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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. Crushed it.

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Speaker 2: It's good.

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Speaker 1: All right. Here we go for the throwing up job spec.

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Speaker 1: I'm saying up to catch stop.

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Speaker 2: That's all we see.

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Speaker 1: Most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to win. God,

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Speaker 1: that's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 1: This is the ultimate kaboy.

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Speaker 2: Wanna pull.

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Speaker 1: And we are under way, Ladies and gentlemen, Boys and girls,

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Speaker 1: We're back. It's your boy Rahem Palmer with Brandon Andasis

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Speaker 1: the Action Network Podcast. We have a special podcast for

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Speaker 1: you today. We're gonna give you NFL mid season futures

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Speaker 1: check in. We're gonna check in on everything you need

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Speaker 1: to know from super Bowl to Conference eyes, Division odds,

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Speaker 1: Defensive Player to the Year, MVP, Offensive Player to year,

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Speaker 1: everything you want to know. We're breaking down. We're giving

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Speaker 1: you our best bits. So how are you doing today, Brandon.

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Speaker 2: Man, I'm doing good right and make some NFL futures

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Speaker 2: picks here. How are you feeling?

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Speaker 1: I feel good? I mean we break we check it

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Speaker 1: in midseason futures, So I just want to see what

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Speaker 1: you think about everything. Let's get into the Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: and conference odds. Where are you looking at right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So I start at the top here. I try

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Speaker 2: to just you know, you and I have talked about

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Speaker 2: this a lot. The best way to win your conference,

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Speaker 2: the best way to get to the super Bowl, as

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Speaker 2: all is get the one seed, get the bye week.

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Speaker 2: So to me, that's the first question you have to

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Speaker 2: look at is Okay, look at the schedules, look at

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Speaker 2: the teams. Where are these teams going? Like? Who actually

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Speaker 2: can earn the one seed? So the AFC is an

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Speaker 2: absolute mess right now.

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Speaker 1: Spoiler alert, I.

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Speaker 2: Don't have a lot of picks for the AFC. To me,

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Speaker 2: I still think that the Buffalo Bills are just a

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Speaker 2: cut ahead of the rest. I know this was an

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Speaker 2: absolute disaster against the Jags this week, but I think

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Speaker 2: before this game pretty much everyone agreed that Buffalo was

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Speaker 2: the team ahead. I'm trying to not let recency bias

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Speaker 2: throw me off. So I think Buffalo is the clear

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Speaker 2: one seed favorite if there is one there, and for me,

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Speaker 2: that still puts them as the most likely team to

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Speaker 2: represent the AFC. My thing is, though there are five

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Speaker 2: great teams in NFC, There's the Cardinals, the Rams, the Packers,

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Speaker 2: the Bucks, and the Cowboys. I think any AFC team

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Speaker 2: that comes out if you're facing one of those five,

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Speaker 2: which you probably are, I think the AFC team is

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Speaker 2: the underdog, So I don't want to play the Bills

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Speaker 2: to win the Super Bowl. I'm seeing that around plus

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Speaker 2: six hundred of some books. I don't mind them to

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Speaker 2: win the AFC. I'm seeing around plus two fifty. I

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Speaker 2: would put it maybe closer to like one eighty or so.

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Speaker 2: I have it maybe around thirty five percent. So I

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Speaker 2: don't love the odds there, but just going with a

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Speaker 2: favorite seems like the best AFC move. What do you

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Speaker 2: think of Buffalo?

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Speaker 1: Still, I'm a little concerned about Buffalo, and I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of it has to do with their offense

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Speaker 1: right now, Josh Allen hasn't really looked that great, and

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Speaker 1: I think when you lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars there's

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Speaker 1: a cost for concern. When you look at this team,

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Speaker 1: They've played a pretty easy schedule. They played the Steelers,

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Speaker 1: which they lost too, but they beat the Dolphins thirty

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Speaker 1: five nothing to beat the Dolphins twice and two bloss

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Speaker 1: they beat Washington, they beat the Texans. That Chiefs loss

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Speaker 1: doesn't that Chiefs win doesn't look as good. As it

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Speaker 1: looked earlier on in the season. Obviously, they lost to

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Speaker 1: the Titans, who were juggernaut, but this team hasn't proved

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Speaker 1: themselves yet. So they're just one game up for the

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Speaker 1: lead in the AFC East and they still have two

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Speaker 1: games against the Patriots. So I don't know if I'm

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Speaker 1: too high on Buffalo right now, but I do understand

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Speaker 1: they do have one of the best defenses in the AFC,

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Speaker 1: and in a week AFC maybe they get the edge.

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Speaker 1: But I'm not that too high on that. So what

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Speaker 1: do you think about the NFC?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so NFC. One thing I do like here, You

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Speaker 2: can just back the NFC to beat the AFC in

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Speaker 2: the Super Bowl at minus one twenty five, so you're

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Speaker 2: paying a little bit of juice there. Again, I think

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Speaker 2: the five best teams they have NFL right now might

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Speaker 2: all be NFC teams. We need to make a case

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Speaker 2: for all five. What do you think about that? Would

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Speaker 2: you ever just bet the NFC VERUS AFC without having

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Speaker 2: any idea who the matchup is or is that way

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Speaker 2: too far out for you?

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Speaker 1: I do think you can find some value on it

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Speaker 1: at times, but I do think that you want to

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Speaker 1: actually go through and handicap the individual matchups, and I

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Speaker 1: think it's a little early for it now, just because

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Speaker 1: we don't even know the playoff positioning. We don't know

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Speaker 1: who's in the playoffs. That's something I will kind of

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Speaker 1: wait to wait. I do agree with you. The NFC

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Speaker 1: is definitely the better conference and has the better teams.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, so looking at those five teams, trying to

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Speaker 2: figure out who's the one seed. So the Cardinals and

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Speaker 2: the Rams, obviously the first problem is each other. You're

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Speaker 2: in the same division that have to play each other

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Speaker 2: one more time. There's still other tough division games. I

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Speaker 2: know the Niners and Seahawks haven't been as good the

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Speaker 2: last month as they looked early. But Russell Wilson is

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Speaker 2: back now. Niners are still be a tough team, you know.

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Speaker 2: If they're better as an underdog. We know that, so

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Speaker 2: I think they can applies to each other a little bit.

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Speaker 2: They both have pretty tough schedules coming up. Cardinals play

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Speaker 2: at Dallas I think in week seventeen as well, so

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Speaker 2: that could be a really key game. The Packers. We

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Speaker 2: don't know if Rogers are gonna play yet. We're recording

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Speaker 2: this on Tuesday. He hasn't necessarily been cleared for this week.

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Speaker 2: We're not really sure what's happening with them still. So

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Speaker 2: they've got a tough schedule too. Seattle in Minnesota, Rams, Bears, Ravens, Browns, Vikings,

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Speaker 2: like that's everything until the Lions in the last week.

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Speaker 2: They could lose any of those games. So to me,

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Speaker 2: the Bucks and the Cowboys are the two teams that

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Speaker 2: are the favorites to be the one seed. I think

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Speaker 2: the Cowboys end up. I project them somewhere around like

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Speaker 2: eleven to fourteen wins. They're kind of above the Fray.

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Speaker 2: They still got four games against the NFC East. I

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Speaker 2: think they have a good shot here. But the Bucks,

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Speaker 2: the Bucks schedule is so easy. The defense has kind

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Speaker 2: of sneakily been pretty good again the last few weeks.

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Speaker 2: They're getting healthy a little bit. They're getting some of

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Speaker 2: those guys back in the lineup. Bucks schedule coming up,

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Speaker 2: Washington Giants, Colts, Falcons home against the Bills. That's the

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Speaker 2: one possible tricky spot there. Saints, Panthers, Jets Panthers. There's

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Speaker 2: just not more than like one or two losses on

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Speaker 2: that list, barring a collapse or some big injuries. So

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Speaker 2: I think the Bucks honestly have a shot to run

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Speaker 2: the table in the regular season, be fifteen and two,

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Speaker 2: fourteen and three. So to me, Tampa is the favorite

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Speaker 2: right now, just to be the one seed. You can

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Speaker 2: bet them at plus three fifty at some books to

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Speaker 2: get the most wins. So it's not sexy, but I

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Speaker 2: think that the Bucks and the Bills they're the favorites.

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Speaker 2: I think they are the right favorites. Would you bet

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Speaker 2: Tampa Bay or do you think there's any value there?

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Speaker 1: I do think the Bucks are the favorite, and I

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Speaker 1: think the one thing that you did neglect to say

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Speaker 1: is that the Bucks actually beat the Cowboys, so they

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Speaker 1: have the time breaker if these two teams tied. Now,

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Speaker 1: before that loss to the Denver Broncos, the Cowboys were

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Speaker 1: the favorite, but I think that that was a big

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Speaker 1: loss to them. I think the Bucks losing to the

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Speaker 1: Saints it kind of gave the Cowboys a leg up,

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Speaker 1: and I think they just gave it right Ben, which

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Speaker 1: is like really disappointed as a Cowboys fan. I do

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Speaker 1: think there's some value there, so, like, I'm not mad

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Speaker 1: at this pick at all.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So I don't know that there's a ton of

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Speaker 2: value there. I think two when Buffalo and Tampa they're

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Speaker 2: the two teams that I would bet straight up that

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Speaker 2: you know, most likely to win the Super Bowl. That

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Speaker 2: doesn't mean that there's necessarily betting value. Also is that

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Speaker 2: you're not gonna lose a lot of value if you

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Speaker 2: wait a couple weeks on this. So if you're worried

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Speaker 2: about Buffalo against Jacksonville, waited out a week or two,

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Speaker 2: like they're already the favorite, the line basically just didn't

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Speaker 2: budge after losing to Jacksonville. So it's not like getting

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Speaker 2: another winner two is going to move it that much

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Speaker 2: the other way. The one team that I might bet

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Speaker 2: now a little bet you're gonna like this one. You're

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Speaker 2: Dallas Cowboys. So I'm seeing Dallas at as high as

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Speaker 2: plus twelve hundred sound books. Again, I think Dallas, other

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Speaker 2: than Tampa Bay, is the next most likely one seed.

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Speaker 2: That sets you up in Jerry World, that sets you

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Speaker 2: up at home, It gives you the bye week. Cowboys

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Speaker 2: defense continues to play really well. It's not just Trevon

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Speaker 2: Diggs getting you interceptions every week. The whole defensive unit

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Speaker 2: has been really good. So you know, Dak Prescott. These

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Speaker 2: last couple of weeks. Obviously, he missed a week. He

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Speaker 2: looked terrible last week. I'm not meaning too much of

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Speaker 2: it right now. I'm not so worried. I'm not worried

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Speaker 2: about the injury. Long term. It's the team that's going

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Speaker 2: to have a fighting shot in any playoff game. At

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Speaker 2: plus twelve hundred, I do think there's some value there,

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Speaker 2: and I think that's the one I would bet right

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Speaker 2: now because they're a little bit of a than a deer.

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Speaker 2: With these last couple of weeks with the ugly Broncos game,

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Speaker 2: I put them maybe around like twelve to fifteen percent,

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Speaker 2: so that put them closer to like plus six or

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Speaker 2: seven hundred. So plus twelve hundred, I think that there's

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Speaker 2: real Cowboys value. Are you in on your Cowboys? Still?

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Speaker 1: This is a passing league. Now the Cowboys can pass

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Speaker 1: the ball, but they also can run the ball. This

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Speaker 1: is the team that they're just so dominant offensively when

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Speaker 1: you look at them. Their third is success rate. They're

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Speaker 1: top five in EPA for play they're the top ten,

191
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Speaker 1: and rush the success rate this team could do at all,

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Speaker 1: and the defense can do just enough to slow teams down.

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Speaker 1: I think the one ish you you're gonna have with

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Speaker 1: this Cowboys team is that Mike McCarthy isn't a good

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Speaker 1: coach and he's likely to be out coached by anyone.

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Speaker 1: But then when you look at the rest of this conference,

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Speaker 1: what other coaches are you really really afraid of? Are

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Speaker 1: you afraid of Kingsbury? Are you afraid of Matt Lafleur?

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Speaker 1: Sean McVeigh to me, he has a reputation as to

200
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Speaker 1: being a good coach, but we see he's rather conservatives.

201
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Speaker 1: He'll go down there and two scores, he'll kick a

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Speaker 1: field goal to take it from two scores to two scores.

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Speaker 1: So I don't know if there's a lot of great

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Speaker 1: coaches in the NFC, and the Cowboys may be able

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Speaker 1: to overcome that with their offense. So I agree with this.

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Speaker 3: one eight hundred eight eight nine nine eight nine in

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Speaker 3: Tennessee one eight hundred bets off in Iowa or one

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Speaker 3: eight eight eight five three to two thirty five hundred

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Speaker 3: much for listening. Let's get back to the show.

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Speaker 1: So let's get into the division odds. We've got four

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Speaker 1: divisions that you want to break down. So let's go

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Speaker 1: with the NFC West. What are you thinking here? I

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Speaker 1: know we got the Cardinals at minus one eighty five

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Speaker 1: and the Rams at plus one ninety five. Who are

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Speaker 1: you giving it edge here?

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Speaker 2: So I tried to go crazy here. You know I

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Speaker 2: love my long shots. I try to talk myself into

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Speaker 2: the Seahawks. I'm seeing them at plus sixty six hundred

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Speaker 2: at bet mgm our official odds provider of course, as always,

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Speaker 2: so I can't get there. The Seahawks are three and five.

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Speaker 2: They basically have to win out and even though Russell

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Speaker 2: Wilson is back, it's tough. They play the Packers, the Niners,

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Speaker 2: they still play the Cardinals twice. I didn't think the

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Speaker 2: Seahawks have some playoff good opportunity to me, though, Cardinals Rams.

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Speaker 2: I just think it's close to a coin flip. I

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Speaker 2: still trust the Rams a little better. I'm coming around

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Speaker 2: on the Cardinals. Arizona did beat the RAM and they

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Speaker 2: host the Rams the next time around, So if you're

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Speaker 2: betting on the Rams, almost certainly the Rams have to

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Speaker 2: win that game in Arizona as an underdog, So I

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Speaker 2: like the Rams. Here here's my question. Am I better

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Speaker 2: off taking the plus one ninety five if I think

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Speaker 2: this is near a coin flip? Or am I better

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Speaker 2: off not bothering and just betting the Rams in Arizona

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Speaker 2: that one game and getting probably not so far of

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Speaker 2: a money line off of that price. What do you think?

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Speaker 1: I think the problem with that strategy is that lot

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Speaker 1: can change from from now to then. So if you

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Speaker 1: see some value now, you kind of gotta take it.

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Speaker 1: Because when you look at the Arizona Cardinals, obviously Kyler

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Speaker 1: Murray's banged ut, DeAndre Hopkins is banged deap. We don't

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Speaker 1: know what's gonna happen with dem And I mean on

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Speaker 1: the other side of the ball, obviously, Matthew Stafford is

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Speaker 1: dealing with it. He's dealing with a back injury right now.

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Speaker 1: He's dealing with an ankle injury. So I'm a little

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Speaker 1: concerned with taking either right now just based on what

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Speaker 1: we're seeing. But I think if you see the value,

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Speaker 1: you probably should take it now because anything could change.

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Speaker 1: Like these teams, this is a week by week lead.

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Speaker 1: You could the Cincinnati Bengals. Two weeks ago, we were

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Speaker 1: looking at this team as possibly a team that could

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Speaker 1: win the division, and two weeks later they lose to

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Speaker 1: the Jets and the Browns and you're looking at completely different.

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Speaker 1: So these teams changed their power rating week by week.

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Speaker 1: So I think if you find an edge and you

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Speaker 1: want to get out of ahead of it, you definitely

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Speaker 1: want to bet this now. But I don't personally have

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Speaker 1: enough Payton moment.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think Rams plus one ninety five

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Speaker 2: and you're basically you're getting two to one on what

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Speaker 2: I'm saying is close to a coin flip. We know

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Speaker 2: all about the Cliff Kingsbury collapses the second half of

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Speaker 2: the season, so maybe that's over, but we have a

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Speaker 2: lot of evidence against it. The Cardinals still play at

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Speaker 2: Seattle at Dallas, they still have that Rams game, so

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Speaker 2: I like the Rams team a little better. They just

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Speaker 2: added von Miller. I trust both sides better. I like

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Speaker 2: the coaching way better, and I think their schedule is

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Speaker 2: a little softer as well, so they're game back and

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Speaker 2: really game and a half with that loss. But to me,

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Speaker 2: that's my favorite division play. But I think there is

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Speaker 2: some other value in some of the other divisions too.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so we're gonna go with the most exciting division

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Speaker 1: right now, the division that I don't think people saw

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Speaker 1: this comment when you when you look at these teams,

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Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Chargers, the Las Vegas Raiders, Can't City Chief,

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Speaker 1: Denver Broncos, all of them have five wins. So we're

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Speaker 1: gonna go with the AFC West. I'm really curious to

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Speaker 1: know what you found value in here, because this is

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Speaker 1: this is this is probably a shocker for a lot

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Speaker 1: of people.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is this division is very frustrating

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Speaker 2: to me personally because, as you recall, you and I

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Speaker 2: both were big on the Denver Broncos coming to the season. Uh,

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Speaker 2: you have them in the playoffs. I had the Broncos

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Speaker 2: as my division winner, a shock division winner. They are

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Speaker 2: nine to one. They're my worst first division winner. I

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Speaker 2: can't get there on Denver. As I look at each

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Speaker 2: one of these teams. Again, you gotta check the schedule,

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Speaker 2: and as I'm kind of thinking, Okay, who wins this game?

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Speaker 2: Who loses? Every time I looked at the Chargers sched

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Speaker 2: the Chief schedule, the Raiders schedule, and I got to

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Speaker 2: a Broncos game, I was like, oh, well, they'll probably

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Speaker 2: win that game. So that kind of told me, yeah,

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Speaker 2: the Broncos, Like, look, we hadn't even been talking about

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Speaker 2: them in this right now if they hadn't just beat Dallas.

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Speaker 2: So I only it's happening for Denver they could be

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Speaker 2: in the mix. But I have them around eight to

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Speaker 2: ten wins. I think that, you know, the other three teams,

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Speaker 2: it's very close. The Chargers still to play the Giants

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Speaker 2: and the Texans. They get to play Cincinnati and Denver twice,

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Speaker 2: which it helps that they play them late in the

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Speaker 2: season rather than earlier. Cincinnati is maybe slowing down. Denver

330
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Speaker 2: certainly looked better early in the year than later, so

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Speaker 2: that could be good. Charges are too, and er in

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Speaker 2: the division, so that helps. So the Charges are the

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Speaker 2: favorite here. I think they're the correct favorite. I'm also

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Speaker 2: not really sold on betting them. The metrics for this

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Speaker 2: team just not great. We've talked about them a lot

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Speaker 2: this year. They still haven't found a way to get

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Speaker 2: going on the early downs. They're kind of grading out

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Speaker 2: as like an average ish offensive team and a below

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Speaker 2: average or bad defensive team. Like the metrics just don't

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Speaker 2: support what we thought were seeing. I think if you

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Speaker 2: want to bet the Chargers rather than taking the division,

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Speaker 2: Brandon Staley is plus seven to fifty to win Coach

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Speaker 2: of the Year. So I think I'd rather play that angle.

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Speaker 2: You know, we love to give Coach of the Year

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Speaker 2: to first year guys, so not like, you know, he's

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Speaker 2: got to beat out Kingsbury, Rabel some other guys there.

347
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Speaker 2: But if you like the Chargers, I think that's the

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Speaker 2: better play. The Chiefs. Man, I know it's Patrick Mahomes,

349
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Speaker 2: but it's just not it's not Patrick Mahomes. His numbers

350
00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:33,000
Speaker 2: aren't good, the offense isn't good. Honestly, the defense might

351
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Speaker 2: be almost good as the offense the last few weeks,

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Speaker 2: and that kind of tells you all that you need

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Speaker 2: to know. So here's the team that I like in

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Speaker 2: the division. As the last man standing. I kind of

355
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Speaker 2: like the Raiders. I honestly think the Raiders might just

356
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Speaker 2: be the best team in the division right now. Like,

357
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Speaker 2: I just think that they are the best all around team.

358
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Speaker 2: Derek Carr is playing well again. The defense really has

359
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Speaker 2: been good. Like the Raiders are pretty clearly the best

360
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Speaker 2: defense in the division right The d line has been

361
00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:03,320
Speaker 2: great there the passer, it's tough. They play the Chiefs,

362
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Speaker 2: Spangles and Cowboys next, so three very toss up these

363
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Speaker 2: sort of games. It could go south. But I'm seeing

364
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Speaker 2: the Raiders' highest plus six hundred. I think it's kind

365
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Speaker 2: of a three way race between the Chargers, Chiefs, and

366
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Speaker 2: the Raiders. I don't mind the six hundred. I think

367
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Speaker 2: they got a shot here.

368
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Speaker 1: I'm not mad at that. I mean, you are right

369
00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:23,399
Speaker 1: about the Raiders having the best defense. The twelve is

370
00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:26,120
Speaker 1: success rate. When you look at the Chiefs, obviously their

371
00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:29,680
Speaker 1: thirty first. When you look at the Chargers, their thirtieth

372
00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:32,800
Speaker 1: in success rate on defense, and they're dealing with injuries

373
00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:35,560
Speaker 1: to their cornerbacks of Santhe Samuel Junior is out, so

374
00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:38,359
Speaker 1: they can't stop the run. They're one of the worst

375
00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:43,200
Speaker 1: run defenses in the league right now. I'm not mad

376
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Speaker 1: at this. I'm not mad at this play at all. Obviously,

377
00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:47,760
Speaker 1: the Denver Broncos they've been selling some pieces, they got

378
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Speaker 1: rid of Von Miller, They've been banged up all year,

379
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Speaker 1: so I just don't think. I think the Broncos are

380
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Speaker 1: probably gonna finish last in the division. And the interesting

381
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Speaker 1: thing about that game against the Cowboys is that the

382
00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:02,280
Speaker 1: Cowboys were in Denver territory twice with the score of

383
00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:04,600
Speaker 1: zero zero, and I think if they convert one of those,

384
00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:07,480
Speaker 1: the Cowboys probably win that game and the game end.

385
00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:11,560
Speaker 1: I'm taking a life on its own. So the funny

386
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Speaker 1: thing about this is that the Chiefs actually have a

387
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Speaker 1: negative point differential. They have a point differential of minus six,

388
00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:21,720
Speaker 1: the Charges have a point differential of minus two, and

389
00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,720
Speaker 1: the Broncos actually have the best point differential at plus

390
00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:28,160
Speaker 1: thirty four. But I think we all know a lot

391
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Speaker 1: of that came from playing some week week games week

392
00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,080
Speaker 1: opponents to start the season, and then they blew out

393
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Speaker 1: the Cowboys. So I'm not buying it. But the Raiders

394
00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:40,280
Speaker 1: have a point differential of plus said it, so I

395
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Speaker 1: like this pick a lot. I think it's a good

396
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Speaker 1: value pick.

397
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Speaker 2: Yeah, the Raiders. I mean, if you better, you need

398
00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:47,479
Speaker 2: to know it's high variance because what we don't know

399
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Speaker 2: right now, well, Rihemond. I have no idea is what

400
00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:52,520
Speaker 2: this looks like behind the scenes, Like it's it has

401
00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:56,320
Speaker 2: been a tumultuous season, John Gruden thing, the Henry Ruggs thing.

402
00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:59,480
Speaker 2: So it's possible that this is just ready to break down.

403
00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:02,119
Speaker 2: Like this could very south. They're five and three. You

404
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Speaker 2: could finish with like seven wins and that wouldn't be

405
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Speaker 2: shocking to me. But they've played well, and they've played

406
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Speaker 2: well recently even with some of this happening. So if

407
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Speaker 2: you know that that sort of stuff can have in

408
00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,879
Speaker 2: galvanizing effect too, and if it really, you know, bans

409
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Speaker 2: this team together while the division is pretty winnable, I

410
00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:20,920
Speaker 2: think it could go the other way. So I don't

411
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Speaker 2: mind taking the high variance when I'm getting the plus

412
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Speaker 2: six hundred here, Yeah, I'm not mad.

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Speaker 1: At that at all. So we're gonna go with the AFC.

414
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Speaker 1: Nor if we got the Baltimore Ravens minus one sixty

415
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Speaker 1: five Cleveland Browns plus four fifty, Pittsburgh still is plus

416
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Speaker 1: six fifty in a Cincinnati Bengals plus seven hundred. It's

417
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Speaker 1: a really competitive division. At times, it looked like one

418
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Speaker 1: team was gonna run away from it. What are you thinking? Here.

419
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. I don't know

420
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Speaker 2: what's happened in this division. I don't want to bet it.

421
00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:54,520
Speaker 2: The closest I can find to a value here is

422
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Speaker 2: I actually thought that Pittsburgh at six point fifty might

423
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Speaker 2: have maybe a little a little bit of some possibilities here,

424
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Speaker 2: just on the basis of Look, Number one, the defense

425
00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:07,960
Speaker 2: clearly is playing really well. Again, we know that they'll

426
00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:11,719
Speaker 2: be good. Number two, it's Pittsburgh. Every year they managed

427
00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:13,960
Speaker 2: to eke out, you know, get over five hundred, They

428
00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:17,679
Speaker 2: get their wins. They're a tough home field advantage, you know.

429
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Speaker 2: We just we know that Pittsburgh produces. I think they

430
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Speaker 2: could be in the mix here. Then I watched the

431
00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:26,639
Speaker 2: game last night. The Steelers. They're just not good. The

432
00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:29,760
Speaker 2: offense is terrible. We know this, but it's just nice

433
00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:32,600
Speaker 2: to get reminded every now and then, Like Pittsburgh absolutely

434
00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:35,679
Speaker 2: should have lost to Chicago. The Rafts definitely bailed them

435
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:39,159
Speaker 2: out of multiple times, and even you know, near the end,

436
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:43,120
Speaker 2: it's almost lost. Anyway, So I think Baltimore, I don't

437
00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:45,760
Speaker 2: really trust them. I think they're probably the right favorite anyway.

438
00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:48,480
Speaker 2: Cleveland has a lot of toss up games coming up,

439
00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:51,680
Speaker 2: so Cleveland to me is kind of like the Raiders

440
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:54,320
Speaker 2: and that they seem high variants like this might just

441
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,439
Speaker 2: not be happening. Baker might not be healthy. You know.

442
00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:00,600
Speaker 2: We know that they looked great without OBJ for one game,

443
00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:03,439
Speaker 2: but is that a thing or not? I don't know.

444
00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:06,520
Speaker 2: I can't get there. The Bengals have a really rough

445
00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:08,800
Speaker 2: schedule coming up. This was a rough loss for them

446
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 2: that they needed to get. I don't get excited about

447
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:12,320
Speaker 2: any of the value in this division. I think I'm

448
00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:14,040
Speaker 2: just gonna stay away.

449
00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think to me, Baltimore is the best team

450
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 1: in this division. Before the Browns have still been dealing

451
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,639
Speaker 1: with injuries. It came out today to Nick Chubb actually

452
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:26,679
Speaker 1: tested positive for COVID. We don't know if it's a

453
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:32,200
Speaker 1: false positive or not, but I just it just feels

454
00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:34,760
Speaker 1: like the brown This was the Browns division to win,

455
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:39,440
Speaker 1: and every single thing went wrong. Right now, I'm looking

456
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 1: at Lamar Jackson as possibly the MVP because he continues

457
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,680
Speaker 1: to put this team when they're back despite slow starts.

458
00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:48,160
Speaker 1: So if I had to go with anybody, I would

459
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 1: go with them. But like I agree with you, I

460
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:51,120
Speaker 1: don't think there's a ton of value here.

461
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I will say Baltimore. If you do want to

462
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 2: bet them and get any value, you gotta do it now.

463
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 2: They're playing the Dolphins and the Bears and that, so

464
00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:00,919
Speaker 2: they're probably gonna get dat and two really tough after that,

465
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 2: so you gotta hang on for the ride. But if

466
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:04,600
Speaker 2: you do want to better, it's it's now or never.

467
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:07,359
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, without a doubt. And I mean, we have

468
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:10,199
Speaker 1: two final divisions we aren't really going to cover. Obviously.

469
00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:13,919
Speaker 1: We have the afcast. We have Buffalo Bills minus seven

470
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 1: hundred to win a division despite being up just one game.

471
00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:19,879
Speaker 1: The New England Patriots are plus four point forty to

472
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,040
Speaker 1: win the division. I'm not gonna lie to you. I

473
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,159
Speaker 1: think there's some value on it on the New England Patriots.

474
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:24,640
Speaker 2: Right now.

475
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 1: You're playing good football on both sides of the ball.

476
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:31,040
Speaker 1: And I look at this Buffalo Bills team. Josh Allen

477
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:33,840
Speaker 1: still leads a lot to be desired, and I think

478
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:36,199
Speaker 1: he's come down to earth in a major way. The

479
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,199
Speaker 1: defense is still slid, but like I said earlier, they

480
00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:40,680
Speaker 1: haven't really beatn anybody. So if I had to take

481
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:42,800
Speaker 1: anybody out of all these divisions, I had to take

482
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:46,080
Speaker 1: a Flyer. I'm probably taking the New England Patriots. These

483
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:49,880
Speaker 1: two teams play twice, and you never know. I think

484
00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 1: this division still goes through Foxborough. You have the NFC South.

485
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:56,120
Speaker 1: I think that's all wrapped up with Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

486
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:58,439
Speaker 1: So when we need to go there, do you have

487
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 1: anything on year? Yeah, So I try to do a

488
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:02,640
Speaker 1: little digging here.

489
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 2: Obviously we just give this to Aaron Donald every year,

490
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:07,439
Speaker 2: and you know, it's just kind of the fat of company.

491
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:09,919
Speaker 2: So I think Donald could have win again. You know,

492
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 2: you look at the top of the list. Miles Garrett,

493
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 2: he makes sense. T J Watt, I think probably would

494
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 2: be my most likely winner. He's at plus four to

495
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 2: fifty m seeing he finished top three the last two years.

496
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:21,639
Speaker 2: But Doug a little deeper. I was like, Okay, is

497
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:24,160
Speaker 2: there any one down the list who could surprise here?

498
00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:27,120
Speaker 2: And it's interesting, like you and I both obviously covered

499
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 2: the NBA as well. In the NBA, the defensive Player

500
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,960
Speaker 2: of the Year is find somebody who's the best defensive

501
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,440
Speaker 2: player on one of those like top three defensive teams.

502
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:39,639
Speaker 2: And what's interesting if we look at these names, Miles Garrett, TJ. Watt,

503
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:43,359
Speaker 2: Aaron Donald, Trayvon Diggs. These are not necessarily the best

504
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 2: defenses in the NFL right now, So Arizona Cardinals have been.

505
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 2: You know, it's the Cardinals and the Bills. They're the

506
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:52,919
Speaker 2: top two defensive football Chandler Jones. I'm seeing at some

507
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 2: books at plus four thousand, so forty to one. Cardinals

508
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 2: are number two in defensive dv Away. I actually think

509
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 2: the defense has been the strength of the team, like

510
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 2: they've been what's been holding them together. You know, we

511
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,359
Speaker 2: saw how good they were this week, even with Kyler

512
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,160
Speaker 2: and all the offense out. I think Chandler Jones could

513
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 2: get the best Player, Best Defense sort of treatment. He

514
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:15,119
Speaker 2: had five sacks the first game, only one since. But

515
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 2: I think you know, he can pile him up in

516
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 2: a hurry. You can get to like fifteen or twenty

517
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:22,440
Speaker 2: pretty easily. He also finished number two in this race

518
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,919
Speaker 2: two years ago, number three in twenty seventeen. So we

519
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 2: know that people know Chandler Jones is good. They like

520
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:31,360
Speaker 2: to vote for him. Hit a rough October, played through

521
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 2: some injury, missed a couple of games, but he has

522
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 2: his best game this week since September. He had that's

523
00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:39,479
Speaker 2: when his other sack came. So I think we've been

524
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 2: out of the Cardinals all year. It's too late for

525
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 2: me to salvage that. I can't bet on Kyler anymore.

