WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: December 27, 2024 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:08.560 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.600 --> 0:00:15.400 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.440 --> 0:00:18.640 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:22.239 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.360 --> 0:00:24.840 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.880 --> 0:00:27.640 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.680 --> 0:00:31.240 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:33.879 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:33.960 --> 0:00:35.800 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. 0:00:36.400 --> 0:00:37.800 All right, we're going to turn to tech now. 0:00:37.880 --> 0:00:40.760 Dan Ives of webbush raising his Apple price target from 0:00:40.760 --> 0:00:43.800 three hundred dollars to three hundred and twenty five, writing quote, 0:00:43.840 --> 0:00:47.000 we believe Apples heading into a multi year AI driven 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:50.640 iPhone upgrade cycle that is still being underestimated by the street. 0:00:50.960 --> 0:00:53.640 Apple's on pace to reach the four trillion dollar market 0:00:53.640 --> 0:00:57.640 cap threshold and be the first member of this exclusive club. 0:00:57.680 --> 0:01:00.600 I'm so excited that Dan Ives joins us. Now, Dan, 0:01:00.680 --> 0:01:03.080 thank you so much for spending part of your holiday 0:01:03.120 --> 0:01:06.119 shortened week with us here at Bloomberg. So why now, 0:01:06.240 --> 0:01:09.160 why are rifting the price target now? This awkward week 0:01:09.240 --> 0:01:11.800 between Christmas and New Year's and you said, I have 0:01:11.840 --> 0:01:13.320 a call to make Google. 0:01:13.080 --> 0:01:16.160 Because the Bears they're in hibernation mood because they can't 0:01:16.200 --> 0:01:17.640 find AI in the spreadsheets. 0:01:17.680 --> 0:01:19.040 And look, we're doing the work. 0:01:19.319 --> 0:01:22.080 What we see across the age of supply chain. I mean, 0:01:22.120 --> 0:01:24.800 we're seeing strength, not just in the December. What I 0:01:24.840 --> 0:01:26.840 believe is going to be ultimately a record year for 0:01:26.880 --> 0:01:30.360 Apple two hundred and forty million iPhone units. And that's why, Look, 0:01:30.440 --> 0:01:34.280 this is going to be an AI driven supercycle that's 0:01:34.400 --> 0:01:35.360 multi year, and. 0:01:35.240 --> 0:01:37.520 That's why I look, the hater they hated. 0:01:37.280 --> 0:01:41.840 Two trillion, despised at three trillion, A four trillion can 0:01:41.959 --> 0:01:42.720 be yelling from the. 0:01:42.640 --> 0:01:43.480 Top of the mountains. 0:01:43.640 --> 0:01:46.319 You write your note that you estimate roughly three hundred 0:01:46.319 --> 0:01:48.920 million iPhones globally have not upgraded. 0:01:48.480 --> 0:01:49.880 Over four years. 0:01:50.200 --> 0:01:52.240 So do you think this upgrade cycle is going to 0:01:52.240 --> 0:01:54.920 be let out of necessity because people are just desperate 0:01:54.920 --> 0:01:57.440 for a new phone, or it is it that AI 0:01:57.560 --> 0:01:59.480 capability that Apple is starting to introduce. 0:01:59.520 --> 0:02:02.080 I think about sixty seventy percent of it is that 0:02:02.240 --> 0:02:05.000 is that you've gotten to the point now where that's 0:02:05.000 --> 0:02:07.800 a pin up upgrade cycle that's really unprescedent in for 0:02:07.880 --> 0:02:11.400 Apple prost Remember the install base that's increased two hundred 0:02:11.400 --> 0:02:13.679 million even over the last few years. So the install 0:02:13.760 --> 0:02:17.560 base continues to be the golden goose of Cupertino. But 0:02:17.720 --> 0:02:20.960 the AI driven piece, it's just starting. That's why it's 0:02:20.960 --> 0:02:23.440 to get out the popcorn moment because in our opinion, 0:02:23.840 --> 0:02:27.880 the consumer AI revolution gooz through Cooper Tino and I think, look, 0:02:28.320 --> 0:02:31.560 that's why the bears will talk about valuation like they 0:02:31.600 --> 0:02:34.280 have for years in Apple, it's about some of the 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:36.880 parts about what AI adds to the story. 0:02:36.960 --> 0:02:38.880 We think it's thirty to four hours per share. 0:02:39.160 --> 0:02:41.760 How hard would it be though for the next upgrade cycle, 0:02:41.919 --> 0:02:45.359 especially if so much is driven now by software updates, 0:02:45.560 --> 0:02:46.919 the hardware hasn't really changed. 0:02:47.000 --> 0:02:50.120 Well, I think that's an iPhone seventeen again, that will 0:02:50.160 --> 0:02:52.680 be you know what we'll be seeing later this year, 0:02:52.960 --> 0:02:56.120 you know, into twenty twenty five, that's actually gonna be 0:02:56.120 --> 0:03:00.600 a hardware driven a new form factor that's really going 0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:03.160 to be AI driven. So that's why this is almost 0:03:03.320 --> 0:03:07.720 it's a one two punch. It's sixteen into seventeen, and 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:10.560 that's why what makes this unique. It's it's about the 0:03:10.639 --> 0:03:13.640 increased services, and ultimately you have hundreds of apps right 0:03:13.680 --> 0:03:15.800 now in development that are going to be on top 0:03:15.800 --> 0:03:20.240 of Apple intelligence. And that's why the enterprise AI revolutions 0:03:20.280 --> 0:03:22.440 the godfather of AI Jensen, a vidiot. 0:03:22.720 --> 0:03:25.840 The consumer AI revolution goes to Coupertino. 0:03:25.880 --> 0:03:28.400 And I think that's why we could see four trillion 0:03:28.400 --> 0:03:30.040 potentially you know today or Monday. 0:03:30.200 --> 0:03:32.800 One potential difficult spot or is it potential? Is a 0:03:32.800 --> 0:03:35.480 difficult spot is China. How are you thinking about China, 0:03:35.560 --> 0:03:37.880 especially with the fact that Apple needs to partner with 0:03:37.920 --> 0:03:41.000 a local company to introduce. 0:03:40.600 --> 0:03:40.880 All of this. 0:03:41.720 --> 0:03:45.800 Look Cook ten percent politician, ninety percent CEO, right, and 0:03:45.840 --> 0:03:46.400 no one. 0:03:46.280 --> 0:03:48.520 Understand might actually have to be more of a diplomat 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:50.760 in twenty twenty five ten percent and. 0:03:50.800 --> 0:03:52.400 Maybe thirty percent seventy percent. 0:03:52.440 --> 0:03:54.640 But the point is, look, it's what him and Mosk 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:57.280 have had to navigate in terms of success in China. 0:03:57.680 --> 0:04:00.800 But what I love about the cycle that probably gets 0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:03.960 announced from the Chinese partner early in twenty twenty five, 0:04:04.800 --> 0:04:08.080 it gets rolled down in April. So the China upgrade 0:04:08.160 --> 0:04:12.000 cycle in terms of AI coming to China, that's when 0:04:12.040 --> 0:04:15.080 that happens in April. And this is just the beginning 0:04:15.200 --> 0:04:19.200 of a multi year AI cycle that plays out from Apple. 0:04:19.560 --> 0:04:22.640 You also talk about Pollenteer and salesforce in your note. 0:04:22.640 --> 0:04:25.640 I recently spoke to Mark Benioff about agent Force and 0:04:25.640 --> 0:04:28.160 this new iteration they introduced of agent force, and he 0:04:28.200 --> 0:04:30.760 said it's the most exciting thing he's worked on in 0:04:30.880 --> 0:04:34.279 his entire career. Is that why you're so excited as well? 0:04:34.320 --> 0:04:37.279 And for context, I mean Bennioff, mount Rush Moore of 0:04:37.400 --> 0:04:40.440 Tech right, but it speaks to our view. It's ten 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:43.719 pm in this AI party that goes to four am, 0:04:43.800 --> 0:04:46.520 and behind the velvet roops, Bennioff want to see his 0:04:46.600 --> 0:04:48.480 names on the list. Now, all of a sudden he's 0:04:48.520 --> 0:04:51.680 on the dance force. Software is let in now already 0:04:51.720 --> 0:04:54.320 on the dance for From a use case perspective, is 0:04:54.320 --> 0:04:57.440 the messy of AI Pollenteer and look that's one As 0:04:57.520 --> 0:05:01.120 I say, the Bears can see AI in the spreadsheets. 