1
00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

2
00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,560
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

3
00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:16,959
Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appo carp Play and then Proud Otto

4
00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:20,080
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you

5
00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:23,600
Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

6
00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:28,240
Speaker 2: Shall we kick off this week and geopolitical news with

7
00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:31,000
Speaker 2: a series of developments in regard to Israel. As we've mentioned,

8
00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:34,920
Speaker 2: Netanyahu has disbanded dissolved his war cabinet. They also have

9
00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:38,760
Speaker 2: decided to prod pursue some tactical pauses to allow humanitarian

10
00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:41,960
Speaker 2: aid into Gaza. And interesting, after we just saw Anthony

11
00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:44,800
Speaker 2: blink In, the Secretary of State completing his eighth trip

12
00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,199
Speaker 2: to the Middle East since October seventh, a.

13
00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:50,199
Speaker 3: New envoy is now in the Middle East, almost Hawkstein.

14
00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:52,880
Speaker 2: He of course is frequently here on Bloomberg TV and

15
00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:54,640
Speaker 2: radio to talk about energy policy.

16
00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:54,920
Speaker 4: Yeah.

17
00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:58,320
Speaker 5: Interesting that one of the President's closest energy advisors the

18
00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:03,200
Speaker 5: most recent to get the call to basically leverage the

19
00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:06,120
Speaker 5: relationships he has in the region. He may not be

20
00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:07,880
Speaker 5: the Secretary of State, but he seems to be the

21
00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:10,240
Speaker 5: man of the moment. CIA Director Bill Burns has fallen

22
00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:12,920
Speaker 5: into that role more than once. And this really brings

23
00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:16,080
Speaker 5: us more to the idea of avoiding a new front

24
00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:18,480
Speaker 5: to the north in a war with Hesbelah, which is

25
00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:22,520
Speaker 5: something that almost Hochstein is there talking about. And Courtney

26
00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:27,120
Speaker 5: McBride is here talking with us from Bloomberg's National Security team.

27
00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:31,440
Speaker 5: Courtney of course covers the State Department, the administration, geopolitics

28
00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:33,319
Speaker 5: and diplomacy for us. It's great to see you back

29
00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:36,920
Speaker 5: at the table here, Almost Hochstein rising to the surface

30
00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:39,560
Speaker 5: here what can he unlock for this administration?

31
00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:42,440
Speaker 6: Absolutely well, thank you both for having me here today.

32
00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:47,119
Speaker 6: Almost Hochstein is really trying to leverage, as you said,

33
00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:52,280
Speaker 6: those relationships to prevent another full front in the war

34
00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:56,880
Speaker 6: from opening to the north between Israel and Lebanon. And

35
00:01:57,040 --> 00:02:00,840
Speaker 6: really he's able to speak with leaders in both places

36
00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:06,640
Speaker 6: to try to cool tensions and continue the ongoing efforts

37
00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:09,520
Speaker 6: by the administration to keep the war from spreading even

38
00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:12,120
Speaker 6: further into a full scale regional conflagration.

39
00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:15,280
Speaker 2: It's pretty stunning, Courtney that obviously a lot of us

40
00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:17,519
Speaker 2: have spent so much time in recent weeks trying to

41
00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:20,680
Speaker 2: dissect and calculate the odds of some kind of temporary

42
00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:24,200
Speaker 2: ceasefire being reached between Israel and Hamas to essentially stop

43
00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:26,640
Speaker 2: the fighting in Gaza. All the while it seems that

44
00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:29,280
Speaker 2: others were focused pretty intensely on making sure that it

45
00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,920
Speaker 2: doesn't cross other borders, like with Lebanon. Is there a

46
00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:35,359
Speaker 2: feeling that it is more at risk of happening now

47
00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:37,920
Speaker 2: in this moment than at any other time since this

48
00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:38,760
Speaker 2: conflict began.

49
00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:41,080
Speaker 6: I don't know that I would say that necessarily, but

50
00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:44,600
Speaker 6: there have been periods where the risk is assessed to

51
00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:48,040
Speaker 6: be greater of an escalation. And you know, as you said,

52
00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:52,679
Speaker 6: the ceasefire conversations are ongoing but perhaps stalled, and in

53
00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:56,639
Speaker 6: the interim you do have this unilateral pause by Israel

54
00:02:57,160 --> 00:03:00,440
Speaker 6: to allow for greater delivery of humanitarians.

55
00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:03,280
Speaker 5: So talk to us about this eight am to seven pm,

56
00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:07,320
Speaker 5: a tactical pause that comes in lieu of a cease fire.

57
00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:12,240
Speaker 5: What has brought Benjamin etna who to this point? And

58
00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:16,640
Speaker 5: could this tactically expand into something bigger.

59
00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:20,519
Speaker 6: There's always the possibility and the hope, certainly from the

60
00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:25,040
Speaker 6: Biden administration, that we do still see a cease fire

61
00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:29,520
Speaker 6: that is a mutually agreed end to hostilities. But this

62
00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:32,640
Speaker 6: is an entirely separate issue. This is not something negotiated

63
00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:36,360
Speaker 6: with Hamas. In fact, Hamas leadership claimed that they were

64
00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:39,560
Speaker 6: left out of the conversation. But this is something that

65
00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:42,480
Speaker 6: the Israeli government has determined that it can do and

66
00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:44,720
Speaker 6: needs to do to allow more aid to flow.

67
00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:48,400
Speaker 5: Are they acknowledging these reports of famine on an official

68
00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:49,280
Speaker 5: level by doing this?

69
00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:52,920
Speaker 6: I don't know that they're they're doing that necessarily, but

70
00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:57,120
Speaker 6: the IDF is assessing that there is you know, there

71
00:03:57,160 --> 00:04:01,840
Speaker 6: is an opportunity to pause their operation which are perhaps

72
00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:05,440
Speaker 6: winding down at that heightened level in the Rafa area

73
00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:05,839
Speaker 6: as well.

74
00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:08,680
Speaker 2: So when we think about the Israeli government and the

75
00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,560
Speaker 2: composition of it right now, how significant is it Courtney

76
00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:15,320
Speaker 2: that the war cabinet has been dissolved. Is that more

77
00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:18,599
Speaker 2: symbolic than anything else, or is that actually likely to

78
00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:22,600
Speaker 2: change the trajectory of Israel's conduct in this conflict moving forward.

79
00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:25,760
Speaker 6: I don't know that we can necessarily predict how this

80
00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:28,680
Speaker 6: is going to affect the conduct of the war by

81
00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:32,240
Speaker 6: the Israeli government, but it certainly is a massive shift

82
00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:36,200
Speaker 6: over the last several months. This is the organization, This

83
00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:39,360
Speaker 6: is the group that has has run the war effort,

84
00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:43,120
Speaker 6: and it's no secret that it's been composed of individuals

85
00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:44,799
Speaker 6: who are often politically at odds.

86
00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:49,279
Speaker 5: Getting back to where we started with Anthony Blanken, is

87
00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:51,400
Speaker 5: he planning a ninth trip?

88
00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:53,800
Speaker 7: How's the administration taking this?

89
00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:57,000
Speaker 6: Well, that's not necessarily something that I'm ever told, but

90
00:04:58,640 --> 00:04:59,320
Speaker 6: it's based on the.

91
00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:01,160
Speaker 7: Way you've seen them work though. Is this is something

92
00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:02,719
Speaker 7: that's just going to be a rolling visit.

93
00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:05,880
Speaker 6: It seems like from them, I mean, they tend to

94
00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:12,160
Speaker 6: travel when there's an opportunity to meet with interlocutors who

95
00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:14,520
Speaker 6: may be able to push things forward. So if you know,

96
00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:18,880
Speaker 6: whether it's ceasefire negotiations, hostage releases, if there is something

97
00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:22,920
Speaker 6: that can perhaps be achieved, that that's usually when we're

98
00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:24,960
Speaker 6: on a plane to distant places.

