WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2019 NFL MegaPod Week 8 Preview 0:00:00.960 --> 0:00:11.920 Tom check It Down Man Down Man, Thursday Morning O, 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:18.320 Beating the Book Podcast, the Megapod, Week eight, Wow, Week 0:00:18.320 --> 0:00:21.599 Gate in the National Football League, Skill Alexander twenty nineteen 0:00:21.640 --> 0:00:24.400 Style with our staples of the show these days. On 0:00:24.520 --> 0:00:27.920 my right, the conciliary to Derek Stevens over at the 0:00:28.160 --> 0:00:32.080 Circus Sports Conglomerates casino moguls that they are. He's also 0:00:32.120 --> 0:00:34.440 the vice president of Operations. By his formal title, It's 0:00:34.520 --> 0:00:39.599 Mike Palm. What's happening in Mike Good Morning, Mega Pod faithful? Uh, Mike, 0:00:39.640 --> 0:00:41.559 We're gonna get a circuit update from you boitarily. And 0:00:41.560 --> 0:00:44.320 on my left Todd wishing of from not only the 0:00:44.320 --> 0:00:48.600 Showtime docuseries Action, but Wednesday appearances on a numbers game. 0:00:48.640 --> 0:00:51.400 Todd more beloved by the day. Thanks for doing this, Todd, 0:00:51.440 --> 0:00:55.800 appreciate it. What's your what's your percentage? Now? In circle 0:00:55.840 --> 0:00:59.320 in the circuit contest? What do you? And one for 0:00:59.360 --> 0:01:04.880 a robot? Whereas Rufus would say completely random, I don't know, 0:01:04.920 --> 0:01:07.240 let's find let's find out, what Rufus says. Making is 0:01:07.240 --> 0:01:10.360 a long away to return to the podcast after at 0:01:10.400 --> 0:01:12.840 least a few years away. We are happy to have 0:01:12.959 --> 0:01:15.240 him back. Ladies and Gentlemen's half of the Bet the 0:01:15.280 --> 0:01:19.440 Process podcast duo along with Jeff ma It's our old 0:01:19.440 --> 0:01:22.520 Fred Rufus. Paybody, what's happening to Rufus Guild? It's been 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:24.520 a while. How are you doing, man? Where are you 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:26.720 right now? I'm doing great. I'm in Boston. How do 0:01:26.800 --> 0:01:28.360 you like living in Boston? I went to school there 0:01:28.360 --> 0:01:30.440 for four years. It's you know, it's growing on me 0:01:30.480 --> 0:01:32.920 a little bit. There's a lot of a lot of 0:01:32.920 --> 0:01:36.920 Patriots fans, so's we'll get used to that. Have you 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:40.080 been through a winter yet? I have? It's not fun. 0:01:40.160 --> 0:01:43.479 I hope you brought a jacket. My freshman and senior years, 0:01:43.520 --> 0:01:46.240 it was minus forty wind chill. Well, luckily we have 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:48.640 global warming now, so it's it's it's not quite as bad. 0:01:49.480 --> 0:01:54.720 I believe the correct phrases climate change. Allegedly, scientists are conflicted, 0:01:55.040 --> 0:01:57.320 you know how they say it? All right? Let me stop? 0:01:57.360 --> 0:02:00.640 All right? So, Rufus, how is your football season going? 0:02:00.840 --> 0:02:03.040 How is your podcast season going? Are you and Jeff 0:02:03.080 --> 0:02:04.600 having as much fun as you always did with it? 0:02:04.720 --> 0:02:06.760 We we always have fun. We're like, you know, he's 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:09.680 like my older brother or something. It's it's It's funny. 0:02:09.720 --> 0:02:12.200 It's funny that the feedback we get some people think 0:02:12.240 --> 0:02:14.480 it's you know, some people like more of that, some 0:02:14.520 --> 0:02:16.560 people like less of that. But but we enjoy it. 0:02:16.600 --> 0:02:18.800 And and football season is has been very good for 0:02:18.880 --> 0:02:23.160 college it's been um, you know, more like less good 0:02:23.200 --> 0:02:25.920 for NFL right around break human. Yeah, I think that. 0:02:26.000 --> 0:02:29.480 I that's a common refrain that I that I hear 0:02:29.520 --> 0:02:32.400 from people, at least anecdotally. The NFL has been I 0:02:32.400 --> 0:02:34.960 mean weird is look and even teasers at least as 0:02:35.000 --> 0:02:37.840 we've shown on this show have not gone as well 0:02:38.160 --> 0:02:40.880 as we haven't have had them go in the past seasons. 