WEBVTT - FIL CEO Frank Luntz Talks Lessons Learned from Polling

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Frank Luntz, famed polster and founder of fil Inc, is

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<v Speaker 2>joining us now. Frank, thanks for being back with us

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<v Speaker 2>on Bloomberg TV and radio. We have been talking about

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<v Speaker 2>this entire cycle how tight margins were likely to be.

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<v Speaker 2>Turns out they're not quite as tight in most of

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<v Speaker 2>these battleground states as they were in twenty twenty. And

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<v Speaker 2>I just wonder your takeaway here when it comes to

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<v Speaker 2>whether or not the polls were adequately reflecting the reality

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<v Speaker 2>in America once again. Doesn't it seem like Poles underestimated

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump to a small degree.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, and that is about turnout that every Trump supporter

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<v Speaker 1>became a Trump voter. That is not the case with

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<v Speaker 1>Kamala Harris, and that's one of the reasons why she

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<v Speaker 1>fell short. Certainly, the idea that Trump would get a

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<v Speaker 1>majority of the popular vote is a surprise to a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of people right now. And is the the Iowa

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<v Speaker 1>poll which I want to draw attention to because that

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<v Speaker 1>changed the actual narrative of the campaign.

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<v Speaker 3>For the last forty eight hours.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump ended up winning Iowa by about a dozen points

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<v Speaker 1>or so.

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<v Speaker 3>That the poll had Harris up by three.

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<v Speaker 1>It was not only beyond the margin of err, it

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<v Speaker 1>actually changed how the race was being covered, which is

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<v Speaker 1>really one of the rare times when survey research actually

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<v Speaker 1>becomes part of the narrative. I think that there's a

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<v Speaker 1>lesson for Americans in the future which has spent a

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<v Speaker 1>lot less time talking about who's winning and losing, and

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<v Speaker 1>a lot more time talking about what the candidates say

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<v Speaker 1>they're going to do and why either we should believe

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<v Speaker 1>them or distrust them.

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<v Speaker 4>Sounds like people were wrong about a lot, frank They

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<v Speaker 4>were wrong about the protesters showing up at the DNC,

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<v Speaker 4>they were wrong about violence around polls, wrong about pole watchers,

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<v Speaker 4>wrong about, in some cases even though our polls were tied,

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<v Speaker 4>the idea that there was momentum behind Kamala Harris as well.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm wondering if there's a reckoning here for posters.

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<v Speaker 4>Was there an overcorrection in the sample?

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<v Speaker 3>And what's going through your mind today?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, what's going through my mind, because I've been asked

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<v Speaker 1>this in almost every show, is.

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<v Speaker 3>This is the media.

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<v Speaker 1>The posters did get it wrong, but the media went

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<v Speaker 1>all over this IOWA survey when all over trying to

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<v Speaker 1>see some trends, some movement in one direction or another,

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<v Speaker 1>and that they're the ones who drove this. I tend

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<v Speaker 1>not to talk about polling when I do shows like this,

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<v Speaker 1>I talk about policy. I talk about language, what the

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<v Speaker 1>public wants to see and hear, and whether the politicians

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<v Speaker 1>are doing it or not. And so much of this

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<v Speaker 1>is actually driven by those who ask the questions rather

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<v Speaker 1>than people like me who answer them, because we wouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>answer them if we weren't asking them. I don't want

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<v Speaker 1>to make a blanket statement because I take this so

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<v Speaker 1>seriously and I so approve of the way your show

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<v Speaker 1>handles politics the best shows in all of television or politics.

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<v Speaker 3>But I do think that there needs to be a

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<v Speaker 3>reckoning for.

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<v Speaker 1>What we choose to focus on and how we cover it,

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<v Speaker 1>because in the end it becomes misleading or even detrimental

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<v Speaker 1>to the political process, as that Iowas survey clearly was well.

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<v Speaker 2>Frank, we appreciate the kind words, and of course, there

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<v Speaker 2>always is room for critique when we consider how the

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<v Speaker 2>narrative is shaped in America, and media plays a role

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<v Speaker 2>in that as well. I think we can all agree.

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<v Speaker 2>Earlier on in this cycle, there was a few conversations

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<v Speaker 2>that happened in quick succession, one being whether or not

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<v Speaker 2>the media was putting too much focus on the age

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<v Speaker 2>issue for Joe Biden. Then became whether or not the

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<v Speaker 2>media was complicit in covering up how deep those issues

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<v Speaker 2>may have run for the current president. And I just wonder,

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<v Speaker 2>as we consider the role of Joe Biden and all

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<v Speaker 2>of this, his late withdrawal from his reelection campaign, if

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<v Speaker 2>ultimately you think that made a difference, if the timing mattered,

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<v Speaker 2>or if it was never going to be possible for

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<v Speaker 2>an incumbent administration given the kind of inflation experienced during it,

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<v Speaker 2>to keep hold of the White House, don't I don't

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<v Speaker 2>believe that.

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<v Speaker 1>I challenged the narrative which has been put forward now

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<v Speaker 1>for weeks. Vice President Harris had one of the sharpest

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<v Speaker 1>fastest rises of any candidate modern history. She went from

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<v Speaker 1>five points down when she got into the race to

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<v Speaker 1>three and a half points up in a matter of

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<v Speaker 1>a few weeks. Because she was joyful. She talked about

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<v Speaker 1>the things she wanted to do, instead of the negativity

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<v Speaker 1>which he decried again and again. She was hopeful and

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<v Speaker 1>optimistic and talked about all the things that she wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to get done. But then after the convention, she turned dark,

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<v Speaker 1>she turned negative. It sounded as much like a Trump

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<v Speaker 1>campaign as it did a Harris campaign.