99
00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:27,640
Speaker 2: Well, I wonder if in the month of July the

100
00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:30,120
Speaker 2: need to go to the Middle East perhaps is superseded

101
00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:32,960
Speaker 2: by Nenyahuo's own visit to the US as he scheduled

102
00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:35,960
Speaker 2: to address a joint session of Congress. That presents another

103
00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:36,960
Speaker 2: opportunity to meet.

104
00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:38,280
Speaker 7: That's going to be an interesting moment.

105
00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:40,640
Speaker 5: We've talked to a lot of lawmakers, and to be clear,

106
00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:43,400
Speaker 5: Democratic lawmakers who said, they're either struggling with this or

107
00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:45,000
Speaker 5: they might not attend.

108
00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:47,840
Speaker 7: That speech to Congress.

109
00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:51,200
Speaker 5: That's a big deal though for Benjamin nettnyahho can the

110
00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:55,680
Speaker 5: administration use that as a point of leverage to get

111
00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:56,479
Speaker 5: something else here?

112
00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:01,479
Speaker 6: There's certainly I think, going to seize the opportunity to

113
00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:04,760
Speaker 6: speak with Prime Minister Netanyang when when he is in town.

114
00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:09,400
Speaker 6: But what they attempt to achieve is is anyone's guest?

115
00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:12,760
Speaker 2: All right, Courtney McBride playing the guesting game with us

116
00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:14,159
Speaker 2: here on balance of pounds.

117
00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:17,040
Speaker 3: Just a question of whether she wants to tell us

118
00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:20,160
Speaker 3: it's just hedging courting. We appreciate it.

119
00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:23,160
Speaker 2: On national security for us here at Bloomberg, we want

120
00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:25,039
Speaker 2: to add a new voice to this conversation as well.

121
00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:27,640
Speaker 2: Now in turn to Kelly Grico, she is Stimpson Center

122
00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:31,320
Speaker 2: Senior Fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program. Welcome

123
00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:33,920
Speaker 2: back to Balance of Power, Kelly. Always great to have you.

124
00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:34,520
Speaker 3: If we could.

125
00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:38,640
Speaker 2: First begin with these eleven hour tactical pauses that Israel

126
00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:41,240
Speaker 2: is now putting into place trying to get that humanitarian

127
00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:44,279
Speaker 2: aid in. How do you read into that tactical decision

128
00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:48,000
Speaker 2: and whether it's one that could ultimately expand beyond eleven

129
00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:49,440
Speaker 2: hour windows of time.

130
00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:53,240
Speaker 8: Well, first of all, thank you for having me. Yes,

131
00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:54,840
Speaker 8: So I think you know, there are a couple of

132
00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:58,360
Speaker 8: things here. One is that there is a tempo to operations,

133
00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:01,360
Speaker 8: and Israel has been engaged in some vary intense operations

134
00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:04,919
Speaker 8: and you can't really sustain that momentum long term, and

135
00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:07,599
Speaker 8: so this may be a natural time when it's regrouping,

136
00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:10,480
Speaker 8: and so it allows for this kind of pause anyway,

137
00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:13,320
Speaker 8: So I think that's one. But the second thing I

138
00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:16,880
Speaker 8: think is I can't imagine this sort of converting itself

139
00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:22,840
Speaker 8: into a long term ceasepire because Israel wants to obtain

140
00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:26,360
Speaker 8: hostages and wants to rescue hostages in any kind of

141
00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:29,400
Speaker 8: deal with Hamas, and so giving away this ceasepire for

142
00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:32,840
Speaker 8: free in some sense doesn't really serve Israel's interests.

143
00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:36,880
Speaker 5: Why haven't we seen more raids than Kelly we talked

144
00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:40,920
Speaker 5: about one involving four hostages who were rescued at the

145
00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:44,040
Speaker 5: expense according to Hamas of more than two hundred and

146
00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:48,360
Speaker 5: fifty Palestinians during that raid. Are we going to see

147
00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:50,840
Speaker 5: more activity like that or do they simply not know

148
00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:52,080
Speaker 5: where the hostages are.

149
00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:53,320
Speaker 9: Yeah.

150
00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:55,360
Speaker 8: I mean, I think this has been an intense debate

151
00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:59,640
Speaker 8: about this exact issue, which is one is an intelligence

152
00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:02,880
Speaker 8: challenge of course of knowing where they're located and being

153
00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:05,120
Speaker 8: able to safely do this, meaning that you don't kill

154
00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:06,520
Speaker 8: the hostages and the process.

155
00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:08,120
Speaker 10: So that is certainly a challenge.

156
00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:11,600
Speaker 8: And then the second part is there's been suggestions, it's

157
00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:14,960
Speaker 8: very contentious inside Israel of whether the government is really

158
00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:19,440
Speaker 8: prioritizing the rescue of hostages or if it's more focused

159
00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:22,760
Speaker 8: on really combating Hamas itself, and that of course has

160
00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:28,600
Speaker 8: been a real source of contention within Israeli society well.

161
00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:30,760
Speaker 2: And now it seems there is an open question Kelly

162
00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:34,920
Speaker 2: about not just going to bat against Timas, but Hesbola

163
00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:37,200
Speaker 2: as well. We were just talking about Almos hawks gen

164
00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:40,559
Speaker 2: from the administration in the region now trying to make

165
00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:43,920
Speaker 2: sure that things don't escalate on the northern border with Lebanon.

166
00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:46,640
Speaker 2: How concerned would you be in this moment about another

167
00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:47,719
Speaker 2: front opening up.

168
00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:50,920
Speaker 10: Yes, I mean, I think this is very concerning.

169
00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:55,840
Speaker 8: What we're seeing is this slow moving escalation since October seventh,

170
00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:58,600
Speaker 8: And in a way, because it's so slow moving, you

171
00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:02,000
Speaker 8: can sort of almost fool yourself into thinking it won't happen.

172
00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:06,080
Speaker 8: But what we're seeing is that a series of sort

173
00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:10,480
Speaker 8: of escalating attacks in scale and in terms of intensity

174
00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:14,400
Speaker 8: over especially the last couple of weeks. And so I

175
00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:16,760
Speaker 8: don't think either side necessarily wants to get into a

176
00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:19,199
Speaker 8: full scale war, but we're in a really I think

177
00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:22,680
Speaker 8: dangerous period where neither side may consciously start a war

178
00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:26,640
Speaker 8: but could inadvertently do so. And certainly the rhetoric on

179
00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:29,000
Speaker 8: both sides is very intense, and I think this mission

180
00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:32,280
Speaker 8: Bioxtein is there in particular to try to tell the

181
00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:35,520
Speaker 8: Israelis to not, you know, consider launching some kind of

182
00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:40,320
Speaker 8: limited ground invasion in into Lebanon. You know this, certainly

183
00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:42,280
Speaker 8: if that were to happen, would create a lot of

184
00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:45,520
Speaker 8: problems for the United States, in particular in terms of

185
00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:48,079
Speaker 8: being able to support the Israelis, even in terms of

186
00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:50,280
Speaker 8: weapons and equipment.

187
00:09:50,640 --> 00:09:55,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, well that's my question here to what extent would

188
00:09:55,679 --> 00:10:00,120
Speaker 5: that further complicate US relations with Iran? Would that with

189
00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:02,760
Speaker 5: the US in a more precarious position than it is

190
00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:04,440
Speaker 5: with Hamas.

191
00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:06,959
Speaker 10: Yes, I think that is absolutely right.

192
00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:12,000
Speaker 8: I mean, the relationship between Hamas and Iran is not

193
00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:16,720
Speaker 8: as close as the relationship between Iran has Belah, and

194
00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:20,480
Speaker 8: so I think the possibility of Iran intervening far more

195
00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:25,600
Speaker 8: directly if there was an you know, an intervention between

196
00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:30,160
Speaker 8: Israel into Lebanon is far more likely. I Ran has

197
00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:32,880
Speaker 8: certainly signaled that that that's far more likely to take

198
00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:36,800
Speaker 8: action if there was a war between Israel and and

199
00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:39,600
Speaker 8: has Belah, and so I think, you know, we're trying

200
00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:42,880
Speaker 8: to avoid a regional conflict, and so that danger becomes

201
00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:46,160
Speaker 8: far more heightened if we if we actually see this

202
00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:48,440
Speaker 8: war be taken to Lebanon, and that's something we've been

203
00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:52,199
Speaker 8: trying so actively to avoid, to avoid and the United

204
00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:54,680
Speaker 8: States really the kinds of trade offs would become so

205
00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:55,800
Speaker 8: acute for the United States.

206
00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:57,560
Speaker 10: We're trying to support.

207
00:10:57,120 --> 00:11:00,960
Speaker 8: A war in Ukraine, we have you know, signific concerns

208
00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:05,679
Speaker 8: in the Indo Pacific, and if this becomes a regional conflict,

209
00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:09,319
Speaker 8: trying to do all of this is frankly not possible

210
00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:12,640
Speaker 8: to support all of these allies and partners, and it

211
00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:15,480
Speaker 8: would really create really acute trade offs very quickly.

212
00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:17,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's an excellent point, Kelly.

213
00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:20,440
Speaker 2: There are so many hot conflicts that the US is

214
00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:23,080
Speaker 2: paying acute attention to right now, including as you just

215
00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:25,720
Speaker 2: mentioned Ukraine, and I would like to ask you about

216
00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:29,120
Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin's trip to North Korea this week, the first

217
00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:31,400
Speaker 2: time he has gone there since the year two thousand.

218
00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:34,199
Speaker 2: Of course, there's been a lot of reporting of suspicions

219
00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:36,960
Speaker 2: that Kim jungam's regime has been sending missiles to Russia

220
00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:40,280
Speaker 2: to allow it to continue its war in Ukraine. How

221
00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:44,360
Speaker 2: do you view this visit in the relationship between these

222
00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:45,040
Speaker 2: two leaders.

223
00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:48,600
Speaker 10: Yes, well, I mean this is a marriage of convenience.

224
00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:54,040
Speaker 8: You know, Putin has turned to Kim Jong un to

225
00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:57,320
Speaker 8: be able to get you know, old stockpiles that the

226
00:11:57,320 --> 00:12:00,880
Speaker 8: North Koreans have of lots of artillery, it seems, some

227
00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:04,400
Speaker 8: short range ballistic missiles, and these are systems that are

228
00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:08,240
Speaker 8: compatible with old Soviet equipment. What this has allowed for

229
00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:12,280
Speaker 8: the Russians is essentially to use these sort of millions

230
00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:14,760
Speaker 8: of our chillier rounds that have been provided to sustain

231
00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:18,520
Speaker 8: them while they're building up their own industrial production. And

232
00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:20,560
Speaker 8: in exchange, you know, this has been a good deal

233
00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:23,640
Speaker 8: for Kim. He's gotten lots of economic aid. It seems

234
00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:29,000
Speaker 8: some technology around space, satellites and including apparently a luxury

235
00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:32,959
Speaker 8: limousine has been sent to Kim as well, and it's certainly,

236
00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:36,360
Speaker 8: you know, it's increased his image on the international stage.

237
00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:42,920
Speaker 5: Fascinating considering what North Korea is providing. Are they just

238
00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:46,760
Speaker 5: filling the gap that China has left, didn't Vladimir Putin

239
00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:48,760
Speaker 5: try to get all of this additionally from Beijing.

240
00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:52,439
Speaker 8: Yes, that's exactly right, and I think it's worth noting

241
00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:55,560
Speaker 8: that the quality of this as in question from what

242
00:12:55,600 --> 00:12:58,240
Speaker 8: we know on the battlefield, so that that certainly provides

243
00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:01,160
Speaker 8: some information for the North Korean and from what we know,

244
00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:04,440
Speaker 8: the Chinese are not particularly happy about this relationship. There

245
00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:08,319
Speaker 8: was some reporting suggesting that the Chinese explicitly asked Putin

246
00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:11,800
Speaker 8: not to go directly from their May visit when Putin

247
00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,880
Speaker 8: went to see went to Beijing to go directly to

248
00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:17,320
Speaker 8: North Korea, because they don't want it looking like the

249
00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:19,920
Speaker 8: new axis of evil in the West.

250
00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:22,080
Speaker 10: They would like to create some distance.

251
00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:24,400
Speaker 8: And I don't think it's an accident that Putin is

252
00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:28,080
Speaker 8: visiting North Korea and then he's visiting Vietnam again to

253
00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:31,160
Speaker 8: sort of maybe create a little bit of distance so

254
00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:33,600
Speaker 8: that it doesn't look as though there's some anti Western

255
00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:37,559
Speaker 8: bloc forming. Whether that will be successful as another matter,

256
00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:40,520
Speaker 8: But this creates some headaches for Beijing.

257
00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:42,520
Speaker 3: Of course, Kelly.

258
00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:44,400
Speaker 2: All of this is coming in the aftermath of the

259
00:13:44,440 --> 00:13:46,680
Speaker 2: G seven in Italy last week, in which we saw

260
00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:50,360
Speaker 2: not only the countries agreeing to use Frozian Russian assets

261
00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:52,640
Speaker 2: to provide a fifty billion dollar loan to Ukraine, but

262
00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:55,920
Speaker 2: the signing of this ten year security agreement between the

263
00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:59,719
Speaker 2: US and Ukraine. How significant is that really if it's

264
00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:01,560
Speaker 2: not enforceable treaty.

265
00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,160
Speaker 8: Yeah, you said exactly the right thing, which is it's

266
00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:06,320
Speaker 8: not an enforceable treaty.

267
00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:08,800
Speaker 10: So it's largely symbolic in my opinion.

268
00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:13,920
Speaker 8: It's symbolic politics, and that's about it. You know, if

269
00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:16,120
Speaker 8: this was something that was to go to Congress and

270
00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:18,720
Speaker 8: be a treaty, that would be a different matter, but

271
00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:24,200
Speaker 8: any president could come in and overturn it, So symbolic politics.

272
00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:30,560
Speaker 5: Well, we're going into an interesting time, as we've been discussing, Kelly,

273
00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:33,680
Speaker 5: politically speaking here. The next month will walk us up

274
00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:36,000
Speaker 5: to the Republican Convention. We're going to have a number

275
00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:38,480
Speaker 5: of important things that take place in the midst of it,

276
00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:41,800
Speaker 5: including a presidential debate. So what extent are the stories

277
00:14:41,800 --> 00:14:45,480
Speaker 5: we're talking about Israel and Ukraine going to be featured

278
00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:46,640
Speaker 5: in that debate if at all.

279
00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:50,040
Speaker 10: Yeah, that's a great question.

280
00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:53,640
Speaker 8: I would I would think, you know, I always think

281
00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:56,040
Speaker 8: that the economy is the most important thing first, but

282
00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:58,080
Speaker 8: I do think this is actually an election year with

283
00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:01,440
Speaker 8: foreign policy will matter quite a bit because it's taking

284
00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:04,680
Speaker 8: us so many headlines in the news on a regular basis,

285
00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:08,520
Speaker 8: and because the contrast is so stark, and Biden has

286
00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:11,400
Speaker 8: used so much of his presidency to create this contrast,

287
00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:15,320
Speaker 8: really emphasizing his relationships with allies and partners, and he's

288
00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:17,520
Speaker 8: going to want to feature that. And I think Trump

289
00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:20,320
Speaker 8: will want to feature his different approach, which is saying

290
00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:23,080
Speaker 8: that he thinks, you know, that the United States is

291
00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:25,520
Speaker 8: being taken for a ride and is doing too much

292
00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:28,280
Speaker 8: in the world. And there is a real important debate

293
00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:32,040
Speaker 8: that the two candidates can have on these issues.

294
00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:35,560
Speaker 7: I suspect you'll hear something about endless wars.

295
00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:38,440
Speaker 5: Kelly Grico, thank you for being with us as always,

296
00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:42,160
Speaker 5: senior fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy program at

297
00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:44,920
Speaker 5: the Stimson Center. With US on Balance of Power the

298
00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:48,480
Speaker 5: Monday edition, I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines one month

299
00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:51,040
Speaker 5: to the Republican National Convention.

300
00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:52,680
Speaker 7: It's kind of crazy to think about. We have less

301
00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:54,000
Speaker 7: than two weeks to the debate.

302
00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:55,080
Speaker 3: YEP, next Thursday.

303
00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:57,280
Speaker 2: Of course, it's this Thursday that Joe Biden's going to

304
00:15:57,320 --> 00:16:00,640
Speaker 2: make his way to Camp David to start preparations. Unclear

305
00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:04,520
Speaker 2: what kind of preparations Trump and his campaign are doing,

306
00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:06,520
Speaker 2: but we're all just counting down to days until those

307
00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:08,239
Speaker 2: two share a stage in the swing.

308
00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:09,120
Speaker 3: State of Yestida.

309
00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:09,920
Speaker 7: Absolutely.

310
00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:12,960
Speaker 5: In the meantime, the Biden campaign is deploying some money

311
00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:15,680
Speaker 5: a big ad buy. We'll talk about next with our panel.

312
00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:18,120
Speaker 5: Rick and Jeanie are with us on the Monday edition

313
00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:23,240
Speaker 5: of Ballance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

314
00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:27,280
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

315
00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:30,440
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

316
00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:33,440
Speaker 1: Rounoo with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

317
00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:36,680
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

318
00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:41,120
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

319
00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:44,800
Speaker 2: We are counting down the days to June twenty seventh,

320
00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:47,880
Speaker 2: the first presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump,

321
00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:51,480
Speaker 2: set to take place in Atlanta. Next Tuesday, and between

322
00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:55,040
Speaker 2: now and then, voters, especially in swing states, are going

323
00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:57,480
Speaker 2: to be seeing a new ad from President Biden setting

324
00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:00,880
Speaker 2: the stage for the debate that specifically focuses on Donald

325
00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:04,960
Speaker 2: Trump's record in court and his recent thirty four convictions

326
00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:08,200
Speaker 2: on felon accounts of falsifying business records. This is a

327
00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:12,320
Speaker 2: fifty million dollar ad buy and here is a little clip.

328
00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:16,880
Speaker 7: This election is between a convicted criminal who's only out

329
00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:20,920
Speaker 7: for himself and a president who's fighting for your family.

330
00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:25,880
Speaker 3: The ad Joe is titled character Matters.

331
00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:27,800
Speaker 7: Yeah, that's the race there.

332
00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:30,400
Speaker 5: I guess in the eyes of the Biden campaign, it's

333
00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:35,440
Speaker 5: between a convicted criminal out for himself or this president

334
00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:36,000
Speaker 5: who is.

335
00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:37,200
Speaker 7: Fighting for families.

336
00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:40,399
Speaker 5: Fifty million dollars is a good chunk of cash, and

337
00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:43,920
Speaker 5: it's where we start our conversation with our signature panel.

338
00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:47,679
Speaker 5: Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis are with us Bloomberg Politics contributors.

339
00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:49,720
Speaker 5: There have been a lot of questions, Genie about when

340
00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:51,960
Speaker 5: Joe Biden was going to put the money to work.

341
00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:56,760
Speaker 5: This is the most recent example this approach. Character matters

342
00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:01,520
Speaker 5: matters to whom they want it.

343
00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:04,119
Speaker 11: To matter to voters in these swing states and I

344
00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:07,000
Speaker 11: think the key here is the tagline that we keep

345
00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:11,320
Speaker 11: hearing only out for himself. The reality is we heard

346
00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:13,960
Speaker 11: that from Jill Biden, the first lady, at the big

347
00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:17,119
Speaker 11: fundraiser over the weekend, and we've heard it from the

348
00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:21,760
Speaker 11: campaign managers. Donald Trump rather is only out for himself.

349
00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:25,920
Speaker 11: The conviction is making him, you know, even more animated

350
00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,520
Speaker 11: and energized to get back in office so he can

351
00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:31,400
Speaker 11: you know, try to pardon himself, which he can't from

352
00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:34,800
Speaker 11: a state trial. But the reality is they want to

353
00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:37,480
Speaker 11: make this case on everything from the convictions to the

354
00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:41,119
Speaker 11: economy that this is all about Trump and his billionaire friends.

355
00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:42,760
Speaker 11: So I think it's something we're going to hear a

356
00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:44,000
Speaker 11: lot in the coming weeks.

357
00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:48,600
Speaker 2: Well, Donald Trump may be a billionaire rick, but we've

358
00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:51,480
Speaker 2: been talking this entire cycle thus far about hads cash

359
00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:54,760
Speaker 2: disadvantage when it comes to the Biden campaign. He had

360
00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:57,160
Speaker 2: a really big month of May. Though we still haven't

361
00:18:57,160 --> 00:18:59,760
Speaker 2: gotten May figures from Biden. We know he raised thirty

362
00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:03,399
Speaker 2: millillion dollars in Hollywood just this weekend with George Clooney

363
00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:06,040
Speaker 2: and Barack Obama beside him. But a fifty million dollar

364
00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:09,280
Speaker 2: ad buy is a pretty big chunk of the war chest.

365
00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:12,640
Speaker 2: Is that a wise financial decision, You know.

366
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:16,479
Speaker 12: I think it's questionable. Clearly, running ads in the summer

367
00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:20,399
Speaker 12: is less effective than husbanding your resources and running them

368
00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:24,360
Speaker 12: in the fall. It's pretty clear that voters tune in

369
00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:27,880
Speaker 12: in September when trees start to change and people start

370
00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:30,679
Speaker 12: thinking about the election. That being said, I think the

371
00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:34,240
Speaker 12: Biden campaign is rightly concerned about their standing in the polls,

372
00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:38,200
Speaker 12: rightly concerned about the positioning that the candidate is in,

373
00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:41,760
Speaker 12: which is generally been trailing Donald Trump for the last

374
00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:44,520
Speaker 12: six months, and I think they're trying to do something

375
00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:47,399
Speaker 12: about it, especially before all the attention on the debates

376
00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:51,480
Speaker 12: and the conventions and so long story short, Yeah, I

377
00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:53,359
Speaker 12: think he's going to roll the dice. He's going to

378
00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:55,359
Speaker 12: spend fifty million. I think they think money is not

379
00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,480
Speaker 12: going to be the issue in closing this campaign, and

380
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:00,960
Speaker 12: you know, they got to what they can to try

381
00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:04,200
Speaker 12: and get to put the candidate back in a better position,

382
00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:10,080
Speaker 12: which in this case means driving negatives up on Donald Trump.

383
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:12,720
Speaker 12: This AD's not going to help Joe Biden get more popular,

384
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:15,760
Speaker 12: but it may help drive Donald Trump down to be

385
00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:17,560
Speaker 12: less popular than Joe Biden.

386
00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:18,720
Speaker 7: Huh.

387
00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 5: And to that end, new numbers today from IPSOS and

388
00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:25,800
Speaker 5: Political Magazine Interesting, Genie. We've seen a bit of research

389
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:30,080
Speaker 5: since Donald Trump's conviction, but not enough to really understand

390
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 5: a trend if there is one. In this case, twenty

391
00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:36,560
Speaker 5: one percent of independence said the conviction made them less

392
00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:40,800
Speaker 5: likely to support Donald Trump. So is this campaign just

393
00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:43,320
Speaker 5: about reminding them this happened?

394
00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:46,360
Speaker 10: It is partly about that.