526
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 2: I can't bet on Cliff anymore. The odds are gone.

527
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:49,440
Speaker 2: Chandler Jones to me plus four thousand, I think there's

528
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:52,880
Speaker 2: some value there. It's the wrong number. If the Cardinals

529
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 2: really are this good, I think that he could possibly

530
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 2: win it.

531
00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 1: That's a reallyance. I didn't expect you to say that.

532
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 1: So the favorite right now is Miles Garrett, Like, do

533
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 1: you what do you think of him? And then I

534
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,399
Speaker 1: also love to hear what you think about Strayvon Diggs.

535
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 1: Obviously he has the numbers with all the interceptions, Like,

536
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:13,400
Speaker 1: what are your thoughts on those guys?

537
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think I think Garrett, Watt, Donald

538
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 2: and Diggs those are the top four favorites. I think

539
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:21,400
Speaker 2: they're the right four favorites. They're the guys who one

540
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 2: of them is most likely going to win. I just

541
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 2: I don't have a good feel for how the voting

542
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 2: goes on this. I'm not sure I really trust that

543
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,120
Speaker 2: the voters have a good feel for how this goes either.

544
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 2: You know, we just don't know. How to quantify defense.

545
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:37,679
Speaker 2: So I wouldn't be shocked if Miles Garrett wins. You know,

546
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:40,160
Speaker 2: he does still have the helmet swinging thing. I don't

547
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 2: know if the media is especially excited to reward him.

548
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 2: I could see that costing him a few votes. I

549
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 2: think t J. A. Watt. You know, he's been high

550
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 2: in the voting for a few years. Donald Like, we

551
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 2: tend to see the same guys get votes year after year.

552
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:57,560
Speaker 2: So I don't love Trayvon Diggs as chances. You know,

553
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 2: obviously he's had the huge interceptions and you can't just

554
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 2: throw those out. We've also given up some big plays

555
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:05,639
Speaker 2: and it's a tough spot for Corner to get it. Like,

556
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 2: is he really going to have like six, seven, eight

557
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 2: more interceptions this year to get there? Like, I don't

558
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,679
Speaker 2: think so. So I wouldn't bet Diggs. I wouldn't bet

559
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 2: any of those three. I just don't think there's much

560
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 2: value there. I was just trying to find, Okay, who

561
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 2: else belongs in that list of possibilities. I think Chandler Jones.

562
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:23,919
Speaker 2: I think he should be more like a ten to

563
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 2: one fifteen to one sort of guy, So I think

564
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 2: he'll end up being one of those other guys, but

565
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:30,200
Speaker 2: I think Jones could be in the mix.

566
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 1: That's fair. Do you think it's worth it to when

567
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,440
Speaker 1: you look, because I think Miles Garrett is the big

568
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:37,680
Speaker 1: one obviously, he's averaging one point three sacks per game

569
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 1: and he's in line with the NFL single season record

570
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 1: of twenty two point five with twelve sacks right now.

571
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 1: So do you think it's worth it to maybe take

572
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 1: Chandler Jones and then hedge a little bit with Miles

573
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 1: Garrett with him as the favorite, with I think he's

574
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 1: plus two to fifty now, so you can get some

575
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 1: some plus money there. And do you think he's worth

576
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 1: at the hedge there or do you think he doesn't.

577
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:03,760
Speaker 1: He's not too far ahead of the other guys that TJ.

578
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:04,680
Speaker 1: Watt and are down.

579
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't. I'm not really big on like taking

580
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 2: a favorite and hedging, Like if I want to bet

581
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 2: Miles Garrett, I'm just gonna bet Miles Garrett and then

582
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:16,200
Speaker 2: leave the other names out of it. To me though, again, defense,

583
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:18,360
Speaker 2: we just I don't know what people are voting on.

584
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 2: Sacks are volatile, like we look, we saw Chandler Jones

585
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 2: five sacks in the first week and then just nothing

586
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,919
Speaker 2: for two months since then. So Miles Garrett, great numbers

587
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 2: right now, But well, you know, why won't Clowney get

588
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:32,840
Speaker 2: sacks the next few weeks? So why won't the Brown

589
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:35,760
Speaker 2: just not rush the passer that well, you know, maybe

590
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 2: as a bad matchup, Like it's sacks are so volatile

591
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 2: that the same thing with Trayvon Diggs, the interceptions, like

592
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:44,159
Speaker 2: when it's relying on the one stat that you see

593
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,159
Speaker 2: and not just Aaron Donald is God, let's vote for

594
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 2: him again. And like Miles Garrett is really good too.

595
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 2: Just to be very clear, it's not just the number,

596
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 2: but we're relying on the number for voters. I don't

597
00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 2: want to bet Aaron Donald on the basis of I

598
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 2: think he's gonna break the SAS record. If he does,

599
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:04,359
Speaker 2: he's the winner. You lost, So like, if he does it,

600
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 2: that's the win. I just want to bet on it

601
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 2: because it's just too unpredictable.

602
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:12,880
Speaker 1: Yes, fair, Okay, let's move on. We got mvp' I mean,

603
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 1: this is this is the granddaddy of them all. We

604
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 1: got Josh Allen at plus three fifty, Tom Brady at

605
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 1: plus four hundred, Kyler Murray and plus seven fifty Matthew

606
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:26,679
Speaker 1: Stafford at plus eight hundred, Aaron Rodgers at plus twelve hundred,

607
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 1: Deck at plus twelve hundred, Lamar Jackson at plus fourteen hundred,

608
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 1: and Justin Herber at plus two thousand. I'm gonna throw

609
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 1: another name into the mix, Ryan Tannehills plus thirty four hundred,

610
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 1: and we all saw Derek can't reas out, so I'm

611
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 1: interested to hear you take on MVP right now.

612
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 2: That's so funny because on our last podcast that we

613
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 2: recorded Sunday night, we had a section with the Titans

614
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 2: rams and I had in my notes Ryan Tannehill MVP

615
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 2: question mark, and I was like, I'm gonna throw this

616
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 2: out to Raheem. His head is going to explode at

617
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 2: the thought of Ryan Tannehill as the MV. We were

618
00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 2: running a lot on time, so I was like, Nah,

619
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 2: it's too much of a long shot. I'm gonna cut it.

620
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 2: You said thirty four hundred, he's plus four thousand at BETMGM.

621
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,320
Speaker 2: I've seen him as one hundred to one at like

622
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 2: real books that you can bet on. I think that's crazy.

623
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 2: The Titans are the one seed right now. We know

624
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 2: that the MVP basically is a quarterback of the one

625
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 2: seed or quarterback of at least the top two seed.

626
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 2: I think something like ten in the last thirteen years,

627
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 2: it's been the one seed and then it's usually the

628
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 2: two seed. Otherwise there's only one exception in that mix,

629
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:33,560
Speaker 2: and that was Peyton Manning, who just gets his own rules.

630
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 2: So again, you know, we know it's a quarterback. Derrick

631
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 2: Henry is out. I don't think Derrick Henry is ever

632
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 2: necessarily real candidate here. I don't mind. You know, she

633
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,800
Speaker 2: put a little bit on Tannehill if you just think, yeah,

634
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 2: why not, like maybe they just you know, Hula Jones

635
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:52,080
Speaker 2: is looking good. AJ Brown is good, I think too.

636
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes is eighty to one at some books. Again,

637
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 2: Mahomes is on pace for forty eight hundred and thirty

638
00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 2: eight touchdowns. If the Chiefs win the division, it's gonna

639
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 2: be because Mahomes figured it out and got going. It's

640
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 2: gonna be because he like upped his pace and finished

641
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 2: at like fifty five hundred and forty five touchdowns. If

642
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes has fifty five hundred yards and forty five touchdowns,

643
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 2: he's gonna get some votes. Like he just is. He's

644
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 2: not gonna be the one seed, but he might get

645
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 2: his own rules like Peyton Manning. I don't mind the

646
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 2: long shots. Here's one thing about the guys who are

647
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 2: You're the real candidates here, So looking at just the odds,

648
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 2: I'm not saying these guys can't win. Here're the guys

649
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 2: that I'm not betting. I'm not betting Josh Allen. I

650
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 2: think it's ludicrous that he's the favorite. It doesn't make

651
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 2: any sense to me. There's I don't get it. Like

652
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 2: we talked about this, it's just a vote on Buffalo.

653
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 2: But like Josh Allen is not the MVP's numbers are

654
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 2: not good. I'm certainly not taking out the odds. Kyler Murray,

655
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 2: I think he absolutely can win MVP. I don't trust

656
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 2: the health. I don't you know. We talked about the

657
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 2: Cardinals second half. That's a worry, but we saw last

658
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 2: year Kyler looked awesome, got injured, was never the same again.

659
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 2: So there is a little value at seven to fifty.

660
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 2: I don't trust enough to beat it. Aaron Rodgers, No,

661
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 2: I'm out. We're not taking a back to back winner.

662
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 2: That almost never happens. And yeah, he's got a few

663
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 2: media issues. Right now with the voters, So not going

664
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 2: with Rogers Justin Herbert not gonna do it for me

665
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 2: another year in the future. Charges aren't good enough. Matt Stafford,

666
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 2: I thought that he was in the mix, and then

667
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 2: I watched at football. It is rough, and I think

668
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 2: that if the Rams are still this good, mcvay' is

669
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 2: gonna get a lot of the credit. Cooper Cup's going

670
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 2: to get some of the credit. I don't know if

671
00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 2: I can see Stafford. You know, anytime he's had that

672
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:36,360
Speaker 2: chance to get the big moment, he doesn't get the

673
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 2: big moment. He has the wrong moment. So before I

674
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 2: talk about some of the guys I do like, do

675
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 2: you disagree on any of those guys that I don't like.

676
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with any of those guys. Obviously, you

677
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 1: mentioned the caller Murray injury. Stafford, who I told Chad

678
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:53,960
Speaker 1: Milman and Simon Hunter on the Favorite podcast. To me,

679
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 1: he's just the modern day Jeff George. He has this

680
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 1: rocket arm with all this talent, but he just doesn't

681
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 1: have it in team to take his good game to

682
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 1: great and so he's definitely not it. I think you

683
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 1: nailed all the guys who I don't like, so I'm

684
00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 1: interested to see what you do.

685
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:12,600
Speaker 2: Like. Yeah, So that basically that leaves three. And the

686
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 2: guy that I think is gonna win is the same

687
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 2: guy that I've told you is gonna win all year

688
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 2: long since before the season started. Tom Brady. He's finally

689
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 2: in line to be the favorite. Now tom Brady's coming

690
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 2: off of bye week. Heading into the bye week, tom

691
00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 2: Brady led the NFL in completions, passing, attempts, yards, and touchdowns.

692
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 2: That's everything. That's all the stats. And oh, by the way,

693
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:38,560
Speaker 2: it's tom Brady the goat. We don't need any narrative reasons.

694
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:42,080
Speaker 2: Like he's like an eighty year old that's winning everything

695
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 2: for the Super Bowl, defending champions and it's insane. He's

696
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 2: finally is the favorite. I think he's going to win.

697
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 2: I genuinely do. He's down to four to one, So

698
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 2: I think that you missed a chance on a lot

699
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 2: of the value here if you want to do a value.

700
00:32:56,960 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 2: But if you're coming in clean, so I already have

701
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 2: a lot of tom Brady stock, So if you're listening,

702
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 2: there's no reason for me to add tom Brady stock

703
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:07,479
Speaker 2: at four to one. I got him at fourteen to

704
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 2: one preseason and bet him along the way if you're

705
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 2: clean and you're looking to bat or if you're looking

706
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 2: to hedge a little bit the two guys, I think

707
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 2: that there's some value on betting Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson.

708
00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 2: So Dak Prescott, it's a best player on best team,

709
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:27,040
Speaker 2: case on America's team, it's got to mean. I think

710
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 2: that the Cowboys beat the Bucks for the one seed.

711
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 2: And again that's another thing with Brady. We think they're

712
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:33,520
Speaker 2: the favorite for the one seed. They're gonna get thirteen,

713
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 2: fourteen to fifteen wins. Then you've got Tom Brady with

714
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 2: all those stats. Getting the one seed is just a

715
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 2: really tough like who's gonna beat that? It's tough to

716
00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 2: beat that argument. Dak with worst stats on a worst

717
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 2: team is not going to get the job done. And

718
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:50,000
Speaker 2: he's got the injury right now. So I think at

719
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 2: twelve to one, it's a shot. But you really need

720
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 2: him to You need the Cowboys to pass the Bucks,

721
00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:59,320
Speaker 2: and that's not necessarily going to happen, but I think

722
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 2: it's in play. I'm curious what you think about Lamar Jackson.

723
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 2: He's been getting a lot of buzz, even just this morning.

724
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 2: I've seen a lot of people talk about Lamar Jackson

725
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:11,280
Speaker 2: fourteen to one. Here's the thing. Lamar Jackson right now

726
00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:14,719
Speaker 2: is on pace for only twenty eight passing touchdowns. He's

727
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:17,880
Speaker 2: only run two rushing touchdowns all season. They came in

728
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:22,360
Speaker 2: the same game, So his pace is thirty two touchdowns

729
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:25,560
Speaker 2: for the entire season combined. Counting the rushing touchdowns, He's

730
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:28,719
Speaker 2: only had three games the entire season with more than

731
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 2: one touchdown. Tom Brady has five games with four or

732
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 2: more touchdowns. And I know it's not all about the touchdowns.

733
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 2: Lamari's on pace for almost six thousand yards if you

734
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:42,480
Speaker 2: add in the rushing and like, like, here's the thing,

735
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:45,680
Speaker 2: what is most valuable? We don't know what most valuable

736
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 2: is Lamar Jackson absolutely is the most valuable of these

737
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:53,040
Speaker 2: guys to his team. If Lamar Jackson disappeared or went

738
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 2: into COVID protocol, the Ravens are absolutely screwed. They have

739
00:34:56,880 --> 00:35:01,080
Speaker 2: no shot. He's everything. He should be the most valuable player.

740
00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:03,560
Speaker 2: That's not how we give the award out. We give

741
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 2: it to the guy that scores lots of touchdowns on

742
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 2: the best team. The Bucks are way better than the Ravens.

743
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:14,919
Speaker 2: Brady's touchdowns are gonna almost double Lamar Jackson's. Possibly that's

744
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:18,799
Speaker 2: the case against Lamar. He doesn't fit the profile that

745
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:21,520
Speaker 2: we normally give out MVP to, So I think it's

746
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:23,760
Speaker 2: an interesting case. I think it is odds seem wrong,

747
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:25,719
Speaker 2: but when you look at it, he doesn't match what

748
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:28,759
Speaker 2: voters are voting for. If the season goes as well

749
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 2: as it could for these candidates, Tom Brady is going

750
00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 2: to lose to Lamar Jackson or to Kyler Murray, Like

751
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 2: those guys have the highest ceiling if things continue to

752
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:40,759
Speaker 2: go right for them. I just think with Kyler there's

753
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 2: the ankle problem and not necessarily trusting still Arizona. With Baltimore,

754
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:48,919
Speaker 2: it's it's almost the Lamar is too valuable because he's

755
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 2: doing so much for them that the one game when

756
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 2: he doesn't have a good game, like Tom Brady cannot

757
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:56,200
Speaker 2: have a great game but still throw two touchdowns and

758
00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:58,240
Speaker 2: get the win and it doesn't really hurt his candidacy

759
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:00,239
Speaker 2: because the rest of the team is so good. If

760
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 2: Lamart doesn't have a good game, they get blown out,

761
00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:04,680
Speaker 2: and then it's like, oh man, Lamar not good enough.

762
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 2: He's got to be a better. So Tom Brady's gonna

763
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:09,600
Speaker 2: be there. He's gonna be in the mix. And it's

764
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 2: a bet on that and a bet a little bit

765
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:13,279
Speaker 2: against Lamar and Kyler are doing enough.

766
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:17,840
Speaker 1: We've broke down MVP. What are you thinking for Offensive

767
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 1: Player of the Year. I think this is an award

768
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 1: that's always been so complicated to me because it almost

769
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:27,799
Speaker 1: feels like the MVP is a quarterbacks award. We haven't

770
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 1: seen a running back yet, one since I think Adrian

771
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:33,840
Speaker 1: Peterson in twenty twelve when he ran for two thousand yards,

772
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 1: And it feels like the Offensive Player of the Year

773
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 1: award is for everybody else, but occasionally the quarterbacks get

774
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:40,840
Speaker 1: him too. So what are you thinking here? I know

775
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry, he got hurt, he was on a crazy pace.

776
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 1: He's got banged up, so he's out of it. So

777
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 1: what's your thoughts on this one?

778
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, so we save this one for a last because

779
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:52,320
Speaker 2: this is actually my favorite bet on the entire podcast.

780
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 2: If you're gonna bet one thing, this is the one

781
00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 2: you have to bet this. Here's the reason Derrick Henry

782
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:00,759
Speaker 2: was the Offensive Player of the Year. Like this was over.

783
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 2: I don't remember what the odds were hand checked for

784
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 2: a while, it was over. Derrick Henry was the winner.

785
00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 2: This goes to running backs pretty often. He was smashing everyone,

786
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:12,800
Speaker 2: smashing all the numbers. It was done. Now Derrick Henry's

787
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:16,319
Speaker 2: not the winner because he's out, and I think that

788
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 2: the books haven't adjusted enough yet. If you look at

789
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 2: the books, it basically look at the odds. Every look

790
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:24,440
Speaker 2: the books that decided. Okay, if Derrick Henry is not

791
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:26,960
Speaker 2: the winner, I guess Cooper Cup is the winner. And

792
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:29,479
Speaker 2: here's the thing. Cooper Cup has been really good. He's

793
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 2: so far seventy four catches, thy nineteen yards. We're halfway

794
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 2: through the season on Thy nineteen yards, ten touchdowns. All

795
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 2: three of those lead the league. If he does that

796
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 2: all season long, and he has so far, he's on

797
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 2: pace for almost two thousand yards, nineteen touchdowns, one hundred

798
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:48,800
Speaker 2: and forty catches, not quite the record there. If he

799
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:52,799
Speaker 2: does that all season, he probably wins. But I don't

800
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:56,640
Speaker 2: think he's gonna win. We've had two receivers in NFL

801
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 2: history have won this award. One of them was Jerry

802
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:02,800
Speaker 2: Rice twice and is maybe the best player in NFL

803
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 2: history period. The other one was Michael Thomas two years ago,

804
00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:08,840
Speaker 2: Michael Thomas had one hundred forty one catches set the

805
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 2: record for receptions in the season. It's in play for

806
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:14,920
Speaker 2: Cup here, but remember you're buying high on Cup, like

807
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:17,360
Speaker 2: this is the best he has been already, And I

808
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:20,600
Speaker 2: just think people gonna look at him and be like, really, really,

809
00:38:20,640 --> 00:38:23,360
Speaker 2: that's the best offensive player in the league, the white

810
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:26,319
Speaker 2: system slot receiver for the Rams. That's the guy we're

811
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:28,600
Speaker 2: gonna give the award to. And I don't think that's fair.

812
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:30,239
Speaker 2: I don't think that's right. He's not even a slot receiver.

813
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:33,040
Speaker 2: It's not a system thing. Like he's been awesome. But

814
00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 2: I think people are gonna give credit to McVeigh, They're

815
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:38,319
Speaker 2: gonna give credit to Stafford. I think it's insane that

816
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 2: he has near even odds to win this award with

817
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:43,279
Speaker 2: half of the season to go, Like, it's just not

818
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 2: that conclusive. He can get hurt just like Derrick Henry did,

819
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:48,359
Speaker 2: or he gonna have off game a few games. So

820
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:52,400
Speaker 2: I think because of that, there's big value here because

821
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:55,120
Speaker 2: if you have one guy priced at basically even odds,

822
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 2: so Cup versus the field almost I'm taking the field.

823
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:01,479
Speaker 2: So now the question is which guys in the field

824
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 2: that you want to play. So before I get into that,

825
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 2: what do you think about argument so far? Do you

826
00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:07,400
Speaker 2: think Cup wins US or is this open?

827
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 1: I don't really have a strong opinion on it. I

828
00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:12,560
Speaker 1: think one of the interesting things that I saw today

829
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:15,520
Speaker 1: was that, you know, Cooper Cup's father is actually in

830
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:20,280
Speaker 1: a fantasy league and Cooper Cup has such a monster

831
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 1: season that they're no longer allowing his father to draft

832
00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 1: his son as a courtesy next season, He's actually going

833
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:30,320
Speaker 1: to have to compete for him. So at plus one thirty,

834
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:32,319
Speaker 1: I don't know if there's a ton of value, but

835
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:35,400
Speaker 1: he is having a monster season. Obviously, they traded to

836
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:37,759
Speaker 1: Shaun Jackson and they're just going to force the ball

837
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:40,879
Speaker 1: to Cooper Cups. So we are in a passing league. Now,

838
00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:42,799
Speaker 1: maybe we could see a ship to where we're seeing

839
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:45,839
Speaker 1: more wide receivers win this war, but I mean, I'm

840
00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 1: curious to where you find value.

841
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:51,879
Speaker 2: So eight of the last fourteen winners were quarterbacks, so

842
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:55,240
Speaker 2: it's not quite as dominant as MVP is just always

843
00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:58,560
Speaker 2: a quarterback. This is still over fifty percent quarterback though,

844
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 2: so we're still you know, obviously you touch the ball.

845
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:03,240
Speaker 2: Every player getting a chance to put up some big numbers.

846
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:07,120
Speaker 2: I just think that the books just haven't considered this enough. Like,

847
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:09,279
Speaker 2: if you look at the favorites, Kyler Murray is the

848
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 2: second favorite. Yeah, sure that makes sense, But Kyler is

849
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 2: no Like he's having this amazing statistical year. This is

850
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:17,240
Speaker 2: a stats award like this is basically the best Fantasy

851
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:22,719
Speaker 2: Player award. Kyler Murray on pace for thirty four passing touchdowns. Okay, sure,

852
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:25,520
Speaker 2: that's fine. He's on pace for three hundred rushing yard

853
00:40:25,520 --> 00:40:28,920
Speaker 2: and six touchdowns. Nolog he's running crazy, Like, Kyler Murray

854
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 2: is a better case to me for MVP if he

855
00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:33,359
Speaker 2: keeps up then for this, just like, oh my god,

856
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 2: what a statistcal year, we have to reward him the

857
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:40,760
Speaker 2: third favorite. Jonathan Taylor. What are we doing? Jonathan Taylor

858
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 2: was on nobody's radar until a week ago when he

859
00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:46,080
Speaker 2: had a monster game on Thursday night against like the

860
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:49,400
Speaker 2: decrepit Jets. Now he's the third favorite to an offensive

861
00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 2: player the year. This is insane. Just because he has

862
00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:53,360
Speaker 2: a touchdown and like five or six straight games like

863
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:55,840
Speaker 2: that doesn't make any sense to me. Devontae Adams is next.

864
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 2: Dond Anams doesn't have a quarterback right now like you

865
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:01,239
Speaker 2: need to be able to produce that. Josh Allen is fifth,

866
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:03,719
Speaker 2: Josh Allen hasn't had a good stats season. I just

867
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:07,160
Speaker 2: think these numbers don't make sense to me. So I'm

868
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:10,279
Speaker 2: looking back at those same MVP quarterbacks. And the thing is, too,

869
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 2: We've seen eight times in history a quarterback has thrown

870
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:18,080
Speaker 2: forty five touchdowns or more. Six of those eight times,

871
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 2: that player one MVP. Six of those eight times, that

872
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:24,719
Speaker 2: player one Offensive Player of the Year. I'm going back

873
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:26,919
Speaker 2: to Tom Brady. I know, I know, it's all Tom

874
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:29,839
Speaker 2: Brady from me. Tom is on pace for fifty six

875
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:33,920
Speaker 2: hundred yards and fifty three touchdowns and that included that

876
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:36,880
Speaker 2: Monsoon game early in the season and then included the

877
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:39,800
Speaker 2: game where he had no touchdowns as well. He still

878
00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:42,920
Speaker 2: is leading all the stats four quarterbacks. He's going to

879
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:46,440
Speaker 2: have all the wins. He's on pace for fifty three touchdowns.

880
00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:48,920
Speaker 2: He's got five of his eight games so far with

881
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 2: that least four touchdown passes. They have all those red

882
00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:54,320
Speaker 2: zone weapons, like if you're looking at somebody else, so

883
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:58,360
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson someone you're needing a touchdown spike. Tom doesn't

884
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:01,719
Speaker 2: need a touchdown spike like he's his whole time with

885
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:05,839
Speaker 2: the Bucks. He's throwing three, four, five touchdowns week after week.

886
00:42:05,920 --> 00:42:08,279
Speaker 2: We've seen it a season and a half now, so

887
00:42:09,200 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 2: I bet this last week. I wanted to write about

888
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:13,399
Speaker 2: it and ran out of time, and I was like, oh, well,

889
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 2: they're on a bye week anyways, it's fine as his

890
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 2: number won't really shift. I got it at forty to

891
00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:20,880
Speaker 2: one last week. I think that's insane. We have a

892
00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:24,120
Speaker 2: dude on pace for fifty six hundred and fifty three

893
00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:27,200
Speaker 2: touchdowns at forty to one to win Offensive Player of

894
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:29,520
Speaker 2: the Year. That line has moved a little bit, but

895
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 2: I'm still seeing at twenty five to one, thirty to one.

896
00:42:32,520 --> 00:42:34,600
Speaker 2: I think that's the guy to bet. If you don't

897
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:36,959
Speaker 2: like Tom Brady, that's fine. You don't have to bet

898
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 2: Tom Brady, but you do need to bet this award

899
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:42,080
Speaker 2: because I don't think it's gonna be Cup. So if

900
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:44,360
Speaker 2: it's not Brady, who do you like? Do you like

901
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 2: Justin Herbert? He's on pace for five thousand yards and

902
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:50,759
Speaker 2: almost forty touchdowns. Do you like Matt Stafford He's had

903
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:53,120
Speaker 2: three touchdowns at least in five of the nine games.

904
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:55,800
Speaker 2: Do you like Dak Prescott he's got huge stats, almost

905
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:59,120
Speaker 2: five thousand yards and forty touchdown pace. Lamar Jackson has

906
00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 2: a good chance to break the rushing record for quarterback.

907
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 2: He might have six thousand yards combined. So I just think,

908
00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:08,080
Speaker 2: I think it's not gonna be cup when you have

909
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:12,040
Speaker 2: quarterbacks putting up those ginormous seasons like we just talked about,

910
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:14,360
Speaker 2: or you could give it to the dude that's just

911
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:16,799
Speaker 2: catching a lot of passes, it's not gonna do it

912
00:43:16,840 --> 00:43:18,799
Speaker 2: for me. I just think we're gonna end up with

913
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:22,600
Speaker 2: a couple of quarterbacks with just gaudy, incredible stats, and

914
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:24,960
Speaker 2: I think that there's a big value here. So I

915
00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 2: would recommend of all these things, find the quarterback or

916
00:43:28,160 --> 00:43:30,200
Speaker 2: who you like. The odds are a wonky and a

917
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:32,640
Speaker 2: way off here. This is the one award that you

918
00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:33,560
Speaker 2: need to bat right now.

919
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:37,399
Speaker 1: That's interesting, And I mean, I don't really have much

920
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 1: of an opinion on this. It's tough for me just

921
00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:43,880
Speaker 1: because I just think the one thing I have to

922
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:46,640
Speaker 1: say about Tom Brady, are you concerned with him fading

923
00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:50,319
Speaker 1: down the stretch? Because we know how forty year old

924
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:52,720
Speaker 1: quarterbacks they fall off a cliff. It's like a boxer

925
00:43:53,239 --> 00:43:55,640
Speaker 1: one minute they're going next minute. They just don't have

926
00:43:55,680 --> 00:43:58,319
Speaker 1: it anymore. We saw it with Peyton Manny. Obviously one

927
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:01,520
Speaker 1: hit could change everything. We're in a different NFL where

928
00:44:01,560 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 1: you can't test the quarterback with playing He might as

929
00:44:04,239 --> 00:44:07,040
Speaker 1: well be playing seven misiscifi right now. So are you

930
00:44:07,120 --> 00:44:10,319
Speaker 1: concerned with Tom Brady falling off door to stretch? At

931
00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:11,080
Speaker 1: some point?

932
00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:14,200
Speaker 2: There's some concern, but I think to me the concern

933
00:44:14,360 --> 00:44:16,799
Speaker 2: is more why maybe wouldn't bet them to win the

934
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 2: Super Bowl? You know, once it gets deep into the season,

935
00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:23,560
Speaker 2: once it gets into the playoffs and there's weather factor.

936
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 2: Possibly Now I think there's some concern, but I think

937
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:29,440
Speaker 2: that there's a chance if he keeps this up by

938
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:31,400
Speaker 2: the time we get to like mid December, it doesn't

939
00:44:31,440 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 2: matter anymore. Like he's gonna be resting the last week

940
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:36,239
Speaker 2: or two because you can be so far ahead on

941
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 2: these things. So and his numbers are so high right now,

942
00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:41,960
Speaker 2: like fifty six hundred and fifty three. Even if he

943
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:44,200
Speaker 2: falls off the pace quite a bit, what does he

944
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:47,960
Speaker 2: finish with only forty five hundred yards and forty five touchdowns?

945
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:51,319
Speaker 2: Like even in those games when Brady doesn't play well,

946
00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:54,000
Speaker 2: when the Bucks aren't that great, he's still gonna throw

947
00:44:54,080 --> 00:44:57,239
Speaker 2: touchdowns because they're not really a running team. He's got

948
00:44:57,280 --> 00:45:00,719
Speaker 2: all those red zone weapons. Gronkowski and Tonio Brown are

949
00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:02,359
Speaker 2: gonna be back. We haven't even had them for most

950
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:04,520
Speaker 2: of the first half of the season. You know, they're

951
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:08,400
Speaker 2: getting Scotty Miller, I think back and Tyler Johnson, Mike Evans,

952
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:12,120
Speaker 2: Chris Godwin. There's just so many weapons, and the Bucks

953
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:14,799
Speaker 2: schedule is so easy. They're playing in Florida, so they're

954
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:16,840
Speaker 2: not going to get a lot of those weather games.

955
00:45:17,160 --> 00:45:20,400
Speaker 2: Your point is good, He's ancient and it can't go

956
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:24,600
Speaker 2: for forever. But like Lebron, I'm done betting against when

957
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:28,000
Speaker 2: it's gonna happen. Like we talk about catching the falling knife,

958
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:30,480
Speaker 2: like Brady's knife's been falling for a decade and I'm

959
00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:32,840
Speaker 2: done trying to catch it. I'm just gonna ride the wave.

960
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:35,239
Speaker 2: I've been in on Tom Brady MVP all year. I'm

961
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:37,120
Speaker 2: in an Offensive Player of the Year. A lot of

962
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:39,880
Speaker 2: these quarterbacks when they get those monster touchdown seasons, they

963
00:45:39,920 --> 00:45:42,480
Speaker 2: win both awards. So I'm going for both. We get

964
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:43,239
Speaker 2: a big pay to here.

965
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:47,320
Speaker 1: I'm not mad at death. So that concludes our NFL

966
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:51,640
Speaker 1: midseason Futures check it. You guys definitely want to check

967
00:45:51,640 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 1: out The Sixth Pack on Thursday with Stucky and Christopher Rayvin.

968
00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 1: You also want to check out The Strong Side Friday's

969
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:02,960
Speaker 1: podcast with Brandon Anderson and myself, Right Hain Palmer. We're

970
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 1: always giving you a breakdown on the upcoming week's lines.

971
00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 1: We're also giving you the look aheadline. We've been beating

972
00:46:11,160 --> 00:46:14,160
Speaker 1: the closing line week after week. Also, you want to

973
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:17,080
Speaker 1: make sure you check out the Buckets podcast with Matt Moore,

974
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson, and myself that concludes NFL midseason check in,

975
00:46:23,280 --> 00:46:26,760
Speaker 1: Right Hein Palmer, Brandon Anderson, y'all know how it's going down. Actually,

976
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:27,800
Speaker 1: Network how