Speaker 1: Tom check It Down Man Down Man, Thursday Morning O,
Speaker 1: Beating the Book Podcast, the Megapod, Week eight, Wow, Week
Speaker 1: Gate in the National Football League, Skill Alexander twenty nineteen
Speaker 1: Style with our staples of the show these days. On
Speaker 1: my right, the conciliary to Derek Stevens over at the
Speaker 1: Circus Sports Conglomerates casino moguls that they are. He's also
Speaker 1: the vice president of Operations. By his formal title, It's
Speaker 1: Mike Palm. What's happening in Mike Good Morning, Mega Pod faithful? Uh, Mike,
Speaker 1: We're gonna get a circuit update from you boitarily. And
Speaker 1: on my left Todd wishing of from not only the
Speaker 1: Showtime docuseries Action, but Wednesday appearances on a numbers game.
Speaker 1: Todd more beloved by the day. Thanks for doing this, Todd,
Speaker 1: appreciate it. What's your what's your percentage? Now? In circle
Speaker 1: in the circuit contest? What do you? And one for
Speaker 1: a robot? Whereas Rufus would say completely random, I don't know,
Speaker 1: let's find let's find out, what Rufus says. Making is
Speaker 1: a long away to return to the podcast after at
Speaker 1: least a few years away. We are happy to have
Speaker 1: him back. Ladies and Gentlemen's half of the Bet the
Speaker 1: Process podcast duo along with Jeff ma It's our old
Speaker 1: Fred Rufus. Paybody, what's happening to Rufus Guild? It's been
Speaker 1: a while. How are you doing, man? Where are you
Speaker 1: right now? I'm doing great. I'm in Boston. How do
Speaker 1: you like living in Boston? I went to school there
Speaker 1: for four years. It's you know, it's growing on me
Speaker 1: a little bit. There's a lot of a lot of
Speaker 1: Patriots fans, so's we'll get used to that. Have you
Speaker 1: been through a winter yet? I have? It's not fun.
Speaker 1: I hope you brought a jacket. My freshman and senior years,
Speaker 1: it was minus forty wind chill. Well, luckily we have
Speaker 1: global warming now, so it's it's it's not quite as bad.
Speaker 1: I believe the correct phrases climate change. Allegedly, scientists are conflicted,
Speaker 1: you know how they say it? All right? Let me stop?
Speaker 1: All right? So, Rufus, how is your football season going?
Speaker 1: How is your podcast season going? Are you and Jeff
Speaker 1: having as much fun as you always did with it?
Speaker 1: We we always have fun. We're like, you know, he's
Speaker 1: like my older brother or something. It's it's It's funny.
Speaker 1: It's funny that the feedback we get some people think
Speaker 1: it's you know, some people like more of that, some
Speaker 1: people like less of that. But but we enjoy it.
Speaker 1: And and football season is has been very good for
Speaker 1: college it's been um, you know, more like less good
Speaker 1: for NFL right around break human. Yeah, I think that.
Speaker 1: I that's a common refrain that I that I hear
Speaker 1: from people, at least anecdotally. The NFL has been I
Speaker 1: mean weird is look and even teasers at least as
Speaker 1: we've shown on this show have not gone as well
Speaker 1: as we haven't have had them go in the past seasons.
Speaker 1: We'll find out how we do today before we do
Speaker 1: any of that. Mike Palm Circus Sports Update. Who's in
Speaker 1: the lead, how big is their lead? How far back
Speaker 1: is Todd? Well? Uh so? Overall for the contest, there's
Speaker 1: one entry at twenty seven point skill out of a
Speaker 1: possible Um, where are we at seven thirty five? Yeah? Um?
Speaker 1: And then one entry at twenty six point five, four
Speaker 1: entries at twenty six, two at twenty five I believe,
Speaker 1: nine at twenty four and a half, and another eleven
Speaker 1: at twenty four. How many do you have Todd how
Speaker 1: many points I have? Twenty one and a half. He's
Speaker 1: a lot, you're tat You're tied for a hundred and
Speaker 1: thirty third. In fact, your name appears amongst the fifty
Speaker 1: seven people at twenty one point five when you scroll
Speaker 1: through the results. Look at you, Toddy, how about that
Speaker 1: t Wish and nev one? There you are now as
Speaker 1: far as the second quarter, which we wrap up this weekend, yes,
Speaker 1: we're another hundred and forty three thousand, seven fifty. We
Speaker 1: have two entries at thirteen, we have seven entries at
Speaker 1: twelve and a half, and another sixteen at twelve. So
Speaker 1: there's twenty five entries within one point of the lead
Speaker 1: here as we come into the final week of quarter two.
Speaker 1: And again, for those who don't know, the circuit contest
Speaker 1: features as one of their sort of staples quarterly contests
Speaker 1: for or a hundred forty seven thousand dollars, is it
Speaker 1: turned out you can try and get in November, you
Speaker 1: can try and get in December. On this the record
Speaker 1: and quarter one that one was seventeen and three and
Speaker 1: that was a solo winner, right, yeah, seventeen and a half.
Speaker 1: I think maybe it was seventeen and three. But that's
Speaker 1: the surprising thing was that it was a solo winner. Yea,
Speaker 1: so it's odd. You know, we had one push and
Speaker 1: quarter one. Now we had another push last week and
Speaker 1: quarter two. So it'll be interesting though. I I find
Speaker 1: the long shot as if we'd have another solo winner. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I would think that's the case. It's always interesting, you know,
Speaker 1: we were talking about this on the show the other day,
Speaker 1: how everything in in sports betting is its own discipline
Speaker 1: and pre flop. You know, a TS National Football League
Speaker 1: is its own thing with I guess its own. Some
Speaker 1: might say, you know, it's not a skill, some might
Speaker 1: say it's random. But you know, James Selinas, who I
Speaker 1: always go back on. He won the Super Contest one year,
Speaker 1: he finished third, the next year, finished twenty six the
Speaker 1: couple of years later. He's about the only guy in
Speaker 1: modern history that I can sort of say that about
Speaker 1: where he's been able to be consistent over time. But
Speaker 1: even as we point out, that's still only what over
Speaker 1: two hundred and forty some picks over three seasons, so
Speaker 1: even that could be subject to randomness. Even though he's
Speaker 1: told us his method, and he watches a lot of
Speaker 1: game film and so who knows, but um, that's the story.
Speaker 1: Anybody can catch lightning in a bottle in a four
Speaker 1: week period, that's for sure. Certainly hasn't happened to me. Todd,
Speaker 1: we had a shot, but that we we craped out
Speaker 1: week two of this particular month. So we'll keep that monitored.
Speaker 1: Before we get into our best bets of the week, gentlemen,
Speaker 1: let us do Thursday night football real quick, because people
Speaker 1: want to hear about that first. If you don't have
Speaker 1: an opinion, no biggie Minnesota Vikings sixteen and a half
Speaker 1: point favorites against the Washington Redskins rufus favorite team along
Speaker 1: with mine. If we can't even say that anymore, rufus,
Speaker 1: So you're still an Orioles fan, not a Nationals fan, right,
Speaker 1: so you feel nothing about this Nationals run in the
Speaker 1: World Series. Not much. You know, I actually wanted them
Speaker 1: to win that Wildcard game when they were losing, um,
Speaker 1: just because I was like everybody, all these Nationals fans
Speaker 1: have had a lot of heartbreak in the playoffs over
Speaker 1: the years, and so now that they're on the cusp
Speaker 1: of winning the World Series, I'm not sure how I
Speaker 1: feel that, and I'm not sure how we feel about
Speaker 1: the Redskins at this point. Either the fandom has been
Speaker 1: beaten out of us. I would imagine, honestly, I'm rooting
Speaker 1: for defeat. Um, I'm rooting for embarrassment. I'm rooting for
Speaker 1: anything that will result in systemic change in that organization.
Speaker 1: I agree with that wholeheartedly. Viking sixteen and a half
Speaker 1: point favorites tonight. Some people will, by narrative, call it
Speaker 1: the Kirk Cousins revenge game. It's equally the case Keenum
Speaker 1: revenge game, I would imagine, and Adrian Peterson making it
Speaker 1: returned in Minnesota. But the Redskins aren't very good at
Speaker 1: football and the Vikings uh seem to be quite good
Speaker 1: at it on both sides of the football. Kirk Cousins
Speaker 1: even doing his Redskins stats thing now in the box score.
Speaker 1: But sixteen and a half is a lot of points, rufus,
Speaker 1: we start with you. Any thoughts tonight on the side
Speaker 1: or the total. It is a lot of points. And
Speaker 1: unfortunately I happen to like the Redskins here. Um, I
Speaker 1: think it. The lines actually up to seventeen in some places.
Speaker 1: Now I make it thirteen. It's it feels it's not
Speaker 1: the kind of game I like taking. Um. I feel
Speaker 1: like I've been on these big underdogs way too much
Speaker 1: and the NFL we we you know, there's a lot
Speaker 1: of parody, um, but there's also a few teams that
Speaker 1: are really bad. But at the same time, I don't
Speaker 1: think they're The Redskins are seventeen points worse. UM with
Speaker 1: case team at quarterback who I do think is the
Speaker 1: best quarterback to win right now on that Redskins roster.
Speaker 1: What does worry me is that Kirk Cousins does seem
Speaker 1: to play well. Um. And this is just anecdotally. He
Speaker 1: seems to play well against the bad teams like he
Speaker 1: You know, the Vikings blow out the teams that they're
Speaker 1: supposed to beat. UM. That happened against the Raiders earlier.
Speaker 1: They beat the Eagles at home, um pretty handily. And
Speaker 1: so I'm hoping, um, I'm hoping against the Redskins keep
Speaker 1: it close while somehow still being embarrassing. And you're not
Speaker 1: required to watch the Redskins on your bet in this
Speaker 1: football game. You just sort of look away and see
Speaker 1: if it works out in the end. You did make
Speaker 1: a bet on this though, you did? Actually I did, Okay, Um,
Speaker 1: Mike any thoughts here tonight. It's actually my third best
Speaker 1: bet this game is under forty two tonight. Biill Callahan,
Speaker 1: who when he took over Nebraska thought it prudent to
Speaker 1: take a program that had run the ball for sixty
Speaker 1: years and as seventy at the time, now wants to
Speaker 1: run the ball seventy percent at the time now that
Speaker 1: he's taken over this Redskins, And I don't know if
Speaker 1: I necessarily blame him. Here's why I like this under.
Speaker 1: You have two quarterbacks that played for the other team.
Speaker 1: Who knows Keenam better than Zimmer. He had him for
Speaker 1: a year and went to the NFC title game with him.
Speaker 1: Didn't think they were good enough with Keenum. So I
Speaker 1: think that Zimmer knows Keenum well. Hopefully the Redskins organization
Speaker 1: knows Kirk Cousins well. Uh. In the same like, you
Speaker 1: should be prepared for both these quarterbacks. I agree with Rufus.
Speaker 1: I think it's too high of a number. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: play this game and live bets as a parlay with
Speaker 1: the Redskins and the under. But for what for my
Speaker 1: best bet? Third best bet this week under forty two?
Speaker 1: All Right, we can already mark that down from my
Speaker 1: third best bet under forty two Thursday Night Football. I
Speaker 1: like the SMU game better, by the way, as a bet,
Speaker 1: I'll take SMU. I'll lay the fourteen. Todd, what do
Speaker 1: you think here? I don't want any part of the game,
Speaker 1: but I would say that it's very possible that the
Speaker 1: Vikings get out to a huge lead, run the ball
Speaker 1: incessantly in the second half, and then Washington down twenty three,
Speaker 1: comes down and get the back door to lose by sixteen.
Speaker 1: So I don't want any part of it. In any way.
Speaker 1: I don't want any part of it either, but that
Speaker 1: that's a good point, you know, to Mike's under. The
Speaker 1: Vikings have had a couple of games this year, and
Speaker 1: most notably, perhaps the first game of the season against
Speaker 1: the Falcons, Kirk Cousins dropped back a grand total of
Speaker 1: eleven times through ten passes. I think there was a
Speaker 1: subsequent game Todd and I were talking about this morning.
Speaker 1: We think it was the Oakland game where they really
Speaker 1: were like, we're running and that's all we're doing, so
Speaker 1: they're capable of really taking the air out of the
Speaker 1: ball for sure, Rufus, I saw you leaning in on
Speaker 1: my smu comment you had something to say there? Oh, yeah,
Speaker 1: you know I took uh, I took Houston there. I
Speaker 1: know they have Deeric king is is is out but
Speaker 1: and I think he's worth a lot. But I mean,
Speaker 1: I couldn't resist when I got fourteen and a half. There,
Speaker 1: I understand Dana Holgersson is so bad though, such a
Speaker 1: bad coach. Did you watch the Houston Yukon game last week?
Speaker 1: I didn't un should have won the football game out?
