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Speaker 1: Welcome into Northside Territory. Foul Territory Networks Cubs Podcast. I'm

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Speaker 1: Sadiv Sharma with my partner Patrick Mooney. We are your

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Speaker 1: Cubs beat writers over at the Athletic. Patrick, we got

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Speaker 1: a little bit of Cubs news this week. The Cubs

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Speaker 1: declined the three year option on showdow Mi Managa's contract

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Speaker 1: and in turn showed him Monaga responded by declining, I

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Speaker 1: believe it was a one year option that he had.

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Speaker 1: After that triggered, you know, his him having the choice

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Speaker 1: of either opting in or opting out, and he opted out.

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Speaker 1: And depending on whether they you know, what happens next

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Speaker 1: as far as a qualifying offer, he's a free agent.

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Speaker 1: Either way, he's a free agent. Showed him Anagua as

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Speaker 1: a free agent. This isn't a shock. I think maybe

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Speaker 1: four months ago it would have been a shock. Maybe

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Speaker 1: less than that shoot, But things changed and I think

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Speaker 1: we got some inklings over the past, you know, over

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Speaker 1: the final MONTHI ish of the season that this could happen,

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Speaker 1: that this wasn't unreasonable, and it started to make sense

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Speaker 1: and we kind of expected this, and I think the

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Speaker 1: chain of events that's happened so far when we record

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Speaker 1: what is a Wednesday morning. This isn't a shock, This

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Speaker 1: isn't a surprise. We kind of expected what has happened

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Speaker 1: to unfold.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was just pulling up my notes here, so

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Speaker 2: I have the numbers right, and I think it's a

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Speaker 2: good grounding for how to look at kind of the

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Speaker 2: rest of the off season. The Cubs could have locked

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Speaker 2: him in through twenty twenty eight for fifty seven point

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Speaker 2: seven five million Showda had an option for fifteen point

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Speaker 2: twenty five million and also a player option for twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty seven, so he will be looking to be thirty

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Speaker 2: point five million over the next two seasons. I think clearly,

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Speaker 2: when you don't start Shoda in an elimination game after

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Speaker 2: using an opener in front of him in the previous round,

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Speaker 2: clearly there were question marks.

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Speaker 3: About his.

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Speaker 2: Viability as a frontline starter moving forward. It to me

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Speaker 2: still feels like a little bit of recency bias. You know,

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Speaker 2: if you watch the World Series all of a sudden,

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Speaker 2: like me, you think Addison Barger is like the greatest

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Speaker 2: player in the.

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Speaker 3: History of baseball.

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Speaker 2: At times he's probably not. And I don't think Shoda

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Speaker 2: is as bad as he was during that stretch. But

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Speaker 2: clearly we know how this front office operates, you know,

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Speaker 2: how this ownership group runs the team. They love financial flexibility,

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Speaker 2: they hate making commitments when they don't have to. And

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Speaker 2: if some of those concerns that the baseball industry had

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Speaker 2: about showed in Monaga when he was coming over from

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Speaker 2: Japan start to surface at this particular moment when you

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Speaker 2: have to commit that far into the future, they just

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Speaker 2: weren't going to do it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, we'll see if they give him the

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Speaker 1: qualifying offer. You know, we kind of discussed this beforehand.

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Speaker 1: But like unless they just think he's completely overdone here,

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Speaker 1: like if he yeah, if he's cooked and like just

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Speaker 1: cannot if they believe like this guy cannot give you

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Speaker 1: quality starts at least part of the time, then I'd

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Speaker 1: expect a qualifying offer, but maybe maybe not, Like, like

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Speaker 1: what are their projections? What do their projections say? I

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Speaker 1: understand when you look at what he had, what he

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Speaker 1: did and the home runs, which were always a concern,

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Speaker 1: which was something that we talked about the day he signed.

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Speaker 1: H he did a really great job of limiting it

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Speaker 1: in the first year. Obviously struggled the final two months

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Speaker 1: of the season, committing to that, along with the dip

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Speaker 1: in velocity for three years, along with the no trade clause.

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Speaker 3: Look, I get it from their point of view.

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Speaker 1: From the Cubs point of view, I think when you

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Speaker 1: talk about what the Cubs need and talk about twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty six, just purely looking at twenty twenty six, what

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Speaker 1: did we see, what did we hear all October? It's

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Speaker 1: all about pitching. What did Jed talk about at that

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Speaker 1: press conference? It's all about pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching. We've

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Speaker 1: written it, We're going to continue to write it. They

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Speaker 1: are going to be pursuing pitching this winter. So losing

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Speaker 1: a quality starting pitcher if you believe that showda Monaga

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Speaker 1: is a quality starting pitcher. I'm not saying twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: four version, but just a three right, a middle of

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Speaker 1: the rotation guy on a winning team. Losing that is

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Speaker 1: a big hole and they needed pitching on top of him.

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Speaker 1: They do have four starters, viable starters in theory, you know,

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Speaker 1: assuming Justin Steele is healthy to start the season. I

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Speaker 1: think that's a big assumption. But either way, they're getting pitching.

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Speaker 1: We knew this now. It just puts it, you know,

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Speaker 1: puts it in bold top of the list. There's no

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Speaker 1: denying that this has to get done. We'll see, we'll

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Speaker 1: see with the qualifying offer, what if they extend it

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Speaker 1: and what show does camp reaction is, But this is,

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Speaker 1: you know, it just emphasizes a need that we kind

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Speaker 1: of expected already and it's a risk in my opinion,

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Speaker 1: like it just I get it. I get not doing

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Speaker 1: three years, but letting show to walk if that's what

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Speaker 1: it comes to. It just could there's a chance this

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Speaker 1: could bite them obvious. I mean, I guess that's obvious,

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Speaker 1: but you know, it's just like what he's done for

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Speaker 1: them and and the quality innings he's provided, even when

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Speaker 1: he struggled, he did limit.

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Speaker 3: Image for the most part.

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Speaker 1: It was that last start of the season where he

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Speaker 1: didn't and then the playoffs he just wasn't trusted and

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Speaker 1: that was obvious. And I think that's a big sign

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Speaker 1: that that was a big, you know, kind of a

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Speaker 1: red flag and it should have been obvious for everyone

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Speaker 1: like what may be coming.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll get into showed a side more in the

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Speaker 2: next segment. But my sort of parting thought on this

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Speaker 2: is I'm going to go back even farther than October

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Speaker 2: and you know the trade deadline and Jed Hoyer walking

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Speaker 2: in there, and you know the price was something we

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Speaker 2: could not do to our future, that it was an

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Speaker 2: exorbitant price to acquire a controllable, established starting pitcher at

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Speaker 2: the deadline. Okay, that's fine if it costs match or

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Speaker 2: Kate Horton plus a top one hundred prospect, all right,

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Speaker 2: you go about it different ways, and then you get

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Speaker 2: October and your pitching depth is totally exposed. Basically first

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Speaker 2: pitch of game one of the second round when you

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Speaker 2: have to win four rounds to win a World Series,

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Speaker 2: and then you get a couple of weeks to decompress,

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Speaker 2: and you know, showed Up can't compete with the Cub's imaginations, right,

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Speaker 2: They've been pretty good at finding these starters. But it's like,

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Speaker 2: oh wow, there's all these names out there, and what

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Speaker 2: if we get him in our pitching instructure. We have

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Speaker 2: so many Gold Glove defenders. They just did a bunch

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Speaker 2: of zoom calls after after winning that hardware. Let's just

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Speaker 2: get him at Wrigley Field, which might be an extreme

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Speaker 2: pitchers park again next year. That's great, but like, I

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Speaker 2: don't know, I'm checking how long until like the Angels

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Speaker 2: signed some like bottom uh, you know, back of the

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Speaker 2: rotation starter. It's like a four year, seventy million dollars deal.

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Speaker 2: And then the covers like these prices are crazy, like

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Speaker 2: what what is going on? And like that happened, you

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Speaker 2: know with like Walker Bueller, like, oh, that'll be an

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Speaker 2: interesting name. And then I think the Red Sox gave

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Speaker 2: him what was it more than like the qualifying offerers?

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Speaker 3: Now it was something.

