1
00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:08,799
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. We got seed by

2
00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:13,040
Speaker 1: Schley's bags. I know him well. That are very outside

3
00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:15,880
Speaker 1: country China centric, but outside country centric.

4
00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:19,200
Speaker 2: Where were you when the opinion was finally announced today?

5
00:00:19,520 --> 00:00:21,040
Speaker 3: Where else? On a conference call?

6
00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:24,960
Speaker 2: Rick Woldenberg is the CEO of a toy company called

7
00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:29,480
Speaker 2: Learning Resources, a company that sued the Trump administration over

8
00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:33,400
Speaker 2: its signature tariff policy back in April. The case went

9
00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:37,279
Speaker 2: all the way to the Supreme Court. Rick wasn't expecting

10
00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:40,760
Speaker 2: the court to issue its opinion today. Rick Son, who

11
00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:43,639
Speaker 2: also works for the company, broke the news and he.

12
00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:46,400
Speaker 3: Said, hold on, hold on, we just won the case.

13
00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:49,199
Speaker 2: In a six to three ruling, the court sided with

14
00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:52,680
Speaker 2: Rick and his fellow plaintiffs, declaring many of the presidents

15
00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:56,600
Speaker 2: sweeping tariffs illegal. It also said the court didn't have

16
00:00:56,720 --> 00:01:01,680
Speaker 2: jurisdiction over Rick's particular case, a technicalcality, but he calls

17
00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:03,880
Speaker 2: that a footnote to history.

18
00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:07,240
Speaker 3: A lot of times when history is made, you don't realize, hey,

19
00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:11,040
Speaker 3: I just made history. But in this case, from the beginning,

20
00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:14,800
Speaker 3: we knew we were involved in something that would have

21
00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:19,160
Speaker 3: a long tail and would affect the trajectory of our country.

22
00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:22,679
Speaker 2: The Supreme Court's decision was a direct rebuke of President

23
00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:27,000
Speaker 2: Donald Trump's attempts to use broad emergency powers to reshape

24
00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:30,840
Speaker 2: global trade. It reaffirmed that only Congress has the power

25
00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,119
Speaker 2: to impose tariffs during peacetime.

26
00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:37,600
Speaker 1: I'm ashamed of certain members of the court, absolutely ashamed

27
00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:40,520
Speaker 1: for not having the courage to do what's right for

28
00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:41,560
Speaker 1: our country.

29
00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:44,440
Speaker 2: Trump called a press conference to respond to the decision,

30
00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:47,520
Speaker 2: where he vowed to sign an immediate order imposing a

31
00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:51,800
Speaker 2: new ten percent global tariff using a different legal authority.

32
00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:56,960
Speaker 1: We have alternatives. Great alternatives. Could be more money. We'll

33
00:01:56,960 --> 00:01:58,280
Speaker 1: take in more money, but.

34
00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:02,200
Speaker 2: What comes next is less. The Supreme Court didn't give

35
00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:04,640
Speaker 2: guidance on what happens to the tariffs that have already

36
00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:07,520
Speaker 2: been collected, which Trump addressed in a question from a

37
00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:09,079
Speaker 2: reporter at his press conference.

38
00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:11,440
Speaker 1: Wouldn't you think they would have put one sentence in

39
00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:14,799
Speaker 1: there saying that keep the money or don't keep the money? Right,

40
00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:17,400
Speaker 1: I guess it has to get litigated for the next

41
00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:18,000
Speaker 1: two years.

42
00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:23,000
Speaker 3: This reversed segears guys, and give him my money back.

43
00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:27,840
Speaker 3: The US government sends out millions of tax refunds a year,

44
00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:30,480
Speaker 3: and no one when they opened the check goes, oh

45
00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:34,399
Speaker 3: my god, how did they do that. That's a marvel.

46
00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:37,519
Speaker 3: They know how to do it. They can do it.

47
00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:39,240
Speaker 3: It's our money, give it back.