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<v Speaker 3>And that was when she hit her ceiling.

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<v Speaker 1>And then she and by changing this by being joyful

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<v Speaker 1>and then being harshly negative, calling Trump a fascist, voters

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<v Speaker 1>started to wonder who is she?

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<v Speaker 3>Is she authentic? Is she genuine?

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<v Speaker 1>How do you go from being joyful to damning your opponents?

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<v Speaker 1>And then Biden, of course made the comment about Trump's voters,

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<v Speaker 1>and it just it didn't ring true.

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<v Speaker 3>That's number one and number two. She never articulated.

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<v Speaker 1>Exactly what she wanted to do in the first hour,

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<v Speaker 1>in the first day, first week, first month, first one,

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<v Speaker 1>under days and so on. If she had done that

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<v Speaker 1>in the CNN town hall where it's done live, if

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<v Speaker 1>she'd done that in the sixty minutes interview or the

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<v Speaker 1>Fox interview, any of these, if she had done that

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<v Speaker 1>until voters exactly what she wanted to do, she would

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<v Speaker 1>have done much better because then she would have been

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<v Speaker 1>about policy, and that's where she was weakest. But instead

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<v Speaker 1>she got driven around. She never answered the questions that

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<v Speaker 1>voters had and so she never crossed that threshold. Whereas

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump we knew him. There's nothing more we can

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<v Speaker 1>learn about him. We knew his weaknesses, we knew his strengths,

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<v Speaker 1>we knew his record because we saw for four years.

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<v Speaker 3>So her criticizing.

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<v Speaker 1>Him didn't add anything to her, did not detract from him,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think that that's one of the reasons why.

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<v Speaker 4>She are the diagnosis from Frank LUNs on Bloomberg TV

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<v Speaker 4>and Radio. All of that said, Frank, what did we

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<v Speaker 4>learn about our nation last night, particularly if this in

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<v Speaker 4>fact was about men versus women?

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<v Speaker 1>I love that question, and that's a question that we

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<v Speaker 1>need to be talking about over the coming weeks and months,

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<v Speaker 1>because there are some things that are more important than

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<v Speaker 1>an election.

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<v Speaker 3>It's the next generation. And what are they learning.

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<v Speaker 1>They're learning that it's okay to tell your opponent apart.

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<v Speaker 3>They're learning that there.

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<v Speaker 1>Is no bounds to negativity, that there are right and

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<v Speaker 1>wrong ways, but they need to learn that they're right

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<v Speaker 1>and wrong ways to approach politics, to approach economics, to

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<v Speaker 1>approach day to day life. And I'm just afraid that

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<v Speaker 1>what we now learned is the wrong thing, which is

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<v Speaker 1>as anything goes at any time for any reason, and

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<v Speaker 1>that fightens me for the future.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, Okay, So if we keep looking at demographics here

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<v Speaker 2>and what the future may hold, Frank, I look at

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump's victory in Miami Dade last night. We haven't

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<v Speaker 2>seen a Republican win that county for decades. It obviously

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<v Speaker 2>is majority Hispanic. We did see a sizable break among

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<v Speaker 2>Latinos for Donald Trump in a way we haven't seen

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<v Speaker 2>in the past. Obviously, movement for black voters as well.

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<v Speaker 2>And I wonder if you think those demographic shifts are

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<v Speaker 2>unique to this candidate who is now president elect, or

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<v Speaker 2>if that may be something more permanent.

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<v Speaker 1>It's unique to this candidate, but also to this time

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<v Speaker 1>that it doesn't matter with your white, black, brown, It

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't matter if you have trouble at fording food, put

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<v Speaker 1>food on your tables, put gas in your car, or

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<v Speaker 1>the healthcare you need and the housing that you want,

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<v Speaker 1>And it doesn't matter what your ethnicity is.

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<v Speaker 3>What matters is you're.

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<v Speaker 1>Struggling, you're living paycheck to paycheck, and that's what's happening

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<v Speaker 1>right now. And Donald Trump an empathy to that much

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<v Speaker 1>more explicitly than Harris did.

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<v Speaker 3>She tried to run away from it. Now.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's greatest weakness is he didn't focus enough on prices,

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<v Speaker 1>on costs, on affordability that instead he got sidetracked by

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<v Speaker 1>issues that did not matter.

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<v Speaker 3>And in fact, I want to acknowledge something.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to go back to that presidential debate that

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<v Speaker 1>clearly she did relatively well and he did relatively poorly.

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<v Speaker 3>In the end, it did not matter. I thought the

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<v Speaker 3>debate performance would cost.

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<v Speaker 1>Him his candidacy, and instead it actually did not matter.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's another learning that America has to face that

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<v Speaker 1>even when you put two candidates side by side, the

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<v Speaker 1>outcome does not necessarily matter and who wins for president.

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<v Speaker 4>Really great to have you back, Frank Frank Luntz, founder

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<v Speaker 4>CEO FI L and just the voice we were looking

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<v Speaker 4>to hear today. Thanks for being with us throughout this

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<v Speaker 4>entire campaign.