1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:08,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:15,400 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:18,640 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:27,640 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,879 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. 10 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:37,800 Speaker 3: All right, we're going to turn to tech now. 11 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: Dan Ives of webbush raising his Apple price target from 12 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 1: three hundred dollars to three hundred and twenty five, writing quote, 13 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 1: we believe Apples heading into a multi year AI driven 14 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 1: iPhone upgrade cycle that is still being underestimated by the street. 15 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: Apple's on pace to reach the four trillion dollar market 16 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 1: cap threshold and be the first member of this exclusive club. 17 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 1: I'm so excited that Dan Ives joins us. Now, Dan, 18 00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:03,080 Speaker 1: thank you so much for spending part of your holiday 19 00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:06,119 Speaker 1: shortened week with us here at Bloomberg. So why now, 20 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:09,160 Speaker 1: why are rifting the price target now? This awkward week 21 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 1: between Christmas and New Year's and you said, I have 22 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:13,320 Speaker 1: a call to make Google. 23 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 4: Because the Bears they're in hibernation mood because they can't 24 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:17,640 Speaker 4: find AI in the spreadsheets. 25 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:19,040 Speaker 3: And look, we're doing the work. 26 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 4: What we see across the age of supply chain. I mean, 27 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 4: we're seeing strength, not just in the December. What I 28 00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 4: believe is going to be ultimately a record year for 29 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 4: Apple two hundred and forty million iPhone units. And that's why, Look, 30 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 4: this is going to be an AI driven supercycle that's 31 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 4: multi year, and. 32 00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 3: That's why I look, the hater they hated. 33 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 4: Two trillion, despised at three trillion, A four trillion can 34 00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 4: be yelling from the. 35 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:43,480 Speaker 3: Top of the mountains. 36 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:46,319 Speaker 1: You write your note that you estimate roughly three hundred 37 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 1: million iPhones globally have not upgraded. 38 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 5: Over four years. 39 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 1: So do you think this upgrade cycle is going to 40 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 1: be let out of necessity because people are just desperate 41 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 1: for a new phone, or it is it that AI 42 00:01:57,560 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 1: capability that Apple is starting to introduce. 43 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 4: I think about sixty seventy percent of it is that 44 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 4: is that you've gotten to the point now where that's 45 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 4: a pin up upgrade cycle that's really unprescedent in for 46 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 4: Apple prost Remember the install base that's increased two hundred 47 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:13,679 Speaker 4: million even over the last few years. So the install 48 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 4: base continues to be the golden goose of Cupertino. But 49 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:20,960 Speaker 4: the AI driven piece, it's just starting. That's why it's 50 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 4: to get out the popcorn moment because in our opinion, 51 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 4: the consumer AI revolution gooz through Cooper Tino and I think, look, 52 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 4: that's why the bears will talk about valuation like they 53 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:34,280 Speaker 4: have for years in Apple, it's about some of the 54 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:36,880 Speaker 4: parts about what AI adds to the story. 55 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 3: We think it's thirty to four hours per share. 56 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 1: How hard would it be though for the next upgrade cycle, 57 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:45,359 Speaker 1: especially if so much is driven now by software updates, 58 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:46,919 Speaker 1: the hardware hasn't really changed. 59 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 4: Well, I think that's an iPhone seventeen again, that will 60 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 4: be you know what we'll be seeing later this year, 61 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 4: you know, into twenty twenty five, that's actually gonna be 62 00:02:56,120 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 4: a hardware driven a new form factor that's really going 63 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:03,160 Speaker 4: to be AI driven. So that's why this is almost 64 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 4: it's a one two punch. It's sixteen into seventeen, and 65 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 4: that's why what makes this unique. It's it's about the 66 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:13,640 Speaker 4: increased services, and ultimately you have hundreds of apps right 67 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:15,800 Speaker 4: now in development that are going to be on top 68 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:20,240 Speaker 4: of Apple intelligence. And that's why the enterprise AI revolutions 69 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 4: the godfather of AI Jensen, a vidiot. 70 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 3: The consumer AI revolution goes to Coupertino. 71 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:28,400 Speaker 4: And I think that's why we could see four trillion 72 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 4: potentially you know today or Monday. 73 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:32,800 Speaker 1: One potential difficult spot or is it potential? Is a 74 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 1: difficult spot is China. How are you thinking about China, 75 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 1: especially with the fact that Apple needs to partner with 76 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:41,000 Speaker 1: a local company to introduce. 77 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 6: All of this. 78 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 4: Look Cook ten percent politician, ninety percent CEO, right, and 79 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 4: no one. 80 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 1: Understand might actually have to be more of a diplomat 81 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five ten percent and. 82 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 3: Maybe thirty percent seventy percent. 83 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 4: But the point is, look, it's what him and Mosk 84 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:57,280 Speaker 4: have had to navigate in terms of success in China. 85 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 4: But what I love about the cycle that probably gets 86 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 4: announced from the Chinese partner early in twenty twenty five, 87 00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:08,080 Speaker 4: it gets rolled down in April. So the China upgrade 88 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 4: cycle in terms of AI coming to China, that's when 89 00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 4: that happens in April. And this is just the beginning 90 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 4: of a multi year AI cycle that plays out from Apple. 91 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:22,640 Speaker 1: You also talk about Pollenteer and salesforce in your note. 92 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 1: I recently spoke to Mark Benioff about agent Force and 93 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:28,160 Speaker 1: this new iteration they introduced of agent force, and he 94 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 1: said it's the most exciting thing he's worked on in 95 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:34,279 Speaker 1: his entire career. Is that why you're so excited as well? 96 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:37,279 Speaker 4: And for context, I mean Bennioff, mount Rush Moore of 97 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 4: Tech right, but it speaks to our view. It's ten 98 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:43,719 Speaker 4: pm in this AI party that goes to four am, 99 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 4: and behind the velvet roops, Bennioff want to see his 100 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:48,480 Speaker 4: names on the list. Now, all of a sudden he's 101 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:51,680 Speaker 4: on the dance force. Software is let in now already 102 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 4: on the dance for From a use case perspective, is 103 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 4: the messy of AI Pollenteer and look that's one As 104 00:04:57,520 --> 00:05:01,120 Speaker 4: I say, the Bears can see AI in the spreadsheets. 105 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 4: That's how you know they hated pound Teer as a 106 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 4: teenager earlier this year. Despises a senior Cisten live in 107 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 4: Derry Beach at eighty three. But it's just the beginning 108 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 4: now of what I've viewsed the software age in AI. Salesforce, 109 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:19,599 Speaker 4: pound tier, and I think others like Mango. 110 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:21,479 Speaker 1: dB What name do you think we're gonna be talking 111 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 1: about next year that we're very quiet during twenty twenty four. 112 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:26,279 Speaker 5: You know, twenty twenty. 113 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 1: Four really was about Nvidia Tesla. 114 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:31,680 Speaker 3: What do you think will be the names of twenty 115 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:33,600 Speaker 3: twenty Yeah, I think there was continued to be. 116 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:36,440 Speaker 4: In terms of my view for large cap tech, I 117 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:39,600 Speaker 4: think up twenty five percent two that twenty five I 118 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 4: think what hasn't been on the radar, it's gonna be 119 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:47,600 Speaker 4: M and A software cybersecurity because with con done at 120 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:50,599 Speaker 4: the FTC, that nightmare, whether it's Ninemare and albm Street 121 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:53,160 Speaker 4: five thirteen, that's done for tech Now, I think you 122 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:55,240 Speaker 4: can see a lot of accelerated M and A when 123 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 4: it comes to software, when it comes to cybersecurity, and 124 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 4: I think that that is is what's going to weed 125 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 4: this AI cycle. 126 00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 3: And I think. 127 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 4: Specifically cybersecurity is an area that I believe could ultimately 128 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:09,159 Speaker 4: be one of the biggest outperformers when it comes. 129 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 1: To Another tech analyst joined me this week and said 130 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 1: the same thing. Twenty twenty five is all going to 131 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 1: be about cybersecurity. I want to end on Tesla overnight, 132 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 1: Elon Musk was clashing with a far right activist who 133 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:23,840 Speaker 1: has been close to President elect Trump, Laura Lumer, and 134 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:28,040 Speaker 1: the crux of the argument was out h one b visus. 135 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:32,359 Speaker 1: But this individual is also saying that Musk really isn't 136 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:35,119 Speaker 1: maga and yet he's so close to President elect Trump. 137 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:37,279 Speaker 1: Do you think there's a risk there actually that he 138 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 1: will lose that proximity to power, which you said was 139 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 1: one of the best bets of the Ages. 140 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:42,600 Speaker 3: Look, it's a bet for the Ages. 141 00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:45,640 Speaker 4: That's I think that bromance actually gets stronger between Musk 142 00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:50,479 Speaker 4: and Trump because my view is that Trump needs Musk 143 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 4: must needs Trump, and whether it's Ai, whether it's China, 144 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:58,599 Speaker 4: whether it's some of the policy in terms of Dage, 145 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 4: we're going to have these continued dust up. So this 146 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,240 Speaker 4: is gonna be a soap opera I think from Musk 147 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:05,839 Speaker 4: and Trump that continues to play out. But that is 148 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:08,719 Speaker 4: going to actually strengthen and it continues to be from Musk. 149 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 4: It's the best bet he ever made on Trump. 150 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 1: Okay, So this is just a flare up in an episode, 151 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:15,440 Speaker 1: not the season finale exactly. 152 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:19,600 Speaker 4: This is just one episode in a ten to twelve 153 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 4: partter on Netflix. 154 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 5: All right, Dan, i'ves have webbush. 155 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us this Friday. Thank 156 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:36,200 Speaker 1: you so much, Rob for joining us this Friday morning, 157 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 1: alongside of course Dan Greenhouse. Okay, so you say this 158 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:42,840 Speaker 1: is going to be challenging, but that was already on display. 159 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 1: I think last week we had basically three iterations of 160 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 1: potentially how they could avoid a government shutdown, and they 161 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:51,640 Speaker 1: did in the end. But what did the whole saga 162 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:55,600 Speaker 1: tell you about how Trump is going to govern even 163 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 1: with these majorities he has in the House in the Senate. 164 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:01,720 Speaker 5: Yeah, first of all, with you both, happy holidays. It 165 00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 5: showed us. 166 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 7: I think that when you burn institutions down, when you're 167 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 7: running on an anti institution campaign, then when you come 168 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 7: into office you can't then rely on those institutions to 169 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 7: do your bidding. 170 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:11,360 Speaker 5: Right. 171 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 7: It's the Republican House majority is a slim majority, and 172 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:17,840 Speaker 7: it's a disunified majority. It's going to be really hard 173 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 7: for Trump and especially for Speaker Mike Johnson if he 174 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 7: gets the gavel on January third, to really ensure that 175 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 7: they always have a majority vote. This isn't the days 176 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 7: of Nancy Pelosi where every Democrat stayed in line all 177 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:32,400 Speaker 7: the time. It's going to be hard to wrangle these folks. 178 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 3: Right. 179 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 1: Thirty eight Republicans voted against what Donald Trump wanted to 180 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 1: see actually enacted all that whole episode, though kind of 181 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 1: got brushed under the rug. What it said to me 182 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:47,560 Speaker 1: was that Speaker Johnson didn't have Trump's buying when he 183 00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 1: went to the floor with that deal that was negotiated 184 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 1: with Democrats. Do you think he's able to keep the gavel? 185 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 7: I think he probably is, mostly because I'm not quite 186 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 7: sure if there's anybody else who could win a majority 187 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 7: vote on January third for Speaker, I would think that 188 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:05,880 Speaker 7: the next most obvious pick would be Jim Jordan, who 189 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:08,839 Speaker 7: is even further right than Speaker Johnson, even closer to 190 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:10,160 Speaker 7: Trump than Speaker Johnson is. 191 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 5: But Speaker john Johnson has. 192 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 7: Done a very good job, and by and large he 193 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 7: really has had Donald Trump's support. Now you know Donald 194 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:20,439 Speaker 7: Trump is his agenda is going to be difficult to enact. 