395
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:49,240
Speaker 11: And yeah, the idea that they're finding in this poll

396
00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:53,080
Speaker 11: that his conviction, despite the big amount of money they've

397
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:56,280
Speaker 11: raised off of it, could be a liability when people

398
00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:59,440
Speaker 11: go to the polls. Is you know what we're beginning

399
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:01,600
Speaker 11: to see in some of this polls. I don't think

400
00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 11: this is something we can tank to the bank, so

401
00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:07,119
Speaker 11: to speak, at this point, because we've also seen some

402
00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:10,520
Speaker 11: numbers suggesting Donald Trump is doing better after the conviction.

403
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:14,200
Speaker 11: But this is a fairly hopeful if you will sign

404
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,240
Speaker 11: for the Biden team that they should keep talking about

405
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 11: the idea of a convicted felon serving as president being

406
00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:24,280
Speaker 11: something that most voters will not or many voters in

407
00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:29,159
Speaker 11: the independent lane will not. Continence, and the other interesting

408
00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:32,280
Speaker 11: thing I think we should pay attention to is Donald

409
00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:37,240
Speaker 11: Trump losing support amongst sixty five plus. His numbers amongst

410
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:41,680
Speaker 11: seniors are down. A Republican has not lost sixty five

411
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:45,560
Speaker 11: plus since before two thousand, So the idea that his

412
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,359
Speaker 11: numbers are down there even a little bit, and in

413
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,439
Speaker 11: swing states, that's a big problem for Donald Trump and

414
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:54,160
Speaker 11: a big win for Joe Biden. So there have been

415
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 11: some of these positive signed mildly positive, I would say,

416
00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 11: in the polling numbers we're seeing in the last few weeks.

417
00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,959
Speaker 2: Rick, what's your take on these figures? As as mentioned,

418
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:08,120
Speaker 2: twenty one percent of independence said the conviction is important

419
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:09,960
Speaker 2: to how they will vote, and it means they are

420
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 2: less likely to support Trump. Perhaps not surprisingly, forty percent

421
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 2: of Democrats had that answer, only seven percent of Republicans,

422
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 2: the total being twenty two percent. But when we're talking

423
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 2: about such a small portion of the electorate that is

424
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:25,879
Speaker 2: likely to decide the outcome, Rick, are those numbers enough?

425
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 12: It depends on which state. I would say, in states

426
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 12: like the blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin,

427
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:38,440
Speaker 12: where the numbers have been in a dead heat, you're

428
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 12: looking for sort of what positives you can find. This

429
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 12: is a positive, right, This could be twenty five one

430
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:48,080
Speaker 12: hundred thousand people per state who might be less likely

431
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 12: to vote. I think part of what this poll also

432
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,240
Speaker 12: total us. The ifs's poll asked you and is this

433
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 12: a very important item because we know a lot of

434
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,399
Speaker 12: people would be less likely to vote if they knew

435
00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:00,439
Speaker 12: the candidate you were running against was a criminal? But

436
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,200
Speaker 12: does that really make a big difference to them in

437
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 12: their decision? And a substantial number, almost twenty percent said yes.

438
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:11,680
Speaker 12: So that is really interesting to me that someone would

439
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:17,920
Speaker 12: actually decide the outcome of their vote on this conviction.

440
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,359
Speaker 12: So I think in those states it's critically important. In

441
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:26,200
Speaker 12: states where they've migrated to five ten points difference between

442
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 12: each other, it's just on the margins at that stage.

443
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 12: But right now, I don't think you can really rely

444
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 12: on anybody's polls, but the candidates, and clearly Biden took

445
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 12: a poll and tested this and said it's worth investing

446
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:42,679
Speaker 12: fifty million dollars behind a message because they see it

447
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 12: helping them.

448
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 5: Rick, I wonder your thoughts on the optics. Over the weekend,

449
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:53,879
Speaker 5: Donald Trump in Detroit, asking black voters for their support.

450
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 5: Joe Biden out west in California, sharing a stage with

451
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 5: the glitterati. He was there with Barack Obama, Jimmy Kimmel

452
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 5: on stage, Julia Roberts as there. George Clooney is the

453
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:08,200
Speaker 5: man behind the famous celebrity ad that John McCain ran

454
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 5: against Barack Obama.

455
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:11,000
Speaker 7: Do you see an opening here?

456
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:16,680
Speaker 12: You know, Look, I think they're just chasing the changes

457
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:19,640
Speaker 12: in the electorate. I mean, we've been talking about Joe

458
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:25,280
Speaker 12: Biden's electric now being older, wider, more educated, more likely

459
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:31,159
Speaker 12: to be influenced by Hollywood than Donald Trump's, who is

460
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:36,879
Speaker 12: more working class, lacks college education, and frankly more multicultural.

461
00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 1: I mean, he is picking up.

462
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 12: Especially young black males into his coalition. He could wind

463
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:47,679
Speaker 12: up receiving twenty percent of that vote in the election,

464
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:52,680
Speaker 12: which would be a really amazing historical level for a

465
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,679
Speaker 12: Republican candidate. And so it has as much to do

466
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:58,880
Speaker 12: with education as it does with color. It has as

467
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 12: much to do with local living outside of cities versus

468
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 12: in them. And so I think this was a perfect weekend.

469
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 12: It shows you really how the parties have become restructured

470
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 12: to the point where it's starting to show up in

471
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:13,640
Speaker 12: the things that they do, in the contrasts they make

472
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 12: Hollywood versus you know, a black church in the Midwest.

473
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,359
Speaker 2: Well, and with this Hollywood event, as we mentioned, about

474
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 2: thirty million dollars was raised by the Biden campaign.

475
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:28,359
Speaker 3: Genie.

476
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 2: The FEC deadline to put in fundraising data for the

477
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 2: month of May is later this week. We already heard

478
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:38,359
Speaker 2: from the Trump campaign several weeks ago one hundred and

479
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 2: forty one million dollars raised in May, in part and

480
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,920
Speaker 2: large part off the back of his guilty verdict. Does

481
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 2: it concern you that we haven't heard anything from the

482
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,880
Speaker 2: Biden campaign yet We might not until they actually are

483
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:50,200
Speaker 2: forced to by that deadline.

484
00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 11: Yeah, I think that we're waiting to see. I mean,

485
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:56,919
Speaker 11: it would be really tough to match what the Trump

486
00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 11: campaign was able to do. Those were big numbers. That said,

487
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 11: the eight million over the weekend was historic for on

488
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:07,760
Speaker 11: the Democratic side, and I think also important about that event,

489
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 11: putting the celebrities aside, was the message that Joe Biden

490
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:15,480
Speaker 11: was able to get out, which is a warning about

491
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:18,640
Speaker 11: the impact on the court if Donald Trump wins, which

492
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:22,360
Speaker 11: is likely, two more appointees who are going to solidify

493
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 11: a conservative majority, likely to take away key freedoms and

494
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:32,359
Speaker 11: rights until your grandkids and great grandkids potentially are adults.

495
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 11: I mean, this is a really important message that they're underscoring,

496
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:38,479
Speaker 11: and I think we're going to hear more about that.

497
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 11: So the celebrities were fascinating, but the message is critical

498
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 11: and they've got to use this money they're raising to

499
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:48,879
Speaker 11: get that message out. Democrats don't traditionally vote on the court,

500
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 11: but given we're at the chippery University of Dobbs, that's

501
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 11: what we've seen happening in the last twenty four months.

502
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 2: All Right, Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis are Bloomberg Politics

503
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 2: contributors kicking things off for it on this Monday.

504
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:02,400
Speaker 3: Thank you so much.

505
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

506
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:13,400
Speaker 1: us Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and Thenroudoo

507
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,560
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you

508
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 1: get your podcasts. Watch us Live on YouTube.

509
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 5: An interesting week for news in the Middle East as

510
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 5: we turn our attention back to the campaign trail, and

511
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 5: you can't have one story without the other. To the

512
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 5: extent that Israel has resonated on the campaign for Joe

513
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 5: Biden has created a real deficit, We're told by a

514
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:39,160
Speaker 5: lot of pollsters when it comes specifically to young voters,

515
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:44,399
Speaker 5: but progressive Democrats of all ages and many people of color.

516
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 5: And this is a problem for Joe Biden knowing how

517
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 5: close things are. Just one of many things I wanted

518
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:52,679
Speaker 5: to talk out with Don Levy. It's always a pleasure

519
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 5: to spend some time with the director of the Sienna

520
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:58,399
Speaker 5: College Research Institute. When you hear about the Siena College

521
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 5: New York Times poll, this is the man behind it, Donn.

522
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:02,680
Speaker 5: It's great to see you. I hope you had a

523
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 5: great Father's Day and welcome back to Bloomberg. This conversation

524
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:09,159
Speaker 5: we're having about Israel right now remains a problem for

525
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:09,639
Speaker 5: a lot.

526
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 7: Of young voters.

527
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:12,879
Speaker 5: Is it still the flash point that it was a

528
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 5: couple of weeks ago? As people are reminded of their

529
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 5: short memories.

530
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 4: It's certainly one of the flashpoints.

531
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:23,640
Speaker 9: I mean, Biden has a problem with the young vote,

532
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:25,200
Speaker 9: there's no question about it.

533
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 4: It's a vote that.

534
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:29,639
Speaker 9: He carried by about twenty three points in twenty twenty

535
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,919
Speaker 9: and our most recent polling across the nation as well

536
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 9: as the battleground states, it's really a toss up.

537
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 4: You know, Biden's up by one point with.

538
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 9: Young people and certainly when we ask young people, who

539
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:46,720
Speaker 9: do you sympathize with more in the war between Israel

540
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 9: and Clamas, and they're they young people by a plurality

541
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,960
Speaker 9: say they sympathize much more with the Palestinians.

542
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 4: So they're looking for a ceasefire.

543
00:28:56,560 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 9: They're looking for Biden to insert himself and to protect

544
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 9: the lives of the gods and people.

545
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 5: To what extent is this driving people of color into

546
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 5: Donald Trump's category? Because there's a big conversation right now

547
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 5: and it's had every day just about on this program

548
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 5: about Joe Biden losing his grip, it seems on the

549
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 5: black vote and the appeal that Donald Trump has. He

550
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 5: was in a church in Detroit over the weekend and

551
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 5: dropped the line we've heard a lot of times Donnie

552
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:27,719
Speaker 5: says he's done more for the black community in this

553
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 5: country than any president since Abraham Lincoln. Are you actually

554
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 5: seeing this bear itself out in the numbers.

555
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 4: Well, that's certainly not a question that we've asked in

556
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 4: a poll.

557
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 9: But I think what we're seeing in our polling is

558
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 9: you've got to again differentiate older Black voters.

559
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 4: From younger Black voters.

560
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 9: Older Black voters, most especially older Black women have been

561
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 9: an extremely reliable group for Democrats in general and Biden specifically,

562
00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 9: and he continues to retain support amongst Black voters over

563
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 9: the age of fifty, where he's had an erosion. And

564
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 9: when you see numbers where about twenty percent of the

565
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 9: Black vote now is telling us pollsters that they're going

566
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 9: to vote for Trump. That's amongst young Black voters. And

567
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 9: really the key there is not the situation in the

568
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:23,160
Speaker 9: Middle East, but it's the economy. Young voters in general

569
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 9: are extremely unhappy with the state of the economy. They

570
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 9: don't approve the job that Joe Biden is doing on

571
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 9: the economy. They think Donald Trump is a better steward

572
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 9: of the economy. And that's especially true amongst all young

573
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 9: voters and of young Black voters. That's where Biden's erosion

574
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 9: really is being generated.

575
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 5: Interesting, it's good to get specific on these things, certainly

576
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 5: when you're talking to Don Levy. Fascinating take from Pew Research.

577
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 5: Don on something you've talked about here more than once.

578
00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 5: The elusive or not so elusive, as it turns out,

579
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 5: double hater those who say they don't like either major

580
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 5: party presidential candidate. I wouldn't vote for Trump or Biden.

581
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 5: It turns out, according to Pew, that it makes up

582
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 5: a quarter of the electorate, and that's an all time high.

583
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 5: How do you play with that going into a cycle?

584
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 4: Here?

585
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:19,720
Speaker 5: Don I just mentioned we're going to be at the

586
00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 5: first convention one month from today, and in that time

587
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 5: there will be the big debate, there will be Donald

588
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:30,959
Speaker 5: Trump sentencing, and probably a number of other things that

589
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 5: can turn people's attention one way or the other here,

590
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 5: including the naming of a vice presidential candidate. What do

591
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 5: the double haters do with all of.

592
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 9: That, Well, let's turn it on his head for just

593
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 9: one second, Joe. Let's talk about the love haters for

594
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 9: a second. Those people who have a favorable view of

595
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 9: one of the candidates and an unfavorable view of the others.

596
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 9: As you point out, that's about three quarters of the electorate,

597
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 9: and their votes are.

598
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 4: Already almost etched in.

599
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:59,959
Speaker 9: Granted, amongst the love haters, they are with their candidate

600
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 9: at the rate of about ninety five to one. Those

601
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 9: folks are not going to switch. And if the election

602
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:10,959
Speaker 9: today were held only amongst the love haters, that's seventy

603
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 9: five percent. If you one candidate favorably and the other unfavorably.

604
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 9: Trump is up in the battleground states by about four points.

605
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 9: When you turn now to our friends, the double haters

606
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 9: who have a negative view of both of them, That

607
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 9: group of people did tend to vote for Biden in

608
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 9: the last election.

609
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 4: Right now, they favor Biden by.

610
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 9: About ten or eleven points nationally, by about eight points

611
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 9: in the battleground states. But they're unhappy. They're desperately unhappy

612
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 9: with the economy. They do tend to be younger, but

613
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 9: at the same time they are ardently in favor of

614
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 9: abortion rights, so they are up for grabs now. Some

615
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 9: of those voters appear likely to leak off to a

616
00:32:56,000 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 9: third party candidate. RFK is pulling in some of them.

617
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 9: Doubt is counting on being able to bring home some

618
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 9: of those double haters who had voted for him in

619
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 9: twenty twenty. Right now they don't approve of Joe Biden.

620
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 9: Biden's approval rating amongst young double haters is nine points

621
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 9: approved and eighty eight points disapprove. So Biden's got his

622
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 9: work cut out for him to bring those doubled haters,

623
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 9: especially those young double haters, back home, And no doubt

624
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 9: that's why he's bringing out some of the cultural icons

625
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 9: some politicians who are seen more favorably amongst those double

626
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 9: haters to try to get those folks to come back

627
00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 9: into the Biden fold.

628
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 5: We got to think about the weekend we just had it,

629
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 5: and I wonder how you play the optics in your

630
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 5: head here if we step away from the numbers for

631
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 5: just a moment. With Don Levy, we saw the optics

632
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 5: of President Biden on stage out in California, razzle, dazzle,

633
00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 5: lots of stars. Julia Roberts is there, Jimmy Kimmel's got

634
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 5: him on stage with Barack Obama, and granted, I'm seeing

635
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 5: lots of videos of him quote unquote freezing on the stage,

636
00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 5: and it doesn't seem that that's actually what happened. The

637
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 5: contrast of Donald Trump going to Detroit and asking black

638
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 5: voters to support him is great. If we come zoom

639
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:22,359
Speaker 5: the lens out even wider, some of the things that

640
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:27,240
Speaker 5: Donald Trump said at his rally over the weekend really

641
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 5: paint a picture here of the contest that we're looking at.

642
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:36,320
Speaker 5: Do voters care about the optics that I describe, well.

643
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,799
Speaker 9: I think both then to days, in some senses, they

644
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 9: understand they understand that probably seventy five percent of the

645
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:45,840
Speaker 9: vote is already baked in, and so they're really competing

646
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:46,480
Speaker 9: for a.

