WEBVTT - Surveillance: Far From Denuclearization, Collins Says 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:13.040 Ye. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:17.560 Jay Leye. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.520 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:32.800 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg So One. 0:00:32.800 --> 0:00:35.360 Are the top stories overnight. Let's begin that the President 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:37.800 walking out of his second summit with Kim john n 0:00:38.159 --> 0:00:40.320 after the two leaders could not agree on a deal 0:00:40.360 --> 0:00:43.520 to relieve North Korea of U S sanctions in exchange 0:00:43.520 --> 0:00:46.440 for giving up much of its nuclear weapons program. Here's 0:00:46.440 --> 0:00:49.519 the President of the United States. We had some options, 0:00:49.520 --> 0:00:51.479 and at this time we decided not to do any 0:00:51.520 --> 0:00:54.120 of the options. And we'll see where that goes. But 0:00:54.240 --> 0:00:57.240 it was it was a very interesting two days, and 0:00:57.280 --> 0:00:59.680 I think actually it was a very productive two days. 0:00:59.680 --> 0:01:03.200 But sometimes you have to walk, and this was just 0:01:03.280 --> 0:01:06.040 one of those times. Sometimes you have to walk, and 0:01:06.120 --> 0:01:08.040 this was just one of those times. Joining us now 0:01:08.080 --> 0:01:12.680 from Hanno with Vietnam. It's bloom Bug's chief Washington correspondent, Kevin, Sir, Really, Kevin, 0:01:12.760 --> 0:01:16.000 if it was productive, what exactly did we achieve? Well, 0:01:16.040 --> 0:01:18.480 I'm not sure that it was productive, and in fact, 0:01:18.560 --> 0:01:20.680 even the President himself at the press conference a couple 0:01:20.720 --> 0:01:24.480 of hours ago, said that he was disappointed that that 0:01:24.720 --> 0:01:28.560 these talks, which had been really trending rhetorically speaking, quite 0:01:28.560 --> 0:01:31.440 positively in the twenty four hours leading into this, but 0:01:31.560 --> 0:01:34.240 ultimately the day was cut short two hours worth. They 0:01:34.240 --> 0:01:36.880 were supposed to have, like a joint signing agreement. There 0:01:36.920 --> 0:01:39.039 was speculation there was going to be a formal ending 0:01:39.040 --> 0:01:42.360 of the Korean War following the ceasefire of nine three. 0:01:42.400 --> 0:01:46.080 But Jonathan, this was not the deal at all or 0:01:46.120 --> 0:01:48.960 the day rather that President Trump was hoping to have. 0:01:49.560 --> 0:01:51.880 And currently as we speak, he's flying aboard Air Force 0:01:51.920 --> 0:01:54.360 one back state side. And we all know the storyline 0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:57.480 there with Michael, So Kevin, let's talk about how typically 0:01:57.560 --> 0:02:00.840 these things play out. Typically, the outcome of summits like 0:02:00.920 --> 0:02:03.720 this a predetermined before the president even boards Air Force 0:02:03.800 --> 0:02:06.360 one at leaves the White House. This is a very 0:02:06.360 --> 0:02:10.720 different approach negotiations with foreign leaders, isn't it? It absolutely is. 0:02:10.760 --> 0:02:13.160 And and and even just in texting and emailing with 0:02:13.520 --> 0:02:17.519 analyst backstate side since the press conference, I mean, Jonathan, 0:02:18.040 --> 0:02:21.520 there's an ability, there's there's the level of unpredictability. That 0:02:21.560 --> 0:02:24.520 I remember President Trump, then Candidate Trump would talk about 0:02:24.520 --> 0:02:26.919 on the campaign trail, but he wanted to be unpredictable, 0:02:26.960 --> 0:02:29.960 and we've seen that play out virtually in real time 0:02:30.080 --> 0:02:34.280 here in Hanoi. But but these analysts are criticizing that 0:02:34.400 --> 0:02:39.200 same approach because now there's no step forward in terms 0:02:39.280 --> 0:02:42.360 of the nuclearization, in terms of defining the nuclearization, or 0:02:42.360 --> 0:02:45.040 in terms of bringing the Russians and the Chinese to 0:02:45.160 --> 0:02:48.160 the table to get folks to the nuclearize. Kevin, since 0:02:48.200 --> 0:02:49.799 I last spoke to you an hour and a half ago, 0:02:49.840 --> 0:02:52.280 I'm sure you've taken tea at the Metropole Hotel in 0:02:52.320 --> 0:02:57.320 Hanoi before you wander back to America. Vietnamese coffee, Vietnamese coffee. 0:02:57.320 --> 0:02:59.160 But you know there's a spin to this and all 0:02:59.240 --> 0:03:03.520 that everybody he's adapting and adjusting. The fact is, it 0:03:03.720 --> 0:03:07.679 is stunning the difference in two tweets from the one 0:03:07.720 --> 0:03:11.480 this morning by the President finessing the moment versus what 0:03:11.560 --> 0:03:15.320 I saw nineteen hours ago, maybe twenty hours ago, of 0:03:15.360 --> 0:03:19.320 a happy, happy, shaking hands pat on the shaking hands thing. 0:03:19.880 --> 0:03:23.840 I mean, those images are stark. How will the president 0:03:24.480 --> 0:03:28.400 massage that message when he lands at Andrew's Air Force Base. 0:03:28.720 --> 0:03:30.720 You know, it's it, that's that's the task ahead. I mean, 0:03:30.720 --> 0:03:33.519 there's this plant in North Korea, this nuclear plant called 0:03:33.600 --> 0:03:37.120 Young Young Young, which is a nuclear plant that that 0:03:37.160 --> 0:03:39.760 has really gotten a lot of attention for a nuclear 0:03:39.800 --> 0:03:42.840 development site. But the President in his press conference Tom 0:03:42.920 --> 0:03:48.200 also said that they displayed evidence of intelligence that there 0:03:48.200 --> 0:03:51.280 were other nuclearar sites in North Korea, and that caught 0:03:51.280 --> 0:03:54.600 the North Korean's, according to President Trump and Secretary Pompeo, 0:03:54.720 --> 0:03:59.400 a bit off guard. And so now, uh, the thirty 0:03:59.440 --> 0:04:02.360 five year old dictator from North Korea, he's gonna stick 0:04:02.360 --> 0:04:04.800 around here in Hanoi for he's supposed to at least 0:04:04.840 --> 0:04:08.760 for another twenty four hours or so. Uh and presumably 0:04:08.840 --> 0:04:10.880 is going to be meeting with the Chinese president. She 0:04:11.040 --> 0:04:14.320 has already dispatched his foreign minister to meet with the 0:04:14.360 --> 0:04:19.320 North Koreans. Mind you, the Chinese presence here in Hannoy 0:04:19.760 --> 0:04:22.680 was you felt it? Uh? And And and to Jonathan's 0:04:22.680 --> 0:04:25.800 earlier point, the summit that I covered in Singapore had 0:04:25.800 --> 0:04:30.880 a much different feel. I mean, what was difference between 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:35.480 Singapore and Hannoi besides a hotel food? You know, I'll 0:04:35.520 --> 0:04:37.680 put it simple. I mean to use your lingo. They 0:04:37.680 --> 0:04:40.320 didn't rip up the script in Singapore, they stuck to 0:04:40.520 --> 0:04:43.719 the script. Here in Hanoi, they ripped up the script 0:04:43.720 --> 0:04:46.360 there was There wasn't even a script to rip up from. 0:04:46.400 --> 0:04:49.960 From the moment that Uh Kim Kim Jong un took 0:04:50.000 --> 0:04:53.719 that stepped off that sixty hour Chinese arranged train ride 0:04:54.360 --> 0:04:58.839 uh and arrived at the hotel and kicked out the 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:01.760 White House press pool. You could tell this was a 0:05:01.839 --> 0:05:04.760 much different feel. Kevin, thank you so much, Kevin SURREALI 0:05:04.839 --> 0:05:08.240 he will be in Hannoy for his important effort tonight 0:05:08.360 --> 0:05:13.800 five pm nationwide soundown with Kevin Surreally driving before now. Yeah, well, 0:05:13.839 --> 0:05:15.680 you know it's Thursday and we're cutting near to the 0:05:15.720 --> 0:05:18.599 real you'd a tough way. I don't have anything to plug. 0:05:18.720 --> 0:05:20.840 But anyways, let's just really in Hannoy and he will 0:05:20.880 --> 0:05:24.280 give you unique perspective that you will see off the 0:05:24.279 --> 0:05:40.840 Washington studio. But nationwide, we've got a lot to talk 0:05:40.880 --> 0:05:43.440 about today. Let's bring in Chris Grassanti Show with Grossanti 0:05:43.480 --> 0:05:47.480 Capital Management CEO. There are some positives to the unpredictable 0:05:47.560 --> 0:05:49.360 nature of the President of the United States. You can 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:51.039 get the Chinese to the table in a way that 0:05:51.080 --> 0:05:53.280 other people haven't been able to. Chris, there is the 0:05:53.480 --> 0:05:57.720 downside as well, as we mentioned previously. Typically these are 0:05:57.760 --> 0:06:02.159 predetermined summits. Before you get the outcome has already been decided. 