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Speaker 2: There, And you know, it seems like every year there's

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Speaker 2: kind of this sticker shock. So Will showed a beat

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Speaker 2: three and almost fifty eight million. Maybe not, but I

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Speaker 2: don't think like reliable starting pitchers sort of grow on

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Speaker 2: trees or that they are going to come cheap. I mean,

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Speaker 2: Kyle Hendricks didn't throw a hundred, but I think he

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Speaker 2: made more than one hundred million dollars in his career

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Speaker 2: just by being a guy who could post and could

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Speaker 2: give you quality innings. This is also the time of

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Speaker 2: year where you can rattle off all these names.

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Speaker 3: Oh look at all this depth.

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Speaker 2: I mean, maybe Ben Brown figures it out or I

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Speaker 2: don't write off Jordan. It's like, well you you kind

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Speaker 2: of did, like you don't trust these guys in October

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Speaker 2: and I realized show is now in that was in

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Speaker 2: that bucket at like the worst possible time. But we'll see,

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Speaker 2: we'll see what that what the rest of the industry

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Speaker 2: views have showed. And I think that'll be an interesting,

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Speaker 2: really interesting part of that in this story too.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, what the intersty thinks of Shoda and what the

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Speaker 1: industry values pitching in general this winter? Uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: we have a potential lockout looming a year from now.

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Speaker 1: How much does that affect other teams spending? I don't like,

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Speaker 1: It's really hard to predict this stuff. I feel I

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Speaker 1: do feel like oftentimes the Cubs are a little shocked

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Speaker 1: by prices early on, now that they were aggressive and

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Speaker 1: got Matthew Boyd nailed that great, great signing. If if

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Speaker 1: they quickly identify someone like that and and have their

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Speaker 1: sights set on someone and they're going after guy like

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna throw out like a like a an

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Speaker 1: undervalue guy that that has had a good season, good

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Speaker 1: seasons in the past.

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Speaker 3: Zach Gallen is a name that that comes to mind.

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Speaker 1: H there was someone else we mentioned in our piece

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Speaker 1: that that kind of fits that mold of here's a

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Speaker 1: guy that's coming off a miss season that that has

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Speaker 1: a long history, and I'm forgetting who it is now,

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Speaker 1: but there there were a couple of Michael Michael King

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Speaker 1: or that's exactly who I was thinking of. Michael King

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Speaker 1: and Zach Gallon are like two names that like, these

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Speaker 1: guys could put up cy young caliber seasons if if

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Speaker 1: they you know, are healthy and have the right defense

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Speaker 1: behind them and get the right things whatever it may be.

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Speaker 1: But those are two names, like I don't who knows

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Speaker 1: if they break the bank. I don't expect them to.

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Speaker 1: I just don't know what. Like, this is an especially

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Speaker 1: weird offseason with the lockout, but with the potential CBA

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Speaker 1: and all that stuff coming in a year, so we'll

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Speaker 1: see if the Cubs can judge the market right. It's

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Speaker 1: just not having losing a picture when you had a

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Speaker 1: chance to lock them up. I get all the reasons

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Speaker 1: why you don't pick up that three year option. It's

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Speaker 1: just pitching depth is always something you're on the search for,

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Speaker 1: so it just emphasizes that need once again. Let's let's

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Speaker 1: take a break, and when we come back, we'll talk

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Speaker 1: about the value.

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Speaker 3: Of show to in the past and maybe how teams

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Speaker 3: may view them going.

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Speaker 1: Patrick, you talk about recency bias, and I don't want

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Speaker 1: that to color what maybe a two year ten year

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Speaker 1: for showed him and again in Chicago because like, let's

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Speaker 1: not forget what twenty twenty four was. He was a

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Speaker 1: sensation for much of that year. He like kind of

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Speaker 1: jumped onto the scene, was like this huge marketable picture

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Speaker 1: that you know. The fans love him. Remember in the

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Speaker 1: bleachers how much they loved him. He did walk out

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Speaker 1: for his warm ups. Uh, they cheer him on, they

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Speaker 1: had the show to painted on their chests. Obviously delivered

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Speaker 1: like really quality stuff, really quality results. I don't want

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Speaker 1: to ignore that and act like it was nothing because

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Speaker 1: he finished. He got cy Young votes, he got Rookie