0:05:01.440 --> 0:05:03.880 That's how you know they hated pound Teer as a 0:05:03.960 --> 0:05:08.200 teenager earlier this year. Despises a senior Cisten live in 0:05:08.240 --> 0:05:11.560 Derry Beach at eighty three. But it's just the beginning 0:05:11.680 --> 0:05:17.240 now of what I've viewsed the software age in AI. Salesforce, 0:05:17.520 --> 0:05:19.599 pound tier, and I think others like Mango. 0:05:19.360 --> 0:05:21.479 dB What name do you think we're gonna be talking 0:05:21.480 --> 0:05:25.200 about next year that we're very quiet during twenty twenty four. 0:05:25.400 --> 0:05:26.279 You know, twenty twenty. 0:05:26.120 --> 0:05:29.800 Four really was about Nvidia Tesla. 0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:31.680 What do you think will be the names of twenty 0:05:31.720 --> 0:05:33.600 twenty Yeah, I think there was continued to be. 0:05:33.839 --> 0:05:36.440 In terms of my view for large cap tech, I 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:39.600 think up twenty five percent two that twenty five I 0:05:39.640 --> 0:05:42.320 think what hasn't been on the radar, it's gonna be 0:05:42.839 --> 0:05:47.600 M and A software cybersecurity because with con done at 0:05:47.600 --> 0:05:50.599 the FTC, that nightmare, whether it's Ninemare and albm Street 0:05:50.600 --> 0:05:53.160 five thirteen, that's done for tech Now, I think you 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:55.240 can see a lot of accelerated M and A when 0:05:55.240 --> 0:05:58.240 it comes to software, when it comes to cybersecurity, and 0:05:58.279 --> 0:06:01.400 I think that that is is what's going to weed 0:06:01.440 --> 0:06:02.440 this AI cycle. 0:06:02.480 --> 0:06:02.960 And I think. 0:06:02.880 --> 0:06:06.240 Specifically cybersecurity is an area that I believe could ultimately 0:06:06.240 --> 0:06:09.159 be one of the biggest outperformers when it comes. 0:06:09.000 --> 0:06:11.400 To Another tech analyst joined me this week and said 0:06:11.400 --> 0:06:13.320 the same thing. Twenty twenty five is all going to 0:06:13.320 --> 0:06:16.800 be about cybersecurity. I want to end on Tesla overnight, 0:06:16.839 --> 0:06:19.960 Elon Musk was clashing with a far right activist who 0:06:20.240 --> 0:06:23.840 has been close to President elect Trump, Laura Lumer, and 0:06:24.279 --> 0:06:28.040 the crux of the argument was out h one b visus. 0:06:28.680 --> 0:06:32.359 But this individual is also saying that Musk really isn't 0:06:32.440 --> 0:06:35.119 maga and yet he's so close to President elect Trump. 0:06:35.240 --> 0:06:37.279 Do you think there's a risk there actually that he 0:06:37.360 --> 0:06:39.560 will lose that proximity to power, which you said was 0:06:39.600 --> 0:06:41.080 one of the best bets of the Ages. 0:06:41.320 --> 0:06:42.600 Look, it's a bet for the Ages. 0:06:42.640 --> 0:06:45.640 That's I think that bromance actually gets stronger between Musk 0:06:45.680 --> 0:06:50.479 and Trump because my view is that Trump needs Musk 0:06:50.839 --> 0:06:55.200 must needs Trump, and whether it's Ai, whether it's China, 0:06:55.800 --> 0:06:58.599 whether it's some of the policy in terms of Dage, 0:06:59.040 --> 0:07:01.240 we're going to have these continued dust up. So this 0:07:01.279 --> 0:07:03.240 is gonna be a soap opera I think from Musk 0:07:03.279 --> 0:07:05.839 and Trump that continues to play out. But that is 0:07:05.920 --> 0:07:08.719 going to actually strengthen and it continues to be from Musk. 0:07:09.120 --> 0:07:12.080 It's the best bet he ever made on Trump. 0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:13.960 Okay, So this is just a flare up in an episode, 0:07:14.000 --> 0:07:15.440 not the season finale exactly. 0:07:16.120 --> 0:07:19.600 This is just one episode in a ten to twelve 0:07:19.600 --> 0:07:20.680 partter on Netflix. 0:07:20.920 --> 0:07:22.360 All right, Dan, i'ves have webbush. 0:07:22.400 --> 0:07:34.280 Thank you so much for joining us this Friday. Thank 0:07:34.320 --> 0:07:36.200 you so much, Rob for joining us this Friday morning, 0:07:36.240 --> 0:07:40.080 alongside of course Dan Greenhouse. Okay, so you say this 0:07:40.240 --> 0:07:42.840 is going to be challenging, but that was already on display. 0:07:42.920 --> 0:07:46.080 I think last week we had basically three iterations of 0:07:46.160 --> 0:07:49.320 potentially how they could avoid a government shutdown, and they 0:07:49.360 --> 0:07:51.640 did in the end. But what did the whole saga 0:07:52.080 --> 0:07:55.600 tell you about how Trump is going to govern even 0:07:55.720 --> 0:07:58.400 with these majorities he has in the House in the Senate. 0:07:58.760 --> 0:08:01.720 Yeah, first of all, with you both, happy holidays. It 0:08:01.880 --> 0:08:02.360 showed us. 0:08:02.480 --> 0:08:05.160 I think that when you burn institutions down, when you're 0:08:05.200 --> 0:08:07.960 running on an anti institution campaign, then when you come 0:08:08.000 --> 0:08:10.280 into office you can't then rely on those institutions to 0:08:10.560 --> 0:08:11.080 do your bidding. 0:08:11.200 --> 0:08:11.360 Right. 0:08:11.400 --> 0:08:15.440 It's the Republican House majority is a slim majority, and 0:08:15.480 --> 0:08:17.840 it's a disunified majority. It's going to be really hard 0:08:18.360 --> 0:08:20.760 for Trump and especially for Speaker Mike Johnson if he 0:08:20.800 --> 0:08:23.880 gets the gavel on January third, to really ensure that 0:08:23.920 --> 0:08:26.920 they always have a majority vote. This isn't the days 0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:30.280 of Nancy Pelosi where every Democrat stayed in line all 0:08:30.320 --> 0:08:32.400 the time. It's going to be hard to wrangle these folks. 0:08:32.480 --> 0:08:32.640 Right. 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:35.800 Thirty eight Republicans voted against what Donald Trump wanted to 0:08:35.840 --> 0:08:40.200 see actually enacted all that whole episode, though kind of 0:08:40.320 --> 0:08:43.600 got brushed under the rug. What it said to me 0:08:43.720 --> 0:08:47.560 was that Speaker Johnson didn't have Trump's buying when he 0:08:47.600 --> 0:08:50.360 went to the floor with that deal that was negotiated 0:08:50.360 --> 0:08:54.440 with Democrats. Do you think he's able to keep the gavel? 0:08:54.920 --> 0:08:57.800 I think he probably is, mostly because I'm not quite 0:08:57.800 --> 0:09:00.000 sure if there's anybody else who could win a majority 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:03.120 vote on January third for Speaker, I would think that 0:09:03.280 --> 0:09:05.880 the next most obvious pick would be Jim Jordan, who 0:09:05.960 --> 0:09:08.839 is even further right than Speaker Johnson, even closer to 0:09:08.880 --> 0:09:10.160 Trump than Speaker Johnson is. 0:09:10.679 --> 0:09:12.080 But Speaker john Johnson has. 0:09:12.000 --> 0:09:13.800 Done a very good job, and by and large he 0:09:13.880 --> 0:09:17.080 really has had Donald Trump's support. Now you know Donald 0:09:17.080 --> 0:09:20.439 Trump is his agenda is going to be difficult to enact. 0:09:20.920 --> 0:09:23.679 He's certainly swinging for the fences. I think for Mike 0:09:23.720 --> 0:09:26.559 Johnson as Speaker, it really is it's about. 0:09:26.280 --> 0:09:27.760 The art of the possible right. 0:09:27.840 --> 0:09:30.160 It's not he can't get everything down that Trump wants 0:09:30.160 --> 0:09:31.719 to get done, or at least he can't get done 0:09:31.720 --> 0:09:33.920 as quickly as Trump would like. So what can he 0:09:34.000 --> 0:09:36.120 do and what can he have Trump's buy and for 0:09:36.200 --> 0:09:38.520 if he has negotiator or cooperate a little bit. 0:09:39.240 --> 0:09:40.880 I agree with a lot of what you're saying, and 0:09:40.920 --> 0:09:44.679 I think the average investor isn't aware. We know it's 0:09:44.679 --> 0:09:46.880 a raise within the majority right now, a couple of seats. 0:09:46.880 --> 0:09:49.959 Obviously some people are departing to leave to be in 0:09:50.000 --> 0:09:53.160 the administration, and obviously Matt Gates is leaving Congress in general. 