195 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:23,679 Speaker 7: He's certainly swinging for the fences. I think for Mike 196 00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:26,559 Speaker 7: Johnson as Speaker, it really is it's about. 197 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 5: The art of the possible right. 198 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 7: It's not he can't get everything down that Trump wants 199 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:31,719 Speaker 7: to get done, or at least he can't get done 200 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 7: as quickly as Trump would like. So what can he 201 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 7: do and what can he have Trump's buy and for 202 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:38,520 Speaker 7: if he has negotiator or cooperate a little bit. 203 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 8: I agree with a lot of what you're saying, and 204 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:44,679 Speaker 8: I think the average investor isn't aware. We know it's 205 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 8: a raise within the majority right now, a couple of seats. 206 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:49,959 Speaker 8: Obviously some people are departing to leave to be in 207 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:53,160 Speaker 8: the administration, and obviously Matt Gates is leaving Congress in general. 208 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 5: But I don't think people are. 209 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:58,079 Speaker 8: Aware when the TCGA passed, Republic's at two hundred and 210 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:02,200 Speaker 8: forty or so seats, much larger majority, and so forget 211 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:05,720 Speaker 8: even the ideological differences that the chip Roy group, if 212 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 8: you will, exhibits, just mathematically, it's going to be really 213 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 8: difficult when you can have one or two or three 214 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 8: Republicans banding together to not pass no tax on tips 215 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:16,640 Speaker 8: or whatever it is that the administration wants to do. 216 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:20,920 Speaker 8: Has Republican leadership talked about how to overcome that hurdle? 217 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:23,079 Speaker 7: Well, I think first of all, they're writing on a 218 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:24,760 Speaker 7: few more seats to be filled. It's your point to 219 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 7: have a slightly larger majority after some of these special 220 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:30,680 Speaker 7: elections are run and seats are filled. But you know, 221 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 7: I really think it's going to be a question of 222 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:34,800 Speaker 7: muddling through, right, And this is kind of the issue 223 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:38,400 Speaker 7: generally speaking. Congress is not built for, you know, big 224 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:41,839 Speaker 7: fast change, and it's especially try definition, but by definition exactly, 225 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:45,760 Speaker 7: I mean, that's the whole point. And with Republicans having 226 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 7: such a small majority not only in the House but 227 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:50,199 Speaker 7: also in the Senate, and certainly not having the sixty 228 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 7: boat majority in the sense that they would need to 229 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:55,200 Speaker 7: unilaterally pass legislation, I mean, it's going to be really challenging. 230 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:56,800 Speaker 7: And I think that that's one of the reasons why 231 00:10:56,800 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 7: we're not seeing TCJ extension talked about in Q one. Right, 232 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:03,680 Speaker 7: it's going to take a while conversation and negotiation within 233 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 7: the Republican caucus to get that done. 234 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:07,760 Speaker 5: Over you Q three, Q. 235 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:11,160 Speaker 1: Four, every Congressman and every congressman basically becomes king or 236 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:13,800 Speaker 1: Queen of the Hill in essence. I think of one 237 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 1: person in particular, Congressman Lawler of New York, who basically 238 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 1: is saying, I'm not going to vote for anything unless 239 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 1: salts included because he also wants to run for governor 240 00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:26,040 Speaker 1: of New York. I think, wink wink. I think he 241 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 1: pretty much said that in his Christmas Hanukkah message. So, 242 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:34,559 Speaker 1: when you have individuals that are so tethered to specific issues, 243 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:38,000 Speaker 1: is there in your mind five issues that must be 244 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:41,320 Speaker 1: included in TCJA in order for it to meet the 245 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 1: demands of all these different vying factions. 246 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:46,400 Speaker 7: Well, I think when push comes to shove, the worst 247 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:49,160 Speaker 7: case for Republicans is we will see a clean TCJA extension. 