WEBVTT - JL Partners Polls Director Scarlett Maguire

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<v Speaker 1>The US presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>was pretty sharp. Elbowed ninety minutes of television. Harris put

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<v Speaker 1>Trump on the defensive though on abortion rights, foreign policy,

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<v Speaker 1>and the January sixth insurrection, but they also sparred on

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<v Speaker 1>the economy and on immigration. Joining us now to discuss

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<v Speaker 1>is Scarlett maguire, who is the polls director at Jail

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<v Speaker 1>Partners and focused on the US scarlet good morning and

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<v Speaker 1>thank you for being with us? Does this debate, to

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<v Speaker 1>your mind leave the Democrats in a better position polling wise?

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<v Speaker 1>How did Harris come across? See she is in some

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<v Speaker 1>ways that the lesser known debter.

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<v Speaker 2>Perhaps I think we'll have to wait a little bit

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<v Speaker 2>to see how this really embeds itself in the polls.

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<v Speaker 2>But my instinct having watched the debate is that Harris

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<v Speaker 2>will be left in a slightly stronger position than Trump

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<v Speaker 2>off the back of it in what is a very

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<v Speaker 2>close race. I think, even though American voters are very

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<v Speaker 2>keen to see her set out a policy platform which

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<v Speaker 2>we did not get last night, I think the way

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<v Speaker 2>in which she handled herself and which she was able

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<v Speaker 2>to fraud and provoke Trump into not sticking to message

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<v Speaker 2>meant that she edged a win last night, and I

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<v Speaker 2>think will be left in a better standing with the

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<v Speaker 2>American public as a result.

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<v Speaker 3>When it comes to the hot button issues though for voters,

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<v Speaker 3>did the candidates manage to distinguish themselves in terms of

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<v Speaker 3>how they position themselves on things like abortion rights, which

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<v Speaker 3>we know is a key issue that the Kamala Harris

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<v Speaker 3>campaign are keen to distinguish themselves on.

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<v Speaker 2>I think, yes, the abortion rights. The Democrats want to

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<v Speaker 2>put abortion firmly on the ballot in November. In some

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<v Speaker 2>states it literally will be, but in terms of the

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<v Speaker 2>presidential race, they want to make sure that is front

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<v Speaker 2>of voters minds as they are confident that this is

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<v Speaker 2>a clear win for them. I think Harris did win

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<v Speaker 2>that issue last night, as it were, but again that's

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<v Speaker 2>not a surprise. I thought what was more striking was

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<v Speaker 2>that I didn't feel that Donald Trump was able to

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<v Speaker 2>land clear blows on the issues that we know are

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<v Speaker 2>the biggest priorities for the American public, which are the

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<v Speaker 2>border and the economy, and these are both issues that Trump,

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<v Speaker 2>at least up until last night, had leads on Harris

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<v Speaker 2>on big leads over Biden, and still leads on Harris

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<v Speaker 2>on the economy and the border, and he really leaned

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<v Speaker 2>last night to deliver a very very clear, triumphant win

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<v Speaker 2>on those issues, and I think he failed to do that.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, that's interesting. I mean on the economy, though there

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<v Speaker 1>was much talk around inflation, Trump saying that there had

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<v Speaker 1>been no inflation during his administration, and that's not quite true,

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<v Speaker 1>that there was low inflation during his administration. They also

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<v Speaker 1>talk quite a bit on tax policy, on tariff policy,

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<v Speaker 1>and so you don't feel that Trump managed to extract

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<v Speaker 1>wins on those core topics.

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<v Speaker 2>I think what Donald Trump needed to do was to

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<v Speaker 2>pin Kamala Harris down to Biden's record on the economy

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<v Speaker 2>and to specifically on inflation, by which I mean cost

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<v Speaker 2>of living, because that is how voters in America anyway,

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<v Speaker 2>and I think voters here to think about the think

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<v Speaker 2>about the economy and inflation specifically. They do not actually

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<v Speaker 2>watch the inflation figure and if it's coming down, say okay,

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<v Speaker 2>it's fine, I approve of this. What they actually noticed

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<v Speaker 2>is what's happening to their own household finances and whether

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<v Speaker 2>they still feel under pressure, and crucially, whether they felt

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<v Speaker 2>under more pressure than they were four years ago. And

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<v Speaker 2>what Trump I think failed to do was very to

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<v Speaker 2>tie Harris to what most American voters see to be

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<v Speaker 2>a failed record on the economy for the ticket that

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<v Speaker 2>she was part of for the last administration, the administration

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<v Speaker 2>that's still going now. I think tariffs, it was an

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<v Speaker 2>interesting conversation. It's a very interesting debate, different debate in

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<v Speaker 2>America than it is in the UK on the conversation

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<v Speaker 2>of tariff's but it's not as important as that central

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<v Speaker 2>question of inflation, which should be a very big weakness

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<v Speaker 2>of Kamala Harris. And again I think Trump was unable

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<v Speaker 2>to exploit that.