647
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:48,240
Speaker 4: Very small slice of the electorate.

648
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:51,080
Speaker 9: And you slice that even dinner when you realize that

649
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 9: it's only in six or seven states. So they're trying

650
00:34:54,719 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 9: everything they can to sway those double haters, the young voters, to.

651
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:01,840
Speaker 4: Try to convince older voters.

652
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:06,239
Speaker 9: Older voters had been more in Trump's camp, and older

653
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:10,320
Speaker 9: voters now are migrating over to some degree to Biden.

654
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 9: It's really quite interesting that at this point when you

655
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 9: talk to older voters.

656
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:18,720
Speaker 4: They're starting to say that Biden is the more conservative

657
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 4: candidate and that speaks to them.

658
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 9: Whereas young voters are looking for radical change, they want

659
00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:26,879
Speaker 9: everything changed in our government.

660
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:27,840
Speaker 4: Older voters do not.

661
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:32,280
Speaker 9: And older voters are concerned about social security, medical issues,

662
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 9: and that right now they're starting to see Biden protecting

663
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 9: those more so than Trump. So we've seen a bit

664
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:42,239
Speaker 9: of an inversion, at least in Poeing right now, where

665
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:45,840
Speaker 9: younger voters are moving away from Biden, but older voters

666
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:47,759
Speaker 9: are moving towards him right now.

667
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:52,320
Speaker 5: Fascinating, fascinating. I've only got a minute left. Don you

668
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 5: mentioned RFK Junior. I just wonder if he finds his

669
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:59,800
Speaker 5: way onto the debate stage, how much of a threat

670
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:02,400
Speaker 5: that will be for the front runners here, how disruptive

671
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:03,600
Speaker 5: that could be to the race.

672
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 9: Well, it's certainly a threat, and it's a threat to

673
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:10,359
Speaker 9: both of them, because again you're looking at that thin

674
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:13,279
Speaker 9: slice of these double haters who you know, and you

675
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 9: got to remember it. They don't like either of the

676
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 9: major party candidates. So another opportunity, another option appeals to

677
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 9: them at this point in time in the campaign. The

678
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 9: rationale that says, hey, you'd be wasting a vode. You

679
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:31,319
Speaker 9: know that candidate can't win. You're really, you know, a

680
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 9: spoiler that doesn't resonate yet. As you said, we're looking

681
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 9: at the debate, we're looking at the sentencing, we're looking

682
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:40,960
Speaker 9: at the conventions.

683
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:43,880
Speaker 4: These double haters are going to have to start making

684
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 4: up their mind, but many of them probably won't.

685
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 9: Until we get past Labor Day. So we're going to

686
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:50,320
Speaker 9: continue to talk about.

687
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 4: Them until that.

688
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 5: Don Levy, it's great to have you back, Are there,

689
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 5: triple haters?

690
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:55,239
Speaker 7: This is Bloomberg.

691
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:01,799
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can

692
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

693
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 1: Ronoo with a Bloomberg business app. You can also listen

694
00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:11,280
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

695
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:17,279
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

696
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:18,640
Speaker 5: Charlie, do you have Alexa in your house? You ask

697
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 5: Alexa questions? Or does Alexa spy on you from time

698
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:21,919
Speaker 5: to time?

699
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 1: I do not, But even better than that, my wife

700
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 1: has me in the house. She asked questions and I

701
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 1: don't always know.

702
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:31,240
Speaker 5: Okay, Well, I bet you do more often than Alexa.

703
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:32,280
Speaker 7: Sometimes.

704
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:34,880
Speaker 5: I always love asking or talking about Alexa on the

705
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 5: air because everyone lets me know when they start talking

706
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:41,360
Speaker 5: back in their house because the show is on. Hey Alexa, sorry,

707
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:45,800
Speaker 5: I had to The Washington Post had questions Kayley lines

708
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:48,640
Speaker 5: for Alexa when it came to politics, and I've never

709
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:50,399
Speaker 5: talked to Alexa about politics before.

710
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:51,879
Speaker 7: I don't know if you have no.

711
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:57,360
Speaker 5: And couldn't figure out who won the twenty twenty election

712
00:37:57,640 --> 00:37:59,080
Speaker 5: by asking Alexa.

713
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:01,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, and this is not an Alexa unique problem. They

714
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 2: also asked a number of chatbots, including chatbots built by

715
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 2: Microsoft and Google. Google's Gemini, when asked who won the

716
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 2: twenty twenty election, said I'm still learning how to answer

717
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:15,239
Speaker 2: this question. In the meantime, try Google search, Microsoft's co

718
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 2: pilots answer looks like I can't respond to this topic.

719
00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:20,760
Speaker 2: Ye explore Bang's search results.

720
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:23,279
Speaker 7: Do they still kick you back to ban? Since that

721
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 7: defeat the purpose?

722
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:27,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess go figure out for yourself who you think.

723
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:27,839
Speaker 7: Right.

724
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:31,280
Speaker 3: For the record, Coviden did win the twenty twenty election.

725
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 4: Right.

726
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:33,920
Speaker 2: We are now in the twenty twenty four election cycle,

727
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 2: and apparently AI still is not able.

728
00:38:36,239 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 3: To still will answer what happened the last go around.

729
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 5: I forget predicting it perhaps is.

730
00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 2: A little bit concerning, so we figured we should bring

731
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 2: in an AI expert to discuss how it's factoring into

732
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:49,279
Speaker 2: this election cycle, but also our geopolitical relationships is well.

733
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:51,719
Speaker 2: Gregory Allen is joining us here in our Washington, d C.

734
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 2: Studio from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where

735
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:57,840
Speaker 2: he is the director of the Wadwani Center for AI

736
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:00,840
Speaker 2: and Advanced Technologies. Greg welcome to Bloomberg. Thank you so

737
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 2: much for joining us here in studio. We should be

738
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:07,400
Speaker 2: concerned about this, right we are heading into another election

739
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 2: and AI still can't tell you accurately who won the

740
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:13,840
Speaker 2: last one. How is anybody supposed to be relying on

741
00:39:13,920 --> 00:39:14,719
Speaker 2: it for information.

742
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:18,240
Speaker 13: Well, in this case, you might want to blame people,

743
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:21,840
Speaker 13: not AI, because what you're describing in this story reflects

744
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 13: a very conscious choice on the part of these companies

745
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:26,879
Speaker 13: for how they want to handle this. Now, think about

746
00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 13: the difference between an AI tool and a classical search engine.

747
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 13: A classical search engine is serving you up results and saying,

748
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:37,280
Speaker 13: here's what other people have said on this topic relevant

749
00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:39,239
Speaker 13: to the keywords that you just gave me, whereas an

750
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:43,239
Speaker 13: AI is saying, I Chat GBT or I Alexa give

751
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:45,840
Speaker 13: you this answer. So there's a lot more of the

752
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:49,920
Speaker 13: company's brand at stake in answering that question. And some

753
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:52,480
Speaker 13: companies have made a conscious choice that they just prefer

754
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:55,880
Speaker 13: to not weigh in on this twenty twenty election issue,

755
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:58,239
Speaker 13: and they'd rather refer you to their search engine where

756
00:39:58,280 --> 00:39:59,920
Speaker 13: other people can express their opinion.

757
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 5: But it also doesn't that challenge the whole ideas I've

758
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:05,760
Speaker 5: been hearing that these search engines they don't even matter anymore,

759
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:08,440
Speaker 5: and nobody's going to Google. I've got Chat, GPT, I've

760
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:09,840
Speaker 5: got my copilot, That's.

761
00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:10,200
Speaker 4: All I need.

762
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 7: And I guess the answer is not so much so.

763
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:16,200
Speaker 13: There's multiple theories for what the future of search looks

764
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:18,520
Speaker 13: like and what the future of AI looks like. If

765
00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:22,479
Speaker 13: you're Microsoft, you've been integrating chat GPT results with being

766
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:25,880
Speaker 13: really since the first weeks of the modern AI revolution,

767
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:29,640
Speaker 13: since the launch of chat GPT, But it turns out

768
00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 13: that large language model results like those of chat GPT

769
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 13: are actually much more expensive to serve up than search

770
00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:38,960
Speaker 13: engine results. So whereas returning a result for search engines

771
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:42,440
Speaker 13: might cost a tiny fraction of a penny, returning results

772
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 13: for a large language model might cost like nine or

773
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 13: ten cents, which when you multiply that times hundreds of

774
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 13: billions of queries, those are really actually meaningful economics that

775
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:54,399
Speaker 13: the companies have to take into account. So right now,

776
00:40:54,480 --> 00:40:58,000
Speaker 13: the search engine ecosystem and the large language model AI

777
00:40:58,120 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 13: assistant ecosystem are existing side by side, with really more

778
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 13: of the economic value, at least at present, still being

779
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 13: delivered by classical search engines, which I should mention if

780
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 13: you open them up, they have a lot of AI,

781
00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 13: it's just older approaches to AI and machine learning rather

782
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:14,480
Speaker 13: than the more modern large language model approach.

783
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:16,760
Speaker 2: But when we think specifically about how this is playing

784
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:19,280
Speaker 2: into the selection cycle. It's not just about asking questions

785
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:21,719
Speaker 2: and getting answers. This AI can also be generative. It's

786
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 2: creating images and videos which you aren't automatically able to

787
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 2: verify with the naked human eye as to whether or

788
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:30,480
Speaker 2: not it's accurate. How concerned should we be about the

789
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:34,279
Speaker 2: opportunity for deep fakes or just other misths in disinformation

790
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:37,960
Speaker 2: to be circulating AI powered on social media platforms.

791
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:41,040
Speaker 13: This is something that I worried about a lot during

792
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:43,200
Speaker 13: my time in the Department of Efense. I was previously

793
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 13: the director of Strategy and Policy at the Joint Artificial

794
00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:48,920
Speaker 13: Intelligence Center, and one of the challenges that the DoD

795
00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:52,439
Speaker 13: was wrestling with was foreign intelligence agencies who were trying

796
00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:56,920
Speaker 13: to put out fake information, sometimes aided by computer generated

797
00:41:56,960 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 13: imagery tools, stuff that we know about from Photoshop for

798
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 13: aga sample. And at the same time, the Internet Research

799
00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:05,920
Speaker 13: Agency of Russia hired hundreds, at one point even more

800
00:42:05,920 --> 00:42:08,840
Speaker 13: than a thousand people to just go write and post

801
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:13,120
Speaker 13: disinformation online. The problem was those were native Russian speakers

802
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:16,040
Speaker 13: who made a lot of lousy grammatical mistakes, the type

803
00:42:16,040 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 13: that you make when your first language is Russian and

804
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:21,279
Speaker 13: your English is pretty bad. What AI can do is

805
00:42:21,320 --> 00:42:23,880
Speaker 13: it can solve some of those problems that Russian intelligence

806
00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 13: services had. Rather than needing people who are really good

807
00:42:26,520 --> 00:42:29,960
Speaker 13: at photoshop, it can just actually say, AI, please generate

808
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 13: me images of the following thing that would be scandalous

809
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:36,000
Speaker 13: if the US military had actually engaged in it, or

810
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:40,280
Speaker 13: AI please generate five thousand posts about why Joe Biden

811
00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:42,919
Speaker 13: is a terrible president. That would be suitable for all

812
00:42:42,960 --> 00:42:45,799
Speaker 13: these platforms. So what you're seeing is the cost and

813
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:49,960
Speaker 13: complexity of executing certain types of disinformation attack might be

814
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:51,960
Speaker 13: going down. And in fact, we just saw that last

815
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:55,480
Speaker 13: month with open AI revealing that it had identified multiple

816
00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:59,120
Speaker 13: foreign intelligent services were already using its platform to generate propaglan.

817
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 5: So it brings us, at least here in Washington, to

818
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:06,000
Speaker 5: the conversation about regulation or lack thereof so far. And

819
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:07,880
Speaker 5: it's something that Kaylee and I got into in a

820
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:10,840
Speaker 5: conversation last week with Steve Balmer, of course, the former

821
00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 5: CEO of Microsoft. He's got something new, cold, or not

822
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:16,520
Speaker 5: so new at this point, called USA Facts that seeks

823
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 5: to educate people in a world of misinformation on how

824
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:22,280
Speaker 5: the government actually works. With that in mind, though, listen

825
00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:25,520
Speaker 5: to his take on the potential impact of regulation.

826
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 14: I don't think regulation is our savior. Probably the right

827
00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:36,240
Speaker 14: thing is to make sure the legislation is in place

828
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:41,560
Speaker 14: so that people who have been violated in some way,

829
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:46,479
Speaker 14: whether it's deep fakes or you know, child harassed through

830
00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 14: an AI, whatever, that they are clearly prosecutable. That I

831
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:53,279
Speaker 14: think we need legislation.

832
00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:58,480
Speaker 5: What's your take on the approach that Steve Balmer just

833
00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:00,880
Speaker 5: suggested and what we've seen all ready in terms of

834
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:04,360
Speaker 5: the infant stages of a conversation with Chuck Schumer for

835
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:05,280
Speaker 5: instance in the Senate.

836
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:09,600
Speaker 13: Sure so, AI regulation is a really broad topic and

837
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 13: it gets to deep fakes and really every segment of

838
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:14,200
Speaker 13: the economy that anybody.

839
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:16,400
Speaker 7: Is thinking the first thing we need to get an.

840
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 13: I would say deep fikes is definitely the one that

841
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 13: has the most momentum in Congress. There are several bills

842
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:24,560
Speaker 13: that have been introduced by Senator Amy Klobuchar really looking

843
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:27,520
Speaker 13: at tackling multiple sides of the deep fake issue, both

844
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 13: the election interference side that we were just talking about

845
00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:33,719
Speaker 13: a moment ago, as well as child or sexual exploitation

846
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:36,840
Speaker 13: that we just heard Steve Baumer talking about, and in

847
00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 13: terms of the prosecutable part. This really gets to liability

848
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:45,160
Speaker 13: law versus criminal law, and liability law is typically a

849
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:47,840
Speaker 13: state by state issue. This gets to who can sue

850
00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 13: whom and under what circumstances. But then you think about

851
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 13: what is actually illegal. You asked the question who's really

852
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 13: at fault here? Is it the folks who create the

853
00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 13: tools that are then misused or is it the people

854
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:02,200
Speaker 13: who are miss using those tools? And you have to

855
00:45:02,200 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 13: come up with standards around what might constitute negligence, what

856
00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 13: might constitute willful knowledge, and intent for malicious conduct. Those

857
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:12,360
Speaker 13: are all really thorny questions. The one that Congress is

858
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:13,880
Speaker 13: wrestling with right now.

859
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:15,440
Speaker 7: Well really fascinating.

860
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 5: I hope this is the start of a conversation with you.

861
00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:21,239
Speaker 7: Come back and talk to us soon, because these stories are.

862
00:45:21,280 --> 00:45:24,040
Speaker 13: This is not slowing down. Congress is continuing to generate play.

863
00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:26,960
Speaker 5: That's why he's director of the wad WANTI Center for

864
00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:29,759
Speaker 5: AI and Advanced Technology is the Center for Strategic and

865
00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 5: International Studies CSIS Gregory Allen.

866
00:45:32,600 --> 00:45:34,160
Speaker 7: Great conversation, Thanks for being.

867
00:45:33,960 --> 00:45:39,759
Speaker 5: With us, Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

868
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:40,840
Speaker 4: Make sure to.

869
00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 5: Subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever

870
00:45:44,040 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 5: you get your podcasts, and you can find us live

871
00:45:46,719 --> 00:45:50,480
Speaker 5: every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg

872
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:51,200
Speaker 5: dot com.