48
00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:44,000
Speaker 2: I'm Sarah Holder, and this is the big take for

49
00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:47,840
Speaker 2: Bloomberg News today on the show. The Supreme Court rules

50
00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:52,560
Speaker 2: against Trump on tariffs. But the decision means for consumers, businesses,

51
00:02:52,639 --> 00:03:00,000
Speaker 2: global trade, and presidential power. This Supreme Court, to say,

52
00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:03,840
Speaker 2: has been highly anticipated, both because President Trump's use of

53
00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:06,639
Speaker 2: tariffs is such an important piece of his economic policy

54
00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:09,600
Speaker 2: and because it's seen as yet another way he sought

55
00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:11,919
Speaker 2: to expand his powers as president.

56
00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:15,160
Speaker 4: It's really a huge blow. President Trump stood out in

57
00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:17,920
Speaker 4: the Rose Garden a little over ten months ago and

58
00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:21,720
Speaker 4: told us that that tariffs were going to essentially revitalize

59
00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:25,680
Speaker 4: American manufacturing, which has been in about a three decade

60
00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:29,280
Speaker 4: downward spiral. This was going to create jobs, This was

61
00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:33,160
Speaker 4: going to level the playing field with trading partners that

62
00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:37,080
Speaker 4: he said were cheating the US in the global trading system.

63
00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:41,200
Speaker 2: Brendon Murray oversees Bloomberg's global trade coverage.

64
00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:45,520
Speaker 4: And so he embarked on this campaign to issue these

65
00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:49,880
Speaker 4: tariffs broadly, often pretty much at his own discretion on

66
00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:56,000
Speaker 4: everything from countries that he disagreed with their geopolitical decisions

67
00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:59,839
Speaker 4: to countries that you know, he thought had a bureaucratic

68
00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:03,440
Speaker 4: problems with the way they were treating American companies in

69
00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:06,840
Speaker 4: the case of Canada. So striking this down is a

70
00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:09,720
Speaker 4: big blow to the president. He has based his entire

71
00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:14,960
Speaker 4: economic and geopolitical foreign policy agenda on tariffs and his

72
00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:16,279
Speaker 4: ability to use them at will.

73
00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:20,120
Speaker 2: The Supreme Court didn't say that President Trump can't impose

74
00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:23,120
Speaker 2: any tariffs. This case was about the way Trump has

75
00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,200
Speaker 2: justified imposing many of the tariffs he's put in place

76
00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:29,400
Speaker 2: since returning to office. He's leaned on a law called

77
00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:34,160
Speaker 2: the International Emergency Economic Powers Act or iep up. Here's

78
00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:36,440
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Supreme Court reporter Greg Storr.

79
00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:40,880
Speaker 5: This nineteen seventy seven law gives the president certain powers

80
00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:44,240
Speaker 5: in the case of economic emergencies, and that law doesn't

81
00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:47,080
Speaker 5: mention tariffs. But the President has said it gives an

82
00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:51,359
Speaker 5: authority to enact these sweeping tariffs, and that includes his

83
00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:54,080
Speaker 5: so called reciprocal tariffs that he announced on what he

84
00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:57,200
Speaker 5: described as Liberation Day in April. And what the Supreme

85
00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:00,600
Speaker 5: Court said today was that law does not give the

86
00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:05,160
Speaker 5: president authority to imposed tariffs, and so it means that

87
00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:09,320
Speaker 5: all the tariffs he imposed under that law are now invalid.

88
00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:12,479
Speaker 5: Left open some other questions like what about refund for

89
00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:15,479
Speaker 5: people who paid them? Lower courts will decide that. And

90
00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:18,560
Speaker 5: it didn't knock out other forms of authority that he

91
00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:22,120
Speaker 5: has also asserted, but it knocked out the biggest single

92
00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:24,200
Speaker 5: pillar in his tariff policy.

93
00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:27,280
Speaker 2: And there was dissent among the justices. Right, this was

94
00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:32,000
Speaker 2: a six' to three. Opinion what was the substance of the, Disagreement, well.

95
00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:34,800
Speaker 5: The core question was whether this statute could be read

96
00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:38,240
Speaker 5: to include tariff. Powers AS i, said it doesn't mention the,

97
00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:41,960
Speaker 5: word but it does have a phrase that says The

98
00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:47,159
Speaker 5: president during these economic emergencies may regulate. Importation and that

99
00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:49,880
Speaker 5: was really kind of the key legal question for the

100
00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:52,320
Speaker 5: court was whether that could be read or should be

101
00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:56,320
Speaker 5: read to encompass the authority to impose. Tariffs and so

102
00:05:56,360 --> 00:06:01,040
Speaker 5: the three dissenters said, yes that regulating importation includes, tariffs

103
00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:03,960
Speaker 5: and the, majority although they splintered a little bit in their,

104
00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:08,000
Speaker 5: reasoning essentially, said, look If congress wants to give the

105
00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:11,520
Speaker 5: power to impose tariffs to the, president keep in mind

106
00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:15,040
Speaker 5: by the way The constitution, says It's congress's. Power but

107
00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:17,560
Speaker 5: If congress wants to give the president that, power the

108
00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:21,560
Speaker 5: majority said it knows how to do that, explicitly and

109
00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:24,599
Speaker 5: it didn't do that in this, statute and so we're

110
00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:26,520
Speaker 5: not going to read it in a way that gives

111
00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:28,160
Speaker 5: the president such expansive.

112
00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:30,719
Speaker 2: Authority, Well, greg one of the big things that The

113
00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:33,159
Speaker 2: court didn't weigh in, on which you alluded, to is

114
00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:35,440
Speaker 2: the issue of, refunds whether or not the money that

115
00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:38,240
Speaker 2: has already been collected under these tariffs will now have

116
00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:40,800
Speaker 2: to be returned to the companies that have paid. It

117
00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:43,800
Speaker 2: tell me a bit about this decision not to weigh

118
00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:45,840
Speaker 2: in on, refunds right. Now why did they do, that

119
00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:46,719
Speaker 2: at least.

120
00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:49,000
Speaker 5: As a formal. Matter it wasn't really in front of.

121
00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:51,680
Speaker 5: Them they talked about it during the arguments because they

122
00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:55,000
Speaker 5: were interested in what the consequences of their decision would

123
00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:58,039
Speaker 5: be if they struck down the, tariffs but nobody was

124
00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:00,120
Speaker 5: asking them to rule on, that and perhaps more more,

125
00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:04,599
Speaker 5: importantly no lower court had said anything about how refunds would.

126
00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:07,679
Speaker 5: Work that's the kind of situation where The Supreme court

127
00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:10,640
Speaker 5: normally doesn't like to be the first one to weigh.

128
00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:13,600
Speaker 5: In they want to let lower courts deal with stuff,

129
00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:18,040
Speaker 5: first and SO i would have been quite surprised if

130
00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:22,080
Speaker 5: they had said something about, refunds just because it would

131
00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:23,280
Speaker 5: have been so unusual for.

132
00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:27,640
Speaker 2: Them Brendon trump has vowed to replace these tariffs with new.

133
00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:29,760
Speaker 2: Ones what are his options?

134
00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:33,960
Speaker 4: Here if you dial this back twelve months ago or,

135
00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:37,040
Speaker 4: so when the second term, began there were people in

136
00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:40,080
Speaker 4: the administration who wanted to go this other, route this

137
00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:43,720
Speaker 4: more legally sound, route and not to come out with

138
00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:48,040
Speaker 4: THESE aepa tariffs that they would be. Challenged and so

139
00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:51,440
Speaker 4: there is a playbook for what comes, next and they

140
00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:54,960
Speaker 4: can try to replicate the tariff wall that he's built

141
00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:57,960
Speaker 4: around THE us. Economy it just may be more of

142
00:07:58,040 --> 00:08:03,160
Speaker 4: a patchwork process than a broad use of tariffs the

143
00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:05,840
Speaker 4: way he's done so Since april of last. Year the

144
00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:09,880
Speaker 4: one that most people point, to Including Bloomberg, economics is

145
00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:12,920
Speaker 4: this what they Call section one point twenty. Two this

146
00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:18,080
Speaker 4: is an authority that they can use to address trade deficit, problems,

147
00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:21,960
Speaker 4: imbalances but it only goes up to fifteen. Percent you,

148
00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:26,000
Speaker 4: know there are some countries whose apatero's now. Illegal you,

149
00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:28,760
Speaker 4: know we're over fifteen, percent so they can go up

150
00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:31,760
Speaker 4: to fifteen, percent and it's capped at one hundred and fifty,

151
00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:36,960
Speaker 4: days and so they're temporary and they need congressional authorization

152
00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:39,840
Speaker 4: to be. Extended so this is just one of the

153
00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:43,679
Speaker 4: examples of the ways that The trump administration can kind

154
00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:46,960
Speaker 4: of create a bridge to buy themselves some.

155
00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:51,520
Speaker 2: Time given the uncertainty about how this will impact trade

156
00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:55,600
Speaker 2: policy moving forward at this, juncture have markets reacted to

157
00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:56,040
Speaker 2: the news.

158
00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:58,480
Speaker 4: Yet markets don't really know what to make of it.

159
00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:02,360
Speaker 4: Yet it seems to be good for the stocks of

160
00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:04,800
Speaker 4: companies that have paid a lot of tariffs that they

161
00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:08,400
Speaker 4: will presumably get some refunds over the next six to

162
00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:12,120
Speaker 4: twelve months or, so but there's also a realization that

163
00:09:12,280 --> 00:09:14,400
Speaker 4: tariffs aren't going, away and there's going to be some

164
00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:17,800
Speaker 4: uncertainty about how this next wave of them will be.

165
00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:22,640
Speaker 4: Administered and so companies don't like. Uncertainty they tend to

166
00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:27,080
Speaker 4: sit on their, hands not, invest not, Hire consumers tend

167
00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:30,880
Speaker 4: to sort of reign in their. Spending so the markets

168
00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:33,520
Speaker 4: don't really know what to make of it just. Yet

169
00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:35,400
Speaker 4: there's a lot of trying to wait and see what

170
00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:36,320
Speaker 4: the president's going to do.

171
00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:41,560
Speaker 2: Next so what will the president do, next what new

172
00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:45,080
Speaker 2: tariffs might he? Impose and will THE us government have

173
00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:46,520
Speaker 2: to refund the money it's.

174
00:09:46,559 --> 00:10:01,199
Speaker 6: Collected that's after the break, greg after the decision.

175
00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:06,559
Speaker 2: Today what actually happens? Next are the impacted tariffs immediately removed.

176
00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:10,520
Speaker 5: In terms of seeing an immediate practical impact where goods

177
00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:13,800
Speaker 5: start coming into the country without those. Tariffs we have

178
00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:16,480
Speaker 5: to wait to see exactly what. Happens but they are,

179
00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:19,920
Speaker 5: unlawful the ones that have been, imposed and it, does

180
00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:25,560
Speaker 5: as we've, alluded to trigger this refund. Process that has

181
00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:29,800
Speaker 5: some questions to, it for, sure but everybody who paid

182
00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:33,840
Speaker 5: one of those tariffs so far can SAY i shouldn't

183
00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:35,839
Speaker 5: have had to pay. It that was, illegal.

184
00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:39,200
Speaker 2: Right you said that the lower courts will have to

185
00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:43,880
Speaker 2: decide on that question of how the tariff refund process.

186
00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:46,520
Speaker 2: Goes In kavno's, descent he said the process would likely

187
00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:49,960
Speaker 2: be a quote. Mess is there any precedent for refunding

188
00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:52,200
Speaker 2: tariffs like? This and how much of a mess could

189
00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:52,680
Speaker 2: it actually?

190
00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:55,800
Speaker 5: Be so THAT i want to be a little cautious

191
00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:58,559
Speaker 5: because it really remains to be. Seen there are some,

192
00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:03,520
Speaker 5: precedents not on, terraffs but there was this tax known

193
00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:07,079
Speaker 5: as the harbor maintenance tax back in the late nineteen,

194
00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:11,360
Speaker 5: nineties where there was a process for refunding very large

195
00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:14,480
Speaker 5: sums of, money not this. Big so this is all

196
00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:17,360
Speaker 5: going to go forward in a specialized court known as

197
00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:21,800
Speaker 5: The court Of International. Trade they do have procedures for

198
00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:27,040
Speaker 5: dealing with, refunds and they're very familiar with, tariffs but

199
00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:31,400
Speaker 5: there will undoubtedly still be a lot of questions among other.

200
00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:37,280
Speaker 5: Things you, know some tariffs were paid almost a year,

201
00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:40,360
Speaker 5: ago and they may be in a slightly different boat

202
00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:44,080
Speaker 5: than tariffs that were paid last. WEEK a number of,

203
00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:48,080
Speaker 5: companies about fifteen, hundred according to my Colleague Zoe, tillman

204
00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:52,800
Speaker 5: have sort of preemptively filed claim saying we're entitled to

205
00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:59,920
Speaker 5: a bunch of. Refunds that doesn't preclude other payers from

206
00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:03,720
Speaker 5: claiming those refunds as. Well and it's not yet clear

207
00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:07,520
Speaker 5: that what argument The trump administration might, make if, anything

208
00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:10,120
Speaker 5: for saying that some or all these people are not

209
00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:14,720
Speaker 5: entitled to. Refunds at the, moment it looks like at

210
00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:17,360
Speaker 5: least most of those folks are in line for. Refunds

211
00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:20,199
Speaker 5: but it's going to take a while to play it

212
00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:21,000
Speaker 5: for things to play.

213
00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:24,760
Speaker 2: Out so that's what this decision might mean for. Companies But,

214
00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:29,240
Speaker 2: brendan should consumers expect lower prices on the goods that

215
00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:32,080
Speaker 2: were impacted to the extent that companies raised prices as

216
00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:34,679
Speaker 2: a result of these, tariffs is it likely that they'll

217
00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:35,439
Speaker 2: lower them?

218
00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:38,680
Speaker 4: NOW i wouldn't count on. It companies at the moment

219
00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:42,760
Speaker 4: are that have paid these. Tariffs if they can get a,

220
00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:45,160
Speaker 4: refund they're going to do a lot of things that

221
00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:47,959
Speaker 4: they've held back on doing over the past year or.

222
00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:52,200
Speaker 4: So SO i wouldn't expect this to have any sort

223
00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:56,120
Speaker 4: of short term impact on the price of consumer. Items

224
00:12:56,559 --> 00:12:59,440
Speaker 4: As greg spelled out, there this is going to be

225
00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:04,520
Speaker 4: a long drawn, out messy. Process don't forget a lot

226
00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:09,000
Speaker 4: of companies importers that paid these tariffs had arrangements with

227
00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:14,640
Speaker 4: their suppliers overseas to you, know the suppliers themselves overseas will, say,

228
00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:16,719
Speaker 4: hey you KNOW i cut my price because you had

229
00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:18,840
Speaker 4: to pay this. Tariff you, know those suppliers are going

230
00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:21,680
Speaker 4: to want a piece of that action. Back so this

231
00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:25,640
Speaker 4: is just going to create a really complicated. Situation Bloomberg

232
00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:30,240
Speaker 4: economics estimates that the amount OF iepa tariffs that could

233
00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:33,480
Speaker 4: be subject to refunds is about one hundred and seventy billion.

234
00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:37,560
Speaker 4: Dollars let's call that two hundred billion on an annualized.

235
00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:40,720
Speaker 4: Basis that's a little less than THE irs gives out

236
00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:43,600
Speaker 4: in tax refunds every year it, can it. Can it

237
00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:46,720
Speaker 4: ranges from a couple hundred billion to four hundred. Billion

238
00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:47,320
Speaker 4: so that's.

239
00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:48,600
Speaker 2: Something the government knows how to do.

240
00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:51,200
Speaker 4: Well THE irs knows how to do that because that's

241
00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:53,560
Speaker 4: sort of what THE irs. Does The customs And Border

242
00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:57,960
Speaker 4: Protection agency is not in the business of shelling out

243
00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:02,160
Speaker 4: hundreds of billions of dollars of. Refunds so the administration

244
00:14:02,280 --> 00:14:04,360
Speaker 4: of that is going to have to get up to

245
00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:10,199
Speaker 4: scale very. Quickly if the, companies as we, expect you,

246
00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:13,559
Speaker 4: know thousands of, them will try to come to The

247
00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:15,640
Speaker 4: Customs agency and ask for their money.

248
00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:17,480
Speaker 2: Back and just to put a finer point on what

249
00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:20,440
Speaker 2: this means for, consumers you, know obviously not all Of

250
00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:23,360
Speaker 2: trump's tariffs have been struck down by this. Ruling what

251
00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:28,560
Speaker 2: is the effective tariff rate that consumers will face after

252
00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:29,720
Speaker 2: THE aepa tariffs go?

253
00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:33,560
Speaker 4: Away so the effective tariff rate WITH aipa in effect

254
00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:37,360
Speaker 4: was about thirteen or fourteen. Percent that's sort of a

255
00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:41,160
Speaker 4: broad average over ALL us. Imports it varies by, country,

256
00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:45,840
Speaker 4: obviously but WITHOUT, iepa it goes from thirteen percent to

257
00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:48,880
Speaker 4: something in the range of six to seven, Percent so

258
00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:52,920
Speaker 4: essentially it gets cut in. Half so again we'll wait

259
00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:55,960
Speaker 4: and see what the administration, does but they're still going

260
00:14:56,000 --> 00:15:00,000
Speaker 4: to remain elevated higher than they were Before trump begans

261
00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:01,760
Speaker 4: and his second term they were down in the two

262
00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:02,440
Speaker 4: to three percent.

263
00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:04,600
Speaker 2: Range And, BRENDAN i want to go back to what

264
00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:06,960
Speaker 2: this all means For President, trump because tariffs have been

265
00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:10,560
Speaker 2: such a central part of his economic. Agenda how does

266
00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:14,080
Speaker 2: this change his ability to threaten other countries willy nilly

267
00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:18,800
Speaker 2: with immediate. Tariffs does it weaken his negotiating? Position that

268
00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:19,360
Speaker 2: would be his.

269
00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:23,640
Speaker 4: Argument you, know the president of The United states has

270
00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:26,640
Speaker 4: a lot of other non tariff powers that they can

271
00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:31,320
Speaker 4: bring to the table in foreign. Policy but the real

272
00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:34,360
Speaker 4: issue here is That President trump is going to have

273
00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:39,160
Speaker 4: to restrain that impulse to use tariffs at every turn

274
00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:43,920
Speaker 4: to try to sway countries to his. Ideology another thing

275
00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:48,120
Speaker 4: we shouldn't overlook here is the opportunity that this provides him.