0:06:02.720 --> 0:06:05.279 This is some of the downside from other night, isn't it. Yeah? 0:06:05.400 --> 0:06:08.240 Thanks so, Jonathan forgive me for being a little bit cynical. 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:10.920 But as far as the President's concerned, we're sitting here 0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:14.960 talking about North Korea instead of talking about Cohen, right, 0:06:15.120 --> 0:06:17.800 so his little bit of drama at the summit is 0:06:17.839 --> 0:06:23.039 probably not so counterproductive as as we might think. Um, 0:06:23.120 --> 0:06:25.840 what I would say is China, as we we looked 0:06:25.839 --> 0:06:28.360 at the China trade dada this morning, when I talke 0:06:28.440 --> 0:06:31.559 about it's just a disaster, I mean it's really ugly. 0:06:31.880 --> 0:06:35.240 So but that that perversely maybe kind of good news 0:06:35.279 --> 0:06:38.240 because what that says is the Chinese need a trade deal. 0:06:38.279 --> 0:06:40.400 They needed badly. So for anyone that missed the data 0:06:40.480 --> 0:06:42.960 from overnight Chinese manufacturing, the p M I coming at 0:06:42.960 --> 0:06:46.159 a forty nine point too. I was going to wait 0:06:46.240 --> 0:06:48.560 this letter and we'll revamp this at five things you 0:06:48.640 --> 0:06:50.919 need to know, And thank you Interact of Brokers for 0:06:50.960 --> 0:06:57.760 that support. Chris John Ferrell absolutely nailed the slope, the 0:06:57.880 --> 0:07:01.320 gradient of this p m I X words out of China. 0:07:02.080 --> 0:07:04.400 I mean, it was extraordinary. What you did? What you 0:07:04.400 --> 0:07:11.040 what do you? No? Can I just say there is 0:07:11.040 --> 0:07:13.520 a silver lining in this very ugly p m The 0:07:13.680 --> 0:07:16.320 slope is a generous ur It's like a black diamonds. 0:07:16.360 --> 0:07:18.200 There is there is a there is a silver lining 0:07:18.360 --> 0:07:20.600 in this p m I. From overnight in China, the 0:07:20.640 --> 0:07:24.560 business activity expectation component was actually really positive for both 0:07:24.600 --> 0:07:27.320 the manufacturing p m I the non manufacturing p m I. 0:07:27.760 --> 0:07:30.040 The other piece of good news I have to say 0:07:30.240 --> 0:07:33.440 is that the input prices for this p m I 0:07:33.480 --> 0:07:36.400 as well is in positive territory. There was a concern 0:07:36.480 --> 0:07:39.960 that we'd have that twenty sixteen replay of exporting disinflation. 0:07:40.320 --> 0:07:41.920 But I've really got to look for this, Chris, You've 0:07:41.960 --> 0:07:45.280 really got to look hard to find some positivity. So 0:07:45.280 --> 0:07:47.240 so my real question for the rest of this year, 0:07:47.240 --> 0:07:50.360 and I think this is where it starts. February you 0:07:50.480 --> 0:07:53.040 had a big Chinese holiday. It's really really difficult to 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:55.440 get a clear read on the Chinese economy. We go 0:07:55.480 --> 0:07:58.000 into March, we're gonna get some clean data, probably from China, 0:07:58.040 --> 0:08:00.880 from the United States as well, and big question for 0:08:00.920 --> 0:08:02.280 this year, and I think it holds the key to 0:08:02.360 --> 0:08:07.920 asset classes for can stimulus out of China bite? When 0:08:07.920 --> 0:08:10.160 does it bite? And how much support does it offer 0:08:10.200 --> 0:08:12.320 this economy because I'm not saying much of it right now, 0:08:12.520 --> 0:08:14.560 and I think you need a two barrel approach. You 0:08:14.600 --> 0:08:16.840 need the stimulus that has to work, and you need 0:08:16.880 --> 0:08:19.720 a trade resolution, at least a temporary one to get 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:22.400 us through the summer. Until that is the value Man 0:08:22.440 --> 0:08:27.520 optimistic about financial markets because we have ripped through so far. Absolutely, 0:08:27.760 --> 0:08:29.800 I mean we have to be a lot more selective now. 0:08:29.840 --> 0:08:32.360 There were some terrific bargains the last week of the year, 0:08:32.400 --> 0:08:34.880 but you know we're up almost fifteen per cent since then. 0:08:35.160 --> 0:08:37.440 One place that does still seem to have value our 0:08:37.600 --> 0:08:41.920 financial stocks. They haven't risen because rates have been benign. 