WEBVTT - Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson Talks Magnificent Seven Minus Three

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<v Speaker 1>Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson writes in this the data tell

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<v Speaker 1>us growth and inflation are slowing directionally, and the FED

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<v Speaker 1>will be easing this year as a result. Under such conditions,

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<v Speaker 1>quality growth outperforms when in doubt, it pays to go

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<v Speaker 1>with the highest probability winner. In this case, it's high

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<v Speaker 1>quality growth. Mike com police to say, joins us. Now

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<v Speaker 1>for more. Mike, it's going to see you.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, great to see you guys.

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning, fantastic. Have you with us around the table.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll get to stocks in a second. I want to

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<v Speaker 1>talk about the outlook. A convictionless outlook was a theme

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<v Speaker 1>in a recent note of yours. How convictionless are things

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<v Speaker 1>right now?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, look, we just we spend time with clients all

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<v Speaker 3>the time, that's what we do for a living.

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<v Speaker 2>And I would just say that, you know, we had this.

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<v Speaker 3>Big rally after you know, the pivot, and I would

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<v Speaker 3>say it started with the Treasury squeeze when they said

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<v Speaker 3>they're an issue less coupon. So it was really a

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<v Speaker 3>duration rally that then fed into a stock rally. And

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<v Speaker 3>so now evaluations are stressed again and people are looking

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<v Speaker 3>around going Okay, what's next what's the next catalyst. I

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<v Speaker 3>think there's going to be a couple of things that

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<v Speaker 3>will determine the direction. Number one, what is the how

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<v Speaker 3>much deceleration do we get?

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<v Speaker 2>Okay?

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<v Speaker 3>What is the come back to this banking question? I

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<v Speaker 3>think that's like to me, that issue is not a

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<v Speaker 3>systemic issue.

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<v Speaker 2>What it is is.

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<v Speaker 3>A weight on growth and credit growth, Okay, Like the

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<v Speaker 3>regional banking system is just not lending at the same

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<v Speaker 3>rate that they were because they're constrained.

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<v Speaker 2>And that's been our.

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<v Speaker 3>View all along, which means quality stocks will continue to

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<v Speaker 3>do better.

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<v Speaker 2>Right.

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<v Speaker 3>The companies that are relying on that kind of funding

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<v Speaker 3>are going to continue to see that's a paperweight for them.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think that's the main takeaway from the banking situation.

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<v Speaker 3>And then, of course new themes will evolve. Last year

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<v Speaker 3>was about two main themes, right, it was about GLPS

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<v Speaker 3>and AI. So can those two themes continue to drive

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<v Speaker 3>you know, the stock market? Yeah, to some degree, but

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<v Speaker 3>it's probably going to morph a bit and then there'll

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<v Speaker 3>be new themes, and I think that's what that's what

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<v Speaker 3>investors are looking for now, looking for new themes to

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<v Speaker 3>kind of latch onto in a world that's going to

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<v Speaker 3>remain macro uncertain, is why.

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<v Speaker 1>I always saying, can you identify any themes run now?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I mean I think the AI theme is the one.

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<v Speaker 3>Instead of enablers, we're going to adopters, right, So that's

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<v Speaker 3>that's probably the biggest thing we have as a firm.

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<v Speaker 3>The GOLP one is sort of positive and negative as

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<v Speaker 3>we've seen, and that's so that's a great thing for

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<v Speaker 3>long short investors.

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<v Speaker 2>And then I'm wondering if we're going to get some.

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<v Speaker 3>Growth out of the international markets finally, you know international

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<v Speaker 3>you know, economies have not really recovered from the pandemic

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<v Speaker 3>yet for the most part, and I think that's a wildcard.

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<v Speaker 2>So if that were to happen, that could.

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<v Speaker 3>Be a great thing for em It could be a

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<v Speaker 3>theme for things that are levered more to global growth

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<v Speaker 3>as opposed to just the US, which has really been

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<v Speaker 3>the only engine of growth.

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<v Speaker 4>Since you say that you fly around and you talk

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<v Speaker 4>with clients, I was just noticing some of your recent travels.

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<v Speaker 4>You're recently in Miami. I'm at you getting a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of points by the way. You talked about the AI stock,

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<v Speaker 4>saying I think it's the magnificent four now and it's

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<v Speaker 4>related to earnings.

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<v Speaker 1>Who are the magnificent four? Who gets dropped?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I mean I think it's where I talking about

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<v Speaker 3>specific names, but I think it's obvious people have been

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<v Speaker 3>talking about this too. I'm not the only one, right,

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<v Speaker 3>we're seeing you you can identify which stocks have fallen off.

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<v Speaker 3>But when we look at his earnings, okay, and I

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<v Speaker 3>would say, there's a magneficent one quite frankly that.

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<v Speaker 2>Has real top line acceleration growth. Everybody knows what it is,

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<v Speaker 2>and then the other ones are been more cost cutting stories,

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<v Speaker 2>right Nvidia.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, And my sense is, my sense is that what

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<v Speaker 3>we're going to say here is a broadening out in

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<v Speaker 3>quality growth. In other words, and we do our screens

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<v Speaker 3>on quality growth, only twenty seven percent of that basket

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<v Speaker 3>is in it. Another ten or twelve percent is in

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<v Speaker 3>comm services. So there's another sixty to seventy percent of

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<v Speaker 3>the S and P five hundred that kind of qualify

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<v Speaker 3>for that high quality growth bucket. And that's what should happen.

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<v Speaker 3>We should broaden out if we have a soft landing

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<v Speaker 3>that doesn't have other issues. And that's that's the other

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<v Speaker 3>thing that we've been really trying to help clients with

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<v Speaker 3>is give them a framework on the macro.

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<v Speaker 2>That's what we do. And so here's the Here are

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<v Speaker 2>the three buckets.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, soft landing, we're decelerating growth and decelerating inflation.

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<v Speaker 2>That's kind of what we had last year.

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<v Speaker 3>It's high quality growth, a soft landing with accelerating growth

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<v Speaker 3>and maybe stickier inflation. And that's the environment where you

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<v Speaker 3>can see a broadening out perhaps the lower quality areas.

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<v Speaker 2>And then the third scenario is still hard landing.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, we can't eliminate that, and I think that's

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<v Speaker 3>that's going to be how you know, that's going to

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<v Speaker 3>determine how you position your portfolio from from a stock.

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<v Speaker 4>Standpoint, how do you hedge if you are cautious and

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<v Speaker 4>there is this uncertainty? Is it energy stocks, is it

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<v Speaker 4>more duration sensitive stocks? How do you even understand what

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<v Speaker 4>it means to hedge when you have such bipolar types

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<v Speaker 4>of outcomes.

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<v Speaker 2>Diversification, You've got to be diversified, now, you know. One

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<v Speaker 2>of things we talked about this conference.

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<v Speaker 3>As well, which didn't make the headlines, is this idea

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<v Speaker 3>that we finally have very attractive real rates and anominal

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<v Speaker 3>rates to some degree. So from a portfolio construction standpoint. Okay,

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<v Speaker 3>this is the first time in fifteen years where you

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<v Speaker 3>can actually bonds actually provide their diversification benefit. And we

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<v Speaker 3>saw that yesterday right bonds rallied stocks were down, So

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<v Speaker 3>you know that's we're very bullish. We've been bullish on

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<v Speaker 3>duration since four ninety on a ten year I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>so here we are whatever, it's probably not as good

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<v Speaker 3>a value, but in the event that this something systemic

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<v Speaker 3>does happen, there's another shock to the economy that bond

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<v Speaker 3>portfolio now is that the yields are high enough where

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<v Speaker 3>they can actually provide some diversification to your equity risk,

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<v Speaker 3>which means you can take equity risk still.

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<v Speaker 2>Up the quality curve.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, so it's a diversification between stocks and bonds, and

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<v Speaker 3>then understanding what within the equity market you feel more

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<v Speaker 3>comfortable with.

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<v Speaker 2>If look, if things.

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<v Speaker 3>Get better on the economic front and we see better growth,

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<v Speaker 3>then we can go out the risk curve inequities. We

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<v Speaker 3>can take more equity risk as long as we have

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<v Speaker 3>that duration benefit.

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<v Speaker 1>On the bond side, you mentioned that changing theme from

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<v Speaker 1>AI enable us to adopt us. What should I be

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<v Speaker 1>looking for adopters? What does that mean, what does that look.

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<v Speaker 3>Like, Well, looks more non tech, right, So who are

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<v Speaker 3>going to be the early adopters within you know, the

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<v Speaker 3>adoption of tech AI as a cost benefit as well

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<v Speaker 3>as driving new growth.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, I know we've written about this already. We think

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<v Speaker 2>it's more of a twenty.

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<v Speaker 3>Five story, Okay, like the productivity story is really twenty five.

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<v Speaker 3>So we're not that bullish on earnings this year. Relatives

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<v Speaker 3>of the streets streets at like two forty four. Bottoms up,

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<v Speaker 3>we're two thirty. That's the typical parent. That will probably

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<v Speaker 3>come down to our two thirty. But then for next

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<v Speaker 3>year we have two sixty six, a sixteen percent growth,

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<v Speaker 3>and a lot of that's going to be driven by

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<v Speaker 3>productivity improvements as this is adopted. I don't think this

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<v Speaker 3>is a second court you know, first, second, third quarter,

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<v Speaker 3>even fourth quarter. It's going to take a little bit

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<v Speaker 3>of time. But our analysts we've were to report recently

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<v Speaker 3>bottoms up report identifying potential winners in that and the

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<v Speaker 3>market will probably start to sniff that out sometime during

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<v Speaker 3>the year. They're not going to wait all the way

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<v Speaker 3>until twenty twenty five. But that's that runs the gamut

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<v Speaker 3>of industries away from tech.

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<v Speaker 1>Are they labor intensive industries?

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<v Speaker 2>It can be.

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<v Speaker 3>It can be a labor intensive but it can also

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<v Speaker 3>be growth drivers. I mean, like if you use AI

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<v Speaker 3>to you know, as an effective way of marketing, like

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<v Speaker 3>as a cheaper way of marketing to get new customers.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, we don't know yet. This is this is

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<v Speaker 3>what's exciting about it. It's also uncertain. There's also gonna

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<v Speaker 3>be a lot of losers.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay.

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<v Speaker 3>Now, one of the things that worries me a little

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<v Speaker 3>bit about AI in the short term, We've seen a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of layoffs recently within the tech sector. So you know,

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<v Speaker 3>maybe they're maybe these guys are already seeing the benefits

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<v Speaker 3>and they're able to remove headcounts.

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<v Speaker 2>So, you know, the labor.

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<v Speaker 3>Market, I think there's various views in the labor market.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, you know, our view is slowing, it's weakening,

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of government jobs, a lot of healthcare social

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<v Speaker 3>worker type jobs which are somewhat government related. And if

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<v Speaker 3>companies get a fish, this could be an interesting catalyst

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<v Speaker 3>actually for more layoffs potentially.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's it's going to be uncertain, right, Okay.

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<v Speaker 4>I just have to ask this because I get messages

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<v Speaker 4>all the time, you're such a downer. Why are you

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<v Speaker 4>so pessimistic when you go around and you're talking to

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<v Speaker 4>different clients, how much pushback do you get to just

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<v Speaker 4>sort of a more realistic view of the potential risks

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<v Speaker 4>given that only the rosiest seem to have come to pass.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, Look, I mean our clients are active managers, right,

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<v Speaker 3>so they're not worried about the S and P.

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<v Speaker 2>Five hundred. They're trying to find what works.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, you know for all of the headlines we

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<v Speaker 3>get around the S and P. Five hundred, mean what

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<v Speaker 3>we usually talk to clients about our individual sectors.

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<v Speaker 2>And stocks and like what's going to work?

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<v Speaker 3>And so like last year we get a you know,

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<v Speaker 3>an F on SMP, but we get probably an AARB

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<v Speaker 3>on being in the right places in the market.

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<v Speaker 2>And you know, that's our job.

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<v Speaker 3>And then that's and that's what active managers are trying

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<v Speaker 3>to do.

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<v Speaker 2>So you know, you don't have to be super bear super.

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<v Speaker 2>It's not about being bullish or bearish.

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<v Speaker 3>It's about being bullish in certain parts of the market

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<v Speaker 3>and opportunity and being cautious or concerned about others. And

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<v Speaker 3>and look, last year was a was a really great

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<v Speaker 3>stock picking market that most stocks. You know, up until

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<v Speaker 3>October twenty seventh, we're had a tough time and then

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<v Speaker 3>we had this little rally at end of the year. And

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<v Speaker 3>we've been very consistent about this over the last twelve

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<v Speaker 3>to eighteen months. As you guys know, I mean, we

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<v Speaker 3>don't think the trade is to then you go to

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<v Speaker 3>the lower quality bucket, okay, to go for the low

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<v Speaker 3>quality cyclicals, and like that's a recession trade. We're not

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<v Speaker 3>in a recession. You know, you need a clearing event.

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<v Speaker 3>That was our call in twenty twenty. Then that worked

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<v Speaker 3>really really well. Don't overthink it, right, you need to

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<v Speaker 3>buy the high quality growth stocks.

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<v Speaker 2>And it's not all mag seven all right.

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<v Speaker 3>There are other there are other businesses that have those

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<v Speaker 3>characteristics who are maybe not as appreciated.

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<v Speaker 1>It's the mac ful, It's the mac won Lasa making friends.

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<v Speaker 1>I love how you did that well. And if you

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<v Speaker 1>get the feedback that I get, people hate and Anya

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<v Speaker 1>for being clue me. Oh yeah, yeah all the time.

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<v Speaker 1>It's okay.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, honestly, I actually don't think I'm all that clueing.

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<v Speaker 1>But sometimes no, it's so Brami none, it's so that

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<v Speaker 1>brand is so unfit. I'm greact my wolfs, and you're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna stick with us. From Moke, standing from place to

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<v Speaker 1>say