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<v Speaker 3>Did of course, we know that the small number of

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<v Speaker 3>swing states is where this election is going to be decided.

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<v Speaker 3>Did you have the impression that this debate was focused

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<v Speaker 3>at targeting those voters in those states on issues that

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<v Speaker 3>are particularly important in places like Pennsylvania.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so Pennsylvania is the one everyone's really really watching.

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<v Speaker 2>It's obviously other states as well, So the sort of

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<v Speaker 2>seven to look Ouva, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona,

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<v Speaker 2>and Georgia. I think though it's not so much you

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<v Speaker 2>do see actually occasionally lyned so in Kamala Harris's CNN interview,

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<v Speaker 2>for example, that there seemed to be a sense that

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<v Speaker 2>when she was really talking about those reductions the diabetes payments,

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<v Speaker 2>for example, that she might be targeting a specific amount

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<v Speaker 2>of diabetes users in one of those states. However, last night,

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think that was the case so much, actually,

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<v Speaker 2>because actually what those seven swing states have in common

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<v Speaker 2>with the rest of the America again is this concern

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<v Speaker 2>about economy and the border. There are women's rights and

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<v Speaker 2>abortion issues there as well, but those two are the

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<v Speaker 2>dominant ones, so it's not so much of their states

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<v Speaker 2>specific although there is evidence that swing voters in those

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<v Speaker 2>swing states do feel under more economic pressure than other voters,

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<v Speaker 2>so it might be that they care even more about

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<v Speaker 2>the economy. But generally speaking, those concerns actually fly across

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<v Speaker 2>the board, and I didn't get a particular sense last

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<v Speaker 2>night that they were squarely focusing on, say, fifty thousand

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<v Speaker 2>voters in Pennsylvania.

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<v Speaker 1>The US election, of course, usually important globally in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of the messages getting out there. I mean, just looking

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<v Speaker 1>at the newspaper headlines, for example, Politico Harris gets under

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's skin over and over the FT's headline Harris needles

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<v Speaker 1>Trump in firey presidential debate in the Telegraph in the

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<v Speaker 1>UK has a different story, Donald Trump attacks Kamala Harris

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<v Speaker 1>over policy U turns in debate. Those are the newspaper takes.

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<v Speaker 1>But actually it's social media and memes that perhaps are

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<v Speaker 1>going to be even more important in this election. We've

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<v Speaker 1>certainly seen it in terms of fundraising that it's the

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<v Speaker 1>social media push. As a polster, what is your impression

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<v Speaker 1>of that social media drive and how the debate is

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<v Speaker 1>going to be chopped up and sliced and pushed out

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<v Speaker 1>there on social media.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, I think it's a really good point

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<v Speaker 2>about the sort of decline in how much what the

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<v Speaker 2>press says in in this election will matter. I think

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<v Speaker 2>in America it's actually even more. That's even more the case,

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<v Speaker 2>but also has been for a while because their media

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<v Speaker 2>system is pretty much entirely bifurcated along along political line.

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<v Speaker 2>So you'll get sort of Republican television stations and newspapers

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<v Speaker 2>and then the Democrat equivalent, and actually most people, even

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<v Speaker 2>sort of ordinary people or swing voters, will get their

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<v Speaker 2>news from either one side or the other. So actually,

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<v Speaker 2>the fact that newspapers or television stations say that would

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<v Speaker 2>always endorse Trumps, be writing positive things about him after

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<v Speaker 2>a debate like this or vice versa, doesn't actually change

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<v Speaker 2>things that much, and that's been the case in America

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<v Speaker 2>for a while. But on the specific question of social

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<v Speaker 2>media clips, yeah, I mean we've seen the impact of

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<v Speaker 2>something going viral and what impact that can have. I

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<v Speaker 2>would always sound a little caution though, because I think

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<v Speaker 2>when we are very online and very engaged online and

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<v Speaker 2>very over engaged, I would say politically, with us having

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<v Speaker 2>this conversation here and probably people listening to the radio station,

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<v Speaker 2>I think we can forget that actually a lot of voters,

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<v Speaker 2>and again the voters that will decide this election, are

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<v Speaker 2>not They are not overly politically engaged, and actually a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of them don't even tend to be that online.

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<v Speaker 2>And so I think we've learned some lessons before, say

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<v Speaker 2>even the twenty sixteen election or Brexit, about overinterpreting what

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<v Speaker 2>seems to be very clear online when it comes to

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<v Speaker 2>an election result with the general public,