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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest Betting Podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sportsman.

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Speaker 2: Okay, fliball, what's up the general nation? Welcome to the

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Speaker 2: Action Network podcast. This is the baseball betting preview I'm

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Speaker 2: stuck in.

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Speaker 3: Joining me today are none other than Sean Sarrillo and

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Speaker 3: Colin Wilson. What's going on, gentlemen? Excited to talk to

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Speaker 3: some United States baseball betting.

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Speaker 4: I have to differ to shown on that because I've

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Speaker 4: had my head up golf while he has been sweating

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Speaker 4: five am.

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Speaker 3: He's got the Japanese League and ready to get to

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Speaker 3: Bulton's being blown over in the United States.

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Speaker 5: I'll take well in leads with guys who I actually

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Speaker 5: have heard of before this year, as opposed to those

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Speaker 5: five am sweats where I have a CPBO bullpen leading

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Speaker 5: away a seven run of the lead in the eighth inning.

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Speaker 5: There's a few things as excruciating as that to wake

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Speaker 5: up to you in the morning.

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Speaker 3: By the way, you've been like the hardest working man.

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Speaker 3: I mean, also's been no quarantine for you as far

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Speaker 3: as work is concerned. All the sports that you do,

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Speaker 3: you do a great job with you. You have see

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Speaker 3: horse racing, all these different baseball leagues, so you've been

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Speaker 3: busy as hell. Now you're gonna have MLB coming back.

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Speaker 3: Are you going to continue with like maybe just plugging

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Speaker 3: in your model and see if there's a big edge,

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Speaker 3: or are you just going to throw it away and

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Speaker 3: focus solely on MLB. It's a lot of annual work

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Speaker 3: doing these leagues.

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Speaker 5: I'll probably try to keep putting projections out there, especially

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Speaker 5: as we get closer to the playoffs, but we'll see if.

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Speaker 3: I have time to keep up with it. We're going

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Speaker 3: to get into the rule changes overall in baseball, Corona's impact.

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Speaker 3: We're going to talk about futures value, player prop value,

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Speaker 3: get into a little bit of what we expect from

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Speaker 3: a game perspective. So early on, are we looking for overs?

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Speaker 3: You know, one of the big conversations out there. Who's

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Speaker 3: gonna have the advantage early on with this reduced spring training?

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Speaker 3: Is it hitters or pictures. We'll get into all that

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Speaker 3: before we do. Colin, you're in you're in Arizona today.

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Speaker 3: You're you're taking the Clemson route or the SEC route.

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Speaker 3: You're trying to get Corona before.

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Speaker 4: The fall, flew down to Arizona to visit some family,

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Speaker 4: and little did I know, this is the hottest spot

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Speaker 4: in America for COVID. And I believe as we are

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Speaker 4: recording this, they are shutting the state down again.

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Speaker 3: And maybe it's a silver lining and all of this

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Speaker 3: with all these states shutting back downs, this is happening now, right,

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Speaker 3: and it's not happening in September, And maybe people are like,

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Speaker 3: you know, it's a wake up call, like where your masks?

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Speaker 3: Because the fuck wear your masks? Like if you go

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Speaker 3: out where your masks, even if you it ends up

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Speaker 3: being fake, if the whole virus is a stake and

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Speaker 3: it's a hoax, wearing a mask won't hurt anybody, Right,

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Speaker 3: It's like that's a no risk thing to do. Any

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Speaker 3: Any thoughts roll and how are you? How was your weekend?

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Speaker 3: How you hanging in there?

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Speaker 5: Looking at all these bets that we're about to talk

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Speaker 5: about that I haven't been able to fire on yet

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Speaker 5: because I'm in New York and haven't been able to

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Speaker 5: get across the river to Jersey in a while. So

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Speaker 5: I'm planning a little car trip across tomorrow morning. We'll

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Speaker 5: see if I get back into the state because it

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Speaker 5: sounds like both states are going to not go ahead

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Speaker 5: with letting people into restaurants for the foreseeable future. I've

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Speaker 5: been as careful as possible. You know, some people in

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Speaker 5: my life are higher risk on immunosuppressants that I'm trying

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Speaker 5: to protect.

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Speaker 3: But it's just been a weird time.

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Speaker 5: But it'd be nice to put in some bets in

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Speaker 5: various accounts across Jersey tomorrow.

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Speaker 3: So there's what people you have to worry about. My

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Speaker 3: mom and dad are sick and older. I can't go

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Speaker 3: see them, and that's the unfortunate part about all this,

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Speaker 3: But it's health and safety first. My weekend, by the way,

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Speaker 3: was I figured out I confirmed last week and I

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Speaker 3: head a golf future. Turns out you can't do that

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Speaker 3: every weekend, so I do have to go back to

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Speaker 3: capping sports because it's not that easy. So I won't

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Speaker 3: be able to survive on golf outrights for the rest

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Speaker 3: of my life. But it was a nice thought for

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Speaker 3: a week, all right. So before we get into there,

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Speaker 3: I did want to just say podcast now right we're

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Speaker 3: doing this Baseball episode comes out in July. First, you know,

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Speaker 3: tell your friends, tell your enemies. Tell whatever you're talking to,

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Speaker 3: listen to it. On fourth of July. I know there's

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Speaker 3: no MLB, there's no Wimbledon this week either, but you

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Speaker 3: can listen to podcast talks in baseball and ours is

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Speaker 3: really gonna get kicked into high gear soon and then

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Speaker 3: throughout the rest of the summer and then throughout the fall,

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Speaker 3: and hopefully we get all of sports and everything can

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Speaker 3: go on safely. We're gonna have the PGA Tour betting

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Speaker 3: previews all summer long. Starting the week of July thirteenth,

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Speaker 3: we'll have our highly anticipated NFL Fantasy preview episodes with

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Speaker 3: Matthew Freeedman, Chris Raybound, and Seawan Corner. Plus Colin and

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Speaker 3: I will start our college football previews, and Chris Raybond

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Speaker 3: and myself will start our NFL previews for the AFC

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Speaker 3: and NFC. It's gonna be great. We're gonna get really

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Speaker 3: busy on almost podcasts almost every day, So tell your

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Speaker 3: friends and get used to tuning in every day for

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Speaker 3: some betting talk as we approach the fall. So let's

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Speaker 3: get right into it here with some just overall general thoughts.

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Speaker 3: So I'll start with U Zerrell. You know we got this.

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Speaker 3: We didn't know if eve was going to happen right

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Speaker 3: the last time we were around, By the way, we

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Speaker 3: were catching at NAT's future in miraculous fashion. I watched

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Speaker 3: the end of that game the other night when it

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Speaker 3: was on, and then Astroals got bailed out. Here. I mean,

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Speaker 3: they got really lucky. You have COVID, We have a

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Speaker 3: lot of social movements. They didn't win the World Series, right,

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Speaker 3: the pushback would have been a lot worse if they

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Speaker 3: just won the World Series. All that stuff is kind

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Speaker 3: of at the back burunner. It'll come back up again.

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Speaker 3: But here we are. They said they're gonna go over

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Speaker 3: the season. They finally came to an agreement, and they're

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Speaker 3: arguing over sixty or fifty four games. Here we are

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Speaker 3: what we were first initial thoughts like, what did you

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Speaker 3: think about how it's going to play out for either

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Speaker 3: an overall just baseball perspective or betting perspective, and then

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Speaker 3: how's that shifted over time? Where do you stand now?

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Speaker 3: Just high level?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, the Ashos really benefited. I no fans in the

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Speaker 5: stands that boot them every time they come out. Listen,

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Speaker 5: the teams that I liked before we went into kind

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Speaker 5: of a delay in a shortened schedule. I've only sort

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Speaker 5: of been more ingrained in my beliefs that they're good value.

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Speaker 5: At this point, we'll get into it, but the Reds,

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Speaker 5: the White Sox, and the A's primarily before the season,

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Speaker 5: and all of those teams have shortened dramatically in my odds.

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Speaker 3: Compared to where they were prior to the year in

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Speaker 3: the one hundred and sixty two game schedules.

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Speaker 5: So I don't necessarily think that I've pivoted in a

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Speaker 5: different direction from where I was prior to the year,

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Speaker 5: just think that there's probably a few more teams that

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Speaker 5: now offer value. There's teams like the Indians, the Rays,

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Speaker 5: the Padres, who I had sort of pushed to the

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Speaker 5: side before the season. It was all over the Rays

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Speaker 5: last year, But now I'm starting to take a more

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Speaker 5: serious look at those teams, not only with regards to

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Speaker 5: their World Series.

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Speaker 3: Odds, but also potentially some divisional odds.

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Speaker 5: Other than that, I think it's just a very good

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Speaker 5: and unique betting opportunity to look at some.

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Speaker 3: Long shots in the prop market. You can get into

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Speaker 3: a lot of those.

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Speaker 5: Later, but I've been scouring through like seven or ten

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Speaker 5: books today and I'm excited to talk about a lot

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Speaker 5: of these with touch of value bets we got going

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Speaker 5: on the echo.

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Speaker 4: What Shawn had to say Fangrabs put out the percentage

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Speaker 4: of your championship change and your playoff change of.

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Speaker 3: White Sox at the very top, you know, eighteen.

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Speaker 4: Percent more positive chance for them to make the playoffs

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Speaker 4: two percent two point two percent change in their championship odds.

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Speaker 3: Comes down to the sixty game schedule.

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Speaker 4: And you look at a team like the New York Yankees,

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Speaker 4: like it was just not good for them to come

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Speaker 4: down to a sixty game schedule if they have any

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Speaker 4: kind of you know, they're not able to get off

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Speaker 4: from the mark from the start. You know that that's

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Speaker 4: really going to hurt their chances to win. But the

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Speaker 4: teams that were heavily favored, you know, took the biggest

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Speaker 4: chances in their playoff chances, the teams that Sean and

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Speaker 4: I podcasted about months ago, whether.

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Speaker 3: It was the Reds or the White Sox. I think

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Speaker 3: we still have a little bit of belief in that

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Speaker 3: we'll get into that.

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Speaker 4: But from an overall perspective, you're not gonna hear me

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Speaker 4: saying this podcast once that I'm going to take an

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Speaker 4: over on any team.

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Speaker 3: There's just so much fluidity with everything that's going on.

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Speaker 4: Ryan Zimmerman just comes out and flat out says, I'm

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Speaker 4: staying at home.

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Speaker 3: I got family. There's bigger stuff going on. I'm not

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Speaker 3: going to play the twenty twenty season. He's not going

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Speaker 3: to be all you want to do this? So what

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Speaker 3: does that mean to me?

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Speaker 4: Some of these pitchers that should be on these starting staffs,

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Speaker 4: they're not going to be playing this year, which means

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Speaker 4: people that shouldn't be at this show are going to

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Speaker 4: be pitching in this five man rotation. That's going to

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Speaker 4: lead me to take a lot of overs on individual games.

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Speaker 4: I don't see how I can take an over on

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Speaker 4: a team total, but I will definitely like hop in

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Speaker 4: on some unders as we get to go through here,

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Speaker 4: because there's going to be a lot of Ryan Zerraman's.

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Speaker 4: These teams report on July first, and then they're supposed

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Speaker 4: to start playing games on July twenty third. I mean

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Speaker 4: spring training is six weeks, so I'm not I mean,

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Speaker 4: you can be working out in your garage all you

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Speaker 4: want of you know, who's the picture I saw throw

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Speaker 4: is the ball and the Dodgers at Joe Kelly through window. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: I mean it takes six weeks to get these arms going,

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Speaker 4: and if you're not going, you're gonna get rocked, and

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Speaker 4: so I expect a lot of overs. But as from

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Speaker 4: a team win total perspective, there's no way I'm taking

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Speaker 4: it over in this situation.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: Even in the KBO, the first couple of weeks, the

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Speaker 5: pitchers weren't fully stretched out. They didn't have a full spring. Well,

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Speaker 5: they started and stopped their spring training and then came back.

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Speaker 5: But the run totals have actually kind of tightened after

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Speaker 5: a few weeks in the KBO, So it was pretty

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Speaker 5: evident even though the environment changed relative to what it's become,

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Speaker 5: I think it was a little bit higher scoring to

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Speaker 5: begin with. I would expect a similar scenario to play

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Speaker 5: out with MLB games. And then on top of that,

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Speaker 5: you have to consider the fact that we're starting these

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Speaker 5: games in live. This is not the start of a

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Speaker 5: season in April where you have a little bit lower

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Speaker 5: run scoring. This is this is the summer months that

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Speaker 5: we're jumping right into, so you have to account for

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Speaker 5: that too. This is not Opening Day happening in April.

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Speaker 4: In this world where the Rockies or the Mariners start

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Speaker 4: fifteen and five, they're in playoff contention and they're.

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Speaker 3: Looking to make moves. I mean, that's a real world

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Speaker 3: we're about to live in. That's an interesting point too.

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Speaker 3: You make that, like which gms would are more incentivized

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Speaker 3: to maybe go for it this year where some might

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Speaker 3: just wait back. Just for those that don't know, maybe

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Speaker 3: not everyone is. It's a sixty game season, as he said,

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Speaker 3: starts late July. The playoffs are normal, so there's talk

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Speaker 3: about expanded plus, but there's gonna be a universal DH

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Speaker 3: Helps teams. I think, like the Reds will get to that.

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Speaker 3: They're gonna start with a man on second in extra innings,

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Speaker 3: so you won't see these games going. You know, these

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Speaker 3: eighteen nineteen twenty inning marathons, which can really beat up

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Speaker 3: a bullpen. You know of leib refs to come in

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Speaker 3: and face at least three batters and then the biggest change.

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Speaker 3: And they're going to try and play in every team's

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Speaker 3: home stadium. But it's subject to move, right, so if

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Speaker 3: there's a big hot spot, they might say, you know,

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Speaker 3: you're gonna play somewhere else, which could potentially hurt a

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Speaker 3: team like the Rockies, you know who if a big

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Speaker 3: home their team is built to play there and they

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Speaker 3: have a big home field edge. But everyone is going

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Speaker 3: to play, you know, they NL East is going to

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Speaker 3: play you know, forty games in their division and then

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Speaker 3: twenty games versus the AL East Central play Central and

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Speaker 3: those are the only teams that you play throughout the season.

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Speaker 3: So that's with the format looks like I can say.

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Speaker 3: When this first came out, my first thought was this,

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Speaker 3: you mentioned the Fangrass. They put out something that basically said, look,

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Speaker 3: if you look at over over most sixty game sample sizes,

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Speaker 3: you know there's gonna be there's a lot of variance

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Speaker 3: in baseball, right and this is a sixty game season.

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Speaker 3: It's a one hundred games fewer than we're used to.

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Speaker 3: You're gonna have pretty much about two random teams that

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Speaker 3: would get into the playoffs that normally wouldn't. On the

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Speaker 3: flip side, this is a sixty game sprint. So the

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Speaker 3: elite teams they can kind of try harder. And it

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Speaker 3: might sound stupid, but they can push their their more

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Speaker 3: elite starters, they can push their elite bullpen ORMs. They

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Speaker 3: don't have to worry about saving them down the line.

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Speaker 3: You don't have to worry about giving guys days off

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Speaker 3: things of that nature. So that's kind of the one

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Speaker 3: dynamic that I was thinking about and where I think

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Speaker 3: I was most incorrect was about depth. So I said,

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Speaker 3: at first, I want these teams that don't have a

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Speaker 3: lot of pitching depth. I think that there's value since

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Speaker 3: there's only you know, sixty games. So a team like

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Speaker 3: their Rockies, you know, I can just get Marquez Gray

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Speaker 3: and a Freeland can remember how to pitch. I have

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Speaker 3: three stars, but look, you still have to go a four,

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Speaker 3: you know, down the stretch late this year, maybe can

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Speaker 3: go to three man rotation, but you still have to

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Speaker 3: have four or five starters when you can have a

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Speaker 3: pen day or two for most of the year. So

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Speaker 3: a team like the Rockies, I'm out on and with COVID,

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Speaker 3: with all of these questions, I think pitching depth is

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Speaker 3: going to be really important to have. So I've came

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Speaker 3: around there, and then my last thought overall was I

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Speaker 3: think this the one team that benefited the most from

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Speaker 3: all this was the Yankees. Playing in just East is

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Speaker 3: not easy, but they got healthy and they have a

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Speaker 3: great pen that they can utilize. And on the flip side,

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Speaker 3: I think the Rays were the team that was hurt

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Speaker 3: the most. Right that the Yankees they're kind of a

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Speaker 3: grinding team, right they want to grind for one hundred

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Speaker 3: and sixty two. The Yankees are now healthy, they can't

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Speaker 3: jump out, you know, and get a lead on the

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Speaker 3: Yankees in that division. So I think the Rays were

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Speaker 3: hurt overall. So on that, you know, kind of continuing

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Speaker 3: that training of thought, Drill, I'll go to you first,

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Speaker 3: where are you overall futures value from a World Series

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Speaker 3: or you know, if you want to go division or Pennant,

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Speaker 3: where are you targeting? I know you mentioned a couple teams.

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Speaker 3: What are the numbers you got, where would you go

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Speaker 3: down to and what are your thoughts there? I fully

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Speaker 3: agree with your sentiment on the race.

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Speaker 5: I mean from a number standpoint, they shot up just

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Speaker 5: because of the shorter season and the smaller sample. But

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Speaker 5: the Yankees were so consistent last year. They sustained so

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Speaker 5: many injuries throughout the stretch last year and still held on.

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Speaker 5: They were really banged up coming into the year. I

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Speaker 5: think the Rays would have ground them down over the

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Speaker 5: course of a long season, but in sixty games, I

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Speaker 5: think they will lose almost that whole edge. So the

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Speaker 5: numbers and kind of the analytical side of my brain

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Speaker 5: seem to disagree with that. So in terms of the

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Speaker 5: biggest advantage you're talking about with the schedule that clearly

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Speaker 5: benefits the NL Central. They each get eight games against

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Speaker 5: the Tigers and the Royals. If you think about it

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Speaker 5: from the perspective of the you know, the top three

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Speaker 5: teams that I envisioned in the AL Central, the White Sox,

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Speaker 5: the Indians, and Twins, they each get forty percent of

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Speaker 5: their schedule, respectively against the Royals, the Tigers, and the Pirates.

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Speaker 5: So that's a substantial amount of games against three very

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Speaker 5: bad teams. So it's kind of hard to envision two

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Speaker 5: ALE Central clubs and two NL Central clubs not getting in.

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Speaker 5: So I think those are two good division the target

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Speaker 5: if you want to find value with a third or

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Speaker 5: four choice in the division. I'm not going to talk

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Speaker 5: anybody out of betting the Pirates at two hundred and

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Speaker 5: to one win the NL Central.

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Speaker 3: You know, it's not something that I see happening.

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Speaker 5: I don't think that they have the talent on their roster,

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Speaker 5: but over the course of a sixty games, sample, there

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Speaker 5: is value in them. They win the division probably you know,

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Speaker 5: three and a half percent of the time something like that.

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Speaker 3: It was an extremely tight division to begin with.

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Speaker 5: I think there were only three wins separating those top

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Speaker 5: four teams and win totals in the NL Central prior

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Speaker 5: to one hundred and sixty two game schedule, and now

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Speaker 5: after you adjust for everything, there's probably you know, one

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Speaker 5: one and change game separating the top four.

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Speaker 3: So really, if Milwaukee wins the division, I wouldn't be

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Speaker 3: a surprised at all. We can talk about some props later,

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Speaker 3: but I threw on our slack channel today.

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Speaker 5: I think Josh Hater to win the NLCY Young at

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Speaker 5: one hundred and fifty to one is a pretty logical

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Speaker 5: bet as a long shot opportunity in the short season.

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Speaker 5: They're going to be using him as often as possible,

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Speaker 5: especially relative to what else they have of their pitching staff.

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Speaker 5: So there's a lot of different ways that the season

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Speaker 5: could play out, you know, if you just want to

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Speaker 5: talk about World Series value from those Central divisions, I

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Speaker 5: think the Reds still at twenty five to one, I

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Speaker 5: have them down at twenty to one, the White Sox

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Speaker 5: at thirty to one.

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Speaker 3: I have them at twenty three to one. I think

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Speaker 3: either of.

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Speaker 5: Those are viable bets. I was taking a look at

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Speaker 5: Cleveland as well at twenty five to one. I have

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Speaker 5: them projected closer to nineteen. Cleveland is a really interesting

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Speaker 5: team from the Stars and Scrubs perspective. You were talking

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Speaker 5: about pitching depth overall, roster depth, the top three of

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Speaker 5: their rotation with carrasco Clevenger Bieber, and then in the

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Speaker 5: lineup with Jose Ramires and Lindor franmill Rays. I think

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Speaker 5: it hit pro rate out forty home runs over one

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Speaker 5: hundred and sixty two game schedule, So they have a

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Speaker 5: lot of top heavy talent that could certainly carry them

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Speaker 5: in a very short stretch of baseball, and then if

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Speaker 5: they get to the playoffs, they have a top of

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Speaker 5: the rotation that could function well within that format. They've

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Speaker 5: just consistently kind of let down in the past because

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Speaker 5: they sustain injuries over the course of a longer season

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Speaker 5: and they don't have a ton of roster depth, and

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Speaker 5: they manage the.

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Speaker 3: Plug holes pretty well because they're a well run organization.

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Speaker 5: But Cleveland is a team that have really had to

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Speaker 5: consider over the pastast few days because I think that

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Speaker 5: the schedule sets up well for them. They do have

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Speaker 5: a roster that I think the stars could carry them

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Speaker 5: in a shorter year.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the point that you brought up with the Pirates,

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Speaker 3: look number one, you don't even tie your money up

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Speaker 3: as long, but with with only a sixty game schedule.

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Speaker 3: The one thing I would remind people though, is if

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Speaker 3: you want to go, like you said, Pirates, take a

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Speaker 3: flyer in the division, even if you wanted to go

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Speaker 3: with Collins Royals, who are truch, same thing, because once

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Speaker 3: we get to the playoffs, the playoffs are going to

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Speaker 3: look pretty similar. Right, there's the same format and like

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Speaker 3: a you know, a Royals is not going to beat

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Speaker 3: a Yankees over a series like you get in there,

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Speaker 3: they're just completely overmatched. So if you want to go

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Speaker 3: in one of those lug shots and I like you, look,

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Speaker 3: this is the time to take a flyer, but I

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Speaker 3: would I would rather go for division. If you're going

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Speaker 3: tho shitty teams. Would you agree there? It depends on

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Speaker 3: the pricing.

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Speaker 5: Like in the Al East, the Raiser, you know, I

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Speaker 5: have the race projector at plus one fifty now to

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Speaker 5: win the AL East. I think that the Yankees probably

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Speaker 5: win it fifty five percent of the time. But they're

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Speaker 5: They're twenty two to one in the World Series futures markets.

390
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Speaker 5: So you know the Razor team, who I think is

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Speaker 5: going to have success in the playoffs regardless of the

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Speaker 5: match up with their pitching. Yeah absolutely. I mean we

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Speaker 5: saw them take Houston in Game five last year, go

394
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Speaker 5: toe to toe. Those games are all tight, so if

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Speaker 5: they have a lot of things that do work to

396
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Speaker 5: their benefit once they do get to the playoffs. So

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Speaker 5: I'm not going to take three and a half to

398
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Speaker 5: one on them to win the division when I could

399
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Speaker 5: take twenty two to one as a World Series future.

400
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Speaker 5: But in the Al East with Toronto at thirty five

401
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Speaker 5: to one to win the Eliast, yeah, I'm not gonna

402
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Speaker 5: take the World Series odds. I'd much rather take a

403
00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:28,000
Speaker 5: divisional future thirty five to one, or you know, the

404
00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:29,800
Speaker 5: Al West the Angels at seven to one, when I

405
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Speaker 5: have it projected at five to one, I think is interesting.

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Speaker 3: Do you know the A's.

407
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Speaker 5: I have a lot of preseason futures on for the division.

408
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Speaker 5: Now the odds are to seventy five, I haven't projected

409
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Speaker 5: to twenty five. Like I don't see a ton of

410
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Speaker 5: value there. I'd rather just play a World Series future

411
00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:42,840
Speaker 5: at twenty five to one and thirty to one. So

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Speaker 5: because again I think they're in a similar boat to

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Speaker 5: the Rays, where if they do get to the dance,

414
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Speaker 5: they have the pitching they can kind of carry them through.

415
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Speaker 5: I'd really want to either go with a complete long

416
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Speaker 5: shot for a division or take the second choice as

417
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Speaker 5: a World Series future.

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Speaker 3: YEP, calm, which what futures are you pyeing here? From

419
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Speaker 3: a World Series or pennant or division perspective.

420
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Speaker 4: Pretty comfortable with what Sean and I talked about and

421
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Speaker 4: what I already have money on, and I'm glad it's

422
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Speaker 4: not canceled. But having the Reds fifty to one, that's

423
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Speaker 4: long gone, having you know, the White Sox at the

424
00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:11,399
Speaker 4: number they were, having Oakland at four to.

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Speaker 3: One for their division.

426
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Speaker 4: So if there's a number that I'm going to hit

427
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Speaker 4: before play here starts in a couple of weeks, it's

428
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Speaker 4: not because I like the team. I don't like the team,

429
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Speaker 4: but the number is ridiculous. It's asinine, and it's the

430
00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:26,639
Speaker 4: Texas Rangers. Their playoff percentage chance went up, according to

431
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Speaker 4: fangrabts sixteen point six percent we're going to go playing

432
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Speaker 4: global life. Field used to be park. Now it's field,

433
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Speaker 4: different setting. They're gonna have a retractable roof. You look

434
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Speaker 4: at the left field right field lines three twenty nine

435
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Speaker 4: to three twenty six.

436
00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:39,120
Speaker 3: Nothing unbearable.

437
00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:42,720
Speaker 4: I think I remember that their left center field while

438
00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:44,280
Speaker 4: at three seventy two, is about the same as what

439
00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:44,880
Speaker 4: they had before.

440
00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:47,399
Speaker 3: So whether the roof is over not, the ball shield can.

441
00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:49,080
Speaker 4: Still be driven out of the park. I have serious

442
00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:51,879
Speaker 4: questions with Corey Klueber. What fractures his four armies out

443
00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:53,600
Speaker 4: for a while, comes back for thirty five innings, he

444
00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:57,200
Speaker 4: gets absolutely rocked, gets shut down for a oblique strain.

445
00:17:57,320 --> 00:17:59,800
Speaker 4: I don't like Mike Minor. His number is his X

446
00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:03,240
Speaker 4: expit numbers were I mean, just inflated that he was

447
00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:05,119
Speaker 4: just kind of he was getting by last year when

448
00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:07,080
Speaker 4: he shouldn't have, and that kind of there's a little

449
00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:09,240
Speaker 4: bit of regression in the second half there on them.

450
00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:11,399
Speaker 3: So I don't like the Rangers. I love them as

451
00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,000
Speaker 3: an offensive club, and you're gonna let.

452
00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,080
Speaker 4: Them start hitting in July and August, which is pretty

453
00:18:15,119 --> 00:18:17,359
Speaker 4: fantastic for them, But I don't think this is a

454
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:19,520
Speaker 4: pitching staff that could actually win the World Series. But

455
00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:22,720
Speaker 4: eighty five to one is a ridiculous number for a

456
00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:26,040
Speaker 4: team that is projected to finish pretty close to five hundred,

457
00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:28,800
Speaker 4: and that makes you wild card worthy. So eighty five

458
00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:30,359
Speaker 4: to one is a number out there at certain sports

459
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:30,719
Speaker 4: right now.

460
00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:32,879
Speaker 3: There are so many strikeouts in that lineup there, and

461
00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:36,200
Speaker 3: I just think that, you know, if Kluber can come back,

462
00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:38,360
Speaker 3: but they're really missing a right handed bat. I thought

463
00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:40,760
Speaker 3: that they were going to get a good right handed bat,

464
00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:42,680
Speaker 3: or just a solid right handed bat, which I think

465
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:44,479
Speaker 3: that they desperately need. That could come back to bite them.

466
00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:46,960
Speaker 3: But yeah, again, it's a sixty game, you know, with

467
00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:48,880
Speaker 3: a lot of variants, and if that offense gets hot,

468
00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:51,840
Speaker 3: if Kluber can find his previous form and come back

469
00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:53,480
Speaker 3: and Lynn look Lin, a lot of the Lyn's advanced

470
00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:56,880
Speaker 3: numbers were good last year. Any thoughts on the Rangers thrill?

471
00:18:57,560 --> 00:18:59,679
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I mentioned that you should probably either buy

472
00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:01,880
Speaker 5: the r or fade them completely. I took a look

473
00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:03,840
Speaker 5: at their under twenty seven and a half or under

474
00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:05,640
Speaker 5: twenty nine and a half. I haven't projected a twenty

475
00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:06,200
Speaker 5: seven wins.

476
00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:06,960
Speaker 3: Outside of the.

477
00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:09,800
Speaker 5: Orioles and Marlins, they have the worst collective position player

478
00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:12,879
Speaker 5: group in baseball, it's pretty much Joey Gallo and then

479
00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:15,680
Speaker 5: everybody else. So amongst the long shots that I was

480
00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:18,399
Speaker 5: looking at today, Joey Gallows sixty six to one for

481
00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:21,639
Speaker 5: MVP at MGM really stood out to me. If they

482
00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:23,480
Speaker 5: do make a run, you know, I think their rotation

483
00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:25,440
Speaker 5: is going to have to be pretty solid. But I

484
00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:30,040
Speaker 5: can't imagine Gallo not being a absolute monster contributor over

485
00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:33,280
Speaker 5: sixty games if they do make the playoffs and from there,

486
00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:35,400
Speaker 5: I think that kind of builds his MVP candiacy into

487
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:35,919
Speaker 5: it itself.

488
00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:37,640
Speaker 3: He played center field last year.

489
00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:40,720
Speaker 5: He was actually rated out as a scratch defensive centerfielder,

490
00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:42,359
Speaker 5: which is pretty impressive considering his.

491
00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:46,080
Speaker 3: Size and his power. So Gallo has been slowly improving,

492
00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:47,880
Speaker 3: and I think people have kind of are you afraid

493
00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:50,040
Speaker 3: no protection? Though though this year there's not like your

494
00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:51,919
Speaker 3: scary protection going.

495
00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:53,800
Speaker 5: I read studies in the past they have kind of

496
00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:58,399
Speaker 5: proven the protection is actually overrated and somewhat meetingless. Again,

497
00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:01,240
Speaker 5: it's tough to see right in a sixty game stretch

498
00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:03,880
Speaker 5: where there's less garbage time so to speak, or guys

499
00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:05,600
Speaker 5: is gonna be able to rack up the stats or

500
00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:08,200
Speaker 5: the work's really going to show because they're you know,

501
00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:10,960
Speaker 5: they're not getting to face crap pitching late in games

502
00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:13,000
Speaker 5: where the scores out of reach and it doesn't matter,

503
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:15,120
Speaker 5: and you're getting all those junket bats through the dog

504
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:17,439
Speaker 5: days this summer. So I think talent actually is going

505
00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:20,120
Speaker 5: to really shine through this year because you know, every

506
00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:23,000
Speaker 5: battery game is mostly going to be legitimate and you're

507
00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:24,960
Speaker 5: not going to be able to pad stats with garbage time.

508
00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,800
Speaker 5: My point is, if you're going to take a Rangers

509
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 5: twenty five to one future for their division, why not

510
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,200
Speaker 5: take Gallos sixty six to one to win MVP. I

511
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:37,000
Speaker 5: think those two are pretty highly correlated.

512
00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:39,200
Speaker 3: No, I agree with you, and I've seen some of

513
00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:42,880
Speaker 3: those studies that protection is vastly overrated. But I don't

514
00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:47,159
Speaker 3: think protection is overrated in October. Right, And you're like,

515
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:49,520
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna let this because every bat means so

516
00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,480
Speaker 3: much like you'll you can you know, go back to bonds, right.

517
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:54,720
Speaker 3: I mean, they're just intentionally welcome in the playoffs every

518
00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:58,360
Speaker 3: single time. So is this with more of a playoff

519
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,399
Speaker 3: mentality and how teams are managed and it's like, hey,

520
00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:04,199
Speaker 3: we're playing the Rangers. We are not going to let

521
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:07,280
Speaker 3: Gallo beat us into that end up hurting his numbers

522
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:08,920
Speaker 3: and he just ends up getting a lot more walks.

523
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,399
Speaker 3: I don't know, numbers is intriguing and he should put

524
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,480
Speaker 3: up you know, if he's getting pitches, gonna put up

525
00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 3: numbers in that par How excited for you?

526
00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:18,400
Speaker 5: The intensity? I mean as a Phillies fan, like, how

527
00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:21,239
Speaker 5: important is each game? Like you know, as a baseball fan,

528
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:23,359
Speaker 5: I rarely look at the standings early in the year.

529
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:25,479
Speaker 5: I'm gonna be looking at the standings every day. I mean,

530
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:27,720
Speaker 5: every game means so much. The drama is going to

531
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 5: be so high from day one. Hey, obviously everybody was

532
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:32,680
Speaker 5: super frustrated with how this played out, but I think

533
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:34,680
Speaker 5: once the season actually starts, people are going to be

534
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:37,680
Speaker 5: enthralled with the level of drama that is just there

535
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:38,239
Speaker 5: from day one.

536
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 3: Yeah. Look, you Colin, even as a Royals fan, like,

537
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 3: if you start this season in March, You're like, we're fucked,

538
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:45,920
Speaker 3: there's no way to win it. No, you're probably not

539
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 3: gonna bust, but it's let's fucking start thirteen and two,

540
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 3: and wow, we can have a couple of weeks where

541
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 3: everyone's like the Royals could get to the playoffs, right, Like,

542
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 3: it brings a lot more exciting to these teams that

543
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,720
Speaker 3: didn't have a shot. Listen, if you don't read Zillo,

544
00:21:57,800 --> 00:21:59,920
Speaker 3: it should be daily reading. Okay, go and read yours.

545
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,520
Speaker 4: Because he put out an article and said, the Royals

546
00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:04,720
Speaker 4: true odds of winning the World Series are one hundred

547
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:06,800
Speaker 4: and ten to one, and there's a book where it's.

548
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 3: Got him at five hundred to one and even the deepest. Now,

549
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:13,560
Speaker 3: I mean it's been I feel like my Royals days

550
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:15,640
Speaker 3: are long over. I'll never see a World Series ever again.

551
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:17,280
Speaker 3: But I mean, just there's numbers out there.

552
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,879
Speaker 4: Somebody, not the Orioles and Tigers, but somebody is going

553
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:23,440
Speaker 4: to start off fifteen to five and be in a

554
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:25,680
Speaker 4: playoff hunt and it's going to be the wildest and

555
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:27,280
Speaker 4: the odds, and that means there's gonna be value on

556
00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:28,680
Speaker 4: other teams that can probably make a comeback.

557
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:30,240
Speaker 3: But every day is going to be a playoff. And

558
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 3: I want to.

559
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:35,120
Speaker 4: Further Zarrillo's point, I mean, hater to win cy Young.

560
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:37,879
Speaker 4: This is a cy Young season where relievers going to

561
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 4: win it because they're going to get depend A bullpen

562
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 4: is going to.

563
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 3: Win a division. It's going to get a team into

564
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:44,440
Speaker 3: the wild Card. It's going to win a team of

565
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:45,400
Speaker 3: World Series this year.

566
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:47,200
Speaker 4: That's what's going to be most talked about at the

567
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:50,439
Speaker 4: end of every night, not Madison Bumgarner only getting eleven

568
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:52,480
Speaker 4: or twelve starts, right. I mean, if you missed one

569
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:54,880
Speaker 4: of those starts that are called if you get suspended

570
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 4: for throwing at somebody for.

571
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 3: Ten games and you only pitch nine times, you can't

572
00:22:57,960 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 3: win the sy Young. So I think this is a

573
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:02,680
Speaker 3: reliever word all the way. Just like Zerilla said, Yep,

574
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 3: I don't hate that at all. I'm gonna take some

575
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:06,120
Speaker 3: piece of that hater too, because one of the things

576
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 3: that I hated about the Brewer hater and hater, but

577
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 3: hated about the Brewers and councils that I was screaming

578
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 3: to use him, but he was so careful he used

579
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:15,639
Speaker 3: you know, he would treat hair with kids' clubs. They

580
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:17,359
Speaker 3: really didn't want to get him during the regular season.

581
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:19,239
Speaker 3: They would be like, we're not using him back to back,

582
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 3: and I thought they should use a lot more. I

583
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,239
Speaker 3: assume now they're gonna he's just gonna get a ton

584
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:25,440
Speaker 3: of usage with a sixty game season. Don't have to

585
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 3: worry about preserving him throughout the whole year and preserving

586
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:30,520
Speaker 3: his arm. So I think that's a great flyer in

587
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 3: a sixty game season. As far as my futures are concerned,

588
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 3: I thought that that, you know, if you want to

589
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,200
Speaker 3: argue like the Cubs and Phillies in a shortened, shortened season,

590
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 3: I think that they can benefit a little bit. But

591
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,160
Speaker 3: I really wanted to stay away from the NL East.

592
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,399
Speaker 3: It's just such a I could see it going so

593
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 3: many different ways. And then you're playing the AL East,

594
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 3: playing the races, you're playing the Yankees, I mean the

595
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 3: Red Sox. They're pitching his way down and hurt, but

596
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 3: still a formidable offense. So like you, I started originally

597
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 3: looked at the Central and West. I missed the White

598
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:56,879
Speaker 3: Sox number in a shortened season, I would love to

599
00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:58,359
Speaker 3: have what you guys have. I think the addition of

600
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:01,159
Speaker 3: Grand Doll's Gonna go is huge for their pitching staff.

601
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:04,639
Speaker 3: That offense is electric. I did take some reds. That

602
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 3: is my only NL future Castianos and the DH now

603
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 3: I think is a big help they have the pitching now,

604
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 3: that lineup is very formidable. Diamondbacks are intriguing, I think

605
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 3: is really you're gonna get to that. I've been looking

606
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 3: at them. Although it looks like Leak he's out. Joe

607
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 3: Ross by the way of the nets, he's also sitting out.

608
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,919
Speaker 3: But I went in the al I went with the athletics.

609
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 3: I think anything over twenty one is great. I've always

610
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:29,880
Speaker 3: talking about this and Slack Stufther's on Twitter a couple

611
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,680
Speaker 3: of people. I'm all about the A's. I think I

612
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 3: said that the Yanks benefited the most, and that's just

613
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:37,359
Speaker 3: because they got healthy. They have the pen now that

614
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 3: just they can just use their pen not worry about it.

615
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,959
Speaker 3: But the A's with all their young arms, right, they

616
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 3: can just push these guys they don't have to worry

617
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 3: about I don't think look and we're gonna get to

618
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 3: the potential alsy young on the A's. They have some

619
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 3: great young arms. They have a pretty balanced lineup. I

620
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 3: love their defense. They're pitching depth. You know, they have

621
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 3: a lot of guys. You have Manya coming back, Lizardo

622
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 3: and pock Like. It's a legit team. They didn't add

623
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 3: a ton of the offseason. This is an up and

624
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 3: coming team. They get them an eye back, they bring

625
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 3: these young arms up. I think this team the only

626
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 3: thing I'm worried about with them is one thing, and

627
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 3: I think it's random. I couldn't find a good reason

628
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:13,440
Speaker 3: for it, so I had to throw it out. Is

629
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:16,880
Speaker 3: slow starts, right this team? Every year you see the A's,

630
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 3: they go on this huge run. You know, if I

631
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 3: look back at the A's, they made the playoffs five

632
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 3: times in less ten years. If we started in the

633
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 3: first sixty games, they would have only made it twice.

634
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 3: So this is a team. You know, if you just

635
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:32,560
Speaker 3: took the records after the first sixty games, they were

636
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:35,360
Speaker 3: only made the playoffs two times. Unlets say, is why

637
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:37,359
Speaker 3: is that? I don't know. It's not like they go

638
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:39,680
Speaker 3: out and have these huge splash epergency. So I chalked

639
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 3: it up to just randomness. And there's nothing too. I

640
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 3: don't think that there's something on this A's roster where

641
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 3: they just can't start fast. So if there was something

642
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 3: I could correlate it to, then maybe it would give

643
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:52,360
Speaker 3: me more pause. But I'm all about the A's this year.

644
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:54,119
Speaker 3: The other thing that you have working for you is

645
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 3: how much of a of a drop are the aster

646
00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 3: Is gonna have now that they can't cheat? Right, I

647
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 3: don't know how to price some of these players and

648
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,200
Speaker 3: the team in general. I'll get your thoughts roll of, like,

649
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 3: what is the discount you assume discount on the Astros players?

650
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:11,639
Speaker 3: You know, when you're modeling this out going into the season,

651
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 3: what are your thought you know, I think I think

652
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:15,680
Speaker 3: you keep them the same.

653
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:18,200
Speaker 5: And you see how close the gap alarady is, and

654
00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 5: you note that it's closer than the market suggest that

655
00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:24,639
Speaker 5: it is. So that alone leaves room for error with

656
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 5: regards to the potential regression for the Astros from whatever

657
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:30,360
Speaker 5: advantages they might have had. But you don't even need

658
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:33,680
Speaker 5: that regression to come in for you know, variants to

659
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 5: work in your favor and those bets to provided value.

660
00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:38,639
Speaker 5: So you know, I think those bets are super viable.

661
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 5: Welcome to the bandwagon. First of all, happy to have

662
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 5: you join, Colin and myself, you know, just to remark

663
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 5: on what you guys said, Colin dropping the Royals at

664
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 5: five hundred to one, you know, Fanger ask gives them

665
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 5: a point nine percent chance of winning the World Series.

666
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,440
Speaker 5: It's not like it's just me coming up with some

667
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 5: random number. The value is there either one hundred to

668
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:00,280
Speaker 5: one to win the division? Somewhere you can I mean,

669
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 5: I have them at twenty two to one, so that's

670
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:04,400
Speaker 5: worth a little taste as well.

671
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:05,639
Speaker 3: List Like, if you don't have.

672
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 5: Some sort of ten dollars bet on some team that's

673
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:10,880
Speaker 5: two hundred to one going into the season, I don't

674
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:12,920
Speaker 5: know what you're doing with yourself. Because this is this

675
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 5: is such a unique and fun betting opportunity. You just

676
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:18,160
Speaker 5: got to take a shot somewhere. You guys were talking

677
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 5: about bullpens. I think the best bull one. I don't

678
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:22,920
Speaker 5: know about your guys' opinion coming into the year. I'm

679
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:25,640
Speaker 5: pretty convinced the San Diego Padres have the best pen

680
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 5: top for bottom Yates and Pagan at the back of

681
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 5: that thing. They sign Drew Pomerantz, and they are the

682
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,719
Speaker 5: National League version of the Rays in terms of how

683
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 5: they've built their depth and they're pitching into their minor leagues.

684
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 5: They have a ton of international free agent signings, a

685
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 5: bunch of Cuban guys who are super fun. Dinilsen when

686
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:44,199
Speaker 5: Mech coming back at the end of last year off

687
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 5: of Tommy John surgery, Paddock.

688
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 3: No innings limit concerns, you know, in a shorter season.

689
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:52,640
Speaker 5: So the Padres, like I don't want to buy into

690
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:55,680
Speaker 5: the Padres because I'm so high on the Diamondbacks. You know,

691
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:57,719
Speaker 5: at this point I should mention the Diamondbacks at ten

692
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 5: to one to win the NL West absolute value, I

693
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:03,880
Speaker 5: have them closer to plus three fifty the Padres plus ten.

694
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 5: They're also ten to one at the West gates win

695
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 5: the NL West. I have them at plus four to

696
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 5: twenty five. So the Dodters were super dominant from start

697
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 5: to finish last year, and I believe they would have

698
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:14,440
Speaker 5: won the NL West over every stretch of baseball. But

699
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 5: two years ago they did start out really slow. They

700
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:20,200
Speaker 5: became the second choice of the division at one point

701
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:22,360
Speaker 5: I think I can't remember who they fell behind, possibly

702
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 5: the Rockies earlier in the year, and then the Rockies

703
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 5: won them that late run as well to end up

704
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 5: getting back in the hunt. But the Padres team is

705
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 5: that this pitching staff is just incredibly talented. They have

706
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:36,399
Speaker 5: a ton of dudes to throw hard, and I think

707
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 5: they're going to be really scary and just kind of

708
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 5: keep coming at people playing a lot of tight games.

709
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 3: So maybe with that pitching.

710
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 5: Staff, Machado Tatisse taking a step up like that is

711
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 5: a scary team.

712
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 4: The Padres fit the mold of a team that is young, hungry,

713
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 4: has the talent, and has a GM that wants to

714
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 4: buy when he's gonna need to buy. Now, there's another

715
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 4: team that fits this mode, so I'll wait until we

716
00:28:57,120 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 4: get in the division previews. I actually like them better

717
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 4: than Pod because Zach Davies that k rate scares the

718
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:03,840
Speaker 4: hell out of me. And I need Lament to really

719
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 4: take that next step and be the be the next Ace.

720
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 4: And then I've always had a problem, you guys know much.

721
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 4: I love Eric Cosmer being a former Royal, and when

722
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 4: you've got Madison Bumgarner, Robbie Ray and you know left

723
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 4: handers like Kershaw in that division that is really rough

724
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 4: to have him bat number three and if Protections is

725
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 4: not overrated, that hurts. Machado can get off the schnid

726
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 4: after switching leagues here, But we'll talk about another team

727
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 4: that I think is also young and has a GM

728
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 4: it toiling to make some moves.

729
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 5: You know, the Diamondbacks have a ton of rotation depth.

730
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 5: I think Leak might have just been told like, hey man.

731
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 3: You're number seven, like you're probably not gonna pitch, so

732
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 3: if you want to stay home.

733
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 5: I think that was that was fairly like a depth

734
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 5: fag and I think the Zipperman thing and that Joe

735
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 5: Ross thing were a little bit more impactful. But that

736
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 5: being said, he's not gonna be the last guy that

737
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:47,520
Speaker 5: stays up.

738
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 3: Yep. That's that's gonna be something to watch for sure.

739
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 3: The interesting part about the Diamondbacks, look, you know you

740
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 3: have you know you had a bum Garner and there

741
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 3: that lineup is legit, man. That lineup is balanced one

742
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 3: through eight. We nine. Now in the NL, it's a

743
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 3: very very dangerous lineup to an intriguing team, and if

744
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 3: they win, you assume more times than not the Dodgers

745
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 3: are going to win the division. But in a sixty

746
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 3: game there is some value I think on theneback. But

747
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 3: if they if you want to go World Series, the

748
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 3: one thing to keep in mind is if they get

749
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 3: to the Wildcard, guess who you got going? Probably Madison Bumguarter.

750
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 3: That maybe the greatest single game postseason picture of all time. Sorry, Colin,

751
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 3: so you gotta keep that. I think he's I think

752
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 3: he's their second best starter, stucky.

753
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 5: I think Zach Allen's a better pitcher, and uh, you know,

754
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:32,800
Speaker 5: my favorite long shot bet for NLMVP is Starling Marte

755
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 5: at one hundred to one.

756
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 3: That was incredible trade for them.

757
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:37,840
Speaker 5: Fits their lineup perfectly, theyn A, Cole cal Hunt and

758
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 5: right field, so they have a complete outfield now David

759
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:42,720
Speaker 5: Peralta coming back in left field, so that's like, like

760
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 5: you said, a complete lineup top to bottom. They fit

761
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 5: really well together. They're a really good defensive team. The

762
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 5: bullpen's bullpen's a little bit concerning, that's probably their one

763
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 5: weak spot, but really good rotation depth. I just like

764
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 5: watching this Divybacks team play baseball. They're just fun to watch,

765
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:57,160
Speaker 5: all right.

766
00:30:57,200 --> 00:31:00,320
Speaker 3: What one division we haven't talked about yet is, or

767
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 3: we haven't talked about a lot, is the NL East.

768
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 3: So you have your Mets, my Phillies, we have the

769
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 3: Nats who cashed our future last year, and sorry, the

770
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 3: Braids as well. I mean it's a low to division

771
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 3: and then the Marlins. The one thing I keep coming

772
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 3: back to with the Mets. Obviously you don't have Cinderguard,

773
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 3: which would have really helped in a shortened season, but

774
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 3: that defense just scares liv and shit out of me.

775
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 3: I don't know if I trust the Phillies pitching enough,

776
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 3: and I just don't see any value in the Braids.

777
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 3: This is a division I wanted to stay far away from. Dubill.

778
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 3: I'll get your going to get your thoughts here in

779
00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 3: Colin you too, so I'll start with you. Any overall

780
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 3: thoughts on your Mets. Are you more or less excited

781
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 3: about the Mets of the shortened season? And do you

782
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 3: see any value in the NL East?

783
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 5: Now, this is probably the toughest division in baseball to

784
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 5: bet on, probably since the start of the year, just

785
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 5: super tight projections. But I felt like everybody's probably pretty

786
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 5: on point with where they were put. I think the

787
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 5: Marlins really got the short end of the stick with

788
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 5: the schedule. They can only play the four nlest teams

789
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 5: that are projected to finish above five hundred over the

790
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 5: course of one hundred sixty two games. Whilst now you

791
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 5: had the Yankees, the Rays, improving Blue Jays team, you know,

792
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 5: the Orioles, whatever. But the Marlins under twenty four and

793
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:08,440
Speaker 5: a half is appealing to me. I projected them at

794
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 5: twenty two, so I think if I make two win

795
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:12,960
Speaker 5: total bets. I mentioned the Raiders, I'm kind of like

796
00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 5: indifferent on that one. So I think the Red Sox

797
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 5: under thirty one and a half and the Marlins under

798
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 5: twenty four and a half are the two win total

799
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 5: bets will likely make. I think the other eight teams

800
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 5: in the Eastern divisions are just going to put it

801
00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 5: off on them that they're not gonna be able to

802
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 5: get there rip.

803
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 3: Or CLV on the Red Sox win total. What did

804
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 3: you get it at?

805
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 5: You know, I'm not ready to talk about this yet.

806
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 5: I bet the under a ninety four and a half.

807
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 5: I points bet it at ninety three, so I would

808
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:40,800
Speaker 5: have won my bet each time over every win they

809
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 5: finished under ninety three. I believe the last it closed

810
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 5: before the season was canceled was eighty four. So yeah,

811
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:48,840
Speaker 5: that's one of the best bets I'll ever make.

812
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 3: That I'll just never see the light of day on.

813
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:53,000
Speaker 5: But the Phillies at five to one at the West

814
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 5: Gate is probably the only divisional value I see in

815
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 5: the NL East. I have them at a round four fifty.

816
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 5: That's another Stars and Scrubs team with real Muthdale Harper.

817
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 5: I think Hoskins is an interesting guy to bet for

818
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 5: most home runs. I think he's there was like a

819
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,240
Speaker 5: sixty to one on him somewhere. I still believe he

820
00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 5: has one of the highest power ceilings in baseball. So listen,

821
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 5: as a guy who watched Zach Willard for a few years,

822
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 5: I don't think he's a star pitcher. I think he's

823
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 5: like a solid number two or number three guy. I

824
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 5: kind of have similar opinions on Aaron Noah. But if

825
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 5: you give me sixty really good games from your three

826
00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 5: stars in your lineup, and then a bunch of good

827
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 5: starts from those two guys, you can make a wild

828
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 5: card run.

829
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 3: Bullpen's troubling though, too. How about your Matt So you

830
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:36,720
Speaker 3: more optimistic with a shortened season than you would have

831
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 3: been in a longer season.

832
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 5: I mean, there's fewer opportunities for their entire roster to

833
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 5: get hurt, which is usually the problem. The fact that

834
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 5: they are the world champions of opening day means that

835
00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 5: they're one win closer to making the playoffs. So we're

836
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 5: guaranteed a one to no start, and then from there

837
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 5: you just got to go, what is it, thirty and

838
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 5: twenty nine the rest of the way maybe to make

839
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 5: the playoffs. So yeah, I just think the nleast is

840
00:33:57,400 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 5: like it's a crapshoot and all we're getting is a

841
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 5: shorter sample of that crap shoot. So it's if you

842
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 5: want to roll the dice with the longest odds and

843
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 5: the phillies, that's probably the best bet.

844
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:06,959
Speaker 3: I mean, I guess one of the arguments. I mean

845
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:09,640
Speaker 3: the Mets there, they're so old in certain places, man,

846
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:12,239
Speaker 3: But like I mean, you get Purcell and Wakat. It's

847
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 3: an even year, so is that Portell is maybe supposed

848
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:15,400
Speaker 3: to be good if you believe in like the Giants

849
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 3: even year voodoo. But they're older guys that in the

850
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:21,200
Speaker 3: shortened season you can push harder and there's less injury

851
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 3: risk with those guys that you're filling in the rotation

852
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:26,880
Speaker 3: behind obviously to Grom and Stroman Colin, I don't know

853
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:28,880
Speaker 3: if you want to go n L East or you

854
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 3: were talking about another team that you're hitting at before

855
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:33,239
Speaker 3: with a GM that you think would go at it.

856
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 3: I'll I'll let you go where you would like to wander.

857
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll give a quick thought and then I'm gonna

858
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 4: bridge over to the al E.

859
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:40,839
Speaker 3: So I completely agree with Sean.

860
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:42,399
Speaker 4: I just I didn't see any value in here because

861
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:45,520
Speaker 4: I legitimately think four teams could finish with the exact

862
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 4: same record, and you know, the Marlins were given a

863
00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:51,840
Speaker 4: point five twenty two strength of schedule that was second

864
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 4: highest out of all teams according to fan grafts, So

865
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 4: you can count them out, uh, and then they're you know,

866
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 4: it's just a crapshoot between the best four teams in

867
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 4: that vision. And I would say that I would take

868
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:03,719
Speaker 4: a really long shot fire on Michael Conforto to win

869
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 4: the home run title. I just think he's a guy

870
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,759
Speaker 4: who's not seen the ceiling of how many home runs

871
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:10,840
Speaker 4: he can actually hit. He's got, you know, Suspetus in

872
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:12,840
Speaker 4: front of him. I believe Pete Alonso is going to

873
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 4: bat third there, and you know, if Confordo stays healthy.

874
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 4: The biggest knock on him is that for some reason

875
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 4: he was platooned all the time, and it's a you know,

876
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:22,880
Speaker 4: it's a full sixty games and gets enough. AB's in

877
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:26,000
Speaker 4: there and you know Suspectus is seeing all the action.

878
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 4: He's just you know, left behind with guys on base.

879
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 4: You can see something special out of Conforto. I don't

880
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:32,320
Speaker 4: think we've seen the Ceilium's home runs, so I should

881
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:34,239
Speaker 4: let probably let Sean talk about it as his team.

882
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:37,320
Speaker 4: But I don't feel like we've hit Confordo's ceiling. Do

883
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 4: you think about that Zarella before I hop onto the

884
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:40,279
Speaker 4: Al East here?

885
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:42,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, and he's a guy who can just binge for

886
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 3: four weeks too.

887
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:48,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, like he gets super duper and yeah, but you know,

888
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:52,400
Speaker 5: having cuspatus potentially for the universe of the h Spot

889
00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:54,760
Speaker 5: is exciting. They have a lot of bad defensive players

890
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:57,319
Speaker 5: on the team, so the be ability to move guys

891
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 5: in and out. Jady Davis is pretty bad defensively too,

892
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:01,720
Speaker 5: move and guys at it out platoon.

893
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:03,400
Speaker 3: But it's it's also a new manager.

894
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:04,920
Speaker 5: And we haven't talked about this yet, but there are

895
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:07,799
Speaker 5: ten new managers across the league, which is a substantially

896
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 5: high number, I do think. And this is important because

897
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 5: we're not in the midst of talking about the divisional futures.

898
00:36:13,120 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 5: But if you are looking at these divisional futures or

899
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:18,239
Speaker 5: lomp shot futures or teams that might intrigue you, just

900
00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:20,160
Speaker 5: keep in mind it's going to be so much easier

901
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 5: for a team to pick up where they left off

902
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:25,359
Speaker 5: that it is after the layed start virtually coaching all

903
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:27,439
Speaker 5: of their players and doing player development over the winter,

904
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:30,239
Speaker 5: like they're they're doing what we're doing they're doing zoom

905
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:32,560
Speaker 5: calls and they're telling a guy work under swing, you know,

906
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:35,359
Speaker 5: change this, and giving them advice over zoom.

907
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:36,920
Speaker 3: So it's it's not hands on coaching.

908
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:39,880
Speaker 5: That relationship that already exists is gonna be so much

909
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:41,600
Speaker 5: more beneficial this year than it was Brier.

910
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:44,319
Speaker 4: And that's a major bridge over to what I wanted

911
00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:46,279
Speaker 4: to talk about, which was the Al East and the

912
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 4: team that I love out of there is the Toronto

913
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:50,879
Speaker 4: Blue Jayson. When you talk about how teams have new,

914
00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 4: you know, coaches in place or new that, the Yankees

915
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 4: have a new pitching coach and he's not hands on,

916
00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 4: he's not mechanics, he's he's an analytics guy. He does

917
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:02,040
Speaker 4: his over zoom. The pitchers don't know him that well.

918
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:05,200
Speaker 4: And you know, the Yankees, this layoff, I don't think it.

919
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 4: I mean, I know Stuckey said it's good for their health,

920
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:09,840
Speaker 4: but scheduling wise and chances to make the playoffs, a

921
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 4: sixty game season means other teams could get hot and

922
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:13,400
Speaker 4: potentially knock them out.

923
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 3: I mean, there's a lot of ways for the Yankees

924
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 3: get knocked out. Here.

925
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:18,319
Speaker 4: A team that is young, full of talent, I mean,

926
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:21,480
Speaker 4: loaded with talent as a GM that's ready to snap

927
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:23,920
Speaker 4: his fingers and try to do something specially. And so

928
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:25,799
Speaker 4: if there's a win total I'm gonna take it's going

929
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:27,400
Speaker 4: to be over twenty eight. Now I know that the

930
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:31,080
Speaker 4: projection I believe is twenty seven according to fan crafts

931
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 4: and Sean, I'm not sure if you're around that twenty

932
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:35,040
Speaker 4: seven as we're doing this here, But we.

933
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 3: Don't know where the Blue Jays are going to play.

934
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 3: It could be down in Florida.

935
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:40,960
Speaker 4: There's a free training facility Dundon, could be up in Toronto,

936
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:41,560
Speaker 4: the Rogers Center.

937
00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:44,480
Speaker 3: We'll see how COVID plays out. They are deep in

938
00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 3: the talent player pool.

939
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:47,120
Speaker 4: Now what I mean is if they got to call

940
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 4: guys up, they have a major amount of guys in

941
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 4: the farm that are heavily talented. And it's not just

942
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:56,520
Speaker 4: Bigo and Bishett and Vlad Junior. I mean ti Oscar

943
00:37:56,600 --> 00:37:58,560
Speaker 4: Hernandez is a guy that I've brought her in Fantasy

944
00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 4: Baseball for years because he gets hot, he gets streaky,

945
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:02,879
Speaker 4: and this is a guy that's potentially gonna bat eighth

946
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:03,840
Speaker 4: and you know, go through the.

947
00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:06,600
Speaker 3: Go through the d H part of the lineup. You know,

948
00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 3: pitching wise. They added for you, they added Tanner Roark.

949
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 3: I don't believe him at shoemaker, but you know, this.

950
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 4: Is a team that I think is a pitcher away

951
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:18,839
Speaker 4: and a Yankees fold from winning a division and making

952
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 4: a serious run.

953
00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 3: That they are young enough.

954
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:22,320
Speaker 4: They are, I mean, they can blast the ball with

955
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 4: anybody in the league. I love the Toronto Blue Jayson.

956
00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:27,640
Speaker 3: That's my key to is. That's what helped me back

957
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:29,880
Speaker 3: on the Jays as their starting rotation. Like, I'm not

958
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:32,400
Speaker 3: a big shoemaker guy. I'm I think Rio is a

959
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 3: big regression candidate. He was obviously really fortunate last year.

960
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:38,520
Speaker 3: But now he's going from pitching in all those you know,

961
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 3: all the teams in the NL West, right there's a lot.

962
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 3: I mean, you have you have to go to Arizona,

963
00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:45,600
Speaker 3: but you're pitching in San Diego, you're pitching at home

964
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 3: in LA right now, you're going and playing all these East,

965
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:50,880
Speaker 3: the AL East, the NL East teams, and he was

966
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 3: just fortunate. Overall. He's your number one. Roark is your

967
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:57,279
Speaker 3: number two. If that rotation gets into the playoffs, even

968
00:38:57,680 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 3: I don't love it, but look if they go out

969
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:02,759
Speaker 3: and get another starter at the deadline, yeah, you're right.

970
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:04,600
Speaker 3: I mean it's a team that in a sixty game.

971
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 3: I look and I think Zerl said this rug. I'm

972
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 3: not going to argue against anyone wanting to take a

973
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:12,440
Speaker 3: flyer on a team this year in this sprint. Thoughts

974
00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:13,560
Speaker 3: on the Al East as well.

975
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:16,439
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I said, you know, I'm gonna there's value

976
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 5: on the race at plus three fifty, I'm going to

977
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:19,839
Speaker 5: bypass that. I'd rather take a future at twenty two

978
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 5: to one. The Jays, I think is the team to

979
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:24,320
Speaker 5: take a divisional flyer on thirty five to one. I

980
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:27,239
Speaker 5: have them closer to twenty four hundred. So that's that's

981
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:29,239
Speaker 5: of interest to me. If you wanted to talk about

982
00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 5: Rookie of the year, I'm extremely high in Nazel Czardo.

983
00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:35,240
Speaker 5: Obviously Lewis Robert for the White Sox is the favorite,

984
00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:37,960
Speaker 5: but Nate Pearson I'm seeing him over twenty to one.

985
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 5: He only needs to stay down for a week, so

986
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:42,799
Speaker 5: he's basically got to miss a start before he can

987
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:44,520
Speaker 5: come up with the Blue Jays and get that extra

988
00:39:44,640 --> 00:39:45,399
Speaker 5: year of service time.

989
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:47,560
Speaker 3: This guy's going to be a top of the rotation arm.

990
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:49,320
Speaker 3: So you had him next to Ryu.

991
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:53,120
Speaker 5: They have essentially two or you know, two number two

992
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:56,360
Speaker 5: pitchers from the get go, which is why I do

993
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:58,920
Speaker 5: like them to surpass Boston this year. And Colin, just

994
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:00,959
Speaker 5: to your point, I have them at twenty eight wins,

995
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:02,680
Speaker 5: so they're they're right on the border with Boston.

996
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:05,440
Speaker 4: Enough pitching to get through a wildcard game with Pearson, right,

997
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:08,400
Speaker 4: I mean, if if he's as hot as as as talented,

998
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:10,319
Speaker 4: then then enough to get through a wildcard game.

999
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:12,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, I certainly agree they're they're a five at er club.

1000
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:15,280
Speaker 3: Last session. Look, we've hit a lot of different futures

1001
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:18,280
Speaker 3: player props sprinkled throughout. Before we get to some thoughts

1002
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 3: on the rule changes d or what we think of

1003
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 3: games early on in the season and strategy there, I'm

1004
00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:27,319
Speaker 3: going to go around the horn kind of sum up

1005
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:29,680
Speaker 3: and then add any you know sprinkles that you want

1006
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 3: to mention that you haven't mentioned before. But I'm just

1007
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:35,040
Speaker 3: gonna say A's talked about them a lot, and the Reds,

1008
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:36,880
Speaker 3: I mean I think that they have the pitching, they

1009
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 3: have the pen. You know, you have we hinted that

1010
00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 3: this earlier castianis now in the DH spot, the universal DH.

1011
00:40:42,600 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 3: That's huge, you know, don't forget about a queen on Noup.

1012
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 3: You're gonna have them for the full sixty games you

1013
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:49,800
Speaker 3: have as a potential leadoff hitter. I mean, this lineup

1014
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 3: is mustakis. They add I love this lineup. They have

1015
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:55,480
Speaker 3: the pitching that I think if they get hot in

1016
00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:57,719
Speaker 3: the playoffs, they can play with anyone in the NL.

1017
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:00,840
Speaker 3: So it's Reds, it's a and then I'm gonna be

1018
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 3: taking a couple of flyers. Maybe it's a Royals for

1019
00:41:04,120 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 3: the division. Love the hater player prop. I'm all about Lazardo,

1020
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 3: so probably take a shot there. Although I wish I

1021
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:11,919
Speaker 3: would have got what was he about a year ago

1022
00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:13,719
Speaker 3: for this year was one hundred to one, two hundred

1023
00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 3: and one, three to one in December three hundred one,

1024
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:18,279
Speaker 3: which would have been nice. Obviously he would I don't

1025
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:19,760
Speaker 3: think he would have had a shot because they wouldn't

1026
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 3: have been you wouldn't have used them all year. But

1027
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:24,680
Speaker 3: now they can use his arm for sixty games and

1028
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 3: not have to worry about that. So that's kind of

1029
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:28,960
Speaker 3: where I stand. I can't hate you if you want

1030
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 3: to go, you know, like I said, a Cubs, if

1031
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 3: you want to go anything. The Phillies like George, just

1032
00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:37,279
Speaker 3: take a shot, have some fun, there's gonna be a

1033
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 3: lot of variants, So Colin, I'll go to you, just

1034
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:42,960
Speaker 3: sum up your kind of your favorite futures that you've hit,

1035
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:46,000
Speaker 3: any player props or anything you haven't mentioned. Like I said,

1036
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:47,360
Speaker 3: I'm not going to take any overs on any of

1037
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:49,239
Speaker 3: these win totals, but some of the unders I like.

1038
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:50,920
Speaker 3: I would take the Cubs under thirty two.

1039
00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:53,640
Speaker 4: This is a team that I'm not sure about the chemistry,

1040
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:56,839
Speaker 4: new manager. Gee, there's just all kinds of things going

1041
00:41:56,880 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 4: on here.

1042
00:41:57,120 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 3: And if you're in a.

1043
00:41:57,640 --> 00:41:59,879
Speaker 4: Sixty game season and you get behind by seven games

1044
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:02,520
Speaker 4: with thirty games left to go, the Cubs and the

1045
00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:05,080
Speaker 4: Red Sox feel like a team that's not gonna leg out.

1046
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:07,839
Speaker 4: They're not going to lay out those deep ground ball

1047
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:10,480
Speaker 4: to the shortstop hole. And I just feel like with

1048
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:12,360
Speaker 4: their win totals, it's something I would want to be

1049
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 4: on the under on. Still love Oakland to win their division,

1050
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 4: and I'm taking a long shot flyer not because I

1051
00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:19,959
Speaker 4: love the team, because I love the number.

1052
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:21,920
Speaker 3: I'll be on the Texas Rangers at eighty five to one.

1053
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:24,879
Speaker 3: Good summary there, And I just want to say something.

1054
00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:26,880
Speaker 3: I wish I had your White Sox number for this

1055
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:28,920
Speaker 3: shortened season, I don't see any value there, but I

1056
00:42:29,040 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 3: do still see value in the Reds. I hit them

1057
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:34,040
Speaker 3: twenty eight to one, I think, just as I hit

1058
00:42:34,080 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 3: the A's at twenty to one. I think both teams

1059
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 3: in their situations with the short season, anything over twenty

1060
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:41,759
Speaker 3: to one. I've seen the A's. I think they're getting

1061
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:44,360
Speaker 3: hit some places. They're down eighteen to one at some places,

1062
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 3: but anything over over twenty to one, and you know,

1063
00:42:48,080 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 3: even more value the closer you get. A thirty to

1064
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 3: one on both of those teams still as value, Zarella,

1065
00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:55,919
Speaker 3: I'll let you sum up where you're at over here. Yeah,

1066
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 3: you're just kind of setting that twenty to one mark

1067
00:42:58,239 --> 00:42:59,320
Speaker 3: as a cutoff. I agree.

1068
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 5: You know that the Indians, the Race, the Reds, the

1069
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:06,319
Speaker 5: White Sox, any of those teams twenty five to one,

1070
00:43:06,400 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 5: twenty to one, I'm fine with Padres. The Dbacks forty

1071
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:12,960
Speaker 5: one are better. I think are also good considerations the

1072
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:14,879
Speaker 5: two win totals. I'm gonna be on the Red Sox

1073
00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 5: under thirty one and a half open thirty two and

1074
00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:17,960
Speaker 5: a half. I still like it at thirty one and

1075
00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:21,640
Speaker 5: a half. Probably the Marlins as well. Under twenty four

1076
00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:24,680
Speaker 5: and a half. I have them at twenty two. Divisional

1077
00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:27,240
Speaker 5: prices that I think are actionable at this point. Toronto

1078
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:29,800
Speaker 5: at thirty five to one, the Angels at seven to

1079
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:32,480
Speaker 5: one is interesting, Philly is at five to one, it's

1080
00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:34,600
Speaker 5: probably and then the Potters and d Backs in the

1081
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:36,319
Speaker 5: West at ten to one. I think I think those

1082
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:37,919
Speaker 5: are you know where I would target at this point.

1083
00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:40,400
Speaker 5: But my advice to people would be to try to

1084
00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:42,120
Speaker 5: build out a futures card ware. If you're going to

1085
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:45,160
Speaker 5: betting player props, player awards props, try to build them

1086
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:47,719
Speaker 5: that correlate to whatever you think is going to happen

1087
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 5: in the vision. So a lot of the player awards

1088
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:51,480
Speaker 5: that I bet Matt Schappan twenty five to one for

1089
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:54,879
Speaker 5: al MVP, GI Alito, eighteen to one for AlSi Young

1090
00:43:55,520 --> 00:43:58,360
Speaker 5: Sodo at eleven to one for NLMVP, just because I

1091
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:00,439
Speaker 5: think it's his year. But there are there are still

1092
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:02,800
Speaker 5: a lot of futures values on the board that I

1093
00:44:02,880 --> 00:44:04,320
Speaker 5: think I'm going to be attacking, and I think that

1094
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:05,919
Speaker 5: is where most of the value is at this point,

1095
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:07,920
Speaker 5: just because of what can happen in a short season.

1096
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 5: So the bets I like most from their al MVP

1097
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:14,800
Speaker 5: meadows Gallos sixty six to one, the Cosmoni Grondallas sixty

1098
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 5: to one, Cy Young, Morton g Alito fifteen to one,

1099
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:20,880
Speaker 5: eighteen to one, Lazardio at sixteen to one, and l

1100
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:24,439
Speaker 5: MVP Josh Bellet eighty one for the Pirates, Starling Marte

1101
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:27,120
Speaker 5: hundred and one for the d Backs, and Elsy Young.

1102
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:28,880
Speaker 5: If you get you Darvis still at twenty five to

1103
00:44:28,960 --> 00:44:30,919
Speaker 5: one at MGM, which I think is a big standout price.

1104
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:32,680
Speaker 5: There's he's like half that at a lot of places.

1105
00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 5: He was really hot down the stretch last year. He

1106
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:39,560
Speaker 5: walked like five batters over his final ten starts, and

1107
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:42,880
Speaker 5: then for most homers Stanton twenty to one. If you

1108
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:45,160
Speaker 5: go buy at bats or home runs per play appearance,

1109
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:47,160
Speaker 5: he's right there with Gallo at the top, and in

1110
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:49,200
Speaker 5: a sixty game season he should be able to stay healthy.

1111
00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 5: Hoskins fifty to one, George Springer eighty to one. Springer

1112
00:44:53,160 --> 00:44:55,600
Speaker 5: was pacing for fifty home runs last year and he's

1113
00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 5: guaranteed at bats at the top of the Astros lineup,

1114
00:44:57,600 --> 00:44:59,399
Speaker 5: plays every day, so I think at a short stretch

1115
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:01,840
Speaker 5: he could certainly the league. And then Casson here at

1116
00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 5: eight one hundred to one that's a ton of power.

1117
00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:08,520
Speaker 5: Just he's he's a potentially superstar back. Really bad defensive player,

1118
00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:10,920
Speaker 5: but that guy is like a forty homer bat over

1119
00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:12,640
Speaker 5: the course of one hundred and sixty games. So if

1120
00:45:12,640 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 5: you give me one hundred and one odds on him,

1121
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:17,279
Speaker 5: no question. Even his MVP odds are pretty crazy. He's

1122
00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:19,239
Speaker 5: not a good defensive player at asy eletro on that team,

1123
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:21,839
Speaker 5: But here's a guy to watch out for fantasy wise too.

1124
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 5: He's going to be an absolute stud.

1125
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:25,600
Speaker 4: I need to find some odds on the newest oriole

1126
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:29,240
Speaker 4: Heston Kerstad drafted straight out of the University of Arkansas.

1127
00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:31,200
Speaker 4: He's going to be a banger for the Orioles in

1128
00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 4: the future.

1129
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:33,080
Speaker 3: You know, that's one thing to watch too.

1130
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:34,360
Speaker 4: I don't know if we're going to expect any of

1131
00:45:34,360 --> 00:45:36,120
Speaker 4: these kids are just coming out of college or the

1132
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:38,080
Speaker 4: college game is a mess right now.

1133
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:39,120
Speaker 3: With eligibility and stuff.

1134
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:42,520
Speaker 4: But listen, Nick Madrigal out of you know, Oregon State,

1135
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:44,319
Speaker 4: that's going to be a big name that you're gonna

1136
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:44,839
Speaker 4: need to know about.

1137
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 3: Some of these college players coming out are going to

1138
00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:47,560
Speaker 3: have an effect on this game.

1139
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:49,239
Speaker 4: I can think of a lot of World Series runs

1140
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:51,400
Speaker 4: that came from kids that you know, got out of

1141
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:53,239
Speaker 4: the College World Series in June and had effect in

1142
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 4: September in October. So you know, I would research some

1143
00:45:56,600 --> 00:45:58,200
Speaker 4: of these names that are coming out of college, especially

1144
00:45:58,239 --> 00:45:58,839
Speaker 4: really high up.

1145
00:45:58,800 --> 00:46:00,360
Speaker 3: In the draft, because they're going to have effect on

1146
00:46:00,400 --> 00:46:03,360
Speaker 3: these playoff runts. Yeah, and I should say as always

1147
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:07,200
Speaker 3: will say this on every podcast almost shop around. That's

1148
00:46:07,239 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 3: why it's important to have multiple outs, especially with these

1149
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:11,360
Speaker 3: futures and you're not even tying up your money for

1150
00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:13,480
Speaker 3: as long but whenever your betting. Just if you have

1151
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 3: the more books you have, the more opportunity you have

1152
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:18,040
Speaker 3: for to get the best price, which is obviously one

1153
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:20,880
Speaker 3: of the keys to success in this gig. Yeah, I

1154
00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 3: think the most important thing is your depth. Just overall

1155
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:24,640
Speaker 3: you're gonna have I think a lot of you might

1156
00:46:24,640 --> 00:46:27,080
Speaker 3: have more injuries than the normal. You know, you might

1157
00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:29,400
Speaker 3: have a core, you might have a COVID outbreak. So

1158
00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:31,320
Speaker 3: I think depth is going to be important, especially on

1159
00:46:31,400 --> 00:46:33,759
Speaker 3: the pitching side. The schedule is more important than ever.

1160
00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:35,640
Speaker 3: And then having a GM that I think will go

1161
00:46:35,760 --> 00:46:36,920
Speaker 3: for it. I think that those are gonna be the

1162
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 3: differentiators in addition to just all the variants in a

1163
00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:42,879
Speaker 3: crazy sixty game season. So before we get out of here,

1164
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:45,400
Speaker 3: let's talk about you know, you have these some of

1165
00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:48,680
Speaker 3: the rule changes that we've mentioned, you have this shortened

1166
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:50,479
Speaker 3: spring training, and a lot of guys that I've talked

1167
00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:53,480
Speaker 3: to have said, and I agree, that the hitters will

1168
00:46:53,520 --> 00:46:55,640
Speaker 3: have the advantage early on versus the pitchers, who I

1169
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:59,000
Speaker 3: think take a little bit longer. Now, markets adjust very quickly.

1170
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 3: You've seen this rule changes in other sports. You might

1171
00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:04,000
Speaker 3: have an edge for like a day or two or

1172
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:06,800
Speaker 3: a week, like college basketball when they made their rule changes.

1173
00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:09,920
Speaker 3: So we're talking. You know, if there is a big advantage,

1174
00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:11,840
Speaker 3: the markets will adjust quickly. But for those you know,

1175
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:14,480
Speaker 3: the first week, the first couple of days, what are

1176
00:47:14,560 --> 00:47:16,760
Speaker 3: you looking at? Are you looking at more overs because

1177
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:19,600
Speaker 3: of that? Are you looking at something live? So z real?

1178
00:47:19,719 --> 00:47:20,440
Speaker 3: What are your thoughts there?

1179
00:47:21,080 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm probably gonna be targeting or I would say

1180
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:27,360
Speaker 5: projecting pitchers to go a fewer innings started here, Probably

1181
00:47:27,480 --> 00:47:29,759
Speaker 5: dock them each. I would have to look into the

1182
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:32,920
Speaker 5: research to see, but I would imagine I'll be docking

1183
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:35,800
Speaker 5: them each about an inning from their starts, you know,

1184
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:38,240
Speaker 5: projecting for about eighty pitches instead of one hundred pitches

1185
00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:40,680
Speaker 5: on a pitch count, So with that, you will have

1186
00:47:40,760 --> 00:47:43,200
Speaker 5: bullpens more involved. You'll have bullpen's getting more tired out

1187
00:47:43,280 --> 00:47:44,880
Speaker 5: over the course of the first week, just because it's

1188
00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:46,640
Speaker 5: going to be a key motive effect the first time

1189
00:47:46,680 --> 00:47:49,279
Speaker 5: through the rotation. And then after that, I think things

1190
00:47:49,320 --> 00:47:52,399
Speaker 5: should slowly start to level out and normalize and get

1191
00:47:52,480 --> 00:47:54,560
Speaker 5: back to you know what you would expect until we

1192
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:56,920
Speaker 5: get to the playoffs or closer to the playoffs, and

1193
00:47:56,920 --> 00:47:58,759
Speaker 5: then you may have guys going on four days rest

1194
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:01,320
Speaker 5: because you're three days rest because you are in a

1195
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:03,200
Speaker 5: tight race and you need to get into that playoff off.

1196
00:48:03,560 --> 00:48:06,040
Speaker 5: So there's gonna be a lot of very aggressive adjustments.

1197
00:48:06,480 --> 00:48:08,880
Speaker 5: But I think you do need to just on a

1198
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:12,600
Speaker 5: game by game basis, like consider things more aggressively than

1199
00:48:12,640 --> 00:48:14,120
Speaker 5: you would over the course of one hundred and sixty

1200
00:48:14,160 --> 00:48:17,400
Speaker 5: two game schedule generally. Last year, you know, I'm updating

1201
00:48:17,440 --> 00:48:19,719
Speaker 5: my models on a weekly basis, updating the inputs on

1202
00:48:19,760 --> 00:48:20,440
Speaker 5: a weekly basis.

1203
00:48:20,480 --> 00:48:22,080
Speaker 3: I don't know if I have that time this year.

1204
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:25,200
Speaker 5: I think this has to be like a daily process,

1205
00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:27,360
Speaker 5: and I'm gonna have to think more deeply on a

1206
00:48:27,360 --> 00:48:29,120
Speaker 5: game by gaming basis than I ever have before.

1207
00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:31,800
Speaker 4: What I'm going to be looking for earlier is pretty easy.

1208
00:48:32,280 --> 00:48:34,120
Speaker 4: I go to see spring training every year, and I

1209
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 4: understand that there are pitchers out there that during spring

1210
00:48:36,760 --> 00:48:38,800
Speaker 4: training they're working on a third or fourth pitch like

1211
00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:40,960
Speaker 4: they've never thrown a slider. They're trying to throw a slider.

1212
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:43,799
Speaker 4: That is not what's going to be happening between July

1213
00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:46,680
Speaker 4: first and July twenty second. These guys are coming out

1214
00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:48,480
Speaker 4: there to give their best stuff and get tuned up

1215
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:50,720
Speaker 4: for the season. So if I see you getting rocked

1216
00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:54,360
Speaker 4: on July sixteen, I'm probably and I never do some

1217
00:48:54,480 --> 00:48:57,279
Speaker 4: previous seasons, I don't care about spring training stats. I

1218
00:48:57,280 --> 00:48:59,879
Speaker 4: don't pay attention to them at all. Once the season start,

1219
00:49:00,560 --> 00:49:03,080
Speaker 4: it's game time. But for some reason, with a shortened

1220
00:49:03,120 --> 00:49:05,319
Speaker 4: spring training, I think that this is not is going

1221
00:49:05,400 --> 00:49:07,520
Speaker 4: to be more than an exhibition game. These guys that

1222
00:49:07,600 --> 00:49:09,319
Speaker 4: are trying to get their arms back in tune, they're

1223
00:49:09,320 --> 00:49:11,719
Speaker 4: really going to show you what they've got heading into

1224
00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 4: these couple of starts that they're going to have before

1225
00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:15,040
Speaker 4: the season starts. They're not out there just working on

1226
00:49:15,120 --> 00:49:17,560
Speaker 4: a third or fourth pitch. If you suck during July

1227
00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 4: versus twenty third, I'm going to fade your first couple

1228
00:49:20,120 --> 00:49:21,400
Speaker 4: starts until you make you pay for it.

1229
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:23,480
Speaker 5: You know, a lot of these guys haven't thrown off

1230
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:25,360
Speaker 5: a mountain in four or five months. It's not like

1231
00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:27,160
Speaker 5: having a basketball hoop in your back. I mean, even

1232
00:49:27,200 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 5: you honest at ten to Koopa doesn't have a basketball

1233
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 5: hoop at his house. So like if the NBA MVP

1234
00:49:32,160 --> 00:49:33,839
Speaker 5: doesn't have a hoop at his house, Like how many

1235
00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:36,160
Speaker 5: baseball players haven't picked up a back or thrown a

1236
00:49:36,200 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 5: baseball in so many months? Where they're just going to

1237
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:40,239
Speaker 5: be so out of shape, so out of tune with

1238
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:42,120
Speaker 5: their bodies, Like this is going to be a lot

1239
00:49:42,239 --> 00:49:45,960
Speaker 5: to just pick back up and start going again. Yeah,

1240
00:49:46,080 --> 00:49:48,200
Speaker 5: I mean, plus with the new rule change, when you

1241
00:49:48,280 --> 00:49:50,120
Speaker 5: have to come in as a reliever and face a

1242
00:49:50,200 --> 00:49:53,799
Speaker 5: minimum of three batters and early on it controls an

1243
00:49:53,800 --> 00:49:55,480
Speaker 5: issue and you come out, It's not like I can

1244
00:49:55,560 --> 00:49:57,759
Speaker 5: pull you if you walk two guys right.

1245
00:49:58,239 --> 00:50:02,399
Speaker 3: Also, I can't I can't have my lefty Specials to face.

1246
00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:05,800
Speaker 3: You know, their power left handed bat interesting things to

1247
00:50:05,840 --> 00:50:07,800
Speaker 3: think about, but I think that they lend itself to

1248
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:10,759
Speaker 3: overs early on. Again, the market's going to be as quickly.

1249
00:50:10,920 --> 00:50:13,240
Speaker 3: Just certain things to think about. One thing you mentioned,

1250
00:50:13,480 --> 00:50:14,440
Speaker 3: I don't know if it was on this pod. I

1251
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:17,960
Speaker 3: think it was offline about live overs. Potentially you want

1252
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:18,840
Speaker 3: to talk about that.

1253
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:21,680
Speaker 5: So they removed any They were going to institute limits

1254
00:50:21,719 --> 00:50:24,160
Speaker 5: on position players pitching at the beginning of the year.

1255
00:50:24,280 --> 00:50:26,840
Speaker 5: They've now pulled that out. So managers are going to

1256
00:50:26,880 --> 00:50:28,959
Speaker 5: be the need to be creative with how they rest

1257
00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:31,759
Speaker 5: their bulben arms, wanting their best guys to be to

1258
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:33,480
Speaker 5: go on any given day. So I do think is

1259
00:50:33,600 --> 00:50:36,120
Speaker 5: EC teams fall behind, They're going to give up on games.

1260
00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:37,640
Speaker 5: They're going to give up on days. They're going to

1261
00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:39,880
Speaker 5: pull their starters out and they're going to throw in

1262
00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:41,600
Speaker 5: a position player to pitch. They're going to throw their

1263
00:50:41,600 --> 00:50:43,359
Speaker 5: worst reliever to pitch they can send down to their

1264
00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:45,920
Speaker 5: taxi squad the following day. So don't be afraid to

1265
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:48,920
Speaker 5: target live team totals, target live spreads with teams were

1266
00:50:48,960 --> 00:50:51,680
Speaker 5: in blowouts. I think you're going to see four run

1267
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:53,839
Speaker 5: leads become eight run leads very quickly this year.

1268
00:50:54,120 --> 00:50:55,759
Speaker 4: And I think you're going to see some teams that

1269
00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:58,960
Speaker 4: thought they were World Series contenders fall about five games

1270
00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:01,279
Speaker 4: behind halfway through and they're just gonna give up on

1271
00:51:01,280 --> 00:51:03,000
Speaker 4: the rest of the season. I mean, I just it

1272
00:51:03,080 --> 00:51:05,120
Speaker 4: feels like a thing that the Red Sox can fall into.

1273
00:51:05,160 --> 00:51:07,640
Speaker 4: It feels like a thing that the Cubs could fall into,

1274
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:09,759
Speaker 4: and the Orioles. I mean, if they're ten games out

1275
00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:12,120
Speaker 4: twenty games in, teams are just gonna have a field

1276
00:51:12,160 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 4: day going up against them.

1277
00:51:13,360 --> 00:51:15,080
Speaker 3: I don't think there's a harder sport in the world

1278
00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:15,680
Speaker 3: in baseball.

1279
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:18,080
Speaker 5: Once you start pressing once, once you really feel that

1280
00:51:18,200 --> 00:51:21,760
Speaker 5: pressure and start pressing and feeling like the need to perform, man.

1281
00:51:21,600 --> 00:51:23,480
Speaker 3: Guys aren't gonna want to be there. They're gonna be like, what,

1282
00:51:23,640 --> 00:51:25,840
Speaker 3: you know, we're losing. Why am I here? I'm subjecting

1283
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:29,239
Speaker 3: myself to COVID life. There's no point. So there's gonna

1284
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:31,520
Speaker 3: have to be the potential for this to just fall apart.

1285
00:51:31,560 --> 00:51:33,840
Speaker 4: For certain we haven't heard of anything about Trout and

1286
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:35,799
Speaker 4: you know he's having his first child on the way.

1287
00:51:35,880 --> 00:51:37,480
Speaker 4: Is he's going to be allowed to go see There's

1288
00:51:37,520 --> 00:51:39,160
Speaker 4: a lot of it that's not just a Trout thing.

1289
00:51:39,239 --> 00:51:41,239
Speaker 4: That's every player thing, getting you know, and able to

1290
00:51:41,280 --> 00:51:43,440
Speaker 4: see your family, and if your team is losing an

1291
00:51:43,480 --> 00:51:45,399
Speaker 4: out of it, it's gonna be some big scoring games.

1292
00:51:45,719 --> 00:51:45,919
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1293
00:51:46,560 --> 00:51:49,200
Speaker 3: By the way, Angels, we haven't talked about, but they

1294
00:51:49,400 --> 00:51:52,560
Speaker 3: they obviously added rendown their offense. You know you have

1295
00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:57,200
Speaker 3: Otani back is it's really special if it stays healthy.

1296
00:51:57,280 --> 00:51:59,799
Speaker 3: But the pitching just isn't there. All right, I guess

1297
00:51:59,840 --> 00:52:02,239
Speaker 3: the last topic before we get out of here. Great stuff, guys,

1298
00:52:02,400 --> 00:52:06,880
Speaker 3: and look, everyone's like, uh MLB there, everyone's whining. I

1299
00:52:06,880 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 3: hate it. I'm not gonna watch. Everyone's gonna watch Man

1300
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:10,640
Speaker 3: and everyone. I'm excited as soon as it starts back up.

1301
00:52:10,680 --> 00:52:13,240
Speaker 3: The fevers right back, and everyone's gonna forget what happened,

1302
00:52:13,400 --> 00:52:15,359
Speaker 3: and we're we're just dying for sports to come back.

1303
00:52:15,560 --> 00:52:17,960
Speaker 3: It's actually starting a lot earlier spring, like spring training

1304
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:20,560
Speaker 3: is gonna start. Are you I'm not getting involved in

1305
00:52:20,640 --> 00:52:22,560
Speaker 3: spring training this year? Maybe after I see some I

1306
00:52:22,600 --> 00:52:25,120
Speaker 3: don't know what anything's gonna look like yet. I generally

1307
00:52:25,120 --> 00:52:28,200
Speaker 3: don't bet MLB spring training anyway. Timing is obviously different

1308
00:52:28,239 --> 00:52:30,160
Speaker 3: this year. Are you either of you getting involved in

1309
00:52:30,200 --> 00:52:33,680
Speaker 3: spring training? Yeah? We got KBO, MPB, CPPO. What are

1310
00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 3: you talking about? Man? I got I got plenty of

1311
00:52:35,239 --> 00:52:37,640
Speaker 3: competitive base water bet on it's opening day and.

1312
00:52:37,760 --> 00:52:39,320
Speaker 4: I've still got golf, and you may see me do

1313
00:52:39,440 --> 00:52:41,839
Speaker 4: some degenerate first five overs on the spring training games.

1314
00:52:41,880 --> 00:52:44,399
Speaker 3: So all right, so that that answer was yes from Colin,

1315
00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:46,279
Speaker 3: so get ready to see some of those come through

1316
00:52:46,440 --> 00:52:49,120
Speaker 3: on the action app. Thanks guys for joining me. Make

1317
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:50,760
Speaker 3: sure that we're gonna have a ton of baseball content

1318
00:52:50,880 --> 00:52:53,040
Speaker 3: coming out. I mean it's still a month away. We'll

1319
00:52:53,080 --> 00:52:55,520
Speaker 3: have some futures pieces and player props pieces, and then

1320
00:52:55,760 --> 00:52:59,920
Speaker 3: obviously we covering a ton of daily content once it's

1321
00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:02,320
Speaker 3: season starts back up. I'm excited. I think the season

1322
00:53:02,480 --> 00:53:05,640
Speaker 3: is going to be chaos. I'm team cast. Give me five,

1323
00:53:05,840 --> 00:53:08,400
Speaker 3: give me four way ties in divisions, give me all

1324
00:53:08,480 --> 00:53:11,920
Speaker 3: that I want extra games, and obviously the probability of

1325
00:53:11,960 --> 00:53:15,000
Speaker 3: that happening is higher in a sixty game in the season.

1326
00:53:15,239 --> 00:53:17,120
Speaker 3: We just have complete cast the end, so I'm rooting

1327
00:53:17,160 --> 00:53:19,360
Speaker 3: for that. I'm actually excited. I'm excited for all the

1328
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:23,920
Speaker 3: sports to come back. So thanks for listening. Thanks for subscribing,

1329
00:53:24,080 --> 00:53:27,360
Speaker 3: don't forget to subscribe. On subscribe, leave a review that

1330
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:30,960
Speaker 3: really helps. Tell a friend, tell an enemy, and we'll,

1331
00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:33,359
Speaker 3: like I said before, a lot of new episodes coming.

1332
00:53:33,480 --> 00:53:39,200
Speaker 3: NFL Fantasy College Football, Golf, All throughout July through the

1333
00:53:39,320 --> 00:53:42,680
Speaker 3: fall into The Winner. Stay safe, stay sane, and we'll

1334
00:53:42,719 --> 00:54:36,880
Speaker 3: catch you all later years. Peace Out. Yep, we're finished

1335
00:54:37,000 --> 00:54:37,320
Speaker 3: talking