276
00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:50,720
Speaker 4: Too you, know we've been talking a lot about tariff's

277
00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:54,800
Speaker 4: effects on the, economy the, economy you, know hasn't exactly

278
00:15:55,520 --> 00:16:00,200
Speaker 4: been going gangbusters of, late And republicans In congress are

279
00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:05,760
Speaker 4: hearing it from their, constituents and ratcheting back tariffs isn't

280
00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:09,120
Speaker 4: such a bad thing for the president politically heading into

281
00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:14,200
Speaker 4: these mid term. Elections dialing them, down bringing them on

282
00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:20,160
Speaker 4: board more, slowly using more discretion might actually help the

283
00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:25,120
Speaker 4: economy and might help sentiment and pull consumer confidence. Out

284
00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:28,240
Speaker 4: so there's a flip side to this that's not all

285
00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:29,720
Speaker 4: bad for the president.

286
00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:33,640
Speaker 2: And GREG a conservative majority court has just struck down

287
00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:37,160
Speaker 2: one of the president's key. POLICIES i want to underline

288
00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:39,520
Speaker 2: that for a, second when we think about the balance

289
00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:44,160
Speaker 2: of The court's decisions and against The trump administration and

290
00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:48,440
Speaker 2: the expansion of presidential, powers how does today's opinion change

291
00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:49,680
Speaker 2: the picture for you if at.

292
00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:53,040
Speaker 5: All the Way i'm thinking about it is that this

293
00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:55,400
Speaker 5: is a case Where Donald trump just pushed The Supreme

294
00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:59,960
Speaker 5: court too. Far he has made all manner of claims

295
00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:04,040
Speaker 5: of presidential power that we haven't seen, before and The

296
00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:06,920
Speaker 5: Supreme court over the last year has been pretty, accommodating

297
00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:09,679
Speaker 5: not on every single, thing but over and, over at

298
00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:13,119
Speaker 5: least on a short term, basis with these emergency requests

299
00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:18,840
Speaker 5: to do various things involving immigration and spending and. Firing

300
00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:21,439
Speaker 5: The court has let him do what he wanted to

301
00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:24,959
Speaker 5: do for the most. Part but here when we were

302
00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:28,639
Speaker 5: looking at what's a pretty fundamental question about separation of,

303
00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:33,680
Speaker 5: powers where The constitution, says this is a power That congress,

304
00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:37,959
Speaker 5: has The Supreme court, said including two members of The

305
00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:41,240
Speaker 5: court who were appointed By Donald trump And Neil, Gorsich

306
00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:46,040
Speaker 5: Nami Coney, barrett said, no, you the, president do not

307
00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:48,960
Speaker 5: have this authority by using this statute that doesn't even

308
00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:52,879
Speaker 5: talk about, tariffs and that is a big. Deal so

309
00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:55,960
Speaker 5: there's no question that this is a line The court

310
00:17:56,000 --> 00:18:00,840
Speaker 5: has drawn with the. President don't minimize everything else The

311
00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:03,120
Speaker 5: court has. Done This court has still been very very,

312
00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:07,040
Speaker 5: accommodating but at least on this sort of unprecedented assertion

313
00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:09,919
Speaker 5: of presidential, authority The court is, saying, no you can't do.

314
00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:17,080
Speaker 2: That this is the big take From Bloomberg. News I'm Sarah.

315
00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:20,880
Speaker 2: Holder the show is hosted By, Me David, gera And Juan.

316
00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:25,040
Speaker 2: Hawk the show is made By Aaron, Edwards David, Fox Jeff,

317
00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:30,200
Speaker 2: Grocott Eleanor, Harrison, Dengate Patti, Hirsch Rachel, Lewis, Krisky katie,

318
00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:37,320
Speaker 2: Mcmurran Naomi Julia, Press Tracy, Samuelson Naomi, Shaven Alex, Sugiera Julia,

319
00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:41,720
Speaker 2: Weaver Yang, yong and Take. Yasuzawa there's much more On

320
00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:45,080
Speaker 2: bloomberg dot. Com get unlimited access to all of our

321
00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:48,520
Speaker 2: coverage at a special rate for listeners At bloomberg Dot

322
00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:52,679
Speaker 2: com slash, podcast offering thanks for. Listening we'll be back On.

323
00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:53,080
Speaker 2: Monday