0:08:42.200 --> 0:08:45.080 If rates, as we think, will start to ease higher again, 0:08:45.320 --> 0:08:47.440 you could get us some bids in the banks. I 0:08:47.480 --> 0:08:49.680 mean in Europe, I mean one of the other changes 0:08:49.760 --> 0:08:52.160 John quickly here that we've seen as German tenure yield 0:08:52.240 --> 0:08:54.679 is finally lifted up, I mean a little bit off 0:08:54.720 --> 0:08:56.920 the mat in the last three days. Are you in 0:08:56.960 --> 0:09:00.640 Europe at all no, you know we we the opportunities 0:09:00.640 --> 0:09:06.000 in the United States is higher growth and less risk. Okay, Christmas, Chris, 0:09:06.280 --> 0:09:26.319 thank you so much. Morning, just extraordinary morning. This is 0:09:26.360 --> 0:09:28.400 a joy. This is what we like to do best. 0:09:28.400 --> 0:09:30.480 On surveillance. It may be on the markets. That may 0:09:30.480 --> 0:09:33.360 be on foreign exchange or bonds. It may be some 0:09:33.480 --> 0:09:39.880 fancy economists to define a definitive voice. Lisa Collins is extraordinary. 0:09:39.960 --> 0:09:43.200 She's out of Oberlin and is pieced together in a 0:09:43.400 --> 0:09:49.080 shockingly short amount of time definitive knowledge on their hermit kingdom. 0:09:49.160 --> 0:09:50.960 You know the photo. I think I saw it in 0:09:50.960 --> 0:09:54.320 the Boston Globe a million years ago of Asia lit 0:09:54.400 --> 0:09:57.240 up this photo from the satellites, and there was North 0:09:57.320 --> 0:10:01.800 to create Korea dark and black. She owns with Victor 0:10:01.960 --> 0:10:07.240 Cha the granularity of the economy and the political system 0:10:07.360 --> 0:10:11.160 of North Korea. And we welcome Lisa Collins with the 0:10:11.240 --> 0:10:14.960 Center for Strategic and International Studies. Lisa, if you could 0:10:15.000 --> 0:10:19.280 say to our audience the one thing about the stereotype 0:10:20.280 --> 0:10:26.160 of medieval North Korea, what do we most get wrong? Well, 0:10:26.200 --> 0:10:30.120 I think we get wrong that there are people inside 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:33.720 the country who are trying to live their lives the 0:10:33.760 --> 0:10:36.120 best that they can there. You know, they are trying 0:10:36.160 --> 0:10:39.840 to UM use their own agency to create better lives 0:10:39.960 --> 0:10:42.400 and to create these markets that you've just talked about. 0:10:42.800 --> 0:10:45.640 UM And despite the repression that's happening inside the country, 0:10:45.640 --> 0:10:48.360 which Kim Jongan has tried very hard to keep the 0:10:48.400 --> 0:10:51.120 people from doing, UM is creating these markets. That is, 0:10:51.120 --> 0:10:53.480 they're living on their own terms and they're trying to 0:10:53.480 --> 0:10:55.679 survive the best that they can do. They want to 0:10:55.720 --> 0:10:59.280 go across the d m Z or go north across 0:10:59.440 --> 0:11:03.080 the river Peter Hessler and Oracle Bones riding that river 0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:06.080 years ago. Do they want to go north or south 0:11:06.200 --> 0:11:09.560 and escape? Some of them do. Some of them have 0:11:09.600 --> 0:11:12.920 tried multiple times to leave the country. They've either been 0:11:13.000 --> 0:11:15.920 captured and returned to the country and are being held 0:11:15.920 --> 0:11:19.720 in prison camps or in jail. UM and others are 0:11:19.800 --> 0:11:22.080 quite content to stay inside their country and try to 0:11:22.120 --> 0:11:25.839 profit from the markets, try to make again UM living 0:11:25.880 --> 0:11:29.120 for themselves and for their families outside of the reach 0:11:29.160 --> 0:11:33.600 of the government. Interpret forest. The outrage over, you know, 0:11:33.640 --> 0:11:37.320 the language is intense about the human rights violation of 0:11:37.400 --> 0:11:40.480 Chairman Kim and the rest of it all. Is it 0:11:40.679 --> 0:11:44.400 legitimate of the human rights people done their homework and 0:11:44.440 --> 0:11:49.040 they are looking at outrageous conditions. Certainly. I mean, this 0:11:49.080 --> 0:11:52.280 has been going on for sixty seventy years. It wasn't 0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:54.880 just something that happened under Kim jonga, and it's been 0:11:54.920 --> 0:11:58.720 happening under his grandfather and his father. Um, they built 0:11:58.720 --> 0:12:01.839 these prison camps, He's pulled prison camps when the nation 0:12:01.960 --> 0:12:05.079 was first founded. They are very much like the Russian 0:12:05.080 --> 0:12:07.760 gulags or the Soviet Union gulags, and some in some 0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:12.320 cases are probably worse. Um. There was a Special Commission 0:12:12.360 --> 0:12:15.000 of Inquiry that was formed by the United Nations in 0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:17.880 two thousand fourteen which did an extensive study on all 0:12:17.880 --> 0:12:20.080 of North Korea's human rights violations, came out with a 0:12:20.080 --> 0:12:22.439 great report at the end of two thousands, at the 0:12:22.480 --> 0:12:25.240 beginning of two thousand fourteen, and it basically lists all 0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:27.480 of these horrendous things that have been happening. If you're 0:12:27.520 --> 0:12:29.760 just joining us today, without question, my interview of the 0:12:29.840 --> 0:12:33.320 day on North Korea, Lisa Collins with this a fellow 0:12:33.400 --> 0:12:37.040 Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 0:12:37.040 --> 0:12:40.440 I put out on Twitter her website at c s 0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:44.480 i S and it's just absolutely definitive. Okay, the president 0:12:44.760 --> 0:12:48.880 with his work today, Lisa. The president yesterday with handshakes 0:12:49.160 --> 0:12:52.960 and that famous hand pad that he has with Chairman Kim, 0:12:53.000 --> 0:12:56.720 and the constant theme through it is the President believes 0:12:56.760 --> 0:13:02.000 there can be a tremendous capitalistic oppertu tunity in North Korea. 0:13:02.280 --> 0:13:04.760 Do you agree with the president or how would you 0:13:04.840 --> 0:13:09.640 modify his tone? Well, I think that there certainly is 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:12.880 opportunity in the long term in North Korea. As has 0:13:12.880 --> 0:13:15.480 been mentioned by many analysts, not just President Trump, but 0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:19.320 North Korea sits at a very opportune location in the 0:13:19.320 --> 0:13:22.040 middle of Northeast Asia, surrounded by some of the greatest 0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:25.720 largest economies in all of Asia even the world. So 0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:27.880 if the country were to open up and were to 0:13:28.440 --> 0:13:32.120 um create a market economy, a regularized market economy, I mean, 0:13:32.160 --> 0:13:35.600 there could be tremendous opportunities, but that is only if 0:13:35.640 --> 0:13:38.880 there is radical political change to cut to the chase, 0:13:38.880 --> 0:13:41.319 and I did a per capita analysis of the communist 0:13:41.360 --> 0:13:45.480 countries of Asia. Can they become a Laos? I mean 0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:49.480 not can they become a Vietnam? But landlocked Laos is 0:13:49.960 --> 0:13:54.120 really struggling. Their goal is a medieval hermit kingdom, is 0:13:54.160 --> 0:13:57.199 to get to Laos. There's Lisa Collins think they can 0:13:57.240 --> 0:14:03.040 get laos forgetting about Vietnam, not not under the current regime. UM, 0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:04.959 and Kim Jong Uan himself would have to make a 0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:09.360 radical change in his strategy of control over the people 0:14:09.720 --> 0:14:12.920 and the markets and the country itself. UM. Under a 0:14:12.920 --> 0:14:15.600 different leader, this may be possible, and over a very 0:14:15.640 --> 0:14:19.160 long period of time, it could potentially be possible, but 0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:21.920 it it might take decades. UM and the South Koreans 0:14:21.920 --> 0:14:23.560 would probably have to help in that. They would have 0:14:23.600 --> 0:14:25.840 to invest a lot. The Chinese would probably want to 0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:28.960 invest more than they already do. UM and the other 0:14:29.000 --> 0:14:31.480 countries in the region, of course, would be involved in 0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:34.560 development as well, Lisa, have we determined that that is 0:14:34.600 --> 0:14:39.160 actually their goal. We we do know that Kim jongan 0:14:39.320 --> 0:14:42.520 is very anxious to develop his country, but on his terms, 0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:45.280 and he's very clearly stated that in all of his 0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:50.000 speeches and and his public statements UM going back for years. 