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Speaker 1: of the Year votes. He was really impactful pitcher, and

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Speaker 1: he and he came into this season as you know,

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Speaker 1: like a coaes with with Justin Steele starting the opening

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Speaker 1: day in Tokyo, a series that the Cubs probably aren't playing,

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Speaker 1: and showed him and Naga isn't there. Uh So, like

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Speaker 1: he did a lot. If this is the end of

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Speaker 1: his tenure with the Cubs, he did a lot for

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Speaker 1: the Cubs. Yeah, I have some thoughts on on what

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Speaker 1: he may be going for, but but go ahead, and

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Speaker 1: I'm sure you have thoughts on what he was for

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Speaker 1: this team.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just not completely comfortable like trashing Showda's body

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Speaker 2: of work because I think I saw a little bit

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Speaker 2: of that out there, sort of dismissive of what he accomplished.

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Speaker 2: And look what we're talking about, Like the Cubs get

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Speaker 2: credit for being in position to sign showeda to have

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Speaker 2: the relationships and the information to like eventually pounce on

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Speaker 2: that and put put together a plan as well as

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Speaker 2: a support system to help him thrive. And maybe it's

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Speaker 2: a new Japanese picture this offseason. Maybe it's one of

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Speaker 2: those sort of flawed but talented pictures who are free

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Speaker 2: agents now they can go out and do that again,

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Speaker 2: that is the strength of their organization. But Shoda, at

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Speaker 2: least for our purposes, brought something else.

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Speaker 3: And I think you saw it.

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Speaker 2: I think fans recognize that of there was some charisma

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Speaker 2: there even though he wasn't in his home country and

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Speaker 2: it wasn't his English, wasn't his first language. You saw

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Speaker 2: the show to Jerseys everywhere, I mean Show to Mania

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Speaker 2: was a thing. I mean he was the best picture

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Speaker 2: on the planet for a stretch there in twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 2: and it was just like, how is he doing this,

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Speaker 2: he forced a lot of teams to answer questions from

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Speaker 2: US and Ken Rosenthal, our colleague here at Felt Territory

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Speaker 2: in the athletic of like, did the industry totally miss

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Speaker 2: this guy?

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Speaker 3: And I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I think with a lot of these things, you still

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Speaker 2: have to bet on the person. And I do think

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Speaker 2: show does baseball IQ his competitiveness, his pride. I think

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Speaker 2: a lot of those things will help him moving forward.

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure how you put a dollar amount on that,

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Speaker 2: or I don't know how many teams really operate that

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Speaker 2: way anymore, but certainly like kind of jump starting this

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Speaker 2: rebuild and like taking it to the next level, taking

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Speaker 2: pressure off team, I mean basically almost single handedly making

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four a competitive season. Like without him, how

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Speaker 2: bad does that look? And are they in a position

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Speaker 2: to make the leap to ninety plus wins this year?

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 1: As far as what showed it can be going forward. Look,

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Speaker 1: the end of his season was concerning the like there

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Speaker 1: were signs all season long his velocity was down, especially

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Speaker 1: after the injury.

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Speaker 3: He was never a velo guy.

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Speaker 1: He's a command guy with some unique characteristics on his fastball.

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Speaker 3: The fastball velocity dipped a tick or two. That's not that.

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Speaker 1: That's rough for him, and he wasn't the command wasn't pristine,

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Speaker 1: and they were started to hammer those pitches and then

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Speaker 1: it started to be with men on base, and that's

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Speaker 1: when it got really ugly. Got ugly in that final

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Speaker 1: start of the regular season and then his final start

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Speaker 1: against his final appearance right against the Brewers that like,

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Speaker 1: I don't I think what I would have liked to

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Speaker 1: have seen with him potentially heading into free or I

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Speaker 1: guess heading into free agency.

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Speaker 3: For his side, what you wanted to see was him.

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Speaker 3: I guess he got punched in the mouth, and.

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Speaker 1: We don't know fully how he's going to react, because

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Speaker 1: that's that's really the first time that month and a

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Speaker 1: half of poor play was the first time he didn't

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Speaker 1: respond positively. Yet is he going to uh? Is he

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Speaker 1: going to get that tick or two back on his

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Speaker 1: on his stuff? He's going to be thirty two or

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Speaker 1: he is thirty two, thirty two, thirty three, thirty four.

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Speaker 1: That'd be rough to give that type of money for

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Speaker 1: someone that may be giving up thirty plus homers a

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Speaker 1: year and can't really control the you know, the opposition

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Speaker 1: if you can't get deep into a game. That's Look,

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Speaker 1: I don't know what his future holds. I don't know

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Speaker 1: how much the end of this season kind of tells

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Speaker 1: us what is coming. And I think that that's what

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Speaker 1: makes everything so uncomfortable about it and why you had

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Speaker 1: to why the Cubs had to make the decision they did.

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Speaker 1: I would have liked to have seen something from him

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Speaker 1: where he kind of rebounded in some way, but the

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Speaker 1: end of the season really colors the way you feel.

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Speaker 3: About him, and I under so I understand.

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Speaker 1: I don't agree with this completely trashing his tenure, Like,

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Speaker 1: if that's the choice you want to make, I don't.

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Speaker 1: That's right, Like he was he had some great moments,

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Speaker 1: but there are some major questions here. I like, you

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Speaker 1: want to see him bounce back in Like if it's

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Speaker 1: the hamstring, if that's what it was, okay, fine, but

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Speaker 1: you need like you need more information than you need

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Speaker 1: to see.

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Speaker 3: And that's why I think it.

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Speaker 1: You know, if it's the qualifying offer and it's like

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Speaker 1: twenty some thing million, that's a that's a risk that

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Speaker 1: a team like the Cubs for one year. They shouldn't

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Speaker 1: be overthinking that, Like that's an easy decision. But if

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Speaker 1: we we don't know what their numbers are going to

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Speaker 1: be this year. As far as payroll, we don't know

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Speaker 1: how tight payroll will be.

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Speaker 3: Uh. They have holes to fill obviously, both they have

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Speaker 3: to rebuild an entire bullpen.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna have to add another bat some sort of

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Speaker 1: like at least a right handed bat and then probably

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Speaker 1: like a starting caliber bat. Uh. And then and then

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Speaker 1: obviously we've talked about their rotation. So there's there's money

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Speaker 1: to be spent that they have to spend some money.

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Speaker 1: You can't fill it all with kids.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 1: So look, I I I think qualifying offer is a

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Speaker 1: very simple thing that the Cubs should do.

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Speaker 3: Like, like you said, Walker.

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Speaker 1: Bueler signed for a little bit more than the qualifying

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Speaker 1: offer last year, right, and he wasn't he wasn't ave

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Speaker 1: like he was a starter for a.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. So if you can, if the Red Sox can

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Speaker 3: do that and.

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Speaker 1: Get over it and make the playoffs and do that,

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Speaker 1: like you should be able to take that risk with Shoda.

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Speaker 3: That's how I look at it.

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Speaker 1: But I do think it's gotten to the point where

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Speaker 1: it's a little bit of a risk now, and that's

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Speaker 1: unfortunate because I don't like all that stuff you said, charisma, intelligence.

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Speaker 1: He works so well with hot Tobe and Casey Jacobson

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Speaker 1: and these guys in the Cubs pitching infrastructure. He really

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Speaker 1: seemed to enjoy working with them. He seemed to enjoy Chicago. So,

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Speaker 1: you know, I hope it's not like I hope fans

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Speaker 1: don't look at it as a negative thing, which showed

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Speaker 1: it brought to this town and to this game, because

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Speaker 1: there was so much positive and there were little things.

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Speaker 1: Remember how often Craig Counsel would talk about how smart

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Speaker 1: he is and how he knows how to do certain

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Speaker 1: things defensively, he seems so confident out there, so comfortable

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Speaker 1: ability to adjust and pitch this pitch isn't working today,

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Speaker 1: I'm going did this and like quickly adjust mid game.

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Speaker 3: He seemed to do that for about a year and

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Speaker 3: a half.

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Speaker 1: With like like without missing a beat, and then that

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Speaker 1: final month and a half two months, it.

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Speaker 3: Just kind of fell apart on him.

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Speaker 1: And that's you know, it's unfortunate that that's how the

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Speaker 1: season ended for him, But it may be just like

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Speaker 1: what I guess, I'm very curious to see what's to

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Speaker 1: come for him, what type of picture.

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Speaker 3: Can he be, you know, as he enters his mid thirties.

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Speaker 3: I guess I.

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Speaker 2: Think back to when the Cubs signed you Darvish and

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Speaker 2: THEO Epstein was asked about the twenty seventeen World Series,

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Speaker 2: and at that time we didn't know the astros cheating

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Speaker 2: system that they had set up, but yeah, THEO said

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Speaker 2: something along the lines of, well, we look at that

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Speaker 2: as an opportunity that you know, that experience or that

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Speaker 2: disappointment might have scared off some teams and that you know,

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Speaker 2: allowed Darvish to get to a place where they felt

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Speaker 2: comfortable doing a deal with him. And now twenty eighteen

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Speaker 2: was bad. Darvis was hurt, wound up being hurt, but

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Speaker 2: he had several good seasons after that. Darvis is also

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Speaker 2: on my mind too of you know, his his surgery

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Speaker 2: and the fact that he missed next season, and you know,

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Speaker 2: I'm kind of dating myself with that reference. But that

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Speaker 2: was just kind of a pertinent way of like, you know,

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Speaker 2: we put so much emphasis on these playoff games, and

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Speaker 2: rightly so, but you know, Council talks about how seasons

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Speaker 2: are sort of unfold or just the sequencing of them.

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Speaker 2: Jameson Tyn was not good on the front end of

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Speaker 2: his contract those first couple of months. Maybe it's been

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Speaker 2: an excellent, reliable starter for them since then. I mean,

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Speaker 2: like Matthew Boyd towards the end of September, it looked

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Speaker 2: like he was kind of eating a bit and he

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Speaker 2: wound up when he was pitching on normal rest put

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Speaker 2: together some nice playoff starts for them. I mean it

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Speaker 2: just yeah, we'll we'll see where this goes. I think

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Speaker 2: there's a cultural element of this too that I'm not

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Speaker 2: fully able to explain or maybe understand. I just don't

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Speaker 2: know how show to may take this news right of yeah,

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Speaker 2: that's a good point. They don't want me. I think

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Speaker 2: I don't know how you explain like the CUPS data

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Speaker 2: model and like their projections and their logarithms, like you

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Speaker 2: three years out into the future, and then like their

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Speaker 2: CBT payment, like.

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Speaker 5: All of that together.

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Speaker 2: But I also i'd like showda on one you do.

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Speaker 2: I would feel pretty comfortable about that. Giving him twenty

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Speaker 2: million dollars roughly to put up a two war season,

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Speaker 2: I think that's a pretty relatively easy bar for him

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Speaker 2: to clear, and all it takes is one t him

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Speaker 2: out there to be like, hey, you know, our pitching

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Speaker 2: analyst has this one thought that we want to give

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Speaker 2: to show, to give him full off season to work

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Speaker 2: on whatever, to get fully healthy, to get up to

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Speaker 2: full full strength, and sort of let him loose. We'll see,

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Speaker 2: but yeah, it's I think he is going to be

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Speaker 2: one of those fascinating guys to watch this offseason. I

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Speaker 2: think that entire pitching market, the Cubs are just going

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Speaker 2: to be around that all off season and maybe into

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Speaker 2: spring training looking at how the calendar has unfolded previous

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Speaker 2: off seasons.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean we're going to be watching pitching for

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Speaker 1: the next few months.

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Speaker 3: I think that's going to be our main.

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Speaker 1: Job that they obviously have other needs, but starting pitching,

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Speaker 1: relief pitching, I think that's going to be a lot

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Speaker 1: of what we talk about over the next few months.

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Speaker 3: So we will do that.

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Speaker 1: We will have another episode this week. Make sure to

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Speaker 1: tune in for that. Thanks so much, Thanks for listening

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Speaker 1: to everyone. This is North Side Territory. Make sure to rate, review, subscribe,

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the YouTube channel, and subscribe to The Athletic

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Speaker 1: where Patrick and Iron top of all things Cubs.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to everyone. Take care