0:09:53.600 --> 0:09:54.520 But I don't think people are. 0:09:54.400 --> 0:09:58.079 Aware when the TCGA passed, Republic's at two hundred and 0:09:58.120 --> 0:10:02.200 forty or so seats, much larger majority, and so forget 0:10:02.240 --> 0:10:05.720 even the ideological differences that the chip Roy group, if 0:10:05.720 --> 0:10:08.880 you will, exhibits, just mathematically, it's going to be really 0:10:08.880 --> 0:10:10.760 difficult when you can have one or two or three 0:10:10.840 --> 0:10:14.880 Republicans banding together to not pass no tax on tips 0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:16.640 or whatever it is that the administration wants to do. 0:10:17.880 --> 0:10:20.920 Has Republican leadership talked about how to overcome that hurdle? 0:10:21.280 --> 0:10:23.079 Well, I think first of all, they're writing on a 0:10:23.080 --> 0:10:24.760 few more seats to be filled. It's your point to 0:10:24.840 --> 0:10:27.640 have a slightly larger majority after some of these special 0:10:27.679 --> 0:10:30.680 elections are run and seats are filled. But you know, 0:10:30.840 --> 0:10:32.360 I really think it's going to be a question of 0:10:32.400 --> 0:10:34.800 muddling through, right, And this is kind of the issue 0:10:35.200 --> 0:10:38.400 generally speaking. Congress is not built for, you know, big 0:10:38.559 --> 0:10:41.839 fast change, and it's especially try definition, but by definition exactly, 0:10:41.840 --> 0:10:45.760 I mean, that's the whole point. And with Republicans having 0:10:45.800 --> 0:10:47.800 such a small majority not only in the House but 0:10:47.840 --> 0:10:50.199 also in the Senate, and certainly not having the sixty 0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:51.800 boat majority in the sense that they would need to 0:10:52.080 --> 0:10:55.200 unilaterally pass legislation, I mean, it's going to be really challenging. 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:56.800 And I think that that's one of the reasons why 0:10:56.800 --> 0:10:59.840 we're not seeing TCJ extension talked about in Q one. Right, 0:11:00.040 --> 0:11:03.680 it's going to take a while conversation and negotiation within 0:11:03.720 --> 0:11:06.160 the Republican caucus to get that done. 0:11:06.320 --> 0:11:07.760 Over you Q three, Q. 0:11:07.720 --> 0:11:11.160 Four, every Congressman and every congressman basically becomes king or 0:11:11.320 --> 0:11:13.800 Queen of the Hill in essence. I think of one 0:11:13.840 --> 0:11:18.480 person in particular, Congressman Lawler of New York, who basically 0:11:18.520 --> 0:11:20.720 is saying, I'm not going to vote for anything unless 0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:23.520 salts included because he also wants to run for governor 0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:26.040 of New York. I think, wink wink. I think he 0:11:26.080 --> 0:11:30.360 pretty much said that in his Christmas Hanukkah message. So, 0:11:30.480 --> 0:11:34.559 when you have individuals that are so tethered to specific issues, 0:11:35.240 --> 0:11:38.000 is there in your mind five issues that must be 0:11:38.080 --> 0:11:41.320 included in TCJA in order for it to meet the 0:11:41.360 --> 0:11:43.640 demands of all these different vying factions. 0:11:43.960 --> 0:11:46.400 Well, I think when push comes to shove, the worst 0:11:46.400 --> 0:11:49.160 case for Republicans is we will see a clean TCJA extension. 0:11:49.200 --> 0:11:51.960 So if we get to Q four and there hasn't 0:11:52.000 --> 0:11:54.760 been an agreement reach in base case, base case, we 0:11:54.800 --> 0:11:57.760 get TCJA extension, clean skinny. I mean that's essentially what 0:11:57.840 --> 0:12:00.320 just happened with that the budget negotiations end, you know 0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:03.560 last week, is that there was all of this discussion 0:12:03.640 --> 0:12:05.400 of you know, riders and add ons and this kind 0:12:05.400 --> 0:12:07.440 of major Christmas tree bill with a bunch of stuff, 0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:10.360 you know, individuals, preferences and priorities. 0:12:10.720 --> 0:12:12.080 None of that was in the final bill. 0:12:12.120 --> 0:12:14.840 There was some farm et cetera extension of the Farm bill, 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:18.680 but mostly it's like the lowest common denominator is the 0:12:18.760 --> 0:12:22.839 clean skinny package. And given that TCJA for individuals ends 0:12:23.040 --> 0:12:25.400 end of twenty twenty five. I think that the absolute 0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:28.600 necessity in our base cases, the Republicans will pass an extension. 