0:14:50.440 --> 0:14:52.720 I think we don't know. What we don't know is 0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:55.880 whether he is willing to open up in the terms 0:14:55.880 --> 0:14:57.480 that the United States and the rest of the Western 0:14:57.560 --> 0:14:59.720 world will like to see North Korea do, and that 0:14:59.880 --> 0:15:02.560 is to follow the model of Vietnam, or even that 0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:06.320 of China where there's slow reform, economic reform, and some 0:15:06.360 --> 0:15:10.960 political opening. Um. Of course, we you know, as Americans, 0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:14.760 we would like to see the entire Korean peninsula become free, democratic, 0:15:14.960 --> 0:15:19.960 and market society. That is the ultimate goal eventually, but um, 0:15:20.120 --> 0:15:22.680 how that happens and whether it can happen under the 0:15:22.680 --> 0:15:26.080 current Crean leadership is is definitely a difficult question. At least, 0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:29.520 it's what degree does an existential threat validate the regime? 0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:35.840 It's a great help to validate their um the rationale 0:15:35.840 --> 0:15:38.480 for keeping control of their people. That's the ultimate reason. 0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:41.080 Which that's the question leads as to why the leader 0:15:41.080 --> 0:15:42.800 of North Korea would actually look for any kind of 0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:47.680 peace deal. Well, so, I think the reason might be 0:15:48.120 --> 0:15:50.840 that if he really is, Kim Jong un is really 0:15:50.840 --> 0:15:53.440 serious about opening up the country, but he's not exactly 0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:56.280 sure how to do it and in what um, you know, 0:15:56.320 --> 0:15:58.120 what steps he needs to take to do that. First, 0:15:58.160 --> 0:16:01.480 he has to change the propaganda within the country. He 0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:04.240 has to change the mindsets of the people, um, who 0:16:04.360 --> 0:16:07.600 have been basically brainwashed over decades. So he has to 0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:10.080 convince them that there's no longer a threat from the 0:16:10.160 --> 0:16:14.160 United States. And then he could probably UM engage in 0:16:14.240 --> 0:16:17.880 some opening diplomatic openings, people to people, more people to 0:16:17.960 --> 0:16:21.480 people exchanges, maybe again the market openings. But you know, 0:16:21.600 --> 0:16:25.280 changing the internal dynamics propaganda of the country is will 0:16:25.320 --> 0:16:28.160 be very difficult. Um. Changing the minds of the elites 0:16:28.240 --> 0:16:33.000 could be very difficult. And then also convincing UM others 0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:35.480 that he the threat from the United States is gone 0:16:35.600 --> 0:16:39.120 is something that he probably faces a large challenge on. So, Lisa, 0:16:39.160 --> 0:16:40.920 from what I'm hearing from you and from the research 0:16:40.960 --> 0:16:42.600 that's been put in front of me from this morning 0:16:42.680 --> 0:16:44.680 from from your team, is that we are a long 0:16:44.800 --> 0:16:48.320 long way away from any kind of final, fully verifiable 0:16:48.360 --> 0:16:53.000 denuclearization deal. Yes, I think there are experts who estimate 0:16:53.040 --> 0:16:55.760 that it could take from ten to fifteen years to 0:16:56.440 --> 0:17:00.360 completely denucarized North Korea all of its sites, even if 0:17:00.360 --> 0:17:04.000 they're being helpful UM and engaged in the process of 0:17:04.040 --> 0:17:06.840 dismantlement of vernicular weapons program. Of course, if they throw 0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:10.920 up roadblocks, walk out of talks, UM, you know, decide 0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:14.160 not to participate in in this process, then it could 0:17:14.160 --> 0:17:18.000 take much longer, if at all. UM. Yeah, so it's 0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:21.359 a very difficult situation. You imagine John and Ivy had 0:17:21.400 --> 0:17:24.200 the privilege of speaking to all sorts of Asia. Heavy 0:17:24.240 --> 0:17:27.879 wis just as one the giant Jonathan Spence of Yale University, 0:17:28.720 --> 0:17:34.360 Lisa Collins, what's it like working with Victor's Chaw? I mean, 0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:36.600 what what is it like working with the dean of 0:17:36.640 --> 0:17:40.960 all of Korea? I mean Dr Chaw's extraordinary right, Yes, 0:17:41.040 --> 0:17:46.480 he is an extraordinary analyst. He is very very well 0:17:46.680 --> 0:17:49.800 versed in Korean affairs. So what gets him upset? What's 0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:53.359 getting you? You and him are sitting around, uh, you know, 0:17:53.520 --> 0:17:56.879 talking up a Korea. What is the topic that the 0:17:56.920 --> 0:18:00.199 two of you get most upset about with in the 0:18:00.240 --> 0:18:04.600 mainstream media on North Korea? Well, I think what is 0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:07.520 upsetting to some degree as the lack of focus on 0:18:07.600 --> 0:18:11.600 human rights. And that's something that he does get him 0:18:11.720 --> 0:18:14.320 UM somewhat disturbed from time to time, and I think 0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:16.399 he tried to write about it in the run up 0:18:16.440 --> 0:18:19.280 to this summit. Is the lack of focus, the lack 0:18:19.359 --> 0:18:21.359 of attention that was being paid to human rights. And 0:18:21.400 --> 0:18:24.120 I think that's something that we hope that will continue 0:18:24.160 --> 0:18:28.040 to get attention um, despite what's going on on the 0:18:28.119 --> 0:18:31.800 demaimalization front or the negotiations. So we should not forget 0:18:31.880 --> 0:18:34.240 that North Korea is still a prison state. It's a 0:18:34.320 --> 0:18:38.000 state that U has to survive by repressing its own people, 0:18:38.040 --> 0:18:41.439 and that there should be movement and openness discussion with 0:18:41.480 --> 0:18:44.240 North Korea about making progress on those fronts at the 0:18:44.280 --> 0:18:46.840 same time that we're also trying to dismantle their nicular 0:18:46.840 --> 0:18:50.000 weapons programs. This is another one hour conversation and we'll 0:18:50.000 --> 0:18:52.280 do that with Lisa Collins that maybe with Dr Shaw 0:18:52.320 --> 0:18:56.359 as we can as well. Just extraordinary and somehow John, 0:18:56.400 --> 0:18:59.880 I think we'll continue with discussion on the Greater Korean 0:19:00.280 --> 0:19:03.119 UH Peninsula was c SIS, a Center for Strategic and 0:19:03.200 --> 0:19:19.520 International Studies. Were thrilled to bringing Lisa Collins. Not enough 0:19:19.520 --> 0:19:22.520 time right now with someone who's joined us before. Catherine 0:19:22.560 --> 0:19:26.520 Moon is at Brookings, but that barely describes her iconic 0:19:26.560 --> 0:19:30.800 position at a small school outside Boston known as Wellesley College. 0:19:30.880 --> 0:19:35.120 To bring up the speed folks. Wellesley College literally pioneered 0:19:35.240 --> 0:19:38.919 Asian studies a zillion years ago. Professor Moon thrilled to 0:19:38.960 --> 0:19:42.320 have you with us UH today if you were if 0:19:42.359 --> 0:19:46.080 you were lecturing freshman at Wellsley. They're so eager to 0:19:46.119 --> 0:19:50.520 get in front of the Asian studies program at Wellesley. 0:19:50.560 --> 0:19:53.880 What's the first thing you would show that that pushes 0:19:53.920 --> 0:20:01.080 against our common myths on Korea, commons against UH commentments 0:20:01.160 --> 0:20:04.560 on North Korea that we need to to unveil. I 0:20:04.560 --> 0:20:07.480 would say the first thing is it's a real country 0:20:07.560 --> 0:20:12.320 that plays hardball diplomatic strategies and has a domestic audience 0:20:12.359 --> 0:20:14.719 that it needs to pay attention to. Even though it's 0:20:14.760 --> 0:20:18.639 a dictatorship. Kim jongan does not run it alone and 0:20:18.680 --> 0:20:22.200 he needs to have the backing of especially the military 0:20:22.320 --> 0:20:25.439 and some members of the population help us with the 0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:29.640 president's constant theme as the summit fell apart in two 0:20:29.720 --> 0:20:33.480 days ago when there was happy handshakes, and the constant 0:20:33.520 --> 0:20:36.600 theme is his belief that North Korea can be a 0:20:36.640 --> 0:20:41.840 force of capitalism going forward. Can it do the Asian 0:20:41.920 --> 0:20:45.960 tiger thing? Can it be like Laos or Cambodia and 0:20:46.080 --> 0:20:48.840 move forward or is there a different equation that you 0:20:48.880 --> 0:20:53.480 see I think I think Donald Trump is doing the 0:20:53.560 --> 0:20:56.359 right rhetoric to try to raise the expectations of the 0:20:56.400 --> 0:20:59.840 North Korean people and its leadership to step up. And 0:21:00.040 --> 0:21:03.480 it is aligned with Kim Jong UN's own desire to 0:21:03.560 --> 0:21:07.720 develop his economy. That is sincere Um, many observers believe 0:21:07.800 --> 0:21:11.480 that but in terms of how the question is, are 0:21:11.560 --> 0:21:15.760 they capable of growing economically into another dragon or tiger? 0:21:16.119 --> 0:21:21.280 How fast and how fast and how stable is the question? 0:21:21.400 --> 0:21:23.080 And I think those are the two areas where I 0:21:23.080 --> 0:21:25.840 would take issue with Mr Trump. UM. One thing I 0:21:25.880 --> 0:21:27.960 want to mention is that you know, even though the 0:21:28.000 --> 0:21:31.520 news headlines say that this is a failed summit because 0:21:31.520 --> 0:21:35.680 Trump walked away with nothing and basically the negotiations broke down, 0:21:36.040 --> 0:21:38.639 I look at it a little differently. I think actually 0:21:38.680 --> 0:21:41.119 this was a good summit in the sense that it 0:21:41.200 --> 0:21:45.440 was constructive. We finally got to see that that Mr 0:21:45.480 --> 0:21:48.320 Kim Jong un can play real hardball and they have 0:21:48.480 --> 0:21:52.800 real clear um bars about what it takes to the 0:21:52.920 --> 0:21:56.160 US to absolutely work with North Korea towards the nuclearization, 0:21:56.240 --> 0:22:00.040 which is full listing of the sanctions UM. And I 0:22:00.080 --> 0:22:03.200 think that it's very good for Mr Trump to realize 0:22:03.200 --> 0:22:06.800 that his own personal charm offensive has its limits and 0:22:06.840 --> 0:22:08.920 that now you need to leave it to the people 0:22:08.920 --> 0:22:12.080 who are experts to really thrash this out, and it'll 0:22:12.080 --> 0:22:15.280 take a lot of time. So, Professor Moon, who do 0:22:15.320 --> 0:22:21.240 you think needs a deal more the US or North Korea? Here? Well, 0:22:21.600 --> 0:22:25.000 the US needs a deal and the question is is 0:22:25.000 --> 0:22:29.760 it Mr Trump needing a deal he wanted mostly uh, 0:22:29.920 --> 0:22:32.680 progress toward a Nobel prize for himself. That is not 0:22:32.840 --> 0:22:37.000 something that was hidden. UM. But also I think for 0:22:37.040 --> 0:22:42.320 the US government, if we are serious about UM preventing 0:22:42.760 --> 0:22:46.920 nuclear escalation, military escalation in East Asia and trying to 0:22:46.920 --> 0:22:50.480 bring some level of cooperation in peace on the peninsula 0:22:50.520 --> 0:22:54.040 after seventy plus years. Yes, it's very, very important, and 0:22:54.080 --> 0:22:57.200 it is considered North Korea is considered a major nuclear, 0:22:57.560 --> 0:23:02.000 major security threat to the United States. UM. But North 0:23:02.080 --> 0:23:08.200 Korea needs the US give because Kim has to have 0:23:08.359 --> 0:23:13.840 economic development in order to survive, and so both sides 0:23:14.040 --> 0:23:17.560 have a pretty loaded game here. Okay, I have to 0:23:17.640 --> 0:23:19.119 leave it there. We're just too short a time. We 0:23:19.160 --> 0:23:22.040 need to get you back on soon as we can. 0:23:22.200 --> 0:23:25.359 Catherine Moon, she is at Wellesley College and the Brookings 0:23:25.440 --> 0:23:43.920 Institute there on the Many Koreas is open. Faulse twoone 0:23:44.000 --> 0:23:46.760 and Tom Keane And we really look towards the longer 0:23:46.880 --> 0:23:49.200