248 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:51,960 Speaker 7: So if we get to Q four and there hasn't 249 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:54,760 Speaker 7: been an agreement reach in base case, base case, we 250 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 7: get TCJA extension, clean skinny. I mean that's essentially what 251 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:00,320 Speaker 7: just happened with that the budget negotiations end, you know 252 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:03,560 Speaker 7: last week, is that there was all of this discussion 253 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 7: of you know, riders and add ons and this kind 254 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 7: of major Christmas tree bill with a bunch of stuff, 255 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 7: you know, individuals, preferences and priorities. 256 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:12,080 Speaker 5: None of that was in the final bill. 257 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 7: There was some farm et cetera extension of the Farm bill, 258 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:18,680 Speaker 7: but mostly it's like the lowest common denominator is the 259 00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:22,839 Speaker 7: clean skinny package. And given that TCJA for individuals ends 260 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 7: end of twenty twenty five. I think that the absolute 261 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 7: necessity in our base cases, the Republicans will pass an extension. 262 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:32,200 Speaker 7: Now the question is what in addition do they pass. 263 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:34,600 Speaker 7: Is that no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, 264 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:38,120 Speaker 7: the salt you know, extension or relief. I think all 265 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 7: of that will be part of the broader negotiation, but 266 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:41,520 Speaker 7: much harder to get done. 267 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 8: With the same commerce for the same reason as we 268 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:45,160 Speaker 8: just discussed. I don't know how you do any of 269 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 8: the other things. There's no built in constituency in Congress. 270 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:51,319 Speaker 8: It's not as if we've spent years building up an 271 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 8: argument for no tax on tips or whatever it might be. 272 00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:57,360 Speaker 8: So to your point about the TCGA clean extension being 273 00:12:57,400 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 8: the base case, I think that's almost your only outcome. 274 00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:02,200 Speaker 8: It's your bear, it's your base, and you it's your 275 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:05,160 Speaker 8: bull outcome, because I just don't see how when you 276 00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:08,439 Speaker 8: have two Republicans that want one thing and four Republicans 277 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 8: that are against that but for something else. I just 278 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 8: don't know how you come to any sort of an 279 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 8: agreement on anything, especially if you're going to try to 280 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 8: get two reconciliation bills in this year. So I think 281 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 8: that's your base, your bull and your bare outcome. I 282 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 8: don't think there's any conversation at all. 283 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 7: Yeah, I totally agree. Congressman Lawler and others will certainly 284 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 7: be talking about salt, and I think that there's a 285 00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 7: small chance we could see a doubling of the saltcat 286 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:30,400 Speaker 7: from ten. 287 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:30,960 Speaker 5: To twenty thousand. 288 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 8: Sure, the marriage penalty, but other. 289 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:35,640 Speaker 7: Than that, I think it is fair to say that 290 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:39,559 Speaker 7: is the skinny bill. You know, this simple answer is 291 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 7: probably going to be the most likely answer throughout this 292 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:44,040 Speaker 7: next Congress, because the bottom line. 293 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:46,680 Speaker 5: Is I totally agree. Once you, you know, try and 294 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:47,560 Speaker 5: bring a few folks. 295 00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:48,839 Speaker 7: On one side, you're going to lose folks on the 296 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 7: other side, and so it winds up just being again 297 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:53,840 Speaker 7: the art of the possible. What can Mike Johnson convince 298 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:57,640 Speaker 7: President Elect Donald Trump is good enough, is enough of 299 00:13:57,679 --> 00:13:59,680 Speaker 7: his agenda to get through? And what can he convinces 300 00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:00,440 Speaker 7: caucus to vote for. 301 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:02,280 Speaker 1: Okay, I want to talk to you about the fight 302 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 1: that was looming yesterday on Twitter. I'm not sure if 303 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 1: you saw it. 304 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 5: It was between Laura. 305 00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:09,120 Speaker 1: Lumers, actually a ton of other people. I know Dan 306 00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:11,920 Speaker 1: you also saw it. So basically Mosk and the far 307 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 1: right at the end of the day are arguing over 308 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:16,839 Speaker 1: immigration and H one B VISs. Where do you think 309 00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 1: Trump comes down on this issue? 310 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 7: Well, I think Trump his focus first and foremost is 311 00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:24,520 Speaker 7: on the border. So it's not say he hasn't thought 312 00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 7: about the H one B question that you know, skilled 313 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 7: immigrants coming question. It is not his first priority, right 314 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:33,840 Speaker 7: he wants to secure the southern border if he. 315 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 1: Wants, not his but the priority of many people he's 316 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:37,520 Speaker 1: putting in the administration. 317 00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:40,640 Speaker 7: Yeah, exactly, I totally agree, and frankly the priority of 318 00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 7: you know, his base that got him elected not once 319 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:46,000 Speaker 7: but twice. And so you know, I don't think he 320 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:48,400 Speaker 7: has on the H one B question. 321 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 5: It's not going to be his priority. 322 00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:52,320 Speaker 7: It's clear that it's you know, Ramaswamian and Musk want 323 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 7: to talk about it. And it is again another example 324 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 7: of a rift we're seeing in this kind of bigger 325 00:14:57,520 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 7: tent Republican party. 326 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 8: So for the viewers that made be as online as 327 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 8: we are, just to clarify, there is this debate going 328 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:07,000 Speaker 8: on among what we call the right right that wants 329 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 8: to restrict immigration in a broad sense, and what has 330 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 8: been known now is the tech right, the elon Musk 331 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 8: world that agrees in general with the idea of restricting 332 00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:19,120 Speaker 8: immigration large but also wants to increase the availability of 333 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 8: these h one bvss that provide for the quote unquote 334 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 8: skilled immigration, and those two worlds are clashing. For some reason, 335 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 8: it happened over the weekend. I guess the vek Ramaswami 336 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:31,680 Speaker 8: got involved. I would agree that I don't know that 337 00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 8: the President Electroump has spent too much time thinking about 338 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 8: the nuances of this, but he has spoken in the 339 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:40,360 Speaker 8: past about the need for skilled immigration. He wants to 340 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 8: make it possible for those people to come here. I 341 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:45,480 Speaker 8: think while this is a fun online conversation, I think 342 00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:48,880 Speaker 8: the skilled immigration argument is going to win out because 343 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 8: you do have Musk sitting in such an important position 344 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 8: next to the president. You have had the President discussing 345 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:57,560 Speaker 8: the need for skilled immigration, and it does provide for 346 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 8: the masses something of a buifer case. So you don't 347 00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 8: look as restrictive by saying, listen, we just want to 348 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:06,400 Speaker 8: close the border to your point, but we also want 349 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:08,880 Speaker 8: the skilled people to come here. Is that not where 350 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 8: this settles out? 351 00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 5: Well. 352 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:13,480 Speaker 7: I think it is probably the hope for Donald Trump 353 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:15,520 Speaker 7: and an Elon muskets that's right, that's kind of your 354 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:18,920 Speaker 7: perfect miss, it's your best. We're going to close the border, 355 00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:20,840 Speaker 7: but we're also going to allow the best and the 356 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:24,120 Speaker 7: brightest into the country to propel our economy forward. The 357 00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:26,560 Speaker 7: issue is that's just not how the far right sees it, right, 358 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 7: and so I actually think that changes to the H 359 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 7: and B programmer are going to be harder or I 360 00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:34,600 Speaker 7: should say, easier said than done. Right, it makes sense 361 00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 7: to many of us, it makes sense in the context 362 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 7: of the economy as it sits today. Certainly you can 363 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 7: have both, right, you can close the border, you can 364 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 7: also allow that the most skilled in that there's no 365 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 7: sort of internal disagreement there. But the issue is, I 366 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 7: think MAGA Republicans it's not what they want, right. And 367 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:55,080 Speaker 7: while Trump doesn't have to get re elected in four years, 368 00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:58,040 Speaker 7: you can't get re elected in four years. House Republicans 369 00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 7: have to get relected in two years. Center replt have 370 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 7: to get relected two, four and six years from now, 371 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:05,119 Speaker 7: so they have to answer to the MAGA device. 