0:12:28.600 --> 0:12:32.200 Now the question is what in addition do they pass. 0:12:32.320 --> 0:12:34.600 Is that no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, 0:12:34.920 --> 0:12:38.120 the salt you know, extension or relief. I think all 0:12:38.160 --> 0:12:40.360 of that will be part of the broader negotiation, but 0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:41.520 much harder to get done. 0:12:41.360 --> 0:12:43.280 With the same commerce for the same reason as we 0:12:43.440 --> 0:12:45.160 just discussed. I don't know how you do any of 0:12:45.200 --> 0:12:48.400 the other things. There's no built in constituency in Congress. 0:12:48.480 --> 0:12:51.319 It's not as if we've spent years building up an 0:12:51.400 --> 0:12:54.280 argument for no tax on tips or whatever it might be. 0:12:54.679 --> 0:12:57.360 So to your point about the TCGA clean extension being 0:12:57.400 --> 0:12:59.960 the base case, I think that's almost your only outcome. 0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:02.200 It's your bear, it's your base, and you it's your 0:13:02.240 --> 0:13:05.160 bull outcome, because I just don't see how when you 0:13:05.240 --> 0:13:08.439 have two Republicans that want one thing and four Republicans 0:13:08.440 --> 0:13:10.480 that are against that but for something else. I just 0:13:10.480 --> 0:13:12.280 don't know how you come to any sort of an 0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:15.120 agreement on anything, especially if you're going to try to 0:13:15.120 --> 0:13:19.240 get two reconciliation bills in this year. So I think 0:13:19.240 --> 0:13:21.000 that's your base, your bull and your bare outcome. I 0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:22.600 don't think there's any conversation at all. 0:13:22.880 --> 0:13:25.920 Yeah, I totally agree. Congressman Lawler and others will certainly 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:27.600 be talking about salt, and I think that there's a 0:13:27.600 --> 0:13:30.000 small chance we could see a doubling of the saltcat 0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:30.400 from ten. 0:13:30.320 --> 0:13:30.960 To twenty thousand. 0:13:31.000 --> 0:13:33.480 Sure, the marriage penalty, but other. 0:13:33.320 --> 0:13:35.640 Than that, I think it is fair to say that 0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:39.559 is the skinny bill. You know, this simple answer is 0:13:39.600 --> 0:13:42.480 probably going to be the most likely answer throughout this 0:13:42.559 --> 0:13:44.040 next Congress, because the bottom line. 0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:46.680 Is I totally agree. Once you, you know, try and 0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:47.560 bring a few folks. 0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:48.839 On one side, you're going to lose folks on the 0:13:48.840 --> 0:13:51.360 other side, and so it winds up just being again 0:13:51.400 --> 0:13:53.840 the art of the possible. What can Mike Johnson convince 0:13:54.480 --> 0:13:57.640 President Elect Donald Trump is good enough, is enough of 0:13:57.679 --> 0:13:59.680 his agenda to get through? And what can he convinces 0:13:59.679 --> 0:14:00.440 caucus to vote for. 0:14:00.679 --> 0:14:02.280 Okay, I want to talk to you about the fight 0:14:02.400 --> 0:14:05.280 that was looming yesterday on Twitter. I'm not sure if 0:14:05.320 --> 0:14:05.760 you saw it. 0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:06.880 It was between Laura. 0:14:06.720 --> 0:14:09.120 Lumers, actually a ton of other people. I know Dan 0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:11.920 you also saw it. So basically Mosk and the far 0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:14.160 right at the end of the day are arguing over 0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:16.839 immigration and H one B VISs. Where do you think 0:14:16.840 --> 0:14:18.520 Trump comes down on this issue? 0:14:18.800 --> 0:14:22.040 Well, I think Trump his focus first and foremost is 0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:24.520 on the border. So it's not say he hasn't thought 0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:26.840 about the H one B question that you know, skilled 0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:31.560 immigrants coming question. It is not his first priority, right 0:14:31.600 --> 0:14:33.840 he wants to secure the southern border if he. 0:14:33.840 --> 0:14:36.400 Wants, not his but the priority of many people he's 0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:37.520 putting in the administration. 0:14:37.600 --> 0:14:40.640 Yeah, exactly, I totally agree, and frankly the priority of 0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:42.680 you know, his base that got him elected not once 0:14:42.880 --> 0:14:46.000 but twice. And so you know, I don't think he 0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:48.400 has on the H one B question. 0:14:48.440 --> 0:14:49.920 It's not going to be his priority. 0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:52.320 It's clear that it's you know, Ramaswamian and Musk want 0:14:52.360 --> 0:14:55.160 to talk about it. And it is again another example 0:14:55.200 --> 0:14:57.480 of a rift we're seeing in this kind of bigger 0:14:57.520 --> 0:14:58.600 tent Republican party. 0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:01.600 So for the viewers that made be as online as 0:15:01.640 --> 0:15:04.400 we are, just to clarify, there is this debate going 0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:07.000 on among what we call the right right that wants 0:15:07.000 --> 0:15:10.000 to restrict immigration in a broad sense, and what has 0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:12.280 been known now is the tech right, the elon Musk 0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:15.480 world that agrees in general with the idea of restricting 0:15:15.520 --> 0:15:19.120 immigration large but also wants to increase the availability of 0:15:19.120 --> 0:15:21.360 these h one bvss that provide for the quote unquote 0:15:21.400 --> 0:15:25.760 skilled immigration, and those two worlds are clashing. For some reason, 0:15:25.800 --> 0:15:28.080 it happened over the weekend. I guess the vek Ramaswami 0:15:28.120 --> 0:15:31.680 got involved. I would agree that I don't know that 0:15:32.080 --> 0:15:35.040 the President Electroump has spent too much time thinking about 0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:37.560 the nuances of this, but he has spoken in the 0:15:37.600 --> 0:15:40.360 past about the need for skilled immigration. He wants to 0:15:40.400 --> 0:15:42.560 make it possible for those people to come here. I 0:15:42.600 --> 0:15:45.480 think while this is a fun online conversation, I think 0:15:45.520 --> 0:15:48.880 the skilled immigration argument is going to win out because 0:15:48.880 --> 0:15:52.240 you do have Musk sitting in such an important position 0:15:52.320 --> 0:15:54.760 next to the president. You have had the President discussing 0:15:54.800 --> 0:15:57.560 the need for skilled immigration, and it does provide for 0:15:57.960 --> 0:16:00.800 the masses something of a buifer case. So you don't 0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:04.280 look as restrictive by saying, listen, we just want to 0:16:04.320 --> 0:16:06.400 close the border to your point, but we also want 0:16:06.440 --> 0:16:08.880 the skilled people to come here. Is that not where 0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:09.760 this settles out? 0:16:10.120 --> 0:16:10.280 Well. 