0:02:41.040 --> 0:02:43.440 We'll find out how we do today before we do 0:02:43.480 --> 0:02:46.000 any of that. Mike Palm Circus Sports Update. Who's in 0:02:46.040 --> 0:02:48.320 the lead, how big is their lead? How far back 0:02:48.400 --> 0:02:52.720 is Todd? Well? Uh so? Overall for the contest, there's 0:02:52.800 --> 0:02:56.560 one entry at twenty seven point skill out of a 0:02:56.639 --> 0:03:01.760 possible Um, where are we at seven thirty five? Yeah? Um? 0:03:01.800 --> 0:03:05.440 And then one entry at twenty six point five, four 0:03:05.639 --> 0:03:10.079 entries at twenty six, two at twenty five I believe, 0:03:10.160 --> 0:03:13.120 nine at twenty four and a half, and another eleven 0:03:13.160 --> 0:03:15.680 at twenty four. How many do you have Todd how 0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:17.919 many points I have? Twenty one and a half. He's 0:03:17.919 --> 0:03:20.000 a lot, you're tat You're tied for a hundred and 0:03:20.000 --> 0:03:23.520 thirty third. In fact, your name appears amongst the fifty 0:03:23.560 --> 0:03:26.360 seven people at twenty one point five when you scroll 0:03:26.440 --> 0:03:28.880 through the results. Look at you, Toddy, how about that 0:03:28.960 --> 0:03:33.679 t Wish and nev one? There you are now as 0:03:33.720 --> 0:03:36.720 far as the second quarter, which we wrap up this weekend, yes, 0:03:37.480 --> 0:03:40.840 we're another hundred and forty three thousand, seven fifty. We 0:03:40.920 --> 0:03:45.440 have two entries at thirteen, we have seven entries at 0:03:45.440 --> 0:03:48.320 twelve and a half, and another sixteen at twelve. So 0:03:48.360 --> 0:03:51.280 there's twenty five entries within one point of the lead 0:03:51.360 --> 0:03:53.600 here as we come into the final week of quarter two. 0:03:53.720 --> 0:03:55.800 And again, for those who don't know, the circuit contest 0:03:55.880 --> 0:03:59.800 features as one of their sort of staples quarterly contests 0:03:59.800 --> 0:04:01.760 for or a hundred forty seven thousand dollars, is it 0:04:01.800 --> 0:04:03.840 turned out you can try and get in November, you 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:05.600 can try and get in December. On this the record 0:04:05.640 --> 0:04:07.520 and quarter one that one was seventeen and three and 0:04:07.520 --> 0:04:10.320 that was a solo winner, right, yeah, seventeen and a half. 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:13.200 I think maybe it was seventeen and three. But that's 0:04:13.240 --> 0:04:16.000 the surprising thing was that it was a solo winner. Yea, 0:04:16.240 --> 0:04:19.280 so it's odd. You know, we had one push and 0:04:19.400 --> 0:04:21.560 quarter one. Now we had another push last week and 0:04:21.680 --> 0:04:25.200 quarter two. So it'll be interesting though. I I find 0:04:25.240 --> 0:04:28.680 the long shot as if we'd have another solo winner. Yeah, 0:04:28.680 --> 0:04:31.040 I would think that's the case. It's always interesting, you know, 0:04:31.080 --> 0:04:32.600 we were talking about this on the show the other day, 0:04:32.640 --> 0:04:36.240 how everything in in sports betting is its own discipline 0:04:36.240 --> 0:04:39.839 and pre flop. You know, a TS National Football League 0:04:40.160 --> 0:04:43.640 is its own thing with I guess its own. Some 0:04:43.760 --> 0:04:45.920 might say, you know, it's not a skill, some might 0:04:45.960 --> 0:04:47.960 say it's random. But you know, James Selinas, who I 0:04:48.000 --> 0:04:50.200 always go back on. He won the Super Contest one year, 0:04:50.200 --> 0:04:52.719 he finished third, the next year, finished twenty six the 0:04:52.720 --> 0:04:55.440 couple of years later. He's about the only guy in 0:04:55.560 --> 0:04:57.440 modern history that I can sort of say that about 0:04:57.480 --> 0:05:00.359 where he's been able to be consistent over time. But 0:05:00.480 --> 0:05:03.960 even as we point out, that's still only what over 0:05:04.160 --> 0:05:07.480 two hundred and forty some picks over three seasons, so 0:05:07.560 --> 0:05:10.640 even that could be subject to randomness. Even though he's 0:05:10.720 --> 0:05:13.200 told us his method, and he watches a lot of 0:05:13.200 --> 0:05:16.239 game film and so who knows, but um, that's the story. 0:05:16.320 --> 0:05:18.120 Anybody can catch lightning in a bottle in a four 0:05:18.120 --> 0:05:21.640 week period, that's for sure. Certainly hasn't happened to me. Todd, 0:05:21.680 --> 0:05:23.440 we had a shot, but that we we craped out 0:05:23.480 --> 0:05:26.560 week two of this particular month. So we'll keep that monitored. 0:05:27.320 --> 0:05:29.640 Before we get into our best bets of the week, gentlemen, 0:05:29.839 --> 0:05:32.239 let us do Thursday night football real quick, because people 0:05:32.240 --> 0:05:34.280 want to hear about that first. If you don't have 0:05:34.320 --> 0:05:37.440 an opinion, no biggie Minnesota Vikings sixteen and a half 0:05:37.440 --> 0:05:41.239 point favorites against the Washington Redskins rufus favorite team along 0:05:41.240 --> 0:05:43.640 with mine. If we can't even say that anymore, rufus, 0:05:43.640 --> 0:05:45.840 So you're still an Orioles fan, not a Nationals fan, right, 0:05:47.680 --> 0:05:50.159 so you feel nothing about this Nationals run in the 0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:52.200 World Series. Not much. You know, I actually wanted them 0:05:52.240 --> 0:05:54.400 to win that Wildcard game when they were losing, um, 0:05:54.480 --> 0:05:57.360 just because I was like everybody, all these Nationals fans 0:05:57.360 --> 0:05:59.080 have had a lot of heartbreak in the playoffs over 0:05:59.120 --> 0:06:01.800 the years, and so now that they're on the cusp 0:06:01.839 --> 0:06:03.560 of winning the World Series, I'm not sure how I 0:06:03.600 --> 0:06:05.440 feel that, and I'm not sure how we feel about 0:06:05.440 --> 0:06:07.880 the Redskins at this point. Either the fandom has been 0:06:07.880 --> 0:06:10.120 beaten out of us. I would imagine, honestly, I'm rooting 0:06:10.120 --> 0:06:12.800 for defeat. Um, I'm rooting for embarrassment. I'm rooting for 0:06:12.839 --> 0:06:16.080 anything that will result in systemic change in that organization. 0:06:16.200 --> 0:06:18.839 I agree with that wholeheartedly. Viking sixteen and a half 0:06:18.880 --> 0:06:21.839 point favorites tonight. Some people will, by narrative, call it 0:06:21.839 --> 0:06:24.599 the Kirk Cousins revenge game. It's equally the case Keenum 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:27.080 revenge game, I would imagine, and Adrian Peterson making it 0:06:27.120 --> 0:06:29.359 returned in Minnesota. But the Redskins aren't very good at 0:06:29.360 --> 0:06:32.120 football and the Vikings uh seem to be quite good 0:06:32.120 --> 0:06:34.080 at it on both sides of the football. Kirk Cousins 0:06:34.080 --> 0:06:37.119 even doing his Redskins stats thing now in the box score. 0:06:37.400 --> 0:06:39.240 But sixteen and a half is a lot of points, rufus, 0:06:39.240 --> 0:06:41.080 we start with you. Any thoughts tonight on the side 0:06:41.160 --> 0:06:42.640 or the total. It is a lot of points. And 0:06:42.720 --> 0:06:45.440 unfortunately I happen to like the Redskins here. Um, I 0:06:45.480 --> 0:06:47.880 think it. The lines actually up to seventeen in some places. 0:06:47.920 --> 0:06:52.039 Now I make it thirteen. It's it feels it's not 0:06:52.080 --> 0:06:53.960 the kind of game I like taking. Um. I feel 0:06:53.960 --> 0:06:55.960 like I've been on these big underdogs way too much 0:06:55.960 --> 0:06:59.280 and the NFL we we you know, there's a lot 0:06:59.279 --> 0:07:01.680 of parody, um, but there's also a few teams that 0:07:01.720 --> 0:07:04.000 are really bad. But at the same time, I don't 0:07:04.040 --> 0:07:07.400 think they're The Redskins are seventeen points worse. UM with 0:07:07.520 --> 0:07:09.320 case team at quarterback who I do think is the 0:07:09.320 --> 0:07:12.480 best quarterback to win right now on that Redskins roster. 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:15.080 What does worry me is that Kirk Cousins does seem 0:07:15.120 --> 0:07:17.600 to play well. Um. And this is just anecdotally. He 0:07:17.640 --> 0:07:20.320 seems to play well against the bad teams like he 0:07:20.880 --> 0:07:23.040 You know, the Vikings blow out the teams that they're 0:07:23.040 --> 0:07:25.960 supposed to beat. UM. That happened against the Raiders earlier. 0:07:26.040 --> 0:07:30.840 They beat the Eagles at home, um pretty handily. And 0:07:30.880 --> 0:07:34.000 so I'm hoping, um, I'm hoping against the Redskins keep 0:07:34.000 --> 0:07:36.600 it close while somehow still being embarrassing. And you're not 0:07:36.680 --> 0:07:38.840 required to watch the Redskins on your bet in this 0:07:38.840 --> 0:07:41.600 football game. You just sort of look away and see 0:07:41.640 --> 0:07:43.200 if it works out in the end. You did make 0:07:43.240 --> 0:07:46.040 a bet on this though, you did? Actually I did, Okay, Um, 0:07:46.120 --> 0:07:49.040 Mike any thoughts here tonight. It's actually my third best 0:07:49.080 --> 0:07:53.440 bet this game is under forty two tonight. Biill Callahan, 0:07:53.600 --> 0:07:57.280 who when he took over Nebraska thought it prudent to 0:07:57.360 --> 0:07:59.400 take a program that had run the ball for sixty 0:07:59.480 --> 0:08:02.400 years and as seventy at the time, now wants to 0:08:02.440 --> 0:08:04.360 run the ball seventy percent at the time now that 0:08:04.400 --> 0:08:06.800 he's taken over this Redskins, And I don't know if 0:08:06.800 --> 0:08:10.040 I necessarily blame him. Here's why I like this under. 0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:13.280 You have two quarterbacks that played for the other team. 0:08:13.320 --> 0:08:15.720 Who knows Keenam better than Zimmer. He had him for 0:08:15.760 --> 0:08:17.880 a year and went to the NFC title game with him. 0:08:18.120 --> 0:08:21.520 Didn't think they were good enough with Keenum. So I 0:08:22.080 --> 0:08:25.520 think that Zimmer knows Keenum well. Hopefully the Redskins organization 0:08:27.560 --> 0:08:31.280 knows Kirk Cousins well. Uh. In the same like, you 0:08:31.280 --> 0:08:34.520 should be prepared for both these quarterbacks. I agree with Rufus. 0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:37.439 I think it's too high of a number. I'm gonna 0:08:37.440 --> 0:08:39.760 play this game and live bets as a parlay with 0:08:39.760 --> 0:08:42.040 the Redskins and the under. But for what for my 0:08:42.080 --> 0:08:44.760 best bet? Third best bet this week under forty two? 0:08:44.800 --> 0:08:46.360 All Right, we can already mark that down from my 0:08:46.600 --> 0:08:50.280 third best bet under forty two Thursday Night Football. I 0:08:50.320 --> 0:08:52.600 like the SMU game better, by the way, as a bet, 0:08:52.679 --> 0:08:55.360 I'll take SMU. I'll lay the fourteen. Todd, what do 0:08:55.360 --> 0:08:57.640 you think here? I don't want any part of the game, 0:08:57.720 --> 0:09:01.079 but I would say that it's very possible that the 0:09:01.640 --> 0:09:04.400 Vikings get out to a huge lead, run the ball 0:09:04.440 --> 0:09:08.679 incessantly in the second half, and then Washington down twenty three, 0:09:08.840 --> 0:09:11.040 comes down and get the back door to lose by sixteen. 0:09:11.720 --> 0:09:14.120 So I don't want any part of it. In any way. 0:09:14.240 --> 0:09:15.600 I don't want any part of it either, but that 0:09:15.640 --> 0:09:18.400 that's a good point, you know, to Mike's under. The 0:09:18.480 --> 0:09:19.960 Vikings have had a couple of games this year, and 0:09:19.960 --> 0:09:21.840 most notably, perhaps the first game of the season against 0:09:21.840 --> 0:09:24.120 the Falcons, Kirk Cousins dropped back a grand total of 0:09:24.160 --> 0:09:26.880 eleven times through ten passes. I think there was a 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:29.280 subsequent game Todd and I were talking about this morning. 0:09:29.320 --> 0:09:31.520 We think it was the Oakland game where they really 0:09:31.520 --> 0:09:34.079 were like, we're running and that's all we're doing, so 0:09:34.360 --> 0:09:36.640 they're capable of really taking the air out of the 0:09:36.640 --> 0:09:38.720 ball for sure, Rufus, I saw you leaning in on 0:09:38.760 --> 0:09:41.440 my smu comment you had something to say there? Oh, yeah, 0:09:41.480 --> 0:09:44.200 you know I took uh, I took Houston there. I 0:09:44.240 --> 0:09:47.240 know they have Deeric king is is is out but 0:09:48.120 --> 0:09:49.559 and I think he's worth a lot. But I mean, 0:09:49.640 --> 0:09:52.080 I couldn't resist when I got fourteen and a half. There, 0:09:52.320 --> 0:09:55.640 I understand Dana Holgersson is so bad though, such a 0:09:55.679 --> 0:09:59.000 bad coach. Did you watch the Houston Yukon game last week? 0:09:59.360 --> 0:10:02.839 I didn't un should have won the football game out? 0:10:03.760 --> 0:10:06.000 Yeah that's that's bad. But I mean, did you watch 0:10:06.080 --> 0:10:08.959 Wisconsin Illinois? Do we think Ellinois is a better team 0:10:08.960 --> 0:10:14.720 than Wisconsin? Yeah, so go yourself, Todd. All I'll say 0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:17.920 is I just I can't stand Houston. I just can't 0:10:17.920 --> 0:10:20.280 stand him. But I hope you win. Oh great, thanks, 0:10:20.360 --> 0:10:24.120 that's very nice of you, Todd. Yeah that means you hope. Rufus. 0:10:24.160 --> 0:10:26.320 If you followed Todd's work, you'll know he's a real 0:10:26.360 --> 0:10:29.640 slave to recency. Also know you can you can get 0:10:29.679 --> 0:10:33.439 thirteen and a half with Actually, you know, I got 0:10:33.480 --> 0:10:35.920 a bookmaker. I got it at thirteen, so I'm only 0:10:35.960 --> 0:10:39.040 land thirteen there. Yeah, but thank you, so Gil, like Gil, 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:40.480 we have so we have we have a nice medal 0:10:40.520 --> 0:10:42.880 between us. That's right, that's right. We have a nice 0:10:42.880 --> 0:10:47.600 meddal fourteen points. We're all winners. That's what we're like, SMU. 0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:50.600 First half, alright, s first half? Little college football? All right, 0:10:50.640 --> 0:10:53.120 So let's do the best bets, Mike. We already have uh, 0:10:53.160 --> 0:10:55.480 your number three best bet, but rufus, let's start with 0:10:55.520 --> 0:10:58.079 your best bet in the NFL week Gate either side 0:10:58.160 --> 0:11:00.840 or total, sir um, unfortun only, I'm gonna have to 0:11:00.840 --> 0:11:03.880 go with the Bengals plus thirteen and a half points. 0:11:03.920 --> 0:11:06.840 This is I've been on the Bengals way too much, 0:11:06.920 --> 0:11:08.720 just like I've been on the Broncos way too much. 0:11:09.679 --> 0:11:12.840 So far, They're They've been bad. Um. Their offensive line 0:11:12.840 --> 0:11:15.439 play has just been absolutely horrendous. They grade is the 0:11:15.480 --> 0:11:18.760 second worst pass blocking in the league. Um. And while 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:21.080 I expect and to continue to be bad, I don't 0:11:21.320 --> 0:11:25.800 expect them to be like to be quite as bad. Um. 0:11:25.840 --> 0:11:27.960 But who are the Bengals? I mean, going into this season, 0:11:28.320 --> 0:11:31.079 we thought they were we knew them pretty well. The 0:11:31.120 --> 0:11:34.319 team with an average is quarterback in Andy Dalton, who 0:11:34.720 --> 0:11:37.280 wasn't gonna win you games on his own, but with 0:11:37.400 --> 0:11:42.040 an adequate supporting cast. Um good and the supporting cast 0:11:42.080 --> 0:11:43.800 hasn't really been there this year. I mean, obviously they 0:11:43.800 --> 0:11:45.880 haven't had an offensive line and they haven't had one 0:11:46.000 --> 0:11:49.800 in the last three seasons. But their skill position players, 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:52.840 um have not you know, been as good as in 0:11:52.920 --> 0:11:56.360 previous years. And Andy Dalton has not played as well 0:11:56.360 --> 0:11:58.480 as he had in the past. But the thing is 0:11:58.920 --> 0:12:02.559 he has he's he's an NFL quarterback. I mean he's not. Um, 0:12:02.679 --> 0:12:04.959 he's not. I'm trying to come up with an example 0:12:05.000 --> 0:12:09.560 of he's not Keith Null or any you know, not Hodges. 0:12:09.640 --> 0:12:13.240 He's not. He's not. He's not. But so so I 0:12:13.280 --> 0:12:15.960 just think, um, you know, obviously, the Dolphins are this 0:12:16.040 --> 0:12:19.600 sort of historically bad team that with with really really 0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:24.200 very little talent um across the board, and I don't 0:12:24.200 --> 0:12:26.920 think the Bengals are that team though. Um, if you 0:12:26.920 --> 0:12:30.560 look at the Rams, the Rams are are pretty you know, 0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:33.560 they're okay it offensive tackle, but their offensive line, the 0:12:33.600 --> 0:12:37.080 interior of their offensive line is just as bad. If um, 0:12:38.240 --> 0:12:41.240 it's actually worse than the Bengals and worse than any 0:12:41.240 --> 0:12:45.480 other team with the exception of the Dolphins. So also, 0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:47.920 if you look so far this season, the Bengals, they've 0:12:47.920 --> 0:12:50.200 been outscored by eleven point eight points per game. But 0:12:50.440 --> 0:12:53.360 based on my game grades, they've played to an expectation 0:12:53.400 --> 0:12:55.559 of only UM of only minus seven and a half 0:12:55.559 --> 0:12:58.360 points a game, so that that kind of that translates 0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:02.280 to UM over twenty points. That they've been kind of unlucky. 0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:06.000 And so honestly, this game is largely based on UM. 0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:07.840 It is largely based on the prior, the fact that 0:13:07.880 --> 0:13:12.160 I don't think that Cincinnati is as bad as they've shown. UM. 0:13:12.280 --> 0:13:14.319 If you like, if you like the sort of narrative 0:13:14.320 --> 0:13:17.360 that under a new coach it takes time to adjust, 0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:20.640 which UM, I feel like we've we've heard that with 0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:23.160 the Packers, right, and and the adjustment to a new 0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:26.240 offensive system with about the floor. Uh, you know, we 0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:28.440 haven't really heard that with the Bengals. But if you 0:13:28.440 --> 0:13:30.559 believe that narrative, you think that maybe the Bengals will 0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:33.680 improve a little bit as the season progresses. Either that 0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:35.840 or they'll just give up. So I'm on the Bengals 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:37.880 plus thirteen a half. I've been on the Bengals a 0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:39.400 couple of times on the road this year, and they 0:13:39.440 --> 0:13:42.280 have gotten They've gotten the cover a couple of times. Uh, 0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:44.000 they'll try to do that again here as a road 0:13:44.040 --> 0:13:49.400 dog catching thirteen at the Rams early game on Sunday. 0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:52.120 By the way, there are you know, always tracking if 0:13:52.160 --> 0:13:54.360 the NFL gets this right, there are eight early games 0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:57.480 and there are excuse me, nine early games in three 0:13:57.640 --> 0:14:01.679 afternoon games. So we're, yeah, we're subjected to that kind 0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:03.240 of schedule in the NFL at least, it's not the 0:14:03.240 --> 0:14:06.160 ten to variety. By the way, Baltimore in Dallas, the 0:14:06.160 --> 0:14:08.920 two teams on buys this week, Mike Palm best, but 0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:12.560 number one. Well, I agree with Todd on this on 0:14:12.679 --> 0:14:14.840 this premise, and we used them last week. We're going 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:17.400 to use them again. I don't understand why the market 0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:22.840 is not recognizing the difference between Fitzpatrick and rosen Um. 0:14:23.120 --> 0:14:25.760 It's stunning that that the totals will move but the 0:14:25.920 --> 0:14:30.520 sides won't move, when when we know Fitzpatrick is playing Um, 0:14:30.560 --> 0:14:33.640 this still is the Steelers team without a great defense. 0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:36.560 It's still is the Steelers team that doesn't want to 0:14:36.640 --> 0:14:39.160 let Mason Rudolph and I'm assuming he plays throw the 0:14:39.160 --> 0:14:40.960 ball down field, They're gonna go with a lot of 0:14:41.080 --> 0:14:43.800 short passes in the rounds. That type of a run 0:14:43.880 --> 0:14:47.560 based offense. We saw the Dolphins against a very good 0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:51.520 Bills defense last week, be able to sustain drives and 0:14:51.600 --> 0:14:54.760 run the ball and move the chains. I just think 0:14:54.800 --> 0:14:58.320 fourteen is way wide here. I went to your point, 0:14:58.400 --> 0:15:02.240 guilt when when you guess numbers on games. Yeah, I 0:15:02.240 --> 0:15:04.200 thought this game was more like an eight or an 0:15:04.200 --> 0:15:06.320 eight and a half. I couldn't believe it's two touchdowns. 0:15:06.360 --> 0:15:09.880 I'll take the Miami Dolphins on Monday night. It's fortune half. 0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:12.200 Give him the extra half fortune and a half. You 0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:14.480 get the hook. I will say this, and for those 0:15:14.520 --> 0:15:16.280 who didn't listen to Guessing Lines, because I think it's 0:15:16.280 --> 0:15:18.240 probably a similar audience. But and thank you, by the 0:15:18.240 --> 0:15:20.280 way to everybody who listens to it in podcast form 0:15:20.320 --> 0:15:23.520 after we air it on Visa, because still great numbers 0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:26.960 on Guessing Lines, people will find that show as great 0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:29.360 as they've always done based on the numbers. So thank 0:15:29.360 --> 0:15:31.640 you to everybody. But that was not only my worst 0:15:31.640 --> 0:15:34.400 guest of the week, and by worst, I mean furthest Off. 0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:36.280 Let me not call it worst. It was not only 0:15:36.280 --> 0:15:38.280 my furthest Off guest of the year. It is my 0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:41.400 furthest Off guests in the history, the nine year history 0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:44.600 of Guessing Lines. I had seven and a half. Fourteen 0:15:44.720 --> 0:15:47.360 is where it's posted. I've never been that far off 0:15:47.360 --> 0:15:50.920 on a number ever. Guessing now, listen, my number might 0:15:50.920 --> 0:15:53.760 not be right either, but it certainly shouldn't be fourteen. 0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:55.760 There's no justification for it. And Todd, you and I 0:15:55.800 --> 0:15:58.720 were on the air last week again when Brian Flores said, 0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:00.880 we're going with Ryan Fitzpatrick, it's not gonna be Josh 0:16:00.960 --> 0:16:04.440 Rosen and that number against the Bills stayed put the 0:16:04.440 --> 0:16:07.320 whole way through its seventeen. That doesn't make any sense 0:16:07.320 --> 0:16:09.360 to me. This number doesn't make any sense to me, 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:10.960 despite the fact that it's prime time and it's in 0:16:11.000 --> 0:16:13.280 Pittsburgh and any other narrative you want to associate with it. 0:16:13.600 --> 0:16:15.680 Give me the points. That's my first best bet as 0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:18.440 well on the Dolphins. I'll take the fourteen in a hook. Happily. 0:16:18.600 --> 0:16:21.080 By the way, the Dolphins should have won the football game. 0:16:21.120 --> 0:16:23.160 If they get it in there and to go up 0:16:23.160 --> 0:16:26.040 twenty one nine instead of throwing the pick, they're probably 0:16:26.040 --> 0:16:28.520 gonna win up twelve. It should also be noted that 0:16:28.600 --> 0:16:31.320 we barely got the cover two because it could have 0:16:31.360 --> 0:16:34.440 been a very unlucky push. Ryan Fitzpatrick fumbles at the 0:16:34.520 --> 0:16:36.240 end right and the Dolphins happened to land on it 0:16:36.280 --> 0:16:38.680 at their own five, so you know, it was Dolphins 0:16:38.720 --> 0:16:40.640 doing Dolphins things at the end. There's always that to 0:16:40.640 --> 0:16:43.360 worry about. That was after on Site's kick return for 0:16:43.400 --> 0:16:46.000 a touchdown, which is the new thing, the new rage. 0:16:46.200 --> 0:16:49.560 All of a sudden that that was great. I had 0:16:49.640 --> 0:16:53.240 the I had bills second half, so minus eight and 0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:56.280 a half. So that was that saved me a fourtuitous 0:16:56.320 --> 0:16:58.480 turn of events for you. Wait, I didn't do my 0:16:58.520 --> 0:17:03.080 first best bet. My best bet. It's gonna be just 0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:06.920 to just to make it a little more entertaining, I'm 0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:10.960 gonna go with over forty five and a half in 0:17:11.040 --> 0:17:16.720 the Tampa Tennessee game. And here's why. I think. First 0:17:16.760 --> 0:17:19.480 of all, that Tampa Bay is a great over team 0:17:19.560 --> 0:17:22.800 this year. They really are are. You know, they can 0:17:22.880 --> 0:17:27.399 be explosive on offense, but defensively they're an absolute dumpster fire. 0:17:28.040 --> 0:17:30.959 And now that Tanne Hills in the game instead of Mariota, 0:17:31.800 --> 0:17:35.080 I feel like Tennessee has a little bit more firepower 0:17:35.160 --> 0:17:37.520 throwing the football, so I think they'll be able to 0:17:37.560 --> 0:17:40.560 move the ball and score some points against Tampa Bay. Now, 0:17:40.560 --> 0:17:43.439 Tennessee's defense is pretty good, but Tampa Bay has the 0:17:43.480 --> 0:17:46.720 ability to score pretty much on anybody as well, So 0:17:46.800 --> 0:17:49.680 to me, forty five and a half's a little too low. 0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:52.840 I'm gonna go over forty five and a half for 0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:55.680 my best bet. What's trippy about this podcast this week 0:17:55.720 --> 0:17:58.080 is that I have a visual on Rufus. So Rufus 0:17:58.160 --> 0:18:00.640 is tech savvy enough where I can actually see him 0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:02.560 right so, not only by the ways he's wearing a 0:18:02.680 --> 0:18:06.200 very nice shirt which is black and checkered, checkered, black 0:18:06.240 --> 0:18:08.760 and gray, but he's got a state of the art microphone. 0:18:08.800 --> 0:18:10.600 Is that a blue? What is that, Rufus? That's very 0:18:10.680 --> 0:18:12.920 nice microphone. It is a blue, Yeah, very nice. I 0:18:13.000 --> 0:18:15.440 got enough bad feedback on my sound quality over the 0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:19.200 years with with some crappy microphone. I had that the 0:18:19.200 --> 0:18:21.760 process podcast that I finally invested in a good one. Yeah, 0:18:21.920 --> 0:18:23.359 that's a that's a nice one right there. But in 0:18:23.440 --> 0:18:26.880 having the visual on Rufus, I can see his reactions 0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:29.479 to certain comments and making that he takes notes, so 0:18:29.560 --> 0:18:32.360 you obviously had a reaction to what Todd was saying there. Well, 0:18:32.520 --> 0:18:34.800 I think you know, my second best bet is gonna 0:18:35.160 --> 0:18:36.959 might be the other side there, So I'll get into 0:18:37.000 --> 0:18:39.600 that later. Okay, I think I think it's time for 0:18:39.600 --> 0:18:41.479 your second best bet, because we've gone around the horn one. 0:18:41.520 --> 0:18:43.520 So what is your second best bet? So it is 0:18:43.560 --> 0:18:46.280 the Tampa Bay Tennessee under forty five and a half. 0:18:46.320 --> 0:18:51.840 And there you go, and why and why would you? 0:18:51.960 --> 0:18:53.959 What would you say? Why you I make I make 0:18:54.000 --> 0:18:56.280 the number forty two and a half. And and that's 0:18:56.400 --> 0:18:58.240 They could change a little based on whether there is 0:18:58.280 --> 0:19:01.800 it's they're supposed to be old drizzle. Um, it's a 0:19:01.880 --> 0:19:06.080 dreary day in Nashville, So if there is rain, um, 0:19:06.200 --> 0:19:09.080 I'll have that slightly lower as well. But but this 0:19:09.160 --> 0:19:12.080 is essentially a matchup of a slightly above average offense 0:19:12.359 --> 0:19:15.840 in in Tampa Bay versus a slightly above average UH 0:19:16.359 --> 0:19:19.680 defense and UM in Tennessee. And then a bad offense 0:19:20.680 --> 0:19:25.160 against a bad defense. So Tampa Bay is a pretty 0:19:25.160 --> 0:19:28.439 past friendly offense. They passed eighth most or expect them 0:19:28.440 --> 0:19:30.560 too relative to expectation. Tennessee is kind of the other 0:19:30.640 --> 0:19:34.520 end of the spectrum UM in the twenties. But and 0:19:34.720 --> 0:19:37.920 especially with UM, I mean with Tanna hill Um at quarterback. Now, 0:19:38.000 --> 0:19:40.080 they I do think that you may see a little 0:19:40.080 --> 0:19:43.280