372 00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:07,640 Speaker 1: And you made a great point. Musk is definitely not 373 00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 1: in this far right Laura Lumer camp. He's battling them 374 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:14,159 Speaker 1: for those that maybe are just kicking up online on 375 00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 1: exactly what happened overnight. So let's talk about January. We 376 00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:24,120 Speaker 1: have sixty seconds sequencing immigration, tax policy, tariffs one two three. 377 00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:26,760 Speaker 7: I think, so we'll get the first reconcilation package will 378 00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:30,159 Speaker 7: be immigration and energy. I think the second sort of 379 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 7: big conversational that we're already having it now here is tariffs. 380 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 5: It's probably Europe. 381 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:39,199 Speaker 7: Early, China, I mean early, but most importantly backloaded and 382 00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:42,640 Speaker 7: very high on and targeted on specific sectors. And then 383 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 7: the tax question is going to be two h And 384 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 7: the bottom line is it's because that Republicans don't have 385 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:50,560 Speaker 7: the package around which they can form a majority. 386 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:53,719 Speaker 1: Today, Bobcasey, thank you so much for joining us this morning, 387 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:56,920 Speaker 1: and happy holidays and happy twenty twenty five. Rob Casey 388 00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 1: of Signum Global Advisors. Chuck Lieberman of Advisor's Capital Management, 389 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:14,679 Speaker 1: writing this, the economic environment should be slightly positive for 390 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:18,639 Speaker 1: socks and slightly negative for long term bonds. Inflation prospects 391 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:22,400 Speaker 1: could easily worsen between tariffs and immigration policy, which would 392 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:26,439 Speaker 1: freeze monetary policy for some period, but longer term rates 393 00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:28,679 Speaker 1: would increase. We're hearing a lot of this, Chuck, and 394 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:30,560 Speaker 1: he joins us. Now, Chuck, thank you for spending your 395 00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:33,159 Speaker 1: Friday morning with you. Happy holidays and New Year to you. 396 00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:36,320 Speaker 1: So how are you thinking about the start of twenty 397 00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:40,520 Speaker 1: twenty five, especially when policy things like tariffs immigration are 398 00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:43,919 Speaker 1: going to be so important to how the bond market trades. 399 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 6: Absolutely right, Emory, I agree with you. Happy holidays to 400 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:52,560 Speaker 6: you as well. In my judgment, there are things to 401 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:57,360 Speaker 6: be nervous about. The possibility of tariffs will obviously increase 402 00:18:57,400 --> 00:19:02,040 Speaker 6: prices for domestic consumers, potentially a really big negative when 403 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:04,720 Speaker 6: the Fed is trying very hard to bring inflation back 404 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:08,679 Speaker 6: to two percent. We also have concerns about the labor market. 405 00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:13,400 Speaker 6: Job growth has been pretty good, but if immigration policy 406 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:18,479 Speaker 6: changes and President Trump actually removes people from the US 407 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:22,359 Speaker 6: who came in illegally but nonetheless are working, that's going 408 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:25,200 Speaker 6: to reduce our labor supply, which will drive up labor 409 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:28,399 Speaker 6: costs and also inflation. So there are reasons to be 410 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:31,200 Speaker 6: concerned about the prospects for inflation when it. 411 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:34,320 Speaker 1: Comes to inflation and tariffs. Do you think this is 412 00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:37,000 Speaker 1: a one off hit or could this be more pervasive? 413 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:42,200 Speaker 6: Well, it initially is largely one off, but it then 414 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 6: tends to spread through the system. When you have a 415 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:50,040 Speaker 6: single autocontract, for example, that's negotiated between the UAW and 416 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 6: the auto companies, it's a one off thing and it 417 00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:57,800 Speaker 6: pertains just to that industry, but nonetheless everyone else is watching. 418 00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:02,240 Speaker 6: Everyone else is looking, and many other workers labor unions 419 00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:04,919 Speaker 6: get ideas that they can also push for ten percent 420 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:08,360 Speaker 6: increases for four years in a row. That's a large increase, 421 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:12,240 Speaker 6: and so it does tend to transmit through the system. 422 00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:15,440 Speaker 1: So what do you make in terms of FED policy 423 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:18,359 Speaker 1: with this kind of fiscal environment. 424 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 6: Well, I think the FED wanted to get rates down 425 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:28,120 Speaker 6: while they could, and so they sort of rushed. They 426 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:30,440 Speaker 6: did fifty and then twenty five and then twenty five, 427 00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:33,840 Speaker 6: so they reduced rates by four hundred basis points. But 428 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:36,920 Speaker 6: the market is looking at the economy, and the market 429 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:40,359 Speaker 6: is seeing that the economy is not weak. If you 430 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:43,359 Speaker 6: recall a year ago, a lot of people were forecasting recession. 431 00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:48,679 Speaker 6: Obviously that didn't happen. In fact, growth is well above potential, 432 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:52,320 Speaker 6: and it becomes even further above potential if we have 433 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:56,160 Speaker 6: fewer workers because we are getting illegal immigrants to leave 434 00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:58,720 Speaker 6: the country. So no matter how you slice it, I 435 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:03,400 Speaker 6: think we've got inflation risk out there, the economy will 436 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:06,720 Speaker 6: probably grow more slowly. If you can't hire, you can't 437 00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:09,399 Speaker 6: expand the economy as quickly, So we could have a 438 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:14,320 Speaker 6: very unusual combination of moderation and growth, yet upward pressure 439 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:14,880 Speaker 6: on inflation. 440 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:18,879 Speaker 1: Doing the set at the moment is restrictive. 441 00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:25,359 Speaker 6: No, very Simply what I look at is not overnight money, 442 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 6: because if you look at overnight money relative to inflation, 443 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:31,840 Speaker 6: you can make a case that the funds rate is 444 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:36,280 Speaker 6: roughly on average where it belongs historically. You have a 445 00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:38,360 Speaker 6: much much tougher case when you look at the ten 446 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:41,760 Speaker 6: year at a four to sixty yield, with inflation in 447 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:45,919 Speaker 6: the ballpark of let's say two sixty. I'm being a 448 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 6: little bit generous here. You have the two hundred basis 449 00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:55,840 Speaker 6: points over inflation. Historically it's been more like two point fifty. 450 00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:59,880 Speaker 6: So in my judgment, interest rates are not a bar 451 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:06,360 Speaker 6: to investment to spending, and we see very strong corporate 452 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:11,639 Speaker 6: issuance of debt in the marketplace because corporations see prevailing 453 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:13,080 Speaker 6: interest rates is attractive. 454 00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:17,680 Speaker 1: So when you put all of this together, potentially inflationary policies, 455 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,000 Speaker 1: you don't think the FED is restrictive. Do you think 456 00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:21,840 Speaker 1: we could see a twenty twenty five when the Fed 457 00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:25,600 Speaker 1: is actually not just on pause but maybe raising interest rates. 458 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:29,000 Speaker 6: Yes, but not in the early part of the year. 459 00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:31,240 Speaker 6: In the early part of the year, the Fed is 460 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:35,040 Speaker 6: going to wait to see what happens with policy, with tariffs, 461 00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:38,600 Speaker 6: with immigration policy. They'll look at the growth rate of 462 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:42,240 Speaker 6: the economy, and they will wait. They can afford to wait. 463 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:45,760 Speaker 6: There's no reason for them to rush ahead to lower 464 00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:50,080 Speaker 6: rates anymore, and they have good reason to regret, shall 465 00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:52,640 Speaker 6: we say, having lowered rates as much as they have. 466 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,439 Speaker 6: But I expect them to be on pause for a while, 467 00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,960 Speaker 6: and then it depends very much on how things play out. 468 00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:03,679 Speaker 1: Chuck, thank you so much for your time this morning. 469 00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:06,760 Speaker 1: Happy and healthy twenty twenty five to you, Chuck Lieberman 470 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:08,320 Speaker 1: of Advisor's Capital Management. 471 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:12,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best 472 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:15,920 Speaker 2: in markets, economics, and geopolitics. You can watch the show 473 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,879 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am to 474 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 2: nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify 475 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,159 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and as always on the 476 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,600 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.