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:13.480 I think it is probably the hope for Donald Trump 0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:15.520 and an Elon muskets that's right, that's kind of your 0:16:15.760 --> 0:16:18.920 perfect miss, it's your best. We're going to close the border, 0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:20.840 but we're also going to allow the best and the 0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:24.120 brightest into the country to propel our economy forward. The 0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:26.560 issue is that's just not how the far right sees it, right, 0:16:26.600 --> 0:16:28.800 and so I actually think that changes to the H 0:16:28.880 --> 0:16:31.520 and B programmer are going to be harder or I 0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:34.600 should say, easier said than done. Right, it makes sense 0:16:34.600 --> 0:16:37.440 to many of us, it makes sense in the context 0:16:37.480 --> 0:16:40.000 of the economy as it sits today. Certainly you can 0:16:40.040 --> 0:16:42.040 have both, right, you can close the border, you can 0:16:42.080 --> 0:16:44.960 also allow that the most skilled in that there's no 0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:50.000 sort of internal disagreement there. But the issue is, I 0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:53.240 think MAGA Republicans it's not what they want, right. And 0:16:53.280 --> 0:16:55.080 while Trump doesn't have to get re elected in four years, 0:16:55.120 --> 0:16:58.040 you can't get re elected in four years. House Republicans 0:16:58.040 --> 0:17:00.600 have to get relected in two years. Center replt have 0:17:00.600 --> 0:17:02.400 to get relected two, four and six years from now, 0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:05.119 so they have to answer to the MAGA device. 0:17:05.320 --> 0:17:07.640 And you made a great point. Musk is definitely not 0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:10.760 in this far right Laura Lumer camp. He's battling them 0:17:10.880 --> 0:17:14.159 for those that maybe are just kicking up online on 0:17:14.200 --> 0:17:18.840 exactly what happened overnight. So let's talk about January. We 0:17:18.840 --> 0:17:24.120 have sixty seconds sequencing immigration, tax policy, tariffs one two three. 0:17:23.880 --> 0:17:26.760 I think, so we'll get the first reconcilation package will 0:17:26.760 --> 0:17:30.159 be immigration and energy. I think the second sort of 0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:33.520 big conversational that we're already having it now here is tariffs. 0:17:33.520 --> 0:17:35.320 It's probably Europe. 0:17:34.920 --> 0:17:39.199 Early, China, I mean early, but most importantly backloaded and 0:17:39.280 --> 0:17:42.640 very high on and targeted on specific sectors. And then 0:17:42.800 --> 0:17:45.000 the tax question is going to be two h And 0:17:45.119 --> 0:17:47.600 the bottom line is it's because that Republicans don't have 0:17:47.960 --> 0:17:50.560 the package around which they can form a majority. 0:17:50.560 --> 0:17:53.719 Today, Bobcasey, thank you so much for joining us this morning, 0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:56.920 and happy holidays and happy twenty twenty five. Rob Casey 0:17:56.920 --> 0:18:11.320 of Signum Global Advisors. Chuck Lieberman of Advisor's Capital Management, 0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:14.679 writing this, the economic environment should be slightly positive for 0:18:14.760 --> 0:18:18.639 socks and slightly negative for long term bonds. Inflation prospects 0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:22.400 could easily worsen between tariffs and immigration policy, which would 0:18:22.440 --> 0:18:26.439 freeze monetary policy for some period, but longer term rates 0:18:26.640 --> 0:18:28.679 would increase. We're hearing a lot of this, Chuck, and 0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:30.560 he joins us. Now, Chuck, thank you for spending your 0:18:30.560 --> 0:18:33.159 Friday morning with you. Happy holidays and New Year to you. 0:18:33.720 --> 0:18:36.320 So how are you thinking about the start of twenty 0:18:36.400 --> 0:18:40.520 twenty five, especially when policy things like tariffs immigration are 0:18:40.520 --> 0:18:43.919 going to be so important to how the bond market trades. 0:18:45.720 --> 0:18:48.800 Absolutely right, Emory, I agree with you. Happy holidays to 0:18:48.840 --> 0:18:52.560 you as well. In my judgment, there are things to 0:18:52.560 --> 0:18:57.360