Speaker 1: Yeah that's that's bad. But I mean, did you watch
Speaker 1: Wisconsin Illinois? Do we think Ellinois is a better team
Speaker 1: than Wisconsin? Yeah, so go yourself, Todd. All I'll say
Speaker 1: is I just I can't stand Houston. I just can't
Speaker 1: stand him. But I hope you win. Oh great, thanks,
Speaker 1: that's very nice of you, Todd. Yeah that means you hope. Rufus.
Speaker 1: If you followed Todd's work, you'll know he's a real
Speaker 1: slave to recency. Also know you can you can get
Speaker 1: thirteen and a half with Actually, you know, I got
Speaker 1: a bookmaker. I got it at thirteen, so I'm only
Speaker 1: land thirteen there. Yeah, but thank you, so Gil, like Gil,
Speaker 1: we have so we have we have a nice medal
Speaker 1: between us. That's right, that's right. We have a nice
Speaker 1: meddal fourteen points. We're all winners. That's what we're like, SMU.
Speaker 1: First half, alright, s first half? Little college football? All right,
Speaker 1: So let's do the best bets, Mike. We already have uh,
Speaker 1: your number three best bet, but rufus, let's start with
Speaker 1: your best bet in the NFL week Gate either side
Speaker 1: or total, sir um, unfortun only, I'm gonna have to
Speaker 1: go with the Bengals plus thirteen and a half points.
Speaker 1: This is I've been on the Bengals way too much,
Speaker 1: just like I've been on the Broncos way too much.
Speaker 1: So far, They're They've been bad. Um. Their offensive line
Speaker 1: play has just been absolutely horrendous. They grade is the
Speaker 1: second worst pass blocking in the league. Um. And while
Speaker 1: I expect and to continue to be bad, I don't
Speaker 1: expect them to be like to be quite as bad. Um.
Speaker 1: But who are the Bengals? I mean, going into this season,
Speaker 1: we thought they were we knew them pretty well. The
Speaker 1: team with an average is quarterback in Andy Dalton, who
Speaker 1: wasn't gonna win you games on his own, but with
Speaker 1: an adequate supporting cast. Um good and the supporting cast
Speaker 1: hasn't really been there this year. I mean, obviously they
Speaker 1: haven't had an offensive line and they haven't had one
Speaker 1: in the last three seasons. But their skill position players,
Speaker 1: um have not you know, been as good as in
Speaker 1: previous years. And Andy Dalton has not played as well
Speaker 1: as he had in the past. But the thing is
Speaker 1: he has he's he's an NFL quarterback. I mean he's not. Um,
Speaker 1: he's not. I'm trying to come up with an example
Speaker 1: of he's not Keith Null or any you know, not Hodges.
Speaker 1: He's not. He's not. He's not. But so so I
Speaker 1: just think, um, you know, obviously, the Dolphins are this
Speaker 1: sort of historically bad team that with with really really
Speaker 1: very little talent um across the board, and I don't
Speaker 1: think the Bengals are that team though. Um, if you
Speaker 1: look at the Rams, the Rams are are pretty you know,
Speaker 1: they're okay it offensive tackle, but their offensive line, the
Speaker 1: interior of their offensive line is just as bad. If um,
Speaker 1: it's actually worse than the Bengals and worse than any
Speaker 1: other team with the exception of the Dolphins. So also,
Speaker 1: if you look so far this season, the Bengals, they've
Speaker 1: been outscored by eleven point eight points per game. But
Speaker 1: based on my game grades, they've played to an expectation
Speaker 1: of only UM of only minus seven and a half
Speaker 1: points a game, so that that kind of that translates
Speaker 1: to UM over twenty points. That they've been kind of unlucky.
Speaker 1: And so honestly, this game is largely based on UM.
Speaker 1: It is largely based on the prior, the fact that
Speaker 1: I don't think that Cincinnati is as bad as they've shown. UM.
Speaker 1: If you like, if you like the sort of narrative
Speaker 1: that under a new coach it takes time to adjust,
Speaker 1: which UM, I feel like we've we've heard that with
Speaker 1: the Packers, right, and and the adjustment to a new
Speaker 1: offensive system with about the floor. Uh, you know, we
Speaker 1: haven't really heard that with the Bengals. But if you
Speaker 1: believe that narrative, you think that maybe the Bengals will
Speaker 1: improve a little bit as the season progresses. Either that
Speaker 1: or they'll just give up. So I'm on the Bengals
Speaker 1: plus thirteen a half. I've been on the Bengals a
Speaker 1: couple of times on the road this year, and they
Speaker 1: have gotten They've gotten the cover a couple of times. Uh,
Speaker 1: they'll try to do that again here as a road
Speaker 1: dog catching thirteen at the Rams early game on Sunday.
Speaker 1: By the way, there are you know, always tracking if
Speaker 1: the NFL gets this right, there are eight early games
Speaker 1: and there are excuse me, nine early games in three
Speaker 1: afternoon games. So we're, yeah, we're subjected to that kind
Speaker 1: of schedule in the NFL at least, it's not the
Speaker 1: ten to variety. By the way, Baltimore in Dallas, the
Speaker 1: two teams on buys this week, Mike Palm best, but
Speaker 1: number one. Well, I agree with Todd on this on
Speaker 1: this premise, and we used them last week. We're going
Speaker 1: to use them again. I don't understand why the market
Speaker 1: is not recognizing the difference between Fitzpatrick and rosen Um.
Speaker 1: It's stunning that that the totals will move but the
Speaker 1: sides won't move, when when we know Fitzpatrick is playing Um,
Speaker 1: this still is the Steelers team without a great defense.
Speaker 1: It's still is the Steelers team that doesn't want to
Speaker 1: let Mason Rudolph and I'm assuming he plays throw the
Speaker 1: ball down field, They're gonna go with a lot of
Speaker 1: short passes in the rounds. That type of a run
Speaker 1: based offense. We saw the Dolphins against a very good
Speaker 1: Bills defense last week, be able to sustain drives and
Speaker 1: run the ball and move the chains. I just think
Speaker 1: fourteen is way wide here. I went to your point,
Speaker 1: guilt when when you guess numbers on games. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: thought this game was more like an eight or an
Speaker 1: eight and a half. I couldn't believe it's two touchdowns.
Speaker 1: I'll take the Miami Dolphins on Monday night. It's fortune half.
Speaker 1: Give him the extra half fortune and a half. You
Speaker 1: get the hook. I will say this, and for those
Speaker 1: who didn't listen to Guessing Lines, because I think it's
Speaker 1: probably a similar audience. But and thank you, by the
Speaker 1: way to everybody who listens to it in podcast form
Speaker 1: after we air it on Visa, because still great numbers
Speaker 1: on Guessing Lines, people will find that show as great
Speaker 1: as they've always done based on the numbers. So thank
Speaker 1: you to everybody. But that was not only my worst
Speaker 1: guest of the week, and by worst, I mean furthest Off.
Speaker 1: Let me not call it worst. It was not only
Speaker 1: my furthest Off guest of the year. It is my
Speaker 1: furthest Off guests in the history, the nine year history
Speaker 1: of Guessing Lines. I had seven and a half. Fourteen
Speaker 1: is where it's posted. I've never been that far off
Speaker 1: on a number ever. Guessing now, listen, my number might
Speaker 1: not be right either, but it certainly shouldn't be fourteen.
Speaker 1: There's no justification for it. And Todd, you and I
Speaker 1: were on the air last week again when Brian Flores said,
Speaker 1: we're going with Ryan Fitzpatrick, it's not gonna be Josh
Speaker 1: Rosen and that number against the Bills stayed put the
Speaker 1: whole way through its seventeen. That doesn't make any sense
Speaker 1: to me. This number doesn't make any sense to me,
Speaker 1: despite the fact that it's prime time and it's in
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh and any other narrative you want to associate with it.
Speaker 1: Give me the points. That's my first best bet as
Speaker 1: well on the Dolphins. I'll take the fourteen in a hook. Happily.
Speaker 1: By the way, the Dolphins should have won the football game.
Speaker 1: If they get it in there and to go up
Speaker 1: twenty one nine instead of throwing the pick, they're probably
Speaker 1: gonna win up twelve. It should also be noted that
Speaker 1: we barely got the cover two because it could have
Speaker 1: been a very unlucky push. Ryan Fitzpatrick fumbles at the
Speaker 1: end right and the Dolphins happened to land on it
Speaker 1: at their own five, so you know, it was Dolphins
Speaker 1: doing Dolphins things at the end. There's always that to
Speaker 1: worry about. That was after on Site's kick return for
Speaker 1: a touchdown, which is the new thing, the new rage.
Speaker 1: All of a sudden that that was great. I had
Speaker 1: the I had bills second half, so minus eight and
Speaker 1: a half. So that was that saved me a fourtuitous
Speaker 1: turn of events for you. Wait, I didn't do my
Speaker 1: first best bet. My best bet. It's gonna be just
Speaker 1: to just to make it a little more entertaining, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go with over forty five and a half in
Speaker 1: the Tampa Tennessee game. And here's why. I think. First
Speaker 1: of all, that Tampa Bay is a great over team
Speaker 1: this year. They really are are. You know, they can
Speaker 1: be explosive on offense, but defensively they're an absolute dumpster fire.
Speaker 1: And now that Tanne Hills in the game instead of Mariota,
Speaker 1: I feel like Tennessee has a little bit more firepower
Speaker 1: throwing the football, so I think they'll be able to
Speaker 1: move the ball and score some points against Tampa Bay. Now,
Speaker 1: Tennessee's defense is pretty good, but Tampa Bay has the
Speaker 1: ability to score pretty much on anybody as well, So
Speaker 1: to me, forty five and a half's a little too low.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go over forty five and a half for
Speaker 1: my best bet. What's trippy about this podcast this week
Speaker 1: is that I have a visual on Rufus. So Rufus
Speaker 1: is tech savvy enough where I can actually see him
Speaker 1: right so, not only by the ways he's wearing a
Speaker 1: very nice shirt which is black and checkered, checkered, black
Speaker 1: and gray, but he's got a state of the art microphone.
Speaker 1: Is that a blue? What is that, Rufus? That's very
Speaker 1: nice microphone. It is a blue, Yeah, very nice. I
Speaker 1: got enough bad feedback on my sound quality over the
Speaker 1: years with with some crappy microphone. I had that the
Speaker 1: process podcast that I finally invested in a good one. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's a that's a nice one right there. But in
Speaker 1: having the visual on Rufus, I can see his reactions
Speaker 1: to certain comments and making that he takes notes, so
Speaker 1: you obviously had a reaction to what Todd was saying there. Well,
Speaker 1: I think you know, my second best bet is gonna
Speaker 1: might be the other side there, So I'll get into
Speaker 1: that later. Okay, I think I think it's time for
Speaker 1: your second best bet, because we've gone around the horn one.
Speaker 1: So what is your second best bet? So it is
Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay Tennessee under forty five and a half.
Speaker 1: And there you go, and why and why would you?
Speaker 1: What would you say? Why you I make I make
Speaker 1: the number forty two and a half. And and that's
Speaker 1: They could change a little based on whether there is
Speaker 1: it's they're supposed to be old drizzle. Um, it's a
Speaker 1: dreary day in Nashville, So if there is rain, um,
Speaker 1: I'll have that slightly lower as well. But but this
Speaker 1: is essentially a matchup of a slightly above average offense
Speaker 1: in in Tampa Bay versus a slightly above average UH
Speaker 1: defense and UM in Tennessee. And then a bad offense
Speaker 1: against a bad defense. So Tampa Bay is a pretty
Speaker 1: past friendly offense. They passed eighth most or expect them
Speaker 1: too relative to expectation. Tennessee is kind of the other
Speaker 1: end of the spectrum UM in the twenties. But and
Speaker 1: especially with UM, I mean with Tanna hill Um at quarterback. Now,
Speaker 1: they I do think that you may see a little
Speaker 1: bit more UM more Derrick Henry. But Tampa has some
Speaker 1: high scoring games basically because their offense can put up
Speaker 1: garbage time points when they're down. And and Jamis Winston,
Speaker 1: his you know, is known to give some gifts to
Speaker 1: the opposing teams. But Um Tampa's lab three defensive touchdowns.
Speaker 1: I feel like there's this narrative that Winston is, um
Speaker 1: is going to give a lot of points. You score
Speaker 1: a lot of points, but give up a lot of
Speaker 1: points to himself. But three interceptions and pick six is
Speaker 1: um so Tampa. So so yeah, they've allowed three defensive
Speaker 1: touchdowns and they've turned the ball over more than twice
Speaker 1: a game. And yes, Winston is that guy. Um, he's
Speaker 1: not really going to change who he is. I don't
Speaker 1: think at this point. He's a guy that he holds
Speaker 1: the ball a long time, which results in big place
Speaker 1: but it also results in a lot of sacks and
Speaker 1: it results in Um interceptions. It's, you know, you have
Speaker 1: to take the bad with the good. But what what
Speaker 1: is interesting so far is that his average interception this
Speaker 1: year has come from ball snapped his own thirty five
Speaker 1: yard line, while Tampa's average offensive snap has been from
Speaker 1: the fifty yard line. So Um in the last three years,
Speaker 1: the average interception has been from a team zone forty
Speaker 1: yard line, so there's not really so so in a way,
Speaker 1: those interceptions that Winston has thrown has ended up costing UM,
Speaker 1: have ended up being over helping interceptions rather than like
Speaker 1: a red zone interception, which is gonna be an under
Speaker 1: helpy interception. So UM, isn't the sample size small? Rufus.
Speaker 1: Of course, the sample size is small for that UM,
Speaker 1: or for for Winston's interceptions this year. I'm saying that
Speaker 1: so far this year they've helped be over and so
Speaker 1: it makes it makes Tampa they look like they're higher
Speaker 1: scoring team. It makes their games look like they're higher
Speaker 1: scoring UM than they fundamentally should be. The other thing
Speaker 1: is he's thrown you know, of his interceptions have been
Speaker 1: pick six is this year. UM the league average is
Speaker 1: eleven percent, and with Winston's historical rates ten point three percent,
Speaker 1: So you're not gonna see UM. I think the sort
Speaker 1: of narrative that that Winston is the Winston's style of
Speaker 1: play leads to more points isn't doesn't necessarily bear out
Speaker 1: in terms of UM, you know, predictively, so eat it. Okay, Well,
Speaker 1: I'm not making the bet off of Winston. I just
Speaker 1: think he's a bonus. But I'm just basing it on
Speaker 1: the fact I think, may I think um with with
Speaker 1: Um instead of Mariota um in there, I think they're
Speaker 1: going to be able to move it on Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1: And I think Tampa Bay's offensive decent. So we will
Speaker 1: see who is correct on this one. So, so, do
Speaker 1: you think Tannehill is a better quarterback than Marietta? Unfortunately,
Speaker 1: I kind of think yes. So I have Tannehill graded
Speaker 1: substantially worse than Mariotta. I think that's probably a big
Speaker 1: part of it. In fact, Um, I think with Mariotta
Speaker 1: in there, I wouldn't this may not be a play
Speaker 1: for me. See that. That's when we were we were
Speaker 1: debating that on air this morning, when we were talking
Speaker 1: about this game, because Tannehill in his one game back
Speaker 1: right one game, he was throwing the ball in tight quarters.
Speaker 1: He was making these passes that were pretty incredible given
Speaker 1: how his receivers were being covered. But I did say
Speaker 1: on the air, I'm like, is this sustainable? You know?
Speaker 1: Is it was that just an aberrational thing? We're like, Wow,
Speaker 1: tanneh Hill stuck that one into Oh my god, he
Speaker 1: made that past two And I don't know the answer
Speaker 1: to that, Like I don't have like supreme confidence in that.
Speaker 1: I just know that Mariota's one skill set was he
Speaker 1: didn't turn the ball over at all, which was just
Speaker 1: a pretty good skill set to have in the NFL.
Speaker 1: That don't get you through a lot of years. Obviously,
Speaker 1: his performance deteriorated recently that he that he's seen the bench.
Speaker 1: But I'm not so sure if I buy into Tannehill either.
Speaker 1: I think Mariota is he's a John Fox quarterback. He's
Speaker 1: he's a guy who's gonna give you, know, you know,
Speaker 1: keep the turnovers down, but he's not explosive. I think
Speaker 1: Tannehill will probably give you more turnovers, but he's a
Speaker 1: little more explosive. What I mean, I haven't looked at this,
Speaker 1: but what was his sort of average depth of target
Speaker 1: when he was with the with with the Dolphins, I
Speaker 1: kind of if I remember correctly, he didn't throw a
Speaker 1: ton downfield? Did he? I think he did yea more
Speaker 1: so more so then than we saw last week for sure.
Speaker 1: He also he also rant like back with the with
Speaker 1: the fence, he he ran the ball decent amount, so
Speaker 1: we'll see if we see that post injury. All right,
Speaker 1: So you guys are apo on that one. Uh Todd
Speaker 1: is over and you are under rufus. That's what we
Speaker 1: got down here. That's correct, all right. Mike palm Mike Palmieri,
Speaker 1: Mike Palmetto, what is your number two pick? I'm a
Speaker 1: recent believer in this team, and I didn't know that
Speaker 1: if Jacobe Rissette could take a team to the playoffs
Speaker 1: um um. But as this sees and has worn on
Speaker 1: and they've played through injuries, I've become more and more
Speaker 1: impressed with the Colts. I think this is a good
Speaker 1: spot for them. Second consecutive home game. There's a big
Speaker 1: coaching mismatch here. I think Reich is just so good.
Speaker 1: I like their red zone defense. Uh Flacco um has
Speaker 1: either he was never that good or he's deteriorated through age. Um.
Speaker 1: He just doesn't sense any pressure in the pocket. He's
Speaker 1: like a statue back there. I'm not impressed with this
Speaker 1: Broncos offense. I don't think they're gonna put up a
Speaker 1: ton of points. I'll lay under a touchdown here. Five
Speaker 1: and a half. With the Colts at home in the
Speaker 1: late game against Denver, I'm not sure Flacco is alive
Speaker 1: part of the time. Listen. I I don't want to
Speaker 1: mimic every one of your picks here, Mike, but people
Speaker 1: have guessing lines to go to so that they know
Speaker 1: I'm not making it up right now as we go.
Speaker 1: But this was one of my best bets in terms
Speaker 1: of just being more incredulous about the line. Now. Nothing
Speaker 1: was like the Pittsburgh Miami line. And there's another one
Speaker 1: that I thought was further off too. But if you're
Speaker 1: giving me less than a touchdown here on the Colts
Speaker 1: at home with Jacoby Brissette, uh, the very ball conscious again,
Speaker 1: Jacoby Brissette with a minimum and I think it was
Speaker 1: like a two hundred or I can't remember what the
Speaker 1: minimum passes is, but whatever that minimum is, he's historically
Speaker 1: good in terms of protecting the football. Again, that sample
Speaker 1: sizes smaller than it will be as we move forward.
Speaker 1: But I'm not impressed with the Broncos at all, and
Speaker 1: I think the Colts are a sneaky good football team.
Speaker 1: I'm with you, I'm taking the Colts. I'm laying the
Speaker 1: six and a half or whatever it is right now,
Speaker 1: as long I think it's five and a half now,
Speaker 1: uh five and a half in this game, it's going
Speaker 1: down a little. So I'm doing that as well. Rufus,
Speaker 1: I know you've been on the Broncos. You said this
Speaker 1: earlier on the show. That's kind of been your team,
Speaker 1: perhaps to your to your ultimate dissatisfaction. But you you
Speaker 1: like the Broncos. Here do I'm I took the Broncos
Speaker 1: at plus six earlier in the week. I just I mean,
Speaker 1: I think they have I have the Broncos is basically
Speaker 1: an average team. Um, I think you know, obviously Flacco
Speaker 1: looks really bad. I agree, Um, but they have their
Speaker 1: defense is good. Um, they you know in the trenches there. Well,
Speaker 1: their offensive line did not. I'll be honest. Their offensive
Speaker 1: line lived pretty awful last week. But a lot of
Speaker 1: that was was Flacco and the fact that, I mean,
Speaker 1: sacks are mostly a quarterback stat. But now I'm trying
Speaker 1: to look at my my line numbers for the Broncos. Here.
Speaker 1: Would this be one of your three best bets? Or
Speaker 1: this is just a random bet? You have? No? No,
Speaker 1: this is this is like, honestly, I didn't see a
Speaker 1: lot of value on the card this week, but Bengals
Speaker 1: and Broncos or two, UM, And I'll be honest, I
Speaker 1: think that um right now, you know, the game of
Speaker 1: football is changing a little bit, and I do think
Speaker 1: my priors in a way are maybe overfit to a
Speaker 1: different era. And and you know, you have the you
Speaker 1: have two quarterbacks and like Flacco and Dalton who have
Speaker 1: a lot of experience, they have a lot of starts,
Speaker 1: and in general, guys that have have a lot of starts,
Speaker 1: UM get those starts because they're good quarterbacks, because they
Speaker 1: you know, they played well in the past. And even
Speaker 1: you know, and so I think that you know, guys
Speaker 1: like guys like Breeze, Roethlisberger, UM, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning,
Speaker 1: Tom Brady, guys that like have played a long time,
Speaker 1: UM kind of have in a way shaped these prior
Speaker 1: shaped the sort of experience factor in my priors, whereas
Speaker 1: you know, you don't. And so as a result, like
Speaker 1: a guy like Joe Flacco or someone like Andy Dalton
Speaker 1: is in a way I think probably gonna be a
Speaker 1: little bit over inflated my numbers just because of um
Speaker 1: that sort of experience fixed effect UM in in my model.
Speaker 1: So yeah, no, I actually think that's a great discussion.
Speaker 1: We kind of delve into that on a numbers game
Speaker 1: on Visa and Series Sex and Channel two a four
Speaker 1: weekday mornings Monday through Friday, seven and nine Pacific tend
Speaker 1: a noon easter. We do that quite often, not not often,
Speaker 1: but every once in a while. I will make this
Speaker 1: point about the difference in betting, say baseball antennis versus
Speaker 1: the National Football League Baseball in tennis, to me feel
Speaker 1: very logical and very cerebral based on numbers Visa via
Speaker 1: the betting line in the NFL. And this is not
Speaker 1: exactly what you're saying, but it's sort of a cousin
Speaker 1: of what you're saying akin to it, which is, you know,
Speaker 1: also the coaching differences. For me, and I always say
Speaker 1: this with the NFL, that if you could only have one,
Speaker 1: if one tool was at your disposal, just one in
Speaker 1: picking NFL games, and it was just that you power
Speaker 1: ranked coaches, if that was the only thing at your disposal,
Speaker 1: you might do better betting the NFL then running through
Speaker 1: numbers anymore. Because the difference the chasm between the half
Speaker 1: and the have nots in the NFL and specifically with
Speaker 1: the coaches is so vast now that it almost diminishes
Speaker 1: the importance of your numbers. Sometimes I don't know if
Speaker 1: I'm making if I'm articulating that well, but just sort
Speaker 1: of throw that out there, rufus No, that makes a
Speaker 1: ton of sense. And Frank Reich is an amazing coach,
Speaker 1: you see. I mean he'll go for it in the
Speaker 1: first quarter at his own forty yard line on fourth
Speaker 1: and two, which is which is what he should do.
Speaker 1: And so I completely agree. And I think the hardest
Speaker 1: thing to do in the NFL is to sort of
Speaker 1: distinguish the value of the quarterback versus the the offense
Speaker 1: surrounding him and versus the scheme he's in. UM and
Speaker 1: so UM. And then when you add on you know,
Speaker 1: what what coaches do in game, we can sort of
Speaker 1: see the value of coach can add with good in
Speaker 1: game decisions. That's kind of what you see when on Twitter, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, discussions of um, you know, mistakes by coaches.
Speaker 1: It's generally bad in game decisions that we can quantify.
Speaker 1: But um, what we what's a lot harder to gauge
Speaker 1: is the value of a coach schematically, because I think
Speaker 1: for years, like Andy Reid is a guy that was
Speaker 1: awful with clock management. But you know, he seemed to
Speaker 1: his schemes are always good. He always you know, he
Speaker 1: was I guess great in the locker room, motivating players
Speaker 1: and all that, and so his his teams would would
Speaker 1: would do really well. So I mean, that's of course,
Speaker 1: it's it's definitely I agree Gill. It's it's something that's
Speaker 1: that's hard to do and coaches do matter. By the way,
Speaker 1: I just looked up Flacco's numbers this year on you know,
Speaker 1: Pro Football Focus actually has graded him out as an
Speaker 1: above slightly above average quarterback this year. So far, stop
Speaker 1: it stop appropriate. Yeah, that's the correnable, that's the corruptible
Speaker 1: numbers the factor when these models, you know I love models,
Speaker 1: it's not okay, well what however, they Pro football whatever
Speaker 1: you ranking you just called, they have some type of
Speaker 1: uh way of figuring out who they called above average quarterback.
Speaker 1: And all I'm saying is whatever the numbers are that
Speaker 1: they're plugging in, it's numbers in, numbers out, and if
Speaker 1: they're shitty numbers in, your shitty numbers out, and if
Speaker 1: they're good numbers in, they're good numbers out. So I
Speaker 1: don't I don't agree with that ranking of of Flacco
Speaker 1: is slightly above average. I mean personally, I don't. I
Speaker 1: don't see how I haven't watched every snap, but um,
Speaker 1: which what what what their rankings are, That's what their
Speaker 1: rankings are based on. They literally grade out each throw
Speaker 1: and each play and say like, it's a bunch of
Speaker 1: humans doing this. Well, so my humans may be better
Speaker 1: than you're. They're humans, so right, every I've watched every snap,
Speaker 1: so I can't. I cannot call Joe flag I best.
Speaker 1: I can call him average. I cannot call him above average.
Speaker 1: I mean that, I mean that's what he is. What
Speaker 1: you're really asking Todd is have they seen his face
Speaker 1: in any of these games? Because not only does he
Speaker 1: appear to not care while he's on the field, I'm
Speaker 1: not sure he's alive. I really don't believe. Like some
Speaker 1: of the times, I'm like, dude, check if that dude
Speaker 1: has a pulse, like he just where's the passion in this?
Speaker 1: Like it's like I'm not putting my money behind this guy,
Speaker 1: And that's when that's when you're you're human. Eye test
Speaker 1: is like, I can't do this anymore. It corrupts. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't know what for a football focus
Speaker 1: is doing to determine that. But I'm kind of with
Speaker 1: you on that, Todd. Maybe you're maybe your human brain
Speaker 1: is better than theirs in this case. I I don't
Speaker 1: know whether I am or whether I'm not, but come
Speaker 1: on now, um, I do want to agree with Rufe
Speaker 1: I'm not making this one of my picks. But is
Speaker 1: that by the way, I've only given one pick because
Speaker 1: that Rufus is official third pick Denver plus five and
Speaker 1: a half. Yes, Rufus has three and Mike and I
Speaker 1: already have two, so you're behind here. I'm gonna come
Speaker 1: out looking like an idiot at the end of this week.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be great. No, I'm I'm I'm gonna I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna take Denver as one of my picks. But
Speaker 1: I do want to say that I leaned to Rufus
Speaker 1: and against you and Mike Gil because I think that
Speaker 1: Indianapolis is coming off a big win, uh and Denver
Speaker 1: is coming off an absolute ass whooping against the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: and I never want to have the team that just
Speaker 1: looked great against the team that just looked horrendous, So
Speaker 1: to me, I would have to lean Denver. The other
Speaker 1: thing that sticks in my mind is the Raiders going
Speaker 1: into Indian running it all over them, and I don't
Speaker 1: see why Denver couldn't be able to run it and
Speaker 1: then keep it close late. So I'll lean with Rufus
Speaker 1: on on Denver against you and Mike. But I'm not
Speaker 1: going to use that as any of my picks. But
Speaker 1: now do you want me to give you my second pick? Please? Okay,
Speaker 1: my second pick. Oh and by the way, Rufus, I
Speaker 1: loved what you said about Andy Reid schematically because I
Speaker 1: was saying that today on a numbers game when when
Speaker 1: we were saying Kansas City getting three and a half.
Speaker 1: I love Mahomes. I think he's you know, it's a
Speaker 1: little too soon to make him Jesus. He's not that great.
Speaker 1: He's fantastic, but he's not Jesus. So Andy need schematically
Speaker 1: with all those um with all those weapons. Is you know,
Speaker 1: I think it's too many points with Green Bay. I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna use that one either, but I still think
Speaker 1: Green Bay is is giving too many points to Kansas
Speaker 1: City because Andy Reid is a great schemer. So I
Speaker 1: totally agree with you on that. You know, you know what,
Speaker 1: you should go through the whole schedule and give us
Speaker 1: all your leans except for your best bet, and then
Speaker 1: finally get to your best bet. That was just two
Speaker 1: points that I wanted to make that you guys were
Speaker 1: just discussing, though, Todd, I think that's a great point
Speaker 1: with Andy Reid. I mean, look what he did with
Speaker 1: Alex Smith exactly. But Gil Gil likes to get on
Speaker 1: me and Mike likes to get on you know, both
Speaker 1: of them are they're they're just what hards is. What
Speaker 1: can I tell you now? My second pick, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go with a team that we all know and love.
Speaker 1: It's called the Miami Dolphins. Miami Dolphins, Miami Dolphins plus
Speaker 1: fourteen and a half. We've already discussed it ad nauseum.
Speaker 1: Mason Rudolph is gonna throw that little dinker ball. And
Speaker 1: what does Pro Football Focus say about his point five
Speaker 1: against Cincinnati when he didn't throw the ball more than
Speaker 1: two yards down the goddamn field. So I don't want
Speaker 1: to hear about rankings and this bullshit that these people talk. Oh,
Speaker 1: Mason Rudolph was twenty five, He was fantastic. No, he wasn't.
Speaker 1: I could have thrown those little dinker ballsy, hold on,
Speaker 1: hold on, you asked the question, brufus, do you have
Speaker 1: that in front of you? I can pull it up.
Speaker 1: I'm pulling it up right now. I'm curress. I just
Speaker 1: think this is a good reference because I was I
Speaker 1: was curious with the flak of how bad he actually
Speaker 1: had been and um no, actually that's the one game
Speaker 1: that Rudolph graded above average. Again, guess what anybody could
Speaker 1: have done that if you watched that game stats lie,
Speaker 1: every single play was there was the wide receiver running
Speaker 1: in motion, snap it to Rudolph, He throws it one
Speaker 1: and a half yards to the guy and he runs
Speaker 1: around the end. And Cincinnati couldn't figure it out. So
Speaker 1: I don't want to hear about Mason Rudolph. Give me.
Speaker 1: Will Miami be able to figure that out? Though? Well?
Speaker 1: I just I just think that Miami's defense is is
Speaker 1: not as bad as people think it is. It's it's
Speaker 1: not good. I'm not saying it's good, but I'm not
Speaker 1: saying it's as bad as people think it is. Remember,
Speaker 1: this is a team that went to Buffalo yesterday and
Speaker 1: I mean last week and should have been up to nine.
Speaker 1: This team is not that horrendous. If fits can not
Speaker 1: be bad fits, granted, if Fits his bad fits, and
Speaker 1: he throws eighteen interceptions like he's wont to do at times. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we're gonna go down and smoke. But if Fits can
Speaker 1: play an adequate game, manage the game played decently, we're
Speaker 1: not getting beat by fourteen and a half by the
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh uh Tow Waivers. Okay, Miami plus fourteen and a
Speaker 1: half Miami Dolphins. Okay, So Mike, me and you are
Speaker 1: all on the Dolphins, Rufus is on the Bengals, and
Speaker 1: the Broncos say poo poo platter on this podcast. We
Speaker 1: could all look terrible after this, but we shall see. Uh,
Speaker 1: Mike Palm, you haven't given a third pick? Right, yeah?
Speaker 1: Under forty two Minnesota ends. Since Rufus and I have
Speaker 1: already given our third pick, it's time for Todd to
Speaker 1: give two more leans in his third pick. All right, Todd,
Speaker 1: you go ahead, you give you a third Okay, I
Speaker 1: will give you my third best bet, and I'm going
Speaker 1: to go with the Caral line up Panthers, Riverboat ron
Speaker 1: I like this football team. I think they're flying a
Speaker 1: little bit under the radar. I think the San Francisco
Speaker 1: forty niners well very good. Have had a bunch of
Speaker 1: good games in a row before the slop game, and
Speaker 1: I like getting good teams with more. I mean San
Speaker 1: Francisco and Carolina. Here they're saying that San Francisco is
Speaker 1: three points better on a neutral field, which is why
Speaker 1: there's six point favorites in this game. And I do
Speaker 1: not think there's three points difference between San Francisco and Carolina.
Speaker 1: Maybe one, maybe two. I don't think San Francisco's worth
Speaker 1: three more on a neutral field. So I like the
Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers. I think Alan, as long as he doesn't
Speaker 1: make too many mistakes, he can throw a nice ball
Speaker 1: out there. I like their offense with keek Lely, of course,
Speaker 1: I get the little running back who can run for
Speaker 1: you know, Miles and Miles. I think that Carolina will
Speaker 1: be able to at least control the Niner running game
Speaker 1: to some extent. Six points is a ton of points
Speaker 1: in the National Football League game. When two adequate teams
Speaker 1: are going against each other. I'm gonna go with Riverboat
Speaker 1: Ron and the Carolina Panthers plus the six Thanks for
Speaker 1: the showmanship. Also, ton on that, are you worried that
Speaker 1: Kyle Allen's fumble luck is just off the charts. You know,
Speaker 1: you love to get on this Island guy for his fumbles.
Speaker 1: I remember seeing one of them was totally not his fault.
Speaker 1: He got smashed in the back where he didn't All right,
Speaker 1: we'll take that off the shot. But the fact is
Speaker 1: that their fumble luck has been really good. So I
Speaker 1: mean that just that just gives me a moment of pause,
Speaker 1: is all I'm saying. Okay, Well, I mean, look, fumble
Speaker 1: luck can go both ways. What's the Niners fumble luck.
Speaker 1: I don't know of fan, but it's not as as
Speaker 1: fortunate as that of the of the Carolina Fathers. By
Speaker 1: the way, the slop at FedEx Field, can we just
Speaker 1: talk about that for saying, how is it that they
Speaker 1: cannot get this right? Like even in great conditions at
Speaker 1: FedEx Field. That's they always complain about how difficult that
Speaker 1: field is to maintain. It's like, oh, the mid Atlantic
Speaker 1: region of the country. What's so difficult about the mid Atlantic? Sod? Like,
Speaker 1: I don't understand that. And that was a slop field. Uh,
Speaker 1: And the Redskins end up being the second team in
Speaker 1: the last twenty five years to score no points and
Speaker 1: cover the spread against the Niners. So you're on the
Speaker 1: Panthers um or any of these dogs. By the way,
Speaker 1: is anybody sprinkling anything on the money line on any
Speaker 1: of these dogs? And we're just doing this a t
Speaker 1: s personally and I'm not I'm not putting anything on
Speaker 1: money lines just because, um it's it's you know, I'm
Speaker 1: trying to get full limits earlier in the week, so
Speaker 1: I understand maybe later in the week you don't piss
Speaker 1: anybody off at this point. My third, by the way,
Speaker 1: is the New Orleans Saints. I realized this is, uh, well,
Speaker 1: let me tell you how much it is right now.
Speaker 1: New Orleans is a ten point favorite. I get ten,
Speaker 1: ten point favorite, ten and a half most places skill
Speaker 1: now no, yeah, it's it's ten consensus, I think, yeah,
Speaker 1: I see ten minus one away ten minus one oh five. Uh,
Speaker 1: it's ten. H New Orleans given ten against Arizona. This
Speaker 1: was my second most off guests of the year. Again,
Speaker 1: this is one of these weird years which has never
Speaker 1: happened before with these guesses where I am authentically way
Speaker 1: off the numbers on some of these, and so this
Speaker 1: was I was four points off on this. I thought
Speaker 1: this should be fourteen points. Arizona comes off a win
Speaker 1: over the Giants. The Giants are dreadful. The week before
Speaker 1: Arizona got by Atlanta, Atlanta is not doing anything big.
Speaker 1: And in that game against Atlanta, Arizona had not one,
Speaker 1: not too but at least three instances in that game
Speaker 1: where they got the benefits of calls that could have
Speaker 1: just as easily gone against them and really determined the
Speaker 1: outcome of that game. Obviously, Matt Bryant missing an extra
Speaker 1: point at the end did as well, and and Kyler
Speaker 1: Murray uh sort of up and down, sort of a
Speaker 1: choppy early regular season. I don't know if they found
Speaker 1: something in Chase Edmonds or not. I'm not gonna read
Speaker 1: too much into it. But the New Orleans Saints, whether
Speaker 1: it's Bridgewater or Breeze here, and I think it's should
Speaker 1: be Bridgewater because I don't know why the Russian drew
Speaker 1: Brees back with a by coming up. I thought they
Speaker 1: said it was playing. Breeze is playing? Now? Is that
Speaker 1: the word that I thought I thought they were saying
Speaker 1: the Breeze said he was gonna play, But I don't
Speaker 1: Maybe I'm wrong. I thought Jeff Parls said that this morning.
Speaker 1: Did he let me check on that? While we go
Speaker 1: through this, but uh, I'm taking the I'm taking the Saints. Look,
Speaker 1: I know it's ten points. I know you're not gonna
Speaker 1: make a huge profit long term doing this as a
Speaker 1: rule in the NFL. But I think they're a vastly
Speaker 1: better football team. Uh. They did what they did against
Speaker 1: the Bears supposedly vaunted defense last week without Alvin Kamara,
Speaker 1: without Jared cook Um. Give me the Saints. I'm laying
Speaker 1: the points. And if I don't cover here, tip of
Speaker 1: the cap to the Cardinals. Some bet you have to
Speaker 1: be willing to lose. This would be one of them.
Speaker 1: As Mike would say, he doesn't want to hear my leans,
Speaker 1: but I'm leaning with you. If Breese plays, I definitely
Speaker 1: like that. And I just googled it, and yeah, Breese
Speaker 1: says he expects to play, apparently according to ESPN. And
Speaker 1: so that didn't move either, right on that news that's
Speaker 1: sitting right where it is. So was the game even
Speaker 1: whendn't like it wasn't even on the board at a
Speaker 1: lot of places for a while. Oh, it was up
Speaker 1: from the beginning, I thought from Monday anyway, So I'm
Speaker 1: seeing like Pinnacle didn't post anything till yesterday. Afternoon or evening.
Speaker 1: All right, we had a bunch of lines. I saw it.
Speaker 1: I saw it on the board at south Point all week. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I haven't my spreadshee just blank. Same with the Carton
Speaker 1: or same with the Falcons game. The Falcons game is
Speaker 1: still blank where I am. I don't see if I
Speaker 1: don't see a number in that game anywhere between Seattle
Speaker 1: and because we don't know if it's Matt Ryan or not.
Speaker 1: Half on bed online at six and a half. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's the only Yeah, it's the only place. Probably not,
Speaker 1: probably not for very low limits. Support for today's beating
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Speaker 1: right now, don't miss out Teaser of the week. Now,
Speaker 1: let me just say this the you know, oh stand
Speaker 1: for long. These aren't really working out this year. But
Speaker 1: let's give a two team six point teaser of the week.
Speaker 1: If you want to make it six and a half
Speaker 1: or seven points, we'll let you do that as well. Um,
Speaker 1: but rufus. If you were forced to make a two
Speaker 1: team tease play, which would it be for you this week?
Speaker 1: I mean there's really only one option. Um is Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay from two and a half to and half? And
Speaker 1: I tease? Um? Where are they the Philadelphia Eagles from
Speaker 1: two and a half to eight and a half. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's probably the one I don't think that. I don't
Speaker 1: think that needs an explanation, does it? No, none of
Speaker 1: that does. But again, but but and I mean I
Speaker 1: do so I make the Tampa Bay game like honestly,
Speaker 1: I I took Tampa, Um I got them at three,
Speaker 1: so um, so I do lean them at two and
Speaker 1: a half. I wouldn't play them at two and a half.
Speaker 1: And with the Eagles, UM, I make that spread just one.
Speaker 1: So uh, you know that that kind of helps it
Speaker 1: as well. Plus obviously you know, getting the three and
Speaker 1: the seven, which you know, the three and the seven
Speaker 1: aren't arguably aren't worth as much anymore now with with
Speaker 1: the longer extra points. But um, yeah, I think it
Speaker 1: obviously depends on what what what you're having to life.
Speaker 1: That's a two point two team six NA point teaser too, yeah,
Speaker 1: no standard tease down through seven and three though on
Speaker 1: the whole favorite side, that is true. All right, So
Speaker 1: rufus going with excuse me, Tampa Bay season it up
Speaker 1: through the three seven to well, let's call it eight
Speaker 1: and a half. Philadelphia, same deal, Um, just before we
Speaker 1: move out for that Philadelphia, Buffalo. Philadelphia looked so bad
Speaker 1: against the Dallas Cowboys. Do you worry about them in
Speaker 1: a sense. I know, I understand you know, taking your
Speaker 1: teaser side makes perfect sense. But just as a football
Speaker 1: team that a lot of people had high expectations for,
Speaker 1: do you look at them and think that they are
Speaker 1: in some ways fraudulent at all? You know, if if
Speaker 1: you look at any good team at the end of
Speaker 1: the season, they end up having bad games. Um. Even
Speaker 1: I remember I was a few weeks ago looking through
Speaker 1: and some of these historically good teams because I was interested.
Speaker 1: Do you remember back in the nineties when the forty
Speaker 1: Niners were huge favorites and Super Bowls against like the
Speaker 1: chart against the Chargers, um? And I was like, how
Speaker 1: is you know, I feel like you have. I can't
Speaker 1: imagine in this era you have like having a seventeen
Speaker 1: Poe favorite in the Super Bowl. And so I looked
Speaker 1: through and then I saw the Niners like got blown
Speaker 1: out in like a game like Week five or something
Speaker 1: against the Elfie Eagles in and I was like, I
Speaker 1: wonder what people were saying then creating what narratives they
Speaker 1: created at the time. So I just think there is
Speaker 1: a lot of randomness in football, and and just you know,
Speaker 1: you're not always going to have your a you know,
Speaker 1: a game every week. There's stuff you maybe not be
Speaker 1: prepared for schematically. I don't want to honestly, Um, it
Speaker 1: would surprise me if that was the case with the Cowboys,
Speaker 1: just because, um, it's Jason Garrett and so you know,
Speaker 1: I don't think he's any genius. Um, although Hellen Moore
Speaker 1: is look better. But you know, I think, you know,
Speaker 1: the Eagles do have a talented team. They've been banged
Speaker 1: up in the secondary. Um, I think that, you know,
Speaker 1: my player level model likes them a lot more than
Speaker 1: than the Massy Peabody team level model, So I think
Speaker 1: the talents there. By the way, and I'm not looking
Speaker 1: this up, but it was against the Philadelphia Eagles because
Speaker 1: I remember it very well. The Niners were a juggernaut
Speaker 1: and they had this weird game at home where they
Speaker 1: got crushed by the Eagles. I'm gonna off the top
Speaker 1: of my head, and for some reason, I remember the score.
Speaker 1: I think it was forty eight something like that because
Speaker 1: it was this weird school were and when you asked
Speaker 1: what was the narrative back then? The narrative back then
Speaker 1: was people just raise their hands and like, huh, that
Speaker 1: was weird. I kept no explanation for that game, and
Speaker 1: as the season went on and the Niners won, the
Speaker 1: super people like wow, what was that? That was basically
Speaker 1: the extent of the analysis back then, as I recall
Speaker 1: it as a as a child or as are as
Speaker 1: a young man. Anyway, Mike Palm teaser the week. Okay, girl,
Speaker 1: I was so excited. My biggest accomplishment of the week
Speaker 1: last week wasn't that the Gnats past on the National
Speaker 1: League pennant ticket, but that I hit a teaser to
Speaker 1: go two and five on the year. You've actually got
Speaker 1: me betting teasers. I actually bet it live a teaser.
Speaker 1: I said, I cannot be this bad at teasers. It
Speaker 1: has to turn. So I actually bet the one last week.
Speaker 1: This week, I'm gonna go with the Lions. I'm going
Speaker 1: to tease the Lions down from seven to one against
Speaker 1: the Giants. I think the Lions are better on both
Speaker 1: sides of the ball and the jimming. This is such
Speaker 1: a tough division, the NFC North. I mean, I personally
Speaker 1: think the Vikings are the best team, and the Packers
Speaker 1: are right behind. The Lions are not that far behind
Speaker 1: them them as well. Uh and the Bears are you know,
Speaker 1: not awful, but probably overvalued. I'm gonna take the Lions
Speaker 1: down to one at home against the Giants, who really
Speaker 1: can't stop anybody. I think Stafford will put up put
Speaker 1: a big numbers this week. I know Carrie and Johnson
Speaker 1: might be out, but I think the Lions are capable
Speaker 1: of hanging thirty one or thirty five on the Giants here.
Speaker 1: So we'll tease that down under seven and under three
Speaker 1: to one, and then I'm gonna go the other way
Speaker 1: with a dog. I'm gonna take the Chargers up to
Speaker 1: ten against the Bears. I actually bet the Chargers on
Speaker 1: the money line in this game. I just think Drabsky
Speaker 1: is that bad that. I mean, it's deceptive to think that.
Speaker 1: You know, they only lost that game by around ten
Speaker 1: points to the Saints. They were completely dominated. They cannot
Speaker 1: move the ball. Drabinsky cannot throw down the field. I mean,
Speaker 1: what are the averaging three three or four yards per pass?
Speaker 1: I mean completed past, not attempt um. But you have
Speaker 1: the factor Anthony Lynn in here. He's probably worth in
Speaker 1: a game that's decided by his score word minus three
Speaker 1: or Ford the Chargers and the way he handles ends
Speaker 1: of games. So let's go all the way up to
Speaker 1: ten with the Chargers. That Chargers Tennessee finish last Sunday
Speaker 1: one of the most incredible endings to any football game
Speaker 1: I had Tennessee. So it worked out for me. If
Speaker 1: you ever hear me complaining about any outcome of any
Speaker 1: NFL game ever, remind me of that one. As two
Speaker 1: Chargers uh touchdowns at least on the field get reversed
Speaker 1: and it's followed by a subsequent fumble that was recovered
Speaker 1: by the Tennessee Titans. Amazing sequence at the end of
Speaker 1: the game that after the referees seem to have botched
Speaker 1: Ryan Tannehill's or the or the Titans third down and
Speaker 1: then Ryan Tannehill's sneak on fourth down on this on
Speaker 1: the previous drive, there was a whole you know, just
Speaker 1: consistent with the referetion anigans of this year in the NFL.
Speaker 1: And those who had the Titans get fortunate. Those who
Speaker 1: had the Chargers see the most Chargers thing ever happened
Speaker 1: to them. With Anthony Lenna's head coach in that game. Um, alright,
Speaker 1: so mine is also rufus is is the same thing
Speaker 1: I'm doing. The typical Stanford Wong teaser Philadelphia Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1: To me, that's probably the only teaser, at least that's
Speaker 1: the obvious teaser to make, and I'll go with that.
Speaker 1: And I don't think Buffalo is going to blow Philadelphia out,
Speaker 1: and I don't think Tennessee is gonna blow Tampa Bay out,
Speaker 1: and so I feel comfortable with that one. Todd. Yes,
Speaker 1: I would just like to say, unable to be challenged
Speaker 1: or denied. Yes, that is the definition of the word
Speaker 1: indisputable and disputable evidence. That's all I'm gonna say, folks.
Speaker 1: Indisputable evinces. What what Todd is saying is that he
Speaker 1: had the chargers and that although our laws of human
Speaker 1: beings and gravity and physics suggests that those were probably
Speaker 1: short of the goal line, there was no legitimate visual
Speaker 1: evidence to have overturned that. And Todd is very bitter. Correct,
Speaker 1: I'm slightly bitter. I think both balls were not touchdowns,
Speaker 1: but clearly I've watched one billion games and they never
Speaker 1: overturned unless it's unable to be challenged or denied the
Speaker 1: definition of the word in disputable. Thank you, nfl Um.
Speaker 1: As far as my teaser goes Um and Gil, you
Speaker 1: said you liked my showmanship. In order to do my
Speaker 1: teaser this week, I will be doing the song that
Speaker 1: that that that that that that the uh that that
Speaker 1: that that that the bom bom bomp. I'm just kidding anyways, UM,
Speaker 1: I will I thought you might like that. So that's
Speaker 1: that's a good one that always gets me fired up
Speaker 1: for football. Um. Anyways, I will go with the same
Speaker 1: teasers as both you and rufus Um Tampa Bay plus
Speaker 1: eight and a half. Um, that's the only one I'd
Speaker 1: be a little worried about. I think Philly is definitely
Speaker 1: gonna show up this week and play some offense in Buffalo,
Speaker 1: and I don't think Buffalo is the kind of team
Speaker 1: that usually wins by margin. So I will go Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay with the plus eight and a half in Philly
Speaker 1: with the plus eight and a half. One other thing
Speaker 1: I want to say, just so that people don't think
Speaker 1: I'm saying there's something. I think models are very important,
Speaker 1: and I think they have a lot to say. I
Speaker 1: just think that a lot of times some people's models
Speaker 1: have flaws in them, and the numbers can be corruptible,
Speaker 1: especially in a sport like football. So I'm not against models.
Speaker 1: I'm I'm against ship and ship out models. And I
Speaker 1: think there's a lot of models out there that while
Speaker 1: they may be accurate of them, they may have of
Speaker 1: a blind spot so to speak. I don't I don't
Speaker 1: have any problems. That's a really good point, Todd. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I completely agree. And I think especially in the game
Speaker 1: like football, where you do have such a small sample
Speaker 1: sizing you do you know, in a season, and you
Speaker 1: do have so many moving parts and things that are
Speaker 1: dependent on each other in context, I mean it's it's
Speaker 1: very tough. Um, it's very tough to to model football.
Speaker 1: And and you know, honestly there's a lot of art
Speaker 1: that goes into models too, and sort of intuition and
Speaker 1: trying to come up with, you know, um something logical.
Speaker 1: So I have zero problem with that statements. In fact,
Speaker 1: I would even suggest this. With legalization, we now see
Speaker 1: obviously a proliferation of people who are you know, instant
Speaker 1: supposed experts on all things sports, betting, and part and
Speaker 1: parcel with that is when you see someone who has
Speaker 1: who claims to have a model, there seems to be
Speaker 1: and you guys can tell me if I'm wrong or not,
Speaker 1: But I get the sense that by virtues by simple
Speaker 1: virtue of the fact that person claims to have a model,
Speaker 1: they are instantly i won't say deified, but they're instantly
Speaker 1: canonized into oh, this person must be smart. They have
Speaker 1: a model, for God's sakes, And or they're all themselves sharp.
Speaker 1: All of a sudden they're deified as sharp. Oh great, well,
Speaker 1: I'll get a goddamn sharp certificate too. I think you
Speaker 1: can purchase purchase one of those down the street. They
Speaker 1: could you buy a few? Yeah? Um? But that I
Speaker 1: don't know. I'm sensitive to that because I sort of
Speaker 1: get that feeling where I'm like, oh, well, like, how
Speaker 1: do we know, Like, all of a sudden, this person
Speaker 1: is supposed to be super smart just because they have
Speaker 1: a model, Like, I don't know that. So anyway, it's
Speaker 1: one of the things that I've been sensitive to. Alright,
Speaker 1: final two questions, Yes, gil gil By the way, even
Speaker 1: guys who have good models, very good models, doesn't mean
Speaker 1: the modeling is some of these models may have slight
Speaker 1: blind spots for sure. For sure. I mean, look or
Speaker 1: Rufus may know who I'm talking about when I refer
Speaker 1: to somebody who I know who has been doing models
Speaker 1: for decades, And let's just say, it's wonderful to talk about,
Speaker 1: and it's wonderful to analyze, and some of the stuff
Speaker 1: is really valuable, but there's also a lot of stuff
Speaker 1: that ultimately is not that valuable and has and has
Speaker 1: blind spots. So yeah, I mean nothing is infallible, right, Um,
Speaker 1: I think I know who you're talking about, and I
Speaker 1: think you might. Uh. Let's do the final two questions here,
Speaker 1: boys and girls. Final two questions as we close every
Speaker 1: megapod with UH. First of which is which is the
Speaker 1: big favorites you believe is the most likely lose outright?
Speaker 1: If you had to choose one of these, who would
Speaker 1: you think it is? Minnesota? SERI your candidates? Minnesota seventeen
Speaker 1: point favorites tonight against the Skins, New Orleans ten point favorites,
Speaker 1: ten and a half. Ten, let's call it ten now
Speaker 1: ten and a half. I think you're right, Todd. I'm
Speaker 1: seeing more ten and a half now, No, I see
Speaker 1: more tense. Ten boy favorites at home against Arizona. Uh.
Speaker 1: Just to make this interesting, let me knock it down
Speaker 1: just below the seven. So Jacksonville six and a half
Speaker 1: point favorites at home against the Jets Detroit seven point
Speaker 1: favorites at home against the Giants, Niners six point favorites
Speaker 1: at home against Carolina, Houston seven point favorites at home
Speaker 1: against ding Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding. All right, wait,
Speaker 1: turn New England thirteen point favorites against Freddie Kitchens and
Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns, and then Monday night Pittsburgh fourteen point
Speaker 1: favorites at home, maybe even fourteen and a half against
Speaker 1: the Miami Dolphins. Todd, does that mean you think Houston
Speaker 1: is the one. I think they're the most likely because
Speaker 1: I think that, uh, you know, you have the Bill
Speaker 1: O'Brien factor. In my model says that Bill O'Brien loves
Speaker 1: to keep the other fucking team in the game. Pardon
Speaker 1: me if I can't say the F word on the show,
Speaker 1: but I will say that he loves to keep the
Speaker 1: other team in the game. Oakland Raiders can run the football.
Speaker 1: Their defense is an abysmal bunch of garbage, but they
Speaker 1: actually can run the football. And I wouldn't be surprised
Speaker 1: if Bill O'Brien gives us a little Anthony Lynn like
Speaker 1: uh jokerism late in the game in Oakland pools some
Speaker 1: kind of stunner rufus same question. So we um was Denver,
Speaker 1: Indy not eligible, uh, because it's kind of five and
Speaker 1: a half, so I didn't put that in. Also, yeah,
Speaker 1: let's not make that eligible because I've already discussed it. Um.
Speaker 1: You know I'm gonna take Carolina, um, which Todd, You're
Speaker 1: on that game overall? Right, Yeah, yeah, I think that um. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't have much of an opinion. Um
Speaker 1: it's or not enough of an opinion to bet it.
Speaker 1: I make it um a four and a half point spread.
Speaker 1: But I do think you do have narratives working in
Speaker 1: the right direction. Um with you know, as Todd said,
Speaker 1: like san Fran coming off of a you know, really well. Actually,
Speaker 1: I don't want to say they came off a good
Speaker 1: performance because I think you can kind of just throw
Speaker 1: away that the mud bowl, right, I mean yeah, but
Speaker 1: I don't know what what that course and and the narrative.
Speaker 1: I mean, they're undefeated. Um. Although I am a little
Speaker 1: concerned about Kyle Allen. I do think Kyle Allen is
Speaker 1: not a good quarterback. I you know, he's played, he's played, Okay, Um,
Speaker 1: he's five and o career as a starter. But there's
Speaker 1: a reason he was an undrafted free agent and occasionally
Speaker 1: there are quarterbacks that are you know, late round picks
Speaker 1: like Tom Brady that end up being great quarterbacks. But uh,
Speaker 1: the odds, you know, even even after five and start,
Speaker 1: the odds of of Kyle Allen being someone with staying
Speaker 1: power are quite low. But hopefully maybe he can. He
Speaker 1: can continue to ride the hot hand or at least
Speaker 1: the lukewarm hand, uh and and beat San Fran on
Speaker 1: the road. So I think san Fran one thing they
Speaker 1: have surprisingly been recently is a little bit conservative with
Speaker 1: their play calling an offense. And I've heard Kyle Shanahan
Speaker 1: talk about how they're okay with winning with defense and
Speaker 1: getting three yards per carry sometimes and which keeps the
Speaker 1: opponent in the game. It does, and so, um, if
Speaker 1: if the defense can't can't hold, then you know, we
Speaker 1: could see we could see Carolina. Want to Kyle Shanahan, who,
Speaker 1: for the first time in his career he says can
Speaker 1: rely on a defense. He says, a very funny feeling
Speaker 1: for him that he's never had this before. He's like, Wow,
Speaker 1: I can actually rely on my defense. Um, Mikey, same question.
Speaker 1: I look at the Texans and uh, I just you
Speaker 1: know this Raiders travel schedule. I know they've got to
Speaker 1: buy in between, but never being at home, Uh, it
Speaker 1: seems to be very difficult spot for them to keep
Speaker 1: going on the road. I look at the forty nine ers,
Speaker 1: but how long can Kyle Allen's bumble luck continue. I
Speaker 1: think this will be a great game, but I still
Speaker 1: think this forty nine years defense is underrated. New Orleans
Speaker 1: Minnesota forty nine. I think these are the three best
Speaker 1: teams with a chance to get to the super Bowl
Speaker 1: because of their defense. I'm gonna go to the Jacksonville Jaguar.
Speaker 1: We are so we are so aligned, Mike, Yeah, that's
Speaker 1: where I was going. I ever heard you talk about this,
Speaker 1: gil Um? So I didn't know that, but no I haven't.
Speaker 1: I have never talked about it. But that's what I
Speaker 1: was going to pay. I like the fact that uh
Speaker 1: Bean bell rallied around his quarterback and then playing that
Speaker 1: idiotic decision to air the ghost comments Um. The Jets
Speaker 1: are not as bad as they looked on Monday night.
Speaker 1: I'm still not sold on the Jacksonville offense. I know
Speaker 1: Minshew has been serviceable, but I think the Jets bounce
Speaker 1: back here. I think if they can give Darnald time.
Speaker 1: I just think that this game, this game is ripe
Speaker 1: for an upset and a bounce back spot for the Jets. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think six too many. I'm not even gonna add
Speaker 1: anything to that. I immediately gravitated George this game. The
Speaker 1: Jets aren't as bad as they looked Monday night. How
Speaker 1: could you be? I mean, Sam the Sam Donald does
Speaker 1: do this one thing where if he starts out poorly,
Speaker 1: have you ever seen a quarterback whose spirals, as you know,
Speaker 1: as rapidly as that guy does in game in a
Speaker 1: in a situation like that, he just he's like, oh,
Speaker 1: I threw two picks. Let me just go crazy and
Speaker 1: and and make the worst decisions here down the stretch. Um.
Speaker 1: I know that doesn't sound like that that's a vote
Speaker 1: for the Jets, but I do think there are far
Speaker 1: better football team than that. I think they're after they
Speaker 1: beat the Cowboys the week before we called them. If
Speaker 1: they have Sam Donald, maybe they're a perfectly average football team.
Speaker 1: So I would say, if any of the big favorites
Speaker 1: that we just mentioned were to lose, I would go
Speaker 1: to this game because I'm not sold on Jacksonville either,
Speaker 1: So Jacksonville would be my choice. Yes, before we go
Speaker 1: to the final question, can I ask rufus a question? Please?
Speaker 1: Rufus um? So I think I can say with confidence
Speaker 1: for the other three of them, Gil Todd and myself
Speaker 1: that in terms of volume we do more in game
Speaker 1: wagering and pre flop wagering. How do you approach in
Speaker 1: game wagering and how much of let's say percentage of
Speaker 1: your volume of wagering is it? So I don't do
Speaker 1: any live live wagering. I bet second halves, um, but
Speaker 1: I don't bet nearly as much on second halfs as
Speaker 1: I used to it, at least for football. I mean
Speaker 1: for uh, it used to be maybe four or five
Speaker 1: years ago. UM. Maybe my football volume was second halfs.
Speaker 1: I had a model that that did quite well. But
Speaker 1: I think the market has caught up a little bit
Speaker 1: there and so there's not you know, as many opportunities.
Speaker 1: But the issue, I mean, live betting is very um
Speaker 1: labor intensive and time intensive and um. And the other
Speaker 1: thing is there are issues with um with being well
Speaker 1: with limits and as well as particular books, I think
Speaker 1: mostly New Jersey, you know, waiting for approval and kind
Speaker 1: of free rolling themselves. And that's why you only go
Speaker 1: a commercials groupe. Right, Yeah, do you find yourself doing
Speaker 1: more of your betting in New Jersey in terms of
Speaker 1: legal sports books? Um, well more than when there weren't
Speaker 1: legal sports looks in New Jersey. Well, no, I meant,
Speaker 1: I meant Visa v versus Nevada. Um, I think it's no.
Speaker 1: I think still more in Nevada. But New Jersey does
Speaker 1: offer have better offerings for certain things like like golf, Um,
Speaker 1: you know the fan duel for example, as like top
Speaker 1: ten forty for tournaments like yes or Nos, and and
Speaker 1: more of the European offerings. But the problem is the
Speaker 1: books in New Jersey or more of the European style
Speaker 1: books generally and more likely to limit winning betters. I
Speaker 1: have sat with rufus of the past on college football
Speaker 1: Saturday at a Pro Football Sunday and watched you do
Speaker 1: your halftime wagering. This is like you said four years
Speaker 1: ago or something like that. Uh, and you were massive
Speaker 1: volume for that type of wager. So it's interesting to
Speaker 1: hear that you know things change, right, for sure? They
Speaker 1: do in sports betting. Yeah, honestly, I was returned. I was, yeah,
Speaker 1: returning a lot on NFL and college football halftimes. In
Speaker 1: the last three years, it's basically been break even. So
Speaker 1: it kind of just abruptly, you know, the winds of
Speaker 1: change arrived, the winds of change songs? Are you? Oh,
Speaker 1: I don't know that one, Rufus. Are you? Are you
Speaker 1: aware though, of the incredible disparity between books on in
Speaker 1: game lines, Yes, I am. I know that it's just
Speaker 1: more of a limits issue. And ay and ay, I
Speaker 1: mean that that sounds to be the labor intensiveness and
Speaker 1: the limits are the reason you don't really want to
Speaker 1: do it. And I don't even have a live model myself. Um,
Speaker 1: I've I guess I tried to build one maybe a
Speaker 1: decade ago, when I was like, this is gonna be
Speaker 1: the future. But you're having to monitor a bunch of
Speaker 1: games at the same time, and it's hard to it's
Speaker 1: hard to really scale it. That's the biggest thing. And
Speaker 1: you have a life now, rufus. You have a life. Now,
Speaker 1: you have a life, if not a wife, rufus, rufus.
Speaker 1: If I can give you one tip, a life is negative, evy,
Speaker 1: that's why I waited ten years to have a life.
Speaker 1: Can I follow up and ask since you guys are
Speaker 1: betting live What type of live betting are you doing?
Speaker 1: Are you are you my nitoring all? Do you monitor
Speaker 1: all these games going on at the same time and
Speaker 1: look for opportunities? Are you just near zeroing in on
Speaker 1: a few games? I do the first the former Mikey
Speaker 1: I would I would say I will focus on an
Speaker 1: NFL on a ten am slate with eight to nine games,
Speaker 1: on two or three games that I'm looking at to
Speaker 1: find value. Uh. I do a lot of Baseball and
Speaker 1: hockey end game, and it's typically on games I've already
Speaker 1: pre flop bet and I have a lean to already
Speaker 1: or theory on the game or or somewhere where I
Speaker 1: disagree with the pre flop market, I'll focus on those
Speaker 1: games more. Obviously it's easier now when you get to
Speaker 1: the playoffs because there's fewer games you can focus on
Speaker 1: in baseball. Um, but yeah, typically, But for me, for
Speaker 1: limits aren't a problem because both pre flop and end
Speaker 1: game I'm a five d to three thousand dollar better,
Speaker 1: so I don't really have to come up against those limits. Well,
Speaker 1: I mean, I would think one thing with in game
Speaker 1: betting is you can craft yourself quite a large position
Speaker 1: if you if you like you know, let's say you
Speaker 1: like one team at one commercial break, and then you're
Speaker 1: probably gonna like them. You might continue to like them.
Speaker 1: But do you do you, I mean, do you have
Speaker 1: an idea of what you're looking for before the game?
Speaker 1: Do you give me an example? Rufus all give you
Speaker 1: an example of what I'm looking for? Often, very often
Speaker 1: late in the second quarter. We've talked about this on
Speaker 1: a numbers game with Guilt Show. Many times late in
Speaker 1: the second quarter there are massive mistakes, very often by
Speaker 1: the books. One game that comes to mind was the
Speaker 1: Seattle l A Ram Thursday Night game a couple of
Speaker 1: weeks ago, where it was fourteen six with a minute
Speaker 1: forty to go. Seattle had the ball at the Ram
Speaker 1: thirty and it was fourth and one. They were deciding
Speaker 1: whether to kick the field goal or not. If you
Speaker 1: if they kicked the field goal, you're at twenty three
Speaker 1: and you have to assume the Rams are going to
Speaker 1: get three more on the other side, or at least
Speaker 1: two and a half you know from an expected return.
Speaker 1: Uh and they and the they put it up at
Speaker 1: forty nine and a half, which was obviously slightly short
Speaker 1: because the second half line had to have been twenty
Speaker 1: four and a half because the original line was forty nine,
Speaker 1: so they really doing you know, And of course Seattle
Speaker 1: could have gotten a touchdown and or the Rams could
Speaker 1: have gotten a touchdown, which is exactly what happened. So
Speaker 1: you ended up getting on the good side of twenty
Speaker 1: four when when twenty four and a half is going
Speaker 1: to be the second half line. So if you like
Speaker 1: it over anyways and you're getting the extra point there,
Speaker 1: it's like it's a delicious spot. That's just one example.
Speaker 1: I mean there's a lot of examples, obviously. Do you
Speaker 1: find I know that the end of game scenarios are
Speaker 1: the hardest for the books to model, like, you know,
Speaker 1: it is really hard to model live football without like
Speaker 1: simulation based stuff, and so I do, like I feel
Speaker 1: like just I think betters have there are definitely more
Speaker 1: opportunities there. Do you have you found that I would
Speaker 1: agree with that wholeheartedly, both in football and in baseball.
Speaker 1: By the way, I think that they have real trouble
Speaker 1: late in baseball games, and I think they have real
Speaker 1: trouble lated in football games. In fact, in football games,
Speaker 1: like you can almost take it to the extreme. If
Speaker 1: you're watching a game you can see on the screen
Speaker 1: based on who you know, the personnel that they bring
Speaker 1: into a game, and based on the in game number
Speaker 1: they're throwing out there that it's almost a free before
Speaker 1: you at the end, like if it's twenty four point
Speaker 1: s brand then it's minus twenty four whatever. You can
Speaker 1: see the intentions of that team at that point. Baseball
Speaker 1: is a little more mechanical, but I think they have
Speaker 1: more difficulty, more difficulty for sure the later in games.
Speaker 1: For me, it's much other. Last night, Gil Gil last
Speaker 1: night was a perfect example with the with the Fernando
Speaker 1: Rodney twelve because even even though Rodney wasn't the mistake,
Speaker 1: you were still getting two and a half innings of
Speaker 1: great hitting teams and you were only costing you two runs.
Speaker 1: And you knew Houston would have all their ship ballers
Speaker 1: in because there were down eight runs and Washington was
Speaker 1: gonna they were gonna give they were gonna give you Rodney.
Speaker 1: And that number is just not a correct number because
Speaker 1: two and a half innings, two runs, that's based off
Speaker 1: the original line. That's just not right. And and no model,
Speaker 1: and no model necessarily is going to know the personnel
Speaker 1: like the anticipated personnel coming in or or build the
Speaker 1: bill bell check is hunting from you know, his opponents
Speaker 1: thirty one, which basically signals that he's done trying, done
Speaker 1: scoring points for the game. To this roofus to your
Speaker 1: endo game question. You know there's instances in football where
Speaker 1: they'll post the number. Let's say a team is ahead
Speaker 1: by six and the other team has the ball in
Speaker 1: a disadvantaged situation, either deep in their own territory or
Speaker 1: they take a sack and its second and eighteen, and
Speaker 1: they'll post the team that's ahead minus say six and
Speaker 1: a half minus three hundred, there's four minutes to go
Speaker 1: in the game. Well, the only way you're gonna that
Speaker 1: you're gonna cover that um is if you get a
Speaker 1: pick six or a scoop six, because if they stop
Speaker 1: them on downs one, first downald run out and it
Speaker 1: doesn't model that, and you know you can lay three
Speaker 1: and four hundred and some of those spots because it's
Speaker 1: really seven or eight to one that that's gonna happen.
Speaker 1: The other thing I like to do with baseball is,
Speaker 1: you know William Hill offers end game first five, right, son,
Speaker 1: I'm a first five better because I can't bet full
Speaker 1: games because of all friends I've taken. I want to
Speaker 1: take every boltpen out of play because of the un predictability. Right,
Speaker 1: So like last night, you get four runs in the
Speaker 1: first and then going to the third, the five inning
Speaker 1: line is still six and a half. Well, it opened
Speaker 1: in the first five innings the number is three and
Speaker 1: a half. Now it's two and a half for three innings.
Speaker 1: The math is on your side, it's gonna be under
Speaker 1: You're getting a better value on terms of at bats
Speaker 1: to number of runs scored. So I just think you're
Speaker 1: looking for those opportunities. I think that's exactly even even
Speaker 1: if it's even if it's second or third time through
Speaker 1: the order, whatever it is, Right, there's some things on
Speaker 1: their side too, But I agree with you, Mike, like
Speaker 1: the just the math is in your favor at that point,
Speaker 1: and there's so many of those opportunities in both baseball
Speaker 1: and football, you just have to really dive into it.
Speaker 1: By the way, in football betting, this takes away game sequence,
Speaker 1: you know, game actually trajectory out of it entirely. But
Speaker 1: like there are markets also that are being offered, like
Speaker 1: at h Forstan a bookmaker, which is a sponsor to
Speaker 1: this podcast, where I'm betting on replay, whether to stand
Speaker 1: or not to stand. Right, it's obviously a quirky little market,
Speaker 1: but they're making a market for stuff like that, and
Speaker 1: some of those are they limited, Right, it's only three
Speaker 1: pop and you have to keep doing it, but some
Speaker 1: of those are you know, Look, it's getting harder and harder.
Speaker 1: Let me just say it was easier a couple of
Speaker 1: years ago. Is now you really don't know sometimes what's
Speaker 1: a catch, what's not a catch, what any of these
Speaker 1: rules mean. But there are so many better opportunities. Even
Speaker 1: something like that is a more sure thing than the
Speaker 1: standard preflop bets that we all have to fill content
Speaker 1: talking about with at nauseum. Right, So I mean that
Speaker 1: should tell you right there. I mean NFL NFL sides
Speaker 1: are are about as especially in game day, are about
Speaker 1: as efficient market as there is right in the sports
Speaker 1: betting world. Right. But one other point to make is
Speaker 1: the proof is in the pudding. If one book is
Speaker 1: at thirty six and a half and the other book
Speaker 1: is at thirty eight and a half, somebody's wrong. Somebody's wrong.
Speaker 1: That's right. All the time. Me and Mike are sitting
Speaker 1: at the south point and we're looking at our phones
Speaker 1: were like, these lines are so incredibly some d is wrong.
Speaker 1: The problem with that, though, is that if you're betting
Speaker 1: live stuff. From what I've heard, um, betting live stuff
Speaker 1: is I guess, aside from props, the quickest way to
Speaker 1: get UM to get limited, especially in these New Jersey books.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, that's a different story. But betting live stuff
Speaker 1: and doing it in an educated way, and it were
Speaker 1: especially if if they see you're betting something, that's where
Speaker 1: they're where they're different from the market. Yeah, I haven't
Speaker 1: had that. That's a whole another that's a whole another
Speaker 1: topic you're talking about, you know, how to count cards
Speaker 1: without looking smart as opposed to um, you know what.
Speaker 1: It's a great point obviously, but Gil, you know what
Speaker 1: Gil would say, Gil, what would you say to that? About?
Speaker 1: What about what Ruf's getting banned? Like, oh, I know
Speaker 1: what you're getting at. No, what Rufus is doing is
Speaker 1: in game, Betty, that's a different thing. What I was
Speaker 1: referring to, which I think is what you're referring to,
Speaker 1: is people were getting banned at William Hill as a
Speaker 1: badge of honor. Some people like Rufus have earned that
Speaker 1: that badge of honor. Other people liked to go around say,
Speaker 1: oh I got banded at William Hill, they don't take
Speaker 1: my bets. If you're getting bets at william Hill, you
Speaker 1: can't be that smart. Um. I don't want to get
Speaker 1: band at william Hill, right, so I will I will
Speaker 1: purposely not be an asshole so that I can still
Speaker 1: all the calendar year get these unbelievable betting opportunities from them.
Speaker 1: I'm not like making a killing becoming rich off them,
Speaker 1: but I'm getting thousands at a time betting the NL
Speaker 1: wild Who's gonna win the NL wild Card game? Right?
Speaker 1: I couldn't lose. I had the Gnats and the Brewers.
Speaker 1: I set myself up with that, the Browns, I have
Speaker 1: the you know, not make the playoffs and plus money
Speaker 1: plus one fifty five over eight and a half. Like
Speaker 1: William Hill shouldn't be putting up those two props together. Someone,
Speaker 1: someone who put those up together is stupid for having
Speaker 1: put them up, And it's my job is a better
Speaker 1: to exploit that. But I'm not gonna go in and
Speaker 1: pound the crap out of it and then talk about
Speaker 1: how dumb they are on my show so I can
Speaker 1: get banned. Why would I want to do that. And
Speaker 1: so if people, by the way Ed Miller feels the
Speaker 1: same way I do, Ed Miller, who plays poker but
Speaker 1: who wrote a book on the logic of sports betting,
Speaker 1: that's not our intention. And like, if you think we're
Speaker 1: lesser for not having been banned, you don't really get
Speaker 1: what the motivation is. So that I think that's what
Speaker 1: you referring to write UH sort of down that road.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, really the bottom line, me and Mike,
Speaker 1: I think we're just trying to make the point that
Speaker 1: there are advantages and and probably Ruffin's is right that
Speaker 1: you know if you do it too smart. Thankfully I
Speaker 1: mixing enough dumbness that they don't ban me just yet. Well,
Speaker 1: I think what gil Gil all you were saying was
Speaker 1: the short game versus the long game, right, I mean,
Speaker 1: you want there's more e V and having a William
Speaker 1: Hill account, um, then there is and maybe making a
Speaker 1: bunch of money off of something in the short term,
Speaker 1: which you could, but then losing that And and believe me,
Speaker 1: I know how valuable William Hill is. I went to UH,
Speaker 1: I was in New Jersey last May and was betting
Speaker 1: that I wanted to see if I could bet there,
Speaker 1: because you know, I couldn't bet it William Hill in
Speaker 1: Nevada they were taking five thousand dollars on golf round
Speaker 1: matchups for me on the app and then for and
Speaker 1: then eight hours later my account was shut down. But yeah,
Speaker 1: well or limited to ten dollars. Sorry. You come in
Speaker 1: there with blinking neon lights though, rufus I would imagine
Speaker 1: for them at this point. I don't. I don't. I
Speaker 1: don't think people were like, I don't think people really
Speaker 1: recognize me. Well, I'm just saying figuratively speaking, I'm sure
Speaker 1: they're aware of you. I mean occasionally when I do
Speaker 1: wear the neon lights, they do. Yes, Okay, I know
Speaker 1: sometimes maybe you should not coming from Burning Man? Are
Speaker 1: you still going to Burning Man? I went for the
Speaker 1: first time this year. It was incredible. Really, you love
Speaker 1: you seem like the kind of guy that would love that.
Speaker 1: What is by the way, I've always wanted to go
Speaker 1: to Burning Man. I've always wanted to go. I'll put
Speaker 1: it this way. There's something for everybody there. I said.
Speaker 1: My parents would have had a great time too. You know,
Speaker 1: if you can be like a druggy party person, you
Speaker 1: can be a completely sober person you can have appreciate art,
Speaker 1: appreciate music, just the spirit of of whimsical playfulness that
Speaker 1: that sort of embodies. There's no commerce, burning man, it's
Speaker 1: a gift economy. It's it's fantastic, Todd. There's no sports,
Speaker 1: there's no sports book there, Todd, you wouldn't have a
Speaker 1: good time. I know. And it's always the it's always
Speaker 1: the first week of college football. But don't worry. I've before.
Speaker 1: Can I just ask you one other question, please? Okay,
Speaker 1: the other day I wore a shirt exactly like what
Speaker 1: Rufus is wearing today, and you ridiculed me mercilessly that
Speaker 1: I was wearing a tablecloth from a restaurant. How Come
Speaker 1: you didn't do that to Rufus? Okay, So I'm gonna
Speaker 1: answer that honestly, since we're doing an authentic show here. Okay.
Speaker 1: So now let me get this from from the great
Speaker 1: Deborah Song, who is a fashion stylist. Okay, she talks
Speaker 1: as amazing fashion. That's right. Rufus was completely dressed by
Speaker 1: her on ESPN. Right, So what Deborah would say is this,
Speaker 1: and this applies to me. I'm not picking on you
Speaker 1: to Todd. What she used to say to me is
Speaker 1: because I used to be slim like Rufus. Rufus is
Speaker 1: a very slender young man. As we have gotten older.
Speaker 1: Let me just say about me, as I have gotten older,
Speaker 1: I'm not as slim as I used to be, right,
Speaker 1: I used to be pretty young and pretty. But as
Speaker 1: you get bigger, you are not able to wear the
Speaker 1: same things. Everything looks on a slim person, right, So
Speaker 1: Rufus could put on anything and it would look great
Speaker 1: on him. That's why not clothes. Clothes and a slim person, right,
Speaker 1: not good. But there's a reason why mannekins and stores
Speaker 1: are all slim. Right. So basically what I was told
Speaker 1: from Debra is that look, she goes, if you were slim,
Speaker 1: it would look good on you, but because you're not,
Speaker 1: it kind of looks slumpy. And so that's my answer.
Speaker 1: So the proof is, Mike, I need you to get
Speaker 1: that shirt and walk around Gil and we'll see what
Speaker 1: he says. Okay, that'll be the determinant if I like
Speaker 1: this experiment. Yeah, Mike is not exact rufus in. You know,
Speaker 1: Mike is definitely not what I would call a slender
Speaker 1: young man. I would call him more on the portly
Speaker 1: side Porky. Wow, okay, why are you so angry this morning? Yeah? Yeah,
Speaker 1: so angry? You locked into an extra hour of pay
Speaker 1: from Visa the world. Oh I think I hit I
Speaker 1: hit a nerve with Mikey. Shot fired against me. Mikey,
Speaker 1: you know I love you. Come on, Mikey, you know
Speaker 1: I love you. Love everybody you beat regularly at tennis. That's,
Speaker 1: by the way, that noted Todd wishnev tennis ringer. Unbelievable
Speaker 1: tennis prowess for a man of his size. Al Right,
Speaker 1: we'll have to play tennis sometime, Rufus, Come on down.
Speaker 1: We make lines and everything we do in game, everything fantastic.
Speaker 1: That sounds amazing. Oh well, keeping each other alive, that's
Speaker 1: the main point, um. All right. Then the final question
Speaker 1: would be, and it seems kind of trivial at this point,
Speaker 1: but if you had to bet every single one of
Speaker 1: these uh in the bizarro world, but you are allowed
Speaker 1: one past one game that you want no part of
Speaker 1: whatsoever on the side, Rufus, what game would that be?
Speaker 1: Scottle Atlanta, which is actually a line up their right.
Speaker 1: I think Atlanta is a team that is has stumped me.
Speaker 1: They are Um, there they look awful in terms of
Speaker 1: the metrics. They look awful according to the I S.
Speaker 1: But they have they should be better based on the
Speaker 1: talent they have on that on that team. They have
Speaker 1: not been particularly unlucky with injuries either. Um, they were
Speaker 1: in wind now mode through up against the salary cap.
Speaker 1: They you know, you have guys with track records and
Speaker 1: and and Matt Ryan is you know, according to the numbers,
Speaker 1: and according to many people's eye tests, still playing quite well.
Speaker 1: And yet they here they are and you know, a
Speaker 1: train wreck. It completes that. But it's the defense, though, rufus.
Speaker 1: The defense is not interested in tackling another team. No,
Speaker 1: it's I think, honestly that coaching staff needs to go.
Speaker 1: And I'm guessing they're gonna go. I mean, what next
Speaker 1: week they have the by after this week, I'm betting
Speaker 1: dan Quinn is fired on Monday or Sunday night. And
Speaker 1: I would I would lay a big price on that. Actually,
Speaker 1: I wish there was a market for that, I really do. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I know a Falcons fan who who who actually heard
Speaker 1: that as well? So and that dan Quinn has heard
Speaker 1: that too. That's that's with these things work. Yes, the Falcons, Like, yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't think it. Dan Quinn his he's the defensive
Speaker 1: coordinator now he took over play calling duties and and
Speaker 1: look how bad they've been. I mean, I think the
Speaker 1: reason I think it's becoming apparent that the reason they
Speaker 1: were like they made the Super Bowl was was they
Speaker 1: had Kyle Shanahan directing that offense. And um, I don't
Speaker 1: know who was the defensive coordinator then. I mean they
Speaker 1: did not have a great defense. But dan Quinn seems
Speaker 1: to lose. I mean, just like Anthony Lynn. Do you
Speaker 1: remember that year, Um, I think it was the year
Speaker 1: before they won the Super Bowl where they just seemed
Speaker 1: to lose every uh every game, every close game, Like
Speaker 1: they could score with twenty seven seconds left to take
Speaker 1: a two point lead and the other team always comes
Speaker 1: down field goal every single time. The The the Chargers
Speaker 1: game against Denver last year is still the seminal moment
Speaker 1: in Anthony Lynn's career to me, where they had the
Speaker 1: third and short and ne plus territory Rivers of course
Speaker 1: throws it into the ground. They managed to uh let
Speaker 1: Denver matriculate down the field. Um is it then effect
Speaker 1: or is at the Rivers? In fact, I feel like
Speaker 1: Rivers has always has never come through in big games. Well,
Speaker 1: so you know that that ending against Tennessee this past week,
Speaker 1: Rufus is funny you bring this up because this has
Speaker 1: been my thing with Rivers for years now. Find me
Speaker 1: footage and apparently weren't. Weren't sharp play found one play.
Speaker 1: But I used to say, find me footage of Philip
Speaker 1: Rivers ever sneaking the football. It's as if he hates
Speaker 1: It's as if it's a right. So like that last
Speaker 1: sequence against the Titans, the Titans didn't have to think
Speaker 1: about that as a as an option for the charges.
Speaker 1: They're like, nope, they're gonna give it to Melvin Gordon.
Speaker 1: We know that, like they never had to worry about
Speaker 1: Rivers sneaking, and like that's a competitive disadvantage for sure.
Speaker 1: By the way, Todd, why don't you tell Rufus what
Speaker 1: since he brought up the Atlanta Falcons game. What's my
Speaker 1: nickname on the tennis court that you've given me? Well, Rufus,
Speaker 1: we call my good friend Gil who makes unforced air
Speaker 1: after unforced air, we call him Gilly Ice, which means
Speaker 1: what exactly it means. Maddie Ice is very talent it.
Speaker 1: You can throw the ball all over the place, but
Speaker 1: he's gonna make a big mistake in a big ball
Speaker 1: in a big time. He's gonna make an unforced their
Speaker 1: at a big time. And that's why we love gilly Ice.
Speaker 1: And we love giving him minus two in the in
Speaker 1: a three game set and he loses three. Oh, even
Speaker 1: though he's head so so he's got he's got the strokes.
Speaker 1: He looks like he should be good. And then and then,
Speaker 1: and if you go the eye test, the guy looks
Speaker 1: like Ohio State. I mean, you can't. You got to
Speaker 1: see him in the practice. He's smashing the ball, he's
Speaker 1: got a giant serve. He's fantastic. But all the money
Speaker 1: is on the table and it's Mr gilly Ice right
Speaker 1: there was I know exactly what you're talking about. There
Speaker 1: was a guy in my high school tennis team. He
Speaker 1: looked like he was going to be a professional. In practice,
Speaker 1: literally he was so good and then and then I
Speaker 1: would beat him six out just because he just when
Speaker 1: it counted, he did not. He was not mentally strong,
Speaker 1: you know. And I'm the opposite. I'm the opposite. I
Speaker 1: I look like the fattest guy you've ever seen in
Speaker 1: your life, who couldn't even last two minutes on the
Speaker 1: on the court, but got the mental fortitude of a
Speaker 1: young Mike Palm. I'm thrilled, I asked, thrilled. I asked Mikey,
Speaker 1: same question. What do you want no part of? I
Speaker 1: choose this game because I have no read on the
Speaker 1: Cleveland team Brown's Patriots. I I don't get this team.
Speaker 1: I their talent level, they haven't performed to it. They're
Speaker 1: so inconsistent. I could see them going into New England
Speaker 1: and giving them a good game. I could see them
Speaker 1: getting beat by thirty five. So I I just I
Speaker 1: don't have a read. I know New England's defense is
Speaker 1: very good. Fox bro is tough to play, but the
Speaker 1: Browns should be a lot better than they are. So
Speaker 1: this is a pass for me. Tough number Todd without
Speaker 1: reading the talm Wood, what is your pick? I don't
Speaker 1: even get that line. What does that mean? Because it
Speaker 1: would take a long time. Whatever. So I've overtalked, so
Speaker 1: one show, I undertalk and I get get in trouble.
Speaker 1: Now I overtalk and get in trouble. Okay, that's great, Um,
Speaker 1: I will I will take my game that I do
Speaker 1: not want a part of as I'm gonna go with
Speaker 1: Ellie Chargers Chicago Bears. When you've got Troubinsky involved, and
Speaker 1: you've got Anthony Lynn, and you've got the religious Philip Rivers.
Speaker 1: You know, Uh, Philip Jesus did say you could sneak
Speaker 1: the ball into the end zone. You know that. I
Speaker 1: know you're not allowed to swear, and you have to
Speaker 1: have eight hundred kids, but you could sneak the ball in.
Speaker 1: Every once in a while, I will say I don't
Speaker 1: want any part of that game. I'm gonna use the
Speaker 1: same answer that I used for the team most likely
Speaker 1: to lose out right Jets Jacksonville, because to me, that's
Speaker 1: the most volatible score for me. So I can just
Speaker 1: as easily see Jacksonville win as I can see the
Speaker 1: excuse the Jets win, as I can see Jacksonville blowing
Speaker 1: them out. So for me, that's the complete stay away
Speaker 1: Jacksonville and the Jets, gentlemen. And we've enjoyed it, or
Speaker 1: at least I've enjoyed it. Uh. Todd in Uh, Mike
Speaker 1: Mike Palm from Circus Sports, Todd from Action and Visa.
Speaker 1: Mike is all over Visa as well. Mike it was
Speaker 1: nice to meet your wife and your child. Yesterday by
Speaker 1: the way, you know, uh, we were there at the
Speaker 1: Italy with my wife's co worker friends and the female
Speaker 1: is uh is single. And when you left, Gil, they said, oh,
Speaker 1: what about your friend? What about your friend? Is he gay?
Speaker 1: And I? Who God? I said, nobody's Jewish and gay,
Speaker 1: nobody's Jewish. That's awesome. We're so politically correct here. We're
Speaker 1: so politically correct. And Rufus b body is my old
Speaker 1: friend Rufus back on the show. Thrilled to have him on. Rufus.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for doing it, man, I appreciate it.
Speaker 1: This was so much fun. Guys, we really enjoyed it,
Speaker 1: enjoyed having you. Hopefully we could do it again sometime soon.
Speaker 1: Say hello to your buddy, Jeff I Bet the process,
Speaker 1: for Rufus, for Mike, for what's your name again? Todd Wishnev, Gil, Alexander,
Speaker 1: thank you so much for listening. Good luck with all
Speaker 1: your bets this weekend in the NFL