WEBVTT - Surveillance: Conservatives Are Without Party, Says George Will 0:00:09.880 --> 0:00:12.960 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast and I'm Tom Keane 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:17.560 Jai Lely. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.480 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:27.319 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. The 0:00:27.400 --> 0:00:34.600 two presidents walking down to the cliffs above Omaha Beach 0:00:34.720 --> 0:00:38.839 and truly extraordinary. What is so amazing of this is 0:00:39.159 --> 0:00:42.280 those of us with a collective memory of Ronald Reagan 0:00:42.400 --> 0:00:46.640 in nine four and our time has moved on over 0:00:46.760 --> 0:00:51.440 forty You're truly extraordinary. Is the two presidents try to 0:00:51.560 --> 0:00:55.840 understand the sacrifice that was given. We'll continue to stay 0:00:55.880 --> 0:00:58.880 with us and joining us right now, I am absolutely 0:00:58.880 --> 0:01:00.920 honored to bring to you the Councel General of the 0:01:00.960 --> 0:01:06.240 United Kingdom to New York, Her Majesty's Trade Commissioner for 0:01:06.319 --> 0:01:10.360 North America and also the former Commissioners Singapore. At this moment, 0:01:10.480 --> 0:01:14.800 have Anthony Phillipson with us is amazing. To the east 0:01:14.840 --> 0:01:17.560 at Gold Beach where the British and of course Montgomery 0:01:18.280 --> 0:01:20.839 leading the way, explained to us what this moment also 0:01:20.959 --> 0:01:25.160 means for the British. Um if I may i mean, Tom, 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:27.760 the emotion in your voices, you talk about the fact 0:01:27.760 --> 0:01:29.920 that they're walking the way that the soldiers didn't go. 0:01:30.480 --> 0:01:33.040 I think has been a constant theme of the commemorations 0:01:33.080 --> 0:01:36.360 this week and also actually over the last semi five years. 0:01:36.360 --> 0:01:39.160 But the moment that really struck me was when Her 0:01:39.200 --> 0:01:42.240 Majesty the Queen was speaking in Portsmouth yesterday talking about 0:01:42.240 --> 0:01:44.440 the sacrifice of the wartime generation, which of course she 0:01:44.560 --> 0:01:46.720 was part of, as the President recognized in his remarks 0:01:46.720 --> 0:01:48.960 at the state banquet on Monday night, and she talked 0:01:48.960 --> 0:01:51.920 about the resilience and of course you know there's a 0:01:52.080 --> 0:01:54.240 much has been written, much i will be written about 0:01:54.280 --> 0:01:57.080 the the extraordinary special relationship between the UK and US, 0:01:57.400 --> 0:02:00.840 but also our other partners in that extraordinary endeavor seventy 0:02:00.840 --> 0:02:03.640 five years ago today. Um, you know, we've we've seen 0:02:03.640 --> 0:02:05.760 the films, we've read the books, we've all watched Band 0:02:05.760 --> 0:02:08.560 of Brothers. But it's I think just important to remember 0:02:08.760 --> 0:02:11.120 what exactly happened on that day and the process that 0:02:11.160 --> 0:02:13.520 it began, of the liberation of Europe. And that's what 0:02:13.560 --> 0:02:15.760 you're watching there on the screen is George will says 0:02:15.800 --> 0:02:19.040 in his new book, quoting Abraham Lincoln then and other 0:02:19.080 --> 0:02:23.440 Worthies and then times slips away. That's really what we 0:02:23.480 --> 0:02:28.359 see her at Normandy today, the ninety five commemoration. Well, 0:02:28.880 --> 0:02:30.280 but this, I think is the important thing, as the 0:02:30.360 --> 0:02:32.760 Queen said, is that you know that those soldiers who 0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:37.240 are there today, they're ninety four ninety five. I tweeted 0:02:37.320 --> 0:02:39.600 last night about an extraordinary moment watching a ninety five 0:02:39.680 --> 0:02:43.760 year old former paratrooper repeating the jump with the gentleman 0:02:43.760 --> 0:02:46.800 on the back of the journelan. Yeah, he's will he 0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:49.560 be this? This generation is passing away. But this is 0:02:49.560 --> 0:02:51.440 why it's so important we tell their story, whether it's 0:02:51.440 --> 0:02:53.640 in the books or by commemorating the events as we're 0:02:53.639 --> 0:02:57.320 seeing now, because the people who lived it are inevitably 0:02:57.360 --> 0:03:00.720 and extorably passing away, so we must the memory live. 0:03:01.120 --> 0:03:04.640 Rick Atkinson out with this wonderful first volume on uh 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:07.040 the War of the Rebellion. This is where the colonies 0:03:07.120 --> 0:03:10.200 left the United Kingdom a number of years ago, and 0:03:10.240 --> 0:03:13.280 you look at the shared history here which goes towards 0:03:13.440 --> 0:03:17.480 your true expertise in trade relations. What is the media 0:03:17.560 --> 0:03:21.760 getting wrong now about the tone of coming post Broxit 0:03:22.200 --> 0:03:25.799 UK US trade discussions? Well, I think the way I 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:28.160 would look at it. I honestly, I think we need 0:03:28.160 --> 0:03:30.120 to get behind the headlines. We need to sort of 0:03:30.760 --> 0:03:33.640 we need to talk about the extraordinary relationship that we 0:03:33.680 --> 0:03:35.520 already have between the UK and US, whether it's in 0:03:35.600 --> 0:03:39.160 terms of trade, investment, people to people, links um. And 0:03:39.160 --> 0:03:40.760 then we need to look to the future. Then we 0:03:40.760 --> 0:03:42.080 need to think about what are we going to do 0:03:42.120 --> 0:03:44.000 with this relationship. How are the UK and US going 0:03:44.040 --> 0:03:47.000 to continue to build that trans atlantic corridor as we 0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:50.400 leave the EU. It will be part of our global engagement, 0:03:50.480 --> 0:03:52.520 both with the EU, with the US with other parts 0:03:52.520 --> 0:03:55.440 of the world. I think we have a shared commitment 0:03:55.560 --> 0:03:59.280 to a system of global rules that are free and fair, 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:01.080 as the Prime Minister the President talked about in their 0:04:01.080 --> 0:04:04.839 business round table said James's Palace on Tuesday morning. That's 0:04:04.840 --> 0:04:06.440 the agenda that we need to get to. That's the 0:04:06.480 --> 0:04:07.960 substance of it, and that's what we need to start 0:04:07.960 --> 0:04:10.640 to map. Let us talk Elizabeth the First and Elizabeth 0:04:10.680 --> 0:04:15.320 the Second. Elizabeth Second is a successful or Cardian experience 0:04:15.440 --> 0:04:19.200 of a global trade, a multilateral world, and all that 0:04:19.240 --> 0:04:22.239 we learned out of World War to Elizabeth the First 0:04:22.320 --> 0:04:25.640 was a mercantilism of another time in place. How do 0:04:25.680 --> 0:04:28.880 we get the dialogue on a bilateral basis and on 0:04:28.920 --> 0:04:32.560 a multilateral basis back to the good of the Atlantic 0:04:32.640 --> 0:04:36.559 Charter and forward. I think you start there. You start 0:04:36.560 --> 0:04:38.600 with the principles. You start with the values that underpend 0:04:38.600 --> 0:04:40.880 our relationship, not just the UK US but the others 0:04:40.920 --> 0:04:43.760 who are at their commemoration today and we're in Port 0:04:43.800 --> 0:04:46.120 Smith yesterday. You think about the world that we want 0:04:46.120 --> 0:04:48.160 to create, both the world that we want to live in, 0:04:48.200 --> 0:04:50.960 the world that you know, whether it's climate change or 0:04:51.040 --> 0:04:54.640 how we deal with increasing sort of global challenges around resources. 0:04:54.920 --> 0:04:57.200 And we we also talk about global peace and security 0:04:57.200 --> 0:04:59.680 Council General. If I could interrupt, what is so important 0:04:59.800 --> 0:05:02.360 here is a belief of the President that for the 0:05:02.440 --> 0:05:06.239 US to win, we must take unit trade from Europe. 0:05:06.680 --> 0:05:09.640 Where a guy like you, within your modern history at 0:05:09.680 --> 0:05:14.679 Oxford knows that new trade can be additive upon present trade. 0:05:15.240 --> 0:05:18.400 How do we get to a trade agreement where good 0:05:18.560 --> 0:05:24.320 new American UK trade is additive upon EU UK trade. 0:05:25.000 --> 0:05:26.440 I think the way we do it is we set 0:05:26.480 --> 0:05:28.760 out a sort of a comprehensive, holistic agenda. If you 0:05:28.760 --> 0:05:31.960 look at the Trade and Investment Working Group that Secretary 0:05:31.960 --> 0:05:34.640 State Liam Fox and investor Bob Lightheiser have been pursuing 0:05:34.640 --> 0:05:37.760 since the summer two than seventeen. It includes talking about 0:05:37.760 --> 0:05:40.680 our bilateral relationship, but it also talks about what we 0:05:40.680 --> 0:05:42.720 can do to help our sames in the here and now, 0:05:42.760 --> 0:05:44.360 and it also talks about what we can do together 0:05:44.400 --> 0:05:46.840 to address challenges. We need to take that into those 0:05:46.839 --> 0:05:49.080 glob before and keep talking about what's what makes our 0:05:49.080 --> 0:05:54.680 lives better. Council General, thank you so much. So this 0:05:54.800 --> 0:05:56.919 is with the trade on top, Tom, Mexico in a 0:05:56.960 --> 0:05:59.880 really tough spot, in a tough spot, and let's say 0:05:59.760 --> 0:06:02.480 I would just kill the good sharing on your line today. 0:06:02.480 --> 0:06:06.160 I'm sure however in the coming days, John, but this 0:06:06.600 --> 0:06:08.400 you go right to the point, which is this is 0:06:08.440 --> 0:06:11.919 a complexity of any given country. It happens to be 0:06:12.000 --> 0:06:15.000 on our border. But some of the simplistic phrases that 0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:19.480 we're hearing in analysis or just just wonderfully naive about 0:06:19.520 --> 0:06:21.919 the complexities of any given country. So do you just 0:06:22.000 --> 0:06:24.520 assume that we go five percent Monday and escalate as 0:06:24.520 --> 0:06:26.520 the months progress. Let's bring a Neil sharing and joined 0:06:26.560 --> 0:06:29.600 us here in London. Capital Economics Group Chief Economy so 0:06:29.680 --> 0:06:33.080 near is that the assumption at Capital Economics, that my 0:06:33.120 --> 0:06:35.200 working assumption in all of this now is that we 0:06:35.560 --> 0:06:37.280 I think if you'd have asked me that three months ago, 0:06:37.320 --> 0:06:38.760 I would have said that we'll find a way through, 0:06:38.800 --> 0:06:40.760 both on the Mexican side and the China side. There'll 0:06:40.760 --> 0:06:43.480 be a way through these talks, and we'll get an 0:06:43.480 --> 0:06:45.440 impasse if you like. I don't think that's happening now. 0:06:45.480 --> 0:06:47.600 I think these trade at tension is going to continue 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:51.279 to escalate. We're in a new era of globalization and 0:06:51.360 --> 0:06:54.840 we're in a new era of growing protectionism. The one 0:06:54.880 --> 0:06:57.200 caveat to that, I think is that Mexico may fold. 0:06:57.400 --> 0:06:59.920 Mexico has far more to lose in this than China. 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:04.000 It does, it exports the US GDP, and as you 0:07:04.080 --> 0:07:07.080 rightly touched upon, it has its own domestic, both political 0:07:07.040 --> 0:07:10.840 and economic challenges to particularly pem X. Oil production internal 0:07:10.880 --> 0:07:14.320 declined despite the previous government government efforts to try and 0:07:14.400 --> 0:07:17.120 reverse that. So I think pem X really has to 0:07:17.160 --> 0:07:19.920 give something. It has to do everything its Mexico has 0:07:19.960 --> 0:07:21.440 to do everything it can to try and head these 0:07:21.440 --> 0:07:25.360 tariffs off. I suspect they'll my hunches, they'll find a 0:07:25.360 --> 0:07:26.880 way to try and do little hunches that we could 0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:30.360 avoid five percent months US US China actually not least 0:07:30.360 --> 0:07:32.480 because for the US it's a bigger deal as well. Right, 0:07:32.520 --> 0:07:35.280 we're just getting into the phase where US companies are 0:07:35.280 --> 0:07:40.880 thinking about their investment plans for twenty election year. Are 0:07:40.920 --> 0:07:42.960 they going to be investing if there's a big tariffs 0:07:43.000 --> 0:07:45.240 going on effects and all those supply chains back and 0:07:45.280 --> 0:07:47.520 forth over the US Mexico order. I think the US 0:07:47.560 --> 0:07:50.120 has perhaps a bit more to lose us China much 0:07:50.160 --> 0:07:53.160 different scenario, much different scenarios. And we've all seen the 0:07:53.200 --> 0:07:56.280 briefings that show, to use a fancy word, they use 0:07:56.320 --> 0:08:00.520 a capital economics genormousness of the Mexico you were, relation 0:08:00.720 --> 0:08:03.320 is the technical term we all know, in particularly out 0:08:03.360 --> 0:08:08.840 of our academics, that tariff increase is a nonlinear exercise. 0:08:09.520 --> 0:08:15.200 Explain the reality of going five, ten, fIF and tariffs. 0:08:15.400 --> 0:08:18.640 Where does that impenge on a trade system? Well, you're 0:08:18.640 --> 0:08:20.600 write that. I think the key point is is exactly 0:08:20.600 --> 0:08:23.520 that that it's nonlinear. And for US at the longer 0:08:23.560 --> 0:08:26.960 these tariffs and particularly this uncertainty persists, the greater the 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:30.280 cross starts to build, and they building an expert investment 0:08:30.320 --> 0:08:33.200 ground zero. I'm not sure where they grounds to zero, 0:08:33.240 --> 0:08:36.000 but certainly investment in particular sectors is going to be 0:08:36.080 --> 0:08:39.959 moth board. If you're an auto producer right now, you're 0:08:40.000 --> 0:08:45.960 thinking about your supply chains criss crossing the US Mexican border, semiconductors, electronics, 0:08:45.960 --> 0:08:48.480 consumer goods, all these type of things. I think that's 0:08:48.480 --> 0:08:50.679 where it hits. I mean, does it hit healthcare, Does 0:08:50.679 --> 0:08:52.920 it hit energy? Not so much, no, But I think 0:08:52.920 --> 0:08:55.680 in particular sectors it has a really big effect. And 0:08:55.720 --> 0:08:57.719 it's not the tariffs that are doing the damage. It's 0:08:57.720 --> 0:09:02.160 the uncertainty and the second un effects pticular financial conditions 0:09:02.200 --> 0:09:04.880 doing the damage. It's a difficult question. And now Michael 0:09:04.920 --> 0:09:08.160 McKee has asked this question of several f WEBC policymakers, 0:09:08.160 --> 0:09:11.480 and Muhammad Alarion asked the question this morning too. Con 0:09:11.600 --> 0:09:15.720 FED rate cuts achieve the Fed's goals. If this is 0:09:15.720 --> 0:09:18.520 the environment you describe right now to rate cuts help, 0:09:19.920 --> 0:09:22.200 I'm not sure they necessarily do. I mean, they certainly 0:09:22.200 --> 0:09:24.480 don't do any harm. I don't think at this stage 0:09:24.520 --> 0:09:26.560 unless you're going to get into a world in which 0:09:26.600 --> 0:09:30.000 is going to reinflate financial bubbles and cause instability further 0:09:30.040 --> 0:09:32.839 down their own and we're not there yet. The key 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:34.800 challenge and the key issue from my side and now, 0:09:35.040 --> 0:09:37.520 is what's happening on the supply side of the U 0:09:37.600 --> 0:09:40.560 S economy. This increase in productivity growth that we've seen 0:09:40.559 --> 0:09:43.120 over the past twelve months, is that for real? Is 0:09:43.120 --> 0:09:46.360 it a late cycle blip? Is thinking structural? My gut 0:09:46.480 --> 0:09:48.680 says that it's a late cycle blip. But you know 0:09:48.720 --> 0:09:51.240 who knows this. This is stuff that economists really tried 0:09:51.280 --> 0:09:54.520 to wrestle with and it's quite difficult, but be You're 0:09:54.600 --> 0:09:56.640 right to the extent that tariffs do damage on the 0:09:56.640 --> 0:10:01.280 supply side of the global economy. Moneture policy has nothing 0:10:01.280 --> 0:10:02.640 to do with that. So let's get your thoughts on 0:10:02.679 --> 0:10:05.079 monty policy in Europe. The ECB on tour today, they're 0:10:05.120 --> 0:10:08.280 in Lithuania. We get that decision and around forty minutes 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:12.079 time interest rate guidance currently no change. Nobody thinks the 0:10:12.120 --> 0:10:14.640 e CP is going to hike this year anyway. What 0:10:14.720 --> 0:10:16.679 can they do today of anything at all? Well, I 0:10:16.679 --> 0:10:19.200 think there's two things. One is they can reinforce that guidance, 0:10:19.200 --> 0:10:21.760 perhaps to shift to a slightly more Davish language. The 0:10:21.840 --> 0:10:24.520 second thing is around tell truths, what the terms and 0:10:24.559 --> 0:10:27.280 conditions that will be attached to those. I think we're 0:10:27.280 --> 0:10:30.040 moving into a world in which, pretty quickly next year, 0:10:30.080 --> 0:10:32.360 the ECB is starting to have to think again about 0:10:32.400 --> 0:10:36.040 more quantitative easy restarted. What do they do to do 0:10:36.200 --> 0:10:41.760 more quantitative easy, Whether they've still got room to purchase 0:10:41.840 --> 0:10:45.240 soffering debt within their limits. So this is a call 0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:47.120 from A bien, A B and M are out there 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:51.880 with this call. They think the ECB restarts Q. They've 0:10:51.920 --> 0:10:53.720 got a big call out there there. I say Capital 0:10:53.720 --> 0:10:55.800 Economics that we've had this call for the last three months. 0:10:55.880 --> 0:11:01.560 We think early said they've got enough room to restart 0:11:01.559 --> 0:11:04.640 it on a modest scale, just doing softeign debt. And 0:11:04.679 --> 0:11:07.760 then you're right, Tom, there's corporate debt, there's equities, there's 0:11:07.800 --> 0:11:09.679 e t f s. The e c B are going 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:11.640 to be dragged, kicking and screaming into that stuff. But 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:13.800 I think there's enough space that they can do more 0:11:13.920 --> 0:11:15.960 softwing debt. But buying equity, I mean, I've talked to 0:11:16.000 --> 0:11:18.440 Rick Reader of black Rock about this. Who actually thinks 0:11:18.559 --> 0:11:20.120 who actually thinks it could be a good idea to 0:11:20.160 --> 0:11:22.559 buy equity Because if you look down the capital stack 0:11:22.679 --> 0:11:25.800 right now, the dead of these companies is not the problem. 0:11:26.080 --> 0:11:29.480 It's the cost of the equity, right. The trouble is 0:11:29.520 --> 0:11:33.200 that you're dealing with a we've seen this from Japan. Actually, 0:11:33.400 --> 0:11:35.319 once you start to get into that stage as a 0:11:35.400 --> 0:11:38.040 que you've got to be dragged kicking on that. And 0:11:38.040 --> 0:11:42.000 the ECB is incredibly conservative bodies. We know. I still 0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:44.160 think there's room they can they can do more softwing 0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:48.439 debt purchase capitalism. That is getting kicked and screaming all 0:11:48.480 --> 0:11:54.239 the way down through Frankfort and through Tokyo through Washington. 0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:58.000 Thank you so much. Sounds so depressing out No, I'm 0:11:58.000 --> 0:12:00.559 not depressed. We're dashing it, Reddy and we'll be there 0:12:00.559 --> 0:12:02.480 for job today tomorrow in New York and throw it 0:12:02.559 --> 0:12:06.240 to be back. Over the decades, there have been any 0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:10.040 number of George will books. Um I find interesting. At 0:12:10.080 --> 0:12:13.280 one point years ago, discussion of how he would fish 0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:16.560 with one of his daughters, I find interesting. The great 0:12:16.600 --> 0:12:19.480 George Will quote something to do with adults, do not 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:22.600 make children, Children make adults. But then there is a 0:12:22.640 --> 0:12:24.880 book that is a tour to force. He has finally 0:12:24.920 --> 0:12:27.880 delivered that in a seventy eighth year. It comes off 0:12:27.920 --> 0:12:31.480 his graduate work at Princeton of a few years back, 0:12:31.559 --> 0:12:35.679 and it is the conservative sensibility. I will not mince words, folks. 0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:40.640 Robin Rodgings book The Third Pillar and Simon Johnson's wonderful 0:12:40.640 --> 0:12:43.440 book Jump Starting America are my books of the summer. 0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:47.160 This will be one of my two books of the year, 0:12:47.200 --> 0:12:50.560 the Conservative Sensibility. George Will. Thank you for joining Paul 0:12:50.559 --> 0:12:54.839 Sweeney in New York and I mean London. George. I 0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:58.040 look at the conservative sensibility and I've got to go 0:12:58.200 --> 0:13:00.400 right to the immediate politics. And we'll just gous this 0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:04.200 in the half hour. You are brutal, is always we 0:13:04.240 --> 0:13:10.120 can dignify our present disputes among small persons of little learning. 0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:16.240 George Will, how did we get here? Well, would say, 0:13:16.280 --> 0:13:20.199 this is what democracy looks like. Uh. But the fact 0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:24.080 that it's untidy doesn't mean that it isn't dignified. Also, 0:13:24.760 --> 0:13:26.960 you know, the woman making her maiden speech in the 0:13:27.000 --> 0:13:30.960 House of Commons recently in Britain said democracies like sex. 0:13:31.000 --> 0:13:34.680 If it isn't messy, you're not doing it right. And uh, George, 0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:38.160 this is radio. Be careful. I know this is anything 0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:43.560 goes though, George. I look at the conservative sensibility I 0:13:43.600 --> 0:13:45.880 know Paul wants to jump in here as well. The 0:13:45.960 --> 0:13:48.520 reason it's one of my books of the year is 0:13:48.559 --> 0:13:52.040 because you've had the courage to write not just for conservatives, 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:55.000 but those of the debris of Woodrow Wilson. You're right 0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:58.360 for progressives, You're right for the liberals of another time 0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:02.520 and place. What can aggresses in liberals learned from the 0:14:02.559 --> 0:14:06.280 conservative sensibility? They can go back to nineteen sixty four 0:14:06.320 --> 0:14:09.439 when I cast my first vote for president for Barry Goldwater, 0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:13.160 to the memory of whom the book is dedicated, and 0:14:13.440 --> 0:14:16.880 progressive should look at the numbers in nineteen sixty four 0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:20.520 of the American people said they trusted the federal government 0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:22.960 to do the right thing all the time, or almost 0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:27.600 all the right time. Today that numbers under as the 0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:33.360 government's pretensions have grown, its prestige has plummeted. And progressives 0:14:33.400 --> 0:14:36.520 who want to use the government for large enterprises, I'll 0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:39.120 dispute with them about the virtue of that, but that's 0:14:39.160 --> 0:14:42.600 their stand. They should be as concerned as I am 0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:46.040 about the fact that government today seems to have lost 0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:50.520 all sense of its proper scope and actual competence. So George, 0:14:51.680 --> 0:14:54.720 just give us a state of where you think conservatism 0:14:55.000 --> 0:14:58.720 is today in America? Well, frankly, it's it's an orphan 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:03.040 without a political party, but an idea, a set of 0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:08.880 ideas with a distinguished pedigree that derives momentum from Hamilton 0:15:09.160 --> 0:15:14.800 and Jefferson and particularly Madisone and Lincoln above all, doesn't 0:15:14.840 --> 0:15:18.360 go disappear because the party that at one point was 0:15:18.520 --> 0:15:22.920 its vessel has become cracked a little bit. Uh. The 0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:26.880 ideas are still valid. They have to be argued for, however, 0:15:27.720 --> 0:15:31.360 and that argument will continue until the Republican Party comes 0:15:31.400 --> 0:15:33.960 to its senses, or until someone else comes along to 0:15:34.920 --> 0:15:37.440 to be the representative of that persuasion. Well, how did 0:15:37.520 --> 0:15:40.720 we get to that point where the conservative conservative movement 0:15:40.760 --> 0:15:43.400 in the US has been effectively orphaned by the party, 0:15:43.400 --> 0:15:46.880 by the Republican partyw do we get here? Well? Mr Trump, 0:15:46.920 --> 0:15:50.040 when he ran for president, said pointedly, it's not called 0:15:50.040 --> 0:15:53.320 the Conservative Party, It's called the Republican Party. And he 0:15:53.400 --> 0:15:56.840 set out to say that much of what Republicans have believed, 0:15:56.920 --> 0:16:00.280 particularly in free trade, most dramatically, uh, he said, by 0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:03.640 the way, you don't believe that anymore, and appallingly most 0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:06.800 of them said, okay, we don't believe that anymore, they 0:16:07.080 --> 0:16:10.160 sort of nibble at the edges of presidential discretion and 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:14.640 applying tarrorists, which means raising taxes on Americans unilaterally without 0:16:14.640 --> 0:16:18.280 any letter hindrance from Congress. But basically the Party has 0:16:18.360 --> 0:16:23.400 become against medicine's great assumptions, a teammate of the president. 0:16:24.400 --> 0:16:28.560 What Madison had in mind was an equilibrium among equal 0:16:28.840 --> 0:16:32.440 and rival risk institutions, with their own sense of dignity 0:16:32.440 --> 0:16:34.440 and their own sense of purpose and their own sense 0:16:34.480 --> 0:16:38.880 of independence. That has has gone away largely because of 0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:41.840 the legacy of Woodrow Wilson and the Progressives. The Progressives 0:16:41.840 --> 0:16:46.120 were amazingly forthright at the turn of the twentieth century. 0:16:46.120 --> 0:16:49.720 In rejecting the Founders, Woodrow Wilson said, don't read the 0:16:49.720 --> 0:16:52.800 first two paragraphs of the Declaration of Independence. It's mere 0:16:52.840 --> 0:16:57.640 fourth of July rhetoric. The Founder's view was, first come rights, 0:16:57.680 --> 0:17:01.360 then comes government. That government exists to indep language of 0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:07.000 the Declaration, secure our rights. The Progressives that no, actually 0:17:07.160 --> 0:17:12.440 governments give rights as dispensations. They are approved areas of 0:17:13.000 --> 0:17:17.080 autonomy that the government likes. Whether it's George Will the 0:17:17.119 --> 0:17:20.359 new book the Conservative sensibility as a triumph It's written 0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:23.040 off of his graduate paper of just a few years 0:17:23.040 --> 0:17:26.520 ago at Princeton. It is exceptionally thoughtful. I'm gonna say 0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:29.560 it one more time. It is not only the obvious 0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:32.520 book for conservatives lost in the wilderness, it is a 0:17:32.600 --> 0:17:36.320 must read for those lost in the middle of America's politics, 0:17:36.640 --> 0:17:41.720 and also for liberals and enthusiastic progressives as well. George Weill, 0:17:41.720 --> 0:17:43.840 I'm gonna go back to the doom and gloom that 0:17:43.920 --> 0:17:47.240 George Wills associated with Paul You're gonna love this. Our 0:17:47.280 --> 0:17:51.280 listeners in Boston are gonna love this. Many thoughtful Americans 0:17:51.320 --> 0:17:55.000 worry that the Republic peaked a little early and has 0:17:55.040 --> 0:18:00.399 been trundling downhill since Bunker Hill. How to conservatives, George 0:18:00.440 --> 0:18:03.200 will lose the gloom that had all ended a few 0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:06.840 years ago. Well, my my book is in part explicitly 0:18:06.880 --> 0:18:12.720 a summons to pessimism. But pessimism is not fatalism. By pessimism, 0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:15.800 I means there's so many ways things can go wrong. 0:18:16.800 --> 0:18:21.240 The democracy and free markets are not the default position 0:18:21.280 --> 0:18:24.800 of the human race. They are complex social structures and 0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:28.160 government structures at the paradox. I notice, say, but LEAs 0:18:28.200 --> 0:18:33.040 a fair as a government project, It requires courts, contracts, arbitration, 0:18:34.119 --> 0:18:39.760 laws against fraud, information dispersal, all the rest. So the 0:18:39.840 --> 0:18:43.240 simple truth is that this is a complex system we're 0:18:43.280 --> 0:18:46.520 trying to defend. My book is a particularly chapter on 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:51.720 political economy is as robust a defensive capitalism as you'll find. 0:18:51.760 --> 0:18:55.520 This side of Hyak and Hik, of course figures largely 0:18:55.640 --> 0:18:58.960 in my in my book. Uh, my view is that 0:18:59.160 --> 0:19:02.960 capitalism does not just make us better off, which it 0:19:03.000 --> 0:19:06.960 manifestly does, it makes us better that the argument between 0:19:07.000 --> 0:19:09.840 Hamilton and Jefferson was an argument about what kind of 0:19:09.960 --> 0:19:12.760 people we would be. I want to swing the discussion 0:19:12.800 --> 0:19:15.080 forward Georgia, because they know Paul Sweeney wants to get 0:19:15.119 --> 0:19:18.320 into the clear and present with our present president. Let's 0:19:18.359 --> 0:19:21.840 swing forward, folks to my ute. Look, look, there's this 0:19:21.920 --> 0:19:26.160 particular fringe, and there one fundamental problem is they simply 0:19:26.200 --> 0:19:30.320 never accepted the New Deal, Boynihan of New York, And 0:19:30.359 --> 0:19:34.000 there's a whole tone in America that's never gotten over 0:19:34.200 --> 0:19:37.879 f DR and that's the raison detra of certainly a 0:19:37.920 --> 0:19:41.840 new Republican party. Well, there's no question that the New 0:19:41.840 --> 0:19:46.200 Deal is an accomplished fact. It's interesting, however, that Ronald Reagan, 0:19:46.400 --> 0:19:49.600 who came of age during the New Deal, never assaulted 0:19:49.640 --> 0:19:52.600 New Deal institutions or approaches to government. It was the 0:19:52.640 --> 0:19:56.080 great society that he had in his sights. The New 0:19:56.119 --> 0:20:00.080 Deals signature achievement with social security, which is some the 0:20:00.160 --> 0:20:03.520 government knows how to do. It identifies an eligible population 0:20:03.600 --> 0:20:07.680 and mails out checks to it. That's fine. When government 0:20:07.720 --> 0:20:09.879 goes wrong is when it says it's going to deliver 0:20:10.240 --> 0:20:15.639 model cities or head starts or meaningful work, when it 0:20:16.160 --> 0:20:22.080 undertakes two minutely regulate us to paradise. Government is a 0:20:22.119 --> 0:20:28.600 blunt instrument, a necessary instrument, capable of much good, but blunt. Nonetheless, George, 0:20:28.600 --> 0:20:32.520 are you surprised or that the Republican Party, some of 0:20:32.560 --> 0:20:35.560 the conservative members of the Republican Party haven't maybe pushed 0:20:35.560 --> 0:20:38.439 back on some of the current presidents maybe questionable actions, 0:20:38.480 --> 0:20:42.240 actions that may not be in the conservative venaculars, such 0:20:42.240 --> 0:20:44.240 as free, free trader. Are you surprised we haven't gotten 0:20:44.600 --> 0:20:47.160 the Republican Party has been so silent. I guess it's 0:20:47.160 --> 0:20:50.960 been silent, with a few honorable exceptions. Uh. Senator Department 0:20:51.000 --> 0:20:54.080 of Ohio says, all right, if we're going to pretend 0:20:54.280 --> 0:20:58.280 that imported Volkswagen's or a national security threat. Shouldn't we 0:20:58.320 --> 0:21:01.880 have the Defense to Apartment rather than the Commerce Department 0:21:02.800 --> 0:21:07.920 established the criterion for a national security threat? Uh. Senator 0:21:08.080 --> 0:21:11.480 to me has been pushing back of Pennsylvania Republicans, saying, 0:21:11.480 --> 0:21:14.040 we have over the years, we have spun off far 0:21:14.119 --> 0:21:18.520 too much power, investing presidents of both parties from congresses 0:21:18.560 --> 0:21:22.280 of both parties with an enormous discretion that enables them 0:21:22.320 --> 0:21:25.960 to do essentially legislative things such as tariffs, which are 0:21:26.080 --> 0:21:30.480 raising taxes unilaterally. George Will with us. I've got time, 0:21:30.520 --> 0:21:34.520 George for only one more question. John writes in and says, 0:21:34.640 --> 0:21:38.400 I really don't care about the conservative sensibility. Please ask 0:21:38.520 --> 0:21:44.000 Mr Will about the baseball sensibility. George Will, Cobby, how 0:21:44.080 --> 0:21:48.320 do we save baseball? Where you've got to do something 0:21:48.400 --> 0:21:51.720 to cure the following? In two thousand and eighteen season, 0:21:51.800 --> 0:21:54.879 for the first time in history, there were more strikeouts. 0:21:54.960 --> 0:21:58.760 Thank you. The ball is put in play, that is 0:21:58.800 --> 0:22:01.720 not walk strike out. Her home run put in play 0:22:01.760 --> 0:22:05.640 once every four minutes. You know. Red Smith once said 0:22:05.640 --> 0:22:09.920 baseball's doll only to the doll. Unfortunately, baseball is becoming 0:22:10.000 --> 0:22:12.840 dull because it's becoming one dimensional. We've got to find 0:22:13.080 --> 0:22:15.919 I think markets work. I think there will be a 0:22:16.040 --> 0:22:19.359 demand for Rod carews and Wade bugs and Tony Gwin's 0:22:19.560 --> 0:22:22.320 see that and the demand will be met. Paul. Do 0:22:22.359 --> 0:22:24.440 you see how his voice changes when he gets away 0:22:24.440 --> 0:22:27.879 from Madison and with Roe Wilson. I only write about 0:22:27.920 --> 0:22:31.080 politics to support my baseball have it. Well, here's what 0:22:31.119 --> 0:22:33.520 I'm gonna do. I'm in London. I'm gonna put out 0:22:33.520 --> 0:22:36.040 one of my books of the year, The Conservative Sensibility. 0:22:36.359 --> 0:22:39.359