the other unfavorably.
Speaker 9: Trump is up in the battleground states by about four points.
Speaker 9: When you turn now to our friends, the double haters
Speaker 9: who have a negative view of both of them, That
Speaker 9: group of people did tend to vote for Biden in
Speaker 9: the last election.
Speaker 4: Right now, they favor Biden by.
Speaker 9: About ten or eleven points nationally, by about eight points
Speaker 9: in the battleground states. But they're unhappy. They're desperately unhappy
Speaker 9: with the economy. They do tend to be younger, but
Speaker 9: at the same time they are ardently in favor of
Speaker 9: abortion rights, so they are up for grabs now. Some
Speaker 9: of those voters appear likely to leak off to a
Speaker 9: third party candidate. RFK is pulling in some of them.
Speaker 9: Doubt is counting on being able to bring home some
Speaker 9: of those double haters who had voted for him in
Speaker 9: twenty twenty. Right now they don't approve of Joe Biden.
Speaker 9: Biden's approval rating amongst young double haters is nine points
Speaker 9: approved and eighty eight points disapprove. So Biden's got his
Speaker 9: work cut out for him to bring those doubled haters,
Speaker 9: especially those young double haters, back home, And no doubt
Speaker 9: that's why he's bringing out some of the cultural icons
Speaker 9: some politicians who are seen more favorably amongst those double
Speaker 9: haters to try to get those folks to come back
Speaker 9: into the Biden fold.
Speaker 5: We got to think about the weekend we just had it,
Speaker 5: and I wonder how you play the optics in your
Speaker 5: head here if we step away from the numbers for
Speaker 5: just a moment. With Don Levy, we saw the optics
Speaker 5: of President Biden on stage out in California, razzle, dazzle,
Speaker 5: lots of stars. Julia Roberts is there, Jimmy Kimmel's got
Speaker 5: him on stage with Barack Obama, and granted, I'm seeing
Speaker 5: lots of videos of him quote unquote freezing on the stage,
Speaker 5: and it doesn't seem that that's actually what happened. The
Speaker 5: contrast of Donald Trump going to Detroit and asking black
Speaker 5: voters to support him is great. If we come zoom
Speaker 5: the lens out even wider, some of the things that
Speaker 5: Donald Trump said at his rally over the weekend really
Speaker 5: paint a picture here of the contest that we're looking at.
Speaker 5: Do voters care about the optics that I describe, well.
Speaker 9: I think both then to days, in some senses, they
Speaker 9: understand they understand that probably seventy five percent of the
Speaker 9: vote is already baked in, and so they're really competing
Speaker 9: for a.
Speaker 4: Very small slice of the electorate.
Speaker 9: And you slice that even dinner when you realize that
Speaker 9: it's only in six or seven states. So they're trying
Speaker 9: everything they can to sway those double haters, the young voters, to.
Speaker 4: Try to convince older voters.
Speaker 9: Older voters had been more in Trump's camp, and older
Speaker 9: voters now are migrating over to some degree to Biden.
Speaker 9: It's really quite interesting that at this point when you
Speaker 9: talk to older voters.
Speaker 4: They're starting to say that Biden is the more conservative
Speaker 4: candidate and that speaks to them.
Speaker 9: Whereas young voters are looking for radical change, they want
Speaker 9: everything changed in our government.
Speaker 4: Older voters do not.
Speaker 9: And older voters are concerned about social security, medical issues,
Speaker 9: and that right now they're starting to see Biden protecting
Speaker 9: those more so than Trump. So we've seen a bit
Speaker 9: of an inversion, at least in Poeing right now, where
Speaker 9: younger voters are moving away from Biden, but older voters
Speaker 9: are moving towards him right now.
Speaker 5: Fascinating, fascinating. I've only got a minute left. Don you
Speaker 5: mentioned RFK Junior. I just wonder if he finds his
Speaker 5: way onto the debate stage, how much of a threat
Speaker 5: that will be for the front runners here, how disruptive
Speaker 5: that could be to the race.
Speaker 9: Well, it's certainly a threat, and it's a threat to
Speaker 9: both of them, because again you're looking at that thin
Speaker 9: slice of these double haters who you know, and you
Speaker 9: got to remember it. They don't like either of the
Speaker 9: major party candidates. So another opportunity, another option appeals to
Speaker 9: them at this point in time in the campaign. The
Speaker 9: rationale that says, hey, you'd be wasting a vode. You
Speaker 9: know that candidate can't win. You're really, you know, a
Speaker 9: spoiler that doesn't resonate yet. As you said, we're looking
Speaker 9: at the debate, we're looking at the sentencing, we're looking
Speaker 9: at the conventions.
Speaker 4: These double haters are going to have to start making
Speaker 4: up their mind, but many of them probably won't.
Speaker 9: Until we get past Labor Day. So we're going to
Speaker 9: continue to talk about.
Speaker 4: Them until that.
Speaker 5: Don Levy, it's great to have you back, Are there,
Speaker 5: triple haters?
Speaker 7: This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then
Speaker 1: Ronoo with a Bloomberg business app. You can also listen
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 5: Charlie, do you have Alexa in your house? You ask
Speaker 5: Alexa questions? Or does Alexa spy on you from time
Speaker 5: to time?
Speaker 1: I do not, But even better than that, my wife
Speaker 1: has me in the house. She asked questions and I
Speaker 1: don't always know.
Speaker 5: Okay, Well, I bet you do more often than Alexa.
Speaker 7: Sometimes.
Speaker 5: I always love asking or talking about Alexa on the
Speaker 5: air because everyone lets me know when they start talking
Speaker 5: back in their house because the show is on. Hey Alexa, sorry,
Speaker 5: I had to The Washington Post had questions Kayley lines
Speaker 5: for Alexa when it came to politics, and I've never
Speaker 5: talked to Alexa about politics before.
Speaker 7: I don't know if you have no.
Speaker 5: And couldn't figure out who won the twenty twenty election
Speaker 5: by asking Alexa.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and this is not an Alexa unique problem. They
Speaker 2: also asked a number of chatbots, including chatbots built by
Speaker 2: Microsoft and Google. Google's Gemini, when asked who won the
Speaker 2: twenty twenty election, said I'm still learning how to answer
Speaker 2: this question. In the meantime, try Google search, Microsoft's co
Speaker 2: pilots answer looks like I can't respond to this topic.
Speaker 2: Ye explore Bang's search results.
Speaker 7: Do they still kick you back to ban? Since that
Speaker 7: defeat the purpose?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess go figure out for yourself who you think.
Speaker 7: Right.
Speaker 3: For the record, Coviden did win the twenty twenty election.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 2: We are now in the twenty twenty four election cycle,
Speaker 2: and apparently AI still is not able.
Speaker 3: To still will answer what happened the last go around.
Speaker 5: I forget predicting it perhaps is.
Speaker 2: A little bit concerning, so we figured we should bring
Speaker 2: in an AI expert to discuss how it's factoring into
Speaker 2: this election cycle, but also our geopolitical relationships is well.
Speaker 2: Gregory Allen is joining us here in our Washington, d C.
Speaker 2: Studio from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where
Speaker 2: he is the director of the Wadwani Center for AI
Speaker 2: and Advanced Technologies. Greg welcome to Bloomberg. Thank you so
Speaker 2: much for joining us here in studio. We should be
Speaker 2: concerned about this, right we are heading into another election
Speaker 2: and AI still can't tell you accurately who won the
Speaker 2: last one. How is anybody supposed to be relying on
Speaker 2: it for information.
Speaker 13: Well, in this case, you might want to blame people,
Speaker 13: not AI, because what you're describing in this story reflects
Speaker 13: a very conscious choice on the part of these companies
Speaker 13: for how they want to handle this. Now, think about
Speaker 13: the difference between an AI tool and a classical search engine.
Speaker 13: A classical search engine is serving you up results and saying,
Speaker 13: here's what other people have said on this topic relevant
Speaker 13: to the keywords that you just gave me, whereas an
Speaker 13: AI is saying, I Chat GBT or I Alexa give
Speaker 13: you this answer. So there's a lot more of the
Speaker 13: company's brand at stake in answering that question. And some
Speaker 13: companies have made a conscious choice that they just prefer
Speaker 13: to not weigh in on this twenty twenty election issue,
Speaker 13: and they'd rather refer you to their search engine where
Speaker 13: other people can express their opinion.
Speaker 5: But it also doesn't that challenge the whole ideas I've
Speaker 5: been hearing that these search engines they don't even matter anymore,
Speaker 5: and nobody's going to Google. I've got Chat, GPT, I've
Speaker 5: got my copilot, That's.
Speaker 4: All I need.
Speaker 7: And I guess the answer is not so much so.
Speaker 13: There's multiple theories for what the future of search looks
Speaker 13: like and what the future of AI looks like. If
Speaker 13: you're Microsoft, you've been integrating chat GPT results with being
Speaker 13: really since the first weeks of the modern AI revolution,
Speaker 13: since the launch of chat GPT, But it turns out
Speaker 13: that large language model results like those of chat GPT
Speaker 13: are actually much more expensive to serve up than search
Speaker 13: engine results. So whereas returning a result for search engines
Speaker 13: might cost a tiny fraction of a penny, returning results
Speaker 13: for a large language model might cost like nine or
Speaker 13: ten cents, which when you multiply that times hundreds of
Speaker 13: billions of queries, those are really actually meaningful economics that
Speaker 13: the companies have to take into account. So right now,
Speaker 13: the search engine ecosystem and the large language model AI
Speaker 13: assistant ecosystem are existing side by side, with really more
Speaker 13: of the economic value, at least at present, still being
Speaker 13: delivered by classical search engines, which I should mention if
Speaker 13: you open them up, they have a lot of AI,
Speaker 13: it's just older approaches to AI and machine learning rather
Speaker 13: than the more modern large language model approach.
Speaker 2: But when we think specifically about how this is playing
Speaker 2: into the selection cycle. It's not just about asking questions
Speaker 2: and getting answers. This AI can also be generative. It's
Speaker 2: creating images and videos which you aren't automatically able to
Speaker 2: verify with the naked human eye as to whether or
Speaker 2: not it's accurate. How concerned should we be about the
Speaker 2: opportunity for deep fakes or just other misths in disinformation
Speaker 2: to be circulating AI powered on social media platforms.
Speaker 13: This is something that I worried about a lot during
Speaker 13: my time in the Department of Efense. I was previously
Speaker 13: the director of Strategy and Policy at the Joint Artificial
Speaker 13: Intelligence Center, and one of the challenges that the DoD
Speaker 13: was wrestling with was foreign intelligence agencies who were trying
Speaker 13: to put out fake information, sometimes aided by computer generated
Speaker 13: imagery tools, stuff that we know about from Photoshop for
Speaker 13: aga sample. And at the same time, the Internet Research
Speaker 13: Agency of Russia hired hundreds, at one point even more
Speaker 13: than a thousand people to just go write and post
Speaker 13: disinformation online. The problem was those were native Russian speakers
Speaker 13: who made a lot of lousy grammatical mistakes, the type
Speaker 13: that you make when your first language is Russian and
Speaker 13: your English is pretty bad. What AI can do is
Speaker 13: it can solve some of those problems that Russian intelligence
Speaker 13: services had. Rather than needing people who are really good
Speaker 13: at photoshop, it can just actually say, AI, please generate
Speaker 13: me images of the following thing that would be scandalous
Speaker 13: if the US military had actually engaged in it, or
Speaker 13: AI please generate five thousand posts about why Joe Biden
Speaker 13: is a terrible president. That would be suitable for all
Speaker 13: these platforms. So what you're seeing is the cost and
Speaker 13: complexity of executing certain types of disinformation attack might be
Speaker 13: going down. And in fact, we just saw that last
Speaker 13: month with open AI revealing that it had identified multiple
Speaker 13: foreign intelligent services were already using its platform to generate propaglan.
Speaker 5: So it brings us, at least here in Washington, to
Speaker 5: the conversation about regulation or lack thereof so far. And
Speaker 5: it's something that Kaylee and I got into in a
Speaker 5: conversation last week with Steve Balmer, of course, the former
Speaker 5: CEO of Microsoft. He's got something new, cold, or not
Speaker 5: so new at this point, called USA Facts that seeks
Speaker 5: to educate people in a world of misinformation on how
Speaker 5: the government actually works. With that in mind, though, listen
Speaker 5: to his take on the potential impact of regulation.
Speaker 14: I don't think regulation is our savior. Probably the right
Speaker 14: thing is to make sure the legislation is in place
Speaker 14: so that people who have been violated in some way,
Speaker 14: whether it's deep fakes or you know, child harassed through
Speaker 14: an AI, whatever, that they are clearly prosecutable. That I
Speaker 14: think we need legislation.
Speaker 5: What's your take on the approach that Steve Balmer just
Speaker 5: suggested and what we've seen all ready in terms of
Speaker 5: the infant stages of a conversation with Chuck Schumer for
Speaker 5: instance in the Senate.
Speaker 13: Sure so, AI regulation is a really broad topic and
Speaker 13: it gets to deep fakes and really every segment of
Speaker 13: the economy that anybody.
Speaker 7: Is thinking the first thing we need to get an.
Speaker 13: I would say deep fikes is definitely the one that
Speaker 13: has the most momentum in Congress. There are several bills
Speaker 13: that have been introduced by Senator Amy Klobuchar really looking
Speaker 13: at tackling multiple sides of the deep fake issue, both
Speaker 13: the election interference side that we were just talking about
Speaker 13: a moment ago, as well as child or sexual exploitation
Speaker 13: that we just heard Steve Baumer talking about, and in
Speaker 13: terms of the prosecutable part. This really gets to liability
Speaker 13: law versus criminal law, and liability law is typically a
Speaker 13: state by state issue. This gets to who can sue
Speaker 13: whom and under what circumstances. But then you think about
Speaker 13: what is actually illegal. You asked the question who's really
Speaker 13: at fault here? Is it the folks who create the
Speaker 13: tools that are then misused or is it the people
Speaker 13: who are miss using those tools? And you have to
Speaker 13: come up with standards around what might constitute negligence, what
Speaker 13: might constitute willful knowledge, and intent for malicious conduct. Those
Speaker 13: are all really thorny questions. The one that Congress is
Speaker 13: wrestling with right now.
Speaker 7: Well really fascinating.
Speaker 5: I hope this is the start of a conversation with you.
Speaker 7: Come back and talk to us soon, because these stories are.
Speaker 13: This is not slowing down. Congress is continuing to generate play.
Speaker 5: That's why he's director of the wad WANTI Center for
Speaker 5: AI and Advanced Technology is the Center for Strategic and
Speaker 5: International Studies CSIS Gregory Allen.
Speaker 7: Great conversation, Thanks for being.
Speaker 5: With us, Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
Speaker 4: Make sure to.
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Speaker 5: you get your podcasts, and you can find us live
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