1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. 3 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:09,600 Speaker 2: Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, 4 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 2: and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moven news. 5 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:17,279 Speaker 1: Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever 6 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com Slash podcast. 7 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:24,920 Speaker 1: Big Big News Nugget Today on the Big I mean 8 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:29,160 Speaker 1: we have it's this NonStop. Microsoft wins a US court 9 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:31,640 Speaker 1: nod to buy Activision that remember this is a sixty 10 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:35,880 Speaker 1: nine billion dollar transaction to Federal Trade Commission was looking 11 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:38,239 Speaker 1: to kind of block this deal. The court said no, 12 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:41,560 Speaker 1: ruled in favor of Microsoft Activision stock Trading hire. 13 00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 3: Here. 14 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:44,200 Speaker 1: We want to get the details, and we're so fortunate 15 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:47,239 Speaker 1: to have Jenre with us because Jenri from Bloomberg Intelligence. 16 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 1: She covers all the anti trust issues across a number 17 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 1: of industries. She's really an expert on anti trust and 18 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 1: we want to get her sense of what's happening here. 19 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 1: So Jen, a big win for Microsoft and Activision, not 20 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 1: a good day for the Federal Trade Commission. What do 21 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 1: you take away from this? 22 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 4: There really isn't and you know, the Federal Trade Commission 23 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 4: is going to have to rack up a win one 24 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:09,480 Speaker 4: of these days because their track record is not so 25 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,600 Speaker 4: great yet. But this was really a big deal for Microsoft. 26 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:15,399 Speaker 4: This was make or break the deal. If they had 27 00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 4: lost today, they probably would have had to abandon because 28 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 4: the process then would have extended for years. So they 29 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 4: needed this to move forward. And now it looks like, 30 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 4: really they just have the UK to tackle. And since 31 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 4: the last time I talked to you, Paul, it looks 32 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:31,959 Speaker 4: like we have some developing news because they are talking 33 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 4: about suspending the litigation in the UK, which means to 34 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:38,319 Speaker 4: me they're probably talking settlement at this point with the 35 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 4: Competition and Markets Authority there. 36 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 3: So then would that mean the big barriers that were 37 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 3: in front of it are potentially out of place at 38 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 3: this point and it could more easily go through. 39 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 4: It looks like we're getting there absolutely if they can. 40 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 4: If they can get to some sort of a settlement 41 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 4: with the CMA and the UK, they're good to go. 42 00:01:57,080 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 5: Now. 43 00:01:57,320 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 6: I want to be clear, all that's. 44 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 4: Happened here today is that the refused to temporarily block 45 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 4: the closing of this merger. The FTC still has an 46 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 4: ongoing matter. Internally, it's called a part three, which is 47 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:11,919 Speaker 4: litigation to determine if the deal actually violates the antitrust laws. 48 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 6: There's nothing stopping. 49 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 4: The FTC from continuing to pursue that even if the 50 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 4: deal is closed. At that point, though, it really becomes 51 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:21,040 Speaker 4: much harder for them because what they have to do 52 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 4: is seek in order to unwind, which is even harder 53 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 4: than in order to block a deal that's vertical in nature, 54 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 4: which is tough to block to begin with. 55 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 6: But it doesn't necessarily mean even. 56 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 4: If they settle in the UK, even if they close 57 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:36,760 Speaker 4: the deal, doesn't necessarily mean that the legal challenge won't 58 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:40,240 Speaker 4: continue by the FTC. I would say, though, if that happens, 59 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:43,080 Speaker 4: I believe it's a losing battle on the FTC side. 60 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:46,239 Speaker 1: All right, And Activision stock up eleven percent. It was 61 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 1: up about five percent on the Microsoft on the when 62 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:50,639 Speaker 1: the court ruling came out, now up eleven percent. Maybe 63 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 1: getting a sense that the UK may there may be 64 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 1: a settlement there. So Jen, you're expert in kind of 65 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 1: working with a Department of Justice, the Federal Trade Commission, 66 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 1: all these regulatory bodies, and we know what the Biden 67 00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:06,240 Speaker 1: administration it has been taking a harder stance on deals 68 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 1: in general. 69 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:09,639 Speaker 7: This looks like a bad day for the FTC. How 70 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:10,240 Speaker 7: bad was it? 71 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 8: You know? 72 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:14,800 Speaker 6: I think it's pretty bad now. This was going to 73 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 6: be a tough battle going in. 74 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 4: As I said, this is a vertical deal, and it's 75 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 4: very hard to challenge a vertical deal. The last time 76 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 4: an agency tried to do that, it was the Department 77 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 4: of Justice with AT and T and Time Warner, and 78 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:30,920 Speaker 4: the DJ also lost that pretty resoundingly and also lost 79 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 4: on appeal. By the way, in that case, it is 80 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:37,080 Speaker 4: very hard to prove harm when companies are vertically integrating. 81 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 4: It's very different than when two competitors come together. Because 82 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 4: that concentrates a market. It's much more obvious how that 83 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 4: might cause some consumer harm, and in a vertical situation 84 00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 4: it's less obvious and harder to prove. 85 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:50,440 Speaker 6: But I do think this was a big test. 86 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 4: I mean, the FTC is simply trying to stop many companies, 87 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:58,000 Speaker 4: but in particular big tech platforms, from growing through acquisition. 88 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 4: They tried to stop Meta from buying Within. They've now 89 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 4: tried to stop Microsoft from buying Activision, and they haven't 90 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 4: had success. It doesn't bode well for any future challenges, 91 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 4: I think that may be coming up. 92 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 3: As far as when it comes to future challenges, what 93 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 3: potential other mergers are on your radar that you're keeping 94 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 3: a close eye on. 95 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:20,920 Speaker 4: Well, I'm really watching Adobe Figma carefully because that's been 96 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 4: pending for a while and the company's finished up their 97 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:26,480 Speaker 4: investigation in mid March, so I think something should happen 98 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:29,479 Speaker 4: there at any time that's before the Department of Justice, 99 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:32,719 Speaker 4: and I tend to think there will be a lawsuit 100 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:34,719 Speaker 4: to try to block it, because it sort of hits 101 00:04:34,760 --> 00:04:37,920 Speaker 4: an area of heightened sensitivity right now, which it has 102 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:42,120 Speaker 4: the appearance of an incumbent buying a sort of smaller, scrappier, 103 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 4: nascent competitor, a company that's posing some competition now but 104 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:48,279 Speaker 4: might grow into a bigger competitive threat in the future 105 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 4: if it stays independent. So I think there could be 106 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 4: a lawsuit there. There's a little bit you know, broad 107 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 4: Common VMware is also pending. I just saw some breaking 108 00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 4: news that that might get clearance in Europe. I think 109 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:03,400 Speaker 4: that a deadline there is something like next week for 110 00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:06,679 Speaker 4: the European decision. If that happens, I think that votes 111 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:10,599 Speaker 4: pretty well for getting clear And elsewhere we have Kroger 112 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:13,960 Speaker 4: and Albertson's very big grocery deal that's pending before the 113 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:15,719 Speaker 4: Federal Trade Commission, So we'll have to. 114 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 6: See in second half. 115 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 4: We could certainly see either a settlement there or a 116 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 4: lawsuit to block. I tend to lean more toward to 117 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 4: lawsuit to block because we just haven't seen a lot 118 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:29,479 Speaker 4: of settlement activity by this FTC or DOJ yet. 119 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 6: In the last year. 120 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 4: And then we have the pending litigation Jeck Blue and Spirit. 121 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 4: The Department of Justice has already challenged that and that's 122 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 4: going to start trial in October. 123 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:40,599 Speaker 6: So I'm watching that one as well. 124 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:41,920 Speaker 7: Lots of follow Hey, Jen. 125 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 1: We also have the folks from the PGA Tour testifying 126 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:50,919 Speaker 1: in front of Congress today pending merger between the PGA 127 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 1: Tour and the Live Tour, including a big investment from 128 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:57,560 Speaker 1: a Saudi investment fund. I'm not sure if you're a 129 00:05:57,560 --> 00:06:01,159 Speaker 1: golf fan, but is there antitrust risk because that sounds 130 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 1: like a horizontal deal. 131 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:06,040 Speaker 4: It is, And you know, Paul, I'll say, I'm kind 132 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:07,360 Speaker 4: of adjacent golf fan. 133 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 6: That kind of means a huge golf fan, and that makes. 134 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 4: Me adjacent, right, So sometimes I'm in front of the 135 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:13,560 Speaker 4: TV watching some of this stuff. 136 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:16,360 Speaker 6: Yes, I agree with you. 137 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:20,840 Speaker 4: That's a horizontal deal that superficially facially looks anti competitive, 138 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 4: like a merger to monopoly or near to it. And 139 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:27,320 Speaker 4: so it's very surprising from an anti trust perspective that 140 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:28,320 Speaker 4: they move forward with this. 141 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:28,840 Speaker 6: Now. 142 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:32,839 Speaker 4: Congress is also worried about national security issues, so I 143 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:36,320 Speaker 4: think today's hearing may actually it covers both. I think 144 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 4: it may be more focused on national security, you know, 145 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 4: the idea perhaps that the saudiast could get in their 146 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:46,560 Speaker 4: hands the data of US golf fans, golf golf consumers, 147 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:49,839 Speaker 4: or even other issues. But from an anti trust perspective, Paul, 148 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 4: it looks like a very difficult deal to do to me. 149 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:56,840 Speaker 4: And golf doesn't have an anti trust exemption like some 150 00:06:56,920 --> 00:07:00,960 Speaker 4: other sports leagues. For instance, baseball has some limited trust exemptions. 151 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:03,240 Speaker 4: Golf does not have that. So we'll have to see 152 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:05,840 Speaker 4: what happens here. We do know that DOJ has already 153 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:09,520 Speaker 4: opened an investigation the Ant Trust Division, so they're looking 154 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 4: at it. They'll be investigating it, and if they filed 155 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:15,680 Speaker 4: a lawsuit to challenge that merger wouldn't surprise me at all. 156 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:18,360 Speaker 3: Any indication of how long it could be before we 157 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 3: get some more news about Microsoft and activision ah soon. 158 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 4: I think we're going to get news every day because 159 00:07:25,720 --> 00:07:28,640 Speaker 4: their end date is July eighteenth, right, that's next Tuesday, 160 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 4: So they really want to close before July eighteenth. So 161 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 4: I suspect they're talking right now very earnestly with the 162 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 4: UK CMA, trying to reach some sort of settlement, maybe 163 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 4: even with an agreement that let them close before their 164 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:46,040 Speaker 4: July eighteenth date, so maybe Monday or even this Friday 165 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 4: and hold separate if they need to for continued discussions 166 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 4: with the UK, or if a settlement can't be reached, 167 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:55,480 Speaker 4: to go through the appeal, because holding a company separate 168 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 4: obviously makes it much easier down the road to unwind 169 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 4: the deal if the UK were to veil. But I 170 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 4: suspect at this point, given overwhelmingly the global regulators who 171 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 4: cleared this deal, you know, Europe didn't only clear it 172 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 4: that Europe said the settlement was pro competitive, that it 173 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 4: wasn't just neutral, that it was pro competitive, and I 174 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:16,520 Speaker 4: think there's a lot of pressure on the CMA to 175 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 4: let this go forward, also with some kind of a 176 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 4: behavioral settlement promises by Microsoft not to take these Games exclusive. 177 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 7: All right, Jen, thanks so much for joining us. Really 178 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 7: appreciate it. 179 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 1: Jenri antitrust litigation analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence, pining on a 180 00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:35,680 Speaker 1: number of deals. The big news today Microsoft getting a 181 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:40,679 Speaker 1: court clearance to proceed next steps with its Penning acquisition activision. 182 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:43,839 Speaker 1: I remember that's a gaming company and this transaction is fight. 183 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 1: It's sixty nine billion dollars, so even by Microsoft's standards, 184 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 1: pretty darn material. 185 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 7: We'll have more reporting on that going forward. 186 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 9: You're listening to the team Ken's are Line program Bloomberg 187 00:08:56,720 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 9: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, 188 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 9: the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listening 189 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 9: on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 190 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:11,600 Speaker 1: I'm looking at the Bloomberg Commodity Index exactly, and you 191 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 1: know from its high recent high back in August September 192 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 1: of last year, it's then about almost twenty percent, so 193 00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:19,559 Speaker 1: that there's yeh, disinflation for you, I guess. But we 194 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:21,439 Speaker 1: got some in our studio here who knows a lot 195 00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: more than we did. David Schastler, portfolio manager and head 196 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:26,720 Speaker 1: of quantitative investment Solutions at van Neck, joins us here 197 00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 1: in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio David talk to us, 198 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 1: tell you guys at van Neck, how you guys trade 199 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 1: invest in commodities? 200 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:38,479 Speaker 10: Sure, so we manage a commodity fund, the tickers pit pit. 201 00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 10: It's throw back to the old commodity pits. Really what 202 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 10: we do. It's a quantitative approach. So we're looking at 203 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 10: a few different things. The first, we're looking at what 204 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:49,720 Speaker 10: is the structure of the curve, so are we in 205 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 10: backwardation or canentangle? If we're in backwardation, it's an implication 206 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 10: that there's some likely supply issues bullshtign so that's something 207 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:01,000 Speaker 10: that we watch closely. Second Ndarily, what we're doing is 208 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:04,079 Speaker 10: we're looking at prices and seeing are these commodities well 209 00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:06,959 Speaker 10: behaved or not. Clearly, natural gas has not been We've 210 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 10: been significantly underweighted for a very long time now. And 211 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 10: then the third mean reversion commodities are super cool in 212 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:18,439 Speaker 10: the sense of they may not have the most attractive 213 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:20,720 Speaker 10: return stream, but they're always zigging and zag right and 214 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:23,520 Speaker 10: if you watch those zig and zags relative to each other, 215 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 10: there's usually an opportunity. So we will look for mean 216 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:30,080 Speaker 10: reversion opportunities within there. So it's a very active strategy 217 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 10: and that's. 218 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:32,600 Speaker 3: What we do. So how are you advising clients to 219 00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 3: position at this. 220 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:36,800 Speaker 10: Point within commodities or from an overall acid allocation? 221 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 3: Start with commodities first. 222 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:41,960 Speaker 10: Within commodities, right now, we are bullish on energy. We 223 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:45,280 Speaker 10: have a round of fifty percent allocation five zero percent 224 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 10: allocation to commodities, significantly higher than what you reference before 225 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 10: with the Bloomberg Commodity Index. We're bullish on oil right 226 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 10: We've got a big CPI report coming out tomorrow. Don't 227 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:56,559 Speaker 10: have a big view on that, but if you look 228 00:10:56,600 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 10: at the CPI trends, inflation's falling largely because energy prices 229 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 10: are falling. We don't think that that trend continues. In fact, 230 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:06,920 Speaker 10: we're obviously betting in the opposite direction. 231 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 7: A lot of those issues. 232 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:12,760 Speaker 10: We think are behind us. Lower prices, softer prices are 233 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:18,840 Speaker 10: discouraging production, right Saudi Arabia reducing production, eating into supply. 234 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:22,319 Speaker 10: Obviously the spr stuff largely behind us. We think loial 235 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:26,280 Speaker 10: prices firm up here, go higher. Clearly we're betting on that. 236 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 3: So then the production issues would be the catalyst to 237 00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:30,080 Speaker 3: moving energy prices. 238 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 10: Yes, so hate to be bearish on the economy, but 239 00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:38,360 Speaker 10: we are okay, But there's a relatively inelasticity of demand 240 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:40,679 Speaker 10: when it comes to energy prices, when it comes to oil. 241 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:44,520 Speaker 10: So we think we can see a softening and demand modestly. 242 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 10: We think that the supply side is where the juice 243 00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:49,720 Speaker 10: is in the story, and we think that that's what 244 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:52,320 Speaker 10: drives that's what firms up prices and eventually drives them 245 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 10: higher as we move later in the year. 246 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:57,439 Speaker 1: And now that the contra cost to this is Bloomberg intelligence. 247 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:01,680 Speaker 1: Mike mcgloan are commodity strategist. He says, if Miami Mikey 248 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:04,120 Speaker 1: says it goes to fifty before it goes to one hundred, 249 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:07,559 Speaker 1: it's just that's the and his thing is and I 250 00:12:07,559 --> 00:12:09,440 Speaker 1: actually I won't speak for it, but anyway, so and 251 00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:11,560 Speaker 1: I guess the bearish call is just demand that the 252 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 1: demand curve is outweighing the supply curve. Here is at 253 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 1: a concern of you that demand out there, whether it's 254 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 1: Russian up being as strong as we thought, whether it's 255 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:22,280 Speaker 1: being the continued tensions in Ukraine or whatever, maybe a 256 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:24,920 Speaker 1: recession in the US. How do you think about the 257 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:26,880 Speaker 1: demand side of the of the energy space. 258 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:30,760 Speaker 10: Demand softening continues to soften because we do have a 259 00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 10: bearish view on the economy. That's what's likely going to 260 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:36,000 Speaker 10: happen when the FED takes the juice bowl away. So 261 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 10: we think that that's going to continue. But it's a 262 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:41,079 Speaker 10: supply side story, so we'll think that the supply side 263 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:44,520 Speaker 10: is going to cause an imbalance sends oil prices higher. Now, 264 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:46,719 Speaker 10: if we're talking two to three months out, he may 265 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:48,679 Speaker 10: be right, we may be right. But if we're talking 266 00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:50,840 Speaker 10: six twelve months out, we think that we're right. 267 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 3: So we talked about positioning specifically in the commodity space, 268 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 3: what about more broadly. 269 00:12:56,320 --> 00:13:00,240 Speaker 10: Our view, broadly speaking, is that investors should have an 270 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:05,320 Speaker 10: allocation of ten to fifteen percent to assets with scarcity. 271 00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:09,280 Speaker 10: We're talking about commodities, we're talking about natural resource equities, 272 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 10: we're talking about gold bullying gold equities. These are the 273 00:13:12,679 --> 00:13:16,440 Speaker 10: assets that have historically performed the best during periods of 274 00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 10: high inflation. Now quick preview one r view on inflation 275 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:24,480 Speaker 10: This time is not different, meaning inflation doesn't happen often, 276 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:27,080 Speaker 10: but when it does happen, it sticks around for an 277 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:29,960 Speaker 10: extended period of time. We think that that's what happens. 278 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:33,160 Speaker 10: CPI again being pulled back because of energy prices. We 279 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:37,280 Speaker 10: think that reverses with periods of inflation, pockets of inflation, 280 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 10: disinflationary pockets, pockets of inflation. It comes in waves. We 281 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 10: are right now in a disinflationary wave. We've said it 282 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 10: for a long time. Once you get into one of 283 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:49,839 Speaker 10: these disinflationary waves, everybody's going to come out of the 284 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:52,199 Speaker 10: closet again and say, listen, we knew that inflation wasn't 285 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 10: gonna happen. It was only temporary. That crowd's gonna come 286 00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:56,120 Speaker 10: back out. They're going to be really, really loud. We 287 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 10: think that they get tricked again. Inflation continues, and we 288 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 10: end up with an average level of inflation significantly above 289 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:06,800 Speaker 10: two percent. During these regimes, you want to own assets 290 00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 10: with scarcity. I look at the S and P five 291 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 10: hundred right now, I get very nervous. I see a 292 00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 10: rich index. I see an imbalance index. I see an 293 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:19,440 Speaker 10: index that is dominated by the five biggest technology companies 294 00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:23,479 Speaker 10: that have negative earning yield relative to short term treasuries. 295 00:14:23,680 --> 00:14:26,880 Speaker 10: Then I look over at energy stocks. I see positive 296 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 10: earning yields. I look over at diversified minors. I see 297 00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 10: positive earning yields. I sit there, I scratch my head 298 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 10: and say, how can you be comfortable with the s 299 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:39,239 Speaker 10: and P five hundred when you see such attractive opportunities, 300 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:42,720 Speaker 10: specifically with an energy. Most attractive segment of the market right. 301 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 5: Now in our opinion sugar. 302 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 7: I like sugar. 303 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:47,920 Speaker 10: We've been bullish sugar for a long time. 304 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 7: Now, how do you what's what's the call on sugar? 305 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:54,080 Speaker 10: So we've been bullish on it, We've taken profits on it, 306 00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 10: We're likely going to continue to do so. That's a 307 00:14:56,960 --> 00:15:00,320 Speaker 10: supplied demand imbalanced story. We pick that up BA of 308 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:03,680 Speaker 10: all of our technicals. We're still bullsh on it. We 309 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 10: maintain our Bush position on it. It's just a situation 310 00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 10: when you look at the commodity complex and you look 311 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:13,480 Speaker 10: at energy, and we see probably better opportunities there going 312 00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 10: forward than with sugar. But we've done well with the. 313 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:18,880 Speaker 7: Sugar of seventeen percent year to date? Is it? 314 00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:22,440 Speaker 1: So if you invest in sugar, you just think the 315 00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:24,320 Speaker 1: demands gonna higher than the supply, right? I mean it's 316 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 1: just a commodity or is that kind of how you 317 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 1: go back? 318 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:28,680 Speaker 10: That's that's the case for all commodities. 319 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:29,320 Speaker 7: Yeah, that's right. 320 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 1: So you just think that demand is higher than a supply. 321 00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 1: So it has it been a supply issue that you 322 00:15:33,640 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 1: guys got right or was it the demand side? 323 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 10: It has been a supply issue that we got right. 324 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:40,880 Speaker 10: Why do we get it right though? We got it 325 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 10: right because we read the tee lea's from the technicals 326 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 10: of the market. So again, what are our three pillars 327 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:50,600 Speaker 10: of investing. We look at the structure of the future's curve, 328 00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 10: We look at the price of it. It had an 329 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 10: attractive return profile and that's why we were biased towards it. Now, 330 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:02,360 Speaker 10: why was all that happening because of the weather situations? 331 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 10: Because of what happened on the underlying supply side of sugar, 332 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 10: and that was the catalyst. 333 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 7: Where do you grow? Where's sugar grown? Where do we 334 00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:10,920 Speaker 7: get sugar sugars? 335 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 10: India's big produce explorer, sugars sugars across the board? 336 00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:15,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, I don't know if it was like some 337 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 1: part of the world that was having a drought or 338 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:18,360 Speaker 1: this or that. 339 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 10: Yeah, so we read that, We read the tea leaves 340 00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:25,480 Speaker 10: from the technicals. The technicals are driven from the supplied 341 00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:29,000 Speaker 10: demanded balances. But we are not fundamental analysts. What we're 342 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:32,080 Speaker 10: doing is we're looking at the structure of the curve 343 00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 10: supply demand in balance. 344 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:37,040 Speaker 3: What about infrastructure, because I know that's another big part 345 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 3: when you're looking at the allocation within your ETF. 346 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:45,520 Speaker 10: Infrastructure is really cool in the sense of if you 347 00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:48,320 Speaker 10: are a bearish on the economy and you want to 348 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:52,920 Speaker 10: protect profit margins, think of companies that have effectively you 349 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 10: can almost think about it as contract pricing. Think of 350 00:16:55,480 --> 00:17:00,520 Speaker 10: toll ros, airports, helports. These are businesses that are really 351 00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:04,240 Speaker 10: insulated from inflation, so they can maintain profit margins and 352 00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:07,040 Speaker 10: they are very defensive if we roll into a recession, 353 00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:10,600 Speaker 10: which unfortunately is likely to happen given where we are 354 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:14,159 Speaker 10: right So when we think about the portfolio right now, 355 00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:17,840 Speaker 10: we're invested in infrastructure through our inflation allocation. ETF ticker 356 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:21,879 Speaker 10: racks are a AX, it's around a sixteen percent allocation. 357 00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:25,600 Speaker 10: If the economy has a crash landing, obviously commodities are 358 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 10: going to be vulnerable there, and we look at the 359 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:30,399 Speaker 10: portfolio and say what should do well. Infrastructure should do 360 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:32,720 Speaker 10: very well in that environment. That's why it's there. It's 361 00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:36,400 Speaker 10: there's diverse fire, it's there to maintain profit margins. If 362 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:38,200 Speaker 10: inflation continues, which we expect. 363 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 7: Man, I learned a lot today, Sugar, Look, get this 364 00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:42,360 Speaker 7: guy back. 365 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 1: David Schessler, portfolio manager and head of Quantitative Investment Solutions 366 00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:49,280 Speaker 1: at van K doing commodities. Lots of symbols out there 367 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 1: to follow some of those now, are those, David, just 368 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:54,520 Speaker 1: real quick? Are those funds or those ETFs? Etf ETFs? Okay, 369 00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:57,160 Speaker 1: god forbid. Anybody does is a nu mutri fed fun 370 00:17:57,200 --> 00:17:57,840 Speaker 1: business anymore. 371 00:17:57,840 --> 00:17:58,560 Speaker 7: It's all ETFs. 372 00:17:58,720 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 11: It definitely is. 373 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:01,159 Speaker 7: That's what the kids auld. I get it. I get it. 374 00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:03,159 Speaker 1: The days of me going up to Boston seeing all 375 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:05,439 Speaker 1: the big mutual funds. I think that's a thing in 376 00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:08,199 Speaker 1: the past. David Schasler, thanks so much for joining us. 377 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:11,600 Speaker 9: You're listening to the tape Ken's Are Live program Bloomberg 378 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:15,280 Speaker 9: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 379 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:18,560 Speaker 9: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 380 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:21,399 Speaker 9: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 381 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:25,800 Speaker 9: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 382 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:30,960 Speaker 3: Jess met Paul Sweety here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers 383 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:32,800 Speaker 3: Studio and Paul as you know, we've been discussing so 384 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,639 Speaker 3: much about those big banks coming up reporting earnings, but 385 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 3: also when it comes to the fed's Vice Chair for Supervision, 386 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:42,320 Speaker 3: Michael Barr is proposing those big bank regulation changes. What 387 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:44,359 Speaker 3: would happen with banks with at least one hundred billion 388 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 3: dollars in assets could face higher capital limits? So who 389 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:50,920 Speaker 3: better to speak with us about both of those two topics? 390 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 3: And Alison Williams, senior Global Banks and Asset manager analysts 391 00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 3: with Bloomberg Intelligence, who's here in studio with us? So 392 00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:00,680 Speaker 3: I'll start off Allison. When it comes to these changes 393 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 3: that Michael Barr is proposing, can you walk us through 394 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 3: what that really means in how the banking industry is 395 00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:07,600 Speaker 3: reacting to this. 396 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,720 Speaker 12: So we're still waiting for the finalization, but I think 397 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:14,960 Speaker 12: the surprising things were one that he went down to 398 00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:19,800 Speaker 12: the hundred billion market cap I'm sorry, not market cap 399 00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:23,520 Speaker 12: by asset size. And then also you know he was 400 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 12: saying basically adding, you know, it would add like two 401 00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:29,840 Speaker 12: percentage points two dollars for every one hundred billion in 402 00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:31,440 Speaker 12: risk weighted assets, So. 403 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:34,680 Speaker 11: Two dollars for everye hundred dollars. 404 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:36,480 Speaker 12: I can't get away from saying the wrong thing here. 405 00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 12: But anyway, the bottom line is, can we just get 406 00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:41,679 Speaker 12: the final rules. The Bank's been waiting for these for 407 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:45,160 Speaker 12: a long time, and so I think that's why maybe 408 00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 12: you didn't see much movement in the stocks yesterday, because 409 00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:50,680 Speaker 12: you know, Powell had already hinted at sort of a 410 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,399 Speaker 12: twenty percent increase in capital required. Now we have this 411 00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 12: other hint, so we're still waiting to get the proposal. 412 00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:58,719 Speaker 12: The other thing that we got, which is sort of 413 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:00,880 Speaker 12: old news now, but we did get the stress tests. 414 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:04,520 Speaker 12: The banks all did well except for a city, and 415 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:07,960 Speaker 12: so that signal their requirements are coming down. So that's 416 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:11,040 Speaker 12: a key positive of banks are staying conservative, partly because 417 00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:14,560 Speaker 12: of the Basil three endgame, and then you know, partly 418 00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:15,520 Speaker 12: because of the economy. 419 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:19,640 Speaker 1: So why are some of these new, I guess rules 420 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 1: for the banks is this response to the some of 421 00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:24,960 Speaker 1: those smaller banks stressed a few months ago. 422 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:25,920 Speaker 11: So I think. 423 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 12: Maybe the the you know, dipping down to the applying 424 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 12: the rules to a broader set of banks. 425 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:33,440 Speaker 11: I think it definitely comes to. 426 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:36,359 Speaker 1: That, Okay, but it seems to me there's already a 427 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 1: lot of rules for the banks. Maybe I'm just paraphrasing 428 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:41,840 Speaker 1: Jamie Dimond here, but they just weren't enforced efficiently at 429 00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:44,080 Speaker 1: all for some of these banks. It wasn't like there's 430 00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:46,520 Speaker 1: not enough rules there, so that the existing rules were 431 00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:48,920 Speaker 1: not efficiently enforced probably well. 432 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:51,280 Speaker 12: And and part of it is right that you know, 433 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,400 Speaker 12: the rules are always you know, solving the last crisis. 434 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 12: So one thing that we we know that happened since 435 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:02,080 Speaker 12: the global financial crisis is just the fact that, you know, 436 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 12: the mortgage market has been tight, and so like that's 437 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:06,200 Speaker 12: the one area we don't even worry about this time 438 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:08,040 Speaker 12: around the residential mortgage. 439 00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:10,919 Speaker 11: We excuse me, do you worry about commercial mortgage? But 440 00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 11: it hasn't been a while since we've had to worry 441 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 11: about that. 442 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,160 Speaker 3: So Michael Barr basically saying that America's biggest banks are 443 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 3: going to need more capital, But what about when it 444 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:21,800 Speaker 3: comes to these regional banks. To Paul's point, that obviously 445 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:24,640 Speaker 3: we're under those stresses during the spring, and what does 446 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 3: that mean moving forward for some of these mid size 447 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:27,679 Speaker 3: or smaller banks. 448 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,520 Speaker 12: And that's why to Paul's point, I think that's why 449 00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:34,439 Speaker 12: we did get some regulations reaching out to these you know, 450 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 12: super regional. 451 00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:38,680 Speaker 11: And big regional banks. Right, So it's not the smaller community. 452 00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:44,200 Speaker 12: Banks, but some of those regulations in recent years under 453 00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:47,480 Speaker 12: quarrels had actually been rolled back, and so I think 454 00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 12: sort of bringing them back into the phrase is part 455 00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:50,840 Speaker 12: of the issue. 456 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:52,200 Speaker 11: But I would. 457 00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:55,440 Speaker 12: Say, you know, the key issue that sort of brought 458 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:59,439 Speaker 12: down those three banks, it was asset liability management. But 459 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:01,840 Speaker 12: it was a odd issue that happened across the banking 460 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:05,439 Speaker 12: sector where you had this huge inflow of deposits that 461 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,240 Speaker 12: was invested in securities, then rates went the other way, right, 462 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 12: That's what caused it was the catalyst for these these 463 00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:17,520 Speaker 12: three banks that, as I said, the asset valuability management 464 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:20,440 Speaker 12: was part of it, right, because what you saw for 465 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 12: banks that managed it well was to say, look, we 466 00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:25,800 Speaker 12: know these aren't these deposits on permanent We're not going 467 00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,320 Speaker 12: to tie them up in something that's going to potentially 468 00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:29,840 Speaker 12: make us a liquid all right. 469 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 1: So we're gonna have some big banks reporting on Friday, 470 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:37,639 Speaker 1: which means we'll probably see you again, JP, Morgan, Wells, 471 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:39,440 Speaker 1: Farga and City Group. 472 00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:42,960 Speaker 7: So three of the biggies. What are we looking for here? 473 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:46,560 Speaker 1: I can't imagine the capital markets business has been anything 474 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 1: to write home about. 475 00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:49,320 Speaker 7: What are you really going to be looking at Uh. 476 00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:51,920 Speaker 12: It's not, and I think like there there's definitely a 477 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:55,080 Speaker 12: dichotomy in terms of the trading and feasts. 478 00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:56,440 Speaker 11: So I guess, you. 479 00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:57,600 Speaker 12: Know, if you just look at it sort of a 480 00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:01,280 Speaker 12: one quarter of view, you'll see everything down. But trading 481 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,800 Speaker 12: is really normalizing into a historically high level. So if 482 00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:07,240 Speaker 12: you look at a very long term chart, yes, trading 483 00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:09,479 Speaker 12: is coming down a bit, but we're normalizing in an 484 00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:13,280 Speaker 12: historically high level. Fees, on the other hand, are studying 485 00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:17,159 Speaker 12: in levels closer to pre pandemic, so very low levels. 486 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:19,360 Speaker 12: So one of the big things we're going to see 487 00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:22,880 Speaker 12: this quarter, our higher expense is tied to severance and 488 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 12: we're going to see you know, banks finally, I think 489 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 12: coming to terms with the fact that, okay, this huge 490 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:33,120 Speaker 12: boom that we saw in twenty twenty one is not 491 00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:37,200 Speaker 12: likely to repeat anytime soon, and we are hearing banks, 492 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,080 Speaker 12: you know, talk about some signs of life at the 493 00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:42,399 Speaker 12: end of the second quarter, some pickup in activity, but 494 00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:45,480 Speaker 12: you know, if you follow the money, the headcount cuts 495 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:47,360 Speaker 12: and as I said, a lot of the severance charges. 496 00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:49,440 Speaker 11: I think that you know, banks are. 497 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:52,600 Speaker 12: Sort of recognizing that, you know, we are going to 498 00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:54,040 Speaker 12: be studying at these lower levels. 499 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,280 Speaker 3: What do you think that interest margins will tell us? 500 00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,480 Speaker 3: Obviously that's a key gauge when you're thinking about the 501 00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:01,360 Speaker 3: profitability indicator when it comes to a lot of these 502 00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:01,959 Speaker 3: big banks. 503 00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:06,160 Speaker 12: So I think, you know, my views is perhaps different 504 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:08,199 Speaker 12: than some of the some of the other analysts that 505 00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:08,880 Speaker 12: you've heard out there. 506 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,440 Speaker 11: Maybe it's just because of the banks. 507 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:14,679 Speaker 12: That I'm looking at, But for banks like JP Morgan 508 00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:17,520 Speaker 12: and City Group that have big credit card portfolios, we 509 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,200 Speaker 12: think that their margin could and their net interested income 510 00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:25,480 Speaker 12: actually could be a little bit more resilient versus the 511 00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:29,680 Speaker 12: other banks where commercial and industrial loans, so that's sort 512 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:30,359 Speaker 12: of the bread and butter of. 513 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:31,200 Speaker 11: The commercial banks. 514 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 12: Bank America is also one a relatively bigger player in 515 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:39,280 Speaker 12: that market. Those loans are actually shrinking, coming in a 516 00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:41,919 Speaker 12: little bit softer than expected. Bank America talked about some 517 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:45,760 Speaker 12: of their utilization rates, you know, things stab stabilizing. They 518 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:47,760 Speaker 12: thought things were going to get a little bit better there, 519 00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 12: but they're not. And so I think for those banks 520 00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:55,639 Speaker 12: you could get net income a little bit softer than expected. 521 00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,080 Speaker 12: But I would keep in mind that the net interest 522 00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:01,560 Speaker 12: income numbers, I mean, we are at a hugely robust level. 523 00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:06,119 Speaker 12: It's just that investors are looking at you know, stocks 524 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:07,720 Speaker 12: are discounting mechanisms. 525 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:09,680 Speaker 11: We look forward and you know. 526 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:12,879 Speaker 12: The question is, you know, how far do we start 527 00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:14,280 Speaker 12: going down from here? 528 00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 7: All right, so thirty seconds here? What do you expect 529 00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 7: Jamie Diamond to say? That's too hard to predict. 530 00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,040 Speaker 12: You know what, I if I'm gonna guess he's going 531 00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:27,560 Speaker 12: to talk about the regulations and really, like when you 532 00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,399 Speaker 12: look at what's happening with these capital requirements, it's a 533 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:31,560 Speaker 12: it's a little bit crazy. 534 00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:33,520 Speaker 11: I mean, this is a key metric. It's something that 535 00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:35,280 Speaker 11: we all agree on is important for the banks. 536 00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 9: Yep. 537 00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:38,959 Speaker 12: Last year huge increases, this year, huge decreases. 538 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:39,920 Speaker 11: How do you manage your. 539 00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,879 Speaker 12: Business one year to year one of the most important 540 00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:46,800 Speaker 12: metrics continues to change and then, as you said, all 541 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:48,640 Speaker 12: the regulations, all the different mix. 542 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,879 Speaker 7: Yep, it's a lot, I know. I mean, Jamie Diamond's 543 00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:52,119 Speaker 7: called that. 544 00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:54,720 Speaker 1: JP Morgan calls a call I always listen into because 545 00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:56,240 Speaker 1: you just never know what he's going to say. He 546 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,879 Speaker 1: feels free to say pretty much anything he does, and 547 00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:02,080 Speaker 1: his filter is very and it makes for good listening. 548 00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:05,520 Speaker 1: Allison Williams, Senior Global banks analyts for Bloomberg Intelligence. Joining 549 00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:07,360 Speaker 1: us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. 550 00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:12,040 Speaker 9: You're listening to the team Ken's are Live program Bloomberg 551 00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:15,520 Speaker 9: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 552 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,720 Speaker 9: the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen 553 00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:20,920 Speaker 9: on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 554 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:23,560 Speaker 7: Let's shift gears here. 555 00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:27,000 Speaker 1: Let's talk a little bit telecom, TMT, tech media, Telecom. 556 00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:29,399 Speaker 1: We'll bring in John Butler. He's a senior analyst at 557 00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:31,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence. Joining us life here in our Bloomberg Interactive 558 00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:34,680 Speaker 1: Broker Studio. John, You've been covering telecom for a long time. 559 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:38,400 Speaker 1: I'd like to start with the wireless business. Where are 560 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,359 Speaker 1: we today in terms of the players. 561 00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:43,800 Speaker 7: The market share and is this market growing at all? 562 00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,840 Speaker 13: Boy, it's getting awfully crowded in the wireless market these days. 563 00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:48,159 Speaker 8: You know. 564 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:52,479 Speaker 13: The latest rumor is that Amazon may enter the market 565 00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:53,720 Speaker 13: through a deal with Dish. 566 00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:57,600 Speaker 5: We'll see how that plays out. But it's a. 567 00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:01,080 Speaker 13: Slow growth year this year, and I think COVID disrupted 568 00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:04,600 Speaker 13: a lot of industries and wireless has been no exception. 569 00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:05,840 Speaker 5: You know, we saw. 570 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:11,200 Speaker 13: Very strong device growth during the outbreak. I think people 571 00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:13,520 Speaker 13: were buying a lot of phones for their kids that 572 00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,400 Speaker 13: they might otherwise not buy. They were connecting a lot 573 00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:21,119 Speaker 13: of devices, and so we're living through that hangover. You know, 574 00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:24,240 Speaker 13: the world's getting back to normal device growth and new 575 00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,560 Speaker 13: line growth is coming down. And now you've got the 576 00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:32,359 Speaker 13: added pressure on pricing coming from the cable operators like Dish, 577 00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:36,440 Speaker 13: like Comcast and Charter, and now the specter of Amazon 578 00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:38,000 Speaker 13: may be getting into the business. 579 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:40,159 Speaker 3: I wanted to get your thoughts when it comes to 580 00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:42,800 Speaker 3: valuations in the TMT sectors. So I'm looking at some 581 00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:46,000 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Intelligence data when it comes to the forward earnings 582 00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,960 Speaker 3: for that and right now it's around twenty two times 583 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:52,440 Speaker 3: forward earnings. But when you're excluding Microsoft, Apple, Google, Meta, 584 00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:56,600 Speaker 3: it's abound nineteen times. So what does that really tell us? 585 00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:58,800 Speaker 3: And are things still too pricey even if you're excluding 586 00:27:58,800 --> 00:27:59,840 Speaker 3: some of those big names. 587 00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:04,720 Speaker 13: So I need to tread carefully with some commentary on valuation. 588 00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:08,679 Speaker 13: But you know, it's no secret that the tech sector 589 00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:11,840 Speaker 13: in general has done very well in this environment. I 590 00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:15,520 Speaker 13: think people are responding to growth there. So you know 591 00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:18,480 Speaker 13: the tech names that I cover, Zoom is a good example, 592 00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:22,760 Speaker 13: ring Central Cloud, flare. A number of those names continue 593 00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:26,520 Speaker 13: to post double digit growth, even you know, during this 594 00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:31,160 Speaker 13: tough economic environment, and so I think that may account 595 00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:34,879 Speaker 13: for some of what you were referring to, the relatiatively 596 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:38,560 Speaker 13: inflated multiple relative to the broader market. 597 00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:41,720 Speaker 1: So talk to us about the broadband business, John, because 598 00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:45,240 Speaker 1: that was such a growth business for the telecom companies, 599 00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:50,080 Speaker 1: the cable companies. Everybody needed more broadband, we doing downloading 600 00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:52,000 Speaker 1: video and all this kind of great stuff. Where are 601 00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:55,640 Speaker 1: we in terms of that market and how'shaking out competitively? 602 00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:56,080 Speaker 9: Well? 603 00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:59,040 Speaker 13: That I think, Paul is part of the double whammy 604 00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:03,520 Speaker 13: for the telcosen the cable operators in that that market 605 00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:08,360 Speaker 13: is maturing now and also becoming price competitive. I think 606 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:13,400 Speaker 13: the good news there is that our appetite for content 607 00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 13: and downloading more and more content, and as content gets 608 00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:23,240 Speaker 13: more bandwidth intensive, as we move up to HD streaming, 609 00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:28,320 Speaker 13: you know that people are trading up to higher priced plans. 610 00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:32,320 Speaker 13: But in terms of organic growth new line think of 611 00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:35,720 Speaker 13: it as new line growth that is really moderating here, 612 00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:39,320 Speaker 13: and so I would call that markets as mature as 613 00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:40,440 Speaker 13: wireless right now. 614 00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:43,200 Speaker 3: So if you take a look at what's happening with 615 00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:46,640 Speaker 3: American Tower. That's something that's interesting to me, and you 616 00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:49,320 Speaker 3: were talking about in a note recently about how overseas 617 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,560 Speaker 3: expansion is offsetting the churn there. What do you see 618 00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:54,800 Speaker 3: when it comes to domestic growth picking up? 619 00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 13: So, American Tower is one of big three, the big 620 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:04,520 Speaker 13: three tower companies here in the US, American Tower in public. 621 00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:07,640 Speaker 11: I wonder who's I think. 622 00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:12,400 Speaker 7: A great business that it's. 623 00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:12,680 Speaker 5: A terrific business. 624 00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,600 Speaker 13: It's actually a real estate business, and they make their 625 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:19,280 Speaker 13: money on leasing that vertical real estate on the towers 626 00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:23,440 Speaker 13: to telecom companies that need to set up antennas to 627 00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:28,920 Speaker 13: give US wireless service. American Tower and SBA, two of 628 00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:32,320 Speaker 13: the three big three, are seeking a lot of growth 629 00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:36,280 Speaker 13: overseas now that the US is largely a built out market. 630 00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:39,480 Speaker 1: So I mean, I guess American Tower and Crown Castle 631 00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:42,080 Speaker 1: they've always had some or not always, but I mean 632 00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:43,840 Speaker 1: certainly over the last ten or fifteen years, they've always 633 00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:47,560 Speaker 1: had international growth. Do they go to developing markets like 634 00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:50,400 Speaker 1: in India, for example, or do they stay in the 635 00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:51,360 Speaker 1: more mature markets? 636 00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:54,040 Speaker 5: So Crown Castle does not. 637 00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:56,520 Speaker 13: They have said they're really going to stick with the 638 00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,040 Speaker 13: US and they're rolling out of business. 639 00:30:58,720 --> 00:30:59,920 Speaker 5: Called small cells. 640 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:03,320 Speaker 13: So these are think of many cell sites that you 641 00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:08,880 Speaker 13: can run through neighborhoods to provide fixed wireless broadband for example, 642 00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:13,640 Speaker 13: or higher bandwidth in transit hubs or stadiums. American Tower 643 00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:16,560 Speaker 13: is the one that has ventured overseas and their biggest 644 00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:20,760 Speaker 13: market is India, and they've lived some of the risks 645 00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:23,720 Speaker 13: that you get when you go into these emerging markets, 646 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:28,040 Speaker 13: which is political risk. They have got hit with an owner, 647 00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:31,160 Speaker 13: the carriers got hit with an owner as spectrum tax, 648 00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:34,840 Speaker 13: and suddenly they can't pay their tower leasing costs. 649 00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,440 Speaker 5: So it's been very tough on them in a way. 650 00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:40,240 Speaker 1: All right, thirty seconds, what happens to our good friend 651 00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:43,160 Speaker 1: at Dish, Charlie Charlie Ergan. 652 00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:47,560 Speaker 13: Wow, this one could go either way. Honestly, Dish is 653 00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:51,160 Speaker 13: living through a really tough capital crunch right now. So 654 00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:55,560 Speaker 13: his immediate hurdle and his sole focus is on raising 655 00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:58,800 Speaker 13: more money. I think if he can get it, they 656 00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:02,440 Speaker 13: can go for a run in wireless. I think they 657 00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:08,200 Speaker 13: can carve out a niche there. By US definition, they 658 00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:11,360 Speaker 13: reach seventy percent of the US population with their own 659 00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:14,960 Speaker 13: five G network. Now they really got to fill that out, 660 00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:18,040 Speaker 13: though that number is very deceiving and that's where he 661 00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:19,880 Speaker 13: needs the money. 662 00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,600 Speaker 1: I never thought I'd see Charlie back into a corner 663 00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:25,360 Speaker 1: like this. He needs so successful for so long, he 664 00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:29,320 Speaker 1: misread this spectrum play John Butler, Senior equity anals covering 665 00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:33,440 Speaker 1: all the telecom stuff for Bloomberg Intelligence, talking about the wireless, 666 00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:37,080 Speaker 1: the wireline, the towers, which is just an awesome, awesome 667 00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:39,600 Speaker 1: business American Tower, Crown Castle, SBA. 668 00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:42,800 Speaker 9: You're listening to the tape. Catch are live program Bloomberg 669 00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:46,520 Speaker 9: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 670 00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:49,800 Speaker 9: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 671 00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:52,640 Speaker 9: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 672 00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:57,040 Speaker 9: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 673 00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,160 Speaker 3: What's happening with the dollars? So the Bloomberg Dollar Spot 674 00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:07,080 Speaker 3: Index that's ticker symbol bbd x Y that's actually down 675 00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:10,360 Speaker 3: almost ten percent from its peak at the end of 676 00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:12,960 Speaker 3: last September. So obviously the dollar was on a tear 677 00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:16,280 Speaker 3: last year because of that correlation with the Fed aggressively 678 00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,479 Speaker 3: hiking interest rates, but we've seen it paired back on 679 00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:22,520 Speaker 3: those indications that perhaps the Fed is close to being 680 00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:24,000 Speaker 3: done here, So I want to get straight to our 681 00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,640 Speaker 3: next guest, who's going to break down and discuss with 682 00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:28,760 Speaker 3: us what's happening when it comes to the four X 683 00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:32,120 Speaker 3: space and the dollar. Jane Foley, Managing director and head 684 00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:37,480 Speaker 3: of ex FX Strategy at Rabobank, joining us here on Zoom. So, Jane, 685 00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:39,480 Speaker 3: thank you so much for joining us, and please tell 686 00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:41,200 Speaker 3: us your thoughts here when it comes to the four 687 00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:43,320 Speaker 3: x market and what you're seeing when it comes to 688 00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:45,120 Speaker 3: the dollar trading right now. 689 00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:48,240 Speaker 8: Well, with respect to the dollar, there's one word I 690 00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:50,640 Speaker 8: think that's really entered into the framework here, and that 691 00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:54,320 Speaker 8: is disinflation, so that the market is beginning to think, well, 692 00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:56,960 Speaker 8: you know, look at look at the CPI forcast for tomorrow. 693 00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:58,880 Speaker 8: That's obviously the key event of the week, and the 694 00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:02,040 Speaker 8: market expectation here is for a headline number of three 695 00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:04,400 Speaker 8: point one percent year on year, and that will be 696 00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:08,000 Speaker 8: down from four percent in the last round and significantly 697 00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:10,680 Speaker 8: below where we've had that peak. And not only that, 698 00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:13,480 Speaker 8: but there's been a variety of economic data just in 699 00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:16,319 Speaker 8: the last few days, which again feeds this impression that, 700 00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:19,640 Speaker 8: you know, are we finally seeing disinflation in the US. 701 00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:22,000 Speaker 8: Of course, we've had the New York Fed Survey House 702 00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:26,000 Speaker 8: inflation forecasts down to three point eight last month and 703 00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:28,399 Speaker 8: lowest is more than two years. And we've had, of course, 704 00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:33,840 Speaker 8: within that NFIB data which improved, but we have the 705 00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:38,560 Speaker 8: share of business increasing prices. That share has declined. This 706 00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:41,240 Speaker 8: is now twenty nine percent of businesses from thirty two percent. 707 00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:44,040 Speaker 8: So there's various different indicators here which has got the 708 00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:47,360 Speaker 8: market excited. As you say that, yeah, you know what, 709 00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:51,279 Speaker 8: they're going to hike interest rates in July. The Fed is, 710 00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:54,520 Speaker 8: but perhaps that's then done. Whereas if you look at 711 00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:58,759 Speaker 8: some other central banks, many of those G ten central banks, 712 00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:01,320 Speaker 8: well they've got some more easing to come. The UCB, 713 00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:03,799 Speaker 8: for instance, that the market still thinks, I think might 714 00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:07,000 Speaker 8: go in September as well as July. Canada for instance, 715 00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:10,560 Speaker 8: expected to go again, RBA could go again, Norway, Sweden, 716 00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:14,400 Speaker 8: and of course the UK. Perhaps now the market's expecting 717 00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:16,760 Speaker 8: that one to have to go higher for even longer 718 00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:18,480 Speaker 8: than most of the most of its peers. 719 00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:22,960 Speaker 1: So is it like, just take the UK for example, Jane, 720 00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:25,880 Speaker 1: is the expectation that inflation there is going to be 721 00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:27,920 Speaker 1: harder to fight than perhaps in the US. 722 00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,359 Speaker 8: Yes, absolutely. You know, for instance, we were talking about 723 00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:33,960 Speaker 8: that the market consensus for the CPI printing in the 724 00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:40,080 Speaker 8: US been three point one percent percent, but for the UK, disappointingly, 725 00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:43,000 Speaker 8: for the last couple of months, the UK CPI inflation 726 00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:46,000 Speaker 8: rates has been coming in higher than expected and it's 727 00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:49,359 Speaker 8: remained now eight point seven percent. So that's a lot 728 00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:52,080 Speaker 8: higher on almost any sort of metric than in the 729 00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:55,360 Speaker 8: US and also in the Eurozone. For instance, this morning 730 00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:57,400 Speaker 8: in the UK we had the release of the latest 731 00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:01,439 Speaker 8: labor Port report that the way component again not only 732 00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:03,280 Speaker 8: was it revised up last month, but it was stronger 733 00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:07,160 Speaker 8: than expected this month too. So these indications of second 734 00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:11,080 Speaker 8: order price effects still very much there, and a lot 735 00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:13,000 Speaker 8: of people in the fifties have left the labor market. 736 00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:15,560 Speaker 8: We've got Brexit, of course, that has a labor market effect. 737 00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:19,320 Speaker 8: And there's lots of interesting data with respect to housing. 738 00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:24,720 Speaker 8: So for instance, in the UK, unlike the US, people 739 00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:27,920 Speaker 8: tend to fix their mortgages for maybe two years or 740 00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:31,400 Speaker 8: five years. That's interesting because that means that you know, 741 00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:35,759 Speaker 8: people will be faced with higher interest rates if they're 742 00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:40,520 Speaker 8: package unwined sort of now. But perhaps even more interesting 743 00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:43,760 Speaker 8: than that is that because of the aging demographics because 744 00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:48,040 Speaker 8: of the baby boomers, so many more households own their 745 00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:51,759 Speaker 8: houses outright. These guys are probably net savers and they're 746 00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:55,880 Speaker 8: benefiting from the hiking interest rates, meaning that the impact 747 00:36:56,239 --> 00:37:00,560 Speaker 8: on those holding mortgages is less. So again the Bank 748 00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:04,200 Speaker 8: of England probably has to work harder to really cool demand. 749 00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:07,440 Speaker 3: So what's your call on how to trade the dollar 750 00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:10,400 Speaker 3: depending on how we see CPI shake out tomorrow. 751 00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:13,960 Speaker 8: Well, of course this is the short term trade. If 752 00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:18,520 Speaker 8: CPI really does feed this disinflation review, then the dollar 753 00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:20,319 Speaker 8: can go down and we've got your dollar, you know, 754 00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:23,480 Speaker 8: probably going high above one ten again and perhaps getting 755 00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:26,440 Speaker 8: a bit more comfortable at that level for now. But 756 00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:28,839 Speaker 8: of course there's also the longer term view, and that's 757 00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:31,719 Speaker 8: a lot more complicated because there is the risk that 758 00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:35,200 Speaker 8: the US economy will be slowing it could see procession. 759 00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:39,280 Speaker 8: Not only that, of course, but China is finding it's 760 00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:42,000 Speaker 8: recovery pretty difficult. So yes, we've had some better news 761 00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:45,160 Speaker 8: today with respect to potential stimulus, but it's still finding 762 00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:47,600 Speaker 8: it rough. In fact, most economies that are dominated and 763 00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:50,920 Speaker 8: manufacturing are finding the going pretty tough. So we've got 764 00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:54,560 Speaker 8: this situation where whereby we might have China slowing, the 765 00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:57,720 Speaker 8: U is slowing, We've got pretty you know much stagnatory 766 00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:01,960 Speaker 8: growth in the Eurozone. Now that sort of scenario isn't 767 00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:05,840 Speaker 8: great for moving into risky assets. That sort of environment 768 00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:09,000 Speaker 8: is probably one which could be dollars supportive. So whilst 769 00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,919 Speaker 8: we've got this short term dollar trade, maybe the dollar 770 00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:15,480 Speaker 8: weekening if that, if that CPI comes in softer, that 771 00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:17,160 Speaker 8: doesn't mean to say that the dollar is going to 772 00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:19,800 Speaker 8: be selling off in the three to six month horizon, 773 00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:22,959 Speaker 8: because a slower global economy will probably give the dollar 774 00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:24,640 Speaker 8: some support. Yeah, Jane. 775 00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:26,200 Speaker 1: One of the questions I always have when I get 776 00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:29,719 Speaker 1: smart currency people like you on is give me the 777 00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:33,120 Speaker 1: case for a bare case for the US dollar. 778 00:38:33,600 --> 00:38:34,839 Speaker 7: I can't come up with one. 779 00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:37,000 Speaker 1: Is there a bare case a long term bear case 780 00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:39,280 Speaker 1: for the US dollar going forward? 781 00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:42,560 Speaker 8: Well, you know, I think that's a very perceptive question 782 00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:46,640 Speaker 8: because generally speaking, if the dollar is going to really weaken, 783 00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:49,680 Speaker 8: you've got to have risk appetite, global risk appetite pretty strong. 784 00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:51,960 Speaker 8: So with a dollar to be really very much on 785 00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:54,520 Speaker 8: the back foot, it's because everybody and their dog is 786 00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:57,640 Speaker 8: piling into emerging markets and on high risk acids, and 787 00:38:57,960 --> 00:39:00,239 Speaker 8: you know that that will be away from the U S, 788 00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:02,680 Speaker 8: which is considered to be you know more more of 789 00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:05,360 Speaker 8: a safe haven. So that sort of scenario is not 790 00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:07,440 Speaker 8: on the cards. And that is why I say that 791 00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:09,640 Speaker 8: I don't think the dollar is going to be selling 792 00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:12,759 Speaker 8: off heavily over the three to six month horizon. If 793 00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:16,200 Speaker 8: we've got this risk of a softer global economy, you 794 00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:19,480 Speaker 8: really do need a really bullish case for global growth, 795 00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:22,200 Speaker 8: in a really bullish case for emerging markets for the 796 00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:25,319 Speaker 8: dollar to be really soft. And right now, you know, 797 00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:29,600 Speaker 8: many may emerging markets, you know, they're week because China's week. 798 00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:32,440 Speaker 8: You know a lot of them are selling materials, raw 799 00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:35,360 Speaker 8: materials into China. A lot of them, you know, finding 800 00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:39,080 Speaker 8: it tough because China isn't manufacturing, you know, processing those 801 00:39:39,160 --> 00:39:42,040 Speaker 8: raw materials. So right now, I don't think we do 802 00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:46,600 Speaker 8: have that really bullish appetite for risk appetite which means 803 00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:48,560 Speaker 8: that the dollar is going to find some support. 804 00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:51,160 Speaker 3: And Jane, to Paul's point, I was putting out a 805 00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:53,759 Speaker 3: story that crossed the terminal in recent days looking at 806 00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:56,920 Speaker 3: how hedgephones have actually swung to an overall beerish dollar 807 00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:59,720 Speaker 3: bed for the first time since March. And that's basically 808 00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:03,240 Speaker 3: tie to the wagers of the FED finally potentially approaching 809 00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:05,719 Speaker 3: the end of its rate hiking cycle. What do you 810 00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:08,960 Speaker 3: think that tells us when it comes to hedge fund positioning. 811 00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:11,440 Speaker 8: Well, you know that the hedge funds guys, you know, 812 00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:13,279 Speaker 8: they can be quick in and they can be quick out. 813 00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:15,640 Speaker 8: And I think certainly if we are going to see 814 00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:19,239 Speaker 8: this disinflationary view for the US, we could see you know, 815 00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:22,480 Speaker 8: the dollar weakening in the shorter term. Again, you know, 816 00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:24,200 Speaker 8: I think we would have ne're a dollar but getting 817 00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:26,239 Speaker 8: more comfortable, get in its feet under the table at 818 00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:28,360 Speaker 8: you know, one ten, and you're a dollar. If the 819 00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:30,560 Speaker 8: CPI number comes in at three point one where the 820 00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:32,640 Speaker 8: market consists, is it, or even if it comes in 821 00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:35,279 Speaker 8: you know, slightly lower, but that is you know, maybe 822 00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:38,239 Speaker 8: a one to three month few taking us up to September. 823 00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:42,080 Speaker 8: But once we get beyond September, assuming that's where we 824 00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:44,680 Speaker 8: definitely will have had its peak for not just the FED, 825 00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:47,640 Speaker 8: but also for the ECB, that's probably when we're going 826 00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:50,960 Speaker 8: to be feeling the cracks in global growth a lot more. 827 00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:53,400 Speaker 8: And that's I think when the dollar will begin to 828 00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:54,240 Speaker 8: find that support. 829 00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:58,280 Speaker 1: Uh Jane bout thirty seconds left what's the popular trade 830 00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:01,480 Speaker 1: with the kids these days in the currency market. 831 00:41:01,160 --> 00:41:04,080 Speaker 8: You know, I think right now it is probably euro dollar. 832 00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:07,080 Speaker 8: It is looking, it has been looking as if it 833 00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:09,759 Speaker 8: wanted to break higher. I think that USCPI data is 834 00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:12,399 Speaker 8: going to be the focus. A few people obviously get 835 00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:14,680 Speaker 8: in on the on the Norwegian code in the trade 836 00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:16,720 Speaker 8: today that they are going to be hiking more, Canada 837 00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:18,200 Speaker 8: is going to be hiking more, Sweden is going to 838 00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:20,439 Speaker 8: be high king more. But I think really it's it's 839 00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:23,320 Speaker 8: very much the focus is on euro dollar. 840 00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:26,640 Speaker 3: All right. Jane Foley, Managing director and head of ETHX 841 00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:30,040 Speaker 3: Strategy at Rabobank, who is talking to us all things 842 00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:33,120 Speaker 3: dollar four X, so great to get your insight on 843 00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:34,920 Speaker 3: all of this. Thank you so much for joining us. 844 00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:37,440 Speaker 3: But talking again, Paul, when we're looking at where the 845 00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:40,640 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Spot indexes for the dollar, I mean, down close 846 00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:42,759 Speaker 3: to about ten percent from that peak in September, so 847 00:41:42,800 --> 00:41:45,960 Speaker 3: obviously all eyes on what happens with not just CPI 848 00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:47,920 Speaker 3: but the Fed decision later this month. 849 00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,359 Speaker 7: As exactly, and that ten percent pullback again. 850 00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:52,919 Speaker 1: I still feel like I don't have a big long 851 00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:55,000 Speaker 1: term bear case for the dollar, right It kind of 852 00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:57,279 Speaker 1: feels like, oh, jeep dollars off me back running and 853 00:41:57,280 --> 00:41:58,239 Speaker 1: buy some dollars. 854 00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:00,400 Speaker 3: And seeing what happens with He cost me six or seven. 855 00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:02,520 Speaker 1: Pounds to get a pint in London these days, that's 856 00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:03,120 Speaker 1: a little high. 857 00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:07,040 Speaker 9: You're listening to the tape Canser Live program Bloomberg Markets 858 00:42:07,120 --> 00:42:10,480 Speaker 9: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune 859 00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:13,439 Speaker 9: in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 860 00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:16,359 Speaker 9: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 861 00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:22,480 Speaker 9: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 862 00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:25,520 Speaker 1: Right down to this next story, the PGA and live. 863 00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:29,879 Speaker 1: They are merging huge, huge news in the world of golf, 864 00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,520 Speaker 1: in the world of sport, quite frankly, and it really 865 00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:36,200 Speaker 1: was unexpected and really rocked the golf war, golf world, 866 00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:40,000 Speaker 1: and of course it got the a tension of some 867 00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:41,840 Speaker 1: members of Congress, and that's why they are down in 868 00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:45,560 Speaker 1: DC right now doing giving some testimony. Kaylee Liones, Bloomberg 869 00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:48,800 Speaker 1: Television host joints us here from Washington, DC. Katie, what 870 00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:51,400 Speaker 1: are we learning so far during this testimony by some 871 00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:53,600 Speaker 1: of these PGA officials in Washington. 872 00:42:54,360 --> 00:42:57,680 Speaker 14: Well, as you say, Paul they're PGA officials, yes, the 873 00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:01,040 Speaker 14: COO as well as a member of the board, mister Dunn. 874 00:43:01,040 --> 00:43:04,080 Speaker 14: We're testifying today, but they weren't originally who the chair 875 00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:08,000 Speaker 14: of this committee, subcommittee, Senator Blumenthal, the Democrat from Connecticut, 876 00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:09,640 Speaker 14: wanted to hear from. He wanted to hear from the 877 00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:12,759 Speaker 14: PGA Commissioner, Jay Monahan, who's currently out on medical leave, 878 00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:15,040 Speaker 14: and he wanted to hear from the chief of Live Golf, 879 00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:18,080 Speaker 14: as well as someone from the Saudi Investment Fund. None 880 00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:20,399 Speaker 14: of those people showed up. The other two said they 881 00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:24,400 Speaker 14: had scheduling conflicts, so that kind of limits the information 882 00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:26,719 Speaker 14: that the committee is able to talk about at the 883 00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:29,360 Speaker 14: hearing today or ask questions about. Though they did unveil 884 00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:32,440 Speaker 14: ahead as this hearing went underway, some of the facts 885 00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:35,520 Speaker 14: about how this detail this deal went together. Some of 886 00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:39,279 Speaker 14: those details WhatsApp messages for example, things we understand the 887 00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:41,480 Speaker 14: PGA and Live. We're talking about the idea that Live 888 00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:44,680 Speaker 14: would stop poaching players, Tiger Woods would maybe own a 889 00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:47,560 Speaker 14: Live team, people like Rory McIlroy would as well. There 890 00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:49,440 Speaker 14: would be media sharing rights. So starting to get to 891 00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:52,080 Speaker 14: some of the details on what this deal is. But 892 00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:54,960 Speaker 14: of course for the chair he is very concerned about 893 00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:57,880 Speaker 14: Sadi's involvement in this and the idea of sportswashing. 894 00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:01,640 Speaker 3: What are the main issues play that have raised red 895 00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:03,760 Speaker 3: flags about this deal going forward? 896 00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:08,200 Speaker 14: Well, sports watching is definitely a big one, being that 897 00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:11,240 Speaker 14: this is the Saudi investment fund we are talking about. 898 00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:14,759 Speaker 14: And the accusation on the part of Chair Blumenthal and 899 00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:17,000 Speaker 14: others has been that this is just another example of 900 00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:19,879 Speaker 14: Saudi Arabia trying to wipe its slate cleaner, improve its 901 00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:23,040 Speaker 14: image around the world, to kind of cast a side 902 00:44:23,080 --> 00:44:27,319 Speaker 14: concerns around human rights abuses. Jamal Kashogi of course one 903 00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:30,760 Speaker 14: example of that, And so that's the accusation that's sportswa 904 00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:32,560 Speaker 14: washing is at play here and that the Saudi government 905 00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:35,840 Speaker 14: shouldn't be playing such an integral have such an integral 906 00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:39,560 Speaker 14: influence on American culture and sports culture specifically. The others, 907 00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:43,840 Speaker 14: of course, are antitrust concerns. This subcommittee that was holding 908 00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:46,400 Speaker 14: this hearing today doesn't actually have the power to block 909 00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:49,040 Speaker 14: the deal, but I spoke with Senator Blumenthal on the 910 00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:51,600 Speaker 14: sidelines before he went in to the room, and he 911 00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:54,440 Speaker 14: said that what they can do is uncover facts, they 912 00:44:54,440 --> 00:44:58,640 Speaker 14: can make policy suggestions and whatever they are able to uncover, 913 00:44:59,000 --> 00:45:01,200 Speaker 14: they can give the depart of Justice, and the Department 914 00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:03,880 Speaker 14: of Justice can use in that antitrust inquiry, and of 915 00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:07,640 Speaker 14: course the DOJ on competition grounds could actually block the deal. 916 00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:08,880 Speaker 7: You know, Katie. 917 00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:10,640 Speaker 1: One of the things that I think frustrates a lot 918 00:45:10,640 --> 00:45:13,320 Speaker 1: of observers here of the game and of the business 919 00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:15,600 Speaker 1: of golf is we just don't know anything about this deal, 920 00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:17,920 Speaker 1: and nothing's really been released, and it's been you know, 921 00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:18,960 Speaker 1: a number of weeks. 922 00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:22,000 Speaker 7: That in and of itself is really a cause for concern. 923 00:45:22,040 --> 00:45:24,719 Speaker 1: But I guess one of the questions that I think 924 00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:26,560 Speaker 1: one of the messages that the PGA Tour is trying 925 00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:28,480 Speaker 1: to get across is, hey, even though we're going to 926 00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:32,120 Speaker 1: take billions of dollars from a solidy fund, we the 927 00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:35,200 Speaker 1: PGA Tour will be in charge. 928 00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:36,400 Speaker 11: Yeah. 929 00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:37,719 Speaker 7: I mean, are they sticking with that? 930 00:45:37,719 --> 00:45:39,680 Speaker 1: Because if I'm putting in a couple billion dollars, I 931 00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:40,640 Speaker 1: want some control here. 932 00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:44,680 Speaker 14: Yeah, they are sticking with that message. Also, the idea 933 00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:47,280 Speaker 14: that this is a matter of survival, that they needed 934 00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:49,320 Speaker 14: to do this in order for the tour to remain 935 00:45:50,040 --> 00:45:52,600 Speaker 14: what it is currently because they had so many ongoing 936 00:45:52,680 --> 00:45:55,759 Speaker 14: legal fights with Live and it had been so very contentious, 937 00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:58,320 Speaker 14: which yes, is why this deal took everyone by surprise, 938 00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:00,600 Speaker 14: but by its very nature would kind of ease that 939 00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:02,560 Speaker 14: on the part of the PGA tour. So that's the 940 00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:05,319 Speaker 14: message that they are sending. But as you allude to, Paul, 941 00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:07,440 Speaker 14: we really don't know so much of the details. That 942 00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:10,920 Speaker 14: is something that Senator Blumenthal was bemoaning today, how not 943 00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:14,279 Speaker 14: transparent it has been. We don't know all of the 944 00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:17,839 Speaker 14: numbers around this. But for the PGA, they really are 945 00:46:17,840 --> 00:46:20,520 Speaker 14: indicating that this was a matter of survival and preservation. 946 00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:22,880 Speaker 3: Kaylie, Do we have any sort of sense of a 947 00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:25,600 Speaker 3: timetable here when we think about this deal, But then 948 00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:27,759 Speaker 3: also when it comes to these hearings in how long 949 00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:29,359 Speaker 3: this could all take to play out. 950 00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:33,120 Speaker 14: It could be sometime longer. As I said, the representatives 951 00:46:33,160 --> 00:46:35,879 Speaker 14: from Live In the Saudi Investment Fund weren't at today's hearing, 952 00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:38,359 Speaker 14: and for that reason, the chair has said that he 953 00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:40,239 Speaker 14: plans to have more hearings in the future. He told 954 00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:42,880 Speaker 14: me he's in active talks with both of those parties 955 00:46:42,920 --> 00:46:45,920 Speaker 14: to try to get them before the subcommittee to testify. 956 00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:48,520 Speaker 14: So those hearings themselves could take a while, and of 957 00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:51,879 Speaker 14: course the Department of Justice inquiry could take some time 958 00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:54,799 Speaker 14: as well. It's very early stages here, and that is 959 00:46:54,840 --> 00:46:57,680 Speaker 14: actually why many Republican members of this subcommittee today were 960 00:46:57,719 --> 00:46:59,719 Speaker 14: pushing back on the idea that this hearing even should 961 00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:02,480 Speaker 14: have been elt at this point. The ranking member, Senator 962 00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:04,399 Speaker 14: Ron Johnson said he didn't think they should be having 963 00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:07,759 Speaker 14: this hearing. Others were pushing back during the hearing as 964 00:47:07,760 --> 00:47:09,879 Speaker 14: well on the idea that this is really not what 965 00:47:09,960 --> 00:47:13,400 Speaker 14: this subcommittee should be investigating at this point, raising issues 966 00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:16,200 Speaker 14: like China, for example, that should be they say, a 967 00:47:16,280 --> 00:47:18,040 Speaker 14: higher priority than this specifically. 968 00:47:18,440 --> 00:47:21,880 Speaker 1: All right, So, is there any kind of next steps 969 00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:26,799 Speaker 1: here for either regulatory scrutiny or even god forbid, getting 970 00:47:26,840 --> 00:47:29,640 Speaker 1: this deal done announced maybe with some details. Are are 971 00:47:29,719 --> 00:47:31,920 Speaker 1: we learning anything today about what could be next steps? 972 00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:32,960 Speaker 3: Well? 973 00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:35,840 Speaker 14: Bloomberg has reported that the Department of Justice is watching 974 00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:39,000 Speaker 14: this hearing very closely, and everything that the Senate Subcommittee 975 00:47:39,080 --> 00:47:43,560 Speaker 14: unveiled today, that information likely will feedback into that DOJ inquiry. 976 00:47:43,640 --> 00:47:45,959 Speaker 14: So we'll look for any next steps from the Justice 977 00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:48,440 Speaker 14: Department on the anti trust front, and then I'll just 978 00:47:48,480 --> 00:47:51,160 Speaker 14: be watching to see when Charman Bluementhal may announce the 979 00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:53,480 Speaker 14: next hearing, because again he said that this is really 980 00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:55,680 Speaker 14: just the first one. There could be many of these 981 00:47:56,040 --> 00:47:56,880 Speaker 14: to come in the future. 982 00:47:57,000 --> 00:47:58,640 Speaker 1: All Right, Kaylee, thank you so much for joining us. 983 00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:02,000 Speaker 1: Really appreciate getting your report from Washington, DC. Katie Lines 984 00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:05,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News talking about this LIVEPGA deal. We got some 985 00:48:05,640 --> 00:48:08,480 Speaker 1: folks in front of Congress trying to explain what's happening. 986 00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:11,880 Speaker 9: You're listening to the tape. Catch our live program Bloomberg 987 00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:15,520 Speaker 9: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 988 00:48:15,560 --> 00:48:18,799 Speaker 9: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 989 00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:21,640 Speaker 9: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 990 00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:27,680 Speaker 9: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 991 00:48:26,880 --> 00:48:29,800 Speaker 3: Jess Naton and Paul Suing here in the Bloomberg Interactive 992 00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:32,120 Speaker 3: Brokers Studio and Paul up next. I wanted to talk 993 00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:35,560 Speaker 3: what's happening with technology and especially when it comes to 994 00:48:35,719 --> 00:48:39,279 Speaker 3: tech hiring for some of these top recruiting firms. When 995 00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:42,200 Speaker 3: you think about big tech, and it obviously undergoing a 996 00:48:42,239 --> 00:48:44,719 Speaker 3: lot of cost cutting efforts over the past year, but 997 00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:46,680 Speaker 3: some of that has supported some of the stock prices 998 00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:48,360 Speaker 3: for some of these big companies. So I want to 999 00:48:48,360 --> 00:48:51,000 Speaker 3: get straight to our next guest, Martha Heller, CEO and 1000 00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:55,120 Speaker 3: founder of Heller Search Associates, who's going to discuss with 1001 00:48:55,239 --> 00:48:57,480 Speaker 3: us some of the open tech roles and the outlook 1002 00:48:57,520 --> 00:49:00,360 Speaker 3: for tech hiring, obviously on the heels of when we 1003 00:49:00,440 --> 00:49:04,880 Speaker 3: got that softer than expected jobs report last week. Paul. So, Martha, 1004 00:49:04,920 --> 00:49:07,080 Speaker 3: thank you so much for joining us. Tell us about 1005 00:49:07,080 --> 00:49:11,960 Speaker 3: Heller Search Associates, what you do and obviously how what 1006 00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:14,520 Speaker 3: you are exactly doing when it comes to helping recruit 1007 00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:17,319 Speaker 3: for these top level IT executive positions. 1008 00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:20,080 Speaker 6: Sure, thanks so much for having me so. 1009 00:49:20,120 --> 00:49:25,920 Speaker 15: At Heller Search, we recruit CTOs CIOs, chief security officer roles, 1010 00:49:25,960 --> 00:49:29,479 Speaker 15: head of software engineering, so technical roles. But not only 1011 00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:35,120 Speaker 15: in the tech sector. We were across every sector, healthcare, retail, industrial, manufacturing. 1012 00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:38,200 Speaker 15: So we pretty we have a very wide panoramic view 1013 00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:41,080 Speaker 15: of what's going on with tech hiring and what I 1014 00:49:41,160 --> 00:49:43,040 Speaker 15: see happening here. Yes, there was a bit of a 1015 00:49:43,120 --> 00:49:46,480 Speaker 15: lackbuster jobs report, but I think there is a bigger 1016 00:49:46,560 --> 00:49:50,200 Speaker 15: story here than uh, you know, supply chain and other 1017 00:49:50,239 --> 00:49:54,520 Speaker 15: economic headwinds. What's happening now with most companies in the 1018 00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:58,480 Speaker 15: world is that they were born in an industrial economy 1019 00:49:59,239 --> 00:50:03,120 Speaker 15: where they had legacy products and services, and now everything 1020 00:50:03,200 --> 00:50:07,040 Speaker 15: is moving into a software economy or a data economy. 1021 00:50:07,280 --> 00:50:11,479 Speaker 15: So you're finding, you know, food processing businesses suddenly needing 1022 00:50:11,600 --> 00:50:12,800 Speaker 15: data scientists. 1023 00:50:13,200 --> 00:50:14,760 Speaker 6: You're having retail. 1024 00:50:14,360 --> 00:50:18,919 Speaker 15: Businesses needing more digital software engineers. So we are very 1025 00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:21,480 Speaker 15: busy here at Heller Search, and I predict that over 1026 00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:24,680 Speaker 15: the next few months we're going to see an uptick 1027 00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:28,359 Speaker 15: in the jobs report, but not with traditional roles, with 1028 00:50:28,560 --> 00:50:32,719 Speaker 15: software roles, security roles, data engineering roles that are new 1029 00:50:32,960 --> 00:50:36,120 Speaker 15: to these companies, So they don't yet know what is 1030 00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:38,640 Speaker 15: the compensation model, where do they fit in the org, 1031 00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:41,960 Speaker 15: what is our recruiting strategy. So a lot of companies, 1032 00:50:42,000 --> 00:50:47,040 Speaker 15: as they're shifting to really becoming tech companies, whether they're healthcare, retail, automotive, 1033 00:50:47,120 --> 00:50:51,360 Speaker 15: you name it, they're shifting their workforce to being technologists. 1034 00:50:51,760 --> 00:50:55,879 Speaker 15: We think of technologists at Facebook, at Meta, at Twitter. Well, 1035 00:50:56,040 --> 00:51:01,600 Speaker 15: Walgreens is hiring technologists, Macy's is hiring technologists, but it's 1036 00:51:01,600 --> 00:51:04,920 Speaker 15: harder for them to get moving on that technology hiring 1037 00:51:05,000 --> 00:51:07,080 Speaker 15: bandwidth because these roles are new to them. 1038 00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:10,440 Speaker 1: Martha, I have a lot of technologists working for me 1039 00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:13,000 Speaker 1: for the last decade I've had they've had the upper 1040 00:51:13,040 --> 00:51:15,799 Speaker 1: hand on me. Now the most recent is working from 1041 00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:17,400 Speaker 1: home versus coming to the office. 1042 00:51:17,560 --> 00:51:20,120 Speaker 7: But now I see Google. 1043 00:51:19,840 --> 00:51:22,480 Speaker 1: Facebook, all these companies out in the valley laying people off. 1044 00:51:22,600 --> 00:51:26,640 Speaker 1: Do I now have the leverage over my tech workers 1045 00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:27,160 Speaker 1: or do they. 1046 00:51:27,080 --> 00:51:27,640 Speaker 7: Still have it? 1047 00:51:29,320 --> 00:51:33,440 Speaker 15: I hate to say it, but they still have it back, 1048 00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:36,480 Speaker 15: So you need them. That being said, their leverage is 1049 00:51:36,560 --> 00:51:40,440 Speaker 15: waning a bit. Those technologists being laid off from the 1050 00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:45,640 Speaker 15: Silicon Valley companies will be good technologists for you, right 1051 00:51:45,719 --> 00:51:49,399 Speaker 15: what they've learned there they can transfer transfer to you. 1052 00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:52,720 Speaker 15: But it's still a tight market. It's still a heady 1053 00:51:52,800 --> 00:51:56,960 Speaker 15: skill set. Finding somebody to do cloud computing, for example, 1054 00:51:56,960 --> 00:51:59,840 Speaker 15: it's a new skill set. So yes, those layoffs do 1055 00:52:00,080 --> 00:52:02,319 Speaker 15: salt in the market for you, but not so much 1056 00:52:02,360 --> 00:52:03,560 Speaker 15: that it becomes your market. 1057 00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:07,360 Speaker 3: Martha, Whenever you're speaking with employers, what are they telling 1058 00:52:07,400 --> 00:52:09,880 Speaker 3: you about their view on the economy in the labor 1059 00:52:09,880 --> 00:52:11,040 Speaker 3: market when they're trying to hire. 1060 00:52:11,120 --> 00:52:15,000 Speaker 15: Right now, you know a lot of my clients, and 1061 00:52:15,120 --> 00:52:18,000 Speaker 15: remember our clients are cross industry, are taking a wait 1062 00:52:18,080 --> 00:52:21,000 Speaker 15: and see approach. A lot of them have enough concerns 1063 00:52:21,040 --> 00:52:25,600 Speaker 15: about the economic headwinds that they are doing hiring freezes, 1064 00:52:25,680 --> 00:52:27,600 Speaker 15: not all of them, as I said, we're very busy, 1065 00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:30,799 Speaker 15: but the one area where they're taking an exception is 1066 00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:34,719 Speaker 15: hiring in data, digital and technology. But yes, we are 1067 00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:37,600 Speaker 15: seeing with many of our clients, particularly in the industrial 1068 00:52:37,640 --> 00:52:40,200 Speaker 15: era that have been hit hard by supply chain issues, 1069 00:52:40,440 --> 00:52:42,840 Speaker 15: we're seeing some slow down on hiring there. 1070 00:52:43,560 --> 00:52:48,200 Speaker 1: Martha, is our US educational system cranking out enough people 1071 00:52:48,400 --> 00:52:53,080 Speaker 1: with technology skills or do we need to recruit from 1072 00:52:53,080 --> 00:52:55,040 Speaker 1: outside the US? Where are we there in terms of 1073 00:52:55,040 --> 00:52:56,160 Speaker 1: the supply of these folks. 1074 00:52:57,000 --> 00:52:59,680 Speaker 15: Well, I mean, I think what I would say is no, 1075 00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:04,680 Speaker 15: our educational system is not building enough of these technologists 1076 00:53:04,719 --> 00:53:05,280 Speaker 15: for sure. 1077 00:53:05,760 --> 00:53:06,759 Speaker 6: But I also. 1078 00:53:06,680 --> 00:53:09,439 Speaker 15: Feel that just going and getting them, you know, out 1079 00:53:09,440 --> 00:53:12,840 Speaker 15: of the country is not necessarily the way it's reaching 1080 00:53:12,880 --> 00:53:16,399 Speaker 15: out to underrepresented markets in. 1081 00:53:16,320 --> 00:53:17,200 Speaker 6: The United States. 1082 00:53:17,239 --> 00:53:19,600 Speaker 15: You know, everybody, you know, most companies say we absolutely 1083 00:53:19,640 --> 00:53:22,279 Speaker 15: have to have somebody who has a degree in computer science. Well, 1084 00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:25,360 Speaker 15: there are a lot of ways to learn computer science 1085 00:53:25,360 --> 00:53:28,279 Speaker 15: without going necessarily and getting a degree in it. So 1086 00:53:28,440 --> 00:53:32,600 Speaker 15: starting to look at underrepresented groups, people who may not 1087 00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:35,279 Speaker 15: have exactly the education that we want. But taking the 1088 00:53:35,360 --> 00:53:38,760 Speaker 15: onus on us in our companies to create that education. 1089 00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:42,560 Speaker 15: That could be a very vital strategy for today's companies 1090 00:53:42,560 --> 00:53:45,160 Speaker 15: because there is a supply and demand problem. 1091 00:53:45,280 --> 00:53:48,120 Speaker 3: How easy for how hard does it define talent? Right now? 1092 00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:54,960 Speaker 15: If you have the right compensation, the role is exciting 1093 00:53:55,000 --> 00:53:58,160 Speaker 15: to a technologist. Technologists don't want to work on old technology. 1094 00:53:58,400 --> 00:54:01,480 Speaker 15: They want the new cool stuff. They want AI, they 1095 00:54:01,520 --> 00:54:05,319 Speaker 15: want cloud engineering. If you've got that opportunity, your compensation 1096 00:54:05,480 --> 00:54:08,360 Speaker 15: is lying and you will allow them to work remotely. 1097 00:54:09,040 --> 00:54:12,920 Speaker 15: You can hire anybody you want. If you insist on 1098 00:54:12,960 --> 00:54:15,279 Speaker 15: everybody coming into the office, you're trying to get a 1099 00:54:15,320 --> 00:54:18,319 Speaker 15: cheap date by not paying at market, and you want 1100 00:54:18,320 --> 00:54:21,520 Speaker 15: people to work on very legacy technologies, which is, you know, 1101 00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:23,840 Speaker 15: asking somebody to sort of come and work at your 1102 00:54:24,200 --> 00:54:25,640 Speaker 15: you know, videotape store. 1103 00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:28,359 Speaker 6: If you will, ye, then it's going to be hard. 1104 00:54:28,800 --> 00:54:32,399 Speaker 1: Can I say I'm a Silicon Valley company and oh, 1105 00:54:32,440 --> 00:54:33,880 Speaker 1: you want to work in Boise idol? 1106 00:54:34,000 --> 00:54:35,360 Speaker 7: Okay, Well that's salaries. 1107 00:54:36,160 --> 00:54:38,560 Speaker 1: Cost of living Boise, Idaho is twenty percent less than 1108 00:54:38,840 --> 00:54:40,399 Speaker 1: the Bay area, So I'm going to pay you twenty 1109 00:54:40,440 --> 00:54:42,080 Speaker 1: percent less than you would into Bay. 1110 00:54:42,440 --> 00:54:43,080 Speaker 7: Can I can I do that? 1111 00:54:43,160 --> 00:54:43,279 Speaker 8: Yes? 1112 00:54:43,960 --> 00:54:45,400 Speaker 6: Yes, you can do that? 1113 00:54:46,640 --> 00:54:50,240 Speaker 7: And is that happening in the industry. 1114 00:54:49,080 --> 00:54:50,160 Speaker 6: In some places it is. 1115 00:54:50,239 --> 00:54:52,440 Speaker 15: I mean, what companies are trying to figure out now 1116 00:54:53,040 --> 00:54:55,240 Speaker 15: is do we make people come back. 1117 00:54:55,400 --> 00:54:58,200 Speaker 6: We have decided we're going to bring everybody back. Oops. 1118 00:54:58,239 --> 00:55:02,040 Speaker 15: Half our workforce move to boise I from Silicon Valley 1119 00:55:02,160 --> 00:55:03,520 Speaker 15: during the last three years. 1120 00:55:04,160 --> 00:55:06,080 Speaker 6: So you know, if we are. 1121 00:55:06,040 --> 00:55:08,520 Speaker 15: Going to leave them where they are paying them a 1122 00:55:08,560 --> 00:55:11,319 Speaker 15: compensation that allows them to live a certain lifestyle which 1123 00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:13,960 Speaker 15: is different from Silicon Valley. A lot of companies are 1124 00:55:14,080 --> 00:55:16,360 Speaker 15: experimenting with that. Where it all shakes out in a 1125 00:55:16,360 --> 00:55:17,680 Speaker 15: couple of years, we'll find. 1126 00:55:17,480 --> 00:55:18,000 Speaker 7: Out, all right. 1127 00:55:18,040 --> 00:55:19,920 Speaker 1: Martha, thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate 1128 00:55:19,960 --> 00:55:23,320 Speaker 1: getting your thoughts there. Really interesting discussion there about the 1129 00:55:23,640 --> 00:55:27,880 Speaker 1: labor market, particularly in the technology space. Martha Heller, CEO 1130 00:55:28,000 --> 00:55:32,239 Speaker 1: of Heller Search Associates. So it's tough still there. I 1131 00:55:32,239 --> 00:55:34,040 Speaker 1: think that's still it just feels, you know, we have 1132 00:55:34,040 --> 00:55:34,440 Speaker 1: so many. 1133 00:55:34,320 --> 00:55:36,600 Speaker 7: Technologies engineers here at Bloomberg. 1134 00:55:36,200 --> 00:55:38,200 Speaker 3: Still having the upper hand there. That was a good question. 1135 00:55:38,360 --> 00:55:41,319 Speaker 7: Yeah, I don't know. I think I think the technologists 1136 00:55:41,320 --> 00:55:42,160 Speaker 7: still have the upper hand. 1137 00:55:42,239 --> 00:55:44,799 Speaker 3: Yeah. 1138 00:55:44,920 --> 00:55:48,040 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can 1139 00:55:48,040 --> 00:55:51,840 Speaker 2: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever 1140 00:55:51,920 --> 00:55:55,640 Speaker 2: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter 1141 00:55:55,840 --> 00:55:57,920 Speaker 2: at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three. 1142 00:55:58,200 --> 00:56:00,680 Speaker 7: And I'm Fal Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at peace T Sweeney. 1143 00:56:00,719 --> 00:56:03,360 Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at 1144 00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:04,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio