WEBVTT - Arm IPO, Choice Hotels, Banks, and Microsoft (Podcast)

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside

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<v Speaker 1>my co host Matt Miller.

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<v Speaker 2>Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros,

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<v Speaker 2>and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news.

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<v Speaker 1>Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever

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<v Speaker 1>you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>we actually have an IPO to talk about, a big

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<v Speaker 1>one coming up here. We want to get right to it.

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<v Speaker 1>Billy Lipschultz, he covers all that IPO stuff and all

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<v Speaker 1>the new market stuff for Bloomberg News. He joined us

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<v Speaker 1>here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. All right, so,

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<v Speaker 1>Bailly arm, it's part of the soft bank. They need

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<v Speaker 1>to convince the market that as a chip designer, they

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<v Speaker 1>are a great play on AI. How did they do that?

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<v Speaker 3>The big sales pitch is being in AI, being in

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<v Speaker 3>machine learning, being in and we looked at the filings

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<v Speaker 3>the company actually only mentioned AI about fifty times. But

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<v Speaker 3>the big focus will be when they're talking to investors

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<v Speaker 3>is how they can get and become really a staple

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<v Speaker 3>of those chips that are going to increasingly be used

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<v Speaker 3>to bring AI to things like your cell phone and

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<v Speaker 3>be able to incorporate their technology into data centers, which

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<v Speaker 3>obviously are very very lucrative for the technology in the

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<v Speaker 3>semiconductor space now.

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<v Speaker 1>So the challenge there for sorry rot but is because

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<v Speaker 1>the challenge is, if I'm sitting on the other side

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<v Speaker 1>of the table or I'm at the Rubber Chicken lunch

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<v Speaker 1>in New York, my thing is, but you guys aren't.

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<v Speaker 1>So I have to believe that you aren't now really

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<v Speaker 1>an AI play, but I have to believe that you're

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<v Speaker 1>going to get there right.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, And they, according to their data, are in something

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<v Speaker 3>like ninety nine percent of smartphones. So their whole pitch

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<v Speaker 3>is that smartphone market is drying. We've seen that play

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<v Speaker 3>out with earnings from Qualcom, earnings from Apple. Well, now

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<v Speaker 3>they're trying to skate to where the puck's going to

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<v Speaker 3>be data centers AI and being able to use their

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<v Speaker 3>technology and have customers used their blueprints, which they sell,

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<v Speaker 3>collect royalties, some nice royalties off of other companies using that,

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<v Speaker 3>and that's kind of where they're trying to position themselves,

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<v Speaker 3>really not saying in video is one of their many customers,

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<v Speaker 3>but they name dropped in Vida a few times as

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<v Speaker 3>people who they're operating and working with and letting them

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<v Speaker 3>use some of their AI technologies.

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<v Speaker 2>So what has in Nvidia said about ARM? I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>aren't the two pretty closely connected more than just sort

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<v Speaker 2>of a customer relationship.

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<v Speaker 3>And Video was set up to buy the company a

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<v Speaker 3>few years ago and that deal fell apart. The big

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<v Speaker 3>thing when you look at some of these Bloomberg reports

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<v Speaker 3>is that ARM is talking to what they're framing as

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<v Speaker 3>strategic investors in Vidia, according to Bloomberg reports, among those

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<v Speaker 3>potential investors alongside the likes of Amazon and Intel, to

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<v Speaker 3>actually buy into the IPO. So you're trying to look

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<v Speaker 3>at the way ARMS positioning itself to benefit from not

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<v Speaker 3>only selling to these customers and benefiting from their sales,

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<v Speaker 3>but also getting them to buy into the stock, which

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<v Speaker 3>creates kind of that familial environment for soft Bank, which

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<v Speaker 3>has had a pretty rough go losing thirty billion dollars

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<v Speaker 3>last year.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, this would be a big home run for them.

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<v Speaker 1>Great great story related to this on the Bloomberg terminal

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<v Speaker 1>by my buddy Alex Barinka and min Yng Lee. It

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<v Speaker 1>says ARM needed thirty five hundred words to explain it's

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<v Speaker 1>China risk before IPO. Wow, So they've got a China

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<v Speaker 1>risk here, So I guess investors have to get what

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<v Speaker 1>is that risk?

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<v Speaker 3>I guess ARM laid out that they generate about a

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<v Speaker 3>quarter of their revenue from China and that's driven by

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<v Speaker 3>ARM China, a unit that basically them in soft Bank

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<v Speaker 3>are partnered with but they don't control. So there's uncertainty

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<v Speaker 3>around slowing demand in China, which we've been seeing play out.

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<v Speaker 3>We've seen in the filing that the company's royalties coming

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<v Speaker 3>from China actually slowed in the last fiscal year.

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<v Speaker 1>They warned that could continue to slow.

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<v Speaker 3>And that's all on top of geopolitical risk with the

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<v Speaker 3>US UK anything going on as it relates to China

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<v Speaker 3>in Western countries. And you look at some of the

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<v Speaker 3>reactions we've seen from Bloomberg and two eligence really laying

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<v Speaker 3>out that China risks paired with slumping smartphone and consumer

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<v Speaker 3>electronic sales, those are the key concerns for investors going

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<v Speaker 3>through that's filing that hit yesterday evening.

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<v Speaker 2>By the way, in terms of the proceeds, this is

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<v Speaker 2>a sixty to seventy billion dollar valuation right as far

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<v Speaker 2>as we've reported as far as we've reported, which means

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<v Speaker 2>what they walk away.

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<v Speaker 1>With soft Bank.

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<v Speaker 3>Last week reported soft Bank would walk away with the

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<v Speaker 3>eight to ten billion dollars because they bought back the

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<v Speaker 3>remaining twenty five percent from their own vision fund, so

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<v Speaker 3>they are selling shares into the open market eight to ten.

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<v Speaker 3>We've been reporting that maybe it's going to be a

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<v Speaker 3>bit lower because now they own the entirety of the company,

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<v Speaker 3>So soft Bank actually brings in all of the sales

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<v Speaker 3>and none of that money is going.

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<v Speaker 2>To exactly that's the point. So none of these proceeds

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<v Speaker 2>go get reinvested into arms business. Yep, that's an important point.

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<v Speaker 3>And it goes back to soft Bank being able to

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<v Speaker 3>take that cash and redeploy it to some of the

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<v Speaker 3>other startups that they've tried to back and are looking

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<v Speaker 3>to back and try to.

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<v Speaker 1>All Right, here's another thing. I wonder what our reporting

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<v Speaker 1>is showing, because last quarter day the company had little

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<v Speaker 1>to know revenue growth dropped about one percent year. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>so give you that background. Is there any view coming

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<v Speaker 1>from the street on valuation?

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<v Speaker 3>Yet we saw in yours truly reported on this, we

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<v Speaker 3>saw a burnstea note laying out expectations around forty billion.

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<v Speaker 3>That was last month when we crunched the numbers looking

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<v Speaker 3>at some comps they've We've been taught hearing investors in

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<v Speaker 3>Wall Street talking up Synopsis and Cadence as better comps.

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<v Speaker 3>When you look at a price of sales trailing on

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<v Speaker 3>a twelve month average, evaluation comes.

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<v Speaker 1>Closer to thirty two to forty three billion, So and

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<v Speaker 1>the company is looking for what sixty to seventy as

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<v Speaker 1>far as we've and they bought back that bit spread there.

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<v Speaker 3>My friend, Well, they also bought back with that repurchase

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<v Speaker 3>from SoftBank, they paid about sixteen billion for that twenty

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<v Speaker 3>five percent stake, so sixty four billion dollars baked in.

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<v Speaker 3>But the one thing that was interesting in the filing

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<v Speaker 3>is SoftBank's warns, and this is verbatim. Investors are cautioned

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<v Speaker 3>that the purchase price paid may not be indicative of

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<v Speaker 3>it is not intended to reflect expectations regarding the completed deal.

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<v Speaker 3>So they basically are warning that they paid sixty evaluation

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<v Speaker 3>of sixty four billion, forget that that's part of a

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<v Speaker 3>different deal. Don't worry about ascribing that valuation money, because

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<v Speaker 3>that's the first place I would go to exactly, and

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<v Speaker 3>that's what we're talking to investors and people who want.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not going to be an easy deal, is it.

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<v Speaker 1>It's going to be a fascinating deal.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, we've talked about at length about the dearth

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<v Speaker 3>of IPOs, and the one view that I've been getting

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<v Speaker 3>from a number of my sources is that arm is

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<v Speaker 3>the type of company and they've stuck to their plans

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<v Speaker 3>to go public this year that could really go public

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<v Speaker 3>in most any market. It was public once before, back

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<v Speaker 3>in twenty sixteen. Soft Bank took it private. It's more

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<v Speaker 3>of an almost pe style play as opposed to your

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<v Speaker 3>traditional money burning VC.

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<v Speaker 2>Backed company, and it's the only game in town if

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<v Speaker 2>you want access to a new issue. If it does well,

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<v Speaker 2>I guess there'll be a cascade of IPOs that follow.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes and no. We're expecting potentially Instacart to flip their

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<v Speaker 3>S one sometime as early as this week. Clay Vio's

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<v Speaker 3>another company. The big thing that I've been talking to

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<v Speaker 3>my contacts, their view is fourth quarter twenty twenty three

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<v Speaker 3>will be interesting with some of these big companies that

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<v Speaker 3>probably should have or could go at most anytime. But

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<v Speaker 3>the big focus is going to be early twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 3>four when you're going to get more of those sweet

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<v Speaker 3>spot IPOs.

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<v Speaker 2>Just on a different topic completely. We were talking and

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<v Speaker 2>have been talking for a long time with Ira Jersey

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<v Speaker 2>about soccer, and I know messis come here, so it's

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<v Speaker 2>pretty exciting for a sport that otherwise is just deadly

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<v Speaker 2>boring to watch. Why doesn't professional lacrosse get a big

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<v Speaker 2>pick up in this country? And I ask you, Bailey,

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<v Speaker 2>because I've noticed that you were a lacrosse beat reporter

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<v Speaker 2>at Citrus TV.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>Man, I cut my teeth at at Syracuse University covering

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<v Speaker 3>which I still view is probably the best men's lacrosse

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<v Speaker 3>college team that did not win a national title.

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<v Speaker 1>They were absolutely stacked. Yeah, And back when we were kids,

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<v Speaker 1>that was it. It was Em and Jane Johns Hopkins

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<v Speaker 1>and then now everybody plays its big tens all getting

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<v Speaker 1>in on it. No.

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<v Speaker 3>But that's interesting, Matt, because coming from the West Coast,

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<v Speaker 3>I knew like two.

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<v Speaker 1>People who played lacrosse.

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<v Speaker 3>It was a rich kid San Diego sport that being

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<v Speaker 3>east of LA was like, we play football, that's what

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<v Speaker 3>men do.

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<v Speaker 2>And in Ohio, by the way, same thing. Growing up

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<v Speaker 2>in Ohio lacrosse with something only kids in like New

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<v Speaker 2>Jersey and Connecticut played. But now at you know the

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<v Speaker 2>schools that I all the schools I got kicked out

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<v Speaker 2>of in Central Ohio, they all play lacrosse.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, it's accelerating. The issue is in the this is

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<v Speaker 1>the pitch.

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<v Speaker 3>And I did a small stint covering sports here at

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg and sports business is lacrosse is going to be

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<v Speaker 3>gaining from parents who maybe don't want their kids to

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<v Speaker 3>play football for fear of injuries, head injuries. The issue,

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<v Speaker 3>the one kind of drawing factor is and the reason

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<v Speaker 3>it's compared to hockey is it's.

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<v Speaker 2>Not a cheap sport.

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<v Speaker 3>There aren't a lot of fields to play. So if

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<v Speaker 3>you don't have a tremendous amount of income where you

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<v Speaker 3>can find a stick in a ball and find someone

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<v Speaker 3>to play with, you can't go pick up and play

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<v Speaker 3>like soccer, football or basketball where there's a court or

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<v Speaker 3>there's just a grass field.

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<v Speaker 1>You end the number one high school team in the

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<v Speaker 1>country this year, the Lawrenceville School. Thank you very much,

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you Bailly good stuff. Bell Leadership's covers the markets.

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<v Speaker 4>You're listening to the team. Ken's a live program Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 4>Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,

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<v Speaker 1>Paul Sweeney Live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio.

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<v Speaker 1>We're doing that streaming thing on YouTube, So just head

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<v Speaker 2>YouTube dot com and search Bloomberg Radio. There you go.

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<v Speaker 1>You're into this thing. You know what's going on.

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<v Speaker 2>Here stream us live.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about the hotel business, particularly the extended stay

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<v Speaker 1>part of the business, which is probably a part of

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<v Speaker 1>the business we don't talk about enough. And Skazafava joins us.

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<v Speaker 1>She's the general manager and senior vice president of Extended

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<v Speaker 1>Stay brands at Choice Hotels. Troyti, of course, is a

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<v Speaker 1>New York Stock Exchange listed company. Ce HH is the

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<v Speaker 1>ticker to load into your Bloomberg Professional Service and thanks

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<v Speaker 1>so much for joining us. We appreciate you coming in

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<v Speaker 1>all the way from Rockville, Maryland. Talk to us about

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<v Speaker 1>the extended stay business. What are the drivers of your

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<v Speaker 1>business and what are the trends been I guess over

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<v Speaker 1>the last several years as the world's kind of reinvented

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<v Speaker 1>itself a little bit.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, no, that's great. So extended say caters primarily to

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<v Speaker 5>non discretionaries day so think traveling nurses, construction crews. So

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<v Speaker 5>we have a lot of tailwinds coming to us with

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<v Speaker 5>the Infrastructure Bill, the Chips Act, etc. So we see

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<v Speaker 5>a lot of demand in our future ahead of us

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<v Speaker 5>at this point in time, I would say the one

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<v Speaker 5>thing about the extended day brands is that they're pretty resilient.

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<v Speaker 5>So even in face of recessions and pandemics, we tend

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<v Speaker 5>to have an occupancy premium over the rest of traditional hotels.

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<v Speaker 5>So even right now in the first half of the year,

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<v Speaker 5>economy extended day has a nineteen percent occupancy point percentage

0:10:56.280 --> 0:10:59.920
<v Speaker 5>over just regular economy transient hotels. So it's a very

0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:01.400
<v Speaker 5>resilient business model.

0:11:02.120 --> 0:11:05.359
<v Speaker 2>I guess your biggest competitor right now would be Airbnb.

0:11:05.559 --> 0:11:07.320
<v Speaker 2>Is that fair to say? I mean, if I was

0:11:07.360 --> 0:11:09.079
<v Speaker 2>going to go someplace and I had to stay there

0:11:09.120 --> 0:11:11.840
<v Speaker 2>for two weeks, that would be sorry to say, my

0:11:11.880 --> 0:11:12.640
<v Speaker 2>first thought.

0:11:13.559 --> 0:11:14.720
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I think Airbnb.

0:11:14.840 --> 0:11:16.640
<v Speaker 5>Though when we look at that their price points are

0:11:16.679 --> 0:11:18.840
<v Speaker 5>a little bit different, and those guests don't tend to

0:11:18.840 --> 0:11:22.120
<v Speaker 5>look for kind of the standard guest experience that we

0:11:22.320 --> 0:11:25.200
<v Speaker 5>provide across that. So the way we think about extended

0:11:25.240 --> 0:11:27.480
<v Speaker 5>s A is that it's apartment like amenities with a

0:11:27.520 --> 0:11:29.720
<v Speaker 5>hotel of a flexibility. So you still get the services,

0:11:29.760 --> 0:11:32.160
<v Speaker 5>the cleaning, it's ed rad that you would expect from

0:11:32.160 --> 0:11:34.320
<v Speaker 5>a hotel, but you have a full size kitchen in

0:11:34.360 --> 0:11:36.720
<v Speaker 5>your room, you have some of those larger spaces and

0:11:36.760 --> 0:11:40.120
<v Speaker 5>suites versus a small traditional hotel room.

0:11:40.559 --> 0:11:45.760
<v Speaker 1>So are you primarily a franchise company? Okay? So how

0:11:45.800 --> 0:11:48.000
<v Speaker 1>do you grow your business in terms? Is it simply

0:11:48.000 --> 0:11:50.720
<v Speaker 1>going after and recruiting franchises? How does that work? How

0:11:50.720 --> 0:11:51.760
<v Speaker 1>does that growth? Yeah?

0:11:51.760 --> 0:11:53.920
<v Speaker 5>Absolutely, But I think developers at this point I'm are

0:11:53.960 --> 0:11:56.320
<v Speaker 5>looking at extends as one of the hottest segments within

0:11:56.360 --> 0:11:58.160
<v Speaker 5>the lodging industry. And really it's a hedge. It's a

0:11:58.200 --> 0:12:01.520
<v Speaker 5>really different type of asset class than additional hotel. So

0:12:01.600 --> 0:12:04.600
<v Speaker 5>over the last couple of years, even even during twenty twenty,

0:12:04.920 --> 0:12:07.640
<v Speaker 5>Woodspring Suits a our largest brand. They ran gopu margins

0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:09.360
<v Speaker 5>of fifty percent and they've gone up from there. So

0:12:09.440 --> 0:12:11.920
<v Speaker 5>last year we were on average at sixty percent, So

0:12:11.960 --> 0:12:13.920
<v Speaker 5>smart money is really kind of chasing us at this

0:12:13.920 --> 0:12:15.840
<v Speaker 5>point in time and wanting to get into the segment.

0:12:16.040 --> 0:12:18.600
<v Speaker 5>We've been able to capitalize on that. We've had over

0:12:18.720 --> 0:12:20.720
<v Speaker 5>fifty percent more openings in the first half of this

0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:22.559
<v Speaker 5>year than we did last year. We've grown our pipeline

0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:24.560
<v Speaker 5>seventeen percent just in the first half of this year.

0:12:25.360 --> 0:12:27.760
<v Speaker 5>So while we are, yes, of course going after some

0:12:27.800 --> 0:12:30.679
<v Speaker 5>of the larger developers, they are certainly seeking us out

0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:31.000
<v Speaker 5>as well.

0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:35.480
<v Speaker 2>So does the does the change in work from home

0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:37.679
<v Speaker 2>or the evolution of the way we work have a

0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:38.840
<v Speaker 2>big effect on your business?

0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:40.959
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, we've seen a lot of stays now where I mean,

0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:42.680
<v Speaker 5>I hate the word leisure, but where you get the

0:12:42.679 --> 0:12:44.640
<v Speaker 5>business traveler right and they're staying for five days and

0:12:44.640 --> 0:12:45.280
<v Speaker 5>then they tack on.

0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:47.760
<v Speaker 2>Wait, is that a word if people use, I mean, we.

0:12:47.679 --> 0:12:50.719
<v Speaker 5>Do in the industry, Yeah, leisure, leisure, businessiness.

0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:55.160
<v Speaker 2>Sure, leisure. I cannot believe that you're allowed to use

0:12:55.200 --> 0:12:56.000
<v Speaker 2>that word.

0:12:56.800 --> 0:12:59.920
<v Speaker 5>Somebody standard industry jargon. For sure, it was, yeah, but

0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:03.200
<v Speaker 5>that certainly has changed. And then honestly, they're reshoring of

0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:06.360
<v Speaker 5>a American manufacturing has also been a great tail wind

0:13:06.360 --> 0:13:07.840
<v Speaker 5>for us at this point in time. So any of

0:13:07.880 --> 0:13:10.480
<v Speaker 5>those large semiconductor plants that you're starting to see you

0:13:10.520 --> 0:13:12.640
<v Speaker 5>move in, battery plants, et cetera, are also creating a

0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:14.600
<v Speaker 5>lot of demand for the extended day segment.

0:13:15.120 --> 0:13:17.640
<v Speaker 1>How about I mean, can I build a hotel these days?

0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:19.840
<v Speaker 1>I mean the banks are just pulling back on lending

0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:22.680
<v Speaker 1>across this across the board. How does that impact I

0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:23.920
<v Speaker 1>guess you're franchisees.

0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:26.840
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so we're the only company that has two entry

0:13:26.840 --> 0:13:29.960
<v Speaker 5>points into extended day for both the economy segment and

0:13:29.960 --> 0:13:32.679
<v Speaker 5>the mid scale segment. So what we've done knowing that

0:13:32.760 --> 0:13:34.760
<v Speaker 5>new constructional lending is a challenge, right, and some of

0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:37.600
<v Speaker 5>our franchisees can can get that they have community banks,

0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:39.959
<v Speaker 5>that they've got local relationships, proven track records, and so

0:13:40.000 --> 0:13:42.720
<v Speaker 5>they're still getting that lending. But a lot of folks

0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:46.160
<v Speaker 5>where we have markets that have no extended stay to supply,

0:13:46.280 --> 0:13:49.280
<v Speaker 5>there's a ton of traditional hotels. We came up with

0:13:49.280 --> 0:13:51.400
<v Speaker 5>a really innovative solution that we call kitchen in a Box.

0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:56.120
<v Speaker 5>So we worked with engineers, architects, the trades, mechanical, electrical, plumbing,

0:13:56.160 --> 0:13:58.000
<v Speaker 5>et cetera, and came up with this concept where you

0:13:58.040 --> 0:14:01.559
<v Speaker 5>can take a traditional hotel room and into an extended

0:14:01.600 --> 0:14:03.959
<v Speaker 5>stay room, and we have twenty of those transformations going

0:14:03.960 --> 0:14:04.720
<v Speaker 5>on across the country.

0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:06.600
<v Speaker 1>What's an extended stay room entail?

0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:09.600
<v Speaker 5>So you must have a full sized kitchen, full size kitchen,

0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:11.560
<v Speaker 5>full sized kitchen, okay. And the way that we like

0:14:11.600 --> 0:14:13.800
<v Speaker 5>to think about it is guests use these rooms for

0:14:14.000 --> 0:14:17.120
<v Speaker 5>both workplay, me space. Right. They need to be flexible

0:14:17.160 --> 0:14:19.640
<v Speaker 5>spaces so that it's more kind of like your home,

0:14:19.720 --> 0:14:21.960
<v Speaker 5>even thoughtful things like you know, you want a larger

0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:23.480
<v Speaker 5>vanity in the bathroom because you're going to be there

0:14:23.520 --> 0:14:24.560
<v Speaker 5>for many weeks. You want to be able to put

0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:27.280
<v Speaker 5>all yourself out right. So that's how we think about

0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:29.360
<v Speaker 5>designing that with the consumer first and how they're going

0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:30.200
<v Speaker 5>to use that space.

0:14:30.480 --> 0:14:34.880
<v Speaker 2>How have labor costs been because I know, you know,

0:14:35.040 --> 0:14:37.880
<v Speaker 2>in the pandemic, or even at the end of the pandemic,

0:14:38.360 --> 0:14:42.440
<v Speaker 2>Paul and I would interview hoteliers. How do you say

0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:46.160
<v Speaker 2>that hoteliers, that's pretty good. Yeah, And they told us,

0:14:46.280 --> 0:14:48.520
<v Speaker 2>you know, it's very difficult to get people to come

0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:48.920
<v Speaker 2>to work.

0:14:49.040 --> 0:14:49.320
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:14:49.400 --> 0:14:52.280
<v Speaker 5>So the beauty of extended day is in the economy

0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:54.920
<v Speaker 5>segment in particular, there's only six or seven full time employees.

0:14:55.000 --> 0:14:56.640
<v Speaker 5>And the reason that is is because we only do

0:14:56.680 --> 0:15:00.680
<v Speaker 5>housekeeping bi weekly, so the labor model is super light

0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:03.160
<v Speaker 5>in these hotels, which also enables those high margins that

0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:05.880
<v Speaker 5>I spoke about earlier. So yes, we are not immune

0:15:05.880 --> 0:15:07.960
<v Speaker 5>to that, but it certainly lends itself a little bit

0:15:07.960 --> 0:15:09.320
<v Speaker 5>easier than what you're seeing in traditionally.

0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:14.120
<v Speaker 2>I see though, so extended stay facilities are not housed

0:15:14.240 --> 0:15:18.680
<v Speaker 2>within your traditional hotel facilities. They're actually completely separate.

0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:24.320
<v Speaker 5>Yeah so yeah, So so take a Woodspring Speets for instance. Prototype.

0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:27.440
<v Speaker 5>Prototype is one hundred and twenty two rooms and they

0:15:27.440 --> 0:15:31.280
<v Speaker 5>come standard with the kitchens, et cetera. There's also guest laundry,

0:15:31.760 --> 0:15:34.200
<v Speaker 5>fitness facilities, et cetera, so that you can really maintain

0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:36.840
<v Speaker 5>your lifestyle there, so you would not see them withinside

0:15:36.840 --> 0:15:37.800
<v Speaker 5>a traditional hotel.

0:15:38.080 --> 0:15:40.120
<v Speaker 1>But no, like restaurants or any that type of this

0:15:40.120 --> 0:15:43.360
<v Speaker 1>is just stays. Okay, Yeah, who do you compete against?

0:15:43.360 --> 0:15:43.560
<v Speaker 2>Really?

0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:45.520
<v Speaker 1>Matt mentioned Airbnb, but on the in terms of the

0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:47.480
<v Speaker 1>traditional extended stay, who's the company?

0:15:47.600 --> 0:15:49.080
<v Speaker 5>Yeah? Well, I mean we're starting to see a lot

0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:51.480
<v Speaker 5>of new competitors come into the space. So Marriotte, Hill

0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:53.960
<v Speaker 5>and High have all really brand launches at this point

0:15:53.960 --> 0:15:55.800
<v Speaker 5>in time. I think for us though we've been in

0:15:55.800 --> 0:15:57.800
<v Speaker 5>the space for a really long time. We acquired Woodspring

0:15:57.880 --> 0:16:00.640
<v Speaker 5>Suites back in twenty eighteen have kind of re invigorated

0:16:00.640 --> 0:16:03.520
<v Speaker 5>the segment. We have over four hundred open and operating

0:16:03.520 --> 0:16:06.480
<v Speaker 5>extended stay hotels right now, with another three hundred in

0:16:06.520 --> 0:16:07.080
<v Speaker 5>the pipeline.

0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:10.000
<v Speaker 1>And where those are the regional areas that you guys

0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:12.240
<v Speaker 1>are focusing on, or I mean coast to coast.

0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:13.840
<v Speaker 5>We certainly see a lot of demand right now in

0:16:13.840 --> 0:16:16.640
<v Speaker 5>Texas and Florida. The relocation has been big for us

0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:19.360
<v Speaker 5>as well. So think places like Boise, Idaho that are

0:16:19.520 --> 0:16:22.400
<v Speaker 5>just growing kind of urban areas at this point in time.

0:16:22.640 --> 0:16:23.640
<v Speaker 1>Talk to us about rowing.

0:16:24.200 --> 0:16:30.040
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, she's in the Athletic Hall of Fame. I mean,

0:16:30.280 --> 0:16:30.680
<v Speaker 2>no joke.

0:16:30.760 --> 0:16:32.680
<v Speaker 1>What's a Coxswaine? Is that the one that says stroke,

0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:33.400
<v Speaker 1>stroke or go.

0:16:34.320 --> 0:16:37.000
<v Speaker 5>It's a little more sophisticated. So you actually have a

0:16:37.040 --> 0:16:40.600
<v Speaker 5>microphone and there are speakers underneath the seat, right, and

0:16:40.680 --> 0:16:42.560
<v Speaker 5>so I can whisper and the crew would be able

0:16:42.560 --> 0:16:44.960
<v Speaker 5>to hear you. But yes, I steered the boat and

0:16:45.040 --> 0:16:47.480
<v Speaker 5>then you made sure that we were making race moves.

0:16:47.520 --> 0:16:49.640
<v Speaker 2>What are you should in the front though right in

0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:52.200
<v Speaker 2>the back so you can see. I see. So you

0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:55.400
<v Speaker 2>actually do steer literally literally and then you're the motivator

0:16:55.440 --> 0:16:58.400
<v Speaker 2>of the crew. Correct, absolutely, So what's the athletic Hall

0:16:58.400 --> 0:17:01.000
<v Speaker 2>of Fame? Like, do you have like your jersey there or.

0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:03.520
<v Speaker 5>I have met my plaque and it's you know, on

0:17:03.560 --> 0:17:05.440
<v Speaker 5>the riverfront. So we have our boat house out there.

0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:08.800
<v Speaker 5>So that's what river is washing it Chester River. So

0:17:08.880 --> 0:17:09.440
<v Speaker 5>in Maryland.

0:17:09.800 --> 0:17:12.240
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I don't know anybody who rose.

0:17:13.080 --> 0:17:14.200
<v Speaker 2>Uh yeah, I know some.

0:17:14.560 --> 0:17:14.960
<v Speaker 1>I know some.

0:17:15.400 --> 0:17:16.920
<v Speaker 2>I actually only know women who row.

0:17:17.640 --> 0:17:20.080
<v Speaker 5>But it's a big D three so it's huge.

0:17:20.160 --> 0:17:20.879
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's huge.

0:17:20.920 --> 0:17:22.960
<v Speaker 2>I mean I know a lot of Boston women who

0:17:23.040 --> 0:17:24.119
<v Speaker 2>row in the Charles.

0:17:24.160 --> 0:17:27.480
<v Speaker 5>That's amazing. We we we came in third, I want

0:17:27.480 --> 0:17:29.200
<v Speaker 5>to say one of the years on the Charles. And

0:17:29.280 --> 0:17:30.919
<v Speaker 5>of course it's a big tradition to throw the Coxon

0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:31.480
<v Speaker 5>in if you win.

0:17:32.640 --> 0:17:36.440
<v Speaker 1>All right, good stuff and Skazafava, general manager and Senior

0:17:36.520 --> 0:17:39.520
<v Speaker 1>VP of Extended Stay Brands at Choice Hotels.

0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:42.879
<v Speaker 4>You're listening to the tape Cat's are Live program Bloomberg

0:17:42.960 --> 0:17:46.560
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0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:49.840
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0:17:49.880 --> 0:17:52.679
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0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:57.800
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0:17:58.800 --> 0:18:01.399
<v Speaker 1>You know, Matt, I don't know about this whole you know,

0:18:01.640 --> 0:18:04.040
<v Speaker 1>yield curve thing. It's you know, I'm an equities guy,

0:18:04.080 --> 0:18:05.359
<v Speaker 1>so this is kind of something new for me. But

0:18:05.440 --> 0:18:07.960
<v Speaker 1>Lisa Bromowitz has been schooling me for years on this

0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:09.800
<v Speaker 1>and the latest thing she says I have to focus

0:18:09.840 --> 0:18:12.600
<v Speaker 1>on is real yield for the tenure hit two percent?

0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:14.760
<v Speaker 1>The highest in a very long time. I think it's

0:18:14.800 --> 0:18:17.000
<v Speaker 1>two two thousand and nine. What does that mean? I

0:18:17.000 --> 0:18:19.719
<v Speaker 1>don't know. Somebody ask somebody who's smart about this kind

0:18:19.720 --> 0:18:20.159
<v Speaker 1>of stuff.

0:18:20.040 --> 0:18:21.840
<v Speaker 2>And this is what the Fed wanted, right They said

0:18:21.880 --> 0:18:24.320
<v Speaker 2>they wanted to get real yields positive. At the time

0:18:24.359 --> 0:18:27.160
<v Speaker 2>that Powell was complaining about it, they were negative, yep.

0:18:27.480 --> 0:18:30.320
<v Speaker 2>And now they're way up there. So the question is

0:18:30.359 --> 0:18:33.280
<v Speaker 2>are they then able to achieve their goal of reducing

0:18:33.280 --> 0:18:34.359
<v Speaker 2>inflation to two percent?

0:18:34.480 --> 0:18:36.639
<v Speaker 1>And let's ask somebody about that. Jay Haffield, he's the

0:18:36.680 --> 0:18:40.000
<v Speaker 1>CEO and founder and portfolio manager of Infrastructure Capital Management.

0:18:40.240 --> 0:18:41.600
<v Speaker 1>It has been kind enough to join us here in

0:18:41.600 --> 0:18:44.760
<v Speaker 1>our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. So, Jay, talk to us

0:18:44.760 --> 0:18:47.520
<v Speaker 1>about your call on inflation. I got this real yield

0:18:47.520 --> 0:18:50.760
<v Speaker 1>thing at two percent. That's the highest since July of

0:18:50.800 --> 0:18:53.240
<v Speaker 1>two thousand and nine, So that gets my attention. What's

0:18:53.240 --> 0:18:53.960
<v Speaker 1>going on out there?

0:18:54.920 --> 0:18:59.840
<v Speaker 7>Thanks Paul Matt for having me on. Well, we actually

0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:03.000
<v Speaker 7>I think that the Fed is a little bit of

0:19:03.240 --> 0:19:06.960
<v Speaker 7>out of play right now. So in other words, they

0:19:07.000 --> 0:19:09.040
<v Speaker 7>may or may not raise one more time. We don't

0:19:09.040 --> 0:19:13.000
<v Speaker 7>think they will. There was a story in the Journal today,

0:19:13.000 --> 0:19:16.480
<v Speaker 7>but we did some data in preparation for this. The

0:19:16.560 --> 0:19:20.359
<v Speaker 7>labor markets really weakening. That sixty percent of jobs added

0:19:20.440 --> 0:19:23.560
<v Speaker 7>are in the medical sector, and we all know that

0:19:23.560 --> 0:19:28.520
<v Speaker 7>that's more of a secular increase than cyclical. And also

0:19:28.800 --> 0:19:31.920
<v Speaker 7>wages are tenuating, So I think that data. We don't

0:19:31.920 --> 0:19:34.040
<v Speaker 7>think the Fed's going to raise. They don't know that yet,

0:19:34.280 --> 0:19:36.119
<v Speaker 7>but they're going to get some more data, particularly on

0:19:36.240 --> 0:19:39.760
<v Speaker 7>the on the labor side, even though that doesn't really matter,

0:19:39.800 --> 0:19:43.159
<v Speaker 7>but that's what they focus on. And also inflation is

0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:46.640
<v Speaker 7>going to gradually cool. The measurement of inflation already has cool,

0:19:46.680 --> 0:19:49.719
<v Speaker 7>but the measurement of inflation will continue to cool. So

0:19:49.800 --> 0:19:53.840
<v Speaker 7>we're optimistic that the FED will not raise again, but

0:19:53.920 --> 0:19:57.040
<v Speaker 7>we're very concerned about the ECB in case you want

0:19:57.080 --> 0:19:59.480
<v Speaker 7>to talk about that, because we think that's critical.

0:19:59.000 --> 0:20:01.639
<v Speaker 2>To Well, let's get to But I do want to

0:20:01.680 --> 0:20:03.879
<v Speaker 2>talk about your view on inflation, because you have your

0:20:03.880 --> 0:20:07.840
<v Speaker 2>own index CPI R and I'm looking at it on

0:20:07.920 --> 0:20:12.800
<v Speaker 2>the infrastructure, on infracap funds dot com on your website.

0:20:13.920 --> 0:20:18.400
<v Speaker 2>How do you see this working out in terms of inflation?

0:20:18.560 --> 0:20:20.800
<v Speaker 2>Is it really going to come back down to two percent?

0:20:20.960 --> 0:20:24.520
<v Speaker 2>And is that going to be anytime soon? Maybe the

0:20:24.600 --> 0:20:26.760
<v Speaker 2>heke one more time, but do we hold at that

0:20:26.880 --> 0:20:28.920
<v Speaker 2>level or are you worried it bounces back?

0:20:29.359 --> 0:20:32.199
<v Speaker 7>Well, the two things to focus on in terms of

0:20:32.520 --> 0:20:37.640
<v Speaker 7>potential bounce back are energy prices and housing prices. So

0:20:37.800 --> 0:20:40.119
<v Speaker 7>energy we do a lot of work on that. We

0:20:40.200 --> 0:20:42.920
<v Speaker 7>think that we're kind of stuck in this seventy five

0:20:43.080 --> 0:20:45.760
<v Speaker 7>ninety five range and also in the fallitude weaken up,

0:20:45.760 --> 0:20:47.800
<v Speaker 7>so we're not worried about energy. And also it's important

0:20:47.840 --> 0:20:50.560
<v Speaker 7>in the US we have natural gas. The trades at

0:20:50.560 --> 0:20:53.600
<v Speaker 7>the equivalent about eighteen dollars a barrel, so it's highly

0:20:53.640 --> 0:20:56.720
<v Speaker 7>deflationary here, not sure the West of the world. Rest

0:20:56.760 --> 0:20:58.920
<v Speaker 7>of the world, natural gas trades roughly be to you,

0:20:59.560 --> 0:21:02.040
<v Speaker 7>why is it same as well? So we're not concerned

0:21:02.080 --> 0:21:04.560
<v Speaker 7>about that. And I think the chances of housing prices

0:21:04.600 --> 0:21:07.280
<v Speaker 7>taking off like a rocket when mortgage rates are seven

0:21:07.280 --> 0:21:10.520
<v Speaker 7>and a half percent is close to zero. So we're

0:21:10.600 --> 0:21:14.360
<v Speaker 7>not concerned about a reacceleration. And then we know that

0:21:14.720 --> 0:21:20.240
<v Speaker 7>the current measurements for CPI and PCE or flawed because

0:21:20.280 --> 0:21:23.120
<v Speaker 7>of their shelter component. And also we don't like pc

0:21:23.320 --> 0:21:26.240
<v Speaker 7>because it has twenty percent medical. But I would say,

0:21:26.240 --> 0:21:29.160
<v Speaker 7>we don't stick this on our website, but we calculate

0:21:29.240 --> 0:21:33.320
<v Speaker 7>pceh R, so that corrects for shelter and that's only

0:21:33.320 --> 0:21:34.960
<v Speaker 7>a two point six percent right now.

0:21:35.119 --> 0:21:38.600
<v Speaker 2>And well CPI R is only one percent year over year,

0:21:38.760 --> 0:21:39.359
<v Speaker 2>right correct.

0:21:39.480 --> 0:21:42.879
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, So we think inflation is already behind that problem

0:21:42.920 --> 0:21:46.920
<v Speaker 7>behind us, and no signs again looking at the forward indicators,

0:21:46.920 --> 0:21:51.080
<v Speaker 7>because we were massively concerned about inflation early twenty one.

0:21:51.720 --> 0:21:54.159
<v Speaker 7>So we think that's behind us. Whether the FED raises

0:21:54.200 --> 0:21:56.840
<v Speaker 7>one more time or not, we don't think it's that critical.

0:21:56.880 --> 0:22:00.560
<v Speaker 7>But we do think the global type monetary power is

0:22:00.600 --> 0:22:02.960
<v Speaker 7>an issue, and I think that's what is driving long

0:22:03.040 --> 0:22:04.320
<v Speaker 7>term rates up right now.

0:22:04.359 --> 0:22:08.480
<v Speaker 2>So all right, let's get then to Europe, what's the

0:22:08.480 --> 0:22:10.520
<v Speaker 2>inflation picture look like to you over there? If it's

0:22:10.560 --> 0:22:16.399
<v Speaker 2>subdued here, but you mentioned we have deflationary natural gas prices,

0:22:16.480 --> 0:22:20.040
<v Speaker 2>and of course they don't. How does inflation look to

0:22:20.080 --> 0:22:21.199
<v Speaker 2>you on the continent?

0:22:21.440 --> 0:22:23.719
<v Speaker 7>Well, I think that that's that is a real problem

0:22:23.760 --> 0:22:26.280
<v Speaker 7>because they've had an enormous increase over the last two years,

0:22:26.280 --> 0:22:30.520
<v Speaker 7>and that's they're less competitive. But our biggest concern is

0:22:30.560 --> 0:22:33.879
<v Speaker 7>that global monetary base. And we will publish this on

0:22:33.880 --> 0:22:36.360
<v Speaker 7>our website as well. Although you can get the data

0:22:36.440 --> 0:22:37.800
<v Speaker 7>you can just if you can add you can get

0:22:37.800 --> 0:22:40.080
<v Speaker 7>it on the terminal as well, but it's still good

0:22:40.080 --> 0:22:42.320
<v Speaker 7>to publish it because even I haven't focused on enough

0:22:42.920 --> 0:22:45.679
<v Speaker 7>dropped by seven hundred billion in the last two months,

0:22:46.240 --> 0:22:48.760
<v Speaker 7>which is an enormous drop. That's now what what dropped

0:22:49.520 --> 0:22:54.000
<v Speaker 7>the global monetary base? Okay, so the global central Bank

0:22:54.160 --> 0:22:57.560
<v Speaker 7>sucked out seven hundred billion dollars of capital.

0:22:57.200 --> 0:22:58.920
<v Speaker 2>And we've seen them two fall here as well.

0:22:59.000 --> 0:23:00.800
<v Speaker 7>Right, yeah, so those are bit more lag But if

0:23:00.840 --> 0:23:02.520
<v Speaker 7>you look at the I would suggest look at the

0:23:02.520 --> 0:23:05.800
<v Speaker 7>monitary base because that's the leading indicator, because it's the

0:23:06.000 --> 0:23:09.480
<v Speaker 7>major component. And I would also say don't ignore this

0:23:09.640 --> 0:23:12.400
<v Speaker 7>so I've made a good call to least our clients.

0:23:12.760 --> 0:23:15.440
<v Speaker 7>When the FED interviewed, I said, okay, that's the sign

0:23:15.600 --> 0:23:19.480
<v Speaker 7>back in pandemic. They're adding, you know, one point two

0:23:19.560 --> 0:23:24.000
<v Speaker 7>trillion of capital to the capital market every year. That's

0:23:24.080 --> 0:23:27.919
<v Speaker 7>just enormous. That's like Warren Buffett, you know, putting is

0:23:27.920 --> 0:23:31.520
<v Speaker 7>one hundred billion to work ten times. So I wouldn't

0:23:31.520 --> 0:23:35.320
<v Speaker 7>ignore the monetary base and those radical changes in particular,

0:23:35.560 --> 0:23:37.840
<v Speaker 7>if they're small, you can ignore them. So we think

0:23:37.920 --> 0:23:41.080
<v Speaker 7>that's the key driver behind this big rise in rates,

0:23:41.320 --> 0:23:43.760
<v Speaker 7>and we did that work because really, frankly, our call

0:23:43.840 --> 0:23:46.240
<v Speaker 7>was that we're going to drop and it was dead wrong.

0:23:46.560 --> 0:23:48.440
<v Speaker 7>So said, well, how can this be? And that's when

0:23:48.480 --> 0:23:51.000
<v Speaker 7>we discovered, because we should have been tracking it as

0:23:51.000 --> 0:23:54.560
<v Speaker 7>well more closely, that the ECB has just done this

0:23:54.720 --> 0:23:58.480
<v Speaker 7>massive QT and that affects all rates in the in

0:23:58.520 --> 0:24:02.679
<v Speaker 7>the world. That it's our bond is eighty five percent

0:24:02.680 --> 0:24:05.639
<v Speaker 7>correlated with all the benchmark bonds. So coming up with

0:24:05.680 --> 0:24:09.160
<v Speaker 7>an explanation just focused on the US is not going

0:24:09.200 --> 0:24:11.560
<v Speaker 7>to be correct when you're talking about the world bond market.

0:24:11.880 --> 0:24:15.919
<v Speaker 1>So what happens to interest rates? When can I refinance

0:24:16.000 --> 0:24:17.159
<v Speaker 1>my mortgage at.

0:24:17.000 --> 0:24:22.239
<v Speaker 2>A lower rate. Well is single minded and focused on

0:24:22.359 --> 0:24:25.560
<v Speaker 2>the high mortgage rate that he got. It's adjustable though,

0:24:25.920 --> 0:24:28.320
<v Speaker 2>because he was figuring at the time, well, next year,

0:24:28.320 --> 0:24:30.120
<v Speaker 2>I'll be able to refinance at the lower rate.

0:24:30.840 --> 0:24:33.439
<v Speaker 7>Yes, so I have adjustable rate mortgages as well. So

0:24:33.480 --> 0:24:36.800
<v Speaker 7>I'm very focused on this. But I don't think that

0:24:36.880 --> 0:24:39.400
<v Speaker 7>we're going to get any relief till probably mid next

0:24:39.480 --> 0:24:41.399
<v Speaker 7>year because of the Fed's about a year behind what

0:24:41.440 --> 0:24:43.600
<v Speaker 7>they should be doing. So you should have cut when

0:24:43.600 --> 0:24:48.160
<v Speaker 7>the banking crisis started. And that is another reason why

0:24:48.200 --> 0:24:50.480
<v Speaker 7>they should pause, and I think that maybe even they'll

0:24:50.480 --> 0:24:53.680
<v Speaker 7>figure this out, is that the banking system is under

0:24:53.680 --> 0:24:57.159
<v Speaker 7>pressure being downgraded. They were downgraded this morning. They should

0:24:57.160 --> 0:25:00.439
<v Speaker 7>be focused on that. So I think we'll get relief

0:25:00.560 --> 0:25:03.280
<v Speaker 7>next year. But the thing to watch, and the reason

0:25:03.880 --> 0:25:06.919
<v Speaker 7>that we're sticking with our bullish call on interest rates,

0:25:07.480 --> 0:25:10.720
<v Speaker 7>is that we do think that the European economy is

0:25:10.760 --> 0:25:15.440
<v Speaker 7>going to crack. They have mostly floating rate mortgages, way

0:25:15.480 --> 0:25:17.840
<v Speaker 7>more than they do in the United States. They have

0:25:17.920 --> 0:25:22.479
<v Speaker 7>this natural gas problem. Germany is levered to China, and

0:25:22.560 --> 0:25:27.280
<v Speaker 7>their ECB is a single mandate central bank, so they're

0:25:27.280 --> 0:25:30.440
<v Speaker 7>going to continue to tighten really probably tell their economies crack,

0:25:30.800 --> 0:25:33.240
<v Speaker 7>So I think that's when rates will come down. Long

0:25:33.359 --> 0:25:36.719
<v Speaker 7>rates will come down when it becomes more obvious that

0:25:37.040 --> 0:25:39.720
<v Speaker 7>Europe has headed into a recession, which is our call

0:25:39.800 --> 0:25:42.920
<v Speaker 7>that they're almost certainly going to probably even substantial.

0:25:42.440 --> 0:25:44.440
<v Speaker 1>Despite all the Americans over their traveling.

0:25:45.119 --> 0:25:48.640
<v Speaker 7>At the margin, that does help. Yeah, the US definitely

0:25:48.680 --> 0:25:51.119
<v Speaker 7>does prop up the rest of the world. But still,

0:25:51.560 --> 0:25:54.000
<v Speaker 7>when you think about all those factors are negative, then

0:25:54.200 --> 0:25:55.399
<v Speaker 7>what is the bowl case for you?

0:25:55.880 --> 0:25:58.760
<v Speaker 1>So how about China? Just because we've been talking a

0:25:58.760 --> 0:26:00.960
<v Speaker 1>lot over the last several weeks report on the weaker

0:26:01.000 --> 0:26:04.600
<v Speaker 1>than expected economic data out of China, how do you

0:26:04.680 --> 0:26:05.480
<v Speaker 1>kind of view all.

0:26:05.320 --> 0:26:08.920
<v Speaker 7>That well when with regard to oil, which is what

0:26:09.000 --> 0:26:12.320
<v Speaker 7>we mostly focus on China about, is that the thing

0:26:12.359 --> 0:26:16.359
<v Speaker 7>to keep in mind is that, of course reporters have

0:26:16.400 --> 0:26:19.480
<v Speaker 7>to write stories. So why is oil down? We talked

0:26:19.520 --> 0:26:21.840
<v Speaker 7>them about this, Well, it's because of China. Well it's

0:26:21.960 --> 0:26:25.080
<v Speaker 7>usually not the case. They have very slow growth in

0:26:25.160 --> 0:26:28.320
<v Speaker 7>oil demand, that's very sticky, so we don't think that

0:26:28.320 --> 0:26:32.320
<v Speaker 7>that demand's going to drop, But we also think that

0:26:32.320 --> 0:26:34.639
<v Speaker 7>that could be positive for long term rates because the

0:26:35.480 --> 0:26:37.919
<v Speaker 7>I'm sorry that the Chinese Central Bank is definitely going

0:26:37.920 --> 0:26:41.160
<v Speaker 7>to cut rates. There's a disappointment when they cut last time,

0:26:41.240 --> 0:26:43.640
<v Speaker 7>but they're going to continue to cut rates. They've really

0:26:43.680 --> 0:26:47.400
<v Speaker 7>hammered their economy through regulation. It's a good example why

0:26:47.480 --> 0:26:50.560
<v Speaker 7>maybe capitalism is superior to communism, and so when you

0:26:50.600 --> 0:26:53.239
<v Speaker 7>do that, it hurts economic growth, and so they're going

0:26:53.280 --> 0:26:56.680
<v Speaker 7>to offset it with monetary policy, and that should also

0:26:56.720 --> 0:26:58.760
<v Speaker 7>be bullish for long term rates.

0:26:59.480 --> 0:27:01.440
<v Speaker 1>And I'm just reading a notes here, real quick, thirty

0:27:01.560 --> 0:27:05.359
<v Speaker 1>seconds fourth quarter for the stock market SMP range of

0:27:05.359 --> 0:27:07.080
<v Speaker 1>forty five hundred to five thousand.

0:27:07.480 --> 0:27:10.560
<v Speaker 7>Correct, although I would say that that's dependent on rates

0:27:10.600 --> 0:27:14.600
<v Speaker 7>at least stop rising, you know, as fast as they

0:27:14.640 --> 0:27:16.600
<v Speaker 7>have been over the last month or so.

0:27:17.160 --> 0:27:19.480
<v Speaker 1>Okay, and anything added Jackson Hole.

0:27:20.280 --> 0:27:21.840
<v Speaker 7>We think it's going to be a non event because

0:27:21.880 --> 0:27:23.800
<v Speaker 7>the Feds already signaled what they want to do. They

0:27:23.840 --> 0:27:27.640
<v Speaker 7>have the dot plot, and we know there's a dubvish camp,

0:27:28.080 --> 0:27:30.640
<v Speaker 7>so that we won't get a repeat of last year

0:27:30.680 --> 0:27:34.000
<v Speaker 7>where Pallet comes out and kind of talks the market

0:27:34.000 --> 0:27:34.640
<v Speaker 7>down right.

0:27:34.720 --> 0:27:36.439
<v Speaker 2>Interesting, all right, Jake, So you don't think there'll be

0:27:36.480 --> 0:27:37.320
<v Speaker 2>a hawkish bent.

0:27:37.920 --> 0:27:40.280
<v Speaker 7>Little bit, but not anything significant like it was.

0:27:40.359 --> 0:27:41.919
<v Speaker 2>Lasting right home about right.

0:27:41.960 --> 0:27:43.439
<v Speaker 1>But let's send the team out there anyway.

0:27:43.560 --> 0:27:45.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, two teams, Yeah sure yeah.

0:27:45.720 --> 0:27:49.240
<v Speaker 1>Jay Hatfield, CEO, founder and portfolio manager does it all.

0:27:49.760 --> 0:27:52.720
<v Speaker 1>Infrastructure capital management one of the smarter discussions Matt and

0:27:52.760 --> 0:27:55.399
<v Speaker 1>I have as we try to think about these markets

0:27:55.400 --> 0:27:56.240
<v Speaker 1>and navigate through that.

0:27:56.240 --> 0:28:01.000
<v Speaker 2>And I like his website infracap infracap infracap Funds dot com.

0:28:01.040 --> 0:28:02.680
<v Speaker 1>Boom there you go, go check it out.

0:28:03.760 --> 0:28:07.159
<v Speaker 4>You're listening to the team Ken's are live program Bloomberg

0:28:07.200 --> 0:28:10.600
<v Speaker 4>Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,

0:28:10.640 --> 0:28:13.800
<v Speaker 4>the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen

0:28:13.880 --> 0:28:16.000
<v Speaker 4>on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

0:28:17.760 --> 0:28:19.679
<v Speaker 1>All right, let's get this banking thing. We got S

0:28:19.720 --> 0:28:21.800
<v Speaker 1>and P coming in better relate than never, I guess,

0:28:21.880 --> 0:28:24.760
<v Speaker 1>kind of saying, hey, there's challenges for the regional banking

0:28:25.040 --> 0:28:27.720
<v Speaker 1>sector and they take down some names. Here, let's break

0:28:27.760 --> 0:28:30.880
<v Speaker 1>it down with our experts. That would be Herman Chant,

0:28:31.000 --> 0:28:33.880
<v Speaker 1>and that would be Arnold. Herman joins us live here

0:28:33.880 --> 0:28:38.120
<v Speaker 1>in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Arnoldlekuda making use of

0:28:38.160 --> 0:28:42.040
<v Speaker 1>the zoom functionality out there. He joins us as well. Arnold.

0:28:42.080 --> 0:28:45.160
<v Speaker 1>Let's start with you on the credit side. Where do

0:28:45.240 --> 0:28:49.440
<v Speaker 1>you see kind of the pressure that we're seeing across

0:28:49.480 --> 0:28:53.000
<v Speaker 1>the regional bank space in the credit side.

0:28:54.240 --> 0:28:57.120
<v Speaker 8>Yes, I think some of these actions by Moody's and

0:28:57.240 --> 0:29:00.240
<v Speaker 8>SMP I think just gives us a reminder that this

0:29:01.160 --> 0:29:02.720
<v Speaker 8>you know, now, I guess I wouldn't call it a

0:29:02.720 --> 0:29:06.360
<v Speaker 8>crisis anymore, but you know, these issues still exist where

0:29:06.360 --> 0:29:09.920
<v Speaker 8>there is pressure on these banks and their balance sheets. Right,

0:29:10.240 --> 0:29:15.240
<v Speaker 8>funding costs are rising, deposits have fled. Yes, So I

0:29:15.240 --> 0:29:18.040
<v Speaker 8>think a lot of these things that the rating agencies

0:29:18.080 --> 0:29:21.840
<v Speaker 8>are coming out with now are Yeah, it is backward looking,

0:29:22.280 --> 0:29:25.520
<v Speaker 8>but it is a reflection that, you know, all things

0:29:25.560 --> 0:29:27.800
<v Speaker 8>aren't all fine and dandy in regional bank land.

0:29:27.920 --> 0:29:29.440
<v Speaker 1>So if if I wanted to go out I'm a

0:29:29.480 --> 0:29:32.479
<v Speaker 1>regional bank of reasonable credit quality, can I go out

0:29:32.480 --> 0:29:35.520
<v Speaker 1>there and raise capital in your credit markets? And if so, like,

0:29:36.120 --> 0:29:37.720
<v Speaker 1>am I going to really have to pay through the nose?

0:29:38.760 --> 0:29:42.840
<v Speaker 8>Oh? I mean, you know, the the before March regional

0:29:42.880 --> 0:29:46.000
<v Speaker 8>bank debt it was, you know, we're in a totally

0:29:46.000 --> 0:29:48.560
<v Speaker 8>different world. It used to be they trade really tight

0:29:48.760 --> 0:29:50.760
<v Speaker 8>and you couldn't get enough of it right, and it

0:29:50.880 --> 0:29:53.600
<v Speaker 8>trade tight for the credit rating. Now we're in this

0:29:53.680 --> 0:29:57.200
<v Speaker 8>opposite world. Of you know it trades wider. I mean

0:29:57.400 --> 0:30:00.120
<v Speaker 8>things have you gotten better obviously since the heydays of

0:30:00.840 --> 0:30:04.520
<v Speaker 8>March and May, but you know, compared to before, spreads

0:30:04.520 --> 0:30:07.560
<v Speaker 8>are wider, and a lot of these will be hit

0:30:07.640 --> 0:30:11.120
<v Speaker 8>with new debt requirements. So we expect debt issuans to

0:30:11.320 --> 0:30:13.040
<v Speaker 8>pick up for a lot of these. And we have

0:30:13.240 --> 0:30:15.440
<v Speaker 8>seen a couple of regional banks to tap the market.

0:30:15.520 --> 0:30:18.880
<v Speaker 8>We have Charles Schwap today and then we had what

0:30:18.960 --> 0:30:21.520
<v Speaker 8>is it, Huntington and P and C come you know,

0:30:21.560 --> 0:30:23.520
<v Speaker 8>in the in the past week or so. So it

0:30:23.600 --> 0:30:26.840
<v Speaker 8>is available. If the debt does come uh, you know,

0:30:26.880 --> 0:30:29.760
<v Speaker 8>with with some a little bit meat on the bone.

0:30:29.840 --> 0:30:31.840
<v Speaker 8>Let's let's put it that, then there will be demand.

0:30:32.680 --> 0:30:35.440
<v Speaker 2>Herman, what do you think about the uh, you know,

0:30:35.520 --> 0:30:38.520
<v Speaker 2>the banks that were specifically downgraded by S and P.

0:30:38.680 --> 0:30:44.240
<v Speaker 2>You've got Key Corp, Comerica, Valley National, umb and Associated

0:30:44.280 --> 0:30:46.120
<v Speaker 2>Bank Corp R So.

0:30:47.360 --> 0:30:51.040
<v Speaker 9>I would say that the the issues that that the

0:30:51.120 --> 0:30:53.840
<v Speaker 9>rating agencies have highlighted a couple of them, Key Corp

0:30:53.920 --> 0:30:57.560
<v Speaker 9>co America, they're facing some weaker needitors margins than some

0:30:57.640 --> 0:31:00.960
<v Speaker 9>others that in the in our our peer group. That's

0:31:01.000 --> 0:31:05.200
<v Speaker 9>really driven by some higher deposit costs. They actually these

0:31:05.200 --> 0:31:09.640
<v Speaker 9>two banks in particular miss have mishedged their balance sheet

0:31:09.680 --> 0:31:12.560
<v Speaker 9>a bit where they were expecting interest rates to decline

0:31:13.600 --> 0:31:16.480
<v Speaker 9>potentially next year, and it seems like we're in a

0:31:16.680 --> 0:31:19.800
<v Speaker 9>higher for longer environment, so that's actually crimping their margins

0:31:19.840 --> 0:31:21.120
<v Speaker 9>a bit more than some others.

0:31:21.520 --> 0:31:25.080
<v Speaker 2>The is the deposit flight the kind of thing that's

0:31:25.080 --> 0:31:30.200
<v Speaker 2>still ongoing. You know. I was actually at a cocktail party,

0:31:30.880 --> 0:31:34.040
<v Speaker 2>shocking I think like three or four weeks ago, with

0:31:35.120 --> 0:31:39.280
<v Speaker 2>a group of ladies talking about how they got you know,

0:31:39.520 --> 0:31:42.160
<v Speaker 2>high interest rates in this one bank account. And I

0:31:42.200 --> 0:31:46.160
<v Speaker 2>saw one woman, you know, just over the course of

0:31:46.160 --> 0:31:49.720
<v Speaker 2>a conversation at like six pm on a Saturday, say,

0:31:49.800 --> 0:31:52.320
<v Speaker 2>you know what, I'm just gonna move like one hundred

0:31:52.360 --> 0:31:54.760
<v Speaker 2>thousand dollars from my savings account and my bank that

0:31:54.800 --> 0:31:58.040
<v Speaker 2>I've always used into this I can't remember if it

0:31:58.120 --> 0:32:02.080
<v Speaker 2>was the Sacks account or some other, but you know,

0:32:02.160 --> 0:32:04.640
<v Speaker 2>four and a half percent yielding savings account and just

0:32:04.720 --> 0:32:05.440
<v Speaker 2>boom done.

0:32:05.600 --> 0:32:05.800
<v Speaker 7>Right.

0:32:06.600 --> 0:32:09.800
<v Speaker 9>So what we've seen since the fallout in margin April

0:32:09.880 --> 0:32:14.600
<v Speaker 9>is that the deposit actually the deposit bounces have actually

0:32:14.720 --> 0:32:19.320
<v Speaker 9>stabilized across the industry. And how that's happened is they're

0:32:19.360 --> 0:32:22.080
<v Speaker 9>just paying up for those deposits. So you're you're seeing

0:32:23.200 --> 0:32:27.920
<v Speaker 9>high interest savings accounts, high savings accounts approaching five even

0:32:27.960 --> 0:32:32.160
<v Speaker 9>above five percent CDs above five percent for one year term,

0:32:32.240 --> 0:32:36.680
<v Speaker 9>fifteen month term. So that's really the gist of it.

0:32:37.400 --> 0:32:39.880
<v Speaker 9>The banks are paying up and that's really crimping that

0:32:39.960 --> 0:32:44.400
<v Speaker 9>dig's margins and pressuring profitability going forward.

0:32:45.760 --> 0:32:48.200
<v Speaker 1>Arnold, are you seeing any investors come in in your

0:32:48.280 --> 0:32:51.600
<v Speaker 1>market and saying, boy, I see some real value here

0:32:51.640 --> 0:32:53.760
<v Speaker 1>in some of these bonds.

0:32:54.600 --> 0:32:58.719
<v Speaker 8>Well, I mean I think, you know, definitely for you know,

0:32:59.160 --> 0:33:02.640
<v Speaker 8>in a market let's say into until from May to August, right,

0:33:03.320 --> 0:33:07.040
<v Speaker 8>it was a classic risk on uh treasure yields, higher

0:33:07.280 --> 0:33:10.640
<v Speaker 8>spreads tightening and and and the world where everything seemed

0:33:10.680 --> 0:33:13.160
<v Speaker 8>to be pricing to perfection. One of the things that

0:33:13.200 --> 0:33:16.760
<v Speaker 8>are we're still cheap is is kind of the regional banks,

0:33:16.960 --> 0:33:20.040
<v Speaker 8>right and given what they went through. So so yeah,

0:33:20.240 --> 0:33:23.120
<v Speaker 8>I think there is a lot of demand for regionals,

0:33:23.480 --> 0:33:25.920
<v Speaker 8>but I think at the right price, right, And and

0:33:26.000 --> 0:33:27.880
<v Speaker 8>if you look at credit spreads now where they are,

0:33:28.120 --> 0:33:30.440
<v Speaker 8>you know, tighter if you would have woken up today

0:33:30.560 --> 0:33:33.320
<v Speaker 8>versus you know, not knowing what happened from from you know,

0:33:33.480 --> 0:33:35.520
<v Speaker 8>all of this year. You wouldn't even know that there

0:33:35.600 --> 0:33:38.160
<v Speaker 8>was a banking crisis this year, right, given given how

0:33:38.200 --> 0:33:41.400
<v Speaker 8>things have recovered, So you know, I think at the

0:33:41.480 --> 0:33:45.920
<v Speaker 8>right price, they'll be demand. But you know, things have

0:33:46.080 --> 0:33:48.120
<v Speaker 8>you know, we've had a bit of a kind of

0:33:48.520 --> 0:33:50.720
<v Speaker 8>you know, everything sell off in August, right that that's

0:33:50.800 --> 0:33:54.800
<v Speaker 8>coincided with these rating downgrades, rate negative outlook cuts. But

0:33:55.400 --> 0:33:57.800
<v Speaker 8>I think things had been pricing a little bit for perfection.

0:33:58.000 --> 0:34:00.560
<v Speaker 8>But I think if if these new issues Who's come

0:34:00.600 --> 0:34:02.920
<v Speaker 8>to market with a bit of a little bit of

0:34:02.920 --> 0:34:05.480
<v Speaker 8>meat on the bone, then I think you'll see investors

0:34:05.480 --> 0:34:06.720
<v Speaker 8>step up and go through.

0:34:07.000 --> 0:34:09.600
<v Speaker 2>The stocks haven't really recovered, herman. If you look at

0:34:09.760 --> 0:34:13.920
<v Speaker 2>if I look at KRE for example, which is the

0:34:16.040 --> 0:34:19.920
<v Speaker 2>regional s and P spider s and P Regional Banking ETF,

0:34:20.440 --> 0:34:23.480
<v Speaker 2>it's still at the same levels that it hit after

0:34:24.760 --> 0:34:27.600
<v Speaker 2>you know, the big problems that we had, the drop

0:34:27.680 --> 0:34:28.600
<v Speaker 2>that we saw in March.

0:34:30.440 --> 0:34:32.799
<v Speaker 9>The stocks have rebounded a bit from the lows back

0:34:32.840 --> 0:34:36.040
<v Speaker 9>in April and May, but still well below.

0:34:37.680 --> 0:34:39.080
<v Speaker 2>Pre SVB.

0:34:40.600 --> 0:34:41.120
<v Speaker 9>Fallout.

0:34:41.239 --> 0:34:44.719
<v Speaker 2>So I mean the KRE dropped to forty four and

0:34:44.760 --> 0:34:48.000
<v Speaker 2>a half on March thirteenth and right now it's trading

0:34:48.080 --> 0:34:50.040
<v Speaker 2>at forty three sixty.

0:34:50.280 --> 0:34:50.520
<v Speaker 1>Right.

0:34:50.760 --> 0:34:54.680
<v Speaker 9>Valuations are really reflecting the tough environment that Moody's and

0:34:54.800 --> 0:35:03.520
<v Speaker 9>SMP have articulated, So tougher profitability, weaker land. Regulatory requirements

0:35:03.520 --> 0:35:05.920
<v Speaker 9>are going to increase, and we still haven't really seen

0:35:06.520 --> 0:35:09.600
<v Speaker 9>the shoe to drop on the asset quality side, in

0:35:09.640 --> 0:35:13.200
<v Speaker 9>particular office commercial real estate quite yet. So there's going

0:35:13.239 --> 0:35:15.000
<v Speaker 9>to be a lot of headwinds and the banks will

0:35:15.080 --> 0:35:20.320
<v Speaker 9>just need to navigate that and any upside really is

0:35:20.840 --> 0:35:24.600
<v Speaker 9>going to be dependent on where interest rates go and

0:35:24.680 --> 0:35:26.080
<v Speaker 9>potentially cuts down the road.

0:35:26.160 --> 0:35:29.640
<v Speaker 1>So Herman, what do we know about the regulatory changes

0:35:29.719 --> 0:35:30.320
<v Speaker 1>coming along?

0:35:31.160 --> 0:35:35.279
<v Speaker 9>So the regulators in the FED have have put out

0:35:35.440 --> 0:35:44.080
<v Speaker 9>a thousand page documents that outlines some changes to the

0:35:44.160 --> 0:35:48.360
<v Speaker 9>regulatory requirements for particularly the largest banks and the largest

0:35:48.360 --> 0:35:51.239
<v Speaker 9>regional banks of one hundred billion dollars and above. That's

0:35:51.320 --> 0:35:55.799
<v Speaker 9>really focused on tightening how the capital ratios are calculated,

0:35:55.880 --> 0:35:59.600
<v Speaker 9>including unrealized losses in the securities portfolio in the af

0:35:59.640 --> 0:36:05.959
<v Speaker 9>secure portfolio into capital calculations, increasing the debt stack, as

0:36:06.160 --> 0:36:09.200
<v Speaker 9>Arnold mentioned a bit earlier, but there's still going to

0:36:09.239 --> 0:36:12.560
<v Speaker 9>be some other areas that the regulators are focused on.

0:36:13.200 --> 0:36:16.840
<v Speaker 9>I recall during the SBB crisis that uninjured deposits was

0:36:16.880 --> 0:36:19.600
<v Speaker 9>a big thing, So the FDIC is looking at that,

0:36:20.160 --> 0:36:22.799
<v Speaker 9>and then the Fed is also going to come out

0:36:22.840 --> 0:36:25.400
<v Speaker 9>with some regulatory issues on.

0:36:25.600 --> 0:36:26.600
<v Speaker 1>Liquidity as well.

0:36:26.680 --> 0:36:28.880
<v Speaker 9>So there's still more down the road and so the

0:36:28.920 --> 0:36:30.680
<v Speaker 9>banks will just need to have to manage.

0:36:30.360 --> 0:36:33.800
<v Speaker 1>Through it all right, guys, I really appreciate getting the

0:36:33.880 --> 0:36:37.440
<v Speaker 1>update there again, S and P. Following Moody's and doungrading

0:36:37.480 --> 0:36:41.480
<v Speaker 1>some of those regional banks. Really nothing new in kind

0:36:41.480 --> 0:36:44.480
<v Speaker 1>of what they're doing, but simply kind of reflecting kind

0:36:44.480 --> 0:36:46.839
<v Speaker 1>of what I believe the market's known for some time.

0:36:46.880 --> 0:36:50.160
<v Speaker 1>Hermit Chin, Arnold, Cokuda. They cover the regional banks, all

0:36:50.160 --> 0:36:54.800
<v Speaker 1>the banks on the regional side for Bloomberg Intelligence, Arnold

0:36:54.800 --> 0:36:57.440
<v Speaker 1>on the credit side, Herman on the equity side. So

0:36:57.440 --> 0:37:00.600
<v Speaker 1>we got you all covered there on the regional bank space.

0:37:00.960 --> 0:37:04.080
<v Speaker 4>You're listening to the tape Cat's are live program Bloomberg

0:37:04.120 --> 0:37:07.719
<v Speaker 4>Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

0:37:07.800 --> 0:37:11.000
<v Speaker 4>tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

0:37:11.040 --> 0:37:13.879
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0:37:13.880 --> 0:37:19.840
<v Speaker 4>flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:37:20.000 --> 0:37:23.439
<v Speaker 1>Wet's talk Microsoft. It would like to buy Activision, in fact,

0:37:23.480 --> 0:37:25.520
<v Speaker 1>so much so that it's got a sixty nine billion

0:37:25.520 --> 0:37:29.960
<v Speaker 1>dollar transaction on the table, needs regulatory approval, and the

0:37:30.080 --> 0:37:33.840
<v Speaker 1>UK was really a sticking point. But maybe they're rethinking

0:37:33.880 --> 0:37:36.160
<v Speaker 1>their strategy here. Maybe this steal gets done. So let's

0:37:36.200 --> 0:37:38.600
<v Speaker 1>go to Jen Ree. She's a senior litigation analyst. She's

0:37:38.600 --> 0:37:41.319
<v Speaker 1>covering all the anti trust stuff for Bloomberg Intelligency. Joins

0:37:41.360 --> 0:37:44.399
<v Speaker 1>us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. So, Jen,

0:37:44.560 --> 0:37:46.400
<v Speaker 1>it looks like the UK has taken a little bit

0:37:46.400 --> 0:37:49.480
<v Speaker 1>of an about face and may take a fresh look

0:37:49.480 --> 0:37:50.000
<v Speaker 1>at this deal.

0:37:50.480 --> 0:37:52.640
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, and that looks like what's happening. As a matter

0:37:52.680 --> 0:37:54.480
<v Speaker 6>of fact, they've been looking at it again for about

0:37:54.480 --> 0:37:57.160
<v Speaker 6>a month, and I think Microsoft actually tried to push

0:37:57.200 --> 0:38:00.160
<v Speaker 6>this through on a second look without doing what it's

0:38:00.200 --> 0:38:03.239
<v Speaker 6>done now, which has made some concessions to transfer some

0:38:03.280 --> 0:38:06.680
<v Speaker 6>games to Ubisoft, and that didn't really work. We thought

0:38:06.719 --> 0:38:09.160
<v Speaker 6>maybe there'd be a final report by August twenty ninth

0:38:09.200 --> 0:38:11.840
<v Speaker 6>by the UK. Now it's been pushed to October because

0:38:11.880 --> 0:38:13.840
<v Speaker 6>the deal's been restructured and they have to take a

0:38:13.880 --> 0:38:16.560
<v Speaker 6>look at that the new concession. But it's looking pretty

0:38:16.560 --> 0:38:18.920
<v Speaker 6>good from Microsoft. You know, they've been talking to the UK,

0:38:19.160 --> 0:38:22.400
<v Speaker 6>they know where they are. There's been open communication and

0:38:22.440 --> 0:38:24.840
<v Speaker 6>I really doubt they'd be moving forward with this unless

0:38:24.880 --> 0:38:26.440
<v Speaker 6>they thought that they were going to get clearance at

0:38:26.440 --> 0:38:27.239
<v Speaker 6>the end of this road.

0:38:28.160 --> 0:38:30.680
<v Speaker 1>Look just looking at the stocking Ubisoft, which trades on

0:38:30.760 --> 0:38:33.120
<v Speaker 1>French Exchange up eight and a half percent today.

0:38:33.680 --> 0:38:38.239
<v Speaker 2>So are those concessions going to be what the UK

0:38:38.400 --> 0:38:41.840
<v Speaker 2>wanted to see? Isn't it all about Call of Duty?

0:38:41.880 --> 0:38:43.760
<v Speaker 2>I mean does anything else matter?

0:38:44.280 --> 0:38:46.440
<v Speaker 6>I mean, really this was about Call of Duty, but

0:38:46.560 --> 0:38:48.640
<v Speaker 6>the UK has made it beyond. You know, they don't

0:38:48.640 --> 0:38:51.480
<v Speaker 6>know what's coming out from Activision. These are content creators, right,

0:38:51.760 --> 0:38:54.240
<v Speaker 6>and maybe it'll be the Activision that creates the next

0:38:54.239 --> 0:38:56.799
<v Speaker 6>Call of Duty or you know, the next really popular game.

0:38:57.120 --> 0:38:59.520
<v Speaker 6>So they were really just concerned more about the future

0:38:59.719 --> 0:39:01.600
<v Speaker 6>because they think the future will be more of what

0:39:01.840 --> 0:39:04.440
<v Speaker 6>they call these Triple A games. And also the future

0:39:04.480 --> 0:39:07.239
<v Speaker 6>will be streaming games through the cloud rather than downloading

0:39:07.239 --> 0:39:10.680
<v Speaker 6>them to hardware. So that's what they're trying to protect,

0:39:10.800 --> 0:39:14.120
<v Speaker 6>and that's what they've done by requiring or Microsoft agreeing

0:39:14.520 --> 0:39:17.840
<v Speaker 6>that they will transfer all of the Activision games, including

0:39:17.840 --> 0:39:20.279
<v Speaker 6>Call of Duty for the next fifteen years to Ubisoft,

0:39:20.480 --> 0:39:23.160
<v Speaker 6>so Ubisoft can then license those games to be streamed

0:39:23.160 --> 0:39:23.760
<v Speaker 6>through the cloud.

0:39:24.080 --> 0:39:25.400
<v Speaker 2>Where are we staying in the US?

0:39:26.000 --> 0:39:28.360
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, well, the US, you know, it's been really quiet

0:39:28.360 --> 0:39:30.000
<v Speaker 6>and you don't see much in the news. There's still

0:39:30.040 --> 0:39:33.120
<v Speaker 6>an appeal. The FDC is still fighting this deal in

0:39:33.160 --> 0:39:35.720
<v Speaker 6>the US. They lost in court and then they lost

0:39:35.800 --> 0:39:38.640
<v Speaker 6>their attempt to get an emergency stay. After they lost

0:39:38.640 --> 0:39:40.719
<v Speaker 6>their attempt to lock the deal, they do have an

0:39:40.760 --> 0:39:43.360
<v Speaker 6>appeal pending. The briefing is going to be done in September.

0:39:44.400 --> 0:39:46.839
<v Speaker 6>You could probably have oral argument maybe by the end

0:39:46.880 --> 0:39:50.359
<v Speaker 6>of this year. I mean, if this deal gets uk

0:39:50.520 --> 0:39:53.439
<v Speaker 6>a clearance in October and the deal closes, it means

0:39:53.480 --> 0:39:56.480
<v Speaker 6>the FTC's appeal will be gone going after the deal's

0:39:56.480 --> 0:39:58.160
<v Speaker 6>already consummated and integrated.

0:39:58.640 --> 0:40:02.239
<v Speaker 1>So is that typically happen. There's still going to be

0:40:02.280 --> 0:40:03.680
<v Speaker 1>a review of a deal that's closed.

0:40:04.239 --> 0:40:07.279
<v Speaker 6>It can happen, and the FTC has done that. I'm

0:40:07.320 --> 0:40:09.640
<v Speaker 6>a little surprised by it, you know, after they lost

0:40:09.640 --> 0:40:11.520
<v Speaker 6>in the district court and then lost their effort to

0:40:11.520 --> 0:40:14.760
<v Speaker 6>get an emergency stay. I didn't really think they'd continue

0:40:14.800 --> 0:40:18.120
<v Speaker 6>to pursue this appeal because they lost pretty soundly in court.

0:40:18.160 --> 0:40:20.400
<v Speaker 6>I mean, the judge really said, you just don't really

0:40:20.440 --> 0:40:23.160
<v Speaker 6>have any evidence to prove out your theories of harm

0:40:23.200 --> 0:40:26.080
<v Speaker 6>in this case. And I don't see this. I see

0:40:26.080 --> 0:40:28.400
<v Speaker 6>it as a losing battle and I'm a little bit

0:40:28.440 --> 0:40:30.680
<v Speaker 6>surprised that they're continuing on that road. They may still

0:40:30.719 --> 0:40:34.239
<v Speaker 6>withdraw it after this agreement with the UK that might

0:40:34.320 --> 0:40:37.040
<v Speaker 6>give them the ammunition they need to say, Okay, things

0:40:37.080 --> 0:40:37.839
<v Speaker 6>are different now.

0:40:38.000 --> 0:40:40.880
<v Speaker 1>Is it political so the Biden can go on the

0:40:40.920 --> 0:40:43.320
<v Speaker 1>campaign trail and say I'm tough on business.

0:40:43.440 --> 0:40:47.320
<v Speaker 2>Of course, it's political. It's always political and asking nice.

0:40:48.160 --> 0:40:51.440
<v Speaker 6>Road question, you know, anti trust decisions on mergers are

0:40:51.440 --> 0:40:54.000
<v Speaker 6>not supposed to be political, and really, honestly, in the

0:40:54.040 --> 0:40:57.400
<v Speaker 6>past they mostly were not. I would say now it

0:40:57.440 --> 0:41:00.239
<v Speaker 6>has moved into the political realm for sure. I mean,

0:41:00.239 --> 0:41:03.160
<v Speaker 6>you have a political viewpoint right now that we've allowed

0:41:03.160 --> 0:41:05.319
<v Speaker 6>too much consolidation in the market and we need to

0:41:05.320 --> 0:41:07.040
<v Speaker 6>stop it. We need to slow down M and A

0:41:07.040 --> 0:41:09.879
<v Speaker 6>activity in many industries, and that's why we're seeing these

0:41:09.880 --> 0:41:12.520
<v Speaker 6>aggressive actions by the FTC and DOJ.

0:41:12.760 --> 0:41:16.160
<v Speaker 1>And that is political all right, So what else do

0:41:16.200 --> 0:41:17.920
<v Speaker 1>we have out there? So it looks like this deal's

0:41:18.040 --> 0:41:19.879
<v Speaker 1>moving forward? What else is in your hell?

0:41:19.960 --> 0:41:25.680
<v Speaker 2>Let me just get quickly. So if the FTC and CON,

0:41:26.239 --> 0:41:28.560
<v Speaker 2>I mean clearly they're going to appeal and appeal and appeal,

0:41:28.640 --> 0:41:32.200
<v Speaker 2>but at some point that's over. And if the UK

0:41:32.520 --> 0:41:37.200
<v Speaker 2>approves this, who else has to give it the blessing?

0:41:37.239 --> 0:41:39.960
<v Speaker 2>Their blessing? I mean, is there an EU regulator that

0:41:40.000 --> 0:41:42.480
<v Speaker 2>they need? Is there a Chinese regular that they need?

0:41:42.640 --> 0:41:45.680
<v Speaker 2>Is there, you know, Asian African regulator that they need?

0:41:46.000 --> 0:41:48.280
<v Speaker 2>Does Australia want to block the deal?

0:41:48.360 --> 0:41:50.439
<v Speaker 6>I mean, you know they have everybody else they need.

0:41:50.480 --> 0:41:53.440
<v Speaker 6>And it's really telling because almost all of these jurisdictions,

0:41:53.480 --> 0:41:55.359
<v Speaker 6>and some of which are very serious when it comes

0:41:55.400 --> 0:41:59.399
<v Speaker 6>to antitrust, like Brazil cleared this deal without concessions. Now

0:41:59.440 --> 0:42:01.399
<v Speaker 6>the EU is saying, look, this is a new deal.

0:42:01.440 --> 0:42:04.799
<v Speaker 6>It's been restructured, and we reached a settlement with Microsoft

0:42:04.800 --> 0:42:06.960
<v Speaker 6>and we need to make sure this doesn't impact our settlement,

0:42:07.040 --> 0:42:08.839
<v Speaker 6>so we may have to take another look. I don't

0:42:08.880 --> 0:42:10.640
<v Speaker 6>think that's going to be hindrance to getting the deal

0:42:10.680 --> 0:42:13.040
<v Speaker 6>closed by the deal's end in October.

0:42:12.600 --> 0:42:15.960
<v Speaker 1>Though, And just refresh our memory. The UK gets a

0:42:16.000 --> 0:42:19.200
<v Speaker 1>look at this deal because of Brexit, so they're no

0:42:19.239 --> 0:42:22.080
<v Speaker 1>longer abide by the EU review of the deal, right

0:42:22.480 --> 0:42:23.560
<v Speaker 1>A right.

0:42:23.600 --> 0:42:25.719
<v Speaker 6>That's a thing about the UK used to be part

0:42:25.760 --> 0:42:28.200
<v Speaker 6>of the EU, and it was part of Brussels refew.

0:42:28.520 --> 0:42:30.560
<v Speaker 6>It got you know, glombed in with all the other

0:42:30.880 --> 0:42:33.719
<v Speaker 6>EU countries that were part of that. You know, there

0:42:33.760 --> 0:42:36.799
<v Speaker 6>were thresholds that could be triggered in just the UK previously,

0:42:36.880 --> 0:42:41.200
<v Speaker 6>even before Brexit, but most big deals were assessed by

0:42:41.239 --> 0:42:42.520
<v Speaker 6>the EU and not by UK.

0:42:42.600 --> 0:42:45.480
<v Speaker 1>Oh well, that maybe makes Brexit all worth it to

0:42:45.560 --> 0:42:47.839
<v Speaker 1>get to review deals and destroy the economy.

0:42:49.120 --> 0:42:51.399
<v Speaker 2>By the way, in terms of not political, I'm looking

0:42:51.480 --> 0:42:57.560
<v Speaker 2>at the FTC board here, Lena Kahan. It says she's

0:42:57.560 --> 0:43:00.520
<v Speaker 2>a Democrat, went to ya Law school, by the way.

0:43:00.680 --> 0:43:04.439
<v Speaker 2>Rebecca Slaughter, she's a Democrat. That's right, went to Yale

0:43:04.480 --> 0:43:05.279
<v Speaker 2>Law school, by the way.

0:43:05.400 --> 0:43:06.160
<v Speaker 1>I'm sensing something.

0:43:06.200 --> 0:43:10.799
<v Speaker 2>Alvarro Bedoya, he's a Democrat, a Democrat went to Yale

0:43:10.840 --> 0:43:11.280
<v Speaker 2>law school.

0:43:12.719 --> 0:43:13.400
<v Speaker 1>What's the deal?

0:43:13.560 --> 0:43:15.560
<v Speaker 2>I mean, if it's not political, why do they stack

0:43:15.640 --> 0:43:17.600
<v Speaker 2>the board of Democrats who went to Yale.

0:43:17.880 --> 0:43:22.319
<v Speaker 6>Well, any administration right can appoint commissioners, right, and there

0:43:22.320 --> 0:43:25.160
<v Speaker 6>are five commissioners and no more than three can be

0:43:25.200 --> 0:43:27.759
<v Speaker 6>from one political party. So generally, when we have a

0:43:27.800 --> 0:43:31.799
<v Speaker 6>Democrats are vacant, the other two are vacant. Right now,

0:43:31.880 --> 0:43:35.879
<v Speaker 6>there's some talk of nominees that an appointees coming, right,

0:43:36.200 --> 0:43:38.440
<v Speaker 6>but there's really no pressure on Biden to do that

0:43:38.520 --> 0:43:40.640
<v Speaker 6>and move forward with that. I think he probably will,

0:43:40.800 --> 0:43:42.200
<v Speaker 6>but at the end of the day, it doesn't really

0:43:42.239 --> 0:43:44.520
<v Speaker 6>matter because it requires a majority vote. So when you

0:43:44.560 --> 0:43:47.239
<v Speaker 6>have three Democrats and two Republicans, which will eventually have

0:43:47.280 --> 0:43:50.279
<v Speaker 6>once those two spots are filled, you're still likely going

0:43:50.320 --> 0:43:53.120
<v Speaker 6>to have the majority vote be along the Democratic lines.

0:43:53.120 --> 0:43:56.000
<v Speaker 6>And these three have pretty much aligned on almost everything

0:43:56.040 --> 0:43:56.399
<v Speaker 6>so far.

0:43:56.600 --> 0:43:59.440
<v Speaker 1>And in my world of median telecommunications, it's the Federal

0:43:59.440 --> 0:44:03.040
<v Speaker 1>Communication Commission, and it's exact same same situation. You know,

0:44:03.000 --> 0:44:06.960
<v Speaker 1>whoever's in power gets the gets the role there. And

0:44:07.040 --> 0:44:10.440
<v Speaker 1>Yale is Yale the best law schools most rankings.

0:44:10.120 --> 0:44:11.160
<v Speaker 2>Certainly, I don't know.

0:44:11.200 --> 0:44:13.960
<v Speaker 6>Apparently they like the anti trust regulators.

0:44:13.880 --> 0:44:16.000
<v Speaker 1>On the rankings, isn't it. I guess it's I.

0:44:15.920 --> 0:44:18.120
<v Speaker 6>Think it's up there. I don't know, yeah, but I

0:44:18.320 --> 0:44:20.560
<v Speaker 6>think I think it's up there. I'm look, it's Yale yeah,

0:44:20.640 --> 0:44:21.840
<v Speaker 6>of course it's great.

0:44:21.680 --> 0:44:25.920
<v Speaker 1>Exactly all right. So what else on antitrust front are

0:44:25.920 --> 0:44:27.320
<v Speaker 1>you looking at here? What are some of the big

0:44:27.640 --> 0:44:29.520
<v Speaker 1>trades out there that are still need some approval?

0:44:29.640 --> 0:44:32.280
<v Speaker 6>You know, we're looking at Adobe Figma now that obviously

0:44:32.360 --> 0:44:34.719
<v Speaker 6>one of the one is a private company, but that's

0:44:34.719 --> 0:44:37.399
<v Speaker 6>been sort of lagging. I suspect the dj is likely

0:44:37.440 --> 0:44:40.080
<v Speaker 6>to challenge that deal. You know, we're waiting for Kroger

0:44:40.080 --> 0:44:43.520
<v Speaker 6>and Albertson's. That's before the FTC. I wouldn't be surprised

0:44:43.520 --> 0:44:45.399
<v Speaker 6>at all if the FDC went to court to try

0:44:45.400 --> 0:44:47.640
<v Speaker 6>to block that deal as well, and trial will start

0:44:47.640 --> 0:44:51.680
<v Speaker 6>in October. In the Jet Blue Spirit deal, who cares?

0:44:53.040 --> 0:44:54.840
<v Speaker 2>Do we care?

0:44:54.840 --> 0:44:57.560
<v Speaker 1>In the markets that are don't get a lot of

0:44:57.640 --> 0:45:01.480
<v Speaker 1>service and you care about I want both jet Blue

0:45:01.520 --> 0:45:03.239
<v Speaker 1>and Spirit to serve my right.

0:45:03.560 --> 0:45:05.879
<v Speaker 6>I mean they have two very different models, right. Jet

0:45:05.960 --> 0:45:09.080
<v Speaker 6>Blue is considered a low cost carrier, whereas Spirit's ultra

0:45:09.120 --> 0:45:11.759
<v Speaker 6>low cost, which really means everything's all a part. Right,

0:45:12.040 --> 0:45:15.080
<v Speaker 6>you can get the absolute cheapest fair without any other perks,

0:45:15.120 --> 0:45:17.279
<v Speaker 6>no food, no luggage, nothing else, and you can't pick

0:45:17.280 --> 0:45:21.080
<v Speaker 6>your seat. There is a set of consumers that prefers

0:45:21.120 --> 0:45:23.520
<v Speaker 6>to have that option right for when they travel. And

0:45:23.600 --> 0:45:25.960
<v Speaker 6>what will happen is that this deal, at least the

0:45:26.000 --> 0:45:28.840
<v Speaker 6>allegation is, will take that option out of many markets,

0:45:29.280 --> 0:45:32.280
<v Speaker 6>or reduce the option from two which we're Frontier and Spirit,

0:45:32.360 --> 0:45:34.640
<v Speaker 6>down to just one, which would be Frontier when Jet

0:45:34.640 --> 0:45:35.399
<v Speaker 6>Blue takes over.

0:45:35.760 --> 0:45:39.319
<v Speaker 2>On the other hand, it's hard for Jet Blue and

0:45:39.640 --> 0:45:45.040
<v Speaker 2>also for Spirit and a Frontier to compete with the

0:45:45.480 --> 0:45:50.640
<v Speaker 2>duopoly that we essentially have here. Right, You've got Delta, United,

0:45:50.800 --> 0:45:55.680
<v Speaker 2>American American who hog all the slots, you know.

0:45:55.719 --> 0:45:58.080
<v Speaker 6>And that's what Jet Blue says, right, And that's their argument,

0:45:58.160 --> 0:46:00.560
<v Speaker 6>And that's been an argument an airline merger with some

0:46:00.600 --> 0:46:02.680
<v Speaker 6>of the low cost carriers and the ultra low cost

0:46:02.760 --> 0:46:05.840
<v Speaker 6>carriers in the past. I will say that in twenty

0:46:05.920 --> 0:46:08.440
<v Speaker 6>years that I've been watching this, the argument that we

0:46:08.520 --> 0:46:10.759
<v Speaker 6>need to merge in order to better compete with the

0:46:10.760 --> 0:46:14.040
<v Speaker 6>top guys never seems to work. It just doesn't really

0:46:14.080 --> 0:46:16.160
<v Speaker 6>work because if you take that merger on its own,

0:46:16.160 --> 0:46:19.280
<v Speaker 6>and it's anti competitive and might have a price increasing

0:46:19.360 --> 0:46:22.920
<v Speaker 6>effect or an output reducing effect, it doesn't really matter

0:46:22.960 --> 0:46:25.200
<v Speaker 6>that much. It can't be outweighed by that argument.

0:46:25.480 --> 0:46:27.520
<v Speaker 1>I'm looking at the Spirit map. I mean they fly

0:46:28.080 --> 0:46:31.600
<v Speaker 1>pretty much everywhere, I mean, including the Caribbean and Central

0:46:31.640 --> 0:46:34.120
<v Speaker 1>American stuff like that. So it's a much bigger, more

0:46:34.120 --> 0:46:35.440
<v Speaker 1>denser map than I thought.

0:46:35.520 --> 0:46:40.480
<v Speaker 2>So, but only in this essentially, you know, only in

0:46:40.600 --> 0:46:41.360
<v Speaker 2>sort of North.

0:46:41.120 --> 0:46:43.840
<v Speaker 1>America, yeah, right, North and Central America. Yeah, so not

0:46:44.400 --> 0:46:45.799
<v Speaker 1>any international stuff other than.

0:46:45.760 --> 0:46:47.680
<v Speaker 2>And jef Leu has now branched out, so now they

0:46:47.680 --> 0:46:50.560
<v Speaker 2>go to London, they go to Amsterdam, and they go

0:46:50.600 --> 0:46:51.080
<v Speaker 2>to Paris.

0:46:51.760 --> 0:46:53.520
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, but that was hindered a little bit because the

0:46:53.560 --> 0:46:57.120
<v Speaker 6>Department of Justice challenged their northeast alliance with American right,

0:46:57.120 --> 0:46:58.359
<v Speaker 6>which kind of hindered some of that.

0:46:58.440 --> 0:47:00.120
<v Speaker 1>All right, Jen, thanks so much, We appreciate it. And

0:47:00.200 --> 0:47:02.320
<v Speaker 1>re senior litigation analyst Bloomberg Intelligence.

0:47:02.680 --> 0:47:05.799
<v Speaker 4>You're listening to the tape Cat's are live program Bloomberg

0:47:05.840 --> 0:47:09.440
<v Speaker 4>Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

0:47:09.480 --> 0:47:12.719
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0:47:12.760 --> 0:47:15.560
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0:47:15.600 --> 0:47:20.759
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0:47:21.320 --> 0:47:24.040
<v Speaker 1>One of the areas of the market that we've been

0:47:24.120 --> 0:47:26.680
<v Speaker 1>talking a lot about over the last several years, increasingly

0:47:26.719 --> 0:47:29.040
<v Speaker 1>so is the private credit market. We all know about

0:47:29.040 --> 0:47:32.480
<v Speaker 1>the private equity business, but the private credit business has

0:47:32.520 --> 0:47:35.880
<v Speaker 1>been a been getting a lot of capital flows and

0:47:35.920 --> 0:47:37.879
<v Speaker 1>has been very active. I wanted to get a little

0:47:37.880 --> 0:47:40.120
<v Speaker 1>bit more details on that market. Jackie Ward joins us.

0:47:40.160 --> 0:47:44.840
<v Speaker 1>She's a director of private Investments for umb Bank Family Wealth.

0:47:45.360 --> 0:47:48.160
<v Speaker 1>She joins us via zoom. Jackie talk to us about

0:47:48.239 --> 0:47:51.920
<v Speaker 1>how you guys at umb you know, address and deal

0:47:52.120 --> 0:47:55.080
<v Speaker 1>and play in the private credit business.

0:47:56.040 --> 0:47:58.719
<v Speaker 10>Absolutely, thanks for having me here at you and b

0:47:58.840 --> 0:48:00.600
<v Speaker 10>There's a number of different ways we kind of play

0:48:00.640 --> 0:48:03.560
<v Speaker 10>in the private credit business. In my world, we have

0:48:03.640 --> 0:48:06.160
<v Speaker 10>a couple of bank owned funds that invest in private credit,

0:48:06.440 --> 0:48:09.800
<v Speaker 10>so we're regularly looking at opportunities in the private credit space,

0:48:09.960 --> 0:48:13.640
<v Speaker 10>mezzanine debt, junior lean debt, and working with companies that way.

0:48:14.160 --> 0:48:16.680
<v Speaker 10>From umb Bank standpoint as a senior lender, we also

0:48:16.760 --> 0:48:19.120
<v Speaker 10>often work with junior capital providers to fill out the

0:48:19.120 --> 0:48:21.760
<v Speaker 10>rest of the capital stack, so we get to interact

0:48:21.800 --> 0:48:24.360
<v Speaker 10>with private credit, whether it's from a senior position or

0:48:24.440 --> 0:48:27.160
<v Speaker 10>actually doing investment in private credit ourselves.

0:48:27.640 --> 0:48:32.080
<v Speaker 1>So my understanding is the private credit business really kind

0:48:32.080 --> 0:48:35.160
<v Speaker 1>of took hold in terms of growing after the Great

0:48:35.200 --> 0:48:38.520
<v Speaker 1>Financial crisis, when a lot of the banks, from a

0:48:38.560 --> 0:48:40.920
<v Speaker 1>regulatory standpoint had to pull back a little bit from

0:48:40.960 --> 0:48:43.480
<v Speaker 1>certain types of loans and in terms of what they

0:48:43.520 --> 0:48:46.000
<v Speaker 1>could own on their balance sheet. Is that still the

0:48:46.040 --> 0:48:49.280
<v Speaker 1>primary driver of what's driving the growth of this business.

0:48:50.560 --> 0:48:52.040
<v Speaker 10>I think it's a little bit of both. I think

0:48:52.080 --> 0:48:54.799
<v Speaker 10>two thousand and eight put private credit on the map

0:48:54.840 --> 0:48:56.719
<v Speaker 10>because the question in two thousand and eight was when

0:48:56.760 --> 0:48:59.640
<v Speaker 10>our big bank's going to come back into lending, and

0:48:59.680 --> 0:49:01.439
<v Speaker 10>I think the answer was it might take some time,

0:49:01.480 --> 0:49:03.880
<v Speaker 10>and so you saw the launch of private credit. But

0:49:03.960 --> 0:49:06.319
<v Speaker 10>these days, I think private credit is growing a lot

0:49:06.440 --> 0:49:10.400
<v Speaker 10>just around direct lending efforts. Also, as banks kind of

0:49:10.440 --> 0:49:13.319
<v Speaker 10>tightened in general, you're seeing less senior stretched at you're

0:49:13.360 --> 0:49:16.040
<v Speaker 10>seeing more debt fall into the private credit space, and

0:49:16.040 --> 0:49:19.400
<v Speaker 10>you're also seeing unitraanch financing become a huge spot in

0:49:19.440 --> 0:49:22.719
<v Speaker 10>the market. So with syndications down in general, a lot

0:49:22.719 --> 0:49:25.879
<v Speaker 10>of companies are looking for a single provider that can

0:49:25.920 --> 0:49:29.360
<v Speaker 10>provide a senior junior credit type blend through one instrument

0:49:29.440 --> 0:49:32.200
<v Speaker 10>versus working with two different providers, and that's driving a

0:49:32.200 --> 0:49:33.040
<v Speaker 10>lot of growth as well.

0:49:33.320 --> 0:49:36.279
<v Speaker 1>You know, Jamie Dimond, I think probably talking his own book,

0:49:36.320 --> 0:49:38.640
<v Speaker 1>but you know, He kind of says, hey, this private

0:49:38.640 --> 0:49:41.600
<v Speaker 1>credit market's not regulated. Do we really know what's going

0:49:41.640 --> 0:49:43.520
<v Speaker 1>on out there? How do you respond to that?

0:49:45.560 --> 0:49:48.520
<v Speaker 10>You know, private credit, these are funds. They're regulated as funds,

0:49:48.560 --> 0:49:51.279
<v Speaker 10>and asset managers are not regulated by bank regulators. I

0:49:51.320 --> 0:49:54.520
<v Speaker 10>think there's a few different ways to look at that. One,

0:49:54.560 --> 0:49:56.719
<v Speaker 10>they're not regulated by bank regulators because they have a

0:49:56.760 --> 0:49:59.720
<v Speaker 10>different source of funds. So private credit funds are also

0:50:00.120 --> 0:50:02.600
<v Speaker 10>or raising money directly to invest in private credit, it's

0:50:02.600 --> 0:50:05.640
<v Speaker 10>opposed to using deposit or money. And because of that

0:50:05.680 --> 0:50:07.440
<v Speaker 10>they have they're able to take a little bit different

0:50:07.719 --> 0:50:10.359
<v Speaker 10>outlook and potentially a longer point of view. I do

0:50:10.440 --> 0:50:12.879
<v Speaker 10>think with any private and investment, you know, the lack

0:50:12.920 --> 0:50:14.879
<v Speaker 10>of regulation makes it really important to know who you're

0:50:14.920 --> 0:50:17.640
<v Speaker 10>working with. You know, private credit funds that have long

0:50:17.719 --> 0:50:20.080
<v Speaker 10>histories or attached institutions like you and b that have

0:50:20.160 --> 0:50:22.759
<v Speaker 10>long histories tend to do well because of course we're

0:50:22.840 --> 0:50:25.560
<v Speaker 10>we're working with a broader market. I think it just

0:50:25.600 --> 0:50:27.880
<v Speaker 10>goes back to diligence and knowing who you're working with

0:50:27.920 --> 0:50:29.440
<v Speaker 10>and who you're investing your dollars with.

0:50:30.040 --> 0:50:33.960
<v Speaker 1>What types of deals are you guys seeing these days?

0:50:35.400 --> 0:50:36.960
<v Speaker 10>You know, in our group, we're seeing a lot of

0:50:37.000 --> 0:50:41.080
<v Speaker 10>deals in the manufacturing distribution space, especially in distribution where

0:50:41.080 --> 0:50:43.279
<v Speaker 10>you might be dealing with an asset like company that

0:50:43.320 --> 0:50:45.319
<v Speaker 10>still has a lot of working capital, needs a lot

0:50:45.320 --> 0:50:48.160
<v Speaker 10>of growth. We're also seeing a lot of Bolton deals,

0:50:48.239 --> 0:50:51.440
<v Speaker 10>so in our portfolio, the vast majority of our companies

0:50:51.480 --> 0:50:54.399
<v Speaker 10>or platform companies, so we're actively looking for new opportunities

0:50:54.440 --> 0:50:56.920
<v Speaker 10>and looking for M and A opportunities and it's a

0:50:56.960 --> 0:50:58.799
<v Speaker 10>great way for us to put in more junior debt.

0:50:58.920 --> 0:51:01.560
<v Speaker 10>So with the credit kind of tightening, some of that

0:51:01.640 --> 0:51:04.080
<v Speaker 10>senior stretched at falling into our space is creating a

0:51:04.120 --> 0:51:06.080
<v Speaker 10>lot of opportunity in both of those industries.

0:51:06.640 --> 0:51:09.319
<v Speaker 1>And do most of the deals that come across your

0:51:09.440 --> 0:51:12.800
<v Speaker 1>desk are they from Are they private equity sponsored deals? Primarily?

0:51:13.680 --> 0:51:16.399
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, we work primarily with private equity sponsors as well

0:51:16.440 --> 0:51:19.640
<v Speaker 10>as you know LBO type funds. We're often working with

0:51:19.719 --> 0:51:22.319
<v Speaker 10>them or independent sponsors where they're taking down the entire

0:51:22.360 --> 0:51:25.720
<v Speaker 10>opportunity and they're looking for partners in the capital stack.

0:51:26.480 --> 0:51:29.359
<v Speaker 1>Interesting, So what is deal flow like these days? Because

0:51:29.360 --> 0:51:31.560
<v Speaker 1>we've heard from you know, some of the larger publicly

0:51:31.600 --> 0:51:35.960
<v Speaker 1>traded investment banks that not a lot getting done per se,

0:51:36.040 --> 0:51:38.200
<v Speaker 1>What are you seeing in your market?

0:51:39.320 --> 0:51:40.200
<v Speaker 2>You know, we were.

0:51:40.120 --> 0:51:42.000
<v Speaker 10>Kind of in the lower middle market and we're actually

0:51:42.000 --> 0:51:44.520
<v Speaker 10>seeing a lot of opportunity and most of the deals

0:51:44.520 --> 0:51:47.000
<v Speaker 10>that we're investing in, you know, we're looking at enterprise

0:51:47.120 --> 0:51:49.920
<v Speaker 10>values of one hundred million or under and activity in

0:51:49.920 --> 0:51:52.120
<v Speaker 10>that space. You still have a lot of companies owned

0:51:52.160 --> 0:51:54.839
<v Speaker 10>by generations that are looking to make exits. You still

0:51:54.880 --> 0:51:57.000
<v Speaker 10>have a lot of companies that are seeing an opportunity

0:51:57.040 --> 0:51:59.319
<v Speaker 10>for M and A. So we're still seeing a good

0:51:59.400 --> 0:52:01.200
<v Speaker 10>number of deals in our space. I think as you

0:52:01.280 --> 0:52:04.040
<v Speaker 10>move up market, the markets get a little bit tighter

0:52:04.080 --> 0:52:06.680
<v Speaker 10>and a little bit harder to raise debt. So we're

0:52:06.760 --> 0:52:08.279
<v Speaker 10>very happy to be in the space we're in.

0:52:08.760 --> 0:52:10.640
<v Speaker 1>And you guys are you and b you're based in

0:52:10.760 --> 0:52:14.040
<v Speaker 1>Kansas City, right, yeah? And so do you do I mean,

0:52:14.280 --> 0:52:17.239
<v Speaker 1>do you try to lend your regional expertise to the

0:52:17.239 --> 0:52:20.000
<v Speaker 1>private equity sponsors out there? The companies out there is

0:52:20.000 --> 0:52:22.239
<v Speaker 1>that's kind of where you guys, you know, kind of

0:52:22.280 --> 0:52:22.840
<v Speaker 1>do your knitting.

0:52:24.120 --> 0:52:25.640
<v Speaker 10>So you know, we get to work with the private

0:52:25.680 --> 0:52:27.799
<v Speaker 10>equity groups in a lot of different ways. We have

0:52:27.880 --> 0:52:29.680
<v Speaker 10>ways on the commercial bank side that we work with

0:52:29.680 --> 0:52:32.799
<v Speaker 10>our private equity groups. Our bank is largely located, you know,

0:52:32.880 --> 0:52:36.080
<v Speaker 10>Midwest focus groups like mine, We operate coast to coast,

0:52:36.120 --> 0:52:39.080
<v Speaker 10>working with different private equity sponsors on direct and investment

0:52:39.160 --> 0:52:43.120
<v Speaker 10>in their deals, either using mezzanine or minority equity. But

0:52:43.200 --> 0:52:45.120
<v Speaker 10>we often you know, U and B Bank is one

0:52:45.160 --> 0:52:47.960
<v Speaker 10>large family, so we're often working with all the different divisions,

0:52:48.360 --> 0:52:50.120
<v Speaker 10>you know, in concert to make sure that we're looking

0:52:50.120 --> 0:52:50.640
<v Speaker 10>at the deal.

0:52:50.520 --> 0:52:51.000
<v Speaker 4>The right way.

0:52:51.800 --> 0:52:54.880
<v Speaker 1>Interesting. So here, we've got a big, big increase in

0:52:54.880 --> 0:52:57.239
<v Speaker 1>the interest rates over the past twelve to eighteen months.

0:52:57.280 --> 0:53:00.600
<v Speaker 1>How's that impacted your business maybe, what kind of deals

0:53:00.640 --> 0:53:02.520
<v Speaker 1>you see, what kind of structures you put in place.

0:53:04.239 --> 0:53:07.280
<v Speaker 10>You know, in our world, a lot of our deals,

0:53:07.280 --> 0:53:09.680
<v Speaker 10>you know, slightly higher interest rate interest only. We still

0:53:09.719 --> 0:53:11.920
<v Speaker 10>have a lot of room and flexibility on that spread.

0:53:12.320 --> 0:53:14.080
<v Speaker 10>I know one thing that we're watching just in the

0:53:14.120 --> 0:53:16.439
<v Speaker 10>market in general is private credit is doing really well

0:53:16.520 --> 0:53:19.880
<v Speaker 10>right now. I think there are a lot of funds

0:53:19.880 --> 0:53:22.160
<v Speaker 10>that might have put out notes twelve to eighteen months

0:53:22.200 --> 0:53:24.799
<v Speaker 10>ago in a different brain environment. So we're keeping a

0:53:24.840 --> 0:53:27.120
<v Speaker 10>really close eye on defaults coming into the back end

0:53:27.120 --> 0:53:28.799
<v Speaker 10>of this year and early next year to make sure

0:53:28.840 --> 0:53:31.120
<v Speaker 10>that doesn't have an impact on them, but kind of

0:53:31.160 --> 0:53:33.200
<v Speaker 10>going back to the source of funding for a lot

0:53:33.239 --> 0:53:36.920
<v Speaker 10>of private credit because we're not utilizing deposit dollars in

0:53:36.920 --> 0:53:39.160
<v Speaker 10>that sense, we have a different kind of cost structure

0:53:39.160 --> 0:53:41.200
<v Speaker 10>that we get to compare against, and that gives us

0:53:41.239 --> 0:53:42.520
<v Speaker 10>a little bit more flexibility.

0:53:43.000 --> 0:53:45.600
<v Speaker 1>And so for your funds, who's a typical investor.

0:53:47.160 --> 0:53:49.440
<v Speaker 10>For our funds? So on our family wealth side, we

0:53:49.520 --> 0:53:52.319
<v Speaker 10>do have a number of single asset holdings that tend

0:53:52.360 --> 0:53:55.919
<v Speaker 10>to be institutional and high net worth. The primary fund

0:53:55.960 --> 0:53:58.280
<v Speaker 10>we invest private credit out of is a bank owned fund,

0:53:58.719 --> 0:54:01.120
<v Speaker 10>and so a number of years ago that bank seated

0:54:01.200 --> 0:54:03.480
<v Speaker 10>us with cash and we've been recycling that capital since.

0:54:03.680 --> 0:54:03.799
<v Speaker 5>Hi.

0:54:03.880 --> 0:54:07.279
<v Speaker 1>Fascinating stuff. Always love talking about the private credit business again,

0:54:07.320 --> 0:54:10.560
<v Speaker 1>a fast, fast growing business within financial services, seen to

0:54:10.560 --> 0:54:12.719
<v Speaker 1>spring out of nowhere after the Great Financial Crisis and

0:54:12.760 --> 0:54:16.120
<v Speaker 1>now it's a major major player. Jackie Ward, she's the

0:54:16.160 --> 0:54:19.920
<v Speaker 1>director of private Investments at mb Bank Family Wealth.

0:54:21.480 --> 0:54:24.560
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can

0:54:24.600 --> 0:54:28.400
<v Speaker 2>subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever

0:54:28.480 --> 0:54:32.200
<v Speaker 2>podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter

0:54:32.400 --> 0:54:34.880
<v Speaker 2>at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three.

0:54:34.760 --> 0:54:37.160
<v Speaker 1>And I'm fall Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.

0:54:37.280 --> 0:54:39.920
<v Speaker 1>Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at

0:54:39.960 --> 0:54:41.720
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio