1 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast and I'm Tom Keane 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Jai Lely. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,319 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. The 5 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:34,600 Speaker 1: two presidents walking down to the cliffs above Omaha Beach 6 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:38,839 Speaker 1: and truly extraordinary. What is so amazing of this is 7 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 1: those of us with a collective memory of Ronald Reagan 8 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:46,640 Speaker 1: in nine four and our time has moved on over 9 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:51,440 Speaker 1: forty You're truly extraordinary. Is the two presidents try to 10 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 1: understand the sacrifice that was given. We'll continue to stay 11 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 1: with us and joining us right now, I am absolutely 12 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:00,920 Speaker 1: honored to bring to you the Councel General of the 13 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 1: United Kingdom to New York, Her Majesty's Trade Commissioner for 14 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 1: North America and also the former Commissioners Singapore. At this moment, 15 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 1: have Anthony Phillipson with us is amazing. To the east 16 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 1: at Gold Beach where the British and of course Montgomery 17 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:20,839 Speaker 1: leading the way, explained to us what this moment also 18 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 1: means for the British. Um if I may i mean, Tom, 19 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:27,760 Speaker 1: the emotion in your voices, you talk about the fact 20 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 1: that they're walking the way that the soldiers didn't go. 21 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:33,040 Speaker 1: I think has been a constant theme of the commemorations 22 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:36,360 Speaker 1: this week and also actually over the last semi five years. 23 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 1: But the moment that really struck me was when Her 24 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 1: Majesty the Queen was speaking in Portsmouth yesterday talking about 25 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:44,440 Speaker 1: the sacrifice of the wartime generation, which of course she 26 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 1: was part of, as the President recognized in his remarks 27 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:48,960 Speaker 1: at the state banquet on Monday night, and she talked 28 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 1: about the resilience and of course you know there's a 29 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 1: much has been written, much i will be written about 30 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 1: the the extraordinary special relationship between the UK and US, 31 00:01:57,400 --> 00:02:00,840 Speaker 1: but also our other partners in that extraordinary endeavor seventy 32 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:03,640 Speaker 1: five years ago today. Um, you know, we've we've seen 33 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 1: the films, we've read the books, we've all watched Band 34 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:08,560 Speaker 1: of Brothers. But it's I think just important to remember 35 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 1: what exactly happened on that day and the process that 36 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:13,520 Speaker 1: it began, of the liberation of Europe. And that's what 37 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 1: you're watching there on the screen is George will says 38 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 1: in his new book, quoting Abraham Lincoln then and other 39 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 1: Worthies and then times slips away. That's really what we 40 00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:28,359 Speaker 1: see her at Normandy today, the ninety five commemoration. Well, 41 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 1: but this, I think is the important thing, as the 42 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:32,760 Speaker 1: Queen said, is that you know that those soldiers who 43 00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:37,240 Speaker 1: are there today, they're ninety four ninety five. I tweeted 44 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 1: last night about an extraordinary moment watching a ninety five 45 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 1: year old former paratrooper repeating the jump with the gentleman 46 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:46,800 Speaker 1: on the back of the journelan. Yeah, he's will he 47 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 1: be this? This generation is passing away. But this is 48 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 1: why it's so important we tell their story, whether it's 49 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:53,640 Speaker 1: in the books or by commemorating the events as we're 50 00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 1: seeing now, because the people who lived it are inevitably 51 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 1: and extorably passing away, so we must the memory live. 52 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:04,640 Speaker 1: Rick Atkinson out with this wonderful first volume on uh 53 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 1: the War of the Rebellion. This is where the colonies 54 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 1: left the United Kingdom a number of years ago, and 55 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:13,280 Speaker 1: you look at the shared history here which goes towards 56 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 1: your true expertise in trade relations. What is the media 57 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 1: getting wrong now about the tone of coming post Broxit 58 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:25,799 Speaker 1: UK US trade discussions? Well, I think the way I 59 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 1: would look at it. I honestly, I think we need 60 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:30,120 Speaker 1: to get behind the headlines. We need to sort of 61 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:33,640 Speaker 1: we need to talk about the extraordinary relationship that we 62 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 1: already have between the UK and US, whether it's in 63 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 1: terms of trade, investment, people to people, links um. And 64 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: then we need to look to the future. Then we 65 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 1: need to think about what are we going to do 66 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 1: with this relationship. How are the UK and US going 67 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:47,000 Speaker 1: to continue to build that trans atlantic corridor as we 68 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 1: leave the EU. It will be part of our global engagement, 69 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 1: both with the EU, with the US with other parts 70 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 1: of the world. I think we have a shared commitment 71 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 1: to a system of global rules that are free and fair, 72 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 1: as the Prime Minister the President talked about in their 73 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:04,839 Speaker 1: business round table said James's Palace on Tuesday morning. That's 74 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 1: the agenda that we need to get to. That's the 75 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 1: substance of it, and that's what we need to start 76 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:10,640 Speaker 1: to map. Let us talk Elizabeth the First and Elizabeth 77 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 1: the Second. Elizabeth Second is a successful or Cardian experience 78 00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 1: of a global trade, a multilateral world, and all that 79 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:22,239 Speaker 1: we learned out of World War to Elizabeth the First 80 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 1: was a mercantilism of another time in place. How do 81 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 1: we get the dialogue on a bilateral basis and on 82 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 1: a multilateral basis back to the good of the Atlantic 83 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:36,559 Speaker 1: Charter and forward. I think you start there. You start 84 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:38,600 Speaker 1: with the principles. You start with the values that underpend 85 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 1: our relationship, not just the UK US but the others 86 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 1: who are at their commemoration today and we're in Port 87 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 1: Smith yesterday. You think about the world that we want 88 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:48,160 Speaker 1: to create, both the world that we want to live in, 89 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 1: the world that you know, whether it's climate change or 90 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 1: how we deal with increasing sort of global challenges around resources. 91 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:57,200 Speaker 1: And we we also talk about global peace and security 92 00:04:57,200 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 1: Council General. If I could interrupt, what is so important 93 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:02,360 Speaker 1: here is a belief of the President that for the 94 00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:06,239 Speaker 1: US to win, we must take unit trade from Europe. 95 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 1: Where a guy like you, within your modern history at 96 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:14,679 Speaker 1: Oxford knows that new trade can be additive upon present trade. 97 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 1: How do we get to a trade agreement where good 98 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 1: new American UK trade is additive upon EU UK trade. 99 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 1: I think the way we do it is we set 100 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:28,760 Speaker 1: out a sort of a comprehensive, holistic agenda. If you 101 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:31,960 Speaker 1: look at the Trade and Investment Working Group that Secretary 102 00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:34,640 Speaker 1: State Liam Fox and investor Bob Lightheiser have been pursuing 103 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 1: since the summer two than seventeen. It includes talking about 104 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:40,680 Speaker 1: our bilateral relationship, but it also talks about what we 105 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:42,720 Speaker 1: can do to help our sames in the here and now, 106 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 1: and it also talks about what we can do together 107 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:46,840 Speaker 1: to address challenges. We need to take that into those 108 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 1: glob before and keep talking about what's what makes our 109 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:54,680 Speaker 1: lives better. Council General, thank you so much. So this 110 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:56,919 Speaker 1: is with the trade on top, Tom, Mexico in a 111 00:05:56,960 --> 00:05:59,880 Speaker 1: really tough spot, in a tough spot, and let's say 112 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:02,480 Speaker 1: I would just kill the good sharing on your line today. 113 00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:06,160 Speaker 1: I'm sure however in the coming days, John, but this 114 00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 1: you go right to the point, which is this is 115 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:11,919 Speaker 1: a complexity of any given country. It happens to be 116 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:15,000 Speaker 1: on our border. But some of the simplistic phrases that 117 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:19,480 Speaker 1: we're hearing in analysis or just just wonderfully naive about 118 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:21,919 Speaker 1: the complexities of any given country. So do you just 119 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:24,520 Speaker 1: assume that we go five percent Monday and escalate as 120 00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:26,520 Speaker 1: the months progress. Let's bring a Neil sharing and joined 121 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:29,600 Speaker 1: us here in London. Capital Economics Group Chief Economy so 122 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 1: near is that the assumption at Capital Economics, that my 123 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:35,200 Speaker 1: working assumption in all of this now is that we 124 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:37,280 Speaker 1: I think if you'd have asked me that three months ago, 125 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 1: I would have said that we'll find a way through, 126 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 1: both on the Mexican side and the China side. There'll 127 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:43,480 Speaker 1: be a way through these talks, and we'll get an 128 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 1: impasse if you like. I don't think that's happening now. 129 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:47,600 Speaker 1: I think these trade at tension is going to continue 130 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:51,279 Speaker 1: to escalate. We're in a new era of globalization and 131 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:54,840 Speaker 1: we're in a new era of growing protectionism. The one 132 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 1: caveat to that, I think is that Mexico may fold. 133 00:06:57,400 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 1: Mexico has far more to lose in this than China. 134 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 1: It does, it exports the US GDP, and as you 135 00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:07,080 Speaker 1: rightly touched upon, it has its own domestic, both political 136 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 1: and economic challenges to particularly pem X. Oil production internal 137 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 1: declined despite the previous government government efforts to try and 138 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 1: reverse that. So I think pem X really has to 139 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 1: give something. It has to do everything its Mexico has 140 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:21,440 Speaker 1: to do everything it can to try and head these 141 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 1: tariffs off. I suspect they'll my hunches, they'll find a 142 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 1: way to try and do little hunches that we could 143 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 1: avoid five percent months US US China actually not least 144 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 1: because for the US it's a bigger deal as well. Right, 145 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 1: we're just getting into the phase where US companies are 146 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 1: thinking about their investment plans for twenty election year. Are 147 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 1: they going to be investing if there's a big tariffs 148 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 1: going on effects and all those supply chains back and 149 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 1: forth over the US Mexico order. I think the US 150 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 1: has perhaps a bit more to lose us China much 151 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 1: different scenario, much different scenarios. And we've all seen the 152 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 1: briefings that show, to use a fancy word, they use 153 00:07:56,320 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 1: a capital economics genormousness of the Mexico you were, relation 154 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 1: is the technical term we all know, in particularly out 155 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:08,840 Speaker 1: of our academics, that tariff increase is a nonlinear exercise. 156 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 1: Explain the reality of going five, ten, fIF and tariffs. 157 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:18,640 Speaker 1: Where does that impenge on a trade system? Well, you're 158 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 1: write that. I think the key point is is exactly 159 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 1: that that it's nonlinear. And for US at the longer 160 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 1: these tariffs and particularly this uncertainty persists, the greater the 161 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: cross starts to build, and they building an expert investment 162 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:33,200 Speaker 1: ground zero. I'm not sure where they grounds to zero, 163 00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:36,000 Speaker 1: but certainly investment in particular sectors is going to be 164 00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:39,959 Speaker 1: moth board. If you're an auto producer right now, you're 165 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:45,960 Speaker 1: thinking about your supply chains criss crossing the US Mexican border, semiconductors, electronics, 166 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 1: consumer goods, all these type of things. I think that's 167 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:50,679 Speaker 1: where it hits. I mean, does it hit healthcare, Does 168 00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 1: it hit energy? Not so much, no, But I think 169 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:55,680 Speaker 1: in particular sectors it has a really big effect. And 170 00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:57,719 Speaker 1: it's not the tariffs that are doing the damage. It's 171 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:02,160 Speaker 1: the uncertainty and the second un effects pticular financial conditions 172 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:04,880 Speaker 1: doing the damage. It's a difficult question. And now Michael 173 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:08,160 Speaker 1: McKee has asked this question of several f WEBC policymakers, 174 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 1: and Muhammad Alarion asked the question this morning too. Con 175 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:15,720 Speaker 1: FED rate cuts achieve the Fed's goals. If this is 176 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:18,520 Speaker 1: the environment you describe right now to rate cuts help, 177 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:22,200 Speaker 1: I'm not sure they necessarily do. I mean, they certainly 178 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:24,480 Speaker 1: don't do any harm. I don't think at this stage 179 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:26,560 Speaker 1: unless you're going to get into a world in which 180 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 1: is going to reinflate financial bubbles and cause instability further 181 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:32,839 Speaker 1: down their own and we're not there yet. The key 182 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 1: challenge and the key issue from my side and now, 183 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:37,520 Speaker 1: is what's happening on the supply side of the U 184 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 1: S economy. This increase in productivity growth that we've seen 185 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 1: over the past twelve months, is that for real? Is 186 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 1: it a late cycle blip? Is thinking structural? My gut 187 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:48,680 Speaker 1: says that it's a late cycle blip. But you know 188 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:51,240 Speaker 1: who knows this. This is stuff that economists really tried 189 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 1: to wrestle with and it's quite difficult, but be You're 190 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 1: right to the extent that tariffs do damage on the 191 00:09:56,640 --> 00:10:01,280 Speaker 1: supply side of the global economy. Moneture policy has nothing 192 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 1: to do with that. So let's get your thoughts on 193 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:05,079 Speaker 1: monty policy in Europe. The ECB on tour today, they're 194 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:08,280 Speaker 1: in Lithuania. We get that decision and around forty minutes 195 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:12,079 Speaker 1: time interest rate guidance currently no change. Nobody thinks the 196 00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:14,640 Speaker 1: e CP is going to hike this year anyway. What 197 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:16,679 Speaker 1: can they do today of anything at all? Well, I 198 00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:19,200 Speaker 1: think there's two things. One is they can reinforce that guidance, 199 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 1: perhaps to shift to a slightly more Davish language. The 200 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:24,520 Speaker 1: second thing is around tell truths, what the terms and 201 00:10:24,559 --> 00:10:27,280 Speaker 1: conditions that will be attached to those. I think we're 202 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 1: moving into a world in which, pretty quickly next year, 203 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 1: the ECB is starting to have to think again about 204 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 1: more quantitative easy restarted. What do they do to do 205 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 1: more quantitative easy, Whether they've still got room to purchase 206 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 1: soffering debt within their limits. So this is a call 207 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 1: from A bien, A B and M are out there 208 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:51,880 Speaker 1: with this call. They think the ECB restarts Q. They've 209 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 1: got a big call out there there. I say Capital 210 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:55,800 Speaker 1: Economics that we've had this call for the last three months. 211 00:10:55,880 --> 00:11:01,560 Speaker 1: We think early said they've got enough room to restart 212 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:04,640 Speaker 1: it on a modest scale, just doing softeign debt. And 213 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:07,760 Speaker 1: then you're right, Tom, there's corporate debt, there's equities, there's 214 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:09,679 Speaker 1: e t f s. The e c B are going 215 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 1: to be dragged, kicking and screaming into that stuff. But 216 00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:13,800 Speaker 1: I think there's enough space that they can do more 217 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:15,960 Speaker 1: softwing debt. But buying equity, I mean, I've talked to 218 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:18,440 Speaker 1: Rick Reader of black Rock about this. Who actually thinks 219 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 1: who actually thinks it could be a good idea to 220 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:22,559 Speaker 1: buy equity Because if you look down the capital stack 221 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:25,800 Speaker 1: right now, the dead of these companies is not the problem. 222 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 1: It's the cost of the equity, right. The trouble is 223 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:33,200 Speaker 1: that you're dealing with a we've seen this from Japan. Actually, 224 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:35,319 Speaker 1: once you start to get into that stage as a 225 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:38,040 Speaker 1: que you've got to be dragged kicking on that. And 226 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 1: the ECB is incredibly conservative bodies. We know. I still 227 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 1: think there's room they can they can do more softwing 228 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:48,439 Speaker 1: debt purchase capitalism. That is getting kicked and screaming all 229 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:54,239 Speaker 1: the way down through Frankfort and through Tokyo through Washington. 230 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:58,000 Speaker 1: Thank you so much. Sounds so depressing out No, I'm 231 00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:00,559 Speaker 1: not depressed. We're dashing it, Reddy and we'll be there 232 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 1: for job today tomorrow in New York and throw it 233 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:06,240 Speaker 1: to be back. Over the decades, there have been any 234 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:10,040 Speaker 1: number of George will books. Um I find interesting. At 235 00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 1: one point years ago, discussion of how he would fish 236 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:16,560 Speaker 1: with one of his daughters, I find interesting. The great 237 00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:19,480 Speaker 1: George Will quote something to do with adults, do not 238 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:22,600 Speaker 1: make children, Children make adults. But then there is a 239 00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 1: book that is a tour to force. He has finally 240 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 1: delivered that in a seventy eighth year. It comes off 241 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:31,480 Speaker 1: his graduate work at Princeton of a few years back, 242 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:35,679 Speaker 1: and it is the conservative sensibility. I will not mince words, folks. 243 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:40,640 Speaker 1: Robin Rodgings book The Third Pillar and Simon Johnson's wonderful 244 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:43,440 Speaker 1: book Jump Starting America are my books of the summer. 245 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,160 Speaker 1: This will be one of my two books of the year, 246 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:50,560 Speaker 1: the Conservative Sensibility. George Will. Thank you for joining Paul 247 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:54,839 Speaker 1: Sweeney in New York and I mean London. George. I 248 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 1: look at the conservative sensibility and I've got to go 249 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 1: right to the immediate politics. And we'll just gous this 250 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:04,200 Speaker 1: in the half hour. You are brutal, is always we 251 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 1: can dignify our present disputes among small persons of little learning. 252 00:13:10,640 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 1: George Will, how did we get here? Well, would say, 253 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:20,199 Speaker 1: this is what democracy looks like. Uh. But the fact 254 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:24,080 Speaker 1: that it's untidy doesn't mean that it isn't dignified. Also, 255 00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:26,960 Speaker 1: you know, the woman making her maiden speech in the 256 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:30,960 Speaker 1: House of Commons recently in Britain said democracies like sex. 257 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:34,680 Speaker 1: If it isn't messy, you're not doing it right. And uh, George, 258 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 1: this is radio. Be careful. I know this is anything 259 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:43,560 Speaker 1: goes though, George. I look at the conservative sensibility I 260 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:45,880 Speaker 1: know Paul wants to jump in here as well. The 261 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 1: reason it's one of my books of the year is 262 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:52,040 Speaker 1: because you've had the courage to write not just for conservatives, 263 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:55,000 Speaker 1: but those of the debris of Woodrow Wilson. You're right 264 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 1: for progressives, You're right for the liberals of another time 265 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:02,520 Speaker 1: and place. What can aggresses in liberals learned from the 266 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 1: conservative sensibility? They can go back to nineteen sixty four 267 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:09,439 Speaker 1: when I cast my first vote for president for Barry Goldwater, 268 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 1: to the memory of whom the book is dedicated, and 269 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 1: progressive should look at the numbers in nineteen sixty four 270 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:20,520 Speaker 1: of the American people said they trusted the federal government 271 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:22,960 Speaker 1: to do the right thing all the time, or almost 272 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 1: all the right time. Today that numbers under as the 273 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 1: government's pretensions have grown, its prestige has plummeted. And progressives 274 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 1: who want to use the government for large enterprises, I'll 275 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 1: dispute with them about the virtue of that, but that's 276 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 1: their stand. They should be as concerned as I am 277 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 1: about the fact that government today seems to have lost 278 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 1: all sense of its proper scope and actual competence. So George, 279 00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 1: just give us a state of where you think conservatism 280 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:58,720 Speaker 1: is today in America? Well, frankly, it's it's an orphan 281 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:03,040 Speaker 1: without a political party, but an idea, a set of 282 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:08,880 Speaker 1: ideas with a distinguished pedigree that derives momentum from Hamilton 283 00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 1: and Jefferson and particularly Madisone and Lincoln above all, doesn't 284 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:18,360 Speaker 1: go disappear because the party that at one point was 285 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 1: its vessel has become cracked a little bit. Uh. The 286 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:26,880 Speaker 1: ideas are still valid. They have to be argued for, however, 287 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 1: and that argument will continue until the Republican Party comes 288 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 1: to its senses, or until someone else comes along to 289 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 1: to be the representative of that persuasion. Well, how did 290 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 1: we get to that point where the conservative conservative movement 291 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:43,400 Speaker 1: in the US has been effectively orphaned by the party, 292 00:15:43,400 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 1: by the Republican partyw do we get here? Well? Mr Trump, 293 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 1: when he ran for president, said pointedly, it's not called 294 00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 1: the Conservative Party, It's called the Republican Party. And he 295 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:56,840 Speaker 1: set out to say that much of what Republicans have believed, 296 00:15:56,920 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 1: particularly in free trade, most dramatically, uh, he said, by 297 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:03,640 Speaker 1: the way, you don't believe that anymore, and appallingly most 298 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 1: of them said, okay, we don't believe that anymore, they 299 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:10,160 Speaker 1: sort of nibble at the edges of presidential discretion and 300 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 1: applying tarrorists, which means raising taxes on Americans unilaterally without 301 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:18,280 Speaker 1: any letter hindrance from Congress. But basically the Party has 302 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 1: become against medicine's great assumptions, a teammate of the president. 303 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:28,560 Speaker 1: What Madison had in mind was an equilibrium among equal 304 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 1: and rival risk institutions, with their own sense of dignity 305 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 1: and their own sense of purpose and their own sense 306 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 1: of independence. That has has gone away largely because of 307 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 1: the legacy of Woodrow Wilson and the Progressives. The Progressives 308 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:46,120 Speaker 1: were amazingly forthright at the turn of the twentieth century. 309 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 1: In rejecting the Founders, Woodrow Wilson said, don't read the 310 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:52,800 Speaker 1: first two paragraphs of the Declaration of Independence. It's mere 311 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:57,640 Speaker 1: fourth of July rhetoric. The Founder's view was, first come rights, 312 00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:01,360 Speaker 1: then comes government. That government exists to indep language of 313 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:07,000 Speaker 1: the Declaration, secure our rights. The Progressives that no, actually 314 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:12,440 Speaker 1: governments give rights as dispensations. They are approved areas of 315 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 1: autonomy that the government likes. Whether it's George Will the 316 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:20,359 Speaker 1: new book the Conservative sensibility as a triumph It's written 317 00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 1: off of his graduate paper of just a few years 318 00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 1: ago at Princeton. It is exceptionally thoughtful. I'm gonna say 319 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 1: it one more time. It is not only the obvious 320 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 1: book for conservatives lost in the wilderness, it is a 321 00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:36,320 Speaker 1: must read for those lost in the middle of America's politics, 322 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:41,720 Speaker 1: and also for liberals and enthusiastic progressives as well. George Weill, 323 00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go back to the doom and gloom that 324 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 1: George Wills associated with Paul You're gonna love this. Our 325 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:51,280 Speaker 1: listeners in Boston are gonna love this. Many thoughtful Americans 326 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:55,000 Speaker 1: worry that the Republic peaked a little early and has 327 00:17:55,040 --> 00:18:00,399 Speaker 1: been trundling downhill since Bunker Hill. How to conservatives, George 328 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:03,200 Speaker 1: will lose the gloom that had all ended a few 329 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 1: years ago. Well, my my book is in part explicitly 330 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:12,720 Speaker 1: a summons to pessimism. But pessimism is not fatalism. By pessimism, 331 00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:15,800 Speaker 1: I means there's so many ways things can go wrong. 332 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:21,240 Speaker 1: The democracy and free markets are not the default position 333 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:24,800 Speaker 1: of the human race. They are complex social structures and 334 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:28,160 Speaker 1: government structures at the paradox. I notice, say, but LEAs 335 00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:33,040 Speaker 1: a fair as a government project, It requires courts, contracts, arbitration, 336 00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 1: laws against fraud, information dispersal, all the rest. So the 337 00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:43,240 Speaker 1: simple truth is that this is a complex system we're 338 00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 1: trying to defend. My book is a particularly chapter on 339 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:51,720 Speaker 1: political economy is as robust a defensive capitalism as you'll find. 340 00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:55,520 Speaker 1: This side of Hyak and Hik, of course figures largely 341 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:58,960 Speaker 1: in my in my book. Uh, my view is that 342 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:02,960 Speaker 1: capitalism does not just make us better off, which it 343 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:06,960 Speaker 1: manifestly does, it makes us better that the argument between 344 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 1: Hamilton and Jefferson was an argument about what kind of 345 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:12,760 Speaker 1: people we would be. I want to swing the discussion 346 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 1: forward Georgia, because they know Paul Sweeney wants to get 347 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:18,320 Speaker 1: into the clear and present with our present president. Let's 348 00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 1: swing forward, folks to my ute. Look, look, there's this 349 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:26,160 Speaker 1: particular fringe, and there one fundamental problem is they simply 350 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:30,320 Speaker 1: never accepted the New Deal, Boynihan of New York, And 351 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:34,000 Speaker 1: there's a whole tone in America that's never gotten over 352 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:37,879 Speaker 1: f DR and that's the raison detra of certainly a 353 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:41,840 Speaker 1: new Republican party. Well, there's no question that the New 354 00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:46,200 Speaker 1: Deal is an accomplished fact. It's interesting, however, that Ronald Reagan, 355 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:49,600 Speaker 1: who came of age during the New Deal, never assaulted 356 00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 1: New Deal institutions or approaches to government. It was the 357 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 1: great society that he had in his sights. The New 358 00:19:56,119 --> 00:20:00,080 Speaker 1: Deals signature achievement with social security, which is some the 359 00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 1: government knows how to do. It identifies an eligible population 360 00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:07,680 Speaker 1: and mails out checks to it. That's fine. When government 361 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:09,879 Speaker 1: goes wrong is when it says it's going to deliver 362 00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:15,639 Speaker 1: model cities or head starts or meaningful work, when it 363 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 1: undertakes two minutely regulate us to paradise. Government is a 364 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:28,600 Speaker 1: blunt instrument, a necessary instrument, capable of much good, but blunt. Nonetheless, George, 365 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 1: are you surprised or that the Republican Party, some of 366 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 1: the conservative members of the Republican Party haven't maybe pushed 367 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:38,439 Speaker 1: back on some of the current presidents maybe questionable actions, 368 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 1: actions that may not be in the conservative venaculars, such 369 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:44,240 Speaker 1: as free, free trader. Are you surprised we haven't gotten 370 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:47,160 Speaker 1: the Republican Party has been so silent. I guess it's 371 00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:50,960 Speaker 1: been silent, with a few honorable exceptions. Uh. Senator Department 372 00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:54,080 Speaker 1: of Ohio says, all right, if we're going to pretend 373 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:58,280 Speaker 1: that imported Volkswagen's or a national security threat. Shouldn't we 374 00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:01,880 Speaker 1: have the Defense to Apartment rather than the Commerce Department 375 00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:07,920 Speaker 1: established the criterion for a national security threat? Uh. Senator 376 00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 1: to me has been pushing back of Pennsylvania Republicans, saying, 377 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 1: we have over the years, we have spun off far 378 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 1: too much power, investing presidents of both parties from congresses 379 00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:22,280 Speaker 1: of both parties with an enormous discretion that enables them 380 00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:25,960 Speaker 1: to do essentially legislative things such as tariffs, which are 381 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:30,480 Speaker 1: raising taxes unilaterally. George Will with us. I've got time, 382 00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 1: George for only one more question. John writes in and says, 383 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:38,400 Speaker 1: I really don't care about the conservative sensibility. Please ask 384 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 1: Mr Will about the baseball sensibility. George Will, Cobby, how 385 00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:48,320 Speaker 1: do we save baseball? Where you've got to do something 386 00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 1: to cure the following? In two thousand and eighteen season, 387 00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:54,879 Speaker 1: for the first time in history, there were more strikeouts. 388 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:58,760 Speaker 1: Thank you. The ball is put in play, that is 389 00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:01,720 Speaker 1: not walk strike out. Her home run put in play 390 00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:05,640 Speaker 1: once every four minutes. You know. Red Smith once said 391 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:09,920 Speaker 1: baseball's doll only to the doll. Unfortunately, baseball is becoming 392 00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 1: dull because it's becoming one dimensional. We've got to find 393 00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,919 Speaker 1: I think markets work. I think there will be a 394 00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:19,359 Speaker 1: demand for Rod carews and Wade bugs and Tony Gwin's 395 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 1: see that and the demand will be met. Paul. Do 396 00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:24,440 Speaker 1: you see how his voice changes when he gets away 397 00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,879 Speaker 1: from Madison and with Roe Wilson. I only write about 398 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:31,080 Speaker 1: politics to support my baseball have it. Well, here's what 399 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 1: I'm gonna do. I'm in London. I'm gonna put out 400 00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:36,040 Speaker 1: one of my books of the year, The Conservative Sensibility. 401 00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:39,359 Speaker 1: And when that writing with George Will in the Washington Post, 402 00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:42,480 Speaker 1: there was a tour to force article a few oh 403 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:45,960 Speaker 1: five six seven days ago on the strikeout to Walks Ratio. 404 00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 1: Just an absolutely spectacular effort. And we'll get that out 405 00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:52,399 Speaker 1: as well. George Will, of course with the Washington Post 406 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,320 Speaker 1: and many many books over the many decades, and I 407 00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:59,119 Speaker 1: could just simply say that The Conservative Sensibility is a 408 00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:05,120 Speaker 1: tour to thank you so much. Thank you this morning. Well, Tom, 409 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 1: you know, one of the things we've seen since the 410 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:10,639 Speaker 1: financial crisis is the big New York investment banks getting 411 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:14,200 Speaker 1: more and more into the commercial banking side of the business, 412 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,760 Speaker 1: the retail side of the business. If you will interesting 413 00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,960 Speaker 1: ubs just recently is out there now offering ultra high 414 00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:23,200 Speaker 1: savings rates to try to attract some cash from the 415 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:27,080 Speaker 1: listing clients. Exactly. It's kind of like an assumed toast toaster. 416 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:30,960 Speaker 1: I'm not sure gonna toaster toaster. So we would talk 417 00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:33,080 Speaker 1: when we talk in vestment banks time, we always talk 418 00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:36,640 Speaker 1: to Shanelli Bassik Bloomberg News investment banking reporters. So what's 419 00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:40,879 Speaker 1: UVUS doing here, Snelli? Their ultra high savings rate. You know, 420 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:43,639 Speaker 1: in the US particularly, there are a lot smaller than 421 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:45,560 Speaker 1: a lot of you know, the Morgan Stanleys, the Goldman 422 00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:47,600 Speaker 1: Saxes of the world. So they're saying, at least through 423 00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:49,480 Speaker 1: the end of September, we're gonna offer you a rate 424 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 1: that's higher so long as you have ten thousand dollars 425 00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,560 Speaker 1: to put in our bank and away from another one. 426 00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:57,159 Speaker 1: And so they're definitely trying to lure money away from 427 00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:00,760 Speaker 1: the big US contenders. They need to do this, frankly, 428 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:02,800 Speaker 1: Um they have a lot of growth in Asia, but 429 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,320 Speaker 1: the results in the America's were flat in the last quarter, 430 00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:09,080 Speaker 1: and so it's something that if they don't do it, 431 00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:11,440 Speaker 1: they're going to have a harder time one's volatility kicks 432 00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:14,840 Speaker 1: in and people start saving instead. So it's it's interesting, 433 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:17,919 Speaker 1: am I right? In kind of my view? That goshly 434 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:22,159 Speaker 1: even Goldman Sachs. You know, the blue chip corporate investment 435 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:25,600 Speaker 1: bank is getting in more and more into the retail 436 00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,480 Speaker 1: side of individual investor side of the business. What's the 437 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:30,520 Speaker 1: trend here? You know, one's got to wonder if this 438 00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:34,119 Speaker 1: is a very late cycle behavior right their biggest corporate 439 00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:36,240 Speaker 1: clients right now. Um, and you know we were just 440 00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:38,320 Speaker 1: talking about this. I've been doing invest in banking meetings 441 00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:41,160 Speaker 1: all week and everyone's pretty bored. There's not a lot 442 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,040 Speaker 1: of big ticket deals going on, and the ones that 443 00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,919 Speaker 1: are happening are either tied up for a year in 444 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,800 Speaker 1: a regulatory hurdle or falling apart. And so when you 445 00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,840 Speaker 1: know big corporations are under a lot of pressure here 446 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,280 Speaker 1: and maybe deal making, especially this big ticket deal making, 447 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:58,360 Speaker 1: is slowing down, then can you lean on the individual 448 00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,600 Speaker 1: investor and then you know, mom and pop investors really 449 00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:06,440 Speaker 1: to make money for the bank. Yeah, okay, so I'll 450 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 1: go there, but you know, I hit her like you 451 00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:12,280 Speaker 1: you go out to the Hampton Coffee Company to pick 452 00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:16,280 Speaker 1: up a cup of coffee or John's Pancake House, Montauk, wherever, 453 00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:19,760 Speaker 1: you know the power players like Hugo Schnali. What's the 454 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:24,040 Speaker 1: mood into the summer among Wall Street banking? I don't 455 00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:28,360 Speaker 1: see it? Is it there? Like I was saying, pretty bored. 456 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:30,840 Speaker 1: I'm sure that you know. It's funny you mentioned the hampa, 457 00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,840 Speaker 1: But board means nobody makes any money, right, nobody makes 458 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,680 Speaker 1: any money. But you know, while you're not making money, 459 00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:38,639 Speaker 1: you kind of wait for a better September ahead. And 460 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:42,280 Speaker 1: things are slower in the summer. People are taking time off. 461 00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,840 Speaker 1: Ever since Memorial Day turn, things were just slower, right, 462 00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:47,920 Speaker 1: I was writing four stories a day, and now it's 463 00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:51,040 Speaker 1: just a lot less going on. Well, within that is 464 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:52,920 Speaker 1: bank merges, I mean Commerce bank, and I n G. 465 00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 1: I know that's off your beat, but I guess they're 466 00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:57,640 Speaker 1: picking up the thrust and we've got to figure out 467 00:25:57,640 --> 00:25:59,600 Speaker 1: what to do with Deutsche Bank. Very importantly, Paul, I 468 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 1: missed this. Deutsche Bank had rallied this morning now five 469 00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:08,400 Speaker 1: point nine nine euros. I did not see that. You're 470 00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:10,919 Speaker 1: on that six euro watch for long. Well, that may 471 00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:12,800 Speaker 1: be because Shnelli showed up to get in front of 472 00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:15,280 Speaker 1: the mic. I don't know Deutsche Bank self. What is 473 00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:17,919 Speaker 1: the mood in Wall Street? Come on, you're you're wired 474 00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:21,120 Speaker 1: of this totally. What are the young turks of Wall 475 00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:23,840 Speaker 1: Street doing right now? It's funny the young Turks as 476 00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:26,040 Speaker 1: with a bunch of young Turks yesterday, which is a 477 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:30,159 Speaker 1: very exciting thing. Uh Again, not a whole lot going on. 478 00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:34,160 Speaker 1: You know, you think about how much bad news there is, right, 479 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,439 Speaker 1: we were talking about deals falling apart too. But the 480 00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:38,479 Speaker 1: hedge fund industry, you know, we're still waiting for some 481 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,000 Speaker 1: big launches, but there hasn't been a whole lot going 482 00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:44,280 Speaker 1: on in that industry either. I p O world, right, 483 00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:47,800 Speaker 1: we're finally seeing Uber hit above its I p O prices. 484 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:49,640 Speaker 1: So in the I p O world is where there's 485 00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:52,639 Speaker 1: some real excitement going on and people are ready to 486 00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:54,560 Speaker 1: kind of be in every New York hotel at these 487 00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,679 Speaker 1: road shows coming up in some really sexy ones, right, 488 00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:02,360 Speaker 1: peloton Um, Endeavor. There's some really exciting names that make 489 00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,399 Speaker 1: for really great stories, but but also frankly something you 490 00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:08,320 Speaker 1: just to talk about. It's just interesting. Yesterday we had 491 00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:10,639 Speaker 1: Mark Schaeffer, the co head of Global m and A 492 00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:13,800 Speaker 1: for a City Group in talking about the business. He 493 00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 1: was speaking at the Bloomberg Panel yesterday investment panel in 494 00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,360 Speaker 1: New York. He was saying that, you know, the year 495 00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:23,320 Speaker 1: to date M and A volumes are down pretty significantly 496 00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:28,879 Speaker 1: after January personage to one digit. Ye, and you're interesting, 497 00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:31,360 Speaker 1: it's you know, I was just wondering, are they claiming 498 00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:33,160 Speaker 1: when you talk to M and A bankers, are they saying, oh, 499 00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:35,680 Speaker 1: it's just the trade uncertainty or it's slowing economy. What's 500 00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:38,360 Speaker 1: kind of you know, the excuses this time around. It's 501 00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:41,159 Speaker 1: a little bit of both and volatility. Let's not discount it. 502 00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:42,719 Speaker 1: I know it's nowhere where it was at the end 503 00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:44,639 Speaker 1: of last year, but it is a little higher this 504 00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:46,919 Speaker 1: year so far. Um, you don't want to pay for 505 00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:48,760 Speaker 1: something when you don't know what the price is really 506 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,600 Speaker 1: gonna end up on, especially for Stofferson deals. Um, you 507 00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:55,000 Speaker 1: know you're mentioning a Deutsche Bank and Commerce Bank. The 508 00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:58,800 Speaker 1: prospect of financial steals are very exciting to people, both 509 00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:03,400 Speaker 1: for smaller finn tech companies and consolidation across Europe. Right, 510 00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,920 Speaker 1: the fact that Deutsche Bank and Commerce Bank died, right, 511 00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:09,399 Speaker 1: but now Commerce Bank is talking to I m G again. 512 00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:14,520 Speaker 1: That's again more excitement for the investment bankers and nervousness 513 00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:17,000 Speaker 1: for the staff because it does usually mean some job cuts, 514 00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:20,400 Speaker 1: but are there's still too many firms doing too many 515 00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:24,879 Speaker 1: things where a given Wall Street firm Cinale will cut 516 00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:26,800 Speaker 1: out a hunk of business just because they say, we 517 00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:28,240 Speaker 1: don't want to be number four, we don't want to 518 00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:30,359 Speaker 1: be number three, we don't want to be number eight. 519 00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:33,080 Speaker 1: That's the big question. We think that there's going to 520 00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:37,359 Speaker 1: be a lot of consolidation, but what kind of consolidation. 521 00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:40,440 Speaker 1: It's really hard for the biggest banks to keep getting bigger. 522 00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:43,080 Speaker 1: There's a lot of talk earlier this year about a 523 00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 1: lot of banks trying to get bigger under the Trump administration, 524 00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:49,160 Speaker 1: in particular in case the Dems take over in the 525 00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,280 Speaker 1: next cycle, they'll have a harder time for our audience. 526 00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:57,000 Speaker 1: Those are Democrats she's talking about. Than sorry, but you know, 527 00:28:57,600 --> 00:28:59,040 Speaker 1: if they're going to get bigger, they might as well 528 00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:02,000 Speaker 1: get bigger now there. That means through buying companies or 529 00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:05,960 Speaker 1: what UBS is doing, and diversifying into businesses that they're 530 00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:09,640 Speaker 1: not as big as already. Yes, the big want to 531 00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:12,720 Speaker 1: get bigger for certain, and that will wipe out the 532 00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:16,360 Speaker 1: smaller end of the pie. To be clear, we just 533 00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:18,960 Speaker 1: got off a bunch of job cuts as well, all 534 00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:23,680 Speaker 1: across Wall Street done? Is Wall Street done? What the 535 00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:27,160 Speaker 1: job cuts? You know, Wall Street can be a little 536 00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:29,920 Speaker 1: fickle and it really depends, you know, in the next 537 00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:31,640 Speaker 1: couple of weeks or so. We're really going to see 538 00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,600 Speaker 1: the next second quarter numbers come out. So far, James Gorman, 539 00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:38,120 Speaker 1: for example, Morgan Stanley had been pretty optimistic about what 540 00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:40,840 Speaker 1: the second quarter looks like. People are trading, People are 541 00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,840 Speaker 1: not staying away from the markets necessarily. Um, you know, 542 00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:47,960 Speaker 1: we talk dealmakers are staying away, but generally traders and 543 00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:50,840 Speaker 1: bankers are not staying away from markets. So hopefully that 544 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,320 Speaker 1: means not too many job cuts ahead. It's similar Bassic, 545 00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,520 Speaker 1: thank you so much writing on Global Wall Street for Bloomberg. 546 00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:01,760 Speaker 1: And now we've take a different tact with a book. 547 00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:05,320 Speaker 1: We have Alan Krueger's Rock Eonomics, and of course Professor 548 00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:09,480 Speaker 1: Krueger told me much about this book over the last 549 00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:13,360 Speaker 1: number of years, his excitement of looking at the music business, 550 00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:17,800 Speaker 1: which was an inquiring mind. We lost Alan Krueger in 551 00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:21,240 Speaker 1: March is untimely death and joining us this morning to 552 00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:24,640 Speaker 1: um to look briefly at Rockconomics, a wonderful book from 553 00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:28,720 Speaker 1: Princeton University at Press. But also to speak of Professor 554 00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:32,760 Speaker 1: Krueger is Austin Guelsby. He is a gentleman from Milton 555 00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:36,840 Speaker 1: Academy and out of University of Chicago and the Boost School. 556 00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:41,920 Speaker 1: Austin Guelsby, of course, like Professor Krueger, a former chairman 557 00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:45,440 Speaker 1: of the President's Council of Economic Advisors. Austin, I spoke 558 00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:49,520 Speaker 1: to you yesterday, thrilled to have you on Worldwide today. 559 00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:54,760 Speaker 1: What permeates Alan Krueger's rock economics is what permeated his 560 00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:59,040 Speaker 1: study of terror, his study of his core economic theories, 561 00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:01,719 Speaker 1: his study of any number of things, which is just 562 00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:06,960 Speaker 1: an insatiable curiosity. And here about music, from your great, 563 00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:11,840 Speaker 1: great uh knowledge of Alan Krueger, Why did he choose music? 564 00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:15,080 Speaker 1: You know? To a well, Tom, First of all, thanks 565 00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:17,920 Speaker 1: for having me back, and thanks for for giving me 566 00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:20,800 Speaker 1: a chance to talk about Alan and and this book. 567 00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:24,760 Speaker 1: Alan always loved music, you know, as you know, and 568 00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:28,000 Speaker 1: as you said there in the opening, he loved talking 569 00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:31,080 Speaker 1: about music, He loved listening to music. And he was 570 00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:35,760 Speaker 1: a you know, absolutely world class economist. And I think 571 00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:40,440 Speaker 1: he couldn't help but apply his economics to this thing 572 00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:43,400 Speaker 1: that that he enjoyed so much, and and and in 573 00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:45,360 Speaker 1: the end, that's that's where the book came out. The 574 00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:52,320 Speaker 1: book is basically going to popular music, UM and talking 575 00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:55,680 Speaker 1: about how popular it is and measuring that, but then 576 00:31:55,800 --> 00:32:00,479 Speaker 1: just analyzing the economics of it and the ways enriched 577 00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:05,040 Speaker 1: the music business reflect kind of these broader trends that 578 00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:09,120 Speaker 1: have happened in the labor market over the last fifty years. UM. 579 00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:12,480 Speaker 1: And so that's kind of the premise of the Okay, 580 00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:15,000 Speaker 1: But what's what permeates the book, Austin, and this includes 581 00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:18,040 Speaker 1: your work at Chicago, is this this and all of 582 00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:20,920 Speaker 1: us are living this right now in music and outside music. 583 00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:24,320 Speaker 1: Is the technological overlay. He's got ahod chapter on streaming, 584 00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:26,360 Speaker 1: and that's going out lights people. We saw the Apple 585 00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:29,760 Speaker 1: announcement two days ago. They're gonna lose iTunes. I mean, 586 00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:34,520 Speaker 1: what do we learn about technological change in music that 587 00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:37,000 Speaker 1: goes over to what all of us are confronting in 588 00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:42,480 Speaker 1: our lives with our families. Super important topic obviously and 589 00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:46,160 Speaker 1: clearly UM. I think one of the things that that 590 00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:52,120 Speaker 1: this suggests is as the technology of of digital copying, 591 00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:55,680 Speaker 1: let's call it, and digital distribution makes it easier to 592 00:32:55,720 --> 00:33:00,120 Speaker 1: reach these big markets. It does have a tendency who 593 00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:05,480 Speaker 1: lead to winner take all superstar um type factors in 594 00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:09,840 Speaker 1: the labor market. So so in the book, Krueger shows 595 00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:16,760 Speaker 1: that the share of the tworldwide UH music revenue is 596 00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:22,000 Speaker 1: getting more and more concentrated among the very most popular artists. 597 00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:26,240 Speaker 1: And if you're if you're struggling in the middle, um, 598 00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,280 Speaker 1: you you are struggling. And part of that is from 599 00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:34,360 Speaker 1: the technology change um. And there's a there's an ironic 600 00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:38,000 Speaker 1: bid in there for anybody who's who's a ficionado of economics, 601 00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:42,360 Speaker 1: which is the great economist Alfred Marshall, kind of inventor 602 00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:47,920 Speaker 1: of supply and demand. In his original writings he made 603 00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:52,800 Speaker 1: a big deal about there are some industries and jobs 604 00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:57,400 Speaker 1: that are scalable and some are not. And the example 605 00:33:57,520 --> 00:34:00,880 Speaker 1: of a job that was not scalable he had was 606 00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:05,040 Speaker 1: a very famous singer. And they said, well, obviously everybody 607 00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:07,959 Speaker 1: can't listen to that singer. That they have to go 608 00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:10,680 Speaker 1: town to town and only the people who can hear them, 609 00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:15,560 Speaker 1: because there were no microphones and U And now you know, however, 610 00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:19,600 Speaker 1: many years later it's the complete reverse. So now if 611 00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:22,759 Speaker 1: you add an example of what somebody where technology makes 612 00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:25,719 Speaker 1: their market bigger, and bigger makes for more winner take all. 613 00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:28,560 Speaker 1: You would say, well, what about Beyonce. You know she 614 00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:32,799 Speaker 1: can she can sing once and and record it and 615 00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:36,640 Speaker 1: everybody listen. So, Professor, how does a new band or 616 00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:39,680 Speaker 1: a new artist break intoday? It used to be just 617 00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:41,760 Speaker 1: try to get a record deal than the record company 618 00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:44,280 Speaker 1: promotes you. How did the new uh, the new bands 619 00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:48,520 Speaker 1: do it? Yeah, I think it's uh, it's gotten harder. 620 00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:51,800 Speaker 1: That's part of the thing about the superstar model is 621 00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:53,919 Speaker 1: it's gotten harder to be a super If you get 622 00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:56,399 Speaker 1: to be a superstar, you make more than you've ever 623 00:34:56,440 --> 00:35:00,239 Speaker 1: made before. Um, But if you're just starting out, the 624 00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:04,480 Speaker 1: marketing component has gotten more difficult because you don't have 625 00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:08,120 Speaker 1: the radio side, and the labels are are not investing 626 00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:11,440 Speaker 1: as much in the discovering the bands. Austin, I want 627 00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:13,279 Speaker 1: to go to the legacy of Allan Krueger, and to 628 00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:15,719 Speaker 1: do that in this short time is grossly unfair to 629 00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:19,960 Speaker 1: Professor Krueger and frankly to Professor Goulsby as well. Let 630 00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:23,360 Speaker 1: us cut to the chase. Krueger and Card in the 631 00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:28,160 Speaker 1: middle nineties changed the dialogue on what the most basic 632 00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:32,000 Speaker 1: people in America should be paid. We're not talking about 633 00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:36,040 Speaker 1: minimum wage lifts. Walmart and uproar at their annual meeting, 634 00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:38,960 Speaker 1: et cetera, at the fifteen dollars an hour. Did the 635 00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:42,640 Speaker 1: Allen Krueger win the war of the minimum wage? You 636 00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:47,719 Speaker 1: know that war continues, but he certainly won a major battle. Uh. 637 00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:51,279 Speaker 1: And you know, took over one continent in the in 638 00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:53,279 Speaker 1: the old game of risk. You know, if you if 639 00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:56,319 Speaker 1: you could get control of one of the continents, Uh, 640 00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:59,840 Speaker 1: you're You're on your way. And I would say he 641 00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:03,759 Speaker 1: was part one of the leaders of a of a 642 00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:08,600 Speaker 1: movement that got us to rethink employers and employees and 643 00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:14,720 Speaker 1: the thinking of maybe employers have a lot more bargaining power, 644 00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:19,640 Speaker 1: monopoly power than than we thought before. Maybe it's not 645 00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:24,359 Speaker 1: as competitive each particular employer as we thought. And if 646 00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:29,200 Speaker 1: it's not, then textbook kind of examples like hey, if 647 00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:32,719 Speaker 1: you raise the minimum wage, it automatically leads everyone to 648 00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:36,400 Speaker 1: get fired kind of thing, um are not accurate. And 649 00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:42,359 Speaker 1: so there there are many aspects of labor economics that 650 00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:45,280 Speaker 1: Allen was a leader of, but this whole space which 651 00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:50,719 Speaker 1: continued up to more recent times where he was one 652 00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:54,480 Speaker 1: of the first people documenting the way that employers were 653 00:36:54,560 --> 00:36:58,560 Speaker 1: signing non competes. And no I'm not talking about you know, 654 00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:02,960 Speaker 1: law firms or or things like that. Literally McDonald's signing 655 00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:07,040 Speaker 1: making their employees signed non competes for bidding them from 656 00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:10,880 Speaker 1: working at other fast food restaurants, um, and showing the 657 00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:13,840 Speaker 1: ways that that allowed employers to kind of depress the 658 00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:15,880 Speaker 1: wages of the people who worked for them because they 659 00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:18,560 Speaker 1: didn't have to worry about um that you would go 660 00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:22,759 Speaker 1: to a competitor. All of that goes to to Alan's 661 00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:27,080 Speaker 1: intellectual curiosity and working on important problems. You know. That's 662 00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:31,359 Speaker 1: why President Obama identified him as a leader made him 663 00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:33,920 Speaker 1: Chair of the c E. A before that, President Clinton 664 00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,200 Speaker 1: had made him the chief Economists at the Department of Labor. 665 00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:40,640 Speaker 1: He was he was a rare bird in that he 666 00:37:40,840 --> 00:37:45,759 Speaker 1: was a world leading economist researcher, but but he was 667 00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:49,000 Speaker 1: very practical. Well, Austin Goes, We thank you so much 668 00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:53,239 Speaker 1: from Chicago Today in support of the late Alan Krueger's 669 00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:58,080 Speaker 1: Rock Economics. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. 670 00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:03,360 Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or 671 00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:07,840 Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom 672 00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:11,839 Speaker 1: Keene before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. 673 00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:13,360 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio